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Thursday July 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 29-09:47) mike: 1112.50-1113.00 top

(Jul 29-10:03) mike: 09.50 resist 1876-78 nq is weak

(Jul 29-10:13) mike: The updated resistance was cut through but the ES then reversed from the 1113.00 resistance and reversed in the first 10 minutes. The 1109.50-1110.00 area needs cleared to avoid another drop.

(Jul 29-10:29) mike: 04.00-03.50 a key supp, , then 98.50-97.50 --- 08.50 key resist
(Jul 29-10:33) mike: 03.75 reversed. it must hold or mkt in some trouble.

(Jul 29-10:42) mike: stay w/ shorts to 98.50-97.50 area. bounces not stick still

(Jul 29-10:59) mike: supp held, but careful if long , these bounces are being sold and 08 look like max upside
(Jul 29-11:06) mike: just be short under 07 , nq pushing lower
(Jul 29-11:07) mike: 98.5097.50 still should be tested

(Jul 29-11:13) mike: 10500 on dow cash is support in front of 1098.50-1087.50 on ES. resist at 03.50-04.50 now , max , if going lower

(Jul 29-11:22) mike: target met for swing trades, stay w/ shorts tho on a bounce , 1101 good resist now. 1093 major area below next

(Jul 29-11:25) mike: We got our drop to the 1098.50-1097.50 support/ target but the market is not out of trouble unless the 1101.50-1102.50 area is exceeded and held.

(Jul 29-11:28) mike: stay w/ shorts, if they bounce it will be sold
(Jul 29-11:29) mike: could see 93-92 area which is major area short term if we stay under 11099

(Jul 29-11:34) mike: 1093.50-1092.50 major. watch 1 min chart setup for guide its been perfect all the way down

(Jul 29-11:53) mike: slinky, 95.50 now key resist

(Jul 29-12:14) mike: The trend down move cut through all of the support except for the 1086.50-1085.50 zone on the ES. It will take a move over 1093.50 to get the market out of trouble. If that happens then the 1095.50-1096.50 area could be tested. A bottom could be in if that happens, and a pullback would then be a buying opportunity.

(Jul 29-12:28) mike: 93.50 area failed so far. its was panic-like selling early, now better contained. a decent snap back possible, so careful being too bearish, a test of lows or a higher low that reverses could give a readable bounce

(Jul 29-12:44) mike: to re phrase 1093.50-94.00 needs to break/ hold to get out of trouble. a reversal from 89 a scalp long / i'll stay w/ shorts under 93.50--94.00 for now

(Jul 29-12:56) mike: The ES popped to 1094 and reversed but made a 123 bottom at 1090 so that should be it for the downside. Look for a tradable bounce as long as 1092.00-1091.25 area can hold.

(Jul 29-13:06) mike: 93.50 supp now

(Jul 29-13:14) mike: should see 97.59-
(Jul 29-13:16) mike: 93.50 held, 94.00 dip low , 1 minute setup guide on uptrend , nq especially
(Jul 29-13:19) mike: 97.50-98.50 now resist

(Jul 29-13:34) mike: The move reached the 1097.50-1098.50 old support. That needs cleared/ held in order to tack on a few more points on the upside. The 1094.00-1093.50 area is now a key support.

(Jul 29-13:39) mike: good cluster of resist here. if exceeded they could run up towards 1103

(Jul 29-13:41) mike: 96.50 needs to hold now. audio for awhile

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 29-14:04) mike: audio off. 1096.50 now supp needs to stay over or trends can reverse

(Jul 29-14:28) mike: if 10450 on dow cash holds the mkt is trading range, if 97 holds 1102.50-1103.5 0 resit next

(Jul 29-14:46) mike: pretty close to 110250-1103.59 thats possible reversal area , 1100 must hold

(Jul 29-14:51) mike: 03.50 rejected, a strong move but careful long

(Jul 29-15:01) mike: The pullback held at 1094.75 and the rally made it to the updated 1102.50-1103.50 zone, and those should be highs for the bounce. The 1100 area needs to hold to avoid a pullback now.

There will not be an update tonight, but will update intraday tomorrow.

(Jul 29-15:20) mike: 1102.50 must hold or they will reverse
(Jul 29-15:24) mike: 1102.50 held but 1104 a lid, need to push thru
(Jul 29-15:29) mike: a short w/ tight stop if 1104 reversed

(Jul 29-15:36) mike: mkt can not hold gains around 10500 on dow. if es closes under 1100 its a weak mkt setting up/ have a great rest of the day
 

Wednesday July 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 28-09:22) mike: 1112.50-1113.00 was sold earlier this morn , 1107.50-1107.00 needs to hold

(Jul 28-10:11) mike: The ES opened at the 1108.00-1107.50 initial support and bounced 4 points to 1111.75 before turning back down. The market is not holding on the bounces and only a break/ hold over 1110 on the ES and 1893 on the NQ can keep this from being a decent down day.

(Jul 28-10:24) mike: 1105.00-1104.50 just minor, 98.50-97.50 is key

(Jul 28-11:01) mike: The ES dropped to 1103.50 and bounced back to the 1108 "last trapped" and unless 1108 is exceeded and held a test of the 1098.50-1097.50 zone id still possible. If 1108 is held, then 1113 is still the key resistance today.

(Jul 28-11:07) mike: that ''bounce to last trapped'' was by the book. / see http://www.tradestalker.com/1105/ later to see the setup. / NQ better short today

(Jul 28-11:32) mike: 07.00-08.00 obvious resist, 1882-1884 on nq. a short unless broken

(Jul 28-11:42) mike: scalp out part at 05.50 or better, 79 on nq a better short still

(Jul 28-12:04) mike: The ES popped up to 1107.50 and stalled/ reversed for a re-entry on the short side. A triangle pattern is forming, the NQ needs to hold its support at the 1876.50-1875.75 zone or a push towards 1098-1097 on ES should occur.

(Jul 28-12:48) mike: 07.50-08.00 still key area, old resist and 60ema on 5 min chart. nq is the lager, needs to stay over 1876.50 supp or it breaks down

(Jul 28-12:57) mike: 06.75 should hold now if going to break out to upside

(Jul 28-13:13) mike: The ES finally took out the 1107.25-1107.50 zone and that area now needs to hold on a pullback to avoid another top. The NQ is weaker and will lead the market lower if still weak, as bounces are not holding.

(Jul 28-13:22) mike: ugly acting mkt, avoiding longs , short the run ups they will not stick
(Jul 28-13:24) mike: i'll put on audio until beige book

(Jul 28-13:56) mike: watch nq 1876-1878 area. mkt in trouble unless that is exceeded/ held

(Jul 28-14:10) mike: back to 08 again... 06.75-06.50 must hold if low is,
(Jul 28-14:13) mike: 1876-1878 on nq sill must be cleared/ held to get out of trouble

(Jul 28-14:24) mike: 04.50-05.50 resist
(Jul 28-14:24) mike: 98.500-97.50 supp/ target

(Jul 28-14:38) mike: 05.50 should be key resist now

(Jul 28-14:42) mike: The NQ reversed from 1877 resistance before the Beige book release and then the market made new lows for the day. The 1105.50 area on the ES needs cleared/ held or 1098.50-1097.50 is still possible.

(Jul 28-14:47) mike: 1105.50 shouldnt be exceeded/ held now, stay shorts -- audio on for a bit

(Jul 28-15:02) mike: trend day action / 98.50-97.50 key and reversal possible if reached
(Jul 28-15:05) mike: a bounce would need to be more than the 2-3 point bounces we have had that stall out, selloff... trend down otherwise

(Jul 28-15:12) mike: 1107.75-1102.25 resist now

(Jul 28-15:24) mike: 1101.75-1102.25 rejected.

(Jul 28-15:34) mike: 1104.50-1105.50 a short, 1101.50-1101.00 supp now must hold

(Jul 28-15:46) mike: 10500 on dow cash , 1104 ES , need a close over to avoid more downside

(Jul 28-15:47) mike: have a good rest of the day

Tuesday- July 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 27-09:41) mike: 1117.00-1118.00 sell zone w tgt stop, 1115 supp needs hold or 1112-1111 testes

(Jul 27-09:54) mike: 15.50resist
(Jul 27-09:55) mike: 1112-1111 target / gap fill area
(Jul 27-09:57) mike: consumer confidence in 2 minutes

(Jul 27-10:11) mike: could bounce but dbl top at 1118 resist is a top for now

(Jul 27-10:15) mike: The ES made a double top at 1117.00-1118.00 and that looks like a top for now. Sell the bounces and beware that it will take a break/ hold under 1108 to turn the trends.

(Jul 27-10:21) mike: 12.00-13.25 resist now ,
(Jul 27-10:26) mike: 12.75 rejected, 1111 small supp

(Jul 27-10:35) mike: small wedge, test of 13 should fail
(Jul 27-10:39) mike: 13.00 rejected, must hold 1110 on dip here

(Jul 27-10:47) mike: 1113.00-1113.50 now key resist to get over and hold, or else highs in place

(Jul 27-10:54) mike: 1110 held... this is just above a transition zone. if 1109-1108 breaks vand
(Jul 27-10:56) mike: a break/hold under 1109 turns bigger trends , stay with shorts

(Jul 27-11:04) mike: 1108.50-1108.00 bounce, but no gusto, 10.00-10.50 resist

(Jul 27-11:12) mike: The ES dropped from 1118.00 resistance to 1109.50, and a bounce off of 1109.50 formed a small rising wedge and was turned back at the updated 1113 area. The ES stays in trend down mode unless 1110.00-1110.50 is exceeded and held on a pullback.

(Jul 27-11:18) mike: the move down has been a grind, per last nights update the upside should be tough, the vix could give sell sigs if this continues. if short from the 1117-1118 area, a keeper of part for a swing trade towards 1098-1097 area, possibly. first, the 1105.00-1104.50 was last hour low yesterday, key area as some shorts trapped there

(Jul 27-11:24) mike: 1108.50-1109.00 now resist

(Jul 27-11:43) mike: i'll be away for about an hour. the way this acts, a pullback needs to stay over 1108.50-1107.75 now . or get over 1110 and hold to avoid a deeper drop. 1113 resist if they run up thru 1110

(Jul 27-12:55) mike: just back. they did go test 1113 and reverse. its key resist, sell em on bounces a top in

(Jul 27-13:11) mike: The 1110.00-1110.50 area was exceeded but the updated resistance at 1113 turned the market back down. The market has given two-sided action so far, but per last night's update don't expect bounces to stick. A test of 1113 on the ES along with the 1888 area on the NQ should be sold if the market is going to stay weak.

(Jul 27-13:27) mike: 1110.00-1100
(Jul 27-13:27) mike: 10.00-10.50 now key resist

(Jul 27-13:51) mike: a rising W , good supp now at 09.00-08.50 at most should hold

(Jul 27-14:07) mike: no sticking to bounces. 1109.00 held so far but 1111, then 1113 area a big resist to clear , on a bounce

(Jul 27-14:18) mike: that should be a good low for now
(Jul 27-14:21) mike: 11.00-10.50 supp , range trade new supp, 13.50 resist

(Jul 27-14:42) mike: The ES dropped to 1107.00 and turned up and tested 1113 again. The 1109 level held on 4 tests and that 1109.00-1108.50 area needs to hold now to avoid a test/ break of the lows. IF 1113 is exceeded, then 1115.50-1116.00 would be next with 1118 as the key resistance now.

(Jul 27-15:13) mike: so far there has been 9 moves of 4 or more points on ES. its winding up to make a good sized move. the 1108 level needs to hold on a pullback or the higher lows would break.

(Jul 27-15:23) mike: IF 13.00-13.50 cleared they could get shorts covering n run this up towards 16 or so

(Jul 27-15:35) mike: 3rd failure at 1113 area, 1110.50 , 1108 at worst, must hold on the down side or breakdn

Monday- July 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 26-09:16) mike: 1102.50-1104.00on es, 1876.25-1878.50 key early. 98-97 a key supp

(Jul 26-10:12) mike: The ES poked to 1101.75 on the open, having come down from the 1102.50-1104.00 area pre-open, and pulled back to the updated 1098-1097 key support and launched higher on the home sales data. The 1106.75-1107.25 should be hard to break/ hold but if it can then the 1111.50-1112.50 is possible. The ES needs to hold over 1104-1103 to avoid reversing, and 1098-1097 is now a key support.

(Jul 26-10:16) mike: watch nq, stalling up here. 05 needs to hold on dip

(Jul 26-10:26) mike: nq rolled over , 1107.25 exceeded by 1 tick -- es supp at 1104.50, it rolls over if 06 not broken and held

(Jul 26-10:34) mike: 04.75-05.25 resist now

(Jul 26-10:47) mike: 1106.75-1107.25 rejected 3 times - if 1102.25 not defended , then a high should be in /

(Jul 26-10:59) mike: The ES rejected the 1106.75-1107.25 and pulled back and is holding the 1103 support. That must be defended to stay in bullish mode. If that area is broken, and then not able to bounce right back and get back over 1105 then a reversal could set-up. Otherwise, the market is still 'safe" as long as 1103 is held.

(Jul 26-11:15) mike: 1104 is now the trend support. no damage done unless broken

(Jul 26-11:21) mike: 1006.75-1106.25 spp now , need hold

(Jul 26-11:37) mike: 1111-1112 is a big resist and reversal area likely, if reached and move stalls out. but the 1108.75 there could be a high if 1106.75 can not hold . they need to stay over 11070-1106 area to stay trend up

(Jul 26-11:49) mike: need to stay over 1108 now or things are changing. 1111-1112 should be tested -if- that holds

(Jul 26-12:01) mike: 08 held, if broken short small on bounce w/ stop over high, rally about over
(Jul 26-12:07) mike: It has been trend up after testing 1103 and the 1109.50 level was a lid so far. This should be close to a high, but only if the 1108 area is broken. If that happens, or 1111-1112 is reversed, then things could be changing with a test of 1103 now key support.

(Jul 26-13:07) mike: The 1108 level was broken and 1106.75 old resistance was the pullback low. The market is slow and in narrow ranges and the NQ is not pulling its weight. If 1108.50 is not exceeded/ held then a drop towards the 1103 area is in the cards, and must hold to avoid a reversal day. If the VIX closes up, its a red flag for a reversal.

(Jul 26-13:12) mike: they have been springing right back. if no run up, its change time

(Jul 26-13:38) mike: slow w/ sporadic spurts both ways. selling the pops under 1109 a scalps , but damage not done unless/ until that 1107 is broken/ not quickly reversed,

(Jul 26-13:55) mike: they could still get to 1111-1112 , but its struggling. if we get there be on reversal alert.

(Jul 26-14:02) mike: 08-07 needs to hold now . thats been pivotal this afternoon. i'll turn on audio in about 5 min

(Jul 26-14:16) mike: The slow motion action could make a break any time. The ES hasn't been able to stay over 1109 so if they are vulnerable. If exceeded, then pop up to the 1111-1112 area is possible. If that is rejected could top off a move on the upside. The 1108-1107 area needs to be defended to avoid potential trouble, or a decent pullback anyway.

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 26-15:21) mike: es needs to hold 06.75-06.25 , 08 is pivotal resist

(Jul 26-15:26) mike: The ES took out 1108 and spilled to 1104.50 before turning up with 60 minutes left. Still have good resistance around 1111-1112, but 1108 is pivotal and needs to hold to keep the market from a late reversal.

(Jul 26-15:38) mike: 1108 held, if 09.50 is not rejected then here ,, then 1111-1112 possible - break of 08 goes to 1106.50 area.
(Jul 26-15:52) mike: 1111-1112 reached, they should stay over 1108 or something is wrong. have a good rest of the day

Friday- July 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 23-09:22) mike: sell 90.50 area if reached and move stalls out
(Jul 23-09:27) mike: 1085.50-1085.00 key supp early , a break / hold is breaking down towards 81-80

(Jul 23-09:36) mike: must clear 87 and hold to get a rally going
(Jul 23-09:40) mike: 88.50 needs cleared / held

(Jul 23-09:57) mike: puts bought yesterday, cover them on drop towards 1082-1081 basis ES, 1092.25 shouldnt be exceeded/ held now

(Jul 23-10:12) mike: The ES turned up from just under the 1085.50-1085.00 zone on the ES and sprinted to 1091.25 resistance in 15 minutes, then reversed and dropped to 1084.00 low so far. This range within a range should hold around 1081-1080 if its to hold together. A move back to the 1091 area needs some gusto to avoid another drop.

(Jul 23-10:48) mike: pullback should hold 90 area
(Jul 23-10:52) mike: 93.50 needs cleared/ held or still in range... 90.00-89.50 supp

(Jul 23-10:58) mike: The move reversed from 1093.25, and the market has spent little time above that. The 1090.00-1089.50 area needs to hold or a breakout will have to wait another day.
(Jul 23-10:59) mike: a short under 92

(Jul 23-11:03) mike: 90.00-89.50 area, needs to hold, or a high in place .

(Jul 23-11:07) mike: mkt ok unless that 90.00-89.50 breaks. / need to step away a bit. another rejection of 93 area , then take out 90, thats all that breaks it lower,

(Jul 23-11:12) mike: short up here

(Jul 23-11:44) mike: stay w/ shorts / only a hold over 92-93 gets them out of trouble

(Jul 23-12:03) mike: The 1093-1094 area has been sold for a day and a half, failing at the top of this range. Buying has been coming in on pullbacks, so its ""safe" over 1088.50 but must hold over 1094 to get a breakout, not a fakeout.

(Jul 23-12:09) mike: range inside a range, but if not short use a pop up towards 92-93 to fizzle to sell

(Jul 23-12:28) mike: they didn't spend much time under 88.50-88.00, that is like 93-84 on top,
(Jul 23-12:32) mike: 1855 on nq is pivotal, stay with shorting bounces , toppy action

(Jul 23-12:45) mike: nq is toast, any bounce there a good short . 1838 supp there is stay under 1849
(Jul 23-12:50) mike: should break 84 and test 1081.00-1080.25 if 88.50-89.00 sold

(Jul 23-13:05) mike: After the last update a spike to the 1094.00-1094.50 resistance was reversed and a drop from 1094.75 to 1086.50 occurred in choppy trading. Look for short covering/ buying if the lows are broken and the 1081 area is reversed. The market soundly rejected the 1093-1094 area a number of times and is a short unless cleared / held on a dip.

(Jul 23-13:29) mike: breakout to 1097.50-1098.50 major zone, a drop to 93.50-92.50 should / must hold now

(Jul 23-13:35) mike: I mis read that for sure. The market has a good bid, but should pull back. The 1095 area should hold, or 1092.50 at worst, otherwise we have a fake-out. There should be good resistance at 1102-1103 if there is another push higher.

(Jul 23-13:54) mike: 96 supp needs to hold, a break of it goes towards 92, its key supp.

(Jul 23-14:09) mike: 98.50 now needs to hold to stay trend up.
(Jul 23-14:12) mike: if no bounce here they topped

(Jul 23-14:18) mike: this pattern is not good, a lower high that reverses could start pullback
(Jul 23-14:21) mike: short a ounce, 99 resist , high in if 95 not held

(Jul 23-14:30) mike: The 1096 level held and the ES tagged 1100.50 before reversing. The chart pattern is not good, and a a bounce from 1096-1095 is possible but if they make a run to test the high and reverse, it could be the end of the move. If 1096-95 is broken, the 1092.50 area needs to hold or a bigger reversal occurs.

(Jul 23-14:55) mike: slow / thin action, a double bottom at 96 support, mkt is still ok until broken. 1102.50-1104.00 hurdle up here

(Jul 23-15:03) mike: less momentum on each push. careful with longs

(Jul 23-15:14) mike: now a 123 , 1100 should not be cleared/ held

(Jul 23-15:20) mike: 96 still key supp, as is dow 10400. need to close up above those to stay away from trouble . if they break, then 92.50 area is good supp

(Jul 23-15:41) mike: be short something, adding puts
(Jul 23-15:42) mike: the will be a gift short if the highs tested, 92.50 s1

Thursday- July 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 22-09:15) mike: over 1068 by 10 points up here. a pullback should hold the 75-74 area or this 78.50-79.00 area can be a top

(Jul 22-09:45) mike: need to stay over 82.50-82.00

(Jul 22-09:58) mike: home sales data in 1 min
(Jul 22-10:05) mike: 92.50 resist , 87 supp ,

(Jul 22-10:14) mike: The big up open fed upon itself and they rallied strong to 1091.75 on the ES so far. There is good resistance at 1092 area to clear. The 1085 level should hold on a pullback, or another top will be in place.

(Jul 22-10:20) mike: 123 top on nq , needs to break over 1862,
(Jul 22-10:23) mike: nq needs to clear 1860 now, rolling over if not exceeded soon
(Jul 22-10:26) mike: slow move, mkt ok here still over 88 on es

(Jul 22-10:41) mike: 88.50-88.00 supp , need to stay over that , 10300 on dow cash. only a break/ hold of those turns trend / reversal .
(Jul 22-10:46) mike: 92.00-92.50 is a key resist, need to hold 90 now

(Jul 22-10:55) mike: steady grind higher, should hold 92 area now, 90.50 at worst. otherwise the trend up could be changing
(Jul 22-10:59) mike: thats it for upside , sell a pp to lower high that reverses

(Jul 22-11:04) mike: The ES reached 1093.50 and turned down, and the grind higher looks like it topped. If that area is tested and the move stalls/ reverses it is a good reward/ risk short with a tight stop. The 1088.50 area now key support.

(Jul 22-11:27) mike: its only a scalp short on a reversal near 93.. the mkt doesn't break unless 88.50 area is broken.

(Jul 22-11:34) mike: scalp out 91.25 or better on part , 93.25 should not be exceeded if rolling over.
(Jul 22-11:36) mike: trail stop on rest, 90 needs to hold ot top in

(Jul 22-11:47) mike: The ES popped up to 1093.25 and stalled/ reversed setting up a short and 1088.50 was tested, but unless 1090.50 is exceeded/ held there is more to go on the downside, 1082 area would be key.

(Jul 22-12:04) mike: if 89.50 exceeded then 90.50 -91.00 next resist, should fail there if a top is indeed in place
(Jul 22-12:06) mike: nq leading this, a better short

(Jul 22-12:21) mike: 90.50 rejected. thats a key area , shorts ok under that

(Jul 22-12:27) mike: that might have been a ''heads up'' tricky mkt , usually gets this way just before a big move. they would need to hold under 88 and dow cash 10300 to put pressure on, upside still has a slim chance if held into 1pm or so

(Jul 22-13:09) mike: mkt slow motion, but long as 1090, at lowest 1088.50 continues to hold no damage done. i just dont see much more upside, but if 93 double is cut thru then 98 area is still possible

(Jul 22-13:22) mike: will put on audio for a bit but not much to say . get long on pullback that holds 1091
(Jul 22-13:26) mike: key here/
(Jul 22-13:27) mike: if 91 not held we may have trouble

(Jul 22-13:39) mike: The ES turned up from 1087.25 and bounced to 1092.25 and stalled out. Cautious long up here as a decent drop could occur any time here under 1092.

audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 22-14:25) mike: audio off, 91.25 needs reversed or top in

(Jul 22-14:28) mike: The ES bounce to a slightly higher high and reversed. The 1091.25 level now must hold or a top will be in. A push towards 1097.50-1098.50 should be a short if the move stalls/ reverses.

(Jul 22-14:35) mike: 92 now must hold, buy some puts at 97.50-98.50 area if reached

(Jul 22-14:43) mike: if they test the high its a gift short now

(Jul 22-14:56) mike: they'd need to run up, then begin to reverse... similar to move from 14:26 to 14:30 move up or break that 90.50 and not quickly reverse again. thats now key supp

(Jul 22-15:15) mike: 90.50 held so far. if they go under and stay, then its goes from buy dip, to its pressure on
(Jul 22-15:22) mike: 92.50 need hold here

(Jul 22-15:30) mike: sellers on every bounce to 93.50-94.25/ key resist to sell now
(Jul 22-15:34) mike: longs nervous now, shorts on bounces
(Jul 22-15:36) mike: add to puts on any bounce now

(Jul 22-15:43) mike: 88.50-89.00 resist
(Jul 22-15:46) mike: 90.50 s short on a stall there

(Jul 22-15:58) mike: 91 should be it, have a nice rest of the day

Wednesday- July 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 21-09:36) mike: 1st supp at 80.75 gap fill
(Jul 21-09:42) mike: 83.50-84.00 resist now
(Jul 21-09:57) mike: 80.00-80.75 resist
(Jul 21-10:06) mike: 80 needs cleared/ held to get out of trend down

(Jul 21-10:14) mike: 80.75 needs exceeded still, a pullback must hold around 79
(Jul 21-10:19) mike: that might be it for the bounce
(Jul 21-10:19) mike: 1840 on nq resist to clear

(Jul 21-10:27) mike: The ES opened and reversed the 1084.50-1085.00 area and dropped 8.75 points while the NQ dropped 31 points. The 1082varea on ES and 1840 on NQ are resistance and if not cleared then a break of the lows is likely.

(Jul 21-11:00) mike: nq tagged its 1840 resist and dropped off 5 nq pts so far. it needs to hold 1833 , or more pressure on
(Jul 21-11:10) mike: mkt needs to not break 1075 ES 10200 Dow cash, OR top likely in place

(Jul 21-11:39) mike: a 123 bottom, but this should fail near 78-79

(Jul 21-11:50) mike: After the last update the NQ tagged 1840 and the ES reached 1081.50 and the market dropped to the 1075.25-1074.75 zone before a bounce. That is key along with 10200 on the Dow cash. The market isn't acting very well, so resistance at 1078.50-1079.00 needs cleared to avoid a break.

(Jul 21-12:05) mike: a pullback should hold 78 to keep uptrend, nq leading this up. 81.50-82.00 resist on 1 more pop up. mkt is ''safe'' as long as the 75 area on ES and 10200 dow cash are defended. we could be range bound, a sprint that test highs should fail

(Jul 21-12:13) mike: if long off 78, tight stop , sprits stall and reverse

(Jul 21-12:33) mike: the sprints higher get sold soon as momentum dies. still is ok on dips unless 78 breaks

(Jul 21-12:47) mike: wedge break, sell a bounce to 80 or a bit higher tht reverses/ stalls

(Jul 21-12:56) mike: 80.25 reversed and if short take part off at 78.50 or better, 78 must break'
(Jul 21-12:58) mike: that ws quick, resist at 79 area, 81-82 now key resist
(Jul 21-13:03) mike: 79 tagged, key area now

(Jul 21-13:15) mike: The ES bounced back to 1081.25 again and backed off. If the ES can not get over 1079.50-1080.00 area and hold, then the downside could give way and see a drop towards the 1075-11074 key area

(Jul 21-13:23) mike: 79.75 was bounce high so far, need a break of 78 to get a push lower in gear
(Jul 21-13:31) mike: upside breakout, 79.50 area now supp

(Jul 21-13:55) mike: triple bottom at 78.00-77.50 area and turn up again, its a buying opportunity. if the highs 1085 area tested , beare of reversal
(Jul 21-13:59) mike: The ES reached 1079.75 and rolled over but the 1078.00-1077.50 area has turned to good support in this range. The market is ok unless 1078.00-1077.50 is broken, but upside appears limited so a sprint higher should fail.

(Jul 21-14:00) mike: 4th time wont hold
(Jul 21-14:04) mike: sell bounces under 80
(Jul 21-14:08) mike: i'll turn on audio. 78.50 good resist, shouldn't be exceeded,

audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 21-14:53) mike: The ES bounced to 1081.50 again before letting go on the down side. Not too interested in the long side with 1070 resistance, and 1075 as key. Unless 1070 is exceeded another 10 points towards 1060 or lower in in the cards.

(Jul 21-15:01) mike: 64.50-65.00 now supp

(Jul 21-15:12) mike: 65 resist [not supp] was tagged and is pivotal here end of day. as is dow10100

(Jul 21-15:24) mike: double bottom, but that 1068 on es and 1824 on nq were resist before breaking down, mkt not out of trouble unless cleared

(Jul 21-15:50) mike: unless 68 on es and 1820 nq exceeded, pressure still on. if cleared, a low can be made . have a good rest of the day.

Tuesday- July 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 20-09:58) mike: 57-56 should be tested

(Jul 20-10:07) mike: 57.50 needs cleared/ held

(Jul 20-10:24) mike: good resist 61.50-62.00
(Jul 20-10:25) mike: The lower open was reversed from just under the 1054.00-1053.50 zone and there was good buying down there. If 1061.50-1062.00 is rejected they can drop back towards 1057 which should hold if the low is in place.

(Jul 20-10:32) mike: 58 needs to hold. to keep stair step higher.

(Jul 20-10:43) mike: 1061.50-1062.00 rejected.
(Jul 20-10:48) mike: reversal if 1060.00-1059.50 broken. not quickly reversed up

(Jul 20-10:59) mike: 58.50 then 57.00 supp / 61.50-62.00 key resist now, 1801 on nq

(Jul 20-11:11) mike: a good underlying bid, 62.00-61.50 supp now , 64 area resist

(Jul 20-11:29) mike: The 1061.50-1062.00 area was rejected initially, but the dip held 1059.25 and 1062 was exceeded and held. That is now support on a pullback, and should hold or the trends will roll over. If the 1068.00-1068.50 zone is tested and the move stalls out, then a reversal could occur and top off this bounce.

(Jul 20-11:40) mike: top for now, must hold 61.50 area or 59 next

(Jul 20-11:56) mike: wedge broken , a bounce from here should set up 123 type top near 64 area if reached and reverses

(Jul 20-12:20) mike: the ES just missed 64 , but got 123 top and thats a good resist now , 58 area supp

(Jul 20-12:40) mike: A 2 sided day, toppy acting, 1060 needs to break / hold to turn this over

(Jul 20-13:03) mike: 62.50 now a good supp, -- dow cash has been marking turnes, 10400 top yest, 10000 low this morn, 10100 was bounce high this morn... thats to be watched for pullback possibility ,

(Jul 20-13:21) mike: market still well bid , a test of 63.00-62.50 should/ must hold
(Jul 20-13:32) mike: 65.50 should hold
(Jul 20-13:41) mike: stalling a bit but over 1066 its bullish still, mkt has good buying coming in careful trying to fade this
(Jul 20-13:44) mike: 68 is key now
(Jul 20-13:46) mike: key supp on a decent pullback is 1066 area, 10100 dow cash

(Jul 20-13:55) mike: The ES pushed thru the 1065 high and is on a run. As long as a pullback holds 1069.50 the sprint continues. The 1076.50-1077.00 in next resistance and if no reversal then 1082 is possible on this move.

(Jul 20-14:00) mike: 1 min chart on these momentum moves, 9 and 18 ema as trend s/r. 73.25 now needs to hold , then 71 a key supp now
(Jul 20-14:12) mike: that was a parabolic move up. if 75 is tested , needs to go right thru it and nt stall or a reversal possible

(Jul 20-14:24) mike: if 72.50 not cleared, the 69.50 in site

(Jul 20-14:41) mike: 123 top, 74 must be cleared/ held now

(Jul 20-15:00) mike: must hold 70.50 area to avoid reversal. but toppy acting, shorting area around 74-75 if a pop up there stalls
.
(Jul 20-15:14) mike: this could go for 1082.50-1084.00 , a dip to 74 area should hold now

(Jul 20-15:25) mike: at resist but still up as long as 74.50 holds

(Jul 20-15:44) mike: tht might be it, if they pop to 80 and reverse it, its a short. gap day turned trend day, the high could come with 5 min left if not already in. 76 now supp

(Jul 20-16:02) mike: watch 8250-8400 area for possible turn. good supp at 75 area which will be pivotal in morning. have a nice rest of the day

Monday- July 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 19-09:28) mike: sell early strength

(Jul 19-09:39) mike: high should be in

(Jul 19-09:45) mike: 1068.50-1069.00

(Jul 19-09:53) mike: 1818.50-1819.50 NQ
(Jul 19-09:55) mike: 67.50-67.00 supp is key now

(Jul 19-10:05) mike: The ES reached the 1068.50-1069.00 resistance zone and the NQ reached its 1818.50-1819.50 zone and a decent pullback started. Those should not be exceeded. If 1064.00-1063.50 is tested and reversed we could get another bounce. A break/ hold over resistance could give 1 more run towards 1072-1073 area.

(Jul 19-10:19) mike: 64.50-65.00 resist on ES, 1808-1810 nq

(Jul 19-10:23) mike: 10100 on dow cash target 2
(Jul 19-10:27) mike: 62.75-63.50 resist now

(Jul 19-10:32) mike: The ES cut right through 1064 on the way to the 1058.50-1057.50 initial support area. That 1064 area is good resistance now, and shouldn't be exceeded/ held to keep the market down.

(Jul 19-10:36) mike: from resist to supp, 62.75-63.00 looks pivotal
(Jul 19-10:41) mike: 3 tests of 58, will break as that area erodes after several tests
(Jul 19-10:49) mike: under 61.50-62.00 es, 1804 nq press on
(Jul 19-10:50) mike: 1054.00-1053.50 next supp

(Jul 19-11:00) mike: need to get over 59.50-60.50 now and hold on a dip , or still more downside
(Jul 19-11:09) mike: 60.50-5950 supp now on a dip here , needs to hold

(Jul 19-11:18) mike: 60.50 held, 6350-64.50 good resist

(Jul 19-11:25) mike: losing momentum at that resist, 62.50 needs to hold

(Jul 19-11:31) mike: 60.50 a key area now , building another wedge (per ebook)

(Jul 19-11:42) mike: The ES bounced off of 1057 to just under the 1064 resistance. The 1060 needs to hold or the lows could be tested. They would need to hold on a test or the 1054 area would be in the cards.

(Jul 19-12:05) mike: just under 64 is lot of resist on different methods, good cluster, nothing good happens unless cleared

(Jul 19-12:21) mike: The ES double topped just under 1064 resistance and the 1808-1809 area on the NQ but the ES has yet to break 1060 and 10100 again on Dow cash. If broken, then the market remains vulnerable and a test/ break of the lows possible. If 1064 is exceeded, then a pullback will be a buying opportunity.

(Jul 19-12:44) mike: 64 broken , now triple top at 1809 on nq is the key break out area
(Jul 19-12:48) mike: The ES took out 1064 so as long as 1062.50 holds on a dip we can get a test of the highs.
(Jul 19-12:52) mike: 64 now supp.
(Jul 19-12:54) mike: a drop to 65 need hold , toppy acting
(Jul 19-12:57) mike: a bounce to a lower high tht reverses is a short now

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 19-13:44) mike: pressure on under 1062.50

(Jul 19-14:16) mike: dip should hold 63 area, 1805 strong supp nq

(Jul 19-14:33) mike: 64 needs to hold now

(Jul 19-14:56) mike: highs tested, but dip to 68.00-67.50 bow supp/ need to hold or 65 tested

(Jul 19-15:02) mike: The ES held 1061 and ran up to test the early highs. As long as the 1066.50 area holds the market is still in decent shape and 1072 area is still possible on this move up.
(Jul 19-15:05) mike: small 123 top. 69.00 needs cleared
(Jul 19-15:07) mike: mkt ok as long as 67 is held ,
(Jul 19-15:09) mike: 1072.50-1073.50 is short term key area

(Jul 19-15:18) mike: mkt has had good last hours lately. the 69 area now supp, must hold or 1072 may not be reached

(Jul 19-15:25) mike: 69 resist again, 1818 nq.

(Jul 19-15:35) mike: 65.50 will need to hold. , or poor close for a change to 62.50 or so

(Jul 19-16:23) mike: have a good rest of the day

Friday- July 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 16-09:18) mike: sell bounces ,89.00-90.50 if they get there is a gift

(Jul 16-09:38) mike: 1086 on es , 1850 nq good/ key resist early

(Jul 16-09:48) mike: mkt breaking down, a run up will be a gift short under 83.50-84.00

(Jul 16-10:03) mike: a bounce will not stick, 76 resist, then 79.50-80.50

(Jul 16-10:10) mike: The market was acting toppy, and now a top is confirmed. A bounce to the 1076-1077 area should fail, but if cleared then 1079-1080 is a good short. The 1065.50 level is next support.

(Jul 16-11:08) mike: 76 failed, test of lows if not exceeded/ held

(Jul 16-11:13) mike: The ES bounced to the 1076 resistance and turned back down. That level needs to be cleared and held now to take some pressure off.

(Jul 16-11:21) mike: 74 needs cleared now to dent downside momentum. 1067.00-1066.50 next key supp

(Jul 16-11:36) mike: last trapped at 72.50-73.00 now, trend day in gear unless 76 exceeded/ held

(Jul 16-11:48) mike: slinky type pattern (per ebook) , stay w/ shorts under 72.50-73.00 pivotal area

(Jul 16-12:00) mike: trend dow day , 66.50-64.25 band is a major supp

(Jul 16-12:12) mike: a move over 72.50-73.00 breaks trend action, , 69.00 need hold or back to the low
(Jul 16-12:16) mike: 66.50-64.25 area ky supp, , cover some short there

(Jul 16-12:39) mike: The 1066.50-1064.25 band is a key support that will need to hold to avoid a drop towards 1058 area. Above, the 1072.50-1073.00 zone looks pivotal, and needs to be cleared/ held to dent the downside momentum.

(Jul 16-12:56) mike: now 69 would need to be exceeded/ held on a pullback. the major supp holding, but action poor . stay w/ shorts unless that breakout occurs

(Jul 16-13:04) mike: if this steady grind continues, we could test 1062, then maybe even 1058.50-1057.50 area.

(Jul 16-13:16) mike: nq trying to hold this together wtch 1810-08 to reverse if going to bounce

(Jul 16-13:24) mike: just sell bounce until signs of life

(Jul 16-13:32) mike: nq did its reversal at 1809. thats key supp now
(Jul 16-13:34) mike: if they get down there again , nq is a buy

(Jul 16-13:46) mike: no reversal ,
(Jul 16-13:48) mike: if they pop up and stall again, load up, 1062 next and 1058 possibly

(Jul 16-14:20) mike: The trend down move is still in gear and if 1062 is broken then the 1058.50-1057.50 area will be seen before any rally attempt occurs. Stay with shorts under 1068-1069 for now.

(Jul 16-14:36) mike: downside losing momentum, if a move over 1067 then it could set up scalp long on pullback to higher low if it reverse up. but unless 67 broken, its still trend d day

(Jul 16-14:54) mike: 2.00-2.50 pt bounces after each lower low, need more than that ,

(Jul 16-15:08) mike: high was made on the opening 5 min, this drop could be stopped only by the closing bell today.
(Jul 16-15:11) mike: 58.50-57.50 may be a magnet ,, 64 resist now

(Jul 16-15:24) mike: if still short bid to cover 58.50 ahead / not so sure about holding over w/e
(Jul 16-15:26) mike: 62 now resist

(Jul 16-15:37) mike: 59.00 low, that's likely it for this leg down, 62.00-61.50 supp now, needs to hold or lows not in.
(Jul 16-15:38) mike: have a great weekend.
(Jul 16-15:42) mike: 62 held, key to end day. again, enjoy your w/e

Thursday- July 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 15-09:47) mike: this pattern on day session only is not good, 92 needs cleared and held

(Jul 15-10:05) mike: 86.75 resist a short, should see 1079.50-1078.50 at least

(Jul 15-10:13) mike: 1079.50-1078.50 must hold or 75 are next. take part profit if short , trail stp
(Jul 15-10:19) mike: 82.50-83.00 now good resist
(Jul 15-10:21) mike: The 1092.50 resistance was rejected on the open and from 1091.75 the ES dropped steadily to 1077 so far. The 1082.50-1083.00 area needs cleared and held on a pullback to interrupt the downside momentum. All bounces should fail today.

(Jul 15-10:33) mike: that 80 area key , slinky pattern (per e-book)

(Jul 15-10:44) mike: this is a feeble bounce , will fail under 83 area

(Jul 15-11:31) mike: the 83 rejected, but 81.75 area needs to break to roll over

(Jul 15-11:41) mike: 81.50 area the support, a dip needs to hold over that now, a push towards 85 area
(Jul 15-11:47) mike: The 1076.50-1076.25 key area held and the first bounce failed but the next pullback was bought and the 1083 area is tested. The 1081.50-1081.00 area must hold or another break down is occurring. Good resistance at 1085-1086 if 1083 is exceeded again.

(Jul 15-11:56) mike: i need to be away for a bit. 81.50 held, no damage done to uptrend , yet. its a short on pop tht fails if 81.50 breaks, - a bounce wont go far from here tho

(Jul 15-12:32) mike: if 80 break / hold, down to 76 again ,

(Jul 15-13:05) mike: i'm back now. if the little sprint higher to stall out 82.75-83.25 its a short. then / or buy if 79 .50 - 79 area tested/

(Jul 15-13:13) mike: audio in a few minutes / a short under 83.50-84.50 / tight stop
(Jul 15-13:15) mike: 60 ema and symmetry at that zone/ key area
(Jul 15-13:19) mike: wrong on that, 83.50-82.50 is good supp, a pullback that holds there should give another push higher

(Jul 15-13:27) mike: parabolic move , 85.50 supp, good resist 87.50-88.50

(Jul 15-13:36) mike: 84.50-83.35 needs to give a bounce, a pop back up a short

(Jul 15-13:48) mike: 84.50 a key supp now. a failure to get thru 86.75-87.00 sets up reversal pattern

(Jul 15-13:52) mike: 123 type top. that should be it for the upside for now
(Jul 15-14:04) mike: 84.50 a key / pivotal area now... 10300 dow cash. mkt ok over those for now. audio on for in few minutes
(Jul 15-14:09) mike: broken, a pop up is a short

(Jul 15-14:35) mike: The ES pulled back to 1079.50 after last update and rallied to the 1088.50 level so far. The 1083.50-1083.00 area is key, and must hold on a pullback to avoid a topping pattern.

(Jul 15-14:56) mike: 86.25 needs to hold now , 88.50-89.50 good resist but no reversal unless86 25 breaks

(Jul 15-15:00) mike: short under 88, a pop to 87 that stalls ideal, mkt toppy still
(Jul 15-15:04) mike: 1.50 point stop , 88.50 shouldn't be exceeded now - 83.50-83.00 good supp
(Jul 15-15:06) mike: scalp out 1/3, trail stop on rest

(Jul 15-15:15) mike: might have caught a top, or close, keeping part for swing trade, cover at 82 or better on day trd or/ and trail stop - 86 good resist now

(Jul 15-15:20) mike: 83.50 resist now\
(Jul 15-15:27) mike: 83.50 rejected, tighen stop
(Jul 15-15:29) mike: nq caught a good bid, ES has god resist at 96. supp 83 now.

(Jul 15-15:34) mike: they went up as fast as they went down. could come back down as fast if 88 rejected
(Jul 15-15:38) mike: 8550 supp, a buy if tested / reversed. the Google number after close moves this out of the range

(Jul 15-15:47) mike: 88 now supp, 94 resist have a good rest of day

Wednesday- July 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 14-09:14) mike: this will be a short the bounces market today . FED Minutes at 2pm today

(Jul 14-09:41) mike: 89.50-90.50 resist , must clear and hold to get out of trouble
(Jul 14-09:45) mike: 1086.00-1085.50 needs to hold now, key supp. must hold

(Jul 14-09:56) mike: 89.50 still needs cleared/ held

(Jul 14-10:03) mike: 86.50 87.00 resist now
(Jul 14-10:08) mike: The ES bounced from the 1086.00-1085.50 support to 1089.50 then reversed. The 1089.50-1090.50 area needs to be cleared and held to get turned around and avoid more selling.

(Jul 14-10:24) mike: 88.50 needs to hold, 91 resist

(Jul 14-10:33) mike: the SOX [semi conductor index] at top of big range [SMH symbol], = 1853-54 NQ , a make or break there,

(Jul 14-10:43) mike: the highs at resist on leading NQ / SOX / should be key area, -- 1847 needs to break there to roll over

(Jul 14-10:52) mike: The market bounced off of the lows pretty well. The 1853-1864 area on the NQ is key hurdle. If not cleared/ held then a top could be in place. The 1088 area on the ES needs to hold or a reversal occurs.

(Jul 14-11:03) mike: 89.00-88.50 key supp now. no damage done yet, unless that breaks - a wedge would break if they go.
(Jul 14-11:07) mike: 91 need hold here if going higher towards 97.50-98.50
(Jul 14-11:12) mike: should be a top there now, if 89 breaks the mkt gets hit w/ selling

(Jul 14-11:21) mike: a dip of more than 3 points on ES breaks momentum.

(Jul 14-11:36) mike: The 1089 level held and the NQ blew thru 1853 and as long as the ES holds on a dip of 3 points or less the upside is in gear. If there is a 3 point drop, the symmetry and trends change and a bounce will be a short.

(Jul 14-11:41) mike: small short, tight stop
(Jul 14-11:44) mike: scratch out, no 3 point drop yet, no top pattern yet. 92.50 supp need to break

(Jul 14-12:02) mike: topped it looks, wedge breaks, and mre than 3 point drop, if 92.50 area breaks. a bounce would be a short

(Jul 14-12:15) mike: The ES stalled out at 1095.50 and has broken a wedge pattern. The 1092.50 level is support, but a bounce to a lower high that reverses is a good shorting opportunity.

(Jul 14-12:34) mike: a turdown from 95 or lower needed to reverse here / or wait for a 3 point pullback for proof

(Jul 14-12:41) mike: its kind of dead here, ready to roll over it looks, but will turn on audio in about 5 min.

(Jul 14-12:51) mike: short under 94.50 now

(Jul 14-12:57) mike: The ES bounced to 1094.50 and reversed. The Fed Minutes are released this afternoon, but sell bounces now as the market made 123 top patterns and broke more than 3 ES points.

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 14-13:04) mike: 92.50 resist if not listening to audio

(Jul 14-13:24) mike: 93.25 on es, 1857 nq should not be exceeded

(Jul 14-13:35) mike: audio off for now
(Jul 14-13:36) mike: 1856.50 is the resist now tht must be exceeded/ held

(Jul 14-13:42) mike: 88 next, nq is your leader
(Jul 14-13:47) mike: 91.75-92.00 resist on es, nq 1852.50-1853.59

(Jul 14-13:54) mike: if no bounce from 88, then the 1079.50-1078.50 is likely on this leg

(Jul 14-14:03) mike: 89.50 key now, 1848 nq -- 18ema on 1 min chart per ebook

(Jul 14-14:10) mike: The market has topped out, and a bounce at this juncture would be a gift. The 1090 area needs to be cleared/ held now to get out of trouble. If 1084 breaks we should see 1079.50-1078.50 before a reversal back up.

(Jul 14-14:17) mike: 85 is key. supp. trend resist at 87.50 now

(Jul 14-14:21) mike: 87.50 rejected. , only short covering holding it up. air pocket drop possible if 87.50 not cleared soon.
(Jul 14-14:24) mike: if short , 87.50 shouldnt be exceeded, trail stop, 79-78 area take some profits
(Jul 14-14:28) mike: audio on for a bit

(Jul 14-15:11) mike: 89.50-90.00 strong resist, nq 1851, test of 85.00-84.50 supp
(Jul 14-15:16) mike: a pop to a lower high near 88 that stalls/ reverses is a re short.

(Jul 14-15:24) mike: mkt acted toppy, now 86.50 is good supp to buy . 90 good resist, only a problem if that is not defended

(Jul 14-15:30) mike: 88.50-88.00 must hold here
(Jul 14-15:34) mike: sell 90 or better, nq 51 or better for a swig trade. puts are still fairly cheap

(Jul 14-15:41) mike: yet another wedge break. sell all bounces , a test of those highs not likely
(Jul 14-15:47) mike: 88.50-89.50 resist , have a great rest of your day.

Tuesday - July 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 13-09:42) mike: top, gap to fill
(Jul 13-09:47) mike: 87 good resist, 1830 on nq / key resist

(Jul 13-10:06) mike: 1090.25-1091.50 on ES, 1838.50-1840.25 NQ major areas. 87.50 now supp that must hold
(Jul 13-10:10) mike: reversal at resist, 88.00-7.50 must hld
(Jul 13-10:17) mike: 88 is a transition. if broken , a top in

(Jul 13-10:22) mike: The 1090.25-1091.50 zone on the ES and 1838.50-1840.25 on the NQ pre-open were sold. However, the 1088.00-1087.50 area is support and it must break to turn down. If it does 1084 is then key to hold.

(Jul 13-10:23) mike: 123 type

(Jul 13-10:30) mike: 87.00 1st supp
(Jul 13-10:33) mike: those could turn out to be short term tops , 88.50 now resist

(Jul 13-10:41) mike: 88 should be resist now , 1828 nq
(Jul 13-10:46) mike: The 1088 area on the ES and 1828 area on the NQ need to be cleared and held or a bigger drop is in the cards as the highs at resistance might be it for the upside short term.

(Jul 13-10:54) mike: if 87.50-87.00 holds on a dip, we can get 1 more pop up to test the high

(Jul 13-11:07) mike: 87 held, needs to stay over that or they roll over

(Jul 13-11:19) mike: dbl tops, sell tight stop

(Jul 13-11:27) mike: should turn down, but not a reversal unless 88 is broken.

(Jul 13-11:34) mike: buy pullback to 90 area if reached and move stalls out. its good supp. watch 1840 nq for pullback to start
(Jul 13-11:37) mike: 94.50 rst, thn up to 98.50-99.50

(Jul 13-11:52) mike: The 1088 level was cleared and held on a dip and ran to 1094.00. The trends are very extended, and this can reverse at any time. But trends are up and as long as 1090 is not broken. If they don't fail again near 1094.50, the market can remain strong enough to test the 1098 area before this ends. If 1090 breaks, then a bounce that follows would set up a short.

(Jul 13-12:04) mike: 90 held but sell pop
(Jul 13-12:04) mike: 92 good resist

(Jul 13-12:19) mike: 90.50 holding , 1836 on nq -- needs to break to turn down
(Jul 13-12:22) mike: bought a few puts up here,
(Jul 13-12:24) mike: a break / hold of 1090 and 1835 on nq needed to put pressure on. 92.50-93.00 good resist now

(Jul 13-12:32) mike: if top in place, a 123 reversal possible up here, but
(Jul 13-12:32) mike: trend-up day going unless 90.50 is broken.

(Jul 13-12:41) mike: i'l small short up here fyi-
(Jul 13-12:41) mike: The 1090.50 level held as did 1835 on the NQ, and now a break of those would put pressure on. We have lower high in place, so IF 1094 is exceeded then the 1098 area would be next and likely finish this leg up.

(Jul 13-12:51) mike: that was another 123 top, as in my ebook. have been good scalps , 90.50 held but should break soon

(Jul 13-13:04) mike: tone has changed... if long sell when you can, not when you have to. top of some magnitude close at hand , break 90.50 and not quickly reverse puts pressure on. if they have 1 more sprint towards 98 area, thats the upside potential as i see it

(Jul 13-13:15) mike: 87.50-86.75 minor supp
(Jul 13-13:17) mike: 90.50 resist now. -1837 area on nq
(Jul 13-13:20) mike: The ES made 3 lower highs and finally broke the 1090.50 area. The highs could be big on the short term. Short bounces as things are changing today.

(Jul 13-13:26) mike: 1836 a good short on nq on a bounce that stalls out, it can gather steam

(Jul 13-13:36) mike: 90.50 rejected. key areas. need to get over and stay over to avoid more downside

(Jul 13-13:46) mike: 88 area should break and go to 86-ish as long as 90.50 is not held. nq 1837.50 the equivalent level

(Jul 13-14:22) mike: if 90 area tested , need quick reversal up,

(Jul 13-14:36) mike: 91.00-90.50 good supp now

(Jul 13-14:53) mike: After the last update the ES bounced to 1090.75 before dropping back to 1088 and that area was bought. The upside from here should be limited, but no reversal unless 1091 on ES and 1841 on the NQ are broken soon.

(Jul 13-15:01) mike: 92.25-92.00 now supp
(Jul 13-15:09) mike: dbl top, so drop to 92.50 likely first

(Jul 13-15:16) mike: 97.50-98.50 is the next good resist. 1852-54 area on NQ thats the max before a good sized drop/ 93.00-92.50 supp needs to hold

(Jul 13-15:25) mike: sell at 93.50-94.00 zone , bid are evaporating at 94 and above

(Jul 13-15:31) mike: get out at 93.25 or better
(Jul 13-15:32) mike: will await proof before going against trend - but feels top heavy

(Jul 13-15:37) mike: 92.50 now a key area. the last 30 minutes has been bullish so no harm done unless 92.50 area broken.

(Jul 13-15:50) mike: should yet test 97.50-98.50 area. if not, and 92.50 is broken, it will no doubt give a bunch of sell sigs. watch vix, if it goes over 24 it gives 5 outta 5 sell sigs -- thus my caution up here

(Jul 13-15:59) mike: thats why, mkt is on shaky ground. i will do audio update tomorrow some. have a great rest of the day.
 

Monday - July 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 12-09:17) mike: 72 as high right after globex open last night

(Jul 12-09:48) mike: 73.50 now supp, needs to hold or a reversal occurs . 1078.50-1079.50 strong resist
(Jul 12-09:52) mike: top in , a test of 1076 -77 that reverses is a short

(Jul 12-10:04) mike: 123 top, stop at 77 on shorts -- 73.50 area needs to hold or a reversal of trends to down
(Jul 12-10:05) mike: take part off, trail stop

(Jul 12-10:10) mike: 73-72 small supp
(Jul 12-10:14) mike: 75 would need to be cleared/ held to avoid drop thru 72 area
(Jul 12-10:16) mike: that 73.50 is key to hold here too, 1820 on nq

(Jul 12-10:20) mike: The lower open was reversed and the ES ran up to 1077.25 and then made a 123 top and pulled back. The 1073.50-1073.00 area needs to hold or the market will roll over. The high should be in, be if exceeded then 1078.50-1079.50 will be a reversal area.

(Jul 12-10:25) mike: a top should be in, use strength to sell in to. 73.50-74.50 resist now

(Jul 12-10:31) mike: 73.50-74.00 is key/ pivotal area now ,

(Jul 12-10:43) mike: still under pressure under 73.50-74.00 , test / break of lows

(Jul 12-10:55) mike: The 1073.50 area was broken and held on a bounce, and must now be exceeded and held to avoid more downside. The 1065.00-1064.25 area will be strong support and must hold or we have a bigger reversal going on.

(Jul 12-10:58) mike: test of low, bounce should fail under 72 , or little run up possible
(Jul 12-11:00) mike: if still partial short from 76-77 area, 72.25 shouldn't be exceeded now trail
(Jul 12-11:03) mike: 69.75-70.50 resist now
(Jul 12-11:06) mike: if you bought puts on friday, take part off down near 67 or better basis ES

(Jul 12-11:15) mike: 69.50-70.50 resist now

(Jul 12-11:23) mike: need 68 to hold, turn up thru 69.50 resist if going to avoid 1065.00-1064.25 key supp for today

(Jul 12-11:38) mike: 70.50 should be it for bounce

(Jul 12-11:50) mike: nq is leading the way. keep an eye on it too

(Jul 12-12:02) mike: a breakout over 70.50, upside could see 73.50-74.00 again if 70.50 holds

(Jul 12-12:13) mike: 73.50-74.00 met. 72 now supp that needs to hold

(Jul 12-12:35) mike: The ES fell to 1066.50 before turning back up. However, the move stopped at 1073.50 and that is a key resistance now. The 1070.50 area needs to hold or a test of the lows could be in the cards. IF the 1073.50 area is exceeded and held then 1077-1078 is major short term resistance now.

(Jul 12-12:48) mike: tick reached +1000 at the 74.50 and ought to be a top
(Jul 12-12:52) mike: in a bit i will do audio update, no stick on bounces per last nights update. eye on nq at 1812-1811 , that needs to hold

(Jul 12-13:01) mike: wedge break, bounce to 72 area a sell

audio...audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 12-13:17) mike: back to chat box (had some audio problems)   72 broken/ held. it's now good supp

(Jul 12-13:24) mike: After the last update the ES popped up to 1074.50, stalled and reversed and tested the 1070.50 break-out area from earlier. As long as that 1070.50-1070.00 area is not broken, no damage done. The upside has not been holding either and just backed off 1074.50 again. So a pop over 1075 must hold or another drop should occur.

(Jul 12-13:31) mike: that 73.25 needs to be defended or a dbl top confirmed / triggered

(Jul 12-13:47) mike: 75 rejected, another wedge could break, a bounce to lower high that reverses is another 123 type of top. the 72.50-72.00 is support to hold to avoid breaking down

(Jul 12-13:58) mike: 74.50 supp now should/ must hold here, if broken a high in place for test of 72

(Jul 12-14:04) mike: lost steam , must clear 75.50 very soon or a quick drop can happen

(Jul 12-14:11) mike: as soon s i hit send they drop10200 on Dow cash needs to hold or wedge breaks , stair step higher, need to clear 75.50 or mkt is topped.

(Jul 12-14:19) mike: The ES popped over 1075 and then reversed. The market has stair stepped higher so 1075.50 level needs to be cleared to avoid another drop. A wedge is formed and Dow cash 10200 needs to hold to keep from a reversal. be short on a bounce

(Jul 12-14:25) mike: turning audio on for a bit if having trouble, refresh your page and follow instructions below.

(Jul 12-14:58) mike: a 123 type top, but no damage done unless 72 area broken/ held. in a range, this acts like a short at 75, buy
(Jul 12-15:00) mike: audio off for the day. under 75 its vulnerable today
(Jul 12-15:05) mike: trapped between 72 and 75. sell up there, mkt out of gas

(Jul 12-15:18) mike: chop in front of earnings reports / buy the 72 area, sell 75 area. or avoid until tomorrow. if 75 exceeded, 78.50-79.50 key area -- 70.50 70.00 on bottom

(Jul 12-15:30) mike: i'm sorry but we had issues w/ the audio today. we'll get it worked out and ok to go on wednesday. again, my apologies.

Friday - July 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 09-09:42) mike: 68.50 rejected

(Jul 09-09:52) mike: nq topped at resist also

(Jul 09-10:06) mike: 68 needs to hold
(Jul 09-10:10) mike: a test of the high or token higher high, its a load the boat short

(Jul 09-10:21) mike: nq is the key, it must get over 1803 and not reverse again

(Jul 09-10:29) mike: The ES pulled back from 1068.25 resistance to 1065.00 and turned back up. The 1071.75-1072.50 area needs cleared or the market will get hit with a drop back towards 1066.50 or lower.

(Jul 09-10:32) mike: 68.50 needs to hold.

(Jul 09-10:47) mike: 1071.75-1072.50 must be cleared / held... it will be a top if 68.50 is broken

(Jul 09-10:53) mike: they topped at resist, pullback due, a pop to 70.50-71.50 area that reverses is a short.
(Jul 09-10:56) mike: be short under 72 , puts cheap,
(Jul 09-10:59) mike: The The 1071.75 level topped the move so far. If they bounce back and test the highs, its a good short. If 1066.50 is broken, downside could gather steam.

(Jul 09-11:13) mike: 6850-69.00 now resist to sell
(Jul 09-11:14) mike: 65 supp/ target 1

(Jul 09-11:27) mike: pressure on, nq is heavy and leader

(Jul 09-11:51) mike: the bounces don't have much gusto and are sold after a 1-2 minute stall - i'm selling pops, leaving longs alone unless obvious good setup

(Jul 09-11:59) mike: thats it. if nq pops up near 1802-03 and stalls, a good short

(Jul 09-12:17) mike: those should be tops at 69.25 and 1804 -- to avoid trouble they need to be cleared

(Jul 09-12:21) mike: 67 area is low end of this range, a break/ hold under needed to turn mkt down -- need a clean breakout either side to get anything going

(Jul 09-12:34) mike: staying short under 1805 nq, 70 es
(Jul 09-12:36) mike: must stay over 1800 nq, 67 es or fast dn
(Jul 09-12:40) mike: pop back, but acts like it can let go on side

(Jul 09-13:08) mike: The ES dropped to 1065.50 and turned back up. The market has traded sideways and is very choppy, but 1067 must hold to avoid a reversal. A test of the high should be reversed, otherwise we get one more push towards 1078-1079 to finish this rally.

(Jul 09-13:12) mike: thats been a struggle all day to get thru 1069.25 and its exceeded by 1 tick n dn they go. buyers beware up here

(Jul 09-13:37) mike: scalp mkt. , or pass until this breaks out. 67.50 supp on es, 1800-1799 on nq must hold or reverse quickly

(Jul 09-13:47) mike: bought some puts on qqqqs
(Jul 09-13:51) mike: if 69 is held , can try for 71-72 area , must stay over 69.00
(Jul 09-13:58) mike: over 1069 its ok, but if broken, thn a failed rally

(Jul 09-14:11) mike: topped, buy some puts if
(Jul 09-14:14) mike: a poor looking pattern. a bounce that fizzles near 70 a good short
(Jul 09-14:17) mike: The choppy action stayed over 1067 but just failed a breakout. Use a bounce that stalls near 1070 to short, as this is acting tired and on edge.

(Jul 09-14:34) mike: 69.75 close enough. should not be exceeded now

(Jul 09-14:44) mike: exceeded. a dip should hold 68.50 area , mkt trying to sucker in longs before good sized drop

(Jul 09-14:55) mike: The bounce to 1069.75 took the ES to 1068.25 but that was reversed and 1070 was exceeded. A pullback should hold the 1070-1069 area now to keep the upside in gear. The 1078-1079 area is key if they can stay over 1070 and a spot for a reversal.
(Jul 09-14:57) mike: 1071.75-1072.50, gotta push thru

(Jul 09-15:07) mike: 1 min chart 9/18 ema trend guide. 72. needs to hold, or next bounce a short
(Jul 09-15:12) mike: 72 key now, 1807 nq its leading higher

(Jul 09-15:28) mike: suggest puts on any bounce,
(Jul 09-15:29) mike: the 73 area ideal if reched again
(Jul 09-15:30) mike: a quick look at my indicators shows this giving 3-4 sell signals if we close like this

(Jul 09-16:03) mike: next decent move is a pullback. have a great w/e

Thursday - July 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)
 

(Jul 08-09:47) mike: 67 reversed
(Jul 08-09:48) mike: gap should fill

(Jul 08-10:07) mike: more bearish action unless 1064 exceeded / gap fill 59.75

(Jul 08-10:32) mike: The market opened higher and then the ES reversed after poking over 1067 resistance for a few seconds and dropped to 1060.00 so far. They just missed filling the gap, and still can if 1064.50 is not exceeded/ held. If 1060-1059 holds or is reversed the upside is still intact. If broken a top is in short term.

(Jul 08-10:40) mike: sell the bounces under 64.50 -- 10100 on Dow cash
(Jul 08-10:47) mike: watch for support near 10050 on dow cash ,

(Jul 08-10:54) mike: finally gap fill, if short lock in partial profit, 62.50-63.00 resist now
(Jul 08-10:55) mike: i'll turn on audio in about 10 minutes or so

(Jul 08-10:59) mike: The ES bounced to 1064.50 and finally filled the gap. The bounces failed, and 1064.50 is now a key resistance. The market is vulnerable under that and the 1067.50 could be the for this bear bounce.

(Jul 08-11:06) mike: 10050 on dow cash needs to hold. a drop to 1052 likely if not held
(Jul 08-11:08) mike: f the ES pops up to 60-.60.50 area, nq to 1793-94 area, it should be sold

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 08-11:42) mike: audio off for now. a short under 61
(Jul 08-11:45) mike: 54 area small supp , nq leader, 1786 resist there a short

(Jul 08-11:59) mike: 1047 on es and 1770 were breakout areas yesterday, now key supp . 60ema on 5 min char at 1054.75
(Jul 08-12:01) mike: 57.50 is last trapped from range break , still in trouble under it

(Jul 08-12:09) mike: The 1060.50-1061.00 area turned into resistance after rolling over from 1064.50 and the ES fell to 1055.25 so far. The ES needs to get back over 1060.50-1061.00 to avoid another push lower. The 1055 area will need to hold, otherwise a drop towards the 1047 area on the ES and/or 1770 area on the NQ is likely before bouncing back.

(Jul 08-12:13) mike: bounces were 4.50 points and 4 pts, now 3.50 pts... need to break that symmetry and bounce better

(Jul 08-12:36) mike: a pop to lower high here that reverses is a short
(Jul 08-12:37) mike: 4.50 pt bounce rejected, 3 times now, 60 shouldnt be exceeded

(Jul 08-12:59) mike: lower high reversed. mkt under pressure under 59-60

(Jul 08-13:10) mike: this should fail, but a pullback tht holds around 58.00-57.50 could be scalp long

(Jul 08-13:27) mike: The 1056.75 level held 3 times before getting thru the 1061 resistance. The 1059 area needs to hold on a dip, otherwise the bounce will be over.

(Jul 08-13:34) mike: cover if long off 59 area.... audio on in few min

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 08-14:22) mike: The bounce fizzled at 1062 on the ES and rolled over and the 1059 turned into resistance before the drop to new lows. Sell bounces as they are not holding and the action has been poor since the early reversal.

(Jul 08-14:28) mike: 1048.00-1047.50 should be tested on this leg down before a good bounce , as long as 1057.50-1058.00 not cleared

(Jul 08-14:35) mike: nq rejected 1781-82, es 57.50, still a short unless exceeded/ held

(Jul 08-14:53) mike: that should be it for the bounce, 57 pivotal supp / must hold on dip
(Jul 08-15:00) mike: wrong about that. supp at 58 should / must hold. / 61-62 area resist to sell 61-62 area resist to sell
(Jul 08-15:07) mike: these bounces not sticking, sell test of 60 , 62 shouldnt be exceeded

(Jul 08-15:27) mike: 62 not exceeded yet , but scratch this if u sold est of 60

(Jul 08-15:41) mike: test of high reversal , 63.00- 62.50 needs to hold now,

(Jul 08-16:01) mike: 63 good support. a good close. a setup like this morn should be in cards in the morning. have a good rest of the day

Wednesday - July 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 07-10:21) mike: 35.50 barely exceeded , 1754.50-1755.50 nq rejected. a32 supp

(Jul 07-10:28) mike: The market rallied from the open and the 1035.50 on ES and the 1754.50-1755.50 zone on the NQ were tested. That could be it for this bounce if the 1032 area is broken. The key support is at 1027 area and should/ must hold.

(Jul 07-10:42) mike: nq dbl top at resist
(Jul 07-10:44) mike: 35 area small supp

(Jul 07-10:55) mike: 43.50-44.00 is a key resist just above. 38 now needs to hold on pullback

(Jul 07-11:02) mike: The ES held at 1032.50 and ran up 1041.75 so far. There is key resistance around the 1043.50-1044.00 area, then at 1048 if that 1044 is pushed thru. The 1038 area needs to hold to stay in trend up mode.

(Jul 07-11:09) mike: mkt getting a bit tired, nq needs to stay over 1757
(Jul 07-11:11) mike: prairie dog on nq ,
(Jul 07-11:14) mike: that should be it for the upside for awhile

(Jul 07-11:21) mike: The upside ran out of steam, and the steady uptrend was broken with the NQ leading the way so far. This looks like an oversold bounce, and a decent pullback should occur before another rally attempt. The 1032 area will be key if tested, it must hold or quickly reverse on a test to avoid a reversal.

(Jul 07-11:38) mike: 39.50 should hold, but the 36.50-35.50 area is going to be pivotal if deeper pullback.
(Jul 07-11:41) mike: 123 top, a short on a pop up

(Jul 07-11:51) mike: a break/ hold 36.50 puts pressure on to 1032.50-1032.00 area
(Jul 07-11:57) mike: The ES made a 123 / double top and broke 1038 (now resistance) so this could go towards 1032.50-1032.00 as a key support. If not held, then 1028-1027 would be next.

(Jul 07-12:23) mike: pops sold. drops find buyers / nq needs to get going up here, or a decent quick drop likely
(Jul 07-12:28) mike: scalp only , tight stop too
(Jul 07-12:32) mike: pullback to 38.50-38.00 should hold to stay in this range

(Jul 07-12:51) mike: The pullback held at 1035.75 and now that 1036.00-1035.50 area should be pivotal. As long as that area holds on a pullback, along with the 9850 area on Dow cash, the market avoids trouble and the rally continues. If broken, we'll have another failed rally. The 1043.50-1044.00 area is good resistance if the market can push thru the double top at 1041.50 area.

(Jul 07-13:19) mike: 43 is tend up supp, 41 should be key on a pullback now.

(Jul 07-13:28) mike: The ES broke and held 1043.50 and as long as that holds the 1048 area could be in the cards. If broken, 1041 should hold or else the market is reversing.

(Jul 07-13:35) mike: must bounce here, or topped

(Jul 07-13:48) mike: 1043 and 9900 on Dow cash need to hold now

(Jul 07-14:01) mike: 48-50 could be reversed... 43.00-42.50 is ''must hold'' now,

(Jul 07-14:18) mike: nq needs to get over 1770 and es over 48 soon, or a reversal to 43 area likely

(Jul 07-14:35) mike: 43.00-42.50 must hold or another failed rally . 47.50-48.00 now good resist. 1770 on nq

(Jul 07-15:07) mike: that should be it for this move, a test should be rejected if this is a one day affair. 45 now a key supp area

(Jul 07-15:18) mike: small pullbacks all day but for fall from 41.75 to 35.75 around noon -- a 2.50-3.00 pt dip should hold or things change.

(Jul 07-15:33) mike: 52.50 is 38.2 retrace from 1127.50 high on 6/21 to 1006 low
(Jul 07-15:34) mike: 50 is supp now.

(Jul 07-15:59) mike: 57.50-58.50 strong resist. then 62.50 -- careful w/ new longs up here
(Jul 07-16:01) mike: have a good rest of the day. watch that zone after hours. 53.00-5250 supp

Tuesday - July 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 06-10:09) mike: 34 needs to hold. 37.70-38.00 resist

(Jul 06-10:19) mike: thats it for a bit on the upside, 34 needs to hold

(Jul 06-10:26) mike: The ES opened up 17 points and after a dip they ran up to 1038.50. That should be hard to get through, but if broken then 1044 area is next and a key hurdle today. The 1034 area is the first support, but the 1028 area is the key area and must hold to avoid trouble today.

(Jul 06-10:43) mike: 34 held , but 123 top unless 37 is exceeded here

(Jul 06-11:12) mike: the ES needs to clear 36 and hold there to avoid rolling over

(Jul 06-11:24) mike: should test 31.25 , must hold , 35 resist

(Jul 06-11:36) mike: The ES bounced off of 1034.25 and reached 1037.00 and reversed. The NQ made a 123 top up at the 1762 area at the same time and the pullback was steady down to the opening range for the ES and 9800 on the Dow cash. If those lows are not held, then 1028-1027 would be next. A break/ hold over 1035 resistance is needed to avoid another push lower now.

(Jul 06-11:49) mike: 31.25 was met , now a turn dn from just under 35.00. still vulnerable under 35

(Jul 06-12:13) mike: no hold over 35,

(Jul 06-12:21) mike: if they hold here n bounce to 33.50- 34.00 then stall, a drop thru the low should occur

(Jul 06-12:27) mike: 28-27 will be key. sell the bounces. they did top this morn and struggling
(Jul 06-12:29) mike: 32.00-32.50 resist now

(Jul 06-12:43) mike: The ES bounced to 1034.50, just under 1035 updated resistance, and dropped to the 1027 support so far. The NQ is leading the market lower, and it has good resistance at 1752 now, and 1032 on the ES. Shorts still better odds under that resistance.

(Jul 06-12:49) mike: i'll turn on audio in a few minutes - stay shorts for now. looks like 29 bow pivotal resist

audio...audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 06-13:34) mike: audio off. 25.50 should hold if going higher, 27.50-28.00 resist 1
(Jul 06-13:39) mike: just sell bounces under 27.50-28.50

(Jul 06-13:42) mike: 20.25-19.50 small supp
(Jul 06-13:46) mike: The 1027.50 level turned in to good resistance after falling to 1024 and that is now key resistance on a bounce. The 1019.50 is small support, then down to the 1012 area.

(Jul 06-14:02) mike: 21.50 minor, 24.00-24.50 good resist now.

(Jul 06-14:13) mike: 21.50 minor r rejected, 1012.50 next

(Jul 06-14:21) mike: 1019.50-1020.25 on ES, 9700 on Dow cash, need cleared/ held on a pullback to turn trends

(Jul 06-14:36) mike: 20.25-19.50 supp now. must hold that . 1024 area resist

(Jul 06-14:44) mike: The ES reached 1015.50 and turned back up, and must stay over 1020.25-1019.50 to avoid another break and test of the lows. The 1024 area is key resistance to clear/ hold to avoid a drop.

audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 06-15:07) mike: audio off now

(Jul 06-15:08) mike: 19.50-20.00 resist now.

(Jul 06-15:21) mike: fyi, i miscalculated time the high was made. 19.50-20.00 its very bearish if close under it

(Jul 06-15:47) mike: a close over 23-24 area key hurdle. have a good day

Friday - July 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 02-09:45) mike: early strength sold, 1020 supp
(Jul 02-09:46) mike: 24.00 then 21.50-21.00 supp

(Jul 02-09:56) mike: 21 supp hit, 24 now resist

(Jul 02-10:29) mike: bounces still are ''run up, stall, drop'' -- 1024.50 pivotal this morning

(Jul 02-10:53) mike: staying under 24.50 is bearish. 9700 on do cash has been support. , must hold or the mkt can fall apart again

(Jul 02-11:00) mike: 22.25 small resist .
(Jul 02-11:07) mike: 21.50 resist/ pivotal

(Jul 02-12:12) mike: 1012.00-1011.50 good supp. stay over that we can rally back to 1020 resist / a dip here needs to turn up from 16 to look good

(Jul 02-12:20) mike: wedge pattern broke, a bounce a short , esp near 16.50- 17 that fails

(Jul 02-12:41) mike: 17 reversed . scalpers mkt here.

(Jul 02-13:06) mike: 13.50-14.00 resist

(Jul 02-14:26) mike: the 1017.50-1018.50 area is key area to get over and hold. . 9650 on dow cash is supp, must hold

(Jul 02-14:40) mike: that 17-18 is key to upside. if exceeded, 1024 next. if 1012.50-1011.50 tested, it will reversal area - have a great weekend - see you on tuesday

I was out today, Thursday, July 1st for dental surgery so I did not get Mike's daily log . I'm sorry for the inconvenience. ~ Julie

Wednesday - June 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 30-09:38) mike: 33 supp key now

(Jun 30-09:51) mike: 1040 needs to be held
(Jun 30-09:55) mike: pullback timeframe

(Jun 30-10:11) mike: The ES turned up from the 1033.00-1032.50 support, and sprinted to 1042.50 and stalled out. That 1033.25 low must hold, or the 1028 area will be tested. The 1044.00-1044.50 area needs to be cleared still to change the bigger trends.

(Jun 30-10:23) mike: they lost the good bid, look to short the pop ups under 40.50 area

(Jun 30-10:31) mike: 38 area is key now. staying over is bullish
(Jun 30-10:33) mike: 38 must hold. must pop over 40 and hold/ not reverse to get upside going

(Jun 30-10:47) mike: 39.50-40.50 resist here
(Jun 30-10:50) mike: 39.50 rejected, 35.50-34.50 supp

(Jun 30-11:02) mike: 39 on ES and 1767 on NQ is small resist. dips quickly reversed, 9850 on Dow cash is the good supp area in this range.

(Jun 30-11:14) mike: The market has chopped around after the early move. Per last night's update, the market should bounce but still have trouble holding gains. As long as the 1036 area on the ES is held, the market will be ok to buy, but don't overstay as there is a lot of work to do to move higher.

(Jun 30-11:36) mike: 42 is key, and 9900 on dow cash
(Jun 30-11:36) mike: i'll turn on audio in about 30 min or so
(Jun 30-11:39) mike: must stay over 40 to keep uptrend now
(Jun 30-11:43) mike: 44.50 key

(Jun 30-12:02) mike: sell a pop, 42.50 area or better, stop 44... thats a top for now
(Jun 30-12:05) mike: The bounce failed just under the 1044.00-1044.50 zone and that should be a top for now, especially if 1040 is broken.

(Jun 30-12:40) mike: this is a scalp mkt , the mkt is vulnerable

(Jun 30-12:50) mike: we're above the 36 supp, but the mkt is a short the bounce now , 41 and 1771 resist

(Jun 30-13:01) mike: The ES broke 1040 on the way to 1038.25 and bounced. The ES made its low at initial support and its high at the 2nd resistance so the high/ low could be in... but for now the ES is vulnerable under the 1042 area.

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 30-13:33) mike: sell under 40.00-40.

(Jun 30-14:13) mike: NQ leader, sell bounce 1768 , es should test 66.60-66.00 morning low are

(Jun 30-14:27) mike: 36 area met, cover shorts if you were in on retest if not already out

(Jun 30-14:43) mike: slinky patterns , the 38.50 now key supp

(Jun 30-14:56) mike: a dbl bottom on test of that 36 area - must hold over it now

(Jun 30-15:15) mike: same poor action despite oversold. 39-40 resist

(Jun 30-15:23) mike: The ES broke 1035 by 1 tick and turned up. The bounces still are not holding though, so 1038.50-1039.00 needs to be exceeded and held to change the "sell the bounces" mood.

(Jun 30-15:29) mike: 35 now good resist

(Jun 30-15:38) mike: 1028.50-1027.75 should be seen
(Jun 30-15:40) mike: 32.50-33 good resist now
(Jun 30-15:46) mike: 1022 key, then 1018/

(Jun 30-15:52) mike: 29-30 good resist, must be exceeded held
(Jun 30-15:52) mike: enjoy rest of your day

Tuesday - June 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 29-09:40) mike: 48.50-47.50 supp ,

(Jun 29-09:49) mike: its bearish unless 1052.50-1053.00 is exceeded / held

(Jun 29-10:01) mike: 1038 next supp 1047-48 resist

(Jun 29-10:15) mike: 47-48 should be pivotal this morn
(Jun 29-10:16) mike: The 1047-1048 area needs to be exceeded to dent the downside momentum. The 1038 area must hold or the 1032 area would be a reversal area.

(Jun 29-10:25) mike: under 44, press on
(Jun 29-10:28) mike: should test 38 before any decent bounce attempt.
(Jun 29-10:33) mike: feeble bounce off 38 area, , 1042 resist, then 44 area. if not cleared 32.50-32.00 area would be next.

(Jun 29-10:39) mike: 42 .25 bounce high... need to break/ hold over that to arrest downside momentum

(Jun 29-11:14) mike: The 1038 area was reversed, and the break/ hold over the 1042 area was a plus. Unless the 1042 area is broken, the market will be "okay" but this bounce shouldn't get past 1052-1053 without some trouble.

(Jun 29-11:28) mike: a bounce is a short, the 47 should be good trend resist

(Jun 29-12:12) mike: 4150 now pivotal - a test is a short
(Jun 29-12:16) mike: ES hasn't spent much time under 1040 -- if held, test/ break of the lows. the 42 area is resist

(Jun 29-12:23) mike: might be a scalp long at 1040 if tested again. the Vix is up 15%, Trin over 3.00..... bearish intraday, but under regular conditions a reversal and snap back bounce is good odds.
(Jun 29-12:25) mike: this should fizzle out under 45 and pull back

(Jun 29-12:40) mike: this could give ay here, NQ needs to get over 1777 and stick

(Jun 29-12:56) mike: nq reverse 1777.50. sideways now, but vulnerable under 53
(Jun 29-12:58) mike: The ES bounced to the 1047-1048 area and reversed, so trend down unless that's exceeded.

(Jun 29-13:14) mike: the ES needs to get over 43 at least, 45 really, and then push higher, then hold around 1043 on a ''dip'' and go up right away...... otherwise drift lower towards the 38 area or 32 if broken

(Jun 29-13:28) mike: staying under 1040, need to get over and not reverse

(Jun 29-13:37) mike: 1040 was touched, then pressure was back on to break to lowr low,. the cigar pattern (see e-book for cigar pattern) broken, 39.50-40.50 now resist

(Jun 29-13:51) mike: key area here, the dow cash could make a double bottom at 9850 if there's 1 more push lower tht reverses. nq is off 65 points, due a bounce and a stronger rally if they get turned around and make a run higher towards 1047-1048 on ES.

(Jun 29-14:04) mike: 39.75-39.25 should/ must hold now or still unable to hold on to gains and test lows

(Jun 29-14:12) mike: After the last update the market made new lows for the day, with the ES reversing from 1036.25. That could be a low, but the upside will not be easy even if it is. That 11047-1048 area is the big hurdle to clear and hold, and the 1040 area needs to hold on a pullback now.

(Jun 29-14:58) mike: unless you are nimble, avoid. or use a pop up that stalls under 44 to sell for now

(Jun 29-15:12) mike: they should break dn

(Jun 29-15:23) mike: 38 good resist now , 1028-1027 next supp

(Jun 29-15:46) mike: 27.75 , then a ways lower , teens
(Jun 29-15:48) mike: the bounce failed at 37.50, just under break dn level, good pic of ''last trapped'' 38 key now

(Jun 29-16:07) mike: a decent bounce should be in the cards before another drop, have a nice rest of the day

Monday - June 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 28-09:40) mike: 74.00-74.50 resist

(Jun 28-09:51) mike: 71.50 resist

(Jun 28-10:08) mike: nq will need to get over 1834 and hold to change trend

(Jun 28-10:19) mike: The ES popped up to 1076.50 on the open and was immediately sold and a drop to 1066.50 happened in the first 30 minutes. The NQ is dragging the market down and it must break/ hold 1834 area to get out of trouble this morning.

(Jun 28-10:29) mike: mkt turns in first 20-40 min is common. right now, a dip needs to hold the 1070.50-1069.50 zone, or NQ break/ hold 1834

(Jun 28-10:34) mike: nq failed at 1834 resist. sell pop up w tight stop

(Jun 28-10:42) mike: scratch any shorts for now
(Jun 28-10:45) mike: 1069.25 held 3 times and a pivotal supp now. they're ok over 1069.25 but wedge breaks if 6925 not held

(Jun 28-10:54) mike: 72.50-72.00 now supp, must hold there
(Jun 28-10:58) mike: The lows made in the first 30 minutes this morning are now very key support areas. The NQ broke out over 1834 and that now must hold, along with the 1072 area on the ES to avoid a topping pattern now.

(Jun 28-11:03) mike: key areas . 76 and 1844
(Jun 28-11:06) mike: 74.50 trend supp now , 1842 on nq

(Jun 28-11:15) mike: stalling a bit but trends stay up unless 75.50 breaks. a hold over 76.50 brings short covering move
(Jun 28-11:19) mike: a move to 1073.50 is as far as it goes, or topped

(Jun 28-11:30) mike: held just over 73.50. thats key to hold now. 79.50-80.25 area next resist

(Jun 28-11:41) mike: 76 needs to hold, no damage done unless broken.

(Jun 28-11:56) mike: topped if 74.50-74.00 not held. a

(Jun 28-12:05) mike: 76 a short. longs trapped above, upside very limited

(Jun 28-12:15) mike: The ES topped just under the 1079.00-1079.50 initial resistance and that was it for the bounce so far. The 1076.50 area should be good resistance on a bounce. If that is not exceeded/ held then the market is back in trouble.

(Jun 28-12:58) mike: if they test 73 area, would need quick turn back up, or they start to roll over

(Jun 28-13:03) mike: The ES bounced back to the 1075 area twice and was rejected, and since the bounces are not holding stay with selling the bounces under 1075 on ES and 1845 area on the NQ.

(Jun 28-13:07) mike: could come un glued staying under 73.00-73.50

(Jun 28-13:21) mike: 73 rejected, the 1069 must hld, reverse , or test/break 66.50 low

(Jun 28-13:30) mike: 72.50-73.00 resist, pivotal. 1840 on nq, i'll turn audio on in a few min
(Jun 28-13:33) mike: audio on for a bit

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 28-13:48) mike: if 72.50 exceeded/ held then can get out of trouble.

(Jun 28-14:10) mike: look for reversal if 75 area reached and move stalls. the 72.50 now key supp

(Jun 28-14:23) mike: The 1072.50 level was broken and held on a pullback, and the 1075 level was missed by 1 tick so far. That 1072.50 area is pivotal this afternoon. As long as that holds, the market will be in an uptrend and no harm done, just be on alert for a sell-off if 1077-1078 is tested and the move reverses.

(Jun 28-14:29) mike: shorting under 75 , it stuck , if 72.50 breaks

(Jun 28-14:33) mike: 72.50 quickly reversed, but lots of resist at 74.50-75.00 to sell against -

(Jun 28-15:19) mike: if you sold against the 77-78 area / its a top, a lower high now aother scalp short

(Jun 28-15:53) mike: no stick to bounces. enjoy the rest of your day.

Thursday - June 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 24-09:55) mike: nq needs to get over 1860 and hold to turn trends,
(Jun 24-09:58) mike: 1075.50-1074.50 must hold or the 1072 , maybe 1068-67

(Jun 24-10:13) mike: need a hold over 79.50-80.00

(Jun 24-10:34) mike: The 1075.50-1074.50 zone was quickly reversed 30 minutes into trading and is a key support area now. Bounces are failing so unless 1081.50-1082.00 area is exceeded and held on a pullback the market is vulnerable and could drop to lower lows.

(Jun 24-10:41) mike: a little wedge break,

(Jun 24-10:45) mike: 1072, then 68-67 supp

(Jun 24-10:57) mike: we got the new lows, bounced off 72 area, but stay with short on bounces, a move to 68-67 area unless 77 is broken/ held

(Jun 24-11:19) mike: 1848 on nq is the key, need to break hold over to get a change

(Jun 24-11:53) mike: 20ema on 5 min there a guide so far, 1075.50 now , 73.50 needs to hold here

(Jun 24-12:01) mike: buy dip that holds near 75
(Jun 24-12:05) mike: watch 79.50-80.00 reversal if reached , need to hold 75.50 now on the dip
(Jun 24-12:10) mike: 75.75 low, this will fail
(Jun 24-12:11) mike: nq has strong / key resist at 1858 area. a transition zone. it must clear and hold or back down they go

(Jun 24-12:18) mike: The ES dropped to lower low then turned up from 1069.50, but so far the bounce failed at 1077.75. Unless that level and 1958 on the NQ are exceeded/ held the market remains vulnerable. A test of the lows that reverses would set up a good trade on the long side, but the market get back in trouble if 1075 is not held.

(Jun 24-12:56) mike: pivotal spot here at 75

(Jun 24-13:34) mike: THAT 77.50-78.50 is the key/ pivotal area on upside. the dips are holding, bounces failing... if they don't reject it again here soon, 81.50-83.00 could be seen

(Jun 24-13:44) mike: they are a good short if 1 more pop up to 79.50-80.50 area

(Jun 24-13:59) mike: the quick run ups were being sold as soon as they stalled out a few seconds , same w/ dips. they caught a decent bid on this move, but 79.50 now must hold to keep upside going

(Jun 24-14:08) mike: The 1077.75 area on ES and 1858 on the NQ were broken and held/ reversed up from those on a dip but the move looks tired and 1079.50 must hold to avoid turning back down.

(Jun 24-14:15) mike: that should be a top, if you sold 79.50-80.50 stop at 82 and don't marry it. if bounce to a lower high and reverse its 123 top

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 24-14:58) mike: 68-67 may e seen here, 74 resist now

(Jun 24-15:20) mike: The 1079.50 broke and the downside picked up steam and reached the 1068-1067 area, but ES must get over 1071 to take a bit of pressure off.

(Jun 24-15:45) mike: ugly action all week since rejecting 1114.50 monday morn... no good reason yet to buy. maybe in the morning. have a great rest of the day.

Wednesday - June 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 23-09:26) mike: 97.50-98.00 reversal earlier, good resist

(Jun 23-10:05) mike: 78-77 area next , just sell bounces for now

(Jun 23-10:15) mike: The market opened slightly higher but couldn't hold and the ES dropped to 1087.50 support 15 minutes in. The home sales number was horrible, and they dropped tp 1080 so far. The 1087.50-1088.50 area should offer good resistance. A test of 1075.50-1074.50 is in the cards if the 1080 level is broken and not reversed quickly.

(Jun 23-11:00) mike: that should be it for the bounce, 87.50-88.50 resist. nq leading it must hold 1868 or drop to 64-62

(Jun 23-11:31) mike: MKT has a decent bid nq is key, it hld 64 on dip. mkt ok unless that breaks
(Jun 23-11:35) mike: hold on need to get over 87.50
(Jun 23-11:36) mike: a break of 1864 on nq needed to get push lower
(Jun 23-11:38) mike: The ES reached 1087.50 and backed off. The market is vulnerable unless cleared still.
(Jun 23-11:44) mike: need a push under 84 that isn't quickly reversed now , or nq break 1865-64

(Jun 23-12:16) mike: if short you might want to lock in some profit in here ..

(Jun 23-12:32) mike: i would turn on audio, but not much to say. maybe after the fed release
(Jun 23-12:35) mike: 20 ema on 5 min chart [use day session, 930 am open to 415pm settlement] has been a lid all morn, must be cleared/ held here

(Jun 23-12:53) mike: 87.50-88.50 , a break hold gets em to 89.50-91.00 area, dip to 85.50-85.00 now supp...

(Jun 23-13:02) mike: no reversal unless 85.50 broken. nq a better long since holding 1864

(Jun 23-13:19) mike: not buying here, sell against 87.50-88.50 resist unless broken held

(Jun 23-13:25) mike: The ES bounced off 1082.50 and then rallied to the 1087.50-1088.50 resistance and backed off twice. If 1085.50 is broken then a test of the 1082-1081 is likely in front of the Fed.

(Jun 23-14:00) mike: after the release we should get an up/ down/ up [or vise versa] then a trend should start after 15-20 minutes or so

(Jun 23-14:11) mike: audio on after the fed release , tho no trades given unless time for all to get on a good setup, not fast moves where cant get filled

(Jun 23-14:22) mike: down, up, down.. sell under the high

(Jun 23-14:36) mike: 92.50 need to hold

(Jun 23-14:55) mike: 9090.60 - 91.00 needs cleared to avoid more drop

(Jun 23-15:04) mike: The ES dropped to 1084.25 then jumped to 1095.50 and reversed, the bounces will not stick so be short under the 1092 area basis
ES.

(Jun 23-15:26) mike: need to stay over 88.50 es, 1872 on nq , or they reverse down again -- 83.50-82.50 key supp now

(Jun 23-15:42) mike: 1874 nq is the key area. 89.50 es , have a good rest of the day

Tuesday - June 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 22-09:49) mike: 1114.50-1115.00 small short
(Jun 22-09:51) mike: 1112.50-1112.0 small supp
(Jun 22-09:53) mike: scalp trade before housing data w/ 1 trailer

(Jun 22-10:06) mike: 1111.00-1111.50 good resist now

(Jun 22-10:17) mike: The early strength was reversed from the 1114.50-1115.00 initial resistance and dropped to 1107.00 so far. The 1111.25-1111.75 area needs cleared/ held or 1102-1101 could be seen this morning.

(Jun 22-10:19) mike: stay with this to 1102-1101 area. 1110 now resist
(Jun 22-10:22) mike: 1103 would be symmetry and a dbl bottom, possibly. a bounce must occur there, or things are breaking down
(Jun 22-10:31) mike: 1108.50 is pivotal this morn. only a hold over that gets mkt out of trouble for a bit

(Jun 22-10:43) mike: bounces have been 3 points. a move over 1107.75 that holds will arrest dnside momentum here

(Jun 22-10:59) mike: 08.00 needs to hold . watch tick extremes on these moves for turns

(Jun 22-11:16) mike: the ES hasn't stayed under 1105 very long as shorts cover there. pressure on if they go under 1105 and not reverse quickly. otherwise they keep chopping around

(Jun 22-11:38) mike: 1109.00-1108.50 good supp now, needs to hold on pullback, it should . 14.50-15.00 still key resist to break/ hold

(Jun 22-11:59) mike: a little 123 there, if 1108.50 broken, short the next bounce or now near 1111.00-1111.50, tight stop

(Jun 22-12:09) mike: if short lock in profits at 09.50 or better on part at least

(Jun 22-12:36) mike: The bounce to 1112.75 was rejected and another little 123 top formed and the market is backing off. We are getting 2 sided action, but given the sell signals and a market unable to hold gains, the bounces are better opportunities on short side under 1111, and especially the 1114.50-1115.00 initial resistance and early high area.

(Jun 22-12:40) mike: looks like 1108.50-1109.00 is going to be pivotal still

(Jun 22-12:56) mike: this is winding tighter , if 1109 is sold, and then 1107 breaks then 1105 tested

(Jun 22-13:23) mike: watch nq at 1907-1906, shorts trapped, if broken they drop hard

(Jun 22-13:32) mike: The market is wound tight so unless the 1108.50-1109.50 area on the ES and 1908-1910 on the NQ are exceeded/ held the market could get hit pretty hard this afternoon.

(Jun 22-13:36) mike: 1107.00-1107.50 resist now -- 1105 =must hold= or its to 1102 then 1098-1097

(Jun 22-13:51) mike: a move with some gusto off 1105 again. and dbl bottoms. but, the mkt has acted poorly, and since this is still 2 sided, a dip should now hold near 06.50 to avoids break down

(Jun 22-13:54) mike: just get short on bounces, action poor

(Jun 22-14:04) mike: finally a hold under 1105, resist now

(Jun 22-14:24) mike: ounce to the old supp / break area stalled should retest 1102-1101 major area

(Jun 22-14:42) mike: The ES broke the 1105 area, then bounced back for a nice reentry (if not short) and has reached the 1102.00-1100.75 zone. Still, unless they get over 1105.50 and hold on a dip the downside has more to go, 1097.75 then 1093-1092 if the downside can not reverse.

(Jun 22-14:58) mike: 1093.00 met, 1098 resist now

(Jun 22-15:13) mike: if 93-92 not held, then 88-87 next. 1098 now resist
(Jun 22-15:16) mike: The ES dropped to the 1092.50-1091.50 zone and held, but 1098 needs cleared and then held on a dip to turn this around.

(Jun 22-15:27) mike: avoid longs. even if they bounce, it will only set a nice short
(Jun 22-15:29) mike: 98 was rejected, and it needs cleared/ held or 88-87 area next

(Jun 22-15:40) mike: 94.50area small resist. have a great rest of the day

Monday - June 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 21-09:42) mike: huge gap a fade, 25 resist

(Jun 21-10:02) mike: 24.50-24.00 needs to hold , or reversal occurs.

(Jun 21-10:15) mike: 24 held , but a lower high that reverses is a sell up here
(Jun 21-10:16) mike: 26 should't hold if broken.
(Jun 21-10:18) mike: tht should be a top

(Jun 21-10:30) mike: The big gap up open was sold and they made a 123 top on the test of 1127.00 and turned down. The highs should be in for the morning, and the 1121-1120 area is small support, then 1117.50-1116.50 is a key support. Only a hold over 1125 gets em out of down trends for now.

(Jun 21-10:49) mike: they should break

(Jun 21-10:56) mike: 22 now trend down resist

(Jun 21-11:06) mike: nq 1920 looks like key area now, it must hold or will lead es towards 1117 area.
(Jun 21-11:13) mike: not any gusto to move off 1120 supp on es yet, nq 1920 held better and still a key area for hold or break lower again.

(Jun 21-11:45) mike: The dropped to 1120 but the bounce was not very strong, so unless 1124 is exceeded/ held the market remains vulnerable up here.

(Jun 21-11:50) mike: nq weaker and easier short

(Jun 21-12:03) mike: the 1120 supp needs to hold or 1117-1116 is good supp, should give bounce
(Jun 21-12:08) mike: 20.25-20.75 resist

(Jun 21-12:21) mike: tend dn r atg 20 now
(Jun 21-12:25) mike: if short from early , cover part 1117.50-1116.50 zone . 1120 trend resist now

(Jun 21-12:53) mike: 18.50 needed cleared/ then hold on dip, to get out of trend down mode
(Jun 21-12:58) mike: The 1120 level broke and held and the ES reached 1117.50-1116.50 support. To break the trend down action, the 1118 area needs to be exceeded and held on a dip. Should that occur then the 1124 area would be a key area to watch for a turn.

(Jun 21-13:09) mike: 21.50-22.50 resist on up move

(Jun 21-13:23) mike: no oomph, follow thru on bounce... but 1118 held. getting tricky..i will turn audio on for a bit starting in 5 minutes or so
(Jun 21-13:28) mike: audio on for a little bit

(Jun 21-13:42) mike: 1117.50-1118.50 trend dn resist now
(Jun 21-13:42) mike: should not be exceeded

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 21-14:32) mike: nq rejected 1919 , a little 123 top, and 1120 not cleared. still a short under 1120 and 1920 nq

(Jun 21-14:55) mike: The ES bounced to 1119.50 and turned back down. The lows were tested but now 1117-1118 is good resistance that should be reversed if tested. The low should come around 3:30 or at the close. The 1112.50-1112.00 area must be held or more trouble.

(Jun 21-15:06) mike: 1450 trend resist, 1 min chart 18ema guide
(Jun 21-15:11) mike: ugly day despite being unchanged, a close dn here is bad news . 111001108.50 a key area

(Jun 21-15:28) mike: 1min 18 ema still guide

(Jun 21-15:39) mike: could bounce, but will be sold as a high for the rally in place, 1110 then 1114.50 resist if a pop

(Jun 21-15:42) mike: 1102-1101 a major area

Friday - June 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 18-09:40) mike: 1113.75-1114.25 / tight stop
(Jun 18-09:46) mike: no reversal unless 1110 broken / econ data at 10am , scalp out or tgt stop
(Jun 18-09:52) mike: 12.50 shouldnt be exceeded

(Jun 18-10:14) mike: The ES popped up to the 1113.75-1114.25 zone on the open and dropped to 1109.00 before turning back up. The lows made 30 minutes into the day and unless those are broken the bulls are still in charge. If broken, then a high should be in place.

(Jun 18-10:26) mike: they need to stay over 1111 now to avoid reversal. follow he nq its leading this up

(Jun 18-10:38) mike: 1116.50-1117.00 reached, a drop needs to hold 1114 area now

(Jun 18-10:57) mike: The ES pushed thru to the 1116.50-1117.00 zone and pulled back. The 1114.25-1113.75 zone is now support that must hold to keep the upside in gear.

(Jun 18-11:18) mike: thats it on upside, if they get a pop they shouldnt stick
(Jun 18-11:20) mike: if mkt still strong it should bounce here
(Jun 18-11:21) mike: 1115 good resist now

(Jun 18-11:33) mike: 1114.75 resist
(Jun 18-11:39) mike: 1114.50 now key, must be cleared held to change trend

(Jun 18-11:46) mike: 1111.25 small supp

(Jun 18-11:51) mike: The ES made a little 123 / double top at 1116.75 and 1114.50 was broken and held on a bounce. The move topped out for now unless a bounce get back over 1114.50 on the ES and also 1918 on the NQ and not quickly reverse.

(Jun 18-12:10) mike: NQ didn't get to 1918, ES took out resist by 1 tick no hold , its vulnerable under those

(Jun 18-12:29) mike: The ES popped up to 1114.75 and the NQ got to 1917.75 and they reversed and the market has rolled over. At this juncture, shorting bounces is better odds trade as the ES topped at a key resistance area, and each bounce has less momentum and are not holding.

(Jun 18-12:31) mike: should see 1108 , 1102 possible

(Jun 18-13:26) mike: they should pop towards 1114 if 1111.75 holds
(Jun 18-13:28) mike: not going to do it ,

(Jun 18-13:44) mike: buy program , tick extreme, 12.50 needs hold

(Jun 18-14:08) mike: After the last update the ES bounced off of 1110 while the NQ made a lower low at 1909.25 and they bounced back. That move was reversed after a breakout higher failed. Expect the bounces to fail. If the ES breaks under 1110 and is not quickly reversed, the pressure should be on and then 1108 would be next. The 1114 area needs to be cleared / held or the 1110 area needs to break/ hold to get out of potential trouble. Days after quarterly expiration can be turning points and with highs at resistance that could set up a poor Monday if not cleared today.

Next update is Monday morning. Have a nice weekend.

Thursday - June 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 17-9:49) mike: 1110.50 is pivotal

(Jun 17-10:01) mike: bounce should fail at/ under 1109

(Jun 17-10:05) mike: 1109.00 rejected. key area now to clear/ hold

(Jun 17-10:17) mike: The market opened at yesterday's highs and was sold and it has been trend down since. The ES needs to get over 1109 and hold on a pullback to avoid trouble. Sell bounces under that area for now.

(Jun 17-10:22) mike: 1106.50 resist now
(Jun 17-10:29) mike: 1105 needs cleared/ held - 1102 tested 3 times now, it must hold or 98-97

(Jun 17-10:41) mike: bottom possible
(Jun 17-10:43) mike: a good bid just under 1102, it must break and not quickly reverse. still upside is limited on a bounce

(Jun 17-10:46) mike: 1105.00-1105.50 need cleared / held to stop trend dn action. avoid longs

(Jun 17-11:12) mike: The ES dropped just under the 1102.50-1101.75 area on the ES and reversed 3 times, so no break down as long as that holds. Still, the upside should be difficult and it looks like the market is still vulnerable unless 1105.00-1105.50 is cleared and held on a pullback.

(Jun 17-11:20) mike: 1105.50 not held.. better supp at 1104 supp must hold. audio on in a few minutes

(Jun 17-11:28) mike: i'll turn on audio around noon, sorry . rigt now mkt ok unless 1104 breaks -- 1107.50-110800 resist

(Jun 17-11:50) mike: The ES got over 1105 and reached new resistance at 1107.50-1108.00 zone so far. That needs to be exceeded / held to get a run back towards 1111-1112 area. If it can not, the 1105 should be strong support, otherwise another test of 1102 could occur.

(Jun 17-12:08) mike: failed rally , but 1105.50 holding... scalpers mkt. audio for a little bit starting in 2 min

(Jun 17-12:19) mike: audio on for a bit, 1107 resist

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 17-12:36) mike: 1106.00-1106.50 rest

(Jun 17-12:44) mike: pressure on unless 1106. es and 1905 nq are exceeded / held

(Jun 17-12:56) mike: The 1108.00 level was quickly rejected, and 1105 broke, and 1103.50 was seen. Now the 1106.00 area needs to be cleared/ held to have a chance to push to 1108 again

(Jun 17-13:06) mike: both es and nq reject new resist. stay w short side under those

(Jun 17-13:21) mike: the mkt is getting comfortable at these prices, this could get legs, if 1106.00-110575 is held

(Jun 17-13:41) mike: as long as 1105 is holding, the mkt is ok . if broken, then a bounce after the break is a short

(Jun 17-14:04) mike: The market continues to find buying on the drops, and has made it back to the unchanged level. As long as the 1105 area holds, no damage is done, but if broken then the next bounce after the break would be sold.

(Jun 17-14:13) mike: 1108 supp now, should be tested

(Jun 17-14:19) mike: 1108 needs to give a bounce. if a pp to lower high is reversed, its a 123 type top

(Jun 17-14:34) mike: this bounce is a short if 1109-1110 tested, reversed

(Jun 17-14:46) mike: action turning bad, and bad pattern, get short if they can pop from 1105 here,, lot of reasons this is a top or very close to one

(Jun 17-14:51) mike: The ES ran up to 1110.50 and reversed, and we have a new range now it appears. If the 1109-1110 area is tested it would set up a great short the way the market is acting this afternoon. A break/ hold of 1102 would be bad news short term.

(Jun 17-15:06) mike: if 1105.50 not cleared, mkt is breaking dn again,

(Jun 17-15:15) mike: mkt lost its underlying bid, 98-97 is key

(Jun 17-15:21) mike: 2 min 15 sma guide

(Jun 17-15:37) mike: we have a big sideways range, a pullback needs to/ should hold at 1105, or else 1102 finally breaks.

(Jun 17-15:54) mike: fizzled out, 1 min
(Jun 17-15:55) mike: 9/18 ema trend guide still

(Jun 17-16:12) mike: last 30 min they run for the roses. nice comeback, 1120 could still be seen. enjoy the rest of your day.

Wednesday - June 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 16-09:38) mike: if you bought supp, get out 1106 r better

(Jun 16-09:48) mike: 110.75 was transition area, must be cleared/ held
(Jun 16-09:51) mike: 1101.75 transition number

(Jun 16-10:15) mike: topping pattern, 1105 must hold, a bounce should be sold under 1108.50
(Jun 16-10:22) mike: reversal from 07.75 , key resist now

(Jun 16-10:27) mike: The lower open turned up from just over 1102 on the ES and bounced to 1109.00 before stalling out. Per last night, the upside would be difficult so look for shorts on bounces, and see how the 1202 area does on a test.

(Jun 16-10:30) mike: 1105.50 area now resist

(Jun 16-10:45) mike: 1102 area held but 1106area should be a high if its going to break 1102

(Jun 16-10:51) mike: The ES bounced off of 1102.50 but the move doesn't have much gusto. A move over 1106 that sticks is needed to avoid a test/ break of the 1102 area and go to the 1098.00-1097.50 zone.

(Jun 16-11:03) mike: holding 1106.00-1105.50 a must,

(Jun 16-11:14) mike: 1106.00-1105.50 held , , high tested. 1107.50-1107.00 trend supp must hold to keep this upside going

(Jun 16-11:39) mike: The ES took out 1106.00, held 1105.75 on a dip, then went to 1110.75 so far. That's just under good resistance but it looks like the market will be ok unless 1108 is broken. A break could cause a reversal.

(Jun 16-11:48) mike: a 123 pattern , a high in for now

(Jun 16-12:15) mike: 1108 broke by 1 tick and turned up. mkt is sttill bullish unless 1111-1110 breaks

(Jun 16-12:24) mike: The 1108 level was broken by 1 tick and then the market turned back up and rallied to 1113.50 so far. As long as the 1111-1110 area is not broken/ held we still have uptrends and the 1116.75-1117.00 zone could be seen. Just be careful of a lower high that reverses up here, as it could set up a pullback.

(Jun 16-12:36) mike: 1110.50 held but if they test the 1112 level its a short.
(Jun 16-12:38) mike: the lower high / revrsal [123] was triggerd at 1112

(Jun 16-12:48) mike: the 1116 on sp500 cash is positive/ negative break line for the year up there too. 1111 now resist

(Jun 16-13:04) mike: if 1108.50 breaks, 1105-1104 next and it must hold/ reverse there to avoid 1202 again

(Jun 16-13:10) mike: The ES made a lower high at 1112.50 and turned down and caused a pullback to just over the 1107.75 support. If that level is broken and not quickly reversed, then we could revisit the key 1102 area for a 3rd time. On the other side, it the 1113 area is exceeded we get one more push towards 1117 to see if the market can hold its gains against the odds.

(Jun 16-13:50) mike: choppy, mkt coiling for a decent move, upside in gear as long as 1110 not broken.
(Jun 16-13:58) mike: 11.50-11.00 now supp. i'll turn on audio in few min

(Jun 16-14:04) mike: The ES held at 1108.50 on the pullback, and the market will be in decent shape unless 1111 is broken. If it is, then the trend up action could reverse.

audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....

(Jun 16-14:19) mike: i have to go for a bit, my apologies. 12.50 looks pivotal and 1909 on nq

(Jun 16-14:45) mike: 1113-ish , buy some puts for a scale in swing trade

(Jun 16-14:56) mike: scratch those puts. , or keep tight stop, no damage doe un les 1110 breaks
(Jun 16-14:58) mike: hmm. must get over 14 n stick now or topped

(Jun 16-15:10) mike: this could head south fast. sell a pop

(Jun 16-15:31) mike: The move off of 1108.50 took the ES to 1114.75, but 1111 broke and downside picked up steam. Short bounces, as this should be in trouble especially if 1102 is not held.

(Jun 16-15:37) mike: 1108.50-1109.50 a good cluster of resist now
(Jun 16-15:44) mike: resist was rejected, under pressure unless cleared
(Jun 16-15:44) mike: have a great rest of the day

Tuesday - June 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 15-09:34) mike: 1094.00-1094.50 key

(Jun 15-10:17) mike: 97 resist was rejected. if 88.00-87.50 tested it should reverse up. if not, then mkt in trouble

(Jun 15-10:26) mike: The ES ran up to 1097.00 resistance and backed off to 1092.50 so far. The ES needs to stay over 1093-1092 to stay out of trouble, and possibly go to test the top of the range.

(Jun 15-10:51) mike: 95 needs to hold now. stalling, top of range just 4 points higher

(Jun 15-11:03) mike: 97.00-96.50 now trend supp , need to stay over or a dbl top here

(Jun 15-11:13) mike: a 123 top can set up if high tested/ reversed

(Jun 15-11:31) mike: The NQ lead the market higher and it double topped at 1876 so far, and the ES made a 123 top at 1095.50. If the 1096.50 area is broken, then the trends could turn down, but good support is at 1093-1092 and that will hold unless the market up if tested.

(Jun 15-11:55) mike: mkt has a better tone today so far. 98.50 supp

(Jun 15-12:10) mike: 99.50 trend supp must hold -- right at key resist up here
(Jun 15-12:15) mike: 99.50 holds keeps upside from reversal. key supp now, if broken 98 next supp area should hold. 1102 area top of big range , then 1108 area if keeps going

(Jun 15-12:32) mike: The ES tested 1102, the top of the big range, and backed off. Another failure up here could be terminal. The 1098.50-1098.00 area should/ must hold if the market is going to break out higher.

(Jun 15-12:39) mike: small short position w/ stop just a bit over the highs

(Jun 15-12:57) mike: The ES went to 1098.25 and held after coming off of a test of the top of the big range. However unless the 1102 area is exceeded soon, and/or 1098 breaks, then it could be like yesterday and drop pretty hard. A break/ hold over 1102 would do the opposite and trigger buying most likely.

(Jun 15-13:11) mike: battle at key resist. if 98 area breaks, no quick reversal, then pressure in on, but not until

(Jun 15-13:21) mike: 1102 needs to hold now, 98.50-98.00 is key supp, 10300 dow cash too

(Jun 15-13:39) mike: The ES pushed through 1102 after reversing up from 1098.75 keeping the trend up move in gear. As long as 1102 is held, the market in good shape, but if broken then we could have a failure and then the 1098.50-1098.00 area would be the key support to avoid trouble.

(Jun 15-13:42) mike: this is acting a bit tired now, careful buying up here

(Jun 15-13:52) mike: 1102 held , if broken we could see bids pulled and mkt pullback to 1100-1098.50 area

(Jun 15-14:03) mike: 1105.50-1006.00 net resist, then 1111-1112

(Jun 15-14:12) mike: The ES held at 1102.00 and the trend up move continues. There is small resistance at the 1105.50-1106.00 area, then the 1111-1112 area is next big resistance. If 1102 is broken, and not quickly reversed, then the trend up move is over. The tone is much different that lately, so stay with the trend unless broken up to the 1111-1112 area.

(Jun 15-14:15) mike: 04.50-04.00 trend supp now.
(Jun 15-14:20) mike: very good bid, getting parabolic, watch for reversal / pullback from 1108, 1111-1112 area might not be seen today

(Jun 15-14:31) mike: that might be it, 1105.50-1105.00 area must hold

(Jun 15-14:54) mike: 1105 keeps trend up going. a push to 10400 on dow cash could be a road block if the they hold up

(Jun 15-15:36) mike: low was made 5 minutes in, the high can come w/ 5 min left. or 1111-1112 area.

(Jun 15-15:54) mike: this area good resist. but against good trend, have a good rest of the day.

(Jun 15-15:56) mike: 1111-1112 zone w/ 5 minutes left. tht is it for the move today anyhow , take care

Monday - June 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 14-09:45) mike: a hold under 94 bearish

(Jun 14-09:57) mike: should test 88 ,

(Jun 14-10:04) mike: dow cash supp 10250 - mkt ok unless broken. normally a reversal in this time frame, but only a break of these lows turns trend

(Jun 14-10:08) mike: 123 tops

(Jun 14-10:16) mike: no follow thru on dip. mkt is in rally mode over 93-92 zone. they shouldn't break that or a high will be in
(Jun 14-10:35) mike: The ES opened up 10.75 points at 1096.25 and that was sold down to 1091.50 before turning back up. The 1097.75-1098.50 area was rejectes, and that is the last big hurdle before getting to the top of the range. The 1093-1092 area needs to hold or a test of 1088 or lower is likely.

(Jun 14-10:37) mike: 94.50 is a pivotal area, needs to hold here

(Jun 14-10:46) mike: 97.50 is a top, resist at 96, 1870 nq

(Jun 14-10:52) mike: the mkt still has a good bid on drops, that 94 is still the pivotal area tht must break to turn mkt down.. careful short until/ unless broken

(Jun 14-11:09) mike: 9700-96.50 supp now,

(Jun 14-11:14) mike: 98.50-98.00 now supp, if 98 breaks then a bounce after would be sold..

(Jun 14-11:22) mike: 99.00-98.50 is trend up supp, go with 18ema on 1 min chart for trend up supp

(Jun 14-11:29) mike: The ES pulled back to 1094.00 and that brought in buying and the ES is up against major resistance short term. If 1102 is tested, it should set up a good shorting opportunity with a tight stop. A break/ hold under 1098.50-1098.00 turns trends down.

(Jun 14-11:32) mike: buying some puts up here

(Jun 14-11:35) mike: a 123 type top pattern can set up if 98 holds.

(Jun 14-11:50) mike: 98 on the es and 1870 on nq were resist on the way up, now is key supp, and 10300 dow cash -- lower lows if broken

(Jun 14-12:16) mike: the es spent very little time over 1100 - if exceeded/ held, then a push thru big resist possible , vulnerable under it

(Jun 14-12:38) mike: tug o war , but as long as they stay under 1100 its vulnerable / a short

(Jun 14-13:00) mike: After rejecting 1101.75 the ES spent very little time over the 1099.50 level and the NQ has been in steady downtrend since it topped out. The market is vulnerable and could test 1088 if the 1099.50-1100.00 is not exceeded today.

(Jun 14-13:02) mike: small supp at 94 level , 97.00-97.50 resist now

(Jun 14-13:11) mike: very fast moves, use wider stop, smaller size. 93-92 area key supp, must hold or test 88 area. will put audio on near 130pm, busy day

(Jun 14-13:29) mike: 96 is key to get over, also, acts like a good bid at 93-92. if short cover at least part in 93-92 zone

(Jun 14-13:49) mike: The ES tested the 1093-1092 area and reversed from there, keeping the market range bound. we have seen a few quick moves today, but unless the 1098 area is exceeded the market is vulnerable. If that's exceeded and held, then a decent short squeeze could occur. Favor short under 1098 for now.

(Jun 14-13:59) mike: stay with puts, and 94.00-94.50 is key

audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...

(Jun 14-14:17) mike: 92.50-93.00 is ky resist now

(Jun 14-14:26) mike: The ES reached 1088.00 and filled the gap on the daily chart, so if it can get over 1092-1093 and not reverse the range can continue. If it can not, then a drop towards 1085 then 1080.50-1080.00 is next.

(Jun 14-14:40) mike: pressured on under 90 now

(Jun 14-14:47) mike: the bulls can run this IF 92.00-93.00 is cleared/ held instead of rejection - 97-98 then resist- it would be a short if gets there and stalls out up there

audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...

(Jun 14-15:24) mike: very labored bounce, wedge break , sell under 94.00-94.50

(Jun 14-15:38) mike: small supp at 85.50, then 80.50-79.50

Friday - June 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 11-09:19) mike: es is 11 points under fair value, but bounces wont stick today

(Jun 11-10:06) mike: a top at 80 area, 7750 supp, then 1076.00-1075.50 transition/ pivotal zone

(Jun 11-10:15) mike: they need to stay over 80
(Jun 11-10:19) mike: must hold right here, or they top for now

(Jun 11-10:27) mike: dbl tops, they must stay over 80 or top

(Jun 11-10:29) mike: The lower open was reversed from just under the 1072.50 support and went right to the pivotal 1076.00 before pausing. When it was cleared the ES ran up to 1084.50 so far. The 1080-1079 area must hold or a high for the morning could be in place.

(Jun 11-10:36) mike: sell under 84
(Jun 11-10:37) mike: under 83, it shouldnt be exceeded if gong down here
(Jun 11-10:41) mike: 80-79 area should / must hold on this pullback. - needs to beak soon or no drop
(Jun 11-10:44) mike: needs to get over 83 soon

(Jun 11-10:51) mike: gonna break,
(Jun 11-10:55) mike: 81 is a short

(Jun 11-11:02) mike: The bounce was unable to hold and the ES dropped to 1078.00 so far. The 1081 area will be rejected on a bounce if a top is in place. The 1076 area is still key/ pivotal support that must hold.

(Jun 11-11:12) mike: 76.00 should give a bounce towards 79-80 at least, otherwise its trouble again and no 2 sided day.
(Jun 11-11:12) mike: 1 min chart 9 and 18 ema , like ebook on momentum moves
(Jun 11-11:14) mike: i'm not buying this, if they bounce it wont stick

(Jun 11-11:34) mike: watch 79.50-80.50 for reversal

(Jun 11-11:54) mike: they can trade in the morning range here for awhile, into early afternoon. so look at buying dips and selling a bounce when upside stalls out.

(Jun 11-12:00) mike: The ES dropped through 1076 for about 3 minutes and turned right back up, and then it held on a pullback. The bounces have not been able to hold, but unless that 1076 level is broken and not quickly reversed the market will be in a "buy the dip" mode to test the high or make a lower high before reversing.

(Jun 11-12:09) mike: the moves are labored and not holding. a little wedge here. trade small and scalp both sides so not to get chopped up

(Jun 11-12:25) mike: this wedge broke, a bounce to 78.50-79.00 a short per ebook

(Jun 11-12:33) mike: nq set up better but it was ''by the e-book'' second entry , thats resist now 1079 needs exceeded held to get out of trouble
(Jun 11-12:37) mike: its 1076 area thats holding this up. its a 2 way street until 1081 broken/ held or 1076 broken/ held

(Jun 11-13:05) mike: The ES bounced to 1080.75 and dropped back to 1076.50 and that area held again. The ES has traded back and forth for several hours as it has been stuck inside of the morning range. This is winding the market tight, so a breakout should have momentum if recent action is going to continue.

(Jun 11-13:16) mike: holding 81.00-80.50 is needed to keep uptrend going

(Jun 11-13:26) mike: no explosive move, nq hit a road block. if 80 isn't held/reversed, its not good

(Jun 11-13:48) mike: thats it for the upside, use a bounce to but puts , mkt making up for tiny Trin yest

(Jun 11-13:55) mike: a bounce that stalls about 1/3 of the way up should be a short

(Jun 11-14:03) mike: 79.50 was 1/3 retrace, a key to get over and hold, not reverse, to avoid drop -- 1830.50 on nq

(Jun 11-14:09) mike: we're still inside the morning range. a good bid on the drops. but bounces have no follow thru. -- a mkt to scalp or avoid the rest of the day, tho i have an odd feeling a good sized move could come last hour

(Jun 11-14:14) mike: The ES popped up to 1082.50 but didn't hold and came right back down to 1077.50. If the 1077.50-1076.50 zone is broken and not quickly reversed then the day will end on a down note, testing the lows at least. The 1080.50 level needs exceeded/ held to get upside going and avoid breaking down.

(Jun 11-14:22) mike: this 76 should break.
(Jun 11-14:25) mike: the NQ looks especially vulnerable unless 30-31 is exceeded,

(Jun 11-14:35) mike: thats as far as a bounce goes if they're going to make lower low, otherwise they end up chopping in this range

(Jun 11-14:41) mike: 1827 on nq and 1078 es key resist, lower lows if not exceeded. its a high school graduation night, i'm leaving in a few. have a great weekend. ''see'' ya monday morning

(Jun 11-14:54) mike: as soon as i left they breakout to upside. its quarterly expiration, if they want they could squeeze to over 84 but staying range bound best odds-- anyhow , careful in this. take care

Thursday - June 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 10-09:28) mike: 66 needs to hold to keep trend up

(Jun 10-09:44) mike: 66.50 is key supp

(Jun 10-10:07) mike: might be a top, 75 need hold

(Jun 10-10:17) mike: The market opened a lot higher and the ES U0 reached 1079.00 30 minutes in and has pulled back. If the 1075 area is exceeded, then we can get another push higher, but if they make a lower high and reverse then a top should be in place for the morning. If 1075 is not cleared then a morning high is in place.

(Jun 10-10:52) mike: unable to clear 75 resist , it must soon. 67.75 is the key supp to hold on a drop.

(Jun 10-11:00) mike: its dow 10100 now for supp - its still moving in 50 point increments , today high 10150 is resist
(Jun 10-11:08) mike: 74.50 now needs to hold , tepid break out higher

(Jun 10-11:37) mike: ran up, stalled, rounded top - 75 a sell area , stop just over 76.50

(Jun 10-11:42) mike: The 1075 level was exceeded, but the move stalled at 1076.50 and turned down. The Dow cash has been moving in 50 point increments, and off a 10150 high has been holding 10100, and if broken should drop to 10050 area.

(Jun 10-12:05) mike: pops are stalling, rolling over - our bearish action again. if they pop up, its a short down to 68-67 at least
(Jun 10-12:06) mike: audio i just a bit, see 68-67 first

(Jun 10-12:16) mike: if you held on to 1/2 of pts bought yesterday at this area, cover those,
(Jun 10-12:20) mike: if they pop up to the 73 area it should set up a nice short

(Jun 10-12:30) mike: resist here, that is right at 10100, if cleared then 76 could get a test . nq already made dbl top. so lots of stuff to get thru . the 68.50 was just 2 ticks over 68-67 key supp, also 60ema on 5 min chart at 1069 now.

(Jun 10-12:55) mike: The bounces are not sticking, but the 1068-1067 area has been holding as good support. Look for a bounce to fail under 1074 to be sold, and now 1067 must hold to avoid a deeper drop towards 1063 area.

(Jun 10-13:05) mike: these are not sticking,
(Jun 10-13:06) mike: i was focused on the mkt and forgot audio. will turn it on in about 5 min

(Jun 10-13:16) audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 10-14:13) mike: The 1067 area held and a bounce to 1075.50 failed. The ES needs to get over 1074 and not quickly reverse to avoid more downside, so short a bounce that fails near that area with a tight stop.

(Jun 10-14:18) mike: 1073 and 1811 nq were break levels, now resist

(Jun 10-14:26) mike: a better bounce that i thought, look to buy a dip near 73.50-73.0 if reversed

(Jun 10-14:36) mike: 74.50-74.00 trend supp now, needs to hold

(Jun 10-14:44) mike: The ES only stopped at 1074 for about 2 minutes, and made a new high. As long as the 1074 area is held the market is in buy the dip mode with the 1080.50-1082.00 area as next good resistance.

(Jun 10-14:49) mike: audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 10-15:34) mike: 80.00-79.50 needs to hold going in to the close or 76 is tested

(Jun 10-16:01) mike: small short to carry over, nq - it will be weakest on a drop
(Jun 10-16:02) mike: enjoy rest of your day

Wednesday - June 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 09-09:14) mike: 62.50 area is first support, then 56 area is a key supp. if 1068.50-1069.00 is exceeded, the 72 area will be a big test today. fed beige book this afternoon

(Jun 09-09:35) mike: 69 resist
(Jun 09-09:37) mike: 1068.50-1069.00 a top for drop to 63 area

(Jun 09-10:07) mike: if you sold resist , cover part on drop to 64-63 , its key supp

(Jun 09-10:23) mike: The higher open was reversed from the 1068.50-1069.00 resistance and dropped to the 1063.25 level which is now key support. As long as they stay over 1063, the market will be bullish and possibly get to the 1072.00-1072.50 zone, but if 1063 is broken then the move is over for awhile and selling bounces would be the better odds trade.
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(Jun 09-10:36) mike: dbl top, fails to gather steam. buying a few puts on the pop to resist , still need break under 63 area

(Jun 09-10:42) mike: its obvious where the s/r is now. add 10000 and 9950 on dow, the top side good resist

(Jun 09-10:58) mike: 68.00-67.50 now supp, needs to hold,
(Jun 09-10:59) mike: 1072.00-1072.50 is next key resist area ,

(Jun 09-11:13) mike: The 1063.50 level was reversed and the ES almost the 1075.00-1075.50 zone. A pullback now needs to hold over the 1069.50-1068.50 area or a high will be in place.

(Jun 09-11:18) mike: 72 now must hold or we get a reversal and drop towards 69.

(Jun 09-11:30) mike: 1 min chart, the 18ema a trend guide - at 74.50 right now , trust until broken. next key area is 1080.50

(Jun 09-11:46) mike: topped
(Jun 09-11:46) mike: The ES only pulled back to the 1072 prior support before running up to 1077.75. The market is acting tired, so if 1072 is broken a top could be in place. The next good resistance is at 1080.50-1082.00 if 1077.75 is not the top for this move.

(Jun 09-11:55) mike: if 74 breaks , then trend up action is over. a lower high that reverses up here is a short. otherwise need to hold 74
(Jun 09-11:58) mike: that should be a high. short w/ tight stop, just a scalp
(Jun 09-12:02) mike: 75.75 shouldnt be exceeded, 74.25 supp to cover scalp
(Jun 09-12:05) mike: 76.25 nullifies pattern,
(Jun 09-12:08) mike: a bit of a breakdown, 75.00-75.50 now resist, . 72 is key supp still

(Jun 09-12:27) mike: The ES pulled back to 1073.50 and held so far, with 1072.50 now looking like key support. If the highs are tested and the market reverses then a high for the day could be in. However it has been trend-up and for now nothing bad happens unless 1072.50 area is not defended.

(Jun 09-12:40) mike: 72.50 held but they topped for now, add to puts near 75-76 if reached n rejected. audio on in about 5-10 minutes

(Jun 09-12:57) mike: audio on

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 09-13:00) mike: 75-76 was reached, if short take profits, 75 good resist. audio is on now

(Jun 09-14:08) mike: old 1072 back to being good resist now to sell against. 1067 and dow 10000 are key, must close over or its a bad pattern

(Jun 09-14:22) mike: a drop to 68-87 should hold here end of day , or the mkt gets hit hard again tomorrow or this afternoon

(Jun 09-14:36) mike: they shot higher from 67.50, thats where shorts are trapped, if cut thru then bears in control again and the 72 area is pivotal resistance, if held then 75 gets a test

(Jun 09-14:46) mike: hard to hold a 3rd , 4th time , not holding on bounces, careful long. keep puts for now

(Jun 09-14:53) mike: The 1072 area was broken and held on a bounce, and the ES dropped through the 1067 area. A bounce needs to clear 1072 and hold to avoid more downside as the rally has completely reversed course.

(Jun 09-15:01) mike: cover 1/2 of the puts here, near 1061 es or better
(Jun 09-15:04) mike: dow 9950 area needs to hold, and 1056 is a big cluster of supp on ES below. 63.50 then 67-68 is resist

(Jun 09-15:14) mike: if no bounce from 1056 area, then 1048.50 could be seen on this leg down.
(Jun 09-15:15) mike: 63.50 was on the button, thats now first key resist

(Jun 09-15:20) mike: 60 is trend resist. on these good moves, per e-book, the 9 and 18 ema on 1 min chart is a very good guide
(Jun 09-15:23) mike: if 54 is not held, then 48.50 would be next -- cover other 1/2 of puts if reached and we'll reassess. have a great rest of the day.
(Jun 09-15:26) mike: short covering bounce, dow cash moving in 50 point chunks, 9900 is key supp there, or 9850 would be next. watch 9950-ish for resist.

Tuesday - June 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 08-09:18) mike: 1056.25-1057.00 was sold overnight, and 1061 high was at a resist. upside is limited, those are real good / key resist areas

(Jun 08-09:41) mike: 1056.25-1057.00 1st key resist rejected, 1050 needs to hold now

(Jun 08-10:08) mike: The higher open was sold, peaking 1 tick under the 1056.25-1057.00 resistance on the ES and then it dropped to the 1046.50 support. If that 1056.25-1057.00 area is cleared, then 1061.00-1061.50 will be next and should be reversed if two-sided action is going to continue. If not cleared, and the 1046.50 area is broken then we get one last push lower towards 1038 before a decent reversal can occur.

(Jun 08-10:25) mike: 49 now resist, 1785 nq

(Jun 08-10:37) mike: bounce still fail. need to clear 1050 n hold over to get a move up going, , or bounce from 42 or 38 area
(Jun 08-10:41) mike: 42.50 key on this leg , but a bounce wont hold

(Jun 08-10:53) mike: It's another ugly start for the market, with bounces not sticking again. The 1038.50-1037.50 area should be in the cards before a decent rally can start. A hold over 1050, not another rejection, is needed to change the trends now.

(Jun 08-11:01) mike: a low could be in at 41.50, if 45 holds on a dip here and turns up,
(Jun 08-11:05) mike: 45.50 now must hold , it wont get far tho w/o nq joining the bid
(Jun 08-11:09) mike: no stick'em on bounces so until its changed sell all the bounces/ old 1048 supp now good resist

(Jun 08-11:20) mike: dbl bottom , but need to hold over 48
(Jun 08-11:24) mike: 48 held but if 48 is broken, then 45.50 is good supp now

(Jun 08-11:29) mike: The market double bottomed and the ES ran up from 1041.25 to 1052.75 as it finally shows signs of life. The 1048 area needs to hold now, or the 1045.50-1045.00 area would need to hold to avoid more trouble.

(Jun 08-11:40) mike: stall at 60ema on 5 min chart, need to push thru 54.50
(Jun 08-11:43) mike: 48.50-47.50 needs to hold on pullback here, another failed rally otherwise

(Jun 08-12:00) mike: 2 sided action if 55 is broken here - 50.50-50.00 now key supp. 58 a good resist t sell

(Jun 08-12:25) mike: needs to stay over 50.50 and get running up. acting poorly again

(Jun 08-12:34) mike: 51 hld, needs to get going soon. if this 1050.50 isnt held, that breaks them dwn hard
(Jun 08-12:37) mike: The rally stalled out after reaching 1058. As long as 1050.50 holds, no damage done but if broken they get hit hard. If 1058 is cleared, then 1061.00-1061.50 will be next and should be reversed if two-sided action is going to continue.

(Jun 08-12:45) mike: sell nq on bounce, under 1792 its vulnerable

(Jun 08-12:52) mike: 92 resist on nq now, es needs to stay over 55 to test the high

(Jun 08-13:00) mike: they are struggling a bit , but mkt will be ok unless 1051 is broken for now
(Jun 08-13:05) mike: 123 top on dow. that should be it

(Jun 08-13:10) mike: The ES bounced to 1056.25 and was rejected while the Dow made a double top so that should be it for the bounce. The 1051.00-1050.50 area needs to hold to avoid another drop which could be sharp.

(Jun 08-13:16) mike: 53.00-53.50 resist now. 1788 on nq

(Jun 08-13:22) mike: audio on wednesday and thursday - we have a top pattern and drop to good support/.. if 51 breaks, they could drop to 48-47 and turn up, but if not then test/ break the low is possible to end this move

(Jun 08-13:32) mike: pressure on under 50.00-50.50 now
(Jun 08-13:36) mike: if dow cash goes thru 9800 then i think we will see 1038.50 or so before a decent low in place

(Jun 08-13:52) mike: 38.50 next key supp area, 48 now key resist. 1 min chart, 18ema trend guide

(Jun 08-14:01) mike: there are shorts covering 43-41 area. a scalp long on a test/ reversal. a decent low shouldn't be too far away

(Jun 08-14:39) mike: 56 AREA TUFF all day. supp at 51.50 now

(Jun 08-14:49) mike: 53 needs to hold now, that resistance is top of range 56 to 43

(Jun 08-15:06) mike: if 53.50 is cleared / held they close in decent shape and low will be in place for a day or so.
(Jun 08-15:08) mike: if not, still in vulnerable position , especialy a break/ close under 1050

(Jun 08-15:29) mike: if they get to 52 its a buy, even to 48 area its a buy with tight stop. a bottom should be close, at least a decent rebound. a close up here looks bullish

(Jun 08-15:51) mike: 63 is good resist, a pullback from there likely in the morn. 1058 old high now trend support

(Jun 08-15:55) mike: have a good rest of the day. 63 will be good resit, 58 supp needs to hold into close

Monday - June 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 07-09:28) mike: 69-70 area sold , good resist early

(Jun 07-10:02) mike: 66 need to hold if double bottom is our low

(Jun 07-10:16) mike: top for now at 60ema on 5 min chart, 68 needs to hold or more dip

(Jun 07-10:24) mike: The ES popped up to 1068.25, just under the 1068.50-1069.00 resistance zone, and then dropped 7.50 points to test Friday's low before turning up. The bounce ran out of steam at the 60ema on the 5 minute chart, but it will take a break/ hold back under 1067-1066 to turn the trends back down.

(Jun 07-10:29) mike: sell a bounce under 70-71 area, that's key resist now. nq is acting weaker since topping, a better short

(Jun 07-10:37) mike: 67 resist now, 1834-1836 on nq is key area now

(Jun 07-10:42) mike: price pattern is not good, 60ema on 5 min chart will be key resist today. a bounce to a lower high that reverses will set up 123 top. we had a small one when 1070 was reversed at 10;26 am

(Jun 07-10:49) mike: that 62 needs t hold, if they break that and dont turn right back up then 58 area is next

(Jun 07-10:56) mike: After turning down from the 60ema on the 5 minute chart the ES couldn't stay over 1067 and fell to test the 1060.50 level. The bounces are shorts under 1068 now, and the 1058 area needs to hold or the 1052 zone could be seen on this leg down.

(Jun 07-10:58) mike: 62 now resist, use 1 min chart, 9/18 ema trend guide
(Jun 07-10:59) mike: if you still have the 1/2 put position on, its closed out here

(Jun 07-11:08) mike: 58 supp reached, but 62-63 still needs to clear/ hold to change trend dn action

(Jun 07-11:13) mike: just 62 now key resist, 1820 area on NQ

(Jun 07-11:27) mike: morning low, a decent bounce possible

(Jun 07-11:35) mike: no gusto on the bounce,
(Jun 07-11:36) mike: es needs to stay over 62 to avoid test of low
(Jun 07-11:40) mike: 67.75 is a key resist area on this bounce , if 62.50-62.00 area holds

(Jun 07-11:55) mike: the bounces just can not hold. i still like shorts on bounces. if 62 breaks, lows could go next

(Jun 07-12:00) mike: The 1058.50 area was broken but quickly reversed and the ES moved up to 1065.00 so far. The 1062 area needs to continue to hold, otherwise they could revisit the lows. But, as long as that 1062 area holds, a test of the 1067.50 and possibly the 1070 area could be in the cards before selling comes in.

(Jun 07-12:08) mike: 65 is now support. needs to hold over it

(Jun 07-12:32) mike: a pop tp 65.50-66.50 is a short.- 2 sided day, but bounces no hold

(Jun 07-12:44) mike: 66 rejected, its resist , scalp short only, its getting tricky this afternoon. i'll put on audio in about 10 minutes ,

(Jun 07-12:47) mike: The 1067.50 level was tested and the market pulled back. The action is a bit tricky this afternoon, but it looks like the market is vulnerable to more selling unless 1066 is exceeded and held on a pullback.

(Jun 07-12:51) mike: audio on

audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jun 07-13:31) mike: must stay over 66, or a reversal

(Jun 07-13:42) mike: a pop up from here to 67.00-67.50 a good short

(Jun 07-13:55) mike: 64 then 66 is good resist now , a good reward/risk short if reached and move stalls

(Jun 07-14:03) mike: The 1066 level was broken and held on a little bounce, and that has been pivotal so look for a shorting opportunity if that is tested and the move stalls/ reverses.

(Jun 07-14:21) mike: if 62.50 not cleared/ held, then 58.00/57.50 will be tested.... or 9900 on dow cash,

audio...audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

Friday - June 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 04-09:16) mike: 90.50-91.00 now key resist. bounces wont stick, 1068.50-1068.00 key support
(Jun 04-09:20) mike: cover 1/2 of puts on open if you bought 2 days ago

(Jun 04-10:03) mike: a bounce high 25 minutes in , need to break/ hold 1087 n hold to get upside going
(Jun 04-10:05) mike: The big gap down open was bought at the 1080.50-1079.50 support zone and bounced to 1086.25 so far. The 1087 level needs to be cleared/ held to get a decent bounce going, but 1090.50-1091.50 is good resistance if they get that far.

(Jun 04-10:13) mike: quick moves -- a rejection near 86.50 - 87.00 is a short. a reversal up from 82 a scalp long
(Jun 04-10:17) mike: 85 should/ must hold

(Jun 04-10:22) mike: 85 held, its a key supp now -
(Jun 04-10:28) mike: sell any longs 88 if tested , stalling a bit
(Jun 04-10:33) mike: 88 rejected soundly sell against that /

(Jun 04-10:38) mike: The moves are fast and choppy but the 1088 level was rejected and 1085 was also defended. For now 1088 must be exceeded and hold 1087 to avoid more trouble. The 1085 area needs to hold or pressure would be on.

(Jun 04-10:47) mike: this pattern is not a good one, even tho a bounce , 88 is a key resist

(Jun 04-10:57) mike: 84.50-85.00 resist, press on under that

(Jun 04-11:10) mike: 85 rejected , stair step down now
(Jun 04-11:13) mike: The ES failed at 1088 and broke 1085 on the drop. The bounce was rejected at 1085 and that needs to be cleared to avoid a test/ break of the lows.

(Jun 04-11:16) mike: that is important supp, 10050 dow cash and 1082 on ES must hold or they drop towards 78-77 area or more

(Jun 04-11:21) mike: 82.50 now good resist
(Jun 04-11:26) mike: lock in partial profit if short at 78-77 zone. or trail

(Jun 04-11:34) mike: 68.50 is possible on this leg if they stay under 80
(Jun 04-11:38) mike: 82.50 needs cleared, but a quick trade on long side is 79-77 is tested/ reversed

(Jun 04-11:58) mike: they need to get over 81.50 and hold that on a dip to avoid another drop

(Jun 04-12:02) mike: The ES bounced off of 1077 support but it failed again. The market will stay in trouble unless 1081.50 is exceeded and held on a pullback. The 1068.50-1068.00 area is the next key area below.

(Jun 04-12:13) mike: should make another push higher if 76 holds on a small dip

(Jun 04-12:31) mike: that 78 area now key resist.
(Jun 04-12:34) mike: nq weaker, 1860-61 is good resist now

(Jun 04-12:43) mike: 76.5 r now

(Jun 04-12:57) mike: it looks like 1080 es, 1860 nq are needed to break over n hold to get a decent rebound

(Jun 04-13:16) mike: The ES dropped to 1073.75 and then the bounce failed again under the 1080 resistance. It will take a move over 1080 to erase downside momentum as its trend down so far.

(Jun 04-13:28) mike: i need to leave for 30 min. this bounce should fail under 76.50-77.00 else a low could be in for a bit

(Jun 04-13:43) mike: bounce still failed. i'll turn on audio and see if this trend move continues or reverses.

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 04-14:25) mike: audio now off. resist at 75 area must be cleared to get out of trouble
(Jun 04-14:28) mike: 68.50-68.00 is a key supp to end the week, it must hold/ reverse to avoid a bad close

(Jun 04-14:36) mike: they missed 68.50 by 2 ticks. covering shorts on a test of that 68.75, it should reverse fast then fail
(Jun 04-14:40) mike: they are still a short unless 72.50-73.00 exceeded , they dont want to bounce much this time
(Jun 04-14:44) mike: 68.50 supp nailed, 64.50-64.00 would be next. , have a great weekend, and we'll get em on monday.

(Jun 04-14:50) mike: 7050 resist now

(Jun 04-15:03) mike: 68.00 good resist now
(Jun 04-15:09) mike: 68.25 reversed once. that is a key area for a weekly close. 1040's is possible if close under it
(Jun 04-15:09) mike: enjoy the weekend

(Jun 04-15:58) mike: if short from well above keep part over w/e, a small position

Thursday - June 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 03-09:20) mike: fade the gap up open, cover / buy first good drop 98-97 supp 1

(Jun 03-09:56) mike: ISM number in 3 min

(Jun 03-10:02) mike: thts it esp if 1102 breaks
(Jun 03-10:07) mike: those highs at very key resist. a bigger brake if 98-97 is broken
(Jun 03-10:10) mike: if 1101.50 is broken, the upside pattern breaks and should give a sharp drop. a 123 top could set up here
(Jun 03-10:16) mike: got the 123 top, 04 shouldnt be exceeded now. scalp trades on these while range bound

(Jun 03-10:20) mike: The 1103.50 resistance on the ES was sold on the opening 5 minutes and dropped 4.25 points to 1099.25 before bouncing to 1105.25. A 123 top formed from 1104 and the market is a short unless that is exceeded/ held. The 1098-1097 area should/ must hold to avoid trouble.

(Jun 03-10:22) mike: 01.50 resist now

(Jun 03-10:33) mike: 97 gave feeble bounce, resist at 1100.50-1101.50 now

(Jun 03-10:58) mike: The ES dropped to 1096.50 and turned back up but the bounce doesn't have much gusto yet, and needs to get over 1101.50 and stick to avoid another push lower.

(Jun 03-11:03) mike: poked over 1101.50 by 1 tick... it should roll over unless cleared soon
(Jun 03-11:08) mike: no reversal now unless 1101.50-1101.00 breaks,, a dbl top at resist possible. but no real damage done unless 97 breaks

(Jun 03-11:22) mike: The ES took out 1101.50 but the 1103 area is still hard to get through and hold. Another test of 1097 will need to be reversed again, otherwise the trends roll over.

(Jun 03-11:29) mike: a test of the 1101.50 should be sold -- but if staying with head under water at 1100, pressure on

(Jun 03-11:42) mike: rejection just under 01.50 but very choppy. if 98-87 holds, a decent bounce can occur

(Jun 03-11:54) mike: in a 3 point range, just sell the pops today under 1103,
(Jun 03-11:56) mike: 97-96 is cover part zone

(Jun 03-12:08) mike: 98.50-99.50 now good resist. /

(Jun 03-12:16) mike: After rejecting 1103 and pulling back to 1098.50, the 1101 area turned into a lid and rolled over. If they get back to 1098.50-1099.50 the move should fail. Shorting bounces that stall/ reverse under 1101 are shorts today.

(Jun 03-12:18) mike: 96.50 trend dn resist

(Jun 03-12:24) mike: 1091.25-1090.75 must hold or 88-87 is in the cards before a rally attempt, it won't stick tho. that .28 closing Trin was blowoff top indication, and lots of trapped longs above

(Jun 03-12:30) mike: 1091.25-1090.75 take profits on shorts, at least part. still have aug puts, will add if a decent bounce sets up a good short. missed adding earlier

(Jun 03-12:49) mike: The ES fell to the 1091.25-1090.75 zone and turned up from 1090.25 low so far. The 1098-1099 area still should be hard to get through if tested. If the lows at support are broken, then the 1088-1087 area would be a "must hold" or a revisit of the 1080.50 area on ES and 10100 on Dow cash could be seen.

(Jun 03-13:25) mike: both 60 and 20ema at 95.50 there, now key

(Jun 03-13:35) mike: 93.5 should hold to get a rally going

(Jun 03-13:43) mike: If the ES can hold the 1094 area on a dip then we could see one more good run higher. For now as long as the 1091.25-1090.75 zone holds the market will hold together in front of tomorrow's employment report.

(Jun 03-13:59) mike: that 97-98 is the key to getting out of trouble. careful long

(Jun 03-14:11) mike: should get to 1101ish

(Jun 03-14:21) mike: The ES pulled back to 1094.25 then took off to 1099.50. This bounce from the key 1091.25-1090.75 zone has been ragged but as long as the 1097 area is held the trends stay to upside.

(Jun 03-14:29) mike: if 97 breaks then a bounce should fail at/under 1099.

(Jun 03-14:47) mike: 99.50 area needs to hold here it l
(Jun 03-14:49) mike: that 1101.50 is key, as is 10250 dow cash

(Jun 03-14:55) mike: 99.50 supp needs to hold or change in trend, -- a hold over 10250 on dow cash needed to push higher

(Jun 03-15:00) mike: 1105.75-1106.25 is a big cluster of resist to get thru. dips have higher lows so 99.50-99.00 needs to hold to have a chance to get there or

(Jun 03-15:10) mike: The 1097 level held on a pullback and 1102 was reached, but now the 1099 area must hold to keep the run-up going. There is a lot of resistance around 1103.50-1106.25 band. If 1099 is broken, the market could get hit if unable to get back over 1101.50.

(Jun 03-15:14) mike: this is a big wedge pattern, a bounce to 1101.50 or lower should fail.

(Jun 03-15:25) mike: that 97 still key area. there is employment data in morning. this bounce started a bit early so should fail

(Jun 03-15:35) mike: 1103.50 was good resist coming in to the day. its still key, bounce failed just under it. 05.50-06.25 resist if 1103 exceeded- a squeeze towards 1110-1111 if they get wings . its so choppy tht 1100.50 is likely

(Jun 03-15:40) mike: 1101.50 needs to hold now to keep the trend up, will do audio tomorrow, was very active buy day

(Jun 03-15:47) mike: 1103.50 a tuff level, have a good rest of the day

Wednesday - June 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 02-10:40) mike: 77-78 sold, 72 then 63-62
(Jun 02-10:41) mike: 75.50 small resist now. econ data 10am, 63-62 area possible if 75.50 not cleared/ held
(Jun 02-10:41) mike: if short cover part at 72 r better, re short a bounce, 63-63 next

(Jun 02-10:41) mike: The higher open was reversed at the 1077.00-1078.00 resistance zone on the ES and it dropped to 1071.00 before turning back up. The 1082.25-1082.25 area needs to be cleared and not quickly reversed to get the trends to turn. If 1077 don't hold then the 1074.50-1074.00 area is next and a key support now.

(Jun 02-10:41) mike: 77 is now key supp, 80.75= 60ema on 5 min chart and bigger trend resist there
(Jun 02-10:43) mike: wedge too, a short w/ tight stop

(Jun 02-10:50) mike: thats a top for awhile it looks like, 74.50-74.00 small supp. --
(Jun 02-10:54) mike: IF they pop up to a lower high, then reverse on the 2 min chart, its a 123 type top and a good reshort

(Jun 02-11:18) mike: The ES held the 1074.50 area and ran up to the 1082.25-1082.75 zone. The 1075 level must hold on a pullback, otherwise a bearish pattern will break down.

(Jun 02-11:30) mike: another rejection of resist, the 79 area now important supp,

(Jun 02-11:41) mike: its been a grind higher, but trends dont roll over unless 1079 ES, 10100 on dow cash, 1852 on the NQ are broken/ and not reversed quickly reversed back up,

(Jun 02-12:03) mike: The market has grinded higher since the low made 25 minutes in, but the upside is losing momentum and is not far from a pivotal 1088.25-1089.00 zone on the ES. The key support is at 1079 on ES, 10100 on Dow cash, and 1852 on the NQ. If broken, then a high for the day could be in place and then 1074.50-1074.00 would be the key support.

(Jun 02-13:03) mike: 1088.25-1089.00

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio......audio...

(Jun 02-13:28) mike: 85.50 es, 1863 nq good resist now, audio is off for now

(Jun 02-13:33) mike: The ES rejected 1087 and backed off. The market is vulnerable unless 1085.50 on ES and 1863 on NQ are both exceeded. If that's the case, then one more push towards 1088-1089 should be reversed unless this range is going to extend towards 1101-1103 again.

(Jun 02-14:10) mike: if short cover some at least at 82.75 or better . on audio again in a few minutes

(Jun 02-14:24) mike: 80 area should give a bounce if mkt is not going to nose dive. re short if a failure under 83.50, audio in 5 min here
(Jun 02-14:26) mike: audio is on

audio...audio...audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....

(Jun 02-15:08) mike: audio off , its trend up over 89.00 up to 93.50-94.50 zone

(Jun 02-15:17) mike: The ES took out the resistance after reversing off 10100 on the Dow cash and rallied to the 1093.50 resistance so far. A pullback must hold 1089-1088, the trends are up and only reversed if 1089-1088 area is broken.

(Jun 02-15:19) mike: 91 needs to hold or it will look toppy.

(Jun 02-15:38) mike: buying a small position in august puts

Tuesday - June 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 01-09:17) mike: 84.00-84.50 resist/ gap fill on daily chart

(Jun 01-09:52) mike: ism index top of the hour , 84.00gap fill resist , 1080 needs to hold to avoid reversal

(Jun 01-10:10) mike: old 87.50-88.00 a big hurdle to get over.

(Jun 01-10:21) mike: The ES gapped down on the open and that was reversed and after breaking 1080 that area held on a pullback. The 1084.50 area needs to hold to keep the trends up. The 1095.50-1096.25 zone is the next good resistance.

(Jun 01-10:34) mike: 9 and 18ema on 1 min chart is trend supp , a top here likely

(Jun 01-10:46) mike: 1088.00-1087.50 is pivotal, needs to hold there

(Jun 01-11:09) mike: The move stalled out after 1094.50 was rejected, and it looks like the 1088.00-1087.50 area is pivotal. If held, a bounce that fails near 1092 should be sold if the market is going to return to its weak status.

(Jun 01-11:18) mike: 88.50-89.25 shouldn't be exceeded/ held if going lower

(Jun 01-11:49) mike: The 1088.00-1087.50 area was broken and a bounce rejected 1090 and turned back down. The 1080 area was aggressively bought this morning, and if broken then the 1074.50-1073.50 area could be tested today.

(Jun 01-12:31) mike: i'm not feeling well at all. need to take a break. my apologies. i'll make it up for you.

(Jun 01-14:41) mike: pressure on under 88. IF exceeded, the 92.50-94.00 a sell zone , a 2-sided day, 83-82 must hold on a drp

(Jun 01-15:01) mike: The ES bounced to 1092.50 after the last update and then fell to 1081.75. The bounce couldn't stick. Unless the ES can get over 1088-1089 it is vulnerable and still could test the 1074 area if the 1080 area is not defended.

Due to illness there probably will not be an update tonight.

(Jun 01-15:13) mike: scalp longs if 82 tested / reversed

(Jun 01-15:21) mike: no reversal, stay w/ shorts. have a good rest of the day. hope to use audio if back up to par tomorrow.

I was out for several days for dental surgery so I did not get Mike's daily log for those days. I'm sorry for the inconvenience. ~ Julie

Tuesday - May 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 25-09:14) mike: a decent bounce won't be able to hold today. 1040.75 is Feb low

(May 25-09:27) mike: 1050-1051 area is first good resist

(May 25-09:48) mike: 43.75 now needs to hold on a dip

(May 25-10:04) mike: 46 now good supp 54-55 r
(May 25-10:08) mike: top in
(May 25-10:10) mike: that 1048 is a key supp , must hold or bigger drop
(May 25-10:13) mike: a wedge pattern again too, so a bounce that reverses near 51-52 should get sold

(May 25-10:21) mike: a better bounce than normal. any way the pops are like yesterday early, run up then pull back. those are shorts. on a pullback, 1048 needs to hold now

(May 25-10:25) mike: The big gap down open continued lower for about 12 minutes and then turned up. The action is a bit like yesterday, and now 1048 on the ES needs to hold to avoid rolling over. The 1057.50-1058.50 area is next resistance.

(May 25-10:33) mike: 48 held but they need to get over 52 and not reverse to avoid a down move

(May 25-11:09) mike: that 1045 area is good support, mkt had good buying come in and a pullback can be bought near 52-51 roughly. sprints higher still should give several pts pullback after a stall like this

(May 25-11:16) mike: if you bought that, keep a tight stop and scalp out near 54

(May 25-11:24) mike: The ES broke 1048 but only went to 1045.50 before turning back up. The market is trying to hang in there and not fall apart, but the sprints to the upside are setting up good shorting opportunities. The 1045 area needs to be defended on pullback otherwise the market could begin to unwind.

(May 25-11:37) mike: short bounces that poke up to 53-54 , or under , mkt in trouble if can not break/ hold over 54 now

(May 25-11:45) mike: just missed 53 before pulling back. to stay out of trouble 50.00-49.50 need hold

(May 25-11:59) mike: 54.00-53.50 supp now,

(May 25-12:12) mike: sprint t o higher high sold again. like yesterday. a break of 54.50-54.00 would mean things change to down

(May 25-12:30) mike: things changed, 1050 is a ''must hold''. like yesterday, a wedge pattern again too
(May 25-12:35) mike: 54.50 resist now

(May 25-12:55) mike: 51-50 area is pivotal from this morning / heavily traded too. if the mkt is going to hold together and try to bounce, that needs to hold. even then this bounce will likely do the same, burn ut and reverse unless it get over 1059

(May 25-13:06) mike: a break could be hard , wedge

(May 25-13:16) mike: The ES made a little double top at 1058.50-1058.75 and also broke another wedge pattern so the bounces are shorting opportunities down to the 1045 area which should hold if the market is going to avoid a bad close.

(May 25-13:23) mike: 54.00-54.50 is bounce resist.

(May 25-13:34) mike: that 54 area looks like its key for now. if unable to push thru that and hold the gain, the longs should get antse to get out

(May 25-13:49) mike: 52.50-53.00 would be a good resist,

(May 25-14:19) mike: 49 area was well bid , the mkt has thrashed around, but a dip should hold 53.50 if going hiher, 51.50 at worst, 49 would be a break down area.

(May 25-14:28) mike: 54.50-54.00 should / must hold on a pullback

(May 25-14:39) mike: decent bounce but topped it loks

(May 25-14:43) mike: wrong on the top, watch 62 for reversal, trend up over 54.50

(May 25-14:51) mike: 58 area now support and should hold , if not held 54.50 would be next.

(May 25-15:02) mike: The ES got its footing around 1049 and took out the 1058 area. That needs to hold or the 1054.50-1054.00 pivotal area would be next and it must hold.

(May 25-15:04) mike: need to hold 60.50-60.00 or pressure would be on

(May 25-15:07) mike: we had a gap day low made 12 min into trading, so if they stay over 62 and keep trend up then the high could be made in last 15 min of stock trading

(May 25-15:13) mike: 66.00-66.50 was a fixed supp, now looks like good resist to sell

(May 25-15:23) mike: should test 1070
(May 25-15:25) mike: gone this far the gap may as well fill / better fill.

(May 25-15:33) mike: its still trend up unless 68 breaks and not quickly reversed back up

(May 25-15:42) mike: 68 was quickly reversed, but this move now needs to stay over 71 or ts over

(May 25-15:51) mike: a close over 71 will be a plus for this reversal day, but if not it could be like the rally from 51.25 to 88.75, and fail badly
(May 25-15:53) mike: audio tomorrow, have a good rest of the day.

Monday - May 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 24-09:16) mike: 1071.50-1070.50 was globex low, a bottom, then 1076.75-1075.75 was pivotal on the way up, it needs to hold on drop

(May 24-10:03) mike: 1076.75-1075.75 held, but its a scalp long only, shorts look better on pops
(May 24-10:06) mike: 79 needs to hold now

(May 24-10:14) mike: they need to stay over 1080 to keep the upside intact here
(May 24-10:19) mike: The ES dropped to the pivotal 1076.75-1075.75 zone and turned up. The bounce had trouble holding until 10am and now the ES needs to get over the 1087.75-1088.75 to avoid another pullback. The 1080 area needs to hold to keep the uptrends intact.

(May 24-10:28) mike: must hold over 82.00-81.50 now or a reversal could occur

(May 24-10:42) mike: sell resist tight stop, a scalp
(May 24-10:43) mike: 84.50-84.00 s

(May 24-10:47) mike: scalp out of part ,
(May 24-10:47) mike: trail stp on rest

(May 24-10:55) mike: The 1087.75-1088.75 zone was tested and from 1087.00 the ES dropped to 1082 so far. It looks like a two-sided day, and a drop must not break the pivotal 1076.75-1075.75 zone, or we see the 1068 area once again. However, if 1087.75-1088.75 area is exceeded then the 1093.50-1094.00 area would be a good reversal area.

(May 24-11:07) mike: a little bit after noon i'll put audio on for a bit, and later this afternoon if action dictates. . will do sooner on wednsday

(May 24-11:17) mike: upside sure looks limited, if they pop back towards 83.5-84.00 and stall its a short

(May 24-11:41) mike: careful w/ short here , mktt ok unless 80 breaks

(May 24-12:00) mike: The ES pulled back to 1080.25 and held there about 15 minutes before pushing higher. The action is choppy and range bound and has been a scalper's market so look to be a buyer as long as the 1080 area is defended. Also, the sprint's to the upside are scalp shorts when the move stalls a bit then begins to turn down.

(May 24-12:08) mike: 86.50-86.00 area should hold, then 1093.50-1094.00 is next resist.

(May 24-12:21) mike: support broken and 87.75 is a key resist. may have topped, audio on i need bout 5 min here

mike: AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO....

(May 24-13:19) mike: The market is tired and ready to roll over again. A bounce that fails near the highs, or lower, should be sold. If 1084 breaks then a wedge breaks and a bounce should then fail.

(May 24-13:27) mike: they reversed at lower high, but careful this chop
(May 24-13:28) mike: can eat up the account getting whipped around.
(May 24-13:28) mike: for scalpers or swing trades.

(May 24-13:39) mike: now it looks like upside is over , wedges broken too, nq weaker if they run up and stall 1 minute its a short

(May 24-13:52) mike: if 1080 is't held, a trading range out of the picture today
(May 24-13:53) mike: 84 area now good resist

(May 24-14:14) mike: a key area, need to hold 83 on a dip here to avoid roll over

(May 24-14:40) mike: buy 82-81 zone on reversal, or sell 84.50--85.00 the rest of the day. a tight stop on either. or wait for better action tomorrow if not a scalper
(May 24-14:42) mike: odds favor a break dn, if they pop it should be sold

(May 24-14:55) mike: 8200-82.50 resist ,

(May 24-15:03) mike: 76-75 should b seen , or more

(May 24-15:13) mike: 79.50-80.25 r

(May 24-15:29) mike: turned from 80.00, need to get over especially if 78 breaks here late

(May 24-15:59) mike: 1071.50-1070.50 Need to hold on close

Friday - May 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

May 21, 2010 9:14 mike: 1062.50-1064.00 initial support is now initial resistance

May 21, 2010 10:09 mike: 18 ema on 1 min chart has been the trend support, trend up unless/ until broken 1072.75 area now -- 1081.25-1082.25 important resist

May 21, 2010 10:14 mike: top , a test of high should be sold

(May 21-10:23) mike: The ES gapped down below the 1056 low and turned up and rallied 28+ points so far to 1079.50. A pullback needs to hold the 1062 area now to avoid a test of the lows. A two-sided day is likely today so both sides should give opportunities.

(May 21-10:33) mike: 71.00-71.50 is pivotal resist , needs a move over n not reject it to reassert upside

(May 21-10:43) mike: if it can't hold these gains, back to downtrends

(May 21-10:51) mike: no follow thru on bounce, upside already +28 pts , 10d avg range 25 pts, 3d avg range 27 pts

May 21, 2010 11:10 mike: 60ema on 5 min at 77.50
May 21, 2010 11:33 mike: 1087.75-1088.75 could be tested if they can rally one more time , 79-78 supp must hold or no go,

(May 21-11:35) mike: 79 held , nq leading keep eye on it too

(May 21-11:46) mike: 1087.75-1088.75 hit, 84 is supp now
(May 21-11:49) mike: ii must leave for 30 min ,

(May 21-12:17) mike: my apologies, had emergency to tend to. 87.75 resist rejected, it looks like 1180.00-1079.50 is key supp, and a test of 87.00-87.50 that stalls is a short

(May 21-12:28) mike: tigt stop on short
(May 21-12:29) mike: 84.50 needs to break, scalp trade

(May 21-12:35) mike: 84.50 now resist

(May 21-12:46) mike: losing momentum, this a test of mkt strength,/ weakness as these patterns were leading to drops all week . extreme oversold, and reversal from 3 ticks over the major 1050.50-1049.50zone gave good rally, but tuckered out. 82-81 holds, or topped

(May 21-13:13) mike: 82 resist , , will reverse if going dn

(May 21-13:29) mike: dow cash trying to hold 10100, mkt acting like all week, failed rally . not wild about long side yet , up here, selling the bounces under 83-84 area

(May 21-13:38) mike: fyi, next week i plan to do audio updates monday afternoon, a part of tues and wednesday depending on mkt action. however to avoid burn out i dont want a fixed schedule, that happened 1 other time. better to come on if i see something ready to set up. and post alert in this box i'm using audio.

(May 21-13:52) mike: poked into 83-84, tgt stop, a dip should hold 80.00-79.50 ,
(May 21-13:54) mike: scalp out , or keep very tgt stop

(May 21-14:07) mike: 84 has been trouble today. still not crazy about buying up here, rally very extended now. 77.00-76.50 next key supp

(May 21-14:18) mike: 75 supp, a bounce to 78-79 a short on a stall

(May 21-14:27) mike: a close under 75 is bearish, its a pivotal area as is 10100 dow cash . pressure will be on if broken

(May 21-14:45) mike: its bearish under 80, no reason to but fri afternoon

(May 21-14:50) mike: 75.00-76.00 reshort
(May 21-14:51) mike: 72.50-72.00 a small supp, need dn turn soon here

(May 21-15:05) mike: if they test 1072-1071 , or a bit higher, it should reverse if a bottom is in , has been a stair step down so 1080 still a important resist

(May 21-15:31) mike: no more trades, bounce still no stick so not the better side. have a great w/e and will talk to you monday

Thursday - May 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 20-09:47) mike: need to get over 93 on ES and 1838 nq and not quickly reverse to get a low in for a bit, a bounce will be sold 1198-1100 key resist

(May 20-10:19) mike: The ES gapped down 21 points, bounced from just over 1085 support area, then rolled over again. There should be resistance at the 1088-1089 area. But, the 1073-1071 area could be seen and unless the 1092-1093 area is reached, that area is possible before buying comes in.

(May 20-10:26) mike: 81.00-81.50 good resist now

(May 20-10:49) mike: 3 tops at 85, need to get over n hold to get ou of trouble

(May 20-11:11) mike: need to stay over 83, if that breaks, then a bounce after the break should not stick

(May 20-11:21) mike: The ES dropped to 1074.50 and bounced to 1187.00 so far. If the lows are tested, we should get a bounce but the market is still vulnerable under the 1087 level.

(May 20-11:31) mike: as long as 1181 holds , the mkt will not fall apart again. if it is broken, then testing low is possible. good 2-sided action, so dips are buying opportunities but don't get married to that side, as there is a lot of resist to get thru. 1195-98 could be seen IF early highs are not rejected

(May 20-11:46) mike: a bit of a wedge, 1086.00-1085.50 needs to hold now

(May 20-11:58) mike: 86 wedge break area resist now

(May 20-12:14) mike: IF U SOLD 86 AREA, trail stop on 1/2, exit part at 83 or better
(May 20-12:15) mike: ebook ''wedge break, 2nd entry'' exactly
(May 20-12:17) mike: 78.25 small supp, take profit and look for re short.
(May 20-12:17) mike: i'll be audio in a bit , when slows a bit

(May 20-12:25) mike: 82.50 - needs to stay under, or bounce back

(May 20-12:29) mike: The ES went to 089.50 and formed a wedge pattern, then the bounce after the break returned to 1086 breakdown level and dropped 6 + points to 1079.50. The ES needs to get over 1083 and hold over it to get out of down trends for a bit.

(May 20-12:46) mike: audio in bout 10 min , 78.25 held and now good supp/ key supp

(May 20-13:03) mike: 5 min audio, need to dbl check a few things
(May 20-13:09) mike: The bounce failed under 1083 and the ES dropped to the 1072-1071 zone before reversing. That 1083 area is still resistance to clear to get a break from the selling for a while.

(May 20-13:12) mike: AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO....AUDIO

(May 20-14:01) mike: The ES sprinted higher pretty fast and took out 1083 on the wat to 1087.75. That should be hard to get thru, and the market still vulnerable unless it is cleared. A bottom at 1072-1071 should be reversed unless we are headed towards 1050 or lower.

(May 20-14:04) mike: 83 resist now

Wednesday - May 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 19-09:24) mike: If 1107.00-1106.50 is reached, it will set up a trade from long side if quickly reversed .

(May 19-09:54) mike: a turn in first 30 minutes usual. , 1892.75-1894.00 on NQ key there

(May 19-10:06) mike: The open at 1112.50 support was bought but the bounce stalled/ reversed from 1122.75 on ES (just under key resistance) and the NQ reversed from its 1892.75-1894.00 initial resistance. The high made 20 minutes in, so that area is still a key resistance on a bounce. If the low breaks, then 1107.00-1106.50 area could start a decent bounce.

(May 19-10:17) mike: the 1110.50 is a key supp, then 1107-1106. if they reverse from 1107-1106 area a decent boulce possible. still, upside would be liimited IF they reverse

(May 19-10:22) mike: lock in profits on part if short, and/or trail stop on the rest 1102, 1098-1095 area next supp

(May 19-10:42) mike: 1115 needs to be exceeded and help to change the symmetry / itlooks pivotal area this morning.
(May 19-10:42) mike: The ES cut right thru 1107.00-1106.50 on the way to 1103.50 so far, and the bounce stopped at the 1115 low area from yesterday. The 1115 area needs to be cleared and held on a pullback to get out of trouble this morning. A test of the lows that reverses should set up a scalp from the long side, but trends are down under 1115.

(May 19-11:07) mike: its slowing down, watch 1874 on nq , a small double top , needs cleared soon and not reverses, or a drop coming

(May 19-11:17) mike: stay with shorts unless 111.50-1112 is taken out.

(May 19-11:25) mike: 1106.25-1107.00 area good resist now

(May 19-11:31) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18 ema is trend guide on these moves

(May 19-11:38) mike: if 1106.25-1107.00 resist is not cleared and 1101.75 breaks, then 1095 area could be tested, then reversal is a buying opportunity.
(May 19-11:40) mike: sent a bit ago, sorry if repeat. The ES couldn't clear 1115 and falling again. The 1111.50-1112.00 area needs to be cleared / held to take some pressure off. Otherwise if the lows break then 1098-1095 zone could be in the cards.

(May 19-11:58) mike: 1098.50-1097.50 was tested, quickly reversed, should be a low or the day or more... a re test is a buying opportunity, for a scalp at least.

(May 19-12:55) mike: i'll be in and out of my office today, but will update if i see something. the ES broke a wedge to should dip again. -- if not, the key hurdle is now at 1112.00-1112.50, then 1115 area.

(May 19-13:13) mike: stair step up. a fast drop that stalls a few seconds over 1109 are scalp longs , the sprint up sell as they dont stay in higher high ground very long.

(May 19-13:41) mike: wedge pattern and a break/ hold of 1110 pus press on

(May 19-13:54) mike: The ES fell to the 1098.50-1097.50 zone and turned back up and now the drops are being bought. The sprints higher are being sold also in a choppy uptrend. As long as the 1110.50-1110.00 area holds, the trend will be up with the 1123-1124.50 as key resistance if they get that far. If that 1110.50-1110.00 is not defended then a reversal back to the downside occurs.

(May 19-14:09) mike: they need to make higher low than 1113 or the rally over, sell test of 1118

(May 19-14:18) mike: a big wedge/ channel break, a test of 16.50-17.00 would be ideal short if they get there and stall - 1115 is a lid now tho

(May 19-15:07) mike: the bounce is toast, 1105 supp1, then test of low/ 1112-13 good resist if reached
(May 19-15:10) mike: 16.50 reversal was ''by the ebook'' , a bounce to 1111.50 area now resist, 1105 should be key supp

(May 19-15:19) mike: not good when mkt can not rally from so oversold. shorts wont cover w/ mkt acting poor under 1111.50 area. it must break/ hold

(May 19-15:34) mike: the day will probably end in this range, its ok if 1111.25 holds. if not, close over 1107 is modestly bullish, under 1107 is bearish . have a good rest of your day

Tuesday - May 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 18-09:06) mike: 1144.00-1144.50 is 1st big area off flash-crash low

(May 18-09:53) mike: The 1148.00-1148.50 area on ES and 1931.75-1933.25 zone on NQ were rejected and that will be a top if 1142 is broken.

(May 18-10:29) mike: a 123 top on dow cash. those 1144.50 and 1926 good resist

(May 18-10:47) mike: they could bounce from 1136 area, but bounces to 42 area should fail and set up shorts

(May 18-11:12) mike: The ES topped about 20 minutes in, and after 1142 was broken a bounce to 1144.75 stalled/reversed while the Dow cash made a 123 top and a steady drop to 1133.00 occurred. The 1141.50-1142.00 area should be good resistance and a short if a pop to that area stalls out there. A two-sided day so far, so don't get married to a trade in this volatility.

(May 18-11:39) mike: wedge break, bounces are shorts unless 1140 exceeded and not reversed quickly

(May 18-11:48) mike: 34.75-35.50 resist

(May 18-12:10) mike: 1133-1134 has been pivotal for yesterday/ today. the ES needs to get over and hold that area to get out of trouble for a bit ,
(May 18-12:35) mike: 35.75 small resist here.
(May 18-13:12) mike: 33 should be strong resist now

(May 18-13:19) mike: 1124.50-1123.75 need to hold,/ reverse or a big down day occurs. still, upside is not a lot, 1130, then 1133 to still look for shorts

(May 18-13:23) mike: The bounces have all been sold and it should continue unless the 1133 level is exceeded, and not quickly reversed. The 1124.50-1123.75 could give a bounce, but if broken and not quickly reversed, then a bigger drop is in the cards today.

(May 18-13:39) mike: little wedge patterns on 2 min chart keeps breaking, 1128 resist now

(May 18-13:54) mike: 1124.50-1123.75 will need to hold on this or mkt is really bad looking, 1128 still resist to get out of trouble for a bit

(May 18-14:12) mike: 28 rejected, its still vulnerable under 1128

(May 18-14:28) mike: stair steps, staying under 1128 is bearish
(May 18-14:32) mike: 24 now is key/ trend resist to sell

(May 18-14:47) mike: 10500 on dow cash, 1117 on ES , both should be good support now, 1124 area now key resist and likely a short if tested and they stall/ rejected

(May 18-15:14) mike: 1117.50 good supp, should hold, 24-25 resist

(May 18-15:30) mike: 24.25 was a good spot to sell, thats now key resist

(May 18-15:54) mike: its trying to bottom, 1118 supp to end the day. have a good rest of the day

Monday - May 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

May 17, 2010 8:05 mike: 1130.00-1129.50 on es, 1900.75-1899.50 on nq both help pre open, it needs to hold on next test

May 17, 2010 8:55 mike: 36.50 key / pivotal early.

May 17, 2010 9:04 mike: The early strength was sold as the ES reversed 1140 about 10 minutes in and has been going down since then. The 1136.50 area needs to be cleared to take pressure off. The 1130.00-1129.50 area on the ES and 1900.75-1899.50 area on NQ were tested pre-open and held, so the initial support is "must hold" to avoid a bigger break down.

May 17, 2010 9:31 mike: 3650 area good resist, if short thats pivital this morn. and the 30.00-29.50 is key supp. its vulnerable under 36.50

May 17, 2010 9:44 mike: The ES bounced from initial support to the 1136.50 area twice, and both times rejected. Short under that area is the better odds trade towards 1124 if they break.

May 17, 2010 9:46 mike: audio updates in the early afternoon today , -- make or break right here

May 17, 2010 10:04 mike: 32 now good resist

May 17, 2010 10:18 mike: 1120.25-1119.50 should be seen if 1124 breaks and no quick reversal . 1129.50-1130 resist no

May 17, 2010 10:24 mike: 27.00-27.50 is trend resist, mkt still vulnerable under that

May 17, 2010 10:36 mike: The ES broke down through the 1130 level and kept going until reaching 1122.75, and that was quickly reversed. A bounce should see resistance at 1127.75, and maybe 1130-11131 which is key resistance if still in downtrends.

May 17, 2010 10:48 mike: 27.75 now key resist, must break over to dent downside mo.

May 17, 2010 10:54 mike: still 20.20-19.50 likely i think

May 17, 2010 11:09 mike: 1111-1110 should give a bounce. 1121 good resist . on audio in about 5 min or so for awhile. look for mic icon

AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO....AUDIO

May 17, 2010 12:20 mike: 18.50-18.00 needs to hold now. 24.75-25.50 is go0d resist ,

May 17, 2010 12:36 mike: at 60ema on 5 min, drop to 22.50-22.00 must hold , audio on in a few minutes

AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO....AUDIO

May 17, 2010 1:39 mike: The ES bounced to 1125.75 but holds 1122.00 on pullbacks. The 1126 level needs to be cleared and not quickly reversed to get a break-out higher. If that happens, look for 1130-1131 for strong resistance.

May 17, 2010 1:50 mike: 1131 should be good resist. if 1125.50 holds, no real harm done now, but if broken then 22 could be tested end of day

May 17, 2010 2:06 mike: 29.50-28.75 need hold

May 17, 2010 2:10 mike: 26.50 supp, then 22. bearish pattern, sell a test of 31 that stalls if reached

Friday - May 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Thursday - May 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Wednesday - May 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Tuesday - May 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 11-09:30) mike: 52.25-53.00 is key resist today

(May 11-10:33) mike: The lower open reversed from 1144.25 and made double bottoms and rallied to 1154.50 so far. The 1155-1156 area should be key resistance today, and 1144-1143 is key support. A test of the highs will likely be sold now that a small wedge pattern was broken.

(May 11-10:47) mike: they have a good bid at 52 that needs tp hold.

(May 11-11:07) mike: i am not feeling well this morning. next update in a few hours or less i hope. as long as dips to 1151.00-1150.00 hold, mkt in bullish mode, just beware of reversal near 56.50-57.00

(May 11-11:58) mike: back for now. the 62-64 zone is strong resist , a scalp short if reached *and* move stalls out/rejected - also, 1154.501154.00 is now a major area, and need to stay over that to avoid a break down.

(May 11-12:19) mike: a stall from 1163.75, the 61.50-61.00 supp now needs to hold on pullback . its been ''trend up'' since the open so make or break up here

(May 11-12:46) mike: After the last update the ES broke out over 1154.50 and held that on a pullback and the ES moved 10 points higher. It has been "trend up" since the open but there should be good resistance at 1164.00-1164.50 area. However, as long as the ES stays over 1161, no harm done. The 1172-1173 area is the big hurdle on this leg up, and should cause a turn if approached.

(May 11-13:21) mike: if 1162 area doesn't hold, then the trend up action changes to sell the bounces , still strong if tht holds

(May 11-13:48) mike: 62 held and now 62.50 is trend up support, 1172-1173 next resist and very key resist.

(May 11-14:01) mike: 64.50 should hold reverse if going for 1173 area today . or just to avoid a top now

(May 11-14:16) mike: 65.50-66.00 a short, a good setup if it pops there and stalls/ reverses

(May 11-14:33) mike: The ES made it to 1169 before reversing and dropped to 1157 so far. A break/ hold over 1162-1163 is needed to get out of trouble. If the highs are tested somehow, its a shorting opportunity for a swing trade as the 1173 area should be as far as a bounce goes, if a top not in already.

(May 11-15:03) mike: 52 could be a low
(May 11-15:03) mike: 58 resist

(May 11-15:28) mike: 1156.50 is pivotal / need to break it and hold on a dip, otherwise still vulnerable

(May 11-16:02) mike: tomorrow i will update a few hours via audio. have a great rest of the day

Friday - May 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 07-09:58) mike: 1126 is pivotal area now. great early action , sell bounces
(May 07-10:00) mike: The 1116.00-1115.50 zone on ES and 1864.00-1862.50 zone on NQ were tested and reversed on the open, and a run up to 1132.75 and 1900.25 occurred before stalling and rolling over again. The 60ema on 5 minute chart has been the lid on bounces and its a short on bounces until that is cleared / held.

(May 07-10:16) mike: a break / hold over 1120 needed to get out of trouble

(May 07-10:23) mike: avoid longs until they prove a turn. the bounces are aggressively sold,

(May 07-10:36) mike: ''fast market'' conditions on, this bounce should have resist at 111.50-1113.50 area
(May 07-10:40) mike: if 1104.75 holds they can pop up again
(May 07-10:40) mike: not now

(May 07-10:47) mike: The volatility is huge with good swings both ways. The 1109-1100 area should be very good resistance but if broken then 1119-1120 area would be a better area if they bounce that far and stall out. The 1098 area held twice and if broken then 1082.00-1080.50 should be key if they drop again through the lows.

(May 07-10:57) mike: stall just under 1109 resist, that shouldn't be exceeded now , they need to hold 1102.50 or a break down is in gear

(May 07-11:02) mike: a 4.75 point dip there just a tiny move. - in this volatility, cut back on position size and allow bit wider stop . nab 34 points on part of short , stop at breakeven
(May 07-11:02) mike: nab 3- 4 points, not 34
(May 07-11:04) mike: 1102.50 now a key area. buy there if reversed

(May 07-11:11) mike: 1110-1109 now good support. the 1122.75 is the 60ema. it has been the big reversal when tagged yesterday and this morning. its the bigger trend resist

(May 07-11:21) mike: if that 1116 isn't held then a dip to 1109-1108 needs to hold, or 1098 can be tested

(May 07-11:57) mike: 60ema has been holding this down. need to stay over 1122.50 , not reject again
(May 07-11:58) mike: fyi, for 60ema on 5 minute chart, its for regular trading hours chart. the start time is 9:30am open for stocks, stop time is the 4:15pm settlement for futures.

(May 07-12:09) mike: that 1115 low area is key support now, then 1106. this 26 area was rejected big earlier. key hurdle

(May 07-12:13) mike: Fast market conditions are making updates difficult. The ES broke / held 1109-1110.00 and sprinted to 1126.00 before dropping to 1106. The highs are being tested. As long as 1115 holds the market is if buy mode. Beware of 1134-36 for possible reversal.

(May 07-12:21) mike: careful w/ longs, a big wedge breaks if 21.25 break
(May 07-12:22) mike: a bounce is a short if not in
(May 07-12:26) mike: a wedge break second entry, or 123 top pattern would have been ideal. hope you sold longs at least. to fast to update and manage my trade today- cover part , 15 sup

(May 07-12:52) mike: just like ebook wedge 2nd chance entry , 1121-22 key now

(May 07-13:06) mike: here goes,
(May 07-13:06) mike: nq leading
(May 07-13:07) mike: 17 shouldn't even get close
(May 07-13:09) mike: 13 shouldnt be exceeded now
(May 07-13:10) mike: 08.50 target 1 small supp
(May 07-13:14) mike: 14.50-15.00 resist
(May 07-13:17) mike: fast rally, a retest of 1111 area tht reverses is scalp long
(May 07-13:19) mike: get out if you bought tht , no gusto

(May 07-13:44) mike: Watch the 1117.50-1118.50 if reached for a reversal if the market gets there and stalls out.

(May 07-13:49) mike: if this can manage to stay over 1115 they have a chance to get over 1120....... , if broken, that 1111-1110 turned into good support. , must be defended or drop to close

(May 07-13:55) mike: this weekend i'm going to be testing this message room for audio, so if you are a current member and have this open this weekend and hear me testing, please send an email telling me you heard me. thx. this great volatility should continue, looking for one more setup, then gone. so, have a great weekend. ''see'' you monday

(May 07-14:10) mike: if no bounce here, splat

(May 07-15:08) mike: 1098 very key

Thursday - May 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 06-09:17) mike: we aren't done with downside unless 1164 is exceeded and not rejected today

(May 06-10:05) mike: The ES bounced from 1157.50 (1158.00-1157.25 support) to 1164.50 (1164.75-1165.50 resistance) in the first 15 minutes. A drop back to 1158.50 was held, and that 1164.75-1165.50 was tested again. The 1158.00-1157.50 must be quickly reversed if tested again to have a decent low in place.

(May 06-10:23) mike: sell the pop to resist
(May 06-10:23) mike: 1155-54 supp should test
(May 06-10:26) mike: pressure on under 1160
(May 06-10:30) mike: 60.50-61.00 now a key area on a bounce

(May 06-10:44) mike: The ES tried 3 times to push through the 1164.75-1165.50 resistance and was soundly rejected. They must break and hold over that area to get out of trouble. A drop to the 1152.00-1150.25 area will need to be quickly reversed or the mid 1140's are in the cards before a turn-around.

(May 06-10:51) mike: 1155.00-1154.75 is just a minor zone from yesterday, 1152 is the key area. , and maybe 1148-47 if they hold under 58

(May 06-11:08) mike: 1157.00-1157.50 is good resist on this bounce from 1152.00-1150.25. the mkt still vulnerable and in poor shape unless that is cleared / held

(May 06-11:21) mike: that looks like a decent low, a test of the low that stalls and/or reverses is a buying opportunity

(May 06-11:32) mike: The trend down move reversed from 1148.50 and is bouncing back a bit to 1154.25 so far. A test of the lows that reverses would make a double bottom so watch that for a trade on the long side. However, the 1157-1158 area is now good resistance that must be cleared / held now to get out of trouble for a bit.

(May 06-11:39) mike: there was no gusto on the turn up. avoiding longs
(May 06-11:39) mike: for now
(May 06-11:44) mike: if they break , 1144-1142 area is next

(May 06-12:03) mike: small resist here 54.50, 51-50 supp should hold if a bottom is in

(May 06-12:21) mike: this is a scalp short under 57 resist

(May 06-12:27) mike: The ES tried to double bottom, but broke it before reversing from 1147.25 low. The bounce failed at the 1177-1178 zone so far and the market is still a bit vulnerable unless cleared. If the 1152-1151 area can hold the market can make another push higher but it will likely fail.

(May 06-12:54) mike: they are not staying under 49 very long but mkt is still short. be patient for run up to fizzle out then get short

(May 06-13:21) mike: this is huge support zone and mkt very oversold- so if unable to reverse from the mid 1140's per earlier update, then 1138 area is next . its still sell bounces unless 1154 broken. held

(May 06-13:26) mike: 47.50-48.50 resist. 3 other ounces were 6-7 pts, so 50-51 is a 6-7 point bounce off low to wtch too

(May 06-13:36) mike: 47.50 rejected. i think we can see 1138 area if 47.50 not exceeded

(May 06-13:47) mike: The ES sliced through 1152-1151 and fell another to points to 1142.50 so far. The NQ made a nice reversal from its 1921.50 low, so it could lead the market out of the hole. Still, the ES will need to break and hold the 1147.50-1148.00 area on a pullback to get turned around for a decent rally to occur.

(May 06-14:06) mike: its an emotional drive lower, bids being pulled all the way down. if 1138 area breaks, 10 points lower

(May 06-14:14) mike: 1140.75 is as far as a bounce should go. nq is lead dog

(May 06-14:21) mike: 1133.75-1135.00 zone god reist now.

(May 06-14:26) mike: they drpped 10 points easy, we cracked all kinds of supp on way down, a failure at resist should give test of low. i think that 1125 might stick, a double bottom possible

(May 06-14:34) mike: 1118/1117 then 1112 area for support, but no ''real'' support now

(May 06-14:46) mike: a windfall day for shorts. fast mkt conditions, don't jump in now. a big snap back likely,
(May 06-14:50) mike: 1116 is resist
(May 06-14:56) mike: the 1125-1128 area should offer some resist, reversal
(May 06-15:06) mike: they ok over 1120-1118
(May 06-15:09) mike: 1105-1103 is now a key supp

(May 06-15:32) mike: 1106.50 was pretty close given the volatility. they will be ok as long as that holds , just be cautious now for sure

(May 06-15:57) mike: wow. and the bounce stopped at 60ema on 5 min chart. have a great rest of the day

Wednesday - May 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 05-09:15) mike: 1158.25-1157.50 will need to hold or 1152-1150 in the cards. 1165.50 resist then 1170-1171 area

(May 05-09:51) mike: ism index top of the hour, 1160 must be exceeded / held on a dip to get out of trouble for a bit

(May 05-10:12) mike: gap on daily chart filled, ow 1162 needs to hold to keep ounce going

(May 05-10:23) mike: The gap down open was reversed from 1155.00 on the ES and has gone trend up to 1167.75 so far. A pullback needs to hold around 1162.50-1162.00 at the worst, or the trends turn over.

(May 05-10:31) mike: wedge pattern.
(May 05-10:33) mike: 62.50 must hold for a pop to 66-67 that stalls, that is a short.

(May 05-10:47) mike: 70-71 is next resist / potential reversal area. but the mkt is in short term bullish mode as long as they stay over 1162.50

(May 05-11:01) mike: now a test of the high *that stalls a minute or 2* is a short. a bigger channel/ wedge to break

(May 05-11:08) mike: a bearish pattern, a ounce from this support should fail

(May 05-11:18) mike: if this bounce off support gets to the 68.50 area that stalls would be a short.
(May 05-11:22) mike: 66 needs to hold to get another push higher,
(May 05-11:28) mike: 68.25 rejected, now 66 needs to hold or 1163-1162 possible
(May 05-11:31) mike: if u sold 68 area cover part here, trail stop on rest

(May 05-11:45) mike: there should be tradable pullbacks when the bounces stall and start to turn over,but odd better on long side unless or until there is a lower low on the 5 mi chart. 1165.50 now

(May 05-11:54) mike: The market has been in a choppy trend up since getting over 1162.20 and holding. This move should have tradable pullbacks, but unless there is a lower low made on the 5 minute chart the dips will be buying opportunities. IF the 1173.50-1174.00 area is not reversed, then we could see the 1177-1178 zone on this rebound.

(May 05-12:06) mike: 1173.50-1174.00 just missed, thats key resist today. 1169.50 must not break / hold or its a good top for awhile

(May 05-12:15) mike: lunchtime pullback. 1169.00 pivotal

(May 05-12:46) mike: having a network connect problem, back in 15 min

(May 05-13:12) mike: The ES reversed from the just under the 1173.50-1174.00 resistance but the pullbacks are holding. However, to avoid trouble the ES needs to get over 1168.50-1169.50 area and not turn right back down (like it has). The market should be range bound at worst as long as the 1162.50-1162.00 is broken and not quickly reversed.

(May 05-13:25) mike: they dont like 1170 handle , a scalp short if tested again
(May 05-13:30) mike: if 1170 touched then reversed, then a scalp short. mkt acting a bit tired

(May 05-13:44) mike: some really quick moves, if they pop up to 70 and stall out, should break lower. and 85 must quickly reverse
(May 05-13:45) mike: 1165 must reverse quickly

(May 05-14:00) mike: if they test the 68.50 and stall again short em

(May 05-14:05) mike: The ES reversed from the 1169.50 area and is dropping. The 1170 level needs to be exceeded and held on a pullback otherwise it's still vulnerable and then 1162.50-1162.00 would be a key area to hold/ reverse from. It must or down they go.

(May 05-14:32) mike: 1164 resist , the 1165.50-1166.50 - a short if a pop up stalls there

(May 05-14:47) mike: good resist at 1162 now. then 1163.5-1164.00 is transition resist. 1152.50-115.00 if low breaks

(May 05-14:57) mike: The market broke lower and ES took out 1162.50 which is now a resistance zone. If the bounce off of 1157.50 fails around 1163, then one more drop could occur before a good reversal starts.

(May 05-15:16) mike: 62.75 close enough, its now a key resist. if shorted, 59.50 target 1
(May 05-15:17) mike: 60 is ok on part. / 63 shouldn't be exceeded now

(May 05-15:26) mike: its late but since 63 was taken out, a pullback can be bought if a test 60.00-59.50 that holds and begins to turn up

(May 05-15:43) mike: mkt is not out of trouble just yet so careful long up there unless until 62.50 exceeded

(May 05-15:47) mike: i hope to get voice thru this for a few hours on a few days each week pretty soon. need to get their tech help. anyway, have a good rest of the day

Tuesday - May 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 04-09:41) mike: if 77.50 broken again then 72-71 is next supp

(May 04-10:34) mike: 1183 strong resist now. 72-71 should be seen

(May 04-10:44) mike: The big gap down open was reversed from the 1178.00-1177.50 area on the ES, but the move rejected 1183 and dropped down to the 1172-1171 zone. They could go for 1168-1166 zone before a good bounce. Resistance is 1178.25-1179.75 on a weak bounce to short.

(May 04-10:57) mike: 68-66 area is next , a small supp zone.

(May 04-11:05) mike: The 1168-1166 zone was quickly reversed but this action is ugly and in trouble unless the 1177-1178 area is exceeded and held. The 1162 area would be next.

(May 04-11:19) mike: lunch time countertrend move.... 73-74 souldn't be exceeded though , 70 needs to hold tho or lows are tested

(May 04-11:34) mike: the es spent only a few seconds under 1168.50. staying over that keeps mkt from more damage. 74-75 area is still good resist, then 78.50-79.50

(May 04-11:46) mike: 73.75 close enough to 74-75, that area will not be cleared/ held if mkt still in trouble

(May 04-12:06) mike: The ES bounced to 1173.75 and backed off. The 1174 level on the ES needs to be exceeded and then held on a pullback to erase the trend down action.

(May 04-12:17) mike: could drop towards 1162 if no double bottom.

(May 04-12:29) mike: 1168.50-1169.00 resist on es

(May 04-12:34) mike: small reation, nq / tech is dragging mkt lower , it needs to get over 1958-1960

(May 04-12:54) mike: 1170 supp, needs to hold ot this uptrend rolls over

(May 04-13:03) mike: 72.50 prerry stronng resist, its vulnerable under 72.50-73.00
(May 04-13:04) mike: if 1170 breaks this bounce is over

(May 04-13:16) mike: The ES dropped to a low at 1165.25 and bounced back to 1172.50, which was solid resistance, and is pulling back again. That 1172.00-1173.50 area will need to be cleared and held not to avoid a test of the lows. If the lows are tested, a reversal back up is possible but if broken 1162 is in the cards.

(May 04-13:31) mike: this is a bit early for a good short covering run, but good buying came in around that 1169 - a buy if tested AND reversed for a scalp

(May 04-13:53) mike: it didn't hold over 1172 so 1170.50 is first good supp, a pop to 74 area that stalls iss a short

(May 04-14:02) mike: The ES bounced back to 1173.75 before backing off, and now the pressure is on unless the 1174 area is exceeded and not quickly reversed.

(May 04-14:05) mike: if a break of 1169 not reversed , then 1162 could be seen to finish today on down note. atch 71.00-72.00 for another turn

(May 04-14:12) mike: needs to turn quickly here.

(May 04-14:16) mike: a scalp to 70.50 or better here on partat least
(May 04-14:18) mike: 72 should be key resist now, a test of low must hold or 62 in the cards

(May 04-14:43) mike: the es hasn't spent much time under 1168 with out quick reversal. if that is broken and not reversed quickly again, it skids twards 62

(May 04-15:05) mike: right with an hour left shorts squeezd, if they drop to 68.25-67.75 and sall out, scalp long

(May 04-15:23) mike: it was a good bounce, but this isn't like the prior big down days. a good rally back not as likely to stick this time .
(May 04-15:23) mike: 69.5068.75 is key supp here ed of day

(May 04-15:51) mike: fast both ways. a close under 1172 is negative
(May 04-15:51) mike: have a great rest of the day

Monday - May 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(May 03-10:20) mike: The market opened higher and the ES pulled back to 1189.50-1189.25 area and that was held and is key support now. The 1194.00-1194.50 zone should not be rejected, or we will get a decent pullback. If they do break and hold over 1194.00-1194.50 area, then the 1198.25-1198.50 area could be seen, but could be a short if reached and reversed.

(May 03-10:35) mike: sell a test of 1192-93 area if they stall out there

(May 03-10:46) mike: a big drop on the Tick, dumping stocks, sell the bounces , 1192 is pivotal

(May 03-10:56) mike: 86.75-86.00 needs to give a bounce
(May 03-10:57) mike: 90.00-90.50 small resist

(May 03-11:11) mike: The bounce was reversed after getting to 1193.25 and the ES dropped to test that 1186.75 level. That was quickly reversed, so a 2-sided day is possible. If it is broken then 1184.00 is next. The ES will need to get over 1192 and not reverse now to stay out of trouble.

(May 03-11:39) mike: unable to get thru 92 so far here, 90.50 will need to break to turn the trend

(May 03-11:49) mike: the mkt has a good bid on dips so far w/ one exception. the drops should be bought today it looks, a 2-sided day. a dip should hold 1191.50-1190.75 or things might change

(May 03-12:02) mike: 92.00 pivotal still, need to stay over it now

(May 03-12:24) mike: they based out at 92, the 95.5 area good supp now. 1198.25-1198.50 is very good resist

(May 03-12:55) mike: 98 now trend supp. 1201.50-1202.50 is the breeak down zone on last friday

(May 03-13:01) mike: close eough, sell a pop to test high it looks toppy just under good resist \

(May 03-13:13) mike: The ES ran up to 1200.75 and was reversed, and that should be reversal area if this is not going trend-up all day. The 1198 area did break and hold so far, and that is now pivotal. If 1198 is broken to the downside, then that 1200.75 should be a high for the day.

(May 03-13:22) mike: 98.25 is acting like 1192 did earlier. its a key supp that must hold.

(May 03-13:51) mike: The 1198 level held and the ES popped into the 1201.50-1202.50 resistance. The ES broke hard from that area on Friday and it will be hard to break above and hold. If 1198 breaks, then a drop back to 1193-1192 could occur before getting turned back up.

(May 03-14:18) mike: 1199 needs to hold now to keep the stair step higher going. if there is sprint to 1202.50-1203.00 it can reverse for a scalp

(May 03-14:41) mike: a dbl top at resist, shorting bounces now

(May 03-14:53) mike: holding 99 , bulls in charge still unless broken. its been stair stepping hire, the high gets sold so just be ready to sell at new highs that stall out too

(May 03-15:12) mike: 1199.25-1200.50 good resist

(May 03-15:38) mike: 97 area, its 60ema on 5 min chart , key area to close over

Friday - April 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 30-10:14) mike: The ES bounced off of 1201.50 key support to 1205.25 in the first 15 minutes and stalled out. A little 123 top and break of the 1201.50 level gave a fast drop to the 1193.50 so far. THe market is in trouble again, and bounces should fail. The 1202 area is resistance that should not be exceeded today.

(Apr 30-10:19) mike: 98.50 is small resist on a bounce, i will be away for most of today. bounces should not stick. go get em

(Apr 30-10:26) mike: if they break the lows watch 1192/1191 for a turn, it fills gap from . its 2012 on nq

(Apr 30-11:47) mike: Mike wanted me to remind you he will be gone until around 1:30-2:00pm. he may be done for the week, but he might send a note if he sees a trade. good luck

(Apr 30-13:41) mike: The 1202 area was rejected on the bounce and that set up a drop to the 1192.00-1191.50 zone where the market tried to bounce. It didn't stick and the 1188 area was tested and is giving a bounce. It looks like the ES needs to get over 1194 and not reverse to change things. If that happens, then the next area is 1196.50 and then 1201-1202 if the move doesn't reverse.

(Apr 30-13:54) mike: 94 area rejected, that should be it for bounce, a wedge forming too. needs to clear 94 and stick to avoid drop

(Apr 30-14:01) mike: cover 1/2 if you sold up there
(Apr 30-14:05) mike: last potential setup for me, the wedge break 2nd entry per the ebook. a failure near 93-94 area

(Apr 30-14:26) mike: a failure, but no quick drop so careful short, 92 now important supp
(Apr 30-14:28) mike: have a great rest of the day and weekend. not as easy as earlir, play defence

(Apr 30-14:37) mike: end of month has me cautious, but this could go to 82 area

Thursday - April 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Wednesday - April 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 28-09:27) mike: If the market is still weak, then the ES will not be able to get through the1190.50-1191.25 zone and stick.

(Apr 28-10:03) mike: The higher open was sold and the 1182.50 close is tested, but per last night the market is still weak unless 1190.50-1191.25 is exceeded/ held. I have to be away until 1130am this morning.

(Apr 28-10:53) mike: the ES can not stay over 1186 for very long. but also found support at 82 area... 2 sided trade unless 82 broken

(Apr 28-11:03) mike: the 60ema on 5 min chart is at 1187.75 , thats a key area to break / hold here , 85.50 supp
(Apr 28-11:08) mike: 86.00-85.50 area , last trapped, needs to hold to keep uptrend intact
(Apr 28-11:12) mike: a key spot here, if 87 braeaks then the trend changes
(Apr 28-11:15) mike: nq a short under 2005
(Apr 28-11:16) mike: 88.50-89.00 needs to be cleared
(Apr 28-11:20) mike: they cleared rsist and dropped, not on nq yet. but, they need to break 87.50-87.00 supp to turn trend here now

(Apr 28-11:28) mike: a wedge break, trade the 2nd entey on this

(Apr 28-11:32) mike: The ES made a little double bottom off 1182 and has bounced back to 1189.50 on the ES but lower high on the NQ. The break of a wedge just occurred, and so bounces are short under 1189.50 on the ES and 2004 on the NQ.

(Apr 28-12:02) mike: 1185 would need to be cleared and held to get out of this. the nq is leading the turns, keep a watch on that.
(Apr 28-12:09) mike: 82.75 is small resist, test of low if not cleared soon

(Apr 28-13:33) mike: this might be working now. 1185 broke./ held and thats a key area now. after fed rellease an update will be sent only if plenty of time to type it and still trade it. 1188-1189 are good resist that will be bullish towards 1197-ish if not quickly reversed

(Apr 28-14:10) mike: nq 2005-2006 a key spot now , 3 tops.
(Apr 28-14:11) mike: for supp, 1185 on es is the key area on a drop

(Apr 28-14:23) mike: 1190.50-1191.25 / 2010.50-2011.25 must clear and hold , 89 now imortant supp

(Apr 28-14:38) mike: look out below if 90.50 not exceded / held
(Apr 28-14:41) mike: tht should be it
(Apr 28-14:43) mike: need 89 to break

(Apr 28-14:49) mike: 86 supp / must stay over, or bad close

(Apr 28-15:12) mike: .must stay over 1186.50-1186.00 to keep the bigger trends up. a dbl top in place, if near 90 stalls is short w/ tight stop good odds

(Apr 28-15:22) mike: 90 rejected - a scalp only, 88.00-87.50 was high area pre fed, it is 1st good supp. if broken, then the 85 ill break too

(Apr 28-15:38) mike: 3 rejections, unable to stay over 1190, sell into the pops , this could break hard if 86 goes

(Apr 28-15:44) mike: 82.50 nxt
(Apr 28-15:46) mike: 1188.00-1188.50 now is a key resist to sell

(Apr 28-16:06) mike: a nice comeback , will close a few points over fair value if they close here near 91

Tuesday - April 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 27-10:20) mike: The gap down open reversed from the 1201.50-1201.00 support zone on the ES, but a bounce to 1205.00 failed and 1201.50 was tested again before turning back up. The 1203.50 area needs to hold now on a dip, and a move to the 1207-1208 area that stalls/reverses is a shorting opportunity.

(Apr 27-10:31) mike: 1207.50-1208.50 gap fill zone

(Apr 27-10:42) mike: gap filled, 1206.00-1205.50 is now support that needs to hold

(Apr 27-10:52) mike: a wedge type pattern broken, and from resist- the bounce is a short - reshort

(Apr 27-11:08) mike: the wedge break 2nd entry was ''by the book'' , now need a push thru 1203.50 and stick

(Apr 27-11:13) mike: they can bounnce here, but better odds / setups are short side, very poor action -- 1198.00-1197.50 needs to hold or its a bad day to be long

(Apr 27-11:19) mike: The ES formed a wedge pattern and the bounce off of 1204.25 was to the break-down level and the downside gathered momentum. The 1198.00-1197.50 zone now must hold, otherwise the ES could drop another 10 points before trying to turn around.

(Apr 27-11:23) mike: 1200 now trend resist, press is on unless that breaks and holds

(Apr 27-11:30) mike: 97-98 is now resist. if 1187 goes, then 1180-1179 next... if that breaks, we have a crashette.
(Apr 27-11:34) mike: we got the extra 10 points lower from break of 1197.50. this bounce should fail under 92.50-93.50 if staying in trend down mode

(Apr 27-11:42) mike: The ES tested and then broke 1197.50 and we got a drop of another 10 points and the market is trying to get some footing. A bounce should have trouble breaking and holding 1192.50-1193.00 if the trend down is still in gear. The 1197.50-1198.50 is next resistance if that's exceeded.

(Apr 27-11:56) mike: bounce failed under 92.50. that must be cleared / held to get anything going on the upside.

(Apr 27-12:09) mike: The ES bounced to 1191.50 and then dropped to 1187.00 and is still trying to get footing for a bounce. The Trin has been above 3.00 and the Vix jumped 18% intraday, like the last low on April 16th at this same area. The day is not over though, and unless the ES gets over 1192.50-1193.00 and holds on a pullback the market remains vulnerable.

(Apr 27-12:38) mike: this lunch time bounce could go towards 1190.50 if this 1188 is exceeded
(Apr 27-12:39) mike: a cluster of resist from 90.50-92.50 band that should be good resist

(Apr 27-12:59) mike: 1188.50 turning in to good support. need to hold over that to push to 91.50- 92 area

(Apr 27-13:30) mike: After the drop to 1183.50, the ES quickly reversed and after the first push higher a dip held at 1188.50 which is now a good support area. The 1197.50-1198.50 is next resistance as long as the ES can stay over the 1192.50 level.

(Apr 27-13:57) mike: if this 94.50 isn't taken out soon, then they drop towards 90.50 area, looks key on a drop

(Apr 27-14:22) mike: 94.50 was / is good resist and unless its exceeded and held the mkt still in trouble

(Apr 27-14:43) mike: 1185.50 is small supp, there is big supp at 1182.50 area. 1189.50 small resist, then the 1191.50 is resist to sell if a bounce can get there and stall/ reverse

(Apr 27-14:47) mike: The ES made a little double top at 1194.50-1194.75 area and rolled over. The 1191.50 level must be cleared and held on a pullback to get out of trouble today.

(Apr 27-14:49) mike: 88.50-89.00 is trend down resist , a short still under that

(Apr 27-15:23) mike: the bounce started right at 3pm. if no reversal here at 90.50 then 92.50-93.00 is key to end the day

(Apr 27-15:35) mike: a bounce should stop under 88.50 to close poorly

(Apr 27-15:51) mike: if short from higher up, i'm keeping part for a swing trade.. all key areas broken today

(Apr 27-16:10) mike: have a great rest of the day

Monday - April 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 26-09:51) mike: a parabolic move up , the turn came 12 minute in if 12 breaks, it could be a rush to get out

(Apr 26-09:59) mike: The follow through buying stalled/ reversed from 1216.25 in the first 12 minutes and quickly dropped 4 points before bouncing. The 1210 area is still key support, but the upside appears limited.

I have an appointment, will be back around noon.

(Apr 26-11:33) mike: The ES dropped to 1211.50 and turned back up to test the early high. It was rejected, and with the NQ lagging it should be tough to push through. The ES needs to get over 1215.00 and hold on a dip to avoid a double top.

(Apr 26-11:51) mike: short against 15, it is resist / must break -hold to avoid drop

(Apr 26-12:20) mike: double top and bottom. it looks like 13.50 is pivotal, and 1215 is a key resist that must hld if exceeded. stay w/ shorts still under resist

(Apr 26-13:04) mike: After pulling back from the 1216.50 high a bounce failed at 1214.75 and then the ES dropped to test its 1211.50 low. The market is churning range-bound, but now a break of 1211.50 should push the ES to the 1210.50-1210.00 key zone, and possibly 1208.00 area before a bounce.
If no break down, then on top the 1214.75 area needs to be cleared and not quickly reversed to get a push towards the 1217.50-1218.00 zone in gear. If they get there, beware of a reversal as the buyers backed away fast on the 2 punches over 1216 this morning. Otherwise, its a trading range until the 2:20-2:40 pm timeframe.

(Apr 26-13:25) mike: this is a small rising wedge, 1212.50 needs to hold or it breaks

(Apr 26-13:33) mike: now 12.50-13.00 resist

(Apr 26-13:58) mike: slow motion , but the pattern and 2nd entry resist played out.... 5.25 point range tho. the moves are just scalps so far . if 13.50-14.00 area is cleared, the rally can resume

(Apr 26-14:15) mike: buy program. the mkt will be ok as long as 11.25 is defended

(Apr 26-14:26) mike: The ES broke a small wedge pattern, but found support at 1211.25 and refused to break. As long as the 1211.25-1210.50 zone holds, no damage is done. If broken and not quickly reversed, then things could be changing. Just don't expect too much on the upside. If 1214 is exceeded, and held on a dip, then a move towards the 1217.50-1218.00 zone is in gear before a pullback occurs.

(Apr 26-14:31) mike: 1214 es, 2053 nq, 11240 dow cash all have been pivotal today. must clear or its a bearish setup

(Apr 26-14:57) mike: they are vulnrable under that resist across the board....
(Apr 26-14:58) mike: 1208.50-1208.00 is key if they break
(Apr 26-15:01) mike: 12.50-13.00 should be good resist

(Apr 26-15:15) mike: cover part of shorts at this 08.50-08.00 supp , trail on rest
(Apr 26-15:18) mike: 10.75-11.50 resist now, shouldn't be exceeded if going lower

(Apr 26-15:38) mike: 10.75 tagged, this zone should be a bounce high if going to test 1207.50low
(Apr 26-15:50) mike: they obeyed resist and supp well, mkt volatlity should increase tomorrow. have a nice rest of the day

Friday - April 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 23-09:25) mike: 1207 rejected pre open, thats key resist

(Apr 23-09:58) mike: 1201 pivotal held. news in 1 minutes now

(Apr 23-10:21) mike: The ES fell to the 1201.00-1200.50 pivotal zone 15 minutes into the day and bounced back to 1210.50-1212.00 zone. That's a big double top if 1206 is broken and not reversed.

(Apr 23-10:33) mike: a top, 04.00 small supp, then 1201 pivotal

(Apr 23-10:59) mike: short all bounces, it takes a break over 1207.50 that sticks to get the mkt out of poor action

(Apr 23-11:09) mike: The early bounce off of 1201.25 kept the market in uptrends, but then the rejection of the major 1210.50-1212.00 zone was a negative, especially after breaking 1206.00. If there is a bounce that stalls out under 1208, its a short as the market should struggle to hold gains.

(Apr 23-11:15) mike: i will be away for an hour or so, my apologies

(Apr 23-12:12) mike: the es has had 8 swings of 4 points , get 1 of those and its a good day. the 1201 supp tested twice, a thrid test normally should break

(Apr 23-12:26) mike: mkt is okay over 04.25 - a run to 07.50-08.50 will meet resist tho. need to stay over 04.25

(Apr 23-12:41) mike: The market chopped lower to test the 1201.50 level and bounced again. If the highs are tested, look for another reversal. If 1204 does not hold, then odds of getting there are not good as it could cause a break down.

(Apr 23-13:06) mike: 06.50-06.00 should/ must be solid support now on dip from 08 resist, or its breaking ,

(Apr 23-13:14) mike: 07.50 now supp, needs to hold / its 18 ema on 1 min chart too

(Apr 23-13:48) mike: mkt acting fine so fat. the 1205.75-1206.00 was a lid on bounce from 1201.50 support, then broke over it. it just held on a test. that need to be defended now. also, need break/ hold 1208 to squeeze shorts

(Apr 23-14:07) mike: The ES made it back to the 1208 area, and held 1206 on a pullback. That 1206 area is now good support that should/ must hold to keep the rally from failing.

(Apr 23-14:12) mike: stay w/ longs for no, but beware of 1210.50-1212.00 reversal

(Apr 23-14:24) mike: 1208 now needs to stay over on a dip, did once so far , its key now

(Apr 23-14:35) mike: 1208 quickly reversed, no harm done unless they hold under 1208
(Apr 23-14:39) mike: stalling out, need to get over 09 soon or a reversal is possible

(Apr 23-14:53) mike: 1209.50 now needs to be solid support. 1212 r

(Apr 23-15:10) mike: 1211.50 close enough to 1212. if 1209.50 is not held, then a top could be in.

(Apr 23-15:20) mike: 1211.25 now needs to hold

(Apr 23-15:49) mike: a chance of getting to 1220's is /possible/ early next week to top this off for another drop. around 1218 would be near miss, this should be worth the wait for a swing trade. for now, its still bullish
(Apr 23-15:51) mike: 1210 is trend support, they need to break that, then find it as resist on a bounce, to turn trends.
(Apr 23-15:51) mike: enjoy your weekend

Thursday - April 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 22-09:24) mike: if you have a core short position in put options, -- the es is 11 points under fair value, cover part into the gap down open - buy em back on a bounce

(Apr 22-09:32) mike: 1188.50-1188.0cover area
(Apr 22-09:33) mike: 1194 now good resist

(Apr 22-10:02) mike: pressure on under 91

(Apr 22-10:16) mike: 89.50 now needs to hold - 91.50-92.50 first key resist to break / hold

(Apr 22-10:35) mike: 95 filled gap on daily- 89.50 is the good supp, another day w/good volatility. hit and run unless a hold under 89.50 or over 95

(Apr 22-10:38) mike: The market gapped down and the ES dropped to 1186.25 in the first 20 minutes and reversed. We have another day with good volatility. As long as 1189.50 holds, the market will be okay. Beware of a reversal from near 1200 if 1195 can break/hold.

(Apr 22-10:52) mike: 92.50 must hold or down they go

(Apr 22-11:13) mike: 92.50 holding, but 95 gap fill has been good resist, its bearish under that. but if its taken out, then 98-99 a good resist

(Apr 22-11:31) mike: 92.50-93.00 resist now

(Apr 22-11:36) mike: The ES stalled out at the 1195 gap fill on the daily chart and rolled over again. The 1192.50 area now must be cleared and held just to get into nuetral territory.

(Apr 22-11:39) mike: that 89.50 needs to break, or we keep in a trading range

(Apr 22-12:34) mike: 94 area is 60ema on 5 min chart too. 92 now support that needs to hold. the way the mkt is acting today, we could go towards 98 or so before turning IF the bulls can push thru the 94.50-95.25 resist...

(Apr 22-12:54) mike: this pop should make lower high and reverse , wait for a stall
(Apr 22-12:59) mike: if they are going to roll over it should be starting in next 2 minutes and from under 1194.50. if not, not paying out as it normally does

(Apr 22-13:02) mike: ok, 98 could be in the cards now.

(Apr 22-13:19) mike: 94.75-94.25 shoud solid support on a pullback - trend support at 98.50 need to hold to keep from a drop

(Apr 22-13:35) mike: as of this morning open, near 1188 i recommened anyone in those w/ me be out of 2/3 of the put position . re establishing 1/3 up here near 1200 on es

(Apr 22-13:47) mike: 98 old resist now new support. a 123 type top possible forming on es. nq is keeping this bid up

(Apr 22-14:03) mike: The 1198 level broke and held and the trend up continues to the 1202-1203 zone so far. As long as the 1198 area is defended, then no damage is done. If it is broken, then more toppy action is happening. The NQ is leading the way, and that must get over 2038 and hold to avoid a bearish pattern.

(Apr 22-14:13) mike: big trading rannge this week, short at the top side, cover / buy at the bottom side.

(Apr 22-14:21) mike: quick rejection of 1202 resst. proof of supply to get thru

(Apr 22-14:33) mike: monday action was similar, big drop early, then good rally of 16.75 es points. range is 17.25 at 1203. 25.... still, this has gathered some momentum following nq so don't fade this ubless a scalp . 02.00-01.50 need to hold to keep this going

(Apr 22-14:39) mike: the nq parabolic move up needs to stay over 2032, otherwise that could trigger a reversal

(Apr 22-14:41) mike: i think we topped.
(Apr 22-14:43) mike: 02.00-01.50 needed to hold,

(Apr 22-14:51) mike: The ES popped over the 1202.50-1203.00 zone and reversed and now a break of 1198 would be a key spot to hold or else the market could get het late day.

(Apr 22-15:09) mike: gap days are often times trend days and thats been the case today. this could go up until last 15 minutes, BUT.a 123 pattern here, and that 1200 area should be pivotal. the bigger interday trend doesn't change unless that is broken and held. if it is, we could get hit pretty hard,

(Apr 22-15:22) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart at 1201 also. 1205 next. this should last until about 3:45pm if a pullback to 1201 holds

(Apr 22-15:45) mike: 1204 now good/ key supp its 3:45pm, that could be the high.

(Apr 22-16:11) mike: best trades all day at the close

Wednesday - April 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 21-10:06) mike: 1207.50-1208.50 on es and 2037.75-2038.25 on nq rejected for a decent drop. that could be a top, but still must break 1202 for a break down

(Apr 21-10:26) mike: just sell bounces under the highs
(Apr 21-10:30) mike: 1205 resist
(Apr 21-10:37) mike: The 1207.50-1208.50 zone on ES and 2037.75-2038.25 on NQ were reversed 30 minutes in to trading, and the ES dropped to 1202.25 so far. The upside appears to be limited, and if 1202 breaks without a quick reversal the downside could gather some momentum.

(Apr 21-10:46) mike: we went from resist to supp, both are key areas,. 04.50 now must hold or lows get tested.

(Apr 21-11:20) mike: if 1206 area tested again, adding to put position / the dow has a double top at its prior yearly high , and both es and nq rejected resist , nq dargging despite Apple earnigs

(Apr 21-11:28) mike: 1204 now good resist to sell

(Apr 21-11:34) mike: The first bounce off of 1202.25 reversed at 1206.00 and broke down thru 1202.00. The 1204.00-1204.50 area is good resistance on a bounce. The 1197.00-1196.50 should be tested if that 1204 area is not exceeded.

(Apr 21-11:39) mike: 1200.50 small reaist here

(Apr 21-11:48) mike: if they push up to 1202 and stall out, its a short. the transition to down would be ''proven'' short term.

(Apr 21-12:27) mike: lunchtime bounce. 04.50-05.00 resist. , 1201.50 needs to hold

(Apr 21-12:40) mike: a short/ scalp under 1205.5
(Apr 21-12:40) mike: 1203.50 a better buy on dip

(Apr 21-12:48) mike: need a hold here
(Apr 21-12:48) mike: the next pop will be sold
(Apr 21-12:50) mike: a wedge type pattern on 5 minute chart. trade a break like the ebook says

(Apr 21-12:56) mike: The ES bounced off of 1198 and made it to the 1204.50-1205.00 zone. A wedge pattern is forming, so a break of that sets up a good short on a bounce back that stalls/ reverses under 1205.00.

(Apr 21-13:35) mike: that should be the bounce high at 03

(Apr 21-13:50) mike: that 03 is gettging rejected / need to break/hold over 03 to avoid drop

(Apr 21-14:04) mike: they pop up, then drop 1 point quickly. that has been the ''easier'' trades, mostly scalps. can stay with shorts, ot scalp a long i f 1200 reverses, but this bounce feeble

(Apr 21-14:09) mike: am covering 1/3 of the puts on test of 1198 today if its reached . holding rest for another day

(Apr 21-14:17) mike: cover 1/3 puts into the emotion

(Apr 21-14:21) mike: 97.00-96.50 should be seen, just to fill small gap on daily chart at 96.50. the 1201.50-1202.00 now resist
(Apr 21-14:26) mike: 97.00 met, still 1 min chart 9 and 18 ema still trend guide

(Apr 21-14:32) mike: 98 now resist
(Apr 21-14:38) mike: 1194.00-1193.50 and 2019 nq is next good support

(Apr 21-14:59) mike: its a very feeble bounce, 1199-1200 good resist now

(Apr 21-15:21) mike: 98 is a key support. a test of that should / must hold, or the mkt will be in for more downside to 94-93 area . 1201-1202 strong resist now , should't be exceeded
(Apr 21-15:23) mike: another wedge
(Apr 21-15:25) mike: a bounce off 98 should fail

(Apr 21-15:34) mike: a better bid off 98 than thought, but mkt still vulnerable under 1201-1202. powder dry

(Apr 21-15:45) mike: 1201-1200 is pivotal the last few minutes, mkt ok unless broken

Tuesday - April 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 20-09:41) mike: 96.50 target 1

(Apr 20-09:47) mike: 99 was supp pre open, if broken then to 96.50 or lower

(Apr 20-09:58) mike: dow cash 11,000 is the support tht needs to break ,no damage done until then but not much upside potential

(Apr 20-10:20) mike: 96.50 should be seen

(Apr 20-10:25) mike: The gap up open was sold and the market is pulling back. If 1196.50 is tested and reversed it could cause a bounce. If that does not hold, then 1193-1192 would be key this morning.

(Apr 20-10:33) mike: 99 resist now

(Apr 20-11:22) mike: the double top can be it for the bounce, the 1199 is pivotal this morning , its supp

(Apr 20-11:36) mike: The 1197.00 level was tagged 3 times and a choppy bounce to test the highs occurred. It lookes like the NQ needs to get over 2018 and stick to avoid a pullback soon. If 1197 holds, then no damage, but if broken then a top could be in.

(Apr 20-12:01) mike: gap days are often times trend days. if 1200.50 holds, the upside stays intact. just beware of a reversal here if the 1203.50-1204.50 zone is rejected

(Apr 20-12:18) mike: 18 ema on 1 min hart is trend support. 1203.50 now needs to hold.

(Apr 20-12:29) mike: 13.50 needs to hold oe they topped

(Apr 20-12:36) mike: 1203.50 holds, but mkt getting tired, losing momentum... short the next pop

(Apr 20-12:43) mike: scaling into some puts up here

(Apr 20-12:52) mike: the 20ema on 5 min chart just was touched at 02.25, but a bounce is sill a short. 1199.75 more important support

(Apr 20-13:01) mike: The market pushed through its early highs, but the ES backed off after a poke over 1204.50 was reversed. The ES needs to stay over the 1202 area to avoid reversing. A move back to test 1204.50-1205.00 that stalls/ reverses sets up a good short, if only for a scalp.

(Apr 20-13:13) mike: mkt is vulnerable and ES needs to get over 1204 and stick, not reverse again, to avoid a drop towards 1199.75 or so

(Apr 20-13:45) mike: That should be it for the bounce, 1204 now key resist... channel break likely

(Apr 20-13:50) mike: The ES is holding over 1202.25 but struggling to get over 1203.75 on 3 tries. The market is vulnerable to a bigger drop if that 1204 area is not exceeded and then held on a pullback.

(Apr 20-14:04) mike: the 1.50 point range over the last 75 minutes, a break down should give a good move

(Apr 20-14:12) mike: 1201.00 symmtry, 1199.75 is the key area, and still is a gap on daily chart 1196.50 for support.

(Apr 20-14:23) mike: a test of the 1202 should hold, the mkt doesn't reverse unless they go thre and can not quickly turn back up..
(Apr 20-14:24) mike: only scalps in this environment.

(Apr 20-14:32) mike: ineed to see 1204 exceeded/ =held= to not focus short up here

(Apr 20-14:40) mike: tricky action, these pops keep getting rejected , but can not drop too much. waiting for clairity
(Apr 20-14:45) mike: The ES dropped to 1201.25 but that was quickly reversed. The upside should continue to be a struggle. If the ES breaks 1202 again and does not turn right back up, then the move could reverse.

(Apr 20-15:01) mike: 1203.50 old top of range needs to hold now or it gets a drop to 02
(Apr 20-15:04) mike: dbl top,

(Apr 20-15:16) mike: a bearish pattern, bounce should not take out 04.25
(Apr 20-15:18) mike: i got some puts up there earlier. a bounce, if we get one, add to it'

(Apr 20-15:27) mike: that 1202 needs to hold, otherwise a transition to the downside. it happens this afternoon or in the morning as long as the double top is on the charts

(Apr 20-15:44) mike: that 1204 should be it for the bounce, now a close under 1202
(Apr 20-15:45) mike: is a bearish / topping pattern
(Apr 20-15:45) mike: have a good rest of the day

(Apr 20-15:57) mike: be short something
(Apr 20-15:57) mike: obviously limited upside
(Apr 20-15:57) mike: take care

Monday - April 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 19-10:08) mike: 89.50-89.00 needs to hold , otherwise a reversal occurs

(Apr 19-10:23) mike: nq a better short at resist fyi
(Apr 19-10:23) mike: The lower open was bought and a bounce back to the 1193.00-1193.50 resistance zone on the ES and 2016.00-2016.50 zone on the NQ were reached. A pullback needs to stay over 1189.50-1189.00 on the ES to avoid a reversal of this trend. If the resistance zones are broken/held, then 1199.50-1200.50 would be next.

(Apr 19-10:31) mike: 92 should not be exceeded/ held -- 2010-11 resist on nq

(Apr 19-10:51) mike: pressure is on unless nq gets over 20072008 and not reverse , 1191.00-1191.5 es

(Apr 19-11:02) mike: the 90.00-90.50 area needs to be cleared to keep 2 sided day outlook alive. trend down otherwise, with nq leading the way
(Apr 19-11:09) mike: 2 min chart, 15 sma is trend guide here on the way down.

(Apr 19-11:13) mike: The market rejected good resistance and the move down has been a grind lower. That type of action is more sustainable than the quick moves. The ES would need to take out 1191.00-1191.50 and not quickly reverse to change this.

(Apr 19-11:48) mike: 88.00-88.50 very good resist now -- 1182.75-1182.00 a key support that must be reversed, else 1178.00-1177.50 zone is next

(Apr 19-12:00) mike: 85.00-85.50 good resist. the 81.50 globex low met. still is a short on bounces

(Apr 19-12:17) mike: The grind lower has the market breaking the Friday lows and very close to the 1178.00-1177.50 support. Still, the ES needs to get over 1185.00-1185.50 to dent the downside momentum, and 1188.50 to get out of trouble today. Otherwise, the grind could take the ES towards 1171-1170 area.

(Apr 19-12:18) mike: still following nq, its lead all the way down

(Apr 19-12:25) mike: that could be a low for a bit. watch for a stall near 85 for re short, a scalp down here

(Apr 19-12:49) mike: this area should be sold if we're going back down

(Apr 19-13:04) mike: 82.50 small supp

(Apr 19-13:15) mike: The bounce stalled out just under the 1185.00-1185.50 zone and pulled back. The market will stay vulnerable unless that area is cleared, and then held on a pullback. The NQ has been very weak, at it must clear 1994 to take some pressure off.

(Apr 19-13:17) mike: a look of a rising wedge per ebook

(Apr 19-13:49) mike: wedge about to break, the mkt still bearish under 85.00-85.50

(Apr 19-14:03) mike: wedge broke, this bounce should fail

(Apr 19-14:17) mike: tha reversal off 81 .00 means a good bid down there. suppy to eat thru, but the 84 area should hold, now to stay in uptrends, if broken then down they go.

(Apr 19-14:25) mike: The ES dropped to 1181.00 and quickly reversed from that 1181 level, takiking out 1185.00-1185.50 resistance. The 1185.00-1185.00 area needs to hold now, otherwise the the downside could get control again.

(Apr 19-14:27) mike: 9 18 ema on 1 min is trend support. 86.50-86.00 support

(Apr 19-14:34) mike: 87 now needs to hold

(Apr 19-14:43) mike: now trend spport at 88.50 at lowest

(Apr 19-14:54) mike: the 89.50-90.50 zone there, 2000 area nq, should be highs for this bounce - 85.50-8500 is the buy area if held / reversed. if 90.50 exceeded, a push back to the 93 area will be a key zon to hold.

(Apr 19-15:16) mike: 90.50 needs to continue to hold
(Apr 19-15:20) mike: broken by 1 tick, its stall ok over 90.25/90.00

(Apr 19-15:29) mike: if they can push thru 1193.00-1193.50 , a squeze towards 98.50-99.50 a good resist / shorting area

(Apr 19-15:37) mike: failed to push thru resistance. a bounce is sold under 93 resist - 123 type top possible here.

(Apr 19-15:46) mike: the mkt is ok to end the day, 1190.25 is a transition area now. only a break/ hold of that turns em back down
(Apr 19-15:46) mike: have a good rest of the day

Friday - April 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 16-09:18) mike: 1205-1206 area good initial resist

(Apr 16-09:52) mike: 1206 area filled gap on daily chart, and was initial supp. a key resist now.

(Apr 16-10:02) mike: The gap down open was bought, but the 1206.50-1205.50 zone was as far as they bounced before rolling over. The drop to the 1200.50-1199.50 zone held so far, but the 1204 area must be cleared to get into nuetral ground, and over 1206 to get out of trouble.

(Apr 16-10:22) mike: from resist to supp back to resist... 04.00 needs to hold, else this is a 6 point range this morning

(Apr 16-10:32) mike: 1204 broke/ held so far and is pivotal. mkt ok as long as it holds / it reverses if broken.
(Apr 16-10:36) mike: sell em aginst 1206,
(Apr 16-10:41) mike: tht was the fastest 123 reversal in years. bounces should all fail. stay w/ shorts under 1204.50-1206.00 zone

(Apr 16-10:48) mike: The ES bounced to 1206.00 and when 1204 broke the downside was fast to 1197.50. The Goldman news isn't good and the market is fragile already. Unless 1206 is exceeded, and not reversed, the market is vulnerable and the 1192.50-1191.50 might be seen on this leg down.

(Apr 16-10:57) mike: 1192.50 zone met. still, its broken down and bounces should be sold . 97.5 resist

(Apr 16-11:11) mike: The 1192.50-1191.50 was reached and a bounce to 1197.75 failed. The market is under pressure and a move back over 1202 would be needed to arrest the downside momentum.

(Apr 16-11:14) mike: 1188-87 next

(Apr 16-11:31) mike: bounces are 5.25 pts so far. the pops that stall are good entries if you aren't short from higher

(Apr 16-11:56) mike: 1191-1192 is good resist, it must be cleared to get a decent bounce. gap days are often times trend days, so stay w/ the shot side

(Apr 16-12:08) mike: The break of the 1192.50-1191.50 zone brought in more selling down to 1184.50 so far. That 1191.50-1192.50 is good resistance. Gap days are often times trend days so stay with shorts unless that 1192.50 is exceeded/ held.

(Apr 16-12:35) mike: 1185-1183 is where the mkt had transition to the upside on the 8th and 9th. if they break under that zone, 1178-1177 is next. 1171 is major . nq leader stay w/ its trend

(Apr 16-12:51) mike: kind of like at new highs, the new lows are being reversed. if 82.50 is tested, scalp a long trade, just don't overstay that side just yet. the vix has jumped 23% and trin over 3.00, those seen near trading lows. the nq should be a better play on a long.

(Apr 16-13:09) mike: 1 min chart 9/18 ema at 88.50-88.00 must hold

(Apr 16-13:16) mike: 86.5\0-86.00 small support

(Apr 16-13:28) mike: 86.50 held, but no gusto on bounce, a 123 type top possible.

(Apr 16-13:44) mike: The ES bounced to 1189.50 and the NQ reached 2011.50 before backing off. The 1186 area on the ES will need to hold, otherwise the lows could be tested. The Vix jumped 23% and the Trin is over 3.00 so a test of the lows could be reversed.

(Apr 16-14:05) mike: a good cluster of resistance around 92.50 -- option expiration, lows in place for now

(Apr 16-14:13) mike: a drop to 89.00-88.50 will need to hold now
(Apr 16-14:17) mike: if 92 can hold then 97.50-98.00 is next

(Apr 16-14:21) mike: The 1186 level held, and 1192.50 was exceeded. However, the move up started early and a decent pullback needs to hold 1189 now to stay out of trouble.

(Apr 16-14:23) mike: 92 should be key now, if broken then a pullback is underway.

(Apr 16-14:35) mike: 92 was reversed. need to get over 93.50 to avoid drop here
(Apr 16-14:35) mike: 89.00-88.50 supp

(Apr 16-15:03) mike: 89.00-88.50 tested, but not crazy abot longs here yet
(Apr 16-15:05) mike: 91.25should be tough to break / hold

(Apr 16-15:11) mike: 91 rejected. that should be pivotal to end the day.

Thursday - April 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 15-10:00) mike: short under the 06 level - turn 30 minutes in - nq weaker
(Apr 15-10:04) mike: to break the trend, the little double bottom at 04.75 needs to break

(Apr 15-10:20) mike: The lower open was bought, then after a bounce the pullback made a little double bottom at 1204.75 and rallied to the 1207.75 resistance so far. As long as 1206 is held on a pullback, the market is still in decent shape but if broken/ held then 1203.50 must hold in a drop.

(Apr 15-10:33) mike: its a stair step higher until a break of 1206.50. 1208 needs to be taken out soon or they break.
(Apr 15-10:37) mike: 1208 now small supp. 09.50 symmetry for resist. a short for a scalp

(Apr 15-10:47) mike: if you sold 1209.50 scratch it, need to break  08.50 now
(Apr 15-10:48) mike: if 08.50 breaks, the the next bounce would be a short

(Apr 15-11:11) mike: that 1210.50 so far has stalled out. if not for strong nq its a good short . still iis
(Apr 15-11:12) mike: tight stop and for a scalp to 09 or so
(Apr 15-11:15) mike: 09 held so far but its a top for awhile up there, if 08 breaks its then 06 key supp

(Apr 15-11:20) mike: just short bounces now, even if they bounce off 08, the reward/ risk much better short near 1210

(Apr 15-11:43) mike: if nq breaks 2031 it will be the first break of 15 sma on 13 minute timeframe sine tuesday afternoon
(Apr 15-11:47) mike: they need to get over 1208 and hold to get out of trouble now

(Apr 15-12:10) mike: 1206.75 small resist - 2 min chart 15 sma guide on bounces so far

(Apr 15-12:19) mike: should fail to hold this bounce amd stop near 07.50 and drop thru 04.50 soon, otherwise a trading range day

(Apr 15-12:27) mike: 07.50 did its job, now a push thru 04.50 is needed to put pressure on

(Apr 15-12:58) mike: 1204.50-1204.00 is pivotal now... a transition zone from yesterday/ this morning. and if 1207.50 not exceeded, its a head/ shoulders ''neck line''

(Apr 15-13:21) mike: as log as 1208 holds its still okay. if broken, then still in range

(Apr 15-13:33) mike: The ES made a lower low by 1 tick and turned up quickly. That 1204.50-1203.50 zone is now a key support today. A pullback should hold there or above, otherwise a break of that zone could change things. A move that takes out 1210.50 resistance should have trouble around the 1212.00-1212.50 zone.

(Apr 15-13:45) mike: 1208.50 needs to hold \
(Apr 15-13:47) mike: if not held, 06.75 next key spot

(Apr 15-14:05) mike: 1208 now good supp. if going to take out highs, they need to hold
(Apr 15-14:06) mike: 1212.00-1212.50 is key area

(Apr 15-14:38) mike: real top heavy, look for a scalp short up there

(Apr 15-14:43) mike: this could take a spill if 1210 not seen in next few minutes , by 3pm latest if not now

(Apr 15-14:51) mike: The ES bounced back to 1209.75 and has churned between that high and 1208 on the bottom side. That 1208 needs to hold or they roll over. If new highs made, look for 1212.00-1212.50, possibly 1218 area if they can cause a squeeze higher.

(Apr 15-15:09) mike: have a short of some sort on,, this could give way if cant get over 1210 without rejection
(Apr 15-15:11) mike: a rejection of 1210 a scalp short.

(Apr 15-15:16) mike: 1208.25 is good supp, shorts are just scalps for today . must hold that or trends can roll over again

(Apr 15-15:28) mike: 1208.75-1209.25 good rest, should not be exceeded

(Apr 15-15:38) mike: a bounce should n't get thru 1208.00-1208.50
(Apr 15-15:40) mike: 1206.00-1205.50 support, a close under that is bearish
(Apr 15-15:41) mike: enjoy the rest of your day

Wednesday - April 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 14-12:32) mike: There was a reversal after 20 minutes of trading, then the 1195.50-1196.25 initial resistance zone turned into support and the ES has made it to the 1202.50-1204.00 zone. As long as 1200 holds the trends are strongly to the upside. The 1196 area in now the key support that must hold on a pullback.

(Apr 14-13:08) mike: trend up day unless 1200 broken
(Apr 14-13:09) mike: a dip due tho, careful long here , a dip better odds

(Apr 14-13:38) mike: nq topped, if 2019 isnt held / reversed. es needs to stay over 1202.75

(Apr 14-13:45) mike: 02.75-03.25 resist

(Apr 14-13:54) mike: must get back over 02.75 resist and hold to avoid roll over
(Apr 14-13:57) mike: Fed's Beige Book in 2 minutes , if short keep stop in place / cover part i front of this

(Apr 14-14:10) mike: The ES poked over 1204 and reversed, but the market still has a good bid on pullbacks. The 1201.50-1200.50 area is key support now. As long as a pullback/ drop can bounce off of that on a the upside stays intact. If that is broken this afternoon, then that 1204 area could be a top and a reversal back towards the 1196 area would then be possible.

(Apr 14-14:12) mike: a 123 top pattern is possible, use the 2 min chart for a trigger if that sets up

(Apr 14-15:14) mike: dow 11100 now looks like its pivotal up here. must stay over, or can reverse

(Apr 14-15:33) mike: 04.50 should hold

Tuesday - April 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 13-10:00) mike: 92.50 is strong resist and a short w/ tight stop

(Apr 13-10:23) mike: The market is under pressure and only a break/ hold over 1192 on the ES and 1998 on the NQ can change this short term. If 1188 is not held then 1182.25-1182.00 is the major area that must be reversed to avoid a top.

(Apr 13-10:27) mike: 89.50-90.25 good resist

(Apr 13-10:35) mike: puts bought yesterday, cover half em down here

(Apr 13-10:44) mike: 1185.00-1184.50 is pivotal. if broken, must be quikly reversed, else 82 is next, then 78-77 is next major area. 88.00-88.50 resist here

(Apr 13-10:53) mike: 1188.00-1188.50 now new resist. 91.25 a key resist

(Apr 13-11:10) mike: The ES dropped to the 1185.00-1184.50 zone and bounced. The 1188.00-1188.50 area must be cleared and held on a dip, otherwise the downside has more to go.

(Apr 13-11:27) mike: 88 needs to hold now , or rolls over again - 89.50-90.25 next resist key area now

(Apr 13-11:51) mike: slow motion, looks vulnerable , wegde can break
(Apr 13-11:54) mike: 89.25 early low, then the break dn level. it is strong resist. its also 11,000 dow cash

(Apr 13-12:14) mike: if 87.50 is't broken, a pop back to 89.25-89.75 is a cluster of resist, should be a key zone

(Apr 13-12:22) mike: 89.75 should be tested , 88.75 should hold

(Apr 13-13:11) mike: The ES took out 1188.50 and is stair-stepping higher. The bounce off of 1185 support keeps the market in a range, however the 1193-1194 area should offer good resistance. The 1189.50-1189.00 area is now trend support, and if broken then the move reverses.

(Apr 13-13:18) mike: if they get ck up to 92 area, short w/ tgt stop
(Apr 13-13:20) mike: nq 1999-2001 zone shoud see bids dry up, sellers step in. did once, a test is key now

(Apr 13-13:39) mike: unless / until there is a break of the stair step up, at 90.75 now, the better odds are buying dips. if there is a reversal pattern, then scalp short, but there has been a good bid on dips so far

(Apr 13-14:01) mike: 92.50 needs to hold now or its a red flag . its trend up otherwise
(Apr 13-14:07) mike: short 93-94 resist , stop just over resist for a scalp. stalling a bit - a scalp only right nw

(Apr 13-14:13) mike: if 92 breaks, then its a top for awhile

(Apr 13-14:20) mike: The ES stalled out at 1193.50 and backed off, however unless the 1192 area is broken and not quickly reversed, the market is okay. If broken then the trends should turn.

(Apr 13-14:28) mike: a 123 type top pattern on es, 93 shouldn't be exceeded to roll over
(Apr 13-14:30) mike: 91.50 symmetry/ key area late day
(Apr 13-14:33) mike: very fast reversal at 91.50, dips have been 1.50 points. that is now important to stay over to avoid a reversal

(Apr 13-14:56) mike: prairie dog
(Apr 13-14:59) mike: can keep sneaking down

(Apr 13-15:05) mike: 91.50-91.00 needs to hold now, or the mkt will be under pressure to 89-88 again . 93.50-94.00 obviously good resist, 2002 area on NQ in front of INTC earnings

(Apr 13-15:21) mike: 94.25-94.00 should / must hold, 1192 -1191.50 is the key area to stay over
(Apr 13-15:28) mike: 94.25-94.00 held, needs to stay over or 92 will be tested
(Apr 13-15:32) mike: The 1192 level held and the ES reached 1195.75 but if 1194 breaks they can get sold to 1192.00-1191.50 pivotal support

(Apr 13-15:55) mike: puts re buy 1/2 covered this morning

Monday - April 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 12-08:50) mike: the ES reached 1198.50 resistance last night about 10 min or so after gapping up open - they haven't been back there since. that might be the top for futures. nq was 2001 too. so, the short side on a decent bounce has very good odds. 1191 looks pivotal in the early going for support.

(Apr 12-09:10) mike: ok, good supp at 91 on es and 1990 on nq. mkt may not rally too far before dropping, but no damage done unless that support broken

(Apr 12-09:47) mike: 1194.25-1195.00 sell zone, stop just over 95
(Apr 12-09:48) mike: 93.50-93.00 supp must hold

(Apr 12-09:56) mike: that could be a top, cover part at 92.75 or better here, keep part on for swing trade in case

(Apr 12-10:21) mike: The 1194.25-1195.00 zone was sold and the ES dropped 4 points from 1194.75 to 1190.75 before a bounce. That high should not be exceeded, but if it is, the ES reached 1198.50 last night, which is the 1198.50-1199.50 zone, and that should be rejected if reached today. A break of the 1191 area that is not quickly reversed would change things.

(Apr 12-10:33) mike: as long as 92 holds, trends stay up so scalp trade shorts att resist until thats broken / held

(Apr 12-10:42) mike: 92 needs to hold, its bottom of a wedge/ triangle.
(Apr 12-10:45) mike: can scalp long at 92 also, but if broken look out ,

(Apr 12-11:17) mike: sell em, tight stop just over high 3 ticks... a wedge type pattern, nq weakening , stall at resist.
(Apr 12-11:22) mike: 93.50 should be rejected if going lower

(Apr 12-11:30) mike: The ES bounced to 1194.50, stalled, then backed off again. Unless that area is cleared, the market is under pressure and shorts are better odds trade down to the 1188 area.

(Apr 12-11:35) mike: a bounce to the wedge break area is normally sold,

(Apr 12-11:45) mike: per usual of late, the drops are bought up after a quick, small dip. 94.50 has been good resist, but staying over 1188 keeps the mkt from gettig hit hard. if there is a drop to there its a buy if reversed

(Apr 12-13:09) mike: The ES reached 1191.75 on the pullback and crawled its way to 1195.50 so far. As long as the 1193-1192 zone is not broken, we could still see the 1198.50-1199.50 zone but a failure up there could start a decent pullback.

(Apr 12-13:27) mike: 94.50 now supp, needs to hold to try for 98.50 - if broken, they roll over
(Apr 12-13:33) mike: 94.50 holding . one thing to watch, vix 15 and change, a reversal would give 4 sell sigs. that and a break/ hold under 94.50 here

(Apr 12-13:55) mike: buying puts up here, very cheap and mkt in position to sell off soon

(Apr 12-14:13) mike: The ES popped up to 1195.75 but that was sold and we got a pullback to 1192.75 so far. That 1193-1192 area, along with 1994 on the NQ, need to hold or else the market could roll over.

(Apr 12-15:09) mike: mkk doesn't get nervous as long as 93 keeps holding - these pops get rejected, but things don't change unless a break/ hold of that area

(Apr 12-15:16) mike: it could bounce a bit more, but the next good swing is down , not buying nothing up here
(Apr 12-15:19) mike: 1994 on nq is equivalent to 93 on es, key supp
(Apr 12-15:24) mike: 94 a short.
(Apr 12-15:26) mike: 95 should not be seen again. it will be gift short if tested
 

Friday - April 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 09-09:42) mike: key resist rejected on nq , 1983-84 must be exceeded/ held on this bounce
(Apr 09-09:48) mike: more than 2 point drop, dynamics changed

(Apr 09-10:11) mike: 86.50

(Apr 09-10:13) mike: The 1186.25 level on ES and 1981.50-1982.50 zone on the NQ were sold in the first 5 minutes and dropped to 1183.25 and 1975.00, respectively, before turning back up. The sprint to the 1188.00-1189.00 zone fizzled but 1186.00 needs to break/hold for a reversal.

(Apr 09-10:32) mike: sell pops, stops over the high. 86 resist , 83 supp key now , scalp until
(Apr 09-10:32) mike: range breaks

(Apr 09-10:54) mike: 86 is ''must hold'' again , 1982 on nq more important it looks

(Apr 09-11:05) mike: 1980.25 on NQ had aggressive buyers, that is the key area i'm watching below - we top if not held

(Apr 09-11:23) mike: The reversal off 1188.25 and break of 1186 accelerated to 1183.00 and they quickly reversed. The market will be in decent shape as long as the 1184.50 level on ES and 1980.25 on NQ are broken.

(Apr 09-11:36) mike: that dbl top ar resist should be it for the bounce, but good supp at 86 now

(Apr 09-11:51) mike: th 88-89 has been sold, but still mkt is ok . but if a dip breaks 87, then a wedge is breaking and then things change

(Apr 09-12:05) mike: if not for nq being strong this would roll over from 88-89 resist, nq needs to break 1983 area to turn trends

(Apr 09-12:20) mike: The ES stalled out at the 1188-1189 zone but must break/ hold under 1187.50-1187.00 to turn the trends. The bulls are in charge unless we get that break down.

(Apr 09-12:34) mike: small shorts under the high
(Apr 09-12:36) mike: 87 is support. need to break / hold under it to put any pressure on

(Apr 09-12:54) mike: 85.75 is 60ema and a small last trapped at 86.00 -- key area as is 1983-81 nq

(Apr 09-13:07) mike: if this bounce can not get over 87 its trouble for the bulls
(Apr 09-13:11) mike: 84.50 on es and especially the 1980 on nq a key support. if not quickly reversed, they get momentum instead.

(Apr 09-13:23) mike: this bounce should not take out the highs. at least not the dow or es. the nq is under no danger unless 1980.25 is broken

(Apr 09-13:36) mike: this is key spot. tough call, es and dow should have trouble but nq on its high

(Apr 09-14:04) mike: The break took the ES to 1185.25 and the bounce stopped at the break down areas. This will be a trading range into the close unless the 1188 level is broken/ held or 1184.50 is broken/ held.

(Apr 09-15:07) mike: 86.50 should be important to hold , 1984 nq

(Apr 09-15:14) mike: 86.50 held so far. it must hold of mkt ends in a down trend 88 still good resist to clear / hold

(Apr 09-15:49) mike: better bounce from 86.50 than i thought, but new highs across the board, sets up a nice trade monday.

Thursday - April 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Apr 8, 2010 10:00 mike: if you have puts, cover 1/2 - can re add on bounce
Apr 8, 2010 10:05 mike: must get over 74 and hold on pullback to turn up, still a short

Apr 8, 2010 10:20 mike: The market dropped hard on the open and the ES has churned between 1171.50 and 1174.50. The 1175 level will need to be exceeded/ held to get a bounce going. IF that happens it should set up a good short if 1177.50-1178.50 is not cleared by much.

Apr 8, 2010 10:37 mike: 75.00-74.50 should hold or back down

Apr 8, 2010 10:46 mike: a scalp long only over 74.50, its looking toppy

Apr 8, 2010 10:55 mike: exit any longs

Apr 8, 2010 11:05 mike: 75 held, the 77.50-78.50 will still be possible. if 75.00-7450 breaks, then trends roll over .

Apr 8, 2010 11:09 mike: The 1174.50-1175.00 area was broken and held on a dip and the 1177.50-1178.50 zone was tested. This should be tough to break/ hold but the market doesn't get hurt unless that 1175.00-1174.50 area breaks.

Apr 8, 2010 11:13 mike: 3 numbers all at 77 area, a short if tested

(Apr 08-11:33) mike: the 75 level needs to hold, or quickly reverse, or there is break down . its 1966 on nq

(Apr 08-11:57) mike: The ES backed off from 1177.25 but held the 1175.00 support and turned back up and reached 1178.50 so far. The market has been making highs in the early afternoon lately, and then gets hit with a selloff. For now though, as long as a pullback holds at 1176.50 or higher it's trend up towards the 1180.50-1181.50 area which will likely be sold.

(Apr 08-12:03) mike: 1 min chart 18 ema needs to continue holding. at 77.75 now

(Apr 08-12:19) mike: the nq is strong but near good resist at 1975-76. not a short unless reversed. 1178 needs to hold or its first sign of a change

(Apr 08-12:30) mike: The 1180.50-1181.50 area was tested but the 1179.75-1179.25 area needs to break to change the dynamics. If broken, the 1178 will be key to hold to avoid testing strong support at 1175.00-1174.50.

(Apr 08-12:42) mike: they act a bit tired / extended, but a pullback only starts if 79.75-79.25 breaks. its small s, and held so far
(Apr 08-12:46) mike: 2 min chart 15 sma has been held, its 79.75 now tioo

(Apr 08-12:58) mike: The ES held at 1179.75 and popped up to 1181.25 so far, a resistance area. The move is getting extended, but unless the NQ weakens and the ES breaks 1179.75-1179.25 is broken the trends are up and the market is okay.

(Apr 08-13:12) mike: sell a test of the highs. nq finally shows rejection

(Apr 08-13:25) mike: a 123 type top, 82.75 shouldnt break -
(Apr 08-13:26) mike: a break under 81.50 changes dynmices, then 79.75 is key supp

(Apr 08-13:36) mike: just scalp long unless 81.50 breaks. or they see higher levels and fail . trend up day, shallow dips and grind higher. dips are buys unless reversal

(Apr 08-13:45) mike: nq reached resist 2, its 1084.50-1085.00 on es , a pop up there should be sold for scalp

(Apr 08-13:55) mike: thats it for the move up it looks, sell a bounce . biggest dip was 2.25 pts, makes 81.50-81.00 even more important

(Apr 08-14:00) mike: The NQ rejected its 1981.25-1982.00 zone and the ES made a small double top so that could mean a top is in for today. It has been trend up, with only a 2.25 point dip, so a break of 1181.25 would put some pressure on.

(Apr 08-14:03) mike: nq is a short if it doesnt accelerate, but pops to 1979-80 and reverses - 82.75-8300 es

(Apr 08-14:20) mike: i sold 1979 nq, tight stop and needs to roll over very soon
(Apr 08-14:23) mike: a scalp with small target, giving it about 10 seconds to roll over now
(Apr 08-14:25) mike: not doing as expected with a fast break. - out at 78.50

(Apr 08-14:44) mike: if there is still trend up into the last 30 minutes or so, i'm re buying the puts IF things look right. back to back trend day is rare . that last was a good trade, got in close to 1185, out this morning near 1173. fyi, i think next month i may do a part of a day or 2 a week via voice thru this.

(Apr 08-14:52) mike: The ES held right at 1181.25 and turned back up, keeping the trend day intact. The 1182.50 level, or a dip of 2 points, will continue to hold if trend is going to stay intact. If the market is still in trend up mode near the close, a few put options could be bought. Back to back trend-up days are not normal, and new highs have been rejected lately.

(Apr 08-15:09) mike: 85 was resist, nq really gave up at its 1982 area. sell a bounce, its great odds short

(Apr 08-15:20) mike: the 20ema on 5 min chart lines up w/ the 2 point dips. must stay over 82.50 to avoid trouble now. but still like short nq on a bounce that fizzles near the close then

(Apr 08-15:35) mike: upside losing momentum on each push higher, the 83.00-82.50 need to hold to close well, or else this can drop quickly

(Apr 08-15:47) mike: need to stay over 83 or its bearish for the morning. have a good rest of your day

Wednesday - April 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 07-10:00) mike: 85 strong / key resist now - cluster of resist there

(Apr 07-10:14) mike: The 1182.50-1082.00 zone was quickly reversed just after the open but 1185.00 was sold and a test of 1182.00 was quickly reversed again. That's key support. The 1185.00-1185.50 area is good resistance and it must be cleared and held to avoid another drop.

(Apr 07-10:25) mike: mkt very overbought short term. a rally will not stick . my focus is short , if there is a long its only a scalp

(Apr 07-10:46) mike: 82.50-83.00 good resist

(Apr 07-11:00) mike: The ES made a 123 type top from 1184.75 and when 1182.50 broke the downside was fast to 1179.00 so far. The 1182.50-1183.50 area is good resistance and should not be exceeded if 1177.50-1176.75 area is going to be tested/ broken today.

(Apr 07-11:22) mike: a pullback from 8250-83.00 resist should hold 81.00 to be in a range, or they rolling over to test lows.

(Apr 07-11:33) mike: 83.50 is 60ema on 5 min resist. 82 needs to hold or its a reversal

(Apr 07-11:50) mike: a 2 sided day so far, the 10900 area on Dow cash, the 1178-1177 area on ES, 1973-1971 on NQ are the good support. if this can take out 83 and hold, then mkt is going to try 1 more time to get to Dow 11,000 or test 1188. if we break 81.50, then the pressure is back on the downside

(Apr 07-12:00) mike: The 1182.50-1183.50 area only caused a small pullback so far. As long as 1181.50 can hold, the market is not going to get hit with selling. However, if that is broken and not quickly reversed then a drop back to test/ break the 10900 area on the Dow cash, 1178/1177 on the ES and 1973-1972 on the NQ.

(Apr 07-12:07) mike: short/ tight stop just over 83.50 resist/ 1982 on nq
(Apr 07-12:08) mike: a scalp. it has 1 minute to break lower or i take another look
(Apr 07-12:11) mike: await better setup of keep stop

(Apr 07-12:16) mike: 82 needs to hold or they roll over. stagnate range right now.
(Apr 07-12:20) mike: thats it for the bounce .

(Apr 07-12:59) mike: 81.50 to 83.50 range. these narrow range breakouts have been causing decent moves - be on your toes, but may need to wait for the 220-240pm eastern timeframe for a good move

(Apr 07-13:19) mike: We are getting two-sided action as the dops and bounces are not able to stick. For now, as long as the 1186.00-1186.50 is not exceeded/ held then the market is still vulnerable. A drop though should hold the 1182.50-1181.50 zone to keep the market from rolling over.

(Apr 07-13:30) mike: initial resist sold, but now pullback should hold 84.50-84.00 or a roll over

(Apr 07-13:40) mike: buying a few puts up here. 1 more push higher would be ideal but may not get that .
(Apr 07-13:48) mike: a bounce to near 85.50 that reverses is a very good short . may not get there tho

(Apr 07-14:08) mike: a 123 type top- but 83 on es and 1979 nq need to break to push lower

(Apr 07-14:21) mike: stay with shorts , a bounce is a gift if 85-86 tested or they stall out under it on a bounce

(Apr 07-14:31) mike: if you bought puts we'll add on a bounce or break down
(Apr 07-14:39) mike: bottom of the range, a ''must hold'' - 82.50-83.00 resist now

(Apr 07-14:53) mike: this area on the Dow and 1179 on es and especially 1973-1972 on nq - must stay over or its a bigger drop than ''normal''
(Apr 07-15:00) mike: 77.50-76.75 , then 1174.75-1174.00 next supp.

(Apr 07-15:12) mike: The market collapse picked up steam after 1181.50 broke and the 1174.75-1174.00 was reached, but this is the start of a bigger drop so stay with the short side down to 1167-1166 or so on this move.

(Apr 07-15:18) mike: that 73 area could be a low for a bit, eye on 1 min chart 9 and 18 ema trend guide - if broken then 77.50-7850 resist

(Apr 07-15:43) mike: nq at 1973 old supp, es at the 77.50-7850. a close over is needed to avoid more drop iin the morning

(Apr 07-15:55) mike: enjoy the rest of your day

Tuesday - April 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 06-9:15) mike: 1177.50-1176.75 is key early supp

(Apr 06-10:04) mike: 81.00-81.50 is a transition area. it must break that to get into neutral. 1177.50-1176.75 key, must hold or a top in

(Apr 06-10:21) mike: The lower open reversed from just over the 1177.50-1176.75 support zone and has chopped back to 1182.00 so far. The 1180 level needs to hold to avoid a test of the lows.

(Apr 06-10:35) mike: 81.50-81.00 needs to hold or this wedge breaks. 1970 on nq.

(Apr 06-11:04) mike: 81.50 is solid so far, needs to stay over that

(Apr 06-11:18) mike: The ES found support at 1181.50 and must hold that to avoid breaking a wedge pattern.

(Apr 06-11:24) mike: 83.50 from yesterday rejected, 82.50/81.50 must hold or we get a reversal

(Apr 06-11:32) mike: 1184.50-1186.00 area will be sold for a scalp at the least - if not reached soon, mktt can drop to 82.50 quickly
(Apr 06-11:38) mike: 83.00-82.50 supp / key area on a dip from resist

(Apr 06-11:52) mike: 123 top type pattern. now 84.50 shouldnt be exceeded/ held and 83.00-82.50 must break soon
(Apr 06-11:57) mike: if short scalp out of part at 82.50 or better
(Apr 06-12:01) mike: 84.50 it should not be exceeded/ held / 82.50 still looks its key. the NQ needs to break 1973 to turn this down though

(Apr 06-12:22) mike: The ES tested and rejected the 1184.50-1186.00 zone and a pullback needs to hold 1182.50-1181.50 area and reverse to avoid a decent sized drop. The Fed Minutes at 2pm should be a market mover. If the 1182.50 level is not held, then 1177.50-1176.75 could be in play and that is a good buying opportunity if they double bottom down there. IF the highs are exceeded and not quickly reversed, then the 1189.25-1190.25 is the next big hurdle on the upside.

(Apr 06-12:34) mike: just short bounce, risk reward better

(Apr 06-13:14) mike: the 82 support is also 60ema on 5 min, no break/ hold here yet, but mkt continues to hold on dips so if this holds 83-82 is a buy for a move higher into Fed minutes. then things can get volatile

(Apr 06-13:36) mike: they're having trouble to the high per normal. now need to stay over 82 or things change

(Apr 06-13:52) mike: same kind of day going into the fed minutes. resist 84.50-86.00 on ES, 1978.75-1980.50 on NQ

(Apr 06-14:12) mike: 83.75-83.00 now key supp, must stay over that on next dip to keep trend up intact

(Apr 06-14:25) mike: The ES held 1182.50 and after breaking 1184.50 it held on a dip and the trend up move is intact. The 1184.50 level should hold, but beware of a reversal if the 1189.25-1190.25 zone is reached.

(Apr 06-14:30) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18ema is trend supp- 86.00 on es and 1983 nq is supp
(Apr 06-14:36) mike: in melt up mode over 1186 -- need to hold to stay trend up. 1190 still potential reversal area

(Apr 06-14:45) mike: 87.25-86.75 needs to hold, a close indicators w/ these internals will be in sell territory for 1st time in a month or so

(Apr 06-15:08) mike: nq is tired and 1978 area can be tested, but it will hold if not a top in place
(Apr 06-15:15) mike: vix also made lowest low in last 18-24 months , red flags

(Apr 06-15:27) mike: fyi, i'm keeping partial short overnight
(Apr 06-15:27) mike: my indicators are set up for a decent drop
(Apr 06-15:29) mike: a close under 84.50 is bearish too

(Apr 06-15:38) mike: 84.50 was morning/ early afternoon high area, then 60ema now at 84.50 - its a negative closing under that .

(Apr 06-15:48) mike: 86 is a transition/ resist and mkt is under pressure unless broken/ held. enjoy the rest of the day

Monday - April 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 05-12:10) mike: The higher open was sold and a quick drop to 1174.50 on the ES was reversed back up and the move stopped at 1183.85 so far. If the 1182 area is broken by much, and not able to get over 1182.50 again, then the trend turns but there will be good support at the 1175-1174 zone.

(Apr 05-12:20) mike: getting adjusted here. short nq on a pop

(Apr 05-12:26) mike: if there is a break under 82 and its not reversed, then 78.75-78.00 would be a key area to hold. a bounce from there that stops and turns back down near 82 would mea topping action/ transition lower

(Apr 05-13:17) mike: 81.75 needs to hold to stay in this 2 point range on ES. mkt is in trend day unless that breaks and not quickly reversed

(Apr 05-13:32) mike: can buy a dip but tight stop 81.75 still must/ should hold
(Apr 05-13:38) mike: sell a pop up
(Apr 05-13:38) mike: 84 stp
(Apr 05-13:41) mike: 83.25 should not be exceeded / held now
(Apr 05-13:42) mike: 81.00-80.25 support, minor but a place to cover

(Apr 05-13:49) mike: 82.00 resist is this has momentum
(Apr 05-13:54) mike: 82 broke and held so far, but 81.00-80.25 and 1972-1971 NQ are pivotal supp now - if not held then trends change
(Apr 05-14:00) mike: The 1183.50 level was a strong resistance, and the market pulled back and broke the 1182 level and stayed under 1182.50 on the bounce so far. To avoid potential trouble, the 1183.25 level needs to be cleared and then held on a pullback. That and 1976 on the NQ.

(Apr 05-14:15) mike: this plays out nicely if stay under 82.25 and break 80.25

(Apr 05-14:32) mike: now that 82.50 broke, the mkt is not going to fall apart unless 81 breaks/ not reversed. the NQ looks vulnerable thol and good resist 1975-76

(Apr 05-14:48) mike: The 1182.50 level was cleared so the market should not get in to trouble unless 1181 level on the ES is broken in the last hour. If there is a pop up into the 1184.50-1186.00 zone and it's rejected, then that could start a decent pullback.

(Apr 05-14:59) mike: little wedge break, a test of the high that reverses is a good short up here

(Apr 05-15:11) mike: if 82.75 not exceeded soon this cold snow-ball lower
(Apr 05-15:16) mike: 81.50-81.00 has been good supp, but they can't stay over 83.50 for very long so upside limited

(Apr 05-15:44) mike: should have a high in place nq especially
(Apr 05-15:48) mike: if 83 reverses again its top heavy- 1975-1977 on nq same . top of tiny range. have a good rest of the day

Thursday - April 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Apr 01-09:09) mike: 1173.25-1173.75 shown some rejection, but the ES will be ok as long as 1170 holds

(Apr 01-10:11) mike: 74.50 needs to hold . the high made 30 minutes in, a top for a bit.
(Apr 01-10:16) mike: 123 tp here
(Apr 01-10:20) mike: 76.50 ES and especially 1975 NQ are good resist now

(Apr 01-10:29) mike: The market gapped up on the open and rallied 30 minutes before turning down from 1177.50. That should be a top, shorting against that down to 1172.50-1171.50 which must hold to avoid a reversal pattern.

(Apr 01-11:01) mike: 72.50 tested, 1170.50 target to fill gap on daily chart
(Apr 01-11:08) mike: the NQ has been more steady down. better short today
(Apr 01-11:15) mike: 72.50 quickly reversed. this bounce should fail under 74.75 to keep downside going , 1985 NQ
(Apr 01-11:16) mike: 1965 on nq is resist

(Apr 01-11:21) mike: The bounces failed and the 1172.50-1171.50 zone was reached, but as long as the NQ stays under 1966 its trouble for the market.

(Apr 01-11:49) mike: NQ resist at 1965 must be cleared or the bounce is vulnerable here

(Apr 01-12:22) mike: nq 1965-66 still the key resist it looks, if 72 breaks then its not good and 70.50 is in the cards

(Apr 01-12:34) mike: 70.75-70.50 area will be a key supp on ES and is still in gear unless 75 exceeded

(Apr 01-13:04) mike: The NQ bounced to 1965 while the ES reached 1175.75 and they dropped back down. The market is vulnerable unless 1175 on the ES is exceeded and not quickly reversed.

(Apr 01-13:17) mike: 60ema on 5 min at 73 and thats key area - 73.00-72.50 zone

(Apr 01-13:44) mike: NQ broke, 1960-61 good resist now

(Apr 01-13:58) mike: The ES bounced to 1174.75 and then broke hard once again. The ES filled the gap on the daily chart, but the NQ is very weak so that 1175 area is still a key resistance to sell against.

(Apr 01-14:14) mike: 1168.50-1168.00 was resist, now is next supp area. that is giving a bounce, if theses lows are broken then 1163-1162 would be a key reversal .

(Apr 01-14:20) mike: tick extreme on top, small dip. end your w/e on a good note, don't do something just to be trading this late in the day

(Apr 01-14:26) mike: gap days are often times trend days, the low/ high are about equal amunt of time left. so, if this continues a low could be made with about 30 minutes left for stocks. we'll see.

(Apr 01-14:39) mike: 70.50-72.00 now good resist, 63-61 key supp if no hold here

(Apr 01-15:07) mike: probably bottomed on NQf for today, and ES held at a logical spot. a late day short squeeze possible but they started the rally too soon. a test / break of the lows should be reversed UNLESS an air pocket drop to 63-62 area

(Apr 01-15:08) mike: anyhow, 70.50-72.00 still good resist

(Apr 01-15:12) mike: The ES fell to 1166.25 so far in what has been a trend down day. If the lows are not in already, a test should be held. A break/ hold over 1170.50-1172.00 is needed to get into neutral territory.

Enjoy the weekend!

(Apr 01-15:19) mike: 70.50 should be it for bounce
(Apr 01-15:21) mike: have a great long weekend. i'll update Sunday night. employment number i will be away. take care

Wednesday - March 31, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 31-10:17) mike: if you still have part of puts bought monday cover them
(Mar 31-10:19) mike: a bounce back to 67-68 that stalls out is a short. pressure on only if 63 broken/ held

(Mar 31-10:31) mike: 68 stall/ rejection. very tight stop on short. 65.50-65.00 support on a pullback
(Mar 31-10:35) mike: didn't drop quickly so flatten out
(Mar 31-10:39) mike: The market has very good volatility today already. The bounce should reverse from under 1170, but the upside will be intact and no reversal happens unless the 1167 level is broken.

(Mar 31-10:46) mike: bearish pattern. could bounce from 65.50 area, but bounce is a sell

(Mar 31-11:08) mike: a 123 top pattern is likely if 67 is exceeded. that would be a pop to 69 or lower that reverses n 2 min chart.

(Mar 31-11:37) mike: 123 top - pullback trigger on break of 68.25
(Mar 31-11:39) mike: slow moving , 67.25-67.00 now supp tht needs to hold
(Mar 31-11:43) mike: thats what tight stop are for, this doesn't reverse unless 67 breaks. tho 1170 should be a tough level to break/ stay over

(Mar 31-12:02) mike: be short under 1170. and 10900 dow cash
(Mar 31-12:03) mike: 67.75-67.25 first supp

(Mar 31-12:22) mike: After the last update the ES turned down from 1168.75 and dropped to 1165.25 but then turned right back up. For now the market is in End of Quarter action and needs to stay over 1168 to avoid a decent pullback. The 1170 level must be taken out and not reversed to get a push towards the 1173.25-1173.75 zone, possibly the 1176-1177 area for a reversal. If that 1170 stays as a good barrier, an 1168 breaks, then a reversal day is possible.

(Mar 31-12:33) mike: 1170 and dow 10900 still the key resist / sell area. its toppy / or top of range and keeps getting rejected. . big wedge pattern is ominous looking

(Mar 31-12:52) mike: 68.00. held, no damage yet but mkt feels nervous, load up short if 70-71 fails again / or if 68 is broken and held on a bounce

(Mar 31-13:07) mike: 68 needs to break soon, or we get another push towards 70

(Mar 31-14:10) mike: 68 barley broke but came right back and stayed at 68.50 . the mkt is going to be strong as long as that area holds today.

(Mar 31-14:17) mike: that made dbl top at dow 10900 and 70.50 , i'm shorting up here due to rejection[s] and poor internals at high
(Mar 31-14:18) mike: confirmation on a break of 10880 area on dow cash and 68 held under on break

(Mar 31-14:30) mike: in this zone, can scalp both sides. the NQ keeps popping up. need to see a break to be aggressive either way
(Mar 31-14:32) mike: 1965-1964 supp on NQ. 1168.50-1168.00 ES . 10880 dow cash

(Mar 31-14:39) mike: they could bounce, but not with me - a very good short coming , maybe started
(Mar 31-14:45) mike: The ES double topped at 1170.50 and the NQ finally is giving some back so short the bounces as a good top should be in place.
(Mar 31-14:45) mike: 69 good resist

(Mar 31-15:10) mike: this bounce should fail, if in a long use any strength to get out - we are going to see a big drop soon ,

(Mar 31-15:22) mike: a break thru 61.50 needed to go toward 1158ish first decent supp

(Mar 31-15:29) mike: 66.00-66.50 good resist now. the NQ should be watched, its leading
(Mar 31-15:34) mike: that 66.00-66.50 rejected. only a break/ hold over it can save this causing shorts to cover

(Mar 31-15:51) mike: good resist at 66.00-66.50- if 65 not exceeded, a drop into close. have a great rest of the day

Tuesday - March 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 30-10:07) mike: 1169.00-1168.25 closing range from yesterday now key support

(Mar 30-10:15) mike: as long as 72.00-71.50 hold, no damage done. if broken, then early high in place
(Mar 30-10:20) mike: sell 71.50-72.00 now good resist

(Mar 30-10:29) mike: The higher open was sold but the ES turned up from 1169.00 and sprinted to 1173.75 before running out of gas. Those should be highs for the day, but a break/ hold under 1169.00-1168.50 is needed to put the pressure on.

(Mar 30-10:42) mike: key supp held, but this 71.50-72.00 should be hard to get thru and hold - a short w/ tight top

(Mar 30-11:00) mike: short side under 71.50-72.00 bettet odds, could break down soon
(Mar 30-11:01) mike: 68.25 should be met
(Mar 30-11:04) mike: 69.00-69.50 now resist
(Mar 30-11:05) mike: stay with part of short for swing trade.

(Mar 30-11:14) mike: The 1166.75-1166.25 zone on the ES, 1954.50-1954.00 zone on the NQ and 10880 on the Dow cash were all broken so some damage has been done. The action is bearish and a bounce would need to take out 1171.50-1172.00 and hold to get out of trouble.

(Mar 30-11:24) mike: if you bought puts yesterday with me near the close, cover 1/2 of them here and we'll hold the rest for awhile

(Mar 30-12:22) mike: 68.25 was a support yesterdat afternoon, the transition lower when it broke, and its now a key resist on this lunchtime bounce . mkt bearish under that

Mar 30-12:46) mike: a wedge pattern could break, 68.50 must hold

(Mar 30-13:20) mike: wedge broke, test of low

(Mar 30-13:35) mike: After dropping to 1164.25 the ES bounced to 1169.50 and stalled out, which lead to another drop to 1166.25 so far. The market is a short on all decent bounces, as it looks like more toppy action. Only a brak/ hold over 1170 can get this out of trouble.

(Mar 30-13:57) mike: 10880 on Dow cash needs to hold on this next drop, or it can mean a drop thru the lows

(Mar 30-14:14) mike: resist at 69.50-71.00 zone is a short if reached, that 68.75 looks like a high tho. still sell these pops

(Mar 30-14:32) mike: if 1171.50 reached, it should be rejected .

(Mar 30-14:46) mike: 1170 rejection, but 69.00 on ES and 1963.50 on NQ need to hold or its a reversal

(Mar 30-15:04) mike: should go to 67.50 if symmetry continues

(Mar 30-15:22) mike: The 1170 level was cleared but has dropped off of 1171 and now must get back over 1170 to avoid trouble

(Mar 30-15:35) mike: 68.75 is key supp. if 71.50 should be reversed

(Mar 30-15:49) mike: the upside is 71.50 , maybe 76... downside is a lot more. have a great rest of the day
(Mar 30-15:51) mike: keeping a partial short for a swing trade, i think friday could be bad w/ only 45 min to trade
(Mar 30-15:52) mike: enjoy the rest of your day

Monday - March 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 29-09:14) mike: My ISP is doing ''maintenance'' today and tomorrow and the site, and this chat box, will be down for a few hours at some point. also, email can not be received so i can not answer emails for a few days

(Mar 29-09:54) mike: thats a top for a bit
(Mar 29-09:55) mike: 67-66 must hold or 63 area is a test

(Mar 29-10:02) mike: 68.00-68.50 resist

Mar 29, 2010 10:29 mike: The early strength was sold about 23 minutes into trading as the ES turned down from just under 1170 and dropped 4 points before a bounce. The bounces should be sold until a test of the 1164-1163 area, which must be quickly reversed to avoid a deeper drop.

Mar 29, 2010 10:43 mike: the last lows should / must hold, a dip to 67 that turns up is a scalp long

Mar 29, 2010 11:01 mike: bounce off 67.25 and 67.00... however NQ lost its early aggressive bid. that 67 level now must continue to hold . . scalp long only

Mar 29, 2010 11:14 mike: 68.25 pivotal -

Mar 29, 2010 11:22 mike: The ES turned up from 1165.25 and has bounced back to test the early high. The NQ is lagging after an aggressive buy up early so the market is vulnerable if the ES can not stay over 1167.00 now.

Mar 29, 2010 11:30 mike: 1170.75-1171.50 key zone.

Mar 29, 2010 11:47 mike: key resist was rejected, now a wedge is close to breaking. a pop to a lower high that reverses is another short set up. 1168.25 looks key for support

(Mar 29-11:57) mike: The ES reversed from the 1170.75-1171.50 resistance zone, and it will take a break/ hold over that zone to avoid a decent sized drop. The 1168-1167 area should be pivotal, so a pullback must hold that area to avoid a potential reversal day.

(Mar 29-12:01) mike: the 20ema on 5 min chart at 1168.50 too here now, so a cluster of supp, need to hold to keep uptrend . this could set up a 123 top if a bounce to a lower high reverses

(Mar 29-12:14) mike: 68.50 now key trend supp. if broken, 67.00 is next . still, a bounce to lower high that then reverses on a 2 minute chart, it a 123 top

(Mar 29-12:21) mike: not good action up here at all. suggest short w/ stop over 70. i'm just selling bounces up here,

(Mar 29-12:43) mike: 66.75 cover part if short

(Mar 29-12:56) mike: 66.75 is a ''last trapped'' and now 60ema on 5 min chart. mkt okay as long as its held, but need break and hold, not reject, the 1169.50 level to look bettet

(Mar 29-13:42) mike: its a 2-sided action but short the bounces better trades, stay w/ short side on bounces
(Mar 29-13:46) mike: The bounces don't want to stick and it's toppy acting so the 1170.75-1171.50 resistance zone would need to be exceeded, not rejected, and held to avoid a top.

(Mar 29-14:10) mike: the range is tiny, the mkt will keep chopping around unless the 1167-1166.50 area is broken and then held as resistance on a bounce attempt. on top 69.50 area hasn't held since coming down from 71.00, failing there keeps mkt from a rally/ short squeeze

(Mar 29-14:30) mike: watch 10880 on Dow, a break there should pressure the mkt. NQ better short w/ AAPL action

(Mar 29-14:45) mike: The market averages have traded in very narrow ranges and it looks like the Dow cash needs to stay over 10880 to avoid a deeper drop and possibly fall pretty hard.

(Mar 29-15:12) mike: 68.50 will need to hold end of day. a new high close over 1174.14 on SPX will set up a good odds short . if they break lower, its a bad pattern.

(Mar 29-15:22) mike: 68.50 held 2 times, a 3rd will break dn so that a key level now

Mar 29-15:46) mike: this is worth a few puts. have a great rest of your day.

Friday - March 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Mar 26, 2010 9:43 mike: 1165.75 key early

Mar 26, 2010 10:14 mike: must stay over 67 to avoid reversal

Mar 26, 2010 10:20 mike: The ES popped up on the open, reversed from the 1165.75 resistance, then after pulling back to yesterday's close the market turned up. It should be a volatile day, and if 1166.50-1166.00 is not held then the trend turns down.

Mar 26, 2010 10:23 mike: sell w/ stop just over 68.50. or 1962 nq
Mar 26, 2010 10:24 mike: need 66.50 to break, may wait for reversal. or use tight stop

Mar 26, 2010 10:30 mike: prairie dog, 67 need to hold or bad
Mar 26, 2010 10:35 mike: its trend up , but NQ at resist, struggling there.

Mar 26, 2010 10:42 mike: a wedge pattern , highs at / just under resist. it shoulld be tough resist. if 67 broken, the bounce tht follows will fail

Mar 26, 2010 11:00 mike: The bounce failed at 1169.75 on the ES and the 1963.50-1964.00 key area on the NQ was sold, so those should be tops to short against until the 1167.00-1166.50 is broken.

Mar 26, 2010 11:04 mike: 1166 is going to be pivotal it appears, this bounce should fail and a break/ hold under 1166 would put pressure on

Mar 26, 2010 11:14 mike: this could break hard / watch dow 5 min chart
Mar 26, 2010 11:16 mike: if that ''ledge'' breaks , downside can gather steam

Mar 26, 2010 11:25 mike: the bounce failed so far, a tepid choppy mkt. for scalps right now. the mkt will be vulnerable under 1169 - and must hold this 66.50-66.00 pivotal area or its a transition to the downside

(Mar 26-11:45) mike: The 1167.00-1166.50 area gave a bounce to 1168.75 on ES and 1960 on the NQ and the market is vulnerable unless those are exceeded / held now.

(Mar 26-11:59) mike: 1955-1954 on nq a key supp
(Mar 26-12:00) mike: equal to this 66 area - if not held, 1164.50 on es is next

(Mar 26-12:22) mike: stay short under 68 . a bouncec is a gift if not short
(Mar 26-12:24) mike: nq the weaker and better short today all day so far
(Mar 26-12:29) mike: potential for a bounce off 1161-1160. or a colapse towards 1158.50, key

(Mar 26-12:37) mike: The market broke the wedge and tumbled tonew lows. The 1166.50 area needs cleared and not rejected to change things. Sell the bounces if not already short as this could unwind to the downside.

(Mar 26-12:46) mike: feeble bunce off 61 supp, stay w/ shorts for now

(Mar 26-12:56) mike: 62.50 now good resist
(Mar 26-12:58) mike: take some off the table down here at support, trail stop on the rest. 1163.500-1164.00 resist now

(Mar 26-13:04) mike: if this 1159.25-1158.50 breaks, 1155.75-1155.00 needs to hold. a drop to 53.00-51.50 area would be a bad end of week if we drop there

(Mar 26-13:12) mike: bounce from 1155.75-1155.00 zone, but good resist at 59.50 if going lower

(Mar 26-13:25) mike: The market has finally come under good selling pressure. This action has been rather ugly, but lately the market has come flying back after a decent drop. The 1155.75-1155.00 area was tested once, so be on alert for another decent bounce if the ES re-tests that zone and then turns up. The 1152.50-1163.25 area should be a good resistance zone now.

(Mar 26-13:49) mike: 61.50 is 20ema on 5 min chart and trend resist
(Mar 26-13:51) mike: a mini wedge broke, a pop to 61 that reverses starts another drop

(Mar 26-14:32) mike: key here, 60ema at 63.50 too

(Mar 26-14:49) mike: The ES bounced to 1163.75, just over resistance, and reversed. The tone has changed and I'd hold off buying anything and focus on the short side unless the lows are tested/ reversed or 1164 is exceeded and held.

(Mar 26-14:52) mike: a 123 type top could form in no nose dive here
(Mar 26-14:56) mike: one last thing, the symmetry / stair step up from the low needs to hold over 1160.00 , otherwise pattern breaks and day ends poorly

(Mar 26-15:28) mike: a last 30 minute rally is doubtful - but will only set up a short if it does

(Mar 26-15:44) mike: have a great weekend

Thursday - March 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 25-09:17) mike: it should be a good mkt unless 1169.00-1168.50 is broken today

(Mar 25-09:52) mike: gap on daily chart filled, must stay over 69.00-68.50

Mar 25, 2010 10:22 mike: The gap up open was sold and the ES dropped 5 points from 1172.50 to 1167.50 and bounced. That 1167.50-1166.50 area should be pivotal today. Unless that area in broken, and not quickly reversed, the bulls are still in charge with 1173.75-1174.25 in site. If it is broken, then trends change and a drop towards 1164 is in the cards.

Mar 25, 2010 10:30 mike: 70 should hold to get a push higher

Mar 25, 2010 10:36 mike: careful long up here, if 71 not exceeded / held soon we can get a drop

Mar 25, 2010 10:47 mike: 71.25 has bee a lid, if broken they pop thu to 1173.75-1174.25 but looking tired up here at the moment

Mar 25, 2010 11:16 mike: if long sell em at 73.75-74.50 area here

Mar 25, 2010 11:17 mike: 72-71 now good supp

Mar 25, 2010 11:27 mike: The 1173.75-1174.25 zone was reached, but the move is not in jeopardy unless the 1170.25-1169.50 zone is broken. There is a chance for a trend up day as long as a dip holds 1171.50 now.

(Mar 25-11:41) mike: its a melt up, the first sign of weakness come if 74.00-73.50 area broken.

(Mar 25-12:25) mike: 123 type top, that might be it for upside if the 20ema here at 72.25 breaks again

(Mar 25-12:35) mike: The ES reached 1175.75 and tested it twice before pulling back. If that is not exceeded, and 1173.00-11172.50 is broken, then a high could be in place. If 1172.50 is not broken then the trend up day is not damaged.

(Mar 25-12:49) mike: new highs have been sold, so let it pull back, or scalp a short if quick on those, then look for a long entry until trend breaks

(Mar 25-13:06) mike: The dip held right at 1173.00 and bounced to a higher high at 1176.50. The market is acting a bit ragged, so that 1173 level needs to hold or a top could be forming.

(Mar 25-13:20) mike: a transition to downside happens if 73.00-72.50 broken then is then resist on a bounce
(Mar 25-13:23) mike: time to start looking short now if bounce off supp fizzles near 76 again - 2 ema here, 4 touches so far
(Mar 25-13:24) mike: 20ema, not 2. at 74.50
(Mar 25-13:30) mike: 76 rejected, a short under it w/ tight stop

(Mar 25-13:38) mike: shouldn't see 74.50 again, if we do its a short
(Mar 25-13:39) mike: 74 area a short , nq look a bit weaker now, 1969 resist there

(Mar 25-13:47) mike: a bounce tht fails/reverses under 73 area is bearish sign
(Mar 25-13:49) mike: 72.50-73.00 must be cleared/ held no to change this trend / transition down

(Mar 25-14:07) mike: The rejection of 1176 picked up steam when 1173 was broken, and now the 1172.50-1173.00 area should be key resistance on a bounce.

(Mar 25-14:34) mike: 69.0-69.50 trend resist. this 67.50-66.50 is a key supp, must hold or the 1164 next, 1161 is a big level to hold to avoid an outside day

(Mar 25-14:37) mike: if short, cover a part in this supp zone

(Mar 25-15:00) mike: that 65.75 low should stick, otherwise things will have changed from ''buy deep drops, you'll get em back'' psyche

(Mar 25-15:11) mike: the bounce started sooner than normal lately, a decent dip likely/ a possible double bottom but w'll see

(Mar 25-15:21) mike: 69 needs to hold here, or we could break towards 67 or lower

(Mar 25-15:37) mike: the bouncce was to early to end great, try for dbl bottom but 1162.00-1161.00 major area could be seen if 68 not cleared
(Mar 25-15:40) mike: The bounce reversed from 1171 and the 1162-1161 area needs to hold or the move snowballs towards the 1159-1158.50 major area.

(Mar 25-15:50) mike: 61.25 close enough. 65.50 resist going into the close . have a *great* rest of your day

Wednesday - March 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Mar 24, 2010 9:28 mike: it look like a top yesterday, sell bounce today 1170 shouldn't be exceeded / held today
Mar 24, 2010 9:29 mike: if u bought puts cover 1/4 on open

Mar 24, 2010 10:12 mike: The 1164.00 support was reversed but the market isn't out of trouble yet. A move to the 1169-1170 area that stalls/ reverses should set up a shorting opportunity.

Mar 24, 2010 10:47 mike: The bounce took the ES to 1168.75, and it double topped there, so to avoid trouble that must be cleared/ held.

(Mar 24-10:56) mike: the 66 level was quickly reversed when broken, and 66.25 held on pullback. if broken then the ''buy dips'' thought process breaks

(Mar 24-11:08) mike: should be the highs, if they pop back up get short, a bigger drop coming

(Mar 24-11:13) mike: 1162.50-1161.75 will be a key spot
(Mar 24-11:15) mike: load em up short on bounces, swing trade if not already in. 66.00-66.50 good resist , shouldnt be exceeded now

(Mar 24-11:24) mike: The market rolled over pretty hard, and it appears things have changed short term. There is resistance at 1166.00-1166.50 that shouldn't be exceeded. The 1159.00-1158.50 area needs to be quickly reversed on a test/ break to avoid a sharp drop towards 1155.75 and maybe 1152-1150.

(Mar 24-11:44) mike: if64.50 is not broken//held then the mkt is still very weak. should back off from there

(Mar 24-12:16) mike: 66.0-66.50 shouldnt be exceeded/ held- a short under 66.50

(Mar 24-12:26) mike: staying under 66.50, but 64.50 looks like a pivotal level, it need to break and stay under it to turn lower now.

(Mar 24-12:55) mike: wedge pattern , if 66 is broken, a pop that follows would be a short

(Mar 24-13:02) mike: 66,25 r now
(Mar 24-13:05) mike: 62.50 small supp
(Mar 24-13:09) mike: 65.25-65.75 should be sold

(Mar 24-13:19) mike: As pointed out via instant message, a wedge pattern was broken when 1166 was broken and now the market is a short on all bounces up to 1168.50-1170.00 now. The 1159.00-1158.50 area must be reversed to avoid an air-pocket towards 1152.

(Mar 24-13:43) mike: we have an ''inside'' day so far. if 62 breaks then the 1159 should get tested/ broken, then expect a very quick reversal or just nose dive to 1155.75 or 1152ish .

(Mar 24-13:57) mike: 59 still in site if 63.50-64.25 not exceeded.

(Mar 24-14:03) mike: double bottoms, so ES IS OK over 61 . just don't expect a big rally. mkt in a bit of top pattern

(Mar 24-14:18) mike: 63.25-62.50 should / must hold on a dip now

(Mar 24-14:38) mike: 63.25 should be important support, 65 key resist . careful long, doesnt have much power on bounce

(Mar 24-14:59) mike: A double bottom was made on all of the averages, but the bounce has been feeble. As long as 1165 is not exceeded the market is vulnerable and could still test/ break 1159.00-1158.50 before a good reversal can occur.

(Mar 24-15:15) mike: if 64.50 not exceeded soon, we finally get a day that ends on down note
(Mar 24-15:16) mike: 10825-10820 on Dow cash is the key spot to hold it appears

(Mar 24-15:39) mike: that 66 area good resist, but if 64.50-64.00 holds the mkt is still a buy

(Mar 24-15:46) mike: avoid longs, sell near 66 if reached. action setting up for a drop
(Mar 24-16:01) mike: have a great rest of the day.

Friday - March 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 19-09:17) mike: last time the Dow closed up 9 days in a row, 1996 -- 14 years

(Mar 19-09:28) mike: mkt is ok unless 1162 reversed dn thru. quarterly expiration

(Mar 19-09:47) mike: The gap up open at 1165.25-1165.50 resistance was a "gift for an entry on the short side" and that should be a top. Bounces are shorts on this quarterly expiration day. The 1158 area is key/ pivotal support now.

(Mar 19-10:09) mike: 62 now key resist. it shouldnt be cleared

(Mar 19-10:14) mike: 1158.00-1157.50 should break if going to get hit hard here
(Mar 19-10:19) mike: 59.00-59.50 trend resist
(Mar 19-10:22) mike: 1 minute chart 18 ema is good trend guide in these momentum moves, at 58.50 now and dropping
(Mar 19-10:26) mike: 1155.75-1155.00 tested, but should break if 1158.50 not cleared / held

(Mar 19-10:31) mike: 57 now trend resist
(Mar 19-10:33) mike: trail stop, or ride tthis towards 1149.00-1148.50 major supp. resist 1157.00, 1158.50-1159.00 area. 1934 on nq

(Mar 19-10:41) mike: The drop was a steady trend down move to 1154.50 in the first hour before finally getting a bounce. Lately the market has come right back, but that shouldn't be the case today. The ES would need to get back over 1162 and not quickly reverse to undo this damage.

(Mar 19-10:56) mike: 57 resist - still a weak mkt not able to clear resist areas

(Mar 19-11:02) mike: the vix gives 3 of possible 5 sell signals if it closes here over 17.13
(Mar 19-11:04) mike: i'm holding sing trade shorts over the w/e if its giving those signals near the close

(Mar 19-11:17) mike: minor supp 51.50-51.00, but 1149.00-1148.50 major. stay with it, 57.50 shouldn't be exceeded

(Mar 19-11:29) mike: After a small bounce to trend resistance at 1157.25 another drop took the ES to a 1152.00, just over the 1151.50 support. That area should break as long as 1157.50-1158.50 is not exceeded. The 1149.00-1148.50 area looks like a major short term support, a double bottom from after the Fed release. A break of that area would be a big negative for the weekly chart. Have a great weekend, next update Sunday night.

(Mar 19-11:33) mike: i'll stay on here until noon. still holding short for now, but scaled out of 1/2 for now

(Mar 19-11:59) mike: shouldn't bounce much further or the lows could be in place.

(Mar 19-12:05) mike: the environment should be a bit thin due to the tourney . and a quarterly expiration. could see an exaggerated move either way. the ''easy'' part with a good trend move is over for awhile

(Mar 19-13:19) mike: this can be quiet chop until around 2;30pm. small triangle breaks under 52 or over 56. 54 looks key supp here... enjoy the weekend.

Thursday - March 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 18-09:26) mike: if in a swing trade from 63-64 area yesterday, cover around 61 and we'll take a second look

(Mar 18-09:40) mike: short under resist rejected

(Mar 18-09:52) mike: leading indicators and philly fed release top of the hour

(Mar 18-10:06) mike: that should be hard to get thru, short all pop ups

(Mar 18-10:15) mike: The ES rejected its 1162.00-1163.00 zone on the open, dropped 2.25 points to 1160.25 and bounced back. The reversal off of 1163.25 on the ES and a double top on the Dow should be a top, but a break/ hold under 1160 is needed now to send the market lower.

(Mar 18-10:36) mike: dbl top on dow, then a wedge break and a 123 top, all say lower prices
(Mar 18-10:38) mike: 60.25-61.00 resist

(Mar 18-10:49) mike: The market broke lower from a number of resistance areas and this bounce should make lower high and reverse. There is small resistance at 1160.50-1161.00, but the 1163 area is key this morning.

(Mar 18-10:55) mike: 60.25 rejected first try, its trend down unless that 61 is broken/ held on a pullback

(Mar 18-11:09) mike: 60.50 needs to continue to hold, its toppy action if it breaks again .

(Mar 18-11:17) mike: The ES broke over 1160.50 and held on a pullback, so as long as that is held there is no damage done. It should be a 2-sided day with another reversal near 1165 a good possibility.

(Mar 18-11:41) mike: its a short unless 62-63 is broken and not quickl reversed

(Mar 18-11:50) mike: The bounce revered from the 1162.25 level and the action is not good. the 1158.00-1157.50 zone was reached, but bounces should fail setting up better odds shorts

(Mar 18-12:01) mike: 1155.75-1155.00 gap target 1
(Mar 18-12:07) mike: 1155.75 gap on daily missed by 2 ticks - the 58-59 area resist ow

(Mar 18-12:31) mike: This selling should last for more than a few hours this time. The ES just missed its 1155.75-1155.00 gap support while the NQ has yet to break initial support, so a bounce should fail and those support areas must hold or the downside could gather steam.

(Mar 18-12:43) mike: a pretty good sized bid to cut thru at support. 123 bottom possible, but a bounce will be sold
(Mar 18-12:48) mike: 123 bottom, this bounce won't stick though , must break/ hold 1157.50-1158.00 area

(Mar 18-13:21) mike: 60ema on 5 min here on ES, dow 3 highs up there
(Mar 18-13:22) mike: things may slow down this afternoon due to NCAA Hoops action

(Mar 18-13:37) mike: 59 is pivotal now. needs to stay over/ hold on pullback. NQ its 1937.1936 key area

Mar 18, 2010 14:24 mike: The ES bounced back to 1160.50 but backed off. The market is vulnerable under 1162-1163 on the ES but things are slowing down due to the NCAA Basketball tourney. A break/ hold under 1158.00-1157.50 is needed to put the pressure on. Next update late this evening.

Mar 18, 2010 14:50 mike: a dangerous, bearish pattern. sell a bounce if not short, nq has good downside

Mar 18, 2010 15:29 mike: those pop over 60-61 are quickly rejected, easier trade for scalps today. or a drop to 59 that reverses... a tired, extended mkt, but a break of 58 area needed to put pressure on.

Mar 18, 2010 15:30 mike: enjoy the rest of your day
 

Wednesday - March 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 17-10:09) mike: 1160 is pivotal, a short if broken

(Mar 17-10:36) mike: The ES gapped up and rallied to 1161.50 in the first 30 minutes and has pulled back. The 1161.00-1161.50 area should be a top for the morning and the 1157-1156 area must hold to avoid a bigger reversal.

(Mar 17-11:04) mike: 2 way range, buy a reversal from 59 area, sell reversal around 62 area

(Mar 17-11:36) mike: The pullback held at 1158.50 and the move over 1160.75 kicked in more buying took them to the 1162.00-1163.00 zone so far. As long as the 1160.75-1160.00 area is held, the move is just a pullback. However, a break back under that zone would likely mean a high is in place for the day.


(Mar 17-11:42) mike: a trend up day, looking a bit tired. the 1162-63 area and 1939.75-1940.50 on NQ- both important resistance zones

(Mar 17-12:14) mike: The ES rejected its 1162.00-1163.00 zone and NQ reversed its 1939.75-1940.50 zone, and unless broken and held a decent pullback should occur especially if 1160.75 is broken.

(Mar 17-12:36) mike: need to break/ hold that 60.75

(Mar 17-13:32) mike: The 1160.75 level was touched and held and a new high was made. For now the market stays in trend up mode unless the 116 level breaks.

(Mar 17-14:51) mike: A 123 top was made at the highs and the trends/ dynamics have changed and bounces are very good shorting opportunities.
(Mar 17-14:51) mike: swing trade short

(Mar 17-15:22) mike: stay short part for swing trade

(Mar 17-15:24) mike: day trade shorts, 60.00-60.50 resist, 62 then key

Tuesday - March 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 16-09:47) mike: gap filled, 1145 area must hold to get a bounce

(Mar 16-10:01) mike: bounce from 45.50, now tht s key supp

(Mar 16-10:26) mike: The gap up open was sold and the ES dropped to yesterday's closing range before turning up. The test of the 1149.00 high was rejected, but the 1145.50-1145.00 is now key support that should hold to keep the market in decent shape.

(Mar 16-11:30) mike: if 51.50 breaks, the trend up move in jeopardy

(Mar 16-11:36) mike: The ES took out 1149.00 and then exploded higher from 1148.50 so that area is now a key support. The action off of the 1153.00 high has the market looking a bit tired and a scalp short from up there should work out. However, as long as the 1149.00-1148.50 is held no damage is done.

(Mar 16-12:48) mike: The 1153 level was rejected and the market is backing off. If a pop up fails near 1151.50-1152.00 stalls it's a short with a tight stop. The 1149.00-1148.50 area is still a key support before and after the Fed release.

(Mar 16-13:30) mike: a break/ hold of 1151 needed to get a bounce

(Mar 16-13:52) mike: look for a run up to be sold

(Mar 16-14:48) mike: 1148.50 now a major area, a break of that tops the mkt

(Mar 16-15:16) mike: The 1154.00 resistance was rejected, but the 1149.00-1148.50 area held and that's a major/ transition zone now that must hold.

Monday - March 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Mar 15, 2010 9:56 mike: that should be a high , under 1924 NQ and 1146 es

Mar 15, 2010 10:10 mike: The 1142.50-1142.00 zone was broken and then the ES bounced back to the 1145 area and turned down fast. Those highs shouldn't be exceeded now. If the 10600 level on the Dow cash is broken and not quickly reversed, then another push lower is likely.

Mar 15, 2010 10:27 mike: need to hold 42.50

Mar 15, 2010 10:34 mike: sell under the 1146-1147 zone. a bounce will not stick

Mar 15, 2010 10:47 mike: NQ taking over, now need to break Dow 10600 to break down . bounces still are shorts

Mar 15, 2010 11:02 mike: 1914-1915 on NQ a key resist. Dow holds 10600, or the mkt gets hit w/ a decent selloff today

Mar 15, 2010 11:12 mike: 41.00-41.50 resist now
Mar 15, 2010 11:14 mike: trend day going if no bounce off of 1138.50-1138.00...

Mar 15, 2010 11:26 mike: 38.50 small resist/

Mar 15, 2010 11:33 mike: 38.50 rejected. key trend resist

Mar 15, 2010 12:05 mike: mini wedge, should test/break low

Mar 15, 2010 12:23 mike: they will be ok for a bit as long as 38 holds

Mar 15, 2010 12:27 mike: 38 held but 39 is a lid right now, must be cleared / held

Mar 15, 2010 12:36 mike: a feeble bounce. 1138 is holding, but still a ''short bounces' day still going

Mar 15, 2010 12:44 mike: 40.25-41.00 area should fail

Mar 15, 2010 12:48 mike: The ES found buyers at 1138.00 and a bounce towards 1141 is in gear. That area should be hard to get through and hold. A test of 1138 must hold now or another drop is in the cards.

Mar 15, 2010 13:06 mike: 1139 is pivotal, was high of range, broken on upside and held 2 times = must stay over it or we break

Mar 15, 2010 13:20 mike: losing momentum. if 39 breaks , a wedge ca n break too on dow cash

(Mar 15-13:44) mike: if 40 breaks, a bounce high in place

(Mar 15-13:52) mike: they need to stay up here, over 40, to keep upside grind in gear.
(Mar 15-13:55) mike: 1908.50-1909.00 NQ a key resist there.

(Mar 15-14:05) mike: The ES made a bounce high at 1140.75 and it joins the 60ema on the 5 minute chart. The move needs to get over that area on the ES and the 1909 area on the NQ and not quickly turn back down to avoid another drop.

(Mar 15-14:11) mike: wedge broke, a bounce will fail. 1140 area a good short if reached

(Mar 15-14:31) mike: 90 minutes till stocks close. this bounce should be it for now.
(Mar 15-14:32) mike: choppy downside in front of Fed tomorrow, shorts in charge

(Mar 15-14:48) mike: shorts squeezed on break of 39.75. thats now good supp, 42.50 resist

(Mar 15-14:55) mike: 40.75-40.25 should be strong support now or trends go back down. if 42.50-43.00 not reversed, a long shot chance of 1146.50-1147.00

(Mar 15-15:03) mike: 41.25 needs to hold now

(Mar 15-15:19) mike: 41.75-41.00 supp that should/ must hold.

(Mar 15-15:37) mike: they stay strong as long as 43.00-42.50 held on pullback

(Mar 15-15:51) mike: quite volatile in front of Fed meeting tomorrow. they reached 46.50-47.00 , 44.50 good supp now needs to stay over to still look ok on upside

(Mar 15-15:59) mike: have a good rest of the day

Friday - March 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 12-09:27) mike: 1149.50-1151.00 area must be cleared and not quickly reversed to avoid dip towards 47-46

(Mar 12-09:46) mike: could be a trend down day if 46 breaks and is held on a bounce

(Mar 12-10:06) mike: 46.00-46.50resist
(Mar 12-10:06) mike: sell bounces, a top at big resist on sp500 cash

(Mar 12-10:12) mike: The ES reversed from the 1149.50-1151.00 zone and dropped to test the 1142.50-1142.00 zone. This could be a trend day if 1142 is broken and held on a bounce. A test of the 1146 area should be sold.

(Mar 12-10:29) mike: 42 key supp must hold, the 1146 is good resist

(Mar 12-10:40) mike: 43.50 shouldn't be broken now, or 42 has good chance of breaking

(Mar 12-10:48) mike: just short bounces for now
(Mar 12-10:49) mike: 38 should be tested today

(Mar 12-11:06) mike: a pop up to 45.50-46.00 that stalls is a good short. mkt acting soggy, but the mkt doesn't break down hard unless 42 is broken / held

(Mar 12-11:27) mike: a pullback need to hold 45.00-44.50 now, to avoid more downside

(Mar 12-11:40) mike: held small supp, but that 1146.25 is pivotal resist. a transition, should not be exceeded/ held

(Mar 12-11:46) mike: The ES bounced off of 1142.00 and reached 1146.50 before turning down. The 1144.50 level now must hold to avoid a breakdown.

(Mar 12-12:19) mike: the ES has been holding/ bouncing from the 60 ema on5 min chart . its 43.50 nw. if broken and not reversed fast, then they roll over. a range unless broken/ held

(Mar 12-12:33) mike: looking ugly, a nose dive possible

(Mar 12-12:45) mike: The ES has been turned back from the 1146.00-1146.50 area which was yesterday's closes, and then the first pullback low off of the 1150.25 top. The market is bearish unless that area is exceeded and then held on a pullback. The market is extremely vulnerable under that area.

(Mar 12-13:09) mike: if 44.50 breaks, we test 43-42 zone again

(Mar 12-13:38) mike: The ES moved up to 1146.00 and backed off again in range bound trading after the early dump. The bottom of this range is at 1142.00, the key support, so the ES needs to breakout and hold over 1146.00-1146.50 area to avoid a trip back there. If 1142 is broken, then the downside could gather steam.

(Mar 12-14:18) mike: toppy, 46.00-46.50 needs cleared/ held -- but keeps failing. shorts in order even up to test 1154 on sp500 cash if there is 1 more pop up . 44.50 now must hold

(Mar 12-14:44) mike: that 46.00-46.50 area should be strong resist and a short for a sizable drop under that

(Mar 12-15:00) mike: it looks like they will end the day around here unless 43-42 breaks or 46.50 broken and not reversed again -- everyone is watching basketball tourneys

(Mar 12-15:18) mike: i'm staying short unless a close over 46. NQ broke wedge, mkt is topped out

(Mar 12-15:44) mike: right at 330pm from jus 2 ticks over support short covering run starts. flat over weekend, a range to break first

Thursday - March 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 11-10:31) mike: if 38 breaks its a sell

(Mar 11-10:36) mike: The ES opened lower and then turned up from the 1134.50-1134.00 area however the bounce is not strong yet and 1138 must hold to avoid another drop.

(Mar 11-10:56) mike: 39 now key supp, a high in if broken

(Mar 11-11:10) mike: 39 held but its a short on a pop to 40.50 area an reverses. pressure on

(Mar 11-12:03) mike: The ES reversed down from 1141.50 and near yesterday's highs on the NQ. However, so far the 1138.00 level held. If that breaks, and there isn't a quick turn up, then the pressure should be on the downside. The market is still vulnerable unless 1143 is broken and held on a pullback.

(Mar 11-12:52) mike: The 1138 level broke, but the move didn't accellerate. A move over 1140 that crosses back down through 1140 would make a good short. The bounces are not holding so stay with that side under 1140.

(Mar 11-13:06) mike: 38.75 now must hold, else reversal

(Mar 11-13:21) mike: 1140 reverse, must stay under tht now. bid 38.75 to cover part. tighten stop

(Mar 11-14:01) mike: swing trade short at 1140-ish / stop 1144.50 for now

(Mar 11-14:36) mike: The ES popped to 1141 and revered down through 1140 and now the ES needs to break 1138 then 1136 to stop the 2-sided action we are getting today.

(Mar 11-15:38) mike: 1144 will be hard to get thru n hold, if 1142 is broken, 1140.50 should be tested

(Mar 11-15:47) mike: 1142 is the key level, must break that and not reverse to turn down. this move can possibly see 1154 on sp500 cash, but that would be reversed . if 44 isn't broken and 42 breaks the downside could break hard.
 

Wednesday - March 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 10-10:25) mike: if 44 break/ hold then 1142 is now key supp
(Mar 10-10:26) mike: the mkt ok as long as 42 not broken

(Mar 10-11:23) mike: The 1147-1148 zone was rejected, but as long as the 1146.00-1145.50 area is held, the market will avoid a reversal

(Mar 10-12:15) mike: The 1146.00-1145.50 area was broken, and it was then rejected on a bounce. That's a short if tested. If 11444.50 is is not exceeded then the 1136 area could be in the cards.

(Mar 10-13:37) mike: a wedge break possible, 1142 must hold now

(Mar 10-14:43) mike: need 46 to break

(Mar 10-15:30) mike: stay short bounces, you'll get em back

(Mar 10-15:40) mike: 44.50 resist. topped out, a swing here

Tuesday - March 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 09-10:06) mike: 36 need to hold, mkt ok over that

(Mar 09-10:29) mike: The gap down open was reversed and rallied to 1139.50-1140.00 so far. A break of 1138.00-1137.50 should change the trends. The 1136 area is key and must hold to avoid a test of the lows.

(Mar 09-10:55) mike: 39 now must hold, trend day unless broken

(Mar 09-11:05) mike: those are tops, sell em on a pop,

(Mar 09-11:30) mike: 123 top possible. 1138 key / pivotal supp

(Mar 09-11:42) mike: 1141.50-1142.00 a short if reversred for a scalp , maybe more

(Mar 09-13:06) mike: The 1141.50-1142.00 area was exceeded in trend up mode so far. A pullback should be no more than 3 ES points, otherwise the pace is broken. That 1142 area now should be pivotal.

(Mar 09-13:45) mike: a top up there sell 44.25, stop over high
(Mar 09-13:46) mike: 42 verry key sup

(Mar 09-14:44) mike: thats a 123 top, use strength to get swing trade short

(Mar 09-15:22) mike: The 1142 area was broken and then was resistance on a bounce and the market is a short on any strength now.

(Mar 09-15:22) mike: stay short

Monday - March 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 08-10:21) mike: The early strength reversed about 15 minutes in but so far the pullback held at 1137.00 and turned up. It should be a 2-sided day with the NQ leading the way. The 1137 area must hold or things change.

(Mar 08-10:36) mike: 123 top, sell bounces under 1140

(Mar 08-11:51) mike: The ES made a 123 type top off the 1140 level and the 1137 level was broken. The market is vulnerable and a short unless the 1140 area is exceeded and held on a pullback. The 1133.00-1132.50 area should not break, or this is more than a pullback.

(Mar 08-11:54) mike: 37.50 shouldn't be exceeded . held
(Mar 08-11:55) mike: IF they somehow get to 38.50 and stall, a good short

(Mar 08-13:05) mike: 38 now supp / must hold

(Mar 08-13:54) mike: 1141.50-1142.00 next if no reversal under 39.00-38.50 supp

(Mar 08-14:46) mike: The 1140 area has been tough to break through, but for now it would take a break/hold under 1138 to turn the market lower.

(Mar 08-15:34) mike: i'm avoiding longs for now, if 36.00-35.50 breaks, we will have a top in

(Mar 08-16:00) mike: carrying over shorts from 39.50 or yo there near 1894 over night
(Mar 08-16:00) mike: have a great rest of the day

Friday - March 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Mar 5, 2010 9:15 mike: 1125.50-1124.50 support
Mar 5, 2010 9:17 mike: 1132.00-1133.00 key resist

Mar 5, 2010 10:17 mike: don't short this zone unless 31.50 broken
Mar 5, 2010 10:18 mike: mkt ok over 1131.50 - but small short here
Mar 5, 2010 10:19 mike: stop over 1133
Mar 5, 2010 10:20 mike: 31.50 must break and 30.50 is good supp so its a scalp
Mar 5, 2010 10:22 mike: wait to see id 31 gets broken, a good bid to this.

Mar 5, 2010 10:32 mike: The gap up open was sold but the first dip was reversed from 1126 and a stair step higher is in gear. Gap days can be trend days and the market is in good shape unless the 1131.50-1130.75 zone is broken. If that happens, then a high could be in place.

Mar 5, 2010 10:34 mike: 33.00-32.50 should hold to avoid weakening up here
Mar 5, 2010 10:37 mike: if no bounce here, a high is in for awhile
Mar 5, 2010 10:41 mike: toppy now , a short up here
Mar 5, 2010 10:43 mike: 32.50 needs to break here soon to roll over a bit

Mar 5, 2010 10:48 mike: 31.50-30.75 zone is good support if 32.50 breaks. a wedge type pattern, a pop to a lower high that reverses is a better short since 32.50 holding

Mar 5, 2010 11:02 mike: dips are shallow on trend days, for now only a break of 32.50 changes trend

Mar 5, 2010 11:20 mike: must push thru 34.50 soon

Mar 5, 2010 11:31 mike: 123 top
Mar 5, 2010 11:31 mike: a short under 34.50 now

Mar 5, 2010 11:38 mike: 32.50 supp lock in at least partial profit on any shorts, tighten stop

Mar 5, 2010 11:43 mike: The ES reached 1134.50 and then after a dip the 1134.50 level was tested and reversed. The 1132.50-1132.00 area now needs to hold to avoid rolling over.

Mar 5, 2010 12:17 mike: feels ready to break soon , must get over 33.50 n not reverse

Mar 5, 2010 12:28 mike: A very small range up here. with 32.50 holding, trend day still intact. a very extended move, a break could be sharp lean

Mar 5, 2010 12:46 mike: The 1132.50-1132.00 area is good support on a trend day and only a break of that will turn the market down.

Mar 5, 2010 13:18 mike: Watch for a turn in the 2:20-2:40 timeframe. the 32.50 level very key now that a token higher high.

(Mar 05-13:31) mike: mkt getting tired, i'm shorting NQ if 1885 is broken and they bounce, or if they test 1888 and stall or are rejected

(Mar 05-13:43) mike: it looked like a top, but still must break 32.50 to roll over

(Mar 05-13:59) mike: a scalp mkt both ways. not short at this moment. need proof i believe

(Mar 05-14:07) mike: a toss up -- still trend up so if a dip to 33 area reverses, buy for a bounce. the upside appears limited the way they struggle up here all day, but not fighting a trend day

(Mar 05-14:13) mike: that was not good, short bounces now
(Mar 05-14:15) mike: the token new high 2 times today sold, if they pop up there and reverse, lots of longs wants to take profit up there

(Mar 05-14:40) mike: The 1132.50 area has held all day, but a poke over the 1135.00 high will likely reverse. Still, it will take a break/hold under 1133.00-1132.50 now to damage the trend up move.

(Mar 05-14:52) mike: 1136 needs to hold

(Mar 05-15:11) mike: the low was made about 15 minutes into trading. if 37 can hold, the high should be made with 15 minutes left in stock trading
(Mar 05-15:15) mike: 2:42pm they accelerate the uptrend. this will reverse on monday, possibly from up in the 1140's but up here i feel the next big move is in the other direction towards 1125-ish

(Mar 05-15:20) mike: 37 a key area now. a pop here won't stick , must break/ hold over 38

(Mar 05-15:41) mike: support at 35.50-35.00 breakout area. 38 still must be taken out , nq already topped

(Mar 05-15:56) mike: there should be good volatility next week. mkt vulnerable under 38. enjoy the rest of your day, and weekend

Thursday - March 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 04-09:47) mike: top i think, sell under 22.50-23.00

(Mar 04-09:54) mike: careful short unless 1120 is broken , a sclp only
(Mar 04-10:00) mike: tht should be it
(Mar 04-10:05) mike: 22.50-23.00 must be cleared / held. a toppy area. or break/ hold under 20.00
(Mar 04-10:05) mike: short under 23 here,

(Mar 04-10:22) mike: 18.50-17.50 a support to scalp out
(Mar 04-10:24) mike: 21.00-21.50 good resist now
(Mar 04-10:29) mike: The early strength was reversed at 1123, the breakdown area from yesterday. That should be a top, and bounces are still shorting opportunities. The 111.80-1118.00 area will ned to hold to avoid testing/ breaking the 1115.50-1115.25 area

(Mar 04-10:37) mike: stay with shorts, 1120.50 again key resist

(Mar 04-10:43) mike: key supp nailed, 1112-1111 still likely if 18.50-19.00 not exceeded

(Mar 04-10:54) mike: The ES dropped down 7.50 points to the 1115.50-1115.25 area and turned up. The 1112-1111 area could be seen if 1118.50-1119.00 is not exceeded and held.

(Mar 04-11:00) mike: not impressive bounce from a key area. 3 days now w/ a low in that 1115.50-1115.25, and that was former resist. a transistion to the ownside occurs if/ when that is broken

(Mar 04-11:17) mike: 1120.00-1120.50 key resist again. 18.50 supp now need to hold or we drop again

(Mar 04-11:33) mike: they should cave in here

(Mar 04-11:51) mike: The ES reached 1120.00 on the bounce from the 1115.50 low. That area was tested 3 days in a row now, and was a former resistance area. That is a major area that must hold, or the market makes a bigger picture transition to the downside. On top here, the 1120.00-1120.50 zone is still a pivotal resistance zone. We are in a choppy trading range right now, but the market is still vulnerable unless that 1120.00-1120.50 zone is cut through with some momentum.

(Mar 04-12:08) mike: be short under 1120.00-1120.50, its a lid like 1122.75 was yesterday after breaking 1123. a 2 point range for awhile should break bfore 12:15

(Mar 04-12:40) mike: 3rd failure at/under 1120, that should be it, a bounce off 1117.75 area is a must - or to 1115 we go again

(Mar 04-13:00) mike: as long as the bottom of the range keeps being bid, buy em down there and sell em at the top of this range. keep it light and use a tight stop on other side of range both ways

(Mar 04-13:18) mike: 19.50-19.00 should/ must hold now

(Mar 04-13:27) mike: it broke, a bounce will fail to clear 1120.50 resist still
(Mar 04-13:31) mike: poor action, if there is a pop its a short w/ stop over 20.50

(Mar 04-13:49) mike: this range trade, small daily ranges, it winding the mkt into an energy explosion soon. its not good id 1115 isn't reversed.
(Mar 04-13:51) mike: all of these drop lately were bid right back up but then failing. this shouldn't exceeded 1119.50 or so now

(Mar 04-14:06) mike: 19.00 reached with Tick extreme, now mid range too - key spot if going lower here

(Mar 04-14:26) mike: it looks like we'll chop around in between 1120-ish and 1115-ish before employment data in the morning. the NQ is acting pretty well. but ES is sluggish. don't get chopped up in this, tomorrow a better day volatility-wise


(Mar 04-14:30) mike: the NQ held 1850-1849 three times this morning, thats the key to holding the mkt up, if they drop here, it must be defended a 4th time, not easy

(Mar 04-14:42) mike: The ES turned up from 1117.75 and the NQ held 1850-1849 three times this afternoon and we got a pop up to 1120.25 so far. The market is in decent shape as long as those lows are held on a pullback, but still the odds of a bounce holding doesn't look good.

(Mar 04-15:04) mike: another failure. internal gauges will have bearish divergence so 1115 area could break tomorrow

(Mar 04-15:26) mike: they made a little double top at 20.75 but shallow pullback. that 1119 should hold, or else they'll get hit in the last 30 minutes.

(Mar 4-15:54) mike: looks like 1120.50-1120.00 is now supp - update will be short and later than normal. have a good rest of the day

Wednesday - March 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 03-09:29) mike: 19.25-18.50 needs to hold now,

(Mar 03-09:33) mike: short under 20.50
(Mar 03-09:35) mike: 18.50 supp 1

(Mar 03-09:48) mike: ISM Services top of the hour. 1118 is key supp now

(Mar 03-10:05) mike: start getting swing trade short on bounce, highs should be in
(Mar 03-10:09) mike: 1120.50 is pivotal, a break of that takes them to 1118 , a major area today

(Mar 03-10:16) mike: 1120.25 low there... still, 1122 needs to be cleared/ held to avoid trouble

(Mar 03-10:21) mike: 123 pattern

(Mar 03-10:27) mike: The ES opened higher, pulled back to 1118.25, then turned back up and took out the 1122.75 high from yesterday. The 1120 level needs to hold to avoid a reversal now. A turn down near 1123 is a short, but the pressure is not on unless 1120 and then 1118 are broken.

(Mar 03-10:29) mike: that 123 pattern should mark a top / 1122.50 resist now must be cleared to nullify it

(Mar 03-10:50) mike: nq rejected 1859 area 4 times, needs taken out -- a break under 1855 there could bring the mkt down. and break a wedge pattern -- but still, 1120 is the line in the sand . nothing bad happens unless broken

(Mar 03-11:05) mike: The ES turned down from 1123.25 but only dipped to 1121.75 before turning back up and reaching 1124.50 so far. The 1122.50-1122.00 area now needs to hold to avoid breaking the trend and starting a decent pullback. The 1126.50-1128.00 area is next resistance on this move up, and a potential reversal area if the move stalls out.

(Mar 03-11:10) mike: 23.50 needs to hold now or trends change

(Mar 03-11:29) mike: mkt getting tired here, but as long as 1123 holds the trend up move continues. if broken, then things change. 26.50-28.00 should offer good resist if reached

(Mar 03-11:42) mike: tired mkt , a bounce from 1123 here is a short

(Mar 03-11:53) mike: 24.25 should not be exceed/ held now and 23 must break within next 5-10 minutes, maximum, to roll over

(Mar 03-12:00) mike: The ES has been in a choppy trend up mode to 1125, and now must stay over 1123 to avoid a reversal. The 1126.50-1128.00 area is still possible, but the 1123 level must not break. Also, trend moves into a 2pm Fed announcement are usually reversed so careful with any long positions into that timeframe.

(Mar 03-12:07) mike: a pullback to 1120.50-1119.75 is a key area for today, if that is not reversed the bigger picture changes to bearish.
(Mar 03-12:11) mike: if the mkt tests the highs [tho it shouldn't] or makes a lower high and stalls out, a swing trade short is in order, this is all set up for a flop very soon.

(Mar 03-12:49) mike: The NQ would need to get over 1858, mkt still in sell bounce mode

(Mar 03-12:57) mike: The market reversed afterthe 123 top/ double top at 1125 and the break of 1123 turned trends down. The bounces are shorts as per last night's update the downside could gather steam. The 1120.50-1119.75 area is key support and a break would be another sign of a break down.

(Mar 03-13:04) mike: well they proved that 1120.50-1119.75 is a key area. a scalp long from there if tested/ reversed but don't get married to a long up here

(Mar 03-13:36) mike: the target on swing trade is 1112-1111 area on 1/2 of it. need a break / hold here under 1120 for more pressure

(Mar 03-13:47) mike: The 1120.50 level gave a bounce to 1122.75, but it didn't stick as support has turned into resistance. The 1120.50-1119.75 area is being tested and after the Beige book a break/hold under that area would put pressure on the downside. The 1112-1111 area could be tested if that occurs.

(Mar 03-14:18) mike: 22.75 shouldn't be exceeded, still a short on bouces

(Mar 03-14:24) mike: 1115.25 should be tested, 1112-1111 still a tarrget. 22.50-23.00 good resist

(Mar 03-14:32) mike: 1120.50-1121.00 initial resist on a bounce , beware if Vix closes the day up. it will give 4 of 5 possible sell sigs
(Mar 03-14:37) mike: The 1122.75 resistance turned the market back down and the break of 1120.50 opened the door for more selling. Bounces will not hold so stay with shorts down to 1115 or the 1112-1111 zone. The 1120.50-1121.00 should offer good resistance, and 1122.75 now key resistance.

(Mar 03-14:41) mike: if NQ breaks 1849, that could add pressure now

(Mar 03-14:47) mike: if you have shorts from around 1123 or so, and a day trade, cover at least some dn here
(Mar 03-14:47) mike: swing trade, still have 1112-1111 in site, maybe not today
(Mar 03-14:51) mike: some support down here, but a top in and could see a larger drop before done on the downside

(Mar 03-15:03) mike: 1850 on NQ looks key to get over/ hld now. ES should stay under 1120

(Mar 03-15:13) mike: should fail in here under 19 if going lower
(Mar 03-15:16) mike: under 1120.00-1120.50 resist - 1853-54 NQ

(Mar 03-15:22) mike: a break of 17.50 needed to put pressure on

(Mar 03-15:30) mike: 17.50 held. still, bounce will have a hard time sticking. 1120.50 area still key above

(Mar 03-15:50) mike: key area to end the day near. as long as 17.50 holds, it can avoid breaking down tomorrow

(Mar 03-15:52) mike: fyi, there is still an opening for trading camp that starts on Sunday. we'll cover why this selling was ''high odds'' to start. contact tradestalker2@verizon.net if you are interested.
(Mar 03-15:54) mike: watch 1120.00-1120.50 for resist overnight, a key area now. enjoy the rest of your day.

Tuesday- March 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 02-09:21) mike: 1121.50-1122.50 rejected - very key resist now this morning

(Mar 02-09:51) mike: 1119.75 shouldn't be exceeded / held now - it must to avoid trouble

(Mar 02-10:07) mike: A 123 Top

(Mar 02-10:15) mike: short the bounces down to 1115-1114 or lower, ugly pattern

(Mar 02-10:21) mike: 18.50-19.25 area should besold if a valid reversal

(Mar 02-10:34) mike: stopped at 18.75 and dip to 17.50. it looks like 17.50 is pivotal this morn - a break/ hold turns trend down. over it, no damage done and 1121.50-1122.50 key resist above

(Mar 02-11:16) mike: this stair step higher is bullish, 1119.50 needs to hold . for a scalp the 1121.50-1122.50 area on the ES and 1856.75-1858.00 area on the NQ is a short with a tight top just over the zones

(Mar 02-11:27) mike: if 1120 ES and 1854 NQ break, then we get a drop to 17.50 or so. mkt ''okay'' unless we get that break

(Mar 02-11:45) mike: the ES needs to get thru 1121.75 soon, losing momentum churning at resist area

(Mar 02-11:50) mike: i'll be back in 30 min or so, still ill

(Mar 02-12:26) mike: 17.50 must hold, top in for awhile

(Mar 02-12:32) mike: The 1121.50-1122.50 area on the ES was a lid on top for about an hour, and that might be it for the rally if the 1117.50 area breaks. If that happens, then the 1112.00-1111.25 zone is huge and could be tested.

(Mar 02-13:03) mike: 1121.00 should be rejected if topping out up here today

(Mar 02-13:55) mike: a real snoozer so far, tomorrow we get Fed Beige book, and that will start an increase in volatility. narrow range, low volatility at a high for a move is normally bearish. the daily indicators getting close to overbought - and Vix looking similar to the 2/19 top. imo, not time to be long but for scalps up here . it will take a break of 1119 that isn't reversed right away to put any selling pressure on, so thats a key supp this afternoon.

(Mar 02-14:03) mike: 21.00 area needs to be strong supp now

(Mar 02-14:14) mike: The ES pulled back to 1118.75 and turned back up and just poked over the 1122.50 resistance by 1 tick and backed away. The market should be close to a top for this leg up, and the 1119 area needs to hold or a top will likely be in place.

(Mar 02-14:30) mike: a bounce to test the highs is a gift short, NQ especially. but top looks in place, 1121 now good resist

(Mar 02-15:11) mike: Since reversing from 1122.75 the ES pulled back to test the early lows reaching 1117.25 so far. It will take a break and hold back over 1121 in order to get out of trouble today.

(Mar 02-15:14) mike: holding over 19 should be hard to do if this is going lower

(Mar 02-15:20) mike: that 19 area needs to be exceeded / held or going quite a bit lower

(Mar 02-15:38) mike: a token lower low, day trade shorts should cover 16.75 or better

(Mar 02-15:45) mike: 15 min left, but this could see 1114.50 before close. 17 shouldnt be exceeded
(Mar 02-15:49) mike: not going to see 14.50 now. 18.50-19.25 very good resist
 

Monday- March 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 01-09:43) mike: 1110.50 rejected, 1108.50-1108.00 needs to hold to avoid reversal. 1829 on NQ

(Mar 01-10:12) mike: The ES reached the 1110.50-1111.00 zone and the move reversed about 16 minutes in, and then spiked to a low at 1107.25 on the ISM release and turned right back up. As long as the 1107.25-1106.50 area is held, the market will be in decent shape. Just be aware of a reversal from the 1114.50-1115.00 zone.

(Mar 01-10:19) mike: 1111.00-1110.50 supp, must hold to keep uptrends going

(Mar 01-10:36) mike: a bounce from here a short if stalls near 1111.50
(Mar 01-10:40) mike: that sure acted like a top. if the 1107 breaks today, then a decent pullback is underway

(Mar 01-10:56) mike: sell em in here near 1112, tight stop
(Mar 01-10:58) mike: need a break of 1111 soon , else scratch out, 15 seonds
(Mar 01-10:59) mike: scalped out of that.
(Mar 01-11:00) mike: 1111.00-1110.50 must break soon here
(Mar 01-11:04) mike: back short, tight stop as looks like a pivotal area here
(Mar 01-11:06) mike: 1111 needs to break soon t have dbl top on Dow at 10400
(Mar 01-11:08) mike: back off shorts for now, unless 1111 breaks or 1115 area reversed

(Mar 01-11:27) mike: The ES pulled back to 1108.75 and rallied to 1114.50 resistance so far. It has been a coppy trend up move but if the 1111.50-1111.00 area is broken, then that 1114.50-1115.00 area should be a top. If that area is exceeded, then 1117.50-1118.00 should be reversed.

(Mar 01-11:31) mike: that if 1112.50 is broken, then trends change. a pop to 1114.50-1115.00 area is a short zone with a tight stop.

(Mar 01-11:49) mike: a little 123 top, or double top at resist. need to stay over 1111.75 now - 20ema on 5 min chart held 2 times so far and rolls over if broken

(Mar 01-12:12) mike: if short from up here scalp out then buy a dip that holds over 1112 - if 15.00 breaks we can possibly see 1118-ish.... as long as 1112 is held

(Mar 01-12:16) mike: The market has been in a choppy trend up mode but failed twice at the 1114.50-1115.00 area so far. A pullback should hold over 1112 now or the trend move will be reversing.

(Mar 01-12:30) mike: option prices cheap, i'm buying some qqqq puts for a swing trade / decent pullback. reward/ risk on these look good

(Mar 01-12:55) mike: toppy up here, 1110.25 is 60ema and earlier low area - now a key area on a drop. then 1108. IF 1115 exceeded, then upside to 1118 possible, but upside lost mo

(Mar 01-13:02) mike: The 1112 level was broken and unless the 1114.50-1115.00 area is exceeded and not quickly reversed the pullback could go towards the 1108 area, and if that's not reversed then towards the 1105.50-1104.50 zone today.

(Mar 01-13:10) mike: that 1111.25 was a support around 11am this morning, and 1111 was old dbl top also... that area must hold or a sizable move lower is possible

(Mar 01-13:19) mike: if heading lower, this pop should fail and reverse from no higher than 13.75 here nd drop again soon

(Mar 01-13:50) mike: as long as 1111.50-1111.00 holds, more important today the 1842 little double bottom on NQ, the mkt will avoid any damage done. just beware of selling near 1117.50-1118.00 area if 1115 exceeded / held

(Mar 01-14:08) mike: shorting against resist until broken or 1111 tested

(Mar 01-14:18) mike: back to buying dips over 1113
(Mar 01-14:19) mike: 14.00-13.50 should hold if heading towards 1117
(Mar 01-14:22) mike: a prairie dog. tricky action. short a pop , especially if 1113.50 break here

(Mar 01-14:53) mike: i'm a bit under the weather here. this drop needs to hold 1111 area, otherwise we start to get hit with more selling. a break/ hold over 14.50 to take pressure off. back in awhile

(Mar 01-15:46) mike: a narrow range day must stay over 1112 area now or its a tip-off for a selloff
(Mar 01-15:48) mike: QQQQ puts slightly profitable here, a carry over for deeper drop here

Friday- February 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 26-10:35) mike: somehow my updates didn't get thru here. fixed now i hope. this is sell on a pop here, resist still rejected
(Feb 26-10:36) mike: 1101.50 is a key supp now , thats the break level
(Feb 26-10:38) mike: 07.50-08.00 next resist .
(Feb 26-10:41) mike: a reversal from up here likely, but dips are buying opportunity as long as 1101.50 area holds
(Feb 26-10:49) mike: The ES had more trouble at the 1103.50-1104.25 resistance and dropped to 1096.25 before reversing and taking out that resistance. The 1107-1108 area is a short if reached and reversed. The 1101.50-1101.00 area needs to hold on a pullback or else a top could be in place.

(Feb 26-10:55) mike: if 1101.50 holds, a bounce to a lower high a short
(Feb 26-10:59) mike: NQ MUST STAY OVER 1814, or its a sign of weakness

(Feb 26-11:24) mike: bounce to lower high reversed. 1105 should not be exceeded
(Feb 26-11:28) mike: the mkt holding ok. would be careful shorting for now, hit n run. 1101.50 is still key supp, 1814 NQ
(Feb 26-11:31) mike: scalp out if short, need break of 1102

(Feb 26-11:46) mike: mkt getting a bit tired. a wedge type pattern too
(Feb 26-11:50) mike: 1103 also 20ema on 5 min chart, which held on last 2 dips - and 1105 held for 2 seconds

(Feb 26-12:00) mike: The ES bounced to a lower high and REVERSED has pulled back towards the 1102.00-1101.50 support. If the 1105 area is rejected again, and/or the 1102.00-1101.50 area is broken, then things change and the bears would then take control.

(Feb 26-12:15) mike: 03.00-03.50 good resist, shouldn't be exceeded

(Feb 26-12:50) mike: be short under 02.50
(Feb 26-12:53) mike: 1099 should be seen
(Feb 26-12:57) mike: i'm unable to see messages - sorry. if 1099.0-1098.50 is not held, we can drop towards / thru the lows

(Feb 26-13:08) mike: struggling here under resist...
(Feb 26-13:09) mike: 1818 is also good resist,
(Feb 26-13:11) mike: however if 02.00-02.50 cleared again, and not reversed, could get a run towards 1107-1108 and that would be a short.

(Feb 26-13:28) mike: this is getting a bit stretched out, but its a buy above 1101.50 - if tht breaks its a fakeout
(Feb 26-13:30) mike: 1103.25 cover if long
(Feb 26-13:32) mike: a fake out move, next pop a short
(Feb 26-13:33) mike: ok, careful of reversal but they ok over 02.00 still

(Feb 26-13:45) mike: toppy here, but if 02.50 holds then 1105 still possible, 1107-1108 a big area if 1 more push here, not reverse again

(Feb 26-13:56) mike: 03.25 needs to hold to keep this going. but exiting any longs up here near 1105 not a bad idea

(Feb 26-14:15) mike: 1105 rejected a 3rd time, if 1103 holds, another pop could go to 1107-1108 then drops. of 03.00 breaks, we can drop to 1101 or so

(Feb 26-14:25) mike: this is very lethargic action. at these levels, having failed again at 1105 but still holding over 1102.50 support, a run to the 1107-1108 area a good short. need to hold 1102.50 to have tht chance

(Feb 26-14:31) mike: The ES got over the 1102 updated resistance and held and tested the 1105 high. The pullback held 1102.50 so the trends are still up. A run towards the 1107-1108 area that reverses is a good short. The 1102.50-1102.00 area needs to hold or a top will then likely be in place.

(Feb 26-14:40) mike: options are cheap, i'm buying some puts up here , this acts toppy , small position to start

(Feb 26-14:53) mike: if they can get thru 1105, still can go on up to 1107-1108.50 area. but getting late. they are ok as long as 1102.50 holds . but still i doubt at pop will stick

(Feb 26-15:01) mike: the 3rd try.. 1104.50 must hold now , it should final break thru
(Feb 26-15:04) mike: 1104.25 held.. but bid evaporate at a high so another pop is a short,
(Feb 26-15:09) mike: puts, add to them on a pop to test highs

(Feb 26-15:18) mike: if no reversal soon, 1107-1108 get attacked - 1104 must hold

(Feb 26-15:30) mike: that was the reversal. 1105 must not break or the drop could gather momentum
(Feb 26-15:33) mike: if you bought some puts, keep them over the w/e, especially if they settle under 1104
(Feb 26-15:36) mike: 1102.50-1102.00 is next support if 1104 breaks

(Feb 26-15:37) julie: Hey, Mike's birthday is tomorrow...HAPPY BIRTHDAY MIKE!!

(Feb 26-15:59) mike: a real battle zone. a close under1104 is bearish and mkt acts toppy anyhow

(Feb 26-16:01) mike: 1102.50-1102.00 tested, you can cover part / all of shorts there due to risk tolerance, i keeping it on
(Feb 26-16:02) mike: enjoy your weekend

Thursday- February 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 25-09:08) mike: 1088 tested now pre open. this will be a short on any rally intraday. 1094 then 1098-1099 are the 2 resist to clear/ hold to turn the trends

(Feb 25-09:26) mike: a big down day possible if 1094 not cleared, 83-82 next, then 79 is major

(Feb 25-09:50) mike: 88.50-89.00 now initial resist, must clear it and hold to take some pressure off.

(Feb 25-10:01) mike: 88.50-89.00 is pivotal. pressure on still

(Feb 25-10:11) mike: 3 tests of 88.50-89.00 resist. it needs to be exceeded/ held to take some pressure off

(Feb 25-10:20) mike: 4 rejections, but 87-86 area has been holding, that 87 must break to roll over again
(Feb 25-10:27) mike: a top there on nq
(Feb 25-10:36) mike: possible dbl top there 1788 nq. it must be cleared
(Feb 25-10:40) mike: a little wedge breakig
(Feb 25-10:45) mike: NQ is weaker and a better short , if a good trade on long side sets up, the ES a better long.
(Feb 25-10:51) mike: 87.50 now a key supp. its turning into a quiet sneak higher at the moment, but the mkt breaks lower if that is not held.
(Feb 25-11:01) mike: top, wedge now broken, a pop here is a short - 89.50-90 area
(Feb 25-11:05) mike: The ES popped up to test 1090.25 and reversed. That also is where the 20ema on 5 minute chart is at this time. The short side on bounces is still better odds for now.

(Feb 25-11:13) mike: 87.50 continues to catch a bid. if that finally goes, then 85 can be tested
(Feb 25-11:20) mike: still bearish under 89.50-90.00 area, if short covering part 85.75
(Feb 25-11:24) mike: 87 or better to cover part,
(Feb 25-11:26) mike: 87.50 or better... its hanging in there
(Feb 25-11:29) mike: feeble bounce - 89.50-90.00 still strong / key resist
(Feb 25-11:31) mike: should see 85.50 if 88 not cleared

(Feb 25-11:46) mike: 85.75 was reversed . 88 needs to be exceeded / held tho now to reverse a bit

(Feb 25-12:05) mike: ok, 85.75 hs been a floor, a dip can be bught for scallp long.. its now major supp now.

(Feb 25-12:38) mike: they are in buy mode over 88.00-87.50 now, up to 91.25-92.00 zone -- NQ needs to stay strong over 1784.50 or all bullish bets off

(Feb 25-12:42) mike: The ES grinded down to 1085.75 and made a little double bottom there before turning back up. The lows should be in place as long as the 1088.00-1087.50 area on the ES is held. The 1091.25-1092.00 area is next resistance.

(Feb 25-13:02) mike: 89.00 must hold, or it rolls over
(Feb 25-13:09) mike: 1091 .00-1091.50 is a cluster of resist, 3 things there and mkt is a short under that zone. a pop to 89.50 area tht stalls is a good short
(Feb 25-13:13) mike: The 1088.00-1087.50 area on the ES is holding, but unless the
ES gets over the 1091.00-1091.50 area and then holds on a pullback the market is vulnerable for more selling.

(Feb 25-13:56) mike: 97.50-98.50 is possible ,
(Feb 25-13:57) mike: 92.50 will hold if this to keep rallying
(Feb 25-14:02) mike: The ES took out the 1091.00-1091.50 area and sprinted to the 1098.50-1099.00 resistance. A pullback to the 1093.50-1092.50 area will hold if this is going to continue.

(Feb 25-14:16) mike: need to pop from here. a lower high that reverses would set up a short

(Feb 25-14:30) mike: short under 98
(Feb 25-14:39) mike: a break of that 95 low needed for move to 92-91 area where there is good support

(Feb 25-14:51) mike: stalled at 98, if that 95 level breaks, 92-91 supp must be reversed
(Feb 25-14:59) mike: The 1098 level was tested 4 times but 1095.50-1095.00 area is holding strong and now and the market only gets into trouble if 1095 is broken.

(Feb 25-15:08) mike: need to stay over 96.50 now, a reversal up here possib le , but ok unless break 96
(Feb 25-15:10) mike: if long sell out into this emotion
(Feb 25-15:12) mike: 98.00-97.50 neededs to hold or tht is likely a top

(Feb 25-15:18) mike: if 98.50 isn't held, then might see 95 tested.

(Feb 25-15:27) mike: 96 is now trend support that must hold to end the day in a bullish mode. - a break means this is a fake-out like yesterday close
(Feb 25-15:31) mike: 99.50 was held for 1 minute before turning down last time. need to hold that to keep going
(Feb 25-15:39) mike: watching 1805 area on NQ - it was a transition area, needs to stay over on a drop. a low made 20 minutes in, a high could be made near 3:45 if going to run out of gas
(Feb 25-15:42) mike: anyway, 99.50 held. still strong over that level
(Feb 25-15:44) mike: 02.50-03.00 strong resist
(Feb 25-15:48) mike: 1100.50 now must hol d
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 02.50-03.00 a short zone.
(Feb 25-15:55) mike: 98.50-98.00 needs to hold to keep this bullish looking into the close.
(Feb 25-15:58) mike: two different mkt's today, and a big ol trading range. as long as 98 holds the mkt is in a bullish mood. have a nice rest of the day

Wednesday- February 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 24-09:49) mike: 1099.00-1098.50 must hold now

(Feb 24-10:07) mike: The market opened strong and the ES reached 1102.00 and then dropped fast to 1097.25. The 1096.50 area needs to hold to avoid a top for the morning at least.

(Feb 24-10:24) mike: 97.50-98.00 pivotal resist

(Feb 24-10:42) mike: 98.00-97.50 area should hold

(Feb 24-10:53) mike: The market is moving fast as the reversal from 1094.00 saw buyers jumping in and running the ES straight up to the 1103.50-1104.00 resistance so far. We're getting 2-sided action, but the dips are buying opportunities as long as the 1092 level is held today.

(Feb 24-10:57) mike: 1102.50 must hold to keep this going. stall at resist, short / stop just over the high for a scalp
(Feb 24-11:03) mike: should take off higher from 1102.50 if still strong. if broken 1100.50-1100.00 supp

(Feb 24-11:12) mike: lost mo, must stay over 1102.50 or rolling over

(Feb 24-11:20) mike: 1101.25 needs to hold. a pop here should fail now

(Feb 24-11:33) mike: The ES reversed from 1105 but the pullback was well contained so far. A bounce to a lower high that reverses is a short. On the downside, the 1100.25 is small trend support and if broken then the 1097 area is pivotal and must be quickly reversed if reached.

Due to an appointment the next update will be later this
afternoon.
(Feb 24-11:34) mike: back in 90 minutes i hope

(Feb 24-13:33) mike: just back, my apologies. it looks very good unless 1101 breaks . 1108 next resist if it can stay over 03.50

(Feb 24-13:50) mike: if a top is in, 1103.75 resist will be sold

(Feb 24-14:00) mike: The ES made a double top at 1105 but as long as the 1101.50-1101.00 area is held the dips are buying opportunities. The action is good, but must hold above that area or else a reversal will occur.

(Feb 24-14:02) mike: i'k getting small short up here.
(Feb 24-14:03) mike: nq has a wedge type pattern
(Feb 24-14:05) mike: if 1101 breaks, a push to 97.50-96.50 would be possible

(Feb 24-14:12) mike: 10360 on Dow cash needs to hold to avoid a break of this cigar type pattern. stay with shorts, that is the tipping point
(Feb 24-14:15) mike: if short take part off near 1101.75 or thereabouts
(Feb 24-14:17) mike: if then 1101 is cut thru, a bounce back should fail near 1102.50 or lower

(Feb 24-14:22) mike: 1101.75-1101.25 area good support, possible transition area from up to down.

(Feb 24-14:34) mike: 1102.75 resist
(Feb 24-14:38) mike: nq broke triangle, 1812-1814 good short on nq
(Feb 24-14:39) mike: a big ''if they bounceback there n stall

(Feb 24-14:43) mike: The ES dropped back through 1101 and now 1098.50 must hold to avoid more downside, towards 1096.50-1096.00 or even 1093-1092 key support. There is resistance at 1102.00-1102.50 now.

(Feb 24-14:57) mike: the drop held 98.50 by half point, bounce missed 1102 resist by 1 tick. if you shorted near 1104 with me, cover and see which side wins here

(Feb 24-14:59) mike: nq is at a spot where it needs to turn up quick, else drop to test its 1800.50 low

(Feb 24-15:38) mike: the mkt has a good bid over 1098.50 it looks, so buy dips over that. a bit similar to yesterday last hour so far

(Feb 24-15:57) mike: 1102.25 now pivotal supp, should not be broken

 

Tuesday- February 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 23-10:05) mike: 98 held, but bounces will fail

(Feb 23-10:12) mike: 1100 resist now, 1093.75-1093.00 major supp short term.

(Feb 23-10:19) mike: The lower open was bought and the bounce failed just under 1108 resistance and dropped hard to test the 1093.75-1093.00 zone. The 1100 area must be cleared to take pressure off.

(Feb 23-10:25) mike: if 94 breaks, could drop towards 88.50-88.00 next key

(Feb 23-10:42) mike: need to get over 96-97 to change trend. not an impressive bounce from a key area just yet

(Feb 23-10:49) mike: 97 rejected. must break/ hold that to avoid more downside here

(Feb 23-11:09) mike: bounce high at 98 old supp, look for a pop to short if not short already. 1098.00-1100.50 is good/pivotal resist zone now

(Feb 23-11:26) mike: an attempt to double bottom at 10300 dow cash. that must hold or we head towards 1088

(Feb 23-11:33) mike: The ES bounced to 1098.00, which was former support, and turned back down. The low at 1093.50 support held, but the action is tepid at best. The 1088 area could be seen if the Dow cash breaks under 10300 and holds. Otherwise, the 1098.00-1100.50 zone is now key resistance that must be exceeded/ held to avoid another push lower.

(Feb 23-12:00) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart also at 1097.25 now. that area is a short until broken/ held
(Feb 23-12:07) mike: NQ again leading press lower. it has to get over 1795 to get out of trouble. 88.50 possible if Dow breaks 10300 here so manage shorts for now - nq the weaker avg

(Feb 23-12:23) mike: 94.00-94.50 resist now

(Feb 23-12:36) mike: as long as the ES doesn't bounce over 1095.50 and trend down continues, the low could be made around 3:45pm.

(Feb 23-12:43) mike: dow cash holding under 10300 after ttesting/ reversing on small bounce.
(Feb 23-12:45) mike: 88.50 target very close. if that area is not held, then we could see acceleration lower...

(Feb 23-12:54) mike: first positive all day so far. they shulda pushed under 1090, but reversed. a test that reverses could give a 2 pt bounce or so,

(Feb 23-13:05) mike: 93.50-94.00 now acting as good resist to sell in to

(Feb 23-13:14) mike: if 94 not exceeded, the supp below is at 1089.00-1088.50 which looks like major supp. then 1086.75-1086.25 . big picture, 1079,50 area. i'm back in 10 minutes

(Feb 23-13:32) mike: The 1093.50 level on the ES and 10300 on the Dow cash were broken but the market turned back up and is back above those levels. The 1097.50-1098.00 area should offer good resistance if there is to be another push lower.

(Feb 23-14:01) mike: trend down day still. 88.50 is still a target here.
(Feb 23-14:02) mike: 91 hit for 3rd time, should break

(Feb 23-14:45) mike: 93.50 now supp , need to hold that

(Feb 23-14:56) mike: only breaking 94 now turns trend

(Feb 23-15:08) mike: 94 need to holds, the 97.50-98.00 good resist

(Feb 23-15:15) mike: still ok over 94. 87.50 looks key now on top

(Feb 23-15:36) mike: 97.50 area rejected. 94 is must hold

(Feb 23-15:51) mike: 92 supp, 96 resist will be sold

Monday- February 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 22-09:18) mike: 1111.00-1112.00 good resist early

(Feb 22-09:44) mike: if u sold pop to resist cover a part at 1107 or better, trail stop on rest

(Feb 22-09:51) mike: 1103.50 if 1105 breaks. nq the leader down

(Feb 22-09:58) mike: nq still dropping while popped up. nq better short today. 1105 held so a trading range w/ short side bias

(Feb 22-10:09) mike: 1107.50 on es, 1819 nq must be cleared/ held on a dip to change trend . if 1103.50 not held, 98 are next

(Feb 22-10:15) mike: The ES popped up to 1111.00 resistance and that was sold and a dropped to the 1103.50 support area so far. The ES needs to break and hold 1107.75 while the NQ gets over 1819 and holds, or the trend down goes towards the 1098.75-1098.00 zone which must be held.

(Feb 22-10:22) mike: if 1107.75 exceeded, 1105.50 needs to hold to keep bounce alive
(Feb 22-10:23) mike: a short w/ tight stop here,
(Feb 22-10:24) mike: that should be a bounce high if going lower
(Feb 22-10:29) mike: 1106.00-1105.50 supp now - it must hold or the low gets tested
(Feb 22-10:33) mike: nq still under 1819, its vulnerable if not cleared soon

(Feb 22-10:45) mike: early action was very good and easy to read. the lows might be in if 1107 can hold, but i don't see this getting over 1111-1112. . if 1107 breaks the lows get a test

(Feb 22-10:51) mike: The ES reached 1108.50 while the NQ reached 1820 and the move stalled out. A test of the lows must quickly reverse or the 1098.75-1098.00 zone is in the cards. The 1105.50 level is minor support if no new low is made.

(Feb 22-11:00) mike: 1105.50 a price to scale out of part of any re- shorts
(Feb 22-11:02) mike: 07.50 now must be exceeded

(Feb 22-11:15) mike: 1101.00 target is 1103.50 goes. upside very limited today it looks like per the tech condition
(Feb 22-11:19) mike: 1106.50-1107.25 ''resist'' in here

(Feb 22-11:29) mike: 1101.00 next, if not held then 1098.75-1098.00 could give a reversal.

(Feb 22-11:34) mike: press shorts on nq on a pop that stalls/reverses near 1815
(Feb 22-11:35) mike: the Tick at +500 or so a good fade today

(Feb 22-11:40) mike: no flush to new low yet, 1106.50-1107.25 ''resist'' in here still
(Feb 22-11:46) mike: if they get back down to the 1104.00-1103.50 zone and reverse, scalp long. just dont overstay the welcome... 1106.50-1107.25 has been hard to hold

(Feb 22-11:53) mike: hey, reward/ risk on longs right now nt good
(Feb 22-11:53) mike: so just look for shorts today

(Feb 22-12:11) mike: will be back in 10 min. 1106.50-1107.00 pivotal resist

(Feb 22-12:35) mike: the dow needs to perk back up. in 2 pt range for over an hour. a breakout needs some oomph to get going either way.

(Feb 22-12:40) mike: The ES pulled back to 1104.25 and was tested 2 more times before turning back up and breaking that 2 point range. As long as the 1104.00-1103.50 area holds, no damage done. However, a break/ hold under that level turns all the trends down. A test of the 1111-1112 area should set up a very good short if we get there and the move stalls out and/or reverses.

(Feb 22-12:42) mike: 1106.50-1106.00 should hold , else a fake-out.

(Feb 22-13:03) mike: 06.50 held, now key

(Feb 22-13:17) mike: failed breakout. if another pop its a short under 1107.50

(Feb 22-13:46) mike: gaining strength, the move may not stick, but mkt ok as long as 1106 area not broken/ held now

(Feb 22-13:58) mike: sell a bounce from in here, no stick to bounces either.

(Feb 22-14:09) mike: The ES reached 1108.50 while the NQ reached 1819 and the move stalled out. Those must be exceeded and held to keep from a late day drop.

(Feb 22-14:14) mike: if 1106 breaks, look for a pop up - then a turn down from under 1108.50 kinda like this

(Feb 22-14:28) mike: now as long as the next pullback holds 1106.50-1106.00 area the mkt is in buy the dip mode. if that doesn't hold, then the move is reversed as the pattern breaks.

(Feb 22-14:46) mike: 1107.75 now supp that should hold
(Feb 22-14:49) mike: if they dont break doiwn and can pop up towards 1111-12 beware reversal
(Feb 22-15:02) mike: a drop thru 1107.75 means a break, a bounce thereafter a short

(Feb 22-15:21) mike: 1108.50 good supp , key support now , if 1111-1112 not reversed we can see 1115

(Feb 22-15:28) mike: wedge like pattern forming, the NQ is toppy, i'm small short that up here for a decent drop.
(Feb 22-15:30) mike: 1108.50-1108.00 the key supp last 30 minute now

(Feb 22-15:39) mike: 2 point dips were thhe biggest , so if 1108 isn't held thats a change of symmetry tooo

(Feb 22-15:43) mike: watch 1812 on NQ for important supp, 1106.50-1106
(Feb 22-15:43) mike: .on es
(Feb 22-15:47) mike: bearish action to end the day, if short up there, might keep a part for another drop tomorrow
(Feb 22-15:48) mike: 1108.50-1109.00 would need to be cleared to avoid more down.

(Feb 22-15:52) mike: a bearish close under 1106.00. enjoy the rest of your day

Friday- February 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 19-09:22) mike: the ES reached the 93.75-93.00 area to cover 1/2 of shorts. 1098 pivotal supp again , then 92.50 is

(Feb 19-09:37) mike: 1100.00-1099.50 needs to break

(Feb 19-09:52) mike: 1104 good resist, must be cleared. its a top it looks

(Feb 19-10:01) mike: The ES opened lower then turned up from the 1100.00-1099.50 support and bounced to 1104.25 new resistance. That was sold and the market is under pressure again. The 1098 level must hold or 1093.50-1093.00 would be next.

(Feb 19-10:07) mike: 93 should be seen today,
(Feb 19-10:07) mike: a bounce from just over 98 here should fail
(Feb 19-10:08) mike: 1102.50-1103.00 resist

(Feb 19-10:33) mike: The 1098.25-1097.75 zone is key / pivotal support and the pullback held at 1098.75. The bounce reached 1104.50 so far and turned, so it will take a break/ hold over 1104 or under 1098 to get a breakout of that range. Short the top side and buy the bottom side until broken.

(Feb 19-10:37) mike: need to hold 1102 to get 1 more push higher, if broken we head down

(Feb 19-10:51) mike: 1104 now must hld to keep upside
(Feb 19-10:56) mike: shorting area w/ stop just over the 1105.50 high
(Feb 19-11:04) mike: price patern bearish if 02.50 is broken. would make a bounce a better short.

(Feb 19-11:19) mike: 06.00-05.50 supp, then 1103.50 is major today now

(Feb 19-11:28) mike: 1106.50-1106.00 now must hold on a dip

(Feb 19-11:39) mike: if 1106 holds, the mkt is still ok on the upside. if broken, then a bounce should fail under the high.. or just continue going lower

(Feb 19-11:46) mike: The ES took out 1104 and then held at 1103.50 on a dip before running up again. The 1110.50-1112.00 could be tested, and it's a good resistance area so a reversal there is possible. A dip must hold 1106.25-1105.50 to avoid rolling over.


(Feb 19-12:15) mike: 1110.50-1112.00 reversed, but need push thru 1108.50 here, thats supp now, then 1107 now a key supp

(Feb 19-12:27) mike: 1114.84-1115.49 onSP500 cash might be a magnet. a transition area there

(Feb 19-12:35) mike: if 09.00-08.50 is not defended, first sign of decent pullback. grinding out higher highs / lows and must continue that pace or a sharp pullback
(Feb 19-12:36) mike: 1110.50-1112.00 also must be exceeded/ held
(Feb 19-12:38) mike: 1107 now a key supp , 09.00 should break

(Feb 19-12:45) mike: 1109.00 holds... 1110.50-1112.00 is a top it looks like since resist was rejected, if tested and reversed its a good short entry w/ stop over the resist zone. 1109.00 is key to the rally now here

(Feb 19-12:53) mike: if 1107 area tested and reverses again, scalp a long

(Feb 19-13:06) mike: The ES reached the 1110.50-1112.00 and backed off, but as long as a drop holds around the 1107-1106 area the upside should continue. If that area is not defended, then that 1111.00 level will be a short term top.

(Feb 19-13:13) mike: lots coming together at 1109.00-1108.50.. mkt okay unless broken. even then, a dip should hold yesterday high area . if not, then things could change

(Feb 19-13:24) mike: should see 07.00-06.50. then MUST reverse

(Feb 19-13:34) mike: i have doubt a bounce can stick. NQ the leader , 1110.50-1112.00 must be cleared to end well

(Feb 19-13:51) mike: something running this up just to sell em. 09.50 mustt be held, on bounce, supp 07-06 MUST hold
(Feb 19-13:56) mike: The ES dropped to 1107.00 so far, but must break/ hold over 1109.50 now to avoid futher downside.

(Feb 19-14:00) mike: if 1105.50 is not held, then a big reversal could occur and fall towards 1102 area, or back towards 1098
(Feb 19-14:04) mike: 1107 and dow 10400 and 1823 on NQ all are key/ pivotal supports

(Feb 19-14:11) mike: 1108 and 1825 need to be cleared, if this area breaks, it could be a big reversal day. must bounce over 1108 here

(Feb 19-14:22) mike: 1108 was taken out, so a pullback should hold that 1106.50 -- otherwise, this could get hit with selling down to 1103.50 area

(Feb 19-14:43) mike: putrid bounce off a supp, need to motor over 1109.50 to avoid a sinking into close
(Feb 19-14:46) mike: i will be cutting out around 3pm. its a toss up as to which way, feels heavy but options expiry too. need to get over 09.50 with gusto, or down she goes

(Feb 19-15:00) mike: ok, its a short under 1109. sell em under that

(Feb 19-15:15) mike: 1103.50 a target
(Feb 19-15:15) mike: 1107 good resist to end the day

(Feb 19-15:21) mike: NQ LEADING AND IT NEEDS TO GET OVER 1821 JUST TO TAKE SOME PRESSURE OFF
(Feb 19-15:21) mike: sorry re caps

(Feb 19-15:32) mike: 30 minute mark , option expiry. needs to get thru 1107/ hold it there.
(Feb 19-15:32) mike: have a good w/e

Thursday- February 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 18-09:12) mike: if you bought puts yesterday, cover part on the open. 1093.75-1093.00 must hold for the bulls

(Feb 18-09:59) mike: 98.50 needs to holds now -more data in 1 min

(Feb 18-10:09) mike: 98.50 was barely broken and turned right back up. if 98 breaks, then they roll over.

(Feb 18-10:19) mike: top just under a big resist, sell bounces now

(Feb 18-10:26) mike: 97 es , 10320 dow cash must hold to get a pop

(Feb 18-10:33) mike: the 1093.75-1093.00 zone held pre open and is good supp now. upside limited , 99.50 resist now

(Feb 18-10:42) mike: 99.00-99.50 looks like the make or break area
(Feb 18-10:45) mike: a short w / tight stop
(Feb 18-10:45) mike: need 98 to break soon
(Feb 18-10:48) mike: 99.50 shouldnt be exceeded
(Feb 18-10:49) mike: scratched
(Feb 18-10:49) mike: NQ is pretty strong, a second look now
(Feb 18-10:51) mike: if 98 breaks, then this heads south. in a struggle right now
(Feb 18-11:02) mike: 99 es and 1814 nq supp
(Feb 18-11:03) mike: if broken, trends change.

(Feb 18-11:18) mike: 99 is holding, but 1100.50 is a lid. short under tht 1100.50

(Feb 18-11:30) mike: The ES turned up from 1096.25 and has refused to crack and break down. The 1098.50 area needs to hold to avoid that break down. If that is taken out, the 1096 area would need to hold to avoid a drop to 1093.75-1093.00 key support. Now if 1102.50-1104.00 is reached instead, the market should reverse. If not, then a pop to the 1110.50-1112.00 area is possible.

(Feb 18-11:48) mike: this is holding well. a test of 98 a buy as soon as reversal starts. for now. 1100.50 needs to be rejected

(Feb 18-12:17) mike: if u bought 98, scalp out
(Feb 18-12:17) mike: poor action off 1100
(Feb 18-12:18) mike: they shoulda bounced like a rubber ball.... this isn't so strong

(Feb 18-12:31) mike: the key to holding or dropping is 1812.50 on NQ. that needs to hold, or the leaders will be breaking its range. 1816-17 key resist

(Feb 18-12:39) mike: 98 tested again but just short bounces under 1100-1102

(Feb 18-12:49) mike: The ES held 1098 twice after several attempts to get over 1100.50 and is in a tight range. The market is overbought and losing momentum after rejecting 1102.00 early. It will take a break/ hold over 1100 on the ES to avoid a sell-off.

(Feb 18-13:16) mike: it looks like they will be ok as long as 98.75 holds

(Feb 18-13:38) mike: 1100.50 rejection again. need to stay over 98.75-98.00 still to avoid break down

(Feb 18-13:52) mike: going for 1102.50-1104.00 - possibly on this run. if long, sell into that emotion. if they reverse there, or a bit under, then its a short with a stop just over the 1104 top of the range.

(Feb 18-14:00) mike: The ES held 1098 very well and broke/held 1100 so far. As long as 1100 holds the move will continue but a reversal from up 1102.50-1104.00 is likely.

(Feb 18-14:10) mike: a swing short from up here, 1 more push that reverses is ideal. or a break of 1100

(Feb 18-14:29) mike: The 1100 level was held and we got a pop to 1104.50 so far. This move has muscle, so only a break of 1102-1100 will turn the trends today.
(Feb 18-14:31) mike: if no bounce here, dn we go

(Feb 18-14:41) mike: that could be it if 1104.00-1103.50 area is not held

(Feb 18-14:52) mike: 1106.25 is the 62% fib retrace from 1147 high to 1040.25 swing low. then 1110.50-1112.00

(Feb 18-15:06) mike: a bounce off 04 should fail to make higher high
(Feb 18-15:08) mike: this is the start of a good sized drop, swing trade for me on part

(Feb 18-15:15) mike: need a break thru 1104 to get hit w/ selling 1101.50 would be minor supp

(Feb 18-15:31) mike: 30 minutes left, and 1104 still holding. if broken, a slide to 1100 needs to reverses

(Feb 18-15:54) mike: a stop on shorts will be just over 1110 for now . have a good rest of the day
(Feb 18-15:59) mike: a close under 1104 would be bearish pattern

Wednesday- February 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 17-09:25) mike: sell dn to 94

(Feb 17-10:09) mike: The gap up open was reversed from the 1097.75-1098.50 zone on the ES and dropped 3.50 points to 1095.25, and after 2 more tries to get through resistance failed, a drop held just over the 1094.00 high from yesterday. The 2-sided action should continue, but the market is vulnerable unless 1098.50 is broken and held.

(Feb 17-10:11) mike: if 98 is taken out, 1102.50-1104.00 is possible for a top

(Feb 17-10:17) mike: 96.50 needs to hold

(Feb 17-10:23) mike: 94.00 is the key support that needs to hold now, the drops are in an uptrend as long as 94 holds. 96.50 is minor supp, if it goes its a red flag
(Feb 17-10:25) mike: mkt very overbought, dur for 2 way trading. i like the short side on bounces w/ a tight stop
(Feb 17-10:28) mike: now 96.50 even more important now,
(Feb 17-10:30) mike: if 98.50 exceeded, 1102.50-1104.00 is reversal territory.
(Feb 17-10:33) mike: at resist a long time... should get going. 96.50 key supp now

(Feb 17-10:40) mike: a pop to test / break the high that reverses is a short, toppy acting

(Feb 17-10:51) mike: that could be a top, if 94.50-94.00 is not defended . a ''prairie dog'' pop over 98.50
(Feb 17-10:52) mike: so 98.50 still a key resist

(Feb 17-10:59) mike: The ES took out 1098.50 but then quickly reversed. Also, the Vix reversed a bit this morning. We are getting 2-sided action so far, but if the 1094.50-1094.00 area is not held then odds of a short term top go up.
(Feb 17-11:02) mike: if a bounce comes from 94 , resist then 97.00-97.50

(Feb 17-11:29) mike: could be a bounce, but character changed. the mkt is a short under 97 and 1805 NQ

(Feb 17-11:35) mike: 92.50-92.00 must reverses or else 1088.50 is a strong support that must be held.
(Feb 17-11:35) mike: 9450-95.50 resist 1
(Feb 17-11:41) mike: the big hurdles now are at 1097 ES, 1805 NQ, 10300 Dow cash. the trends are down unless those all are exceeded / held
(Feb 17-11:42) mike: 94.50 first resist tho still

(Feb 17-12:09) mike: The ES held just over the 1092 support and bounced back to 1097.00 resistance on the ES and 10300 on the Dow cash. Those
areas along with 1804-1805 on the NQ need to be cleared and not reversed to avoid another downdraft before the Fed Minutes at 2pm.

(Feb 17-12:32) mike: 95.50 now needs to hold or trends break. also, the low coincided w/ the 60ema on 5 min chart, so 73-72 needs to hold - otherwise things are changing more

(Feb 17-12:42) mike: thats 93-92 , not 73-72

(Feb 17-12:53) mike: mkt too overbought to hold gains it appears. will need to close over 98 to not look like a top. that, or rally back from a decent drop again. a reversal up from 92 area could happen, 88.50 a key support if a decent drop

(Feb 17-13:09) mike: if this can stay over 96.50, we can still get a test of 99.50, then 1102.50-1104.00 zone would be next resist. 95 is good supp that must hold now

(Feb 17-13:28) mike: a narrow range day while overbought normally sign of change of trend soon. puts in order now. if somehow they do pop to 1102.50-1104.00, and its rejected, the odds then are real good.

(Feb 17-13:34) mike: The ES has been unable to stay over 1098 for more than a minute or so, and this is acting toppy. Look to short a bounce up here, IF they somehow pop to the 1102.50-1104.00 area and it's rejected, then that would be the perfect setup but a high could already be in place.

(Feb 17-13:54) mike: Fed minutes in 7 minutes. 98 needs to be held on top, 95 held on bottom to break-out

(Feb 17-14:03) mike: top in, for now unless 68 held - bounces are shorts

(Feb 17-14:13) mike: something tried kicking in gear to upside near 95.50. that should hold if getting another pop
(Feb 17-14:17) mike: 95.50 held, but still acting like a top, 98 not exceeded/held

(Feb 17-14:35) mike: that 97.50 bounce high should be it, this move should reverse under 68. a test of 93-92 must quikly reverse

(Feb 17-14:47) mike: After the Fed Minutes the ES popped to 1097.50 and reversed.The market has been in a small range and unless the 1098 level is exceeded and not quickly reversed, the bounces should continue to fail. If there is a test of 1093-1092 it would need to be quickly reversed to avoid trouble this afternoon.

(Feb 17-15:11) mike: reward / risk fover short w/ logical stop - 96.50 need hold

(Feb 17-15:18) mike: could go for 1102.50-1104.00 if 98 exceeded/ not reversed fast. a break of 96.50 needed to turn down

(Feb 17-15:23) mike: not held again. 96.50 must

(Feb 17-15:47) mike: be short something near 98 or so, a decent drop likely w/i next 7 trading hours

(Feb 17-16:02) mike: have a great rest of the day. overnight, 1102.50-1104.00 zone a sell. 1096.50-1096.00 a buy

Tuesday- February 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 16-09:09) mike: key supp early at 1080-1079
(Feb 16-09:15) mike: 1085.50-1086.25 a short early/ tight stop

(Feb 16-09:37) mike: Just after 9am the ES reached and reversed from the 1085.50-1086.25 zone and the NQ reversed its 1792.25-1793.50 zone. Those must be cleared/ held to keep the upside from reversing.The 1080-1079 area on the ES is a key support now.

(Feb 16-09:50) mike: 82 resist
(Feb 16-09:53) mike: 79.50 filled gap on daily chart, must hold now

(Feb 16-10:09) mike: 123 top on Dow cash, highs should be in
(Feb 16-10:13) mike: no damage done as long as 79.50 holds now. choppy scalp mkt right now

(Feb 16-10:19) mike: The ES dropped to 1079.50 to fill the gap and then held that level to make a double bottom. As long as that level holds, no damage is done and the pullbacks are buying opportunities. Just beware that the 1086.00-1086.50 area should be a key resistance area to push through and not quickly reverse.

(Feb 16-10:40) mike: if long, tighten stops. 84.50 needs to hold to keep this going

(Feb 16-10:51) mike: pop over 86.50 not held . 83 needs t hold on dip
(Feb 16-10:57) mike: a bounce here should not take out the highs, sell into this

(Feb 16-11:03) mike: 85 shouldn't be exceeded if rolling over,

(Feb 16-11:18) mike: The ES popped to 1087.00, staying over 1086.50 for about 2 seconds, and reversed to pullback to 1083.25 so far which is now support. The 1083 level will need to hold to avoid a reversal of the uptrends.

(Feb 16-11:32) mike: mkt acting well since dbl bottom.. 83 now a good support that needs to be defended. 20ema on 5 min chart. 88 resist, then 1090.50-1091.25

(Feb 16-11:42) mike: stay with long side, if 88 is exceeded we can go for 90-91
(Feb 16-11:43) mike: 86 should hold to keep trend up in gear

(Feb 16-11:56) mike: need to hold 87.50 area here, else 85 area possible

(Feb 16-12:20) mike: the pattern is turning into rising wedge . if 87 is not held, it could start a break dn

(Feb 16-13:01) mike: that needs to be a low
(Feb 16-13:04) mike: 1086.75 also = 20ema on 5 min chart... NQ getting toppy just under 1800. both need to turn back up here soon, else dive lower

(Feb 16-13:17) mike: no roll over. not real eager to be buying up here, but the mkt is ok over 1086,50-1086.00 prior resist zone

(Feb 16-13:23) mike: The market is holding together very well so far, but the upside has stalled out a bit. As long as the 1086.50-1086.00 old resistance now support is held the market will be in good shape and the 1090.50-1091.25 area could be seen. If that support is broken, then 1083 area is key support.

(Feb 16-13:37) mike: another pop to 89 is a scalp short. 86 needs to hold or 83 area gets a test

(Feb 16-13:57) mike: ES is ok unless 86 breaks. 88.50 reached, but mkt still has a good bid at this momemt

(Feb 16-14:14) mike: watch 85 area on 1 more drop, that should hold if just a pullback. all the dips bought so far so 85 should hold or 83 key area can be tested

(Feb 16-14:31) mike: now 87 is key, and 10210 on Dow cash. bids dried up at 89, must be cleared to get to 91.50

(Feb 16-14:51) mike: definitely a choppy scalpers mkt since first test of 89 before noon. 87 is the comfort level for longs. needs to hold to leave the door open for a high with 20 minutes left in stock trading

(Feb 16-14:57) mike: should see 1090.50-1091.25 area tested
(Feb 16-14:58) mike: 87 still the floor tht should / must hold on a drop

(Feb 16-15:00) mike: 1090.50-1091.25 looks like a scalp short if reached soon
(Feb 16-15:03) mike: NQ topped at 1799.0 early, at 1798.75-1800.50 resist. it should still be important resist there today

(Feb 16-15:27) mike: 1090.50-1091.25 reached, 89 now must hold, a high at 3:35-3:40 timeframe possible

(Feb 16-15:32) mike: The 1090.50-1091.25 zone was exceeded as the trend up continues. The 1089 level now must hold. A high in the 3:35-3:40 timeframe is possible, or near 1093.50-1094.25.

(Feb 16-15:43) mike: 94 a short, mkt now very overbought. a drop to 90-88.50 tomorrow is likely
(Feb 16-15:47) mike: 92.50 supp, pivotal area now
(Feb 16-15:51) mike: parabolic move too,
(Feb 16-15:52) mike: 92.50 to cover part
(Feb 16-15:54) mike: 92.50 should be pivotal , in the morning too if not broken
(Feb 16-15:55) mike: have a good rest of the day

Friday- February 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 12-09:14) mike: back to 72-73 resist

(Feb 12-09:24) mike: 67.50 resist
(Feb 12-09:28) mike: 1068.50-1068.00 old supp is resist 1 now

(Feb 12-09:44) mike: 1061.50-1060.50 reversed, but 63.50-64.00 resist

(Feb 12-10:05) mike: 65.50-56.00 needs to be cleared/ hold to get out of trouble

(Feb 12-10:14) mike: 63.50 needs to hold to keep bounce from failing

(Feb 12-10:22) mike: 63.50 held but high i n
(Feb 12-10:23) mike: 68.00-68.50 good resist in case they dont break dn here

(Feb 12-10:27) mike: The big down open quickly reversed the 1060.50 support and must stay over 1063.50 now to avoid trouble. Resistance at 1068.00-1068.50 should be key this morning.

(Feb 12-10:34) mike: if long get out , cover at least part, 63.50 the key supp now but a failure under 68
(Feb 12-10:36) mike: weak if cant clear 66.50 here

(Feb 12-10:43) mike: broke a wedge pattern, sell 65-66 area if reached and stall/ reverse

(Feb 12-10:53) mike: must reverse lower now real fast - or nullified
(Feb 12-10:54) mike: 65.50 shouldn't be exceeded. a scalpers mkt this morn

(Feb 12-11:00) mike: The ES popped up to 1067.25 and reversed, and the drop to 1062.25 held and reversed a bit. Now the 1066 level needs to be cleared to avoid a test of the low.

(Feb 12-11:05) mike: 62.50 turning into good supp
(Feb 12-11:05) mike: 10,000 dow cash

(Feb 12-11:09) mike: bounces should still fail, but no further damage done as long as 62.50 holds. if the lows are broken, the charts will break a bottom on 13 min chart, a real bearish pattern then if not reversed fast

(Feb 12-11:15) mike: this could carry on towards 68
(Feb 12-11:18) mike: must stay over 65 and go soon if going to reach 68, else another failure
(Feb 12-11:21) mike: 68.00-68.50 is a good cluster of resist, key when reached

(Feb 12-11:29) mike: After turning up, the ES stayed over 1065.00 and has pushed higher to just under the 1068.00-1068.50 zone so far. Still, as long as a pullback holds 1065 on the ES the trends area up. If 1068 is taken out, the 1071.50-1072.50 area is key again. If 1065 breaks, then the 1062 area is key support now.

(Feb 12-11:34) mike: good rejection, 65 met but backing off long side
(Feb 12-11:36) mike: a bounce from here to 67-ish that then stalls/ reverses sets up good reward/ risk short

(Feb 12-11:42) mike: a better looking channel/ wedge pattern. the 1064.50 level would need to break

(Feb 12-11:58) mike: stuck between s and r but NQ going strong right now, dips are buys
(Feb 12-11:59) mike: 65 is the bottom of the channel, needs to hold like last 2 dips

(Feb 12-12:10) mike: one more pop towards 71.0-72.50 a possible reversal area
(Feb 12-12:10) mike: 68.50-68.00 needs to hold now

(Feb 12-12:21) mike: 75.50-76.00 resist

(Feb 12-12:29) mike: 72.50 needs to hold or top in

(Feb 12-12:47) mike: trend up since that pullback low at 65. ok over 71.50, but a pop that tests/ rejects 75.50-76.00 area is a short. the 69.50-68.50 area strong supp

(Feb 12-12:58) mike: 68.50 area must be defended.

(Feb 12-13:10) mike: The breakout over 1068 sent shorts scampering for cover and ran up to 1075.00 before reversing. This pullback needs to hold the 1068.50-1068.00 area, otherwise the choppy trend up move could reverse and end the week on a down note.

(Feb 12-13:12) mike: if going higher, we need a reversal here above 70

(Feb 12-13:20) mike: 71.50-72.00 shouldn't be seen, could sell off to lower lows if 65 not held

(Feb 12-13:28) mike: 68.50 must be cleared, or trend down towards the lows. an ''inside day'' so far w/ 2-side action ss

(Feb 12-13:33) mike: 65 trying to hold, still tho 68 on ES and 1772 NQ both need to be exceeded / held
(Feb 12-13:36) mike: When 1071.50 was broken the ES dropped fast to the 1065 support area. That held, but 1068 must be cleared/ held or its still vulnerable.

(Feb 12-14:10) mike: 67.75 held after taking out 68 and is good supp that should hold, a test of 72 is a short in this 2 sided stuff
(Feb 12-14:14) mike: 71 should hold on dip

(Feb 12-14:22) mike: 77-78 should be tested/ exceeded - else inside day. 72.00 must hold now, or no go

(Feb 12-14:38) mike: 72.50-72.00 supp, again.

(Feb 12-14:55) mike: covering the buy off 72
(Feb 12-14:56) mike: supp at 72 then 68
(Feb 12-15:02) mike: horrible price patterns, buyers beware
(Feb 12-15:04) mike: if 68 is broken / held then 65 is key to hold, else back towards 60 or lower

(Feb 12-15:14) mike: and now 72 is important resist

(Feb 12-15:30) mike: not good action,
(Feb 12-15:31) mike: a break of 68 could put press on

(Feb 12-15:47) mike: 68 is a rock. surely most see it now as key. its 1771.50 on NQ. breaking those and not quickly reversing is bad news. unless tht occurs, no real damage done. enjoy a great long weekend .

Thursday- February 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 11-09:41) mike: must clear 65 and stick to reverse

(Feb 11-09:50) mike: 6150-62.00 resist

(Feb 11-10:09) mike: still must must clear 65 and stick to reverse

(Feb 11-10:22) mike: 62.50 needs to hold or thats a top for awhile

(Feb 11-10:28) mike: The early weakness was reversed 15 minutes into trading and the ES stayed over yesterday's low so that should be a good low for the morning anyhow. A test of the 1068.00-1068.50 area will be reversed if the market remains range bound.

(Feb 11-10:32) mike: that was a little 123 top 66 resist shouldn't be exceeded now

(Feb 11-10:45) mike: sell a pop that stalls under 66 resist.
(Feb 11-10:48) mike: scalp out if short, 62 is god supp
(Feb 11-10:50) mike: 2 sided scalp mkt, NQ doing well so far and it must stay strong , hold 1744-43
(Feb 11-10:52) mike: Bounces under 66 are sill scalp short, i second guessed myself

(Feb 11-11:06) mike: a 2 sided day, buy the drops , sell the pops . 65-66 resist, 61-60 on bottom

(Feb 11-11:17) mike: The ES reversed down from 1067.00, but the choppy drop to 1060.50 was also quickly reversed. For now it is a 2-sided day so buy the pullbacks to the 1061-1060 area and then beware of a reversal around 1068.00-1068.50 or lower. The NQ is leading and should be in good shape over the 1743-1741 area.

(Feb 11-11:28) mike: should pull back to 67.00-66.50 area
(Feb 11-11:29) mike: 68 is trend supp tht must hold
(Feb 11-11:31) mike: can't stay over 70

(Feb 11-11:38) mike: stalling ut, 68 needs to hld
(Feb 11-11:40) mike: 1760 NQ NEEDS TO HOLD ALSO. sorry re caps.
(Feb 11-11:41) mike: cant hold 70 is bothersome long here, but ok over 68

(Feb 11-11:48) mike: The ES took out 1067 on the way to the 1072.75 so far. The 1077.00-1078.00 is the next good resistance, and then 1082 if this is really strong. Pullback should hold 1068 to stay in bullish mode, otherwise we have a reversal again.

(Feb 11-11:50) mike: 1 min chart w/ 9 and 18 ema, a good example of trend guide in a momentum move
(Feb 11-11:51) mike: 72.50 needs to hold here now

(Feb 11-12:00) mike: 73 needs to hold , or look for 70.50 area

(Feb 11-12:11) mike: 73 now like 68 was earlier. its a key spot

(Feb 11-12:54) mike: all week gains been reversed, but not today if 72.50-71.50 holds

(Feb 11-13:02) mike: if 72.50 breaks, sell the next bounce

(Feb 11-13:15) mike: The ES popped to 1075.50 and has flattened out. Lately the rallies have reversed, but not today unless the 1072.50-1071.50 area is broken. If it is, then the 1068.50-1068.00 area could be tested and that would be key support to hold.

(Feb 11-13:29) mike: 77-78 a good resist. , dip should hold 75 area. 72 now very key supp

(Feb 11-13:41) mike: nice rejection at 77-78, now need to avoid break of 75
(Feb 11-13:43) mike: a 123 type of top possible now

(Feb 11-13:50) mike: The ES reversed from the 1077-1078 resistance zone. That could be as far as this goes today. If the 1072 level is broken, then that will be a top and any bounce is then a shorting opportunity.

(Feb 11-14:23) mike: this is bullish now unless 77-78 rejected again, but right now this mkt will be ok unless 73.50 is touched and not quickly reversed.

(Feb 11-14:26) mike: stay over 74.5 now to keep trend up move intact, or reverse back up fast if broken . if not, reversal can occur

(Feb 11-14:34) mike: 78 rejected again, watch NQ, it needs to stay over 1775-74 or it would then start to roll over from small parabolic move.
(Feb 11-14:39) mike: short under the 78 level, stop just over
(Feb 11-14:42) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart on a trend day usually good supp / guide . it breaks at 75.25

(Feb 11-14:49) mike: The 1078 level was rejected a second time and the ES pulled back to the 20ema on the 5 minute chart at 1075.25 currently. That has been a trend guide, so grind higher should continue unless that is broken.

(Feb 11-14:51) mike: shorting under 78 , nq weakening
(Feb 11-14:53) mike: nq weak under 1777, has supp 74-72.50
(Feb 11-14:54) mike: 77 sholdn't be seen now

(Feb 11-15:02) mike: the washout had no follow thru yet. if a drop to 73.00-72.50, it *should* reverse, a scalp long if reached and reversed

(Feb 11-15:29) mike: the Dow chart is toppy too , if they reverse 77-78 again, bad news
(Feb 11-15:31) mike: NQ ugly pattern, all bounces short there under 1777

(Feb 11-15:40) mike: if u sold the bouncescalp out of 2/3 dn here
(Feb 11-15:44) mike: trading range here for 2+hours, the low end 73.75-74.25, top 77-78
(Feb 11-15:48) mike: 73.00-72.50 key, avoid longs
(Feb 11-15:51) mike: 75.50 should be it if closing poor

 Wednesday- February 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 10-10:00) mike: just sell bounces under 68

(Feb 10-10:10) mike: 62.50-63.00 resist, then 65 is key. 58 should break

(Feb 10-10:15) mike: take some profit on shorts at 57.75. resist 62-63
(Feb 10-10:17) mike: 64.50-65.00 strong resist now
(Feb 10-10:18) mike: 1053.00-1052.50 next key supp

(Feb 10-10:26) mike: NQ weak and leading ES
(Feb 10-10:29) mike: 1053.00-1052.50 must be reversed with gusto, or else trend down.

(Feb 10-10:35) mike: The lower open was bought and the ES popped up 5+ points and promptly rolled over. The ES would need to get over 1061 and hold in order to avoid a trend down day. The 1053.00-1052.50 needs to hold, otherwise it could be an ugly day.

(Feb 10-10:48) mike: 64.00-64.50 is a cluster of 4 resist methods and should be pivotal . the mkt is bearish unless that is cleared / held for now

(Feb 10-10:56) mike: must get over 61 and hold, not reject it. dow 10,000 kind of pivotal too

(Feb 10-11:18) mike: kind of a wedge pattern, 60.50 needs to hold
(Feb 10-11:22) mike: 61 should be bounce high here
(Feb 10-11:23) mike: if pattern playing out right
(Feb 10-11:25) mike: nullified the pattern. ES is in rally mode over 61
(Feb 10-11:29) mike: 64.50 area should be strong / pivotal resist
(Feb 10-11:34) mike: that could be it for the bounce, 65 now key
(Feb 10-11:36) mike: a pullback should hold 62-61 area .

(Feb 10-11:47) mike: The ES made it to 1065.00 which is pivotal resistance and backed off. A low may be in place, but the 1062.00-1061.50 area needs to hold to avoid another failed rally.

(Feb 10-12:25) mike: strong rebound, 61 supp key now but shouldn't be seen

(Feb 10-12:28) mike: The ES dropped to 1061.25 support and reversed back up and the 1065.00 key area and finally broke out. The 1065.00-1064.50 area needs to hold now, but still no harm done unless 1061 is not held.

(Feb 10-12:35) mike: 66.60-66.00 must hold now
(Feb 10-12:39) mike: 66 held but bounce here should fail
(Feb 10-12:41) mike: 64.50 looks to be next supp on a break down here

(Feb 10-12:50) mike: mkt not able to hold lately, here again it looks
(Feb 10-12:52) mike: need to stay over 66 still, to avoid the roll over

(Feb 10-13:04) mike: 66 has held, but no goo bounce yet. careful long up here for sure

(Feb 10-13:12) mike: kind of a bigger wedge type pattern, but it only breaks if 66 isn't held so buy dip over 66

(Feb 10-13:17) mike: tricky, a test of 67 tht reverses, scalp long but could unwind if 66 breaks

(Feb 10-13:28) mike: The ES held 1066.00 and is going for the 1071.50-1072.50 zone which should be reversed or else 1077 is a magnet.

(Feb 10-13:33) mike: 71.50 rejected, that area is a short with a stop just over the top of zone. 69.00-68.50 s1, 67.50 s2

(Feb 10-13:42) mike: a test is a good short
(Feb 10-13:43) mike: test of the high, a lower high that reverses is great short set up

(Feb 10-13:49) mike: The ES reached the 1071.50-1072.50 zone and it was rejected.That would need to be broken and held on a pullback to avoid a late day selloff. The 1066 area is support that must hold to avoid a break down.

(Feb 10-13:53) mike: 1068 is now a break down level. if this big wedge is valid, then 1066-65 is the pivotal area that has to hold to avoid a big reversal .
(Feb 10-13:57) mike: feb puts pretty cheap. they paid well from up near 72 yesterday
(Feb 10-14:00) mike: a bounce to 70.50 that stalls/ reverses is a short.

(Feb 10-14:09) mike: 70.50 shouldn't be exceeded now, or pattern nullified and 71.50 gets another try
(Feb 10-14:11) mike: scale out, part 1 68.00 or better
(Feb 10-14:13) mike: stop breakeven or 69.50 at worst, 66.50 tgt 2

(Feb 10-14:16) mike: they missed 70.50 by 1 tik, if not short wait or a bounce or possible long of 66.50-66.00 reverses
(Feb 10-14:20) mike: mkt so far did well, normally that starts a decent drop. 69.50 not exceeded yet, but its be flat now and scalp or wait for a decent setup

(Feb 10-14:28) mike: the drops met with buying, then sold just as fast, not going to nose dive - mkt ok unless 66.50-66.00 breaks
(Feb 10-14:32) mike: 69.50 now a key rest
(Feb 10-14:34) mike: 66.50 tested, but still sell a pop under 69.50

(Feb 10-14:43) mike: The 1066 area was tested, but the market is still vulnerable given the rejection of the 1071.50-1072.50 zone. A bounce that fails around the 1069 area and then reverses sets up a good short with a tight stop.

(Feb 10-14:49) mike: make or break here 65.50-65.00 -- 1749-47 NQ. ES needs to get over 67 n stick

(Feb 10-15:24) mike: yesterday open was 66.50, settled at 66.25, open this morning at 65.75...... looks like a key spot for today's close, a pivotal zone

(Feb 10-15:36) mike: 66.00-66.50 now key resist, and a short

(Feb 10-15:52) mike: resist / pretty key it looks, rejected . a close under 66 a bearish sign

(Feb 10-15:57) mike: this settlement will be interesting. have a great rest of the day.

Tuesday - February 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 09-09:50) mike: 1068.00-1068.50 reversed on open, 62.50 area is support

(Feb 09-09:59) mike: sell pops under 67
(Feb 09-10:04) mike: 63.00-62.50 supp, needs to hold .

(Feb 09-10:13) mike: The ES opened up 10+ points, reversed from the 1068.00-1068.50 zone and dropped to 1063.25 before bouncing. The market will be in uptrends unless the 1063.00-1062.00 area is broken and not quickly reversed. If the 1068.50 area is cleared and held then the 1073.50-1074.00 zone would be a key area for a possible reversal.

(Feb 09-10:46) mike: they topped
(Feb 09-10:50) mike: if 63.00-62.50 can not hold, its back to poor action and bounces are shorts
(Feb 09-10:52) mike: 66.00 resist now

(Feb 09-11:00) mike: NQ leading this, 65.50-66.00 good resist now
(Feb 09-11:07) mike: 56 should be tested
(Feb 09-11:08) mike: 62.50-63.00 now key resist

(Feb 09-11:22) mike: The ES popped up to 1069.75 and quickly reversed, then when 1066 was broken the downside picked up steam and fell to 1058.00 so far. That 1062.50-1063.00 area is pivotal and the pressure will be on the downside unless its cleared and held.

(Feb 09-11:35) mike: obviously good supp 58 . buy a pullback towardds 62 that reverses back up. a 2 sided day, thus quick trades necessary

(Feb 09-11:44) mike: 65 should hold, else reversal again.

(Feb 09-12:06) mike: A double bottom at 1058 was met with strong buying. The 1073.50-1074.00 area should be hard to break and hold, but for now pullbacks are buying opportunities as long as 1066.00-1065.50 holds.

(Feb 09-12:14) mike: 18 ema on 1 min chart is trend supp, at 72 now

(Feb 09-12:22) mike: 72.50 needs to hold on a pullback here
(Feb 09-12:27) mike: small supp at 74

(Feb 09-12:54) mike: 74 good resist now, also 65 must hold to avoid another quick drop

(Feb 09-13:06) mike: The ES sprinted up to 1077.00 then dropped to 1066.25 very fast. That 1074 level is resistance that must be cleared to avoid more trouble towards 1065.00, which is now a key support.

(Feb 09-13:52) mike: i will be away for 30 min or so, a dip that reverses from 1066-1065 a buying opportunity. a reversal at 74 a short

(Feb 09-14:37) mike: as long as 67.50-66.50 is held, the mkt will be ok. if broken, e can see 58 retested

(Feb 09-14:58) mike: quick reversal from 66.25, that needs to hold to stay strong, or a drop into close occurs

(Feb 09-15:07) mike: The ES pulled back to the 1066.25 level and turned up. That must hold to avoid a poor close. The 1071.25-1072.50 area must be cleared and not reversed to get out of trouble now.

(Feb 09-15:42) mike: resist was rejected, thats key early in morning / overnight trading. its a good spot to short

Monday - February 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 08-09:37) mike: 1737.00-1736.00 on NQ reversed, early key supp now

(Feb 08-09:45) mike: under 1063.75-1064.25 the mkt a short

(Feb 08-09:51) mike: 1056.25-1055.50 must hold here or 51 area next

(Feb 08-10:07) mike: The ES was sold on the open, after dropping from the 1063.75-1064.25 resistance pre-open for stocks and fell to the 1056.25-1055.50 support. That range needs a clean break for a chance for a directional move.

(Feb 08-10:19) mike: ES needs to stay over 62

(Feb 08-10:23) mike: from resist to support back up to resist, now its the 1060.50 area must hold or bac to lows

(Feb 08-10:32) mike: 123 top , key resist must be cleared soon here , or back down they go

(Feb 08-10:43) mike: that 60.50 area needs too break too turn this down still , scalp mkt right now
(Feb 08-10:44) mike: its a scalpers mkt right now.

(Feb 08-10:54) mike: 1066.50 next resist, 63.00-62.50 supp , the mkt is not damaged as long as 60.50 isn't brken.

(Feb 08-11:04) mike: if this can hold together, take out 66.50 and hold, a target for top at 1075 area on this leg up

(Feb 08-11:07) mike: however, 1069.50-1070.25 should be hard to get
thru - a reversal near there sets up a decent short.

(Feb 08-11:13) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18 ema for trend guide on these moves

(Feb 08-11:19) mike: The ES took out the 1063.75-1064.25 zone and ran to 1068.50 so far. The 1064.00-1063.50 area should hold or that could be a short term top. IF the 1069.50-1070.25 area is exceeded then a test of the 1074-1076 area would set up a good shorting opportunity.

(Feb 08-11:29) mike: 123 top pattern 67.50 must be cleared to avoid drop

(Feb 08-11:38) mike: this should be important here, and 10,000 dow cash
(Feb 08-11:39) mike: 1747 NQ also pivotal

(Feb 08-11:58) mike: 68.00-68.50 rejected twice, NQ came off its hgh pretty fast, should be tops

(Feb 08-12:19) mike: The ES made a 123 top from the 1068.00 level and then pulled back to the 1064.00-1063.50 support. A bounce from there that fails under that 1068.00-1068.50 zone is a shorting opportunity.

(Feb 08-12:41) mike: this is it
(Feb 08-12:44) mike: those highs at 67 on ES need to be exceeded / held to avoid pullback now

(Feb 08-12:52) mike: still have important supp at 64.00-63.50 if you sold short , scalp out of part, lower stop

(Feb 08-13:07) mike: lower stop on any shorts to 65.75, shouldnt be exceeded. if breaking down. the 62.50 next target under this support

(Feb 08-13:11) mike: 65.00-65.25 new resist. 62.50-62.00 must hold, or 58 in cards

(Feb 08-13:18) mike: 62.50-63.00 trend resist

(Feb 08-13:25) mike: 62.25 is a weak bounce.

(Feb 08-13:30) mike: 62.50-63.00 should be it for the bounce, otherwise 64.50 area possile

(Feb 08-13:41) mike: The ES popped up to 1067.00 and reversed and the break of 1064 brought in more selling back to 1060.25 so far. A bounce would need to clear 1062.50-1063.00 and hold on a pullback to reverse the downtrend.

(Feb 08-13:48) mike: 58.50-57.50 supp, then 56.00-55.50 huge
(Feb 08-13:49) mike: 62.50 should not be exeeded now or trend changes.

(Feb 08-14:00) mike: an up - dn - up pattern towards 64.50 area possible

(Feb 08-14:18) mike: up-dn-up to 63.75 . it is a high if this is going to drop into test lows
(Feb 08-14:21) mike: 61.50 needs to break for the pattern to roll over

(Feb 08-14:37) mike: back to test the lows, 58.50-58.00 needs to hold, or 56.00-55.50 or lower

(Feb 08-14:53) mike: dbl bottom, but still need a push over 62.50 to erease downside momntum

(Feb 08-14:59) mike: The ES made a double bottom at 1059.50 and unless 1062.50 is broken and held the trends are still down. Support at 1056.00-1055.50 needs to hold to avoid more trouble to the downside.

(Feb 08-15:05) mike: they reversed fast from the 58.50-58.00 area. mkt acts poor, 1056.25-1055.50 has to hold today, or 1051 area is next support.
(Feb 08-15:07) mike: 62.50-63.000 still key resist

(Feb 08-15:27) mike: if still short, cover dn 56.50-55.50, or stop no worse than 58.50 59.00 on a stop
(Feb 08-15:30) mike: 59.50-60.00 is new resist here

(Feb 08-15:41) mike: if short from 59.50-60.00 cover at 58.00
(Feb 08-15:44) mike: have a nice rest of the day. avoid longs , horrrible action

(Feb 8-15:57) mike: 51 must hold here at the close, or its not good for tomorrow

(Feb 8-16:01) mike: 52.50-52.00, then 1048.00-1047.50 major overnight support - the only good spots in front of testing 1040 again. can buy there for a bounce

(Feb 8-16:01) mike: good day.

Friday - February 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 05-09:06) mike: 1063.75-1064.25 rejected pre open, key resisy this morning
(Feb 05-09:10) mike: 57 looks pivotal

(Feb 05-09:53) mike: The ES popped to 1064.00 resistance and fell 8.50 points to 1055.50 before bouncing back. The market will be under pressure unless 1064 is broken and held.

(Feb 05-10:06) mike: the ES needs to get over 1057 and then hold, otherwise the trend dn continues. 1052 needs to hold or 1043 on sp500 cash is possible on this leg down
(Feb 05-10:09) mike: 1052.25-1051.50 must hold

(Feb 05-10:31) mike: The ES dropped down to the 1052.25-1051.50 support zone and bounced nicely so far. That could be a low as long as a pullback stays over 1056.50. The 10063.50-1064.00 zone is still a key resistance to break / hold.

(Feb 05-10:52) mike: the need to stay over 59 or a deeper drop towards 56 could happen.

(Feb 05-11:01) mike: 56.75-56.00 supp must hold, or to the lows

(Feb 05-11:12) mike: 56.75 held but not impressive bounce, 5975 resist needs exceeded n not revvcersed
(Feb 05-11:13) mike: not reversed

(Feb 05-11:35) mike: 1059.75 is good resist. the action is bearish. the oversold bounnce on hold for a day or so. sell bounces that fail under 1059.75 for now

(Feb 05-11:38) mike: The move up stalled after touching 1063.00 and the ES and Dow are near the lows now. It is still the 1063.50-1064.00 area that is major resistance, but 1057.50 shouldn't be exceeded to continue lower.

(Feb 05-11:59) mike: 56.75-57.50 resist.

(Feb 05-12:19) mike: the mkt trying to find a bottom down here, but trend down day unless 1056.75-1057.50 exceeded, then held on a pullback.

(Feb 05-12:22) mike: 56.75 rejected. its even more important to break/ hold now.
(Feb 05-12:24) mike: The 1056.75-1057.50 area was tested, but it must be cleared and then held on a pullback to put a dent in the downside momentum.

(Feb 05-12:34) mike: a wedge forming too. need stay over 54 to avoid a break
(Feb 05-12:39) mike: a bounce after wedge breaks will be sold under 56.00

(Feb 05-12:50) mike: must clear 1055 soon or roll over kind of hard
(Feb 05-12:51) mike: 50.75 test coming
(Feb 05-12:54) mike: 53.50-54.00 resist now

(Feb 05-13:03) mike: they rolled over fast from 54.25, but turned back up to 54.25. need to clear that and stick

(Feb 05-13:10) mike: like yesterday, high made in first 5 min of trading, a trend day, so low should occur w/ 5 min left in stock trading.

(Feb 05-13:28) mike: The 1056.75 level was a top and the the trend down move contines. The 1052.50-1053.00 area on the ES and 1729-1730 on the NQ need to be cleared and held to dent the downside momentum. A low could be made in the last 5 minutes of stock trading if those areas are not cleared.

(Feb 05-13:36) mike: 49.75-50.25 now a pivotal resist, 1042 on ES next
(Feb 05-13:39) mike: wow, now 47.75 trend resist
(Feb 05-13:43) mike: 1038 would be next if cant bounce here

(Feb 05-14:05) mike: 2pm low, 1044.50 low on SP500 cash, a major support. that area must be held.
(Feb 05-14:06) mike: 48 area is the first resist to clear / hold to get out of trouble

(Feb 05-14:21) mike: The SP500 Cash reached 1044.50 so far, and the 1044-1042 area is a major support area. That could be a low if the ES can break out over 1048 and then hold on a pullback. If not,a retest must hold to avoid a bad end to the week.


(Feb 05-14:31) mike: 48 rejected. watch 1044 for a possible higher low. 48 key resist now still
(Feb 05-14:36) mike: IF 48 is taken out, look for selling near 52-53. test of low still in cards iff not exceeded
(Feb 05-14:41) mike: another wedge pattern into 48 resist. if 45 breaks, then test of lows more liely here

(Feb 05-14:52) mike: ES is ok if 47 can hold
(Feb 05-14:54) mike: 47 needs to hold , or its a fake out

(Feb 05-15:00) mike: 52-53 target as long as 47 holds

(Feb 05-15:10) mike: blew right thru the target, now 58.00-58.50 is a good resist, 51-50 needs/ should hold on a pullback

(Feb 05-15:17) mike: the 1055 is now a trend support, if brken then 1051-1050 should/ must hold or we dont bottom until monday

(Feb 05-15:30) mike: watch 56-50, if broken then could roll over, it must hold

(Feb 05-15:41) mike: 63.50-64.00 still the big hurdle, if long mmight seek cover

(Feb 05-15:45) mike: if thats pushed thru, 68.50-69.00 possile but a long shot. quite a day/ week. enjoy the weekend

Thursday - February 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 04-09:09) mike: 1084.50-1084.00 support needs to hold. thats major. the bounces will be sold though
(Feb 04-09:11) mike: 92 area is strong resist

(Feb 04-09:45) mike: 77.25-76.50 supp, avoid longs for now

(Feb 04-10:07) mike: must clear 79.50-80.25 area , not reverse, to get out of trouble
(Feb 04-10:08) mike: 77 key first

(Feb 04-10:13) mike: 1 min chart, 18 ema is trend resist on these momentum moves. 1075 now resist

(Feb 04-10:18) mike: 74 trend resist
(Feb 04-10:21) mike: turned at 73.75 must break to ease downside momentum

(Feb 04-10:36) mike: feeble bounce to 74 resist. if there is a pop tho, its a short

(Feb 04-10:42) mike: downside mo lessening. if 74 is exceeded , watch 79-80 fore revversal

(Feb 04-10:46) mike: if 74 not cleared soon, another push down coming

(Feb 04-10:57) mike: 74 now very important , trend day unless broken

(Feb 04-11:09) mike: 1070.50 should hold, look for a reversal back up from there to see if can turnaround

(Feb 04-11:15) mike: they tried once , 73.50-74.00 still key resist to break / hold

(Feb 04-11:23) mike: The 1073.50-1074.00 zone had been a lid on the upside, but the downside is losing momentum so keep shorts on a tight leash, as a hold under 1070 is needed to put more pressure back on.

(Feb 04-11:37) mike: stay short under 74
(Feb 04-11:39) mike: if 66.50 breaks, 1062 area next and maybe 1058-1057

(Feb 04-11:43) mike: 69.50-70.25 resist
(Feb 04-11:45) mike: if that area is exceeded then a low could be in
(Feb 04-11:48) mike: 69.25 rejected, the 69.50-70.25 now key
(Feb 04-11:51) mike: if heading lower, this should reverse here soon - otherwise a low in place.

(Feb 04-12:14) mike: 68 should hold, otherwise the 62 area still is possible. getting over that 70.25 and holding needed to turn a bit

(Feb 04-12:41) mike: we could only get a decent bounce if NQ can reverse back over 1746-1747 and ES over 1069.50-1070.25 and not reverse.

(Feb 04-12:51) mike: keep pressing the short side towards 62, now 1067.5801068.00 good resist

(Feb 04-13:05) mike: The ES broke under 1070 and stayed under 1070.25 since on the way to a 1064.75 low. That might be a low, however the ES must get back over 1070 and hold now to take some pressure off.

(Feb 04-13:38) mike: This looks like make or break in here
(Feb 04-13:40) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart = 1068.50 there too
(Feb 04-13:44) mike: 62 in thhe cards still

(Feb 04-13:52) mike: if they stay under 68 and then break the double bottom 1064.50 then 1062 should get a test. if no reversal, 1058-1057 is next. that 68.50 looks key now before Jobs numvers in the morning

(Feb 04-14:02) mike: The ES bounced to 1068.75 and reversed and the lows were all tested, but 1062 and possibly 1058-1057 id possible as long as the 1068.50-1070.25 zone is exceeded and held.

(Feb 04-14:03) mike: as long as the 1068.50-1070.25 zone is NOT exceeded and held

(Feb 4 - 14:21) mike: fast reversal, if not for weak NQ it could be a low. look to scalp long from 1064-1062 zone

(Feb 4 - 14:36) mike: The ES reversed from 1063.75 and bounced to 1069.00, which stopped the bleeding for now. Another drop to the 1064-1062 zone that then reverses back up would set up a nice trade from the long side. Otherwise, it looks like a low should be in place if the 1070.25 level is broken but if not another test of the lows is likely.

(Feb 04-14:58) mike: 66.50 would need to be reversed if another dip
(Feb 04-14:59) mike: its a short still under the 69.50-70.25 resist -
(Feb 04-15:01) mike: if / when 64-62 reached, they must reverses before thinking long
(Feb 04-15:04) mike: 66.50 logical supp, need to press under and not quickly reverse up here


(Feb 04-15:14) mike: not the perfect setup to buy, stay with shorting on bounces under 1069

(Feb 04-15:21) mike: 65.00-65.75 resist, it shouln't be exceeded now
(Feb 04-15:24) mike: 62.25 low, close, but feels like 1058-1057 area next supp if 64.50 not exceeded

(Feb 04-15:34) mike: bounce failed at 64.25, so pressure on unless thats broken and held

(Feb 04-15:55) mike: bid 58.25 to cover any day trade shorts.
(Feb 04-15:56) mike: low should be in last 5 minutes - gap day / trend day timeframe

(Feb 04-15:59) mike: 58 should be tested
(Feb 04-15:59) mike: have a nice day

Wednesday - February 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 03-09:53) mike: ISM Services top of the hour , 97.50 trend supp

(Feb 03-10:03) mike: 1099.50-1100.50 rejected, need to see NQ break 1774 to reversed hard

(Feb 03-10:17) mike: morning top in place, 94.00-93.50 supp must hold

(Feb 03-10:25) mike: cover 1/3 shorts at 94 or better,
(Feb 03-10:26) mike: 96.50 now good resist

(Feb 03-10:32) mike: 89.00-88.50 next target. 95.00-95.50 trend down resist

(Feb 03-10:40) mike: The lower open was reversed and the ES rallied to the 1099.50 resistance before fizzing out. It has been trend down since, and the 1091.50-1091.00 was reached. The 1088.50-1088.00 area could be seen before decent bounce, and the 1095.00-1095.50 area should offer resistance on a bounce.

(Feb 03-10:46) mike: 18ema 1 min chart is trend resist until broken

(Feb 03-10:54) mike: stall at 95 resist, but 93.50 supp must hold if going to rally back towards 96.50-97.00

(Feb 03-11:02) mike: 93.50 held, so has 95.00 needs to get over 95 and stick soon, or down they go

(Feb 03-11:19) mike: 96.50 almost reached. a pullback should hold 95.00-94.50 to continue higher, the NQ is leading the moves and has been acting well above 1774 -- the 1774-1772 area there looks like the key / pivotal zone to hold for the whole mkt together. it's not just a pullback if that breaks/ holds

(Feb 03-11:37) mike: The ES bounced to 1096.25 and stalled out, while the NQ was on its high for the day. The 1774-1772 zone must hold there, or it could turn all trends down and maybe a fast move. The bounces are not holding, so sell strength - especially a test of 1096 that fails.

(Feb 03-11:41) mike: 88.50-88.00 now tgt 2

(Feb 03-11:50) mike: 88.50 should be seen soon, staying under 93.50

(Feb 03-12:17) mike: lots off tradable moves, both sides reverse after a decent 4-6 point move loses momentum then stalls --- trends are sideways/ down until a higher high on 5 min chart that sticks

(Feb 03-12:30) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart has reversed last 2 bounces, get ovet it n hold to change trends

(Feb 03-12:59) mike: 94.50 is a cluster of 3 intraday resist numbers, and key resist now

(Feb 03-13:07) mike: 93.25 should hold now, 96.50-97.00 resist

(Feb 03-13:11) mike: 95.00-94.50 good supp now,

(Feb 03-13:22) mike: After dropping to a lower low at 1090.50 the ES turned back up and has stair-stepped its way higher back to 1097.25 so far. As long as the 1094.50-1094.00 area holds, the trends will be up. If broken, then the 1091-1090 area must be defended.

(Feb 03-13:37) mike: 94.50 was held and trends still up, need to avoid a dbl top here,

(Feb 03-13:51) mike: 123 in a 123 top there, 96.50 should not be exceeded now

(Feb 03-14:00) mike: if they pop up a bit to a lower high, then reverse, thats a short. a bit tricky w/ a sttrong NQ and weak ES

(Feb 03-14:23) mike: The ES dropped to 1093.50 and quickly reversed back up. The upside lost momentum, and 1095.50 is key resistance. A break of 1094 *that holds* is needed to cause longs to bail. damages the intraday pattern.

(Feb 03-14:26) mike: need to stay under 94 to keep press on
(Feb 03-14:27) mike: 92.00 minor supp

(Feb 03-14:34) mike: stay short under 94.50, pressure on under
(Feb 03-14:36) mike: 92.25 next supp / target

(Feb 03-14:41) mike: 92 was reversed, but need to get over 94.00-94.50 to
(Feb 03-14:41) mike: get press off
(Feb 03-14:43) mike: 88.50-88.00 next supp if 92 breaks here

(Feb 03-15:10) mike: 94 pivotal.

(Feb 03-15:18) mike: range to break, 92.50-92.00 the bottom and 96.50-97.00 on top - short better odds

(Feb 03-15:23) mike: The ES broke 1094 and pushed to 1092.00 and then turned up and tested the highs. That was reversed, and if 1092 is tested and not reversed, then a poor close would occur.

(Feb 03-15:51) mike: 94 will be pivotal on a close

(Feb 03-16:04) mike: a very volatile day, we caught most of the s/r areas, the high about 25 min into day, and others intraday. 96.50-97.00 reversal areas will be key tomorrow. enjoy the rest of your day.

Tuesday - February 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 02-10:02) mike: The ES popped up to the 1088.50-1089.00 zone and reversed, dropping from 1089.00 to 1084.75 (1084.50-1084.00 pivotal support) in 5 minutes and then turned back up. The bounce stalled and reversed from 1088.50 and then dropped to the 1084.75 support again. The NQ needs to get turned around, otherwise that's a bounce high.

(Feb 02-10:06) mike: they're staying over 1084. no damage done unless/ until broken.

(Feb 02-10:19) mike: 1092.25-1093.25 area is the next big hurdle on the way towards 1097-1098 zone. a pullback should hold 1088 now

(Feb 02-10:38) mike: The break and hold over 1089.00 started a run that took the ES to 1095.25 so far. A reversal from the 1097-1098 area is likely. There should be good support at the 1091.00-1090.50 area now.

(Feb 02-10:39) mike: 92.75 needs to be reversed to keep trend up

(Feb 02-10:46) mike: we're going to 90.50 if no reversal off 92.75 here. a 123 type top possible if it holds in here

(Feb 02-10:53) mike: need to hold 92.75 on ES, 10250 Dow cash, 1760 NQ

(Feb 02-11:09) mike: if 93.00 is't exceeded, then 88.50-88.50 needs to hold, else 84.50-84.00 again

(Feb 02-11:29) mike: The ES pulled back from 1095.75 but it held at 1091.00 as the market is holding together pretty well. As long as a pullback does not break the 1089.00-1088.50 area, the market will still be in decent shape and the 1097-1098 area is still possible. If that area is broken, then a top could be in place for the day at least.

(Feb 02-11:33) mike: acting a bit toppy, back in 45 minutes or so

(Feb 02-12:16) mike: 94.75 acting like 84.50 did yesterday. as long as 92 area, 20ema on 5 min chart, holds it can be pushed thru
(Feb 02-12:16) mike: 97-98 then the key area

(Feb 02-12:22) mike: 94.00 now must hold, should hold

(Feb 02-12:38) mike: the move should reverse up here 97-98.. 1103.50-1104.00 would be next if broken and not reversed. 1092.50 now a key trend supp on pullback. a break of that changes the trends/ patterns

(Feb 02-13:02) mike: that 97-98 is a shorting area w/ tight stop. its counter trend, need break of 95 to change trend, so dont fall in love with that yet

(Feb 02-13:08) mike: that could be all she wrote for the upside if 95.00-94.50 cant hold
(Feb 02-13:10) mike: more breaking down if NQ breaks 1764

(Feb 02-13:16) mike: 95.00-94.50 reversed, but reversal from good resist and loss of upside momentum right now careful with any logs , its sell zone w/ approperate stop

(Feb 02-13:18) mike: 97-98 is the zone that should top this off, if just an oversold rally is what i mean. we dont roll over tho unless 94.50 breaks

(Feb 02-13:24) mike: The ES made it to the 1097-1098 zone twice and pulled back,
however the trend doesn't change unless 1095.00-1094.50 is broken, then held on bounce.

(Feb 02-13:38) mike: 1103.50-1104.00 next upside resist, strong mkt over 1097 now, 97.00-96.75 needs to hold

(Feb 02-13:45) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18 ema. that 98 is 18ema, trend support that needs to hold, or else 97.00-96.50 a key area

(Feb 02-14:01) mike: as long as 98 holds, the strong trend up continues. if broken, the 97.00-96.75 area would need to hold or trends are breaking

(Feb 02-14:10) mike: sell a bounce to a lower high that reverses, this is too extended

(Feb 02-14:13) mike: this 97.00-96.75 needs to hold to get bounce, its also 20ema on 5 min chart, held all day so far

(Feb 02-14:25) mike: The ES pulled back to 1094.50 and turned up and made a new high at 1099.50. The market has been very strong, but will soon be due for a pullback. If that occurs, then a test of the 1095.00-1094.50 will need to quickly reverse then to avoid a sharper pullback. IF the market doesn't reverse on a test of the highs, then the 1103.50-1104.00 area could be seen on this leg up.

(Feb 02-14:40) mike: a lower high reversed, now 95.00-94.50 could be seen it looks- if so, a =reversal there, it should start a decent bounce

(Feb 02-14:45) mike: 94.50 is a target 1 on shorts

(Feb 02-14:50) mike: its not going to collapse, but 95.00-94.50 a key area.. if held/ reversed on a push lower, we stay in uptrends

(Feb 02-15:12) mike: a volatile choppy mkt, the way the mkt is acting, buy a dip that holds/reverses at 1098.50-1098.00 and turns up for a scalp long

(Feb 02-15:15) mike: that area should / must hold to keep upside intact. if we see 1103.50-1104.00 and stall out,hat could set up scalp short

(Feb 02-15:22) mike: 1100 needs to hold to keep the upside momentum

(Feb 02-15:35) mike: they pulled back to 98.85 and turned back up but out of longs at this juncture

(Feb 02-15:42) mike: 123 top to end the day, 1098 supp.
(Feb 02-15:42) mike: have a nice rest of the day

(Feb 02-15:45) mike: 97.75 target

(Feb 02-15:49) mike: we should have a decent pullback from the hihghs, shorting up there pretty good odds.
(Feb 02-15:49) mike: have a good day

Monday - February 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 01-09:37) mike: 1078.00-1078.50 key now
(Feb 01-09:37) mike: 75.25 supp, needs to be reversed

(Feb 01-09:47) mike: ISM Index at 10am. the 76.00-75.25 area is important support this morning now.

(Feb 01-10:06) mike: 76.00-75.25 area should break
(Feb 01-10:08) mike: if there is a bounce to 1080, and it stalls or is rejected, a short
(Feb 01-10:11) mike: scalp out. mkt ok over 76.50 it looks
(Feb 01-10:15) mike: the moves are too fast right now to give you much. right now, its a decent market as long as 76.50-76.00 area holds. a 2 sided day in the works

(Feb 01-10:27) mike: The action is very fast this morning. The 1078.00-1078.50 area was reversed a few minutes after the open, but the 1076.00-1075.25 area held on the pullback. The 1076.50 level should hold on a pullback to avoid a reversal. If the ES reaches the 1084.00-1084.50 zone and doesn't reverse, like we have been seeing, then the 1081.50-1081.00 area would need to hold.

(Feb 01-10:29) mike: that could be top, 80.50 a key supp

(Feb 01-10:34) mike: they're ok over 81.00-80.50...
(Feb 01-10:36) mike: 1084.00-1084.50 here very key this morning.

(Feb 01-10:44) mike: 80.50 holding, but this pattern is bearish and the turn from just under 1084

(Feb 01-10:54) mike: trend rolled over, NQ god resist on bounces
(Feb 01-10:54) mike: 1751-1755

(Feb 01-11:02) mike: 80.50-81.00 resist on ES, 1747 NQ

(Feb 01-11:22) mike: Per last night's update, the 1074.50-1075.25 area was broken and held, taking the pressure off of the downside. However, the rally towards the 1084.00-1084.50 resistance stopped just shy of that zone, fizzling out after touching 1083.50 then pulled back 5+ points to 1077.75. It has been a 2 sided day so look for buying opportunities when the pullbacks lose momentum and begin to turn up, and the opposite with the bounces.

(Feb 01-11:36) mike: 81.50 supp

(Feb 01-11:50) mike: if 84 a top, the 1081 level must break,

(Feb 01-12:04) mike: a bounce to a lower high that reverses sets up a good short, if we get a bounce... 2 rounded tops

(Feb 01-12:11) mike: must hold over 1081 to avoid trouble now

Feb 1 - 13:20 mike: 2 sided trend up day. 1081 needs to hold on pullback, else reversal

Feb 1 - 13:26 mike: After reversing from 1084.00 resistance, the pullback held and reversed from 1079.00 and turned back up. As long as a pullback holds at the 1081.00-1080.50 area the move should continue. Just beware of a break of hat area, as it would reverse the trend.

Feb 1 - 13:42 mike: resist zone only exceeded by 1 tick... if 82.50 isn't held, then a reversal could occur. 1 more push higher heere if held

Feb 1 - 13:58 mike: the 81.75-81.25 area must hold. still getting rejected at 84.00-84.50 resist

Feb 1 - 14:05 mike: 79.75 needs to hold now

(Feb 01-14:23) mike: The ES bounced to 1084.75, just a tick over the 1084.00-1084.50 area that has been good resistance all day, and now the drop just reversed back up from 1080.25. Although the market is holding together pretty well, the highs continue to be sold so any longs should be scalps as the market remains vulnerable.

(Feb 01-14:53) mike: its been a scalpers mkt today. a drop should hold over 82 area, a run up into last 5 minutes possible

(Feb 01-15:06) mike: 3 times 84.00-84.50 rejected. very important now
(Feb 01-15:08) mike: 79.00-78.50 supp / target if 83 not exceeded

(Feb 01-15:33) mike: 4th time to resist... if broken, a pop to 87.75-88.50 possible. if not broken soon, a drop should hold 82.50 to stay out of trouble end of day

(Feb 01-15:39) mike: 4 rejections at least... ES needs to stay over 82 to close well

(Feb 01-15:44) mike: an oversold bounce day, 2 sided action, pretty tricky action, happens a lot before big moves. have a good rest of the day.

Friday - January 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 29-09:26) mike: 88.50-89.00 rejected once already. thats key to breaking out higher

(Jan 29-09:59) mike: The big up open was sold and the ES dropped 5 points from 1087.50 to 1082.50 and then bounced back. The reversal at
1090.00 didn't gather steam, so the 1086 level needs to hold to avoid putting in a morning top. The 1092.50-1093.00 area should be very strong resistance.

(Jan 29-10:03) mike: 87 needs to hold , or down it goes
(Jan 29-10:06) mike: nq a short on a bounce, es trouble if 87 goes

(Jan 29-10:11) mike: 85.50-85.00 supp, should / must hold

(Jan 29-10:27) mike: 1092.50-1093.00 the resist here , then up towards 98. 88.25 supp,

(Jan 29-10:41) mike: 1092.50-1093.00 reversed, , need 90.50 to break now

(Jan 29-10:52) mike: The ES turned down from the 1092.50-1093.00 zone, and now a failure to clear that on a bounce will set up a 123 type top. The 1089.00-1088.50 area is support that must hold to avoid rolling over.

(Jan 29-11:06) mike: nq a good short on bounce to 1775-1777
(Jan 29-11:08) mike: the 1086 held 2 times so far its 60ema on 5 min. needs to hold. 1089 resist

(Jan 29-11:11) mike: A bounce from down here is still a very good short, 89.50-ish

(Jan 29-11:23) mike: 1086 now good resist, that 82 area again good supp, needs to hold or back down towards 78

(Jan 29-11:44) mike: this area was key all week, as bi support then pivotal. under 83 its still short term negative

(Jan 29-12:07) mike: just stay short under 84.50-85.00 area, ugly action. 1072 may be in the cards

(Jan 29-12:27) mike: dbl bottom possible just over supp, but need to get over 84.50 and not quickly reverse- right here

(Jan 29-12:35) mike: any new shorts down here would be scalps unless they put on pressure and give a momentum move. getting over 83 and holding 80 on a dip needed to avoid more trouble

(Jan 29-12:38) mike: i'll be away for a bit, if they happen to rally back towards 84.50-86.00 zone and fizzle/stall/reverse a tiny bit, then it will be a short

(Jan 29-13:20) mike: 84.50 rejected once. this must be exceeded / held, not reversed
(Jan 29-13:26) mike: another wedge pattern to, 82.00 must hold, or a new low tested
(Jan 29-13:32) mike: if you shorted up there, 81.75 to cover 1/3 and stop to 84.75
(Jan 29-13:33) mike: 80.25 target 2.
(Jan 29-13:42) mike: stop 83.50, if 78 touched, lower it to 82 or tighter
(Jan 29-13:43) mike: a new low is possible. stay with part shorts

(Jan 29-13:53) mike: 81.50-82.00 good resist, shouldnt be seen

(Jan 29-14:15) mike: 81.50-82.00 resist still, 78-77 was a solid supp 2 tims now, a break means 72 or lower THEN reverse

(Jan 29-14:28) mike: 72 coming now if 77 goes here

(Jan 29-14:33) mike: 79 now resist

(Jan 29-14:41) mike: 77-78 could turn into the old 82-81 area and be pivotal. must break / hold over 78 now

(Jan 29-14:48) mike: 72 now needs to stop the snow ball... or we go to 68-66 zone

(Jan 29-14:53) mike: supp at the 1073.50-1073.00 zone, but........ ugly - 68-66 area if not reversed here

(Jan 29-15:16) mike: cover daytrade shorts left 1068-1066 zone
(Jan 29-15:19) mike: 74.75-75.75 resist. time to be flat , have a great weekend
(Jan 29-15:23) mike: the early drop from 93.25 to 77.75 = 15.50 pts, from 84.50 minus 15.50 = 1069.00. close to the 68-66 arrea too. take care

(Jan 29-15:33) mike: that might be it, the 72-73 is resist now

(Jan 29-15:58) mike: enjoy your weekend. next week should be just as good for trading

Thursday - January 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 28-10:07) mike: The ES opened higher then reversed from 1 tick over the 1096.75-1097.50 resistance. The 1092.50 level needs to be exceeded and not reversed to avoid more trouble. Short the bounces until the market shows some strength.

(Jan 28-10:14) mike: 1085.25-1084.50 key supp. lock in some profits on shorts.
(Jan 28-10:14) mike: resist at 1089-1090

(Jan 28-10:19) mike: 1088 is trend down resist
(Jan 28-10:20) mike: 2 bounces of 3 points too, a 3rd = 1088.25

(Jan 28-10:26) mike: 88.25 nailed. thats now key, 1785 on NQ more important

(Jan 28-10:29) mike: 85.25 supp must hold, NQ dragging mkt down. need a move over 1089 to stick

(Jan 28-10:39) mike: The ES reached the 1085.25-1084.50 support zone, but this market still is weak so a move to the 1090.50-1091.00 area shouldn't be broken/ held. If it is, then the trends have changed and a low could be in place.

(Jan 28-10:49) mike: dont buy
(Jan 28-10:50) mike: 1082 area needs to hold,
(Jan 28-10:51) mike: the 20 and 60ema at 1088.75, thats the key resist now

(Jan 28-10:56) mike: The ES bounced to 1089.50, then rolled over again. This is a trend down day so far, and the 1090 level would need to be exceeded to change that.

(Jan 28-11:04) mike: stay with shorts
(Jan 28-11:05) mike: 78-77 next
(Jan 28-11:08) mike: 83.75-84.50 good resist now

(Jan 28-11:16) mike: a decent bid from down there, a low might be in, need to get thru 84.50 resist and hold now

(Jan 28-11:20) mike: if this is going to reverse, only a break/ hold over 84.50 needed. a reversal down here possible, but i avoid longs until proof of strength

(Jan 28-11:28) mike: The ES reached 1080.50 while the NQ reached 1767.00, breaking yesterday's low. It will now take a move over 1084.50 that then is held on a dip to turn the trends.


(Jan 28-11:30) mike: 1083 now resist

(Jan 28-11:35) mike: 1080 resist, 1072 supp, then 1068-1066 can be seen

(Jan 28-11:58) mike: key spots here. 1080-81, 1768-1770 nq

(Jan 28-12:14) mike: The 1081-1082 area on the ES and 1768-1770 area on the NQ must be exceeded and not quickly reversed to get anything going on the upside. Unless that happens, the trend down stays intact.

(Jan 28-12:55) mike: i think lows can be in , but must get over 80-81 and hold, not reject

(Jan 28-12:58) mike: sell em w/ tght stop
(Jan 28-12:59) mike: 78 supp
(Jan 28-13:01) mike: this is a quick out. 79 should hold on pullback.
(Jan 28-13:03) mike: 79.50-79.00 must hold now
(Jan 28-13:06) mike: i was early, 81-82 key resist here - 1768-1770 NQ

(Jan 28-13:12) mike: 1080.50-1080.00 needs to hold
(Jan 28-13:13) mike: 60ema = 82.00 also

(Jan 28-13:22) mike: mkt is ok as long as 8079.75 transition
(Jan 28-13:24) mike: mkt is ok as long as the 80.00-79.75 transition zone holds now - and 10100 onn dow cash

(Jan 28-13:30) mike: 1 min chart, 18 ema trend support

(Jan 28-13:43) mike: 1082 now key support, shouldnt be broken
(Jan 28-13:47) mike: 83.75 should hold, or it gets toppy looking
(Jan 28-13:50) mike: watch ES 2 min chart, 15 sma for trend support now, good guide so far
(Jan 28-13:55) mike: 85.25 old support, good resist it looks like, 83.75 must hold
(Jan 28-13:59) mike: short under 85.25 1773 NQ
(Jan 28-14:00) mike: 82 is cover part
(Jan 28-14:01) mike: a 123 type pattern possible

(Jan 28-14:13) mike: wedge broke, a bounce is a gift short
(Jan 28-14:15) mike: 81.75-83.00 area should be sold of reached

(Jan 28-14:32) mike: a pivotal area now, under 83 the bears in control, over 83 they rally a bit at least .

(Jan 28-14:39) mike: if 80 doesnt hold, then 76.50 possible

(Jan 28-14:46) mike: can be a buyer near 80 w/ tight stop. but still want to see better strength
(Jan 28-14:50) mike: 84.50 symmetry

(Jan 28-15:05) mike: 1083.00-1082.00 pivotal in last hour, the upside intact unless broken.

(Jan 28-15:12) mike: 1088.50-1089.50 resist. supp at 85.00-84.50 needs to hold

(Jan 28-15:16) mike: 82.50-82.00 needs to hold, or the move fizzled and bthe drop into late action

(Jan 28-15:27) mike: bernanke confirmation bounce, the 82.50 very important to hold in my work

(Jan 28-15:42) mike: 1088.50--1089.50 to sell in to
(Jan 28-15:43) mike: fast move, still applies
(Jan 28-15:46) mike: this channel pattern needs to stay over 85

(Jan 28-15:56) mike: 80.50-80.00 supp
(Jan 28-15:58) mike: bounce off 80.50 needs to get over 82.50, else not good pattern. another day with good volatility. have a great rest of the day.

Wednesday - January 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 27-09:14) mike: resist 86.00,
(Jan 27-09:16) mike: out at 84.75

(Jan 27-09:52) mike: 1091.00-1091.75 rejection

(Jan 27-09:59) mike: covering part at 86 or better
(Jan 27-10:01) mike: 86.50 or better
(Jan 27-10:01) mike: 1089 should not be exceeded
(Jan 27-10:02) mike: 82-81 target if keeps going, trail stop

(Jan 27-10:11) mike: 87.50 key resist now
(Jan 27-10:13) mike: 82-81 target, will keep lower stop on part
(Jan 27-10:16) mike: 85.50 now resist

(Jan 27-10:20) mike: 84.50-85.50 resist. target met, but might be more

(Jan 27-10:30) mike: The ES reversed from just under the 1091.00-1091.75 initial resistance and dropped to the 1081.00 support so far. The reversal from that area keeps the market from a bigger break down short term, however unless the initial resistance is broken and held, the market will be vulnerable.

(Jan 27-10:34) mike: poor action, needs to get over 87.50 to get out of trouble here

(Jan 27-10:49) mike: NQ needs to get over 1802 resist, or the mkt will stay under pressure
(Jan 27-10:51) mike: a big cluster of numbers there now. the 82-81 area held, but no gusto on the bounces so far

(Jan 27-11:00) mike: 86.50-86.00 needs to hold now

(Jan 27-11:15) mike: The ES made a little double bottom at the 1082-1081 key zone and bounced to 1088.50 before fizzling out. The 1082-1081 area needs to be reversed again, otherwise the downside can get momentum.

(Jan 27-11:21) mike: that 84 level was/ is key for getting out of this range. 1089.75-1090.50 now key resist to break/ hold

(Jan 27-11:48) mike: kind of a wedge, acting ok but the 84 level needs to hold or reverse right away. a pop to 1089 possible

(Jan 27-11:57) mike: The ES dropped to 1084.00 and reversed up but the 1087.50-1088.00 area has been a lid. A break/ hold of ether zone is needed to break the current range.

(Jan 27-12:13) mike: triangle broke, short a pop
(Jan 27-12:15) mike: should see 85.00-84.50
(Jan 27-12:16) mike: maye more, under 87 a short

(Jan 27-12:21) mike: The bounces still are not holding, and there are too many eager buyers at the 1082-1081 area. So, that could be taken out and push the ES towards 1077 area. The bounces are still shorts unless 1087.50-1088.00 is exceeded and held on a pullback.

(Jan 27-12:38) mike: should break on a 3rd test
(Jan 27-12:41) mike: when a wedge pattern breaks, there usually is a bounce back to the area of the breakdown. 1086 now key resist down here

(Jan 27-12:50) mike: taking out the low here i think
(Jan 27-12:50) mike: 84.50-85.25 resist

(Jan 27-13:05) mike: buyers beware. 84.00-84.50 resist must be cleared/ held

(Jan 27-13:12) mike: 84.50 rejected, 82.50 must break tho now soon - NQ more active, easier trade fyi

(Jan 27-13:17) mike: 1080 magnet i think
(Jan 27-13:18) mike: stop out the buyers from early, then reverse or just collapse

(Jan 27-13:40) mike: The last drop took the ES to 1081.75, and short covering pushed them back to the 1084.50 resistance area. The market has been plenty volatile, so after the Fed release expect the initial action to move in both directions, and then a choppy trend should appear if it turns into a non-event. Next update will be tonight.

(Jan 27-13:49) mike: fyi, if i can i will update here after fed release

(Jan 27-14:26) mike: 1077.50-1076.50 needs to hold on test of lows, else 1068-1066 . 1085 resist
(Jan 27-14:28) mike: 82-81 back to being kep support. THEN the 77 area if broken

(Jan 27-14:41) mike: 86-85 good support,

(Jan 27-14:46) mike: 89 needs to hold , else 1087.50 or lower tested

(Jan 27-14:54) mike: 87.50 should hold now to finish well ... tho a 123 top could set up

(Jan 27-15:06) mike: got the 123. 91.25 shouldnt be exceeded, 87.50 is ''must hold''
(Jan 27-15:09) mike: 1084.50 is next supp here

(Jan 27-15:30) mike: 1089 now pivotal. there is a good bid to the mkt, so buy dips over 84.50
(Jan 27-15:30) mike: over 1089. 84.50 key sup, wont see it

(Jan 27-15:39) mike: 92.50 now supp/ a pullback up here likely,

(Jan 27-15:46) mike: 93.50 trend supp into close
(Jan 27-15:46) mike: have a good rest of the day

Tuesday - January 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 26, 2010 10:13 mike: The lower open turned up from the 1087.00-1086.25 zone and closed the gap at 1091.75, and then sold off to 1086.50 to test the low. The reversal had some gusto, so that 1086.50 level must hold. A pullback should hold 1092.00-1091.50 to stay in uptrend.

Jan 26, 2010 10:22 mike: 93.50 trennd support, key area here

(Jan 26-10:30) mike: 95.50 reversed per last night update, supp at 92 must hold

(Jan 26-10:41) mike: to avoid turning bad they must rally from right here at 1092. even if they do, the move will be sold

(Jan 26-10:50) mike: that could be it, need to get over 95.50 and not reverse...

Jan 26-11:17) mike: The ES reversed after stalling near the 1095.50 level, and the pullback then reversed from 1 tick under the 1092.00-1091.50 area. A bit like yesterday, as the 1091.50 level needs to hold, or be quickly reversed, to avoid a break to the down side. A hold over 1095.50 is needed to get anything going on the upside.

(Jan 26-11:32) mike: 1094.50 needs to break, otherwise trends stay up - NQ holding this up

(Jan 26-11:42) mike: 95.50-95.00 support

(Jan 26-11:55) mike: 96.50 should / must hold now
(Jan 26-11:59) mike: sell a pop, a high in it looks


(Jan 26-12:10) mike: The ES took out 1095.50 and that held on a dip, but now the ES is close to the 1099.00-1099.50 zone. If that's exceeded we will have an outside day, and then the 1095.50 area is now a key support area that must be defended.

(Jan 26-12:18) mike: 123 top pattern
(Jan 26-12:19) mike: need to break 95.50 for confirmation

(Jan 26-12:26) mike: the NQ is really doing well this morning, but good resist 1821-ish. careful long up here, but nothing bad happens unless 1095.50 broken

(Jan 26-12:34) mike: NQ rejected 1821, thts a sell area tight stop

(Jan 26-12:38) mike: back off shorting,
(Jan 26-12:39) mike: 1101 is target on ES as long as 1098 is held

(Jan 26-12:53) mike: if 1098.50-1098.00 breaks, then things change but trend up until then

(Jan 26-13:14) mike: 98.50-98.00 held but the move running out of gas , 95.50 now must hold on a drop to avoid a top. watch for reversal around 1099.50-1100

(Jan 26-13:20) mike: 1098.25-1098.75 resist

(Jan 26-13:42) mike: 98.75 small rejection, but need to break 95.50 to roll over. a 123 type top posible if 98.75 exceeded

(Jan 26-14:00) mike: 1099 needs to hold now.
(Jan 26-14:05) mike: that should be a dbl / 123 top. a short w/ stop just over the highs, 1099.25 really shouldnt be exceeded

(Jan 26-14:13) mike: The ES rejected 1100 twice, so a double top could be in place. A reversal up from a test of 1095.50 is possible, but that must hold to avoid a trend change.

(Jan 26-14:27) mike: if short take some profit at 95.75-94.75 area , trail a stop

(Jan 26-14:32) mike: 95.50 pivotal here, 1097.50 shouldn't be exceeded if headed lower still

(Jan 26-14:39) mike: 96.75 is good resist now, 1815-16 NQ

(Jan 26-14:46) mike: The market rolled over and now the ES needs to break/ hold over 1096.75-1097.75 to avoid a poor close.

(Jan 26-15:04) mike: no move over 97.75 , must happen soon
(Jan 26-15:05) mike: or back to 95 or so

(Jan 26-15:12) mike: 92.50-92.00 possible

(Jan 26-15:25) mike: 92.00 reached, now 95.00-95.50 resist

(Jan 26-15:33) mike: 1089 , then 86 is very key

(Jan 26-15:40) mike: 92.50 shouldnt be exceeded

(Jan 26-15:47) mike: 89.75-90.50 now resist. if short from higher up, keeping part to 1082-1081 zone

(Jan 26-15:54) mike: 1092.00-1092.50 resist now, have a good rest of the day

Monday - January 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 25-09:15) mike: 1097 needs to hold the first pullback, or 1094-1093 better supp

(Jan 25-09:58) mike: 60ema = 1099.00 - pressure on under 99

(Jan 25-10:05) mike: stay short under 99, but look for reversal near 94-92 area
(Jan 25-10:07) mike: take partial profit on short at 93 or better
(Jan 25-10:08) mike: this area. 94 or better
(Jan 25-10:09) mike: NQ has been leading, 1802 there needs to hold

(Jan 25-10:18) mike: The early strength reversed from just over the 1097.50-1098.50 zone and dropped to 1091.75 so far. The 1096.50 is new resistance, and that 1099 area needs to be exceeded to avoid a retest of the Friday lows.

(Jan 25-10:37) mike: 94 need to hold, else lows tested / broken

(Jan 25-10:57) mike: triangle pattern in the making. 98.00-98.75 cleared and held to break out upside, 1092 on bottom

(Jan 25-11:06) mike: 1090.00-1089.00 on this, or further

(Jan 25-11:16) mike: 94.00-94.50 resist

(Jan 25-11:35) mike: The ES bounced back to 1097.25, but that didn't stick and new lows were made. It is trend down unless the 1095-1096 area is exceeded, then held on a pullback.

(Jan 25-11:49) mike: 92.50 has been pivotal today, it needs break / hold over to change

(Jan 25-12:07) mike: 1096 also = 60ema, a pullback likely

(Jan 25-12:15) mike: 96 tagged, rejected... 94.50-94.00 must break to roll over

(Jan 25-12:28) mike: over 1095.50 ES is ok, a grind higher to test high possible if that holds

(Jan 25-12:40) mike: dips can be bought, a hold of 1094.50 needed
(Jan 25-12:42) mike: The 1095-1096 zone was pushed through, and the trends are up as long as 1094.50 holds on a pullback.

(Jan 25-12:48) mike: 1099-1100 will be potential reversal area if grind higher / or pop up then reversed. otherwise 1104 area next / key

(Jan 25-12:50) mike: the 1096 needs to hold now it looks

(Jan 25-12:57) mike: if 96 breaks, then short a bounce that follows. that is key right now , 1802.5 on NQ
(Jan 25-13:00) mike: wedge pattern , dow rolling over
(Jan 25-13:03) mike: will see if 96 breaks before looking short.
(Jan 25-13:07) mike: any bounce a short, stop over 97.50
(Jan 25-13:10) mike: 34.25 supp
(Jan 25-13:16) mike: that 1096.50 area here should be it for a bounce if heading lower, 97.50 shouldn't break on this pop
(Jan 25-13:17) mike: scalp trade , so thin n slow here

(Jan 25-13:31) mike: the bounces aren't going to stick up here , but could still hold 1094

(Jan 25-13:40) mike: if 94.50 supp breaks, then small supp at 93.50, then the 1092 pivotal area.

(Jan 25-13:47) mike: The 1094.50 level held however the 1097.75 high was quickly reversed so beware of another reversal near the highs. A break of 1094.50 that is not quickly reversed would turn the trends back down.

(Jan 25-14:19) mike: NQ the stronger like the morning. it has support at 1805 now that needs to hold t