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Wednesday July 25, 2012

.................................................
TradeStalker's
RBI Trader's Update
7 / 25 / 2012
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:30 pm eastern time, 7/25/2012

Things changed overnight, and instead of a lower opening the
ES popped up to the 1339.50-1340.25 resistant zone 10
minutes into trading and reversed. The ES sold off from
1339.50 to test 1330.50 before there was a bounce, but that
was sold into and the ES dropped to 1326.25 by 11 AM. The
move reversed from there and the ES bounced to 1332.25
before pulling back. That pullback held at 1329 updated
support and then finally broke out on the upside. The ES
rallied back to a lower high at 1338.75 by 1:38 PM, and then
a small pullback held at 1335.75 and the market traded in
that 3 point range for nearly an hour. A test of 1339.00 was
rejected around 2:37 PM and then that range broke on the
downside shortly after 3 PM. Once broken, 1336 turned into
resistance and a drop to 1330.50 followed. The market got
some footing in the last 10 minutes and the ES rallied back
to 1335.50 before settling.

We got the two-sided action that was expected for Wednesday,
for certain. The ES didn't like it up around the 1339 area,
and now there is a double top on the charts up there. That
1339-1340 area will need to be taken out if the market is
going to attempt to make any kind of upside move. As it
stands now, the market needs to hold around the last hour
low areas from Wednesday (initial support) to have a chance
to make a run back up there.

If that support isn't held, then it would open the door for
one last push lower before an oversold rally takes hold. If
the ES breaks under 1331.25-1330.50, and we cannot snap
right back, then it should not take out the 1323.00-1322.25
area by much without snapping right back if we are going to
get an oversold bounce start from lower levels. More likely,
a bounce should occur from around the 1327.00-1326.25
Wednesday low area if we are going to get a good rally
started. However, if that doesn't hold and the 1323.00-
1322.25 area is broken also, there could be a drop towards
the 1318 area before buying comes in.

If there isn't a break of the initial support, and there is
a breakout over the double top instead, then a pop up
towards the 1343.50-1344.50 area could be reversed if the
upside stalls out around that area. A pullback would need to
hold around the 1340-1339 area if there's going to be
further strength that eventually takes out that 1344 area.
If that 1343.50-1344.50 area pushed through, then we could
continue higher towards the 1347.75-1348.50 area before some
selling comes in.

***NOTE: Due to the webinar on Thursday night, there will
not be time to put together an update Thursday night. Also,
on Friday morning I have an appointment that will keep me
away until around noon Eastern time. My apologies. The next
nightly update will be sent on Sunday night.***

September 2012 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu2 / big contract =spu2
1335.75-1336.25
1339.50-1340.25
1343.50-1344.50
1347.75-1348.50

September 2012 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu2 / big contract =spu2
1331.25-1330.50
1327.00-1326.25
1323.00-1322.25
1318.50-1317.50

September 2012 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu2 / big contract = ndu2
2546.75-2548.00
2557.00-2558.50
2566.75-2568.25
2576.25-2578.50

September 2012 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu2 / big contract = ndu2
2539.50-2538.25
2530.25-2528.75
2516.50-2514.75
2504.50-2502.50

---------------------------

REMINDER:

Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:

http://www.tradestalker.com/members/

---------------------------

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Copyright (c) 2012 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.

www.TradeStalker.com
<http://www.TradeStalker.com>
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899

Disclaimer

The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.

We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************

 

 

 

Tuesday July 24, 2012

.................................................
TradeStalker's
RBI Trader's Update
7 / 24 / 2012
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:58 pm eastern time, 7/24/2012

A slightly higher open was instantly sold (1346.25 high)
and the market continued dropping until the ES reached
the 1335 area. The ES bounced back, but but it stalled
out 1 tick under 1340, and then sold off to 1326.00
shortly after noon. A bounce back to 1331.50 stalled out,
and the market rolled over again. The ES dropped to
1323.75 at 2:30 PM, and then bounced back quickly. That
bounce stopped at 1327.75, and then a pull back to test
the low occurred. The ES held at 1324.25, and then a run
up to 1332.75 followed that. The move stalled out, but a
pull back to new support at 1328.00 was able to hold, and
the ES rallied back to 1335.00 just before stocks closed.
After stocks closed, the ES dropped 6 points to 1329.00
just before settling.

Coming into the week I felt we had a significant top in
place, and could undergo a decent correction. Unless the
market is in a panic phase, and in bigger trouble than
anticipated, it should start to bounce back some time on
Wednesday or Thursday at the latest. It will be more than
anticipated if the 1303-1302 area is broken. If that
1303-1302 area is reached on Wednesday or Thursday, and
the market shows signs of turning from around that area,
it could set up a good trading on the long side. We'll
see how things look if the market sells off without far

After the close earnings reports have the market trading
lower as this is being written. If there isn't a bounce
from the 1323-1322 area on the ES, then we could see a
move down to the 1318 area before a bounce attempt
occurs. In any case, if there's going to be a decent
bounce from a lower open, the market should reverse in
the first 20-40 minutes of trading. There will need to be
a move back above 1330 that can stick, not turn right
back down, to attempt getting the market turned around.
If the ES can rally back and take out the 1328 area,
then hold above that of a pullback, then we can get in an
uptrend that could give a rally back towards the 1339-
1340 area.

If there is no turnaround in the early going, and the ES
takes out 1323-1322 and holds under that level, then we
should see a test of the 1318 area. If there's just a
bounce back to the 1323 area from that level that stalls
out, then they should go back down and test or break that
1318 area. If that happens then we could see the ES go
for the 1312 area or lower. If the market gets hit with a
drop down to the 1313-1312 area, and can either make a
reversal pattern there or base out, that should set up a
good trading on the long side. However if the ES breaks
through 1312 and doesn't turn right back up, the door
would be open for a drop down to the 1303-1302 area which
is major support. If that area doesn't hold, it could
cause a big flush out back towards the 1288-1284 area on
the ES over the next week or so.


September 2012 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu2 / big contract =spu2

1334.50-1335.50
1339.50-1340.25
1343.50-1344.00

September 2012 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu2 / big contract =spu2

1328.50-1327.75
1323.00-1322.00
1318.50-1317.50
1312.50-1311.75

September 2012 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu2 / big contract = ndu2

2562.50-2563.50
2574.50-2576.00
2586.00-2587.00

September 2012 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu2 / big contract = ndu2

2550.00-2548.50
2540.50-2538.50
2523.50-2521.75
2508.75-2507.50

---------------------------

REMINDER:

Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:

http://www.tradestalker.com/members/

---------------------------

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Copyright (c) 2012 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.

www.TradeStalker.com
<http://www.TradeStalker.com>
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899

Disclaimer

The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.

We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************

 

 

Monday July 23, 2012

.................................................
TradeStalker's
RBI Trader's Update
7 / 23 / 2012
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:55 pm eastern time, 7/23/2012

The ES open down almost 20 points on Monday, and it fell to
1332.00 about 25 minutes into trading. A bounce to 1335
failed, and then another pullback reached 1332.00 again and
turned up. After stalling at 1335, that was finally pushed
through and a bounce up to 1340.50 occurred. The ES churned
between 1340.50 and 1337.00, and then that 1340.50 was
pushed through and the ES reached the 1344.50
resistance/target. The ES pulled back from 1344.75 to
1341.00, and then the uptrend reasserted itself at 3 PM. The
ES rallied up to 1348.50 (1348.25-1347.50 prior support
zone) and then fell back 5 points to 1343.50 just before
settling.

The market put together an impressive rally from the 1333-
1332 updated support to the 1348 updated resistance area,
but the last 30 minutes was a bit telling for further
weakness ahead. There certainly wasn't broad participation
on the move back up, as declining issues outpaced advancing
issues by 3 to 1. Oddly, the closing Trin was below 1.00, so
the advancing volume was concentrated in a small number of
stocks. The big drop created a big pop in implied
volatility, as the VIX was up more than 25% at one point on
Monday. Weigh this all out, and it looks like we should have
better volatility at the least.

It looks like the ES would need to get back above 1345 on
Tuesday morning, along with the NQ getting back above 2583,
if there is going to be a bounce to test Monday's highs. The
market will be vulnerable, and likely will at least test the
initial support before any kind of bounce attempt occurs. If
that 1341.00-1340.25 area doesn't give a good bounce, then
odds are good that the ES is headed back towards the
1337.50-1336.75 area. If that area is broken through, then
we could retest Monday's low at 1332. If there is not a
reversal on a test of that area, then the market is having
another bad day, and would need to get its footing around
the 1328 area (at the lowest) if there is going to be a
decent countertrend bounce. If the ES cannot get back over
the 1332-1333 area on a bounce, then the market could be
headed 10 points below that before trying to bottom on
Tuesday.

If the ES is able to get above the 1345 area in the early
going, and not turn right back down, then there would be a
chance to test the 1348.00-1348.50 area again. I doubt we
see this on Tuesday morning, but if so then that should be
sold unless the market is turning very strong again. If a
move over that area is not quickly turned back down, then
it's possible to move on up to the 1352.50-1353.50 area
before the market comes under pressure again. If that's
taken out then the 1357-1358 area is strong resistance, and
there is a gap on the weekly chart at 1357.00. Don't count
on seeing that area on Tuesday, but if something happens to
send the market up there, it should be a very good shorting
opportunity.


September 2012 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu2 / big contract =spu2

1345 *minor early
1348.00-1348.50 *strong
1352.50-1353.50 *key area
1357.00-1358.00 *gap fill

September 2012 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu2 / big contract =spu2

1341.00-1340.25 *key
1337.50-1336.75 *strong
1332.50-1331.75 *major
1328.25-1327.50

September 2012 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu2 / big contract = ndu2

2583.00 *minor early
2590.00-2591.00 *strong
2602.00-2603.50 *key area
2612.75-2615.00 *gap fill

September 2012 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu2 / big contract = ndu2

2576.50-2575.50 *key
2567.50-2566.50 *strong
2555.50-2553.75 *major
2544.00-2542.50

---------------------------

REMINDER:

Real Time subscribers can view these updates, and also get
real time instant messages, on the web at this site:

http://www.tradestalker.com/members/

---------------------------

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Copyright (c) 2012 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.

www.TradeStalker.com
<http://www.TradeStalker.com>
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899

Disclaimer

The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.

We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************

 

Monday August 08, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
8 / 8 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:20 pm eastern time, 8/8/2011

The ES gapped down more than 33 points on Monday, right
at the last listed support at the 1163.25-1162.50 zone,
and from just one tick under that zone the ES ran up 16
points to 1178.25 in the first 10 minutes of trading.
That bounce was sold, and a trend down move was underway.
A drop down to 1147.50 followed, and then a fast rally up
to 1167.75 occurred. That was sold also, and that trend
down move continued until dropping hard down to 1115.25
on the ES. Another good rally up to 1148.75 followed, but
that was also sold in the market rolled over again. The
move down was basically trend down to 1110.00 on the ES
while the indexes closed on their lows.

The market is obviously oversold. After all, since the
closing highs on July 19 to Monday's close, the Dow has
lost 1914.56 points and SP500 cash lost 224.34 points on
a closing basis. price indicators should be oversold with
that movement. The internal gauges sure are oversold
across the board. In fact the McClellan Oscillator
reached -442 on Monday's close, a huge extreme for that
old time indicator. Sentiment had a huge blow-up on
Monday, as the VIX jumped 50% in one day to the 48 level.

The last 11 trading days have been "sell the bounces" for
the most part, as they refuse to stick due to strong
downside momentum. It's also because all of technical
damage that has been done. There are a lot of bottom
pickers stuck long at higher prices looking to get out.
So, despite the deep oversold condition the market
*still* needs to prove itself strong before things can
begin to change. We get the Fed decision on interest rate
policy and remarks are released at 2:15PM on Tuesday. If
the Fed has a way to change things, they need to show
their cards on Tuesday.

So, look to sell bounces under the initial resistance
areas early on Tuesday. The market ended Monday on its
lows so there should be eager sellers on the first decent
bounce when it stalls out. If there is a lower open
instead then the 1102.00-1100.50 area should be key
early. If there is no sign of a reversal back up from
that area, then more damage is done. IF there is a decent
rally off a low, it should stop after moving up about 20-
22 points on the ES. If there is a better move up, then a
run-up of 39-41 points off of the low should be as far as
the upside goes before a pullback. If there is a move up
of that magnitude, then a low should be in for a bit and
a good pullback that stalls/reverses should set up a
trade on the long side for a switch.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1149.00-1149.50 (pivotal)
1158.00-1158.75 (strong)
1166.50-1168.50
1177.50-1178.25 (major Tuesday)
1184.50-1185.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1109.50-1108.50
1102.00-1100.50 (key)
1096.00-1095.50
1088.00-1086.50
???

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2110.50-2111.50 (pivotal)
2122.50-2124.00 (strong)
2147.75-2149.25
2160.50-2161.75 (major Tuesday)


September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2030.00-2028.50
2017.75-2016.75 (key)
2008.00-2006.50
1994.50-1992.50
???

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Sunday August 07, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
8 / 7 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 8/7/2011

It was another bad week for the bulls last week, as the
market dropped to new lows for the year. On Thursday the
market was hit the hardest, as the Dow lost over 500 points
and the S&P 500 lost 60 points. On Friday the employment
data was a bit better than expected, and the ES opened up
about 13 points, but that move was sold and after five
minutes of trading the market rolled over again. A small
bounce started around 10 AM, but that didn't stick and the
ES dropped to 1163.25 by noon. The market reversed off of
that level with some gusto and the ES rallied up to reach
1210.00 before the market flattened out. A drop back down to
1184.75 occurred until the last 30 minutes of trading, and
then the market moved higher in very choppy action into the
close.

As I stated on Thursday, expect the volatility to pick up
and we certainly had that on Friday. The ES dropped 52.25
points from its 1215.50 early high to its 1165.25 low on
Friday. From there it rallied back 46.75 points to 1210.00
before stalling out. From there, a drop of 25.25 points down
to 1184.75 occurred until about 30 minutes left in trading.
From there a relatively small bounce of 14.50 points
occurred before the market closed. That is about 140 points
of travel just counting those swings. In fact, on Friday we
had moves of almost 5 points occur on a few one minute bars,
which really shows a jittery market looking for direction.

The market is deeply oversold, and we could have another big
rally at any time. However the market has gotten to a point
where it's about turning into "the better the bounce, the
better the shorting opportunity when it fizzles" the way it
is acting. And these aren't exactly normal conditions for
the market to undergo. That is the main reason for kind of
ignoring the deeply oversold short-term indicators, and
instead going with the price action and key resistance to
break instead.

Things can change over the weekend, but it looks like the
market will avoid trouble on Monday if it can hold above the
initial support areas. If those are broken, then a drop back
down towards the 1185.50-1184.50 area could be in the cards,
and should be key support on Monday. If that area is held on
a pullback, and the market turns up, then we could have
another good rally occur from there. If that area is broken
and not quickly reversed, then the market is back under
pressure and a move towards a Friday lows could be in the
cards. On the top side, if there is a bounce that rallies up
to test the initial resistance areas (or lower) and it
stalls out, then be ready for a decent sized pullback to
occur. However, if we do get that run up to test the 1212
area on the ES, and then a pullback can hold at or above the
1208 area, then another push higher should be in the cards.
If the ES gets up to that 1212 area, but a pullback shows no
sign of holding, or quickly reversing from that area, then
the downdraft should be back in gear for a move back to test
the 1200 area or maybe the lower.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1212.00-1212.50
1219.00-1219.50
1223.25-1224.00
1228.00-1229.00 *strong


September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1193.50-1193.00
1185.50-1185.00
1179.50-1178.50
1174.00-1173.50
1168.50-1168.00
1163.25-1162.50


September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2223.50-2224.50
2238.50-2239.50
2246.50-2247.50
2262.50-2264.25 *strong


September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2184.00-2182.50
2171.00-2170.00
2158.50-2157.50
2148.00-2146.75
2134.75-2134.00
2128.75-2127.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday August 04, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
8 / 4 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:56 pm eastern time, 8/4/2011

The ES open down more than 15 points on Thursday and kept
on going. A choppy trend down move two 1212.25 occurred
before noon, and then bounced back to the 1228 updated
resistance shortly before 1 PM. The market rolled back
over from there and they ES dropped to 1209.25 and then
bounced again. A little double top was made at 1219.50 on
the ES and then in the last hour the market headed down
again as they ES took out the 1200 level on the way to a
low at 1293.20 5c before the close.

The market has been oversold, but we stayed with the
downside momentum until something changed pricewise. On
Thursday the Dow lost more than 500 points and the S&P500
lost more 60 points. Prices are getting decimated as all
the bounces fail, and mostly at new dynamic resistance
areas. Right now it looks like the ES will need to get
back over the 1219.50 area and hold above that in order to
dent a downtrend on a very short-term basis.

On Friday we get the employment information before the
open. If there is going to be anything that can spark an
oversold rally, it will need to be a really good number.
If that occurs, then it's possible that we could see a
pretty good run on the upside. Even if that occurs, given
the recent damage and it being a Friday, I don't think
that a good bounce is going to stick. They could rally up
to the 1228 area and stall out, that should set up another
pullback.If a turn doesn't come from that area, then a
move up towards the 1233 area should turn the market back
if it is still weak.

If the number is not taken well on Friday morning, and the
market opens lower, then expect a reversal back up to
occur after about 60 to 90 minutes into the trading day.
If the market drops early and cannot turn around in that
timeframe, then we could be in for another bad day. If we
do get a reversal back around that timeframe, then a move
into the lunchtime trading could follow before the market
has another intraday pullback.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1210.50-1211.50
1219.00-1219.50
1228.00-1229.00
1234.50-1235.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1193.25-1192.50
1188.25-1187.50
1282.00-1181.00
trouble if broken
September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2228.50-2229.75
2246.00-2247.00
2262.50-2264.25
2274.50-2276.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1


2196.00-2295.00
2188.75-2188.00
2178.00-2176.50 major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Wednesday August 03, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
8 / 3 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:36 pm eastern time, 8/3/2011

A higher open was sold on Wednesday, and after
breaking/holding under 1250.50 the ES started its move to
down to 1230.25 about an hour into trading. A decent bounce
followed, but it didn't stick and a pullback followed.
However, once the 1242.50 level was cleared/ held, the
upside gathered momentum and took the ES to 1255.50 to make
a symmetrical move before pulling back. Buyers stepped to
the plate at 1246.50 with about 90 minutes left, and a run
up to the key 1258.00 level was reached just before the
close.

The market finally showed some signs of strength on
Wednesday. Still, the market has a lot of work to do to make
much upside progress. The 1258 zone which was key support
coming into Tuesday is now the first key hurdle above the
market to get over again. If it can do that, then the next
key area would be around the 1264-1265 area on the ES. On
the downside, there doesn't look to be a whole lot of risk
of buying a decent pullback unless the Wednesday action was
a one-day wonder.

The low on Wednesday was right at 11700 on the Dow cash and
just over a key area on the ES, so Wednesday's lows should
be a key as support areas now if they drop back down there
again. The market had a lot of downside momentum as it
dropped to new lows on Wednesday, and momentum tends to make
a high or low before price does. So, we could be seeing a
pretty good rally attempt over the next few days. However,
the odds are pretty good that this will not be a "V" type of
bottom. After this bounce runs its course, a pullback to
test the Wednesday lows should be down the road.

So, look for early weakness to be bought on Thursday,
especially if the initial support is tested and held. If we
get a pullback to that area, it should be bought if the
market is still big in itself out of a hole and is in decent
shape. If that area is broken, then we have a move down
towards the next support likely coming. On the other side of
the coin, if the ES pops up to the 1258.00-1258.50 area and
is rejected, then we should see a decent pullback in the
early going. If that happens to stop around the initial
support, then we can look for the market to turn around,
giving it a set on any shorts and a good buying opportunity
for another move back to the upside.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1
1258.00-1258.50
1264.00-1364.50 *key
1271.50-1273.00
1277.50-1278.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1
1246.75-1246.25
1243.00-1242.50
1238.00-1237.50
1233.00-1232.50
1230.75

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2314.50-2315.50
2327.25-2328.50 *key
2336.50-2338.00
2348.50-2350.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2297.00-2296.00
2290.50-2289.50
2279.75-2278.50
2268.25-2266.75
2253.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Tuesday August 02, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
8 / 2 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:56 pm eastern time, 8/2/2011

The ES opened lower, and turned up from the 1273.00 support
and bounced to the 1280.00 level before turning back down. A
pullback to 1273.00 then gave a bounce up to 1276.50, but
that failed and the ES dropped down to 1267.25 and made a
small bubble bottom. The ES barely got over 1270.50 (two
1271.00) but then quickly reversed and the market got hit
with more selling. The ES reached the 1258 major support
before a bounce occurred. The bounce reached at 1364.50
level and stalled out, and a drop down to test 1258
followed. Another bounce back up to 1364.50 also failed, and
the market headed lower from there. We were looking for a
lower low to be made by 3:30 PM, and that occurred as the
market continued to go trend down right into the close. The
ES reached 1246.75 in the final minutes of trading, closing
at its lowest level since April.

Off of the July rally highs the Dow cash lost 858 points,
the SP500 Cash lost 91 points, and the ES lost 95.25 points
on a closing basis. That's quite a drop over just a week and
a half. There's little doubt that the market is oversold
pricewise short-term. In addition to that, the closing Trin
was a 4.50 on Tuesday, a sign of capitulation. It also was
the 5th day in a row that the Trin closed above 1.10. Other
short term internal gauges are at deep oversold territory.
These normally set up a decent bounce. The fly in the
ointment is that the market has had a lot of technical
damage done over the last eight days, and the market has
good downside momentum. The market needs something positive
to come out to spark some buying that can stick. I'm not
sure what will bring that about on Wednesday.

The way the market acted on Tuesday, it will be a surprise
if there is not follow-through selling. If there is follow-
through selling, then the 1244.00-1243.50 area needs to
hold, or be quickly reversed if broken, if there is going to
be a snap back rally in the early going. If that doesn't
occur from that zone, then we could drop down to that
1238.50-1237.50 area if there is some more "get me out" type
of selling. On the other side of the coin, if there isn't
follow-through selling early, but instead the market pops up
on the open, then that should set up another shorting
opportunity, especially if the ES moves up to tag the
initial resistance area and then reverses back down.

After the early action, stay updated via instant message.
Many are not using this service, which comes at no extra
cost with your subscription. We have been able to pinpoint a
good number of bounce highs and short-term bottoms that
can't be acted upon unless it's by instant message. All you
need to do is log-in at this link:
http://www.tradestalker.com/RBIchat.htm
Aside from that, I will try to send three intra-day updates
to the member site during the day.


September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1258.00-1258.50
1264.00-1364.50 *key
1271.50-1273.00 *major Wednesday

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1246.75
1244.00-1243.50 *key early
1238.50-1237.50 *strong
1233.00-1232.00
1228.00-1227.50 *major

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2302.75-2303.25
2316.25-2317.00 *key
2327.25-2328.50 *major Wednesday

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2285.75
2282.75-2282.00 *key early
2270.00-2269.00 *strong
2262.50-2260.50
2250.75-2248.50 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Monday August 01, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
8 / 1 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:36 pm eastern time, 8/1/2011

The ES gapped up 15 points on the open on Monday, and from
1304.58 a 29.00 point drop down to 1275.50 followed. After
reaching that level, the first bounce to 1286.50 was sold,
and after another dip a bounce to 1285.50 was sold. The
market rolled over again and stayed in trend down mode until
reaching 1270.25 around 12:30 PM. The market turned up and
ground its way higher to 1277.00, and then a pullback to
1272.25 followed. Buying came in around 2:30 PM and the
market went into rally mode. The 1276.50 level was exceeded
and held, and they moved up to 1283.50 by 2:30 PM. The ES
pulled back to 1279.00, and then quickly reversed that
support area, before running up to the 1285.00 level in the
last 10 minutes of stock trading. A drop back down to
1276.00 occurred as the futures dropped to close about 5
points under fair value.

The market action is still poor, but there was a sign of
firming up with the rally in the last 2 hours on Monday. The
only potential plus technically was that the reversal by the
VIX gave 3 buy signals out of a possible 5 at Monday's
close. Also, the SP500 cash closed just over its 200 day
moving average. Aside from that, things are oversold but
backed out of extremes on some indicators on Monday.

On Tuesday we should see another 2 sided trading day. Early
weakness needs to stay over/ at the initial support if there
is going to be a chance for a snap-back rally attempt in the
early going. If that occurs, or there is early strength
instead, look for good resistance at the initial resistance
areas. If those are reached and not rejected, then a move
back up towards the 1288.00-1288.50 zone could be in the
cards. If that happens and then a pullback cannot hold the
1283.00-1282.50 area on a pullback, then a roll over to test
the 1277.00-1276.50 zone would be key support to avoid a
move to the 1273.00-1272.00 zone, or possibly take out
Monday's lows before reversing back up.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1284.50-1285.00
1288.00-1288.50 *strong
1292.00-1292.50
1297.50-1298.25

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1277.00-1276.50 *pivotal
1273.00-1272.00
1270.25-1269.50
1266.00-1265.25
1258.50-1257.50 *major in case

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2352.50-2353.50
2358.50-2360.25 *strong
2367.50-2368.50
2380.50-2382.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2334.75-2333.75 *pivotal
2325.50-2324.50
2320.75-2319.50
2311.75-2310.50
2296.75-2294.50 *major in case

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Sunday July 31, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 31 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 7/31/2011

The market was hit with selling every day last week, as all
the bounces failed to stick. The market opened lower on
Monday and then the ES tested the 1340 level which had
caused problems on the Thursday and Friday before. That
level was tested again on Tuesday morning, and then it
dropped all day on Wednesday we had a big down day, with the
Dow losing almost 200 points and then on Thursday morning
the market started an oversold bounce. That fizzled out
around the lunchtime trading, and then the market sold off
into the close. On Friday the ES gapped down over 12 points
and kept going until the ES reached the 1278.50-1277.50
major support zone and the S&P 500 cash dropped just under
its 200 day moving average, and then the market turned back
up. The ES rallied to just over 1300 and then turned back
down. That pullback held at 1289.50, and then another bounce
followed. The 1297 level on the ES held the market back, and
then a symmetrical drop down to 1285.75 held and the market
firmed into the close.

Things could change on Sunday night depending on the budget
deal, but at the moment the technical indicators are getting
very oversold enough to begin looking for a decent bounce.
We have had a closing Trin above 1.10 for three days in a
row, and also the three-day thrust has closed below the -.50
"normal" oversold level for three days in a row. The
measures of up to down volume are at the extremes also. In
addition to that, the VIX closed at 25.25 on Friday. It is
on a couple of buy signals. Last, but certainly not the
least, is the fact that the ES reversed from what should be
a key area on Friday morning. That may be tested again, but
the market acted like it had a good bid down there and it
will likely be bought if it's tested, or slightly exceeded,
if there is another push down. If it doesn't, then the
market is in bigger trouble than it appears.

So, things might change before the Monday open but it looks
like a decent bounce should begin soon. Whether or not it is
sustainable will need to be judged if we do get a rally
underway. As long as the 1278 area on the ES is defended, or
better yet stays above the initial support on a pullback,
then a move back to the 1302.50-1303.00 area could be in the
cards. We have had good volatility lately, so if it is more
than that, then a move up to around the 1308 area would be
next. I would think that a fast move to that area that
stalls out should bring a pretty good, fast, pullback if the
volatility is going to continue. So, be on your toes on both
sides as we we'll likely see yet another day of two-sided
action where the bounces (no matter how impressive at the
time) still continue to fail.

Sorry, I don't have the NQ numbers for Monday. I will have
them for Tuesday however. My apologies if you trade the NQ.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1297.00-1298.00
1302.25-1303.00
1307.75-1308.75
1311.75-1312.50


September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1286.75-1285.75
1282.00-1281.25
1278.00-1277.25
1272.50-1272.00


September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1




September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

 

Thursday  July 28, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 28 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:35 pm eastern time, 7/28/2011

The lower open was reversed about 15 minutes in on
Thursday, after gyrating around 1300 on the ES, and the
oversold rally started. It reversed off 1313.00, and a
test was quickly rejected, setting up a shorting
opportunity on the 123 top. The ES dropped through 1307
and held, giving the drop to 1298 as noted and reached the
next zone at 1295.00-1294.50 before firming a bit into the
close.

On Friday we get the GDP before the open, and then the
Chicago PMI 15 minutes in, and then Consumer Sentiment 25
minutes into the trading day. The market has had a rough
week this week, on the heels of last Friday's selloff. We
have quite a few oversold indicators so the worst of this
selling may be close to being over on the short-term.
Further pullback before this occurs is still likely the
way the market acted again on Thursday. However, if the
market gets low enough (especially near the 1285 area on
the S&P 500 cash, the 200 day moving average) and then
turned back up, that could be the start of a rally that is
sustainable.

So, Friday should be similar to the rest of the trading
days this week, giving us a two-sided action. If there is
early strength that stalls out, especially near the
1302.50 area early on Friday, that should set up another
trade on the short side. On the other side of the coin,
the ES did stop at the 1295 support area on Thursday. If
that is held in the first 25 minutes of trading than a pop
back up to that 1302.50 area should be in the cards.
However, if there is follow-through selling that breaks
that 1295 area, then a drop down to test the 1291.75-
1291.25 area will need to be defended to avoid seeing the
S&P 500 cash test its 200 day moving average. If the
market gets down there and shows signs of stalling out or
makes a bottoming pattern, then look for that kind of
action to set up a trade on the long side. If we get that
set up and the market rallies, it needs to have some gusto
behind it instead of being tentative and finding sellers
at the first sign of a stall. They moved back over the
1300 level from down there would be a positive for the
short-term.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1302.25-1302.75
1306.00-1307.00
1312.50-1313.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1295.00-1294.50
1291.75-1291.25
1286.50-1285.50
1278.50-1277.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2374.25-2375.25
2384.50-2385.50
2397.50-2398.25

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2365.75-2365.50
2354.00-2352.50
2344.00-2342.50
2328.00-2324.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Wednesday July 27, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 27 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 9:55 pm eastern time, 7/27/2011

The ES gapped down 5 points on Wednesday's open and didn't
look back. A drop down to 1307.25 occurred just over an
hour into trading. From there, a feeble bounce back to
1316.25 on the ES lasted until just before noon. The
market lost its steam, and rolled over again and went into
trend down mode until washing out to 1299.50 with just
over 30 minutes to trade. The activity picked up a bit at
that juncture. Buying/short covering gave a bounce back to
1304.75, but that failed and the ES dropped back to a
token lower low at 1299.25 with about 9 minutes left in
stock trading. The bounce back two 1303 also failed, and
just as stocks closed the futures dropped fast down to the
1298 .00 level. That was right at the 1298-1297 zone that
was our target for this move, but it looks like that might
need readjusted given Wednesday's action. The Dow lost
about 199 points while the S&P 500 dropped 27 points. The
Nasdaq 100 dropped a 62 points on the day.

Some of the short-term internal gauges are getting to
oversold extremes. In addition, the VIX has made quite a
move to the upside, and a reversal from these levels could
give us several VIX buy signals. This is also the best
time of the month, historically, for the market. So the
market has some things that are short-term bullish, and
will need to be made good on Thursday or the market has
some problems.

Actually, it still does have problems. When we get these
oversold extremes at lows, the market usually has one or
two days to get a good rally in gear or the bigger picture
begins to change. Right now, the market will still be
under pressure unless the ES can get back over the 1305
area and hold that on a pullback. The market is still
vulnerable unless that occurs, so if there is an early
bounce that fails near the initial resistance areas, then
the downside trend will continue. However, if the market
does take out the initial resistance and hold that on the
pullback, then the next hurdles would be around the 1311
area on the ES and the 12,400 level on the Dow cash. Those
are the key areas on the upside on Thursday.

If the market opens higher on Thursday, expect the first
bounce to fail as long as the ES does not break over the
initial resistance and hold that area. The market will
probably want to pullback a bit further on the downside
before we get any kind of sustainable buying. The way the
market acted on Wednesday, those trapped in long positions
from above will likely be looking to get out into early
strength. If that occurs, and then the market drops a bit
further and gets its footing, then we can see a decent
attempt to rally occur. On the other side of the coin, if
there is a lower open on Thursday, then look for a
reversal back up from the initial support areas (or just
below) to set up a trade on the long side. Just don't
overstay your welcome on any long trades until this market
can prove itself strong.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1305.00-1305.50
1310.50-1311.50 and 12400 Dow Cash
1315.75-1316.50
1321.50
1325.50-1326.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1298.00-1297.25
1295.00-1294.50
1290.75-1290.25
1286.50-1285.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2367.50-2368.50
2382.50-2384.25 (12400 Dow Cash)
2395.50-2396.50
2413.50
2417.50-2418.50


September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2357.00-2356.00
2348.00-2346.50
2339.00-2337.50
2330.00-2328.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Tuesday July 26, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 26 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:46 pm eastern time, 7/26/2011

After a flat open, the ES sold off for the first 40
minutes and reached 1325.50 before turning back up. The
bounce off that low reached 1332.75, which was just
under our 1333 new resistance, and there was a small
reaction as ES backed off to 1329.50. Another bounce
stopped right at 1332.75 again and then a pullback to
1329.00 followed. The market held its ground and turned
back up, this time getting to 1335.00 before stalling
out. A small pullback followed, and then a bounce to a
lower high was reversed, setting up a 123 top and the
market turned back down. The pressure was on when the
ES broke under 1332 and held on bounce, and the ES
dropped back to 1325.75 and closed the day right around
the morning lows.

NOTE: I will be away in the morning on Wednesday,
and will not be able to do any intraday updates
until the early afternoon. As usual, most of the
messages will be sent via the instant message
webpage on our site.

On Tuesday we had a bit of a double top as ES turned
down from a slightly higher intraday high in the
afternoon. By the close a double bottom was formed. A
break of this 1335 on top or 1325 on bottom is needed
to out of this range. Even if that occurs, I would
expect no more than a 3 point move on the ES above
Tuesday's high or below Tuesday's low before the market
makes another turn. That unless the market wants to
unwind on the downside. Indicators are slightly
oversold, and a lower open that rehearses from around
the 1323.00-1322.50 area should set up a good trade on
the long side. If that doesn't work out for an early
trade on Wednesday, then wait for the first bounce to
run out of steam to set up a shorting opportunity. The
market still looks tentative on bounces, so unless
there is a good trend up move going (preferably from a
lower open that rehearses, or getting over 1329 and
holding) be on alert for trend reversals. It happened a
number of times on Tuesday and likely will begin on
Wednesday unless the market is breaking down.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1329.25-1330.00
1334.50-1335.50
1337.00-1337.50
1342.50-1343.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1323.00-1322.25
1319.75-1318.50
1313.00-1312.25

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2427.00-2428.00
2335.00-2436.00
2446.50-2448.50
2454.50-2456.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2320.00-2318.50
2411.50-2410.50
2398.25-2396.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Monday July 25, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 25 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 7/25/2011

The ES gapped down more than 12 points on Monday's
open, and it found a low at 1326.75 and turned up in
the first 15 minutes of trading. A trend up move, with
the slow choppy grind higher, took the ES up to 1340.25
shortly after 1PM, and then the market pulled back. The
shallow pullback was to the 1337.50 support, then
turned back up to test of the 1330.75, (and the ES
missed the high by just .50 points) setting up a 123
top right around 2:30PM. The ES dropped down to 1333.50
with 30 minutes to go, and then bounced back to the
1336 resistance area. After poking over that level by
one tick, the ES turned back down dropping to 1333.00
just before stocks closed. After stocks closed, the ES
popped up to 1337.00 and then turned back down on the
way to a low at 1333.00 before settling.

The upside certainly appears limited at this juncture.
On Tuesday we get the consumer confidence data and new
home sales number out 30 minutes into the trading day.
Technically it looks like that unless the 1337.00-
1337.50 area on the ES is exceeded early on Tuesday,
and then holds that area on a pullback, the market will
stay in a weak state. At some point however, the market
should fall far enough where a decent bounce should
occur.

That should be the case if the ES drops down to the
1328.00-1327.50 area (or especially down to the
1323.00-1322.25 area) and gets its footing by stalling
out or forming a bottom pattern. That's what it looks
like it will take to get a decent rally attempt going
on Tuesday. Monday we had two-sided action after a big
gap down open, and would expect another two-sided day
where buyers back off if the ES gets to the 1340 area,
or just a bit above that. If buying doesn't come in on
a test of lower levels (especially the 1323-1322 area)
then things will have changed short-term. Unless/until
that occurs, bounce should fail so focus should be
mostly on the short side.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1337.00-1337.50
1342.50-1343.50
1347.75-1348.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1332.25-1331.50
1328.00-1327.50
1323.00-1322.25
1319.75-1318.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2428.50-2430.00
2437.50-2438.50
2446.50-2448.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2320.00-2318.50
2411.50-2410.50
2400.50-2398.75
2390.75-2389.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Sunday July 24, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 24 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 7/24/2011

The market dropped last Monday, and got itself into an
oversold state, but the upside surely was more than I
thought. The ES had big days on Tuesday and Thursday,
reaching the 1343.50 level on Thursday. On Friday the market
had an "inside day" as it traded within the high and low
made on Thursday. The ES dropped from 1341.75 on the open
down to 1332.75 (which was just above the 1332.50-1331.50
support area) and got itself turned back up. However, the
rally was over by 1 PM and then the ES traded in a narrow
range going into the last hour. A 4 point drop down to
1338.50 occurred, but then the ES rallied back to the
1342.50 level again before backing off of that into
settlement.

The market has acted like it is running out of steam, with
buyers not wanting to get caught long had a top. On each dip
though, the buyers have been coming back to push prices
higher. The market had itself getting into an overbought
status but backed off of that a bit with the Friday action.
However, it's not good when the market stalls out in trades
in a narrow range when making a high for the move. Unless
the ES can get over the 1342.50-1343.50 area and stick
(giving a breakout of this range to the upside), the market
appears vulnerable for a decent pullback here.

If that resistance area is cleared, but the move is reversed
from around the 1348 area after a short covering rally
stalls out on the ES, then a drop back to the 1342 area
would be key to hold. If we get that kind of action, and the
market reverses and takes out the 1342 area to the downside,
then it will set up a topping pattern with a good amount of
downside in the cards. On the flip side, the pressure should
be on if the initial support areas are broken and not
quickly reversed, per usual of late. If we get a drop to
test that area, and buyers keep their hands in their pockets
and don't turn the market right back again, then things are
changing short-term. A drop down to the 1332.50-1331.50 area
would be next, and would be key on Monday. If that area is
not defended, or we just get a feeble bounce back towards
the 1338 area that stalls out, then a move back towards the
1328 area will likely be in the cards for a short-term
target. If that area is reached, and not turned around, then
we have a few days of downside action to contend with early
next week.

So, beware of another turn down from the 1342.50-1343.50
area on Monday. A pullback is due, and if it doesn't start
from that area, then a move up to the 1348 area is possible,
but that will likely be sold. If the 1339.00-1338.50 area is
broken, then chances are that the market is getting soft and
lower prices are ahead. If that occurs, bounces should be
sold under the 1342.50 area then on Monday.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1342.50-1343.50
1348.00-1348.50
1353.50-1354.50


September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1339.00-1338.50
1335.00
1332.50-1331.50
1328.00-1327.50
1323.00-1322.00


September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2429.75-2431.50
2439.50-2440.50
2448.75-2450.25


September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2420.50-2418.75
2407.50
2399.00-2398.25
2392.00-2390.75
2384.50-2382.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday July 21, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 21 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:56 pm eastern time, 7/21/2011

The ES gapped up more than 8 points on Thursday, then pulled
back to 1326.50 to fill the gap on the daily chart. The
market turned up there and rallied strong to 1341.50 on the
ES. A pullback to 1334.50 followed, then a move up to a high
at 1343.50 came on more news on the Budget / Debt issue.
That was sold, then for the last 2+ hours the ES traded
between 1343 and 1339 and then the futures rallied into the
close.

The market appears to be near a turning point. The narrow
range sets the market up for a reversal if the 1339.00-
1338.50 area on the ES is broken on Friday. Either that, or
a higher open that reverses and breaks down through the 1342
area and does not reverse back up quickly. That would be the
better odds trade on the short side. However, even if that
plays out, the initial support still needs broken to get
anything going on the downside. The market could start a
transition to the downside if this occurs.

There is no economic data out on Friday, but there are other
things that can be market movers on Friday. Look for early
strength to be sold in the first 90 minutes at the latest if
there is going to be a reversal lower. If a pullback holds
at the 1339.00-1338.50 area (tests and quickly starts back
up) then still nothing bad happens and there's an outside
chance of a little melt-up move towards the 1353.50-1354.50
area on the ES. But, IF that happens and then the market
reverses it could be a start of another good sized pullback.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1343.00-1343.75
1348.00-1348.50
1353.50-1354.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1339.00-1338.50
1332.50-1331.50
1328.00-1327.50
1323.00-1322.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2410.50-2411.50
2418.00-2418.50
2424.75-2426.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2396.50-2395.75
2392.00-2390.75
2384.50-2382.50
2374.50-2372.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday July 20, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 20 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:16 pm eastern time, 7/20/2011

Before the open I instant messaged that "this gap up will be
sold", and the ES popped up to 1326.75 and dropped to 1319.26
before noon. A bounce back double topped at 1326.00 and
reversed, giving a drop to 1320.50 before the close.

The indicators are no longer oversold, plus we got 1 VIX
sell signal on Wednesday. The ES double topped at the 1336
area and closed poorly, a bearish signal. On Thursday we get
the Jobless Claims before the the open, and then the Philly
Fed and Leading Indicators released at 10 AM.

As long as the 1324 level, or more importantly the 1326 area
on the ES is not cleared/ held on a dip, the market is in
for a decent sized pullback. A higher open would be a gift
short. If there is a big down open, a short covering bounce
can occur in the first 90 minutes or so. If that happens, a
bounce to the 1320 area would then be the first good
resistance for a turn back down. Bounces shouldn't stick
unless the market gets to a lower level were there is
support and a stall/ reversal occurs, and then the market
gets upside momentum and gets through the 1320.50 area on
the ES and holds that area. Don't count on that on Thursday.
A move to the 1313-1312 area on the ES will likely be seen
before any kind of decent bounce occurs, maybe as low as the
1308.50-1307.50 area.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1323.50-1324.00
1326.75-1328.00
1331.50-1332.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1320.50-1320.00
1316.50-1315.50
1312.50-1311.50
1308.25-1307.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2386.50-2388.25
2393.75-2394.50
2408.50-2410.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2381.00-2380.00
2370.75-2369.75
2364.00-2362.50
2356.00-2354.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday July 19, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 19 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 4:52 pm eastern time, 7/19/2011

Due to illness there will be no update tonight.
Next update via instant message on Wednesday.
Please accept our apologies

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday July 18, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 18 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:59 pm eastern time, 7/18/2011

The market opened lower on Monday, then the ES bounced from
1303.50 up to the 1308 area that was given as resistance
before the open, and then the market rolled over. After
reaching 1301.50, we gave a resistance at 1304.00-1305.00,
and that 1304.00 level was nailed and then the market sold
off again reaching 1296.25 on the ES. A bounce then stopped
at the 1300.25 level, just below the 1300.50 updated
resistance, and then a drop to a lower low at 1294.25
followed. A bounce from there back to the 1298 new
resistance occurred and sold off again, reaching 1291.25
shortly before noon. Buying came in and the ES moved up to
up to the 1299 level, which was tested three times before
finally turning down and going to the 1296.50-1295.50
updated support zone. From 1295.50, the ES turned back up
and a move to the 1301.25 level occured. Then the 1297 area
held on pullbacks in the last hour, and the ES moved up to
1301.50 before backing off when stocks closed.

The market has a lot of work to do to get going on the
upside, but on the other side of the coin the deep pullbacks
are finding buyers when the selling stalls out. The market
is oversold, and the VIX has jumped around and is still on
to buy signals. Also, the closing Trin is an oversold state.
My RBI oscillator, and a number of other indicators have
dipped into pretty deep oversold conditions. So there may
not be a whole lot on the upside before a move stalls out.
But, on the downside, it doesn't look like the market will
accelerate lower unless there is an outside event or there
is a another break/hold under the 1298 area on the ES.

As it looks right now, if there is early strength that
reverses from the 1302.50-1303.50 area on Tuesday it should
set up a shorting opportunity for a pullback. On the
downside, as long as that 1298.00-1297.50 area is held on a
pullback, then the move can continue. If the ES is able to
get back over the 1302.50-1303.50 area and hold, then things
should look pretty good. But as it looks right now, we could
see a pretty volatile trading range as traders sort out the
damage done on Monday.

So, there should be two sided action on Tuesday. Don't be
surprised if it hasn't upside bias, at least for awhile. As
stated above, a higher open that reverses from resistance
should set up a short trade in the early going. If we get
the opposite, and there isn't early drop, that should set up
a buying opportunity, especially if it's near that 1398.00-
1397.25 area and the ES reverses back up. If the market
opens down there and doesn't turn up from that area, that we
could test the Monday lows, or at least have a decent
pullback towards that area. If that happens, and the move
stalls out, then expect a good rally back out of the hole of
about 10 points or so on the ES.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1302.50-1303.50
1307.50-1308.25
1311.75-1312.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1298.00-1297.50
1293.00-1292.50
1291.25
1288.50-1287.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2345.00-2346.00
2351.75-2352.50
2360.50-2362.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2335.50-2334.50
2324.00-2322.50
2318.75
2314.50-2313.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Sunday  July 17, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 17 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 7/17/2011

The market had a rough week last week, as the market sold
off into Thursday. On Friday morning, a higher open was sold
and the ES traded down to the 1303.00 level in the first
hour of trading. The market got its footing and bounced back
to the 1312.50 level, which was at resistance. That move
stalled out, and the ES dropped back to test that 1303 low.
That level is able to hold that 1303.50 level, and in the
last hour buying and short covering started and the market
rallied to make slightly higher highs just before the close.

The market appears like it is ready to attempt another
relief rally. Some of the internal gauges got very oversold
on Thursday, and are beginning to turn up just a bit. Also,
at Friday's close we have three out of a possible five VIX
buy signals. So both the internals and the sentiment are
beginning to turn, and that should help keep the market
afloat. As long as the 1303.00-1302.00 area is held on a
pullback, then the market will stay out of trouble on
Monday.

This could set up two sided action with an upside bias on
Monday, so if there is early strength on Monday (especially
a move towards the 1319 area that stalls/reverses) it should
set up a selling opportunity. On the flip side, if the
market opens lower but can get turned around from near the
initial support areas, that should set up a trade on the
long side.

After the early action plays out, the bulls should be in
charge as long as there is not another drop down to the
1303-1302 area. That shouldn't be seen again on Monday,
otherwise a breakdown towards the 1298 area on the ES could
still be in the cards. If the market holds together however,
and can bounce from the initial support areas and then move
up and take out the Friday high, then we could still see a
move back towards the 1323.50-1324.00 area that gave the
market trouble last week. If that is poked over, then the
1328 area should be strong resistance if there is an
oversold bounce. If that is reached, a pullback at least
should be expected. If the market gets up there, but shows
no signs of a pullback, then a back up towards the 1332-1333
area could be in the cards this week.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1315.00-1315.50
1318.75-1319.50
1323.50-1324.00
1327.25-1328.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1310.00-1309.50
1303.00-1302.00
1298.00-1297.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2358.00-2358.75
2364.50-2365.25
2374.50-2375.50
2381.75-2382.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2347.50-2346.50
2332.75-2331.50
2324.00-2323.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday July 13, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 13 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 7/13/2011

***NOTE: There will be no update for tomorrow evening***


The market opened higher on Wednesday, as the ES reached
1318.25 before pulling back. That pullback held at 1314.00,
and then the market took off to the upside. A good rally up
to the 1326.50-1327.00 zone on the ES followed, and then the
move stalled out. A little pop up to 1327.75 was sold just
before noon, and then the market pulled back. The first dip
held at the 1323.75 level, and then a bounce up to the
1326.50 level failed and then the market started a trend
down move to the 1310.50 level with 15 minutes left in stock
trading. That was Tuesday's closing range, and the unchanged
level for the day, and a small bounce back to 1314.25
occurred just before the close.


In the Tuesday night update it was stated that we could get
an oversold bounce, but that bounces should still set up the
better opportunities, and that sure was the case on
Wednesday. From top to bottom the ES dropped 17.25 points
into the close on Wednesday. This still is a market that is
acting horribly. The reversal and close below the 1312 level
again keeps the pressure on. A day like Wednesday put a lot
of buyers under pressure. It just builds more resistance to
push through to get anything going on the upside. Even if
they do get a move higher, the buyers are likely going to be
holding those positions if there's any sign of a turn back
down.


So, on Thursday stick with selling bounces. A drop back down
below 1300 still may be in the cards. First, however, we'll
need to see how the ES handles the 1308.50-1308.00 area that
was tested on Tuesday. If there is a move under that level,
and it is not quickly reversed back to the upside (and then
held on a pullback) then a move down to the 1298 area could
be in the cards before this selloff is over. If they get
down to the 1298 area on the ES, we should see the market
get turned around, unless things are really unwinding to the
downside. In order to get out of trouble on Thursday, it
looks like the ES needs to get back over the 1312 area and
hold above that. Even if that spurs a rally, a move back
towards the Wednesday highs will still likely be sold into.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1
1317.50-1318.00
1321.00-1321.50
1327.75-1328.25
1333.00-1334.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1
1311.50-1310.50
1308.75-1308.00
1305.50-1305.00
1298.50-1297.75

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2357.50-2358.25
2363.00-2363.75
2371.50-2372.50
2380.75-2382.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2343.00-2342.25
2338.75-2337.75
2333.00-2332.50
2324.50-2323.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

Tuesday July 12, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 12 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:26 pm eastern time, 7/12/2011

The ES opened down about 6 points on Tuesday, and by
10AM the ES reached 1310.75 and turned back up. A
bounce took the ES up to test the late Monday high at
1319.50, then selling came in and a drop back to
1313.50 occurred before the Fed minutes were released.
After the release, the ES popped up to 1317.00, then
made a small dip back to 1315.50, and then turned up
and rallied to a 1323.25 high. Per last night's update,
we expected a reversal from the 1323.50 area, and the
market obliged. A break/hold under 1320 on the ES kept
the pressure on, and per our intraday message the ES
went back down to test the 1313-1312 zone. The ES
reached 1313.75 with 45 minutes to go and stock
trading. Buying/short covering gave a pop up to the
1317.50 level (just under the 1318 new resistance), and
being rejected the selling continued. The grind lower
off of the 1323-1324 zone took the ES down to test the
1308.50 level with 10 minutes left in stock trading,
and then the market barely budged higher into the
close.

The short-term indicators are getting oversold, but not
to a screaming oversold state just yet. The ES was able
to stay over the 1312 support for most of the day on
Tuesday, but made little progress with the exception of
the bounce up to the 1323.50 level from where a
reversal was deemed a possible. That 1312 level was
taken out late in the day, and the 1308.50
area was reached. The reversal from 1323.25 was bearish
enough, but the break and close below 1312 on the ES
just keeps the pressure on for now.

On Wednesday, we could see an oversold rally attempt to
come from lower prices. However, for now selling the
bounces should still be the better odds trade. It's
still possible that the ES drops down to the 1298 area
before getting a decent bounce attempt. In any case,
just to take some pressure off, the ES will need to get
above the 1313.75-1314.50 initial resistance, and then
hold at/above 1312 on a pullback in order to get
anything going on the upside. If that occurs, then the
1317.50 area should be hard to get over and stay there.
The market should fail there if it is still weak. If
there is no sign of a turn back down from that area,
then the Wednesday high area at 1323.25-1324.00 will be
a key area to get through. A move back to that area
should be sold, or else the market will be digging out
of its hole. If there is a good-sized rally on
Wednesday, the 1327 area should not be cleared/held. If
the market happens to get back up there, and the move
stalls out, it would set up another good selling
opportunity.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1313.75-1314.50 key early
1317.50
1323.25-1324.00 major Wed
1326.50-1327.00 strong

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1308.75-1308.00 key early
1305.50-1305.00
1298.00-1297.50 major Wed
1292.50-1291.50 s.t. major

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2348.50-2350.00 key early
2354.25
2363.75-2365.00 major Wed
2368.75-2369.50 strong

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2340.00-2339.00 key early
2334.50-2333.75
2324.00-2422.50 major Wed
2315.50-2314.50 s.t. major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday July 11, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 11 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 8:16 pm eastern time, 7/11/2011

The ES gapped down 18.75 points on Monday and reached the
1317.75-1316.50 area (where we took profits on the other
half of our put position) on the way to a low at 1314.25
before making a bounce attempt. That bounce stalled and
reversed after reaching the 1320.50 resistance area (1320.25
was the bounce high), setting up a short, and a drop to a
lower low at 1313.50 followed. The new updated resistance
was at the 1317.25-1317.75 zone, and that bounce failed
right at the 1317.50 level and then resumed the downtrend.
The 1315.50 level turned into new trend down resistance, and
that was tested several times before the ES dropped to its
low for the day at 1311.75. With about 10 minutes left in
stock trading, buyers and short covering gave the market a
lift as the ES rallied back towards the 1320 level just
before the close.

The VIX jumped more than 15% on the close on Monday. There
is a small gap on the VIX at the 19.10-19.17 area, so if
there is early weakness and the VIX gets to that area and
turns down, it would signal that the market is turning a bit
bullish intraday. A closing Trin over 5.00 on Monday shows
capitulation also. Intermediate term, the indicators have
begun to roll over. The short-term indicators are just now
dipping into oversold territory.

Monday was a basic trend down day, until the last 15 minute
flurry to the upside. On Tuesday we should see a two-sided
day, with moves in both directions. We get the FED Minutes
at 2 PM, and that ought to help give us some more
volatility. In any case, the market did bounce back into the
close. So, for now, it looks like a drop down to test
Monday's low areas (especially the 2352-2351 area on the NQ)
would need to hold. That could be a bottom very short-term.
If 1312 on the ES and that 2352-2351 area on the NQ are
tested again, the market needs to turn around fast. If not,
then a drop down towards the 1308.50-1308.00 area on the ES
should be in the cards.

So, look to sell into early strength as soon as the upside
stalls and/or reverses. If the market is in bullish mode
then the first pullback should stay above the initial
support levels. That would be the spot to exit shorts and
look for a sign of strength to set up a quick trade on the
long side. However, if that initial support is broken then
back down to Monday's lows which should be key. If those are
broken then the next support will need to be quickly
reversed keep the market from another sharp drop. If it can
pull that off, then that reversal could set up a good rally.
On the up side, that 1320 area on the ES should be key
early, and will be reversed if the market is weak. If the
reversal doesn't come from there, then we could see a turn
back down from the 1323.50 area. If there is no sign of a
reversal from there, then a move up towards the Monday high
areas could be seen before the move shows any sign of
backing off.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1320.00-1320.50
1323.00-1323.50 *key
1326.50-1327.00 *strong
1332.50-1333.25

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1315.75-1315.00
1312.00-1311.50 *key
1308.50-1308.00 *strong
1305.50-1305.00
1298.00-1297.50 *major Tues
1293.00-1292.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2368.75-2369.50
2374.75-2375.75 *key
2384.50-2385.50 *strong
2395.75-2396.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2360.00-2358.50
2352.00-2351.25 *key
2344.50-2343.50 *strong
2338.00-2337.00
2324.00-2422.50 *major Tues
2317.00-2315.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Sunday July 10, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 10 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 7/10/2011


The ES opened down 18 points on Friday's employment report,
and turned up from 1333.75 and reached 1338.00 before
fizzling out. That set up a drop down to 1329.25 by 11:30 AM
and the market reversed. Two attempts to get over the 1335
level on the ES failed, but the pullbacks were small and the
ES made a push back up to test 1338 new resistance. The move
reversed from 1337.75 and pulled back to 1333.25 before
stalling out. A move up from there lost steam and the market
began to pull back, but with 30 minutes left in stock
trading the market got turned up and broke out above the
1338 level and ran up to 1342.50 just before the close.

We took off half of the put options (bought midday and in
the last hour on Thursday) on the open on Friday, locking in
a nice profit on part of the position. Last Thursday's high
at 1252.50 shouldn't be exceeded now, so keep a stop there
on the rest of that position for now.

After seven days on the upside, one down day should not mean
a whole lot, but in this case it looks like it may be the
start of something. If the market does move higher, the
short-term indicators will not confirm a higher high. Also
if that occurs, then expect the VIX to drop down towards 15,
which should set up a top. So, the market could go back to
test last week's high, but if so the move will likely set
the market up for another drop as big or bigger than the
Friday drop.

The futures closed just under some good resistance on
Friday. If the market opens higher, then expect a reversal
to occur in the first 40 minutes at the latest. If that
plays out, then the first support at the 1338.50-1338.00
area will be key. If that area is not held, was quickly
reversed if broken, then a move back down to the 1333 area
(and around 11600 on the Dow cash) will need to hold. If the
market gets back there, and is not turned up, then the
market will be showing signs of weakness that we didn't see
last week. A move back to test the 1329.25-1328.50 area
will be in the cards, and if that breaks in we should see
1325.00-1324.50 as a key area. If there is a breakdown, and
the market does not reverse off of that support, then we
will be seeing the 1317.75-1316.50 on this leg down.

On the upside, the ES pops over the initial resistance at
1342.50-1343.00 and holds that area on a pullback (instead
of breaking right down through it), then the door is still
open for one more push higher to possibly test the 1352.50
area. If the ES gets back there, and does not double top,
then a move to the 1358 area, and possibly 1362 area, is not
impossible (but not probable unless some outside event
occurs to send prices higher). If that occurs then get ready
to short as soon as the upside stalls out because that would
be a good top if the market gets there and reverses. A setup
like this could start a move down that is more than 25
points on the ES, more likely close to 40 points or more.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1342.50-1343.00
1347.75-1348.25
1352.50-1354.00
1358.00
1361.50-1362.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1338.50-1338.00
1333.00-1332.50
1329.25-1328.50
1325.00-1324.50
1317.75-1316.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2409.50-2410.50
2421.75-2422.50
2431.25-2432.50
2442.00
2448.00-2450.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2400.00-2398.50
2387.50-2386.75
2379.75-2378.75
2366.00-2364.50
2352.50-2350.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday July 07, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 7 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 8:16 pm eastern time, 7/7/2011

The ES gapped up 11.25 points on the open on Thursday and
the market stayed in a trading range until after noon. A
move to 1350.50 occurred by 1PM, but the market barely
pulled back and the ES ran up to 1352.75 by 2:30PM. A small
dip was bought, a test of the high 1352.50 was reversed.
That set up a 123 top in the last hour and gave a drop to
1348.75. That was the biggest pullback all day, and at trend
up support for the ES. But while stocks didn't budge, the
futures rallied into their close to settle well above fair
value.

With good ADP jobs numbers on Thursday, the market took off
to the upside before the open and held those gains into the late
afternoon. The market has rallied steadily higher as we come
into Friday's Employment report. A small position in put
options was put on Thursday with the ES around 1348.50 and
1352.00, and average entry around 1350 basis the ES. Another
big up day that holds gains doesn't seem to have good odds
on Friday.

In any case, it looks like the key on Friday will be holding
at, or above, the initial support areas at 1349.00-1348.50
area on the ES and 2409.00-2406.75 area on the NQ. If those
areas hold, then the up trend can continue for a bit
further. However, if those areas are broken and the market
does not quickly reverse back up, then the trends will begin
to roll over. If that is the case, then the next support
areas should be in the cards at the least.

On the upside, if there is a move over the Thursday high
areas (initial resistance) instead, then we could see either
a token higher high that reverses from the second resistance
area. If there is no sign of a turn there, then a run up to
the 1358.00-1358.50 area could occur before the market has a
decent pullback. If this is the case, then the pullback from
around 1358 would need to hold at or above initial support
areas still, or the market will begin to change character.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1352.00-1252.75
1354.50-1355.00
1358.00-1358.50
1362.00-1362.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1349.00-1348.50
1344.25-1343.50
1339.25-1338.50
1336.00-1335.25

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2416.25-2418.00
2423.50-2424.00
2430.00-2431.50
2438.00-2439.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2409.00-2406.75
2401.75-2400.75
2392.00-2391.00
2386.00-2384.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday July 06, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 6 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 8:36 pm eastern time, 7/6/2011

The ES opened down about 6 points on Wednesday and the
pressure stayed on until reaching 1326.50 about an hour into
trading. The move reversed back up but hit resistance at
1336.75 and dropped to 1331.25 with an hour left in trading.
Unable to push under 1332 and hold, buyers/ short covering
came in and the futures rallied to test the highs at the
close.

The way the market has been trading this week, it acts like
it should hold together for another day as it waits on the
employment numbers on Friday morning. Most of the internal
gauges have pulled back from overbought condition, and the
Vix is back to having just one sell signal at Wednesday's
close. These are short-term bearish divergences, and should
be worked out by Friday.

In the last hour on Wednesday the ES was able to hold the
1332 level and rallied into the close. As long as that level
holds on Thursday, then no damage will be done to the up
trend. A rally up to the 1340 level could occur early as
long as that holds (better odds if 1335 holds), but if so a
decent pullback should follow. If this plays out, then
holding the 1336-1335 area will be key to keeping the up
trend alive. That would be a mini breakout point, and also
the highs for the last three days and would be pivotal if
exceeded and then tested on a pullback.

On the other side of the coin, if there is another failure
to clear the 1336.50-1337.00 area on Thursday morning, and
the ES does not hold the 1332 area on a third test, then a
decent sized pullback is underway. A drop to test the
1328.50 area would be next and that should be about as far
as a pullback goes to keep the market from trouble. However,
if the market gets back down there and cannot get turned
back up quickly, then a drop down towards the 1325 area or
lower is likely. The biggest intraday pullback since this
rally started a week and a half ago has been 8.50 points on
the ES, and a drop of 8-10 ES points will need to hold on a
drop or the bulls will be losing control short-term at
least.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1336.50-1337.00
1340.00
1342.00-1342.50
1345.75-1346.25
1350.50-1352.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1332.50-1332.00
1329.25-1328.50
1325.00-1324.50
1320.25-1319.75

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2379.75-2381.50
2388.00
2393.00-2393.50
2397.00-2399.50
2406.75-2408.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2367.75-2367.00
2362.00-2360.00
2355.00-2354.00
2345.00-2344.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday July 05, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 5 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 8:36 pm eastern time, 7/5/2011

**Note: I will be away until the early afternoon
on Wednesday. I will send updates via instant
message as soon as possible but it may not be
until around 1 PM or so until I am able to do so.
My apologies.

The market opened a bit lower on Tuesday, then the ES
bounced from the 1330.25 level to 1335.25. That didn't
stick, and a drop to 1329.25 followed. A slow move up from
there failed at 1336.25 and then the ES dropped back to
1329.25 around 2 PM. That held and a bounce back to test the
highs occurred before the close.

The market gyrated on Tuesday, as the ES made these swings
intraday:
1335.25
1329.25 -6.00
1336.25 +7.00
1329.25 -7.00
1337.00 +7.75

A double bottom and double top was made, so the 1329.25-
1328.50 area on the ES is key on a drop and the 1336.75-
1338.00 area is key on top on Wednesday. The internal gauges
are still overbought, and the Vix reversal on Tuesday gave
3 of 5 sell signals. Odds still favor more downside action
short term.

On Wednesday we should get more two-sided action, but if the
1329.25-1328.50 area is tested again and not held, then a
top of some sort should be forming. Look for early strength
to be sold, and if that plays out then the 1332.00 will be
the first area that needs to hold. If that is held, then the
market could make another push higher. If that level is
broken, then the key support at the Tuesday lows will be
next. If that area is broken and not quickly reversed back
up, then the trend will be changing in a drop back towards
the 1320 area on the ES is likely. If the market gets hit
with selling on Wednesday, then the major area below is at
the 1313.25-1312.50 zone on the ES. If the market gets back
there over the next day or two, then another bounce back to
test these highs will be likely. However, the market sells
off that hard and cannot get turned back around, then the
market could get itself back into trouble.

On the other side of coin, if they pull back and hold the
1332 area and bounce back, then we could still see a move up
to test the 1342 area on the ES on this leg up. At the
worst, a test of the 1329.25-1328.50 area (or just a bit
lower then quickly turn up) that holds is about all that can
keep the market from getting into some trouble on Wednesday.
If the initial resistances cleared in the early going, and
not quickly reversed as expected, then the market can avoid
that deeper pullback until perhaps later in the day on
Wednesday.

**Note: I will be away until the early afternoon
on Wednesday. I will send updates via instant
message as soon as possible but it may not be
until around 1 PM or so until I am able to do so.
My apologies.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1336.50-1337.00
1342.00-1342.50
1345.75-1346.25
1350.50-1352.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1332.00
1329.25-1328.50
1325.00-1324.50
1320.25-1319.75
1313.25-1312.50
1308.25-1307.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2371.50-2372.00
2379.75-2381.50
2388.00-2389.50
2397.00-2399.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2365.00
2362.00-2360.00
2355.00-2354.00
2345.00-2344.00
2337.75-2336.50
2328.25-2327.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday July 04, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 4 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 7/4/2011

Last week was a good week for the Bulls. The market closed
higher every day last week, even in the face of some extreme
over bought internal indicators. On Friday, the ES held
above the 1312 key support level on its first pullback, and
then shot higher on the ISM data release. The move didn't
stall until reaching 1328 on the ES, and then per normal for
the uptrend last week there was just a small 3 point
pullback by the ES before the move continued. The 1336.50
level was reached shortly before the close.

The market has rallied now to the area where the break down
began on June 1. Up between 1339 and 1342 on the ES there
should be very good resistance, if for nothing else than to
get the last trapped traders from a month ago back to even
where they should be looking to get out. There are other
reasons that the market should have some difficulty moving
forward without some sort of pullback first.

First off, the market has gone straight up for five days,
and although it has ignored extreme overbought readings for
two days, this is not a good time to be diving in on the
long side. Odds favor a decent pullback soon. The biggest
intraday pullback last week was 8 points on the ES. There
were a number of 3.50-4.50 point pullback's intraday last
week, as the five day move higher was well contained and
barely took a breath before moving on up.

The short-term indicators didn't relieve any of the
overbought status on Friday. In fact, the closing Trin was
at a miniscule .41 Friday and further stretched the short-
term over bought condition. Odds had favored a pullback on
Thursday and we didn't get one. Instead the market rallied
for two more days so far. This is not a common occurrence
when the indicators set up as they did last week. It's more
reason to expect things to return to normal early next week.
As for price indicators, the S&P 500 cash closed more than
three standard deviations above the 20 day moving average on
Friday. Finally, the put call ratio which had reached a very
big extreme a little over a week ago has gone in a straight
line drop... kind of opposite of prices over the past week
and a half. The weight of the evidence favors a pullback
early this week.

On Tuesday morning the 1332.50-1331.50 initial support will
need to hold on a pullback, otherwise it will be a sign of
topping out and bounces should then fail. If the ES breaks
that zone, then the 1328.50 area would be next. That should
be key since the biggest dip last week was 8 points on the
ES and that would be an eight point pullback from Friday's
high.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1336.75-1238.00
1342.00-1342.50
1345.75-1346.25
1350.50-1352.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1332.50-1331.50
1328.50-1327.75
1325.00-1324.50
1320.25-1319.75

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2360.75-2362.25
2371.50-2372.00
2378.50-2379.60
2388.00-2389.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2353.00-2352.00
2345.00-2344.00
2337.75-2336.50
2328.25-2327.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday June 30, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 30 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 8:23 pm eastern time, 6/30/2011

The ES opened higher on Thursday and a pullback from 1307.50
held the updated 1305.50 support and shot higher to 1316.75
by noon. The move ran out of gas, and a pullback too the ES
to 1312.25 with an hour left in stock trading. Buyers/ short
covering ran the ES to a token higher high at 1317.50 and
then backed off and pulled back into the close.

The market closed higher every day this week so far. The
SP500 cash is up 52.19 points on a closing basis. There has
been 4 days in a row with over 2000 advancing issues on the
NYSE, normally a set-up for a pullback. For the second day
in a row both the RBI oscillator is in overbought territory
along with the three-day thrust oscillator being at in
extreme overbought reading. Under most cases the market will
at best have trouble making more progress on the upside.
More often not, the market will sell off to relieve the
overbought condition. It's not just these two indicators
that are overbought. The short-term volume oscillators are
also at extremes, with the four-day volume oscillator over
.80. Also, with the four day string of 2000 (or more)
advancing issues on the NYSE, short-term breath oscillators
are also overbought. The McClellan oscillator is above plus
200 for the first time in a few months. The Vix dropped
under 17 on Thursday and now is giving two of a possible
five VIX sell signals.

The market can get overbought and stay overbought when all
the conditions are favorable. The market had been in a
trading range, but is trying to break out on the upside. A
failure to do so early on Friday should cause some profit-
taking in front of the holiday, at the least. As long as a
pullback can hold around the 1312 area on the ES, then the
up trend can continue. However, if that area is broken and
the market does not quickly turn right back up, then things
could be changing. A move down to the 1308.50-1308.00 area
on the ES would be next, and appears to be a key support if
it's tested. If the market gets back down there, it must get
turned back up with good buying, otherwise they drop back
down to the 1302 area.

So, on Friday look for early strength to be reversed in the
first 30 minutes of trading. If there is a small pop up
higher on the open, then expect a reversal from that type of
action. If that plays out, look to take off part of the
position around the 1312 area on the ES and tighten up your
stop on the remainder. If there is no sign of turning back
up from that 1312 area, then we should see the 1308 area and
possibly back down towards 1302 if the downside gathers some
steam. On the upside, it will take a break and hold over
1317.50- 1318.00 area to keep the upside going and possibly
go for the 1325 area before this move is over.

Have a great, safe, holiday weekend! The next nightly update
will be sent on Monday.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1317.50-1318.00
1324.25-1325.00
1328.25-1329.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1312.50-1312.00
1308.50-1308.00
1302.00-1310.75

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2323.50-2324.50
2337.75-2338.50
2342.75-2344.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2316.50-2316.00
2307.00-2306.50
2298.00-2296.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Wednesday June 29, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 29 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 8:23 pm eastern time, 6/29/2011

The ES opened higher and at the 1297.50-1298.50 resistance
and pulled back to fill the gap. A pop back up failed after
that, then a pullback to 1292.75 happened in the first 60
minutes and the market turned back up. A trend up move to
the 1305.50-1306.50 area on the ES lasted until around 2 PM
and the ES dropped back to the 1297.00 level. That move was
reversed and the market rallied back to test its highs by
the close.

We had the back and forth day on Wednesday but the averages
still closed up for the day. The SP500 cash gained 10+
points for the 3rd day in a row, and the end of quarter
upside bias kicked in from a modest oversold state. The
internal gauges are mostly overbought at this juncture. My
RBI Oscillator is in sell territory and my 3 day thrust
oscillator is at +.82 (+.50 normal extreme). The Vix gave 1
of 5 possible sell signals.

The last day of the quarter should have trouble holding
gains on Thursday. The Wednesday trading ended in uptrends
so an early pop up should be sold in to. If that sets up, a
reversal is a shorting opportunity. If that happens, a
pullback needs hold the 1297.50-1297.00 area at the worst to
avoid reversing direction. If that holds, then the market
can stay in bullish mode. However, if that area is not
defended, then another decent sided pullback should be in
gear. A test of the 1292.50-1292.00 area would then be a
major area to hold to avoid going back under 1290 on
Thursday/ Friday morning.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1305.50-1306.50
1308.00
1312.00-1312.50
1317.50-1318.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1297.50-1297.00
1292.50-1292.00
1288.25-1287.25
1282.25-1281.50
1277.25-1276.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2295.00-2295.50
2301.00
2308.50-2310.00
2318.00-2320.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2280.25-2279.25
2275.00-2274.25
2267.50-2266.50
2250.50-2249.75
2238.50-2237.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Tuesday June 28, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 28 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 9:06 pm eastern time, 6/28/2011

The market opened higher on Tuesday and just kept grinding
higher. The biggest dip on the ES was just 3.50 points as
the market rallied from open to close in a trend up Tuesday.

The market is just one up day from getting into overbought
status and also potentially give a few Vix sell signals too.
After 2 trend up days in a row we may not get that good odds
set up. To stay in bullish mode, the initial support areas
need to be held on Wednesday. If not defended, then a 2
sided day is in the cards, at best.

If there is a higher open on Wednesday, it's a good short
for a test of the initial support. If that plays out and the
first pullback holds that 1288.25-1287.25 area on the ES
then the upside will be intact still. If broken, then a
bounce should fail and a move back to the 1282.25-1281.50
area is possible before a rally back can occur.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1295.00
1297.50-1298.50 *strong
1301.00-1302.00
1305.50-1306.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1288.25-1287.25
1282.25-1281.50
1277.25-1276.50
1272.50-1271.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2285.00
2288.75-2290.25 *strong
2296.00-2297.00
2305.25-2307.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2274.50-2272.50
2260.50-2259.75
2250.50-2249.75
2238.50-2237.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Monday June 27, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 27 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 8:36 pm eastern time, 6/27/2011

The ES opened slightly higher at 1264.25 and the traded down
to 1261.75, which was in the initial 1262.00-1261.50 support
zone. That 1261.75 was reversed and the market traded up to
1269.25 (in the 1268.75-1269.50 initial resistance zone)
where it stalled and pulled back to 1266.75 before trading
up to a new high of 1273.50 just after 10:30 AM. After
reaching 1273.50, the market stalled and pulled back to the
test 1269.25. The test of 1269.25 reversed and the ES
traded back up to 1274.75 just after noon, where it stalled
again before putting in a double top type pattern around
1:20 PM and traded back down to 1271.25 before reversing
again and trading back up to the daily high of 1280 around
2:50 PM (in the 1279.75-1280.50 resistance zone). 1280 was
rejected and the market traded down to 1277.25 before
bouncing back up to 1279.50 and then reversing and trading
down to 1274 just after 4 PM before finally settling at
1276.75.

The market is still in a big trading range, and must now get
over 1280 on the ES and hold to keep the upside from
aborting again. Even then, it's doubtful it will be able to
keep going on back to/through the 1284.50-1285.25 area
before a good sized pullback occurs. Look for early strength
to be sold near the initial resistance if a stall/rejection
there occurs.

On the downside, the bulls stay in charge as long as the
initial support areas hold. A break opens the door to test
the 1271.25-1270.50 zone on the ES. A reversal there sets up
a good buying opportunity. However, if that area breaks and
is not reversed quickly, then the market gets back into
trouble again on Tuesday.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1279.75-1280.50
1284.50-1285.25
1291.50-1292.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1274.00
1271.25-1270.50
1266.50-1265.75
1262.00-1261.00
1258.00-1257.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2259.50-2260.50
2268.50-2269.50
2282.50-2284.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2245.00
2242.00-2240.50
2216.00-2215.50
2211.00-2209.75
2206.50-2205.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Sunday June 26, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 26 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 6/26/2011

NOTE: I'm far from healthy yet, but will do several
intraday updates this week when able. They will be sent
via Instant Message.

The market had an oversold rally into Tuesday/ Wednesday and
then got to overbought extremes on the daily indicators. The
ES struggled to get over the 1279-1280 area, and on Thursday
and Friday the market traded mostly lower. On Friday the
market was hit with selling that took the ES back to the
1262.00-1261.50 zone just before the close.

All of the daily indicators are in neutral as of Friday's
close. The only thing that is modestly bullish is 3 days in
a row with a closing Trin over 1.00. The market is currently
in a big trading range that needs to avoid rolling over much
more. The 200 day moving average on the SP500 held 2 weeks
ago, and made a low there. It is in an uptrend and sits at
1263.60 coming into Monday.

Still, the market has acted poorly, and unless/until the
market proves strong the bounces should set up shorts. The
initial support areas need defended on Monday to avoid a bad
start to the week for the bulls. If the 1261.50 area is not
held, then the next zones should be in the cards at the
least. If the ES gets back to the 1252.50-1251.50 area, be
on reversal alert as a decent double bottom could be made
and start another good rally back. The market will need to
get over the initial resistance areas, and not pull back any
further than the 1266 area on ES to try getting the market
out of trouble on Monday.

NOTE: I'm far from healthy yet, but will do several
intraday updates this week when able. They will be sent
via Instant Message.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1268.75-1269.50
1274.75-1275.25
1279.75-1280.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1262.00-1261.50
1257.00-1256.50 {200D MA area}
1252.50-1251.50 *major

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2223.00-2224.00
2231.75-2233.25
2243.50-2244.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2207.00-2206.50
2198.50-2197.50 {200D MA area}
2184.00-2182.50 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday June 23, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 23 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:34 pm eastern time, 6/23/2011

** Hope to be back in the instant messenger room Monday.
Thanks to everyone who has sent well wishes! **

A very quick update tonight. The market was weak early and
rallied off of a decent support area at the 1257.00 area.
There was a pretty good pullback off of the 1270.00 area
on the ES, but that pullback was bought and the market was
able to rally into the last hour.

On Tuesday night my wife Julie sent out a note saying
that we had one of five vix sell signals and that the
RBI Oscillator was in sell mode. In last night's update
I reminded that the RBI Oscillator was still in sell
mode but that also the VIX gave one sell signal. I
mentioned that Thursday was expected to be a two sided
day. The good washout down to 1257.00 was enough to get
a decent bounce back in gear. Thursday started with a
big gap down open and after reaching 1257.00 on the ES
buyers came back and a decent oversold bounce took the
ES back to almost 1280.00 by the close filling the gap.

As for Friday finally all of the indicators are in neutral
territory. Look for early strength to be sold into as it
should make a good shorting opportunity. Especially if 1280
on the ES is reversed. On the downside if there is another
decent pullback then the 1261.50 area needs to be held, or
reversed quick if broken to avoid more breakdown and
possibly going towards the 1252.00 level, that is the low
so for the move.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1280.50-1281.00
1284.50-1285.25
1290.75-1292.50
1297.50-1298.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1270.00-1269.75
1262.00-1261.50
1257.00-1256.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2249.50-2250.50
2258.85-2260.20
2270.00-2272.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2235.00-2234.00
2218.00-2217.50
2208.00-2206.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Wednesday June 22, 2011

 

Hi Everybody,

Mike still isn't quite up to par, but wanted to give you a
head's up...

Last night Mike stated that his RBI Oscillator was
overbought along with his 3 Day Thrust also being
overbought.

The market was up early in the day, but by the end of the
day the market closed on it's lows. What was interesting is
that the RBI Oscillator remains in overbought territory, and
the VIX gave one of a possible 5 sell signals on Wednesday.

So, Thursday should be a two sided trading day.
1277.50 is first support
1272.50-1271.50 is a "key" support on Thursday
That area should hold if the market is going to be able to avoid trouble.

If the market rallies instead, then there is still
resistance at 1294.00 on the ES, and if that is exceeded,
then major resistance at 1297.50-1298.50

Mike hopes to be back to "normal" again real soon.
Good Trading (from Mike),

Julie
TradeStalker.com

 

 

Tuesday June 21, 2011

 

Hi Everybody,

Mike has been sick for the past few days, however he was
able to check his spreadsheet to see if there was a
directional bias for Wednesday.

Mike's RBI Oscillator is in sell territory and his 3 Day
Thrust is extremely overbought. When this combination is
present, the market has a hard time going up. In fact, this
same set up was present last week before a drop of about 20+
points on the SP500. The key support area is at 1277.50 and
then if broken, then the 1273.50-1272.50 looks like it must
hold or a big turn down could occur. The key resistance
overhead is currently at 1297-1298 area on the ES.

Don't forget tomorrow is a Fed Day.

Hopefully Mike will be better enough tomorrow to send a
regular update. But, we'll have to see how he's feeling.

Good Trading (from Mike),
Julie
TradeStalker.com

 

 

Sunday June 19, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 19 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 6/19/2011

Last week was full of big gap opens. On Friday the ES gapped
up 11 points at 1275.00 and that was sold. A drop to 1267.25
followed, and then the market bounced back. A bounce to
1273.00 was rejected, then a failure at 1272.25 set up a
short before the triangle pattern was broken. That brought
on the move to 1263.25 (1264-1263 was the target) and a
bounce back to 1270.00 followed. That move stalled and then
rolled over and the ES dropped to 1261.50 with an hour left
in stock trading. A fast reversal took the market back to
test the last bounce highs but fell just short, as the ES
ran out of steam and dropped back to 1265.00 just before
settlement.

The Vix reversed and closed down on Friday. That gives 3 of
a possible 5 Vix buy signals in my work. That's the only
bullish indicator, as Friday's up close erased most of the
oversold signals. If there are higher prices ahead, the
market may need to go lower before getting turned back up.
The 1270 area on the ES was rock solid resistance and would
need to be cleared to try turning the market up. TRhat area
on the ES along with the NQ getting back over its 2195.25-
2196.25 resistance, and not failing, will be needed to get
things in sync in uptrends.

That said, favor selling the bounces to support zones before
looking for a tradable bounce on Monday morning. Look to
sell early strength as soon as the upside fizzles out on
Monday morning. If that plays out and then a drop to initial
support is held, a decent bounce should set up. If that area
is broken and no reversal, then last Thursday's lows should
be very good support if reached again and there is a sign of
turning. If the market gets back down there it should set up
a very good buying opportunity to be on the lookout for.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1269.00-1270.00
1274.50-1275.50
1280.50-1281.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1262.50-1261.50
1258.25-1257.50
1252.50-1251.50
1244.50-1244.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2195.00-2196.25
2203.50-2205.00
2213.50-2214.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2184.00-2182.50
2176.50-2175.50
2166.50-2165.50
2154.00-2152.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

Thursday June 16, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 16 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 10:45 pm eastern time, 6/16/2011

The ES opened flat, dipped to just over 1258 support then
bounced to 1264 resistance and stalled. From the 1264.50
high a sharp drop to test yesterday's lows came on Philly
Fed release, and a very sharp run up to the 1266.75
resistance stalled out. A pullback held the new 1261.50
support and ran to a higher high at 1269.00. The ES pulled
back to 1264.50 new support and bounced, but failed to make
a higher high and rolled over. The drop took the market to
the key 1252.00 area on the ES and within 13 cents of the
200 day moving average on the SP500 cash, and reversed back
up. The move was a strong trend up move as the ES made it
back to 1264.00 just before settlement.

The market has most of the ingredients present for a decent
short term low. The Vix exploded on Thursday, then reversed
and that gave 2 of 5 possible Vix buy signals. Other
internal gauges were at extremes near the Thursday low but
were relieved a bit by the late rally. The could be one more
push lower, but it looks like the worst is behind us short
term as long as the Thursday lows are held.

On Friday look for early strength to be sold in the first
15-30 minutes, and then give a decent pullback. If that
plays out and a pullback gets footing around the 1258.25-
1257.50 area on the ES and the 2186.75-2185.75 area on the
NQ, then a good bounce back should follow if a low is in
place. If that doesn't hold, then a re-test of the 1252 area
on the ES is possible but that should be bought if it gets
back there. On the upside, a run up towards the 1273.25-
1274.00 area on the ES is possible, but should be about it
before a decent drop occurs.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1265.75-1266.25
1269.00-1269.50
1273.25-1274.00
1276.50-1277.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1261.00-1260.50
1258.25-1257.50
1252.50-1251.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2199.25-2200.25
2207.50-2208.25
2213.50-2214.25
2222.25-2224.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2193.00-2192.50
2186.75-2185.75
2176.50-2175.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday June 15, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 15 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:19 pm eastern time, 6/15/2011

The ES gapped down about 13 points on Wednesday and reversed
and a rally to 1275.75 followed. That stalled and reversed,
and a pullback to 1270.75 occurred. That gave a bounce to
1275.25 (at 20ema on 5 min chart) while the NQ stayed under
its 2238 level and turned down. After the first small dip, a
little bounce to the 1273.50-1274.00 zone set up a short and
the market went trend down to take out the 1262 level on the
way to to the 1258.25-1257.50 zone. The ES reversed up from
1257.25 but the new resistance at the 1263.50 was reached
and reversed and another drop tested the 1257.50 level for a
forth time. A pop up to 1262.00 was sold and the ES dropped
to a lower low at 1255.75 with 90 minutes left in stock
trading. Short covering took the ES back to the 1263.50 new
key resistance was sold before pulling back into the close.

The gap up on Tuesday and gap down on Wednesday leaves the
daily chart looking ugly. There were some somewhat bullish
occurrences though on Wednesday. At last the market showed a
bit of fear for a switch, as the Vix jumped almost 17% at
the close. A bit more of a jump on the Vix that is reversed
could give a number of buy signals. The ES did break the
1257 level it held 4 times before going to 1255.75, then
turned back up and stayed over it. It doesn't give a strong
bullish case, but some two-sided action will be more likely
on Thursday.

Look for early weakness to be bought on Thursday, and then
if the first decent bounce fails near the initial resistance
yet another decent drop should occur. If that initial
resistance is exceeded and held, instead of reversed, then a
push towards the 1266.25-1266.75 area before a decent dip
occurs. If that early "pop up and reverse" type of does
action occur from near the initial resistance areas, and a
pullback then goes through the 1258.00 level, a drop to/
through the Wednesday lows can be in the cards before a low
gets put in place. That could be around the 1252.00-1250.50
area on the ES and/or around the 1257 level on the SP500
Cash (SPX) where the up-sloping 200 day moving average
rests. A good rebound should start from around that zone,
otherwise the market could implode a bit and go for the
1246.00-1245.00 area on the ES before a decent trading low
is in place.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1263.50-1264.00
1266.25-1266.75
1270.00-1271.00
1276.00-1277.50
1281.00-1282.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1258.00-1257.00
1252.00-1250.50
1246.00-1245.00 major

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2208.00-2209.00
2212.00-2213.50
2216.00-2216.50
2222.75-2223.50
2230.00-2231.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2201.00-2200.00
2193.00-2192.00
2185.00-2183.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday June 14, 2011
.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 14 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 10:11 pm eastern time, 6/14/2011

The ES gapped up almost 12 points on Tuesday and pushed
through all listed resistance by reaching 1283.75 before
pulling back. A dip held 1280.50 and a trend up move to
1286.50 followed. A small dip held the 1283 new support and
made another push higher. The ES made a slightly higher high
at 1287.00 while the Dow cash made a double top, and a 6.00
point drop to 1281.00 (just over 1280.50 key support)
followed and then the futures firmed up and settled over
fair value.

The market didn't like it around the 1287 area on Tuesday,
which is just under the June 6th bounce high which preceded
the drop to 1259.50 last week. On the other side of the
coin, the decent pullbacks are getting buyers stepping to
the plate the past few days. The technical gauges are mostly
neutral except for my RBI Oscillator, which is in sell
territory at Tuesday's close. This is a buy negater unless
there is a good set-up to get long at lower prices. A drop
back to the 1277.00-1276.50 area on the ES would need to be
reversed or a move to fill the gap on the daily charts could
be in the cards. To nullify the bearish outlook, the ES
needs to get over 1288.50 and hold over that area.

So, look for early strength to set up a shorting opportunity
on Wednesday. If that plays out, the 1281.00-1280.50 area is
the first support to defend. If it's is not defended, then
the 1277.00-1276.50 area is likely in the cards before a
bounce occurs. If that 1280.50 is reversed instead, then a
move to test or slightly exceed the 1287 high from Tuesday
is possible.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1285.00
1287.50-1288.50
1291.50-1292.25
1297.50-1298.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1281.00-1280.50
1277.00-1276.50
1273.25-1272.50
1268.00-1267.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2250.00
2254.00-2255.00
2261.75-2263.00
2272.25-2274.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2245.00-2243.25
2238.60-2237.50
2227.75-2227.00
2218.25-2217.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday June 13, 2011
.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 13 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 6/13/2011

The market opened higher on Monday and the ES reached
1271.50 about 15 minutes into trading and then pulled back.
A small range between 1267.50 on the bottom and 1271.25 on
top formed but another attempt to push higher failed a 3rd
time at 1271.00 and finally broke to the downside. The move
gathered steam and the market fell to new lows for the move
with the ES reaching 1259.50 before reversing. The move back
up picked up some steam too once the 1263.50 area was pushed
through, and the ES reached 1271.75 before pulling back 4
points on the ES. A pop back up to 1271.50 was rejected, and
then the ES chopped back to the 1264.50 updated support just
before the close.

Once again the bounces couldn't stick on Monday. The
internal gauges are on the oversold side on neutral except
for a few breadth oscillators. The McClellan oscillator is
at -221 which is a normal extreme. Also on the slightly
bullish side, the Vix finally jumped a bit showing a bit of
fear for a switch. Prices made lower lows and lower lows
again on Monday.

There was good buying at lower levels on Tuesday, but eager
sellers when the ES refused to hold the 1271 area and the
Dow cash wouldn't stick over 12000. If the initial support
can hold early on Tuesday, then a pop up to exceed the
Monday highs can change that streak, and a decent move up
could occur. Even if that's the case, the market should
still have a hard time holding up at higher prices. The
12000 area on the Dow cash needs cleared and then needs to
hold that area on a dip to begin to dent the downside
momentum.

On Tuesday the 1264.50 area on the ES should be key early.
If that area is held, then a move back up to test the
1270.50-1271.50 zone, or a bit higher, should be in the
cards. If the market gets back up there and is rejected
again, then a move back towards that 1264.50-1264.00 area
should be in the cards again. If held, then the market will
be getting legs to try another move up. If the market can
NOT take out the Monday highs, and the 1264.50 area is not
defended on a dip, then a test of the 1258.25-1257.50 area
could be in the cards. If so, expect that area to have
buyers waiting as it wasn't down there for very long on
Monday and likely will bring in short covering on any hint
of a turn back up from that area. If no turn comes from that
area, then watch the 1254-1262 area on the SP500 cash for
key support on this leg down.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1270.50-1271.50
1273.00-1273.75
1276.50-1277.00
1281.00-1282.00

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1264.50-1264.00
1260.00-1259.50
1258.25-1257.50
1252.00-1251.50
1245.00-1244.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2229.50-2230.00
2234.50-2235.00
2240.25-2241.25
2248.50-2249.50

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2216.25-2215.50
2211.00-2210.50
2207.00-2206.25
2196.75-2295.75
2186.50-2184.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Sunday June 12, 2011
.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 12 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 6/12/2011

It was another bearish week for the market last week, and it
ended with the market taking another drubbing. On Friday the
ES gapped down 4.50 points on the open, and after a bounce
from 1273.50 to new resistance at 1276.00 stalled, it set up
a shorting opportunity and a drop to 1269 followed. A bounce
then failed just under the 1273 updated resistance, and a
trend down move to the 1262 support/ target was met before 2
pm. The market turned up and rallied to test updated
resistance given at 1273.50. The move peaked at 1273.75 and
pulled back. I warned of a 1-2-3 top being a possibility up
there, and after a dip to 1269.25, the ES popped back up to
1273.25 and reversed, giving the 1-2-3 top just in time for
the drop back to test 1262.75 just before the close.

Since the last day of May, the SP500 cash has lost 74.22
points in 8 days on closing basis. It doesn't look to be
over yet either. Despite an oversold status, the bounces
refused to stick last week. The failure at the 1288.50
resistance level on Thursday on the September futures
contract led to a last hour drop. The subsequent gap down
open on Friday leaves the market with a lot of work to do to
change things short term. The 200 day moving average on the
SP500 cash is at 1254, and in the last decade that is tested
at least one time per year. Given the recent action, unless
there is some reason for a change, that should be seen
before this bear move ends.

On Monday the 1262 area on the ES will be key early. If that
is not defended, and there is a gap down open, then that
area should turn into decent resistance on a bounce as the
market goes towards the 1258.25-1257.50 area on the ES
and/or the 2207.00-2206.25 area on the weaker Nasdaq 100
futures (NQ). If there is a reversal from there, then a
bounce could occur. Just remember, a bounce shouldn't exceed
12 ES points from bottom to top before a stall/ reversal
occurs if this bearish action is going to continue. That has
been about as good as a rally goes before running into
selling lately.

If there is a higher open and early rally on Monday instead
of follow through selling, then the initial resistance areas
need to be exceeded/ held to go for the 1273.25-1273.75 area
on the ES, which was rejected late on Friday. A move over
that area will need to hold to begin to dig out of this hole
short term.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1267.50-1268.00
1273.25-1273.75 *key
1276.50-1277.00
1281.00-1282.00 *strong

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1262.50-1261.75 *key
1258.25-1257.50 *strong
1252.00-1251.50
1245.00-1244.00 *major

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2224.50-2225.25
2234.00-2235.00 *key
2240.25-2241.25
2248.50-2249.50 *strong

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2215.00-2214.50 *key
2207.00-2206.25 *strong
2196.75-2295.75
2186.50-2184.50 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Thursday June 09, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 09 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 6/09/2011

The higher open on Thursday was sold, but buying started at
the 1273.50 area (on the September e-mini SP futures, ES
U1)and a run up to 1284.75 occured before pulling back. The
dip held at 1281.25 and then pushed back over that 1284.75
early high as it turned into trend up support intraday. The
key 1288.50 level was reached with about an hour left in
stock trading, and that was a set-up to short and a drop
back to 1281.50 occurred as the market dropped into the
close.

On Thursday everything was looking good until the 1288.50
key level was rejected and then especially when the 1285
area was cut through. The averages closed up on the day, but
the late day drop showed that the market is not yet out of
the woods and ready to go on a tear on the upside.

For the most part the oversold extremes have been erased
short term. Given the recent drubbing and the late day
dumping of stocks on Thursday, don't expect the bounces to
stick just yet. The NQ pretty much led the moves in both
directions on Thursday, and ended on a weaker "get me out"
kind of end to the day. It actually made a lower low on
Thursday before turning back up, and a failure to clear/hold
its 2257.75 area also keeps the pressure on the downside.

On Friday, as long as the initial resistance is not cleared
and held (it should be short if an early pop up there
stalls/reverses), the market will be vulnerable and should
at least test the 1277.75-1277.00 area on the September ES
and/or the 2242.00-2240.50 area on the September NQ. A
bounce should come from there, however if those are not
defended on a pullback and spark a decent bounce, then a
drop back to the Wednesday low area on the ES down around
the 1272.00-1271.00 area is likely still. If that area is
broken, then it could get a bit ugly again to finish the
week.

September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1284.50-1285.25
1288.00-1288.50 *major
1291.00-1291.50
1295.00-1295.50

September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1

1281.75-1281.25
1277.75-1277.00 *strong
1272.00-1271.00 *major

September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2257.00-2257.75
2262.50-2263.50 *major
2266.00-2266.50
2273.00-2274.00

September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1

2248.00-2247.50
2242.00-2240.50 *strong
2232.50-2232.00 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Tuesday June 07, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 7 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:56 pm eastern time, 6/7/2011

The ES opened up almost 7 points on Tuesday and reached
1292.00 (just under the 1292.50-1293.00 resistance) before
dropping back to 1288.25. The market reversed back up and
went into a trend up move to 1293.75. A pullback held the
1291.00 updated support and made it to 1294.75 before
reversing and dropping back to 1289.25. Another pop up to
1293.75 failed, but the ES pulled back to 1291.75 (just over
1291.50 support) and popped up to a higher high at 1295.50.
That was rejected, setting up a short on the bounce to
1294.00-1294.50 zone and the reversal and 1294.25 then was
sold. The 1291 area was supported most of the afternoon but
when broken/ held in the last hour the downside gathered
momentum and the bottom side of the 1283.25-1282.50 support
zone was reached just before settling.

The market staged a decent oversold bounce but it refused to
stick. My short term internal gauges backed off the extreme
oversold condition by a bit. About the only technical
indication of a possible oversold bounce is closing Trin
over 1.09 for 5 straight days. Also, the 1282.50 level held
and the futures bounced to settle well over fair value.

With this oversold condition not yet able to spark a rally
that can stick, the easier trades should still set up on the
short side when a bounce stalls out. A lower open that gets
reversed should set up a good buying opportunity, and maybe
be the start of a good run-up to trade from the long side.
However, if there is another sizable upside open, and that
gets reversed from around the 1288.50-1289.50 area on the
ES, then selling should come in and a pullback will likely
occur before a decent set up to buy is seen.

If that happens and then there is a test of the 1282.75-
1282.25 zone on the ES that reverses again, it should then
start a decent rally from there. If that area breaks, then
the 1279.25-1278.50 zone should be the worst case drop on
Wednesday. If not, it's not good for the bigger picture as
the market would be breaking down despite deeply oversold
internal gauges. If there IS a rally takes out the initial
resistance and does not fail, then a move towards the
1291.75-1292.50 could be in the cards and possibly the
1297.75-1298.25 too if that 1292 area is broken/ held on a
dip, but should see sellers up there if it happens to be
reached on Wednesday.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1288.50-1289.50 minor
1291.75-1292.50 strong
1297.75-1298.25
1302.25-1302.75 major

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1282.75-1282.25
1279.25-1278.50 key
1274.25-1273.75
1270.75-1270.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2278.50-2279.25
2284.25-2285.25 strong
2292.50-2293.25
2298.50-2299.50 major

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2269.00-2268.00
2265.75-2264.75 key
2256.50-2255.50
2248.00-2246.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday June 06, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 6 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:06 pm eastern time, 6/6/2011

The ES opened flat on Monday and after a bounce to 1298.25
was reversed about 15 minutes into the trading day, it
dropped to test the 1290.50 support. A bounce off 1390.00
failed at 1294.00, and then another drop stopped at 1290.25
and turned up. A rally began but after getting to 1296.25,
the upside stalled and a rejection of 1296.00 made a small
double top and the market rolled over again. The 1288.25-
1287.75 zone was tested and a bounce followed, but it formed
a wedge pattern and a drop to 1283.25 occurred by 3 pm. A
bounce to 1288.50 turned pivotal, and unable to clear that
level the market sold off into the close.

As stated in last night's update the internal gauges have
reached a deep oversold condition. There was another closing
Trin above 3.00 as the internals on Monday were horrible
again. The only thing missing from a solid oversold status
is the Vix not giving sell signals. A "turn-around Tuesday"
is possible, but if the market cannot mount a decent rally
from these conditions, then a bigger bear move is underway
and the downside could gather momentum.

On Tuesday look for early weakness to be reversed to set up
a quick trade on the long side, especially if there is a gap
down open and the 1279.25-1278.50 area on the ES is defended
and quickly reversed back up in the first 30 minutes or so.
If that doesn't play out early then just wait for a bounce
to sell in to when it stalls out. However, if that kind of
early action does play out, look for the bounce to fail
around the 1288.75-1289.75 area on the ES if the market is
going to stay in weak hands. It will take a move back over
that area, that then holds at/above it on a dip, to dent the
downside momentum. Any trades on the long side should still
be quick scalp trades, because if this market doesn't have
the strength to get over the 1288.75-1289.75 area and stick,
then it still has another day of downside action before a
relief rally finally occurs.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1
1288.75-1289.75
1292.50-1293.00
1297.50-1298.25
1302.25-1302.75

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1
1283.25-1282.50
1279.25-1278.50
1274.25-1273.75
1270.75-1270.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1
2281.50-2282.50
2288.00-2288.75
2298.50-2299.50
2305.25-2306.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1
2271.50-2270.50
2268.50-2265.75
2255.00-2254.00
2248.00-2246.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Sunday June 05, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 5 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 6/5/2011

The market was overbought going into the Memorial Day
weekend, and then on Tuesday the market rallied to get
across the board sell signals. On Wednesday the market
opened lower and it was mostly downhill from there as the
market was hit hard. All bounces failed, and on Friday the
Nasdaq kept the market under pressure. After a gap down open
was reversed, a bounce lasted into early afternoon on the ES
and Dow but the Nasdaq didn't bounce much at all. The end of
day move was a choppy trend down move and market ended the
week at its lows on the futures contracts.

From the intraday highs made on Tuesday, the Dow dropped 470
points while the ES and NQ dropped 50.25 and 90 points,
respectively. The price action has been horrible for the
bulls, but my internal gauges are close to oversold extremes
again. The short term buy/ sell signals have marked the
recent lows and highs as they should. One more decent drop
would get the indicators deeply oversold, so an oversold
bounce could occur at any time now.

Even if we get a good bounce, it should have trouble holding
until the downside momentum is broken. The ES had a number
of roughly 8 point moves that failed late in the week. Just
to attempt to get turned around on Monday, the initial
resistance zones need to be cleared, then held on a dip to
take some pressure off. If that doesn't happen, then the
trends are still down and the ES could go for the 1288.25-
1287.75 area before a bounce can get underway. If that area
is reached and not held, then a move towards 1280 area could
be in the cards on this leg down.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1302.25-1302.75
1304.25-1304.75 *minor
1307.50-1308.50
1312.25-1313.00

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1294.50-1294.00
1290.50
1288.25-1287.75 *major
1279.25-1278.50
1270.75-1270.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2299.50-2300.50
2305.25-2306.25 *minor
2312.50-2313.75
2317.75-2318.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2282.50-2281.50
2274.00
2268.50-2265.75 *major
2255.00-2254.00
2238.50-2236.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Thursday June 02, 2011
.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 2 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:16 pm eastern time, 6/2/2011

In last night's update, we said to expect a bounce around
the 1308.25-1307.50 published support zone, and before the
open (in the chat-room), members were advised that the 1316
area would be a key dynamic resistance area during the first
10 minutes of trading. The ES gapped up slightly and a good
short trade was set up when the 1316 dynamic resistance area
(based on the 20 EMA, 5-minute chart) was rejected during
the first 10 minutes of trading. After the rejection, the
market traded down to an early low of 1308.25 (1308.25-
1307.50 support), then reversed back up to 1316.50 (a good
long trade). After a pullback, the market bounced back up to
put in a double top at the daily high at 1317 around 10:45
AM. A short trade was setup when the ES reversed on the
double top and traded back down to put in the daily low of
1304.25 just before noon. After putting in the low, the ES
bounced back up to 1309.25, where a good scalp short trade
was setup just before 12:30 PM when updated dynamic
resistance (20 EMA, 5-minute chart) was rejected. After
pulling back, the ES bounced up to 1313.75 around 1:10 PM,
where another scalp short trade was setup when the 60 EMA on
the 5 minute chart was rejected. After trading back down to
1310, a bounce to test the daily high area failed around
2:20 PM. After a pullback, the market bounced to test the
daily high area again just after 3 PM. The failure of this
test setup a final short trade, as the market traded back
down to 1310.50 just before 4 PM before settling at 1312.50.

After running up to overbought extremes on my short term
internal gauges on Monday and Tuesday, the market gave back
all the gains and closed at the lowest level since April 18.
The internal gauges have been nailing the highs and lows and
currently are about a day away from getting oversold again.
The Nasdaq is the only average yet to break down towards its
April 18 closing lows. The NQ would need to get to the
2300.50-2298.50 zone to test that support, and should before
this selloff is over.

On Friday morning we get the Employment data before stocks
open. The futures settled over fair value, so not much fear
being shown there. It is still a market to sell bounces for
now. A test of the initial support zones early on Friday
will need to be reversed back up quickly for the market to
avoid more trouble. On the top side, the Thursday high areas
were rejected in the morning and the afternoon, and will
need to be exceeded/ held on a dip to break the downside
momentum. Even if that happens, don't expect the bounces to
stick, as the damage done this week will take a good deal of
work to undo.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1316.50-1317.00
1321.00-1321.50
1323.25-1324.00
1330.75-1331.75

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1310.50-1310.00
1305.00-1304.25
1302.50-1302.00
1298.25-1297.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2334.50-2335.50
2341.75-2343.00
2348.75-2350.00
2357.75-2358.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2322.50-2322.00
2315.25-2314.75
2308.50-2307.50
2300.50-2298.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday June 01, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
6 / 1 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:42 pm eastern time, 6/1/2011

The market opened lower on Wednesday, and in short it was
selling from the opening to closing bell. The 1341.00-
1340.50 area on the ES as the key support early, and the
1341.00 level turned resistance in the first 15 minutes and
the market turned back down and calmly ground its way almost
all day. After an early afternoon bounce failed at 1331.25
the level it was obvious the market was in big trouble and
only the closing bell could stop the bleeding.

The extreme overbought status was completely relieved on
Wednesday. The complacent bullish mood was turned around in
a hurry too. The Vix was reversed and jumped more than 18%
on Wednesday. In addition, the closing Trin on Wednesday was
an extreme 4.36.

This doesn't look to be a 1 day event. On Thursday there
should be follow through selling, and if so then a bounce
back should have trouble after a test of the gaps occurs. If
that happens, and a bounce back tests 1311.15 and doesn't
reverse, then the ES still needs to get back over the
1314.25 level to put a small dent in the downside momentum
on Thursday. If that is cleared, then there is a lot of
resistance areas staggered above, and should provide a good
spot for a shorting opportunity. As for support areas, there
could be a bounce from around the 1308.25-1307.50 area on
the ES but even then it shouldn't get too far. Until the
market shows signs of strength, and does more than give the
feeble bounces that go 3-5 points on the ES and fail, the
market is still vulnerable with a test of the 1298.25-
1297.50 area on the ES still possible on this leg down.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1314.25
1317.50-1318.00
1321.00-1321.50 strong
1323.25-1324.00
1330.75-1331.75

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1311.25-1310.75
1308.25-1307.50
1302.50-1302.00
1298.25-1297.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2324.50
2329.50-2330.00
2334.25-2335.25 strong
2341.75-2343.00
2348.75-2350.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2318.50-2317.50
2311.50-2311.50
2300.50-2298.50
2290.50-2288.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday  May 31, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 31 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:10 pm eastern time, 5/31/2011

The ES gapped up over 12 points to open at 1342.50, which
was in the middle of the published 1342.25-1343.00
resistance zone. Since the market was overbought heading
into the trading day, this presented a good shorting
opportunity, especially since this area was a high that was
rejected in pre-market activity. After the open, the
1342.25-1343.00 zone was sold and the ES traded trend down
to the morning low 1335.75 just after 10:30 AM. After putting
in the morning low, the ES stalled and then traded in a
range between 1335.75 and 1338.25 until around noon, then
broke out to the downside and put in the daily low of
1333.25 just after 12:30 PM. After putting in the low, the ES
traded up to 1339 by 2:15 PM, breaking symmetry and putting
in the best bounce of the day. After a pullback to 1336.75
held support levels, the ES continued to move up and began a
very strong breakout to the upside around 3:45 PM. The
breakout resulted in the ES trading up to a new daily high
of 1345.75 shortly before the close, then pulled back to
settle at 1344.50.

At Tuesday's lows the SP and Dow cash both filled the gaps
on the daily charts (barely) while the Nasdaq stayed well
above its Friday high. In a way that is a bullish sign,
with Tech leading the move higher. On the flip side, that
will need to be filled in the not too distant future.

The daily indicators are still at overbought extremes. The
late run up should have trouble holding, and a decent
pullback should occur before the market tries to get back
into rally mode. That should start if/ when there is a
pullback of 2.25 points or more on the ES.

On Wednesday a higher open should set up a good shorting
opportunity if reversed in the first 20-30 minutes of
trading. If that plays out, then a drop to the 1341.00-
1340.50 area on the ES would need to hold to keep the
uptrend in gear. If that area is not able to show signs of a
turn, then a test of the afternoon low areas at the 1337.50-
1336.75 zone on the ES and the 2357.50-2357.00 area on the
NQ are both key support areas now. That is where the market
made a transition to the upside on Tuesday afternoon and
should be held if the market is going to stay out of
trouble. If those areas are reached, and not quickly
reversed back up, then the trends are changing and a decent
sized pullback should be underway.

On the upside, if a pullback can stay over the 1344 level in
the early going, it can avert a deeper drop and give another
push higher towards the 1348.00-1348.50 area on the ES
and/or the 2382.00-2383.00 area on the NQ before that
pullback starts. If the market gets there, and does not
reverse, then something odd is going on and it could mean a
little melt up towards 1351.50-1352.50 area but probably not
too much further.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1345.75-1346.25
1348.00-1348.50
1351.50-1352.50
1357.75-1358.25

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1344.00
1341.00-1340.50
1337.50-1336.75
1333.25-1332.50
1328.25-1327.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2377.75-2378.50
2382.00-2383.00
2388.50-2389.50
2396.75-2398.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2374.00-2373.50
2366.50-2365.50
2357.50-2357.00
2346.25-2344.50
2338.50-2337.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Monday  May 30, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 30 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 12:26 pm eastern time, 5/30/2011

The market gapped down from 1327 on the ES last Monday and
fell to 1308.75 by Wednesday morning to fill a gap left from
April 19 (at the listed 1309.50 level) as the market was
getting oversold. The ES turned back up and rallied back to
fill the gap left from Monday's lower open at 1327.00 by
Thursday afternoon, then pulled back again. On Friday that
1327 level was cleared and then turned into support. An
early rally was reversed at 1332.00 on Friday, and the first
pullback was then reversed back up after reaching 1326.75. A
rally to the 1332.75-1333.50 area failed (1333.75 was the
high) and then a drop back to that 1327.00 level occurred
again. Buying and short covering gave the market a lift back
to the 1330.50 afternoon high just before the close.

The market has been up 3 days in a row and the internal
gauges went from oversold to overbought in a hurry. My RBI
Oscillator is in sell territory and the 3 day thrust is at
+.67 (+/- .50 a normal extreme). That combo is something
that normally stops the upside, and more often then not will
usher in a decent selloff. This overbought combo last
occurred on May 10TH and the SP500 dropped 15 points on a
closing basis the next day. The Vix gave 1 of a possible 5
sell signals at Friday's close, and could give a couple of
others if it reverses on Tuesday. On the plus side, the
selloff to the 1308.75 low was reversed, and that was right
at the gap area, and it was defended. Also, once again the
SP500 did not spend much time under its 50 day moving
average before popping back over it. Another drop back under
that 50 day moving average will likely stick and bring on a
deeper drop.

The key on Tuesday will be holding that 1327 area on a dip,
it appears. On Tuesday we get the Chicago PMI at 9:45AM and
the Consumer Confidence release 30 minutes into the trading
day. If the initial resistance is not cleared / held or the
initial support is not defended, then the market is back in
some trouble again and bounces should be sold. If instead
the ES holds over the initial resistance areas, then a push
up towards the next resistance zones is likely in the cards
before a pullback occurs. If the ES does that, then the
pullback will need to hold around the Friday close at 1330
area, or quickly reverse if that's broken. Otherwise a test/
break of the 1327 area is next and possibly drop right
through it, and then head towards the next support zones to
see if there is a chance to get turned back up or continue
lower.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1331.50-1332.00
1334.25-1335.00
1338.25-1339.00
1342.25-1343.00

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1328.75
1327.00-1326.50
1323.25-1322.50
1318.00-1317.25
1312.50-1312.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2336.25-2337.00
2342.50-2344.00
2348.50-2349.50
2353.25-2354.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2331.00
2329.75-2328.75
2322.50-2322.00
2314.00-2312.25
2306.25-2305.25

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Thursday  May 26, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 26 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:26 pm eastern time, 5/26/2011

The ES opened at the 1315.50-1315.00 initial support and
bounced 4.50 points to 1319.25 (just under key 1320 area)
and then dropped to the 1312.50 support. A bounce to to
1317.50, (60EMA on 5 min chart) failed, and made a wedge
pattern formed in the process. That was broken and a drop
back to 1312.50 followed. Buyers stepped in and a bounce
took out 1315.50 and continued to grind higher to test the
1324.00-1324.50 resistance zone. A rejection of this area
set up a scalp short, but 1322.50 held on the dip and then
another push higher took the ES to the 1327.00-1327.75 zone
before backing off. A dip held at 1323.50 and bounced back
to 1327.00 again, then a another drop reached 1323.25 around
the 4 PM close for stocks. Buying/ short covering came in
and 1327.00 was reached again just before settling.

The futures finally showed the ability to hold gains for a
switch on Thursday. The ES settled about 3 points above fair
value, so they need to hold the initial support on a
pullback or the move will begin to roll over. That also
coincides with the 60 period EMA on the 5 minute chart which
was a transition area on Thursday. On the top side, the
1327.00-1327.75 resistance on the ES was rejected twice late
on Thursday, so the end of day range should be important.
The initial support area held twice on dips also.

The daily internal gauges that were a bit oversold 2 days
ago are just 1 more up day away from getting overbought, so
I'm not expecting this to go too far before getting into
trouble again. On Friday morning I have no interest in
chasing an early rally, especially with the futures settling
well over fair value. We also get the Michigan Sentiment at
9:55 AM and then Pending Home Sales at 10:00 AM. If there is
early strength, it will likely be a gift shorting
opportunity for a test of the initial support areas. If
those areas are held again on a pullback, then the market
could get legs and run up and take out the initial
resistance and head towards the next resistance zones.
However, if the initial support zones are not held, then the
move is getting turned back down again and bounces should
then fail.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1327.50-1328.00
1330.50-1331.00
1332.75-1333.50
1336.50-1337.25

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1
1323.50-1323.00
1318.00-1317.50
1313.00-1312.50
1310.00-1309.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2328.50-2329.00
2331.50-2332.00
2337.50-2338.50
2346.50-2348.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2323.25-2322.50
2314.00-2312.50
2302.50-2301.75
2296.50-2294.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Wednesday  May 25, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 25 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:36 pm eastern time, 5/25/2011

In last night's update, I said to look for early weakness to
be bought and then for the first good bounce to fail. The ES
opened down 4.50 points and filled the gap left at 1309.50,
then traded up from the 1308.75 to 1315.00. That set up a
trade on the short side around 9:50AM as the bounce stalled
and pulled back at 1315.00, right at the 20 EMA on the 5-
minute chart and just under the published 1315.50 resistance
area. The pullback held just above the 1310.25-1309.50 zone
on the pullback, and then the market reversed and traded
higher to 1321.25 just before 12:00PM. That was sold, and
unable to get back over 1320 it lead to a drop to 1316.50
and the market turned back up. Around 3PM the ES took off
higher and reached 1324.50 in about 15 minutes. That was it
for the run-up, and the move gathered steam when 1322.50
wouldn't hold and and stayed trend down to 1316.25 as the
futures settled a bit under fair value on Wednesday.

The ES had a lower low and a higher high than it had on
Tuesday, and closed the day about in the middle of that
range. The short term internal gauges moved out of oversold
territory, so that prop has been removed. The action
continues to be poor, with bounces not able to hold. This
keeps trapping buyers chasing the move up, leaving more
resistance to cut through on bounces. Absent some kind of
spark, the bounces should continue to fail.

Don't expect early strength to hold on Thursday, as it will
take a break/ hold over the initial resistance areas (not a
rejection, which is expected) to dent the late Wednesday
downside momentum. A pop up there should be sold and a drop
that doesn't hold the 1315.50-1315.00 area on the ES opens
the door for a drop to at least the 1312.50 level, maybe
lower. If the market opens lower, then a bounce back is
likely but the initial resistance will still likely be sold.

IF the initial resistance areas are exceeded, then a
pullback should hold the 1316.25 area on a dip to avoid that
deeper pullback that is expected. If the 1320.00-1320.50
area on the ES is exceeded, and can hold on a dip, then move
to test/ break the Wednesday highs should be reversed. If
it's not, things could change short term at least until a
move to 1327-1328 is achieved where there should be strong
resistance.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1320.00-1320.50
1324.00-1324.50
1327.00-1327.75

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1315.50-1315.00
1312.25
1310.75-1310.25
1308.75-1308.00
1306.25-1305.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2314.75-2315.50
2320.75-2321.75
2327.50-2328.50
June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2307.50-2306.50
2304.00
2302.00-2301.50
2297.25-2396.75
2292.50-2292.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday  May 24, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 24 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:36 pm eastern time, 5/24/2011

In last night's update, members were told that the markets
were close to being oversold, but in order to rally higher,
both the ES and NQ needed to trade above and hold initial
resistance zones. The ES gapped up nearly 5 points to open
at 1319.50. An early short scalp trade opportunity presented
itself when the initial published resistance zone of
1319.50-1320.50 was rejected 7 minutes into the trading day
(after having been sold several times during the overnight
session). After the pullback, the ES spiked to a morning
high of 1322.50 around 10 AM on economic news. That high was
sold and a bounce failed, which resulted in the ES trading
down to 1315.75 (yesterday's closing bar high) by 10:40 AM.
After a failed bounce around the 1318.50 area, it set up a
good short trade, as the ES traded down to 1313.00 just
after 12:30 PM, which was in the next published zone of
1313.50-1313.00. The first test of that zone was rejected,
which setup a good long scalp trade. The market then made
several failed attempts to break above 1315.50 resistance
before reversing at a new low of 1311.50 around 1:40 PM. A
bounce then took out 1315.50 and held on a dip and a move to
the 1318.50 level (1317.50-1318.50 new key resistance)
occurred, but the ES couldn't push through and the market
rolled over and dropped to test the lows just before
settlement.

This market cannot get anything going that wants to hold,
more so on the upside. The indicators are still teetering on
getting oversold, but the price erosion is going to take
repair work. Favoring the short side after a decent move up
fizzles is still the best course of action until things
change short term.

On Wednesday look for early weakness to be bought, and if
that plays out then the first decent bounce should be sold
if the market is still weak. If that occurs and a bounce
fails again near 1315.50 on the ES, then the bulls need to
defend the 1310.25-1309.50 zone on the ES when it gets
tested. Beware of a bounce attempt from that area, but it
will need some power or it will fail again. If there is no
sign of getting a bounce from the 1310.25-1309.50 area on
the ES then the market is under pressure and could drop to
the 1300 area on the SP500 cash before a low is in place. To
get buyers back and avoid more trouble on Wednesday, a move
over the 1319.50 area is needed and must hold up there,
otherwise it's a trading range at best short term.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1315.50
1318.25-1318.75
1322.00-1322.75
1327.50-1328.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1312.25-1312.00
1310.25-1309.50
1306.25-1305.50
1301.00-1300.50
1297.50-1296.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2305.25
2310.25-2310.75
2317.25-2318.25
2323.75-2325.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2299.75-2298.75
2293.25-2292.50
2286.00-2285.00
2278.50-2277.50
2270.00-2268.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday  May 23, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 23/ 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:46 pm eastern time, 5/23/2011

The ES gapped down over 12 points on Monday, dropped to test
the pre-open low 1312.25 and turned up. A scalp trade on the
long side was setup when the ES reversed the morning low of
1312.25 after opening in the 1315.50-1314.50 zone in the
first 5 minutes of trading and bounced up 1317.50 before
pulling back. For about the next hour and a half, the ES
traded up and down in a 4.50 point range between 1313.5-
1318.00, before breaking out to the downside and drifting to
the daily low of 1310.75 around 12:15 PM. That was just
above the gap fill areas and the market turned back up
quickly from that low. The ES traded back up into the
1315.50-1314.50 zone and stalled for another hour and a half
before breaking out to the upside and putting in the daily
high of 1319.75, just above the listed 1318.50-1319.00 zone.
The 1319.75 was sold and a test of the high that was
rejected around 3:10 PM setup a decent short trade. After
the rejection, the ES traded back down to 1313.75 before
closing the day at 1314.75.

The internal gauges are close to oversold extremes, and at
the point where a decent bounce could come at any time.
However, better to stay with the short side until the market
shows some sign of strength, or a test of lower levels gets
reversed. Also, the SP500 cash and futures both just missed
filling the gap from April 20, and it would be odd to go
this far and not finish that off.

If there is early weakness on Tuesday, and the 1309.50 area
on the ES is tested and reversed, then a decent bounce could
get underway. However, if that area is not held, then a drop
to the 1306.25-1305.50 area should be reversed back up to
avoid trouble. If a break of that zone is not reversed, then
we could see the ES go under 1300 on this leg down.

If the market can rally instead, and both the ES and the NQ
get can over the initial resistance zones and then hold
around those without much of a dip (instead of being
rejected if still a weak market), then a push towards the
1323.75-1324.25 area would be possible before the market
gives a pullback. IF the market gets that far, and the ES
can then hold over 1320 on a dip, then one more push up to
the 1327-1328 area would be possible.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1319.50-1320.50
1323.75-1324.25
1327.25-1328.00
1332.75-1333.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1313.50-1313.00
1310.00-1309.50
1306.25-1305.50
1301.00-1300.50
1297.50-1296.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2323.75-2325.00
2334.25-2335.50
2342.75-2344.50
2352.50-2353.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2313.75-2312.75
2305.50-2304.75
2296.50-2294.75
2286.00-2285.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Sunday  May 22, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 22 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 5/22/2011

We had a good week last week, as the market had reactions at
both support and resistance zones in volatile action. On
Thursday night I stated that if the ES did not stay above
the published initial support zone of 1340.75-1340.25 on
Friday morning, the market characteristics were changing and
the published 1331.50-1330.50 support zone could be seen on
Friday. That area was rejected just before stocks opened,
then the market was sold hard after about 5 minutes and
dropped to 1330.50 before a bounce occurred. That failed and
the last listed support at the 1328.50-1327.50 zone on the
ES was reached, and then a bounce occurred. That got legs
but the move failed at the 1340.25 level on the ES and
pulled back. A failure at 1338.25 occurred and then 1336
broke and that started a drop that took the market down to
new daily lows just before the close.

The market is still acting poorly, despite the intraday
bounces. The market got oversold and bounced from 1316.00 on
the ES, but at the top of the range the sentiment became too
frothy, and again the 1340 area was unable to hold. A
rolling top is in place on the daily charts, and a close
over 1346 on the SP500 Cash will be needed to break this
bearish pattern.

On Monday look for early weakness to be bought, as a short
covering bounce should occur unless the market is in more
serious trouble. If that pays out, expect the move to fizzle
out and reverse if the initial resistance is tested. If the
market is still weak, then a bounce shouldn't stick and the
downside should get momentum if the 1330 area is then cut
back through on a drop. If there is a drop back to the
1319.00-1318.50 area, and the move reverses back up from
there, then a decent sized bounce could get in gear. If that
area is reached, and shows no sign of a reversal, then the
1315.50-1314.50 area is a major area on Monday. A rally
needs to start from there, or else the 1309.50 gap could be
filled before a good rally gets started.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1332.75-1333.50 *key early
1335.75-1336.25
1338.25
1340.50-1341.25 *major Monday
1344.50-1345.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1326.50-1325.50 *key early
1322.25-1321.75
1319.00-1318.50 *strong
1315.50-1314.50 *major Monday
1310.25-1309.50 *gap fill area

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2352.50-2353.50 *key early
2357.25-2358.00
2363.25
2368.50-2369.25 *major Monday
2373.50-2374.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2342.00-2341.25 *key early
2336.25-2335.25
2328.25-2327.50 *strong
2318.25-2317.50 *major Monday
2310.25-2308.75 *gap fill area

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Thursday May 19, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 19 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:20 pm eastern time, 5/19/2011


Members were told before the open (via instant message) to
expect two-sided action after yesterday's trend up day, with
the expectation that strength would be sold and pullbacks
bought. A good early short opportunity presented itself
after the ES gapped up over 4 points and traded higher to
the published 1344.75-1345.25 resistance zone, which was
rejected. The rejection resulted in the ES trading down to
fill the gap at yesterday's close by around 10:15 am. The
market then bounced up to the published 1340.50-1341.25 zone
where it stalled until around 10:45 am, when it sold off to
the 1335.25-1334.75 fixed support zone and put in the daily
low of 1334.50 around 11:15 am. The ES then reversed and
traded back up to 1342.50 before a small pull back around
12:45 pm. In the afternoon, the ES bounced back up to make a
small double to at the 1343.25-1343.50 area before pulling
back to test the 1336 area. Starting around 2:45 pm, the ES
got itself turned back around and rallied back to 1342 just
before the close.

The short term indicators are still a little bit away from
getting overbought, but the sentiment sure is getting a bit
frothy again. The action on Thursday was skittish, but with
the bounces not able to stick, the ability to move higher
shouldn't be easy. At best expect another 2-sided day if the
1343 area is exceeded. If they get through that and not
quickly reverse, then a pop up to the 1344.75-1345.25 area
will be reversed if the market is weak. If that area is
exceeded then we could see the 1349.50-1350.50 area get a
test, but that's as far as a bounce should go really.

If the bulls don't step in and keep the market above the
initial support, a high should be in as that should start
another roll over and test the next support areas which are
looking like key areas short term. If the market drops back
to that area for a third time in 2 days, it needs to spring
right back up or else there is something changing again and
a test of the 1331.50-1330.50 area would be in the cards on
Friday.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1342.50-1343.00
1344.75-1345.25 *key
1349.50-1350.50 *strong

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1340.75-1340.25 *must hold
1335.25-1334.75 *key
1331.50-1330.50 *major Friday
1328.50-1327.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2369.50-2370.00
2372.75-2373.50 *key
2382.00-2383.00 *strong

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2366.25-2365.75 *must hold
2358.75-2358.25 *key
2348.00-2346.75 *major Friday
2337.25-2336.25

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday May 17, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 17 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 8:03 pm eastern time, 5/17/2011

Last night I stated:
"On Tuesday expect follow through weakness to be
bought, and then the first decent bounce should set up
a better shorting opportunity. Look for initial
resistance at the 1328.00-1328.50 area (old key
support) to be sold if the market is still very weak."

The ES gapped down at the open and reversed at 1320.00, just
below the published 1321.50-1320.50 zone. It then traded up
to the 1328.00-1328.50 zone around 10:30AM before sharply
reversing and putting in a morning low of 1318.25 around
11:30AM. After putting in the low, the ES bounced to 1323.75
before quickly pulling back, and then trading back up to
1327.50 around 3PM. After a final pullback to the 1323.75
updated support held, the ES got back to 1327.25 but refused
to break out and settled at 1325.50.

The daily internal gauges are oversold, and the market
changed its character a bit after noon on Tuesday. For now
it looks like a short term low could be in at the 1316 area
on the ES and the 2318.25 area on the NQ. Both reversed from
just over support zones and the market held late day for a
switch. However, with the damage done recently, the upside
shouldn't be an easy ride. Some spurts higher, then decent
pullbacks, are likely on a move higher. If a pullback breaks
the initial support areas, an instant turn back up will be
needed to keep the market away from trouble on Wednesday. If
the initial support is broken and not quickly reversed, then
a move back to the next support areas could in the cards
before buyers come back to move things back up.

NOTE: I will be away on Wednesday until the late afternoon.
I'll do my best to send an update on Wednesday night, but
need to see how things turn out. I will update on Thursday
morning via instant message if not able to send a nightly
update. My apologies, hopefully things get back to more
normal next week.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1327.50-1328.50
1332.50-1333.25
1335.75-1336.25
1338.00-1338.75

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1323.75-1323.25
1320.75-1320.00
1315.50-1314.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2342.75-2344.00
2349.75-2350.75
2357.25-2358.50
2362.25-2364.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2334.00-2331.75
2327.00-2328.00
12308.50-2307.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

 

Monday May 16, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 16 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:30 pm eastern time, 5/16/2011

Going into Monday's trading, members were advised to look
for ES to reverse weakness within the first 40 minutes if
the if the 1328.50-1327.50 area was held. The ES gapped down
on the open, then a reversal off 1328.00 about 10 minutes in
(1328.50-1327.50 key support zone) brought in buying and a
rally to/ through the 1338.50-1339.00 resistance occurred on
the way to a 1341.25 high. We switched sides after the 1338
level was broken as the dynamics changed, and a bounce back
to that 1338 level was rejected before the drop to 1329.50
around noon. A bounce to 1335.25 followed, and that
coincided with the 60 period ema on the 5 minute chart and
was rejected. The move up also formed a rising wedge
pattern, and after breaking 1333 the move accelerated down
to test 1328.75 and bounced again. That bounce failed at
1333.25 just after 3pm, then lead by a very weak NQ a drop
to 1324.75 new low on the ES was made with about 10 minutes
left in stock trading. A bounce to 1328.25 at 4pm was
rejected and the ES dropped back to 1325.25 just before
settlement.

We sure had a sentiment shift over the past few trading
days. There hasn't been any capitulation yet, and the trends
and momentum are in favor of the bears short term. The daily
indicators are a day away from getting oversold, possibly 2
more days. In any case, don't expect the bounces to stick
just yet, as now a lot of "bottom pickers" are left trapped
above. On Tuesday expect follow through weakness to be
bought, and then the first decent bounce should set up a
better shorting opportunity. Look for initial resistance at
the 1328.00-1328.50 area (old key support) to be sold if the
market is still very weak. If exceeded, then a bounce
towards the 1332.50-1333.25 area (likely below that) should
be as far as the market gets before another bout of selling.

It will take a move over that 1332.50-1333.25 area to take
some pressure off, and possibly get the bulls interested in
buying a pullback that stalls/ reverses from the 1328 area.
That looks like what it will take to avoid more trouble on
Tuesday. Otherwise, a bounce that stalls out should set up
shorting opportunities as the market moves towards the gap
left on April 20th gap up open.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1328.00-1328.50
1332.50-1333.25
1335.75-1336.25
1338.00-1338.75

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1325.25-1324.75
1321.50-1320.50
1315.00-1314.25
1310.00-1309.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2337.50-2338.00
2344.25-2345.00
2349.75-2350.75
2358.25-2360.50
1315.00-1314.25
1310.00-1309.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2337.50-2338.00
2344.25-2345.00
2349.75-2350.75
2358.25-2360.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2330.00.2329.25
2326.75-2325.50
2317.25-2316.75
2308.50-2307.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

 

Sunday May 15, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 15 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 5/15/2011

The market rallied early last week, but on Wednesday the
dynamics changed early in the day and the bears took
control. After falling from 1356.50 on Wednesday morning,
the ES fell to 1328.75 on Thursday morning and then put
together a decent rally. That move stalled out at the
breakdown area, and the pop up open on Friday morning was
sold at the 1348.50 level and the action turned ugly again.
An 18.50 point drop to 1330.50 occurred a bit before 12:30
pm, then a reflex rally was sold once the momentum died at
the 1338.50 level. That level was tested twice, then with 90
minutes left in stock trading a drop back to 1333.00
followed while the NQ tanked to 2369.00 at the close.

The indicators have been doing a good job getting the
overbought and oversold areas. At Tuesday's close both the 3
day thrust and RBI oscillator were both in sell territory,
and that combo gave good odds for lower prices. At the
moment most indicators are neutral. The only thing can is
considered as bullish is the 3 days in a row with a closing
Trin above 1.20, and 5 days in a row closing above 1.00.
Under normal conditions, this is considered short term
bullish.

The price action leaves a lot to be desired. The SP500 cash
and futures have been in a range since the 42 point drop off
the May 2nd high by the ES. If the market cannot stay over
the 1328 area listed all week, then a slide towards the
1315.50-1314.50 could occur over the next few days before a
good rally can get underway again. For now the market
remains vulnerable unless the initial resistance is
exceeded, then can hold on a dip.

So, on Monday look for early weakness to be reversed in the
first 40 minutes at the latest if the 1328.50-1327.50 area
is held. If that occurs, don't overstay your welcome because
a bounce should fail. On the other side of the coin, if
there is early strength, that should set up a better
shorting opportunity if the move stalls/ reverses around the
1338 area. That is a 10 point range that needs held on a
breakout to either either side. If the 1328.50-1327.50 area
breaks, and not reversed right back up, then there is still
a gap on the daily chart between 1323.50 and 1309.50 from
the April 20th gap up open. A drop to the 1315.50-1314.50
area, if seen this week, would be an equal move down and
probe that gap, and likely be a key area to reverse back up
from if that is reached.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1336.00
1338.50-1339.00 *key
1342.75-1343.00
1347.75-1348.75 *short term major

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1333.00-1332.50
1328.50-1327.50 *key
1325.50-1325.00
1321.50-1320.50
1315.50-1314.50 *major

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2375.25
2383.50-2385.00 *key
2389.75-2391.25
2397.00-2397.75 *short term major

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2368.50-2367.50
2360.50-2358.75 *key
2354.25-2352.75
2344.00-2342.50
2336.50-2335.50 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday May 12, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
5 / 12 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:14 pm eastern time, 5/12/2011

The ES opened lower and went trend down to to 1328.75 in the
first 16 minutes, bounced to the 1333.00 low from Wednesday,
then dropped to a slightly higher low and turned up. There
was good buying off of that double bottom and the market
moved back up. After up and down action during the morning,
the bulls took control around 11 am and the ES trended up to
the published resistance area of 1345.75-1346.25, where it
stalled before putting in the daily high of 1348.75. After
that, the market pulled back to 1343 around 3 pm, then
bounced to 1347.75 into the the close.
The market had a lot of swings even though the move was
basically trend up after the first 30 minutes of trading.
These were the swings of about 4 ES points on Thursday:

1328.75
1333.00 +4.25
1329.25 -3.75
1336.50 +7.25
1331.25 -5.25
1340.75 +9.50
1336.50 -4.25
1348.75 +12.25
1343.00 -5.75
1348.00 +5.00

On Friday we get PPI and at 9:55 am we get the Michigan
Sentiment release. The end of day action on Thursday kept
the market in an uptrend. The ES almost is back to its
breakdown area from Wednesday, which should be key early on
Friday. The ES needs to get over that resistance, not reject
it, and stay over it to get another squeeze higher going.
Unless that occurs, the market is vulnerable as a decent
pullback should occur before the market gets buyer's
interest. A move to the 1343.00-1342.25 area is as far as a
pullback should go if the market is going to avoid some
trouble on Friday.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1
1349.75-1351.00
1355.75-1356.50
1360.00-1361.00

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1
1343.00-1342.25
1337.25-1336.50
1328.50-1327.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1
2413.50-2415.00
2422.00-2423.00
2432.00-2432.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1
2395.00-2393.50
2384.00-2383.25
2374.50-2373.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday May 11, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

5 / 11 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 5/11/2011

The ES opened lower on Wednesday and dropped to 1348.25
(1348.75-1348.00) zone, then a bounce to 1351.50 followed.
That was the pivotal support, which turned resistance after
broken, and that set up a drop to next support. The 1345.75
(1346.00-1345.50 support) gave a small bounce, but that fell
shy of the updated 1349.50 level by 1 tick, then broke the
low and accelerated lower. The 1335.50-1334.75 support was
reached and gave a bounce but it failed at 1340.00 new
resistance and fell back again, spilling to 1333.00 a bit
after 2 pm. The ES then bounced to 1338.00 and was sold and
a test of the low was quickly reversed. The ES bounced back
to the 1339.75 level, which was sold, and then dropped to
1335.50. Buying/ short covering started with 30 minutes left
and the ES reached 1340.50 just before the close.

With my 3 Day Thrust and RBI oscillators in sell mode, the
market fell back to planet Earth on Wednesday. Before the
open I mentioned that the TVIX should jump in the morning.
The TVIX opened at 22.26 and rallied to 24.28, just over 9%
on that move, before it pulled back. I also stated that the
market dynamics would change if the initial published
1352.25-1351.50 support zone was broken. That was the high
of the day, and key now if a bounce attempt gets legs.

On Thursday look for early strength to be sold, and then if
a pullback holds the 1335.00-1335.25 area a bounce is
possible. If there is no sign of a bounce, then it's down to
the 1332.50-1331.75 area before a bounce attempt. If they
hold under 1335 on a bounce, then look for a rebound if the
1327.50-1326.75 is reached, and quickly reversed. To avoid
trouble, the 1340 area needs cleared, then held on a dip and
quickly pushed higher. Otherwise, the market is still in
short term trouble.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1340.00-1340.75
1345.75-1346.25
1349.75-1350.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1335.25-1335.00
1332.50-1331.75
1327.50-1326.75
1323.50-1322.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2395.50-2397.00
2402.50-2404.00
2408.75-2410.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2384.00-2383.25
2374.50-2373.50
2363.50-2362.50
2356.00-2354.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday May 10, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

5 / 10 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:04 pm eastern time, 5/10/2011

At the open, the ES gapped up over 4 points higher from
Monday's close. During the first few minutes of trading, the
initial 1346.75 resistance area was broken and held after a
test of yesterday's double top highs. From there, the ES
traded up to break and hold the next resistance area at
1347.75-1348.25. After this, the market trended up to the
1351.75-1352.50 resistance zone, which it rejected several
times shortly before 10:30AM. This move resulted in morning
high of 1351.75. After 2.25 point pullback, the ES attempted
to to test the 1351.75 high on a bounce but failed at
1351.75. After stalling for about 15 minutes, it reversed
back down to the 1347.75-1348.25 area around 11:30AM, which
turned into new support. From about 11:30am until just after
2:00PM, the ES traded in a dull 3-point range between 1348-
1351. Around 2:15PM the range was broken on a bounce to
1351.50, then that was followed by a pullback to 1349.25.


After that, the ES bounced back to take out the 1351.5 area
and broke to the upside on a strong bullish move around
2:40PM. This took the ES to a new high for the day at
1356.50 about, 1 point under the next resistance zone. After
that, the ES sold off during the last 45 minutes of trading
and closed at the 1353.75 area.

The three day rally has put the short term internal gauges
into extreme overbought territory. My RBI Oscillator is in
sell territory, and my 3 Day Thrust Oscillator reached +.72
at Wednesday's close. The volume has been very light for 2
days running now, and complacency is returning. The VIX
dropped more than 7%, and the buy signals from a few days
ago have been relieved.

Trends and momentum are both up, so a two-sided day is
likely on Wednesday. The key area to hold on a pullback is
the 1352.25-1351.50 zone on the ES. If broken, the dynamics
change and bounces should fail. If held, then no price
damage is done and the bulls are still in charge. The
1357.75-1358.50 area will be strong resistance and should be
rejected the first attempt. If that area is pushed through
instead, and not quickly reversed, then a test of the
1361.50-1363.00 area is likely before the market backs off.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1355.50
1357.75-1358.50
1361.50-1363.00
1366.20-1367.25

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1352.25-1351.50 key
1348.75-1348.00 strong
1346.00-1345.50
1343.00-1342.25
1340.50-1340.00 major

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2411.75
2414.25-2415.00
2422.50-2424.00
2430.50-2432.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2406.25-2404.75 key
2398.25-2397.50 strong
2394.75-2394.00
2389.75-2388.75 minor
2382.75-2381.75 key

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Monday- May 09, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

5 / 9 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:46 pm eastern time, 5/9/2011

The ES tested and rejected the 1339.50-1340.25 key area 3
times after the open then dropped to 1334.75 before bouncing
back. The ES took out 1340 then held at 1340.25 on a dip,
and then ran up to 1346.25 before pulling back. That dip
held 1342.50, then bounced back to test the high. That was
reversed and the market dropped into the close.

The ES made a little double top at 1346.25 as the bids dried
up and the market refused to even try to push through that
again. The extreme oversold conditions are just one day away
from getting overbought, so expect bounces to fail on
Tuesday until there is a decent sized pullback. A drop to
test the 1340 area should be easy in the early going, and
possibly quite a bit lower. If there is an early pop up and
that reverses from the initial resistance areas, or lower,
then that should start a decent pullback.

If the 1340 area is not defended and the 1335.50-1334.75
support area is reached, and not quickly reversed back up,
then a move to last week's lows could be in the cards yet
before a bounce occurs. If that area is reversed, then a
bounce back needs to get over 1340 again and hold to change
the trend.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1346.75
1347.75-1348.25
1351.75-1352.50
1357.75-1358.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1340.50-1340.00
1335.50-1334.75
1332.50-1331.75
1327.50-1326.75
1323.50-1322.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2398.00
2400.50-2401.25
2409.50-2410.50
2419.75-2422.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2374.00-2372.75
2368.00-2366.50
2363.50-2362.50
2356.00-2354.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Sunday- May 08, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

5 / 8 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 5/8/2011

Last week started with a higher open on the news that bin
Laden was killed. The market euphoria didn't last, as the
technical condition changed after the first sizable pullback
in 2 weeks occurred. By Thursday afternoon the ES reached
1325.25, which was 42 ES points off of Monday's high. The
market got oversold and rallied early on Friday, but that
failed just under 1352 on the EA before noon and the move
reversed. A 20 point drop to 1331.75 occurred before a
decent bounce, but that failed at the updated 1339.50-
1340.50 zone and fell 5.75 points into settlement.

The oversold status was pretty much erased on Friday, except
for the Vix which gave a couple of buy signals. At this
juncture it looks like we can expect the volatility to
continue. The bounces are not able to stick, so any trades
on the long side are "hit and run" trades. The short side
should still offer better opportunities until things change.
To get out of trouble for a bit, the initial resistance
areas need to be cleared and then held as support on a dip.
Lower prices are in the cards unless that happens. And
although they can catch a bid from lower prices, clearing
that initial resistance and holding, not reversing back
down, is key to take some pressure off.

On Monday look for early weakness to set up a reversal back
up in the first 20-40 minutes. If there is a higher open
instead, and the initial resistance is rejected, then that
should also reverse in the first 40 minutes. If the bounces
don't stick and the 1332.50-1331.75 area on the ES is
reached and not reversed with good buying, then a move
towards the 1323.50 level is likely yet on this leg down.
There is a gap on the daily chart (regular trading hours)
from big up open on 4/20 between that 1323.50 level and
1309.50, which was the day session high on 4/19. If there is
a bigger move lower still coming, then a drop back to fill
that gap would be key to hold or the market's bigger picture
trends change.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1339.50-1340.25
1343.50-1344.25
1347.75-2348.25
1351.75-1352.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1332.50-1331.75
1327.50-1326.75
1323.50-1322.50
1319.50-1318.50
1310.00-1309.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2385.50-2386.50
2391.75-2393.25
2398.50-2399.25
2409.50-2410.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2368.00-2366.50
2363.50-2362.50
2356.00-2354.50
2348.50-2347.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Tuesday- May 03, 2011

 .................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

5 / 3 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 5/3/2011

*NOTE: I must be away all day on Wednesday and
most of Thursday. Therefore, there will not be any
updates until Friday morning via instant message
after the Employment report. My apologies, I'd
rather be trading, believe me.*

The ES opened at initial support, bounced from 1354.25 to
1356.00, then reversed and dropped to 1352.00. That was over
the key 1351.00-1350.50 zone, and a bounce to 1357.25
stalled/ reversed. After pulling back to 1351.25, a another
bounce to test 1357.00 failed and the market rolled over
shortly after noon. It was trend down from there as the ES
went to a 1345.75 low with about 30 minutes left in stock
trading. The ES reached the 1353.50 level and backed off a
bit into the close.

The market had a back and forth day and closed just under
some resistance on Tuesday. Despite the last hour rally on
Tuesday, the upside still appears to be limited. The
downside should be limited too, as short covering/ buying
came in late Tuesday showing that the bulls have yet to give
up. The last hour mood swing should help keep the market in
a trading range before the Employment data on Friday. If it
cannot, then this market is in for that May correction
again most likely.

On Wednesday look for a higher open to be a gift shorting
opportunity, and then if the initial support areas are
tested/ reversed it could set up a buying opportunity for a
move back to test or break the early highs - if the market
is in good shape. To break down again, the 1350 area would
need to be held under after a break of that area. If the
market dips to the initial support around the 1349.75-
1349.00 area on the ES and the 2384.00-2383.50 area on the
NQ and then turns up, that should get a bounce going IF
there is a low in place. If no quick reversal, then it
breaks a wedge and a test of Tuesday's lows would be in the
cards and must hold there or go to the 1341.00-1340.50 zone
or lower (1337-1335 breakout area next) before a real rally
can begin.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1353.50
1356.50-1357.00
1359.00-1359.50
1362.00-1362.50
1366.50-1367.25

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1349.75-1349.00
1346.50-1345.75
1341.00-1340.50
1337.00-1335.50 *major on ES

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2392.75
2396.75-2397.50
2407.00-2407.75
2410.00-2411.00
2414.50-2415.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2384.00-2383.50
2376.00-2374.50
2270.50-2368.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Monday- May 02, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

5 / 2 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 5/2/2011

The news that bin Laden was killed spiked the ES to the 1373
resistance on Sunday night, and it was downhill from there.
The day session started with a pop up to the 1366.00-1366.50
resistance, then promptly reversed and dropped to 1361.75. A
bounce to a token higher high was reversed at 1367.25, and
after a dip, a pop up to 1367.00 was reversed to make a 1-2-
3 top. The break of 1365.75 triggered stops/ selling and a
drop to 1356.75 followed. It coincided with 12800 on the Dow
cash and 2393.50 support on the NQ and then a bounce got in
gear. However, it failed at the 1362 level (just under
updated 1362.50 level) and a drop to 1355.50-1355.00 support
was met (1354.75 low). With just under 30 minutes left, a
bounce brought the ES back to 1358.25 and settled just under
that.

The upside should certainly be limited now that it showed
it's not a one-way street at these levels. There are buyers
trapped above, and profit taking that was missed on Monday
should occur on another decent move higher. The late
reversal off of the 1355 area on the ES saved the market
from hammering in a top. If that 1355 area is defended on a
pullback on Tuesday, then the market will avoid trouble and
have a chance to test the 1362.00-1362.50 area again before
buyers back off. If that 1355 area is not defended on a
test, then the 1351.00-1350.50 area could be a magnet before
there is a turn back to the upside.

On Tuesday expect early strength to be sold, especially if
there is a rejection of the initial resistance areas. If
that occurs, or that area is poked over and reversed, then a
test of the Monday lows is still likely. If the market gets
back there and firms up, or quickly reverses, then it sets
up a trade on the long side. However, if those initial
support areas show no signs of being bought, then we will
need a good reversal up from the 1351.00-1350.50 area to
avoid trouble on Tuesday.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1359.00-1359.50
1362.00-1362.50
1366.50-1367.25
1370.00
1372.00-1373.00

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1355.00-1354.50
1351.00-1350.50
1347.75-1346.75
1341.00-1340.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2407.00-2407.75
2410.00-2411.00
2414.50-2415.50
2418.50
2422.75-2424.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2394.00-2393.00
2388.50-2387.25
2381.75-2380.50
2270.50-2368.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Sunday- May 01, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

5 / 1 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 5/1/2011

The ES opened higher on Friday and reached 1358.75 (1258.00-
1258.50 resistance) about 15 minutes in, then a drop to
1355.25 stalled out. That was 1 tick above the Thursday
close, then the bulls took control and a bounce back to
1358.25 followed. The ES hesitated there, but then broke
1358 and held it on a dip. That brought in more buying up to
1361.00, then the ES dropped to 1357.50 while the Dow cash
held around 12800 with just under 30 minutes left in stock
trading. The ES got back over 1358.50 and moved back to
1360.25 by the 4 pm close for stocks (while the NQ sold off
to 2402, odd!). Then, when stocks closed, the ES went on a
run up to 1363.75 just before settlement.

Since the April 18th, the market averages have closed higher
on 7 of the last 8 days. On a close to close basis the
market has gained 608.95 points on the Dow cash, 58.47
points on the SP500 cash, and 111.74 points on the Nasdaq
100 cash. The 4 pm run-up on Friday by the ES didn't have
the backing of the NQ. Still, the market reversed up from
what appears to be key areas now around 1358 on the ES and
12800 area on the Dow cash. The settlement price at 1359.75
on the ES and 2400.75 on the NQ was just the "end of month
settlement at fair value" if you are wondering, something
that should be done away with IMHO.

The daily internal gauges are somewhat overbought, but the
trends and momentum are both in favor of the bulls unless/
until those areas are broken. The last leg up was 78.66
points on the SP500 cash in 15 trading days. An equal move
would get the SP500 cash to 1383.80 by May 10th at the
latest. That appears to me the maximum for this rally leg. A
close back under the 1358 area should nullify that however.

On Monday look for early strength to be sold in the first 40
minutes at the latest. If that plays out, a pullback of
about 3-4 points on the ES should hold to keep the upside
momentum. If that occurs, another push higher should coming
and take out the early high. If that does not occur, then a
test of the 1358 area needs to be quickly reversed or else
things could be changing.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1364.00
1366.00-1366.50
1368.25-1368.75
1372.00-1373.00
1384-1385 *major if melt-up

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1359.50-1358.50 [12800 Dow cash]
1355.50-1355.00
1350.25-1349.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2409.75
2412.50-2413.00
2417.50-2418.50
2422.75-2424.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2402.00-2400.50 *key
2394.50-2393.50
2388.50-2387.25

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday- April 28, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 28 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 4/28/2011

The lower open on Thursday was bought and a move to 1354.00-
1354.50 initial resistance was sold. With double tops in
place, a drop held at 1351.50 on four tests, then got going
again on the upside. The ES reached 1355.25 then stalled out
and fell to 1351.00, which coincided with the 60 ema on 5
minute chart and 12700 on the Dow cash. A bounce to 1354.75
occurred, then another pullback to 1351.00 was reversed and
the ES started a grind higher to test the 1355.25 high. A
small dip held 1353.50 trend support, and then with 30
minutes left in stock trading the high was blasted through
and 1358.00 (1357.75-1358.25 zone) was reached in a flash. A
pullback held above 1355.50 new support and popped to
1358.50 then dropped back to 1354.25 just before settlement.

The rush up to 1358.50 resistance was enough to take out
stops, then promptly was reversed back down to end the day
on Thursday. My short term internal gauges reached very
overbought extremes, and that should keep the market from
further melt-up action on Friday. The sentiment and mood has
been very complacent, so downside could get momentum if good
support areas are broken. A break of the 1354.00-1353.50
initial support should mean that the 1350.25-1349.50 will be
seen, at the least. The ES will need to get over 1358, and
hold that on a dip, in order to avoid a move to that area or
lower.

So, on Friday look for early strength to be sold and if the
1354 area is not defended, a drop must be reversed back up
from around the 1350.25-1349.50 zone or higher. If that
doesn't occur then the 1347.50-1346.75 area is in the cards.
There should be a bounce if that is reached, but if not then
1340.50 is major well below if things turn sour. IF the
initial support holds, one last gasp bounce can occur but
then the 1358 area would be a short if a move there stalls/
reverses with a stop just a bit above.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1357.75-1358.25
1362.00-1362.50
1366.00-1366.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1354.00-1353.50
1350.25-1349.50
1347.50-1346.75
1344.50-1344.00
1341.00-1340.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2408.75-2410.00
2416.75-2417.50
2422.75-2424.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2398.50-2397.50
2393.50-2392.50
2388.50-2387.25
2377.00-2376.50
2372.00-2370.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday- April 27, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 27 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:06 pm eastern time, 4/27/2011

The ES opened up at the 1345.75-1346.25 resistance, dropped
to 1343.75, then bounced to 1346.00 and reversed. That led
to a drop to 1340.50, the initial support, then turned back
up. A bounce to 1347.50 followed, then after the Fed release
at noon the ES found good support at 1344.25 on several
tests. The bulls took control and took out 1347.50 and it
held on a small dip as the ES ran through 1349.50-1350.50
easily on the way to 1354.25 with 20 minutes left in stock
trading. A small pullback held the 1350.50 level and then
the ES settled just above it.

On Thursday look for early strength to be sold in to, then
if the initial support areas are tested/reversed, that
should set up a good buying opportunity. If the initial
support is tested, and gets turned back up, then the rally
will continue.

However, if the market shows no sign of holding those
support areas, and is cut through instead, then a move
towards the 1344.50-1344.00 area should be as far as a
pullback would go if the market is still strong. As long as
that zone is held, nothing bad happens. However, if that
area is not seen as a great buying opportunity and quickly
reversed back up, then the market is under pressure and
selling bounces is then the play back towards the 1341.00-
1340.25 zone, now a major support.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1354.00-1354.50 *key early
1357.75-1358.25 *strong
1362.00-1362.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1348.25-1347.75
1344.50-1344.00 *key
1341.00-1340.25 *major

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2412.75-2314.00 *key early
2417.75-2419.50 *strong
2427.50-2428.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2405.00-2404.50
2397.00-2396.25 *key
2388.50-2387.25 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday- April 26, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 26 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:19 pm eastern time, 4/26/2011

The ES gapped up on the open on Tuesday, breaking out above
the February high, and after a dip held the 1334.50 level, a
trend up move to the 1346.25 followed. The NQ made a 1-2-3
top at 2402 while the ES broke 1344 and a pullback to
1341.50 occurred. Another move up was reversed at 1345.50 on
the ES, then again that 1344 level broke, then stayed under
that on a bounce, on the way to the 1340.50-1339.50 zone
just before the close.

On Wednesday we get the Fed decision on interest rate policy
at 2:15pm. The breakout to a new high for the year lost gas
around noon on Tuesday, and the run up to test the highs was
sold and the 1340.50 level was met just before settlement.
There should be some follow through selling early on
Wednesday, as long as the 1344 level is not broken and can
hold at/above that on a dip. Barring that, a break/hold
under 1340.50-1339.50 zone should mean that a move back
towards the 1335.00-1334.50 area is in the cards. If that
area is reached, a quick reversal back up should occur if
the market is going to avoid a bad day.

On Fed days, a trending move into the 2pm timeframe tend to
get reversed. So, beware if we get that kind of action after
the first 40 minutes or so. After the release, if it's not a
non-event, there should be a quick back and forth move and
then after about 20 minutes a trend should get in gear.
Aside from that, with the market so very complacent, heads
up if the initial support is broken and the 1335.00-1334.50
zone gets tested. A bounce from that area should be seen by
traders as a great buying opportunity and run back up
through the 1340 area easily. If that does not occur, or a
bounce then fails at/ near the 1340 area, then it will be a
first sign on a bigger picture that things are changing.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1343.40-1344.00
1345.75-1346.25
1349.50-1350.25

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1340.50-1339.50
1335.00-1334.50
1330.50-1330.00
1326.50-1326.00
1324.00-1323.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2395.25-2396.50
2401.50-2402.50
2308.00-2409.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2382.50-2380.75
2377.00-2376.50
2372.00-2370.75
2365.50-2363.75
2358.50-2354.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday- April 25, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 25 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 4/25/2011

A higher open was sold to 1330.25 initial support, then a
bounce to the 1334.00 initial resistance was rejected twice.
The second test set up a 1-2-3 top at resistance, and then
the ES dropped 6.75 points to 1327.75 just after 11 am
eastern time. The market rallied back at a snail's pace to
1332.75, reaching the 1332.50 upside target, then turned
back down to just above 1330 before chopping and churning
into the close.

The market was very quiet and uneventful after the first 2
hours of trading on Monday. After reaching the 1334 level on
the ES, buyers backed off but the 1330 area was held all
afternoon. To get a reversal and put the market under
pressure, the 1326.50-1326.00 area would need to break, or
be tested and then fail to clear the 1330.50 area on a
bounce. Unless that happens, the market should stay away
from trouble and possibly take out that 1333.50-1334.00 zone
and try to get to/ through the 1340 level on the SP500 cash.
If the market gets to that area and then reverses back to
the downside, then another rejection of the February high
could start something going on the downside.

We get the Consumer Confidence release 30 minutes into
trading on Tuesday. Look for early weakness to set up a
trade on the long side, especially if the 1326.50-1326.00
area gets tested and reverses. If that plays out, beware of
another reversal if the upside stalls out around the 1334
area on the ES and/or 2382 area on the NQ. If the market
gets there and shows no sign of turning back down, then a
move to the 1336.00-1336.50 area would be next, and a test
of that area should be rejected if reached. If it is not
rejected, then the move could extend towards the 1339.50-
1340.50 zone on this leg up.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1333.50-1334.00
1336.00-1336.50
1339.50-1340.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1330.50-1330.00
1326.50-1326.00
1324.00-1323.50
1320.50-1319.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2381.25-2382.50
2386.50-2387.25
2392.50-2394.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2377.00-2376.50
2372.00-2370.75
2365.50-2363.75
2358.25-2357.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Sunday- April 24, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 24 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 4/24/2011

The market was all over the place last week. There was a
17.50 point gap down open on Monday, and a 15.75 point gap
up on Wednesday. On Friday the ES gapped up to 1333.50 and
dropped to 1328.75 (which was the Wednesday closing range)
then it bounced to 1334.00 by mid day. A pullback held
1331.00, but as stocks closed the futures dropped and
reached 1330.50 just before settlement.

After getting oversold last Tuesday, the short term internal
gauges have gone to the other side of their boundaries and
reached an overbought status. The 3 Day Thrust reached +.70
at Thursday's close, and other short term gauges are in
similar condition. The ES and SP500 cash failed the first
try to break the February high, and should back off a bit
due to "profit taking" if nothing else.

The ES filled the gap made on Thursday's open, but the NQ
still has that gap to fill at least before the market gets
its bid back. If there is follow through selling, then the
1326.50-1326.00 area on the ES and the gap area around the
2363.75-2362.50 area on the ES need to be defended, and
quickly reversed on a pullback. If those areas are not
defended, then the dynamics are changing and a deeper drop
is in store. In order to nullify this, the ES will need
another gap up open that holds the 1333.50-1334.00 area on a
dip. Unless that occurs, odds favor a pullback and possibly
a quick, sharp drop if the 1331.50 area turns into
resistance and is rejected on a bounce.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1333.50-1334.00
1336.00-1336.50
1339.50-1340.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1330.50-1330.00
1328.50
1326.50-1326.00
1324.00-1323.50
1320.50-1319.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2377.75-2380.00
2386.50-2387.25
2394.50-2396.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2373.00-2372.00
2366.75
2363.75-2362.50
2355.25-2354.50
2348.25-2347.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

 

Wednesday- April 20, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 20 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 4/20/2011

NOTE: This will be the last nightly update until
Sunday night due to the Good Friday Holiday.

The ES gapped up more than 15 points, and after a dip to
1323.50 updated support, they moved up to 1329.50 before
selling came in. A 4.00 point drop to the 1325.50 level was
reversed, then that pop up was reversed at 1328.75, and with
double tops across the board, the ES dropped 5.00 points to
1323.75. The market got footing then the ES chopped in a
3.00 point range for about 2 hours. A move over 1325.75 held
on a dip before a push up to 1330.50 before the close.

After the bell, earnings reports have the futures trading
higher again as this is being written. Another gap up open
could get the ES to test the February high area, and that
should bring in profit taking at the least. If that occurs,
then a pullback should hold the initial support areas, or
higher, to keep this melt-up in gear. The only way the
market gets into trouble is if a drop back to the 1325.75
area on the ES is not defended as a good buying opportunity.
That was the last transition area on the upside in the last
30 minutes on Wednesday and must hold or a high should be in
place.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1332.00-1332.50
1335.50-1336.25 *very strong
1338.00-1338.50
1341.50-1342.00

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1326.50-1326.00
1324.00-1323.50
1320.50-1319.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2369.50-2370.50
2377.75-2378.25 *very strong
2384.50-2385.50
2391.00-2392.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2353.00-2352.00
2348.25-2347.50
2340.50-2338.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Tuesday- April 19, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 19 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:53 pm eastern time, 4/19/2011

The ES opened higher and reached 1306.25 about 15 minutes
in, then was sold down to 1301.50 where buying came in. That
1301.50 level held and I stated: "A test of the high that
reverses sets up a short with a tight stop" and the ES
bounced to 1305.75 and made a 1-2-3 top before dropping 6.00
points to 1299.75 before noon. A turn back up started there
and broke/held 1302.50, and continued to hold on the 2 point
pullbacks all the way to the 1309.50 resistance just before
the close.

After the close, earning reports have the futures trading
higher and well above the Tuesday high at 1309.50 on the ES.
If this holds up, then that closing range area should hold
on a pullback (setting up a trade on the long side) and
continue on up to test the 1315.00-1315.50 zone, and maybe a
bit more. If there is a run up to that area and it stalls
out, then a tradable pullback on the short side should set
up, especially if the VIX nose dives back to 15.32 and then
turns back up.

If the ES is not able to stay over the 1309.50-1308.75 area,
then a drop towards the 1306.50-1305.75 should be rock solid
support that is reversed fast if it's reached. That area
really shouldn't be seen if the market is still strong. So,
if there is a pullback to that area or a bit above it, that
needs to be seen as a good buying opportunity and get turned
back up, or else there is something changing short term. In
that case, bounces are then shorting opportunities to
1303.00-1302.50 and if something is really wrong then we
could possibly see the 1299.50-1298.50 area tested again.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1312.00-1312.50
1315.00-1315.50
1319.50-1320.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1309.50-1308.75
1306.50-1305.75
1303.00-1302.50
1298.50-1298.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2318.75-2320.25
2324.75-2325.25
2331.25-2332.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2310.50-2308.75
2302.50-2301.75
2293.00-2291.75
2284.00-2282.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Monday- April 18, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 18 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:01 pm eastern time, 4/18/2011

The ES gapped down 17.50 points on Monday's open and fell to
1290.25 before turning back up. After getting to 1296.75 the
ES chopped between that level on top and 1293.00 on the
bottom until finally breaking out. The 1298.25 level was
reached but then the 1294.00 new support held and another
run up took the ES to 1302.25. That was sold, but then the
key 1298 area held on a pullback and the ES pushed up to
1303.75 before pulling back to 1299 before the close.

The market made a really nice comeback on Monday, but
another "V" bottom is unlikely. Lately the market has been
coming back after getting knocked down, but the complacency
could end up leading to a day where the market goes trend
down without the "normal" rally back.

At the close the short term indicators are giving both buy
and sell signals. The Closing Trin above 1.10 for 4 straight
days is normally bullish short term. However, the Vix
reversal from that new 52 week low last Friday gave a couple
of Vix sell signals. This mixed bag usually means there is 2
sided action ahead.

On Tuesday the upside should be limited, but as long as the
ES holds the 1298 area then no damage done. However, if that
area is broken, then a bigger drop will be underway and the
1293.00-1292.50 area could be in the cards again. A move
back down there will need to get turned back up quickly or
it will be digging another hole that will be hard to get out
of short term.

On the upside, should the ES pop up to test the initial
resistance in the first 20-40 minutes, that should be sold
into so early strength sets up a shorting opportunity. If
the 1298 area holds, and then the initial resistance is cut
through without a sign of reversing, then a move towards the
1309.50-1310.25 zone wouldn't be impossible. However, that
appears to be a long shot. But, if that area is somehow
reached on Tuesday it will sold if this action is going to
be two-sided at best.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1303.75-1304.50
1309.50-1310.25
1314.40-1315.50
1319.50-1320.50

June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1298.50-1298.00
1293.00-1292.50
1290.25-1289.75
1288.00-1287.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2292.50-2293.00
2299.25-2300.50
2309.00-2311.00
2315.00-2316.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2276.50-2275.75
2261.00-2259.75
2252.00-2250.50
2246.00-2244.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Sunday- April 17, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 17 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 4/17/2011

Last week the market broke the bottom of a 6 day range and
was sold off hard into mid week. The short term indicators
got very oversold, and by Thursday morning the ES had
dropped 37.50 points from the previous week's high and got
turned back up from just above the 1297.50 support. That
turned into a good low, as the market chopped higher into
Thursday's close.

On Friday, the pop open was sold at the 1313.50-1314.25
resistance and a drop to the key 1309.25-1308.50 zone
followed. The Nasdaq was a different story early, as it fell
much harder. However, bounce from the key early support at
1309.50 got going and was trend up until it stopped just
under the 1317.50 big area, and then a drop to 1310.50
followed. It looked for awhile that the high for the day was
in place, but the ES held over 1316.50 and kept going until
1319.25 was reached. A drop to the 1314.50 support area was
reversed in the last 15 minutes of stock trading and rallied
to 1319.25 just before settlement.

The short term indicators are no longer in oversold
territory, so that prop has been removed short term. The
only indicator that is at a bit of an extreme is the VIX. It
reached a new 52 week low, and the SPX/VIX ratio is higher
than at the February top. However, just one of a possible 5
VIX sell signals was given on Friday. A reversal back up
above 15.98 would be needed to give more than just one sell
signal.

The ES is in a good uptrend, and has had a good bid on dips
of 4.50-6.00 points (maximum) on the ES on the way up. The
1314.25 area on the ES and the 2300 area on the NQ will need
to hold on the next dip, or the pattern
next bounce would then be set up to fail at a lower high. If
that does occur, then expect resistance around the 1316.50-
1317.00 area on a bounce and a move back towards the next
support at the 1310.25-1309.50 area should be in the cards.
However, as long as the 1315.00-1314.25 area is held on a
dip, then the trends stay up and a test of the 1320.50-
1321.50 area is possible before buyers begin to back off and
wait for a bigger pullback to see how things act. A failure
there would set up a shorting opportunity. If that zone is
cut right through, then the 1324.75-1325.50 area could be
seen before a decent sized pullback gets in gear.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1320.50-1321.50 *key early
1324.75-1325.50 [12400 Dow cash] *strong
1328.00-1328.50
1334.00-1336.00


June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1315.00-1314.25 *key
1310.25-1309.50
1306.00-1305.50
1302.25-1301.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2312.50-2314.00 *key early
2318.50-2320.00 *strong
2328.75-2329.50
2339.50-2342.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2301.00-2300.00 *key
2295.00-2294.25
2290.75-2290.00
2285.50-2284.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday- April 14, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 14 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:09 pm eastern time, 4/14/2011

The ES gapped down on the open and fell to 1298.25 (1297.50-
1296.50 support) and reversed and rallied to the 1308 area.
A reversal there gave a drop to 1303.25 level, which was the
opening range, and a turn back up took the ES to 1309.75
which was just over the Wednesday close, and another dip
followed. That held 1306.00 and the ES got back into rally
mode and rallied to 1313.25. That was just under the
1313.50-1314.25 initial resistance zone and the ES dropped
back to 1309.25 before the close.

We had a good reversal and oversold rally from just above
the 1297.50-1296.50 support area on the ES on Thursday. That
should be a short term low, and if so then it's possible
that this move up could last a bit longer. If that 1313.50-
1314.25 zone is not rejected, then we could go back to test
the 1317 breakdown area from last week. If that area IS
reached, then a good shorting opportunity should show again.
For now though, the market still has a lot of work to do to
undo some of the recent damage.

The initial support areas should be pivotal early, and need
to hold or be quickly reversed to keep the upside going. The
ES appears to be in a stronger position is there is more to
go on the upside. The Nasdaq was weaker than the blue chip
Dow and SP500 all day on Thursday and a test of its 2312.00-
2313.00 area should be hard to get through, and not reverse
back down. So, the 1309.25-1308.50 area on the ES will need
to be defended in the early going to get one more push on
the upside. If that occurs, be on look-out for a tradable
reversal when the upside runs out of steam and stalls out.
Buyers should get a fear of being caught buying at a high,
giving a decent pullback to trade.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1313.50-1314.25
1317.50-1318.25
1320.50-1321.00

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1309.25-1308.50
1306.00-1305.50
1303.25-1302.50
1298.25-1297.50
1292.50-1291.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2312.00-2313.00
2319.50-2320.50
2324.50-2326.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2298.75-2297.75
2295.00-2294.25
2290.75-2290.00
2286.00-2285.00
2278.75-2277.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday- April 13, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 13 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:26 pm eastern time, 4/13/2011

The ES gapped up 8+ points and reversed from the 1317.00-
1317.75 zone (1317.50 high), and it was trend down to
1310.75 about 45 minutes in. A bounce back was reversed from
just over 1316, and another drop took the ES to 1305.00 to
barely break Tuesday's low. After a bounce failed at
1309.50, a pullback bounced from 1306.00 and after a bounce
a retest of 1306.00 was reversed. The break/ hold over
1308.50 kept the upside in gear, as the ES reached 1313.75
before pulling back. A test of 1313.75 reversed, and a drop
to 1308.50 support occurred into the close.

We get Initial Claims and the PPI releases before the open
on Thursday. If there is a lower open, and the ES gets to
the 1306.00-1305.00 area and turns back up, it should be the
start of another rally attempt. If that occurs, the move
will set up an even better shorting opportunity if this
action continues. A test of the 1313.50-1314.50 area should
be sold if the market is still in weak hands.

The VIX reached 16.20 intraday Wednesday, lower than it was
when the ES was at 1335, so fear is absent. If there is a
move back to the 1314 area, or possibly another test of the
1317 area and it stalls out/ reverses again, another sizable
pullback would be in the cards.

NOTE: I will be away until around noon on
Thursday. I'll update when I get back and have a
good look at what's occurred to that point.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1313.50-1314.50
1317.50-1318.25
1320.50-1321.00

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1306.00-1305.00
1300.50-1300.00
1297.50-1296.50
1292.50-1291.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2314.75-2315.75
2319.50-2320.50
2324.50-2326.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2297.00-2294.50
2286.00-2285.00
2278.75-2277.50
2270.50-2268.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

 

Tuesday- April 12, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 12 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:50 pm eastern time, 4/12/2011

We had some good set-ups in a two-sided day on Tuesday. The
gap down open reversed up from the 1311.25-1310.50 support
zone on the ES, then the 1315.50 support turned into
resistance on the bounce (proof of a break-away gap), and
the ES dropped in trend down fashion to 1305.25 by 11 am. A
choppy move higher cleared/ held 1310.25 and pushed to
1314.25 on less momentum. That was reversed, and after
staying under 1312 it set up a short and a drop to 1307.25
followed. A bounce back to 1311.25 sold and the ES drifted
lower to 1307.50 just before settlement time.

On Wednesday we get Retail Sales before the open, then at 2
pm we get the Fed's Beige Book release. After spending the
better part of 2 weeks spinning its wheels, the market has
broken down. Pretty soon a decent rally will occur from this
short term oversold condition. Such a move will only set the
stage for another good sized drop however the way the market
has acted this and last week.

If there is early weakness, not more than a 4 point gap down
open, then a snap-back rally should occur so a trade on the
long side should setup early. If that plays out, don't
overstay your welcome as the trend and momentum are still in
the bear's favor. If the ES gets to the 1311.25-1311.75 zone
and stalls out, then another push lower will be in the
cards. However, if a move that holds that zone as support
after breaking over it, then we could get a run up towards
the 1314 late afternoon high area before buyers back off for
fear of being caught near a high. If there is a run up that
cuts right through that area too, then a test of the
1317.00-1317.75 former key support could occur before the
market starts to pull back again. If the ES is falls though
that 1307.50 area, and a bounce then fails at/ under 1307.50
(instead of pushing higher towards 1311.25-1311.75), then
one move push lower towards the 1300 area could occur before
the market reverses back to the upside.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1311.25-1311.75
1314.50-1315.25
1317.00-1317.75

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1307.25
1305.25-1304.50
1300.50-1300.00
1297.25-1296.50
1292.00-1290.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2295.00-2295.50
2302.50-2204.00
2308.50-2309.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2290.25
2287.50-2286.50
2282.00-2280.50
2274.25-2273.50
2265.75-2263.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday- April 11, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 11 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:29 pm eastern time, 4/11/2011

The ES held 1325.50 on the first dip on Monday, and then a
move towards the 1330.50-1331.00 resistance (1330.25 high)
was reversed about 25 minutes into trading and a drop to
1324.50 followed. A reversal back up to test 1328.50
resistance (reversed from 1 tick over that 1328.50
resistance) then as the Dow rolled over the ES followed and
fell to 1320.50. The ES made a little double bottom there
and bounced to 1324, but that stalled/ reversed and gave us
a drop to test the 1318.50-1317.75 zone. A reversal off
1317.00 occurred with an hour left and a bounce reached the
1320.75 break-down area just before the close.

The bigger picture internal gauges are rolling over pretty
hard, however several short term indicators are oversold.
The 3 day thrust is at -.56 and the RBI oscillator reached
an oversold condition. However, the way the market is
acting, it will take more than being oversold to get out of
trouble short term. The last hour bounce formed a rising
wedge pattern, so if the market opens higher and rejects the
initial resistance areas on Tuesday morning, then that
should be a gift shorting opportunity as a drop to test the
Monday lows would be in the cards early on. How the market
handles that test of the lows should be telling. If initial
support is not defended, then bounces are still shorting
opportunities with 1315.50-1314.75 being a target (1319.56
on SP500 cash) and the 1311.25-1310.50 a possibility before
a decent bounce occurs.

However, if there is a decent reversal from that 1317 area
on the ES, then a bounce should still fail near 1321 area.
Sentiment is way too complacent after 3 down days in a row.
The VIX dropped more than 7% as the market moved lower,
which is NOT what you want to see in a downtrend if you are
bullish. The VIX should jump if there is much more downside,
and the VIXY ETF should make a nice move if the market
begins to take a drubbing. The only way the market avoids
trouble on Tuesday is if the 1324.00-1324.50 area on the ES
is cleared, and then can stay there by holding on a
pullback. Don't hold your breath.

*I'll be away on Tuesday from 12:30 pm to near
2:30 pm, not able to update then. My apologies*

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1320.50-1321.00
1324.00-1324.50
1330.00-1330.50
1335.75-1336.25

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1317.50-1317.00
1315.50-1314.75
1311.25-1310.50
1308.50-1307.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2312.50-2313.00
2321.75-2322.50
2330.75-2332.00
2342.75-2344.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2302.50-2301.50
2298.50-2297.50
2291.25-2290.50
2284.00-2282.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Sunday- April 10, 2011

 .................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 10 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:34 pm eastern time, 4/10/2011

On Friday the ES opened up over 6 points and tested the top
of the 6 day range at the key 1335.75-1336.25 resistance.
Once again that offered a good shorting opportunity, and
after a drop of 8.50 points to 1327.25 followed. The ES
bounced to dynamic resistance at 1330.50, and not liking it
up there the ES fell 12 more points to 1318.50 with an hour
to go in the week's trading. That was just over the gap fill
area at the 1317.75 level, and buying/ short covering took
the market back to resistance areas just before the close.

The ES had an outside day on Friday, rolling over from the
top of what was a 6 day trading range on the open, and then
rolling over even sharper when the ES failed to stay over
1330 after a small bounce. The low at 1318.50 was just above
the gap fill area, and that is the key area on a test of the
Friday lows.

The intermediate term gauges have rolled over, and the
string of 5 consecutive closes between 1332.41 and 1335.54
on the SP500 cash was broken on the downside on Friday. The
only positives to come from the action on Friday was the
rebound in the last hour (that started from just above a key
support area), and the short term internal indicators are
modestly oversold.

For now stay with shorting bounces as long as the initial
resistance is not exceeded/ held on a dip on Monday. If it
is cleared, then a move up towards the 1330.50-1331.00 area
should be sold if the market is still weak. If the initial
resistance areas are rejected, and the ES breaks the 1322
area, then a break of a rising wedge will occur and should
set up a drop to test the support around the Friday lows at
the 1318.50-1317.75 area on the ES. A test of the 1317.75
area should be key, and needs to be defended and give a 1-2-
3 pattern or double bottom reversal to avoid trouble.
Otherwise another push lower occurs and if there is no sign
of a reversal from the 1314 area, then things can begin to
unravel.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1325.50-1326.50 {12400 on Dow cash}
1330.50-1331.00
1335.75-1336.25

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1318.50-1317.75
1315.50-1314.75
1311.25-1310.50
1308.50-1307.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2322.75-2324.00
2332.75-2334.00
2342.75-2344.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2304.75-2302.50
2298.50-2297.50
2291.25-2290.50
2284.00-2282.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

 

Thursday- April 07, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 7 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:16 pm eastern time, 4/7/2011

NOTE: Due to the kid's spring break, I will not be
doing any intraday updates on Friday. I will send
support/ resistance and a brief comment *if
possible* on Sunday night. If I'm unable to get
that done, then the next update will be on Monday
morning via instant message.

The ES opened higher on Thursday and ran up to 1335.25 (just
under 1335.75 resistance) and that reversed in the first 40
minutes, then the earthquake in Japan hit the tape and the
ES fell to 1322.25. A quick bounce failed at 1330.25, then
dropped back to test the lows. A reversal of 1323.00 was
tepid at first, then got legs when 1326 was cleared and it
kept going until getting back to the 1332.00 resistance
area. That was sold down to the 1325.00 support, and then a
trading range between 1325 and 1328 developed. A break out
of the range on the upside was met with selling when the Dow
cash tested 12400, but that dip held and the market made one
more push higher into the close.

Well, the market finally had a day with poor breadth and it
gave a trip to the bottom of a 6 day trading range on the
SP500 cash and futures. The cash index has found bottom just
above the 1325 level, and top just under the 1340 level. The
rate of change on the upside has gone flat, and it appears
odds of a break lower outweigh the odds of a breakout over
1340 and test of the February highs.

On Friday look for early strength to be sold, and then if a
pullback can hold that 1325.25-1325.00 area on the ES, we
can get another rally attempt going. That area should be
defended if the market is going to stay above the bottom of
this range. If that area is broken, then the double bottom
at 1323 is just below and is the bottom of this range. A
quick reversal back up would be needed there, or else a
break could lead to a move to the 1317.75-1317.25 area on
the ES, and/or the 1321.89-1319.45 gap on the SP500 cash. If
I'm wrong, and the ES is able to break over the 1333 area and
hold that on a dip, then a breakout to the upside occurs and
then the 1342-1343 could be in the cards short term. Don't
hold your breath.

NOTE: Due to the kids spring break, I will not be
doing any intraday updates on Friday. I will send
support/ resistance and a brief comment *if
possible* on Sunday night. If I'm unable to get
that done, then the next update will be on Monday
morning via instant message.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1329.50-1330.50
1332.50-1333.00
1335.25-1335.75

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1325.25-1325.00
1322.25-1322.00
1317.75-1317.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2334.00-2334.50
2339.50-2340.50
2347.50-2348.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2323.00-2322.25
2312.50-2311.75
2304.25-2303.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday- April 06, 2011
.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 6 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:02 pm eastern time, 4/6/2011

The ES opened up almost 8 points on Wednesday and then
dropped 5 points from 1335.75 to 1330.75 before a bounce.
That bounce stopped and reversed at 1332.50 and a trend down
move to the 1326.75 Tuesday close followed. The market got
its footing and turned back up, staying with a trend line as
support on the way to 1333.00 on the ES. A little double top
formed, and again buyers backed off. That was key, and the
break of the trend line triggered more selling as ES dropped
5 points from 1333 into the close.

The market certainly is showing it's tried, and not liking
to stay over 1333 for long on the ES. On the bottom side,
the 1325.00-1324.25 area was reversed on Monday and hasn't
been tested yet. The sentiment is way too bullish given the
inability to hold on to gains. The daily range for the ES
has been less than 10 points for the last 6 days. The ranges
tend to shrink when the market is making a top. Also, the
breadth on the NYSE has been positive for 7 straight days.
If the market acts this toppy with good internals, a day
with poor internals would be a bit ugly it appears now.

On Thursday we get Initial Claims before the open. The
market is range bound, and nothing good happens on Thursday
unless the initial resistance zones are cleared, then held
on a pullback. If there is a break of the 1328 area on the
ES and/or the 12400 area on the Dow cash, then a drop to
test the 1325.00-1324.25 zone could be in the cards. That is
the bottom of this range, and will need to be quickly
reversed, otherwise a break of the range is occurring and we
should then test the 1320.00-1319.50 zone.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1332.25-1333.00
1335.75-1336.50
1337.75-1338.50

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1328.50-1327.50
1325.00-1324.25
1320.00-1319.50
1317.75
1315.50-1314.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2331.75-2332.50
2339.50-2340.50
2348.50-2350.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2322.50-2322.00
2313.00-2312.50
2308.75-2308.00
2302.75
2197.00-2196.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday- April 05, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 5 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:56 pm eastern time, 4/5/2011

The ES opened down 3.50 points on Tuesday, and the 1325.00-
1324.25 key area was tested twice before the market turned
up. A trend up move held at each updated support area on the
way to a 1234.25 high on the ES and 2340 on the NQ. As noted
via Instant Message just after making its top, the move was
losing momentum on each attempt to move higher, and it set
up a short as the move was reversed when 1332.50 was broken.
That turned into resistance on a bounce as the market then
went into trend down mode. The ES dropped 7.75 points while
the weaker NQ dropped 19.75 points and ended the day just
above the lows.

Once again the 1325 area held and gave a good rally attempt.
However, ALSO once again, the rally was aborted as buyers
pull bids and longs take profits before it's too late and
they are forced out. The ES ended the day just a bit over
the key support. It doesn't look like the ideal set-up to be
a buyer, as the reward/ risk on the long side is a bit high
due to how complacent participants are currently.

That said, the market is still range bound and the upside
appears to be limited. If there is a lower open, a reversal
back up should occur if the initial support areas are held.
If that occurs it sets up another trade on the long side as
there should be shorts covering on early weakness. On the
other side of the coin, if there is a move up on the open
and the initial resistance is tested/ rejected, it should
set up a better shorting opportunity. The bounces are not
able to stick, so favor the short side as a breakdown could
be a bit nasty short term.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1330.50-1331.00
1333.75-1334.25 major
1337.75-1338.50

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1325.00-1324.25
1320.00-1319.50
1317.75
1315.50-1314.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2327.50-2329.00
2335.00-2335.50
2340.00-2342.00 major

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2320.50-2319.50
2313.00-2312.50
2308.75
2204.00-2202.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

 

Monday- April 04, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 4 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:09 pm eastern time, 4/4/2011

The ES popped up on the open and reached the 1332.50-1333.25
resistance in the first 15 minutes of stock trading, then
turned and dropped 5.25 points to 1327.50 updated support.
The 1330.50 level on the ES and 12400 on the Dow cash acted
like a lid on the bounce and 1327.00 was tested again. A
bounce failed just 1 tick under the 1329 updated resistance,
then dropped to the 1325.00-1324.25 support. That was well
bid, and a run up to the 1327.50 new resistance followed.
That move stalled, and a drop to test the 1325.50 level on
the ES coincided with a double bottom at 2722 on the NQ and
buyers stepped to the plate in the last hour and the market
rallied back nicely into the close.

On Tuesday we get the ISM Services number 30 minutes into
stock trading, and then the Fed Minutes are released at 2pm.
The market did not like it around the 1333 area on the ES
once again, however the 1315.00-1314.25 support zone acted
as very strong support. That area was a resistance area that
turned into a breakout zone, and needs to hold to keep the
upside intact and avoid a transition back to the downside.

The market ended the day in uptrends and the futures settled
well above fair value. So, if there is early weakness it
should be seen as a buying opportunity especially if the
initial support around the 1328.50-1328.00 area on the ES is
held.

If that area is held, then a push higher to test that
1332.50-1333.25 area is still likely. That area has been
sold the last 2 days, so getting through that and holding
could be a chore. However, a move towards the 1335.75-
1336.25 area on the ES and/or 2349.50-2350.50 on the NQ
could be reached before buyers back off if the Monday highs
are cleared.

If the ES does not hold the 1328.50-1328.00 area on a
pullback, then a move back to the bottom of this range at
the 1325.00-1324.25 area on the ES should be in the cards
once again. If that zone is not defended, then a drop to at
least test the 1320.50-1319.50 area is likely before the
market tries to get turned back up.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1332.50-1333.25 key
1335.75-1336.25
1339.75-1340.25

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1328.50-1328.00 key early
1325.00-1324.25 major
1320.00-1319.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2342.50-2343.50 key
2349.50-2350.50
2357.75-2358.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2333.50-2332.50 key early
2323.00-2322.00 major
2313.00-2312.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Sunday- April 03, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

4 / 3 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 4/3/2011

Last Friday the ES gapped up 9 points to 1330.50, then
dropped down to test the important 1325.50 area. That was
quickly reversed and the ES went trend up to 1333.75 shortly
before noon. Buyers backed off, but the dip held the 1330.50
area and the market tried to get going on the upside.
However, a move to 1332.25 was rejected and when the 1331
level broke, so did the rising wedge pattern and the ES hit
an air-pocket and dropped to 1324.25 with an hour to go in
stock trading. A bounce failed at the updated resistance at
1328.50-1329.00 and then churned into the close.

The ES didn't like it up around the 1332-1333 area on
Friday, as longs pulled bids and took profits before they
were forced out of the exit door. That occurred on the break
of 1331 late on Friday. Those who did get stuck buying up
there should be eager to get out if those Friday highs are
seen again. Below the market however, there should be
support on a test of the Friday lows or else things are
changing short term.

On Monday, the market should be under pressure unless the
initial resistance areas are exceeded/ held and then held on
a dip. That shouldn't be the case though, as the market will
fail there and set up a good shorting opportunity if it is
weak, or going to test the Friday lows at least. If the 1325
area is broken again and not quickly reversed back up, then
odds are pretty good that a move towards the 1317.75 area
(at least) is in the works. A move to that area would need
to be reversed, as it would be a fill of a gap on the daily
chart from the March 29th-March 30th, and also retrace 50%
of the move up from 1300.25. If the ES does not turn up
quickly from a test of that area then things are changing
short term.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1328.50-1329.00
1332.50-1333.25
1335.50-1336.25
1339.75-1340.25

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1325.00-1324.25
1320.00-1319.50
1317.75
1315.50-1314.75
1312.25-1311.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2342.50-2343.50
2349.50-2350.50
2357.75-2358.00
2364.50-2366.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2334.00-2333.25
2227.50-2226.50
2320.50
2313.00-2312.50
2204.00-2202.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Thursday- March 31, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 31 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:26 pm eastern time, 3/31/2011

The market had a choppy two-sided day on Thursday, but the
ES was not able to stay over 1325 on several attempts and
finally succumbed to sellers and the Dow and SP500 closed
just above the low for the day while the Nasdaq futures
backed off from its late high at 2341.50 into the close.

On Friday we get the employment data before the open. All of
the averages had inside days on Thursday, but the 1325 area
on the ES was rejected as buyers backed off and longs took
profits. The 1328 major are was rejected on Wednesday. The
market will need to get over that 1325 area and stick, not
reverse again, to get the upside melt-up back in gear.
Another failure up there could be terminal short term as the
market is exiting its bullish bias timeframe.

On Friday the key resistance is at the 1325.00-1325.75 area
on a move higher. The market needs to run up right through
that area and only see it again on a dip (that then holds
1325) to avoid trouble, at least early. On the downside, the
1317.75 level should be key on a break of this 2 day range.
If the market gets footing there, a decent rebound is
possible. However, if that 1317.75 area does not show a sign
of turning around, then just below is the breakout area
around the 1315.50-1314.75 zone. If that area is not
reversed, then there is something changing and the market
could be in a trend down mode unless the market rallies back
up through that area and then holds it on a dip. If that
occurs, then a good move higher could be starting.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1325.00-1325.75
1327.75-1328.50 *major
1331.50-1332.50
1336.25-1338.00

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1320.00-1319.50
1317.75
1315.50-1314.75 *key
1312.25-1311.75
1309.50-1308.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2340.50-2341.00
2343.75-2344.50 *major
2351.25-2352.25
2361.25-2362.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2335.75-2334.75
2330.50
2227.50-2226.50 *key
2220.00-2219.00
2313.00-2312.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday- March 30, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 30 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:46 pm eastern time, 3/30/2011

The market gapped up on Wednesday and it was a trend up move
with small pullbacks until the ES reached 1327.75. That was
just under the 1328.50-1329.25 last resistance, and the
market drifted lower to 1325.00 before bouncing. That bounce
failed at 1327.00 and the rejection of that area brought in
selling as the ES dropped to 1323.00 just before the close.

On Monday the market dropped hard at the end of the day,
setting up the "normal" rally into end of month. The market
has made a good move off of the Tuesday morning lows and the
short term indicators are getting overbought at a resistance
area. From here it looks like the upside is limited, and a
trip to test the gap on the daily chart for the ES looks
possible if the initial resistance is not cleared/ held
early on Thursday. The 1328 area looks like a short term
top, or at least should be hard to hold above if it is poked
over. The initial support areas would need to be quickly
reversed, not cut right through, to make an attempt to get
back up there.

On Thursday we get Initial Claims before the open and then
the Chicago PMI 15 minutes after stocks open. It's also the
last day of the month and quarter. If the ES does pull back
to test the 1317.75-1317.25 area and gets turned back up,
then a decent bounce should occur. On the top side, if there
is a test of the 1327.75-1328.50 area on the ES and/or the
2343.25-2344.00 zone on the NQ and that move
stalls/reverses, it sets up a shorting opportunity for a
test/ break of the initial support areas which should be
pivotal on Thursday.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1324.50-1325.00
1327.75-1328.50 *major
1331.50-1332.50
1336.25-1338.00

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1323.00-1322.50
1317.75-1317.25 *gap fill
1315.50-1314.75 *key
1312.25-1311.75 *strong
1309.50-1308.75

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2336.00-2336.75
2343.25-2344.00 *major
2351.25-2352.25
2361.25-2362.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2331.75-2330.75
2324.75-2324.00 *gap fill
2220.00-2219.00 *key
2313.00-2312.50 *strong
2309.00-2308.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Tuesday- March 29, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 29 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
..............................................

Dateline: 6:26 pm eastern time, 3/29/2011

NOTE: On Wednesday I will be away until around 11
am eastern time. The first update will be sent
around that time, or sooner hopefully.

The higher open on Tuesday was sold at the 1305.25-1306.00
initial resistance, and then the ES dropped 5 points to
1300.25 support before turning back up. The break/ hold over
1302.50 got the upside going, and the ES went into trend-up
mode until tacking on another 9.25 points and reaching
1311.75. After churning between 1311.75 on top and the
updated trend up support at 1309.50, that level was held,
and the ES moved up to 1313.50. Another dip of 1.75 points
held right at the mid-day 1311.75 high, keeping the trend up
move alive as the ES rallied to 1314.75. Another 1.75 point
pullback to 1313.00 updated support was reversed and the ES
popped up to 1317.75 just before settlement, closing the day
just over the 1315.25-1315.50 major area.

The move was trend up on Tuesday. There was just 1 pullback
that was more than 3 points on the ES after turning up from
the 1300 support area. The ES settled above the 1315 level
and posted an outside day on the upside. However, back to
back trend days are not the norm, so a 2 sided day is more
likely on Wednesday. A hold over the 1315 level will be
needed to keep the strong uptrend intact. A break of that
area would open the door for a test of the 1312.25-1311.75
area on the ES. That is as far as a pullback should go if it
is going to avoid trouble on Wednesday.

So look for early strength to be sold on Wednesday, and then
if the first pullback holds around the 1315 area the upside
can continue. A move up to the 1319.50-1320.50 should be as
far as this move goes before taking a breath and pulling
back. If a pullback to the 1315 area isn't defended, then
it's down to the 1312.25-1311.75 area and that should be key
on a pullback.

NOTE: On Wednesday I will be away until around 11
am. The first update will be sent around that
time, or sooner hopefully.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1319.50-1320.50
1324.25-1325.00
1328.50-1329.25

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1315.50-1314.75 *key
1312.25-1311.75 *strong
1309.50-1308.75
1305.25-1304.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2327.50-2328.50
2337.50-2338.25
2345.25-2346.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2220.00-2219.00 *key
2313.00-2312.50 *strong
2309.00-2308.50
2300.75-2299.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Monday- March 28, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 28 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 3/28/2011

The ES opened a bit higher and rallied to the 1315.00-
1315.50 major zone before pulling back to 1313.50. A bounce
back to test the 1315.25 level was sold, and when the
1313.50 level broke the ES pulled back to just under 1310
and then bounced back. That bounce was to the 1312.50 level,
right at the updated resistance, and it pulled back again.
With the Sell signals given last Friday, it was noted that
the market should go into the minus column, and when the
1310 level broke/ held it triggered a sharp drop. After
breaking through the 1308.50-1307.50 "target" that 1307.50
turned into resistance on a bounce and then the downside
continued to the 1302 level given just before the close.

The market acted very timid on Monday before the break down,
as buyers backed off for fear of buying at a top. When the
sentiment shifted, the exit door was certainly crowded. This
does not look like it's just a pause in a strong uptrend.
The ES dropped 13.25 points off of its high at the 1315.25
major resistance. If that area is seen again, odds are good
that trapped longs will be grateful to get out.

On Tuesday look for early weakness to be bought, especially
if the 1296.50-1295.75 area on the ES is tested and reversed
back up. If that happens in the first 30 minutes of stock
trading, then a bounce could be a decent one but set up a
shorting opportunity when the upside stalls/ reverses. A
bounce shouldn't be more than 7.50 ES points and fail
at/under the 1309.25-1309.75 area on the ES and the 2308.75-
2309.50 area on the NQ if the Friday high at 1315.25 was a
short term top.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1305.25-1306.00
1309.25-1309.75
1312.25-1312.50
1315.25-1315.50

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1302.00
1300.50-1300.00
1296.50-1295.75
1292.50-1292.00 *major

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2300.50-2301.50
2308.75-2309.50
2316.75-2318.00
2325.50-2326.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2294.75
2291.50-2290.50
2285.50-2284.50
2276.50-2275.50 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Sunday- March 27, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 27 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
..............................................


Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 3/27/2011

The market got of to a shaky start last week as the ES
failed at the 1296 area and sold off to 1279.25 by Wednesday
morning. The market turned up and took out the 1296 area on
Thursday's gap up open at 1300 on the ES. That 1300 level
was sold on Thursday's open, and then a drop to the 1292.50
level on the ES and 12100 level on the Dow cash was held in
the morning. The market got its footing and the ES got back
over 1300 on Thursday afternoon. Then, on Friday the ES
rallied to the 1314.50-1315.50 resistance zone and failed,
then dropped to the 1308 support area before the close.

The market sentiment has gotten frothy as it approaches the
February highs. The VIX dropped 40% in the last 7 days, and
the Friday action by the VIX gave 3 of 5 possible sell
signals. A reversal by the VIX on Monday would be a heads-up
that sentiment is shifting, and the market would be
vulnerable for decent pullback at the least. Other short
term gauges are slightly overbought, while the intermediate
term indicators have a lot of catching up to do.

On Monday the market will be vulnerable unless there is a
move over the initial resistance zones, and it holds on a
pullback. If that happens in the early going, and the 1313
area is held on a pullback, it could give the market one
more run up towards the 1319.50-1320.50 area on the ES
before there is a decent pullback. On the other side of the
coin, if that 1313 area is not exceeded, and the initial
support is broken through, then a move towards the 1300 area
looks to be in the cards short term. A move back to that
area should be defended unless things are changing on the
bigger picture, so that could be seen as a very good place
for buyers to step to the plate. If not, then the 1296 area
will be key as it was the breakout/ transition zone on the
upside.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1312.50-1313.00 *key
1315.00-1315.50
1319.50-1320.50 *major
1324.25-1325.00


June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1308.50-1308.00
1305.25
1300.50-1300.00 *strong
1296.00-1295.50
1292.50-1292.00 *major


June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2325.00-2325.50 *key
2329.75-2330.50
2337.50-2338.25 *major
2345.25-2346.25


June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2313.75-2312.00
2309.25
2301.00-2300.25 *strong
2292.50-2291.75
2285.50-2284.50 *major


Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

Thursday- March 24, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 24 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:45 pm eastern time, 3/24/2011

The 7.75 point gap up open on the ES was sold at 1300, and a
sell-off to 1292.50 updated support on the ES and 12100 on
Dow cash followed. That support held, and a trend up move to
the updated 1302-1303 area followed then stalled out. A test
of updated support at 1300.50 held and a pop up to 1304.75
occurred. Another drop held right at 1300 on the ES, and
after a test of the high failed, the pullback that followed
held the 1303 transition level and went to 1306.75 before
pulling back in the last half hour of trading.

On Friday we get GDP before the open, and the Michigan
Sentiment survey release 25 minutes after stocks open. The
Thursday action was a trend up day with a few hiccups but
there was a clear breakout above the 1296 resistance on the
ES on Thursday. Normally a trend day will be followed up by
a day of 2 sided action. Given that most internal gauges are
neutral, that makes it more likely. The thing that is
bothersome about being a buyer up here is the plunge by the
VIX. It closed almost 20% under its 10 day average close. If
it reverses, then I'll get several sell signals. It hasn't
reversed yet.

It looks like the 1303 area on the ES will be key on a
pullback on Friday. As long as that area is held, then no
damage is done and the market can move higher. Still, if
there is a good run-up (and there may be early if after
hours earnings keeps the futures up) and it runs out of
steam and stalls, expect a decent and tradable pullback.
Both sides should be in play, and a move up to round the
1314-1315 area would be a pretty big hurdle to clear. If
they melt-up towards the 1320 area, that would be the max
before a good sized pullback. Next week is the end of the
quarter, and we should get a decent pullback in front of the
"last 2 days of the month, first day of new month" upside
tendency.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1307.50-1308.25
1310.50
1314.50-1315.50
1320.50-1321.50

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1303.25-1302.75
1300.50-1299.50
1296.00
1292.50-1292.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2316.50-2318.00
2322.00
2328.50-2329.50
2339.00-2340.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2306.00-2305.00
2298.50-2297.50
2285.00
2273.00-2272.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday- March 23, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 23 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:45 pm eastern time, 3/23/2011

Folks, my apologies for not being able to update this
afternoon. A lightning strike about 70 feet from my office
window blew out Frontier's FIOS box, Invisible Fence's
circuit board, 2 garage door openers, and killed a goose.
Three pair of geese came by to join the mourning. Power and
PC's not affected, but was without a connection until 4pm.
Not a normal day. :-) Hopefully Thursday is less chaotic.
Thanks Ziad for your help this evening. On to the market...

After a lower open the ES made a double bottom at the
1279.25-1279.50 area and turned up. The ES broke/ held
1282.50 and reached 1289.00 shortly before 1pm. The pullback
held the 1286 dynamic support and the ES tested the 1295.75-
1296.25 zone with 40 minutes left, then buyers backed off
and the ES dropped from 1296.00 to 1291.25 by the close.

The SP500 Cash rejected the 1300 level for the third time
this week. That is the key resistance to clear and hold
above to avoid this being another run up before another good
sized drop in this trading range. In order to have a good
chance to do so, the 1289 area needs to hold on a pullback,
or quickly reverse if broken. If a pullback holds that area,
and the 1296 area on the ES (and 1300 on SPX) is cleared and
not rejected, then a push towards 1301.50-1303.00 could
occur, but would likely be reversed if it is reached.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1316.00-1318.00
1308.00-1309.00
1301.00-1303.00
1296.00-1297.00


June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1291.00-1292.00
1287.25-1288.50
1285.00
1282.50-1282.00
1279.00-1278.50


June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2325.00-2328.00
2305.00-2308.00
2290.00-2293.00
2775.00-2276.00


June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2263.00-2264.00
2254.25-2255.25
2249.55
2242.00-2243.00
2230.50-2231.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday- March 22, 2011

.................................................
            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              3 / 22 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)
 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:19 pm eastern time, 3/22/2011

We came into Tuesday expecting lower prices, and for bounces
to fail, and got just that. The ES popped up to 1294.75 in
the first 10 minutes (1295.50 was initial resistance, just
missed), then dropped to double bottom around initial
support at 1290.50 on ES and 2253.50 on NQ. A bounce stopped
1 tick under updated resistance at 1294.25 and reversed
again. A 6.00 point drop to the 1288.25 level was reached,
and 12000 on the Dow cash held too, and the ES bounced to
1293.00 and reversed again. It set up another shorting
opportunity and the market obliged as the ES fell 4.50
points to 1288.50 then bounced again. That was just 3.25
points, then a drop to 1287.50 followed. A bounce started at
2pm but that failed at 1290.75 and then was sold into the
close.

The market worked off most of the overbought readings from
Monday, except for the Vix dropping a bit more on Tuesday.
At the moment the market looks range bound, with limited
upside unless the ES can get over the initial resistance
areas and hold on Wednesday. Even then, something unexpected
needs to happen to spur another run up towards the 1295.75-
1296.25 area on the ES. Below, the ES still has a gap on the
daily chart at the 1285.00 level. A test of that area, if
held and/or quickly reversed, should give a bounce if the
market is not getting into trouble again.

On Wednesday the upside will be suspect unless the initial
resistance is cleared. If that is not cleared, then odds are
pretty good that we see that 1285-1284 area tested before
any attempt to get turned back around. If that occurs, then
the rebound back up would need to push back up over the
1290.50 area, and stick, to undo the damage that would be
done.


June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esm1 / big contract =spm1

1290.75
1293.25-1293.75  key
1295.75-1296.25
1297.75-1298.50

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1288.00-1287.50
1285.00-1284.50  key
1282.00-1281.50
1276.75-1276.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2259.25
2263.50-2264.00 key
2267.50-2268.25
2271.00-2272.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2254.50-2253.75
2250.50-2250.00 key
2244.50-2243.50
2234.50-2233.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

Monday- March 21, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 21 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:39 pm eastern time, 3/21/2011

The ES gapped up more than 15 points and held the 1288 area
on a quick dip and continued moving higher to 1296.25 in the
first 40 minutes of trading. Then, for the rest of the day
the ES traded mostly between 1295.50 and 1291.75 until the
last 30 minutes. A drop from 1295.25 top of the range
stopped at 1290.50 with 30 minutes left, then a move back to
1294.75 was sold into settlement.

Since making a low last Wednesday the SP500 is up 41.50
points on a closing basis. The NYSE has had more than 2180
advancing issues for 3 days in a row. The 3 day thrust
oscillator reached +.80, which is a short term extreme.
Sentiment shifted fast, as the Vix dropped almost 16% on
Monday. The Nasdaq weakened in the afternoon, not confirming
the test of the highs by the blue chip averages. Lastly, the
1295.50-1296.25 area on the ES was rejected 4 times on
Monday, as buyers pull bids when the market stalls out. The
good news is that the 12000 level on the Dow cash was not
broken and bounced back into the close.

Expect the market to have trouble holding gains on Tuesday.
The 1296 level on the ES needs cleared to possibly squeeze
shorts and move towards the 1303-1304 area, but that would
be maximum upside for this move. On the downside, a drop to
the 1284.25-1282.50 zone on the ES should be key, and give a
good snap back rally in gear if a drop stalls/ reverses from
that area.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1295.50-1296.25
1297.75-1298.50
1303.50-1304.25

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1290.50
1287.75-1287.00
1284.25-1282.50 key zone

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2261.50-2262.00
2267.50-2268.25
2276.50-2278.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2253.50
2244.50-2243.50
2234.50-2233.50 key

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

Sunday- March 20, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 20 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 3/20/2011

The market started out will a selloff last week and it
lasted into Wednesday afternoon. The internal gauges and Vix
buy signals gave the market a reason to rally, and after
Thursday's gap up open the ES topped at 1274.50 and then
backed off. The pullback to 1261.50 area on the ES and 11700
on the Dow cash were held, and buyers took over again. On
Friday the ES gapped up 15.75 points and at the 1284.50
resistance, and that set up a selling opportunity as the ES
reached the 1277-1276 target on the way to 1275.00. We
called it a day, but did update late that 1272.50 was
support and the 1275.50-1276.50 zone was bounce resistance
that needed cleared/ held. That bounce topped at 1276.75 and
a drop to 1270.75 occurred around 3 pm. A bounce brought the
market back off its lows and the market held together to end
the week.

On Friday the market had trouble holding on to gains as the
high was made on the open and low made with an hour left to
trade. The volatility was still good, despite the range
contraction. The short term internal gauges that were so
oversold on Wednesday have returned back to neutral, so that
prop has been lifted. The intermediate term internal gauges
topped before price and still are looking bad. The market
still looks skittish, and given the damage done recently,
the upside should have a hard time holding gains.

On the flip side of the coin, on the deeper drops the market
has been able to find support, turn up and give a decent
bounce. This is what is expected this week. If the market
retreats back towards the 1262.50-1261.50 area on the ES and
11700 area on the Dow cash, and can hold and reverse from
around there, then it could set up a good trade on the long
side.

If the market rallies early instead, the ES needs to break
and hold over the 1276.75-1277.50 initial resistance to get
a move going to test the 11900 area on the Dow cash and
possibly the 1284.50-1285.00 area on the ES. If the market
can push further, then a move towards the 1293.25-1294.00
area on the ES is possible before another good sized selloff
sets up.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1276.75-1277.50
1280.25-1280.75
1284.50-1285.00
1288.50-1288.50
1293.25-1294.00


June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1271.50-1270.75
1267.25-1266.50
1262.50-1261.50
1256.00-1255.25


June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2227.00-2227.50
2233.50-2234.25
2242.50-2243.50
2248.00-2249.00
2256.50-2258.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2215.50-2214.50
2208.75-2207.75
2196.75-2195.75
2188.00-2186.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

TECHNICAL LOOK

 

Hi Folks,
I recorded a look through my spreadsheet of internal
gauges to show why the market had reason to rally
on Thursday, and a quick comment on what they say
bigger picture. Take a look by going here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uqKQ19i0_A

Good trading,
Mike

 

 

Thursday- March 17, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 17 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:46 pm eastern time, 3/17/2011

Tonight's update is a short one due to prior commitment. The
market was up big to start the day but had good moves both
ways. For now, the early afternoon lows around 1261.50 on
the ES and 11700 on the Dow cash look like key support to
hold to avoid a bad end to the week. The Nasdaq futures NQ
looks vulnerable, and should lead the way on Friday. It's an
option expiration day, and with the recent damage done, it
should be hard to hold gains.

There will be no updates sent on Friday. I will try to
Instant message early, but will be taking off early, so the
next nightly update will be sent on Sunday night.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1272.00-1272.50
1276.00-1277.00
1283.75-1284.50

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1265.50-1265.00
1262.00-1261.50 [and 11700 area on Dow CASH]
1258.25-1257.50
1251.00-1250.50
1244.00-1243.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2230.75-2232.25
2243.25-2245.25
2252.50-2254.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2220.25-2218.75
2214.00-2212.50
2208.25-2207.50
2200.75-2200.00
2187.50-2186.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Wednesday- March 16, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 16 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 3/16/2011


The ES dropped under the 1268 support in the first 15
minutes but turned right back up just missed 1275 updated
resistance before backing off. The pullback held 1270.50
updated support and pushed to a high at 1276.00. A wedge
formed in the process, and the break was sharp as the ES
dropped to 1255.50 to match the Monday low area. A 7.50
point bounce failed at 1269.00 and a quick drop to test the
low followed. A bounce from 1256.25 stopped at updated
resistance at 1263.75, and that set up a short for a drop
to/ through the 1248-1247 target to 1243.25 low, then
reversed sharply. That bounce could not get over 1263 and
11700 on the Dow cash and hold, leading to another 11.75
point drop into the close.

The market doesn't look like it's out of trouble yet. There
were 2 Vix buy signals and the short term internal gauges are
very oversold. Another drop to the 1243.50-1242.50 zone on
the ES would need to be defended and aggressively bought to
begin to try to make a bottom. More important would be a
show of strength by getting over the 11700 area on the Dow
cash and the 1263-1264 area on the ES. The market remains
vulnerable unless those are cleared, then can hold on a
pullback.

That said, expect another volatile session on Thursday.
There are plenty of swings to trade, if things set up
especially at a good resistance or support area. We had
these swings of 4+ points on the ES on Wednesday:

1267.25
1276.00 +8.75
1255.50 -20.50
1269.00 +13.50
1256.25 -12.75
1263.75 +7.50
1243.25 -20.50
1262.75 +19.50
1251.00 -11.75

That equals 104.75 points of travel in the day's range.
Catch a good part of just one of those is a good day,
especially compared to the dull grind to the 1343 February
top.

If there is early strength on Thursday, it should be a short
under initial resistance. On a drop, the 1243-1242 area is
key on Thursday and must hold near there or we get another
decent sized drop and see the 1238.75-1238.00 area (or
lower) before that good reversal rally occurs.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1258.25
1262.75-1263.75
1267.75-1268.25
1274.50-1276.00

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1251.00-1250.50
1243.50-1242.50
1238.75-1238.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2214.50
2222.75-2223.75
2228.75-2229.75
2247.75-2249.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2200.75-2200.00
2187.50-2186.50
2181.00-2179.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday- March 15, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 15 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:20 pm eastern time, 3/15/2011

The ES opened down 34.50 points on Tuesday, and after a 10
point bounce to 1265.25 failed, a drop to test the low was
bought and a trend up move was underway. The break/ hold
over 1265 kept the move going into the Fed release. After
the release there was a quick drop, then a reversal back up
started a choppy uptrend that lasted until just missing the
1284 resistance. With 20 minutes left in stock trading the
futures broke the 1280.50 trend support as the ES dropped
10.75 points into the close.

The market is not out of the woods yet, especially if the
initial support is not defended on Wednesday. The ES did
make a low at a logical support area, but it was over after
the open and the market moved higher most of the day.
Another shake-out should be in the cards before a good rally
could occur. That 1284 area was soundly rejected, so if it
is cleared there could be one more run up towards the
1287.50-1288.50 zone on the ES. That should be the maximum
upside (assuming there is enough strength to get over 1284
on the ES and 11900 on the Dow cash and not quickly reverse)
if there is more downside coming this week.

So, on Wednesday look for early strength that
stalls/reverses near the initial resistance for a good trade
on the short side. If the initial support is defended on a
pullback, the market should continue to stay in a 2-sided
trading range by bouncing back towards the 1277 area but
that should be it unless the ES is on its way to test
Tuesday's highs. If that 1269.00-1268.25 area is not
defended, then a drop towards the 1265.00-1264.50 area
should be in the cards easily, and possibly back to the 1258
area where the market should hold if it's not coming apart
again.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1283.75-1284.50
1287.50-1288.50
1293.00-1293.50

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1269.00-1268.25
1265.00-1264.50
1258.50-1257.50
1255.50-1255.00
1248.00-1247.25

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2268.50-2269.50
2273.00-2374.00
2278.75-2280.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2243.00-2241.50
2234.50-2233.50
2224.50-2223.50
2214.50-2233.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Monday- March 14, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 14 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 3/14/2011

The ES opened down 11 points and reversed up from just over
the 1289.00-1288.50 support zone, and after a pop and retest
of 1289.50 again, a rally to the updated resistance zone at
1294.50-1295.25 followed. Buyers backed off and a trend down
to a new low for the move at 1281.50, and then 1285 turned
into resistance on a bounce. The first rejection of that
area turned the ES down and it reached 1281.00 while the Dow
cash dipped just under 11900 and the move was reversed. That
1285 level was broken, and then held on a dip, and the
market was able to rally back into the close.

We had good volatility to start the week, and it should
continue the way things look. Once again the market was on
the ropes, about ready to get knocked down, but that 11900
area on the Dow cash (and also 2271.00-2269.25 zone on NQ)
were well bid, and gave the market a decent reflex rally
back. This action is fairly similar to the action seen
leading into the March 3rd high. At this time the indicators
are neutral to slightly oversold. The only "good" thing was
a close under the 50 day moving average, as that sparked a
rally last Friday. There was 1 Vix buy signal, but not
that's not enough to have a strong bias. One thing seems to
good odds, and that would be another test of the 11900 area
on the Dow cash finding buyers. If they get there again,
shorts should be happy to lock in profits and bulls should
want to see that area again to buy. If that is not defended,
then it could end with a mini melt down towards the 1272.50
area which would be very key to hold.

On Tuesday we get the FOMC Rate Decision at 2:15pm. The end
of day pattern was somewhat bearish, and the market did end
with uptrends so if there is early strength that should set
up a scalp at least on the short side. That's especially the
case if there is a run up towards the 1298.50-1299.25 zone
that stalls out. If there is weakness early instead, the
initial support areas are the first key areas to hold. The
NQ double bottomed on midday, and acted like there were
buyers waiting around the initial support areas late on
Monday. If the market tests those initial support areas, it
needs to reverse fast, otherwise the stair step higher will
start to crack and lead to more room to go on the downside.
After the Fed release, there usually is an up-down-up (or
vise versa) move in the first 15-20 minutes after the
release, and then a trend develops. If there happens to be a
trend move into the release, those have good odds of
reversing.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1293.00-1293.50
1298.50-1299.25
1303.25-1303.75
1306.50-1307.00
1311.50-1312.50

June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1288.00-1287.50
1285.00-1284.50
1281.00-1280.00
1277.75-1277.00
1272.50-1271.50

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2293.25-2394.25
2298.75-2229.75
2306.25-2307.00
2312.25-2313.00
2319.50-2321.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2284.00-2282.75
2278.75-2378.00
2271.00-2269.50
2264.00-2263.00
2258.50-2258.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

Sunday- March 13, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 13 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 3/13/2011

The lower open reversed up from just over the 1284.50-
1284.00 zone and rallied to 1293.00. A 6 point pullback to
1287 reversed and the ES formed a triangle pattern. The
break/ hold of the 1291.00 updated support started a run up
to the 1298 resistance. A dip reversed up from just under
new support at 1294 and went trend to 1303.25 high before
pulling back in the last hour.

At this juncture, the rally from the Friday morning lows
looks like a bounce in a new downtrend. This upcoming week
will be interesting as we have a Fed day on Tuesday and a
batch of economic data on Thursday. The market was really
volatile last week, and that should continue the way things
look. The move up on Friday showed a lot more bullish
emotion than the bearish emotion on Wednesday/ Thursday. The
Vix dropped 8% and the closing Trin was a minuscule .41 on
Friday.

So, as long as the initial support areas hold on a dip early
on Monday, it should set up a trade on the long side for one
more rally towards the 1306.50 area on the ES. If that
1306.50 area is rejected on further strength, then the down
trend can resume. If the 1306.50 area is not rejected, then
the 1311.50-1312.50 area could be seen. If a pullback does
not hold the initial support areas, then a test of the
1293.30-1292.50 area on the ES and 12000 on the Dow cash
will be key, pivotal areas to defend to avoid a bad day.
That will be seen as a second chance to buy if it's just a
pullback. Otherwise, the 1285 area would be in the cards.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1303.25-1303.75
1306.50-1307.00
1311.50-1312.50


June2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm1 / big contract =spm1

1298.50-1297.50
1293.30-1292.50
1289.00-1288.50
1285.50-1284.50


June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2306.25-2307.00
2312.25-2313.00
2319.50-2321.00


June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm1 / big contract = ndm1

2294.50-2293.50
2287.25-2386.50
2279.50-2278.50
2269.25-2268.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Thursday- March 10, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 10 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:06 pm eastern time, 3/10/2011

The 1308 area on the March ES was a make/ break area for the
market on Thursday, and the gap down below that on the open
just brought in more selling. All of the listed support was
cut through, and after an hour of trading the market bounced
back to test the open/ high areas. That move ran out of
steam, and the ES dropped 11.50 points to a slightly lower
low. A bounce back failed at dynamic resistance, and a drop
to test the lows followed. A bounce started with 30 minutes
left, but it was sold too and the market dropped to close
near the lows for the day.

The market was wound up tight, and the break of the 1308
level on the March ES was broken (and the bottom of the
triangle pattern) and the energy was released on the
downside. It's the first time the SP500 closed below its 50
day moving average since September 1th, 2010.

We get Retail Sales before the open on Friday. Aside from a
reaction from that, the volatility should continue.
Amazingly, only a couple of the short term indicators are
oversold here. Another down day might change that, but we'll
see.

On Friday, if there early weakness then be on alert for a
reversal back up in the first 40 minutes at the latest. A
bounce in the first 10-15 minutes should fail at the first
resistance levels if the market has lower to go. The major
support is around the 1275 area on the SP500 cash, and would
be around 1272.50 on the ES. If the market gets down there,
it would be back to back big down days, and would need an
almost instant turn around to avoid cascading towards the
1260 area. On top, if something sparks the market to rally,
then the 1300.50-1301.00 zone on the ES is a key hurdle. If
the market goes straight up (low odds) then the 1306.00-
1306.50 area on the ES would fill the gap, and also offer
strong resistance.

June 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =spm1

1294.25 [first 15 minutes]
1296.50-1297.00
1300.50-1301.00
1302.25-1303.00
1306.00-1306.50


June 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =spm1

1288.00-1287.50
1284.50-1284.00
1279.50-1278.50
1274.00-1272.50 -major

June 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndm1

2287.75 [first 15 minutes]
2291.50-2292.50
2296.75-2297.50
2300.75-2302.25
2306.25-2308.00

June 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndm1

2276.00-2275.25
2271.50-2270.50
2262.75-2261.50
2256.25-2254.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

Wednesday- March 09, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 9 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 3/9/2011

The ES broke initial support and dropped to the 1312.50-
1312.00 support, bounced back to 1317.50 old support, and
then dropped again to test the low. The double bottom at
support made a good low, and the ES bounced to 1322.25. The
move stalled, then reversed back down to break 1312.50-
1312.00 zone and then quickly reversed back up again. A
rally back to 1321.50 was sold, and was rejected 2 more
times before selling off to 1315.00 by the close.

We get the Initial Claims data before the open on Thursday.
The market is still winding tight in a trading range. On
Wednesday the ES had a 12.00 point range from high to low,
but the market didn't lack volatility. These were the moves
of 4+ points on the ES on Wednesday:

1313.00
1317.50 +4.50
1313.25 -4.25
1322.25 +9.00
1311.50 -10.75
1323.50 +12.00
1317.25 -6.25
1321.50 +4.25
1316.50 -5.00
1321.50 +5.00
1315.00 -6.50

That equals 67.50 points of travel within the 12 point day
session's range, and shows a tightly wound market. With the
1321.00-1321.50 zone being rejected a number of times, a
move lower should occur early on Thursday. If the 1312.00-
1311.50 area is not reversed back up early on Thursday, then
momentum could get steam and the market should unwind to the
downside. It will take a break/ hold over 1321-1322 to get
anything going on the upside. Stay with selling bounces
unless that area is cleared and held on a pullback.

NOTE: I didn't realize until after doing the S/R work that
Thursday is rollover to September futures. I'll move to
those contracts on Thursday. My apologies.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1321.00-1321.50
1324.00-1324.50
1327.75-1328.25

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1315.00
1312.00-1311.50
1308.50-1308.00
1302.00-1300.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2327.50-2328.50
2332.50-2333.25
2344.00-2345.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2311.25
2308.25-2307.50
2302.25-2301.25
2393.50-2392.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday- March 08, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

3 / 8 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
..............................................

Dateline: 5:46 pm eastern time, 3/8/2011

We came into Tuesday looking for a test of 1313.75 to be
sold, and a pop up to 1313.00 set up shorting opportunity as
the ES fell 7.00 points to 1306.00 in the first 30 minutes
of trading. The market reversed back up and the ES held
dynamic support on its way to 1319.00 and then churned.
After a dip, that was broken and it continued to hold new
support on the way to 1325.75. We looked for a short and the
drop went to 1319.50 updated support and reversed back up.
The bounce made a 1-2-3 top at the 1324-1325 sell zone, then
dropped 6 points to 1318.75 before the close.

Once again we had a good rally, but buyers back off when the
upside gets stretched and risk of being stuck long goes way
up. The averages all had inside days on Tuesday, and the
late drop is a "tell" for lower prices it appears.

On Wednesday, if the initial resistance is tested it should
set up a very good odds shorting opportunity. That 1324.00-
1324.50 area should be sold if tested early, ala Tuesday's
early action, for a quick drop at least. If that plays out
and the 1318.75-1317.75 zone is reached, another turn back
up should occur IF the market is going to stay range bound.
If the market dips down there and reverses, it should set up
a rally attempt if the market is still in decent shape, to
test the 1324 area possibly. However, if that area is not
defended, then the 1312.50-1312.00 zone should be in the
cards again before a bounce occurs. If buyers don't step in
there, it is back towards the 1308 area where it should be a
make/ break area for the market.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1324.00-1324.50
1327.75-1328.25
1331.75-1332.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1318.75-1317.75
1312.50-1312.00
1308.50-1308.00
1304.50-1304.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2344.00-2345.00
2352.50-2354.00
2359.75-2361.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2331.00-2330.00
2324.00-2322.50
2313.50-2312.75
2307.00-2306.25

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday- March 07, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
3 / 7 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 3/7/2011

The ES gapped up on the open but stalled out at 1327.25
before dropping to fill the gap. A bounce then reached
1323.75 and reversed, and a trend down move to 1302.75
followed. That was just over the 1302 last support, and
having dropped 24.50 points on the ES and 65.00 points on
the NQ, the market had a relief rally to fail in the last 30
minutes of trading.

Once again we had the market get hit hard with selling, and
then come back with a late day decent sized rally. One of
these day the market is not going to find buyers stepping in
front of the selling and cause a big down day. The only
technical plus is the back to back days with a closing Trin
above 1.20. Since topping a couple of weeks ago, this
occurred twice and both times it led to big up days.

The way the market is acting, the upside still should have a
hard time holding. If the initial resistance is not sold on
a test, then the market is stronger than anticipated on
Tuesday. That area will be sold if the market is still weak.
On the other side of the coin, a drop to the initial support
areas must be held/ reversed or the market is back in
trouble again on Tuesday and the 1290's can be seen on this
leg down. The market is still range bound, so if the ES
doesn't get turned up from the 1304.50-1304.00 zone, the
1298.25-1297.50 area is possible on this leg down.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1313.75-1314.50 *key early
1319.50-1320.75
1324.00-1324.50 *strong
1327.25-1328.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1308.50-1308.00
1304.50-1304.00
1298.25-1297.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2334.00-2335.00 *key early
2344.50-2346.00
2355.00-2356.00 *strong
2365.25-2366.25

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2324.00-2322.50
2312.00-2311.25
2306.25-2305.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Sunday- March 06, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
3 / 6 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 3/6/2011

The 1329 level on the ES was the key level to break/ hold on
a bounce to start a decent drop. We got exactly what we were
looking for as the lower open was bought, but the bounce
stalled right at 1329.00 and then started its move down. A
bounce from Thursday's 1319.25 low level reached the updated
key resistance at 1324.00-1324.50, and a double top there
gave another short just before a drop of 12.50 points to the
1311.50 level. A run up to 1316.25 failed, then it was right
back down to 1311.25 again. The market started a rally
around 2 pm, but it was early for such a move to stick and
after just poking over the 1317 target for that move, it was
right back to 1311.50 again. That kept the market in a
"comfort zone" and with 30 minutes left buying and shorts
covering gave a rally back to 1322.00 before the close.

The market had very good moves in both directions last week.
It looks like this should continue barring some extraneous
event happening. A trading range has developed, and as long
as that 1312.00-1311.25 zone on the ES and 2347.00-2346.50
zone on the NQ (and 12080 on the Dow cash) are held on a
pullback, the market will avoid any trouble. Holding on to
any gains though should not be a simple task, as there are
still buyers trapped around 1324 and 1329 on the ES. Those
are the hurdles to clear, and not reject, to get a good
rally going.

On Monday, if early weakness can hold the initial support on
a dip, the upside should continue and a run up to test or
break the initial resistance is likely. If the market opens
higher, around the zone on the ES and/or the 2366.50-2367.00
zone on the NQ and stalls/ reverses, then a decent sized
pullback can occur. If that is the case, and the market
drops through the Friday afternoon lows, then another push
towards the 1307.50-1306.50 zone is likely before a turn
around occurs again.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1321.75-1322.50
1324.25-1324.50
1328.50-1329.00
1332.50-1233.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1317.75-1317.00
1312.00-1311.25
1307.50-1306.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2362.50-2363.50
2366.50-2367.00
2372.00-2374.00
2378.25-2379.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2355.50-2355.00
2347.00-2346.50
2338.50-2337.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday- March 03, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
3 / 3 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 3/3/2011

The ES opened up 13.50 points and ran to 1325.50 before
pulling back to 1320.75. They turned right back up and the
1324 area on ES was cleared/ held 1324 on a dip and pushed
higher to 1329.00. Another small dip held updated support at
1326.50 and then the 1332.00 level was tested. A dip to
1329.00 new support held and the ES tested the 1332 again
before a small pullback into the close.

We get the employment data before the open on Friday. That
1332 area was the Tuesday morning gap up high, and was
turned away twice late on Thursday. That area needs cleared,
and held on a dip, to avoid a potential double top. Thursday
was a trend up day, and back to back trend days in the same
direction are rare.

That said, we should see two-sided action on Friday. As long
as the 1329 level holds the market will stay in uptrends and
try pushing higher. No harm is done as long as that holds or
is quickly reversed. If it is broken, then a drop towards
1324 area would hold if the market is avoiding trouble. On
the upside, if the 1331.50-1332.50 area is not rejected
again, then a move towards the 1334.75-1335.50 that stalls/
reverses could bring in selling. If the market gets there,
and doesn't reverse, it will be a surprise but then the
1338-1339 area would be likely on this leg up.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1331.50-1332.50
1334.75-1335.50
1338.50-1339.00
1343.00-1344.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1329.00
1324.50-1324.00
1320.75-1320.00
1314.00-1313.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2375.50-2376.00
2380.50-2382.00
2390.25-2391.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2370.25
2366.50-2365.50
2359.75-2358.00
2342.00-2341.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Wednesday- March 02, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
3 / 2 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:46 pm eastern time, 3/2/2011

NOTE: The Instant Messages sent intraday are a part of your paid subscription. If you are one of those not taking advantage of this, see the log from today, as lots of
guidance is given each day. http://www.tradestalker.com/log.htm

The ES opened higher and ran up to the 1309.50-1310.00 zone,
which was a short, and pulled back to 1306.25. Another
bounce to 1309.50 was rejected, but the next dip held
updated support at 1306 and then took off to 1313.75.
Shortly after that, by Instant message I stated that a high
was in and the reversal took the ES down to 1301.50 by noon.
The ES turned up from 1301.50 and bounced back to the
1309.50-1310.00 zone again, setting up another pullback to
1304.00 when the Beige Book was released. Another test of
1309.50 failed, but another Instant Message stated:

"(Mar 02-14:32) Mike: 06 has to hold, if it can
hold, 12 area possible on breakout"

The 1306.00 level held and we got a rally to 1311.75, a dip,
then a pop to 1312.25 was rejected. Another Instant Message
stated:

"(Mar 02-15:14) Mike: small shorts up here" [1311
on ES then]

And a bit later this:

"(Mar 02-15:25) Mike: 09.50 key end of day, then
06 area"

The ES dropped to 1305.00 before bouncing back a bit into
settlement.

We get Retail sales in the morning. The market still acts
toppy and nervous. The ES and NQ both had inside days after
the Tuesday drubbing. At this point, with bounces not able
to stick, the short side should offer the better
opportunities. The ES and NQ would both need to clear the
initial resistance areas, and stick, to get out of trouble
and turn things around. Unless that happens, selling a
decent pop up on Thursday morning should be a good odds
trade.

On the bottom side, a drop that can hold/ reverse from the
1297.50-1296.50 zone on the ES should set up a snap back
rally. If that area is not defended, then the market will be
under pressure and the 1292.50-1291.50 zone could then be in
the cards. That is major short term support that must hold
to avoid a late week nose dive.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1312.50-1313.50
1316.50-1317.00
1321.50-1323.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1304.40-1304.00
1300.50
1297.50-1296.50
1292.50-1291.50 *major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2339.00-2341.00
2346.50-2348.00
2354.75-2356.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2319.50-2318.25
2312.50
2308.50-2307.50
2296.75-2295.50 *major

Good Trading, Mike Reed
 

 

Tuesday- March 01, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
3 / 1 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:29 pm eastern time, 3/01/2011

The gap up open was reversed right away from 1332.50 on the
ES, setting up a shorting opportunity and the ES went trend
down to the 1317.50 level (1317.00 was support). A bounce
failed/ reversed at 1325.00 and a drop to the key The
1312.50-1310.00 area followed. A bounce from 1312.50 support
to 1316.75 failed (1317 was updated resistance) and set up
another entry before the market headed back down and reached
1305.50 by 2:40pm. The 1309 new resistance was rejected
twice, and the group was told that lows could be made at
1302-1302 or at the close. The break/ hold of 1307 sealed
that deal as the ES dropped to its 1300.75 low in the last
few seconds of futures trading.

For a change, there was no late day rebound as the bulls
have become accustomed to lately. at this juncture, a 1-2-3
type of top has formed. A test of the 1292.50-1291.50 area
would need to be quickly reversed, and rally with some
gusto, to avoid a melt-down type of move. For the market to
avoid trouble and get back into uptrends, both the 1309.50-
1310.00 area on the ES and the 2319.75-2320.50 zone on the
NQ (also 12100 on the Dow cash) will need to be cleared, and
then held on a pullback.

So, if the market opens lower, a bounce needs to start from
the 1298.00-1297.50 area on the ES to avoid a deeper
pullback. If that occurs, a bounce that stalls out near the
1304.50-1305.00 area should be sold if the market is going
lower. That would be the first hurdle for the market to
clear if it's not falling apart short term. A test of the
1292.50-1291.50 zone on the ES would need to be quickly
reversed, otherwise the downside could gather momentum and
break towards the 1282.50-1281.50 zone where the market must
catch a bid or collapse.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1304.50-1305.00
1309.50-1310.00 key
1316.75-1317.50

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1298.00-1297.50 key early
1292.50-1291.50 major
1288.50-1287.50
1282.50-1281.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2315.75-2316.25
2319.75-2320.50 key
2328.50-2330.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2306.50-2305.50 key early
2296.75-2295.00 major
2285.50-2284.50
2278.50-2277.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday- February 28, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
2 / 28 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:06 pm eastern time, 2/28/2011

The ES opened 5 points higher and then double topped at the
1327.50-1328.25 resistance before there was a pullback. The
ES held 1325 and then popped up to 1329.00 before reversing.
The stall set up a shorting opportunity and the ES dropped
to 1324.50 before bouncing. That bounce stopped right at the
1326.00 updated resistance and then rolled over and fell to
the key 1320-1319 zone. The ES turned up from 1319.25, and
having filled the gap on the daily chart buying/ shorts
covering turned the market back up. The ES rallied to
1324.25 again at 3 pm, then I stated that 1322.50-1322.25
needed to hold for a run to 1326.00. Although I personally
passed on that trade, the ES did hold that support and ran
up to 1326.25 where the ES stopped and dropped back to
1324.00 pivotal support with 10 minutes left in stock
trading. More buying came in there, and the market turned
back up and rallied into the close.

The market keeps recovering after every drop, especially in
the last 2 hours of trading. This action must continue,
otherwise the market will end up getting hit like last week.
Right now, as long as the ES holds the 1322.75-1322.00 zone,
the bulls are still in charge. If that area is not held,
then a break of the Monday lows is likely in the cards, and
maybe to 1312 again.

On the upside, bids have been pulled until the market
reaches lower levels so expect early strength to be sold
into. If the ES pops up to around the 1330 level and
stalls/reverses in the first 40 minutes of trading, then
that sets up a shorting opportunity to test that initial
support. If buyers don't step to the plate on a pullback to
that 1322.75-1322.00 area on the ES, then expect the 1317
area to be a key level to be defended. If that level is
reversed after an orderly pullback, a decent snap back rally
could occur. If that is not held, then the major support is
at the 1312.50-1312.00 zone, which should be seen as a good
reversal area if the market is not in the midst of a decent
sized selloff day.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1329.00-1330.00
1334.50-1335.00
1337.50-1338.50

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1322.75-1322.00
1319.75-1319.00
1317.00
1312.50-1312.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2356.75-2358.00
2365.75-2366.75
2374.50-2376.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2343.00-2342.25
2338.50-2337.50
2334.50
2328.75-2327.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

Sunday- February 27, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 27 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 2/27/2011

The 8 point gap up open on the ES was a surprise on Friday
morning, so we waited for the upside to stall at the
1317.50-1318.00 area to short, and a drop from 1318.00 down
to the 1312.25 updated support area occurred. That led to a
break/ hold over 1317 and a move up to 1320.00 then churning
happened for 2 hours into the close.

The market finally has seen a return of volatility. Last
week the ES had 23 different swings of 4.75 points, or more,
intraday. After topping at 1343.00, the ES dropped 50.50
points to the 1293-1292 zone on Thursday, then got turned
back up. The market got very oversold, and the Vix reversed
back down after a huge jump mid-week, sparking more upside
in stocks and by Friday afternoon the market averages had
recouped a bit more than half of its losses.

From here, the market has worked off the oversold condition
and the upside appears limited. On Monday we get the Chicago
PMI 15 minutes into trading, and the Pending Home Sales at
10 am. If there is early strength, it should be reversed in
the first 40 minutes of trading. If the 1320 level on the ES
broken through, it needs to hold or a reversal occurs. On
the first pullback, the initial support is going to have to
hold, or the next support areas will be next and key to
hold. If the 1312 area is not defended, then a move back
towards the 1308 area is likely in the cards before buyers
see a reason to step back in.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1319.50-1320.25
1322.50-1323.50
1327.50-1328.25


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1317.00
1312.50-1312.00
1308.50-1308.00
1302.50-1302.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2348.25-2350.25
2355.50-2356.50
2364.50-2366.25


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2343.75
2335.25-2334.50
2326.25-2325.25
2318.75-2317.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Thursday- February 24, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update

2 / 24 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 2/24/2011

The lower open was bought and the ES rallied to 1310.00
about an hour in. That topped it off, and after the first
pullback, a bounce reached and reversed the 1307 new
resistance and then dropped to the 1297.50 level. That
bounce off of support failed at the updated 1302-1303
updated resistance, and from 1302.25 the ES fell to 1292.50.
That was at the 1293-1293 last target and the market
reversed direction just before 2 pm. The ES rallied to
1305.00, then held the 1300.50 new support before one more
push up to 1308.50. That was sold and a drop to 1302.00
occurred at the close.

The bounce off of the 1292.50 support on the ES and double
bottom at 2285.00 on the NQ brought in buying, but it
doesn't look like it will stick. A rising wedge formed end
of day, and if the initial support is broken, a bounce high
will be in. A test of the initial resistance should set up
good shorting opportunity.

If initial support holds, then another bounce can occur but
the market is still vulnerable. A test of the 1292.50-
1291.50 zone will need to be reversed right away, or the
market ends the week on a bad note for the bulls.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1308.00-1308.50
1311.50-1312.00
1316.75-1317.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1300.50-1300.00
1298.00-1297.50
1292.50-1291.50
1288.50-1287.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2320.00-2321.00
2324.50-2325.25
2333.00-2334.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2301.50-2300.25
2296.75-2295.00
2285.50-2284.50
2278.50-2277.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday- February 23, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 23 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 8:36 pm eastern time, 2/23/2011

The lower open was bought and the ES popped to 1316.50 then
reversed. That was just under the "gift" sell zone at
1317.50-1318.00, and the ES dropped to the key 1308.50-
1307.50 key zone. A bounce to 1314.25 failed, then a drop to
1308.25 held and a bounce made it look like the ES double
bottomed. However, after a bounce to 1313.50 stalled it was
back to the short side as the bounce had no gusto. The ES
went trend down to 1300.25, then bounced to updated
resistance at 1305.00 before a plunge to the 1297.50 level.
Via Audio update, we took profits on shorts at the 1298-1297
zone, and that was timely as the ES rallied back almost 11
points to 1308.25. A pullback held around the 1304 level on
ES and 12100 on Dow cash, and gave it legs to run up to
1311.50 in the last 40 minutes of stock trading. Bounces
couldn't stick and the ES dropped 7 points to 1304.50
support at the close.

The ES was able to bounce from the 1297.50-1296.75 support,
however the upside still appears to be limited. The market
closed right at transition areas from Wednesday, at the 1304
area on the ES and 12100 level on the Dow cash. If those
areas are held then 1 more pop up to the 1312 area is
possible. If that 1304 area is not defended on Thursday,
then a test of Wednesday's lows is likely in the cards
again. If that 1297.50 low area is not quickly reversed
again, then it means more trouble for the bulls and the
1293-1292 area could easily be seen given current
volatility.

So, there could be a bit more upside coming but it should
set up a shorting opportunity at higher levels. On the
downside, if the 1304.50-1304.00 area is not held, then the
market can easily test/ break the Wednesday lows before a
short covering bounce occurs. The Vix buy signals should
be a plus as long as 1304 is not broken/ held on a bounce.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1311.50-1312.00
1316.75-1317.50
1322.25-1323.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1304.50-1304.00
1298.00-1297.50
1292.50-1291.50
1288.50-1287.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2312.75-2314.00
2324.50-2325.25
2333.00-2334.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2298.75-2298.00 *pivotal
2287.00-2285.50 *major
2278.50-2277.50
2270.50-2268.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Tuesday- February 22, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 22 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:06 pm eastern time, 2/22/2011

The ES opened down 15.75 points, bounced back from 1323.25
to 1334.50 then stalled out. After a pullback I stated:

"small rising wedge. 31.50 needs held" and when that
1331.50 broke: "28.50 test likely on this. not a buy,
short under 33.50 area"

The ES reached 1333.25 and reversed, starting a trend down
move that fell 21.75 points off its high to just over the
1312.50 support. A bounce to 1317.50 (new resistance at
1317-1318) stalled/reversed setting up a move to 1310.25
with an hour left in stock trading. The market held together
and bounced into the close.

The market finally broke down, and a rally back now would
only set up a repeat of the selloff. The Vix jumped 26% on
Tuesday, but unless/ until there is a reversal, that can
still go higher. The move down didn't show any panic type of
selling though, and despite closing breadth that was almost
8:1 in favor of losers, the closing Trin was just 1.27. If
there was capitulation that closing Trin would have been
3.00 or higher.

Wednesday should be a more 2-sided day, unless the 1308 area
on the ES is broken and not quickly reversed. A higher open
would be a gift short if there is a test/reversal from the
1317.50-1318.00 zone. That area is the first hurdle to
overcome, and hold, to avoid more trouble for the bulls.
Even if it is, a move to the 1322.25-1323.00 area should be
rejected then if the market is topping, or has topped
already. That should be the maximum rebound area on
Wednesday. However, if that 1317.50-1318.00 zone isn't
pushed through, then the bears are still in control short
term and the 1308 area on the ES should be key on further
weakness. If that is not defended, then back to 1300 or just
under that should be in the cards before a decent snap back
rally can begin. If the ES drops to the 1297.50-1296.75
area, it must turn up pronto, otherwise we get another big
down day.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1315.00-1315.50
1317.50-1318.00 key
1322.25-1323.00 strong
1326.75-1328.00 major

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1313.00-1312.50
1310.00
1308.50-1307.50 major
1302.00-1300.50
1297.50-1296.75

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2324.00-2324.50
2333.00-2334.00 key
2339.00-2340.00 strong
2351.75-2353.00 major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2318.00-2317.00
2315.00
2308.75-2307.75 major
2300.50-2298.75
2290.50-2288.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Monday- February 21, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 21 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 4:36 pm eastern time, 2/21/2011

After holding 1337 early on Friday, the ES rallied to
another new 52 week high at 1342.75 and stalled out. A
selloff to 1336.25 occurred, then after getting back over
1340 the market got another gear and rallied into the close.

The melt-up continues and about everything has gone up
lately. The market is on steroids, courtesy of the Fed, and
steroids cause unintended consequences. So far it hasn't
done anything wrong. It's still flabbergasting though that
the SP500 can rally almost 67 points in 3 weeks with barely
pulling back. When this ends, or when the end starts, it
will likely be an unintended consequence that sends the
market south fast.

The Monday action for the ES and NQ shows how easily the
market can fall apart when this move ends. The SP500 is 12%
above the 200 day moving average, and that has been near the
maximum even in good bull markets. The SP500 is +101% from
low to high in 23 months so far. The only other bull market
cycle to do that was the 1935-1937 bull market which doubled
in 24 months. Oddly, the NQ has had 3 days in a row with
lower high and a lower low while the blue chips made higher
highs, a bearish divergence at 2400 on the Nasdaq 100 cash
and futures.

On Tuesday we get Case-Shiller Index before the open and
then the Consumer Confidence survey release at 10 am. A
higher open is a short, as bids should dry up at best. If
the market opens lower, it should bounce right back from
above the 1328-1327 area if the market going to try hanging
in for a run-up. Don't expect a bounce to stick though, as
the 1336 area would become a key resistance area on a
bounce. If the ES closes under the 1336 area on Tuesday, it
would be the first sign of a top in quite a few weeks.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1343.00-1343.50
1345.25-1345.75 strong
1348.50-1349.25 major
1352.50-1354.00 huge


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1339.50-1339.00 pivotal
1337.25-1336.75
1330.50-1330.00
1327.50-1327.00 major
1322.25-1321.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2399.50-2400.75
2404.00-2404.50
2410.25-2412.00
2418.00-2419.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2384.50-2384.00
2380.25-2379.50
2370.50-2369.75
2366.50-2365.50
2358.50-2357.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Wednesday- February 16, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 16 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:01 pm eastern time, 2/16/2011

The ES opened up 4 points on Wednesday, and after turning
down from 1332.50 resistance, the dip reversed at 1330 and
took off higher and reached 1336.00 before stalling out.
Once the 1334.00 level broke, the downside picked up steam
and dropped to the 1328-1327 new support by noon. Shorts
were covered and a bounce from 1327.50 to 1333.00 happened
before the Fed Minutes release at 2pm. After the release,
the ES pulled back to updated support at 1330.50-1330.00 and
turned back up and rallied to 1135.00-1335.50 on ES and the
2400-2401 shorting zone on the NQ. Those areas were
rejected, and then the futures backed off into the close.

It seems like the market doesn't want to even pull back, let
alone go into a corrective selloff. At these levels, the
risk is being long as the rug could be pulled from under the
market at any time. On Thursday, look to sell a pop up to
test the initial resistance areas with a fairly tight stop.
On the downside, the 1330.50-1330.00 zone will need to be
quickly reversed on a test of that zone. If the market can
not turn around there, then things could be changing short
term.

NOTE: I will not be here on Thursday after 1pm. I will do
audio updates from around 1am to 12:30pm, but the next
Nightly update will be sent on Monday evening.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1335.25-1336.00
1338.25-1339.00
1340.50-1341.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1330.50-1330.00
1327.50
1325.25-1324.75
1322.50-1322.25 *key
1320.50-1320.00 *major


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2400.50-2401.50
2405.50-2406.50
2410.25-2412.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2386.50-2385.25
2382.50
2379.00-2378.50
2372.25-2370.50 *key
2366.75-2365.75 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Tuesday- February 15, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
2 / 15 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:26 pm eastern time, 2/15/2011

The lower open on Tuesday was reversed up from 1324.25 on
the ES, which was 1 tick under Monday's 1324.50 low, and a
bounce to the 1328.00-1328.50 area followed. As stated in
the Monday night update, that was key resistance and where
selling should come in. The 1328.00 level was reversed and
the ES dropped to 1322.25 before bouncing back to 1327.75 by
early afternoon. A double top formed and another pullback to
1322.25 held and a rebound started with 90 minutes left in
stock trading. A bounce back to 1327.00 occurred but that
was it as the market ended the day in a narrow range.

On Wednesday we get Housing Starts and PPI before the open,
and then the Fed Minutes at 2 pm. The back to back narrow
range days sets the market up for at least some better
volatility on Wednesday. If there is early strength, it
should be reversed in the first 40 minutes at the latest. If
that 1328.00-1328.50 is rejected again, it could start
another decent pullback.

On the other side of the coin, early weakness has been
setting up trades from the long side for a scalp at least.
If that is going to happen again, then a dip should hold the
1325.50-1324.75 zone for the stair step higher to continue.
So, look for a potential trade on the long side if that area
is held early. If that area is not defended, then the double
bottom at the 1322.25 area needs to be quickly reversed on a
third test, otherwise the market will be losing its
underlying bid and a change on the bigger picture could be
in the works. After the Fed Minutes are released, a quick
move up and down (or the opposite) could occur before a
trend then develops for a move that lasts into the last 30
minutes or so.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1
1327.00
1328.00-1328.50 *key
1331.75-1333.00 *major
1338.25-1339.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1
1325.50-1324.75
1322.50-1322.25 *key
1320.50-1320.00 *major
1317.50-1317.00
1313.25-1312.50 *mega major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1
2382.00
2383.25-2384.00 *key
2387.50-2388.50 *major
2396.75-2398.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1
2379.00-2378.50
2372.25-2370.50 *key
2366.75-2365.75 *major
2359.50-2358.50
2351.00-2349.50 *mega major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Monday- February 14, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 14 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:06 pm eastern time, 2/14/2011

The ES opened lower and bounced 3.50 points from the
1325.75-1325.25 support to the 1328.75 resistance, then
dropped 4.25 points to a lower low at 1324.50 around 11 am.
A turn around from that level took the ES up to 1329.50, and
then it went sideways in a 1.50 point range for about 2
hours. At 2:47 pm they broke out above 1329.50 and that
carried the ES to 1330.25 before pulling back almost 2
points. A bounce to test that 1330.25 level was rejected,
and the ES tested the 1328.50-1328.00 updated key support
before running up to 1331.25. After stocks closed the
futures turned down and the ES settled under that 1328.50-
1328.00 zone.

The market was weak early, and then rallied back to new 52
week high ground yet again on Monday. The way the day ended
though looked telling. The SP500 cash would double its 2009
low at 666.79 by reaching 1333.58 and it reached 1332.96
intraday on Monday. The ES nearby contract made a low at
665.75, and that is up 100% at 1331.50. The Monday high on
the ES was 1331.25. After reaching those highs in the last
half hour on Monday, the futures dropped in the last 30
minutes to settle well off of their highs. Hopefully you
weren't trapped buying a potentially important top on
Monday.

So far the Nasdaq 100 is the only average to clear its 2007
high. The Nasdaq Composite was about 60 points shy, and the
Dow and SP500 are a long ways away still. That divergence is
not healthy. Along with the price action on Monday, the Vix
gave a sell signal at Monday's close as the sentiment is
making a subtle shift from overly complacent.

Lately early weakness gets reversed in the first 40 minutes
and then the market rallies back to make a higher high. On
Tuesday, we could see the same action early, however if
there is a test of the Monday highs that stalls/ reverses,
it would set up a gift for a shorting opportunity. At this
juncture, all rallies are suspect as the 1320.50-1320.00
area will be key on a move lower. If that area is tested, it
must be quickly reversed to get a decent bounce underway.
However, if that area does give a bounce, don't expect it to
hold as things could get a bit ugly if the ES fails at/
under the 1328.25-1328.75 area on a bounce attempt.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1328.25-1328.75
1331.75-1333.00
1338.25-1339.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1325.25-1324.50
1323.50
1320.50-1320.00
1317.50-1317.00
1313.25-1312.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2382.50-2383.25
2387.50-2388.50
2396.75-2398.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2377.00-2376.50
2371.50
2366.75-2365.75
2359.50-2358.50
2351.00-2349.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Sunday- February 13, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 13 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 2/13/2011

The lower open reversed 20 minutes in and it was trend up to
1320.50 level on the ES, then updated support at 1318.50
held and a run to 1327.00 followed. We got short near
1324.50 and rode it to new support/ target at 1320.50 where
the pullback held and then turned back up. The 1325 level
held the market down for a bit, then the ES broke out and
went to the 1328.25-1328.75 resistance by 2:45 pm. A small
dip was bought, but the ES double topped at 1328.75 and
pulled back 3 points before the close.

The market is getting crazy acting. It is starting to act a
lot like 1987 and 1999. Both of those years were the 3rd
year in the Presidential cycle, and the market was
invincible. Another 12 years later in 2011, it's the same
price action (except not at *record* highs this time) but
for different reasons. I'm just sayin...

Anyhow, last week the market rallied early in the week,
dropped into Thursday morning at the 1308 support zone, and
then rallied all the way back to new 52 week highs, reaching
the 1328.75 resistance on the ES on Friday. This move has
momentum, but is getting a bit frothy. In any case, the 1320
area had been good overhead resistance, and now it will take
a break back under the 1320.50-1320.00 zone to have a
reversal. Actually, if the market is going to stay in a good
uptrend, the 1325.75-1325.25 initial support would need to
be held.

On the top side, the ES did make a little double top at the
1328.75 resistance level. A small short position was taken
there, but the way the market is acting, that should be
covered if there is early weakness on Monday. If that
1328.25-1328.75 area is exceeded, then a move to the
1332.50-1333.00 area on the ES would be next.

Lately the market has been weak early, and then is able to
get footing and rally again. Since Friday was basically a
trend up day, look for early strength to be sold, and then
if the first decent pullback gets its footing over the
1320.50-1320.00 area on the ES, it should set up another
rally attempt. However, if the 1320.50-1320.00 area on the
ES is not held, then things could be changing short term and
bounces will likely fail under the 1325.00-1325.50 area or
lower if the market is rolling over.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1328.25-1328.75
1332.50-1333.00
1338.25-1339.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1325.75-1325.25
1323.50
1320.50-1320.00
1317.50-1317.00
1313.25-1312.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2380.00-2380.50
2386.00-2386.50
2396.75-2398.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2375.00-2374.50
2371.50
2366.75-2365.75
2359.50-2358.50
2351.00-2349.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday- February 10, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 10 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 2/10/2011

The ES opened almost 8 points lower and bounced from the
1308.50-1308.00 major area and then rallied back to the 1317
area before pulling back. The 1313.50-1312.50 area held on a
pullback, and a move to 1319.50 followed, but the move
didn't stick and the ES pulled back to the 1314.50 updated
support. Another run up failed at 1318.50, but the 1315.25
level on the ES and the 12200 level on the Dow cash were
reversed and a sprint to a 1320.50 high was followed. A wild
ride up promptly reversed, and another drop to 1315.25
occurred then the ES ran back up to 1319.50 before the
close.

The market was able to rally off of the 1308.50-1308.00 area
on the ES on Thursday, which is the good news. The bad news
is that the 1320 area was rejected again. Also, the Nasdaq
futures, which rallied back nicely from its early low at
2340.00, have had all sorts of trouble pushing through the
2363-2365 area. That area has been rejected 8 times over the
past 2 days.

So, things look to be changing short term and bounces should
have trouble getting to, let alone holding, over the 1320
level on the ES and 2365 on the NQ. On the downside, the
initial support will need to be quickly reversed to avoid
trouble on Friday. If the market gets down there early and
reverses, then a good snap back rally could occur. However,
even if that happens, the market will set up a better
shorting opportunity as soon as upside momentum stalls.

If the initial support is broken and held instead of
reversing back up, then a trip back to the 1308 area will
probably be in the cards. That area would need to be quickly
reversed, and leave a double bottom on the charts, to get a
decent rally in gear. If that area is not held, then the
1304.00-1303.50 would be next, and would be key to hold to
avoid seeing the 1298-1297 area again.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1320.00-1320.50 *key
1322.75-1323.50
1328.25-1328.75
1332.50-1333.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1315.25-1314.50 *key
1311.25-1310.50
1308.50-1308.00 *major
1304.00-1303.50
1298-1297


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2364.50-2365.00 *key
2368.50-2369.50
2374.75-2376.00
2384.00-2385.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2355.00-2354.50 *key
2349.50-2348.50
2340.50-2339.50 *major
2330.25-2328.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Wednesday- February 09, 2011

No Update for Tonight-Dr. Appointment

 

Tuesday- February 08, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 8 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 2/8/2011

The ES opened at the 1317 resistance and dropped to the
1313.50-1312.50 support in the first 40 minutes of trading,
and then ran up from 1313.00 to 1320.50 shortly after noon.
A pullback to updated support at 1317.00 followed, then a
run up to 1320.75 occurred. A dip back to the updated
support at 1318.50 was reversed and the ES bounced to
1321.25. A dip held 1320.00 new support in the last 30
minutes and reached a 1322.25 high (just under the 1322.75-
1323.50 zone) before the close.

This move up has been relentless, and will continue unless
the ES breaks back under 1320 and holds there on a bounce.
We had early weakness get reversed on Tuesday and the move
was basically trend up. Back to back trend days are not
common.

Wednesday should be a more 2-sided affair. If there is early
strength, it should reverse in the first 20-40 minutes and
then see how the ES handles the 1320 area. If that is
defended, the melt up move can continue. If it's not held,
then the 1317 area should be a key, pivotal, area on a
deeper pullback. If that is broken, then odds will be better
for a bounce to fail.

NOTE: A HEADS UP, I will be away on Wednesday from 1pm until
late, so there will not be a Wednesday night update.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1322.75-1323.50
1325.50-1326.00
1328.25-1328.75
1332.50-1333.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1320.00
1318.50-1318.00
1317.00-1316.50
1313.00-1312.50
1308.50-1308.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2364.00-2364.50
2368.50-2369.50
2374.75-2376.00
2384.00-2385.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2358.00
2356.25-2355.50
2350.75-2350.00
2344.00-2343.00 key
2336.75-2335.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Monday- February 07, 2011

 .................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 7 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:46 pm eastern time, 2/7/2011

The ES gapped up on the open, and after a small dip to
1312.50 new support about 20 minutes in, it was trend up to
1320.00. The move stalled and when the 1317.25 level broke
and then held 1317.25 on a bounce, a drop to 1313.25
occurred in the last hour. A bounce back to that 1317.25
level occurred before pulling back into the settlement.

The market keeps making higher highs, but the action on
Monday looked a bit toppy. A move up will need to break/
hold over the initial resistance areas, not reject those
areas, to avoid a decent pullback on Tuesday. The Vix
reversal gave 1 sell signal on Monday. Lately the short term
overbought/ oversold indicators have done a good job at
turns.

So, look for early weakness to be bought on Tuesday,
especially if the initial support is held/ reversed early.
If that plays out, the first decent bounce should be a good
shorting opportunity as soon as an early bounce stalls out.
If that's not at the 1317 area then the Monday highs could
get a test before a reversal occurs.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1316.50-1317.25
1319.50-1320.50
1322.75-1323.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1313.50-1312.50
1308.50-1308.00
1305.50-1304.50
1298.00-1297.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2350.00-2350.50
2359.00-2360.50
2368.50-2369.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2341.50-2340.50
2336.75-2335.50
2332.25-2331.50
2325.50-2324.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Sunday- February 06, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
2 / 6 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:26 pm eastern time, 2/6/2011

The ES popped up and reversed from 1306.00 (the 1305.50-
1306.50 zone) on the open on Friday, and dropped 6 points to
the 1300.50-1299.75 zone. A bounce off of 1300.00 failed at
1306.25, again, and then an 8+ point drop to the 1298.00-
1297.50 key zone followed. From 1298.00, the ES rallied back
to 1305.75 shortly after 1 pm, then a dip to updated key
support at 1304 followed. The market bounced right back and
the ES reached the 1308.00-1308.50 resistance zone at the
close.

The market has been pulling back in the morning, and then is
able to come right back and rally to new highs. The support
and resistance areas have been acting as magnets and/or
turning points all of the way up. On Friday the ES was able
to get over the 1306 prior high, after failing there on four
or five occasions, and moved on up to the next resistance at
the 1308.00-1308.50 zone. There was good movement both ways.
These were the swings of 4 or more ES points on Friday:

Price CHANGE
1306.25
1300.00 -6.25
1306.00 +6.00
1298.00 -8.00
1308.25 +10.25

For this move to keep its steady trend up, then a pullback
should stay over the 1305.50 area and then push on to new
highs again. If that is the case, then we could see the
1312-1313 area before the move is over. Otherwise, if the
initial support areas are not held, then just below are the
Friday afternoon lows at the 1304.00-1303.50 zone. If a
pullback is not able to hold that area, then the upside pace
is broken and a trip down towards the 1298 area could be in
the cards again.

So, on Monday look to sell early strength in the first 20-40
minutes of trading, and then if the first pullback is able
to hold the 1304.00-1303.50 zone then the upside can
continue and at least test the 1308 area again. However, if
that 1304 area is not held, then the bounces should fail as
the market makes a trip back towards the 1298 area. If that
occurs, especially early, then the market should come back
and rally strong and if things are not changing. If the
market gets down there and isn't able to snap a right back,
then the market might be in for a rough day.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1308.00-1308.50
1312.00-1313.00
1318.00-1318.50

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1305.50
1304.00-1303.50
1298.00-1297.50
1292.25-1291.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2338.75-2339.50
2344.75-2345.50
2352.75-2354.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2334.50
2332.25-2331.50
2325.50-2324.50
2317.50-2316.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Thursday- February 03, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 3 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 6:28 pm eastern time, 2/3/2011

The ES opened at the 1298.00-1297.50 support and bounced to
1301.50 resistance, then dropped to 1298.00 again. A pop to
1301.25 was rejected and unable to hold 1300, the market was
sold hard until reaching the 1292.25-1291.50 support zone.
The ES rallied back to 1300.50 and stalled out, however the
pullback held the 1298.50-1298.00 updated support and there
was a break out to the upside. The move reached 1305.75
(1305.50-1306.50 key resistance) and then pulled back to
updated support at 1303.50 by the close.

The internal gauges are at/ near turning points, and at
these levels the Friday action should be telling for the
short to intermediate term health of the market. On one side
of the coin, the intermediate term internal gauges are
trying to turn up. At the same time, short term gauges are
nearing overbought areas, and the sentiment has gone from
overly bearish to overly bullish. The ES has finally
overcome the 1300 level, and now needs to hold this area.

The early Friday action will be about the Employment report.
The trends are up, but the market hasn't been able to get
through the 1306 area twice now. If that area is cleared,
and not rejected, then a mini melt up towards the 1312.00-
1313.00 area is not impossible. If that was to happen, it
would set up the easiest shorting opportunity in a long
time. In fact, there will likely be selling into any further
strength up here as the reward/ risk is not great on new
longs up here.

So, if that 1306 area on the ES is rejected again, then
a pullback would need to hold over the 1300.50-1299.75 zone
on the ES, or 1298 at the worst. As long as the market keeps
its "buy the first good pullback" mode and holds that area,
then the market remains unharmed. However, if that area is
not defended, then something is changing and a deeper drop
could occur. The low on Thursday was at the 1292.25-1291.50
zone, and that is major now on the short term.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1305.50-1306.50 *key
1308.00-1308.50
1312.00-1313.00 *major


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1303.00
1300.50-1299.75
1298.00-1297.50 *strong
1292.25-1291.50 *major
1288.50-1287.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2325.50-2327.75 *key
2332.25-2333.00
2338.75-2340.00 *major


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2320.50
2317.50-2317.00
2312.50-2311.50 *strong
2296.50-2295.50 *major
2291.00-2290.25

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Wednesday- February 02, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 2 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:56 pm eastern time, 2/2/2011

After trading at the 1298.00-1297.50 support just before
stocks opened, the ES bounced from 1299.25 on the open and
rallied 5 points to 1304.25 after an hour of trading. We
covered shorts/ puts from 1305 area on the open, and pretty
much stood aside the rest of the day. It turned out that the
whole day was inside of the first hours trading range, with
a late drop testing the low.

We had an inside day on Tuesday, as the market digested the
Monday gains. The bounces couldn't stick, but still the
market refused to fall apart. Most indicators are back to
neutral now.

On Wednesday early weakness should set up a trade on the
long side as long as the initial support is held. However,
if that plays out, beware that when the upside stalls out it
should set up a better shorting opportunity. The market
hasn't liked the thin air over 1304 on the ES and the 2326
on the NQ for very long. The way the market acted late in
the day on Tuesday showed how eager longs were to cover. If
the ES stays under 1300, instead of reversing back up
through it, then there could end up being a sizable drop in
the works.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1301.50
1305.50-1306.50 *key
1308.00-1308.50
1312.00-1313.00 *major


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1302.00-1301.50
1298.00-1297.50
1292.25-1291.50
1288.50-1287.50
1284.50-1283.75 *major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2320.00
2327.50-2328.25 key
2332.25-2333.00
2338.75-2340.00 *major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2215.25-2314.50
2304.50-2303.25
2296.50-2295.25
2291.00-2290.25
2286.50-2285.75 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Tuesday- February 01, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

2 / 1 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:56 pm eastern time, 2/1/2011

The ES gapped up 8+ points and kept going in trend up mode
to the updated 1305.50-1306.50 zone. A pullback held at
1302.00, and a bounce to a high at 1306.00 occurred with 8
minutes left in stock trading. That was rejected and a
pullback towards 1302 occurred after stocks closed. We
bought a small position in put options when the ES was at
1305 and will hold those overnight.

The Vix gave a number of buy signals that I didn't trust
coming into Tuesday trading, and the signals proved to be
correct. Now, for the first time in months, my RBI
Oscillator poked into sell mode and I'll not ignore that.
Tuesday was a trend up day, and back to back trend moves are
rare so Wednesday should be a two-sided affair at best. The
rallies should have trouble holding, but a decent sized
pullback should find buyers below, especially if the 1298-
1297 area on the ES is tested and held.

So, on Wednesday look to sell early strength if there is
some to set up a good odds shorting opportunity. If that
plays out, then a pullback towards the 1298 area should hold
if the market is going to have 2 sided action. If that area
is not defended, then a move back to the lower 1290's is
likely before a bounce can occur. If the market opens lower
and turns up from support, then a test of the 1306 area
could still occur but will be sold unless the market does
the unusual.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1305.50-1306.50 *key
1308.00-1308.50
1312.00-1313.00 *major


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1302.00-1301.50
1298.00-1297.50
1292.25-1291.50
1288.50-1287.50
1284.50-1283.75 *major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2327.50-2328.25 *key
2332.25-2333.00
2338.75-2340.00 *major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2319.00-2318.00
2212.00-2310.50
2296.50-2295.25
2291.00-2290.25
2286.50-2285.75 *major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

Monday- January 31, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 31 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:56 pm eastern time, 1/31/2011

The ES opened up 5+ points and in the 1277.50-1278.50 zone
and dropped 3.50 points to the 1274.50 updated support and
bounced back. That bounce failed at 1277.50 and a low at
1273.25 was made. After the 1278 area was broken, it turned
support and the ES rallied to 1283.75 before pulling back. A
bounce then failed at 1283.00, setting up a shorting
opportunity, and the ES pulled back to 1277.50 before
reversing back up. The last hour was back to the upside as
the ES reached its 1283.75 high just before the close.

Normally the last day of the month and the first trading day
of the month has an upside bias. The Vix reversed a bit, and
gave a short term buy signal but I'm not sure I trust that
just yet. The ES found support around the 1278 area, but
bounces were not easily held on Monday. The ES made an
inside day, and acted range-bound on Monday.

On Tuesday, early strength should be sold and then if the
1278 area is defended on a pullback then the damage can be
undone. If that area is not held, then a move to test last
Friday's lows could be in the cards. With the ISM Index
release 30 minutes into the day, a trading high/ low should
be made in that timeframe and last into the lunchtime
trading if the market action is going to be a volatile two
sided day.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1283.75-1284.50
1287.50-1288.50 key
1291.50-1292.25


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1280.50-1279.75
1278.00-1277.50 pivotal
1273.25-1272.50
1267.50-1266.50 major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2285.75-2286.50
2290.25-2291.00
2295.25-2296.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2276.50-2275.50
2268.75-2267.50
2256.00-2254.50
2248.50-2246.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Sunday- January 30, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 30 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 1/30/2011

We were expecting a pullback to 1288 at least, and got a lot
more! The pop up open reversed from just over the key
resistance and then went straight to 1283.25 before a small
bounce. The update stated "This is a crashette day" and
although it wasn't *that* bad, we stayed with shorts. After
the early low at the 1272.50 updated support (we covered
shorts just over that), I updated stating that "It looks
like the 1279.50-1280.50 area should offer resistance" and
the bounce reached 1279.25 and then reversed. That was a
nice re-entry on the short side and another 7 point drop to
1272.00 followed. A bounce double topped at 1278 and rolled
over, and it looked like there was a chance for a low with
about 20 minutes left. With 18 minutes left the ES bounced
off of 1271.00 new low to 1274.50 updated resistance before
plunging to 1270.50 at the close.

The 12,000 area on the Dow cash and 1300 area on the SP500
Cash were reversed on Thursday, and then again in the first
20 minutes on Friday. That was the maximum upside before a
pullback, and the market came unglued on Friday as the SP
futures and the Nasdaq futures dropped 29.00 and 71.50
points, respectively, off of their early highs. That kind of
move is not one that the market will come roaring right back
from and zoom up to new highs.

The market is short term oversold and sentiment really
shifted to bearish in a hurry. The Vix jumped 24% to close
over 20 on Friday, after being as low as 15.92 in the
morning. A reversal by the Vix will be needed to take a bit
of pressure off, but volatility should be back in a good way
now. The new VIXY had a nice 7 dollar move on Friday.

There should be more downside coming, as long as bounces do
not break over the 1277.50-1278.50 area on the ES and the
2275.50-2276.00 zone on the NQ and then hold those zones on
a pullback. Those would be the first hurdles to overcome on
a bounce. If those are exceeded, then one more move towards
the 1282 area on the ES would be possible. However, if those
are not exceeded/ held then odds are still good that we will
next test the 1258 area, which is the low area for the year
and an old breakout area on the way up. If the market can
hold there, then a decent bounce back can occur. If the
market gets down there, and cannot hold, then we could see
another 10 points or more cut from the SP500 cash and
futures before the selling gets a respite.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1274.50
1277.50-1278.50
1281.75-1282.50
1287.25-1288.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1270.50
1267.50-1266.50
1263.00-1262.00
1258.50-1257.50
1252.50-1251.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2270.00
2275.50-2276.00
2284.75-2286.50
2295.25-2296.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2264.00
2259.00-2258.00
2252.50-2250.50
2238.75-2237.50
2228.50-2227.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Thursday- January 27, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 27 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 6:12 pm eastern time, 1/27/2011

The 1292.00-1291.25 support zone on the ES was bought on the
open (1292.00 early low) and the 1297.75-1298.50 resistance
zone was reached and rejected (1298.00 early high). After a
pullback, a pop up reversed the 1296.50 level setting up a
short and a drop to 1290.75 followed. After turning up, the
1293.50-1294.00 area was broken and held on a dip and the ES
went back up to test the 1296.50 level, again. After a dip,
one more push up to 1298.25 was rejected in the last 15
minutes and the ES dropped to 1295.00 before the close.

The 1297.75-1298.50 area on the SP Futures has looked like
the maximum upside since the rally from the 1277 level
started last week. It was rejected early on Thursday, and
then again in the final minutes of trading. The SP500 cash
reached 1301 intraday on Thursday, and there is symmetry at
that level on the cash index. The Dow is working on its 9th
straight weekly gain, something that last happened 16 years
ago in 1995, and it would have to lose 118 points to close
down for the week.

So there is some reason to expect a pullback, at least,
short term. If the initial support areas are held and
reversed early, then a snap back bounce is likely. However,
a bounce will fail to hold over 1296.50 if it acts like it
did on Thursday. The better reward / risk trade at this
juncture is a short if the initial, key, resistance is
tested again and the move stalls/ reverses. If that occurs
and the market then turns back down, it should be the start
of a move to the 1288 area if there is no sign of holding
the 1293.50 area. If that 1288 area is tested, the bulls
need to defend that or the market may be in for a little
break down.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1297.75-1298.50 key
1301.00-1301.50
1305.50-1306.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1294.00-1293.50 key
1288.25-1287.50 major
1283.00-1282.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2328.50-2329.25 key
2333.75-2334.50
2339.50-2340.25


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2318.00-2317.50 key
2312.50-2311.50 major
2299.50-2298.50


Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Wednesday- January 26, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
1 / 26 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 5:26 pm eastern time, 1/26/2011

The gap up open was sold from the 1290.50-1292.00 resistance
and the pullback to 1288.25 to fill the gap stalled before
turning up and running to 1296.00. A pullback held the
1291.00-1290.50 new support area and rallied back to 1296.50
and was rejected. A pullback held 1293.00 and popped back up
to test/ reject 1296.50 one more time then pulled back into
the close.

The market should pull back towards the 1288 area on the
ES at least as long as the 1296.50-1298.00 area on the ES is
not exceeded now. That area was rejected on Wednesday, and
should be hard to get through and not reverse.

On the down side, the market has had a good bid on the
deeper drops as soon as the downside stalls out. IF that
continues, and the market firms up after a decent sized
pullback occurs (especially on a test of the 1288 area on
the ES), then beware of yet another rally attempt. However,
if the ES cannot defend that area, then the trends reverse
and a top on Fed day may be in place.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1
1294.50-1295.00
1297.75-1298.50
1301.00-1301.50

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1
1292.00-1291.25
1288.25-1287.50
1283.00-1282.50
1277.50-1276.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1
2317.50-2318.25
2323.50-2324.25
2330.25-2332.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1
2313.00-2312.50
2308.00-2307.50
2299.50-2298.50
2293.50-2292.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

Tuesday- January 25, 2011

.................................................
TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
1 / 25 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 1/25/2011

The lower open reversed from 1282.00 and spiked up to
1288.50 again before reversing and dropping to the 1278.50-
1278.00 support zone before noon. A 1-2-3 bottom at that
area (see "Read the Greed") started a bounce to 1284.75
(updated resistance was 1284.00-1284.50) and it stalled out
before another drop to a new low at 1277.00. A pop to
1280.50 updated resistance was sold, and a drop to test the
lows followed. A reversal took the ES over 1280.50, which
turned into support on a dip, and then moved on up to
1285.25 with about 30 minutes left in stock trading. A
pullback held the updated support at 1282.50-1282.00 and ran
up to test the 1288 area again at the close.

The market is in a trading range and the bottom and top were
tested on Tuesday. The Vix buy signals worked after the
market had a deep pullback. However, the market has not held
gains and if there is yet another reversal from that 1288
area then we could repeat the Tuesday action and have more
two-sided action. If that's the case there should be
opportunity on both sides. The ES and NQ both made good
moves both ways. the ES made these swings of 4 points or
greater:

1282.00
1288.50 +6.50
1282.50 -6.00
1286.50 +4.00
1278.25 -8.25
1284.75 +6.50
1277.00 -7.75
1288.25 +11.25

The volatility at these levels should continue. We get the
New Home Sales number 30 minutes into the day on Wednesday,
and then the Fed decision on interest rate policy around
2:15 pm eastern time. For now the market is in an uptrend so
look for early strength to be sold in the first 40 minutes
of trading, and then a pullback to the 1283.00-1282.50 zone
on the ES needs to be defended on a pullback. If there is a
trending move going into the Fed release, it should be
reversed. In any case, after the release expect a quick up
and down move (or vice versa), and then the market should
find a trend and go that direction until the last 30 minutes
or so.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1
1288.00-1288.75
1290.50-1292.00
1294.50-1295.00
1297.75-1298.50

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1
1283.00-1282.50
1277.50-1276.50 (11900 on Dow cash) *major
1274.50-1274.00
1268.25-1267.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1
2302.25-2303.50
2309.50-2310.50
2318.50-2319.25
2323.50-2324.25

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1
2293.50-2292.50
2282.50-2281.50 *major
2279.25-2278.50
2267.00-2265.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Monday - January 24, 2011

 

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 24 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:56 pm eastern time, 1/24/2011

The lower open at the 1279.00-1278.50 initial support gave a
move up to the 1282.75-1283.25 initial resistance zone, then
dropped back to the 1279.00 level and bounced again. The
bounce failed at 1281.75 but a third pullback to 1279.00-
1278.50 held and the 1282.75-1283.25 zone was tested again.
The 1280.50 level held and the breakout took the ES to the
1287.50-1288.25 key resistance before buyers backed off. A
break of the 1285.50 updated support led to a drop to
1283.75 updated support and then ran up 6 points in the last
hour to new highs for the day by the close.

the oversold rally on Monday erased many of the short term
oversold extremes that were present. however, the Vix
reversal from a 20 day high on Monday gave several buy
signals on Monday's close. we'll see about that, as we get
the Consumer Confidence release 30 minutes into trading on
Tuesday. At these levels, the market should take a poor
number as an excuse to sell stocks. If that's what happens,
then the last hour lows from Monday will need to be defended
to avoid a potential 1-2-3 type of top on the daily charts.

So, on Tuesday look for early strength to set up a shorting
opportunity if the initial resistance areas are reached and
rejected. If the market obliges and there is a pullback that
holds the initial support areas, then the uptrend can
continue and set up a trade on the long side. If the initial
support isn't held, then the 1284.00-1283.50 zone on the ES
needs to hold or a reversal of trends will occur. If the
market does get hit with a decent sized pullback, then the
1278.50-1278.00 zone would be a major area to hold to avoid
a topping pattern.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1290.50-1292.00
1294.50-1295.00
1297.75-1298.50

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1286.50
1284.00-1283.50
1281.00-1280.50
1278.50-1278.00
1274.50-1274.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2299.50-2301.00
2309.50-2310.50
2318.50-2320.25

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2294.50
2292.50-2291.75
2287.00-2286.25
2279.25-2278.50
2267.00-2265.75

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

Sunday - January 23, 2011

 

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 23 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 1/23/2011

The market gapped up on Friday (8.75 points on the ES) and
the ES reached its 1287.75-1288.25 zone (1288.00 high) while
the NQ reached the 2299.00-2300.50 zone (2299.75 high) and
the market rolled over and went trend down until around
noon. Our 1280.25 level to cover shorts was reached (about 7
ES points, and 23 NQ points) as the ES found support at
1279.00 and started a choppy move higher. Updated resistance
at the 1282.50-1283.00 area was rejected all afternoon, and
was a re-short as the ES fell to test the 1278.25 level,
which started as initial resistance for the day before a gap
up open, just before stocks closed.

The oversold rally happened on Friday's open, and then the
market spent the day giving back gains. The Dow made a new
52 week high by popping over 11900, but the Nasdaq futures
were trend down all day, losing 34 points from high to low.
There are some short term oversold indicators still.
However, the Dow making a new high without the Nasdaq going
with it leaves the market suspect on bounce attempts.

On Monday look to get short if there is early strength and
the move reverses from the initial resistance areas. If that
area is rejected, and then the initial support will need to
be defended on the first pullback in order to avoid a trip
to the 1274.50-1274.00 zone. If they hold and reverse from
that zone, then a decent rebound could occur. If the market
gets back down there, and buyers don't step to the plate and
turn the market back up quickly, then another push lower
towards last week's 1267.50 low (or lower) is likely in the
cards.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1282.75-1283.25
1287.50-1288.25
1291.00-1292.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1279.00-1278.50
1274.50-1274.00
1268.00-1267.50
1265.00-1264.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2277.75-2278.75
2290.50-2291.75
2299.50-2301.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2266.00-2265.75
2258.75-2257.75
2248.50-2246.75
2242.00-2240.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

 

Thursday - January 20, 2011

 

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 20 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:12 pm eastern time, 1/20/2011

The ES opened lower and reached the 1270.75 support about 8
minutes into trading, and then a bounce to 1278.00 followed.
That set up a shorting opportunity and the market went trend
down to the 1268.50-1268.00 zone (a 1267.50 low) and bounced
again just before noon. The 1274 area turned pivotal, and
once that was overcome the ES rallied to 1280.25 (right at
the 1280.00-1280.50 initial resistance). That was rejected
and a dip to 1278.00 followed, but it didn't hold and a drop
back to the 1274.00 level occurred in the last 30 minutes of
trading and then the market firmed into the close.

The intermediate term gauges are looking worse, but short
term the market is a bit oversold. The 1274 area on the ES
was pivotal on Thursday, along with 11800 on the Dow cash.
As long as that is held early, then the market can try
to move a bit higher, maybe back to test or break the
1280.00-1280.50 area. That would be key on the upside. If
the market cannot push through those Thursday afternoon
highs and stick, the market will remain vulnerable for more
on the downside.

So, look for the initial support areas to be key in the
early going if there is weakness. As long as those areas are
defended, then a move back towards the 1280's is possible
before the bids dry up and the market pulls back again. If
there is early strength first, then look for a shorting
opportunity if the 1277.50-1278.25 initial resistance is
reversed. If it's not, then the 1280.00-1280.50 area would
be next, and then a dip would need to hold 1278 to avoid a
reversal, and decent sized drop once again. If the ES breaks
under that 1274 area again, and cannot turn back up, then
another air pocket drop could occur.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1277.50-1278.25
1280.00-1280.50
1283.00-1283.75
1287.75-1288.25


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1274.50-1274.00
1272.50-1271.50
1268.00-1267.50
1265.00-1264.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2287.50-2288.50
2293.50-2294.50
2299.00-2300.50
2311.00-2312.25


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2279.00-2278.00
2274.50-2273.50
2267.50-2266.50
2260.50-2359.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed



 

Wednesday - January 19, 2011

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 19 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 1/19/2011

The market opened lower on Wednesday, under initial support
zones, and the ES dropped to 1286 support before bouncing.
The ES rejected the 1288.00-1288.50 zone and dropped to
1281.75 before another small bounce. That failed at 1283.50-
1284.00 updated resistance and the trend down move then
finally reached the 1276 target on the way to 1275.00. With
less than 30 minutes left in stock trading, the market found
buyers/ shorts covering and bounced back into the close.

The market finally broke down and put a dent in the upside
momentum. However, after a 20 point drop on the ES from
1295.00 to 1275.00, the move down lost some steam late on
Wednesday and ran up in the last 25 minutes of trading. That
could be because there are a lot of economic releases out on
Thursday. We get the Initial and Continuing Claims before
the open, and then the Existing Home Sales, Leading
Indicators and Philly Fed releases 30 minutes into the day.

On Thursday look for early strength to set up a shorting
opportunity, especially if the initial resistance is not
cleared/ held. If that plays out and the Wednesday lows are
broken by just a just a little bit and then reversed, then a
decent rebound could occur. Still, it would fail to break
and stay over the 1280 area if the market is weak. If that
initial resistance is cleared, and then can hold on a dip,
then one more push towards the 1283.50 area could be in the
cards (or towards the 1287.75-1288.25 zone at the most)
before the downside starts again.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1280.00-1280.50
1283.00-1283.75
1287.75-1288.25


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1275.00-1274.50
1271.75-1270.75
1268.50-1268.00
1265.00-1264.50
1262.00-1261.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2302.00-2303.50
2311.00-2312.25
2316.00-2317.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2293.00-2291.50
2288.25-2287.50
2284.00-2283.25
2279.50-2279.00
2274.50-2273.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

Tuesday - January 18, 2011

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 18 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:46 pm eastern time, 1/18/2011

The ES popped up to 1290.50 on the open on Tuesday, and then
dropped to 1286.50 before turning back up. Not able to stay
under 1287 for very long, the bids came back in and the
market started a grinding move to the upside. The 1291.75
resistance was rejected after 2 pm, but just a small dip to
1289.50 was reversed quickly and after the 1291.00 early
high was broken and held, the futures made a run to new
highs right at their close.

The earnings reports after the close were well received so
there should be follow through buying on Wednesday. The ES
is closing in on the 1300 area, and if the NQ can keep its
bid, the ES should get pulled up with it, and possibly
attempt to reach the 1297.50-1298.50 zone.

However, should the market pop up early and then reverse
(especially from 1297.50-1298.50) and not defend the initial
support areas, a top of some sort should be in place. After
9 straight up days to new 52 week highs by the Nasdaq
futures, the market will be pulling back/ selling off soon.
If there is early strength that reverses the initial
resistance areas, it should be a good reward/ risk
opportunity on the short side for a pullback towards the
initial support areas, at least.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1297.50-1298.50
1300.50-1301.50
1305.50-1306.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1292.75-1292.50
1291.00
1289.50-1288.50
1286.50-1286.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2335.75-2337.50
2342.50-2344.25
2352.50-2353.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2327.50-2326.75
2323.50
2318.75-2317.75
2310.75-2308.75


Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

 

Monday - January 17, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 17 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 4:36 pm eastern time, 1/17/2011

The lower open on Friday was reversed, and after breaking/
holding the 1278.50 level the move was trend up to the top
of the recent range. We did buy a small put position, but
traded around that with the ES as all the dips were to a new
updated support (1284.50, then 1287.00 as the last support)
on the way to 1290.00 by the close.

The market is in a melt up mode, despite technical extremes.
The pullbacks are relatively small, then it's back to the
upside. This is flabbergasting that the market refuses to
pull back even a little, and is turning into a mania that
likely ends soon. The market has gone up for eight straight
weeks, and without having anything more than a pullback of
one-third of one percent. That's 1/3 of 1% if numbers look
different, but amazing how ever you look at it.

In any case, the stair step higher will continue unless the
1287.00 level on the ES is broken, then held as resistance
on a bounce. Even then, the 1284.50-1283.50 zone should also
be important, as it was the old high area from 2 weeks ago.
So, there is good support to defend below. On the upside,
the ES could try for a test of the 1300 area before coming
back down, possibly hard for the first time in months, if
the 1291.75-1292.50 area is not rejected up here.

On Tuesday look to sell early strength that stalls/reverses
from initial resistance in the first 40 minutes at the
latest. If that plays out, and then the first decent
pullback holds near the 1287.00 area, cover and get long for
a continuation of the uptrends. If there is no hint of
holding the 1287 area, then the 1284.00 area could be a
magnet before a bounce occurs. If they get down there, the
market should rally back and not stall/ reverse from the
1287 area to avoid further downside. If that break/hold under
the 1287 area is what happens, then the major support is now
at the 1277-1276 area on the ES.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1290.00
1291.75-1292.50
1294.00
1297.50-1298.50
1301.00-1302.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1287.50-1287.00
1284.50-1283.50
1280.50-1280.00
1277.50-1276.75 Major
1273.00-1272.25

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2323.00
2325.50-2326.50
2330.50
2337.50-2338.50
2342.25-2344.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2317.50-2316.75
2312.50-2312.00
2306.25-2303.75
2298.50-2296.50 Major
2285.00-2283.50


Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

January 13, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 13 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 1/13/2011

A quick update late last night stated that an early rally
would be a short, and also gave the 1279-1278 area on the ES
and the 2298-2296 zone on the NQ being key. The ES dropped
to 1277.75 and NQ to 2298.00 and reversed in the first hour,
then rallied into early afternoon. The move stalled out at
1283.00 and then reversed and drifted to 1276.25 on the ES
and the 2298-2296 zone on the NQ at 3:30 pm. A short
covering rally took the market back to test the highs but
just missed and the futures backed off into the close.

The market got good earnings after the bell and should open
higher on Friday if the CPI and Retail Sales numbers are not
bad. The Michigan Sentiment survey 25 minutes into trading
could be a market mover too. The market hasn't had a decent
pullback of even 10 points on the ES since 1/4 and 1/7 at
the 1258 area. Some good odds shorts set up along the way,
but they don't give much downside before bouncing back. The
melt-up move should last another day, or part of one anyhow.

On Friday there should be follow through buying so if there
is early weakness it sets up a buying opportunity for a
rally back to a new high for the move or higher. If the
market opens higher, a reversal from the 1284.50 area on the
ES should only cause a small pullback of 3-4 points at most
if the move up is going to continue. If there is a drop of 4
ES points or more, then a chance of testing the Thursday
lows would be possible. The 1276 area on the ES, the 2296
area on the NQ and the 11700 level on the Dow cash will all
be defended if the market is going to stay away from trouble
and stay in trend up mode.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1284.00-1284.50 *key
1286.75-1288.00 *major
1291.75-1292.50
1299.00-1301.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1279.00-1278.50
1274.50-1274.00 *key


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2309.50-2311.00 *key
2315.50-2316.25 *major
2322.50-2324.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2300.75-2300.25
2294.00-2292.50 *key

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

January 11, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 11 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 6:36 pm eastern time, 1/11/2011

The ES gapped up on Tuesday, then quickly reversed from
1273.00 and a pullback to 1268.50 followed. That filled the
gap on the daily chart, and then the ES bounced back to
1273.75 and stalled out. A short at 1273.00 didn't take much
heat, then fell fast starting around 1 pm. A bounce off
1268.00 then stalled/reversed from 1271.00 and a drop to a
lower low at the 1265.50 level followed. That was the Monday
close and the market reversed back up around 2 pm and then a
choppy move back to the 1271 area lasted until just before
the close.

The ES tested the high area from last week and the Dow Cash
tested 11700, and the market did not like it up there. Also,
the last 2 hours of upside was labored and formed a rising
wedge pattern. Just before the close the 1271 resistance on
the ES was reversed, putting the market on the defensive.

On Wednesday we get the Fed's Beige Book release at 2 pm. In
the early going look for early strength to be a gift on the
short side, especially if there is a pop over the 1271 level
on the ES that reverses back down. Then, if the first
pullback can be reversed from the 1265.00-1264.50 low area
from Tuesday, a snap back rally can occur. If that 1264.50
area is broken, then odds are good that a top of some sort
is in place and another test of the key 1258 area could be
in the cards.

NOTE: There will not be an update on Wednesday night due to
prior commitment.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1271.00-1271.50
1274.00-1274.50
1278.00-1278.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1268.50
1265.00-1264.50
1262.00-1261.50
1258.00-1257.50
1252.25-1251.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2287.50-2288.00
2294.00-2294.50
2302.75-2303.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2284.00
2280.50-2280.00
2274.50-2273.50
2264.25-2263.25
2253.00-2251.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

January 10, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 10 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 1/10/2011

The ES opened lower on Monday, then bounced from 1260.00 to
1264.25 and reversed back down. That lead to a test of the
key 1258.00 level and buying came in. After moving up to
1265.00, there was a drop to 1259.75 but the bears couldn't
keep the market down and the break and hold of the 1262.50-
1262.00 zone opened the door for a rally to just under the
1268.50-1269.00 initial resistance with 30 minutes left.
That marked the tops as the market was sold into the close.

While the Nasdaq futures pushed to new 52 week highs on
Monday, the ES took all day to get back to unchanged and
then faded into the close. The ES is around the middle of
its range, while the NQ is getting stretched on the upside.

On last Friday and on Monday the ES failed to clear the
1268.50-1269.00 zone, and that is key on the upside on
Monday. On the downside, as long as the initial support
areas are held, there will be a chance to test that again on
Tuesday. However, if broken the initial support is broken,
then by now the 1258 support is on everyone's charts, and a
4th test will not have as good of odds of holding. If it is
held, then no damage is done just yet. Just don't expect a
whole lot more upside from here. If broken, it could confirm
a top.

On Tuesday look for early weakness to be bought IF the
initial support is held/reversed, and then if the market can
bounce again, the move needs to get over the initial
resistance zones and not quickly reverse. If the 1268.50-
1269.00 area is not rejected a third time, then a run up to
the 1272 area that stalls/ reverses is a shorting
opportunity. If a pullback doesn't hold the 1265.00-1264.50
area on the ES and 2280.50-2280.00 area on the NQ, then that
retest of the 1258 area on the ES is likely one more time,
and would need to reverse back up over 1260 quickly to avoid
heading towards the 1252.25-1251.50 zone.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1268.50-1269.00
1274.00-1274.50
1278.00-1278.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1265.00-1264.50
1262.00-1261.50
1258.00-1257.50
1252.25-1251.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2286.25-2287.50
2296.50-2298.25
2302.75-2303.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2280.50-2280.00
2274.50-2273.50
2264.25-2263.25
2253.00-2251.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

January 09, 2011

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 9 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 1/9/2011

The ES popped up to 1274.00 on the open on Friday, and that
early strength was sold and the ES dropped to 1267.75 (just
over the 1267.25-1266.25 initial support), and then a quick
bounce back to the 1272.75 initial resistance occurred. The
1272.00-1272.50 zone on the ES and the 2281.25-2282.50 zone
on the NQ were both reversed, and a trend down move to the
1258.50-1258.00 support zone on the ES and the 2252.75-
2251.50 support zone on the NQ lasted until just before 1
pm. That was a 15 point move on the ES and a 29.25 point
move on the NQ, and then the market reversed. The 1262 level
was broken and held and the ES rallied back to the 1268.50
pivotal level just before the close.

The market is getting more volatile, which is a good change.
The first week of the year is in the books, and we have a
toppy acting market currently, or range bound at best. Last
week the ES failed to hold over the 1272 level for very
long, and also failed to stay under 1259 for very long
either.

The internals have not kept up with price, and now my
intermediate term internal gauges are beginning to roll
over. The very short term internal gauges are close to
getting oversold. In any case, it would take good follow
through buying that gets both the ES and NQ over their
initial resistance areas, and then holds them on a pullback,
for the market to avoid another drop. That would be a change
of character from last week's action, as the bounces have
not been able to stick. If we do get another drop, the
1258.50-1257.50 zone on the ES and the 2252.75-2251.50 zone
on the NQ will need to be defended for a third time,
otherwise there is a short to intermediate term top forming.

Look for early strength to be sold, and then if the first
decent pullback shows signs of turning back up from the
1264.50-1264.00 zone on the ES and/ or the 2265.50-2264.50
area on the NQ, a snap back rally is possible. If broken,
then the 1258.50-1257.50 zone on the ES and the 2252.75-
2251.50 zone on the NQ will need to hold or things will be
changing.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1268.50-1269.00
1274.00-1274.50
1278.00-1278.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1267.00-1266.50
1264.50-1264.00
1262.00
1258.00-1257.50
1252.25-1251.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2276.00-2277.00
2281.50-2282.00
2288.25-2289.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2272.50-2271.75
2265.50-2264.50
2260.50
2253.00-2251.50
2243.00-2241.50


Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

January 06, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 6 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:46 pm eastern time, 1/6/2011

The market didn't sit still intraday on Thursday. A pop up
to 1273.75 on the ES was sold on the open on Thursday (1
tick over 1273.00-1273.50 initial resistance) but the first
pullback held at 1270.75 (initial support) and another push
higher to 1274.50 followed. However, the breakout failed and
that set up a short and then when 1270 was broken the
downside gathered steam and a drop to 1266.25 occurred. That
was an 8.25 point move and we caught a part of it. A channel
formed between 1267.25 and 1270.25, and the breakout ran
another 2 points higher to 1272.25 before reversing. A drop
back to that 1267.25 followed, and able to hold again, a pop
back to the 1270.50 level followed. A quick drop to 1266.50
was quickly reversed with about 30 minutes left in stock
trading the ES rallied back to 1271.25 just before the
close.

We get the Employment data before the open on Friday. The
market has not been able to hold gains, yet refuses to break
too. Right now it will take a break under the 1266 area and
not quickly reversed again to make a topping pattern. Unless
/ until that occurs, no reversal yet. Still, don't expect a
lot more upside before selling comes back in.

So, look for early strength to be sold in the first 40
minutes of trading on Friday. If that plays out and the
initial support holds, then another snap back rally is still
possible. If it's not defended then a move to 1263 area
would be key end of week.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1271.50-1272.50
1275.50-1276.00
1278.00-1278.50
1282.50-1284.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1267.25-1266.25
1263.75-1262.75
1258.50-1258.00
1252.50-1251.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2277.75-2278.50
2282.75-2284.50
2288.25-2288.75
2294.00-2296.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2270.75-2269.75
2263.00-2262.00
2252.75-2251.50
2243.00-2241.50


Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

January 05, 2011

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 5 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:06 pm eastern time, 1/5/2011

The market opened lower on Wednesday, but quickly turned
back up and held over the initial support zones on a
pullback and the market stair stepped higher in trend up
mode to 1273.00 on the ES by 12:45 pm eastern time. The 1270
level was able to hold on a pullback, and then the ES
churned between 1273.75 and 1270.25 going into the close.

The market continues to be amazingly resilient, as the
market held a good bid on dips all day on Wednesday. The
daily indicators are not yet overbought and sentiment has
not reached an extreme just yet. That 1270 area now needs to
be defended to avoid a reversal pattern and trigger a bit
more selling. Otherwise, the bulls remain in control and the
upside can continue for part of another day or maybe two
before we get a reversal up here.

On Thursday we get the Jobless Claims before the open. If
the market opens higher, that should set up a shorting
opportunity for a test of the 1270 area. If that area is
broken, and then the ES cannot reverse back from around the
1268.50-1268.00 area, then it should mean there is a selloff
coming that could get the ES down to the 1263.75-1262.75
zone on the ES. If that area is reached, and the move stalls
or reverses back up, then a decent bounce back towards the
1270 area would then be possible.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1273.00-1273.50
1275.50-1276.50
1278.00-1278.50 *next key areas


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1270.50-1270.00
1268.75-1268.25
1263.75-1262.75
1258.50-1258.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2271.50-2272.50
2276.50-2278.00
2281.25-2282.50 *next key areas


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2268.50-2267.50
2263.00-2262.00
2252.75-2251.50
2243.00-2241.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

January 04, 2011

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

1 / 4 / 2011

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 7:09 pm eastern time, 1/4/2011

I don't often toot my own horn, but in Monday night's update
I stated that:

"The ES was unable to hold over 1270 and now a test of
the Monday highs will set up a very good shorting
opportunity."

and

"...that first decent bounce should set up a shorting
opportunity then when the upside stalls out. That will
be the case as long as the 1270 area is not exceeded
and held, instead of reversing as it should if the
market is going into pullback mode."

It was also noted about the 1258.50-1258.00 zone:

"...the big open left a gap on the daily, weekly,
monthly, and yearly charts so far. Odds are pretty good
that we revisit that area on a pullback fairly soon."

The ES popped up to 1270.00 on the open and turned back down
and that was what we were looking for, and an 11.75 point
trend down move to 1258.25 on the ES (the 1259.00-1258.00
support was our cover zone via audio) and a 25.50 point drop
to 2236.50 on the NQ occurred shortly before 1pm eastern
time. From there the market went trend up and reached the
1266.00 target/ resistance zone before 3:30pm. The pullback
held new support at 1263.00-1262.25 and snapped back into
the close.

The ES had good moves both ways and by holding at the
1258.50-1258.00 zone the market averted a bad day. The way
the market is acting, we could form a new trading range with
good resistance around Monday's highs and good support
around the Tuesday lows. The Nasdaq, which lead the way up,
looks to be top heavy though and should keep the pressure on
if it can not get through the initial resistance zone on
Wednesday.

The weight of the evidence favors more two-sided action
ahead, and possibly a drop to/through Tuesday's lows. That
would be the case if the initial support around the 1262.72-
1262.25 area on the ES and 2244.50-2243.50 area on the NQ is
not defended on Wednesday. So. if there is a higher open, it
should offer another good shorting opportunity for a
pullback to the initial support areas, at least. If those
support zones are not held, then bounces should fail to
break/ hold over the 1266.00-1266.50 zone on the ES and also
the 2252.00-2252.50 zone on the Nasdaq 100 futures. Those
areas will be shorting areas if that support is broken and
the market bounces back. If the 1258 area on the ES is
tested again, then another turn around would need to happen
pretty fast, otherwise the move will turn into more than
just a pullback in an uptrend. On the other side of the
coin, if there is further strength and the 1270 area is
tested again, then beware that the 1268.50-1268.00 area
would then need to hold or a reversal will have occurred and
start a good sized drop.

NOTE: There will be no intraday updates on Wednesday after
noon due to an appointment. Hopefully the nightly update
will not be effected.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1266.00-1266.50
1269.50-1270.25 strong
1272.50-1273.00 key, sell zone
1275.50-1276.50 major


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1262.72-1262.25 key
1258.50-1258.00 strong
1255.25-1254.75
1252.00-1251.25 major


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2252.00-2252.50
2261.50-2262.00 strong
2266.00-2267.00 key, sell zone
2272.00-2273.00 major


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2244.50-2243.50 key
2237.00-2236.00 strong
2230.75-2229.50
2225.50-2224.50 major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

January 03, 2011

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 3 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:46 pm eastern time, 1/3/2011

The ES gapped up almost 6 points over the Friday high and
kept going in trend up mode until around 11:40am. The ES
made it to updated resistance at 1272.50 and then the ES
stalled and churned between 1271.25 and 1269.75 new support
going into the afternoon. After the 1269.75 level broke it
turned into resistance and the ES backed off to 1264.50, a
level seen in the first 15 minutes of trading, just before
settlement.

The ES was unable to hold over 1270 and now a test of the
Monday highs will set up a very good shorting opportunity.
The market broke its range on a closing basis, but the big
open left a gap on the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly
charts so far. Odds are pretty good that we revisit that
area on a pullback fairly soon.

We get the FOMC Minutes at 2pm on Tuesday. If nothing else
it should help keep the market somewhat volatile. The
futures settled under fair value so a modestly lower open is
priced in. If the market does open lower, it should give a
snap back rally of 3-4 points on the ES, and that first
decent bounce should set up a shorting opportunity then when
the upside stalls out. That will be the case as long as the
1270 area is not exceeded and held, instead of reversing as
it should if the market is going into pullback mode.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1269.25-1269.75
1272.50-1273.00
1275.50-1276.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1263.25-1262.75
1258.50-1258.00
1255.25-1254.75
1252.00-1251.25 Bookmark


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2255.00-2256.00
2260.50-2261.00
2266.00-2267.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2247.75-2246.75
2237.50-2236.50
2230.75-2229.50
2225.50-2224.50 Bookmark

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

January 02, 2011

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              1 / 2 / 2011

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 1/2/2011

The volatility picked up a bit late last week, but the
market is still spinning its wheels up here. The SP500 cash
has closed in a 3 point range between 1256.77 and 1259.78
for 7 straight days. The rallies have not been able to stick
until Friday. Lately the market has rallied early, then gets
sold off. After getting to the bottom of the range, shorts
get uncomfortable while bulls buy them back and reflex
rallies follow. However, as soon as the run up stalls,
shorts get positioned as buyers pull bids and then the
market closes with a drop to end the day. That is toppy
action, and what we got all of last week except for the last
20 minutes for futures trading on Friday.

Still, the market has refused to break down too. That's what
makes a range. A move out of this "comfort zone" should
occur soon. If there is yet another failure to break/ hold
over the 1258.00-1258.50 zone on the ES, and/or we get a
close under that 7 day range, then the market will be
changing on the short to intermediate term. Otherwise, as
long as the 1255.25-1254.75 area is held, break out higher
(that is not quickly reversed) could get the ES towards the
1262.25-1264.00 area before a pullback occurs.

On Monday we get the ISM manufacturing index 30 minutes into
trading. This has been a market mover lately, and could be
something to move the market out of this range. If there is
a pop up and the ES reverses from the 1258.50 area, or gets
over that but then quickly turns back down, then that would
set up a good reward/ risk shorting opportunity. On the
other side of the coin, the ES broke 1255 area late Friday,
and if that is held on an early dip, then the market is
still in uptrends and can try to take out the 1258.50 area.
If that isn't held, then beware that the ES bounced from the
1249.50 area twice last week. If the that area is tested
early on Monday, but gets footing and reverses back up, then
the bottom side of the range holds again and a decent snap
back bounce could occur.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1258.00-1258.50 key
1262.25-1264.00
1267.75-1268.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1255.25-1254.75 key
1252.00-1251.25
1248.75-1248.25 major
1244.75-1244.25


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2225.50-2226.50 key
2234.50-2235.50
2242.00-1243.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2217.00-2216.00 key
2212.50-2211.50
2207.50-2206.50 major
2201.50-2200.25

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

December 29, 2010

.................................................
TradeStalker's


Support and Resistance Update


12 / 29 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................

Dateline: 7:03 pm eastern time, 12/29/2010

A gap up open was sold on Wednesday, starting a 1.50 point
drop on the ES from 1257.00 to 1255.50 to fill the gap on
the daily chart. A bounce to the top side of the 1257.50-
1258.50 major zone was tested 3 times in the afternoon, and
unable to clear major resistance at the 1258.50 high (where
we got swing trade short), the market rolled over and the
futures made their lows in the final minutes of trading.

We get Initial Claims before the open on Thursday, and the
Chicago PMI 15 minutes into the trading day. Then, at 10am,
we get the Pending Home Sales number. The market has been
making new 52 highs commonplace lately, but if the
indicators are right, the market might have made a short
term top on Wednesday. It will take a break and hold over
the 1258.50 level on the ES, and the NQ would also need to
break and hold over its 2235.50 resistance area, otherwise
the market will be vulnerable. Being the last day of the
year, the action could be a bit odd, but unusual action is
something often seen before a top.

On Thursday, as long as the initial support holds early
(meaning no follow through selling) then there is still a
chance for 1 last pop up, but a bounce should be used to get
into a swing trade on the short side. As stated, a move over
the 1258.50 resistance (posted on the resistance table for a
week or more) will be needed to nullify this. If I'm wrong
and 1258.50 and also 2235.50 on the NQ are exceeded, and
held on a dip (not quickly reversed) then a move towards the
1262.25-1264.00 area is possible and there would be an
outside shot of seeing the 1272-1275 area, but lets see how
the market handles that 1258.50 area first.

Lastly, Thursday is last trading day of the month and year.
We want to take this opportunity to wish you and yours all
safe and Happy New Year! We'll be back Sunday night with the
first update of 2011, my 15th year of writing these updates.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1
1257.50-1258.50 major
1262.25-1264.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1
1255.00
1253.75-1253.00
1249.75-1248.75 strong
1244.75-1244.25 major

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1
2234.50-2235.50 major
2239.75-2242.50

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1
2228.50
2225.50-2224.25
2218.50-2217.75 strong
2208.50-2207.25 major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 

December 28, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 28 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:14 pm eastern time, 12/28/2010

A gap up open was sold on Tuesday, starting a 4.50 point
drop from 1256.00 to 1251.50 on the ES in the first hour of
trading. The market got it's footing and turned up, but it
took a break/ hold over 1253 to keep the upside going. That
happened shortly after 1pm and the ES went to 1255.50 to
double top before pulling back into the close.  

The ES was able to bounce back on Tuesday, but the NQ topped
on the open and never made it back. With the rejection of
that resistance, again, the market is staring to lose
momentum and looks to be topping out, or is range bound at
best. In any case, the market looks to be vulnerable unless
the 1256 level is blown through without reversing back down.

On the downside, the initial support was resistance turned
support intraday on Tuesday. A move back under that support
should mean a top of some sort is in place and lower prices
are ahead. The 1249.75-1248.75 on the ES and 2218.50-2217.75
zone on the NQ both are key support areas that should be
held if the market is going to avoid trouble short term.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1255.50-1256.00
1257.50-1258.50  major
1262.25-1264.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1253.75-1253.00
1251.50
1249.75-1248.75 strong
1244.75-1244.25 major


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2228.50-2229.25
2233.50-2234.50
2237.75-2238.50 major


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2225.50-2224.25
2221.25
2218.50-2217.75
2208.50-2207.25


Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

 

December 27, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 27 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:54 pm eastern time, 12/27/2010

The market gapped down on the open on Monday and while the
ES bounced the NQ continued going lower until about 40
minutes into trading. The ES bounced from 1247.00 to 1251.00
then found support at 1249.75 for nearly an hour. The break
over 1251 kept the trend-up move in gear to the 1253.50-
1254.00 initial fixed resistance. The ES reached 1253.75 but
the dips were small and 1252.75 turned into new trend up
support and it kept the market in rally mode until selling
started with 15 minutes left. From the 1254.25 level on the
ES and 2232.50-2333.50 zone on the NQ, the market pulled
back a bit into the close.

We get the Consumer Confidence release 30 minutes into
trading on Tuesday. It was a trend up day on Monday, but
again buyers backed off after reaching the 1254 level on the
ES and 2234 level on the NQ. Those are the resistance levels
that need to be cleared/ held to break out of the top of the
ranges and possibly get the ES to the 1257.50-1258.50 zone
(or higher if melt-up not reversed).

In order to get through those initial resistance areas, the
initial support at the 1252.75-1252.25 area on the ES needs
to be defended. If it is not held, then the trends will
reverse and a decent pullback should occur. If that is the
case, then a drop towards the 1249.75-1248.75 zone on the ES
(and also the 2220.50-2218.75 zone on the NQ) would be next.
A reversal back up from those areas would need to happen
fast if they are tested, otherwise a break down could be in
the works and confirm a double top. Finally, if there is a
drop into the last hour of trading on Tuesday, beware of a
reversal back up and especially if the NYSE Advancing issues
minus Declining issues is greater than +300. If the breadth
is negative at that time then a bounce won't stick.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1254.25-1255.00
1257.50-1258.50  major
1262.25-1264.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1252.75-1252.25 key
1249.75-1248.75 strong
1244.75-1244.25 major


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2233.50-2234.50
2237.75-2238.50 major
2244.25-1246.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2229.00-2228.50 key
2220.50-2218.75 strong
2214.00-2213.25 major

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

 

December 26, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 26 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:34 pm eastern time, 12/26/2010

The market rallied again last week, making new 52 week highs
each day until a pullback on Thursday. The move was a boring
grind higher on light volume, and there was a series of
narrow range days. On Monday through Thursday the ES had
ranges of 9.50, 6.00, 4.50, and 5.00 points, respectively.
It has been a non-volatile move up, with the largest
pullback over the last 3 days being the 4.50 point pullback
on Thursday afternoon. No doubt, this was partially due to
it being a holiday week, but the low volatility is normally
a sign of losing momentum and often seen near market tops.

The sentiment picture is getting more extreme. The Investors
Intelligence data has the number of bullish advisory
services at a level seen about a month before the 2007 top.
The SP500/Vix ratio reached 81.5 on Wednesday. The last time
this ratio was in the 80's was May 15th, 2008. The SP500
cash topped on closing basis 2 trading days later, then
dropped 50 SP500 points in 4 days, and 210 SP500 points in
about 2 months to a July 15 temporary low.

That said, the market is coming into the most bullish period
of a month, normally the last 2 days of the month an first
day of a new month. If the upside is going to continue, then
the 1249.50-1248.50 zone on the ES and the 2225.00-2223.50
zone on the NQ need to hold on a pullback. On the upside, a
move to the 1257.50-1258.50 zone on the ES should be
rejected if the market is topping out. To start a topping
process and/ or turn the trend, we need a close below the
low of the high day, which is at the 1250.50 level on
Monday.  

On Monday, look for early strength to be reversed in the
first 40 minutes of trading, at the latest. If that occurs,
then the first decent pullback needs to stay over the
1250.75 area on the ES, or quickly reverse if broken,
otherwise things will likely be changing short term and the
bounces then should be sold. If that is held on a dip, then
the market can still try to push higher. If that happens,
trail a tight stop on any longs and beware that bounces
likely won't be able to stick over the 1258 area on the ES.
However, if that area is not a problem, then a push over
1260 is not impossible but shouldn't hold on the first trip
over that level.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1253.50-1254.00
1257.75-1258.50 major
1262.25-1264.00

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1250.75
1249.50-1248.50 key
1244.75-1244.25
1240.00-1239.25
1236.25-1235.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2232.50-2333.50
2237.75-2238.50 major
2244.25-1246.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2227.00
2225.00-2223.50 key
2218.25-2217.75
2212.50-2211.50
2205.50-2204.50


Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

December 21, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 21 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:59 pm eastern time, 12/21/2010

The ES gapped up again on Tuesday and had trouble getting
through the 1247.50-1248.50 zone initially, but after
breaking/ holding over that zone the ES stayed in trend up
mode into the last 30 minutes. After finally getting through
the 1250 level, the ES reached 1251.25 and then dipped to
1249.50 before bouncing into settlement.

The market continues its melt-up mode but there will soon be
a sizable pullback. As long as the 1249.50-1248.75 zone on
the ES is defended, the trends will stay up and the market
can try to move towards the 1252.00-1252.75 area, or
possibly a bit higher on the ES. However, if that zone is
broken, then it opens the door for a deeper drop and
possibly a short to intermediate term top.

There is a batch of economic data released before the open
on Wednesday. Then 30 minutes into trading we get the
Existing Home Sales data. So, if an early dip holds the
1249.50-1248.75 initial support and turns back up, then
there should be a bounce back to the 1252 area on the ES
before a pullback/ selloff begins. If the ES is strong
enough to blow through 1252 and hold, then a last gasp run
towards the 1257.75-1258.50 zone is possible. If that IS
reached this week, be on reversal alert for a very good odds
short. On a pullback, if that 1249.50-1248.75 support zone
is not defended, then the upside pace will be broken and the
bounces should then have trouble holding any gains.


     NOTE: This will be the last nightly update, as we will
     be taking Thursday off. Everyone have a great Holiday!
     The next nightly update will be sent on Sunday night.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1252.00-1252.75
1254.50-1255.00
1257.75-1258.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1249.50-1248.75
1245.75-1245.25
1240.00-1239.25
1236.25-1235.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2238.50-2239.25
2244.00-2244.75
2250.50-2250.25


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2232.00-2231.50
2225.00-2224.25
2216.50-2215.50
2205.50-2204.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

December 20, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 20 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:26 pm eastern time, 12/20/2010

The ES gapped up to the 1243.00-1243.50 resistance on
Monday's open (1243.50 early high) and when the 1241.75
level broke the downside was trend down 7 ES points to
1236.25 by 11:15 am. The NQ made a double bottom at that time
and then a rally started. A test of 1242 gave just a small
dip and then after 1242 was cleared it turned into support
for a move to 1245.75. A small double top at that level was
reversed and a drop to 1242.25 support followed. A bounce to
the updated 1243.75-1244.25 zone was sold and the ES dropped
to 1241.00 just before settlement.

The past several days the market has sold off early, only to
come back and close at new highs for the year. On Monday we
had it both ways again, with the gap up open being sold and
then the first good sized drop was bought. This time
however, the market found a high in the 2:30-2:40 pm time-
frame and sold off into the close. The market doesn't like
it in new high territory the first time around. If there is
another run up to test/ exceed the Monday highs, it should
only set up another good odds shorting opportunity when the
move stalls out.

On Tuesday we could get a bit more of the same action. If
the initial support is held, and reversed, then a pop up to
test the initial resistance areas is possible. If the market
is weak then the initial resistance areas will be rejected,
if reached at all. However, if the market is strong enough
to get back over the initial resistance areas, and then
holds over the 1243 area on the ES on a dip, then the trends
turn up and it would be possible for a move towards the
1247.50-1248.50 zone before a turn back down. If that area
is seen, and the move stalls or shows rejection of that
zone, then it should set up a good reward/ risk opportunity
on the short side.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1243.75-1244.25
1245.75-1246.25
1247.50-1248.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1240.00-1239.25
1236.25-1235.50
1232.00-1231.50
1227.50-1226.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2226.50-2227.25
2230.00-2231.00
2238.25-2239.25


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2216.50-2215.50
2205.50-2204.50
2199.50-2198.50
2192.75-2192.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

December 19, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 19 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:36 pm eastern time, 12/19/2010

We had a volatile week while in a pretty small range. The ES
double topped at the 1242.00 level on Monday and Tuesday,
but the moves didn't stick on either day. On Thursday
morning the ES dropped to the 1227.50 key support area and
turned back up, and the rally back took the market averages
back to key areas by Friday afternoon. The 1241.00 level on
the ES turned into a lid overhead, and once the ES broke
1239.75 the symmetry broke and the market pulled back into
the close.

My sentiment gauges are at extremes not often seen. The Vix
closed at 16.11 on Friday. This could be partially due to
expectations of a quiet holiday week ahead. It's not the raw
number that's meaningful, but pretty good when used right.
The SP500/Vix ratio reached 77.21, and is more than 15%
above its 25 day average. That is stretched, and should soon
revert to the mean. Also, the last time that ratio was above
77 was April 14th, 2010 and after a few days of pullback,
the market rallied to a slightly higher high and then fell
more than 200 points on the SP500 to the July low. In
addition to that, the 10 day put/call ratio is at its lowest
level since the April top. Along with the overly bullish
crowd, the small ranges are getting old. Small range days
tend to occur near tops, and bottoms occur when volatility
is high.

The market reached a short term oversold condition on
Wednesday and now most gauges are neutral. The market is
range bound currently, and the 1227.50 low on the ES made
last week is a major area to hold. The top of the ranges,
and the 11500 level on the Dow cash were rejected on Friday.
This is a short holiday week, but unless those zones are
cleared soon, the market is vulnerable. However, even if
they are cleared and the move goes another 10 points or so
higher on the SP500, the way things are looking, it won't be
too long before a good sized correction sets in.

On Friday the 1235 support was broken by half of a point and
the market rallied back. The day didn't end well though, and
the Nasdaq futures led the way lower, making a new low for
the day in the final few minutes. So, look for shorting
opportunities if there is a bounce to test the initial
resistance and the move stalls or reverses. Only a move over
those zones that holds gets the market into a last gasp
rally mode. Otherwise, the market is still vulnerable and
that 1227.50 area is a major support that must be reversed
again to avoid a bigger correction.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1240.25-1241.00  *11500 Dow CASH*
1143.00-1243.50
1247.00-1247.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1238.00-1237.50
1235.00-1234.50
1232.00-1231.50
1227.50-1226.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2220.00-2220.50
2226.25-2227.25
2238.25-2239.25


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2212.50-2211.50
2208.50-2207.00
2199.50-2198.50
2192.75-2192.00


Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

December 16, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 16 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:45 pm eastern time, 12/16/2010

The ES popped up to 1233.75 in the first 10 minutes and then
reversed and plunged to 1227.50 (the 1227.25-1226.50 major
support) about 35 minutes into the day. A reversal off of
that area was sold at first, but the 1229.00 level turned
into good support (and nice exit of a swing trade) and a run
to 1237.00 followed. The updated support at 1235.50-1235.00
held and a double top was was made at 1239.25 (in the
1238.50-1239.50 resistance zone) before rolling over. The
1235.50 support held with about 30 minutes left and the ES
ran up to 1239.75 just before the close.

This is an amazingly resilient market, and we could continue
to move higher (or at least stay range-bound) if the last
hour lows on Thursday are defended on a pullback. The ES
reached the major 1227.25-1226.50 zone, but reversed very
fast as it spent very little time under 1229 level. The
1238.50-1239.50 area gave a double top intraday on Thursday,
but the pullback held what should now be a key support area
at 1235.50-1235.00 on the ES.

On Friday look for early strength to be sold, especially if
the 1239.75 area is tested and rejected. If the market
obliges and gives a decent pullback to test the 1235.50-
1235.00 zone, then beware of a turn back up. As long as that
area holds, then the market avoids trouble. However, if that
area is broken, then any bounces thereafter should then set
up shorting opportunity when the move stalls out. The
Thursday low at the 1227.50 support zone should be a good
short term low. However, if that is somehow broken then the
charts will look ugly and it could mean the start of more
than a 2 and a half day pullback.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1239.25-1239.75  key
1142.50-1243.00  major
1247.00-1247.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1238.00
1235.50-1235.00
1232.00-1231.50
1227.50-1226.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2224.00-2224.75 key
2229.25-2230.25 major
2238.25-2239.25


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2217.50
2215.50-2215.00
2209.25-2208.50
2198.00-2196.00


Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

 

December 15, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 15 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:16 pm eastern time, 12/15/2010

The lower open was reversed back up from 1233.75 (1233.50-
1232.50 initial support) and the ES bounced to 1139.50
(1238.50-1239.50 initial resistance) before stalling out. A
small dip then a pop to 1239.25 reversed, setting up a 1-2-3
top and the ES fell to 1235.75 and churned a bit. The
1237.00 level was reached, and unable to clear that, we re-
entered shorts and a drop to 1232.00 followed. A move back
to 1235.25 (1235.00-1235.50 updated resistance) on the ES
and 11500 on the Dow failed, building another rising wedge
in the process. That set up another short and the market
obliged and dropped 6.50 ES points to 1228.75 by 3pm. The
1232.50-1232.00 area was resistance turned support after
1234.00 was reached, and a dip to 1232.50 set up a trade on
the long side and a move to 1234.75 (just under our 1235.00-
1235.50 resistance) before dropping back to 1230.00 just
before the close.

The market acts like it might want to snap back a bit on
Thursday, but if it does the move will likely be sold once
again. For 3 days in a row, the ES either couldn't hold or
rejected the 1240 level. If there is a bounce, the 1235 area
will need to be exceeded and held, not quickly reverse.
Otherwise, the market remains vulnerable and a drop to test/
break the Wednesday lows should be in the cards before an
attempt to move higher.

The futures ended the day well above fair value, so a higher
open for stocks is priced in. If the market opens lower and
can reverse back up in the first 40 minutes at the latest, a
decent bounce can occur. However, don't expect the move to
stick unless the 1235 area is cleared, and can hold on a
pullback. If that doesn't happen, then there should be one
more push lower towards the 1227.25-1226.50 key zone, which
the bulls need to defend by reversing back the move back up
quickly. If that doesn't happen, then the market has
problems and it's possible for the ES to fall another 10
points before getting turned back around.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1234.75-1235.25
1238.50-1239.50
1242.25-1242.50


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1231.50 - 2201.00
1229.50-1229.00
1227.25-1226.50
1224.25-1223.75


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2207.50-2208.00
2214.50-2215.25
2222.50-2223.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2196.75-2196.00
2193.50-2192.50
2188.00-2187.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed




 

 

December 14, 2010

 .................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 14 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:56 pm eastern time, 12/14/2010

The ES popped up to 1239.00 (1238.75-1239.50 initial
resistance) resistance on the open, and then dropped 2.75
points to 1236.25 (Monday's close) and then turned up. A
rally to 1240.75 followed, then after a drop held the 1238
updated support, a stair step trend-up to 1241.50 lasted
into the Fed release. After the release, a drop then a pop
to 1242.25 resistance was rejected, and a drop to 1237.00
followed. A feeble bounce to 1239.75 stalled out, allowing a
good shorting opportunity for a drop to the 1234.00-1233.25
zone on day trades. The ES reached 1232.75 with 20 minutes
left in stock trading, and then bounced to 1237.50 by the
close.

The ES failed at 1242 on Monday and Tuesday and has turned
into a key resistance. The market is still range bound, but
the crowd is extremely bullish. The 10 day put/ call ratio
reached .47 and is at its lowest level in many months. It's
also 2 standard deviations from the yearly average. The Vix
is also showing complacency. The crowd is usually wrong at
highs/ lows and these are red flags.  

The averages made new yearly highs on Tuesday, but the
internal gauges are not in very good shape either. The ES
has found the initial resistance zones as pivotal lately.
They should be hard to break and hold. If they do, then the
ES sure hasn't held over 1241 very long, so if that level is
exceeded and then broken back to the downside, then it
should set up a very good shorting opportunity.

That said, with a poor technical backdrop along with overly
bullish crowd (and a market having trouble holding gains)
there should be more to go on the downside on Wednesday. If
there is early strength, it should set up a very good
reward/ risk opportunity on the short side if the initial
resistance is reached. On the downside, if the 1233.50-
1232.50 zone on the ES is tested, and then reversed back up,
a decent bounce could occur. If that happens, then a bounce
back of around 4-5 points on the ES should fail if the
market is going to work its way lower and head towards the
1230.50-1230.00 zone, and possibly fall towards the 1227.25-
1226.50 area where there should be key support. If that zone
is not reversed, then a top of some sort will be confirmed
short term, and the downside could gather momentum. If that
zone is reversed, then a good rally could still occur.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1238.50-1239.50
1242.25-1242.50
1244.50-1245.00
1247.25-1248.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1233.50-1232.50
1230.50-1230.00
1227.25-1226.50
1224.25-1223.75


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2216.50-2217.00
2200.00-2220.50
12224.25-2225.50
2237.50-2238.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2205.00-2204.25
2198.75-2197.75
2193.50-2192.50
2189.00-2188.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


 

December 13, 2010

.................................................

TradeStalker's

Support and Resistance Update

12 / 13 / 2010

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................

Dateline: 5:46 pm eastern time, 12/13/2010

The ES gapped up to 1240.50 on the open on Monday, and that
early strength was sold and the ES dropped to 1236.50, just
missing a gap fill by 1 tick, then turned back up. The ES
bounced to 1241.50 and then pulled back and went sideways
for a few hours. A pop to 1242.00, right at the 1241.75-
1242.50 resistance, gave a double top (and good short entry)
and the break of 1240.50 then pushed the market down to new
lows for the day, with the ES reaching 1235.25 before the
close.

We get PPI and Retail Sales before the open on Tuesday, and
a Fed Rate Decision at 2 pm. the Vix dropped under 17 on
Monday and turned up, and that sentiment shift gave 2 sell
signals. The market was under distribution almost all the
way up to the 1242 double top on Monday, and finally let go
at the end of the day. That 1242.00-1242.75 zone on the ES
area should be hard to break and hold if reached again.

On Fed days, a trend move into the release tends to be
reversed, so if that happens beware. The market ended the
day in downtrends, so if there is early weakness it should
set up a snap back rally. If that occurs, don't expect it to
stick. If the initial resistance is not rejected, but
instead is cleared and the 1242.00-1242.75 zone on the ES
and/or 2220.00-2220.50 area on the NQ is tested again, it
should be sold. If the market pushes through those areas,
then a last gasp run up towards the 1247.25-1248.00 would be
possible.

On the downside, if the initial support is tested and not
quickly reversed, the 1230.50-1230.00 area should be a make/
break area. If we can hold that area, then a bounce of at
least 5 points on the ES should occur, otherwise a decent
sized pullback/ correction would be underway.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1238.75-1239.50
1242.00-1242.75
1244.50-1245.00
1247.25-1248.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1234.00-1233.25
1230.50-1230.00
1227.25-1226.50
1224.25-1223.75


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2216.50-2217.25
2220.00-2220.50
2224.25-2225.50
2237.50-2238.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2106.25-2205.50
2198.75-2197.75
2193.50-2192.50
2189.00-2188.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed

 

 

December 12, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 12 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 5:35 pm eastern time, 12/12/2010

A higher open on Friday and the ES peaked at 1232.00 and
then fell to 1227.25 and snapped back up to 1231.00. The
1229.00 was new support, and that held around noon, and a
trend up move to 1235.25 lasted into the 2:20 pm timeframe.
Another 2 point drop to 1233.25 was quickly reversed and a
test of 1235.25 set up a 1-2-3 top. The drop was just 2
points again and right at 1233.25 and then the market
rallied into the close.

Friday turned out to be a trend up day, so expect a more
two-sided day on Monday. The market still has a good bid
come in on the pullbacks when the downside stalls out. Until
Friday afternoon, the moves wouldn't stick on the upside, so
now the key support is at the 1227.25-1226.50 zone. A break
of that area would dent the bigger trend upside momentum.

On Friday the dips were about 2 points on the ES all day
long. On Monday, if there is early strength and it reverses
in the first 20-40 minutes at the latest, then it should set
up a trade on the short side. If there is a pullback bigger
than 2 points on the ES, or a break of the 1234.00-1233.25
zone on the ES and the 2212.00-2211.50 area on the NQ, then
the intraday trends are rolling over and a move towards the
1230.50-1230.00 area, and possibly the key 1227.25-1226.50
area is in the works. However, as long as a dip is just 2
points or holds over the 1233.25 area, then the rally will
still be in gear.

March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1236.25
1237.75-1238.25 *strong
1241.75-1242.50 *major
1247.25-1248.00


March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1234.00-1233.25
1230.50-1230.00
1227.25-1226.50 *key
1224.25-1223.75 *major
1220.25-1219.75
1217.50-1217.00


March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2216.75
2219.75-2220.50 *strong
2225.75-2226.75 *major
2237.50-2238.50


March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2212.00-2211.50
2207.75-2106.75
2198.75-2197.75 *key
2194.50-2194.00 *major
2189.00-2188.00
2183.00-2182.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed



 

December 9, 2010

.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 9 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................

Dateline: 6:44 pm eastern time, 12/9/2010

The market gapped up almost 6.00 points on the ES on
Thursday and reversed from 1235.00 (just under the 1235.50-
1236.50 zone reached pre-open) and then went trend down
until noon. The ES reached 1226.50 and bounced back, and
then after trading sideways just over the 1228 level, a run
up to 1232.50 updated resistance was reversed. A pullback to
1228.75 held in the market got its footing and popped back
up to 1231.75. There was just a small dip, and then at 3:30
PM a short covering run up to 1234.00 started. A pullback to
1231.50 followed that, and then the futures rallied to test
the 1234.00 level just before the close.  

The indicators are mostly overbought short term, except not
as much as yesterday. The sentiment grew even more
complacent as the Vix dropped to 17.25. The SPX/VIX ratio
reached 71.50, and is above the top bollinger band, which
hasn't happened since the April 23Th top.

That said, the market is still in uptrends, and although the
pullbacks have been holding, the action is a bit toppy also.
If the initial resistance areas are cleared, and not quickly
reversed, it could keep the upside going in a mini melt-up
type of move. Otherwise, the market will stay in a trading
range for now. To break the uptrend, and put the market
under pressure, the 1224.25-1223.75 zone on the March ES
futures would need to be broken, and not quickly reverse
back up.

So, if there is early strength and the 1230.00-1230.50 zone
on the March ES is reached, beware of a reversal there as
the bids have dried up up there, and then pullbacks begin.
Also, the March NQ has good resistance at its 2201.75-
2202.50 zone. If those are cut through, then the 1234.00-
1234.50 area is in the cards on the upside. However, if
those resistance areas are rejected, then a drop to the
initial support at least should be tested. If held, then no
damage is done and another bounce could occur. If the
initial support is not held, then again the 1224.25-1223.75
zone on the March ES futures would need to be defended or
else a good sized drop could occur.

     NOTE: Roll-over to March 2011 futures started today.
     The numbers going forward will be for the March
     contracts.

     Also, there will be no updates after 1pm on Friday due
     to an appointment.


March 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esh1 / big contract =sph1

1230.00-1230.50
1234.00-1234.50
1237.75-1238.25

March 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh1 / big contract =sph1

1226.50
1224.25-1223.75
1220.25-1219.75
1217.50-1217.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2201.75-2202.50
2207.50-2208.50
2212.75-2214.00

March 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh1 / big contract = ndh1

2196.50
2194.50-2194.00
2189.00-2188.00
2183.00-2182.00

Good Trading,
Mike Reed
 

 

 December 8, 2010
.................................................

            TradeStalker's

      Support and Resistance Update

              12 / 8 / 2010

         (Published Since 1996)

 ...............................................


Dateline: 6:06 pm eastern time, 12/8/2010

A higher open was sold on Wednesday after poking just over
the 1227.75-1228.50 zone on the ES about 20 minutes into
trading, and then it was trend down to 1219.00. A rebound to
test the 1228.75 early high failed, and a pullback to
1224.75 was reversed in the last 30 minutes and the market
rallied back to test the high at the close.

The market had a good underlying bid on the dips on
Wednesday, but didn't like it above the 1228 level on the
ES. If that is broken on Thursday morning, then the initial
support areas will need to be defended to stay in a trading
range. As long as the 1224.00 area holds, no damage is done.
However, if it's broken, then a top should be in place and
bounces will be shorting opportunities.

On the other side of the coin, if 1228.00 is held, or
quickly reversed if broken, then a run up to the 1232.50-
1233.50 area is in the cards. If bids dry up, and then 1230
isn't defended on a pullback, a reversal is occurring. If
somehow the 1233.50 area is cut through easily, the 1236.50-
1237.25 area could be seen before the market reverses.

December 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini =  esz0 / big contract =spz0

1230.25
1232.00-1232.50
1235.50-1236.50
1241.75-1242.50

December 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz0 / big contract =spz0

1224.75-1224.00
1220.50-1220.00
1217.00-1216.25
1212.50-1211.75

December 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz0 / big contract = ndz0

2203.50
2210.50-2211.25
2216.50-2217.50
2225.75-2226.75

December 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz0 / big contract = ndz0

2193.75-2192.75
2186.75-2185.75
2181.25-2180.50
2174.00-2172.50

Good Trading,
Mike Reed


This publication's primary focus is trading the index futures ($ES_F) and ($NQ_F). However, you can also use my nightly updates to trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID), (DIA), (VIXY), and (DOG)