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The Nightly Updates are sent out Sunday Evening to Thursday Evening for the following  day's trading session. To view our Nightly Updates, click here.

 

This publication's primary focus is trading the index futures ($ES_F) and ($NQ_F). However, you can also use my nightly updates to trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID), (DIA), (VIXY), and (DOG)
 

 

Friday- February 03, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Feb 3, 2012 9:33:13 AM EST
mike: this should sell down to the 1332.50 area

Feb 3, 2012 9:37:54 AM EST
mike: 1333.25- 1332.25 area should be the first important support, and then 1329 .75 level

Feb 3, 2012 9:51:50 AM EST
mike: the 1333.25 was hold, should be selling at 35.50-36.50 but now 1333 sheets to hold

Feb 3, 2012 9:54:21 AM EST
mike: careful with long in this area

Feb 3, 2012 10:05:59 AM EST
mike: when the market has a large gap up open on a Friday, odds are not good for it to be filled on that day. ISM services data gave it a pop-up that was sold in to. still lots of time for the market to do what it wants. 1335 area should be first important support below us now than that 1333 .25-1332.50 area is very important to stay over this morning

Feb 3, 2012 10:18:37 AM EST
mike: as long as this doesn't break below the 1336 area and hold the market stays bullish. We should get a shakeout if that happens. Looks to be in good shape and could see 1342-1344 area if they can stay over 1337 .75 and pushover 1339 .50 and hold that

Feb 3, 2012 10:37:07 AM EST
mike: 1336.50 needs to hold. shouldn't drop more than 2.75- 3.00 points off of the high or there could be a better pullback. At the moment it looks okay unless 1337.50 breaks

Feb 3, 2012 10:45:36 AM EST
mike: 1338 is a small support that needs to hold on the next pullback. So far they haven't been able to hold over 1339.50 and this could see a pullback

Feb 3, 2012 10:50:41 AM EST
mike: 1338 .00 held so far, but if this is not able to push over 1339 .50 on this move up then a pullback two 1336.50 area

Feb 3, 2012 11:03:37 AM EST
mike: this move has run out a steam but there should be buyers at lower levels. 1336.50- 1335.75 area is support\target 1339.50 resistance needs cleared and held

Feb 3, 2012 11:17:10 AM EST
mike: 1336.50- 1335.75 area still looks like a key area that needs held or quickly reversed to keep the market from rolling over towards 1333. 1337 was a low on the pullback

Feb 3, 2012 11:22:20 AM EST
mike: 1339- 1339 .50 area that needs pushed through to get the upside going but a failure/rejection of that area would give another pullback. In any case the move this bullish as long as 1336.50 is held

Feb 3, 2012 11:32:42 AM EST
mike: they are stuck at 1339.50 but if they hold 1338.75 and can push through 1339.50 and hold then it's possible for this to go for 1342 1344 area on this leg up

Feb 3, 2012 11:37:17 AM EST
mike: needs to stay over 1339.50 after poking through 1340 to make that move towards 1342-1344 otherwise it's a bit toppy up here

Feb 3, 2012 11:57:16 AM EST
mike: they have been stuck here for about 25 minutes. We still need to stay over 1339.50 after a push through 1340 to extend the upside towards 1342-1344. NQ needs to get over 2527 and hold

Feb 3, 2012 12:00:15 PM EST
mike: a bounce should be sold now especially on the NQ. The ES has a short around 1339

Feb 3, 2012 12:05:20 PM EST
mike: 1336.50 is still the important support to bounce from on a pullback. It will probably be hard to keep the market down today, just small pullbacks unless 1336 .50 is broken and not quickly reversed. The short side is for a scalp trade only. 1342- 1344 is still possible

Feb 3, 2012 12:20:21 PM EST
mike: 1340 was touched and backing of from that level. don't expect much of a pullback the market seems to feel comfortable in this area, as long as 1336.50 is not broken and quickly reversed back up

Feb 3, 2012 12:36:43 PM EST
mike: the 1340 has been a lid and continues to be rejected. a pullback should be bought around 1338.50 1337.75 area. This is slow in choppy, the market shouldn't have another big trending move unless it's late in the day

Feb 3, 2012 12:52:42 PM EST
mike: 1342-1344 area still could be in the cards here on this leg up 1339.50 should hold now to continue higher

Feb 3, 2012 1:04:59 PM EST
mike: 1339 .50 brought in some buying. that high area at 1341 .50 should be hard to get through and hold. That 1339 .50 area should hold, or be a transition area if broken to test the 1338 area

Feb 3, 2012 1:13:26 PM EST
mike: 1339.50 was held again. They need to hold that and push over 1340.50 and stick up there to get a push to 1342-1344 area it appears

Feb 3, 2012 1:23:06 PM EST
mike: 1339 .50 needs to hold or they will drop down to 1338.50 or a bit lower before turning back up, the ES should be unable to hold on a bounce from 1339 .50 again

Feb 3, 2012 1:26:26 PM EST
mike: I need to take a quick break here, back in 10 minutes or so

Feb 3, 2012 1:51:10 PM EST
mike: this should bounce from 1338.50, but expect a bounce to be sold around the 1340.50 area. If that's not sold then there is one more pushed to 1342-1344 area

Feb 3, 2012 2:11:11 PM EST
mike: they turned up from 1338 .75-would scalp out that or keep a stop at breakeven at the worst

Feb 3, 2012 2:21:29 PM EST
mike: a big 2.00 point move from 1 tick over 1338.50 support. needs to hold 1340

Feb 3, 2012 2:40:13 PM EST
mike: the better part of the last two days have been unbearably slow and dull / it just needs to stay over 1338.75 or trend break

Feb 3, 2012 2:55:28 PM EST
mike: look for a high that the 1342- 1344 area as long as 1339.5 is held.

Feb 3, 2012 3:04:45 PM EST
mike: I'm not going to be here after a few minutes. . This rally doesn't want to stop, but a reversal from that area could make a top ./ I don't like the way that the NQ. is acting up here

Feb 3, 2012 3:07:01 PM EST
mike: have a great weekend. Here's to a volatile week next week!

 

 

 

Thursday- February 02, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Feb 2, 2012 9:31:05 AM EST
mike: running late. 1322-1321.50 must hold that looks

Feb 2, 2012 9:37:09 AM EST
mike: support held, but not in good shape unless they move over 23.50-24.00 and it can hold. 21.50 broken we go to 2050 and lower possibly

Feb 2, 2012 9:41:12 AM EST
mike: they can go back to 1319.25 or lower if no bounce off of 1320.50

Feb 2, 2012 9:47:52 AM EST
mike: 1319.25 just missed so far. Should bounce a bit from here,1321.75 area would be first resistance on a bounce

Feb 2, 2012 9:52:00 AM EST
mike: 1319.25 still a target, if no bounce off of that, 1317 area or lower coming. This stays bearish under 21.50

Feb 2, 2012 9:57:39 AM EST
mike: 1319.25 low at support. That must hold, should be important low early. This could get out of trouble if 1321.50 area is exceeded and then held

Feb 2, 2012 10:02:40 AM EST
mike: 1321.50 area it is support now. Good /key resistance at 1323.00-1323.50 per last night's update

Feb 2, 2012 10:08:39 AM EST
mike: the bounce from 1319.25 stopped right at the 23.00-23.50 area. But 1321.50 held so far, that should be pivotal

Feb 2, 2012 10:14:49 AM EST
mike: 1323 area support now.1321.50 is still pivotal. they may have topped if that isn't held

Feb 2, 2012 10:19:42 AM EST
mike: 1323.00 was bought keeping the bounce in gear. Bernanke speaking could make this more fluid. this must stay over 1323 to avoid reversal

Feb 2, 2012 10:21:54 AM EST
mike: obeyed support on the way up from low at the updated support at 1319.25. NQA high might be in following the

Feb 2, 2012 10:28:05 AM EST
mike: that NQ is acting odd so not following it so closely for now. 1324 needs cleared for the market to get out of some trouble here, 1321.50 important area

Feb 2, 2012 10:41:13 AM EST
mike: for now as long as the ES holds 1322.25 and the NQ holds 2494 area, no damage done, no reversal - but will be if broken. A push over 24.00 needs to stick here to/keep- get the upside going

Feb 2, 2012 10:43:38 AM EST
mike: look for 1325.00-1325.75 for a resistance up here. This should hold 1323.50 to stay strong

Feb 2, 2012 10:46:18 AM EST
mike: a bounce from 1323.50 support, that area needs to hold to keep the up side intact here

Feb 2, 2012 10:51:56 AM EST
mike: 1325.75 was reached- they start to be resistance up there

Feb 2, 2012 10:53:53 AM EST
mike: a drop from that resistance needs to hold 1324.25 1323.75 area at the lowest to keep the move from reversing, or at least a decent pullback

Feb 2, 2012 11:08:21 AM EST
mike: top out at 1326 so far, just above the 1325.75 resistance. Pullback held just over the 1323.75 important support on first test. A break of that and we would have high in place

Feb 2, 2012 11:09:04 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 15 minutes. My apologies

Feb 2, 2012 11:36:04 AM EST
mike: dynamics are changing, if they go under 1322.25-1321.75 area, they would need to turn right back up -otherwise reversing towards low of the day potentially. Possibly test 1318.75-1318.00 area before finding a bounce

Feb 2, 2012 11:39:04 AM EST
mike: 1322.25-1322.75 would be resistance, bounce but should make a test of the low if that's not exceeded/held

Feb 2, 2012 11:59:22 AM EST
mike: 1322 .25 just missed. 1322.00 the bounce high so far. that should be important. A move down through 20.75 needed to get a break lower going towards 1319 .25 and then 1308.50- 1308 .00 area

Feb 2, 2012 12:00:38 PM EST
mike: if that 1320.75 is held then they can attempt to move towards 1323

Feb 2, 2012 12:08:01 PM EST
mike: still must get over 1322.25, or the 1318.50 area can be seen if they hold on push under 20.75

Feb 2, 2012 12:13:58 PM EST
mike: 1320 .75 broken, looking for a test note this morning's low and likely a move to 1318 .50- 1318.00 area. that would be a key area, but need to hold world market in some trouble

Feb 2, 2012 12:22:33 PM EST
mike: 13/18 .75 low on that move. a key area. or 1316-1315 zone could be seen. 1320 .75 resistance now and needs clear to get a bounce

Feb 2, 2012 12:32:17 PM EST
mike: the ES made a bottom just one tick above the 1318.50 support, so far. The NQ still rolling over and may pull the ES down with it

Feb 2, 2012 12:32:41 PM EST
mike: 1320.75 still resistance

Feb 2, 2012 12:40:36 PM EST
mike: the market has reacted off of a support or resistance on the way up than on the way down all day so far. If you have my e-book or read the greed live course, look over "last trapped" as it has worked best on the micro term when the market is moving slowly. This break should open the door for a drop down to the 1316-1315 area still. The NQ should be leading the way

Feb 2, 2012 12:46:56 PM EST
mike: a pullback will be a buying opportunity now, a low should be in for a while

Feb 2, 2012 1:04:47 PM EST
mike: 1319.50 area is a good support now. That will need to hold on a pullback. the 1321.50 is resistance

Feb 2, 2012 1:10:02 PM EST
mike: 1319.75 was bought on the dip, that support area needs defended on the next pullback. This can push up towards 1322 .25 on a move over 1321 that holds, not reversed back down. Shouldn't be if the move is strong

Feb 2, 2012 1:19:43 PM EST
mike: 1321 was reversed, need to get over that and hold 1320.50 on a dip to get the upside going, not stall out and make another top up here

Feb 2, 2012 1:38:50 PM EST
mike: 1319.75- 1319.50 has been holding. Another pullback has to hold there or they roll over fairly hard. Need a move over 1321.50 to spark a bit of a squeeze move to the upside. That's also right at 12,700 on the Dow cash

Feb 2, 2012 1:57:37 PM EST
mike: holding 1321.50 keeps the move and bullish mode for now. 13 23 .50-1324 possible

Feb 2, 2012 2:09:47 PM EST
mike: 1321 .50 is holding so can still see 1324 on this move. If 1321.50- 1321 is broken then things could change

Feb 2, 2012 2:21:03 PM EST
mike: a lot of folks have left due to the lack of volatility. it was just a slow grind higher but will start to break lower if 1321 is not held.

Feb 2, 2012 2:45:41 PM EST
mike: they held at 1321 .25 and just missed getting to the 1323 area -market has been back and forth, 1323-1323.50 area that was key early coming into the day is key resistance on any bounce now. A drop back to 1319 .25 or even 1318 area again possible if 1321 area broken-obviously important in this range

Feb 2, 2012 2:53:31 PM EST
mike: they bounce off of 1321 so the upside still has a chance. that must hold it appears. in any case I need to leave early today and there's not much volatility to trade.

Feb 2, 2012 2:57:46 PM EST
mike: employment number in the morning also. Have a good rest of your day.

 

 

 

Wednesday- February 01, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Feb 1, 2012 9:36:49 AM EST
mike: This could go to 1321-22 area as long as they don't break 1318-1317.50 area. but if a drop doesn't hold 1318 then they can drop down through-to the

Feb 1, 2012 9:39:28 AM EST
mike: the next bounce should fail, might have high in especially if 1319 not held

Feb 1, 2012 9:47:41 AM EST
mike: resistance around 1319needs cleared and held to avoid a drop to 1316-1315

Feb 1, 2012 9:57:22 AM EST
mike: 1319 50 was rejected, for economic data top of the hour\need to get over 1319-1319.50 and although her that. If they break/pulled under 1317 50 the pressure on

Feb 1, 2012 10:00:17 AM EST
mike: for right now, buyers in charge as long as 1317 is held

Feb 1, 2012 10:00:51 AM EST
mike: to test 1321-22 area

Feb 1, 2012 10:01:57 AM EST
mike: focus on shore side on bounces

Feb 1, 2012 10:05:42 AM EST
mike: another bounce from 1317. The bounce should fail maybe 1321-22 area, but no damage done until 1317 broken

Feb 1, 2012 10:13:07 AM EST
mike: 1321-22 area slightly exceeded, 1321 .50 a small support, 1319.50 area needs to hold on a pullback if going to avoid reversal.

Feb 1, 2012 10:20:29 AM EST
mike: 1321.50 held so far. If broken then 1320 .50 area small support would be next

Feb 1, 2012 10:32:02 AM EST
mike: they topped out for now, this should drop down to 1320 area

Feb 1, 2012 10:35:32 AM EST
mike: 1320.75- 1320 .25 area should be a place where a bounce can come from.

Feb 1, 2012 10:38:53 AM EST
mike: if that 1320.75 area not held then 1319.50- 1319 should be a key area. If that's reached, they should bounce right back or things will be changing. 1322.25 has resistance now that needs to be cleared/held

Feb 1, 2012 10:49:47 AM EST
mike: longs are quick to nab a profit on a pop. Bounces aren't sticking yet but as long as 1321 is held buyers are in charge but quick to grab profits so far

Feb 1, 2012 11:08:08 AM EST
mike: selling came in at the Globex high but buyers are firmly in charge at the moment. To break this, the ES would need to break below 1321.50 and the NQ breaking under 2479 and not quickly turning back up.

Feb 1, 2012 11:19:23 AM EST
mike: it needs to bounce from here, 1323 needs cleared and held if so, market is tired

Feb 1, 2012 11:22:04 AM EST
mike: should bounce with gusto and take out 1322.50-1323 and keep going, otherwise a top will be made up here

Feb 1, 2012 11:50:06 AM EST
mike: it's getting a little bit thin and choppy. 1321 area must hold for this to avoid a breakdown

Feb 1, 2012 12:17:16 PM EST
mike: this is having trouble going higher through 1324 , 1321 is still the key support to hold to avoid breaking down, the market is bullish as long as that holds for now, remember that was a prior resistance

Feb 1, 2012 12:19:55 PM EST
mike: the new high has been sold them the next pullback gets bought normally. Watch 23.50 area for support

Feb 1, 2012 12:40:37 PM EST
mike: the NQ needs to stay over 2488 and the ES needs to stay over 1324 or the dynamics will be changing

Feb 1, 2012 12:51:06 PM EST
mike: they are stalling out and ready to roll over

Feb 1, 2012 12:51:45 PM EST
mike: they need to bounce off of 1324 or 1323.50 area at the lowest, or things will change

Feb 1, 2012 12:54:44 PM EST
mike: the 20 EMA on the five-minute ES chart has moved up to 1323.50 so that is another reason they need another bounce from 1324 here to keep up upside intact

Feb 1, 2012 1:01:06 PM EST
mike: I have top in place, need to push through 1325 soon, otherwise a pullback from up here could start

Feb 1, 2012 1:06:39 PM EST
mike: 1325-1324.50 area should hold now if this is going to continue its grind higher

Feb 1, 2012 1:21:41 PM EST
mike: this is going to go to the 1328-29 area or higher the way it's looking. I wouldn't short this market the way it's acting, just five pullbacks until something changes

Feb 1, 2012 1:30:14 PM EST
mike: they're finally should be a breather and pullback from that 1327 area. A lower high would be a logical spot for a pullback. 1325 days to hold where things will be changing at least on the short-term intraday basis

Feb 1, 2012 1:45:24 PM EST
mike: 1327 rejected twice and should be a good top now. They bounce back to 1325.50 areas should be sold. 1324 is a minor support area for a bounce to occur

Feb 1, 2012 1:57:23 PM EST
mike: bounce failed just under 1325.50,and 1323.75 was reached.. They don't down unless they go under 1323.50 and then stay under that level, and maybe more importantly breaking the 1322-1321 old resistance turned support, to turn this all back down

Feb 1, 2012 1:58:44 PM EST
mike: bounces to the 1325-1325.50 area should fail for now, look for a short in that area if reached

Feb 1, 2012 2:03:44 PM EST
mike: 1325.50 was a resistance coming into the day but not listed in the support/resistance table. That looks to be like a pivot area. A rejection of that area would keep the market short-term negative although the 1327 high. If that is cleared, then the uptrend is back in force

Feb 1, 2012 2:15:23 PM EST
mike: the way this is acting, the market is not going to roll over and start a trend down type of move. Buying came in at 1323.50, market should be in an uptrend as long as that is held

Feb 1, 2012 2:35:40 PM EST
mike: it's getting choppy. There was a quick bounce off of 1323.50 again but it didn't stick. I think selling bounces around 1320.50 the better odds, cover him at 1323.50. That will turn into resistance there is a break to the downside towards 1321 area

Feb 1, 2012 2:43:55 PM EST
mike: they tagged 1325 for a short and now 1323.50 to cover. This is turning into key support with 1321 for the next support below.

Feb 1, 2012 2:46:21 PM EST
mike: I'll be back in about 10 minutes., Look for 1322-1321 area to be tested on a break that's not quickly reverse here at 23.50

Feb 1, 2012 3:09:57 PM EST
mike: they only fell to 1322.75, and are back close to 1325. A pushover that could cause a bit of a squeeze

Feb 1, 2012 3:11:17 PM EST
mike: doubt that it will be enough to get through 1327 by much

Feb 1, 2012 3:21:32 PM EST
mike: market doesn't seem to like it up there around 1326 and 1327. A drop under 1323.50th that isn't quickly reversed should start a move to 1322-1321

Feb 1, 2012 3:25:32 PM EST
mike: 1322 .00 was reached and gave a small bounce so far, 23.50-24 .00 should be resistance on a bounce now

Feb 1, 2012 3:33:25 PM EST
mike: the bounce stopped one tick below the 1323.50 resistance and a move to 1321 needs reversed quickly to avoid a poor close

Feb 1, 2012 3:38:51 PM EST
mike: 1321 held by one tick so far. That could be the late low. If not been 1320.25-1319.50 area would be next have they do break through 1321

Feb 1, 2012 3:39:03 PM EST
mike: have a great rest of your day
 

 

 

Tuesday- January 31, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 31, 2012 9:33:15 AM EST
mike: opening at 1316 resistance - to turn down they need to break under 1315 and hold

Jan 31, 2012 9:40:41 AM EST
mike: this needs to hold over 1316 area now on a pullback, that is now support that needs to hold. 1317.50- 1318 could give pullback

Jan 31, 2012 9:44:32 AM EST
mike: 1315-1316 resistance on a bounce. A break under 1313.50 send them lower

Jan 31, 2012 9:46:06 AM EST
mike: should go to 1310

Jan 31, 2012 9:54:42 AM EST
mike: NQ leading the ES again, starting its move about 5-6 seconds or so before the ES begins to follow it. The 1312.50-1312.00 area it is key to hold or they go to 1310 for a bounce

Jan 31, 2012 9:58:09 AM EST
mike: 1312.00 a low so far -more economic data coming in a few minutes

Jan 31, 2012 10:01:19 AM EST
mike: 1310 should be tested, sell bounces if not short 1312.50 area resistance now

Jan 31, 2012 10:05:35 AM EST
mike: the bounce to 1312 was sold staying under that day go to 1307 area. 1312.50key resistance now

Jan 31, 2012 10:11:26 AM EST
mike: 1307 tested. 1310.50 is resistance that shouldn't be cleared, but if it is then the 1312 area it is key resistance and should be pivotal. Another push lower targets 1305-1304.50

Jan 31, 2012 10:17:54 AM EST
mike: 1307 target area was reached, this bounce shouldn't be able to get over 1310.50 and stick to low is in place- if it does then 1312 area is the key area. If that is not sold then a move towards 1315 possible where that would be good selling territory

Jan 31, 2012 10:23:42 AM EST
mike: 1310.25 bounce high and a 1.75 point pullback caught a bid. Need to stay over 1308.50 to avoid breaking down, and get over 1310.50 and hold to try to get upside going again.

Jan 31, 2012 10:32:22 AM EST
mike: bounce stopped just under 1312 so far. if they don't hold 1309-1308.50 then there can be another push lower towards 1305-1304.50

Jan 31, 2012 10:36:04 AM EST
mike: two small pullbacks of 1.75 points from the bounce highs. Should roll over 1309.75 is broken by much here

Jan 31, 2012 10:41:53 AM EST
mike: 1305- 1304.50 is support on this drop lower. The 1309.50-1310 should be resistance on a bounce from here . The NQ is still leading the move

Jan 31, 2012 10:51:22 AM EST
mike: 1305.50 was reached, just above 1305-1304.50 area. 1307.50 should not be exceeded if you're going to test/break that 1304 .50 area

Jan 31, 2012 10:56:33 AM EST
mike: 1304.25 a low so far. They need to get over 1307.50-1308.25 to take pressure off. The 1302-1301 zone would be next support 1304.25 can't hold, and we should see a bounce from that area if reached

Jan 31, 2012 11:04:19 AM EST
mike: 1308.75 should be a key resistance on a better bounce off of 1304.25 low. back in about 10-15 minutes

Jan 31, 2012 11:18:34 AM EST
mike: yesterday was a gap down day with a reversal in a trend up move. This could be the opposite. it will depend on the 1302-1301 area - it is key to avoid sliding down towards 1298 or lower. 1305 area is resistance. Needs to be cleared and held on a pullback to try to get turned back up

Jan 31, 2012 11:41:40 AM EST
mike: last bounce was turned back from 1305 area, but are holding just above the key 1302-1301 area. A push up through 1305 that can hold will start a relief bounce to 1307-1308 area

Jan 31, 2012 11:48:52 AM EST
mike: this needs to get over 1305 to avoid another push to lower.. NQ leading lower still

Jan 31, 2012 12:10:47 PM EST
mike: one hour of trading between 1305.25 point top and 1302.25 on the bottom. That low was just above a key support, this should try at least one decent bounce. Could go to 1307-1308 area if they can breakout on the upside and hold 1305 on a pullback

Jan 31, 2012 12:18:06 PM EST
mike: for now this looks like it's out of trouble and can rally two 1307-1308 if 1304 is not broken

Jan 31, 2012 12:20:13 PM EST
mike: 1306 .50 should be watched for a pullback two 1305.

Jan 31, 2012 12:27:03 PM EST
mike: a heavy market and bounces not able to stick, and they have no gusto behind them. This needs to bounce from 1304.50 area to avoid potential breakdown and also keep a chance to test 1306.50 or higher before this comes back down again

Jan 31, 2012 12:37:42 PM EST
mike: they popped up to 1306.50 so far- and the NQ appears to be firming up a bit. a pullback now needs to stay over 1305. If that isn't held then the bounce is probably over. 1307.5 0-1308 next resistance

Jan 31, 2012 12:46:20 PM EST
mike: bounce high should be in, watching the NQ to see if it can hold or bounce from 2456, if they can't then the market could roll over again. If it does we could get one more pop up

Jan 31, 2012 12:57:28 PM EST
mike: 1305 held on the pullback and now this needs to pushover 1307, not fail there, to get a move towards 1308. In any case 1305 it is now dynamic support needs to hold

Jan 31, 2012 1:14:36 PM EST
mike: the ES held just above the 1302-1301 pivotal support after the early drop of 15 points. That's about the average range over the last 3, 5, and 10 days. So should have a low in, if not then something is wrong or broken with the market. There could be a pullback from the 1308 area but as long as 1306.50 holds this trend stays up. If broken then 1305 is still a key area along with 2457 on the NQ. If 1308 is not rejected, but the blown through instead, then 1310 .50-1312 area would be possible

Jan 31, 2012 1:21:24 PM EST
mike: 1308 was touched , 1307 needs to hold now and 2461 on the NQ in a very slow grind higher

Jan 31, 2012 1:33:09 PM EST
mike: look to sell if there is one more pop up, but it looks like we may have seen a high

Jan 31, 2012 1:41:14 PM EST
mike: market pattern is in a bad position. 1308 was rejected, and it caused a wedge was broken. The rejection of 1308 is similar to the rejection/hold at 1302 this morning. Could mean a test of 1302

Jan 31, 2012 1:47:42 PM EST
mike: it breaks under the 1305 level would be needed to trigger selling down to 1302- 1301 area

Jan 31, 2012 1:58:45 PM EST
mike: 1305 .50 is a pivotal level to stay under, 2459 area on NQ, both look to be pivotal

Jan 31, 2012 2:03:38 PM EST
mike: that pop up to 1305.75 on ES and that 2459 on the NQ showed rejection and it is a short under against those levels

Jan 31, 2012 2:19:37 PM EST
mike: there could be a test of that 1308 area and possibly a bit higher that gets rejected

Jan 31, 2012 2:23:44 PM EST
mike: 1309 rejected. That should be a high, if not then 13 11 area should be the maximum on this bounce. 130650 is a s.mall support that needs to hold, then it's 1304

Jan 31, 2012 2:47:14 PM EST
mike: drop down to 1306.50, needs to bounce here or go to 1305-1304 area again

Jan 31, 2012 2:54:34 PM EST
mike: 1306.50 held, it's a key area now. 1308 needs to be cleared and held to get a move up to 1310.50- 1312 area

Jan 31, 2012 3:04:07 PM EST
mike: there is good resistance at the 1309 level, it's a short under that area down to 1306.50 at least. It's possible that they go back to 1304

Jan 31, 2012 3:12:18 PM EST
mike: 1309 was rejected again, but in the last hour the market will be okay as long as it holds 1306.50. if 1306.50 is broken, the ES should go right to 1305-1304 area. If they cut through that, then they should go right to the 1302 low area, possibly break that by a tiny bit before turning back up

Jan 31, 2012 3:23:30 PM EST
mike: if this doesn't hold 1307 .25 then the next bounce will be sold. Look for sellers around 1310-1311 in any case

Jan 31, 2012 3:38:38 PM EST
mike: sellers at 1309.75, keeping it under 1310 will be bearish. 1306.50 piece to hold or they could slide down to the 1304

Jan 31, 2012 3:43:30 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day. I'll see you tomorrow morning maybe a little bit later than usual. This chart pattern is a dangerous one, a number of the breakdown points are building. They haven't broken yet anyhow have a good day

 

 

Monday- January 30, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 30, 2012 9:29:26 AM EST
mike: 1299 area is met, and needs to hold down there. 1302 should be pivotal, if clearer than held then the key resistance is at 1307-1308 area

Jan 30, 2012 9:37:00 AM EST
mike: 1298 .25- 1298.50 is a key, must hold, area. need a move over 1300 to hold, and then they push over 1302 to avoid more trouble

Jan 30, 2012 9:38:04 AM EST
mike: staying under 1300 keeps pressure on

Jan 30, 2012 9:39:23 AM EST
mike: that could be a low for a bit, but need to see 1300 cleared/held to even try to get something going on the upside.

Jan 30, 2012 9:42:17 AM EST
mike: should be okay as long as 1299 holds at the moment

Jan 30, 2012 9:45:13 AM EST
mike: 1302 area will need to be clear and held on a pullback to keep moving higher. 1299.50 is a important support now, that should be held to keep this up

Jan 30, 2012 9:50:01 AM EST
mike: 1301.25-1302.00 area need to be cleared and held to get something going on the upside. Not trusting bounces

Jan 30, 2012 9:52:48 AM EST
mike: 1296-1295.50 is a support that could give a bounce, 1292.50-1292 area is one key area that must hold on a deep drop to avoid a potential breakdown of this pattern

Jan 30, 2012 9:55:11 AM EST
mike: 1299.75 area resistance on this bounce. Then the key area at 1301-1302 if that is cleared

Jan 30, 2012 10:01:05 AM EST
mike: it stopped just under what should be pivotal resistance so far at the 1301.25-1302 area. this can stay over 1298.25 on the next pullback then it should be putting in a low. If not held then we could have a drop-down to around 1296-1295 area

Jan 30, 2012 10:07:07 AM EST
mike: still has its work cut out for it to get out of trouble., but if you bought put options last week with me cover half of the position. down here.

Jan 30, 2012 10:13:02 AM EST
mike: 1298.50 needs to be cleared/held to take some pressure off.

Jan 30, 2012 10:21:55 AM EST
mike: a wimpy bounce so far to 1298.50 resistance. 1299.50 has to be exceeded to begin to dig out of this hole .

Jan 30, 2012 10:26:43 AM EST
mike: this pullback needs to stay over 1297.50 now to have a low in place

Jan 30, 2012 10:33:03 AM EST
mike: a quick reversal back up from 1297.25, that area should be key to hold now. This still needs to pushover 1299.50 to have a low and place for a while

Jan 30, 2012 10:44:41 AM EST
mike: 1298.50 is now support that needs to hold if going higher to test 1301.25-1302 area. If that breaks, then a drop to 1297.50 - 1297.00 at least

Jan 30, 2012 10:51:08 AM EST
mike: reach the 1301.25-1302 key area. This should avoid trouble as long as 1299.50 area is held. That is pivotal now on a pullback

Jan 30, 2012 10:58:24 AM EST
mike: it was sold just under 1302.00, a pullback to 1299.50-1299.00 area is support it needs to be held if there's going to be another push higher. Keep an eye on the NQ it should stay over 2438 or the market would be in trouble

Jan 30, 2012 11:06:18 AM EST
mike: the ES is going to be following the NQ as it is leading with some gusto. 2444 is key support over there. 1300.25 the key on the ES on a pullback. 1302 now should hold on a small dip to power higher or It could begin to look toppy and test those key areas.

Jan 30, 2012 11:10:34 AM EST
mike: pullback held 1302 and pushed higher but it didn't stick. pullback to That 1302 area needs to hold to avoid testing 1300 area again

Jan 30, 2012 11:14:14 AM EST
mike: the move stalled out, this pullback could go to 1300.75-1300.25 but would need to turn right back up from that area or the market will be rolling over

Jan 30, 2012 11:18:57 AM EST
mike: held over 1301.75 so far. that area should be pivotal support. NQ still the lead to keep an eye on. back about 10-15 minutes

Jan 30, 2012 11:41:24 AM EST
mike: market is and a good uptrend that could go for 1307-1308 area if this keeps grinding higher. that new highs for the move are being sold, but only get pullback. Move should tire out pretty soon. only if they break under 1302 now on the ES and it's at the 2452 level on the NQ looks to be pivotal up here,

Jan 30, 2012 11:47:55 AM EST
mike: 1301 .25 is a pivotal area to hold on this pullback.. A high should be in for a bit, or at least fail on the next pop-up

Jan 30, 2012 11:55:29 AM EST
mike: 1302 on the ES and 2452 on the NQ held so far, should be even more important to hold now. If those break than a high should be in place for a while

Jan 30, 2012 12:15:53 PM EST
mike: both 1302 on the ES and the 2452 on the NQ were held/quickly reversed. a push up over 1304 is needed to get one more push higher and look for a test of 1307-1308. That area should offer some good resistance

Jan 30, 2012 12:23:44 PM EST
mike: as long as 1303 holds or it is quickly reversed if broken, this grind up to 1307-1308 still is in the cards. The 1302 area is a key support that must hold to avoid a reversal and topping pattern

Jan 30, 2012 12:30:13 PM EST
mike: we will have the first test of the 60 EMA on the five-minute chart at 1305. The Dow cash has been in a very thin grind higher to just under 12,600 so far. Buyers are in control, they could see a pullback from up here is the 1303 needs broken to begin building a top

Jan 30, 2012 12:39:24 PM EST
mike: they drop from a resistance on the bigger picture to support on a smaller time frame. This should go lower from up here and possibly to the 1301.25 area which is the pivotal area up here

Jan 30, 2012 1:05:46 PM EST
mike: we had the pull back off of the stall at 1304.25. They held just above that 1302 on the ES and also that 2452 level on the NQ. If those are broken, then a high should be in place and a good sized retracement gets started. a retest of this morning low would then be possible before the market makes a bottom. 1305 should be good resistance if they pop up one more time from here

Jan 30, 2012 1:13:28 PM EST
mike: can bounce from lists 1301.25 area but it shouldn't take out 1304 before pulling back again

Jan 30, 2012 1:26:47 PM EST
mike: 1304 exceeded on the bounce. Pull back needs to hold around 1303 now. If reached it needs to turn right back up.

Jan 30, 2012 1:35:43 PM EST
mike: the market wasn't too far away from breaking the rising wedge pattern this morning. the 1296 area, especially on a close, mark that as a key support. it's going to be Bad news if it's broken now given that the market has had a decent rally from that area. a parabolic move would also be breaking. Should see a bit of a pullback from 1305, but This can go fill the gap that 1307 area IF it stays over 1303.50 at the lowest .

Jan 30, 2012 1:38:21 PM EST
mike: it has been a been Gap day/trend day which is pretty common. 1307-1308 should be in the cards, then some pullback

Jan 30, 2012 1:46:04 PM EST
mike: gap at 1307.00 almost filled. 1310-1312 strong resistance above that should be sold if reached. 1304.25 should now be good support on a pullback.

Jan 30, 2012 1:54:19 PM EST
mike: 1307-1308 area turned into a good wall of resistance for now. A decent pullback would be likely, but not as long as 1306 holds. If they break 1306 and the test of 1304.25 could be seen. That's a key support now than the market would need to bounce from there

Jan 30, 2012 2:03:29 PM EST
mike: 1306.25 held on the pullback, keeps the move in a trend up mode. It begins to break down to possibly test 1304 area

Jan 30, 2012 2:11:46 PM EST
mike: still holding 1306. need a push over 1308 to get a squeeze to the 1310.50-1312.00 area

Jan 30, 2012 2:17:45 PM EST
mike: 1308 area needs to hold now. They pop up to 1310.50-1312 could happen but should be sold into

Jan 30, 2012 2:29:33 PM EST
mike: 1308 was tested again and a small bounce. 1310.50-1312 .00 still important resistance above. 1308 needs to hold or this can roll over a bit from up here

Jan 30, 2012 2:43:30 PM EST
mike: still hovering over 1308. As long as that holds there should be a poke up to 1310 .50- 1312 .00 area,

Jan 30, 2012 2:50:19 PM EST
mike: 1310.50 was just missed, 1308 tested, a high should be in so look for next bounce to be sold

Jan 30, 2012 3:04:59 PM EST
mike: this is a top in place at least for today, he bounced back should fail to get over 1308.50- 1309 area now. 1306 is a minor support, 1304 area must hold or a test/break of 1301

Jan 30, 2012 3:19:17 PM EST
mike: they stalled and turned up from just above1306, now if there is going to be a late pullback then either they rally and to 330 p.m. And reverse from around high at 1310.50, or reverse back down under 1307.75, which could put some pressure on if not quickly reversed back up.

Jan 30, 2012 3:32:02 PM EST
mike: they dropped down to 1307 .50, then quickly turned up. That is key in the last half-hour, could still pop up to 1310 .50- 1312 area if they can stay over 1308.50 .if 1307.50 not held, could see a late drop

Jan 30, 2012 3:32:36 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day. I'll see you in the morning.

 

 

 

Friday- January 27, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 27, 2012 9:22:15 AM EST
mike: I'm going to focus on the short side today unless something happens that changes my mind. Looks like 1309.25 is a small resistance, 1312.50 area is small resistance, but 1315-1316 area, that area should be pivotal and sold if they can bounce that far. Should be a short covering bounce from this lower open - they need to stay over 1308.50- 1308.00. But expect the bounces expecting the bounces to fail

Jan 27, 2012 9:28:52 AM EST
mike: I think I need to cut down on the number of updates I send. I noticed that there was a ton to read, so I'll only give what looks most important, and try not to be so wordy

Jan 27, 2012 9:36:07 AM EST
mike: short covering bounce, look for resistance at 1312.50 area and if that's taken then 1315-1316 area is next. 1309.75 area is early support needs to hold on a pullback

Jan 27, 2012 9:43:45 AM EST
mike: we get Michigan sentiment at 9:55 AM, 15 minutes from now. This needs to say over 1312.50 and hold, at worst stay over 1311 to avoid rolling over.

Jan 27, 2012 9:59:46 AM EST
mike: 1311.75 is a dynamic support that needs to hold or the bounce will be reversed. not much of a reaction from the Michigan sentiment. a pop up to the 1315-1316 area still possible, but that should be sold if they get that far, might have topped already but that's the first key area on this bounce

Jan 27, 2012 10:03:39 AM EST
mike: we should have a top in place. 1309.50 first support then the low area around 1307

Jan 27, 2012 10:05:56 AM EST
mike: 1311.75-1312.50 area is resistance on a bounce, but if 1309.50 isn't held it may not get back there

Jan 27, 2012 10:12:23 AM EST
mike: so far they turn up from 1309.50 area but still under pressure as long as they stay under 1311.75-1312.50 area

Jan 27, 2012 10:18:08 AM EST
mike: they made it to the resistance area with some gusto. watch 1310.50 area on a pullback. . If they get there and bounce right back, then the market can try one more push higher

Jan 27, 2012 10:22:25 AM EST
mike: a short from 1311. 75 area should be covered (at least part) at the 1310.50 support. they turned down from a pivotal resistance, but they bounce from this area possible if going higher

Jan 27, 2012 10:27:41 AM EST
mike: 1310.50 area was bid up well, that area needs held on a pullback to avoid rolling over and giving it better indication that a high would be in. 1315-1316 is a bigger resistance if this is able to get through the early high

Jan 27, 2012 10:31:24 AM EST
mike: 1311.75 area needs to hold as support now.

Jan 27, 2012 10:40:04 AM EST
mike: a double top at tick extreme, buying dries up/taking profits or selling from buyers who are stuck above when the bounces stall out. This is a short under the 1312.50 area now, 1314 area should be exceeded

Jan 27, 2012 10:43:31 AM EST
mike: extreme tick on the downside, needs to bounce from 1309.50 or later up another point to 1308.50. A bounce from here should fail to clear the high, and hold

Jan 27, 2012 10:51:34 AM EST
mike: they reached 1308.50 and turned up, 1308.50 is still key support. but as long as they stay under 1311.50 area they are still vulnerable

Jan 27, 2012 10:52:51 AM EST
mike: back in 10 minutes or so

Jan 27, 2012 11:23:43 AM EST
mike: we have had a choppy 7 point range so far. need to be a scalper mostly on a day like this. Look for a pop-up to a higher high in the uptrends to be sold as soon as the move stalls out. And then they pull back 1.50-2. 00 points, that's been the pattern so far.. it's the opposite on the pullback as soon as the move stalls out. They should give a quick bounce. at the moment this uptrend stays intact unless 1311.50 is broken. If that is broken then 1310.75 needs to hold

Jan 27, 2012 11:30:19 AM EST
mike: pullback of 1.50 points off of the high, and then bounce back quickly-.if the NQ begins to break lower in those under 2455 and doesn't turn right back up, it can pull the ES down

Jan 27, 2012 11:38:34 AM EST
mike: any decent bounce will be sold into. 1311 area is resistance in the 2455.50 area on the NQ. They could be headed towards 1307 if no quick reversal from 1308.50

Jan 27, 2012 11:42:44 AM EST
mike: look for 1306-1305.50on a break of 1308.50 here,

Jan 27, 2012 12:05:46 PM EST
mike: they should pull back from that 1311.75 bounce high and need to hold the 1309.50 to keep a bounce from failing

Jan 27, 2012 12:12:58 PM EST
mike: still think that 1306-1305.50 area get seen. 1309.50 looks pivotal on a bounce

Jan 27, 2012 12:34:18 PM EST
mike: it looks like a double bottom but if 1307 is broken then we should continue to push lower to the 1306-1305.50 area and then bounce back. On the top side, the 60 EMA on the 5 minute chart turned the ES down 3 times now. It's currently at 1311.75 and it needs to be pushed through to get a run to test this morning's highs

Jan 27, 2012 12:51:53 PM EST
mike: 1309..50 has been holding as a pivotal support. 1310.50 has been hard to get over so a very of that 1309 .50 could start and move two 1208 again

Jan 27, 2012 1:01:21 PM EST
mike: look for 1306-1305.50, should be tested if they stay under 1309 .50

Jan 27, 2012 1:09:15 PM EST
mike: triple bottoms normally don't hold, but this one might be able to mark a low if they get over 1310.50, and don't quickly turn right back down. Could it be rally to test 1314 if they break over 1310.50, and then hold over 1310 on a pullback. Need a push over that resistance to get going on the upside

Jan 27, 2012 1:24:17 PM EST
mike: Need a push over 1311 to finally get over the 60 EMA on the five-minute chart, its fifth test of that today within a few ticks

Jan 27, 2012 1:41:50 PM EST
mike: 1311 was finally pushed through and 1312.50 almost reached. a pullback needs to hold at about 1310.50 at the furthest to keep this heading up towards 1315 area

Jan 27, 2012 1:51:38 PM EST
mike: stall out, most push through 1312.50 in the next few minutes. 1311.00-1310.50 area is support that needs to hold on a pullback

Jan 27, 2012 2:07:15 PM EST
mike: they held at 1311.25 and popped up to 1313.00, that was soundly rejected. that it is telling, not much more upside if any, if so then 1311 area needs to hold and start a bounce right away

Jan 27, 2012 2:15:37 PM EST
mike: so far they held 1310.50 and bounced a bit. If there is one more push higher it will set up a shorting opportunity. I'm not crazy about being a buyer near the support the way that 1313 was rejected tells me that there is good supply just above

Jan 27, 2012 2:39:48 PM EST
mike: it looks like a lot of folks left for the weekend. The market is very dull, there has been some good moves this week, so it might not be a bad idea. I will probably be cutting out a bit early myself. FYI: in 4-6 weeks from now I'm going to be adding charts (just my main screen) and some occasional audio commentary.. those who are current members when this begins can be a charter member, and at least get a discount on a few other things we might be rolling out before spring arrives. Let's hope things work out so this can begin by the end of next month, sooner if at all possible. This looks like it wants to go to test the high, watch for rejection if they get there or just above. The 1315.00-1315. 50 area should be key resistance to end the week

Jan 27, 2012 3:05:37 PM EST
mike: needs to stay over 1312.50-1312.25 at the lowest if this is going to go for the 1314.25 early high and possibly 1315-1316 area. If they don't fail at that area, then 1318 could be next. Would be surprised to see that area reached however

Jan 27, 2012 3:10:48 PM EST
mike: 1312.50 was the last support for the ES to bounce off of. Unless that is broken this should push on towards 1314.25 and maybe up to that 1315-1316 area

Jan 27, 2012 3:14:31 PM EST
mike: the new high was made. if they come down and break 1312.50, the 2457 on the NQ, then the uptrend could be breaking but the buyers are in control as long as those are held

Jan 27, 2012 3:17:46 PM EST
mike: 1315- 1316 area would be a spot to exit any longs, should be a key resistance. have a great weekend! I'll see you here on Monday morning - take care

 

 

 

Thursday- January 26, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 26, 2012 9:29:08 AM EST
mike: amazing market. the 1325 area is the first support and that needs to hold. If that is broken and not reversed right back then they could be headed to the unchanged level around 1320.50.

Jan 26, 2012 9:31:14 AM EST
mike: opening strength sold, 1327.50 resistance

Jan 26, 2012 9:32:50 AM EST
mike: 1324.50 area needs to turn this back up or we could see 1321

Jan 26, 2012 9:36:46 AM EST
mike: that gap was filled. 1326 needs cleared and held to get this turned up, otherwise 1321 area as possible

Jan 26, 2012 9:55:34 AM EST
mike: 1324.50 area turned them up and then 1326 was exceeded and then held on a pullback. If this holds over 1326.50 they could get to the 1329-1330 area before backing off

Jan 26, 2012 9:58:51 AM EST
mike: 1329.50 resistance met, Econ data top of the hour, 1327.50 support now

Jan 26, 2012 10:05:20 AM EST
mike: 1329.75 high at resistance and rejected. top is in for now, a bounce will be sold -1326 then the low at 1324.50 must be held or it's a sign of weakness

Jan 26, 2012 10:10:03 AM EST
mike: that should be about it for the bounce. 1328 would need to be cleared and held to get one more push higher, only to be sold again

Jan 26, 2012 10:19:19 AM EST
mike: so far they've been able to say over 1324.50. If they hold that area today, it could set up a bearish pattern for a top. It's the NQ that's keeping the market up. If that turns weak then the ES should really get hit with more selling

Jan 26, 2012 10:20:30 AM EST
mike: so far the NQ has a double top at resistance, the market is in bearish mode off over the 1329.75 top at resistance

Jan 26, 2012 10:25:01 AM EST
mike: 1321-1320.50 area is next support. A bounce back should have trouble getting over 1325.25 area

Jan 26, 2012 10:30:23 AM EST
mike: we could get a bounce from down here, but it should fail under 1325.25 area at the most the way this is looking

Jan 26, 2012 10:35:47 AM EST
mike: avoid longs and just look for shorting opportunities. 1320.50 area needs held or longer timeframe trends rollover

Jan 26, 2012 10:40:37 AM EST
mike: 1320.50 the low so far. the biggest intraday pullback this month has been 13 points if I recall correctly. That would be 1316 area on the ES, and the 1315 area is my major transition area today. They could trade down to that area before a decent bounce can occur

Jan 26, 2012 10:48:50 AM EST
mike: 1320 was the low of yesterday closing range. The NQ double top at resistance was strongly reversed and that was a help pushing the ES lower. 1321.50-1322.25 area would need to be cleared and held to take some pressure off. 1316-1315 area should be a good target for this move down

Jan 26, 2012 11:01:25 AM EST
mike: i need to be away for 15 min

Jan 26, 2012 11:23:57 AM EST
mike: 1318 was a logical spot for a bounce, but they still need to push over 1321.25and stick on a pullback to get a bounce going. Still in trouble otherwise.

Jan 26, 2012 11:40:29 AM EST
mike: after the first 20-40 minutes of trading, if in a down trend use the updated resistance to sell against. If in an uptrend and use the updated support to buy against. That is the best way to use these dynamic areas for trade setups. Hopefully the other instructions make sense as they are spelled out. you should have received an article on how to best use the tradestalker service when you signed up. please give that another look. we will be refining that soon although it's pretty much all inclusive as it is. back to the market here, the downside stalled out and can have a countertrend bounce if the 1321.25 is cleared. the 1319.50 level needs to to be broken to get that move towards 1316-1315 area

Jan 26, 2012 11:56:31 AM EST
mike: 1321.25 was the bounce high and 1319.50 was broken but no acceleration lower. but Still need to push over 1321.25 to try to get upside going

Jan 26, 2012 12:01:11 PM EST
mike: if this push lower should take out the low and not quickly reverse they will try for 1316-1315. It should stay under pressure as long as they stay under 1321 .25 area

Jan 26, 2012 12:14:10 PM EST
mike: a double bottom attempt due to a small pop on the NQ. If they break here the overnight low was that 1315.75, and that adds to the cluster at the 1316-1315 area. That is the short-term transition area and if broken then a top at the 1329.75 resistance level should be confirmed. If they rally off of that area then the market would have a chance to rally back-1321.25 area would be good resistance then on a bounce

Jan 26, 2012 12:18:26 PM EST
mike: a bounce off of that support area, if it holds, would have good resistance at 1318.50-1319 .00 area

Jan 26, 2012 12:40:52 PM EST
mike: a bounce off of that key support, that's a spot to cover shorts taken from near the early high at resistance, or even the 1321 area. We could have a low and at that area. So far the bounce has stopped one tick below the 1318.50-1319 new resistance. a turn down and get them to test the low. But if that is pushed through, then a rally up to 1320 .50 area or higher likely

Jan 26, 2012 12:51:14 PM EST
mike: they backed off from updating resistance but the NQ drop didn't effect the ES much so we could get a rally from above the 1316- 1315 major area. It will have trouble holding at higher levels however. I need a quick break, will be back in about 10-15 minutes,

Jan 26, 2012 1:10:11 PM EST
mike: a decent bounce but it's failing under 1321, a pullback needs to hold 1318.50 at the lowest or this bounce can be over

Jan 26, 2012 1:29:11 PM EST
mike: they're at a crossroad here. 1318.50 is holding, but the bounce failed to clear 1321. 25 resistance. Need to break this range to get another move going. a break of 1318.50 could get the ball rolling to test 1316-1315 again

Jan 26, 2012 1:31:27 PM EST
mike: the bounce failed just under 1321 and this pullback could go down to test 1316-1315 key area if there is not a good bounce off of the 1318 level here and take out 1319.50 on the upside

Jan 26, 2012 1:39:32 PM EST
mike: if you are short from around the 1329.75 reversal at resistance or the 1320-21 area that was resistance, be sure to lock in some profit down here and trail stop on a remainder. 1321 shouldn't be broken now

Jan 26, 2012 1:41:39 PM EST
mike: 1315 .00 lo so far, don't expect a bounce to stick, it should set up another shorting opportunity if that occurs

Jan 26, 2012 1:45:07 PM EST
mike: things have definitely changed, at least for today. a bounce from 1314.25, but as soon as it stalls out the market should head back down again. Watch the 1318 area for resistance

Jan 26, 2012 1:49:30 PM EST
mike: there was a big tick extreme at the low, this could push a bit higher, 1317.50-1318.50 should be the maximum on this bounce however, then another pullback

Jan 26, 2012 2:15:10 PM EST
mike: the bounce failed just under 1317 and a small pullback just held the 1315 area again. This needs to rally up to around 1318 and not stall out, but instead get over that with some oomph and then hold on a pullback. That's the only way I can see to dig out of this hole. I am trusting the 1329.75 resistance as a trading top though. 1320.50-1321.25 area is the key resistance if they can get over 1318

Jan 26, 2012 2:21:23 PM EST
mike: 1311.75 is the next support area and we could see that the way this is acting

Jan 26, 2012 2:25:14 PM EST
mike: 1311.75 just messed so far, 1314.75 as resistance area on a bounce

Jan 26, 2012 2:31:32 PM EST
mike: it's been a trend down move after the earlier ally up to 1329.75 resistance. The bounces have been very lethargic, no power behind them, and just the opposite of what we have been getting on rally days. this bounce up to 1314.50 is one of the strongest moves up so far. They will need to get over 1314.75 and hold that level to take some of the pressure off and possibly get the market out of trend down mode

Jan 26, 2012 2:42:03 PM EST
mike: the bounce got to 1315 and promptly dropped 2 points pretty fast at 1313. 10 down day continues unless 1315 is exceeded and then held to make a transition back up

Jan 26, 2012 2:53:46 PM EST
mike: a small bubble bottom is in place, the ES tested 1315. A pullback needs to stay over 1313.50 in order to keep double bottom in place

Jan 26, 2012 3:01:22 PM EST
mike: just stay with selling bounces. The NQ would need to get back over 2452 and hold that on a pullback in the ES would need to get back over 1315.50-1316.00 area. Otherwise this will stay in trend down mode until the last 30 minutes at the least

Jan 26, 2012 3:15:21 PM EST
mike: looks like some short covering off the low. 1315.50-1316.00 on the ES and the 2452 area on the NQ should be the key resistance and of day.

Jan 26, 2012 3:35:37 PM EST
mike: so far the low is just one tick under the 1309.50 support. The 1308 area would be next support. 1305.50 area would be next if broken. Should be some resistance around 1311.50-1312 at the highest that this is going to stay trend down and to close. The high was made about 30 minutes into trading, the low should be in with 30 minutes left in stock trading. Gap days that are trend days often have that characteristic.

Jan 26, 2012 3:35:48 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day!

Jan 26, 2012 3:40:34 PM EST
mike:  http://www.tradestalker.com/finding-support-and-resistance.htm if you want to learn how I go about getting support and resistance each night

 

 

 

Tuesday- January 24, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 24, 2012 9:31:47 AM EST
mike: this could be a small gap down open, 1305.25 is yesterday's low and getting there would fill the gap on the daily chart. I have almost no interest in buying this market up here at this time the way my indicators look. staying with shorts on bounces. Still in the swing trade with the 1300.50 area for a target. Put options are still cheap with the VIX so low. Tomorrow is a weird Fed day and I expect that will mark a top if we don't already have one in place at 1318 (as I suspect is it is a short-term top)

Jan 24, 2012 9:41:57 AM EST
mike: 1300.50 area could be reached if they stay under 1303 and that could give a bounce but would need to see a reversal. Resistance is at 1305.25 area.

Jan 24, 2012 9:50:21 AM EST
mike: 1303.50 is pivotal early here, if that is held then 1305.25 could be seen on this bounce

Jan 24, 2012 9:52:09 AM EST
mike: that 1304.50-1305.25 it is good early resistance, it needs clear and held on a pullback to avoid a better drop

Jan 24, 2012 10:00:45 AM EST
mike: 1304.50-1305.25 area was rejected and should see a new low in 1303 not held

Jan 24, 2012 10:03:17 AM EST
mike: 1303 was instantly reversed. For now there's no damage done unless that is broken

Jan 24, 2012 10:05:34 AM EST
mike: 1307.50-1308.00 should be as far as a bounce goes before another turn down. Need to hold over 1304.50 area to keep this uptrend

Jan 24, 2012 10:13:05 AM EST
mike: 1304.50 held so far so there it is a chance to get to 1307.50-1308 area before turning back down. 1304.50 area is key now if tested

Jan 24, 2012 10:22:23 AM EST
mike: we should get a drop from up here, especially if one more pop up to 1307.50-1308 and then it turned out. some trouble especially if no bounce from 1305-1304.50

Jan 24, 2012 10:27:28 AM EST
mike: stall out and now 1304.75 should be seen at the least

Jan 24, 2012 10:37:46 AM EST
mike: 1304.50 held and gave a bounce, that 1304.50 level is key support now. Should be a pivotal area this morning. 1307.50-1308.25 is resistance. If that's pushed through instead of being reversed then 1310.50 could be seen on this bounce

Jan 24, 2012 10:46:55 AM EST
mike: we are at the 1308.25 resistance and a pullback needs to bounce off of 1306.50 to avoid a reversal to the downside. If that level holds then 1310.50 area could be seen on this led up

Jan 24, 2012 10:51:28 AM EST
mike: should pull back here. also keep an eye on the NQ which is stronger this morning. It needs to stay over 2431 on a pullback- along with 1306.50 on the ES- to avoid topping

Jan 24, 2012 11:02:01 AM EST
mike: should have a high place. The ES would need to bounce off of 1306.50 in the same way it did off of 1304.50 to avoid a reversal and keep the upside intact for one more push higher

Jan 24, 2012 11:11:03 AM EST
mike: ES touched 1306.50 and the NQ reacted off of its 2431 level. Those are pivotal to keep the upside going. they should top out in here but if they make a run and hold 1308.25, then the 1310.50 is possible \ \

Jan 24, 2012 11:16:48 AM EST
mike: one more push up to 1310.50-1311 area it is still possible, then should see a pullback. The 1308-1307.50 area should hold on a pullback to keep the upside going. 1306.50 is pivotal area on a deeper pullback. I'll be back in about 15 minutes

Jan 24, 2012 11:35:27 AM EST
mike: the market has been in a steady uptrend, holding that the dynamic support to the tick on the 2 point pullbacks. It's acting tired and needs to stay over 1309 or the trends could be rolling over. Otherwise it's still in bullish mode

Jan 24, 2012 11:38:44 AM EST
mike: a bounce will be sold into now, that should be a top for a decent pullback, 1306.50 still a key area and could be tested

Jan 24, 2012 11:47:00 AM EST
mike: the ES broke a channel on most all intraday time frames.1308 as new transition area if broken. 1309-1309.50 area should be resistance on a bounce attempt if going to make a top up here

Jan 24, 2012 12:06:58 PM EST
mike: need to stay over 1308 to keep the upside going to 1309.50 area, where there should be some resistance

Jan 24, 2012 12:13:15 PM EST
mike: the market is moving like it's swimming in bubblegum up here. 1308.50 meets to hold or they can go down to tests 1306.50

Jan 24, 2012 12:26:42 PM EST
mike: very slow and thin conditions. we have a top in place at the 1309.25-1309.75 zone. pullback needs to hold at 1306.75 to avoid a deeper pullback, possibly back to 1304.50 area if there is no quick snap back from 1306.75 area

Jan 24, 2012 12:45:16 PM EST
mike: we have been in a 2.50 point range for more than an hour. The 1309-1309.50 area has been sold several times and is a lid on this rally, if they go under 1308 and don't turn right back up instantly then we are going to test 1306.50 and that should be key to hold on the market gets itself into some trouble

Jan 24, 2012 12:54:31 PM EST
mike: turned right back up from 1307.50, the bottom of this little range we are stuck in. It's looking like they can run up to the 1310.50-1311.00 area if a push over 1309 can hold, instead of turning right back down. Tough call in here, this has been for scalping only but we could get a run-up soon on a hold over 1309

Jan 24, 2012 1:04:24 PM EST
mike: a test of the top of the range was rejected, but no damage done as long as the ES can stay over 1308.50. That needs to hold or we go to the bottom of the range

Jan 24, 2012 1:15:25 PM EST
mike: this "action" will be better tomorrow or later today. We have the State of the Union address tonight, and then tomorrow at 12:30 PM the Fed release (used to always be around 2:15 PM) and they are doing some other things for the first time ever. So for now the market is at a standstill. A small position in some put options is not a bad idea. The ES needs to get back over that 1314 area to become strong and not so vulnerable again. This afternoon that NQ has been weaker and could start a move to the downside

Jan 24, 2012 1:20:27 PM EST
mike: a drop to 1306.50 in the cards, would need to see a good bounce from their button it will likely fail

Jan 24, 2012 1:24:05 PM EST
mike: resistance now at 1308.25 area and should be sold if reached. 1309 area shouldn't be exceeded

Jan 24, 2012 1:44:11 PM EST
mike: the ES bounced off the that 1306.50 support from this morning. should be okay if it's not broken. Resistance on the ES at 1307.75 area and around 2427area on the NQ both it taken out

Jan 24, 2012 2:11:15 PM EST
mike: the ES and NQ both took out that resistance and getting a decent bounce. 1309.75 is the top of that "old" range and high for the day and needs to push through if 1308.50 can hold it will have a chance. If not then back to 1307.75 area

Jan 24, 2012 2:19:34 PM EST
mike: 1308.50 held and now they can push towards a new high and test 1310.50-watch the NQ as it needs to get going on the upside from here or will have a failure

Jan 24, 2012 2:25:37 PM EST
mike: 1308 area still a key support. A pop up to 1310.50 still possible. I have to step away for about 10 minutes.

Jan 24, 2012 2:41:08 PM EST
mike: this should be bullish as long as the 1309 area is held now

Jan 24, 2012 2:42:08 PM EST
mike: they could back off from 1310.50-1311 area but that should stay over 1309 if the market is going to stay strong this afternoon

Jan 24, 2012 3:12:21 PM EST
mike: small ranges since around 11:30 AM. Makes it kind of tough to make a call but the NQ looks like it's rolling over. We didn't have the early support at 1304.50 and then 1306.50 was support in the morning and this afternoon's pullback. The 1310.50 resistance was missed by 1 tick. Not a bad day despite the small range. I don't expect much in the last hour. They will be okay as long as 1308 is held

Jan 24, 2012 3:37:39 PM EST
mike: the only index worth scalping is the NQ. But ovoid this otherwise. If 1309.15 is held this could push up to 1311.50 but not sure if that can be pulled off.

Jan 24, 2012 3:41:16 PM EST
mike: Just see this as must hold 1308.25. The NQ could help pull the ES down there

Jan 24, 2012 3:45:31 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day. See you tomorrow morning

 

 

 

Monday- January 23, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 23, 2012 9:21:25 AM EST
mike: we may not get to the 1313-1315 area as they have reached it already pre-open. But if they get back up there then it should set up a good shorting opportunity, for a swing trade, at least for starting to build a position.

Jan 23, 2012 9:36:57 AM EST
mike: trend that doesn't reverse until they break 1309.50 area, but a move to the 1313.50-1315.00 area that stalls or shows rejection could be the start of a decent pullback

Jan 23, 2012 9:38:32 AM EST
mike: that could be a high-1311.50 small support to break

Jan 23, 2012 9:45:23 AM EST
mike: ES in the key area. 1312-1311.50 area will now need to be broken to put a dent in the up trend. If they don't reverse from 1315 then it's possible to go on up to 1318 before backing off

Jan 23, 2012 9:51:03 AM EST
mike: a break back under 1313.50 break this uptrend

Jan 23, 2012 9:54:55 AM EST
mike: the move is almost parabolic and should have a pullback from here, 1318 at the highest. Keep an eye on the NQ for its turn first

Jan 23, 2012 10:03:09 AM EST
mike: 1318 should be some resistance. But market stronger than anticipated. 1316-1315.50 is now trend support that needs to hold on pullback

Jan 23, 2012 10:10:05 AM EST
mike: 1318.00 was touched, now need a break under 1316.25-1315.50 to have a break of this strong uptrend

Jan 23, 2012 10:20:40 AM EST
mike: 1318 area trying to hold us back, 1316.25-1315.50 is a key area for a reversal of the trend up move, it's too parabolic/straight up to not have a decent pullback

Jan 23, 2012 10:29:52 AM EST
mike: the pullback held in the support zone so far, but a high should be in place at 1318.25, a pop up from here should be sold into. If they take out the high then 1320.50-1322.00 area is the next resistance and that shouldn't be exceeded today

Jan 23, 2012 10:38:54 AM EST
mike: 1315.50 dynamic support the pullback low so far. If no gusto on a bounce, then we could have a sharper break to the downside. 1314.25-1313.50 area would be next dynamic support if 1315.50 is broken

Jan 23, 2012 11:03:30 AM EST
mike: 1314.25-1313.50 dynamic support area held on the pullback. Could see one more little push higher as long as that holds but it shouldn't get over 1316.25 and hold over that level if going to continue to inch lower. If that is cleared/held then a test of the high possible but it should stick.

Jan 23, 2012 11:10:56 AM EST
mike: a top should be in at 1318.25 now and 1315.50 area the Key resistance if they bounce. 1309.50 key support area to breakthrough

Jan 23, 2012 11:18:32 AM EST
mike: 1314.25-1315.25 area should not be exceeded on a bounce. The market appears to be in trouble for the first time in quite a while. If there is a pullback of more than 8 points it will break bigger picture symmetry.that 1309.75-1309.00 area is a very key spot now and a broken then the market will have more proof of a high in place at least short-term

Jan 23, 2012 11:38:35 AM EST
mike: we should have one more push from 1313. 25 to tests 1309.50 area. A break of that will put a big Dent in the bullish trend

Jan 23, 2012 11:45:18 AM EST
mike: if you have been short consider taking some profit here at 1309 and trail a stop on the rest.

Jan 23, 2012 11:47:17 AM EST
mike: 1313.25-1314.25 is a pivotal resistance if there is a decent bounce from down here. A move down to 1308-1307.50 would need to be quickly reversed back up to avoid more damage but a top should be in place

Jan 23, 2012 12:00:22 PM EST
mike: they sold off to test the initial support and a bounce needs to get over 1311.75-1312.25 to break the downside trend. If they take out that support than 1304.50 area would be the next key area below. the market has been able to come back with a rally all month so far. However, Short side still the better odds on bounces has a high should be in place at the 1318 resistance. If in a swing trade per this morning's comment that is the stop for now.

Jan 23, 2012 12:01:43 PM EST
mike: market is in trouble if it stays under 1309.50, late buyers and profit takers trapped above. I will be back in about 15 minutes

Jan 23, 2012 12:19:45 PM EST
mike: the market is trying to get its footing, a bounce should fail at 1308 area to keep this strongly bearish

Jan 23, 2012 12:46:16 PM EST
mike: on a bigger picture basis, the pattern on the daily chart (close only chart) was bearish coming into today, as it flattened out- and with the narrow ranges at a high showing stalling action. The sentiment was overly bullish, similar to the high last July. The VIX also has plunged to the low 18s, and with it turning up today I could get additional sell signals. In addition the short-term internal gauges where at overbought extremes. The 1315 was a key resistance, but there was only a small pullback before one last push up to the 1318 resistance where it reversed a parabolic move up.. there was a 13 point pullback/drop and that broke the pullback symmetry from the last few weeks. so it looks like a top of some sort should be in place. This bounce off of the 1305.25 level barely kept the ES from having an "outside day" with a higher high than on Friday. It needs to break 1304.75 to have an outside day. The ES is now toying with 1308 and should fail here if there's going to be a break lower to take out 1304.75. A push over 1308.25 could get this to test 1309.50 which is looking like it might be a pivotal area.

Jan 23, 2012 1:05:28 PM EST
mike: we could see a test of the low or a bit lower to 1304.50 area, but only if 1307 is broken. The resistance I'm looking at is at 1309.50, which was prior support. If they get through that area then 1311.50 area would be the next resistance to keep this still in bearish mode

Jan 23, 2012 1:29:32 PM EST
mike: the low was made just after noon, a countertrend bounce often occurs. things have slowed down but the move up failed just under 1309 50 so far. If still should be okay for now as long as 1307.50 area is held, and a test of 1311.50 is possible. If it is broken then we could test the 1304.50 area.

Jan 23, 2012 1:49:02 PM EST
mike: this can continue to creep higher as long as 1308.75 is not broken. If they break that then this move could be over

Jan 23, 2012 2:12:35 PM EST
mike: 1309 held in the ES made it to 1311.00 so far in that might be it the way this is acting up here so careful on the long side

Jan 23, 2012 2:13:29 PM EST
mike: especially if 1309.50 broken and not quickly reversed back up. The NQ has good resistance around 2435 where it just topped

Jan 23, 2012 2:16:16 PM EST
mike: 1309.50-1309.00 should be a pivotal area, if broken then this uptrend begins to break down

Jan 23, 2012 2:41:40 PM EST
mike: I still feel that the 1318 should be a top of some sort, however so far the market is trying to do as it has all month and make a lunch time low (or an early low, both have happened) and then put together a good rally. the 1311.50 it is the dynamic resistance and the ES has been up here at 1311 three times and backed off. but we still need to break 1309 pivotal area- it has held on two pullbacks. 1309 still needs to break to give a sign of weakness now

Jan 23, 2012 2:51:09 PM EST
mike: 1309-1309.50 area should be resistance now, shouldn't be broken by months to keep this rolling over

Jan 23, 2012 2:59:00 PM EST
mike: the market certainly caught a bid coming off of 1308. It looks like a pullback that holds around 1309 would be a buy. 1308.00-1307.50 support

Jan 23, 2012 3:03:48 PM EST
mike: 1310 should hold to keep this going on the upside now

Jan 23, 2012 3:06:01 PM EST
mike: should be selling around 1312.50-1313.25 area and then another pullback

Jan 23, 2012 3:07:57 PM EST
mike: 1311 area needs to hold or a rally that follows will fail

Jan 23, 2012 3:11:07 PM EST
mike: a small bounce from 1311 so far and that must hold. 1312.50 was rejected and that 1312.50-1313.25 zone is still a key resistance-shouldn't be cleared and held if we have a top in place

Jan 23, 2012 3:21:26 PM EST
mike: 1311.00 was held in so far they reached 1313.00. that could be a high for this bounce. The 1311.00-1310.50is key to say over on the next pullback

Jan 23, 2012 3:34:23 PM EST
mike: so far support held and so did the 1312.50-1313.25 resistance area. last 30 minutes and they need to stay over 1311.50 to avoid a late drop

Jan 23, 2012 3:38:12 PM EST
mike: if they get a squeeze over 1313.25, the next resistance is at 1315.50-1316.25. That is a minor area. I still think that 1313.25 level shouldn't be exceeded/held if there is a top in at the 1318 resistance area. Have a good rest of the day. I'll see you there tomorrow close to 9:45 AM

 

 

Thursday- January 19, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 19, 2012 9:28:45 AM EST
mike: I will be away from this PC for the first 30 minutes. No change from the nightly update, so use that as the early trading plan. 1304.25-1303.50 area is first support area

Jan 19, 2012 9:42:08 AM EST
mike: they failed just under 1308.50-1309.25 resistance and that was also the pre-open high area. It should be hard to get through. A test of 1304 area should occur this morning

Jan 19, 2012 9:44:05 AM EST
mike: the NQ needs to push under 2430 and hold, not quickly reverse, to put pressure on. I'll be back in about 15 minutes or so

Jan 19, 2012 10:05:00 AM EST
mike: a rejection of the 1308.50-1309.25 resistance area on the Philly Fed release and now that gap filled on the daily chart at 1304.25. Staying under 1305.50-1306.00 should keep pressure on

Jan 19, 2012 10:13:11 AM EST
mike: 1305.50-1306.25 area should be good resistance on a bounce if the market is going to go lower. If that's pushed through instead then a move up to test the high is possible

Jan 19, 2012 10:24:38 AM EST
mike: that resistance at 1308.50-1309.25 area is still valid. If going to pull back again then that should be rejected-actually should turn down from this 1307 if going lower. pullback should hold 1305.50 area to avoid another test of low

Jan 19, 2012 10:43:04 AM EST
mike: The 1306 -1305.50 area should be pivotal and if broken and not quickly turned back up then the move could be rolling over. no damage done yet unless that happens

Jan 19, 2012 10:54:32 AM EST
mike: The 1312.50-1315.00 has a band of resistance that should be very strong and probably a top if reached. Should pull back from up here, but no damage done unless 1308-1307.50 area is broken

Jan 19, 2012 10:59:45 AM EST
mike: should have a high in place for now. the NQ needs to hold around 2436 to avoid some trouble over there

Jan 19, 2012 11:08:11 AM EST
mike: both 1307.50 and 2436 level on the NQ were held so far, so no damage done-- yet. Upside should be limited from here. Need to get over 1309 and hold over that to have a shot at going for that major resistance up at 1312.50-1315.00 area- if they do get up there, then that will be the first good odds place to short the market.

Jan 19, 2012 11:25:05 AM EST
mike: a small double top at 1309.75. just broken- need to stay over 1308.50 to push through towards 1312.50-1315.00 major area. up here. Couldn't see some pullback, but Market is bullish above 1307.50 area for now

Jan 19, 2012 11:41:19 AM EST
mike: they aren't too far from going to the 1312.50 level which is the bottom of the 1312.50-1315.00 resistance area above. That might not be seen for a while in 1309.50 isn't held. the market is acting a bit tentative up here but can grind higher only if 1309.50 area is defended.

Jan 19, 2012 11:51:14 AM EST
mike: the new highs should be sold but as long as the pullback is a small one of just 1.50-2.00 points that trend can continue. 1309.50 it is still key to stay over

Jan 19, 2012 11:57:41 AM EST
mike: keep and eye on the NQ. It needs to stay over 2438.50 on a pullback on the market will be changing its character on that index, and it has been the leader on the way up. Also expect the pops to be sold especially a token hire high. I will be back in about 15 minutes

Jan 19, 2012 12:23:16 PM EST
mike: toppy action at the moment. The tests of the high are being rejected, upside obviously limited at this time so keep looking to short on the pop-ups and scalp out on the following pullback. if 1309.50 is broken by much and not quickly reversed that things are changing. 2439 area on the NQ needs to hold over there

Jan 19, 2012 12:36:00 PM EST
mike: the pullback quickly reverse up off 1309 and the NQ bounced off of its 2439 support. Even more important now to say over. The Dow cash is now back under 12,600 and needs to be cleared and held also, it's now a resistance. Careful on longs as it looks like the 1212.50-1215.00 area might not be seen today. That would be the ideal shoring area if it was reached in the market stall out

Jan 19, 2012 12:56:55 PM EST
mike: this could be just a lunchtime pullback, and then try for the 1312.50-1315.00 area. Would need to get back over 1309.50-1310 .00 area and then hold on a small pullback.-the 1309 area would be support then

Jan 19, 2012 1:00:09 PM EST
mike: tick extreme giving a small dip from here

Jan 19, 2012 1:10:18 PM EST
mike: that small dip held at 1309 and now back to test the high. If this comes back down to 1309.75 area that should hold if we're on our way to 1312.50-1315 area. I still think that it is in the cards the way this daily chart is looking

Jan 19, 2012 1:45:09 PM EST
mike: sorry I haven't had much to say. The market is not volatile and has been for the most part steadily grinding higher towards the 1312.50-1315.00 area. That could be put on hold if they don't back down and break 1308. The token new high at 1311.50 was sold but still just a shallow pullback. Staying over 1310 keeps a move to that key area in gear.

Jan 19, 2012 2:22:00 PM EST
mike: the market is struggling to avoid "profit-taking" or long covering move from up here. we should get that one last push to the upside if this pullback can stay over 1309 at the worst. if that's broken, then the 1308 area is now a key area to stay over, not break and hold, or it could become a transition zone to a downtrend

Jan 19, 2012 2:38:30 PM EST
mike: I think this pullback has gone a bit too far and that the next bounce is a shorting opportunity. 1310 area should be good resistance. The NQ is pretty much going to lead any move, that should have resistance around 2439

Jan 19, 2012 2:56:10 PM EST
mike: should get a bounce here, but need to get over 1309.50 and hold above that area to avoid another drop, and have a chance for one last move to the upside. that should be a key resistance. If that's pushed through then expect that move, if we get it, to be sold around today's high, or just a bit above that there is a better bounce than expected today

Jan 19, 2012 3:07:51 PM EST
mike: if this is going to be a last hour rally than a pullback from 1309.50-1310 area needs to hold no lower than 1308.50.

Jan 19, 2012 3:19:50 PM EST
mike: the first pullback from 1309.50-1310 resistance held just above the 1308.50 pullback support. That needs to hold in push over 1310 pretty soon here to get one more run up

Jan 19, 2012 3:28:06 PM EST
mike: a decent bounce from just over 1308.50. 1309.50 is now support that needs to hold to keep the rally alive and push through 1311 or at the least touch that area

Jan 19, 2012 3:37:53 PM EST
mike: holding 1309.50 on that pullback, it keeps the bounce alive but this needs some help it get up to the 1312.50-1315.00 big resistance.

Jan 19, 2012 3:38:35 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Wednesday- January 18, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 18, 2012 9:31:13 AM EST
mike: starting a little late this morning. Look for a short around 1293 if reached-should be a sell a bounce market unless that's cleared and held

Jan 18, 2012 9:41:48 AM EST
mike: 1289-needs to get over that area that hold to try to get out of potential trouble

Jan 18, 2012 9:51:05 AM EST
mike: the NQ rallied to tests its initial resistance around 2400 and turned back. Keep an eye on that. Right now the ES needs to stay over 1289.50 to keep its trend and go to 1293 area

Jan 18, 2012 9:56:11 AM EST
mike: they drop to 1292 area it is likely, needs to hold

Jan 18, 2012 10:02:37 AM EST
mike: 1293area needs to hold on a pullback to keep this trend going

Jan 18, 2012 10:04:01 AM EST
mike: the one minute chart set up per the e-book is getting trend guidance most of the way up

Jan 18, 2012 10:06:17 AM EST
mike: should get that countertrend move in the first 20-40 minutes from that high

Jan 18, 2012 10:22:48 AM EST
mike: the little pullback held at 1293.75 and NQ is able to hold over 2400-both of those are now key support morning. Some resistance around 1297 then the key area around 1299 and then an outside chance at 1302

Jan 18, 2012 10:25:59 AM EST
mike: a pullback to 1295.50-1295.00 area will need to hold

Jan 18, 2012 10:33:56 AM EST
mike: this can get to 1299 as long as 1296.50-1295.75 area is held. should see some selling there. That support area should be important support now on a pullback. Trend can break if not held

Jan 18, 2012 10:46:51 AM EST
mike: 1296.25 was a pullback low so far. It will be pullback time soon if much more weakness-or there is no push to a higher high soon. NQ needs to stay over 2406-2405 area and ES over 1295.50

Jan 18, 2012 10:55:39 AM EST
mike: 1295.50 was touched and they turn right up slowly. The NQ also held its support. need to push on through 1299 on this move. But if those are broken then we will have high in place for a while and test the 1294 area

Jan 18, 2012 11:05:37 AM EST
mike: a failed attempt to push up to a higher high is quite possible as the market is struggling as it eyeballs that resistance. Need the ES to push over 1298 and stick to get a squeeze going and try for 1300 or possibly 1302

Jan 18, 2012 11:17:05 AM EST
mike: 25 minutes trading between 1298.50 and 1295.50 and then it should give a move towards 1300 or 1302 if broken on the top side. It doesn't look like it wants to at the moment so a break below 1295.50 shake this up a bit with 1294 for the target/support on the down side

Jan 18, 2012 11:27:27 AM EST
mike: a bounce from that key support here. must hold areas now. it could fail -unless it's a strong move up that doesn't hesitate to push through 1298- this action doesn't look like it wants to do that yet

Jan 18, 2012 11:33:00 AM EST
mike: it has turned into a choppy sideways cigar pattern. need to get over 1297 level and hold to try to get upside going

Jan 18, 2012 11:35:10 AM EST
mike: the NQ has been a better vehicle to trade so far today. It's stronger leading the move higher. 2406 is a key support there

Jan 18, 2012 11:35:37 AM EST
mike: next pop up should set up a short

Jan 18, 2012 11:39:57 AM EST
mike: needs to bounce off of 1294 area to avoid a bigger break. Still a high should be in place for now and a bounce should fail. 1296- 1296.50 area should be sold and going lower.

Jan 18, 2012 11:48:34 AM EST
mike: 1296.25 is the bounce high so far and that should be about as far as a bounce should go if going lower to break the 1294 level. 1294-1293.50 new support to break if the trend is going to turn back down. I'll be back in about 10 minutes

Jan 18, 2012 12:05:14 PM EST
mike: they managed to stay over the 1294 level on the ES and the 2406-2405 on the NQ. A break of those levels should bring on a decent pullback but not unless both are broken.

Jan 18, 2012 12:07:11 PM EST
mike: I will be in and out (mostly out) for the next 45 minutes or so. My apologies. I will do my best to update when possible. Should be back to normal by around 1 PM

Jan 18, 2012 12:21:20 PM EST
mike: 1296 now needs to hold as support or the trend will change

Jan 18, 2012 12:25:00 PM EST
mike: 1302 could be seen now after a shallow pullback

Jan 18, 2012 12:51:54 PM EST
mike: pushed over 1300 and needs to hang in here and stay over 1299.50 it looks it's going to 1302

Jan 18, 2012 12:52:58 PM EST
mike: NQ still leading and it needs to stay over 2315 now-it has been a better trading vehicle today

Jan 18, 2012 1:00:50 PM EST
mike: so far held 1299.75 and that isn't broken in the NQ stays over 2417 area the ES could get to that 1302 area and that should be a key area

Jan 18, 2012 1:10:52 PM EST
mike: there must be a pretty good sellers just above. A pullback needs to stay over 1298.50-1297.50 which is a transition area otherwise the market begins to change

Jan 18, 2012 1:27:21 PM EST
mike: so far it's able to hold over 1298.50 all trends are still up and the NQ should lead this higher if 1302 area is going to be tested today. it's thin and dull but 1302 is still possible as long as support holds. If broken than the 1296.25 area is now support

Jan 18, 2012 1:40:55 PM EST
mike: they missed the 1302.00 level by 3 ticks so far and that could be it for awhile if there is a break under 1298.75

Jan 18, 2012 1:43:34 PM EST
mike: I think a hold over 1300 will be needed to get to 1302. If 1300 is broken and not quickly reversed then they test or break of 1298.75it is possible

Jan 18, 2012 1:55:47 PM EST
mike: a bounce back to 1299.50- 1300.00 area should be sold if that's reached in the move stalls out

Jan 18, 2012 2:13:26 PM EST
mike: that 1301.25 area should be hard to get over and stay over. Should see some selling if reached. Key support now at 1298.25- 1297.50 area and then 1296.25. If they pushed through 1302 and don't reverse/pull back then it could go for 1308 area but doubt that today

Jan 18, 2012 2:31:00 PM EST
mike: there is 1302 and now will need to stay over 1300 area on this pullback to keep the trend up day intact

Jan 18, 2012 2:57:29 PM EST
mike: the pullback off of 1302 turned up from 1299.75 and we got another push higher. If they get back up there to test or slightly break 1302 expect that to be sold. If they drop down to 1299.50 they won't need to turn right backup like they did from 1299.75 or else they drop down to or through 1298 area would be in the cards

Jan 18, 2012 3:19:40 PM EST
mike: could have a high for today in place for 1301.50 area isn't held

Jan 18, 2012 3:33:10 PM EST
mike: 1304.50-1305.50 area should be a top for the move today. but if that is somehow broken then 1308 it is possible but I like a short and that area-tomorrow shouldn't a trend day and a pullback is is coming on a break under 1302

Jan 18, 2012 3:33:30 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Friday- January 13, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 13, 2012 9:28:52 AM EST
mike: market indicators pointing to a top in this timeframe. It might be in place already, or could come next Tuesday or Wednesday. In any case market should be sold on bounces today. 1286.50 area is a first good resistance

Jan 13, 2012 9:40:26 AM EST
mike: 1278-1277.50 area is a big support at the ES needs to stay over this morning. 1282.50-1283.25 should be pretty the important resistance area -it's bearish under that

Jan 13, 2012 9:51:41 AM EST
mike: 1277.75 low so far- right at the key support and must hold now or else that dynamics have changed. The bounce to 1282 so far in 1282.50 is the key area on top

Jan 13, 2012 9:57:28 AM EST
mike: Michigan sentiment number a good one. the pullback from resistance needs to stay over 1280

Jan 13, 2012 9:58:46 AM EST
mike: 1280 breaks then 1278 could be tested

Jan 13, 2012 10:05:26 AM EST
mike: sellers are in control under 1281 down to the 1278-1277.50 key area

Jan 13, 2012 10:07:58 AM EST
mike: look for 1276.50 area for a small support under this key zone

Jan 13, 2012 10:13:14 AM EST
mike: the 1279.50 area would need to be cleared and held to try to get out of trouble. if they don't bounce from a test of the 1274.00-1272.50 area in the market is in some trouble today

Jan 13, 2012 10:16:11 AM EST
mike: so far this morning there was a rally off of the 1278 area support then a drop from 1282.50 resistance which was key, and now they are holding under 1278. They need to get over that and hold on a pullback to take some pressure off for a bit or could be going for 1274-1272.50 area

Jan 13, 2012 10:23:59 AM EST
mike: 1278 is now the trend down resistance. Market stays in trouble unless that is cleared and held. if short locking in some profit in the 1274- 1272.50

Jan 13, 2012 10:27:46 AM EST
mike: from support to resistance down to a lower support. Good opportunity this morning. The market is obviously in some trouble so far. Resistance at 1278

Jan 13, 2012 10:32:39 AM EST
mike: I don't know what happened to put that in this chat box. Very odd. bounce failed just under 1278 so far. Need to hold 1275.50 if there's going to be a low in place.

Jan 13, 2012 10:50:04 AM EST
mike: they held at 1275.25 but still need to get over 1278 and hold. 1275 is key support for a pullback to hold or else low not in

Jan 13, 2012 11:07:02 AM EST
mike: should see some pullback in the 1282 area is tested again. The 1278-1277.50 is a transition area on the upside now and is key support again on a pullback

Jan 13, 2012 11:12:02 AM EST
mike: a drop down to test 1279.25 area possible here, need a bounce from there or this uptrend could break and take out 1278 in the process

Jan 13, 2012 11:19:50 AM EST
mike: 1279.25 held so far but if broken then we should drop to test the transition area just below 1278 -this keeps an uptrend unless it breaks. Also keep an eye on the NQ. it has a better uptrend. That will have support that's key around 2357

Jan 13, 2012 11:31:05 AM EST
mike: this pattern looks similar to yesterday rally off of its low. It started a lot sooner though. Right now the trend stays upup

Jan 13, 2012 11:31:37 AM EST
mike: unless 1280 is broken

Jan 13, 2012 11:40:02 AM EST
mike: the 1282-1282.75 area should be good resistance. If 1280 breaks now, then it should shake up the market some and give us volatility

Jan 13, 2012 11:49:08 AM EST
mike: I'll be back in about 15 minutes

Jan 13, 2012 12:01:16 PM EST
mike: top should be in.

Jan 13, 2012 12:14:00 PM EST
mike: this stays under pressure unless 1280.58 cleared and held

Jan 13, 2012 12:59:29 PM EST
mike: technical difficulties

Jan 13, 2012 1:00:42 PM EST
mike: with you asap

Jan 13, 2012 1:05:55 PM EST
mike: bounce failed at 1279.50 and that is a good resistance on a bounce, 1278.50 shouldn't be exceeded and held.

Jan 13, 2012 1:10:32 PM EST
mike: I will be in and out over the next 40 minutes or so. This will stay in a bearish mode unless 1279.50-1280.00 area is cleared and held on a pullback

Jan 13, 2012 1:40:34 PM EST
mike: they are quick to come down after a bounce stalls out. Even if there is an uptrend. Right now it's still the 1279-1280 zone that is key. Right now they need to hold this 1276 area or else a move towards 1274 that happen. If a hold and it's possible to go for 1278 or so

Jan 13, 2012 1:50:28 PM EST
mike: watch for support around 1277.50 on a pullback. If they don't fail at the 1279-1280 area, then they could make a move back to test the high, maybe even go for the 1284 area before turning back. But right now 1277.50 should hold it going higher

Jan 13, 2012 2:01:51 PM EST
mike: 1279 is holding and that must stay over that level to avoid going back to test 1277.50.

Jan 13, 2012 2:18:54 PM EST
mike: market is acting bullish again, was able to hold at 1278.50 and turn it back up. But unless they push through 1280.50-1281.00 here pretty soon this can spill under 1279 again.

Jan 13, 2012 2:27:58 PM EST
mike: 1279.50-1279.00 is a key support in the last 90 minutes . Market stays out of trouble unless that's broken. If the high is taken out we could go to 1284

Jan 13, 2012 2:34:15 PM EST
mike: 1280.50 area now needs to hold on a pullback to keep this steady rise in gear. else a reversal can occur

Jan 13, 2012 2:57:38 PM EST
mike: it has slowed down as we go into a three-day weekend. It would take a break back under the 1280-1279 area to turn this down and go for a test of 1276 area or lower. Holding over 1280 will keep the pressure on the upside with buyers in charge and 1284 still possible

Jan 13, 2012 3:07:50 PM EST
mike: this is the third test of the high at 1282.75. Right now it looks like 1281.50-1281.00 is key on a pullback. they need to say over that on a pullback if going to see 1284 area and not make a triple top which is kind of rare

Jan 13, 2012 3:09:32 PM EST
mike: three should see 1284 the way this is looking, but would be careful up there for a pullback from that area

Jan 13, 2012 3:11:23 PM EST
mike: 1282 is now a pivotal area on a pullback. If this is strong could go to 1286 area. The target has been reached, if you have been on the long side it's a place to lock in profits

Jan 13, 2012 3:21:01 PM EST
mike: the 1280-1279 area is the key support on a drop end of day. the 1284 could turn into a high and 1282.50 isn't held.

Jan 13, 2012 3:21:51 PM EST
mike: have a nice long weekend. We'll be ready to go get em on Tuesday morning

 

 

 

Thursday- January 12, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 12, 2012 9:30:47 AM EST
mike: 1288 keys support 1294 area and resistance

Jan 12, 2012 9:34:35 AM EST
mike: it's a short around 1292.25-1293 .00 if there is some rejection

Jan 12, 2012 9:35:16 AM EST
mike: otherwise it needs to break 1290.75 area to begin to turn down

Jan 12, 2012 9:37:08 AM EST
mike: that zone was rejected-vulnerable under 93

Jan 12, 2012 9:41:45 AM EST
mike: if short covered part at 1288.50 or better and tight stop on rest

Jan 12, 2012 9:43:09 AM EST
mike: 1290 area is the first resistance on a bounce

Jan 12, 2012 9:47:55 AM EST
mike: they could bounce a bit from here at 1287 but it shouldn't stick in there is a bounce

Jan 12, 2012 9:51:18 AM EST
mike: 1288.00 -1288.50 area s pivotal early here

Jan 12, 2012 9:58:27 AM EST
mike: could be a top 1288 not held

Jan 12, 2012 10:04:15 AM EST
mike: market will stay bearish unless 1290 it is exceeded. It will take a break and hold under 1288 to put pressure on to test 1285 area

Jan 12, 2012 10:09:54 AM EST
mike: 1285 reached and now a bounce should fail to get over 1288 in the market is in trouble this morning and going lower

Jan 12, 2012 10:18:37 AM EST
mike: the 1287 fixed support coming into the day is now the key resistance that needs broken/held in order to change from trend down mode. A move just under a move 1282 will be next if 1283.25

Jan 12, 2012 10:23:01 AM EST
mike: 1282 was tested, if they stay under 1285 and could be another drop. the 1281.75-1281.25 area it is a key area that needs to be reversed if touched

Jan 12, 2012 10:34:16 AM EST
mike: this is the time of day that often marks reversal points. They tested 1282.50 two times so that could be an early low or else they continue to trend down mode to 1281.25more lower. Move over 1285needed to take some pressure off

Jan 12, 2012 10:44:43 AM EST
mike: 1284.50-1285.00 will need to be cleared and held to try to turn the trend. If 1281 .25 is broken we can see 1278

Jan 12, 2012 10:48:24 AM EST
mike: 80.75 just match yesterday's low it should be broken and give us and outside day. 1283 .50 minor resistance

Jan 12, 2012 11:06:51 AM EST
mike: they need to stay over 1282 .50 to avoid a test of the low. A move over 1285 that holds-not rejected-gets this turned back up

Jan 12, 2012 11:29:42 AM EST
mike: this is Julie...mike will be back on in about 30-40 minutes. We're sorry for any inconvenience. thanks

Jan 12, 2012 12:28:25 PM EST
mike: the market has been grinding higher since pushing through 1285 especially, 1283.50 is the key support now this afternoon, unless the ES comes down to break 1286.50-1286.00 or lower this move higher should continue

Jan 12, 2012 12:44:05 PM EST
mike: 1288 is a good resistance good resistance

Jan 12, 2012 1:14:55 PM EST
mike: browser problem working on it

Jan 12, 2012 1:26:13 PM EST
mike: okay I should be set okay now, fingers crossed. It looks like this 1288 area needs to hold or were headed back towards 1287.50-1287 or lower

Jan 12, 2012 1:27:14 PM EST
mike: 1289 needs cleared/held to avoid pushing lower

Jan 12, 2012 1:37:05 PM EST
mike: 1288 is holding so far but in this cannot get back over 1289 I think that we get another push lower. If they pop up to 1290 instead look for a short there are also

Jan 12, 2012 1:41:56 PM EST
mike: the NQ made a double top in the ES fell short, the NQ is probably an easier short on a bounce. A bounce back to 1288 on the ES is a short and the market gets that far. We then headed down to 1285-1284 before finding decent support

Jan 12, 2012 1:57:35 PM EST
mike: bounce should fail near here or else there could be another push up towards 1289

Jan 12, 2012 2:02:43 PM EST
mike: a test of 1289.50-1290.00 area that stalls out would set up a good odds short. 1288 needs to hold now to get another push higher

Jan 12, 2012 2:12:07 PM EST
mike: they just missed 1289.50. market topped out for now it looks like, NQ been rejected at a good resistance three times now. bounces are shorting opportunities

Jan 12, 2012 2:16:18 PM EST
mike: holding under1288 will keep pressure on

Jan 12, 2012 2:25:14 PM EST
mike: they might make it back up to test 1289 and that should be pretty good resistance. decent buying just over 1286.50 so that needs to hold on the next drop

Jan 12, 2012 2:41:14 PM EST
mike: the market is acting better then then anticipated. A pullback should come but is okay as long as 1289 .00-1288.50 is held

Jan 12, 2012 2:56:01 PM EST
mike: so far the pullback held 1289.50. The NQ is acting a bit weaker off the high. They shouldn't go through those bounce highs by much, if there is going to be a reversal back down by not being able to get over 1291 and hold that level. That looks like the key level on this bounce. The market hasn't been able to hold over 1291 the past few days. If it's cleared and held then I'll run up towards 1295 would be possible

Jan 12, 2012 3:10:42 PM EST
mike: 1289 support held, but the ES backed off 1291 again and that's still key to clear and hold this afternoon to avoid failure up here again. This would be the fourth try in the last 30 minutes to get to that area so it must do it on this attempt if it's going to avoid reversal

Jan 12, 2012 3:33:06 PM EST
mike: the failure again should be it for the rally

Jan 12, 2012 3:45:05 PM EST
mike: they have built good support at 1290.00-1289.50 and for the rest of the day and markets should be bullish unless that area is broken.

Jan 12, 2012 3:47:35 PM EST
mike: watch that area overnight on Globex if it's not broken in the last 15 minutes which is doubtful. have a good rest of your day

 

 

Wednesday- January 11, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 11, 2012 9:29:30 AM EST
mike: just a heads up. I will be gone this afternoon and will not be able to send any messages after 12 noon Eastern time . A doctor's appointment so it's not avoidable. My apologies

Jan 11, 2012 9:33:17 AM EST
mike: support tested and held so far but don't trust too much upside

Jan 11, 2012 9:42:43 AM EST
mike: for now there is a chance to get to 1285 as long as they stay over 1283-1282 .50 the upside is going to fail to hold- likely under yesterday's high

Jan 11, 2012 9:49:42 AM EST
mike: 1285 was reached and they made it to yesterday's close. 1283.50 shouldn't be broken or a high could be in

Jan 11, 2012 9:52:56 AM EST
mike: 1284 .00-1283 .50 area is pivotal. If not quickly reversed a high will be in for a bit

Jan 11, 2012 9:59:51 AM EST
mike: they will have to get over 1284 and hold to try to get out of trouble this morning

Jan 11, 2012 10:04:37 AM EST
mike: 1280.50 is a decent support but if broken-or stay under 1283 then 1278 could be in the cards. 1283 Resistance

Jan 11, 2012 10:11:02 AM EST
mike: they need to get over 1283 with some gusto and then hold 1282 .50-1282 .00 area on a small pullback to try to get upside traction

Jan 11, 2012 10:15:53 AM EST
mike: 1283 area is pivotal this morning.

Jan 11, 2012 10:29:22 AM EST
mike: 1283 should hold on a pullback now to avoid rolling over. a move to 1286-1287 should happen if the market is still in bullish mode and not ready to roll over yet

Jan 11, 2012 10:38:05 AM EST
mike: they pulled back to 1283.50 and should try to test the 1286-1287 area here soon. need to hold 1283.50-1283.00

Jan 11, 2012 10:41:14 AM EST
mike: 1287 .00 high so far, 1285 now needs to hold

Jan 11, 2012 10:59:35 AM EST
mike: selling came in at 1286.50-1287.00, the target/resistance on the run-up. 1283.50-1283.00 area is still pivotal. Need a hold over that area to avoid drop possibly to test or break the low. 1285 area resistance now

Jan 11, 2012 11:12:51 AM EST
mike: we could see a short cover bounce from 82 but will need to get back over 1283.50, and especially 1285 to avoid more downside

Jan 11, 2012 11:29:02 AM EST
mike: 1282 was a support area coming into the day. It held on the first decent pullback from the high. If that is broken then the 1278 area could be seen before another good bounce attempt occurs. need to get over 1284.50 and hold that on a dip to get upside going. And avoid that possibility.

Jan 11, 2012 11:33:44 AM EST
mike: a quick drop to 1282.25 was quickly reversed back up. Consider that 1282 as key support.

Jan 11, 2012 11:37:40 AM EST
mike: I will be away for about 15 minutes. I will be able to update until around 12:20 PM, then I will be gone for the rest of the day. A doctor's appointment, so I can't procrastinate and blow this appointment off. ;-) If all goes good I might be back by 3 PM. If so I will let you know.

Jan 11, 2012 11:54:05 AM EST
mike: 1284 area needs to hold to keep this choppy up trend moving here

Jan 11, 2012 12:04:12 PM EST
mike: 1284.00 was bid on 2 tests, that needs to hold to keep choppy uptrend from failing

Jan 11, 2012 12:06:49 PM EST
mike: that was quick, as the ES having trouble just under 1286. bounces under 1286 are shorting opportunities now

Jan 11, 2012 12:28:01 PM EST
mike: 1286 was sold but may not drop far. Dips continue to find buyers. This should be safe as long as the ES doesn't drop down through the 1283-1282 area. I need to be going for now. If possible I will have an update close to 3 PM if I am home by then. Have a good day

Jan 11, 2012 2:57:27 PM EST
mike: I'm only here for a few minutes but it doesn't look like I miss too much. our old friend 1288 was reached and rejected. a choppy 4 point drop to 1284 was bought. 1286 is right in the middle here. This needs to stay over 1285.50 to get a push higher but doubt that it will stick over 1287.50

Jan 11, 2012 2:59:27 PM EST
mike: if they take out 1285.50 then 1284 should be a magnet and right down to 1282 if no turn up shows itself around 1284

Jan 11, 2012 3:13:21 PM EST
mike: any trade should be a scalp the way this is acting. or just take a pass on trading this the rest of the day. The key areas are 1288 for resistance and 1284 for support. they would have to punch up through 1287.50-1288.00 and hold that area to get something going on the upside. otherwise can see a pullback from up here, would need a break and hold under 1285.50 to help confirm.

Jan 11, 2012 3:13:38 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day

 

 

 

Tuesday- January 10, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 10, 2012 9:28:11 AM EST
mike: a breakout. Should drop back some early unless 1290 is clear/holds

Jan 10, 2012 9:33:44 AM EST
mike: 1288 will need to hold in the early going now on there will be a little push lower

Jan 10, 2012 9:41:06 AM EST
mike: a high should be in for a bit-especially if 1288 is broken. next bounce will be sold. 1286 area a minor support

Jan 10, 2012 9:45:56 AM EST
mike: 1288.50-1289.00 resistance now. 1256 area support

Jan 10, 2012 9:54:27 AM EST
mike: that should be a bounce high at 1289.25-otherwise if that is broken then

Jan 10, 2012 10:00:30 AM EST
mike: 1288 was one of my numbers for today and that looks to be pivotal early. They will need to hold over that for 5-10 minutes to have a chance to go for 1292 area

Jan 10, 2012 10:07:37 AM EST
mike: 1292.00-1292.50 area is where a high could be made-or else they could run up to 1296 possible. 1289.50 is a key support on a pullback nowwe

Jan 10, 2012 10:19:43 AM EST
mike: they rejected the 1292 resistance on the first test, now need to stay over 1290.50-1290.00-1289.50 -at the worst to have a chance to test or break through. If they don't reverse than 1296 to be in the cards

Jan 10, 2012 10:24:37 AM EST
mike: a top should be in at 1292 resistance for now. 1288.00-1287.50 prior resistance is now the important support to avoid a reversal / and make 1292 a minor top up here

Jan 10, 2012 10:30:38 AM EST
mike: need to push it over 1290.50 hold that level. still needs to be the support around 1288

Jan 10, 2012 10:37:07 AM EST
mike: need to hold 1290.50-1290.00 to keep this move going

Jan 10, 2012 10:48:53 AM EST
mike: buyers had been backing off and hitting the exit when this gets close to a high, 1291.50-1292.00 so far, and then buying them back on pullback. So this needs to get over that zone and not quickly turn back down to change this psyche

Jan 10, 2012 10:54:09 AM EST
mike: market is vulnerable under the 1291.50-1292.00 area. Would need a move over resistance and then a hold over 1291 on a pullback to get more out of the up side. The market will need to pullback to digest gains unless that occurs. 1288-1287.50 is a key support

Jan 10, 2012 10:59:27 AM EST
mike: pullback buyers at the last little swing low. 1290.50 should be resistance that's not cleared if going lower

Jan 10, 2012 11:03:42 AM EST
mike: 1288.00-1287.50 should be tested/broken if this stays under 1290 now

Jan 10, 2012 11:06:09 AM EST
mike: 1287.50 is reached-look for resistance around 1289 on a bounce

Jan 10, 2012 11:23:46 AM EST
mike: 1289 was broken and now needs to hold as a minor support. So far the ES hasn't liked it around the 1291.50-1292 .00 area. That will be needed to be pushed through if they bounce here. only if that resistance is clear/held and they try for 1296.it looks like the market is comfortable as long as 1287.50 is held over. That is the pivotal support that the market needs to stay over to keep the breakout intact, and not change the dynamics

Jan 10, 2012 11:42:18 AM EST
mike: topping out unless there is a move over 1291 that can stick, hold the 1290 pullback after broken. That doesn't look to be in the cards anytime soon. Look for a potential bounce from the 1287.50 key area. If they don't bounce from that area or above, then the market could be breaking down a bit and then 1286 area could be tested

Jan 10, 2012 12:00:26 PM EST
mike: so for a held over 1288.00- 1287.50 so no damage done yet and the ES stays in this trading range for now. Need to get over 1291 and then hold 1290 on a pullback to push higher. or break 1288.00-1287.50 and then have 1288.50 for a bounce resistance. back in about 15-20 minutes

Jan 10, 2012 12:23:33 PM EST
mike: this should follow the NQ and continue lower. the NQ has been in a breakdown mode since it dropped through 2365.50 area and that's resistance over there

Jan 10, 2012 12:24:54 PM EST
mike: 1288.50 looks like a pivotal resistance now that 1287.50 test

Jan 10, 2012 12:29:27 PM EST
mike: the old 1288 resistance is key now on a bounce. That area is pivotal and should be sold if tested again. If 1284.50 it is broken then the 1282 area is in the cards

Jan 10, 2012 1:01:14 PM EST
mike: when 1287 .50 was broken, that triggers sell stops and selling causing the downside the downside to pick up some steam. That is now resistance on this bounce, 1287.50-1288 area.

Jan 10, 2012 1:10:05 PM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 40 minutes, but will try to send a message if possible. Watch a test of 1287.50-1288.00 area to be sold into - if it's not then we could go back to 1291- but kind of doubt that at the moment. if they drop down to 1284 .50 look for a turn back up-that looks like a good target-and if not reversed from their then look for 1282.50 area for a bounce to occur

Jan 10, 2012 1:36:40 PM EST
mike: a double bottom at 1285 and now a pop up to 1288 resistance reject it on first attempt. 1287-1286.50 in support for a move higher

Jan 10, 2012 1:50:06 PM EST
mike: a 123 type of top at 1288-1287.75. That is still a pivotal area. The 1286.25-1286.00 needs to hold

Jan 10, 2012 2:01:27 PM EST
mike: they held at 1286.50 so far but then failed just under 1288 resistance. Market should soon break this range. If broken than a test of 1284.50 would be possible. But should be turned up quickly there otherwise not good in 1282.50 should then be tested

Jan 10, 2012 2:23:28 PM EST
mike: a pullback should stay over 1287.75-1287.25 area, if this holds over that then wouldn't rule out a move towards 1289.50 area and possibly higher.

Jan 10, 2012 2:34:23 PM EST
mike: 1287.25 was tested and that's as far as a pullback should go if there's going be another push up towards 1289.50. That should be a key area if reached on one more push higher

Jan 10, 2012 2:39:15 PM EST
mike: 1289 might be the max on this first push up

Jan 10, 2012 2:42:19 PM EST
mike: need to see them stay over 1288.00, 1287.50 at the worst if they can spring right back up from there. Otherwise this could begin to deteriorate a bit

Jan 10, 2012 2:49:43 PM EST
mike: 1289.25 bounce high so far. Now need to stay over 1288.50-1288.25 to keep this pushing higher and not reverse or pullback further

Jan 10, 2012 2:59:57 PM EST
mike: 1288.25 was broken so this up move is likely over for a bit, 1287.75 is the important support in here

Jan 10, 2012 3:04:34 PM EST
mike: 1288 it's back to being a pivotal level in the last hour. the ES needs to stay over that level to keep the uptrend from breaking

Jan 10, 2012 3:23:54 PM EST
mike: the rally probably doesn't have a whole lot further to go. We had a top ride the 1292 resistance listed last night, and although a pullback to 1285 was well contained, there was finally a bit of a emotional selling on the break of 1287.50 short after noon. There could be one last run up possible tomorrow to test 1292 or maybe take it out but that will be sold into if that happens. We are close to having a drop back under 1285 either today or tomorrow morning before more upside is possible it's beginning to look like

Jan 10, 2012 3:31:48 PM EST
mike: 1288 will probably be the key area to close over to stay in good shape or close under if the market wants to go lower again.. Have a good rest of your day, I'll see you tomorrow

 

 

Monday- January 09, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 9, 2012 9:29:55 AM EST
mike: I'm going to try to not flood you with so many messages today, if I can help myself. So far the ES has been turned back down from just under that the resistance. but a pullback gets bought this morning.

Jan 9, 2012 9:36:12 AM EST
mike: there is some pressure on as long as they stay under 1275-

Jan 9, 2012 9:49:55 AM EST
mike: the first small bounce reached 74.50, then a pullback to one tick above the initial support. it's holding so far -market stays bullish as long as that holds

Jan 9, 2012 9:55:49 AM EST
mike: 1274.50 should be a transition area-needs to be exceeded and held it there is going to be an attempt run up to test or break the key resistance.

Jan 9, 2012 10:10:07 AM EST
mike: initial support still held but now 1274.50 should be a transition zone if broken. bottom of the support zone at the 1271.25 low should/must hold now

Jan 9, 2012 10:18:52 AM EST
mike: look for selling near the key resistance up here if long from near initial support. need to stay over 1275-1274.50

Jan 9, 2012 10:23:28 AM EST
mike: 76.75 rejected again. finally push through 74.50 if not broken on this pullback

Jan 9, 2012 10:27:45 AM EST
mike: 1275.00 needs to hold now. 2352 on the NQ to keep up trend and not roll over

Jan 9, 2012 10:34:17 AM EST
mike: 77.25 was rejected, still good selling at the top of the range. This needs to stay over 1275.50 to avoid a pullback/or at least put a high in place for a bit.

Jan 9, 2012 10:39:54 AM EST
mike: has been staying just over 1275.50 and must back down to the 1274.50 area to see if that can be a support now, it must hold

Jan 9, 2012 10:44:45 AM EST
mike: tested transition area but looks like a better short under 1275.50-1276

Jan 9, 2012 10:45:37 AM EST
mike: also the NQ has a different pattern, a bearish one under 2354, it's about to break its low of the day

Jan 9, 2012 10:53:16 AM EST
mike: bounce to 74.50 and the NQ drop to a new low. The NQ is the easier vehicle to short. Market is bearish as long as ES stays under 1274.50 down to 1271 area and possibly 1268-67 if it gets momentum and more help from the NQ

Jan 9, 2012 11:01:38 AM EST
mike: 1273.50-1274.50 area on the ES and around 2348-2350 area on the NQ is resistance on this bounce

Jan 9, 2012 11:10:23 AM EST
mike: the little bounce only got to 1273.25 and they made a low at 1270.25 so far. If they stay under 1272.00-1272.50 then we could see 1268-1267

Jan 9, 2012 11:25:25 AM EST
mike: 1272 area is resistance on this bounce. It looks like a low is in place for a bit, but if they don't get through 1272 and then take out the low we could still see 1268-1267 before a decent bounce

Jan 9, 2012 11:31:59 AM EST
mike: the ES reached 1272.00 and now a break under 1270.50

Jan 9, 2012 11:33:31 AM EST
mike: is needed if going to test/break the low

Jan 9, 2012 11:45:53 AM EST
mike: held at 1270.50 instead of a breakdown. support now 1270.50 and 2342 on NQ

Jan 9, 2012 11:53:55 AM EST
mike: 1272 is a small transition area, needs defended or down to 1270.50 or more.

Jan 9, 2012 11:59:57 AM EST
mike: back in about 15 minutes or so. NQ needs to get back over 2350 and ES back over 1274 area or market still vulnerable

Jan 9, 2012 12:28:23 PM EST
mike: once again a market has had a bid on the pullbacks. The 1272 has indeed turned into a transition area and as long as that holds buyers are in charge. Upside appears limited however unless/until they move over 1277.50-1278 .00 and not quickly turn back down

Jan 9, 2012 12:41:57 PM EST
mike: 1274.00- 1273.50 should be good support on a pullback if this is going to go higher and not roll over from up here

Jan 9, 2012 1:02:01 PM EST
mike: a pullback to 1273.50 was bought and now we could be on our way to 1276 area or higher

Jan 9, 2012 1:03:35 PM EST
mike: watch 1274.50-1274.00 for a support area now on a pullback-need to hold that

Jan 9, 2012 1:16:07 PM EST
mike: the ES is in a range between 1273.25 and 1275.25. Would need it will take a break under the bottom of that range to turn this down. Also watch 2346 area on the NQ for a key support area

Jan 9, 2012 1:34:02 PM EST
mike: stalling out up here. Still, as long as 1273.75-1273.25 area holds the market stays bullish. The NQ is trying to shape up also. It needs to stay over 2346. If those are broken then things could change. If that's the case then 1272 would be in the cards, but doesn't look to be at the moment

Jan 9, 2012 1:38:37 PM EST
mike: next bounce should fail it would be a short if 1275 was reversed one more time, or a break of 1273.75-1273.25 area soon, then a bounce will fail also

Jan 9, 2012 1:53:55 PM EST
mike: 1275 was not reversed. The way it looks, even if it is buyers should come in and push it higher for as long as the 1273.50 area is held this afternoon the market will be in decent shape. Only if that is broken will things change and open the door for a test of 1267 area

Jan 9, 2012 2:07:36 PM EST
mike: 1277-1278 area could be in the picture. 1275 is a new small transition area and as long as that has held this uptrend stays in force

Jan 9, 2012 2:22:18 PM EST
mike: 1275 was tested and they bounced off of that. It will take a break of 1275 that doesn't turn right back up to put this into a different mode, test the 1273.50 level next for the key support up here at the moment. Still couldn't get to 1277-1278 area if 1275 has held

Jan 9, 2012 2:37:15 PM EST
mike: 1277.25 match the early high. would like to see this stay over 1276 at the lowest to keep this move up in gear and make a higher high

Jan 9, 2012 2:39:09 PM EST
mike: if they can hold that 1276.50-1276.00 area then a better chance to push through 1277.50-1278.00 area. A break of that support could put 1275 back in the picture

Jan 9, 2012 2:56:00 PM EST
mike: they dropped down to test 1275. That is a key area to stay over now it appears. If broken in 1273.50 area would be next. A move back over 1276 needs to stick to get another push higher going. a double top at 1277.25, a pullback is due here

Jan 9, 2012 3:08:49 PM EST
mike: was wrong about the pullback. The market has been acting very bullish with all of the dips catching a bid and turning up. This pullback looks like it needs to hold over 1275-12 74.50 at the worst to keep the up trend and possible test of 1278 area, need a popover 1276.50 for that to happen, or end the day on the move to the 1273.50 or lower

Jan 9, 2012 3:30:21 PM EST
mike: will need to stay over 1275.00-1274.50 to end on a good note. It has held that most of the day- should be important in the last 30 minutes of stock trade

Jan 9, 2012 3:31:47 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day. See you here tomorrow morning, a bit later than usual tomorrow

 

 

 

Thursday- January 05, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 5, 2012 9:32:35 AM EST
mike: as long as they stay under 1268 they are under pressure to take out yesterday's low, at least test it at 1262 .75

Jan 5, 2012 9:43:51 AM EST
mike: first bounce failed in a test of yesterday's low made. a low is only in if the ES gets over 1267 and doesn't quickly reverse back down. 1258 area next support on a hold under 1264 .50 resistance now

Jan 5, 2012 9:52:06 AM EST
mike: if a bounce to around 1263.50 and show some rejection, they should turn down again if we're going lower to test 1258. Otherwise they move to 1265 area before pulling back

Jan 5, 2012 9:54:59 AM EST
mike: resistance that 64.50-65.00 area

Jan 5, 2012 9:58:29 AM EST
mike: bounce high that 1264 .25, should drop to 1262 area at least, or a low is in place

Jan 5, 2012 10:02:33 AM EST
mike: 1261.25 reached so far. they will stay vulnerable under the 1264.50 resistance. That area needs cleared to get the market turned around and avoid potential test of 1258 area

Jan 5, 2012 10:16:54 AM EST
mike: there is some resistance at 1266 but this will stay out of trouble as long as 1263.50 is held now. Good buying came in at 1261 and that should be defended this morning

Jan 5, 2012 10:21:45 AM EST
mike: 1266.00 was rejected but a pullback should hold the 1264-1263 zone to avoid potential trouble and deeper pullback towards a low

Jan 5, 2012 10:25:53 AM EST
mike: 1264.25 was a pullback low. That needs to hold now to keep the uptrend

Jan 5, 2012 10:34:56 AM EST
mike: they should have high in place- especially if the 1264 not held

Jan 5, 2012 10:44:00 AM EST
mike: the NQ is leading the way today. It has failed three times at 2328-2329 area and that should be a top of some sort. The ES has a double top at 1267. The market should be seeing selling on the bounces unless those areas are cleared. If both 1263 on the ES and 2320 on the NQ are broken then pressures should be on for one more push lower.

Jan 5, 2012 11:09:42 AM EST
mike: those levels on the ES and NQ held on the first test, then were broken but quickly turned back up. 1262 area is pivotal this morning now. That should hold to keep the market away from testing 1258 area. Right here there is resistance at 1265.50 that needs clear to get a test of the high or higher. A pullback needs to hold around 1263.75-1263.25 to have a chance to push higher

Jan 5, 2012 11:19:27 AM EST
mike: 1263.75 was tested and held. Moves are pretty slow without conviction that this is currently a long above that 1263.75 area. Just don't get married to either side. Need to get over that 1265 and hold over that to get a squeeze higher

Jan 5, 2012 11:23:24 AM EST
mike: 1264.00 tested and pushed up. look for support now around 1265 area

Jan 5, 2012 11:27:54 AM EST
mike: the push above 1265 caused a squeeze that is strong support now. Should see a pullback to 1267-1266.50 area hold if this is going to make another push higher

Jan 5, 2012 11:31:10 AM EST
mike: resistance at 1269.75 and then the 1271.25-1272.00 zone on this move. A pullback should hold 1267.50

Jan 5, 2012 11:36:18 AM EST
mike: 1269.75 was exceeded by one tick so far. A pullback to around 1268.25 area should hold if this is going to make another push to the upside. Otherwise it can get a bit toppy

Jan 5, 2012 11:45:29 AM EST
mike: pullback to 1268.50 held minor support that now a test of 1270.50 new high. We now need to push it over that 1270.50 in the next few minutes or they coulddrop to test 1268 area again. In any case market stays bullish as long as 1268.25 is held

Jan 5, 2012 11:52:24 AM EST
mike: up to the 1271.25-1272.00 area. I think this should be a key resistance. the 1269.50 area needs to hold to keep the uptrend from aborting

Jan 5, 2012 11:58:24 AM EST
mike: the key resistance was rejected on the first attempt. careful for some selling on a retest. the 1269.50 was broken by one tick and turned up. If that goes, 1267.50-1267.00 area should be pivotal on a pullback. I'll be back in about 20 minutes

Jan 5, 2012 12:26:21 PM EST
mike: the key 1271.25-1272.00 resistance zone was probed and quickly rejected, then we get a shakeout.. They held the 1268.50 area on two small pullbacks and that should be important to stay over. If that is broken then a bounce that follows should be sold. Otherwise no damage done as long as they stay over the 1268.50 area

Jan 5, 2012 12:28:14 PM EST
mike: even though we are at key resistance again, still need to stay with trades on the long side until something changes this trend up type of action

Jan 5, 2012 12:48:37 PM EST
mike: if they are able to push through 1272 then we should see another little run up higher towards 1274 to give us and "outside day" on the charts. They still need to take out the 1269 area to turn down.

Jan 5, 2012 12:49:56 PM EST
mike: look for buyers at 1271 now. They keep putting the squeeze on shorts on the break over important levels

Jan 5, 2012 1:02:02 PM EST
mike: this market is very strong like yesterday after the early going. The upside has been steady since the 1263.75 support being tested this morning. There should be good support now around 1272 .50 on a pullback, that should be important to say over now. At some point soon this will set up for a quick short but it's better to stay with this uptrend until there is a change in market character

Jan 5, 2012 1:07:34 PM EST
mike: they held at 1273 .00. Continue buying pullbacks, the market is moving faster than yesterday so even if for just a scalp trade this uptrend has been ideal to buy on the little pullbacks to near a support area

Jan 5, 2012 1:17:25 PM EST
mike: if they break back under 1273 .50 then they could drop down to test 1272.50-1272 .00 but that area would probably hold on a pullback. Careful with longs up here if that breaks

Jan 5, 2012 1:29:26 PM EST
mike: we should see 1276.75 before this gives a pullback as long as 1274 .25 area is held now

Jan 5, 2012 1:34:00 PM EST
mike: 1276.75 was reached. we could see a pullback towards 1275 area. if 1276 .75 is cleared then we could be headed towards the old 1278-1280 area

Jan 5, 2012 1:43:31 PM EST
mike: 1278.50-1280m will probably be seen the way this has acted

Jan 5, 2012 1:48:43 PM EST
mike: 1276.50-1276.00 needs to hold now to keep this running higher. If that breaks then a decent pullback could occur

Jan 5, 2012 1:56:45 PM EST
mike: so far we have just a very small reaction from just under the 1278.50-1280.25 major resistance.. The 1276.50 if broken could go down to 1274-1272.50 area. That should hold that it's just a rest and this uptrend is going to continue

Jan 5, 2012 2:16:21 PM EST
mike: they could drop down to the 1274.00-1272.50 area and it should hold. otherwise a high is in. 1278.50-1280 .00 is good/major resistance above

Jan 5, 2012 2:19:18 PM EST
mike: a bounce should fail around 1276.50 if going to test the 1274-1272.50 area

Jan 5, 2012 2:38:10 PM EST
mike: the ES was sold down to 1273.50 , which was in the 1274.00-1272.50 support zone. That area should hold if the market is still strong and wants to go higher. For proof of another move up 1275 needs cleared and then held

Jan 5, 2012 2:53:15 PM EST
mike: support held so far so now need a hold over 1275 to get a push to/through the 1278.50-1280.00 area..

Jan 5, 2012 3:00:39 PM EST
mike: we had a pretty good rally all day after the first hour or so when the ES got going from the from the1263.75 support down there. Turned and to trend up move to 1278 just under a key resistance. They have gone sideways just over support for quite a while. Need a move over 1275 to hold more there will be a late day pullback instead of a continuation of the up move. If they get over 1275 and don't turn right back down then there's a chance to run up in tests 1278 resistance again.

Jan 5, 2012 3:17:31 PM EST
mike: the market had a good rally and now needs to digest it before jobs data in the morning. the 1272 .50 still a key support that it is a must hold area. I must leave a little bit early today. Hope you had a good day. I'll see you here tomorrow morning. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- January 04, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 4, 2012 9:29:53 AM EST
mike: today we should have a sell the bounce type of day at least down to test 1264 area it appears. There should be pretty good resistance around 1270-1271, yesterday's low area and a gap to fill with this down open. if that area is not reached then it will leave a bad looking chart pattern

Jan 4, 2012 9:35:56 AM EST
mike: they should

Jan 4, 2012 9:37:18 AM EST
mike: had a bounce off of 1266 but fail to take out 1270-1271 area and go down and test 1264 before a better bounce attempt

Jan 4, 2012 9:42:35 AM EST
mike: the NQ is much weaker than the ES and a better short. The ES should go for 1264-should not take up 1270-1271 and hold

Jan 4, 2012 9:56:35 AM EST
mike: a break of 1268 needed to turn this down. Look for resistance /reversal near 70.50 1270.50-1271.25

Jan 4, 2012 10:00:50 AM EST
mike: the 1270-1271 area was sold and is a key resistance to get over, and hold. 1268 need broken to put pressure on

Jan 4, 2012 10:07:49 AM EST
mike: 1266 is key, then should see 1264 area on a break. Need to get over 1268.50 to take some pressure off. 1270-1271 is still strong resistance and sell territory if it's reached again

Jan 4, 2012 10:09:53 AM EST
mike: pressure on under 1268.00

Jan 4, 2012 10:12:27 AM EST
mike: still should see 1264.50-1263.54 they even try to bounce

Jan 4, 2012 10:16:25 AM EST
mike: 1264.50 area reach. small resistance at 1266.50 and 1268 should be a pivotal resistance now on a bounce. Stay with the short side

Jan 4, 2012 10:22:25 AM EST
mike: so far they couldn't even get up to 1266.50. That's the first hurdle to clear on the upside. If that 1264 area is broken and we should be going to test the 1259 1258 area.

Jan 4, 2012 10:27:23 AM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NQ as it helped to bring this off of its low. The ES stopped at 1266.50 and needs to get back over that to take some pressure off.

Jan 4, 2012 10:34:15 AM EST
mike: could get a bounce from that support area but market is in a downtrend under 1266 .50

Jan 4, 2012 10:37:22 AM EST
mike: if the NQ stays under 2306 and the ES under 1265 pressure stays on

Jan 4, 2012 10:43:30 AM EST
mike: 1265 is trend down resistance. Need to be broken with some gusto to avoid another push lower

Jan 4, 2012 10:53:17 AM EST
mike: 1263.75 now support on a pullback, must hold that area. 1266.00-1266.50 resistance area that needs cleared/and held to get out of trouble for a while

Jan 4, 2012 11:07:15 AM EST
mike: the NQ put together a real nice bounce. ES needs to hold over 1266 to keep the bounce from failing

Jan 4, 2012 11:12:58 AM EST
mike: held right at 1266.00. The market will be okay to move towards 1270-1271 area unless that is broken

Jan 4, 2012 11:14:06 AM EST
mike: also keep an eye on the NQ as it is in a good trend as long as 2313 area is held on a pullback

Jan 4, 2012 11:24:27 AM EST
mike: the NQ was the leader on the way up, but this is getting topy. might not see the 1270-1271 area. A short under 1268 at the moment

Jan 4, 2012 11:25:43 AM EST
mike: 1265.25 area is support on a pullback. Keep an eye on the NQ still, it looks like 2316 area is pivotal there

Jan 4, 2012 11:32:48 AM EST
mike: there was good sellers around 1267.50-1267.75 the last time up here, need to stay under that if there is going to be another push down. we need a break of 1266 on the ES to turn the trend down however. Need a break of this tiny range

Jan 4, 2012 11:41:24 AM EST
mike: a pullback needs to hold 1268 if going for 1270-1271 area

Jan 4, 2012 11:55:18 AM EST
mike: stalling out here just under 1270 so far, the NQ is pulling back and needs to stay over 2316. 1267.75 on ES needs to hold a support on a pullback

Jan 4, 2012 12:03:08 PM EST
mike: so far the NQ held at 2316 and the ES stayed over 1268.75. If that's broken a top will probably be in place for a while

Jan 4, 2012 12:13:03 PM EST
mike: that breakout over 1269.50 triggered some buy stops. 1271 reached and now the trend stays up as long as long as 1269.50 is held on a pullback. If they push over 1271 then the 1272.50-1273.00 area could be seen

Jan 4, 2012 12:18:02 PM EST
mike: they could reach that 1272.50-1273.00 area soon. This should be okay as long as 1270.75-1270.25 is held

Jan 4, 2012 12:23:50 PM EST
mike: should be good resistance here. A pullback that takes out 1270 .50 would put a stop to the up trend . 1269 area is key support now

Jan 4, 2012 12:31:13 PM EST
mike: should make an early afternoon high, which often happens when there is a two-sided day.. They may try one more time to test 1272.50-1273.00 area but if 1270.50 broken them things will be changing

Jan 4, 2012 12:41:25 PM EST
mike: 1270.50 is broken and now and thanks to get over 1271.00-1271.50 area it is resistance on a bounce. Must be cleared/held to get to 1272.50 1273.00 area. it's vulnerable under that . I'll be back and about 10 or 15 minutes

Jan 4, 2012 1:01:04 PM EST
mike: they took out 1270.50 but didn't get momentum. Pullbacks have been very well contained in a steady trend up move of low. It's going for 1272.50-1273.00 area and if that isn't reversed then this can continue on towards 1276 and that would be one heck of a rally back. Right now the 1270 level is the key support and broken the trend will change

Jan 4, 2012 1:04:22 PM EST
mike: the 1268 area is going to be seen if they don't turn back up from 1270.25 really fast. a double top at 1272 so far.

Jan 4, 2012 1:12:04 PM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 30-40 minutes or so. At this juncture the market is a short on a bounce that stalls under 1272. if 1272 is taken out look for a reversal back to the downside from the 1272.50-1273.00 area. if they got up there and didn't reverse than a move towards 1276 would be possible but doubtful. I'll try to update during that time if possible

Jan 4, 2012 1:56:43 PM EST
mike: this could push towards the 1276 area, a strong market and pullbacks should be bought still for now

Jan 4, 2012 2:03:53 PM EST
mike: this needs to stay over/bouts from 1271.50 at the lowest it appears to keep the upside going. 1273 is the top side of the 1272.50-1273 .00 area but could be pushed through the way the market has been acting

Jan 4, 2012 2:05:32 PM EST
mike: it's a short under 1273 now, and also the 2327 high on the NQ

Jan 4, 2012 2:06:43 PM EST
mike: my bad for not getting us short at the 72.50-73.00 stall

Jan 4, 2012 2:11:28 PM EST
mike: the NQ, which has been the strongest in this uptrend, is a bit weaker up here. This would need to push on through 1272 and hold to try to go to a new high. a break under 1270.50 would put some pressure on

Jan 4, 2012 2:34:07 PM EST
mike: a pivotal area here, a push over 1273 that sticks can give a rally up to 1276. The 1271.50 area needs to hold now to keep this bullish move going

Jan 4, 2012 2:45:04 PM EST
mike: this is the third time up to 1273. if they are going to break out towards 1276 and it needs to take off from here. 1272 is now the key trends support

Jan 4, 2012 2:47:47 PM EST
mike: a failure, a break of 1272 should put pressure on

Jan 4, 2012 2:52:08 PM EST
mike: stuck between 1272 and 1273, they still need to stay over 1272 to keep the uptrend

Jan 4, 2012 2:53:56 PM EST
mike: they can go for 1276 if they can hold over 1273 up here.

Jan 4, 2012 2:56:05 PM EST
mike: should hold 1273.00 area -if still strong, 1272.50 at the lowest

Jan 4, 2012 3:01:01 PM EST
mike: if 1272.50 is broken and not quickly reversed right back up than they will have a high and place that should be sold against on a bounce

Jan 4, 2012 3:08:50 PM EST
mike: a high should be in place now, at least expect a bounce to be sold.

Jan 4, 2012 3:14:59 PM EST
mike: I need to leave early today. The 1270 level is key to stay over to avoid a reversal from up here. They could bounce but it probably won't hold. would need to get over 1272.50 and hold that level on a pullback

Jan 4, 2012 3:17:36 PM EST
mike: using 73 area still for the important resistance. And shorting against that. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday- January 03, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jan 3, 2012 9:20:45 AM EST
mike: A good start to the year for the Bulls. The 1270.50 area should be good support on the first pullback. Resistance at 1278 and then around the 1282 area but that will take some work, would be a huge day up

Jan 3, 2012 9:30:10 AM EST
mike: A good start to the year for the Bulls. The 1270.50 area should be good support on the first pullback. Resistance at 1278 and then around the 1282 area but that will take some work, would be a huge day up

Jan 3, 2012 9:35:10 AM EST
mike: 76 area should be a decent resistance early

Jan 3, 2012 9:42:58 AM EST
mike: ISM index release at the top of the hour. Should see some kind of pullback before that. 74.50-74.00 area should be the first important support on a pullback.

Jan 3, 2012 9:50:29 AM EST
mike: pullback reached 1274.25 so far, the bounce should fail around 1276 if this is going to go lower from up here

Jan 3, 2012 9:58:48 AM EST
mike: not a very an impressive bounce from support so far, 1276 should be important resistance to get over and hold to avoid a deeper pullback. If it does get over 1276 and hold then the market is still in good shape. ISM index in two minutes

Jan 3, 2012 10:05:43 AM EST
mike: the market will be in good shape as long as that 1274.50-1274.00 support is held this morning. pullbacks should be bought, but look for a reversal possible if 1282 area is reached and rejected

Jan 3, 2012 10:18:07 AM EST
mike: a pullback from here just under 1280 needs to hold around 1277.50-1277.00 now to keep the upside intact.

Jan 3, 2012 10:26:12 AM EST
mike: an early high can be put in a 1278 area is not able to hold.

Jan 3, 2012 10:33:14 AM EST
mike: we should see a move down to test 1277 and if that is not turned right back up then a high should be in place

Jan 3, 2012 10:43:24 AM EST
mike: 1277 tested but a move over 1278.75 now needed to get the up trend back in gear

Jan 3, 2012 10:50:14 AM EST
mike: the bounce failed to get over 1278.75 so the market looks like it could have a decent pullback- as long as it stays under that level

Jan 3, 2012 10:56:04 AM EST
mike: my mistake, as they touched 1277.00 and turned up. The bounce was not impressive, but the bulls should be in charge over 1277-that area must hold

Jan 3, 2012 11:18:59 AM EST
mike: pullback held at 1277.50. good sellers around 1279.50 on the ES and especially just under 2328 on the NQ. need to see this get over 1279.50-1280.00 and not turn back down.

Jan 3, 2012 11:36:28 AM EST
mike: they are holding over 1277, which looks more important now than it did earlier, but the market has good resistance at 1279.50 . It's a small range but need a break out- 1277 .50 bottom of the range now

Jan 3, 2012 11:52:08 AM EST
mike: 1277.00-1277 .50 area is now a resistance on the bounce. Also watch 2323 area on the NQ. If the ES breaks 1274 and doesn't turn right back up then 1272 should be in the cards. I will be back in about 10 or 15 minutes

Jan 3, 2012 12:07:57 PM EST
mike: the ES miss the 1277 resistance by one tick and the NQ turn down from 2323. Those should be an important areas to get over to get out of potential trouble

Jan 3, 2012 12:24:31 PM EST
mike: the last Pop up on the NQ was rejected right at 2323 and then it pulled back to 2318 while the ES went to 1274 .25 to test the early low. A break of that area needed to push towards 1272 or lower

Jan 3, 2012 12:35:03 PM EST
mike: 1272 or lower still in the cards. Keep an eye on the NQ as it has been respecting resistance areas on bounces

Jan 3, 2012 12:41:13 PM EST
mike: we got are 1272 - 1274.25 area is now a good resistance. The NQ has resistance around 2318

Jan 3, 2012 12:47:41 PM EST
mike: we get the Fed minutes at 2 PM Eastern time today. Normally a gap more than 4.50 points on the ES on a Monday is not filled that day. There is quite a ways to go before that occurs. The 1264 level is the gap fill level on a weekly chart and it is now probably an important support if this continues to push lower

Jan 3, 2012 1:00:55 PM EST
mike: 1272 looks pivotal. If that is cleared them move up to 1273.50 should be as far as a bounce goes. Need to hold the 1270 area to avoid deeper pullback towards 1266

Jan 3, 2012 1:17:35 PM EST
mike: pullbacks have been holding 1274.50. This bounce could get the ES to 1273 area.

Jan 3, 2012 1:53:52 PM EST
mike: they are under resistance by just a small amount but this is a move in front of the Fed minutes that will be released in about 10 minutes

Jan 3, 2012 2:03:47 PM EST
mike: 1272.50 is the key level below. As long as that holds then no damage done if broken then the trend reverses to down

Jan 3, 2012 2:22:54 PM EST
mike: they backed off to test small support but unless the ES can push over 1274 and hold this bounce is vulnerable

Jan 3, 2012 2:39:41 PM EST
mike: a pullback should stay over 1274 now otherwise the trend will change. Watch 1276.00- 1276.75 for key resistance

Jan 3, 2012 3:01:48 PM EST
mike: coming into the last hour of trading with the ES touching the top of a resistance area. that might be it for this bounce at 1276 .75. need a break of 1275.50

Jan 3, 2012 3:18:39 PM EST
mike: so far the pullback from the 1276.75 resistance hasn't gone too far. unless they breakdown through 1275 there will be a chance to push through that resistance

Jan 3, 2012 3:23:30 PM EST
mike: we have a gap on the monthly weekly and daily charts to start the year. Once again this market absorbed a decent pullback and rally right back. At the moment it appears that there is more downside potential

Jan 3, 2012 3:36:14 PM EST
mike: let 1274 .50 as a pivotal area. That 1276 .75 resistance will be key end of day. It's bearish under that level

Jan 3, 2012 3:55:34 PM EST
mike: the market is up big for the day but the better setups are coming on the short side. Have a good rest of your day

 

 

Wednesday- December 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 28, 2011 9:26:58 AM EST
mike: there should be some resistance at 1262.25-1262.75 area, and if broken then yesterdays double top at 1264.00. The major area is at 1266.00-1266.50. that is all ultra- important. The market is vulnerable up here unless that area is taken out. The key support is at the 1256.00-1255.25 area, should be very important to hold if tested. There is minor support at 1259.00 and that needs to be bought up quickly to a boy a test of that important area just above 1255

Dec 28, 2011 9:35:39 AM EST
mike: so far they stopped just of the above an important support. resistance at 1259.25

Dec 28, 2011 9:41:03 AM EST
mike: 1259.25 was sold on the first tests and that should be pivotal early. We need to get over that and hold, which is doubtful.

Dec 28, 2011 9:43:14 AM EST
mike: if you got in near 59.25 treat this as a quick scalp trade, they moved two points to 57.25 and better to lock and something in the early going

Dec 28, 2011 9:45:27 AM EST
mike: 1259.25 needs to be cleared/held to take some pressure off-but a bounce will likely be sold into. Should have a top in place for a few days

Dec 28, 2011 9:47:06 AM EST
mike: 1257.00-1257.75 area is resistance now on a bounce

Dec 28, 2011 9:48:25 AM EST
mike: 1253.25-1252.50 area is next support but just a minor area

Dec 28, 2011 9:54:37 AM EST
mike: 1253.25 low at support so far. This is still under pressure unless there is a good strong push up through 1257.75

Dec 28, 2011 9:58:14 AM EST
mike: it would need to get over 1256 now to take some pressure off. 1249 area is next support at 1252 is taken out

Dec 28, 2011 9:59:05 AM EST
mike: timeframe that we often see a counter trend move occur

Dec 28, 2011 10:06:39 AM EST
mike: they need toget back over the 1255 area and hold that level. Doubtful it can hold if broken. Good sellers above on bounces

Dec 28, 2011 10:12:44 AM EST
mike: they moved over 1255 two 1255.25 and then came right back down. It's still bearish unless 1255 is exceeded and held

Dec 28, 2011 10:22:13 AM EST
mike: the 1253 area should be resistance on a feeble bounce and should turn from there if going to test the 1249 area. 1246 as a key support to watch if this has one more good push to the downside

Dec 28, 2011 10:31:07 AM EST
mike: at 1249.25 low at/near some support. Still not out of the woods.1252.25 area is now the trend down resistance and also should be a transition area. That needs broken and then held on a pullback to get the market a breather from the selling. The 1246 area should be important to hold or else down to 1242 area to be in the cards

Dec 28, 2011 10:38:35 AM EST
mike: should be a headed for a test the 1246 area as long as they don't get back over 1250 and especially 1252.25 area

Dec 28, 2011 10:56:38 AM EST
mike: we had a three point pounds from 1252.25 to 1255.25 that failed, and now a three-point bounce from 1248.00 up to 1251.00. That failed so far. The ES will need to push through 1251 and then get over 1252.25 and hold that area to get this turned back up.

Dec 28, 2011 11:19:30 AM EST
mike: there is a small double bottom at the 1248.50-1248.00 area now and there are shorts covering/small buying going on just over that area. If it's broken than 1246 should be seen. If that holds and they can get over 1251.50-1252.25 area than the market could get itself out of trouble. They are still vulnerable at the moment if they can't get over over the 1250 level

Dec 28, 2011 11:37:04 AM EST
mike: the 1246 support/target was cut through buy one tick so far. The 1248 area is now resistance on another feeble bounce. 1244 .00-1242.50 area is the next support if they stay under 1246 for very long

Dec 28, 2011 11:50:19 AM EST
mike: a 1244.50 low so far . if there is going to be a decent bounce occur today and not stay in a steady trend down move then the 1244.00-1242.50 area will need to be quickly reversed and then get back over 1246 area. that was prior support. If they break through that area instead then the 1239-1238 area could be in the cards

Dec 28, 2011 11:55:43 AM EST
mike: I think we might have a low and place for a bit by holding over the 1244 area if this can stay over 1246 there is a chance to move up to 1248 or so. if they break under 1244 then the 1238 area could still be in the cards. I will be back in about 15 minutes

Dec 28, 2011 12:12:37 PM EST
mike: they had just a two-point bounce to 1246.50 area and stalled out and now back to the 1244.00-1242.50 support area. that 1244 area is key support needs to hold to avoid a trend down move towards 1238 area. It can get out of trouble 1246.50 is exceeded and then holds on a pullback

Dec 28, 2011 12:13:15 PM EST
mike: I will be away for about 30-45 minutes. My apologies. I will do my best to sneak in an update if possible

Dec 28, 2011 12:45:20 PM EST
mike: the ES got over 1246.50 and then held 1246.25 on a pullback and it is inching it's way higher. They need to break back under 1246 and don't turn right back up to go back to test 1244.00-1242.50 area

Dec 28, 2011 1:06:00 PM EST
mike: look for resistance at 1246.75 on this bounce. It should fail their we are going to go back down and test or take out 1244 area.

Dec 28, 2011 1:12:43 PM EST
mike: there were 2 bounces of 3 points and the early going and then a 3 point bounce from the low to 1247.25. Pressure will be on as long as 1247.25 is not exceeded and then held. If they would push over that then we need to see a move through it that has some gusto and not another stall or reversal after the breakout

Dec 28, 2011 1:37:00 PM EST
mike: a pullback needs to stay over 1247.50 to keep the upside intact. 1252.25 is a key area on this bounce.

Dec 28, 2011 1:51:18 PM EST
mike: 1247.50 held on the pullback and now needs to stay over if there's going to be a chance to push through 1249 and try for a test of 1252 area. If 1247.50 is not held then a bounce that follows should be sold

Dec 28, 2011 2:13:39 PM EST
mike: on a bounce back towards 1247.50-1248.00 it should set up a good shorting opportunity under 1249.

Dec 28, 2011 2:34:08 PM EST
mike: they failed under 1249 and drop down to a higher low at 1245.25 so far. If that is broken then the 1244 low will be in jeopardy. The market stays under pressure unless there is a move over 1249 this afternoon so stay with shorting bounces. The 1238 area could be in the cards yet on this move

Dec 28, 2011 3:08:31 PM EST
mike: the buying has come in just above the 1244 area but bounces are not sticking. as long as a bounce doesn't get over 1247.50 the market will be vulnerable and that 1245 -- 1244 area has a chance of being taken out before the end of the day. if 1247.50 is cleared, then a pullback should hold the 1246.50 area to avoid more downside and possibly run up to tests that 1249 area

Dec 28, 2011 3:21:21 PM EST
mike: the bounce failed at 1247.25 and 1244.00 was tested. Some buying/short covering there but a bounce should fail around the 1246 area if this is going to end the day on a down note

Dec 28, 2011 3:39:55 PM EST
mike: the bounce to 1246 failed and we got a washout to new lows. Could be seen 1238 before this selling is over. Would cover shorts on a test of the low today as that was made right with 30 minutes left in stock trading

Dec 28, 2011 3:40:21 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday- December 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 20, 2011 9:29:39 AM EST
mike: late getting around this morning. It looks like 1215 area needs to hold, and that 1218 .50 hi from yesterday a good resistance.

Dec 20, 2011 9:30:47 AM EST
mike: I will do am Update in about 15 minutes

Dec 20, 2011 9:40:02 AM EST
mike: 1224 .25-1225.00 resistance

Dec 20, 2011 9:43:51 AM EST
mike: 1228 area will be next. 1223 support, then 1219.00-1218 .50 is the key support this morning it needs to hold on a decent pullback

Dec 20, 2011 9:51:02 AM EST
mike: this needs to bounce from above 1223 area or the high may be in place for a while

Dec 20, 2011 10:18:56 AM EST
mike: need a hold over 1226 to get another push higher. we could have a double top otherwise. The 1224.00-1223 .50 area is support.That area needs to hold to keep the uptrend intact

Dec 20, 2011 10:30:13 AM EST
mike: we should see a choppy move up towards 1232 as long as 1224 Area is held

Dec 20, 2011 10:34:23 AM EST
mike: 1226.50-1226 .00 area shouldn't be broken now or things could change.

Dec 20, 2011 10:55:44 AM EST
mike: 1230 is a key barrier to push through. But as long as the 1228.00-1227.50 area is held this will continue towards 1232- the trend up move gets a pullback though if that is broken

Dec 20, 2011 11:02:23 AM EST
mike: 1228 .50 held on the pullback so no damage done just yet and 1232 area is still possible

Dec 20, 2011 11:06:01 AM EST
mike: need to push over 1230 and hold that to get going to 1232

Dec 20, 2011 11:16:57 AM EST
mike: the 1232 target/resistance was missed by just half of a point so far and might be a top - but only if 1230 not held. if 1232 is easily push through, then a move to 1234 would be possible. 1228.50 is now the key support to hold on a pullback to avoid putting in a top otherwise we get another

Dec 20, 2011 11:41:11 AM EST
mike: 1232 level was rejected with a high at 1231.75. 1228 area is now a key support to keep the move from failing. It looks like things have changed as long as they stay under 1230 .50

Dec 20, 2011 11:55:07 AM EST
mike: they held that 1228 .50 and just got a quick test of the high. need to stay over that 1228.50 area to avoid a turn towards 1224. No damage done though unless 1228.50 broken

Dec 20, 2011 12:09:52 PM EST
mike: we should see short covering/buying around this 1228.50. If it doesn't hold up in there then could drop down to 1226 next in possibly 1224 area which is a key support

Dec 20, 2011 12:37:01 PM EST
mike: back in 10 -15 min

Dec 20, 2011 12:58:00 PM EST
mike: 1230.50 needs to hold here to keep the upside intact and not turn the market back down

Dec 20, 2011 1:09:50 PM EST
mike: the ES held right at the 1230 .50 level and made a higher high so far - and stays trend up as long as 1231 .50 area is held

Dec 20, 2011 1:14:43 PM EST
mike: if we are going to stay in a strong trend then the

Dec 20, 2011 1:16:59 PM EST
mike: 1233.00-1232 .50 area needs to hold on this pullback

Dec 20, 2011 1:32:38 PM EST
mike: the market is starting to act a bit tired up here and needs to get back over 1234 and hold to get the upside going again. The pullback could tests 1231.50 or lower otherwise

Dec 20, 2011 2:06:46 PM EST
mike: if this 1231 .50 is held under, there should be some pressure put on the downside towards the 1228 .50 area that was important earlier this morning. To keep the rally going they will need to get back over 1233 and hold

Dec 20, 2011 2:24:06 PM EST
mike: the pullback to 1231.00 was just four points which is about as far as they go in a trend day. The market will say in bullish mode unless that is broken and then they hold under 1231.50. A move over 1233 is needed to get another push higher going

Dec 20, 2011 2:48:19 PM EST
mike: a very strong market obviously. A pullback should hold 1234.00-1233 .50-- at the worst it looks, and if so then the move can continue. The next resistance is at at 1238 area and then up at 1242-1243

Dec 20, 2011 2:53:15 PM EST
mike: that was a quick pullback to the support zone, but it held. if they don't hold 1233 .50 then a move down to 1231 is possible

Dec 20, 2011 3:14:00 PM EST
mike: there are some signs that this move probably won't see much or any follow-through. The market has been acting very well and still is very strong with support at 1234 .00-1233 .50 holding on the pullback. That area should be pivotal on any pullback we get now. if they can hold together up here and make one more push higher to a new high, then we could still see 1238 on this move up but after that it's time for caution on the long side, at least until there is some sort of decent pullback

Dec 20, 2011 3:21:33 PM EST
mike: double top to sell against

Dec 20, 2011 3:26:24 PM EST
mike: if they go back under 1234.00-1233 .50 and don't quickly turn up pressure could be on to test 1231

Dec 20, 2011 3:34:21 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday- December 19, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 19, 2011 9:21:22 AM EST
mike: 1215-1214 area needs to hold or else this starts to look weak this morning in the early going

Dec 19, 2011 9:41:05 AM EST
mike: should be pretty good resistance just above 1218-1219

Dec 19, 2011 9:41:53 AM EST
mike: the 1215-1214 area is key to stay above to avoid breaking down

Dec 19, 2011 9:46:26 AM EST
mike: early high should be in place at the 1218-1219 resistance area

Dec 19, 2011 9:53:00 AM EST
mike: the 1215-1214 area is tested, if 1214 broken through -look for a move to the 1212 area. 1216.50 is resistance to clear and hold

Dec 19, 2011 9:58:17 AM EST
mike: 1218.50 resistance level was a small double top and so far they pullback to 1214.25 old resistance now support. If the market is going to be strong today it needs to get in other rally going from right here and stay over the 1214

Dec 19, 2011 10:05:15 AM EST
mike: this will stay bearish now as long as they don't take out 1216.50-that should be a pivotal area

Dec 19, 2011 10:19:54 AM EST
mike: 1216 .00 was rejected on the bounce, market stays under pressure unless 1216.50 has taken out and not quickly turn right back down

Dec 19, 2011 10:22:49 AM EST
mike: needs to hold 1214 or a drop to 1212.50-1212 .00 area should be some support, but if broken and not turn it back up then 1208 area could be in the cards

Dec 19, 2011 10:33:15 AM EST
mike: for now it stays out of trouble holding over the 1214.00-1213.50 area. 1216.50 still is pivotal resistance

Dec 19, 2011 10:41:13 AM EST
mike: 1215.50 it is now support on a pullback and needs to hold to keep from reversing back down. 1218.50 is the resistance that needs to be cleared and held up here or we will have a trading range in the works

Dec 19, 2011 10:50:28 AM EST
mike: no trading range now. If they don't bounce from 1212 then the 1208 area is in the cards. 1215.50 should be solid resistance if they bounce back a far

Dec 19, 2011 11:03:36 AM EST
mike: 1211.50-1212.25 area is resistance on a bounce. 1208 area is still a major support to hold go to 1202 area

Dec 19, 2011 11:09:21 AM EST
mike: there is a small support at 1205.00-1204.50 and if that doesn't hold them down to 1202 area. Bounce resistance at the 1210.50- 1211.50 area

Dec 19, 2011 11:18:28 AM EST
mike: to turn the trend back up for a bounce they need to stay over the 1205.00-1204.50 area and then get over 1208 and hold on a pullback. 1210.50-1211.50 area is resistance

Dec 19, 2011 11:32:59 AM EST
mike: 1208.00-1208.50 stopped the bounce twice so far, 1209.50-1210.50 is pivotal resistance if that is exceeded. the 1205.00-1204.50 area is key support to hold now to avoid going to 1202 area

Dec 19, 2011 11:51:56 AM EST
mike: 1202 was tested and now bounce/trend resistance is at 1204.50-1205.25 area. If exceeded 1208.00-1208.50 is now a key resistance. if a break under 1202 happens then could go down to the 1198 area

Dec 19, 2011 12:06:16 PM EST
mike: I think that the 1202 area might be our low for a bit. A test of 1208 could be in the cards on this bounce- it should be sold if the market is going to stay a weak. a hold at 1204.50 needed to get a push higher

Dec 19, 2011 12:10:04 PM EST
mike: back in about 10-15 minutes

Dec 19, 2011 12:27:17 PM EST
mike: the ES bounced from 1204.25 but hasn't been able to get going over the 1206 area. it looks like It will take a push over that to get shorts covering and try to get to back to the 1208.00-1208 .50 area

Dec 19, 2011 12:30:12 PM EST
mike: a fake out move on the upside yes 1205.25 it is not held

Dec 19, 2011 12:43:47 PM EST
mike: as long as 1206 is not exceeded, there should be a test or break of the 1202 area on this move, and then after getting back down there, we should see a decent up-down-up type of pattern off of the low on this move if this traces out the pattern I'm looking for. There should be buyers around 1202 area again. If no turn there, then 1198-1196 zone could be seen

Dec 19, 2011 1:10:42 PM EST
mike: 1205.50 is support that should be a transition area on the upside, if 1205.50 is broken then the trend turns back down and it puts 1204 and then 1202 as a next support areas and a very thin and quiet market

Dec 19, 2011 1:30:38 PM EST
mike: the market is beginning to get a little bit more active. Bounces are not sticking, but if this can hold 1205 .00-1204.50 it should be bottoming out for a good bounce, potentially, would need to push through 1208

Dec 19, 2011 1:37:25 PM EST
mike: the NQ is breaking support so the ES is a short under 1206.50 for now down to the 1202 area. Not crazy about long side until we had an upturn and up trend intact

Dec 19, 2011 1:49:22 PM EST
mike: 1205-1204 area should hold if this is basing out for a move higher this afternoon, even though the move will likely be sold into, possibly around 1208 and maybe up to 1212 would be possible

Dec 19, 2011 1:56:23 PM EST
mike: a quick rally up to the 1208 .50 area. A pullback should hold around 1207-1206 .50 area to continue higher

Dec 19, 2011 2:13:37 PM EST
mike: this move back down should hold the 1206.00-1205.50 area at the furthest to keep the upside going. 1208-1209 old support is a good/important resistance

Dec 19, 2011 2:29:00 PM EST
mike: 1206.00 is pivotal and it needs clear and held on a pullback to prove short-term strength. The 1204 level has turned to important support and has been territory two times so far so that needs to hold to avoid a breakdown

Dec 19, 2011 2:48:44 PM EST
mike: 1204 .00 held for the third time today (trying for a fourth year) after the low was made at the 1202 .25 key support. As long as that holds the market will be making a bottom of some sort. However if that breaks and it's not quickly turned right back up from above 1202 and the market will have a problem. the 1208-1209 Area is still the major area to get over and hold to get out of trouble today

Dec 19, 2011 3:13:55 PM EST
mike: 1202 is now resistance on a bounce. We are at the 1198 area, if they break1198 and don't reverse right back up then the 1194 area will be next on the downside

Dec 19, 2011 3:52:13 PM EST
mike: it has been stuck between 1199 on top and 1196 on the bottom. Would expect this to crumble a bit into the close and as long as it stays under 1199

Dec 19, 2011 3:53:01 PM EST
mike: have a great rest of your day!

 

 

Friday- December 16, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 16, 2011 9:30:27 AM EST
mike: we should see a pullback to 1215-1214 area and that is a key area it looks

Dec 16, 2011 9:37:09 AM EST
mike: 1218 will be pivotal-no reversal and less breaks

Dec 16, 2011 9:42:40 AM EST
mike: need to stay over 1219.00 now, the high should be made

Dec 16, 2011 9:46:04 AM EST
mike: if they stay under 1219 .00-1219 .50 that 1215- 1214 area it is in that cards

Dec 16, 2011 10:00:09 AM EST
mike: the pullback held above the first important support area- 1219 is pivotal support-

Dec 16, 2011 10:06:01 AM EST
mike: the 1220 .50 area is now support. 1224 .50 is resistance for the market but it's in good shape above 1220 area

Dec 16, 2011 10:13:08 AM EST
mike: stalled out at resistance-a pullback shouldn't go too far by the way this is acting

Dec 16, 2011 10:24:32 AM EST
mike: if the 1222.50 area is broken and not reversed quickly than a reversal/decent pullback should start. 1220.50 should be the support on a breakdown

Dec 16, 2011 10:31:15 AM EST
mike: 1221 .25 should be support and then 1220.50 area should be more important to hold

Dec 16, 2011 10:37:58 AM EST
mike: 1220.50 was a pullback low so far. This needs to get back over 1224 and hold -not make another double top

Dec 16, 2011 10:47:04 AM EST
mike: unable to push through 1224

Dec 16, 2011 10:50:38 AM EST
mike: and also unable to break below 1221 .25 and we need a break those levels either way to get things moving

Dec 16, 2011 11:03:27 AM EST
mike: 1221.25 was defended so far but it's acting top-heavy, need to push over 1224 for the move is over for now

Dec 16, 2011 11:05:28 AM EST
mike: 1220.25-1219.50 is the next support

Dec 16, 2011 11:11:29 AM EST
mike: pullback held at 1220.25 support but if 1222 isn't exceeded/and held then 1219.50 should be tested and may be lower

Dec 16, 2011 11:27:06 AM EST
mike: 1220.25 held as support. However 1221.50 was a support earlier and now has turned into resistance that means a move over 1221.50 is needed and will need to hold that

Dec 16, 2011 11:29:46 AM EST
mike: otherwise a break of the 1220.25 area sends them right to 1219.50- possibly 1218 area

Dec 16, 2011 11:43:10 AM EST
mike: 1218 area is reached and now the 1220.25 area is the resistance bounce. The 1216 early low would be next and we could be headed towards that 1215-1214 area at this holds under 1218 for very long. that will be the key for further weakness

Dec 16, 2011 11:50:16 AM EST
mike: they need to get over 1218.50 and then hold that level on a pullback to get out of a trip to 1215-1214 on this leg down

Dec 16, 2011 11:57:21 AM EST
mike: so far we have a test of the early low at 1216.00 and a small bounce off of it. However since 11 AM it has been a steady grind lower so look for bounces to fail in for a move to 1215-1214 where the market will need to hold to avoid trouble

Dec 16, 2011 11:59:13 AM EST
mike: the 1212 area will be in the cards if 1214 is held. The NQ has further to go to do the same damage

Dec 16, 2011 12:00:45 PM EST
mike: how many mics

Dec 16, 2011 12:08:38 PM EST
mike: the 1212 area held so far, 1212.75 low - 1216.50 is as far as a bounce should go now for the downtrend to stay intact-staying under 1215 keeps pressure on

Dec 16, 2011 12:35:36 PM EST
mike: the 1215 level was touch but not exceeded and it kept the pressure on and now the break the 1212 level makes this a bad looking market. The 1208 area which was yesterday's low in the bottom of a range would be next on the downside and very important to hold/or break through and possibly even head towards 1202 area

Dec 16, 2011 12:47:10 PM EST
mike: the NQ reached its equivalent support of 1218 area on the ES at the 2230.50 area. If that is broken then I suspect this will break pretty hard and stick- not turn right back around like it did when it tested that level the first time

Dec 16, 2011 1:01:17 PM EST
mike: the ES held 1208 and the NQ turn right back from 2229.50 so we might have a low in place for now. That run up reach 1212.75 and that is a resistance that needs to be taken out to take the pressure off

Dec 16, 2011 1:03:45 PM EST
mike: I'll be back in about five minutes. a pullback that holds around the 1211.25 area should be reversal area to keep the upside going

Dec 16, 2011 1:47:47 PM EST
mike: sorry that was a long five minutes. The way this market is acting I'm having a hard time liking the long side, unless it's for a quick scalp. In any case, we have probably seen the high and low for the day unless something happens in the last hour. If the 1208 area is broken then the market should be in some trouble unless it's quickly reversed. On the upside 1215 is still a important resistance to get over

Dec 16, 2011 2:00:10 PM EST
mike: there could be a bounce from the 1210 level but as long as they stay under 1214 selling bounces should offer the easier trade

Dec 16, 2011 2:14:40 PM EST
mike: 1210.50 was well bid 3 times now, but with quadruple witch going on there is a very thin bid/offer in the queue on both sides, all of the players are present. it makes a strong move possible at any time.. For now the market is okay as long as 1210 holds but needs a break and hold over 1212 to try to get the upside going

Dec 16, 2011 2:30:06 PM EST
mike: the 1209.50 level has been holding on the bottom and of this two-day range except for the spike lows that reversed from 1208 yesterday and 1208.25 this morning. A hold under that and not a quick reversal down here will put more pressure on

Dec 16, 2011 2:43:06 PM EST
mike: the 1212 area was turned back again. a test of 1210 should hold to keep this going on the upside. 1209-1208 is turning into a big support area that's key for the rest of the day. the ES has to stay over that area to avoid breaking down.

Dec 16, 2011 2:48:40 PM EST
mike: they held a 1210.50. If they stay over 1211.50 in the move and continue. a test of the 1214-1215 area would be sold if this is still weak.

Dec 16, 2011 2:58:28 PM EST
mike: I'm planning an early weekend and am not crazy about trading option expiration. So I am just about to leave. they reached 1213.50 on the bounce and fail. the 1214.25 level is resistance that needs clear/held to get a short squeeze higher. The 1209-1208 area should be very important on the bottom side.

Dec 16, 2011 3:00:41 PM EST
mike: have a great weekend and I'll see you here on Monday morning

 

 

Thursday- December 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 15, 2011 9:29:00 AM EST
mike: another day with a gap opening. Watch that 1220 area for a reversal if there is going to be one early here

Dec 15, 2011 9:39:45 AM EST
mike: 1220.00-1220.50 area looks to be pivotal. 1216.50 low needs to hold or a test of 1214 area which looks like key support this morning

Dec 15, 2011 9:44:10 AM EST
mike: early high should be in and 1214-1213 likely to be tested at least

Dec 15, 2011 9:45:38 AM EST
mike: 1218 area should be pivotal now in the early going.

Dec 15, 2011 9:53:29 AM EST
mike: 1218.50 rejected on first attempt. I think a break that under 1217 needed to turn this back down

Dec 15, 2011 9:57:54 AM EST
mike: 1217.00 was held so far. Keep an eye on that NQ- it will need to get turn up to get the ES moving up pretty well

Dec 15, 2011 10:00:42 AM EST
mike: Philly Fed release is good

Dec 15, 2011 10:04:23 AM EST
mike: needs to stay over the 1217 level to avoid a reversal. A move over 1220.00-1220.50 is needed to get something going on the upside. That could be a lid. Sell bounces under 1220 and under 2244 on the NQ

Dec 15, 2011 10:05:10 AM EST
mike: 1214-1213 area is a support that needs to hold below the market in a target for a push lower

Dec 15, 2011 10:13:23 AM EST
mike: 1212.50 the low so far but the selling probably no over- if they get over 1215 resistance then a further pop up to the 1217 area should be good resistance

Dec 15, 2011 10:18:13 AM EST
mike: 1214.50 is the bounce high so far. Need a move over that that holds to turn this trend a bit. The NQ has been a weak link- it needs to get over 2238

Dec 15, 2011 10:26:27 AM EST
mike: stuck at 1215. Needs to push through soon .1213.50 now needs to hold on a pullback here. Watch 1216.50-1217.25 area for resistance if there is one more feeble push higher

Dec 15, 2011 10:33:51 AM EST
mike: if this 1212 area is broken and held, then we should be on our way to test the 1208.50 area again. The market has seen these as transition areas the past few days. It takes a move above 1215.75-1216 .25 area to get a transition on the upside

Dec 15, 2011 10:42:04 AM EST
mike: one more push towards 1208.50 area should the next area to test. The 1212.25 area is good resistance now in 1213.75 is a key area that shouldn't be broken to keep the downtrend intact

Dec 15, 2011 10:50:44 AM EST
mike: 1208 area reached. A small bounce is possible from here for the 1210 area should offer resistance and more selling - if that's not a low just under 1208

Dec 15, 2011 11:03:29 AM EST
mike: they moved over 1210 but without much gusto so far. need to stick over 1209 or the action returns to bearish.

Dec 15, 2011 11:06:58 AM EST
mike: they won't be able to get over 1212 area and hold unless the NQ can join the move by getting over 2226 area and stick up there also-it is weaker and leading this

Dec 15, 2011 11:15:39 AM EST
mike: the last pullback had a test of the 1209 area and reversed up quickly. Buyers are in charge as long as that's not broken. Just don't expect this to go to far unless 1212 area is cleared and then held

Dec 15, 2011 11:22:47 AM EST
mike: 1210.50 is now a key support to keep this channel up intact

Dec 15, 2011 11:36:43 AM EST
mike: a breakout over the 1212 area and that needs to hold on a pullback-- if it is tested and not held/reversed up then the 1210.50 area is that key support. I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so

Dec 15, 2011 12:00:54 PM EST
mike: move over 1212 ended up being a fake out-then a drop under 1212 had a little momentum to the 1209.50 area - 1212 area should be pivotal- then the 1208.50 level below. I still like the NQ on the short side on the bounces, seems to be easier to read

Dec 15, 2011 12:23:39 PM EST
mike: we are having a two-sided day. the double bottom at 1209-08 area is a good support on the bottom side and should hold to avoid trouble today. They pull back now should hold around the 1213.50 area and just say normal pullback. The 1218 area would be next on the upside

Dec 15, 2011 12:24:57 PM EST
mike: I need to be a way for about 30-45 minutes but will try to update if possible as I will have one eye on the screen

Dec 15, 2011 12:52:43 PM EST
mike: he bounced back to 1214 area should fail-the 1212 area is in the cards should be a pivotal area-a break send them back down two 1211 area at least

Dec 15, 2011 1:26:10 PM EST
mike: 1212 area will need to continue to hold or else we could see one more push to the downside. That 12

Dec 15, 2011 1:30:35 PM EST
mike: that 1198 area was met on Globex and they rallied strongly from there-so we probably won't be seeing that area again but if so it will very likely be bought. To avoid a break of 1212 we need a breakout over 1214- hopefully a break of this range gives us some momentum and a retracement

Dec 15, 2011 1:37:33 PM EST
mike: if the 1209-1208 area is broken on this move down, then not quickly reverse back up, a move down to 1204.50 could be in the works. 1212.50 area is now resistance on a bounce

Dec 15, 2011 1:47:08 PM EST
mike: that was "telling" - the 1213 area should be good support on a pullback here. that 1209-1208 area is a very key and obviously a pretty strong support area if reached again

Dec 15, 2011 2:33:12 PM EST
mike: "buy the dip--sell the bounce" action in a two-sided choppy day. At the moment the market looks like it can push lower and possibly take out the 1209 on the ES and 2224 area on the NQ. or at least tests that area-there was good buying their on the last test and should be a key support

Dec 15, 2011 2:39:53 PM EST
mike: 1210 .00 low on this pullback, making higher lows so that should be somewhat important as support to be a buyer with a tight stop. watch 1211.50 for a pivot area now. The market should turn back up if that is exceeded and not quickly turn right back down.

Dec 15, 2011 2:48:26 PM EST
mike: 1211.50 was rejected and then the pullback was quickly bought. Still would be careful on the long side until some proof of strength

Dec 15, 2011 2:58:57 PM EST
mike: 1211.50 is resistance. 1208 .50 needs to hold to avoid a test of the 1204 .50 area

Dec 15, 2011 3:08:00 PM EST
mike: the next pullback should hold 1210 to have a chance of breaking up through 1211.50 resistance area

Dec 15, 2011 3:11:30 PM EST
mike: I need to leave early today. resistance to break and hold his the 1211.50 in the support that needs held to keep the rally intact is at 1208 area.

Dec 15, 2011 3:15:56 PM EST
mike: choppy all day and it looks like it will stay that way. have a good rest of the day. I'll see you here tomorrow morning

 

 

Tuesday- December 13, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 13, 2011 9:52:43 AM EST
mike: 1241.00-1240.50 will need to hold on a pullback to avoid a reversal up here. The 1242-1243 area not able to be pushed through and held so far

Dec 13, 2011 10:02:18 AM EST
mike: 1241.00-1240.50 area held so far, that should be the first sign of weakness if broken

Dec 13, 2011 10:07:27 AM EST
mike: a pullback from up here should begin in the next 5-10 minutes if we are going to not have a trend up move

Dec 13, 2011 10:10:19 AM EST
mike: they pulled back off the high but no damage done unless the 1240.50 support is broken

Dec 13, 2011 10:26:36 AM EST
mike: 1240. 50 holds so far but this looks like a short under 1242.75 or at 1244 early high made 33 minutes into the trading day

Dec 13, 2011 10:29:01 AM EST
mike: 1239 area it is the first importance support. Keep an eye on the NQ-it's a bit more volatile but is leading this morning

Dec 13, 2011 10:31:30 AM EST
mike: 1238.25 should be a decent support area, old resistance, but 1241.25 area should offer resistance

Dec 13, 2011 10:40:07 AM EST
mike: 1236.50 area is a small support, the low of the day so far and the opening range, 1232.50 area would be next support if there is another right lower. Resistance is at 1239.25-1239.75 for this trend to stay down

Dec 13, 2011 10:49:28 AM EST
mike: if you are short from earlier (around 1141.00, the short under 1242.75) covering part at 1232.50 area and trailing a stop- 1237 area a transition area on remainder

Dec 13, 2011 10:56:55 AM EST
mike: so far 1233.25 is a low, just over 1232.50 support area, this bounce needs to fail around 1236 if they are going to try to break through the low. keep an eye on the NQ for it to break under 2288 area

Dec 13, 2011 11:01:45 AM EST
mike: 1236.00 bounce high, look for a test of 1233.25-1233.50, may be lower if the NQ continues to drop

Dec 13, 2011 11:06:08 AM EST
mike: half of the short covered, 1236 area now is a good resistance on a bounce, might want to tighten stops

Dec 13, 2011 11:08:50 AM EST
mike: 1230.50-1228.75 area was yesterday's closing area there should be some support in that area for a bounce to short

Dec 13, 2011 11:13:26 AM EST
mike: 1233.25 area is resistance as long as 1230. 50 area not broken, 1228 area with the next. the 1236 area is a key resistance

Dec 13, 2011 11:18:52 AM EST
mike: needs to reverse back down from this 1234 area or else a low is in

Dec 13, 2011 11:23:36 AM EST
mike: it looks like this will hold together as long as 1232.50 holds for now

Dec 13, 2011 11:32:17 AM EST
mike: this bounce should fail to clear 1236 just above, but if it does then look for a bounce high to be put in around the 1238 area. Right now 1233.25 needs to hold for this could roll over again

Dec 13, 2011 11:44:20 AM EST
mike: 1236.50 was reversed/sold. 1233.75 had a good bid up and could be a transition area. This little trend doesn't reverse unless1235 the more important that 1233.75 is broken

Dec 13, 2011 11:51:31 AM EST
mike: back in just a bit

Dec 13, 2011 12:14:38 PM EST
mike: today is a Fed day and we had a good early trading opportunity that worked out very well. so not going to press any trades, something needs to stand out like a sore thumb before going back in. Right now it looks like a bounce high could be in for there is one more push up towards 1238 area. It does appear to be a fairly low-risk selling opportunity if they pop up there and then reverse, otherwise a break of 1235 can turn this down

Dec 13, 2011 12:40:37 PM EST
mike: they broke 1235 and barely bounced back, this break will make the next bounce a shorting opportunity.

Dec 13, 2011 12:42:52 PM EST
mike: I will be in and out over the next hour or so but will try to keep with some updates in between. Today's low is at a key spot and if broken we could go back towards 1225-1224 if broken by much

Dec 13, 2011 1:29:49 PM EST
mike: the 1237 area has been rejected three times so watch that for good resistance on a pop up to sell into on a stall or some rejection. Watch the 1234-1233 area for what should be a key support area to keep this trading range in front of the Fed release

Dec 13, 2011 1:39:33 PM EST
mike: another pop up that did not stick- and a test 1234 that so far caught a bid. A break is more likely here given the refusal to push over 1237 area which is key now

Dec 13, 2011 1:56:26 PM EST
mike: since we have been in a range coming into the Fed release, expect the market to have a big move (relatively) after the release. There should be an "up-down-up" or vice versa type of pattern after the release and then a trend should develop and that should last into the last 40-20 minutes of stock trading.

Dec 13, 2011 2:13:01 PM EST
mike: Fed release in about five minutes. For now it looks like things will be okay as long as that 1234-1233 area is not broken. A move under that area that is not quickly reverse back up the cause a pretty sharp downdraft

Dec 13, 2011 2:19:15 PM EST
mike: so far the 1234-1233 zone was reached and held so far but a bounce should fail the way this is acting with 1237 as a key resistance

Dec 13, 2011 2:22:49 PM EST
mike: this is bearish under the 1234.50-1235.25 area

Dec 13, 2011 2:40:01 PM EST
mike: 1226 is a small support them down to the 1221-1220 area from yesterday will see a major area

Dec 13, 2011 2:44:45 PM EST
mike: there is a bounce to the 1229.75-1230.25 area it should fail if going lower. That 1233-1234 Area it is a major area if they rally back strong which looks doubtful

Dec 13, 2011 3:00:11 PM EST
mike: a small double bottom at 1224. must hold or else yesterday's low area will be tested. 1229.75-1230.25 area needs to be exceeded to get this out of some trouble.

Dec 13, 2011 3:09:13 PM EST
mike: 1229.50 the bounce high so far, if that's not cleared in 1226 is broken then they could take out the low and go to test yesterday's low. watch the 1227 level for a bounce and if that doesn't happen they could be breaking down again

Dec 13, 2011 3:23:54 PM EST
mike: if this keeps going through 1220 then look for the 1218 area-if no sign of a turn from there then we could be headed back to 1200 or a bit lower

Dec 13, 2011 3:30:51 PM EST
mike: 1218 area reached, that is a must hold area or else the 1212 area could be seen. 1224 area now is a pivotal resistance to get that over and hold to get this out of trouble

Dec 13, 2011 3:35:11 PM EST
mike: 1218 was easily cut through and now 1212 should be the next target

Dec 13, 2011 3:35:58 PM EST
mike: we could seeing the 1200 area or just below if this continues to break down through the 1212 area

Dec 13, 2011 3:41:53 PM EST
mike: 1212.50 low so far. The 1218 area should be resistance now,

Dec 13, 2011 3:51:11 PM EST
mike: the ES tested the 1218 area and failed so far, market and trouble if they close under that level. Have a great rest of your day!

 

 

Monday- December 12, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 12, 2011 9:30:03 AM EST
mike: the 1244 area is a pivotal resistance today if a decent bounce. They need to stay over that 1232 area on further weakness-that is the key support

Dec 12, 2011 9:37:40 AM EST
mike: should bounce from 32.25-31.75 area if there is going to be a reversal. 1238 is good resistance on the first bounce

Dec 12, 2011 9:46:03 AM EST
mike: holding over 1232.25 support a must otherwise 1228 could be seen. 1236.50-1237.25 area is first resistance on a bounce

Dec 12, 2011 9:58:20 AM EST
mike: 1233.25-1233.75 area should be resistance on this bounce if going lower. Market under pressure under that area down to 1228 area

Dec 12, 2011 10:08:34 AM EST
mike: 1228.75 low so far-just over the 1228 support. first resistance on this bounce is 1232.75.

Dec 12, 2011 10:23:39 AM EST
mike: a test of the 1223 area could be in the cards here. We would need a very quick reversal back to the upside if tested. Right now the market stays in a trend down mode unless 1232 is exceeded on a bounce. There should be some resistance at 1230 level if going lower to the major support

Dec 12, 2011 10:39:54 AM EST
mike: We would need a break and hold over the 1229.50-1230.00 area to begin to turn the trend

Dec 12, 2011 10:45:55 AM EST
mike: a potential little double bottom at 1226.50-1226.25 area. And move over 1228.50 then holds there on a pullback we get the trends turned up for a bit-1232 area is a Key resistance if they do bounce from down here

Dec 12, 2011 11:25:11 AM EST
mike: we should have a low in, the 1229.50-1230 area is a key area to get over it and hold to change this trend

Dec 12, 2011 11:31:23 AM EST
mike: the 1227.00-1226.50 area needs to hold on this dip to keep the bounce attempt intact

Dec 12, 2011 11:46:16 AM EST
mike: we could see a bounce from down here but as long as 1229.75 not exceeded the market stays under pressure-the 1223 area should be important down here

Dec 12, 2011 11:52:17 AM EST
mike: watch 1226.50 area on a bounce for what should be a resistance. A bounce from this area (1224.00-1222.50 zone) has to happen soon. The next key area is around the 1218 area on the ES

Dec 12, 2011 12:02:47 PM EST
mike: 1222.50-1224.00 area will need to be cleared and held, not rejected as it has been at resistance this morning, to begin to get out of this hole. A test of the low should be in the cards and maybe down to 1218 area if the 1220 level is broken.

Dec 12, 2011 12:07:07 PM EST
mike: back about 15 minutes.

Dec 12, 2011 12:19:34 PM EST
mike: 1224 should be a pivot area. It's bearish under that level. watch 1222.25 for support now. That will need to break for this little up trend to be broken

Dec 12, 2011 12:43:03 PM EST
mike: 1222.50-1224.00 old key support has turned into a trading range. For now the trend down action continues unless 1224 is cleared and held.. A break under 1222.50 would give us one more push down

Dec 12, 2011 1:02:31 PM EST
mike: the pressure will say on as long as they cannot hold over 1224 area for a long

Dec 12, 2011 1:03:00 PM EST
mike: 1218 is still possible the way this is acting today

Dec 12, 2011 1:42:26 PM EST
mike: 1221 is basically a double bottom because the low at 1220.00 was a spike low ( was quickly reversed) and then 1221 is where the bids came in to push the market back up. that will be a key area for rest of the day- 1223 is minor support it needs to hold to keep the bounce alive

Dec 12, 2011 2:01:19 PM EST
mike: a spike high as 1225.25 was quickly reversed. If not exceeded, we should have a 3.50 point drop off of this high at 1225.25 if a symmetrical move lower-(would need to break 1223.50 to break the trend and get headed that way) that would be to 1221.75 which is close to the double bottom.

Dec 12, 2011 2:08:52 PM EST
mike: pretty good selling at 1224.50, this could get us back to the low and maybe 1218 if it accelerates

Dec 12, 2011 2:14:25 PM EST
mike: 1221 .75 was reached, 1223.50 is resistance on a bounce

Dec 12, 2011 2:27:45 PM EST
mike: a pullback should hold above 1224.00-1223.50 at the lowest to keep the higher lows on the intraday charts intact. In that area breaks then the 1221.50 last low would be challenged.

Dec 12, 2011 2:39:20 PM EST
mike: 1221. 50 needs to hold to avoid a push down towards 1218. 1224 is resistance on a bounce

Dec 12, 2011 2:40:53 PM EST
mike: the NQ also needs to avoid breaking through 2275-2273 area without a quick reversal

Dec 12, 2011 2:48:32 PM EST
mike: 1221.50 held so far-1224 area is about as far as a bounce should go and fail-or a move back to test 1226 it is possible

Dec 12, 2011 3:05:52 PM EST
mike: 1226 was tested and now this has to hold over the 1224.00-1223 .50 area to have a chance to make another run higher

Dec 12, 2011 3:13:55 PM EST
mike: the NQ is the leader here late in the day. It still has that 2275-2273 area earlier to break down, or hold if this is going to avoid a larger drop over the next day or two

Dec 12, 2011 3:31:41 PM EST
mike: the market was in a trading range from shortly after noon so this move will need to stay over 1225.50-1225.00 on a pullback to keep the trends from turning back down and give a leg up towards 1223 area for lower again

Dec 12, 2011 3:38:39 PM EST
mike: the pullbacks held just over 1225.50 and popped up to 1228 so far. This could go to 1229.50 and if that succeeded by much then 1232. If they break under 1227.50-1227.00 then a move up will be over

Dec 12, 2011 3:41:43 PM EST
mike: 1232 almost reached. 1228 is now key support late in the day

 

 

Friday- December 09, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 9, 2011 9:29:42 AM EST
mike: 1232 area needs to hold or a bounce that follows should be sold. 1235.55 - 1236.25 it is a resistance that needs clear to avoid early pullback. Today I will be in and out of the office though there probably will not be as many updates

Dec 9, 2011 9:50:32 AM EST
mike: 1240.50-1241.00 was rejected on the first test and should be a key hurdle to clear and hold on a pullback. 1236 should be pivotal on a push lower, if broken and not quickly reversed them a high will be in. We get consumer sentiment report at the top of the hour

Dec 9, 2011 9:56:02 AM EST
mike: the number was released early, need to hold 1240.54-

Dec 9, 2011 9:57:46 AM EST
mike: should have a top at 1242 now especially if 1239 is broken

Dec 9, 2011 10:01:40 AM EST
mike: it looks like 1239 needs to be broken to get a shakeout to the downside

Dec 9, 2011 10:06:59 AM EST
mike: it's tired here. watch 1241.25 for a key spot on a pullback that will need to hold around there. The most important area now this morning is 1239 from earlier

Dec 9, 2011 10:19:07 AM EST
mike: 1241.25 has been holding but if broken then a drop to 1240.75-1240.00 would be as far as a pullback should go or the pattern breaks to the downside

Dec 9, 2011 10:25:54 AM EST
mike: next bounce should fail so a short on a pop up and use 1240.25 as target one

Dec 9, 2011 10:28:13 AM EST
mike: well that happened fast again. This pattern is bearish so look for/or be short under 1242 area. 1239 just below still important to break and hold

Dec 9, 2011 10:33:37 AM EST
mike: 1241.75 bounce high so far but it's starting to look okay as long as 1239 is not broken

Dec 9, 2011 10:38:33 AM EST
mike: character has changed. Bounces should be sold unless they break and hold over 1242 area

Dec 9, 2011 10:56:04 AM EST
mike: a good bounce, with fuel added on the move above 1240.50- that should hold on the pullback to keep the upside going

Dec 9, 2011 11:18:33 AM EST
mike: my connection to this room keeps dropping, so quickly... the 1246.25-1246.75 area was listed as fixed resistance and that is another area for the Bulls to push through. 1245 should hold if it's going to be broken. 1242 area has as far as a pullback should go. 1239-1238 is a major support

Dec 9, 2011 11:25:09 AM EST
mike: I wouldn't try to short this unless the trends change. the market has a strong on dips. A pullback is a buying opportunity unless there is a break and hold under 1245.00-1244.50 area down to the 1242 area

Dec 9, 2011 11:37:57 AM EST
mike: this has to stay over 1246.25 area to keep the grind higher intact. 1248 area looking like a pullback area up here

Dec 9, 2011 11:49:53 AM EST
mike: it rejected the resistance at 1249.50-1250.25 and I should be a high for the lunchtime trading. 1245.00-1244.50 will be to hold or things may have changed

Dec 9, 2011 12:04:05 PM EST
mike: a high should be in for the afternoon/lunchtime trading at 1244.50 area key to hold onto or there can be some damage done to this trend up move


Dec 9, 2011 12:04:19 PM EST
mike: I'll be back in about 20 minutes

Dec 9, 2011 12:43:10 PM EST
mike: the 1144.50 level that I gave for key support held in a rallied up to 1248.25. The last pullback stayed over 1244.50 and now at 1248 area tested. It failed so far-a move back below 1244.50 would put a dent in the upside momentum and trend. Afternoon high should be in but this is a very thin market and can be moved either way pretty fast. Those moves don't always hold however. We could get some quick back and forth action with an upside bias as long as 1244.50 is not broken by much without being quickly reversed back up

Dec 9, 2011 12:54:21 PM EST
mike: this is acting a bit tired and could be a pullback if 1248.not cleared soon

Dec 9, 2011 1:04:13 PM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NQ- it needs a push lower with the ES to get a move going on the downside-or upside from up here.

Dec 9, 2011 1:13:48 PM EST
mike: it looks like a short on a bounce that stalls around the 1247.00-1247.50 area for a scalp-that is a pivotal zone

Dec 9, 2011 1:26:12 PM EST
mike: a double top of sorts if 1248.50 is not exceeded soon. A quick short from here with a stop around the high might be worth a shot here for a scalp. Other wise 1247.50-1247.00 needs broken and not quickly reversed to get (or help confirm) a move lower

Dec 9, 2011 1:26:52 PM EST
mike: also stay with the NQ action as it is leading

Dec 9, 2011 1:30:19 PM EST
mike: this 1250 is right at a key area on the upside, as should get a pullback. Support at 1248at the lowest

Dec 9, 2011 1:35:20 PM EST
mike: the NQ coming off its high helping the ES pullback

Dec 9, 2011 1:39:15 PM EST
mike: this should go to 1248.00 and then bounce and going higher, that should be its key level below. If they manage to push through 1250 then we should see the next resistance at the 1254 area get a test on this move up.

Dec 9, 2011 1:45:25 PM EST
mike: 1248.00held so far I should get a move back up going if this has power to get through 1250 or not

Dec 9, 2011 1:58:08 PM EST
mike: should have a drift lower for a bit so look at the sell side under 1249-1250

Dec 9, 2011 2:00:07 PM EST
mike: it has been a trend up day but by the way it looks we should have a high and at resistance

Dec 9, 2011 2:14:10 PM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 10-15 minutes. Doubt I'll miss much. Right now they are stuck under 1249 and above 1247.50 and need to break through that and stick

Dec 9, 2011 2:45:27 PM EST
mike: look for support at 1249.50-1249.00 for another run up towards 1253.50-1254 .50- that it is still possible as long as the support is not broken. The NQ has look in better shape most of the day

Dec 9, 2011 2:59:12 PM EST
mike: not too far from the next good resistance that's near 1254 on the ES. 1251 .00-1250.50 area is support now than that needs to hold to keep the uptrend intact. If broken and not reversed then a drop to 1249 area likely

Dec 9, 2011 3:05:21 PM EST
mike: we had a good trend up day and now coming off the high going into the last hour, expect a bounce to fail now a top should be in for the day a bounce back to the 1250.5 area would be a good short

Dec 9, 2011 3:06:40 PM EST
mike: 1247 area is the key support this afternoon

Dec 9, 2011 3:15:20 PM EST
mike: 1250.50-1251.00 as resistance should be a pivotal area. have a nice rest of the day and a great weekend. I'll see you here on Monday morning

 

 

Thursday- December 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 8, 2011 9:30:11 AM EST
mike: the 1272 upside target was reached before the open. The deeper drops like this one are bought. Still I favor selling rallies, it's easier to see the setups for me

Dec 8, 2011 9:46:01 AM EST
mike: the NQ started out the strongest and it needs to hold around 2312 area to keep its uptrend and the ES needs to bounce from around 1251 to keep from turning down

Dec 8, 2011 9:53:47 AM EST
mike: that should be a good resistance on the ES to sell against

Dec 8, 2011 10:04:50 AM EST
mike: NOTE: the numbers I referred to today will still be from the December contract-the same contract we have been trading- even though today is rollover day to the March 2012 contracts. I will change over to the new front month starting in tonight's nightly update. We have the move starting at 10 AM so market under pressure

Dec 8, 2011 10:05:47 AM EST
mike: as long as there is no move back over 1253 that holds

Dec 8, 2011 10:14:07 AM EST
mike: 1252 area is first resistance on this bounce and it must be clear to get an uptrend

Dec 8, 2011 10:28:47 AM EST
mike: we could get a bounce from down here off of 1246 but there should be the resistance around 1252 now and that needs to be exceeded and then held on a pullback on a pullback to show some upside strength. Otherwise the move will be sold again from around that area or just below

Dec 8, 2011 10:43:57 AM EST
mike: a feeble short covering bounce to just under 1252 so far, but a IF 1252 is cleared they could get a squeeze higher. If not and 1249 breaks and this cuts through 1246 on another push lower than we have a test of the key area at 1244.00-1242.50 area which must be defended to avoid doing damage to the bigger picture trend/range

Dec 8, 2011 10:56:23 AM EST
mike: 1252 was broken but not held. 1252.50 area should be a high and especially if they breakthrough 1250

Dec 8, 2011 11:02:47 AM EST
mike: NOTE: the numbers given are for the December contract that we have been trading, even though rollover to March 2012 happened today. I didn't have a chance to re-do the support and resistance last night. A move back to 1250.25 area should be sold to keep the market under pressure

Dec 8, 2011 11:07:40 AM EST
mike: hard to be a seller at a low, so need a solid break here to head to 1244-1242

Dec 8, 2011 11:10:46 AM EST
mike: staying under 1247 keeps the pressure on.1248.50-1249 .00 area would be a transition to the upside but currently it is good resistance if a bounce

Dec 8, 2011 11:13:58 AM EST
mike: still haven't a few put options from last Friday, only loss has been time decay-I'm going to stay with this a bit longer. Things begin to look bad if 1244 breaks and holds-1238 area would be next if that happens

Dec 8, 2011 11:21:04 AM EST
mike: a pretty feeble bounce so far from major resistance- the pattern stays bearish under 1246.50-1247.25 area now.

Dec 8, 2011 11:27:33 AM EST
mike: they should be sold on this 1246.50-1247.25 area if still weak- 1246.50 the high on this bounce so far. If that's cleared than a low could be in place-it would have to hold on a pullback

Dec 8, 2011 11:34:00 AM EST
mike: tests of the low at a major support held, so things could change but needs a bounce with some gusto-the same resistance--1246.50-1247.25 area needs to be cleared/held

Dec 8, 2011 11:40:34 AM EST
mike: this opens the door for a move towards 1238 as long as it stays trend down under 1246 at the highest right now-1244 should be resistance now

Dec 8, 2011 11:44:57 AM EST
mike: 1143.50-1144 .25 area is about as far as this bounce should go to keep their current persistent trend in force. The NQ made a double bottom and worth keeping an eye on at 2300 as a key area there

Dec 8, 2011 11:51:58 AM EST
mike: 1244.25 is the bounce high so far but this looks like a reversal back up is possible if 1243 can hold

Dec 8, 2011 11:55:37 AM EST
mike: just happened I as I pressed send. There should be some short trapped down under the 1243 old major support looking for cover on a pullback. I will be back in about 10 minutes, and then in an out for about an hour

Dec 8, 2011 12:18:33 PM EST
mike: 1247 on the ES and 2309 on NQ are small resistance but should be important on this bounce. A reversal here and a break under 1244.50 on the ES can turn this back down. A hold of that 1244.50 keeps the trend up for now

Dec 8, 2011 12:35:02 PM EST
mike: 1247 .00 on the ES and 2309.25 on NQ were turned back in the market is back looking at a test of the low if 1242.75 area is broken through and not quickly reversed it and head towards the low end maybe the 1238 area. If they hold that 1242.75

Dec 8, 2011 12:52:57 PM EST
mike: 1244.50 should be good resistance up here if were going back down again

Dec 8, 2011 12:53:38 PM EST
mike: 2305 area on the NQ should be its maximum bounce

Dec 8, 2011 1:03:38 PM EST
mike: both the ES and also the NQ topped out at their resistance levels are now pushing lower we should see 1238 on the ES if the market is going to stay week in a bearish mode

Dec 8, 2011 1:04:34 PM EST
mike: look for resistance around 1242.50-1243.00 on a bounce from down here

Dec 8, 2011 1:05:17 PM EST
mike: if you are short from higher prices stay with this two 1138 or lower

Dec 8, 2011 1:07:19 PM EST
mike: that happened fast. We are getting some quick moves in both directions. The 1242 level should be good resistance on a bounce

Dec 8, 2011 1:20:38 PM EST
mike: watch 1240.50-1241.25 area for resistance on this bounce-that should be sold with this persistent downtrend is going to continue

Dec 8, 2011 1:34:21 PM EST
mike: 1240 was rejected, and that's just under 1240.50-1241.25 area that should be the important upside resistance right now so it could be setting up for one more push lower. If that area is exceeded than a bottom could be in for a while

Dec 8, 2011 1:50:08 PM EST
mike: that was a pretty decent bounce so far but stopped right at the 1240.50-1241.25 area so respect the resistance run til the pace is broken-

Dec 8, 2011 2:03:45 PM EST
mike: that little spurt up to1241 resistance quickly rejected -that should be key resistance now to sell against-it was "last trapped" transition resistance which has worked all day

Dec 8, 2011 2:13:51 PM EST
mike: that was a pretty good short cover bounce off of the 1237 area right now still needs to get over the 1241.25 resistance to show that this has more than the gas tank than the other bounces did

Dec 8, 2011 2:22:17 PM EST
mike: a pullback to around 1240.50- 1240.00 should hold if we are going to stay in this bounce back mode.

Dec 8, 2011 2:30:09 PM EST
mike: this is a short on bounces under 1242-the market is still vulnerable

Dec 8, 2011 2:38:18 PM EST
mike: we are going from a trend down move into a choppy attempt at a transition as the last two drops were quickly reversed no doubt by short taking profits. But as stated earlier the bounces that fail under 1242 are shorting opportunities, that is the resistance to be short below this afternoon

Dec 8, 2011 2:44:55 PM EST
mike: three times a test of 1237-if that is broken and then down to 1232.50-1232.00 area is a possibility. 1237 is a key support

Dec 8, 2011 2:58:08 PM EST
mike: still may see the 1232.50-1232.00 area reached on this leg down

Dec 8, 2011 2:58:47 PM EST
mike: need to stay under the 1240 area at the highest now

Dec 8, 2011 3:07:32 PM EST
mike: I'm not sure what to expect in the last hour of the day has been basically down and unless 1240 is exceeded at 1232.50 area is still a possibility

Dec 8, 2011 3:19:59 PM EST
mike: they are still under 1242 but as long as 1239.50 is not broken this trend up and continue

Dec 8, 2011 3:27:28 PM EST
mike: the 1242.50-1244.00 area will be key on a closing basis I believe so treat that as a pivotal area. A close above that keeps the market of trouble but a close under may not be so good. We should see some crazy action in the next 24 hours.

Dec 8, 2011 3:28:11 PM EST
mike: have a good arrest of the day. I'll see you in the morning

 

 

Wednesday- December 07, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 7, 2011 9:24:49 AM EST
mike: 1249.50 was the low on Globex so far. We can get a bounce off of that area but a decent bounce will be sold and the short side should set up better today once again. Back in about 15 minutes or so

Dec 7, 2011 9:43:01 AM EST
mike: 1249-1250 area is resistance and needs cleared/held to take some pressure off- otherwise we could go to 1243 area or lower

Dec 7, 2011 9:54:56 AM EST
mike: a low for a little bit could be in if the ES can stay over 1247 but I don't see a bounce going too far before selling comes in. Old support at 1249 is now new resistance

Dec 7, 2011 10:02:33 AM EST
mike: 1251 area is good resistance that should be sold - 1248-1247 area shouldn't the broken on this pullback is going to get over 1251 on a bounce

Dec 7, 2011 10:07:04 AM EST
mike: 1247 .50 held and that is Key to say over to avoid a test or break of the low. Market not out of trouble unless 1251 exceeded/held

Dec 7, 2011 10:18:11 AM EST
mike: there has been a good bid below around 1247 at 1250 area has been resistance in this little range. Need a breakout of the areas that holds to get a decent move going

Dec 7, 2011 10:26:23 AM EST
mike: the low most tested but this is a bearish pattern as long as staying under 1249-1254 now with 1243 or lower insight

Dec 7, 2011 10:30:03 AM EST
mike: 1246.75& 1247.25 area is resistance on this bounce

Dec 7, 2011 11:01:36 AM EST
mike: the ES made a bottom at the low end of recent range one hour into the trading day. that is a key support zone at 1244-1242. The 1247 held on a pullback in his important support. This 1250 level is the resistance that needs to be cleared/held in order to take some pressure off - if cleared then we could get a bounce up toward 1253-1254 or so were there should be sellers waiting

Dec 7, 2011 11:10:24 AM EST
mike: this 1251 should be about as far as a bounce should go if the ES is going to go down and break the support at 1249 which is pivotal now

Dec 7, 2011 11:22:15 AM EST
mike: a slow-motion pullback to 1249.00- that should be a pivotal level still going to test 1253-1254 area

Dec 7, 2011 11:34:36 AM EST
mike: the ES got a squeeze up to 1253-1254 so far. Small support 1251.50 now and need to stay above that to keep this uptrend intact.. If 1249 is broken then the pressure should be back on . Back in about 15 minutes

Dec 7, 2011 12:04:54 PM EST
mike: market is testing yesterday's closing range and it should be hard to get over 1255 and hold up there. if 1252.50-1252.00 area is broken then we can see a drop down to the 1250.50 area as first support.

Dec 7, 2011 12:09:44 PM EST
mike: I will be in end out over the next 45 minutes .the move has been a"trend up" move since the low so if there is a break up 1252.50 pattern will change

Dec 7, 2011 12:28:24 PM EST
mike: 1252.50 area held and the trend up move is still going. That is a key area now this afternoon. No damage done unless that is broken. If they continue to push higher here look for resistance around 1257-1258 area next. This could be a strong area to push through and hold up here

Dec 7, 2011 12:46:17 PM EST
mike: a pullback to 1255.50-1255.00 zone would be as far as it should go if going to stay in a strong uptrend. .at this juncture 1256.00 weeks to hold . If there is a break and hold over 1258-starting now as I type-then 1260.50 is the next resistance

Dec 7, 2011 12:47:11 PM EST
mike: 1258.50 could be a high so careful trying to chase a rally up here

Dec 7, 2011 1:00:49 PM EST
mike: 1257must hold

Dec 7, 2011 1:10:46 PM EST
mike: 1255.50 1255.00 supp tgt

Dec 7, 2011 1:15:15 PM EST
mike: 57.00 57.50 r

Dec 7, 2011 1:31:46 PM EST
mike: the fixed initial resistance at 1259.00-1259.75 was just missed on the last bounce and they pullback to the 1255.50 support. This is another short up in that area for another drop to test support

Dec 7, 2011 1:47:48 PM EST
mike: support being tested from the last bounce high. A place to lock in profit, trail a stop loss on remainder

Dec 7, 2011 1:53:17 PM EST
mike: resistance is at 1256.50 area and shouldn't be exceeded/held if this has topped out just under initial resistance. The next support is at 1252.50 area and key

Dec 7, 2011 2:12:21 PM EST
mike: the ES went right to 1256 50 and then turn down keeping this toppy acting so if here have a short position that is the

Dec 7, 2011 2:12:53 PM EST
mike: Key resistance to stay under


Dec 7, 2011 2:24:37 PM EST
mike: if 1252 is broken and not quickly reversed then pressure will be on the downside. Resistance on this move is at 1255.50-1256.00- that should not be exceeded/held on this amounts

Dec 7, 2011 2:39:49 PM EST
mike: pullback from 1256.00 has to gather some momentum by pushing under 1254 and hold it or it could be exceeded on the upside

Dec 7, 2011 2:39:58 PM EST
mike: just happened

Dec 7, 2011 2:42:02 PM EST
mike: it's kind of a tough call now. But it looks like nothing bad will happen as long as the ES stays over this 1253-1252 area just below current prices. It's just hard to see much upside from here the way this is acting

Dec 7, 2011 2:49:57 PM EST
mike: it looks like 1256 is going to be important after all. A bounce is a short under that level. The NQ might be an easier short as it is a bit weaker in here

Dec 7, 2011 3:32:25 PM EST
mike: a pullback will need to hold around 1255.50 to keeps the trend intact. Resistance at 1260 and then 1263

Dec 7, 2011 3:38:11 PM EST
mike: as long as 1256.50-1255.50 zone is not broken then the market will be okay to end the day on a good note. In that area is broken then the trend will turn-it should be solid support the way this is acting late in the day. Have a good rest of the day and I'll see you in the morning

 

 

Tuesday- December 06, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 6, 2011 9:29:30 AM EST
mike: 1258 area is needed to be cleared and held per last night's update

Dec 6, 2011 9:42:12 AM EST
mike: reversed from 1258.50 resistance, stops on shorts just above - a move down to 1255-1254 area

Dec 6, 2011 9:44:32 AM EST
mike: partial cover on short from 1258 here at 1254.50-stop at breakeven at worst on the remainder

Dec 6, 2011 9:48:51 AM EST
mike: 1248.50 should be in the cards if 1252 is broken and not reverse back up through 1254area

Dec 6, 2011 9:59:33 AM EST
mike: 1255.50is resistance on this bounce should be pivotal

Dec 6, 2011 10:07:28 AM EST
mike: 1255.50 is now support that needs to hold-a transition area early

Dec 6, 2011 10:26:25 AM EST
mike: 1256.50 is now support that should hold on a pullback to keep the upside from reversing.

Dec 6, 2011 10:33:24 AM EST
mike: the market is bullish as long as 1257.50-1257.00 area is held on a pullback. If that is broken then things might change. There is some resistance at 1261.50 from yesterday that needs to be pushed through

Dec 6, 2011 10:43:12 AM EST
mike: 1257.25 was bought and just a small bounce before reversing back down and now back to a top heavy market-a sell on bounces

Dec 6, 2011 11:09:01 AM EST
mike: the high was made about one hour in-need to get over 1257 and not turn it back down to keep up side potential. otherwise we could go back to test the 1252 support area. A test of 1260 that stalls or shows rejection would set up a short

Dec 6, 2011 11:20:45 AM EST
mike: it has been a choppy grind lower since the 1260.25 high was made and they still need to get over 1257 to change the pattern. Both sides are in play but better short earlier

Dec 6, 2011 11:30:22 AM EST
mike: no hold over 1257. Watch also the NQ as it is still the leader on the drops and currently that important support

Dec 6, 2011 11:34:22 AM EST
mike: 1252 very important below if a break under 1254 trigger stops

Dec 6, 2011 11:36:24 AM EST
mike: 1249-1248 area should be next support and get a test if 1252 is not quickly reverse back up

Dec 6, 2011 11:43:59 AM EST
mike: 1255.50 should be about as far as another feeble bounce goes to stay in this boring but persistent grind lower

Dec 6, 2011 12:11:55 PM EST
mike: the market is okay as long as 1254.50 is held, a pullback should hold for a trade on the long side. I'll be back in about 20 minutes

Dec 6, 2011 12:41:05 PM EST
mike: if you got long on the test of 1254 .50 then don't overstay as the 1257.00-1257.50 has been a good resistance over the last hour-just a scalp trade

Dec 6, 2011 1:02:07 PM EST
mike: about three point range over the last hour. This remains vulnerable as long as it's trading under 1257

Dec 6, 2011 1:17:45 PM EST
mike: this is still stuck in a range but a good bid comes in at the bottom of it- another pullback to test 1254.50 should be bought

Dec 6, 2011 1:26:00 PM EST
mike: should see support at 1257.00-1256.50 to get another pop up to the upside and keep this breakout alive

Dec 6, 2011 1:44:47 PM EST
mike: the 1257.50-1257.00 area will need to hold on this little pullback or it could break down to 1255.50 and 1254 once again. 1259 is a key resistance now

Dec 6, 2011 2:02:47 PM EST
mike: really some weird action today- a quick move in either direction wouldn't be a surprise; it looks like a a better short under 1258 then a buying opportunity-the NQ not acting good and should pull ES down with it

Dec 6, 2011 2:13:13 PM EST
mike: if this is going to stay in a downtrend then the NQ should hold under 2319 area and the ES should stay under 1257.00-1257.50 area which looks pivotal-actually 2319 on the NQ also looks pivotal

Dec 6, 2011 2:20:57 PM EST
mike: a pullback to around 1257 should hold now on the ES and that 2319 area on the NQ should also be watched for support or a break. It is a scalper's market. Other wise worth a seat on the sidelines today

Dec 6, 2011 2:38:12 PM EST
mike: a good bid on the pullback-this time 1258 area should hold it on a higher. If they push through 1260 then there is minor resistance at 1261.50 and then 1263.00

Dec 6, 2011 2:42:20 PM EST
mike: that happened fast. The 1259 are now support on a pullback-it should hold so look for buying at that area if reached. A small pullback should hold around 1260.50 the lowest

Dec 6, 2011 2:46:25 PM EST
mike: I have to leave early today, at 2:50 PM (about five minutes) careful trying to short this market; they're something at work that is keeping it up. It wouldn't get into any trouble unless it came back to the 1258-1257 area and didn't get turned right back up

Dec 6, 2011 2:51:10 PM EST
mike: 1263.00 reached but might just be a resting point before an attack on the 1266 area as long as 1260.75 is not broken. If that is not held then the move may have a deeper pullback but the market should be able to hold together the way it is acting on the pullbacks.

Dec 6, 2011 2:51:56 PM EST
mike: I need to get going. Have a good rest of the day, and I'll see you here in the morning

 

 

Monday- December 05, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 5, 2011 9:37:31 AM EST
mike: apologies for the late start, lots of problems this morning including this PC not wanting to work correctly. A pullback to the 1258 area will need to hold on its next test

Dec 5, 2011 9:47:56 AM EST
mike: there should be a turn close to the top of the hour, don't trust long side as 1258 should be broken. 1261 is resistance that needs cleared and held

Dec 5, 2011 9:55:23 AM EST
mike: this will stay in an uptrend as long as 1260.50 is held

Dec 5, 2011 10:01:34 AM EST
mike: the 10 AM turn especially if 1260 is broken again

Dec 5, 2011 10:15:29 AM EST
mike: a trading range with a bullish bias up here so far. 1262 has a small support, if broken 1259.50-1258.50 area is key to stay over or reverse back up from. If that is broken and not quickly reversed then things will be turning bearish for at least a little bit

Dec 5, 2011 10:31:08 AM EST
mike: 1263 was last listed resistance for the ES coming into the day, the last push up came from that area and it should hold now for a trend up to continue. A pullback if broken

Dec 5, 2011 10:40:18 AM EST
mike: 1263.75-1263.00 area below needs to hold on a pullback to keep the upside intact. stalling out but if there is one more push it up to 1268 that could give a small reversal. A two point pullback is about as far as a pullback should go to keep this strong

Dec 5, 2011 10:48:29 AM EST
mike: the pullback held just over 1263.75 but the 1266 level needs to be cleared soon or else a deeper drop is coming-down to 1263 or so

Dec 5, 2011 10:59:39 AM EST
mike: 1263.00 reached now look for resistance at 1264.50-that needs to be exceeded to get upside back in gear. If that is sold then a break of 1263 will be likely

Dec 5, 2011 11:09:08 AM EST
mike: they are trying to base out at 1263 support/old resistance and should be bullish as long as that holds. Just watch 1264.50 area for some selling

Dec 5, 2011 11:20:39 AM EST
mike: from 1263 up to 1264.50 was sold in a quiet market. Need to push through that or we can reverse up here

Dec 5, 2011 11:22:07 AM EST
mike: 1261.50 area would be the next support on a push through 1263 that holds

Dec 5, 2011 11:27:19 AM EST
mike: reach 1261.50 -now 1263 area should be sold if we are rolling over

Dec 5, 2011 11:35:15 AM EST
mike: 1263 area reached- should be pivotal. 1261. 50 is the important area to hold. If that is broken then we could go to 1258 area. I'll be back in about 20 minutes or so

Dec 5, 2011 12:13:24 PM EST
mike: the pullback tested 1261.50 on three tries and that is still the important support this afternoon. Watch for a bounce off of 1263 again. it must do so.1264.50 is still the resistance above that needs to be broken and held to break out of the top of the small range

Dec 5, 2011 12:24:13 PM EST
mike: one hour and a three point range between the updated resistance at 1264.50 on top and 1261.50 updated support on bottom. Unable to get over 1264.50 showing signs of weakening but need a push under 1263 to put some pressure on otherwise it stay in the range

Dec 5, 2011 12:42:04 PM EST
mike: I think that 1263.50 should hold here if going to make another push higher

Dec 5, 2011 12:52:42 PM EST
mike: 1264.25 is now support on a pullback that should hold to keep this grinding higher. If broken then a heads up for potential weakness

Dec 5, 2011 1:00:35 PM EST
mike: 1264.75 is now a key support on a pullback. it's been a grinding move higher and that needs to hold to keep the breakout alive and avoid some top looking action

Dec 5, 2011 1:23:52 PM EST
mike: good resistance so far today at 1266 area and the market is losing momentum again and looking bearish and headed towards 1263 again. There should be good buying down there if the market is going to end the day on a good note. A break of that and especially 1261. 50 would make this a reversal day

Dec 5, 2011 1:33:23 PM EST
mike: bounce off of 1263 but not exactly strong buying. Careful as long as this is under 1264.50-that should be bullish is broken above but some trouble if 1263 has broken and held-it has been pivotal today

Dec 5, 2011 1:43:15 PM EST
mike: from here on out today look for the bounces to fail. 1258 should be a support and then down to 1252 area if its momentum

Dec 5, 2011 1:52:32 PM EST
mike: 58.50-59.25-the resistance

Dec 5, 2011 1:57:18 PM EST
mike: should be a shorting opportunity that 1259.25 area

Dec 5, 2011 2:00:12 PM EST
mike: this can go to the 1252 area if a new low has made and not quickly reversed. 1258.50-1259.25 is still important resistance here

Dec 5, 2011 2:08:38 PM EST
mike: should stay under 1257 to keep the downtrend and selling bounces going to 1252 and maybe lower now that we have some momentum

Dec 5, 2011 2:24:42 PM EST
mike: this is as far as a bounce should go if going back down. A double bottom just above the 1252.50 support

Dec 5, 2011 2:53:45 PM EST
mike: the market traded in a narrow and quiet range before the breakdown that the high, and now looks to be doing the same at low. A push over1257 that sticks can start a move up to 1260 .50 area. But another failure and a break through 1252.50 would mean another leg down. 1257 area looks to be key to avoid some more downside

Dec 5, 2011 3:07:02 PM EST
mike: Bears will be in charge as long as they stay under 1258.50 now

Dec 5, 2011 3:10:32 PM EST
mike: 1255 should be resistance on a bounce here if it's going to head back down

Dec 5, 2011 3:22:21 PM EST
mike: should see 1248.00 and maybe 1246.75 as long as 1254.50 is not exceeded here at the end of the day. Keep an eye on the NQ as it is leading this move lower

Dec 5, 2011 3:24:27 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day. I will see you here in the morning

 

 

Friday- December 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 2, 2011 9:29:13 AM EST
mike: a gap to fade. Will be back in 10 minutes

Dec 2, 2011 9:38:02 AM EST
mike: if they break under 1254 again and don't turn right back up then the 1251 level should be seen to fill the gap- 1255-1256 resistance

Dec 2, 2011 9:45:14 AM EST
mike: 1251.75 was reached so far and they should have trouble around 1254 area if going lower

Dec 2, 2011 9:50:03 AM EST
mike: they hit 1251.75 twice which is just above yesterday's high at 1251. That will need to hold on more pullback or else an early high to be in place

Dec 2, 2011 9:59:42 AM EST
mike: three lows just above yesterday's high and so far could not fill the gap. this can go for the 1257.75-1258.50 area if they hold over 1252.50

Dec 2, 2011 10:04:05 AM EST
mike: look for selling in that resistance-1254 area now support that needs to hold

Dec 2, 2011 10:16:18 AM EST
mike: this is resistance more to lock-in profit on any Long's - 1255 is now important support on a pullback

Dec 2, 2011 10:21:41 AM EST
mike: 1257 needs to hold to keep the up side intact.

Dec 2, 2011 10:27:06 AM EST
mike: 1263.25-1264.00 *possible* at 1258 not broken/ and held

Dec 2, 2011 10:29:36 AM EST
mike: 1257.25 breaks then a high it is likely in place

Dec 2, 2011 10:37:30 AM EST
mike: it doesn't look like we going to get a trend up day if 1257 is broken

Dec 2, 2011 10:43:05 AM EST
mike: it was held at 1257.50 but looks like upside losing momentum- need the NQ to break

Dec 2, 2011 10:47:24 AM EST
mike: morning high and at the one hour into trading timeframe. it's a short here using a tight stop at or just above 58.25 which is a micro resistance area

Dec 2, 2011 10:56:08 AM EST
mike: 1255.75-1255.25 is a small support- as long as that area holds the market will stay away from rolling over and giving a reversal. Right here a test of the high needs broken through, or else it is a double top pattern for a pullback

Dec 2, 2011 11:09:35 AM EST
mike: we should have a high place and go for 1251 on this move, or a double bottom attempt. 1255.50 is resistance and should be sold

Dec 2, 2011 11:25:12 AM EST
mike: that gap was filled and there is some buying at the 51 area but this shouldn't go far by the way the chart looks. After losing momentum and pulling back, that push up to see if the high could be taken out was very quickly sold. It breaks under the 1250.75 then we should see the 1247.75-1246.75 area be an important support area.

Dec 2, 2011 11:35:02 AM EST
mike: a bit of a better bounce than expected, but so far 1255.50 area has stopped the move and is still a transition area. The market is bearish underneath

Dec 2, 2011 11:43:37 AM EST
mike: if you bought put options yesterday with me we are underwater on this trade so far but am adding one third on the bounce and will keep it over the weekend-the plan for now. We made this move into the lunchtime timeframe so should get a breakdown pretty soon if it's going to roll over further with 1247.75 as first support/target

Dec 2, 2011 11:55:07 AM EST
mike: support/ target one at the 1247 .75-1246.75 area was met, still more to go it looks. The 1243-1242 area would be next. This bounce has resistance at 1250.50-1251.25 on this bounce. It should be pivotal it appears

Dec 2, 2011 11:56:10 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 20 minutes or so.

Dec 2, 2011 12:32:32 PM EST
mike: the ES has bounced around between 1247 support area and the 1251.25 resistance area. Need a solid break out of this range -still it is under pressure as long as this stays under resistance

Dec 2, 2011 1:22:39 PM EST
mike: there must be something about this area that the market isn't sure about. first though though, a recap on how we got here. A gap up opening again on the good employment numbers wasn't a huge 30 point gap up and it was sold from the opening price for almost 15 minutes before turning up. The rally barely poked over resistance that stalled out (pointed out at that time) then the try to move higher was quickly rejected in the ES made a logical drop down to logical support that the 1246.75 low. This 1251 was the gap fill level in the ES has been gyrating around this for about an hour and is now rolling over again. they can go down and test be test the low a support but if a bounce is unable to get back over that 1251 he area and hold then this could/should last for another day and drop another 15-one he 15-20 points on the ES before this move is over on the downside. If they break out of this consolidation area on the upside instead then we could go back and test the high or even a little bit higher before topping out.

Dec 2, 2011 1:49:00 PM EST
mike: per last nights update I need to leave in a few minutes here. If you are in put options he should have added to that by one third of your position size. If ES it is under 1251 high from yesterday and the gap fill level this morning, they keep over the weekend. If not then exit and will reassess Monday morning

Dec 2, 2011 1:49:24 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day and a great weekend

 

 

Thursday- December 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Dec 1, 2011 9:29:07 AM EST
mike: per last nights update early strength should be sold into. Damage done only if 1242 is broken and then held on bounce as it turns into a new resistance \ transition area

Dec 1, 2011 9:34:00 AM EST
mike: open low at 1141.75 support and that must hold now or the trends change to down

Dec 1, 2011 9:36:54 AM EST
mike: careful along- the offer good above-a short under 1244

Dec 1, 2011 9:40:03 AM EST
mike: 1239.00-1238.50 area is the first important support below and it should be seen if they hold under 1142.50 area

Dec 1, 2011 9:45:58 AM EST
mike: there shouldn't be a lot more on the upside, could get to 1148 area but that will take some work -only if that is clear to that get a chance to try for 1152 but I kind of doubt that it's seen this morning.

Dec 1, 2011 9:52:59 AM EST
mike: 1244 area is now support on a pullback. Keep an eye on the NQ is leading will hold up as long as it's not rolling over

Dec 1, 2011 10:02:55 AM EST
mike: the pullback low at 1245.75 is now key support on a pullback-1252.50-1254 area key resistance just above where we should get a reaction back down

Dec 1, 2011 10:12:07 AM EST
mike: need to stay over 1248-1247.50 on ES and the 2306 level on the NQ to avoid a potential high up here. It's okay as long as those are held up to 1252.50-1254.00 area we should be a short if it's reached and reversed or rejected

Dec 1, 2011 10:24:46 AM EST
mike: this needs to push back over 1248.75 to try to get the upside going again. Support at 1245.75 needs to hold to have a chance to bounce back over that area

Dec 1, 2011 10:38:07 AM EST
mike: 1248.75 area was rejected and same with 2308 on the NQ so they should be turning the trend may move down to 1244 would be first important support. If they get down there they must turn it back up quickly or the upside is likely over.

Dec 1, 2011 10:46:34 AM EST
mike: held at 1244.25 and now 1246.75 is a resistance that needs clear to avoid another push lower through 1244 area- 2296 area is key on the NQ

Dec 1, 2011 11:01:38 AM EST
mike: we have a good top in place at the 9:50 AM-10:10 AM turning point and the bounces have been feeble all the way down to break at 1244 area. Sellers are in charge, a bounce will be sold even if it is a decent one. Watch the 2296 area on the NQ for a potential break area there, it could be key for the whole market as it has been leading the last two days

Dec 1, 2011 11:09:18 AM EST
mike: watch the 1247.25 area for resistance on this bounce. If it can get back over 1246 again. Those are the two minor areas that should be sold into it still vulnerable and ready for a sell off from up here

Dec 1, 2011 11:17:17 AM EST
mike: the early low broken. NQ is about to take out its. 2296.. A break and hold under 2296 on the NQ should put pressure on. A bounce of about 2.50-3.00 points on the ES should be sold

Dec 1, 2011 11:26:10 AM EST
mike: the NQ finally broke along with the ES and then get a short covering counts here but that should be sold into. The 1138.50-1138.00 is support below. The 1243.00 area should be pretty good resistance if the trend down move is going to stay -if broken a better bounce

Dec 1, 2011 11:33:21 AM EST
mike: support tested and now it will take a moved back over 1242.25-1243.00 area to break the trend down action. I will be back in about 15 minutes or so

Dec 1, 2011 11:58:24 AM EST
mike: 1242.50 updated resistance was rejected twice before being cleared and now must hold or the market will head back into a downtrend

Dec 1, 2011 12:11:27 PM EST
mike: a bounce high should be in at 1143.75 level and should come down to 1240.50 at the least as long as that is not exceeded. It looks like 2304 is the key resistance there on the NQ

Dec 1, 2011 12:35:11 PM EST
julie: This is Julie - Mike is having connection issues and will be back in a couple of minutes. He had to reboot.

Dec 1, 2011 12:55:59 PM EST
mike: sorry for being away, access to this instant message page was causing a problem. Hopefully we are set now. We have a two-sided day going and this bounce should not hold- look for resistance around 1244 on a better bounce

Dec 1, 2011 1:20:09 PM EST
mike: the ES has been holding above the 1138.50 support area and is getting a bounce from down there-but it's doubtful that the bounces going to hold. There should be pretty good resistance around 1243-1244 and if they get up there and stall out it should set up for another decent pullback. Both sides have been in play so the support-if it continues to hold- should set up a quick trade on the upside however the bounces that stall out/reverse should set up the better opportunities

Dec 1, 2011 1:34:12 PM EST
mike: the ES reach the 1244 area which should offer some resistance and potential reversal but right now it will take a break back 1242.50 in order to turn this trend back down

Dec 1, 2011 1:45:11 PM EST
mike: 1245.50-1246.00 this next resistance here. Have a reverse and break 1242.50 then things will be changing back to the downside but no damage done unless or until that happens

Dec 1, 2011 2:02:46 PM EST
mike: the uptrend is still on the move and tested the 1248 area again. there is some support at the 1246 level. More important, a break of the 1244.50 level will be needed to put a dent in the up side trend, and further it will take a break of 1242.50 in order to get the market into some trouble and potentially go back to test the 1238.50 support/low of the day. it has been a two-sided action day and best to stick with the trend on the short timeframe

Dec 1, 2011 2:11:48 PM EST
mike: the way things are shaping up it might not be a bad idea to use the resistance up here to get a few put options for a swing trade on the downside. We have complacency along with an overbought market that is at a high for this leg up. The two-way movement is a sign of indecision and could lead to a sharp drop lower pretty soon

Dec 1, 2011 2:20:46 PM EST
mike: that bounced high occurred at 2 PM also, so this good tests the 42.50area to see if buyers are going to back off, or come back and try to run this up one more time

Dec 1, 2011 2:50:13 PM EST
mike: 1244 was tested for the third time up here and it is also a transition area from this morning so as long as that holds on a pullback of market will stay in decent shape. Watch 1248 for an attempt to break out and run up to tests that 1252 resistance, or fail to break out. Both areas are key late in the day as a break of either area that holds should set the tone for the last hour

Dec 1, 2011 3:11:19 PM EST
mike: 1242.50 was tested and that should be important end of day. Keep in put options overnight as we could see a break take down to to lower lows then the 1238 .50

Dec 1, 2011 3:21:34 PM EST
mike: for this to hold together and not have a "long covering" sell off late in the day we need to see the ES stay over 1242.50 and the NQ needs to stay over 2305 area. If those are not defended in the market to get a late drop. If they can hold that no damage done even though the double top made around the 1248 resistance kind kind of says the upside is limited

Dec 1, 2011 3:23:36 PM EST
mike: I need to head out. Stay with a small but position for now. have a good rest of your day. I'll see you in the morning

 

 

Wednesday- November 30, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 30, 2011 8:57:03 AM EST
mike: I will be away at an appointment until early afternoon. my apologies

Nov 30, 2011 12:51:44 PM EST
mike: just returned home and will need a few minutes to get my bearings and a look at what has happened so far. It looks like a bump up from 1234.50 is needed right here for a pullback to 1232 could happen. This move up as resistance that could be pivotal around 1237.00-1237.50 after a quick look

Nov 30, 2011 1:17:17 PM EST
mike: the ES grind it up to 1137.25 which was in the middle of that resistance and turned down. There should be a break of 1234.50 and this is going to roll over

Nov 30, 2011 1:34:08 PM EST
mike: the NQ led the way down from the bounce high and should have resistance around 2282 on this bounce. If that is not cleared them the trend will stay down

Nov 30, 2011 2:01:38 PM EST
mike: the NQ bounce to 2281 after the last post and turned back down and is still in a downtrend along with the ES. it is 2 PM when the market should try to make the move. But it's still appears that Under 1235 and 2279 on the NQ the market is still in call bounce mode

Nov 30, 2011 2:13:08 PM EST
mike: that was a good setup for a quick short. In one of my first updates after getting back I gave 1232.50-1232.00 as a support for the ES to reach and this is now an important area to hold it looks like, or quickly reverse a broken, other wise 1228 would be seen. If short keep a tight stop

Nov 30, 2011 2:21:49 PM EST
mike: top call but it looks like the ES should hold1232.50 on a pullback.

Nov 30, 2011 2:38:47 PM EST
mike: there is some resistance at 1237 area

Nov 30, 2011 2:50:10 PM EST
mike: 1234.50-1235.0 there is as far as a bounce should do if we are going to that lower late in the day. it's hard to buy a market that's up 400 Dow points until some kind of decent pullback

Nov 30, 2011 3:24:30 PM EST
mike: should pull back from the 1239 area and test the 1236 area before one more push higher

Nov 30, 2011 3:30:48 PM EST
mike: 1236.50 so far and that should be Key to stay over to avoid a drop back towards 1232 area.

Nov 30, 2011 3:42:19 PM EST
mike: 1242 should be reversed but if not there could be another 10 points to the upside before good size turnaround occurs, likely tomorrow than today

Nov 30, 2011 3:43:47 PM EST
mike: the 1238 area is now to support at the end of the day. Have a good rest of your day. I'll see you here in the morning

 

 

Tuesday- November 29, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 29, 2011 9:30:17 AM EST
mike: this should be sold off from 1197-1198 but the trend is up unless 1192 area broken this morning

Nov 29, 2011 9:48:39 AM EST
mike: I'm not feeling well this morning so there will be fewer updates until I can shake this off. As long as 1197-1198 area not broken market still can be making a high up in this area. They would have to break 1190 order to turn negative

Nov 29, 2011 10:04:27 AM EST
mike: the ES pullback 2 points on first test of 1197.00 and then consumer confidence pushed higher. Need to hold around 1197 now or else they will have a reversal

Nov 29, 2011 10:17:12 AM EST
mike: 1202 area is next. as long the 1198-1197 area hold the market will keep its uptrend

Nov 29, 2011 10:32:19 AM EST
mike: 1202.00-1202.75 resistance number two cause a small reaction to the downside and could be a high if the 1198.50 level is broken by much.

Nov 29, 2011 10:50:19 AM EST
mike: a small double top at resistance so it's a short under the 1203 level down to 1198-1197 or lower

Nov 29, 2011 11:03:22 AM EST
mike: 1198 was tested and got a feeble bounce to 1200. Need to stay over 1198 or else the action gets toppy looking

Nov 29, 2011 11:07:23 AM EST
mike: it's a short-to turn positive the ES needs to get over 1200.25-1200.75 and hold that on a pullback, not quickly reverse

Nov 29, 2011 11:11:50 AM EST
mike: 1198.50 is now the first resistance on a bounce-or a transition area if broken by much. 1195.25 is the first support below

Nov 29, 2011 11:21:26 AM EST
mike: if 1198.50 breaks now than we have another reversal down. Need to get over 1200. area to get an attempt to push higher and not fail up here

Nov 29, 2011 11:30:27 AM EST
mike: they will need to hold over 1200, not reverse which just occurred and gave quick one point drop, to make a run for the highs . This doesn't start to break down unless 1198.50 is broken again. I need to be away for about 15-20 minutes

Nov 29, 2011 11:58:26 AM EST
mike: they went up and tested a high resistance on the ES and then was sold again. This is being led by the NQ and is a short on the bounces

Nov 29, 2011 12:13:43 PM EST
mike: Key resistance at 1202.50 on the ES and also 2227 on the NQ-they both need to be cleared or the rally fail

Nov 29, 2011 12:23:00 PM EST
mike: being led by the NQ to the downside

Nov 29, 2011 12:47:49 PM EST
mike: resistance was never cleared and we had a 3.75 point pullback two 1197.75 then after a two minute bounce we finally are some volatility. 1199.50-1200.25 area is now resistance on a bounce

Nov 29, 2011 12:58:39 PM EST
mike: a small bubble bottom, but still need a push over1199.50 area

Nov 29, 2011 1:09:46 PM EST
mike: starting to roll over fairly hard now. The NQ has been a good leader on the downside- resistance at1197 and then 1198.50 1199.50 area

Nov 29, 2011 1:22:11 PM EST
mike: they could run this market up fast if there isn't something wrong out there. Three rejections of the 1202-.1203 resistance earlier makes me think there is not much on the upside

Nov 29, 2011 1:34:09 PM EST
mike: 1199.50 held the move back, 1197 area has to hold to get another push higher but will likely be sold

Nov 29, 2011 1:36:51 PM EST
mike: 1192.50 area could be seen on this leg down as long as there isn't a good bounce from around 1194.50/double bottom area

Nov 29, 2011 1:56:39 PM EST
mike: 1195.50-1196.50 area is resistance now. We could/must bounce off of 1192.50. And still it looks like the NQ is leading the ES lower, pulling it down more than it wants to do to its weakness

Nov 29, 2011 1:59:16 PM EST
mike: 1192.50 was reached and its 1195.50-1196.50 that needs clear for the market still in trends that are down

Nov 29, 2011 2:05:13 PM EST
mike: 1195.50-1196 .25 his resistance on this bounce

Nov 29, 2011 2:27:10 PM EST
mike: the ES based out at 1192 and caught a decent bid, now needs to stay over 1194 or rollover again

Nov 29, 2011 2:50:57 PM EST
mike: bounce over. 1194 needs to hold now or we can test the low. 1198-1199

Nov 29, 2011 2:54:52 PM EST
mike: 1196.25 is a resistance here that should be pivotal. If they turn down there it's a negative

Nov 29, 2011 3:18:54 PM EST
mike: a pullback should stay over 1197.75-1197.25 to keep this little up trend intact

Nov 29, 2011 3:47:46 PM EST
mike: had a good rest of your day. FYI I won't be here until the early afternoon tomorrow as I have an appointment. Take care

 

 

Monday- November 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 28, 2011 9:22:48 AM EST
mike: We should have a rally that lasts 2-3 days before another pullback comes again. This should be a two-sided day with a high, at the least a pullback high, in the first 30 minutes or so. A good pullback after that should be bought and then. We get the new home sales number released at 10 AM this morning.

Nov 28, 2011 9:41:58 AM EST
mike: 1189.50 area is now pivotal support on pullback. There should be resistance around 1192.50-1194.00 area but the market is okay unless 1189.50 area broken

Nov 28, 2011 9:54:34 AM EST
mike: If we are going to have this early strength be sold than that 1194 area should be good resistance but more important is breaking under 1190.

Nov 28, 2011 10:03:27 AM EST
mike: need to hold the 1192 level that should be pivotal

Nov 28, 2011 10:07:25 AM EST
mike: so far the ES held at 1192.00-if that's not able to hold , then expects a bounce that follows to be sold. For now no damage done in less that breaks

Nov 28, 2011 10:21:50 AM EST
mike: we have a gap and go move to start the week. 1192.50 area is the trend up support, 1194 as minors for now. -if that breaks, market starts to get top-heavy. The 2218 area on the NQ is key over there.

Nov 28, 2011 10:28:02 AM EST
mike: the pullbacks have been 2.50 points, 2.25 points, 2.50 points, and the dip to 1193.50 just 2 points. A break of that symmetry needed to change the dynamics but it's looking top-heavy

Nov 28, 2011 10:40:01 AM EST
mike: it doesn't want to break a major area around 1197- but as long as they pullback no more than 2.75 points, the trend will stay trend up. They could roll over here if not held

Nov 28, 2011 10:46:06 AM EST
mike: the pullback was 2.75 points on the ES but if this doesn't get over 1195.50 and hold then a rollover

Nov 28, 2011 10:56:54 AM EST
mike: high should be in place, upside lost its momentum for now unless the ES gets over 1195. 1192 pivotal area would be support to hold over to avoid a bigger pullback

Nov 28, 2011 11:05:26 AM EST
mike: 1192.00 was the pullback low. A move up to 1195 area needs to keep going, not be rejected, or a high likely is in for a bit

Nov 28, 2011 11:13:27 AM EST
mike: 1195 was not able to be broken and neither was 1192.00 we need a clean break of that range to get a directional move-not ideal trading action just scalps in this range

Nov 28, 2011 11:33:54 AM EST
mike: 1192 has been silence for a while and this tiny range over the last 35-40 minutes. bounce is not able to stick on the other side until now. Watch 1194.00-1193.50 for support on a pullback. A move to 1197-1198 would be sold, or at least be a key area to get over and hold. Market will be vulnerable if that support is not held

Nov 28, 2011 11:34:19 AM EST
mike: back in about 15 minutes or so

Nov 28, 2011 12:03:38 PM EST
mike: it's turned into a "sell the bounce-cover on the dip" market up here- The NQ should be watched as a leader -could be breaking down

Nov 28, 2011 12:18:17 PM EST
mike: bounces have been sold in this range but unless 1192 on the ES is a broken (and not quickly reverse back up as it has been on tests of 1192) the market will avoid a breakdown

Nov 28, 2011 12:33:21 PM EST
mike: finally got our breakdown and now 1192-1193 area is resistance on the ES and 2222.50-2223.50 area on the NQ is resistance there. Those should be shorting areas

Nov 28, 2011 1:01:17 PM EST
mike: market was unable to even get as far as the updated resistance, so far. The market will be bearish unless that is exceeded and then held. The 1187.00-1186.50 area should be support on further weakness

Nov 28, 2011 1:27:35 PM EST
mike: this pullback should stay over the 1191 area and bounce back or else the bounce will be over

Nov 28, 2011 2:02:33 PM EST
mike: we can get a bounce from around this 1189-1188 area, but don't expect the move to hold. A good bounce should be sold into again especially around 1192-1193 area is reached and the move stalls

Nov 28, 2011 2:18:28 PM EST
mike: 1191.50 area needs broken to turn the trends down again

Nov 28, 2011 2:36:06 PM EST
mike: it looks like 1191.50 is going to be pivotal here.

Nov 28, 2011 2:43:19 PM EST
mike: 1191.50 was tested and rejected again. It will take a good move over that that isn't reverse right back down to get a move back towards 1193-1194 area. a drop down to 1187.50-1186.50 possible

Nov 28, 2011 2:52:45 PM EST
mike: the support a place to lock-in profit on shorts

Nov 28, 2011 2:53:20 PM EST
mike: 1189 .50 now is resistance

Nov 28, 2011 3:10:52 PM EST
mike: the pullback low was 1186.75-at the 1187.50-1186.50 support. The bounce failed at 1189 .25 and broke to lower lows. That 1189.50is a key resistance the rest of the day

Nov 28, 2011 3:17:34 PM EST
mike: pressure will stay on the ES as long as it stays under 1186 .50

Nov 28, 2011 3:23:53 PM EST
mike: watch 1182 area for support. 1182.50-1181.50 should hold as they support otherwise we could see a drop to 1178 no later than tomorrow morning

Nov 28, 2011 3:26:53 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday- November 22, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 22, 2011 9:29:08 AM EST
mike: needs to stay over 1186 to stay away from one more push lower. If we do push lower it should set up a decent buying opportunity/trade on the long side

Nov 22, 2011 9:29:40 AM EST
mike: next update in about 20 minutes

Nov 22, 2011 9:49:07 AM EST
mike: a reversal back down likely in the first 20-40 minutes but it is up as long as 1191 polls

Nov 22, 2011 10:05:33 AM EST
mike: 1193 will need to be exceeded and held to get upside going. 1188 area has support that needs to be held to avoid a deeper pullback towards 1186 at least

Nov 22, 2011 10:13:47 AM EST
mike: 1188 was reversed and now is key here in the early going. 1191 though as important to get over and hold to get out of potential trouble yet this morning

Nov 22, 2011 10:28:05 AM EST
mike: 1190.25 should be pivotal this morning. Needs held on a pullback or else the market will stay two-sided. If it's held then we could go for a test or break of the high

Nov 22, 2011 10:52:17 AM EST
mike: a test of 1180.50 on the ES is in the cards unless the ES can get over the 1288-1289 area Is exceeded instead

Nov 22, 2011 11:01:38 AM EST
mike: 1181.50 low so far but as long as that ES doesn't get over 1186 and hold me should see a lower low

Nov 22, 2011 11:13:37 AM EST
mike: resistance on this bounce is at 1185.75 then at 1187-which appears to be key

Nov 22, 2011 11:26:43 AM EST
mike: yesterday's low was tested and now must get the ES over 1185 to get out of this trouble. 1178-1177 area is next below if the market breaks yesterday's lows decisively

Nov 22, 2011 11:31:25 AM EST
mike: even though yesterday's low was tested and the market turned up-it is not out of trouble unless 1185 exceeded and held-that's needed to change trend

Nov 22, 2011 11:39:41 AM EST
mike: a bounce of more than 3.50 points on the ES has needed to change the dynamics. I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so

Nov 22, 2011 11:52:09 AM EST
mike: the ES needs to get over 1182.50-1183.00 area in order to turn the trend. And possibly have an early lunch time low in place. The1185 area would be next if the 1183 level is exceeded. Otherwise this stays in trend down mode

Nov 22, 2011 11:52:47 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 20-25 minutes or so. My apologies

Nov 22, 2011 12:25:03 PM EST
mike: 1193 is a good resistance area if reached again. The 1188 has now support again that needs to hold to avoid a decent pullback here

Nov 22, 2011 12:49:36 PM EST
mike: things have really turn slow but it looks like 1190 as a barrier that needs cleared to avoid another push lower towards 1186 or so. If 1190 is cleared and and not quickly reverse then a move up to 1193 could occur

Nov 22, 2011 1:03:27 PM EST
mike: if 1193 is not reacted then move towards 1196-1197 would be possible. 1190- 1189 area is support that needs to hold if they pullback

Nov 22, 2011 1:20:31 PM EST
mike: this can go for 1197-1198 area has gone as 1192.50 area is not broken

Nov 22, 2011 1:35:40 PM EST
mike: the next bounce up should be sold into. key support is at 1189.50 which must hold

Nov 22, 2011 1:47:17 PM EST
mike: that next pop up close sold at 1194 and took out the prior low at 1192 and now a trip back to 1189.50 is "must hold" or we could fall down to 1188 or lower

Nov 22, 2011 2:05:31 PM EST
mike: 1188 just about met. Resistance is now at 1190.25-1191.00 area

Nov 22, 2011 2:16:50 PM EST
mike: 1191 was rejected but if 1189.50 can hold we can see one more push to the upside before the market gets sold off again

Nov 22, 2011 2:41:14 PM EST
mike: we have a downtrend intact. That 1189.50 level has now a key resistance to get over and hold. That would break the downtrend and give us one more push to the upside that I expect to fail especially if 1191 is reached in the move runs out of gas

Nov 22, 2011 2:53:59 PM EST
mike: 1189.50 was rejected again. The market is acting tired but must get over that 1189.50 to get a bit of a better bounce towards 1191... But stays in trouble now under 1189.50

Nov 22, 2011 3:15:40 PM EST
mike: it won't be a surprise if we go back to test the 1180 area because the NQ has finally joined in with the weakness. It will take a hold under 1186.50 to have a chance. if that is taken out on a bounce, then they could make another go four 1189.50. In any case, under 1186.50 it looks like we should Stay with that side until we get down there to 1180.50 or to the 1178-1177 area.

Nov 22, 2011 3:17:58 PM EST
mike: 1186 .50 was rejected on the first test, so that downdraft could still occur. Have a good rest of your day and I will "see" you here in the morning

 

 

Monday- November 21, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 21, 2011 9:31:20 AM EST
mike: it's going to be a sell the bounce - there should be some short covering bounces also. The ES has taken out the key support high had, and I didn't do numbers lower than here but that's support is around 1188 and then 1182 if things get ugly. The 1202 area is the first decent resistance

Nov 21, 2011 9:43:19 AM EST
mike: 1188 his small support, market is vulnerable under 1198 area

Nov 21, 2011 9:52:15 AM EST
mike: the NQ is leading again and stays in a downtrend under 2212-it's the 1293 area on the ES

Nov 21, 2011 9:56:58 AM EST
mike: ES stays in a stair step downtrend unless there is a bounce of more than 3.50 points and not quickly reversed. That's currently 1192.50

Nov 21, 2011 10:08:24 AM EST
mike: 1189.50-1190.50 is resistance now that needs clearing and then held on a pullback to change the early trend. Otherwise 1282 could be seen today

Nov 21, 2011 10:08:47 AM EST
mike: back in 10 minutes

Nov 21, 2011 10:22:19 AM EST
mike: first decent bounce started at the right time frame but failed. This is under pressure unless the 1192-1193 zone is is exceeded and then held on a dip.

Nov 21, 2011 10:43:55 AM EST
mike: still it is a trend down

Nov 21, 2011 10:45:07 AM EST
mike: unless they take out 1190 and hold that on a pullback. Need to see a move up with some gusto for this couldn't go for 1182 area

Nov 21, 2011 10:58:25 AM EST
mike: 1182 still as possible. They must bounce pretty good off of that area and have the NQ rally back well also on the market will still be in trouble. 1188 area is a resistance now

Nov 21, 2011 11:04:07 AM EST
mike: 1182 tested-1186 is trend down resistance now on a bounce. 1178 area would be next support

Nov 21, 2011 11:14:49 AM EST
mike: the ES turned up from 1181.50-just under the key support-and a bounce almost reached resistance at 1186. A pullback should hold 1184 are to keep that has a low

Nov 21, 2011 11:26:31 AM EST
mike: 1184 days to hold- still it is a negative trading under 1187-1188

Nov 21, 2011 11:32:27 AM EST
mike: the bounces have no good strength to keep pushing higher so far. If they break down to test the low, it will need to be reversed almost immediately the way this has acting today

Nov 21, 2011 11:43:39 AM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NQ as it is weaker and could pull that ES to a new

Nov 21, 2011 11:58:20 AM EST
mike: bounces are still being sold as soon as the move up stalls out and begins to go sideways for a minute or so. 1183 needs to hold on a pullback-1186 is resistance that needs exceeded and held to start a decent move higher. Otherwise it is another failed bounce

Nov 21, 2011 12:09:39 PM EST
mike: it looks like it's in slow motion but at a key spot here. If this stays under 1185.50 we can go to 1183 and maybe a bit lower.

Nov 21, 2011 12:20:16 PM EST
mike: pullbacks should hold the 1184.00-1183.50 area now or else this rolls over. It would set up one more test of 1182 or maybe the lows. Good resistance or at least key at 1187-1188

Nov 21, 2011 12:35:23 PM EST
mike: should fail at under 1185 if going to get another pullback here

Nov 21, 2011 12:53:44 PM EST
mike: a tough call but the market is very oversold when using today's data-it was in a minor oversold condition come into the day. We have a double bottom at a major support around 1185, S&P 500 cash and just under the 1282 downside target/support early in the day. On the other side the ES failed on bounces of just six points so far. A good rally would be double digits on the ES at least. Anyhow, the market is holding on the pullbacks so as long as 1184 holds the market will some trouble. A push through 1187 that holds is needed to get a short covering bounce going

Nov 21, 2011 1:06:53 PM EST
mike: there was a good buying at 1184 and now has long as that holds we could get a breakout on the upside-especially if the NQ keeps its strength.

Nov 21, 2011 1:17:04 PM EST
mike: 1186.50 area is now support that needs to hold to keep the upside intact

Nov 21, 2011 1:26:37 PM EST
mike: the ES held at 1186.75 and the trend stayed up and we got to 1189.00 so far. Pretty soon we should see some pullback, and 1186 .50 is a transition area that will need to hold or be reversed, or else the trends will then turn back down

Nov 21, 2011 1:35:10 PM EST
mike: should have afternoon high in place and it's possible a bounce here but it will set up a short on a bounce to a test of/or a lower high that stalls out or shows rejection

Nov 21, 2011 2:02:40 PM EST
mike: a bouncer to 1185 area should be sold now if still weak

Nov 21, 2011 2:14:58 PM EST
mike: when they made it through 1185 a squeeze hire kicked in. This could go to 1191-1192 area have it gets one more run higher before there is a reversal.

Nov 21, 2011 2:19:49 PM EST
mike: 1192 reversed and now 1187 is support on a pullback

Nov 21, 2011 2:39:16 PM EST
mike: pullbacks held at 1188.75 and that is a key support. if th double top is taken out then 1194 could be seen but that should be about as far as they go

Nov 21, 2011 2:51:10 PM EST
mike: 1194 just missed and now 1191 needs to hold to keep uptrend

Nov 21, 2011 3:02:37 PM EST
mike: 1191 was broken and so far held. They need to get back over 1191 or the market still is vulnerable

Nov 21, 2011 3:25:01 PM EST
mike: there should be a pullback from 1194 to around 1190. 1190 will need to hold to not see a late drop

Nov 21, 2011 3:28:01 PM EST
mike: they got over 1194 so 1196 area should be as far as this goes before a reversal back towards 1192 .50 or thereabouts

Nov 21, 2011 3:28:46 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day. I'll see you in the morning

 

 

Wednesday- November 16, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 16, 2011 9:30:00 AM EST
mike: a short covering bounce will set up a short when the move stalls out, shouldn't up too much. Yesterday's low should be taken out

Nov 16, 2011 9:43:41 AM EST
mike: yesterday's low was taken out by just a little bit. This bounce should having trouble up here near 1247.

Nov 16, 2011 9:47:34 AM EST
mike: the ES stall out just under 1247. 1243.50 is support that will need to hold to keep the short covering bounce going or else a high in place for now

Nov 16, 2011 9:55:26 AM EST
mike: they held at 1241.75 and is now a key support this morning. This move should fizzle out up here no farther than 1250 area at appears

Nov 16, 2011 9:59:46 AM EST
mike: that should be the early bounce high made 26 minutes into trading if they can push under 1245 and not turn right back up

Nov 16, 2011 10:02:58 AM EST
mike: little double top like yesterday so that should be a decent high for now

Nov 16, 2011 10:10:10 AM EST
mike: 1243.50 updated support needs to hold-it shouldn't-but if so a test of the high that stalls is still a good short

Nov 16, 2011 10:24:40 AM EST
mike: the ES reached 1243.00 on the last pullback and turned up and bounce to test the failed so far. 1243 needs broken now to put some pressure on if we are going to see 1238 on this move down

Nov 16, 2011 10:37:07 AM EST
mike: stay with shorts under the 1246.50-1247.50 area-a move down to test and 1240.50 should be tested and maybe go for 1238 Before a decent buying can come in

Nov 16, 2011 10:42:37 AM EST
mike: 1246.25 was the bounce high so far and that needs clear to push towards 1249-1250

Nov 16, 2011 10:48:01 AM EST
mike: 1249 reached, 1250.50 is as far as a countertrend bounces should go. 1246 should be support now

Nov 16, 2011 10:56:47 AM EST
mike: 1250.50 was reached and now 1253 would be next if no turn down from this area. 1248 is now support

Nov 16, 2011 11:08:14 AM EST
mike: 1253 reached. It should back off a bit but no damage done unless 1251 is broken. 1249. Even more important

Nov 16, 2011 11:20:45 AM EST
mike: the ES stopped at yesterday's closing range so far and should turn trends if 1251 breaks .

Nov 16, 2011 11:31:01 AM EST
mike: I have to be away for a bit as we have a minor emergency with Julie. Should have a high in place if 1251 not held. I'll be back ASAP

Nov 16, 2011 12:02:55 PM EST
mike: 1251 was broken and then it turned into resistance on a bounce. That should be pivotal resistance now-needs to be cleared and held to get out of this downtrend

Nov 16, 2011 12:18:00 PM EST
mike: the ES 1249.50 area will need cleared and held here to try to turn the trends up.if it is clear in a pullback to 1249 gets turned up trade on the long side with a tight stop. Not great action since reversal at yesterday's closing range

Nov 16, 2011 12:27:01 PM EST
mike: 1249.50it is important here-we get another push to lower if we stay under that

Nov 16, 2011 12:27:55 PM EST
mike: 2352 is so low on the NQ to watch-

Nov 16, 2011 12:38:44 PM EST
mike: breakout to the upside should make a decent run up-1249.50 is solid support now for the market to avoid trouble

Nov 16, 2011 12:48:40 PM EST
mike: that pullback held at 1250.25 and between 1250.25 and 1249.50 that area needs to hold or the next bounce will fail. they would need to get over 1252.50 and hold

Nov 16, 2011 12:58:35 PM EST
mike: the pullback was a little more than we should have been to have a good bounce stick so look for a decent pullback after this current move up runs out of steam I've especially near 1250.54 a tiny bit higher. I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so

Nov 16, 2011 1:32:32 PM EST
mike: 1257 is possible on this move up but 1253.50 to support it needs to the held. 1255 is a minor resistance

Nov 16, 2011 1:48:07 PM EST
mike: they went down to 1253.25 but turn right back up and are at that 1257 level with the old 1258 area Just above. If long book profits, a pullback to 1254.75 or a bit lower is possible

Nov 16, 2011 2:08:36 PM EST
mike: a hectic day here-sorry for being away. we have a rejection of the 1258 area again. the 1254.75 level was barely taken out but market looks like it stopped up here in a pullback coming. Might be one more test of the high but thereafter should pull back back now

Nov 16, 2011 2:12:59 PM EST
mike: a drop down to either 1252.50 or 1250 area is likely here

Nov 16, 2011 2:33:56 PM EST
mike: a short under 1255.50 bounce high-could go to 1252 or the 1250 If symmetry holds

Nov 16, 2011 2:53:14 PM EST
mike: 1250 area reached. A bounce should not take out 1252.50 and hold now

Nov 16, 2011 3:00:26 PM EST
mike: too much going on here today. Hope you had a good trading day in any case. I am cutting out. Have a good rest of your day. I'll see you here tomorrow morning most likely a bit after the open. Take care

 

 

 

Tuesday- November 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 15, 2011 9:28:55 AM EST
mike: first pullback should hold over 1242 and get turned up with shorts

Nov 15, 2011 9:38:36 AM EST
mike: shorts cover - this bounce should fail to take out 1252 area and hold. 1247 area support

Nov 15, 2011 9:49:24 AM EST
mike: the ES should turn down here from under 1254- will reverse only on a break of 1248

Nov 15, 2011 9:52:43 AM EST
mike: 1250 needs to hold or an early high can be in place-

Nov 15, 2011 10:00:19 AM EST
mike: 1254 is resistance to be aware of- need to clear that or 1250 gets broken and maybe 1248

Nov 15, 2011 10:05:45 AM EST
mike: the ES made a double top just under the 1254 resistance and broke the stair step up pattern so a high in the first 20-40 minutes in place likely to the patterns of late-

Nov 15, 2011 10:13:54 AM EST
mike: the ES would need to get back over 1250 and hold over that to get out of trouble-it is at 2344 on the NQ

Nov 15, 2011 10:27:14 AM EST
mike: it looks like1248 should pivotal now-needs clear and held-the NQ has been a leader again this morning and has firmed up some

Nov 15, 2011 10:33:13 AM EST
mike: for now the market is bullish as long as 1248 is held

Nov 15, 2011 10:39:13 AM EST
mike: still look for resistance up at 1252-1253 area on the ES- that should be strong and also important area for the afternoon action

Nov 15, 2011 10:49:56 AM EST
mike: market is trying to make up its mind which direction to make a break out. There is a double top at initial resistance at the1253.50-1254.00 area to clear on the upside in the 1247.50 on the downside. Since the high was made about 25 minutes into trading and should be taken seriously but just don't overstay short side unless a breakdown

Nov 15, 2011 10:53:38 AM EST
mike: 1248 pullback low so far but it looks like pressure on under 1250 right now

Nov 15, 2011 11:02:23 AM EST
mike: pressure on under1248-and break the 1245.50-1245.00 area would break the trading range on the downside and head towards 1242 area

Nov 15, 2011 11:03:07 AM EST
mike: I'll be back in about 15 minutes or so

Nov 15, 2011 11:36:23 AM EST
mike: 1242 area tested and that needs to hold or we could still see 1238 area on this leg down. 1246 area has resistance now

Nov 15, 2011 11:55:14 AM EST
mike: if they push over 1245.50 and can't hold, then we could get a better bounce up to 47.25 or a bit higher than for coming back now again. But that is key resistance here-1245.50

Nov 15, 2011 12:03:07 PM EST
mike: not sure what caused that run up other than shorts covering however it looks like it low is in place in buying a pullback in order now. 1245 area should be good support

Nov 15, 2011 12:30:26 PM EST
mike: a pretty powerful move off of the 1242 area (1241.75 low) with good momentum. A pullback to around 1248.50 area should hold now to keep this going

Nov 15, 2011 1:00:16 PM EST
mike: keep an eye on the 1257.50-1258.50 area for resistance.1253-1252.50 area is support that needs to hold

Nov 15, 2011 1:04:40 PM EST
mike: a pullback off of a high should be no more than 3.00-3.50 points on the ES now to keep this upside momentum. Buy the dips until something changes. Any shorts should be quick stops now

Nov 15, 2011 1:08:38 PM EST
mike: 1254.25 area needs to hold now or things can change since we had a reaction from the 1258 area

Nov 15, 2011 1:19:29 PM EST
mike: that 1254.50 low his about as far as this pullback should go without changing the trends. this 1258 area should be hard to get through

Nov 15, 2011 1:45:30 PM EST
mike: the 1254.25 support that was given was the exact low on the pullback and now 1258.00-1258.50 West push through. Now 1256.25 is trend up support

Nov 15, 2011 2:11:02 PM EST
mike: the market is hanging in there right now but needs to stay over 1257 to stay real strong but go no further than 1256.25 at the very lowest now. We did see 1262 in this and push higher one more time-must stay over 1257 to do so I think

Nov 15, 2011 2:18:29 PM EST
mike: the new high was sold so now 1257 needs to hold who are the trend aborts

Nov 15, 2011 2:24:01 PM EST
mike: 125450- 1254.00 to be in the cards

Nov 15, 2011 2:25:49 PM EST
mike: 1258 will need to be clear/held to get a strong uptrend intact

Nov 15, 2011 2:55:58 PM EST
mike: the ES kind of got stuck between 1258 and 1256. as long as1256.50 is held the market avoids a late drop to at least 1252 area. if 1258 has held we could see 1262-1263 if there is not a trouble top made at 1260.25

Nov 15, 2011 3:00:45 PM EST
mike: it's holding over 1258 and as long as that isn't broken a chance to put together another push higher

Nov 15, 2011 3:04:45 PM EST
mike: the ES that its push higher

Nov 15, 2011 3:06:54 PM EST
mike: would look for either a reversal or rejection from around 1263 to set up a short the last 30 minutes. If no sign of a turn then the move could run into the close

Nov 15, 2011 3:28:52 PM EST
mike: this only runs into trouble if 1259 is broken and not quickly reversed. run up to 1263.75 area is a possibility

Nov 15, 2011 3:30:50 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day-how see you here tomorrow morning shortly after they open

 

 

 

Thursday- November 10, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 10, 2011 9:30:43 AM EST
mike: another big emotional open-good resistance around 1245 on ES and 2343 area on NQ

Nov 10, 2011 9:35:53 AM EST
mike: the NQ broke down first and should be a later on downside

Nov 10, 2011 9:38:19 AM EST
mike: small support at 1236.50-I'll stay with NQ

Nov 10, 2011 9:42:01 AM EST
mike: the 1240.50 area should be pivotal level

Nov 10, 2011 9:43:01 AM EST
mike: .NQ still the better trade on short side

Nov 10, 2011 9:48:58 AM EST
mike: 1238 is now key support for the morning. If broken and not quickly reverse them down to 1236.50 and maybe to 1233.50-1242 is the good resistance that must be cleared/held

Nov 10, 2011 9:55:35 AM EST
mike: 1236.50 reach and 1233.50 will be next as long as this has the NQ pushing lower

Nov 10, 2011 10:01:56 AM EST
mike: 1233 .50 reach so far-1238 now his resistance on a bounce-1128.50-1127 .50 is the next support

Nov 10, 2011 10:04:56 AM EST
mike: Key tests here-the turns have been coming about 30 minutes into the day and that will make the low here in important hold or things can be changing

Nov 10, 2011 10:11:08 AM EST
mike: 1238 rejected on the first test-we had a low support about 30 minutes into the trading day and this is the first bounce to test this recent pattern. Unless 1238 gets cleared and held the market is still vulnerable

Nov 10, 2011 10:20:35 AM EST
mike: first attempt to make a bottom failed then this still needs to get the NQ turned up by getting of 2312-2313 and also the ES needs to get back over 1234 and hold that on a pullback. 1228.50-1227 .50 next support on a push down

Nov 10, 2011 10:33:39 AM EST
mike: 1228 support area tested and broken- this is still bearish unless 1233 area exceeded/held-1223 low area from yesterday is the key support and maybe a magnet on the downside

Nov 10, 2011 10:44:23 AM EST
mike: the two deep pullbacks on Monday and Tuesday 17 points and 19.50 point an from there they made a bottoming pattern around noon before turning up. So far we have a 17 point drop off of the 1243.00 early high but no bottoming pattern here. Anyhow, a move over 1233 should take some pressure off-still a vulnerable market unless that occurs but not a time to be very aggressive on the short side down here

Nov 10, 2011 11:18:04 AM EST
mike: sorry, lost connection. a pullback needs to stay over 1230 -now

Nov 10, 2011 11:20:35 AM EST
mike: still looks like a short under 1233 -that looks like pivotal resistance

Nov 10, 2011 11:35:27 AM EST
mike: three tests of 1233 were rejected, 1230 to support it needs to hold to avoid going to 1228 area-if it's pushed through 1233 and holds then 1236 might be reached

Nov 10, 2011 11:43:21 AM EST
mike: still has a chance to get to 1236.50 but should be some resistance there or around 1238

Nov 10, 2011 11:47:23 AM EST
mike: support should be at 1233 area - if not held then 1230 would be next and is an important support area the rest of the afternoon.

Nov 10, 2011 12:00:33 PM EST
mike: the drop off of the high too low was 18.50 points on the ES- right about in the middle of the two other big drops from the early high this week and was also close to a test of yesterday's low and now back in bullish mode. If this plays out like the other two days then move up would be 20-22 points off of a low. That will only happen or have a chance if the 1235 area and hold

Nov 10, 2011 12:01:54 PM EST
mike: if that breaks, trends and rollover and go to test 1233. I will be back in about 10 minutes or so

Nov 10, 2011 12:28:47 PM EST
mike: market acting tired and a pop-up should be a short list stops around 1239-1237-1238 area is a good resistance

Nov 10, 2011 12:33:50 PM EST
mike: the NQ is back to being the weak link and should lead the ES on the downside. It has resistance at 2306 and the ES has resistance around 1235

Nov 10, 2011 12:51:42 PM EST
mike: watch 1236 for potential turn back down

Nov 10, 2011 12:55:49 PM EST
mike: this move will stay intact as long as 1234.50 area is held-not a move to fade yet

Nov 10, 2011 1:07:51 PM EST
mike: should be a hit here that the market is still range bound

Nov 10, 2011 1:09:14 PM EST
mike: 1234.50 area would be next if 1236 cannot hold

Nov 10, 2011 1:13:35 PM EST
mike: the market is starting to act a bit like yesterday, so look for a pullback to hold around 1238.00-1237.50 area now

Nov 10, 2011 1:17:49 PM EST
mike: and move up to the 1246-1247 area would be 22 points off of the low and about equal to the biggest bounce we had on Monday and Tuesday reversals back up. That symmetry held on the downside and should be someone important on the upside also

Nov 10, 2011 1:26:47 PM EST
mike: 1241-1240 needs to hold or we can go back to 1238-1237.

Nov 10, 2011 1:39:28 PM EST
mike: 1240.25 held on the first pullback-not it is important-like a pullbacks up here

Nov 10, 2011 1:52:51 PM EST
mike: market acting a bit top-heavy and had a almost 20 point run-up of the low. At 1244 should be a high but if exceeded then we could still see the 1246-1247 area before the top is made. In any case look for another bounce from this 1237-1236 area and then a reversal on a test of either 1243- 1244 area or from the 1247 1248 area

Nov 10, 2011 2:01:37 PM EST
mike: if the market is going to roll over again it should come from here around 1242

Nov 10, 2011 2:11:23 PM EST
mike: watch for support on this drop at around 1234 area and a decent bounce attempt should follow or else the market is in bad shape again.

Nov 10, 2011 2:20:11 PM EST
mike: if they pop up to 1240.50-1241.00 area and show some rejection, look for another pullbacks two 1237. Or lower

Nov 10, 2011 2:28:48 PM EST
mike: as long as bounces stay under 1240.50 area market is a short. It takes a break and hold over that area to get the market of potential trouble this afternoon

Nov 10, 2011 2:55:37 PM EST
mike: keep an eye on at 1240.50 area this afternoon. Unless that is exceeded the market is vulnerable to more sell off this afternoon. If instead 1240.50 is broken and a chance to go to 1244 or higher is possible

Nov 10, 2011 2:56:11 PM EST
mike: I need to be away the rest of the afternoon. I'll see you here in the morning. Have a great rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday- November 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 8, 2011 9:29:41 AM EST
mike: we have yet another big up open and will be sold- 1268 resistance

Nov 8, 2011 9:49:04 AM EST
mike: it's a sell around the 1266 Area with tight stop or buy down around 1259-1258

Nov 8, 2011 9:51:01 AM EST
mike: a better short as it looks like an early high to be in place

Nov 8, 2011 10:04:12 AM EST
mike: I will be away for part of the morning - just not sure exactly when. Right now to there will be no reversal in less 1264 area is broken. Resistance here at 1268 it is important -if not cleared then 1264 could be tested

Nov 8, 2011 10:09:11 AM EST
mike: the ES tested 1264 and held so for 1267.75-1268.50 is big resistance this morning

Nov 8, 2011 10:19:40 AM EST
mike: don't expect this bounce to hold-1264.50 that is pivotal-it needs to be clear / held

Nov 8, 2011 10:33:10 AM EST
mike: the last bounce failed at 1264.25 and fell quickly to 1256-bounces should be sold from 1261-1262. Now if they get that far and stall or reverse. I need to be gone for 30 minutes my apologies

Nov 8, 2011 11:05:49 AM EST
mike: the ES moved up to 1262.00 and then it dropped 4.50 points to 1257.50-then a bounce back to 1261.00 failed to times-the Bears are in charge under the 1261-1262 zone

Nov 8, 2011 11:17:44 AM EST
mike: 1257 area now has resistance on a bounce. 1251.50. Should be a key support to avoid going to 1248 or lower

Nov 8, 2011 11:24:01 AM EST
mike: 1252.00-1251.50 on the ES - and the 2359.00-2358.00 area on the NQ our initial support and need to hold will allow him down through the next support around 1248

Nov 8, 2011 11:25:40 AM EST
mike: that said the market is still under pressure as long as the ES stays under 1254

Nov 8, 2011 11:27:53 AM EST
mike: 1251.50 low so far. Have 1254 has exceeded then a move up to 1256 as possible

Nov 8, 2011 11:49:16 AM EST
mike: both the ES and the NQ tag their initial support areas and bounce back tentative. 1254 level now needs to hold

Nov 8, 2011 12:31:19 PM EST
mike: we should get a pullback from up here but the market is back to acting strong again. A pullback should hold 1254 on the ES in the market is going to stay in good shape

Nov 8, 2011 1:10:39 PM EST
mike: the ES, and more so the NQ, were in rising wedge patterns but on the drop down to 1255 on the ES they refuse to follow through and test/break the 1251.50 low of the day. They have tested the 1259.00-1259.50 area three times now and back of so we could still drop down to tests that low, but will need to slice through 1255 easily instead of quickly reversed right back up

Nov 8, 2011 1:12:31 PM EST
mike: for now the market is a short on bounces that stop at the 1258-1259 area

Nov 8, 2011 1:28:02 PM EST
mike: 1255 was broken but then quickly reverse back up and we are at the 1258-1259 zone-if no reversal down through 1258 then we could see 1261-1262 area

Nov 8, 2011 1:28:59 PM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 30 minutes again, back around 2 PM hopefully. My apologies, it's one of those days...

Nov 8, 2011 2:07:49 PM EST
mike: it's tempting to short up here, however the rallies have been vicious and the pullbacks haven't yielded a whole lot.

Nov 8, 2011 2:08:53 PM EST
mike: a short under 1266 might be okay, but a test of the 1262-1261 area that holds should set up a bounce of some sort of things haven't changed

Nov 8, 2011 2:29:28 PM EST
mike: third time up here, need to push through1268 .50 to bring in more short covering and give a run towards 1273 area

Nov 8, 2011 2:31:28 PM EST
mike: 1266.50 is now supported that needs to hold, and 1263.50 area is the trend up support this afternoon

Nov 8, 2011 3:19:20 PM EST
mike: the ES stayed in a four point range for almost an hour and now is making higher highs. The market has been buying on every dip so as long as the 1267 area is held the market should avoid trouble and possibly push on up towards 1272.25-1273.00 before this encounters any kind of resistance. Even then be careful of your trying to short has has had momentum on every push higher today

 

Monday - November 7, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


Nov 7, 2011 9:22:52 AM EST
mike: 1243 area was bought an hour ago-that's the key area on the first pullback. 1252-1253 first good resistance

Nov 7, 2011 9:41:09 AM EST
mike: 1254 rejected- 1250.50 would need to break to roll over- 1247.50 is the trend support

Nov 7, 2011 9:47:22 AM EST
mike: 1250.50 was held by half a point -1253 is now support that needs to hold on a pullback

Nov 7, 2011 9:55:32 AM EST
mike: 1253 acted as support by holding- but this pop-up should fail by 10:05 AM at the latest or around 1257-1258 if going to have a decent drop today

Nov 7, 2011 10:00:46 AM EST
mike: a bounce is a short now- 1250.50-1249.50 should be keys on a pullback

Nov 7, 2011 10:05:41 AM EST
mike: the bounce back to1254.25 was sold that should be a high in place at 1256.00-a great 1247.50 area should put pressure on

Nov 7, 2011 10:21:01 AM EST
mike: 1253 area rejected again-the NQ was getting a bit weaker and should lead any downside move that might break at 1247 support-would open the door for a test of 1243-1242 area

Nov 7, 2011 10:33:50 AM EST
mike: holding under 1249 on the ES and 2346 on the NQ should keep pressure on- if those are clear a bounce shouldn't be more than 4.25 points of the low on the ES if going to hold the down trend

Nov 7, 2011 10:40:43 AM EST
mike: very weak market after the high just before 10 AM. a low made at the 1243.75 support area so far, a break of that gets 1238 as the next key support area. 1249 and is now resistance on a bounce

Nov 7, 2011 10:53:55 AM EST
mike: this attempt to hold the 1243 area needs to get a boost and move over 1248 soon or else go towards 1238

Nov 7, 2011 11:05:35 AM EST
mike: might have a low in place if a move over 1245.75 that is not easily rejected

Nov 7, 2011 11:15:27 AM EST
mike: 1246.75 was cleared so that low at 1243.50-even more important at 1241.50- is a trend down support that needs to hold for a lunchtime low. They could move on up to 1249-1250 area on a decent bounce but likely not stick-if the market is still in weak hands

Nov 7, 2011 11:22:48 AM EST
mike: unable to hold gains, if no double bottom is made then the ES goes for 1138 before any bounce. a bounce will be sold into

Nov 7, 2011 11:28:00 AM EST
mike: my fault for not seeing this but 1247.00 was the bounce high and resistance was 1246.75-so the trend down move stays in force under 1247.00-bears in charge in less that is broken-

Nov 7, 2011 11:34:42 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for 10 or 15 minutes 1244.55-1245.50 resistance on bounce

Nov 7, 2011 11:56:37 AM EST
mike: as long as the ES stays under 1245.25-1245.50 area the downside symmetry will stay intact to keep this in down mode

Nov 7, 2011 12:15:15 PM EST
mike: a very sloppy trading range with that 1245 .25 not exceeded yet-in fact it was rejected. The market stays in "sell bounces" as long as that resistance has not exceeded

Nov 7, 2011 12:20:41 PM EST
mike: fixed support at 1239.00-1238.50 and a broken they can go for 1232 area. if they bounce up to 1241 they should be be sold

Nov 7, 2011 12:28:26 PM EST
mike: from here at 1237.50 low that ES would need to get over 1242.50 area

Nov 7, 2011 12:44:47 PM EST
mike: it should stop around the 1241 level to keep the downtrend intact. A. cluster of resistance there so it should be key

Nov 7, 2011 1:18:27 PM EST
mike: look for a pullback to the 1240.50 area to hold on a pullback-as the market has turned bullish. 1244.25 area is a small resistance to look for a pullback from

Nov 7, 2011 1:37:52 PM EST
mike: it looks like 1242 days to hold or they'll drop down to 1240.50 to see ifthe breakout area can hold

Nov 7, 2011 1:58:12 PM EST
mike: not sure the reason for the big move out of the blue, but this next pullback holds the 1244 area is should set up a good buying opportunity

Nov 7, 2011 2:13:04 PM EST
mike: 1248.00-1247.50 area now is support that needs to hold

Nov 7, 2011 2:14:38 PM EST
mike: 1254.75 is a good resistance on another pop-up

Nov 7, 2011 2:21:45 PM EST
mike: the pullbacks held at 1247.75 and that it is a important level to stay over

Nov 7, 2011 2:49:13 PM EST
mike: the ES has been stuck between 1251.50 on top and 1249.00 on the bottom. If 1251.50 is pushed through then we should go towards the 1256 and early high. If instead 1249 is broken and not quickly reversed then a drive towards the 1243 area could be in the cards.

Nov 7, 2011 3:14:13 PM EST
mike: 1256 target was met and now 1252 area needs to hold as it is a transition area and also the third breakout area on this rally

Nov 7, 2011 3:21:34 PM EST
mike: double top and place and it doesn't look good if 1252.50-1252.00 area broken and not quickly reverse back up as that is the transition area

Nov 7, 2011 3:35:06 PM EST
mike: they took out 1252 but turned right back up-will need to hold under that to have

Nov 7, 2011 3:36:49 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day! See you here tomorrow morning.

 

 

Thursday - November 03, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 3, 2011 9:30 mike: another event outside our borders to cause a big opening. A better sell for a pullback

Nov 3, 2011 9:35 mike: it's a short under 1248 for now

Nov 3, 2011 9:36 mike: 1244 first small support

Nov 3, 2011 9:41 mike: 1244.25 lo so far- will need to stay over that or could drop down to 1242 which should be key support this morning

Nov 3, 2011 9:43 mike: watch the NQ and it's 2336 area for a good resistance, market vulnerable unless that is clear

Nov 3, 2011 9:52 mike: as long as the ES stays under 1245 the market will be under pressure, 1138 and 1135 are the support levels, 1135 is the key support

Nov 3, 2011 9:53 mike: 1241 resistance on this bounce

Nov 3, 2011 10:01 mike: the 1241 resistance was sold and they pushed down to 1236.25-a move into the 1235-1234 would need to hold as a fell of the gap

Nov 3, 2011 10:10 mike: oftentimes a gap day will be a trend day. The ES dropped 18 points from its opening high so a bounce of to 1236-1237 area possible, but the market should have trouble holding gains the way this looks

Nov 3, 2011 10:23 mike: watch the 1240-1241 For resistance here, stalling out a bit and 1236 needs held on the next pullback

Nov 3, 2011 10:29 mike: pullback held at 36.25 and now both of the pullback are 3.25 points-the 1236 is a transition area now

Nov 3, 2011 10:38 mike: that should be a top area-the market is a bit nervous up here and would need to get over 1240 and hold that on a pullback-otherwise the 1247.50-1248.50 area which is strong resistance won't be seen. On the downside 1236 meets broken to get a reversal

Nov 3, 2011 10:56 mike: I was wrong about a top at 1240 area- was another three-point pullback and then 1240 was blown through and they just missed the 1247.50-1248.50 area so far. Last pullback was 3.75 points so the ES needs to continue to hold on those small pullback to keep pace

Nov 3, 2011 11:02 mike: they need to hold around that 1241 area and continue to push higher and take out 1245 for the market has a lunch time high in place

Nov 3, 2011 11:19 mike: the market has had a good bid on pullbacks so watch 1242 for support and then that he area will be staying over at 1240 area-I need to be away for about 15 minutes

Nov 3, 2011 11:41 mike: at 1247.50-1248.50 area gave a small reaction so far-would need to break and hold under 1245now to put some pressure on

Nov 3, 2011 12:04 mike: 1247.50-1248.50 turn the ES down to time and is a sell against it-it shouldn't be exceeded or this is a powerhouse move up-watching the NQ for leadership

Nov 3, 2011 12:23 mike: resistance was rejected at 1246.75 and a decent pullback to 1243.25-that 1243 area is good support and must be broken

Nov 3, 2011 12:42 mike: that was the fourth failure to push through the resistance-if there is another try and it finally gets through than the 1252 would be the next resistance to go for-but how is there is a breakout stay with the short side on bounces that stall out or reverse from near that resistance-and look at 1243 as a key support that must hold

Nov 3, 2011 12:49 mike: this move has some gusto and should be the one that pushes them through resistance force 1252

Nov 3, 2011 13:03 mike: 1248.50-1247.50 area is now support that needs to hold to avoid a reversal

Nov 3, 2011 13:09 mike: 1248.25 was a low at 1252 is still in the cards

Nov 3, 2011 13:11 mike: this can still be bought on a dip as their could be a run-up to set 1257- 1258 area still the way this is acting

Nov 3, 2011 13:29 mike: they shouldn't drop much further or will begin to get a rollover-so need a bounce from here around 1250 area

Nov 3, 2011 13:39 mike: the ES held at 1249.75 and stays in bullish mode unless broken

Nov 3, 2011 13:53 mike: at 1257-1258 expect profit-taking and a decent pullback to occur

Nov 3, 2011 14:08 mike: 1252 area should be pivotal this afternoon- 1257-1258 area is still the key resistance now

Nov 3, 2011 14:23 mike: this is acting a bit like it did when it was running up and backing away from the 1247.50-1248.50 resistance earlier in the day. Since it has turned into a trend up day on the upside-and it was a gap day-we need to keep an eye on 1252 on the bottom side and that is broken in a top will likely be in and selling against 1257-1258 new resistance would have better odds- at the moment and move through 1257 and push the ES on up to the 1262 I will be surprised if that happens but not impossible the way this has acted after the early drop-1252-1251 needs to hold

Nov 3, 2011 14:54 mike: if no quick turnaround here at 1251 then we can be breaking down a bit in the last 45 minutes

Nov 3, 2011 15:49 mike: have a good rest of your day

 

 

Wednesday - November 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 2-9:27) mike: so far the 1234.50 resistance stop the bounce- but as long as 1229-1228 area holds a little breakout higher keeps the market in an uptrend.

(Nov 2-9:36) mike: 1234.50 was reversed -that still is resistance

(Nov 2-9:36) mike: 1232 new small support

(Nov 2-9:48) mike: the ES reversed from 1234.75-just over resistance-and drop down to 1230.25 so far. That high needs to be clear or market so vulnerable to test or break 1228

(Nov 2-10:00) mike: 1228 tested. But need to get over 1230.50 to take pressure off

(Nov 2-10:11) mike: as long as the NASDAQ stays under pressure the ES is not going to rally and hold. The 2300 level on the NQ is now important support there-2310-2312 resistance that needs clear

(Nov 02-10:22) mike: stall out at resistance but it turns bullish if 2310 on the NQ gets clear and also 1232 on the ES

(Nov 02-10:33) mike: looks like the 1230.75 holds or another top in place.

(Nov 02-10:46) mike: we had a good move down from resistance on the open but since turning up from 1227 had just been chopping around until the run up from 1229.25. A pullback from the 1234.50 area still possible but a piece of pullback to 1231.50 should probably set up a trade on the long side

(Nov 02-10:50) mike: market stays in up trend now as long as 1233 holds on a pullback

(Nov 02-11:09) mike: this move has run out of gas and 1236 on the ES and 2318 on the NQ need to be support on a pullback

(Nov 02-11:26) mike: a pullback to 1236 hello and a 1239.00 was tested for the third time. need to push through 1239 soon or this can have a reversal

(Nov 02-11:31) mike: I need to be away for about 10 minutes or so. 1234 in support if a breakdown

(Nov 02-11:41) mike: I'm back. I need to leave for some appointments in about 15 minutes And will be gone for the rest of the day. My apologies

(Nov 02-11:48) mike: Two-sided action per last night update in a move down to 1234 still possible. It's a short on a bounce up to 1239 if it stalls out or it is quickly rejected

(Nov 02-11:50) mike: Fed day, so after the release look for a quick up down up, or vice versa, type of pattern and then a directional move to follow

(Nov 02-11:52) mike: 1234 still possible here. They will need to turn up fast on a test of that area or they could go back towards 1230 area.

(Nov 02-11:53) mike: I'll see you tomorrow right here. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday - November 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 01-09:39) mike: a similar day to yesterday not unexpected as stated last night that bounces should not hold. The first important resistance is up at the 1224 area on the ES and it has support at the 1208 area

(Nov 01-09:46) mike: that can be a high if 1215 is not held. That looks like important to hold

(Nov 01-09:55) mike: economic data out at the top of the hour. This could work towards 1224 if they don't drop down through 1217

(Nov 01-10:03) mike: good selling that 1221 area. 1224 is key above- And a good support still at 1215. Keep one eye on the NQ that looks like it can be the leader

(Nov 01-10:09) mike: just miss the 1224 resistance. This 1219-1218 area needs held or down to 1215 which is more important

(Nov 01-10:15) mike: should see the 1224 area get a reaction, and drop off some at least

(Nov 01-10:17) mike: it looks like 1221.25 needs to hold on this pullback

(Nov 01-10:20) mike: 1221.50 was so pullback low. that should be an important level especially if they say under 1224

(Nov 01-10:29) mike: there is some resistance at 1228. A pullback to the 1224 needs to hold on a pullback to keep the stair step higher in gear

(Nov 01-10:36) mike: the pullback held at 1224.50 so the trends are still up. They would have to turn back down and take out that 1224.50-1224.00 in order to have a reversal. 1232 area would be next resistance if 1228 gets pushed through/held

(Nov 01-10:42) mike: 1226 now needs to hold to keep the grind higher from aborting-there was good selling are on 1228

(Nov 01-10:44) mike: top should be in for a decent pullback-1224.50-1224.00 is still support that last hold

(Nov 01-10:53) mike: watch 1226.25 for resistance on this

(Nov 01-10:57) mike: if breakdown under 1223 then look for 1220.50-1220.00 for a bounce. If that is not held then a move towards 1215

(Nov 01-11:06) mike: we got the push down to 1220.50 area in this is still vulnerable unless 1224 has exceeded and held-along with getting back over 2310 area on the NQ

(Nov 01-11:10) mike: I'll be back in about 10-15 minutes

(Nov 01-11:27) mike: ES dropped down to the 1220.50 support area and made a decent bounce back. It still has to push through 1226 and hold to avoid another trip down to test that 1220 area

(Nov 01-11:46) mike: the 1220 area now important resistance. It stays in poor shape in us that is cleared and held. The 1215 is a support- however 1208 area has a big support if this drop can test the morning low

(Nov 01-11:55) mike: stay with her shorts under 1218 now-2298 area on the NQ

(Nov 01-12:06) mike: 1215 area was support then turned into resistance- that must be cleared and held along with 2292 now on tNQ or we will test the 1208 area before bottoming

(Nov 01-12:31) mike: bounces are failing per last night's update and now we could have a double bottom in place. The 1211.00-1209 .75 zone needs to hold to avoid further breakdown. He moved back over the 1218 area is needed to take some pressure off

(Nov 01-12:48) mike: unless the 1220 level is exceeded the market will stay under pressure. Stay with shorts under that level. If it exceeded along with 2301 on the NQ then things might change but not unless that occurs

(Nov 01-13:02) mike: third time down here and needs to bounce soon or go to 1208

(Nov 01-13:04) mike: 1215 is now the resistance that needs clearing and then held

(Nov 01-13:31) mike: the market finally show a good bid after testing at 1210 area for the third or or time and probably caught some shorts down there. A pullback should be a buying opportunity now.

(Nov 01-13:33) mike: if they pullback to around 1219-1218 that stalls out here-look for a pop back up

(Nov 01-13:36) mike: the probably made that move too fast to take advantage of-another drop needs to hold that area now to stay out of trouble

(Nov 01-13:38) mike: I will be back in about 10 minutes or so

(Nov 01-13:50) mike: 1228 has resistance. If cleared 1232 is possible. 1223.50-1222.50 area is small support on a pullback

(Nov 01-14:19) mike: the market made a good run off the low however unless the 1228. Is cleared this is still not out of trouble it today

(Nov 01-14:33) mike: they can drop a bit from up here, but as long as the 1223.50-1222.50 area is held the market should be okay

(Nov 01-14:53) mike: the pullback held at 1223.50, this area needs to reverse quickly or were back in trouble in

(Nov 01-15:15) mike: I need to call it a day. I will be here in the morning tomorrow, but not in the afternoon due to a doctor's appointment. Have a great rest of the day
 

 

Monday - October 31, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Oct 31, 2011 9:27
mike: today will be a breakdown day and the short side should offer the better opportunities. The better the bounce the better the short. the 1261-
1260 area is a strong support and 1272. It would be first resistance

Oct 31, 2011 9:28
mike: I probably won't have much else to say until we get through the first half hour-we will see

Oct 31, 2011 9:54
mike: 1261-1260 area was held by just under one point but unless 1265.50 is exceeded and then held the markets is vulnerable

Oct 31, 2011 10:14
mike: the ES held in the 1262 level on three tests and that's just above the important 1261-1260 support so that could be an early low. A pullback should stay over 1264.50 now and there is resistance at 1268 area to get through to avoid another reversal

Oct 31, 2011 10:29
mike: 1267 was a bounce high and the market is lower under that area. 1265 is minor in needs push through and held to take some pressure off

Oct 31, 2011 10:37
mike: the 1265 is now support that it needs to hold to have a chance to get over 1267 resistance

Oct 31, 2011 10:42
mike: should drop down to take a 1265 due to the failure to get over 1268 which is key

Oct 31, 2011 10:45
mike: 1265 was met. keep one eye on the NQ as it has been leading on the way up in the ES leading on the pullbacks

Oct 31, 2011 10:57
mike: the ES will say in a small trading range with resistance still at 1267-1268 to get through.

Oct 31, 2011 11:04
mike: I need to be away for about 10-15 minutes.-gap days are often times trend days but this is in a sideways trading range so it will take a break of the range that sticks to get anything moving in a directional move. Be right back

Oct 31, 2011 11:22
mike: right down to the major support area in small popup 1264.50-1265.00 now a small resistance. A failure there and set up a break of the low

Oct 31, 2011 11:36
mike: 64.50 was rejected and now 1263 needs to hold or a test of the key area at 1261.50-1261 75 could occur-would likely be bought in reach again

Oct 31, 2011 11:52
mike: 1263.0 was held on the pullback. The ES is still in a trading range if the 1263.50 level holds then we can move back up to the 1266.50-1267.50 area where the upside should fail if the market still weak

Oct 31, 2011 12:16
mike: 1263 area was held again, but on the other bounce that failed. that 1263 is important to hold or else a move back to the 1261-1260 area

Oct 31, 2011 12:23
mike: careful trying to buy a support-a bounce from there should fail and give us lower prices after the bounce

Oct 31, 2011 12:24
mike: I need to take a break for about 30 minutes or so. Back right after that

Oct 31, 2011 12:58
mike: 1262.50-1263.00 area should now be resistance. That would need push through and held in order to get a decent up move

Oct 31, 2011 13:12
mike: a pullback from up here needs to hold around the 1262 area

Oct 31, 2011 13:40
mike: a pullback held the 1262 support and now should try for the 1266.50-1267.00 Area for a top. 1203.50 area should be support now

Oct 31, 2011 13:41
mike: I will be back in about five or 10 minutes

Oct 31, 2011 14:03
mike: the ES tested the resistance from this morning and turned back however as long as 1264.50- 1264.00 it is not broken the market can keep its uptrend intact. If that's broken, then they bounce that follows should fail again under the 1268 resistance

Oct 31, 2011 14:28
mike: just look to sell a bounce that stalled out under 1267-1268 now

Oct 31, 2011 14:57
mike: the last bounce failed at 1265 and this should have resistance around 1266 at the highest-otherwise a test of 67.50-68.00 possible before a turn back down

Oct 31, 2011 15:05
mike: another reversal at 1265 -n 1261.50-& 1261 .00 is support

Oct 31, 2011 15:16
mike: a new low in the last hour should keep market under pressure as long as there is no break/hold over 1261.50. Stay with shorting bounces under that area.

Oct 31, 2011 15:17
mike: time for me to call it a day. I'll see you on here in the morning. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

Thursday - October 27, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 27-09:29) mike: I don't have resistance numbers up here but should be a pullback after this emotional open

(Oct 27-09:38) mike: that pop up to 1272 likely early high-short under that-there should be support around 1266

(Oct 27-09:43) mike: 1270.50. Shouldn't be cleared and held

(Oct 27-09:45) mike: at least for a bit-and moved back to 1267.50 or lower

(Oct 27-09:50) mike: 1267.50 was met but not much of a bounce careful long for now

(Oct 27-09:57) mike: trend stays down unless 1269 is cleared/held

(Oct 27-10:06) mike: 1267.50 is now resistance instead of support-pressure on under that level

(Oct 27-10:20) mike: 1267 .50 is still some resistance but market will avoid trouble if 63 is held

(Oct 27-10:30) mike: the bounce failed at 1267 in that keeps market in a downtrend-resistance now at the 1264.50-1265.25 area on the ES

(Oct 27-10:46) mike: the market finally made a decent base to bounce from 1260.75. Don't expect the bounces to go to for you for failing-1268 area it is good resistance-1272 area would be next-must hold 1260.50

(Oct 27-10:54) mike: 1263.50-1263.00 is a small transition area and it needs to hold if the market is going to push higher instead of rolling back over

(Oct 27-11:04) mike: they are stalling under the 1267.50 resistance from earlier. need to say over 12 66. The NQ needs to stay over 2367 or it starts to roll over

(Oct 27-11:05) mike: back in about 10 or 15 minutes

(Oct 27-11:57) mike: this has gone trend up and it should be in decent shape as long as the 1268 transition area has held

(Oct 27-12:04) mike: there should be some resistance around 1275

(Oct 27-12:24) mike: the market has been very strong after it basedout just over 1260 area- the double top/123 top tops this off for now

(Oct 27-12:52) mike: the 1275 resistance was reached by the consolidation and refusal to break down could be bullish but right now it's getting tired in 1272.75 needs to hold

(Oct 27-13:21) mike: the range consolidation was broken 1276 needs to hold or can break down and test 1272-which is turned up support

(Oct 27-13:38) mike: 1278 is taken out a could move up to 1282 area but a failure just as likely

(Oct 27-13:57) mike: should it do 1282 area, in a very strong market it only reversed thisF. 1276 area is taken out

(Oct 27-14:11) mike: 1282.50 was rejected and is a key resistance-here-1278 is support that needs to hold now to keep power and higher or start a deeper retracement

(Oct 27-14:17) mike: I'm still trying to recover from my time away and will need to call it a day here. 1278 held so far, that is important below as 1282.50on the top side. Have a good day, I'll see you in the morning
 

 

Wednesday - October 26, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Oct 26, 2011 9:31:10 AM EST
mike: it looks like an open just under 1241 assistance area. If not exceeded then 1230 area is still the key support today or last night's update

Oct 26, 2011 9:40:07 AM EST
mike: opening strength sold into just under a good resistance-1230.75-1230.25 is key support to avoid rolling over and going for .227 area

Oct 26, 2011 9:48:35 AM EST
mike: 1237.50 will need to be cleared/ hold to get an up trend -- keep and I on the NASDAQ for a lead

Oct 26, 2011 9:55:49 AM EST
mike: we could have a low in place. If not watch 1232.50-1232.00 for a bounce-needs to go from there on the market gets a deeper pullback towards 1227

Oct 26, 2011 10:06:08 AM EST
mike: the market still having trouble even though it ES turned up from 1233. The NASDAQ is the leader in bounces should be sold to 1227. Area

Oct 26, 2011 10:14:54 AM EST
mike: the ES test that the first target at 1227-1233. It is now a key resistance on a bounce-

Oct 26, 2011 10:18:40 AM EST
mike: 1224 would be the next support-1233 is the resistance

Oct 26, 2011 10:32:07 AM EST
mike: the pressure will stay on unless the ES gets back over 1230 and can hold that on a pullback. Otherwise it's still an ugly market to start the day

Oct 26, 2011 10:45:16 AM EST
mike: three tries to get back over 1230 and all of them failed-stay with shorts under the1230 level-pressure stays on unless that is exceeded and held

Oct 26, 2011 10:55:24 AM EST
mike: next key support at 1216.50 area. There is resistance now at 1224.75-1225.75.-That must be cleared just to take some pressure off. A trend down day in gear as long as that resistance is not exceeded

Oct 26, 2011 11:01:21 AM EST
mike: I will be back with you in about 20 -- 30 minutes. That 1216 area is major today-if that is broken they could trade down to the 1211-1210 area-back in just a bit

Oct 26, 2011 11:42:42 AM EST
mike: as long as 1223 holds now this rally can continue towards 1230 which is still a key resistance

Oct 26, 2011 12:14:29 AM EST
mike: the ES took three stats at getting through 1227.75-1228 area and failed so look for a pullback towards 1228 area, that will need to be defended

Oct 26, 2011 12:21:19 AM EST
mike: I will need to be away for about 45 minutes, I'm still trying to recuperate so bear with me in the afternoons for the rest of this week

Oct 26, 2011 13:10:16 PM EST
mike: stillhi trend down the shoreside we to get to tell 12:16 after a small bounce

Oct 26, 2011 13:31:23 PM EST
mike: 1220.50 is still a good support from the broken then the 1216 area would be in the cards.-resistance to call 28-1230

Oct 26, 2011 13:51:08 PM EST
mike: now the 1229 area will need to hold to keep from a late day drop/pullback. This move could continue to 1236 area of 1229 has not broken

Oct 26, 2011 14:04:14 PM EST
mike: 1235 met. the 1249. still must hold to keep the upside gone

Oct 26, 2011 14:14:27 PM EST
mike: watch 1233 now for key support. 1237. Is resistance

Oct 26, 2011 14:43:05 PM EST
mike: there is good resistance around 11229.50-1230.25 area

Oct 26, 2011 14:54:09 PM EST
mike: we have had a two-sided day with the low right at support-that looks like a high chess under 1140-a test on a bounce should be sold into-1236-1237 area is resistance if they can't hit back to test 1140

Oct 26, 2011 15:37:16 PM EST
mike: 1239 area needs to hold to in the day on a strong note

 

 

Tuesday - October 25, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 25-09:37) mike: good morning this should be a day where the bounces fail to hold, but could get a rally from lower levels.

(Oct 25-09:40) mike: 1244 to 1227.00 support in no time. 40.50 is an resistance1237 first

(Oct 25-09:43) mike: 36.50 is the

(Oct 25-09:47) mike: 1237.50 was bounce high,

(Oct 25-09:51) mike: 1240.50 is a resistance in these cleared/held if the reversal from 1227 support is going to be a decent low

(Oct 25-09:58) mike: consumer confidence in five minutes-1235.00-1234.50 needs to hold-and 1240.50needs clear/health to have a bullish run

(Oct 25-10:02) mike: bearish pattern short side still better odds-especially on a break under 1227

(Oct 25-10:09) mike: strange action, nothing like before I was gone.

(Oct 25-10:14) mike: looks like a move over 1236 that holds necessary to make a try for 1240.50 resistance, vulnerable otherwise

(Oct 25-10:25) mike: 1236 was taken out and 1238.75 was reached, that's just under what should be the resistance so be careful long, and has been a scalpers market this morning

(Oct 25-10:33) mike: a small pullback from just under 1240. If 1236 is not held than a move toward 1232.50 is possible. 1240 is exceeded and held than 1242 area would be next resistance

(Oct 25-10:48) mike: this slow motion move higher.just miss 1242 so far -if not cleared then 1237. Area new support

(Oct 25-10:57) mike: finally a move with a tiny bit of momentum. A bounce high should be in place with 1242 as key resistance

(Oct 25-11:09) mike: 1231.50-1230 150 supports area needs to be held--the NASDAQ now the leader on the downside

(Oct 25-11:14) mike: per last nights update-and again this morning-the bounces should not hold. 1242 and still the key resistance on a decent bounce. A break under 1231.50-1230.50 area should get the market down to test its low.

(Oct 25-11:14) mike: I will be back in an hour or so

(Oct 25-12:15) mike: the 1231.50-1230.50 area held on the pullback plan now that will be the key support for the rest of the day

(Oct 25-12:48) mike: 1233.75 is resistance down here, need a bounce off of that to avoid further breakdown

(Oct 25-13:09) mike: watch the 1239.50-1240 150 area for good resistance on this

(Oct 25-13:19) mike: 1239.50 stop the last mile of KU notes today in a

(Oct 25-13:23) mike: 1239.50-1240.50 still has resistance on the grounds, pressure should be on unless broken

(Oct 25-13:31) mike: they should cut through 1335 and headed for 1331.50-1330.50 which is key

(Oct 25-14:02) mike: folks, whether or not it's a dull market or just me, I cannot keep my eyes open this afternoon. I'm going to need to take the rest of the afternoon off. The market remains vulnerable to lay things to look, but after nine sideways for most of the day and anything goes late today. Good luck with this. I will see you in the morning.

(Oct 25-14:05) mike: keep an eye on the NASDAQ futures as they are leading the way this afternoon

 

Monday - October 24, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


Oct 24, 2011 9:33:00 AM EST
mike: good morning to its nice to be back. moved up

Oct 24, 2011 9:35:31 AM EST
mike: A failure at an initial resistance here would need to take out 1235 get anything going on that downside

Oct 24, 2011 9:48:43 AM EST
mike: the 1239.50-1239.00 zone is now a key support, the market will reverse only if that breaks

Oct 24, 2011 9:55:42 AM EST
mike: the early high should be in place if not already that in next 15 minutes

Oct 24, 2011 10:00:09 AM EST
mike: need a solid break of the 1239.50-1239.00 zone to put some pressure on as it should be pivotal early

Oct 24, 2011 10:15:23 AM EST
mike: the pullback held right at 1239.00 that's the pivotal support-it will take a break of that and also 2348. on the NASDAQ which is the leader this morning. 1244.75-1245.50. It is that's resistance

Oct 24, 2011 10:19:22 AM EST
mike: FYI-remember I have been away from the markets for the most part of the last seven weeks and it might take some time for me to get back in sync.

Oct 24, 2011 10:26:21 AM EST
mike: reaction at the second resistance trend stays up as long as 1242.75 area is not broken on this pullback. NASDAQ is still in leadership mode

Oct 24, 2011 10:43:29 AM EST
mike: upside lost momentum--still have NASDAQ as a leader and it would mean to break through 2358 to turn that down. It stays out of trouble as long as 1243.50. Is defended it should be important here

Oct 24, 2011 10:54:40 AM EST
mike: 1243.00- pullback low- if broken then trends can turned down-- that shouldn't be pivotal now

Oct 24, 2011 10:03:13 AM EST
mike: support is holding the pullbacks but the NASDAQ is also looking tired so pullback is likely from up here but need the NASDAQ to roll over

Oct 24, 2011 10:19:06 AM EST
mike: the ES held the new support on two different pullbacks and is going to stay in a breakout mode unless 1242.75. Area is broken and then turns into resistance on a bounce.be sure to keep an eye on the NASDAQ still as it is leading the rally this morning--as long as 1242.75 on the ES is defended then no damage will be done. 1250 area the next resistance.

Oct 24, 2011 10:25:12 AM EST
mike: I need to take a break. Just getting back and need to start slowly so there aren't any set backs.I will try to come on later this afternoon but cannot promise that-the market has broken out so don't fight this rally unless there is a reversal of some sort. 1246.50 should offer some support to keep the upside in tact

 

    *** Mike was very ill and in the hospital for several weeks ***
 

 

Thursday - September 22, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 22-9:13) mike: A good big volatility day. bounces shouldn't stick. the first resist 1132-1135 area, then 1142-1144.. we should get good bounce from lower, the 1120 level, 1112-1110 big area

(Sep 22-09:41) mike: high may be in. a pullback must stay over 1128 area on ES and 10800 dow cash

(Sep 22-09:48) mike: first update said "the first resist 1132-1135 area, " and mkt in trouble unless thats exceeded / held on a dip. , pivotal area this morning . 28.50-29.50 small resist now

(Sep 22-10:14) mike: the 200.50 matched globex low and is key. but still need clear 33-34 to try better turn up.

(Sep 22-10:15) mike: back in 10 min

(Sep 22-10:36) mike: watch for me turn down from 1134-1136.00 for a double top up here. if 1128.25-1127.50 area is broken, proof of a reversal

(Sep 22-10:51) mike: kind of fast to trade and update-alas bounce rejected 1133.50 which was just under resistance fell down to 1129which was just over 1128.25-1127.75 -an rebound stall at 1134.75, which is at resistance once again. it's still a short up there until broken/held

(Sep 22-10:59) mike: this is not a good price pattern, and unless1131 is exceeded and held them a drawback1122 possible on the select towards 22 area

(Sep 22-11:05) mike: the support is 1124.75 of the next support as long as 1130 is not exceeded

(Sep 22-11:16) mike: this will drift lower as long as 1127 now is exceeded and held

(Sep 22-11:26) mike: 1127.25 was rejected and that will keep the trend down unless broken and held on a pullback from down here

(Sep 22-11:36) mike: they are trying to get turned around here for a bounce, and need to stay over 1125 at the lowest to do so

(Sep 22-11:54) mike: 1128 was rejected and that was prior support

(Sep 22-11:57) mike: in the early going before the drop down to 1122.75 10 it looks like they could go down to 1120.50 low enough that 1122.75 is broken, and maybe more

(Sep 22-12:04) mike: NASDAQ still hasn't tested its low while the ES has, so unless the ES and turn up here and take that 1125 and cold come to market will stay in poor shape

(Sep 22-12:09) mike: 1122 area (old support) is now the trend down resistance now on a bounce. The NQ low today at 2175 low just missed so far

(Sep 22-12:19) mike: about still just under 1122 and the market is still in a trend move. That and the 2184 area on the NQ now need to be exceeded to take the pressure off for a bit if they hold these lows

(Sep 22-12:29) mike: since the NQ has tested its early low two times the market finally got a bit of a lift here. The bounces have been six points roughly, so this is about as far as the move should go

(Sep 22-13:09) mike: as long as they stay under 1126 then back down to 1121.00-1 120.50 or lower in the cards

(Sep 22-13:32) mike: 1121.00-1120.50 zone was easily met-and a test of the low was made-that needs to hold or be quickly reversed or the market is in trouble and could go for 1112-1110 area before it is over. A very back over 1122-1123 area needed to break the downtrend

(Sep 22-13:51) mike: a bounce to 112

(Sep 22-13:56) mike: a bounce to 1121.75 was rejected in the trend down is towards 1112-1110 area

(Sep 22-13:57) mike: in order to stay in a very weak position a bounce should be no more than five points on the ES

(Sep 22-14:08) mike: we reached the tall tan area. Watch this bounce, a stall near 1116-1117 would set up another selling opportunity, or maybe just below that. If they get over 1117 and things may change

(Sep 22-14:22) mike: 1116.25 was reached on that bounce, setting up another short, and now the ES should be on its way to test and possibly turned back up from a test of 1111-1110 area, which it just did as writing this. Now this 1116.25-1117.25 area -- should be a key area to stay under -good push higher for another pullback

(Sep 22-15:35) mike: then they get over 1117, they could rally into the close. Aside from that, turn down still in gear

(Sep 22-15:36) mike: I'm about to call it a day with just 30 minutes left in trading
(Sep 22-15:36) mike: have a nice rest of your day, I'll see you here tomorrow in the morning

 

 

Tuesday - September 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 20-09:26) mike: if the ES run up to the1208, and it stalls should be a real good short-97.50 area to hold onto support side

(Sep 20-09:45) mike: 1202 on ES as soon as resistance, shouldn't be exceeded and held

(Sep 20-10:11) mike: the run up to just under 1202 was sold, but the area on NQ is that 2312. If those are exceeded instead of sold the 1204 area is resistance

(Sep 20-10:20) mike: if he ES stops here at 1202 and a sound through 1199.25, then pressure will be on. otherwise a move up to 1204.50 as possible for buyers back off

(Sep 20-10:50) mike: a pullback should stay over 1208 keep a strong

(Sep 20-11:04) mike: stair stepping higher once again, and now as long as the 1208 area is held this and continue. At least there is no reversal unless that area is broken. unless that happens

(Sep 20-11:11) mike: NASDAQ lost some momentum, ES has needs to break down through 1211.50 it is losing its some steam also

(Sep 20-11:22) mike: a top for the morning could it be in, especially NASDAQ with a double top just under 2330. A bounce that stalls just under that is a shorting opportunity for a pullback of some sort up here

(Sep 20-12:13) mike: they have broken down from a double the NASDAQ futures and a 123type top on the ES, if they bounced back to about 1212 on the ES and/or 2328 area on the NQ it should set up a good pullback, or better one that started. We won't get that bounce and let's say and push up through 1210.50 and also 2325 on the NQ first which is small resistance up here

(Sep 20-12:25) mike: we have key support at 1208.50 on ES and 2323 on the NQ. Both are transition areas to the downside if broken.

(Sep 20-12:29) mike: on the top side, a double top at the key 1213.75-1214.50 resistance on the ES and that the same as 2332- 2333 area on the NQ-- both important areas that should be a top and especially if the support areas are broken

(Sep 20-12:39) mike: that should be it for the bounce, shorts for a swing trade on any bounce, 1212 good/important resistance now

(Sep 20-12:41) mike: an attempt to hold at 1208.50 will not stick on a bounce. And if 2322 on the NQ is broken it can pick up some steam

(Sep 20-13:20) mike: they reached 1214 and turned down, need to stay under that you keep the top that are alive. A break and hold under 1211 area roles this over again. Keep and eye on the NQ as it is leading

(Sep 20-13:25) mike: Bulls need to defend this1211 or we had back towards 1208

(Sep 20-13:32) mike: this move is starting to wind up tight with a fourth test up 1214 possible on top, and the stair step up support at the 1211 area. A break of that range needs some gusto to have a clean break out your way, the NASDAQ will likely lead the way if a breakout

(Sep 20-13:40) mike: that should be it

(Sep 20-13:55) mike: dynamics have changed, bounces now are shorts under 1214 area, if they do rally to take out that high then can add up to 1218. I doubt they can take out 1214 but if they do then they need to hold or we get a decent pullback to 1208 or lower

(Sep 20-14:17) mike: they reached the 1208.50 support area after stair stepping lower from 1214 then 1213.25, then 1211.50 and now made higher highs. They should pullback again from that 1213.25-1214.00 area and hold those 1208 area on a drop -market okay as long as 1208 is held

(Sep 20-14:26) mike: got a pullback from the high, or a least another test of that 1213.50 level, and no move under 1211 that is not reversed right away will give a further push down to 1208 area.1212.50 is now going to be sold if there's not going to be another test of the high

(Sep 20-14:35) mike: 2:30 PM bounce to a high, and subsequent sharp drop to the 1208.50 support area... bounces from here on out are shorting opportunities if not short already

(Sep 20-14:37) mike: he bounced back to 1211 area on the ES that stalls out should give a good opportunity to enter if you're not short

(Sep 20-14:46) mike: we have our breakdown under 1208, now the 1208.50-1209.50 area is his resistance, 2318 area on the NASDAQ

(Sep 20-14:50) mike: they key areas for this to trade down to his the 1204.00-1202.50 zone on the ES and the 2304-2302 area on the NQ

(Sep 20-15:04) mike: they rejected the 1208.50 new resistance, keeping the market in a trend downward move torts 1202 as long as that 1208 is not exceeded now

(Sep 20-15:12) mike: the ES reached at 1202. area and has a little turnaround needs to get back to 1206 area to read short of a stall there. Still holding part for overnight for a swing trade.

(Sep 20-15:23) mike: the market is breaking through the first breakdown area and the second one is the 1197 area

(Sep 20-15:23) mike: beware of a bounce from there

(Sep 20-15:23) mike: resistance now at 1204.50-1206.25 area

(Sep 20-15:25) mike: we had a good afternoon yet a lot of folks are gone. Just over 30 minutes to go, so I'm going to call it a day. I will be away at a Dr. appointment in the morning and not sure when I will be home, and if in condition to do updates. If I don't what you know, then Julie will. Have a good rest of the night

 

 

Monday - September 19, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 19-09:29) mike: watch for the 1193.00-1194.004 good resistance early, we should have good volatility bounces should fail

(Sep 19-09:46) mike: if you bought puts last Thursday it's time to get out of at least half of them, look for a reentry or addition of a decent bounce

(Sep 19-09:55) mike: no reversal to the upside unless there is a move over 1188 on the ES that can hold. Even then, the next resistance would would be at 1191.25-1192.00 area. If they get up there and stall it should be a good short

(Sep 19-09:59) mike: Econ data in about one minute

(Sep 19-10:09) mike: should turn here if we don't have a solid low and that 10 AM at the 1182 area

(Sep 19-10:16) mike: a decent pullback from that high at 1186.75. It will take a move over that area that holds to change things just for a short while today it looks like, the market should have one of those big days the way the market looks like

(Sep 19-11:06) mike: the pushover 1187 was quickly reversed

(Sep 19-11:10) mike: and also 1188 was a pre-open high area/resistance area on Globex. It's a short still unless the 1188 is pushed through

(Sep 19-11:29) mike: there are going to have to get turned up from 87.25-87.50 at the lowest here were the bounce will be rolling over

(Sep 19-11:50) mike: all of the pullbacks of 3.25-3.75 points on the ES have been bought-another pullbacks should hold around 1190 to avoid changing from a trend up

(Sep 19-12:11) mike: the ES made a 123 top, that is going to break 1190 and push lower if the market is going to be two-sided today, 10 1194 should be solid resistance for now

(Sep 19-12:23) mike: if 1188 is cut through then 1188.75 or lower is in the cards-other wise resistance at 1191 should be sold if they bounce stalls there

(Sep 19-12:35) mike: the bigger picture trend up was broken a bit viciously this morning, and just say 12 point bounce off of the low for the ES was all they can muster so far. If this cannot turn up in a rush up through the 1191-1192 area and hold above (not reject area like I suspect will happen if this was a soft bearish move files)and then turn back down, then next drop. Take out 1188 and keep going down to the 1181.50 low or lower on the next leg down.

(Sep 19-13:01) mike: under 1187.50-1188.50 the market is under pressure again and can go down in test or break the 1281.50 low alloy lower if it gains some momentum

(Sep 19-13:38) mike: we have a slow and choppy range with just two decent move so for-if they turn down from 1188 area here then I dropped down to 1184.54 lower

(Sep 19-14:15) mike: slow grind higher are being sold just a bit under 60 EMA on for five-minute charts. Then we hit with a small pullback. So they should have a pullback from here, but not go back under 1186.50 to stay out of trouble.

(Sep 19-14:29) mike: to make this into a top, the ES needs to drop down through 1190 and we need the NQ to break down under 2288 area and stay, otherwise they have a chance to push higher. The key resistance to get over and hold it is at 2292 on NASDAQ and 1192.50 on the ES

(Sep 19-14:34) mike: a support was broken and quickly reversed back up. If there is another great of those supports, then that should be a high in place now, so look for a shorting opportunity with a stop with just over 1192.50 on the ES and 2292 on the NASDAQ futures if there one more push lower through those support areas

(Sep 19-14:45) mike: the ES could continue on up to 1196. As long as they itt holds above 1190.00-1189.50 zone, no damage done yet but a reversal from around 1196 and around 2298 on the NQ will turn things over

(Sep 19-14:56) mike: both ES and the NQ miss the resistance by just the tiny bit and turn down. The ES doesn't hold 1191 and in the NQ cannot hold 2288, a high should be in

(Sep 19-15:24) mike: there should be some resistance up here around 1202. A pullback will need to hold around196 area in order to keep this upside intact end of the day. They can't bounce from that area, then it dropped back to 1188 area would be pivotal to end the day

(Sep 19-15:42) mike: less than 30 minutes left, and at 1202 level was reached but not reject yet, 1204. It would be the last important level in the day. This will stay in a good of trend as long as the ES can stay over 1200, or 1296.50 at the worst otherwise this is topping out

(Sep 19-15:43) mike: have a good rest of your day

 

 

 

Thursday - September 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Sep 15, 2011 9:29 mike: 1191 this first support and 1182.50. Is key for today. They need to hold lower 1197 50-1198.50 after the first hour to not have a reversal

Sep 15, 2011 9:36 mike: be sure it's something on a bounce is not short already

Sep 15, 2011 9:38 mike: a hold over 1296.50 needed to avoid a good size pullback-if that would be exceeded that of the 1200 area will be pivotal

Sep 15, 2011 9:47 mike: 94could be a turning point back down otherwise need to stay over 1190

Sep 15, 2011 9:56 mike: previous turning point was from 93.50, just under 94 turning point, and a 4.50 drop-down followed. Second bounce failed at 1192.75, and now 1189 is needed too hold and bounce off of in order to avoid trouble

Sep 15, 2011 10:08 mike: a third try at 1197.50-1198.50key area short-term, the ES doesn't get into trouble and less it breaks under 1194 at worst on a pullback

Sep 15, 2011 10:24 mike: the high made right at the big resistance and they drop to test the first low has been broken, so this space and tends down under 1195 with a target down around 1188 and then 1182.50 in some major area this morning if 1188 not held

Sep 15, 2011 10:48 mike: a high at a major resistance 36 minutes into trading, and now a low at 86.75 was made 68 minutes into trading so far. A move back over 1191.50-1198.00 needed to take some pressure off and move higher otherwise a failure would set up a test of the low

Sep 15, 2011 11:01 mike: the fact that the bounce could not get over 1190 on the ES is telling that the market is in a weak position and a trip down to 1181 will need to be quickly reversed or the downside can pick up some steam

Sep 15, 2011 11:25 mike: a short under 1192 down to 1188

Sep 15, 2011 11:35 mike: got hit with a power outage. I need to be away for a bit.I don't have much time on this phone card to finish today and over tomorrow without the power coming back on

Sep 15, 2011 12:17 mike: I might have connection now I hope for a while... the ES is pushing back towards top of its range and the same with the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ has been a bit weaker but as long as 1192.25-1191.50 has held then the move can continue to hire, but if that breaks and not turned up from 1191.50, then will see go for the downside instead

Sep 15, 2011 12:28 mike: if they fail to push through 1195.50-1196.00 with some gusto soon then it's trouble, a pretty good sized sell off could occur. That resistance is important up here on both the ES

Sep 15, 2011 12:35 mike: they can push through this on the NQ, and have to ES follow, but they need to stay over 1193-have the worse- still on the ES to stay in bullish mode

Sep 15, 2011 13:04 mike: back up for yet another test of the 97.50-98.50 area, needs to push through and hold on this go I think, -or a top will be forming. 1195 is now key support on pullback

Sep 15, 2011 13:19 mike: another failure so far at the 98.50 area, a move under 96.50 should start putting some pressure on the downside

Sep 15, 2011 13:32 mike: we have a drop-off of a test of the key resistance, there is a bounce back up to test 97.50 or just below and look for more selling from that area in this is top hat resistance

Sep 15, 2011 13:47 mike: watch 97.00-97.50 so and here for another turn down if the market is going to stay top-heavy

Sep 15, 2011 14:15 mike: he 1198.00-1197.50. I is now good support on a pullback, and needs to hold to keep the markets strong. Resistance at 1202 area just miss but that support is more important short-term for direction

Sep 15, 2011 14:23 mike: this is make or break area, 97.50 if broken should mean a highest in place, and any bounce back to test that high will be so beware of potential change of trend from up here

Sep 15, 2011 14:30 mike: I'd like to see a little bit more pullback, to set up a one last run to test the high, or just a bit lower. If that were to occur, we do get a decent rally up to trade and then possibly catch a high before a bigger drop occurs

Sep 15, 2011 14:46 mike: there is no fear so far like I felt there would be up at this area, so need some proof still a number of the prior support at 1197, that will need to be broken to change this trend and scare out some long from up here

Sep 15, 2011 15:02 mike: similar patterns the last three days. This might hold up in the last hour by the others this week have not. Wouldn't buy up here, but maybe a pullback that gets a foothold to bounce from around 1198-1197 old resistance-now it is some support

Sep 15, 2011 15:27 mike: should be pressure late as long as 1200.59 exceeded

Sep 15, 2011 15:36 mike: it looks like a 3:30 PM pullback low today, and that should be it for the selling. 1202 area still strong resistance and a day

Sep 15, 2011 15:36 mike: have a good rest of that day, I'll see you here in the morning

 

 

Wednesday - September 14, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 14-09:24) mike: 69 area support up here, needs to hold that area or back towards 65. Before another bounce attempt

(Sep 14-09:37) mike: early highs are in place

(Sep 14-09:42) mike: they should come back down to 1165 area as long as 71 now exceeded/without being quickly rumors

(Sep 14-09:44) mike: without being quickly "reversed"that was a typo

(Sep 14-09:52) mike: that should be about it for a bounce back unless 72 area exceeded

(Sep 14-09:55) mike: looking for a test of 66 to be very key to hold and bounce strongly from. I'd kind of doubt that happens, my bias is still bearish

(Sep 14-09:59) mike: the ES needs to get over 1172-1173

(Sep 14-10:08) mike: target at65 reached but that should be taken out to the downside as long as no hold over 1169 now

(Sep 14-10:12) mike: stay with the short side on bounces that fail under 1169 at the low area and 1172 area on the top side, that will be key. I need to be away for about 15 minutes, my apologies

(Sep 14-10:26) mike: 62.50-64 .00 area is as a weak bounce should go

(Sep 14-10:41) mike: need to get my voice my voice software working better, market stays in some trouble in less 69 area is cleared. Hope to be back in 10 men or so

(Sep 14-11:04) mike: 65 held for about 30 minutes, just pushed through. 61.25 is a good support below, it needs to hold where the break of a wedge that occur and there isn't much more upside before turning back down

(Sep 14-11:19) mike: 65 was a transition on the upside, unless that breaks this trend will stay up. If it is broken, then back to a market that is rolling over with 1161.25 as a big support to hold on a breakdown

(Sep 14-11:31) mike: a much better bounce than expected, but should fail here under 72, 69 as a support now that needs to hold to avoid an potential change in trend

(Sep 14-12:04) mike: as long as 71 has held this will continue towards 1174.50-1175.50 or higher. Just beware of a pullback when the upsidestones fizzles

(Sep 14-12:30) mike: the market is trying to hold together up here, but if this next pop up reverse is down from 1173 then we could turn this back down. No rollover and less a break under 1169 that does not quickly reverse back up again.

(Sep 14-12:35) mike: 73.00 reached so far - will need a break under 1171 .25 to break this tiny uptrend off of 1169.25

(Sep 14-13:06) mike: 72.50 should be key support now on a pullback, a transition area that needs to be held. It would take a break back under that level that is then turned into resistance on a bounce to get this turned back down. Unless the curse of buyers are still in control on pullbacks over 72.50

(Sep 14-13:39) mike: this could be still headed to 1184 area, carefull on the short side until the trends change. A pullback now should stay over 76.75-76.25 at the lowest

(Sep 14-13:55) mike: if 1179 level breaks, a bounce that follows should be sold as a high would have better odds oft being in place

(Sep 14-14:22) mike: the last pullback held 80.50 and the ES pushed on through The 1184 area pretty easily, and that 1184-1183 has now support it needs to hold to keep this upside going

(Sep 14-14:47) mike: all of the pullbacks have been bought, but a double top from under 1186 could be in, it takes a break under 1182 to change the trends to down put a shot on the short side with a tight stop up here could be played for a drop down through 1182 or lower

(Sep 14-15:02) mike: there is resistance at 87.50-88.50 area, but unless 1186 has broken it still trend up and trading from alongside still better on its

(Sep 14-15:08) mike: 89.50 was my last of the listed resistance last night. If 87.25 holds it could get pushed through here

(Sep 14-15:11) mike: I won't be surprised to see a last hour pullback occur, maybe in the last 15 minutes or so, if this is able to hold 1188 at the farthest on a pullback. A grind up to 92-93 could be reversed, if not their then up at 1197-1198 at the maximum on the upside

(Sep 14-15:23) mike: a pullback base to hold around 1189.52 keep from rolling over late day, or at least as other pullback

(Sep 14-15:29) mike: this could go for 1197 1198 after all. I'm not sure what turned so good over the last couple of days to make this market look like a powerhouse, but it sure looks good and strong today. I would be tempted to nab a few put for a potential fast countertrend drop but this doesn't seem like the setup for that

(Sep 14-15:31) mike: 1190.50 area is thei support to hold in the day. Have a good rest of the day.

 

 

 

Friday - September 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 02-09:36) mike: should be under pressure and less 1185 area is clear handheld. I will be back a little bit after 10 AM

(Sep 02-10:21) mike: the rally up to1185 was rejected, and that looks like it's still key to clear and then hold on a pullback

(Sep 02-10:35) mike: they have to bounce from this 1177  and  hold over  for it to avoid 75-74 or lower

(Sep 02-10:38) mike: pressures is on unless they get over 1180 area and hold. Even if that happens 1185 is still key

(Sep 02-10:45) mike: the ES turned out from the 79.50level, need you over our pressure still on

(Sep 02-11:03) mike: they got over 1179.50 and needs to hold that is to keep this going

(Sep 02-11:28) mike: after the last update the ES reversed up from just under 1179.50 and continued up so far to test 1185. As long as a fullback holds 1182 area this can't continue this can continue

(Sep 02-11:41) mike: 1182 area now is a pivotal area, it must hold for the trends change to down in the next bounce would be sold into. A push over 1185 will need to hold that not quickly reverse to stay over 1182

(Sep 02-12:02) mike: I need to be away for about an hour it looks, my apologies. If something changes and I can update, I will but otherwise I will be away for a bit

(Sep 02-12:32) mike: slow and choppy action and still unable to clear 1185 and hold. Favor selling against 1185 for a better pullback

(Sep 02-13:44) mike: trended down the day in the works, stay with shorts under the 79.50-80.00 area as that shouldn't be exceeded and held

(Sep 02-14:00) mike: we have a potential double bottom at 1176.00-1175.50 and if that's broken then we should go right to 1170.50 area, last listed support

(Sep 02-14:08) mike: 1179.75-1178.75 prior support is now key resistance on the upside, would need to be exceeded and held to put a dent in the downside

(Sep 02-14:22) mike: 1170.25-1169.50 area is a major support today, it's been trending down and in that is not held in the market will close on a poor note most likely. If they do go back and make a slightly lower low at that area and then turn up, it might give a bounce, but not hold

(Sep 02-14:24) mike: it has been a long week for me doing this from a hospital bed, but hopefully did a good job of keeping you on the right side of the market. I'm going to call it a day. Have a great long weekend, and I'll see you here next week.

 

 

Thursday - September 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

[Sep 1, 2011 9:47] mike ISM Index in 15 minutes, ES is underwater unless it gets over 1220 and holds

[Sep 1, 2011 9:49] mike I have a doctor visit somewhere around 10, but could be anywhere between now and 1030. I'll update after that's over

[Sep 1, 2011 10:19] mike a rally high just under a big resistance, 1218 area needs to hold or low move is likely over. Resistance at 1224.50-1225.00 area should be sold if market week

[Sep 1, 2011 10:35] mike failure just under 1224 area, that needs to be cleared and held him and him/market has topped for a while otherwise, a bounce here to run up and take out .1224 area needed, or back down to 1211 area, more likely 1208

[Sep 1, 2011 10:38] mike watch 1222.50 for a turn back to the downside.

[Sep 1, 2011 10:55] mike market will avoid trouble as long as 1216 holds. If that is broken, then bounces after should set up a short sale. 1224-1225 area is still resistance to push through, or a breakdown likely

[Sep 1, 2011 10:55] mike back in about 10 to 15 minutes

[Sep 1, 2011 11:33] mike if another two-sided day in the works, then this 1220 area should be hard to get over and hold, should pull back here a bit if so

[Sep 1, 2011 11:41] mike they turned it down from 19.75, need a breakthrough 17.50 on downside to get a push towards 1216 for lower

[Sep 1, 2011 11:44] mike we got the rollover from just under 1220, and dropped to 1215.75 low so far, they should go lower the way this is acting

[Sep 1, 2011 11:52] mike a bit like yesterday, the action is slowing down but has shown good resistance just a bit under the 1230 level on the max upside, and now the 1220 acting as good resistance. can see a drop down to1212 area,

[Sep 1, 2011 11:52] mike and if not held if that's not held then let 1208

[Sep 1, 2011 12:06] mike 1220 was sold again, but no breaking down yet, it's a scalp on both sides unless a break and hold under the 1213-1211 so on the bottom, or I'll move over 1220 and hold... Back in about 15 minutes

[Sep 1, 2011 12:28] mike my apologies for being away so much this morning. I need to be away for another 30 minutes or so,

[Sep 1, 2011 13:38] mike I'm back, sorry for the interaction him him him him him him him him him him. Him him him him him him him as long as they stay under 1215.50 then the ES still has more to do on the downside, even though the 1211 area met here

[Sep 1, 2011 13:44] mike but 1212. Now resistance on a bounce. They need to bounce here from the 1207.50 area or a down to 1204-1202.

[Sep 1, 2011 14:00] mike 1210 looks like it is turning into an important area to get over and then hold on a pullback. The trend is still down towards the 1204 area and maybe we can see a different just under 1200. However, if they push over a 1210 area and then hold, it could set up another short squeeze rally late in the day.

[Sep 1, 2011 14:10] mike the 1204 area is being tested, and if they don't get over 1207-1208 then the market still in a trimmed it down to move. 01210 area is still looking like he resistance to break the trend now

[Sep 1, 2011 14:30] mike an attempt to double bottom at 1204, that better hold or we will likely see a dip under 1200 for a reversal attempt. Otherwise, still need to get over 1208, better yet a 1210 area, and then hold to get out of trouble here, and maybe it yet another lake day rally

[Sep 1, 2011 14:45] mike a turned down from 12 10, 1208-1207 should not be broken if there is going to be a decent bounce,, otherwise they moved back down to 1204 or lower

[Sep 1, 2011 15:05] mike back down to 1204, and 1200 likely it appears. Hold off on any lungs unless/until there is house with her gusto, then a pullback. Avoid long as otherwise and look to sell if they bounce stalls out

[Sep 1, 2011 15:13] mike a double bottom at 1204.00-1203.75. That will be key in the day to hold, or a test of 1200 is possible. Resistance at 1207 now needs clear and held to avoid going down there

[Sep 1, 2011 15:15] mike I need to be calling it a day. Employment number tomorrow, we've had another good opportunity day, will avoid a late day move as it could be a fake. Have a good rest of your day
 

 

Wednesday August 31, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 31-09:25) mike: Mike will not be able to do any updates here until after his doctor comes this morning

(Aug 31-10:23) mike: to avoid changing trend the1124.00 level needs to hold or quickly reverse of tested. 1232. Next resistance. 1218 area major area this morning, that shouldn't be seen or else the market will have a reversal in place

(Aug 31-10:49) mike: the upside lost momentum, and must reverse back up from 1224.50-1224.00, otherwise 1222 is next

(Aug 31-11:01) mike: the 1222 area is still key here, otherwise we should see a test of the 1218 area, that is a key area today. This downtrend stays intact unless 1225 150. It succeeded/held on a pullback

(Aug 31-11:29) mike: but 1218 area tested, but now about 1222.00-1222.50 area needs push through and then held or the scandal over still, the 1214 area would be next

(Aug 31-11:54) mike: the bounce to 22.25 was sold, if 1218 is broken then the market will be under pressure, as the NASDAQ is currently

(Aug 31-11:56) mike: 1214-1212 zone is key now,

(Aug 31-12:37) mike: they made a low at noon, and didn't say under 1218 for very long at all. It looks like some resistance still at 1224 area. A pullback to around 1220 will do the market is going to stay in the same shape up here

(Aug 31-12:39) mike: I will be back in about 30 or 40 minutes. I don't think that the ES is going to be able to get over 1230 and hold today. But if I'm wrong on that, then we could see 1238 on this leg up before a good size

(Aug 31-12:40) mike: pullback/drop occurs. So careful buying up there in that area if they get their and the move stalls out for rolls over

(Aug 31-13:31) mike: 1220.50-1220.00 area is key trend support now. The 60. EMA on five-minute chart has been holding, he buried under that should start a decent pullback

(Aug 31-13:40) mike: a decent bounce off of 20.50, nothing bad happens as long as that is held. 1224.00-1224.50 area is next resistance on bounce

(Aug 31-13:44) mike: at this point, I think that bounces are going to fail and set up better opportunities on the short side-especially if a 20.00 broken here

(Aug 31-13:51) mike: if there is a bounce here, and it fails under 1223 on the ES, and 2249 on nq it sets up a good short, a top is in for while it appears

(Aug 31-14:05) mike: they need to get back over 1218.50 area and hold on a pullback in order to get a decent bounce attempt going, but the way the market is acting it would only set up a good shorting opportunity. I would keep my finger off of the buy button for now I just look for shorting opportunities given a decent bounce that fails.

(Aug 31-14:08) mike: keep an eye on the NASDAQ also, it started getting week before the ES has led the way pretty much since then. It should have some resistance at 2239-2241 area first. That shouldn't be exceeded and held for very long of going to continue this downtrend, but if cleared along with that 1218.50 area on the ES, then a better bounce possible before selling comes in but below that 1224.

(Aug 31-14:17) mike: if the ES drops down to 1213-1211 zone in the next 15 minutes or so, and then begins to turn up, then a scalp trade on the long side can set up. I pass otherwise

(Aug 31-14:32) mike: 18.50 on the ES was rejected and now should see the 12th 15 area break, also the NQ state under its resistance. Both are key resistance late day

(Aug 31-14:41) mike: 1213-1211 is a major area down here. If that breaks, then the market begins to prove it is ready for a bigger drop. To avoid that breaks down, needs to rally soon as we are almost out of the reversal timeframe

(Aug 31-14:43) mike: if that keys on breaks, then 1208 and the cards. 1218.50 is key resistance on a bounce if there is a late rebound, but the short side better odds on bounces

(Aug 31-14:57) mike: the ES dropped 16 points since the 1 PM bounce high and broke through some key support on the way. A good bounce back up to the 1214-1215 area, but that should be it if the market is going to continue the trend down action since 1 PM. If it goes any further than that, then 1218.00-1218.50 is key to get back over and then hold above that on a pullback

(Aug 31-15:09) mike: this is the best bounce since the one that began around 12-noon,stalling a bit, 1214 needs to hold him to keep out of trouble. A close under the 1212 level will be a bearish sign for the market going into the next few days, even though it's end of month and the going into a holiday

(Aug 31-15:14) mike: last interruption here I need to be away the last 45 minutes here. That run up stopped at the 60. EMA on the five-minute chart, that was good support on the way up and now turning into resistance on the way down since the trend has changed. Use that as dynamic resistance the rest of the day if there is another decent run up and it stalls out near their. Have a good rest of your day

 

 

Tuesday August 30, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 30-10:09) mike: watch 1199 for a resistance, should be important

(Aug 30-10:18) mike: 1199-1200 has been resistance on this bounce. From what ever is bounce high turns down from, I'm looking for an 8.50 point drop to the

(Aug 30-10:24) mike: swing low. That would be 1191.25. now unless the 1200 area is exceeded and held /that 1200 global looks to be the key level to get over and stayed over to stay out of trouble and tried to get something going on the upside. I'll be back in a little while

(Aug 30-10:49) mike: they should bounce from 97-96 to avoid trouble

(Aug 30-10:52) mike: even then, if they push up to around 1201.50-1202.50 area should be sold if the market is going to be weak

(Aug 30-11:12) mike: 1201.50 was sold at a drop to 1199.00 turn right back up. that second bounce cleared 1202.50so the market is not as weak as it may look.if that's the case, then 1207. It's possible on this move

(Aug 30-11:16) mike: the 1202.50-1201.50. Kind of a pivotal area that needs to hold on this pullback. If that's broken and not quickly reverse, then the dynamics could be changing a move back towards 1198 area would be next

(Aug 30-11:17) mike: I need to take a break for a bit, back in about 30 minutes or so if time permits

(Aug 30-11:46) mike: should be a dip from up here, key support for the next hour or so is that 1206.25-1205.50. If that is not bought up, then things change, and bounces will then likely be sold. But the market stays bullish until that support area is broken/and thenholes on a bounce attempt

(Aug 30-12:31) mike: add the pullback from 1213.25, and now must turn right from 1206 925-1205.50 area or things will be changing

(Aug 30-12:38) mike: F. 1206.50 isn't held, then expect a bounce to fail under the 1308.50-1309.50 area, as that will be the overhead to get through and hold to avoid more downside/topping out for this move

(Aug 30-12:44) mike: things are breaking down, cluster of resistance just above 1209 . A balance of to 1206.75-1207.50 that solves/reverses would set up a good short with a stop around 1209

(Aug 30-12:54) mike: this 1203 00-1202.50 area is important, was open area and then bounced high around 10:35 AM and then held on a pullback

(Aug 30-12:56) mike: pressure should be on under the 1205 area now, and then the 1208.00-1208.50 zone of that 1205 is not sold.

(Aug 30-12:58) mike: I will be back in 30 minutes or so hopefully, stay with selling bounces as it looks like we may have a higher place

(Aug 30-13:49) mike: the last ounce turned down from just under 1208.00-1208.50 area, and gave a decent drop. That is still a key area it appears. But for now, as long as 1201-1199 area it's held a market will avoid trouble today and say in a two sided mode.

(Aug 30-14:06) mike: a good reversal at the 1208.00-1208.50 area, right down to 1203 so far. They should bounce off of 1201-1199 area or far else they can see a push down towards 1196 or lower. 1193 low area this morning is now key support the rest of the day to avoid a bigger reversal

(Aug 30-14:19) mike: a pullback towards 1207.50-1206.75 should hold and give it another bounce if the market is going to stay strong. If that's broken, then 1203 area is the key support below

(Aug 30-14:31) mike: a pullback held just over the 1207.50, and testing.1213 hi area. As long as that 1208 area holds on the market will avoid a reversal and can continue higher. If that area is not offended, then back down towards the 1203 area. The market has held on the dips, so unless there is a sharp break lower the market will stay in bullish mode.

(Aug 30-14:33) mike: I need to be away for a half an hour or more. I will be back for one more update before the close

(Aug 30-15:10) mike: the resistance was rejected for a third time, as long as 1208 holds no damage done this afternoon. Only a close back under 1208 is negative. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Thursday August 18, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Aug 18, 2011 9:20:27 AM EST
mike: 58 big tgt met already. should be a rough day for buyers, 52 area next. sell the bounces , 65 resist, then 72.50. Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed release, and Leading Indicators at 10am.

Aug 18, 2011 9:38:16 AM EST
mike: 53.50-51.50 a supp area. , still sellers o n bounce

Aug 18, 2011 9:51:51 AM EST
mike: 1150 a key supp, low pre econ data release

Aug 18, 2011 9:52:37 AM EST
mike: 58 area pivotal resist

Aug 18, 2011 10:02:10 AM EST
mike: 50 area good resist now, a short

Aug 18, 2011 10:02:51 AM EST
mike: bigger pic break dn, sell any good bounce

Aug 18, 2011 10:03:00 AM EST
mike: back in 15 min

Aug 18, 2011 10:35:03 AM EST
mike: they bounced up to1145 unless momentum then the push up to 1144, a bit of a wedge pattern, market still horrible under 1144-1145

Aug 18, 2011 10:40:48 AM EST
mike: 37.75-37 .25 area is support before a test of the low. It will take a move over 1144-1145 area to hold to take some pressure off and avoid potential test of low from that

Aug 18, 2011 10:53:53 AM EST
mike: this should be key here. So far the market has avoided a second breakdown so far, it could happen after a lunchtime rally and into the afternoon if a pushover 1144-1145 and don't turn right back down. A pullback should stay over 1136.50 last low to avoid another breakdown

Aug 18, 2011 11:15:32 AM EST
mike: the moved up to1144.50, but the move stalled, a good spot for a short period this pullback to 1138.50 needs to hold, or bounce right back after a break, as it looks like that might be key on the downside as it is the 45 level on the upside

Aug 18, 2011 11:32:48 AM EST
mike: third getting short squeeze, I pullback to 41.50 area should hold if it happens soon. 48 area next resistance

Aug 18, 2011 11:43:08 AM EST
mike: if 43.50 is not defended now, then this move up will begin to get top-heavy,

Aug 18, 2011 11:46:49 AM EST
mike: 48 should be seen, if no turn from there than up to the 1150-51 area that should be the key resistance above us

Aug 18, 2011 11:54:39 AM EST
mike: 1148 was reached and rejected, 1145 area meets to hold to keep pushing higher, if broken though then another downdraft coming, possibly after a bounce to a lower high fails

Aug 18, 2011 12:03:49 AM EST
mike: some support at 42.50.

Aug 18, 2011 12:06:02 AM EST
mike: 42.50 held so far. a drop-down under 1140 would be pretty bearish, if that happens without a quick bounce, follow-through selling to 1137 area is a key spot below

Aug 18, 2011 12:28:48 AM EST
mike: 48 to 42 a pretty good range. Were making another channel/wedge pattern on the upside, but not in danger unless 1142 has broken. They should hold around 1144 if they are going to bounce again

Aug 18, 2011 12:30:04 AM EST
mike: I will be kind of in and out for the next hour. My apologies. A slow trade after a big open, watch the channel for a break in for support/resistance until then

Aug 18, 2011 12:59:41 AM EST
mike: 1142 had a pretty good bid, that needs to hold now, a trade up to 44-45 should fail on a bounce here if weak

Aug 18, 2011 13:06:34 PM EST
mike: looks short next bounce under 44, or around that area if they pop up, market looking tired

Aug 18, 2011 13:07:27 PM EST
mike: it's outside of the channel also, so should try for lower levels and may be a test of 1133-1131 zone which is a key zone today especially on the close. Have to stay just over 1128

Aug 18, 2011 13:17:48 PM EST
mike: 40.50 is a little now, as long as we stay under that, a test of the low or at least 1133 area likely

Aug 18, 2011 13:21:24 PM EST
mike: the bounce to 40.50-41.50 should be sold at the market is still weak. That's just below where the buyers came in shortly before 1 PM, should be a minor resistance at the least

Aug 18, 2011 13:34:55 PM EST
mike: 40.50 was sold.......it hasn't been a very perky market,, this should test the lows the way it looks

Aug 18, 2011 13:39:44 PM EST
mike: 37.00-37.50 resistance on a bounce. 1133-1131 is major support today, if they push under that area and can't turn right back up, then the market has problems. We would see 1128 at the least before they try to turn around. That's just below here, so beware

Aug 18, 2011 13:48:29 PM EST
mike: the bounce off of 33.50 saved the day so far. It looks like 1138 needs to be exceeded/held on a pullback now to get out of trouble down here, and avoid another test of the 33-31 major area

Aug 18, 2011 13:52:33 PM EST
mike: 36.75 to support now on a pullback. If that holds we can have a double bottom in place and maybe start a decent bounce. Resistance is still at 40.50-41.50, that should be key

Aug 18, 2011 14:04:59 PM EST
mike: it looks like they bottom out. A little double bottom in a bigger double bottom. A pullback to 38 area should be run right back up the market is now in good shape from down here look for that pullback to be a buyer on a stall, or closer to the 33-31 area if possible

Aug 18, 2011 14:11:23 PM EST
mike: 38.25 held, that's key now, need to stay over that and push higher

Aug 18, 2011 14:13:53 PM EST
mike: those who are long are so eager to hold on when the upside run stalls out. It still looks like holding around the 38 area is necessary to avoid another test of the 33-31 area. 40.50 looks like good resistance

Aug 18, 2011 14:22:09 PM EST
mike: for now it's a trading range between 1143 and 1137, with 1140 as a support midpoint that should hold you going to move higher

Aug 18, 2011 14:32:21 PM EST
mike: a pop up to test that 1143.75 bounce high will be a shortage opportunity, if they can get back up there and then stall or show some rejection. 38.50 area needs to hold, and then a push over 40 needs to stay...

Aug 18, 2011 14:37:18 PM EST
mike: should get another poll back here, or shorts get squeezed for several more points before reversing

Aug 18, 2011 14:44:23 PM EST
mike: at least until the last hour, expect the bounce is to fail under 1143.75, he moved back up towards 4150 area should be the max bounce this gets a staying week

Aug 18, 2011 14:49:26 PM EST
mike: they need to bounce here soon, otherwise back down towards 1133-1131 major area

Aug 18, 2011 14:53:47 PM EST
mike: 38.50 is now key resistance, if unable to get over that and hold, market is vulnerable. A third test of the 1133 area would be "must hold" to avoid further damage in a move down towards 1128 or lower

Aug 18, 2011 15:00:45 PM EST
mike: they should go fo1131.00, it looks like market still in trouble in less than 38 area gets cleared/held on a dip, head to look like that's going to happen

Aug 18, 2011 15:14:33 PM EST
mike: it's still an ugly market. If they can't get back over 1135 and stick over that level, thanks just aren't right and more downside in the cards

Aug 18, 2011 15:24:45 PM EST
mike: the market stays under pressure as long as the ES stays under 1134-1135 area

Aug 18, 2011 15:25:23 PM EST
mike: I'm going to call it a day here, 1128 was just miss so far but could be seen yet on this leg down, maybe lower

Aug 18, 2011 15:25:37 PM EST
mike: have a great rest of the day

 

** I'm sorry, but I didn't get the log uploaded for the past 2 days due to computer problems **

 

Monday August 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 15-09:20) mike: per last night update 1186.00-1186.75 key early / 80-79 supp, pivotal below

(Aug 15-09:25) mike: housing mkt number at 10am.

(Aug 15-09:33) mike: 86.50 needs held, 1190.50-1192.00 resist

(Aug 15-09:36) mike: 90.75 sold. 88 area need held , but a top in for a pullback

(Aug 15-09:42) mike: 88.75-88.25 zone is supp tht should/ must hold on a dip.

(Aug 15-09:44) mike: 93 needs exceeded / held soon ,

(Aug 15-09:49) mike: 93 high was sold dn to 1190. that 1190 is the key, need held over to get test of or higher high

(Aug 15-09:55) mike: got test of high, it was sold. econ data in 4 minutes,

(Aug 15-10:03) mike: little dbl top possible. 89.50 needs bought on a dip . if dbl top exceeded, 1197.75-1198.50 next resist

(Aug 15-10:04) mike: feeble off 89.50, back in 15 min

(Aug 15-10:23) mike: the ES needs to hold over 94 area, or turn right up if broken, if we're going to see the 1200 area today

(Aug 15-10:26) mike: we have a trend up move going, a pullback from this resistance needs to hold at 1194 to avoid a failure

(Aug 15-10:38) mike: I think the trend up move may be just about over. They held at 1194.25, if that level is broken then a bounce that follows should be sold. Another rejection of 97 could set that in gear. Should be good, or at least pivotal support at 1190. If they have a decent pullback

(Aug 15-10:46) mike: staying under other 94. It is negative, it will take a move over 1194 that holds to get this turned backup

(Aug 15-11:01) mike: pull back to the 1190 till area when the popover 94 was quickly reversed. It still bearish staying under 94-95 area, down to the 87.00-86.50 zone

(Aug 15-11:03) mike: weaker NQ may be able to pull the market lower. 2200 resistance there and 1193.50 on the ES

(Aug 15-11:11) mike: 86.50-86.50 area could be in the cards here in the next 15-30 minutes as long the NQ stays weak, or we get a reversal back up if the 93.25 area is pushed through on a bounce and sticks

(Aug 15-11:23) mike: they dropped down to 86.75 so far, need a move over 90.50-91.00 area where this is in some trouble, don't expect a bounce pop-up to stick

(Aug 15-11:27) mike: if they hold under 1186, then odds are we are headed back towards 1180-1178 area. To avoid that, and didn't this downtrend, first 1189 needs exceeded, then on up through the 1190.50-1191.00 area which looks like it's key here now

(Aug 15-11:40) mike: 88 reached, 86 now needs to hold to try for 1190

(Aug 15-11:55) mike: lunchtime rally started, 88 was held at 1190 reached on this bounce. it's kind of stalling here. A reversal back down through 1188 would start a drop to test or break the low

(Aug 15-12:02) mike: it's a two-sided day with an upside bias, so far -1191 could give the pullback, if not up towards 94 or so. In any case,. If 1188 breaks,then 86 should be kind of key, a stall could give a higher low and set up a bullish pattern

(Aug 15-12:13) mike: 1188 reached and held so far. I'll bounce needs to push through 1192, which looks doubtful. A move up there should be sold if it has no strength to push right through 1192 and not stall out

(Aug 15-12:24) mike: computer problems have to reboot....be right back

(Aug 15-12:46) mike: okay, all straightened out and only missed a 3 point move, which was happening in a few seconds (minutes at most) last week. It looks like a pullback to 1191 needs to hold and to turn right back up if tested./The 94.50-95.56 resistance

(Aug 15-12:54) mike: turn dried-up from just above 91 level and it looks like 93 is a trend up support that needs to hold on to the next pullback.

(Aug 15-13:03) mike: that might be close to a test of high as going to get. 93.50-93.00 is a transition area on the upside, now is key support on a pullback.

(Aug 15-13:12) mike: it should be it for a bounce, 93. Now resistance on a pop-up, 88 level that held earlier is a key area to hold now to stay away from going back to test the lows

(Aug 15-13:31) mike: not much excitement or quality trade setups today. Couple good turns from a support or resistance, but the market is just meandering around acting top heavy. I dropped down to 89 area as possible if that 91.50 not defended

(Aug 15-13:42) mike: if the market is going to keep trying to chop higher,and not make a topping pattern, then the ES needs to get back over 95 and not rehearse, those bounces that stall are shorting opportunities but just for a scalp trade on the other side of the coin if they drop back to the 91.50-90.50 area, they will need to bounce right back. If that doesn't happen, then thanks change and we can go back towards 88 again

(Aug 15-13:52) mike: time to start looking for a potential swing trade, the bounces have been failing, the action is changing a bit, indicator should be close to overbought across the board. A chance to see 1200 still, but that should At off if we do happen to get that far. The only way this breaks this afternoon is if the 1190 area is broken, not quickly reversed, or there is a failure/reversal from slightly higher prices

(Aug 15-14:03) mike: staying over 94 can get this have a squeeze up towards the 1200 area, just needs a good push through 1197

(Aug 15-14:05) mike: a quick drop towards 95.00-94.50 should hold if the upside is going to continue here

(Aug 15-14:13) mike: they tried once to pop up from 94.75, need to do so here or a double top could be in place. If they can hold that then the ES has a chance still to try for 1200, but doubt that area would stick on the first attempt

(Aug 15-14:30) mike: should see 1200 tested it can hold over 97, that area looks key now

(Aug 15-14:38) mike: if they happen to test the high now, it should be with less momentum, and we did see rejection up there.. Were going to make a high around that area, or slightly above is still not impossible, but time tostart looking for their run ups to stall out to set up a short

(Aug 15-14:43) mike: so far buyers refusing to give it up, 97 area should be key year, same with the 94.50 area on the bottom side on a drop

(Aug 15-14:52) mike: if they're going to make 1200 or just above, then it will have to be on this move, or at worst hold up here above 1197 were so going into the close. From here the upside getting limited, a selloff should start from up there if reached and reversed, if not today than tomorrow morning

(Aug 15-14:58) mike: NQ has tried to take leadership on upside, and can, 2199-2198. Needs to hold their heads for support. ES needs to stay over 96 to attempt a push higher here

(Aug 15-15:02) mike: one hour to go, market at its highs, would expect either a late day pullback if they don't hurry up and push over the 98.50 level pretty soon

(Aug 15-15:07) mike: should get to 1200 here, the zone is 1200.50-1202.00 on the ES

(Aug 15-15:11) mike: need to stay over 96.25 or this could be over with

(Aug 15-15:18) mike: a selloff should come from that 1200 area, I would like to see it reach today or tomorrow in the early going would be better.. To change that trend there needs to be a pullback of 4 points on the ES, that would be better confirmation that a short-term hike could be either in place or forming.

(Aug 15-15:27) mike: 1200 was touched and rejected instantly. I'm scaling in to the short position, small to begin with 97-99 area on the first part

(Aug 15-15:29) mike: 96.00 is a four-point pullback, a late drop down towards1192-1190 area in 96 is broken and not quickly reversed

(Aug 15-15:40) mike: a drop from the 1200 resistance held the 1196, which was so far just another pullback in an uptrend, though the uptrend may not have far to go. That range is likely key in the late going, a breakout over 1200 that takes him up to 1202, or a break under 1196 takes him down to 1194.50-1194.00 area. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Friday August 12, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Aug 12, 2011 10:06:36 AM EST
mike: bounce off yest close. , if broken 1 more drop to 65-64 area, but good resist to clear/ hold over 78.50 area.

Aug 12, 2011 10:06:48 AM EST
mike: back in 20 min

Aug 12, 2011 10:52:53 AM EST
mike: bounces are not sticking watch the 76 area for a transition/resistance on a bounce. A drop down to 1167 needs to be quickly reversed, it is bigger trend support, 60 EMA on five-minute chart

Aug 12, 2011 10:55:39 AM EST
mike: 75.50-76.25 area is the bounce resistance./

Aug 12, 2011 11:03:28 AM EST
mike: 76.25was sold, need a break of 73 area to go lower,

Aug 12, 2011 11:04:47 AM EST
mike: 72.50, and that must hold. Keep an eye on the NQ, it might be losing its luster

Aug 12, 2011 11:10:32 AM EST
mike: around 76. Is key, will need to push about that and hold it on a pullback, otherwise we need to see buying come in again on a test of the 71 area. That's just above the key trends support, help twice so far

Aug 12, 2011 11:24:34 AM EST
mike: they just can't hold gains, better opportunities on the short side when the upside momentum dies out. A bounce back towards 77 should be sold

Aug 12, 2011 11:25:34 AM EST
mike: building a wedge type pattern also, 73. Needs to hold court could break towards 68 area

Aug 12, 2011 11:32:55 AM EST
mike: ES held at 73.50, and reached 77 on a bounce. This is where the selling has come from over the last 30 minutes, 75. Holds it can get a push higher

Aug 12, 2011 11:35:04 AM EST
mike: need a hold at 76 or above, or will have a reversal. It should hold up we'll see

Aug 12, 2011 11:38:52 AM EST
mike: a pullback should stay over 1178., That 83. Is the next resistance on this move

Aug 12, 2011 11:45:31 AM EST
mike: reached the 83 target/resistance,81-80 looks like that support

Aug 12, 2011 11:54:20 AM EST
mike: the 83-82.50 should be good support, to keep this going. It would take a break of that area to upset the up trend. Not really expecting us to hold all day without a decent pullback

Aug 12, 2011 11:59:12 AM EST
mike: 82.50 help so far, but this sets up a topping pattern, next bounce is a short essay reach 1186 area and reverse

Aug 12, 2011 12:03:40 AM EST
mike: 85.75 was sold,so far, no reversal occurs unless that 82.50 area is broken though. If you slow up there keep it tight leash on shorts for now, nothing bad happens in less they go down and take out 82.50

Aug 12, 2011 12:06:21 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for just a bit. Be back in about 10 or 15 minutes at the most

Aug 12, 2011 12:17:20 AM EST
mike: we have a lunch time high in place, a bounce from here will be sold.. It's the 84.50-85.00 area that's key on the upside, a bounce that stalls around that area should be sold. If they hold under 82 area and pressure should be on

Aug 12, 2011 12:23:54 AM EST
mike: this pullback can last for a while, needs to get over that 83 area that was resistance earlier that hold above that. It's resistance right now

Aug 12, 2011 12:25:21 AM EST
mike: they moved down to the 77-76. It's possible that this gets a bit more momentum by breaking under 1180 and holding, needs to bounce from their war we have some trouble

Aug 12, 2011 12:32:40 AM EST
mike: back at 81 area is a sell,77 or lower is in the cards

Aug 12, 2011 12:37:31 AM EST
mike: the sell at 81 is just a scalp, we might see 82 but should failif this is going to pull back down more time

Aug 12, 2011 12:38:11 AM EST
mike: take two points if you can get them here on a scalpel off 81

Aug 12, 2011 12:39:49 AM EST
mike: shorts are working better now, it will take a push over the 81.50 level and hold on a dip to get out of this downtrend to the 77-76area or lower

Aug 12, 2011 12:59:41 AM EST
mike: the 77 target/support has held so far and that is key now. I think a high is in for the day, don't expect the bounces to stick, a run-up towards the highs, or lower, should set up another good shorting opportunity. Not crazy about the long side unless we see levels quite a bit lower than here, if not today then early next week

Aug 12, 2011 13:18:49 PM EST
mike: they could only get to 81.75 on the bounce, that area has been kind of pivotal.

Aug 12, 2011 13:23:54 PM EST
mike: they can't continue to hold up, bounces are easily sold into without much upside progress

Aug 12, 2011 13:39:40 PM EST
mike: lunchtime selloff was over, this bounce could get over 1182 and try for a test of the high. The 1177 level from early is still support, and also now the 60. EMA on the five-minute chart is right at 1176 (and a rising) and key support the rest of the day

Aug 12, 2011 13:42:31 PM EST
mike: a pullback should hold 1180, if they get back there and hold them look for an entry for a bounce. It really shouldn't get back there, around 82-81.25 is about as far as this should dip

Aug 12, 2011 13:54:59 PM EST
mike: if they can stay over 82 we could get another push towards 86, but that 82 need to hold in the NQ needs to pushover 2191

Aug 12, 2011 13:57:51 PM EST
mike: they rollover, not really good if 82 is not defended, instead broken and held under

Aug 12, 2011 14:02:47 PM EST
mike: while 86 could be in the cards, 82 was broken but quickly reversed. this will say in bullish mode as long as that area not broken/held

Aug 12, 2011 14:15:24 PM EST
mike: I happened fast. Resistance around 82.50 should be sold

Aug 12, 2011 14:18:58 PM EST
mike: 79 area resistance

Aug 12, 2011 14:20:29 PM EST
mike: the market wants to remind us how fast it can drop. Expect a bounce from down here to be sold into. They could go down to the 72-70. Which is a more key support level below

Aug 12, 2011 14:23:03 PM EST
mike: we have a double tops on the NQ and the Dow cash, missed that high area on the ES. Bounces should fail below those high levels. It would just be a retracement in a new downtrend it appears, since the 77 level was cleanly broken

Aug 12, 2011 14:28:22 PM EST
mike: 78.50-79.50 is as far as far as a bouncer should go to keep the downtrend intact

Aug 12, 2011 14:36:10 PM EST
mike: a short covering bounce off of the 73.area, thus 77.50area is turning into resistance now that needs cleared and held. 77 area looks kind of pivotal to get over and hold on a pullback. If that happens, we get a little run up not to break the double top. The market is under pressure under that 77.50 area

Aug 12, 2011 14:39:41 PM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NQ, it's been weaker in pulling the ES with it

Aug 12, 2011 14:40:27 PM EST
mike: if a breakthrough for 72-70 target here on down to the 64.50 area as possible

Aug 12, 2011 14:41:16 PM EST
mike: 67.50 would be the target, my mistake. 72 hit on the nose so far, might be it for a little run higher

Aug 12, 2011 14:47:27 PM EST
mike: the low at 72.25 was made right at 2:40 PM, the time of day for a reversal. I doubt it's going get too far however, since all of the bounces have been sold into. I think we need a drop back towards 1167 or lower so before this can make a rally effort that can stick.

Aug 12, 2011 14:51:11 PM EST
mike: it has been one crazy week, I'm just about tuckered out doing so many updates. I'm going to call it a week in about 10 minutes. Don't trust us on the long side, it might rally but I don't see us in a strong position without doing some good pullback first

Aug 12, 2011 15:04:15 PM EST
mike: must have a lot of shorts still in the market to be squeezed. The market will be safe if they pull that stays over 1175. If that is broken, then we can either had lower and break 72, or hold there and then turn up and give another bounce. The resistance now have 1180 each cleared or will get that pullback.

Aug 12, 2011 15:04:55 PM EST
mike: have a great weekend! I will "see" you here on Monday morning. Take care

 

 

 

 

Thursday August 11, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 11-09:21) mike: big moves overnight, mkt trying to find a bottom. if 1108 area tested, should be as far as a drop goes

(Aug 11-09:23) mike: 1134.00-1135.00 rejected and thats pivotal it looks per last nights update

(Aug 11-09:25) mike: only a few updates until after 10:15 or so...

(Aug 11-09:38) mike: high in

(Aug 11-09:39) mike: if not then 42.50-44.00 area, 1130 area supp need held

(Aug 11-09:41) mike: 36 need cleared/ held

(Aug 11-09:43) mike: 35.75 sold, a drop to 30 needs reversed up. back in 30 min or so

(Aug 11-10:15) mike: that 1136 area has been a lid, but decent bid on the pullbacks so far, so as long as 1130 area holds this can try to chop higher

(Aug 11-10:16) mike: 35.50area needs to be bought on a dip now

(Aug 11-10:27) mike: should pullback from 46 area here, if 41 area reached that needs to be turned right back up

(Aug 11-10:30) mike: later up from 45.75 down to 40.50, turned right back up. That 41.50-39.50 area is key support to avoid a reversal

(Aug 11-10:40) mike: if 1140 broken and held them back in trouble, up here the 48 level needs push through and then hold on a pullback well over 1140

(Aug 11-10:44) mike: there has been some selling into strength this morning, but then on a pullback there has been good buying come in. Right now the market will be out of trouble unless 1140 is broken.

(Aug 11-10:45) mike: need to watch 1149.50 area for resistance. The 46.00-45.50 area looks like it must hold for that looks like rejection that resistance

(Aug 11-10:48) mike: market stays in trend up mode unless 1146.50-1146.00 area is broken now. There is resistance at the 1152 area, but the big area today is still up at 1158 area

(Aug 11-10:55) mike: this is a good, unless 48. Or just below and hold. they need tostay here and run up to take out 57.25. If not then we have another inside day on the ES, and the market would still not be out of trouble short-term.

(Aug 11-10:57) mike: it looks like they failed for now, a bounce back to test the 54 area that turns back down sets up a shorting opportunity

(Aug 11-10:59) mike: 48 area, then down at 46.50-46.00 are the support before the key 1140 area,

(Aug 11-11:07) mike: if no double top, or a 1-2-3 top pattern, then this can attempt 1157.25-1158 area. If they get their and no sign of a turn that down, and a shot at the 1164 area. I need to be away for about 10 minutes or so, looks like 1150 key right now

(Aug 11-11:26) mike: 1140 area is in the cards, need to turn up from there. 48 is resistance now, will need cleared/held to avoid trouble

(Aug 11-11:42) mike: back to poor market action, all the bounces have failed since reaching the top at 1154.25, then buying comes in around the 43 .50-42.50 zone. They don't seem to like it up there around 1150.50-1152.00 area, so look for selling if they get back up there and stall outs. Could also scalp long off of the 43 area but this is acting a bit like yesterday, though the results may not end up being the same

(Aug 11-11:57) mike: they have been dropping back from up here, a move down to 48 needs to bounce right back, or back down towards 43 area

(Aug 11-12:05) mike: they dropped down to 45.75 and turned up, expect this bounce to fail also, especially a test of 50.75-51.50 that is rejected

(Aug 11-12:12) mike: a turn at resistance, again...even though we have a number of reversals up here, but hold on pullbacks of 6.50-7.25 points pullbacks. This one looks like the same deal, if you sold that resistance to onverstay, a drop of more than seven points or so off the high needed to change the dynamics.

(Aug 11-12:19) mike: this action is "easier" to trade than the Friday, Monday, and Tuesday generations... where not having the huge one or two minute fast moves that quickly reverse... Look for a pullback to the 4650-45.75. as key support up here...hold over 52 area needed to get this from being a top, and instead go for the 57-58.

(Aug 11-12:39) mike: if they can stay over 1149 area, they might have a chance to try to break out, which would give a move towards 1157.25-1158.00 area

(Aug 11-12:43) mike: 51.50-50.50 shouldn't be broken if this is going to continue higher towards the 57-58 area, possibly further

(Aug 11-12:46) mike: they should take out 57.25 being this close, a pullback to 52.75 needs to hold now

(Aug 11-12:49) mike: we should see them pull back from just under 59, 54-53 key support

(Aug 11-12:53) mike: a rejection of a key resistance, buyers will back off soon and it dropped down to that 53 area, not much further than that, would need to hold them on a pullback.

(Aug 11-12:54) mike: actually now it's the 55 level that should need to hold, it's also dynamic support on the one minute chart

(Aug 11-13:01) mike: don't fight this move, just yet or unless it's a scalp, as right now the market will stay in good shape-trend up type of action-unless/until first 59.50 is broken, but the key area is now at 55-54

(Aug 11-13:05) mike: they need to balance here, even if so I think that this move is about over and a decent pullback should occur

(Aug 11-13:09) mike: so far the pullback to 58.00-57.25 area has held as support, if they slide back under that area and don't turn right back up there we have a decent pullback, holding for a test of high unless broken, but that high should be sold

(Aug 11-13:28) mike: this pullback needs to bounce off of 55.50-55.00 area at the lowest, 56.50 first, need to hold to get another rally attempt going and not break the trend up action. Stay with buying dips unless there is a break. A high that stalls or reverses can set up a short trade, just a quick scale though

(Aug 11-13:40) mike: if there is another popup to 64 area if they sell

(Aug 11-13:45) mike: it's over now look for the 52-50.50 area for a bounce, it should be a sell on a decent bounce here that stalls

(Aug 11-13:59) mike: I need to be a way for 20 or 30 minutes, my apologies, I'm still looking at that 1152 .00-1150.50 area that was a resistance for 90 minutes before breaking out. This last pullback held just above that area. So that should be pivotal. If this rally stalls and reverses from around 1165, that could be a reversal area. But would expect the pullback/reaction to find buyers around that 52.00-50.50 zone at the lowest that this is going to avoid some trouble late in the day

(Aug 11-14:34) mike: a 1 to 3 top was made, 62 needs to hold or could drop another 10 points towards 52

(Aug 11-14:36) mike: it's still a trend up day unless 62 area breaks, however there was good selling just under 1170 so that should be hard to get through, can trade the short side from here it looks

(Aug 11-14:41) mike: they need to push over 65 and hold, or top end up here

(Aug 11-14:53) mike: strength is being sold, then dip bought. This will stay trend of unless that 62 area has broken and not quickly reversed. There should be selling near the highs however

(Aug 11-14:56) mike: if they don't have trouble on a test of the high,like they should, but instead can push through it with some gusto, they move up to 74.50-75.50 area could be in the cards on this leg up

(Aug 11-15:02) mike: 74.50-75.50 still possible if 68.50 area can hold

(Aug 11-15:11) mike: 75.25 was right in the zone and now the 1168 area is a key support late day here, must turn up their or a top is in at resistance

(Aug 11-15:16) mike: if they stay over 72 and keep pushing, 1178 next and then 1184.50-1185

(Aug 11-15:26) mike: 78 reached, could push higher but I doubt they can get to or through that 84.50-85.00. That rejection from just under 1180 could be meaningful

(Aug 11-15:33) mike: still trend up above 1175, the NQ taking leadership late. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Wednesday August 10, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 10-09:26) mike: i need to be away most of first 60 min or so, a few updates only till after

(Aug 10-09:27) mike: 49.50-50.50 r1

(Aug 10-09:40) mike: 1133.50-1132.50 key, a break gives 25-23 area/43 area resist, 48.50-49.50 key resist

(Aug 10-09:46) mike: 43 holding, 48.50-49.50 reversal area

(Aug 10-09:48) mike: 48.50-49.50 key resist, needs cleared soon or 43 breaks, that 43 key support

(Aug 10-09:51) mike: high at resist, lower low

(Aug 10-09:53) mike: 11000 dow cash, 1149 ES both need cleared/held or still vulnerable

(Aug 10-09:54) mike: back in 30 min

(Aug 10-10:30) mike: they need to push it over 1134, and hold on a dip, just to try getting the outside going. If they test the high, that should be sold but may not get that far. 1128 needs to hold here to not go back towards the low

(Aug 10-10:32) mike: the 34 area needs to hold now

(Aug 10-10:36) mike: it needs to get another go here soon without taking out 1134, even if held, next bounce should fail

(Aug 10-10:39) mike: they dropped to 32.50 but turned up fast, also keep an eye on 2091 on the NQ. That is the key to holding this up

(Aug 10-10:41) mike: this bounce gets sold around the 1140. Here.
(Aug 10-10:41) mike: if not, 1144 and the cards

(Aug 10-10:43) mike: 40 level rejected twice, should go down to 34 area and see if it can avoid breaking down

(Aug 10-10:45) mike: a 9.75 point move in three minutes, that 1140 is not key resistance on a bounce

(Aug 10-10:46) mike: they should go for 1128,

(Aug 10-10:48) mike: 28.50 pullbacks low so far, even if they can bounce from here it should fail under 1140,

(Aug 10-10:58) mike: that 34 should be back as some kind of resistance

(Aug 10-10:59) mike: 33.75 was sold look for 28 or so again for some support

(Aug 10-11:02) mike: bounces have turned back from resistance at 1140 area, and again on the bounce to the 1134 level. Those failures are good, if 1122 breaks, we could go back to the 1110 area on this leg down

(Aug 10-11:07) mike: hardly a bounce off of a lower low, don't expect the upside to get too far before it sold again

(Aug 10-11:10) mike: stay with selling bounces unless they get over 1134, back in about 10 minutes

(Aug 10-11:23) mike: another tradable short off of 1134, stay with that side unless/until broken

(Aug 10-11:25) mike: pressure is on under 28.50 to break the llow

(Aug 10-11:33) mike: if this doesn't reverse from 31 area, could see 34 again. That's now a breakout area, potentially

(Aug 10-11:35) mike: 29.75 rejected this time. Just to take some pressure off, that 1131 will need to be exceeded

(Aug 10-11:38) mike: the first reaction on a breakdown should come from around 1118-1116 area, it can happen as long as they stay under 1126.50

(Aug 10-11:38) mike: 1128 at the maximum

(Aug 10-11:39) mike: 26.50it is, books key here to make or break

(Aug 10-11:42) mike: 1128 it's the resistance now that meets cleared to take off some pressure, in this choppy range down here

(Aug 10-11:45) mike: as long as 25.00-24.50 is held on a pullback, then this choppy action can continue. It still takes a move over 1134 that holds to get out of trouble for a while

(Aug 10-11:52) mike: small bounce off of 26.50, just over that 25 area that needs to hold. If they can't get a run out to stick soon, or that 25 global breaks, market and get sold off again, and 1122.50 would be key to avoid that breakdown

(Aug 10-11:56) mike: next pullback should be bought,but it has to hold around 31

(Aug 10-11:58) mike: this drop stay over 31 level, otherwise back towards 28 area

(Aug 10-12:06) mike: it held at 30.75, pretty close, and then shot right up to 38.50 so far. That 31 is now a key support on a pullback as we have a lunchtime rally attempt underway. 1140 should give a pullback, but if broken then 42-43 would be next before a pullback

(Aug 10-12:14) mike: 1140 was rejected again but if 33.75 isn't broken, stair step up can continue... otherwise, if broken, then back down towards 31 or lower. I need to be away for about 30 minutes, my apologies

(Aug 10-12:43) mike: 35 r

(Aug 10-12:57) mike: 32 supp now

(Aug 10-12:59) mike: 40 still major

(Aug 10-13:02) mike: 35 key s

(Aug 10-13:30) mike: lots of volatility inside this range. They still need a move over 1140, and hold that, to get a good run up going. Otherwise it is a sell the bounce and get out on a dip, scalper market

(Aug 10-13:37) mike: this is winding up tight, late day volatility is very likely. .a good bid on dips, and they could offer around 40. A test of the 28 area should hold, if not then the 22 area where the ES based out before pushing higher to 1140 again.

(Aug 10-13:49) mike: 48 to hold now has a good support

(Aug 10-13:56) mike: 41 .00 and then 41.50 help on dips, 1148 as a small resistance. A pullback from there Nice to say over 1144, or it starts to look like a reversal

(Aug 10-14:00) mike: they went down to 1143 then turned up right away. Still in reverse around 48, need a break up the trend now at 1143

(Aug 10-14:07) mike: still pretty good one minute moves, we have a good trend intact and now 47 .50 is support

(Aug 10-14:12) mike: 1158 the next on the upside.-Spend a trend to move since 1:20 PM, a 50 area kind of key support now

(Aug 10-14:19) mike: reverse off of 57.25, just under the 58 level, a drop down to 41-40 area could be in the cards if the 47 area is not held. A bounce from here should be sold at or under 1158

(Aug 10-14:27) mike: if the market is going to roll over it will do so here in the form of a 123 top

(Aug 10-14:28) mike: but 56 lower high shouldn't be exceeded now

(Aug 10-14:33) mike: this can keep going to break the 47.50 key support if they take out 50

(Aug 10-14:34) mike: pressure on under 54,

(Aug 10-14:35) mike: found towards the 41-40 area...if this cuts through the 47.50 and doesn't quickly turn

(Aug 10-14:42) mike: they topped just under the 58 resistance, pulled back to 47.50, bounced to a lower high at 1156, then reversed to make a 123 top. Pull that off that high reach 44.75 so far, but if it stays under 1150 the pressure is still on, but still see the 41-40 area given recent volatility

(Aug 10-14:51) mike: 41-40 is still in the cards here, must have a reversal there or trouble

(Aug 10-14:58) mike: they reached 41.25, that area needs to be bid up keep the market from having a bad end to the day. A move up to tests that 58 resistance should not happen, but if it does somehow, it should be sold

(Aug 10-15:07) mike: this could go down to test the 31 area if a breakthrough 1138 and can't turn back up. Need to see good strong buying, start around 1138 if touched

(Aug 10-15:08) mike: looks like 31 area in the cards as long as it stays under 41 now

(Aug 10-15:09) mike: 34 is the minimum target then if broken down to 31 or lower

(Aug 10-15:20) mike: there is support hat the 30 area, and around 2088 on the NQ, both of those need to hold. I'm not crazy about the long side but can scale long off of those

(Aug 10-15:25) mike: I'm calling it a day. If you have any feedback please let me hear it. I thought I was doing a pretty good job catching the turns recently, but it just curious how you are doing in this market

(Aug 10-15:26) mike: anyhow, have a good rest of your day

(Aug 10-15:34) mike: a move that breaks 25.25 would mean the market still in trouble

(Aug 10-15:35) mike: and could go back to 1122.50-11 21.50 area. And if that goes than 1110, take care

 

 

Tuesday August 09, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 9-9:19) mike: 1133.50-1134.50 resist , key early. 1122-1120 supp /

(Aug 9-9:29) mike: if they pull back to 28 area, look for bounce back. transition/ pivotal area

(Aug 9-9:31) mike: 38 key r early

(Aug 9-10:01) mike: 33.00-32.00 supp needs held now

(Aug 9-10:09) mike: still just a bounce if no break/ hold over 49.00-49.50 area , 35 needs held now

(Aug 9-10:10) mike: back in 20 min or so

(Aug 9-10:53) mike: 45.00-43.50 is support now, 49.00-49.50 is a major area still, a sell area, or reversal area, if the move is just an oversold bounce

(Aug 9-10:55) mike: 43.50 is the key level now, a bounce from there back to test the high so for, a failure starts a rollover

(Aug 9-11:00) mike: staying under 1146 should keep pressure on now that this is rolling over

(Aug 9-11:03) mike: look for 38 for some support, cover spot on a short taken

(Aug 9-11:07) mike: resistance at the 43.00-43.75 area on this bounce. If that fails there, we could break under 1135 which would be a negative

(Aug 9-11:100 mike: this is turning into a bad pattern that can break down, only a move back over the 43 area that holds can keep this out of trouble

(Aug 9-11:12) mike: for now the oversold bounce is over. A bounce that stalls is a short

(Aug 9-11:29) mike: we can get a test of the high if they stay over 1140. A reversal of there would give a 123 top pattern. the change today is that, so far the dips are being bought.. A pullback that holds 1140 should be bought

(Aug 9-11:33) mike: I need to be away about 10 minutes, it looks like a bounce has to come from 1141 or thereabouts, otherwise a test of 45 will be sold

(Aug 9-12:02) mike: just about to the key resistance, it looks like it could push through. In any case a pullback needs to hold around 1145 to keep trend up intact

(Aug 9-12:11) mike: it has been a trend up for the most part, the ES just rejected the key resistance but pullback to 1145 was held. I think 1145 needs broken to have a high end place. However if this stays trend up into around 2 PM, just before the Fed release at 2:15 PM, reversal tends to occur on a Fed day

(Aug 9-12:20) mike: they are holding 1145, but if they pop up and stall/reverse again (there is already a very small double top there at resistance) then it's a short period if 1145 breaks, then down to the 1140 area which is a stronger support area.

(Aug 9-12:44) mike: for attempts have failed under 1149 area, and the NQ it's dropping off now also. It's a short up there with a fairly tight stop

(Aug 9-12:50) mike: now we have pressure on under 45.50 area, the 41-40 area should be seen

(Aug 9-12:57) mike: from 11:30 AM until just before noon the 1141.00-1140 .00 area acted as support, just before the push up to the major resistance today, and now is a must hold to keep from rolling back over again going into Fed release

(Aug 9-13:04) mike: should be resistance at 41 area now

(Aug 9-13:08) mike: 1138 was a logical support area, needs to hold on a pullback, the 43 area is next decent resistance, and if pushed through that up to the 45 area where the break occurred

(Aug 9-13:17) mike: 43 area was turned back. It looks like up 41 level is like a pivot here, a break under that takes him back down to 38 or lower. A hold and there is potential for one more pop up

(Aug 9-13:28) mike: right down to 41 and trying to hold off of the 43 area. If 41 breaks, then a drop down to 38 or lower is likely. If they get back over 1143 area, a test of the 1149 area one more time is possible. We have the Fed release in 45 minutes. You don't have to trade this chop. Should be easier days ahead if this is not for you. Right now I favor shorts under the 43 area

(Aug 9-13:55) mike: shorts are back in control, the 1137 area now resistance

(Aug 9-13:58) mike: the 28 area needs to hold or be reversed, or we have bigger trouble again. They opened at 1138, and that looks like it's a pivotal area now if there is a decent bounce from down here

(Aug 9-2011 14:05) mike: the market has had plenty of fast, back-and-forth moves the last couple of weeks. So after the Fed release we should have a quick "up down up" type of pattern, or vice versa, and then possibly a trend to move after that. I still consider a 43 area has good resistance, and if cleared we still have the key resistance at 1149.00-1149.50. There should be support around 1128, and if that isn't held them down to1124-1122 area. It's acting like ounces are going to continue to fail for now

(Aug 09-14:14) mike: you could make a run up/head fake and that should be sold into, especially if they pop up to around 38-40 area and then turn. Just let things work out for a bit, then see if a trait sets up. I probably won't update for a bit after the release

(Aug 09-14:25) mike: a run up to around 1128--1130 area that stalls would be a short. Holding over 1110 is extremely important

(Aug 09-14:28) mike: they went just a bit higher then thought, a pullback needs to stay over 1124 area to get another push higher, else dropped towards 1110 again

(Aug 09-14:34) mike: the 24 level was broken, this can drift back down to test 11 10 area if they hold under 1124

(Aug 09-14:47) mike: this has turned ugly again, one support was reached, but 1114 is as far as they bounce should go

(Aug 09-14:55) mike: they went from 1113.50 down to 1108.00, and pushed through that 1114 level. Volatility still big, looks like a 14-13. Needs to hold

(Aug 09-15:03) mike: many traders are on the sidelines, and that's increasing the volatility... You can tell by the thin bids and offers on the dome DOM. This move has resistance at 23.50-24.50, a stall there should bring in selling

(Aug 09-15:16) mike: From 22.75 down to 17.00, a 5.75 point move off of "resistance" that's not even noticeable looking at the chart. as long as a pullback holds that 23 area now, otr down to 1117 at worst, the Bulls are in charge the rest of the day

(Aug 09-15:26) mike: 31.00-30 .50 is now support, and then let 23 area if broken. This could run up to 1144 if they can rally off of that 31 area, if not held them down to1123 area

(Aug 09-15:38) mike: a small double top at 41.50 area, if 30.50 is broken and not quickly reversed,, then this could roll over. Other wise a run up to 1144 still possible. I'd be careful while up there, we did have a reversal at resistance today, and a new low for the move. To look good the ES will need to say over 1138 on the close

(Aug 09-15:39) mike: have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday August 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Aug 8, 2011 9:26:03 AM EST
mike: ES about 30 pts under fair value, we could get a good bounce from lower , but bounces shouldn't stick, 75-76 r, 85 area big r today

Aug 8, 2011 9:39:33 AM EST
mike: good run up, dbl bottom to defend now at 1163-1162. 71-70 area key sup. 79 area r now, then 85 key

Aug 8, 2011 9:50:18 AM EST
mike: 79 area sold, 71 key broke , 66 area must give bounce , 74 area pivotal on top

Aug 8, 2011 9:58:29 AM EST
mike: 66 held so far, econ data 1in 1 minute

Aug 8, 2011 10:03:32 AM EST
mike: 1166 on ES, 11200 dow cash both need held or a break down again. bounces shouldn't stick over 1179

Aug 8, 2011 10:10:28 AM EST
mike: 66 still good/ key supp, not good on a break. a bounce that stalls out a short still, need a hold over 74 area

Aug 8, 2011 10:13:33 AM EST
mike: pressure on under 70

Aug 8, 2011 10:19:10 AM EST
mike: 66 area resist now on a bounce, 54-52 zone in the cards.

Aug 8, 2011 10:27:54 AM EST
mike: 62-63 resist on a bounce now. , 66.00-66.50 if its exceeded will be sold . back in 15-20 min

Aug 8, 2011 10:43:53 AM EST
mike: 1158 resistance here

Aug 8, 2011 10:45:02 AM EST
mike: 52 must hold to avoid a test of low

Aug 8, 2011 10:48:35 AM EST
mike: 52 area is key support now, the reversal there a small plus to keep this market from falling apart. 58-60 area is minor resistance here

Aug 8, 2011 10:51:40 AM EST
mike: 59.75 was sold, they need to hold 1154 on this rollback

Aug 8, 2011 10:58:01 AM EST
mike: the bounce high at 1159.75 will need to be cleared/held to avoid more damage. If they break 1154 and hold, then they pushed to test or break the low is likely in the cards

Aug 8, 2011 11:06:48 AM EST
mike: some of the pressure should be off as long as 1150 isn't broken. If this gets over 1158 and holds, then a move up towards 1163.50 as possible.

Aug 8, 2011 11:16:26 AM EST
mike: it went farther than I thought, but volatility is high so it's not really a surprise. This pullback needs to hold around 1162-1160 or we can have another bounce high in place and go for at least 1158 and maybe 1154

Aug 8, 2011 11:24:26 AM EST
mike: should bounce there at 58 to avoid more trouble on the downside

Aug 8, 2011 11:30:31 AM EST
mike: we need to see 1161 cleared/held, or test the lows, or 54 area at least

Aug 8, 2011 11:39:59 AM EST
mike: so far held just over 1154, 1154.50 low. This needs to push over 1158 and hold that on a pullback in order to get a push higher going, still vulnerable unless that happens pretty soon

Aug 8, 2011 11:52:04 AM EST
mike: we are getting some erratic trading action coming into the lunchtime trade. the 61 area has been resistance, and 54.50.

Aug 8, 2011 12:03:58 AM EST
mike: 60.75 was rejected, they drop through 58 which is turning into a pivotal area, and are on their way to testing and may be breaking 1154, if that happens, any bounce that follows should fail. Right now it's still a short on bounces that stall out under 1161

Aug 8, 2011 12:19:32 AM EST
mike: turning into a trend down day, the 57-58 area needs cleared/held, otherwise we stay in download to test 47.50 or low or lower

Aug 8, 2011 12:36:48 AM EST
mike: it looks like 1149.50-1149.00 is going to be key down here, along with 2110-2108 on the NASDAQ. I think we are getting short covering down there, and a decent bounce will be re-shorted

Aug 8, 2011 12:37:31 AM EST
mike: I would avoid longs, it's still eight and a down market until we get any proof of a turn

Aug 8, 2011 12:41:21 AM EST
mike: they have to make it run up over 1152 area, and then have 1152 hold on a pullback, in order to try to get anything going on the upside. Unless that happens, the pressure is on to breakthrough 1147.50

Aug 8, 2011 12:44:03 AM EST
mike: a pullback to 1152 area needs to hold now, 1158 area next resistance

Aug 8, 2011 12:47:29 AM EST
mike: they need to get going from 51 there, at worst. Still don't expect a run-up to stick but it could be a pretty good move for before reversing given this current volatility. The 57-58 sans is key on this amounts, needs to push through next

Aug 8, 2011 12:57:11 AM EST
mike: there ran up off of 51, but didn't stick, and couldn't even get to the 57-58.. They have to get over that area if we're going to try to get a bottom in place, at least for awhile. Markets still trending down unless that's exceeded

Aug 8, 2011 13:06:30 PM EST
mike: the 1155.00-1155.50 area has turned into "a lid" on the upside. It needs to be cleared otherwise still trend down

Aug 8, 2011 13:14:03 PM EST
mike: we're going to break down here

Aug 8, 2011 13:14:39 PM EST
mike: 1142 area is possible, also a number that 1136.

Aug 8, 2011 13:34:28 PM EST
mike: another failed bounce off a low, 1152. Looks kind of pivotal-still. If they go down to test the low, or make a slightly lower low, and reverse, we could get another 5-7point run-up. The 1155.00-1155.50 area is still the key resistance to clear short-term here

Aug 8, 2011 13:42:12 PM EST
mike: 1142 area met, a bounce could occur, but fail again under 47 area, and we could see 1138 or lower if the ES fails at tha 47-48 area

Aug 8, 2011 13:50:57 PM EST
mike: the 1138 area tested, no sign of a decent bounce just yet. it's still a trend down day, the low could be made in the last 15 minutes of stock trading if this continues. The ES will need to get over the 46-47 area now to put a dent in the downside momentum. the last level under 1138 would be down at 1128 level. Under that, not really sure without looking at the ways.

Aug 8, 2011 14:09:25 PM EST
mike: look for a short covering bounce off a new low, a decent bounce could occur, or just pass on on buying, sell the next bounce stalls

Aug 8, 2011 14:18:38 PM EST
mike: it still trim down as long as they stay under 35.50-36.50 zone, not much higher than that, should be reversed to keep this going. the 1128 last line of support just cut through

Aug 8, 2011 14:28:07 PM EST
mike: a 10 point bounce in just two minutes... 27.50-28.00. His resistance, minor

Aug 8, 2011 14:33:20 PM EST
mike: under normal market conditions, I would expect a decent bounce to come off of that low at 1115, but these aren't normal conditions. A decent rally could occur, something like 20 points or so on the ES, but would need to push over 28 and hold that on a pullback to get going, or try to.

Aug 8, 2011 14:35:33 PM EST
mike: 1135.75 is dynamic resistance area for this move to turn down from, otherwise the dynamics change

Aug 8, 2011 14:52:46 PM EST
mike: they reached 34.75 on the bounce, if 1125 not held, then a test of the lows. it looks kind of key to stay over now

Aug 8, 2011 15:09:00 PM EST
mike: that 1115 could be a decent low for a rally that last a day or two, let's see about one day first. A pullback should hold around that area if tested, right now we still have to get over 1135 area, and then stay over 1130 on a pullback

Aug 8, 2011 15:16:29 PM EST
mike: the 45.50-46.50 area is resistance, then the 50.50 area have cleared

Aug 8, 2011 15:18:10 PM EST
mike: 46.50 turned it back, date ranges even on a one minute chart, the 37.50 area looks like pivotal support if they pullback

Aug 8, 2011 15:34:42 PM EST
mike: not impossible for us to see a test of the low with about 15 minutes left in stock trading, or a little less than that. 1130 area is key to hold to avoid that. 1138 and resistance end of day

Aug 8, 2011 15:40:45 PM EST
mike: the 1135-1137 zone will need cleared/held end of day to avoid a late drop. It will take a break of that 1128 that's not quickly reversed to turn this down to test the low.

Aug 8, 2011 16:03:58 PM EST
mike: retesting last 10 minutes of futures trading should have been a call, anyway, Bears win. I hope I kept you on the right side today. Take care

 

 

 

Friday August 05, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Aug 5, 2011 9:29:55 AM EST
mike: 19.50 area resist, 1202.30 supp early.

Aug 5, 2011 9:36:29 AM EST
mike: 15.50 is 60ema on 5 min chart and key this morn

Aug 5, 2011 9:39:20 AM EST
mike: of 08 breaks, 02.25 test , thats key this morn to rally from

Aug 5, 2011 9:46:11 AM EST
mike: 1212 pivotal resist

Aug 5, 2011 9:49:22 AM EST
mike: 02.50 key, else 1200 must hold, 08 resist then 12 key 1

Aug 5, 2011 9:51:28 AM EST
mike: 05 good resist now

Aug 5, 2011 9:53:36 AM EST
mike: 1188.25-1187.50

Aug 5, 2011 9:55:17 AM EST
mike: 1182.00-1181.00 the major area, or a drop to 1168 area

Aug 5, 2011 9:59:01 AM EST
mike: 93.50 resist, then 98.75 .

Aug 5, 2011 10:00:22 AM EST
mike: 82-81 should be seen, must hold there

Aug 5, 2011 10:02:31 AM EST
mike: 1283.00 low, 11300 on dow cash. a break/ hold under that gets ugly. bounces should be sold

Aug 5, 2011 10:09:35 AM EST
mike: low in for a bit anyway just over major 1182 area. 98 area resist, needs cleared, should pullback

Aug 5, 2011 10:16:00 AM EST
mike: very good moves even on 1 min basis, 4.50 point gyration almost ''normal''. 96 good resist, 98 if exceeded. a test of lows need instant reversal up. back in 30 min.

Aug 5, 2011 10:56:12 AM EST
mike: a test of 1193 should be sold, this is a week still

Aug 5, 2011 10:59:25 AM EST
mike: 94.25 will be next, if no turn down from 93

Aug 5, 2011 11:01:22 AM EST
mike: 94.25 was sold, 90.50 is support now that needs to hold

Aug 5, 2011 11:06:19 AM EST
mike: and this environment, it's possible to get three or four points in just a few minutes. Wait for the bounces to stall, then get in and ride it for a few points or sign of a stall at a low. It looks like a test of the lows as possible on this push down

Aug 5, 2011 11:15:31 AM EST
mike: test of the low not bought up at all.--about needs to get over 1189-1190 would need cleared/held to get out of trouble here.

Aug 5, 2011 11:17:45 AM EST
mike: 1284.50-1285.00 is resistance now, if cleared then 1288 area

Aug 5, 2011 11:28:29 AM EST
mike: finally they move with some gusto., 12.75 points in six minutes. Need to stay over 1183 area now

Aug 5, 2011 11:36:07 AM EST
mike: dropped to 82.25 was quickly reversed, if 83 is broken and held them to market those four 1175 area or a bit lower

Aug 5, 2011 11:46:49 AM EST
mike: ballots failed at 1283, that area is pivotal now. Look four 1275 or lower if we stay under that

Aug 5, 2011 11:54:50 AM EST
mike: the market is acting like it did yesterday, watch 1179 for good resistance now. All buyers over the last two weeks are in a deep hole and will be anxious to sell on any decent bounce, not much interest in buying this, knowing it won't go far before getting hit again and

Aug 5, 2011 11:56:55 AM EST
mike: there is one number at 1168, then I need to do some work to find out what's below, but that could be a magnet

Aug 5, 2011 12:02:45 AM EST
mike: 73 area resistance on this bounce

Aug 5, 2011 12:11:07 AM EST
mike: pushed through 73, right here at 79 is resistance

Aug 5, 2011 12:15:14 AM EST
mike: we have a noon/lunch time low and after a trend down morning. a pullback should hold over 76.75 for now

Aug 5, 2011 12:31:12 AM EST
mike: getting over 92.50 is key to getting out of trouble today. If 1179 is not held on this pullback, we could go back into a good downtrend and possibly test the lows if that is not defended as good support

Aug 5, 2011 12:39:10 AM EST
mike: a pullback should hold around 1190 now to keep this upside going

Aug 5, 2011 12:44:23 AM EST
mike: they held at 1290.25. We have a trend up off the low, a push over 1202 area needed to avoid a reversal in this area

Aug 5, 2011 12:48:47 AM EST
mike: 1190.25, not 1290.25... big move has me making typos. They should reverse around 1208, if we're going to have another pullback. Big moves in both directions, a backlog off from that area likely

Aug 5, 2011 12:53:02 AM EST
mike: 1204 needs to hold, and the 1212. It is resistance that should turn the market back

Aug 5, 2011 13:04:47 PM EST
mike: the move fizzled out, good resistance around 1208, a pullback base to stay over 1200.50 or this is turning again

Aug 5, 2011 13:07:38 PM EST
mike: 13.75 points in just five minutes, and the selling was pretty well contained... be patient enough to catch just one of these and it makes your day.

Aug 5, 2011 13:21:01 PM EST
mike: I need a short break, that action is enough to make one a bit dizzy. We should have a low in short-term, but a decent pullback to retest that love should occur when this move burns out. maybe not today then early next week. In any case, there is still what should be key resistance at 1212 and good support around 1194.50-1193.50. on a tip.

Aug 5, 2011 13:53:45 PM EST
mike: 1200-1198 area is support in this range, resistance at 1210 then what should be a key area at 1212, if 1212 is blown through, the Hyatt 1215.50 will be a target to potentially give a big reversal day

Aug 5, 2011 13:59:13 PM EST
mike: 1212.25 was rejected, if 1205 area is broken/held that a high for the afternoon could be in place., The 1200-1298 area would be in play if they hold under 1205.

Aug 5, 2011 14:12:22 PM EST
mike: top-down at 1212 area, now 1198 must hold and get the market turned around, otherwise more trouble towards 93

Aug 5, 2011 14:33:21 PM EST
mike: the market had a really good bounce off of the noon low and that fizzled out just before 2 PM and at a 1212 resistance. The pullback held the 1198 support, and that is key to stay over or we'll see a rush for the exit again today

Aug 5, 2011 14:56:10 PM EST
mike: they took out 1198, 1193 in the cards before a bounce attempt

Aug 5, 2011 15:03:25 PM EST
mike: this stays bearish as long as 1200 is not cleared/held and 1193 is a downside target

Aug 5, 2011 15:11:41 PM EST
mike: in the last hour, watch 1197 if they bounce, as that should be strong resistance at at 1197 +/- about one point

Aug 5, 2011 15:12:32 PM EST
mike: I am going to call her week. Quite a week it was! I'll see you there ready to go on Monday morning. Have a great weekend
 

 

 

Thursday August 04, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Aug 4, 2011 9:25:56 AM EST
mike: 48 area key resist 1, then 1254, 1258 still big resist. / 1238.00-1237.50 area supp, a hold under bad , pressure on

Aug 4, 2011 9:37:02 AM EST
mike: 42 resist

Aug 4, 2011 9:39:32 AM EST
mike: 41.50-42.00 needs cleared/ held

Aug 4, 2011 9:42:28 AM EST
mike: good bid at 37 area, must hold,

Aug 4, 2011 9:43:35 AM EST
mike: still needs over 42 or vulnerable

Aug 4, 2011 9:51:06 AM EST
mike: 30 next if 33 not held, , maybe 28 area. 39 area needs cleared / held now, then 41.50-42.00 key

Aug 4, 2011 9:54:03 AM EST
mike: 11700 on dow cash tested, still, need over 37 now just to try a turn up

Aug 4, 2011 9:58:25 AM EST
mike: 37.50 rejected, needs pushed thru soon

Aug 4, 2011 10:03:22 AM EST
mike: a hold over 35.50 keep upside going, 42 key to clear on bounce

Aug 4, 2011 10:05:28 AM EST
mike: 38 needs exceeded/ held or trend dn going . back in 15 min

Aug 4, 2011 10:30:57 AM EST
mike: 1233 needs held, if it is a bouncer to 37.50 would be the maximum before turning back

Aug 4, 2011 10:35:25 AM EST
mike: 1233 held in a run up to just under 1237 and it stalled. 1233 is now the key support

Aug 4, 2011 10:44:38 AM EST
mike: must see a reversal from 1228 area, otherwise the trouble today

Aug 4, 2011 10:48:22 AM EST
mike: don't expect a bounce to stick

Aug 4, 2011 10:49:38 AM EST
mike: this should be a two-sided day with a downside bias, a decent bounce will be sold into

Aug 4, 2011 11:00:13 AM EST
mike: it's really in bad shape now, a four point bounce on the ES should fail, 1225 and then down to around 1222 I think.

Aug 4, 2011 11:03:37 AM EST
mike: a bounce off of 23, that's now he support. 27 area should turn this back if going to continue to move lower

Aug 4, 2011 11:16:46 AM EST
mike: 1224-1223 zone is he to hold on a test.

Aug 4, 2011 11:29:13 AM EST
mike: Strong resistance just under 1230 now, it stays trend down under that

Aug 4, 2011 11:46:33 AM EST
mike: they ES has broken most all of the key support, the only area below is 1218, then down at the 12th 14-1212 band, it's still under pressure under 1222 now

Aug 4, 2011 11:51:36 AM EST
mike: the drop to 1212 was fast, bounce back towards 1217.50-1219.00.should be sold

Aug 4, 2011 12:08:13 AM EST
mike: 1221 area has some resistance, 1212 could be a good low, will see. a poll but needs to stay over 1218 or they will start rolling over again.

Aug 4, 2011 12:18:43 AM EST
mike: the pullback hell that 1218.25 and turned right back up. But 1223 area is looking key, 20. EMA on five-minute chart, high area before the drop to 1212. If it's pushed through, then 1221 turns into key support that must hold or we get a pullback

Aug 4, 2011 12:25:37 AM EST
mike: the market stays the vulnerable under 1223, the next bounce should fail under that level

Aug 4, 2011 12:29:12 AM EST
mike: it should roll over here at 1222 if it's going to head lower. There is a pretty good bid below and at least for now

Aug 4, 2011 12:34:00 AM EST
mike: if they can hang in here and stay over 1223, a move back to around 1228 as possible, 1230 is he resistance this afternoon

Aug 4, 2011 12:53:00 AM EST
mike: reached 1228, a pullback needs to stay over1226 to grind higher, otherwise it rolls over

Aug 4, 2011 13:10:13 PM EST
mike: about sky at 1228 and is now key to get over and hold how. we had a trend down move to 1212and then a trend of move to the 1228 resistance. As poor as the market has acted, the market is a short under that 1228 area.

Aug 4, 2011 13:31:38 PM EST
mike: the pullback from 1228 stopped at 1221.25, and is back to 1225., A short on bonds is still under 1228

Aug 4, 2011 13:36:24 PM EST
mike: sorry, I meant short on a bounce under 1228

Aug 4, 2011 13:55:17 PM EST
mike: stay with selling bounces. I need to be away for just a bit

Aug 4, 2011 14:21:02 PM EST
mike: stay with shorting bounces, they can't stick

Aug 4, 2011 14:32:43 PM EST
mike: 1208 has a small support area, if that is broken then we can go towards 1202, but likely under 1200.1212 area is now small resistance

Aug 4, 2011 14:34:25 PM EST
mike: 1216-1217 is a pivotal battles resistance area

Aug 4, 2011 14:50:03 PM EST
mike: 1220 is a key resistance going into three o'clock, if cleared 1223 should be seen and sold

Aug 4, 2011 15:11:22 PM EST
mike: we have a little bubble top at 1219.50, if that's pushed through, and this is like yesterday, we could see 1223 reached before another pullback. First though they need to get over 1219.50 and not fail here

Aug 4, 2011 15:16:05 PM EST
mike: should drop down through 1212

Aug 4, 2011 15:22:18 PM EST
mike: if there's no quick reversal on a test of the low here, we're going down to 1202 area

Aug 4, 2011 15:29:14 PM EST
mike: end of day, staying under 1212 should keep pressure on, it takes a break/hold over that too avoid a poor close

Aug 4, 2011 15:29:48 PM EST
mike: 1202 is the next downside

Aug 4, 2011 15:33:45 PM EST
mike: resistance at around 1209 area now, I still think it goes to 1202 now, possibly under 1200 on this leg down

Aug 4, 2011 15:42:15 PM EST
mike: that 1202 area might be on wait for another day. This is a last 30 minute short cover bounce, not much gusto to it., If they stay under 1210-1212 that we still could see 1202. Anyhow, have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday August 03, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 03-09:38) mike: 53.50 needs traded over for a few minutes to change minor trend. a test of 1244 if hold under

(Aug 03-09:41) mike: ISM at 10am.

(Aug 03-09:50) mike: stayed under 53.50, 48.75 resist

(Aug 03-09:53) mike: 1250 pivotal it looks.

(Aug 03-10:05) mike: it looks like we are going to have a 2 sided day. 58 key if 54 not rejected.. / if break lower, 44 in cards

(Aug 03-10:09) mike: 48 needs broken/ held, 54 same on top. 1250.50 center-point/ pivotal level. back in 15-20 min

(Aug 03-10:34) mike: it's another ugly day going so far, just sell bounces, they won't stick. If 1238 is held on a break, then we can see 1233 area

(Aug 03-10:41) mike: after 38 was broken, 1233 was reached in just one minute. That's pretty vicious on the downside... a five point move on the upside lately will take an hour or more. 1228 is the next area, and likely broken through also

(Aug 03-10:51) mike: need a pushover 1339 area to try to get out of trouble for a bit. You move over 36 states to hold, not its sole loss here

(Aug 03-10:57) mike: 36.00-35.50 needs held only pull back now. 1240.50 area is last trapped from prior low, should pull back from there, or else we can go back to 1244

(Aug 03-11:02) mike: 1244 area should get a reaction, a dip should hold around 1240.50

(Aug 03-11:15) mike: we got the reaction off of the 44 area, a 44.75 high, and the pullback held that 39. That was a pullback low before getting to the 44.75 bounce high end needs to hold to avoid a test of the 1230 area, and maybe see the major 1328 before another decent bounce occurs

(Aug 03-11:20) mike: the 42.50 area should hold on a pullback now if the rally is going to continue. It really shouldn't go any further than that to keep this bounce alive

(Aug 03-11:33) mike: 42.50 area was held, , looks key now, this move will need some gusto or will have a reversal from under 1258 again

(Aug 03-11:49) mike: the next bounce made a double top , the 60 period EMA on the five minute chart--that was dynamic resistance all day yesterday, I think that needs cleared and held to change the trend, that area is at total 49 area.

(Aug 03-12:00) mike: 42.50-42.00 area is now key support., If that is broken then pressure should be back on the downside. this bounce failed so far

(Aug 03-12:15) mike: 1242 has turned into a transition area, it's a short under that, it must be cleared/held or we get another drop under 1238 or more

(Aug 03-12:27) mike: they dropped to 36.75 so far, if short you might want to cover in here, or at least tighten your stop.

(Aug 03-12:29) mike: I will be and out over the next 30 minutes. Stay with shorts on bounces unless the 42 area is taken out, and can hold. It's still weak if it can't do that

(Aug 03-12:42) mike: 42 was rejected, 39.75 needs to be held and pushed higher from there if reached to not roll back over again

(Aug 03-12:52) mike: this is bullish over 42

(Aug 03-13:26) mike: 42.50 needs to hold now, one more push up towards 1248 that stalls/reverses should set up a decent pullback

(Aug 03-13:36) mike: they held at 42.75 and reached at 1248 area, but no stall/reversal there yet. A move under 47 needs quickly reversed up to avoid the pullback

(Aug 03-13:44) mike: they held at 1247.75, then continued the upside. the 1254 is good resistance , or should be, if not then this goes parabolic up to the 1258 area. The 1250. Needs to hold to keep this strong uptrend intact

(Aug 03-13:53) mike: key here at the 50 area, a bounce back to test the highs should be sold now

(Aug 03-14:11) mike: we should get a pullback from either a test of 1255 that turns down, or by breaking the 1250.50 support

(Aug 03-14:24) mike: the bounce reverse from just one tick under 1255 and the pullback started. At 1255 area is now key resistance, the market in bearish mode unless that area is cleared and held. It will take a hold under 1250 put pressure back on the downside

(Aug 03-14:36) mike: a move down towards the 43 area should be good support if it's reached.

(Aug 03-14:52) mike: can keep going as long as 1248 isn't broken, it doesn't look like it has far to go right now

(Aug 03-15:19) mike: there has been a good bid on the pullbacks, so unless at 1249 area is broken and not a reverse late in the day, things should be okay to try to make higher prices. Just be careful around 1258 and that is reached

 

 

Tuesday  August 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 02-09:28) mike: should be a 2 sided day. 1366.00-1265.25 is key area, if it gets ugly then 1258 area major.

(Aug 02-09:42) mike: 78 resist, 75.50 supp

(Aug 02-09:48) mike: 75.50 held on dip, 79.75-80.50 small resist

(Aug 02-09:50) mike: 77.50 area key now

(Aug 02-09:54) mike: thats it for upside

(Aug 02-09:55) mike: if not a move to 82.50-83.00 will be a reversal area / 75.50 still a key supp

(Aug 02-10:05) mike: i will be away until 11:50am or thereabouts. 80.50 needs pushed theru or a pullback. 75.50 key supp now

(Aug 02-11:03) mike: i'll be back on in about 10 minutes. , a bounce to 72.50-73.00 area resist, a sell on a test, NQ lead dog on dnside

(Aug 02-11:39) mike: they need to push over 1270.50, just to break this down side trend, It's a short under that. If it Exceeded, Then 72.50 is resistance about

(Aug 02-11:43) mike: 1266.00-1265.25 area needs reversed if tested, if no hold then we could go down to test 1258 major area

(Aug 02-11:51) mike: a double bottom at 1273 support failed after a 3.50 point bounce. This double bottom at 1267.25 could get us back towards that 1272-1273 area if 1270.50 is exceeded and held.

(Aug 02-12:08) mike: still no over 1270.50. That's needed to get anything going, or started, on the upside at this moment

(Aug 02-12:18) mike: who vote on the budget under way, the range to break out of its 1270.50 on top, for the1266.00-1265.25 support area. A test of that, if reversed, could be worth a trade on the long side.

(Aug 02-12:23) mike: this needs to stay over of the 69.75 area now on a dip

(Aug 02-12:35) mike: there is just no stick on these bounces,, yet, so look for those pop-ups to stall for a short, and if they go down to the 1266 area in reverse back up then a quick trade on the long side possible. Sell the bounces until proven that there is some strength that will hold

(Aug 02-12:38) mike: 68.50 a small resistance to get out of a long if you took it off of 1266. Still not a good-looking market

(Aug 02-12:42) mike: if long, this was an exit. If they do go higher, still good resistance not far above, 71.50-73.00 area should be strong if reached

(Aug 02-12:47) mike: the bounce to 68.50 actually turned into a better short, and I suspect that these bounces will continue to do the same (run up, stall, reverse). Unless the 1271.50-1273.00 area is exceeded, the market is bearish

(Aug 02-12:51) mike: the 1266.00-1266.50 area now is resistance on a bounce

(Aug 02-12:59) mike: the 64 level now resistance that needs cleared/held to get a little bounce going

(Aug 02-13:04) mike: 66.00-66.50 is still resistance earlier, and looks kind of important to get over/hold.

(Aug 02-13:24) mike: they stalled at 66.25, but the pullback was just too 1263.75, that 1263.75-1263.25 area is key support,. so far below is just a few points above the 1258 major support area, if there is one more drop then that should be reversed, other wise the market is in bigger trouble still on the short-term. Watch 1266 now, it needs to hold or be quickly reversed if broken

(Aug 02-13:39) mike: we just tested the low, however it has been a basic trend down day. sell pop ups

(Aug 02-13:53) mike: if this continues, then the low could be made with about 30 minutes to go in stock trading, it will take a move that over 1264, and probably more importantly the 1266., To get out of this... 1258 should be in the cards

(Aug 02-14:02) mike: 1258 reached, and right around 2 PM. If the market wasn't looking so ugly, it would set up a good trade on the long side, but no go. Good resistance now around the 1261.00-1262.00 area on a bounce, it needs clear/then held

(Aug 02-14:14) mike: , to change the symmetry, a move over 1264.50 would be needed. I hate to pick bottoms, I'll hold the pun, but it looks like that 1258 low might be in for a while,. if 1264.50 is exceeded

(Aug 02-14:24) mike: 1264.50 was rejected, it looks like 1261.50 is as far as this pullback should go

(Aug 02-14:26) mike: 1264.50 was rejected, small support at 1261.50, but the ES needs to get over 1264.50, and hold, otherwise it is still in bad shape

(Aug 02-14:49) mike: an attempt to double bottom at a key support area... it looks like now the 1262.50. Needs exceeded to take some pressure off. The way this his acting, don't expect a bounce to hold, and if all 58 is broken then we should go next pound two 1252, and that should be very important support on a better picture basis.

(Aug 02-15:04) mike: we should have a good double bottom in place but only if 1265.00 is taken out on this rally. Otherwise the market is still vulnerable and can pullback towards 1262 , and hold there if it is trying to make a bottom. if 1262 not held, we may see 1258 one more time

(Aug 02-15:11) mike: pullback held at 1262.75. The 1262.75-1262.25 area as looking like a key support end of day, if they don't break out over 1264.50, and then break that support, there's still a chance to go back to the 1258 area one more time. Will

(Aug 02-15:14) mike: this could go for a low right around 3:30 PM, unless the low is already in. That would be the time frame for a low for the day. It still can be unless 1264.50 is cleared/held.

(Aug 02-15:24) mike: if they don't bounce from a lower low meet around 3:30 PM, then we could go for 1252 area. But what expect some short covering if reached before the close. Have a good rest of the day! See you here tomorrow morning

(Aug 02-15:29) mike: one last comment, we got our low, the resistance is at the 1260.50 area now, I still wouldn't buy this just yet. Have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday  August 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 01-09:24) mike: the 1302.25-1303.00 has to cleared and held early, not rejected. if it does clear/hold the next resist area at 1307.75-1308.75 . 1298-1287 now a resist turned supp early, needs reversed on a test. ISM Index and Construction Spending at 10am. instant message a bit after 10am. in and out this morning

(Aug 01-09:35) mike: big failure on open, bounces sold . 1298-87 a key supp, then
(Aug 01-09:36) mike: 98-97 reversed, 1302 pivotal resist now
(Aug 01-09:45) mike: 1300.50 pivotal. 92.50 area next supp

(Aug 01-09:48) mike: 98 area pivotal now. 92.50 magnet it looks, ISM top of hour. back near 10:10 or so

(Aug 01-10:02) mike: 92.50 area now pivotal, a sell on the bounces could be trend day , with retracements

(Aug 01-10:28) mike: the test of Friday's low held by one tick, otherwise we would have an outside day already. That area is really important now it looks a break of that would need reversed from just a bit below, like around 1275.50,otherwise we have some trouble in 1272 could be in the cards

(Aug 01-10:32) mike: 85.50-86.50 is he resistance that needs to be cleared to break this trend,/ grind lower....

(Aug 01-10:53) mike: 1282 may still hold dear. If there is a pop up to around 1286.50, that should be sold. If 1282 breaks, and a test of the low, likely a slightly lower level, could still be in the cards before a decent bounce it's going

(Aug 01-10:57) mike: right now it's a short under 1283
(Aug 01-10:58) mike: 80 key or to 78

(Aug 01-11:15) mike: 1279.50-1280.75 area is resistance on this bounce. A triple bottom is not common, a lower low still possible if that resistance not cleared/held

(Aug 01-11:29) mike: small pullback from 79.25 was sold down to just 77.50 before turning back up..the 1278 area needs to hold on a pullback now, otherwise the trend down day still in gear

(Aug 01-11:32) mike: 1278was held so far, but I may be wrong on that, they might bounce but the 1280.75 resistance turn this back, that's the key resistance now that he's cleared/held on a pullback in order to get out of trend down action

(Aug 01-11:43) mike: it has been a Gap day/trend day, and if this stays under 1281 or thereabouts, this selling could last until the closing bell. In any case, don't expect the bounces to stick, the 1281 area is key now. 1276.50 prior low area was sold after it was broken, and it's now a minor resistance

(Aug 01-12:04) mike: we're going to get the lunchtime bounce attempt it looks, the 1276.50 is still key to get above and then hold. A drop to a lower low will likely bened back up and make a bounce of a few points..... I'll be in and out for the next 30 minutes or so, may not be able to update for a little bit

(Aug 01-12:34) mike: 1374.50 is a pivotal resistance, a failure again sends us down towards the low. A break above that, that holds, it is a start of a bounce towards 1276.50, but resistance now around 1280-1281 area

(Aug 01-12:41) mike: not much gusto behind this, but should be in bounce mode now, a move up to 76.50 would be first, if that's not rejected then we could move back towards 1280-1281 area, potentially. That should be pretty strong resistance if they get there
(Aug 01-12:42) mike: skip that,

(Aug 01-12:44) mike: 74.75 bounce high, was sold, they got do better than that if if this is going to get going on the upside

(Aug 01-12:53) mike: 76.50 should be reached, if they pull back from their then wide 74.254 support

(Aug 01-13:07) mike: 76.50 was missed, and instead a small double top at 1276 was put in. this is still a basic trend down day, they need to get over that 76.50and better yet the 1280 level in order to get out of trouble for a law

(Aug 01-13:24) mike: back to 1276, and backing off a bit.. the 1273 level acted as good support, just as well at 1276 area has acted as resistance. A pullback needs to hold around 1274 to keep the market in position to get turned around. down here

(Aug 01-13:33) mike: 1274.50 held, so that might be the low for that pullback.,, it at least has to hold now or be quickly reversed if broken

(Aug 01-13:46) mike: a pullback held at 1275.00 in this slow and choppy grind higher off the low. But the 1276.50 was sold, that needs punched through, and then hold over 1275.50 area on a pullback to keep this level of trend intact

(Aug 01-14:00) mike: new spending on the budget, watch the 1275.50 area, it needs to hold on a dip to keep this little grind higher off the low from breaking

(Aug 01-14:05) mike: I meant "news pending", not "new spending".... the bounce high is in, 1277 and 2336 on NASDAQ

(Aug 01-14:15) mike: pullback place to stay over 72.50, otherwise it can test the low. A bounce off of that 73.00-72.50 area should be a decent one if the market is going to try to dig out of this hole. 1275 area now resistance, needs cleared and held to take some pressure off

(Aug 01-14:25) mike: 1275 was reached and sold, a bounce now needs to take that out and then hold at least over 1274 to keep from dropping back test or break the low

(Aug 01-14:38) mike: 73.00-72.50 area should hold on a pullback, -- but it takes a move over 1266-1277 that sticks to start to get a bottom in place.1274.50 should be broken the market is turning back up

(Aug 01-14:44) mike: 1277 was sold,a pullback to 1275 area needs to hold in any case to go higher, or just avoid trouble

(Aug 01-14:48) mike: they should try for the 1280 area, 1276.50-1276 100 area is support now.

(Aug 01-14:54) mike: pullback to 76.50 held in now still should try for the 1280-1281 zone, that should be good resistance

(Aug 01-15:05) mike: reached the 80-81 zone pretty easily, as long as 1279.50 can't hold, the market will avoid trouble the rest of the day. That looks pivotal, if no bounce there, then the 1276. Will be the key support at the end of the day

(Aug 01-15:15) mike: a big gap down open, going trend it down until around noon, when the lunchtime turnaround occurred. That was a grind higher to 1277, then the downtrend resumed to 1272.25. The market got its legs there, got over 1276.50-1277.00 and held 1276.50 on a dip and we got a bounce back today resistance area at 1282. That was rejected, 1279.50 tested, and 1276.50 would be in the cards of 1279 breaks can we get an end of day pulled that/drop. The market will be better shape if it can stay over that 1276.50 area. Must hold here, or will test that.

(Aug 01-15:25) mike: think long over 1279.50. As long as that holds, nothing bad happens the rest of the day. 1284 area would be next resistance

(Aug 01-15:27) mike: 1283.50 so far, that should be sold into the market is going to stay in what should be a new trading range under 1287-1288

(Aug 01-15:27) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday  July 29, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 29-09:21) mike: another ugly day to start.... the 1286.50-1285.50 area looking pivotal early, if cleared then 1291.50-1292.50 resist, looks key, needs cleared / held. the 1278.50-1277.50 zone is the area that needs reversed, 1284 area on SPX , SP500 Cash.

(Jul 29-09:38) mike: 85.50-86,50 will need cleared/ held on dip

(Jul 29-09:42) mike: 12100 dow cash, 1280.50 ES, looks like big supp, but not outta trouble unless 1285.00-1286.50 cleared.

(Jul 29-09:45) mike: careful here, econ data this morn too.

(Jul 29-09:48) mike: 1278.50-1277.50 and 200d ma touched. not outta trouble unless 1285.50-1286.50 exceeded

(Jul 29-09:51) mike: 82 pivotal

(Jul 29-10:00) mike: a low right on key supp, now resist 88.50 then 92.00-92.50 then max 1295 area resist... 84.75-84,.00 as far as a dip should go if uptrend to stay intact

(Jul 29-10:04) mike: 84 key now, pivotal .

(Jul 29-10:15) mike: bearish patterns, even tho a rally off major supp with gusto. 1284 needs held or it breaks down. if 1 more pop that stalls/rejected around 1291.50-1292.50 a sell

(Jul 29-10:16) mike: back in 15 minutes or so

(Jul 29-10:41) mike: the ES needs to say over 1386.50 to avoid a reversal. The stall at 1290 could be a heads up for another drop

(Jul 29-10:45) mike: a bounce will be sold now, watch 1288.50 area -that will need clear and then push through 1290.50 area to avoid a pullback, from up here

(Jul 29-10:50) mike: they pullback to 1285.75, support before the drop down to 1278 major area. The pullbacks should be bought, and 1295 should be in the cards.

(Jul 29-10:59) mike: 1293.75-1293.00 needs to hold here

(Jul 29-11:02) mike: the 60. EMA on the five-minute chart is at 1297 and that's in yesterday's closing range. To keep this going, need to push right through that and hold it on a dip. I doubt that happens, this needs a breather first. if 93.75 breaks here in a high should be in for a bit

(Jul 29-11:05) mike: small support at 92.50-92.00. A 123 type top is possible on a test of the high

(Jul 29-11:08) mike: if no turn from 1298, then 1302 area could be in the cards

(Jul 29-11:15) mike: 1302 area is still possible but the ES piece to stay over 1296 now you have a chance to move higher

(Jul 29-11:19) mike: the micro support held, this can get to 1302 area but the way the market has been acting, I would expect some pullback over for lunch time trading, and then see if this upside and continue.

(Jul 29-11:22) mike: they need to stay over 1298 now, or this move begins to lose its luster, and a pullback is coming

(Jul 29-11:26) mike: 98.75 held, but the upside is out of steam, 1297. His key to stay over on this pullback

(Jul 29-11:39) mike: 1295 was kind of key earlier, a rate under that to get the ES down to 1292.50-1291.75 area, and that's as far as a pullback can go without doing some damage to this uptrend. If they bounce you here to test 1300, we're just a bit lower, it would set up a selling opportunity

(Jul 29-12:04) mike: the market has run out of steam, and as long as it stays under 1297 area is back in trouble, and could see 1289.50 area, if that 1291.75 level is not held

(Jul 29-12:14) mike: looking for a drop down to 1290.50-1289.50 as a key area to hold. That was early high, and when broken the move up to 1300 followed. If that doesn't hold them the 1285would be next

(Jul 29-12:18) mike: they reached 1291.75 area and bounced a bit. The 1290 is still key to hold. on the top side, a move over 1295 is needed to take some pressure off. If cleared, then 1297 is the key level above. I need to be away for about 20 minutes or so. I'll update then.

(Jul 29-12:43) mike: 1290.50 was reached and held, that was the high area about an hour into the day, shorts got squeezed when that was exceeded. That looks like a "line in the sand" for support on a pullback. The market made a nice come back, and it is doing its normal , of late, lunchtime rehearsal. That makes that area even more important now. As long as it's held, and then 1294 is pushed through and held, the market can make a move back up to 1297-1298 or so on this move before another turned down. getting over 1294 and holding is a must

(Jul 29-12:53) mike: 1294 was not cleared/held, but instead it was reversed/rejected. They drop back down to test the 1290.50 area, and a break will open the door to go to the 1288 level, and maybe lower before some kind of turn occurs. Again, only of 1290.50 is broken, as we are in a range at the moment

(Jul 29-13:14) mike: another pop up here towards 1292.50-1293 .00 that fails should be a sell

(Jul 29-13:26) mike: 93 reached, a pullback to 91.50 now it's needed to hold

(Jul 29-13:30) mike: if you took a short position at the 92.50-93.00 area, it's just a scalp, 91.50-91.25 area is the exit area, at least for part, with a stop at breakeven or 1293

(Jul 29-13:39) mike: they went down to 1291 before reversing back up. Look to buy the next pullback as long as the 1292 area is held now the market should be okay for a test 1294-1295 easily

(Jul 29-13:51) mike: this has to hold up over the 1294.00-1293.50 area now. A reversal or round 1296 or just above here is possible still, as this can still be a two-way trade with another downdraft in the cards

(Jul 29-14:03) mike: the 1293.50 is now going to be key this afternoon, a transition area is broken.

(Jul 29-14:10) mike: 1297.00 could be a bounce high, if 1296.50 is broken, then it probably will be. If it's not then we should push up to test 1300 again, the 1302 area is still key resistance

(Jul 29-14:20) mike: they should've been able to bounce right off of 1293.50, and it didn't happen, the market is back to bearish mode here. The next bounce should be sold, old 97 area should be a strong resistance area the rest of the afternoon

(Jul 29-14:52) mike: 97 area is key and the bounce up to 96.25 was sold, right back down to the 93.50 area. A break of that, and then 1292, could open the door for a move back towards the 1288 level. If 1292 holds, then one more push back towards 1297 as possible

(Jul 29-15:14) mike: it's been a long week, with a bunch of volatility of intraday and on some of the open's. The ES has been in a channel, it breaks on the downside if 1292 is broken and not quickly reversed, it takes out the upside only if they get over that 1297 resistance. I wouldn't expect this to go out with a good rally end of day, it would be a surprise

(Jul 29-15:14) mike: anyhow, hope you had a good week. Have a nice weekend, I'll see you here ready to roll on Monday morning

 

 

Thursday  July 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jul 28, 2011 9:23:07 AM EST
mike: the 98-97 area bought pre open, the rally to 1305.00-1305.50 initial resist rejected, those both key early. i'll be in and out of office first 45 min, more updates near 10:20am or so

Jul 28, 2011 9:59:30 AM EST
mike: home sales data

Jul 28, 2011 10:01:06 AM EST
mike: 1305 needs cleared / held. 1301.50 key s

Jul 28, 2011 10:01:18 AM EST
mike: back in 20 min

Jul 28, 2011 10:30:56 AM EST
mike: it looks like 1304 needs to hold, or they will reverse. That should be pivotal now

Jul 28, 2011 10:48:28 AM EST
mike: the ES went just under 1304 and turned back up. A double top possible here, 1305.50 start a turn down

Jul 28, 2011 10:55:55 AM EST
mike: surprise that they didn't roll over, the stronger NQ lead the way up since taking out yesterday's low in the early going and turning back up the move is losing steam right under the high, but now. It needs to stay over 2378, 2374 at the worst. The ES needs to hold a 1305.00-1304.00 area.

Jul 28, 2011 10:57:50 AM EST
mike: look to sell a bounce here under 1307.50, stop just above that, it's a double top so far

Jul 28, 2011 11:00:41 AM EST
mike: hold off on this, ES is still okay as long as 1305.50 is held, if that breaks many bounce after should be sold

Jul 28, 2011 11:10:57 AM EST
mike: we have a good oversold bounce going, the good resistance is just above that the 1311-1312 area. The next pullback needs to hold that 1307.50 area to keep this trend of move in gear

Jul 28, 2011 11:16:36 AM EST
mike: and held at 1308.00, so still have a zone at 1308.00-1307.50 area for a key support on a pullback. Watch for a pullback from around 1310.50-1311.00, probably at the most, if this is going to have a decent pullback today

Jul 28, 2011 11:26:10 AM EST
mike: Key resistance reached, a pullback here needs to hold 1309.50. If the 1311.50 resistance is pushed through, then we could possibly get to 1315 area

Jul 28, 2011 11:36:17 AM EST
mike: scalp shorts against the high, down to 1310 area or lower

Jul 28, 2011 11:38:28 AM EST
mike: we have 60. EMA on the five-minute chart at 12.50, the move has stalled out a little bit, if they get over 1312.50 then we could still see 1315 area but doubt that would hold. Need a break under 1311 here soon

Jul 28, 2011 11:42:37 AM EST
mike: that didn't work.

Jul 28, 2011 11:43:23 AM EST
mike: we could have a double top here, but the slow grinding type moves are not easy to reverse

Jul 28, 2011 11:43:56 AM EST
mike: still need a break under 1311 to stick to change this trend

Jul 28, 2011 11:48:54 AM EST
mike: well, it looks like they did double top. Sell against 1312.50.if 1311 t area breaks. Pullbacks have been just 1.50 points on the way out, so 1311 needs broken. also, my error on that being the 60 EMA on the five-minute chart, I was looking at a different chart

Jul 28, 2011 12:04:30 AM EST
mike: 1313 is a good resistance, only if broken and not quickly reverse in the ES go to 1315. It will probably get more choppy here over a lunch time action and on the downside the 1310.50 is the key support that needs to be reversed on a test.

Jul 28, 2011 12:11:51 AM EST
mike: 123 top, 1250 was soundly rejected

Jul 28, 2011 12:12:18 AM EST
mike: houses are now shorting opportunities under 1312.50

Jul 28, 2011 12:20:41 AM EST
mike: watch 1308-1307.50, need a reversal there where the market is back in trouble and the trend down could continue to 1304-1303 area at least

Jul 28, 2011 12:21:39 AM EST
mike: even a decent bounce now will see a shorting opportunity, longs strapped above 1311

Jul 28, 2011 12:30:10 AM EST
mike: market is pretty weak if it can't get to 1311, even if it does I think that area will be sold. Basically the band between 1310.50 to 1311.50 is that good resistance. 1312.50 was sold fast

Jul 28, 2011 12:38:17 AM EST
mike: the 1309.50-1310 area is a short, with a tight stop. They won't go over 1311 50 pressure is going to be put on

Jul 28, 2011 12:43:09 AM EST
mike: 1307.50 was an early high, and turned into a pivotal area on the way up. Once it was broken/held it open that door for the run up to the high. It has to hold here, or I think the 1304 area is in the cards next

Jul 28, 2011 12:57:22 AM EST
mike: good buying around 1307. A pullback to 1308.50-1308.00 (at lowest) should hold if we're going to push higher. A move to 1311 area should then be sold into,but the 1308 level needs to hold

Jul 28, 2011 13:03:53 PM EST
mike: 1308 held so far, its key now

Jul 28, 2011 13:05:40 PM EST
mike: I'm not crazy about being along here, would rather sell a bounce, highs should be in for the afternoon, at least it looks like that right now

Jul 28, 2011 13:19:23 PM EST
mike: the top of this afternoon channel is 1310, that should be used as resistance to sell against and 1307 is now key support, needs to hold to avoid going to 1304 area

Jul 28, 2011 13:23:22 PM EST
mike: 1308.50 is now resistance, they shouldn't bounce further than that intended to 1304 area

Jul 28, 2011 13:33:12 PM EST
mike: the ES reached 1308.50 while the NQ barely budged. this is a down sloping channel and the ES needs to get back over 1309.50-1310.00 for this to get a breakout to the upside. A break and hold under the 1307 level will put pressure on, otherwise they stay inside this channel, or break to the downside towards the 1304 area

Jul 28, 2011 13:44:58 PM EST
mike: they worked their way back up to the 1310 area and turn right down. They drop to the 1307 now live need to turn right back up

Jul 28, 2011 13:51:20 PM EST
mike: a feeble bounce off of 1307.50...look for a short on a bounce to test the 1309.50-1310.25 area now as it looks like this will continue

Jul 28, 2011 13:52:40 PM EST
mike: hold off on that, more crap from Washington coming out

Jul 28, 2011 13:55:48 PM EST
mike: well drat. If they get back up there to 1309.50-1310.00 area, expect more selling

Jul 28, 2011 13:58:01 PM EST
mike: 2393-2395 area on the NQ is resistance there. To get a breakout on the upside, which looks doubtful today, need to see the NQ breakout along with ES

Jul 28, 2011 14:04:16 PM EST
mike: the sideways action has been winding the market tight since 12:20 PM, the NASDAQ could leave it lower here

Jul 28, 2011 14:07:09 PM EST
mike: just be selling the market on a bounce if not short, a move back up to 1308 should be sold

Jul 28, 2011 14:09:03 PM EST
mike: 1306.50 was a low of this range, have broken and not reversed right away then we will be headed towards 1304 or lower

Jul 28, 2011 14:12:19 PM EST
mike: 1304 reached, a bounce back to 1307 area should be sold now. If this keeps pushing through 1304, then it's down to 1298 area once again or maybe a bit lower

Jul 28, 2011 14:25:07 PM EST
mike: a bearish pattern under 1306.50, 1304 should be tested or broken

Jul 28, 2011 14:27:57 PM EST
mike: we could go back down to 1298, so don't be eager to buy this. Need to get over 1306.50-1307.50 area now just to change the trend

Jul 28, 2011 14:52:35 PM EST
mike: the ES needs to get back over 1307 to attempt to get out of trouble. I think the 1304 level needs to hold now on a pullback if we are going to get a bounce back that can take out that area, or at least test

Jul 28, 2011 15:00:16 PM EST
mike: a bounce off of 1304.00, but without any gusto. Don't trust this

Jul 28, 2011 15:11:03 PM EST
mike: I'm not sure what to expect in the last hour, the 1302 is a decent support, but no gusto on the bounce. 1298 with the next. Stay with the sell side unless 1306.50-1307 has cleared

Jul 28, 2011 15:15:18 PM EST
mike: pressure on under 1304 the way it looks, don't know why this market should be bid up the way it has acted after making the high.. If 1304 is cleared, there is resistance just above, so I doubt there is a big run up into the close, but a nosedive not impossible

Jul 28, 2011 15:20:48 PM EST
mike: they need to get back over 1303 to take some pressure off. Otherwise we could still see 1298

Jul 28, 2011 15:32:04 PM EST
mike: a 1298 was tested with 30 minutes left, they may as well go down to 1295 to reach the overnight low if no turn here, trend resistance at 1300.50-1301.50 some

Jul 28, 2011 15:35:40 PM EST
mike: 1295 area and then 1293.00-1292.00 area next. 1300 is resistance. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Wednesday July 27, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 27-09:55) mike: i will be away until around noon or bit after, 1313-1312 key this morn, 23 on top

(Jul 27-12:35) mike: the market is still a sell on bounces under 1313, that needs clearing and held on a dip to take pressure off

(Jul 27-12:40) mike: 1310 was just reversed for the third time since noon, a push under that that doesn't reverse right away again should put more pressure on, 1308 would be next

(Jul 27-12:48) mike: 1312.50-1313.00 area is resistance, a pullback to 1311.25 needs to hold to get something going on the upside. I didn't see the early action in person, I just see the charts, it looks like a bounces going to have a hard time holding today.

(Jul 27-13:01) mike: shouldn't reverse so easy this time, need to get over 1311 and all

(Jul 27-13:05) mike: pressure is still on unless 1311 is cleared

(Jul 27-13:11) mike: expect the next pullback to be bought. A trade on the long side sets up if they go under 1309.50 and turn back up. It would be a scalp, as the 1312.50-1313.00 area is still key resistance to get over and hold

(Jul 27-13:16) mike: no reversal, let's not take that even if they do reverse, I want to see some strength before buying

(Jul 27-13:19) mike: buffet get back to 1311.50-1312.50, that will be the key area for another turn down today if they get there again. In order to get out of trouble, and show some strength, that 1311.50-1312.50 area will need cleared, and then see 1311.50 or so turn into support on a pullback. Otherwise this looks like it will stay in trend down mode a bit longer

(Jul 27-13:38) mike: ES needs to push over 1310, and then more especially 1311.25 and hold above that. Otherwise it stays in trouble. The NQ is leading the way now.

(Jul 27-13:42) mike: we should have a low in place now, 1309.50 is a support to hold our pullback

(Jul 27-13:52) mike: 1310.00-1309.50 area needs held here, and get a push over the 1312.50 area in order to get the market out of trouble. Should reverse from that area unless something is really wrong with the market

(Jul 27-14:02) mike: they are trying to hold the support, but cannot get anything going to get over the next area at 1312.50 which is key. We may undergo another washout later today or early tomorrow before this selloff finds a decent low, down around 1303-1302 is possible. So, let's stay away from Long's unless they get down to that area, or can prove themselves strong by breaking/holding resistance

(Jul 27-14:26) mike: 1311.00-1311.50 area is now resistance to get through, and hold, late day. Still don't think this is over with, if they break 1308.00-1307.50 area they will need to reverse fast, or a test of the 1303 area still likely be for a turnaround can occur, possibly lower

(Jul 27-14:35) mike: 1308.75-1309.50 so it is now resistance, bounce. If they pushed down to 1303.00-1302.00 and reverse up, then a scalp on the long side

(Jul 27-14:36) mike: 1303 met, I'm not going to be a hero and try to buy this thing. He bounce back to 1306 area should be good resistance

(Jul 27-14:53) mike: 1306 needs cleared to get some shorts covering or bring in some buying. Could rollover again, if that's not cleared and held

(Jul 27-15:14) mike: it has been a gap day/trend day. The high was made in the first five minutes of stock trading, the low could be made at the 4 PM close for stocks. Keep an eye on the NASDAQ, it has been leading. They reached the 1303-1302.50 area that was the target, the next area is 1298-1297 if this continues today or into tomorrow morning. A move over 1306 now needed to break the down side symmetry

(Jul 27-15:26) mike: they dipped just under 1300 and reversed up. If they aren't going to drop into 4 PM, that should be a low area, not much more if broken, 1298-1297 area should be good support

(Jul 27-15:39) mike: watch the 1302 area for support here late day, it needs to hold to avoid a test of the low. 1309 area is a cluster of resistance is above here end of day. Hope you had a good trading day, I'll see you here in the morning

(Jul 27-15:50) mike: looks like a 4 PM low after all. Take care

 

 

Tuesday July 26, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jul 26, 2011 9:22 mike: no change early from last nights update. the 1327 supp overnight low, 1337.50 rejected too. the high 1339.75, doesn't like 1340 yet. econ data 10am

Jul 26, 2011 9:35 mike: 34.50 r

Jul 26, 2011 9:36 mike: 1328.00-1327.50 supp

Jul 26, 2011 9:37 mike: but 34.00-4.50 the key to get over / hold after 10am

Jul 26, 2011 9:46 mike: 1328.00-1327.50 break leads to 1323 area or so, 33.00-33.50 now resist

Jul 26, 2011 9:51 mike: 31 resist, then 33.00, then 34.50... its sell bounce morn

Jul 26, 2011 9:58 mike: 29 area small resist... 26.00 and 12500 on dow cash is supp that must hold now.

Jul 26, 2011 10:03 mike: 1330.50-1331.00 needs cleared, held on dip now , test of low must hold

Jul 26, 2011 10:07 mike: bounce failed just under 30. its key now. a drop to 23.00-22.50 area still possible before a decent bounce try

Jul 26, 2011 10:16 mike: the 12500 on dow cash trying to be defended, but still need a push over 1330.50-1331.00 area on this bounce and hold that. if not, another test of low occurs

Jul 26, 2011 10:45 mike: the ES made it to the 1330.50-1331.00 zone, a pullback from here needs to stay over 1328.50-1328.00 it appears in order to avoid another drop down.

Jul 26, 2011 10:47 mike: 1333 area is next resistance, but need to stay over 1329.50 now

Jul 26, 2011 10:55 mike: so far the 1331 level only exceeded by one tick. Market is vulnerable still, especially on a break of 1329.50

Jul 26, 2011 11:04 mike: the dip turned up from 1329.00, which is a small "last trapped" from 10:17 AM until 10:38 AM. That should hold now if the market is going to try for a hold over the 1331 level , which is needed to avoid more trouble this morning

Jul 26, 2011 11:08 mike: the 1331 area should now act as support on a pullback to the upside is going to continue. 1333 is the next resistance above

Jul 26, 2011 11:19 mike: the move is losing gas at 1333 resistance, now the 1331.50-1331.00 area is key to stay over to avoid a change in trend back to the downside

Jul 26, 2011 11:26 mike: 31.50 was bought, that needs to hold still to have a chance to push over 1333 and keep the uptrend intact. If that breaks, then we are in for another pullback, likely back towards 1330.50 or so

Jul 26, 2011 11:39 mike: 1330.50 reached, but the market still vulnerable unless 1333 is clear

Jul 26, 2011 11:57 mike: a bounce to 31 area that stalls should be sold. Tempting to buy a pullback, but feel that this is a bounce that is not going to stick, and instead the downside could get some momentum for 29 area breaks

Jul 26, 2011 12:11 mike: the bounce was sold right at 1331.00. That's key to get over, and hold that on a dip. Market has another leg down unless that happens pretty soon

Jul 26, 2011 12:17 mike: 31 was cut through pretty easily, that is support now on a dip. The 1333 area is still a key area of resistance on the upside

Jul 26, 2011 12:28 mike: shorting a stall here

Jul 26, 2011 12:29 mike: 31.50 the key below, if not defended then we can go to 1329 area if market gets some momentum

Jul 26, 2011 12:46 mike: the first pullback from just under 1333 gave a pullback to 1329.75. The bounce back to that 1332.75 level/test stall out at a small pullback to 1331.25 occurred a few minutes ago. This is the third time up here, should be key still. They need to get over this 1333 and hold, not reverse back down, to attempt 1337 or thereabouts, 1335.50 first, but 1332.75 is still key resistance to sell against in my book

Jul 26, 2011 13:06 mike: 1332 was rejected, and the NQ also looks like a double top. More reason to sell strength against the 1332.50-1333 zone

Jul 26, 2011 13:17 mike: that kind of slow down after the quick reversals on bounces. A move back down to 1325.50 is still possible

Jul 26, 2011 13:18 mike: as long as 1333 is not exceeded today, this is set up to go back and test this morning lows, if not this afternoon then tomorrow

Jul 26, 2011 13:38 mike: staying under 1331 should keep pressure on. If that exceeded then we could see one more try at 1332.75 level, doubts that will occur but if so it will be a key area end of day

(Jul 26-13:47) mike: a push under 1329 should give this a move towards 1326.25-1325.50zone, that area should be bought or something is wrong with this market as things are changing

(Jul 26-13:50) mike: they bounced right off of 1329 instead here, if they test that can hold, it could be a quick trade on the long side

(Jul 26-14:01) mike: this market is a real snoozer today. There were a couple setups off of the 1332.750 level (using 1333 resistance) but just say 3.75 point range off the high. We shouldn't have a low made at 1329 for a bit, but if that is broken then there's still one more move down towards 1326.00-1325.50. On this bounce in 1330 can hold, a chance to get back to test the highs as possible. If you don't see a good set up, then pass, tomorrow should be better. Just a possibility of a late day move the way this is acting

(Jul 26-14:06) mike: one of the best bounces since the morning. right up to 1332.50, just under the high, now a pullback needs to hold 1331 and turn right back up to keep this going and avoid another reversal

(Jul 26-14:13) mike: we can make a higher high
(Jul 26-14:13) mike: just did, the ES needs to stay over 1332 now

(Jul 26-14:14) mike: there is a chance they can go for 1337 but should fail if they reach that area --

(Jul 26-14:15) mike: 34.50 was resistance pretty open, could pull back from there

(Jul 26-14:26) mike: this pullback needs to stay above 1333.00-1332.50, or it will be a fake out top, and a bounce that follows set would set up a short

(Jul 26-14:30) mike: 33.25 pullbacks low so far. We'll see what happens here late, I'll really be surprised if they hold this together up here and close over the 1332.50 area, but if they did it will be short-term bullish. 1332.50 is not held, or quickly reverse back up and broken, then 30.50 area or lower will be back in the cards

(Jul 26-14:36) mike: 33.00 held, a 123 top possible here, 33 area is most told now, pivotal area

(Jul 26-14:39) mike: 123 top, sell against 1335, 1333.75 was the traitor

(Jul 26-14:45) mike: 32.000-31.50 is support on this pullback, a cluster of numbers there, needs held or market gets hit harder with selling end of the day, if it's reversed then a bounce back possible end of day

(Jul 26-14:48) mike: sure looks like a high in place, sure was enough eager sellers up there, and a 123 top is a sign of rejection. Even if this support holds and they bounce back to test the highs, that should be sold.

(Jul 26-14:50) mike: I need to leave early today. Good luck in the last hour. Have a great rest of the day, I'll see you here in the morning
 

 

 

Friday July 22, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jul 22, 2011 9:21 mike: the 1348.00-1348.50 2nd resist zone was tested overnight, and rejected, its strong resist and shouldnt be cleared/ held, VIX on 2 sell sigs, and a drop by it that reversed up is bearish.. the 1339 gave a bounce. 39 needs held per last night's update. don't expect a rally to stick.

Jul 22, 2011 9:34 mike: 39.00-38.50 bounce, will fail. watch NQ for reversal to turn it down.

Jul 22, 2011 9:44 mike: going lower,

Jul 22, 2011 9:45 mike: 42 needs cleared/ held to try a breakout

Jul 22, 2011 9:51 mike: keep puts or proxies bought yesterday with ES at 1342. should see 1332-1331 area . only a break/ hold over 1342 gets pressure off

Jul 22, 2011 9:53 mike: NQ topped, a divergence with ES, pressure from that

Jul 22, 2011 10:00 mike: 35.00 a small supp, if cut thru we see 1332.50-1331.50 the key area. 38.50-39.00 r now

Jul 22, 2011 10:05 mike: a 6.75 point pullback off 1341.75 early high. 38.50-39.00 resist now

Jul 22, 2011 10:08 mike: 38.25 was sold on bounce, 36.50 small supp now, needs held

Jul 22, 2011 10:15 mike: 38.50-39.00 still key above -- 1342-1343 area a big resist. if 1335 is broken, then 1332.50-1331.50 gets tested.

Jul 22, 2011 10:19 mike: stay with shorts to 32-31 at least. , bounces will fail

Jul 22, 2011 10:28 mike: 1332.50-1331.50 tested, 35.50-36.50 resist it looks now.

Jul 22, 2011 10:30 mike: need to be away 20 minutes. so be right back

Jul 22, 2011 10:57 mike: the ES bounced back up to the 1338 resistance and turn back down. They will need to hold this 1335.50 area, and then push up through the 1338.50 level and hold To attempt to get out of trouble here

Jul 22, 2011 11:02 mike: need to stay over 37.50, no further

Jul 22, 2011 11:05 mike: 1338 held, but this is losing momentum, pullback likely, 1341-1342 area is still key resistance

Jul 22, 2011 11:11 mike: a break through 1337 would start a turn back down, 1338.50-1339.00 zone is still resistance. If exceeded, then could see 1341-1343., Should go back towards 1336 or lower if they fail up here again, and then break 1337.

Jul 22, 2011 11:19 mike: they run them up, then right back down. Still, this grind higher can continue as long as the 38.00-37.50 area holds , at the deepest here, otherwise it starts to roll over

Jul 22, 2011 11:27 mike: they all rolled over now, NQ especially (with resistance that 2410) and should lead the way. A break of 1337 should put the ES under pressure

Jul 22, 2011 11:42 mike: look for a pullback to 1338.25 area for a bounce back up, otherwise they can't test 1337 which is now key support

Jul 22, 2011 11:44 mike: if they hold that area, so far has, then the 41 area and the cards here

Jul 22, 2011 11:44 mike: a little late on that, 39 should hold a support now again

Jul 22, 2011 11:57 mike: 39.00 was bought, it needs pushed through 1341 needed soon here, and the NQ needs to push through the 2412 area to get going and try for 1342-1343

Jul 22, 2011 11:59 mike: we had a low made in the first hour, and then grind higher into the lunch time trading. A pullback from up here would not be unexpected. It looks like 1339 still holds the key

Jul 22, 2011 12:03 mike: should be a bounce high in place. If there is one more test of the 1340-1341 area that gets turned back, get short for a pullback towards the 1337 area

Jul 22, 2011 12:06 mike: I need to be away for a bit, about 10 minutes. I think I read this wrong, the market will avoid trouble unless the 1338.50 level breaks, and 2410.50 on the NASDAQ

Jul 22, 2011 12:23 mike: okay, it looks like the 1342.50-1343.00 area is going to be hard to push through. Risk on the long side going up. The 1340.50 level is the key support, a breakup that and around 2415 on the NQ. Must stay over those, or a trend change is starting, at least on a small basis

Jul 22, 2011 12:25 mike: NQ is acting toppy, rejected 2416 two times with good offers

Jul 22, 2011 12:29 mike: 1341.50 area on the ES is the same S. 2416 area on NQ. 1339 is a pivotis --it was resistance after broken, and then it turned into support again after it was taken out to the upside.there is also moving average support there also. That is a key area this afternoon below us. The 1342.50-1343.50 area is the key resistance that needs pushed through

Jul 22, 2011 12:57 mike: the ES has traded in a 2.75 point range, made on the 12: 10 PM-12:15 p.m. bars and has gone nowhere since. The NQ is on a tear on the upside. I guess nothing bad is going to happen as long as that stays strong, watching the 2417 level as trend support/break level there

Jul 22, 2011 13:08 mike: 2424.75-2426.00 area, actually 2424 is a key number, was turned away

Jul 22, 2011 13:10 mike: 1343.00-1343.75 on the ES was just messed. Those are the key resistance areas above. I think that those should be selling areas, to be bought again after a decent pullback occurs. We will see how the 1339 area holds, if the 1341 level gets pushed through to change this upside grind higher

Jul 22, 2011 13:29 mike: the market had a good grind higher off the low in the first hour, but it has been spinning its wheels up here for quite some time---just under the key resistance on both the ES and the NQ. It still takes a break under 2418 on NQ and 1340 now on the ES, to turn this down for a bit

Jul 22, 2011 13:42 mike: instead of taking profits this morning, I still have the puts bought when the ES was at 1342 yesterday. Right of love in this area. They haven't even given a good attempt to push through that high for an hour and a half. If they do push through, then a move up to the 1348 area is key on the upside. that should be a problem, but if not a surprise move up to the 1354 area could occur , but if that were to happen today or Monday I'm sure it would be a top of some sort.

Jul 22, 2011 13:49 mike: okay, be short stop over or at 1342.50, or just above. That shouldn't be exceeded if this is going to roll over this afternoon from resistance

Jul 22, 2011 13:53 mike: it's the NQ that is holding the ES up, but it is stuck at a resistance so this could still roll over here

Jul 22, 2011 14:02 mike: the ES is up to the top of the afternoon range, 1341.25 holds on a little pullback and turns up, then a pop up from there as possible. The ES has gone sideways, while the NQ continues to push higher so something has to give up here pretty soon

Jul 22, 2011 14:05 mike: okay, a high should be in now

Jul 22, 2011 14:07 mike: will be adding to the put position either end of day (if enough VIX sell signals or on Monday.

Jul 22, 2011 14:39 mike: a long and boring day, it looks like the NQ needs to break and hold under 2427 area, and the ES break 1340 in order to turn down. The ES has gone sideways all day, while the NQ has gone straight up. The divergence should get straightened out late today or Monday

Jul 22, 2011 15:00 mike: if the ES can get over 1342 and stick, then a late run up to 1348 could be in the cards. They will need to break 1340.50 in order to roll over, so not in danger at the moment

Jul 22, 2011 15:15 mike: that should be the end of a bounce

Jul 22, 2011 15:20 mike: I'm going to log out here. I still think that the market is set up for a pullback/selloff coming likely on Monday now. Have a good rest of the day, and a great weekend.

 

 

Thursday July 21, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jul 21, 2011 9:21 mike: european crisis fix surpise ran mkt up, 1331.50-1332.50 a key area, should be a early high. if not 1335.50-1336.25 zone.. doubt that early. below, 1328.50 area small, 1326.75 gap fill is supp 1, 1323 area supp 2.

Jul 21, 2011 9:24 mike: 2395 on NQ good resist too, a high near there possible.

Jul 21, 2011 9:27 mike: also we get more econ data at 10am. a decent drop gets bought , but should pull back 31.50-32.50

Jul 21, 2011 9:35 mike: NQ good short on a bounce, buyers backing off in front of econ data. 26.75 s1

Jul 21, 2011 9:37 mike: s1 met, 28 now resist.

Jul 21, 2011 9:47 mike: 28.50-28.00 is pivot this morn, now supp ,

Jul 21, 2011 9:53 mike: mkt should be volatile, econ data soon, 32-31 area supp now , 28 area still pivotal on a drop. 38-39 area next resist if gunned higher from here

Jul 21, 2011 9:55 mike: 1335.50-1336.25 resist key now

Jul 21, 2011 9:58 mike: 32.50-31.50 key to stay over

Jul 21, 2011 10:04 mike: 32.50 held and shot to higher high. it has to stay over 32.50-32.00 on a dip to keep uptrend and not get toppy. 1338-1339 a strong resist to break / hold , or get that pullback

Jul 21, 2011 10:13 mike: 1 minute trend guide per ebook held on way up, at 1336.50, the 1338-1339 area can be exceeded if that holds

Jul 21, 2011 10:14 mike: 37.00-36.50 must hold or it gets toppy, 32 area a big supp now

Jul 21, 2011 10:21 mike: 37.00 held test 1, key area off 39.00 high at resist

Jul 21, 2011 10:31 mike: 39.50-38.50 needs held now

Jul 21, 2011 10:35 mike: only tiny pullback so far. 1339.50 is a dent in momentum, that 1337 level that was new supp is now the key area on a pullback. and around 12700 on Dow CASH

Jul 21, 2011 10:42 mike: 37.00-36.50 can get tested if 39.50 not defended here

Jul 21, 2011 10:50 mike: a hold so far, but losing steam. key to hold here, or 37.00-36.50 test, strong/ pivotal zone . i'll be back here in about 15-20 minutes

(Jul 21-11:06) mike: the market loss its gas, and now rollover. 37 is the key area to hold. 39.50 now resistance to get back over

(Jul 21-11:16) mike: a 3.50 point pullback is about as far as this should go to keep the trend up action going.. Otherwise done to the 37 area to see if the market still has a good bid on the deeper drop. 39.50 was rejected so a decent move lower could be in the cards here

(Jul 21-11:25) mike: they reach 37.25 to pullback off of the 39.50 rejection, this area here between 37.00-36.25 needs to be turned up quickly, or we could head back to 1332 area

(Jul 21-11:31) mike: the NQ is taking this downside a bit harder, keep an eye on that as it should lead. It has resistance now around 2405. The ES has resistance at 1338 area

(Jul 21-11:53) mike: there is a cluster of support at the 1332. Area so if there is another push down to that area, a balance should occur. They need to get back over the 1337 area to get back into an up trend,, or attempt to anyhow. The NQ still leading the way

(Jul 21-12:00) mike: F. 35.50 can hold here, we can get a pop-up works 38 area

(Jul 21-12:19) mike: still think we can see the 1332 area, especially if the 34 area goes here in the next few minutes

(Jul 21-12:33) mike: things have slowed down here over lunch time, 34.50 area has been tested twice and was bid up a bit, so that meets to hold here. If this gets up to 37.50-38.00 area and stalls, then another pullback to test that area to see how things are going to shape up this afternoon

(Jul 21-12:41) mike: the market caught another good bid, a pullback to the 38.00-37.50 area should hold

(Jul 21-12:46) mike: that debt deal is supposedly close to a resolution, thus the run-up. A pullback now needs to stay above the 39 area, at the very worst, to keep from making a little top up here

(Jul 21-12:51) mike: this is a very fluid situation in Washington, careful not to get run over. I stated earlier that this would be a volatile day, the 1335 area is major now I must hold

(Jul 21-12:51) mike: a bounce up to 1341 should be sold

(Jul 21-13:01) mike: I tested 41 but need to break 39.50 now to get a little shakeout to the downside.

(Jul 21-13:23) mike: there's still a good bid on the dips, so unless 1339.50 is broken there soon, upside stays intact. If they pop up to -1344, then reverse, that would set up a short, but so far the better trades are buying dips, we'll see how that is later

(Jul 21-13:30) mike: if this holds up into later in the day, should by some puts, a scale in. Indicators are giving very overbought, and close to some VIX signals (more then just one). Right now the ES needs to stay over 1341, or a break lower occurs.

(Jul 21-13:33) mike: rolling over, keep an eye on the NASA also. Could have a little double top

(Jul 21-13:34) mike: that's NASDAQ

(Jul 21-13:43) mike: scaling into some puts, also a play on the VIX could set up also. Those give some huge moves. With the VIX down more than 9% today, that's a nice move on a proxy

(Jul 21-13:46) mike: 1342 is good reason since now

(Jul 21-13:51) mike: this 3.50 point dip it's also at a moving average support,a bounce over 1341, that holds, needed to avoid trouble up here

(Jul 21-13:55) mike: 39.50 gave a bounce earlier, that's the cluster of support that needs to hold if there is going to be one more push higher

(Jul 21-13:56) mike: if that is broken, and not quickly reversed back up, then a move back towards 1337.75 area at the least could be in the works.

(Jul 21-14:08) mike: After the last update the ES shout up to 1343.50 on some news from Washington, and then the pullback held at the 1338 area. As long as 1339.50 holds, the market will avoid rolling over this afternoon. However, the market is getting very overbought and we are close to a number of sell signals on the VIX, so would urge caution on new longs up here. The market is more likely setting up for a decent pullback, rather than a breakout to higher highs.

(Jul 21-14:18) mike: could bounce here, must bounce here, but this move is long in the tooth, and looks like a potential top in the making as long as the 1342-1343 area is rejected once again on a bounce attempt

(Jul 21-14:34) mike: they have been bouncing, but not able to stick, since 1:30 PM Eastern. It's now 2:30 PM, we should get a move in this time frame, it looks like the market will avoid trouble if 1339 is not broken. The 1342-1343 area will need to be pushed through and held, not rejected again, to have this market look good enough to add another day to this rally.

(Jul 21-14:43) mike: it's starting to look like 1340.50 is pivotal in this area, needs to hold on this tax pullback to move higher. 1342-1343 should still be hard to get through and hold however.

(Jul 21-14:50) mike: 1342 area sold again. the next pullback should hold 1341 if there is going to be a push through the 1343.50 high of the day. If broken it can go right back out to 1339, that's key to avoid a break towards 1337 or lower

(Jul 21-14:58) mike: 1340.50 held,this is some strange action up here, but still acts like there are lots of offers above to help push the market down on bounces. The area around the highs, basically the 1343-1345 zone is a key area on the daily chart. Combine that with an overbought market, and a shift in this sentiment to the extremes, a market that's dangerous and could get hit hard on a break of some support.

(Jul 21-15:10) mike: 1342-1343 area has been sold on the pop-ups all afternoon, need a break of 1339 now to stick to turn this down. Pullbacks have held, but better now selling the 1342-1343 zone with a stop just above that

(Jul 21-15:24) mike: 1339 area still cluster of support, 1342-1343 still resistance. There could be a breakout/fake out so beware if there is a pop up over 1342.50, it could get sucked down. If 39 is broken, a quick turn up as possible also... but if not, then the ES should head to 1334.50 or so.

(Jul 21-15:32) mike: 30 minutes to go in the week, buyers still pulling bits at the 42 area, needs cleared to get a potential squeeze higher. Still favor a break, and 1339. Still key.

(Jul 21-15:36) mike: my error on 30 minutes left in the week. Tomorrow is Friday and the market is open. Stay with short side under 1342.50 now

(Jul 21-15:46) mike: back down to 1339... I'm calling it a day here, staying with some options(depending on any late stuff at the close), about one fourth of a position, and will see what tomorrow brings. Have a nice day

 

 

 

Wednesday July 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jul 20, 2011 9:24- mike: this gap up gets sold, 28.50 area resist, then 31 area ../ supp at 24, then 21-20 key.

Jul 20, 2011 9:24 - mike: Existing Home Sales at 10 am.

Jul 20, 2011 9:32 - mike: NQ should lead this today.

Jul 20, 2011 9:40 - mike: gap at 24.25 filled, 26 resist a sell under

Jul 20, 2011 9:41 - mike: NQ better sell, leader

Jul 20, 2011 9:42 - mike: 21-20 key to bounce from

Jul 20, 2011 9:49 - mike: 24.50 now key

Jul 20, 2011 9:53 - mike: 21-20 area met, housing data at 10am, 22.50 resist, then 24 area good resist ,

Jul 20, 2011 10:04 - mike: 22.50 was sold just before drop to 20.50 key supp area. had to be quick. that 20.50 sttill key this morn. the 24 area resist needs to hold. a 2 sided day

Jul 20, 2011 9:12 - mike: 24.25 resist sold, but 22.50 is pivotal supp on dip. if broken, 1320.50 low, dow cash 12550 area big areas to hold on drop. back in about 20 min

(Jul 20-10:51) mike: the ES poked just over the 1324 resistance, this pullback needs to hold around 21.50 at the lowest. me

(Jul 20-10:52) mike: look to sell the bounces, or look for a test of lower levels for trade on the long side.

(Jul 20-11:11) mike: that little pop up didn't stick, but need to stay over 1323.50 area, and the NASDAQ needs to keep moving higher.

(Jul 20-11:15) mike: a short with a tight stop. Kind of key here as today make or break area

(Jul 20-11:22) mike: The ES had a gap up open, and that strength was sold as the ES dropped from 1326.25 down to 1319.25 before bouncing. The bounce has stalled out just under 1325, and now needs to hold the 1322 area on a pullback here to avoid testing the low. If they get back there, the market should turn back up, or it will be topping out. If 1323.50 is held, then we could push on higher towards 1326 or so. It should be a two-sided day.

(Jul 20-11:29) mike: if you went short with a tight stop her earlier, look for 23.00-22.50 to cover at least part, that looks like good or key support. 1325 is still key on top

(Jul 20-11:42) mike: let 22.50 area was reversed, keeping this chop higher, then lower, going.

(Jul 20-11:49) mike: very toppy now, follow the NASDAQ sell bounces against 1325 on the ES

(Jul 20-12:02) mike: 1320.50 is a test of the low and also the second touch of the 60. EMA on the five-minute chart. That needs to hold, or some pressure could be on to press this back down towards 1318

(Jul 20-12:14) mike: buyers not going to give up it looks. As long as 1320.50 is held anyhow, a pushback over 22.50 needs to say up there, otherwise still in danger of a decent pullback

(Jul 20-12:16) mike: not much to say while this gyrates in a narrow range. Not unusual action after he trend day we had yesterday

(Jul 20-12:34) mike: Bears are now in control as long as 1322 not cleared

(Jul 20-12:45) mike: a drop-down towards 1316 area possible if this breaks here and get some momentum

(Jul 20-12:45) mike: need to stay under 1322 to keep pressure on, or take it out if there is to be a bounce back

(Jul 20-12:49) mike: it's a scalper market almost all day, pick your spots if you're going to trade this back and forth action. It's a hit and run type of day on trades

(Jul 20-13:12) mike: I need to push over 1323, and not break 1321.50, to keep this little grind higher going. Otherwise it could roll over again

(Jul 20-13:54) mike: this dryness continued, and as long as 1324.50 is held it can keep pushing higher

(Jul 20-13:56) mike: if they break 1324 area, then this balance might be over. Keep an eye on the NQ also, it looks like 2391-2390 area important there

(Jul 20-14:05) mike: watch for a potential double top, or reversal from 1327-1328 area is no double top, but instead a pop up that reverses from that area. Still, a break of 1324.50-1324.00 is needed to break this uptrend

(Jul 20-14:38) mike: double top, vulnerable here under 1326, more so if 1324.50 is broken

(Jul 20-14:49) mike: if he got short, take something off at 23, trail stop on the remainder

(Jul 20-14:51) mike: the 23 area was kind of pivotal on the way up, and is now on the way down. A bounce back to 1324.50 should be sold if the market is turning weak

(Jul 20-14:56) mike: a pop up to 1324 rejected, that is key here to get over and hold to avoid a trip back towards 1320

(Jul 20-15:09) mike: if you aren't going to roll over and close poorly today, then this bounce should not take out 1324.50 and hold, that should be rejected. However on the other side of the coin, if 23 can hold and they push over 24.50, then a decent close near the high could occur

(Jul 20-15:18) mike: we have had a narrow range day, with a with a double top around 1326 and a double bottom around 1320. and now 1323 is the middle of that, and should be pivotal here end of day. That looks to be the key to staying up here and trying to make another push higher tomorrow morning or into the close. only a late break of that 1323 level puts a damper on this day. Have a good rest of the day, I need to leave a bit early today. There will be an update tonight. And then I'll see you here in the morning .take care

 

 

Thursday July 14, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 14-09:57) mike: 22 area key here , 21 supp must hold

(Jul 14-10:07) mike: the ES a sell on a test of 22 area in reverse, 20.50 must hold or the 19-18 area

(Jul 14-10:14) mike: if you got short at 22, take cover on at least part here or at the 19-18 area, should be support their...

(Jul 14-10:15) mike: 21.75 is resistance that needs to be cleared it looks

(Jul 14-10:24) mike: 22.00-22.50 key resistance, and it's the 19-18 area on the downside that needs to hold

(Jul 14-10:34) mike: stay with the short side unless 1320 is exceeded/held

(Jul 14-10:41) mike: NASDAQfutures rejected the 2369-2370 zone from yesterday, and pulling the market down here

(Jul 14-10:43) mike: the 2350-2348 area there is very key it appears. that and 1315.need to hold or will go for a test of 1312 and maybe save in 1308.50 area

(Jul 14-10:49) mike: 19.50 resistance now

(Jul 14-10:52) mike: 17.50-18.25 area is trend down resistance, NASDAQ action horrible and ES should follow

(Jul 14-10:57) mike: 12.50-12.00 area, need a good reversal there... which is doubtful, we should see the 1308 area if this continues

(Jul 14-11:02) mike: 1313 held but needs to get back over 1315.50, and stick, to get a decent bounce going, it will fail

(Jul 14-11:09) mike: 16.50 should offer some resistance, but 18.50-19.50 the strong resistance on a bounce

(Jul 14-11:16) mike: a slinky pattern, a test of the low could give a a bounce attempt, if broken instead then 1308.50 is in the cards.

(Jul 14-11:24) mike: the bounces have no gusto, just a three-point blip up, then they stall in rollover. Unless this action changes, markets still is in trouble this morning. A push over 1316.50 is needed to break this at the moment, NASDAQ still leading the way

(Jul 14-11:31) mike: still need to move over 16.50 in order to take some pressure off. Bears and control still unless that occurs
(Jul 14-11:34) mike: we should still see 1308.50if this 12.50-12.00 zone goes

(Jul 14-11:42) mike: 14.00-14.50. Now resistance

(Jul 14-11:47) mike: the high was made an hour into trading. We had a good short entry at 1322, and after breaking the 19-18 support it has been trending down. A bounce of more than 3.50 points, or a move back over 1316 even better, needed to change the pace. The market stays bearish unless that occurs

(Jul 14-11:52) mike: 14.25 rejected, and the NASDAQ rolled over again, so the beat goes on for now

(Jul 14-11:53) mike: it's slowing down I'll be back in a bit

(Jul 14-12:03) mike: just small bounces of 2.75-3.50 points, had the most, since the downdraft started. Stay with shorts until that rhythm is broken, 1308.50 area still can be seen

(Jul 14-12:09) mike: Need a push over 1314.50, and not turn right back down... otherwise no change in what's going on in 1308 50 still in the cards. Keep and edyeon the NASDAQ as it has led the way down all morning

(Jul 14-12:12) mike: should take out 1310.50while it's down here, to keep from having an inside day on the ES

(Jul 14-12:19) mike: 1308.50 was not here. It doesn't look like it's over yet., but make sure to lock in some profit on your trades 1311. Now resistance, bounce

(Jul 14-12:21) mike: a bounce of 2.50-3.00 points is still a short, this could last into the afternoon so don't fight the trend, use bounces to short, 1305.50. Next support

(Jul 14-12:30) mike: 10.50-11.25 should not be exceeded now, NASDAQ looks wickedly ugly

(Jul 14-12:45) mike: acted like a low down there, they could turn down herefrom the 11 area, a cluster of resistance, but still bounce back if 1309.50 can hold

(Jul 14-12:48) mike: 1311.25 still looks like the key area to get over and hold now. Even if they bounce here. That's the key area now

(Jul 14-12:53) mike: there could be a short cover bounce after a test or break of the low, but expect a 2.50-3.50 point bounce thereafter to fail. It's done that all day

(Jul 14-12:58) mike: 1305.50-1305.00 support, but I still think we have a shot at 1298 before this is over with. Until proven otherwise, with a bounce back over the 1310 area now, stay short or use those bounces to reenter if scalping

(Jul 14-12:58) mike: I have talked a lot today. Maybe too much. Next update on something different occurs

(Jul 14-13:09) mike: the 1305.50-1305.00 area in a small bounce so far. That looks to be the only area in the way of getting down to the 1298 area. The ES needs to get over 1308.50 now and hold in order to put a dent in the down side

(Jul 14-13:23) mike: 1305 area is now resistance on this bounce

(Jul 14-13:28) mike: this is the best bounce since the downdraft began. 1308 area appears to be pivotal.

(Jul 14-13:35) mike: nice run-up, stopped at the 12.50 area which is the old key support. A low should be in place now, at least for a law. The 1308 area should be good support on a pullback if this bounce is for real

(Jul 14-13:38) mike: meant to say "at least for a while" 1308.25 pullback low so far, if that is not defended, then the 1305.75 area should be next

(Jul 14-13:56) mike: they just missed 1305.75. They need to say just above that, and Bush over 1308.75 with some gusto, otherwise the market is still vulnerable

(Jul 14-14:01) mike: I met "push".... 1308.75 is support now that must hold...sorry about the "typos"--I'm using voice software and here it doesn't come out the way I say it yet.

(Jul 14-14:07) mike: consider the 1311.75-1312.50 area as a major pivotal resistance. That needs to be cleared, then held on a pullback, to begin to dig out of this hole. Otherwise we could still go back to the 1298 area, breaking that 1305.75 level is needed first.

(Jul 14-14:21) mike: 1312 was sold, but over a town yet unless 1309 breaks. A rising wedge breaks there

(Jul 14-14:28) mike: 12 was sold in the break of 1309.50 broke the wedge, though 6.50-05 .75 needs to hold, or they can slide right down to 1302 area.

(Jul 14-14:29) mike: a bounce back to the 1310.25 area should be rejected

(Jul 14-14:35) mike: keep an eye on the NASDAQ still leads this around today. It has good resistance around 2334

(Jul 14-14:42) mike: I need to be away for a bit back in about 10 minutes

(Jul 14-14:55) mike: go 5.75 met, but it's a short under 1309.25 , the wedge break level

(Jul 14-14:56) mike: The market continued lower after the last update, grinding down to the 1302 level before reversing. The bounce back stopped at the 1312.00-1312.50 area. That will need to be cleared, and then held on a pullback to begin to dig out of this hole. If that is rejected again, then it dropped back towards the lows, or the 1298 area, could still be in the cards.

Reminder: there will not be an update tonight due to my son's All-Star game. The next update will be from the instant message room on Friday morning.

(Jul 14-15:15) mike: got a test of the low, need to get over 1306.50, then 1308.50 even more so. Otherwise, 1298 is still in the cards.

(Jul 14-15:16) mike: have a nice rest of the day. I'll see you here in the morning

 

 

Wednesday July 13, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 13-10:06) mike: 20 need held

(Jul 13-10:16) mike: they failed at 23 key area,after holding 1320 on that pullback., Another drop from here must hold 1320

(Jul 13-10:17) mike: careful with shorts unless 20 is broken, or higher levels stall/reverse for now

(Jul 13-10:26) mike: stalling at 24, need to stay over 22 area now

(Jul 13-10:30) mike: if 22 breaks and not quickly reversed here, then the 18.50 area with the next. The market still okay as long as it's held

(Jul 13-10:37) mike: 1326.50-1327.00 a key area.
(Jul 13-10:38) mike: 24.50 now needs to hold

(Jul 13-10:53) mike: it looks like they ran out of gas at resistance, a drop down towards the 24 area will need to hold, watch the NASDAQ, needs to stay over 2370. also. If they push through 27 instead, then ontowards 1328

(Jul 13-10:59) mike: if the market is going to see a decent pullback, it should come from here

(Jul 13-11:10) mike: 24.75 held, but 26.50-27.00 still strong. could have damage done if 24 area not help, 2370 on the NASDAQ futures

(Jul 13-11:31) mike: a small reversal, 25.25 area is key now
(Jul 13-11:32) mike: a bounce now should be sold

(Jul 13-11:37) mike: keep an eye on the NASDAQ also, 2370 area still key they are as is the 25 level on ES

(Jul 13-11:48) mike: 26.25 is now resistance, vulnerable under that. 2250-22.00 area support on a break lower

(Jul 13-12:14) mike: that was a four point pull back off of the high, it must hold, were quickly reverse it broken to keep the trend up day going. Otherwise things will be changing

(Jul 13-12:14) mike: I will be back in about 30 minutes or so

(Jul 13-12:57) mike: choppy action. So far today we have a 4.50 point pullback and a 4.00 point pullback. If they go down through the 23.25 level, then the market will be breaking down. Right now this is a scalpers market, with the pressure on under 26.50

(Jul 13-13:05) mike: the 22 area should be key support on further weakness here. The 25 area now resistance, and 2370 area on NASDAQ

(Jul 13-13:17) mike: 22 met, they bounced to the 24 area should fail if the downtrend is going to continue

(Jul 13-13:27) mike: everything was looking good with ES over 1324, now that level needs cleared/held in order to get turned back up and avoid a trip down to the 18.50. Area

(Jul 13-13:28) mike: the 2369-2370 area is the same as the 1324 area for resistance on the NASDAQ contract. A whole that 22 needed to avoid one more push lower

(Jul 13-13:47) mike: the NASDAQ rejected 2370, and the 24 level didn't hold long. Careful as there can be another push down before this tries to get footing for a decent bounce, I think the NASDAQ will be key to doing so

(Jul 13-13:56) mike: and NASDAQ did get hit with selling, pulling the ES down to test 20.50 support. A break of that level takes the ES to let 18 area, that should be key support on this pullback.

(Jul 13-14:07) mike: the 23 area should offer resistance, if that's cleared in the 24.50 area on the ES along with 2369-2370 still on the NASDAQ futures

(Jul 13-14:18) mike: 22.50 was sold and they dropped down to 1319.50 so far. One more push down to the 18-17 area would need to be reversed fast to avoid further trouble. A balance of more than 2.50.points on the ES needed to break the downside symmetry...

(Jul 13-14:33) mike: we got a quick reversal out of the 18-17 zone, a move over 1320.00-1320.50 now needed to have a 2:30 PM lowered in place for a potential late rally attempt.

(Jul 13-14:38) mike: the move up to 1320 is both a 2.50 point move, and at dynamic resistance. If it's cleared and 22.50 area would be next. That 24 area is key resistance, needs clear to keep a bullish posture

(Jul 13-14:44) mike: another 2.50 point bounce failed. This could continue until 3 PM, or into the close at 1320.50 is not clear. 1316 to be in the cards

(Jul 13-14:48) mike: small double bottom attempt here, need a push over 1320 that holds that on a pullback to get out of trouble in the last hour.

(Jul 13-14:48) mike: 2362 area on the NASDAQ futures also

(Jul 13-14:52) mike: I need to be a way after 3 PM.. The way the market has acted today, we could see a late run up to 24, and that succeeded then possibly 26.50. If the 1317.50 break, probably a test of the low

(Jul 13-15:06) mike: they broke 20.50, but no hold. Sell bounces, they are not holding. Have a good rest of the day. I'll see you here tomorrow
 

 

Tuesday July 12, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jul 12, 2011 9:21:28 AM EST
mike: a deeper drop a buy, but bounces should be better sells this morn

Jul 12, 2011 9:21:46 AM EST
mike: back near 10am

Jul 12, 2011 9:51:11 AM EST
mike: NASDAQ is leader, the 1308.50 still key on the ES this morning... 16.50 area should be good resistance

Jul 12, 2011 10:06:26 AM EST
mike: should pull back here

Jul 12, 2011 10:07:11 AM EST
mike: 15.00-14.50 to support, needs to hold to push higher

Jul 12, 2011 10:10:58 AM EST
mike: got tthe pullback, must hold 14.50 , or open the door for move towards 12

Jul 12, 2011 10:18:48 AM EST
mike: 14.25 held, if 16 area not pushed through and held, then this can roll over... follow the NASDAQ's direction

Jul 12, 2011 10:26:17 AM EST
mike: a bounce won't be sold , or budget battles

Jul 12, 2011 10:28:16 AM EST
mike: a bounce will be sold, not won't be sold... 1750 should be generally high to sell against

Jul 12, 2011 10:45:15 AM EST
mike: selling against 1317.50 is still in play, but the 1314 level needs broken/and held to put pressure on

Jul 12, 2011 10:53:09 AM EST
mike: there was yet another failure just under the 13 1750 area, that is the lid for today. Holding under 1314.50 keeps pressure on, 1308.50 will be seen if they stay under the 1314 50 area

Jul 12, 2011 10:59:48 AM EST
mike: watch 1450 here for small resistance

Jul 12, 2011 11:00:20 AM EST
mike: should be pivotal area. In this range

Jul 12, 2011 11:07:53 AM EST
mike: need to hold 14 now, or back to the 12. 00 area

Jul 12, 2011 11:10:14 AM EST
mike: 13.15 is a better support,, it is a scalper's market until this range is broken.

Jul 12, 2011 11:18:55 AM EST
mike: should retest 1312, and that could be key. if that's not held then the 1308.50 area. Need to get over the 17 level and hold to avoid this

Jul 12, 2011 11:23:03 AM EST
mike: looks like they stay range bound as long as 13 area holds on the bottom, and 17 area holds on the top.

Jul 12, 2011 11:23:25 AM EST
mike: I'll be back in just a little bit

Jul 12, 2011 11:33:32 AM EST
mike: 15.50 supp /must hold to break out here

Jul 12, 2011 11:34:29 AM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NASDAQ, its price pattern is not good

Jul 12, 2011 11:39:27 AM EST
mike: 15.50 held, a move up to 18.50 possible, and 17.50 push through, also watch 2357 area on the NASDAQ if they run up, he resistance there... if they fail again, and break 15.50, which could fall back to 12 area easily

Jul 12, 2011 11:42:18 AM EST
mike: if they're going to break out higher, must do it on this move, not to fail at 17.53 and

Jul 12, 2011 11:45:54 AM EST
mike: by pullbacks as long as the 1315.50 level has held, a reversal from either 20.50 area or a 23-24. Should be the highest/but it's bullish as long as 1750 area holds on a pullback right now

Jul 12, 2011 11:57:48 AM EST
mike: the NASDAQ ran up to a top, must hold 2350. A. break could pull the ES down

Jul 12, 2011 11:59:49 AM EST
mike: ES and NQ acting different today, NASDAQ has traded better, leaving most of the moves. Keep an eye on that, not just the ES

Jul 12, 2011 12:08:49 AM EST
mike: 16 held, That isnew trend support, a last trapped, and a support coming into today... a cluster of numbers there

Jul 12, 2011 12:11:57 AM EST
mike: one other thing, the three-point dips have held, and that symmetry would be broken if 16 breaks. A pop up to the 20.00-20.50 area will be sold if this is going to stay a two-sided day

Jul 12, 2011 12:18:06 AM EST
mike: NASDAQ about to break down, bounces there are shorts, and the ES is a short on a bounce back towards 19 area that stalls out

Jul 12, 2011 12:28:23 AM EST
mike: a bounce on the NASDAQ fizzled and it's breaking down, ES should be pulled out with it. Must get over the 18.00-1850 area and stick, or back towards 1312 area where there should be buyers waiting.

Jul 12, 2011 12:41:35 AM EST
mike: highs are in and this afternoon pullback should take the ESback towards 1312 it appears, cell bounces as they are not able to hold.

Jul 12, 2011 12:59:36 AM EST
mike: they might want to bump up from this 15 level, watch 18 area for resistance.

Jul 12, 2011 13:00:26 PM EST
mike: 17.75-18.50 is minor support on this bounce. 2351-53 area on the NASDAQ futures

Jul 12, 2011 13:14:28 PM EST
mike: they reachedthe 18 resistance, 17 now needs to hold to keep from turning back down, 1650 then would be key in here

Jul 12, 2011 13:16:46 PM EST
mike: obviously good sellers at the 18 area. This market is still on thin ice, and can see 1312, which is very key today
mike: resistance now at 15.50 area

Jul 12, 2011 13:43:27 PM EST
mike: 15.50 sold, key area there now until the Fed minutes at 2 PM

Jul 12, 2011 13:47:31 PM EST
mike: 15.50 area looks like it it will be pivotal after the Fed release. A move over that, that then holds, could set up a move back to the 1850 area at least. We will see. Don't force anything. There have been tradable moves today, if in then keep a stop and place

Jul 12, 2011 14:02:07 PM EST
mike: a pullback now to the 1450 area should hold, if not then

Jul 12, 2011 14:03:49 PM EST
mike: if not reversed at 14.50, could test the lows then reversed back up. 18 area resistance still

Jul 12, 2011 14:07:37 PM EST
mike: 15.50-14.50 area is as far as a pullback should go, or down to test 1312 or a bit lower. A pop up to 18.00-18.50 if this support can hold... they stall up there would be a short, if staying in two-sided trading

Jul 12, 2011 14:11:37 PM EST
mike: a pullback now should hold the 17 area at the deepest, watch for potential reversal around 20.50

Jul 12, 2011 14:15:58 PM EST
mike: a hold of 20 to give a pop back to the 23-24 area, then reverse, her last nights update

Jul 12, 2011 14:22:24 PM EST
mike: 23-24 reached, should pull back to test 20.50 yes that is a late afternoon high

Jul 12, 2011 14:24:40 PM EST
mike: there should be buyers there, if not then at the 18.00-17.50zone should hold if the market is going to stay bullish today. If 24 is exceeded, then market in good shape

Jul 12, 2011 14:26:43 PM EST
mike: 20.75 low so far, still have good resistance at the 23-24 zone. A deeper pullback more likely before a breakout attempt of that area

Jul 12, 2011 14:33:42 PM EST
mike: reached 18.50 area, if broken this keeps going towards 1315.50, key area now

Jul 12, 2011 14:37:46 PM EST
mike: ES needs to get back over 20.50 and not turn right back down, otherwise buyers up there at the reversal zone could start hitting the exit, getting them back towards 15.50 at the minimum it appears

Jul 12, 2011 14:43:57 PM EST
mike: doggone, 17.50 is a key area to hold it appears, need to break that 17 level, then 15.50, to go for the 1313-1312 area. 1320 meets cleared to avoid that move down

Jul 12, 2011 14:54:13 PM EST
mike: the 17 level held, the ES now needs to get over 1319.75-1320.25 areato get a push higher going, and avoid another push towards 15.50 or lower

Jul 12, 2011 14:56:34 PM EST
mike: 15.50 should be tested, and if no attempt to turn comes their, then down to 1313-1312 end of day

Jul 12, 2011 15:08:31 PM EST
mike: just about worked its way to 15.50, but this stays bearish unless 19.75-20.25 cleared and held in the last hour

Jul 12, 2011 15:21:16 PM EST
mike: we got a test of the 1313-1312 zone, with that low at 1313.75. It was made with 45 minutes left until stocks close. This bounce needs to take out the 1318 area, and hold, to get a rally into the close. A failure there instead would set up another test of the 1313-1312 area which should be bought

(Jul 12-15:23) mike: have a good rest of the day. I'll see you here in the morning
(Jul 12-15:45) mike: steady grind off 1323-1324, if 1312 broken, especially on a close, 1308.50 in the cards and maybe lower

 

 

 

Monday July 11, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 11-09:54) mike: 26.50 gap fill on weekly chart

(Jul 11-10:09) mike: 23.50 rr, key

(Jul 11-10:15) mike: 23.50-2400 need cleared / held

(Jul 11-10:30) mike: 17.75 missed by 3 ticks, cover remaining puts there, or stop 21.50-22.50 area at worst..

(Jul 11-10:37) mike: 20.50 trend resist

(Jul 11-10:38) mike: 17.75 met. 12.00-10/.50 if broken

(Jul 11-10:52) mike: 20.50 still resistance

(Jul 11-10:53) mike: they bounced off of key support, but need to get over 20.50 and stick or we could be going towards 1312

(Jul 11-11:16) mike: 17.75 now resistance, then 1320.. Should fail there, or morning while in place

(Jul 11-11:32) mike: 17.75 support again, must hold to avoid test of low.

(Jul 11-11:53) mike: 17.75was held, market should be okay for while as long as that holds

(Jul 11-12:03) mike: the 1320.00-1320.50 area needs cleared/held in order to get out of this poor market action

(Jul 11-12:22) mike: 17.75-16.50 area is still acting as support after being pushed through early.. Shorts have been covering there. If they bounce to 22.50 on this move, then a dip back to the 20-19 area would be support. Must get over 20.50 here soon if we are going to get to that 22.50 area

(Jul 11-12:43) mike: the market is bouncing between resistance and support. If this continues a bit longer, then a break of the range should give a move of about three points above the 20 level on a breakout on the upside, or a test of the low on a break to the downside. For now it is a scalper's market

(Jul 11-12:43) mike: or hold short with stops just about resistance.

(Jul 11-12:53) mike: a double bottom is possible, but if 14 is cut through that will go right to the 1312.00-1310.50 area

(Jul 11-13:15) mike: a drop down to the 12 area still possible here, if there is a reversal that has some power to it, then it can potentially set up a decent bounce, but unless the 1320 is cleared it stays trending down

(Jul 11-13:20) mike: the 16.50 area is now trend down resistance....

(Jul 11-13:41) mike: 16.50 was sold, still trend down

(Jul 11-13:46) mike: they quickly reversed a test of a low, so lots of shorts likely want to cover there. A pullback should be bought, for a scalp to begin with

(Jul 11-13:48) mike: the 17.25-17.75 area would be a target/resistance on a bounce that clears 16.50

(Jul 11-14:03) mike: 17.25-17.75 area reached, the 16 area needs to hold on a dip to keep this little trend intact

(Jul 11-14:09) mike: they could hold here, but need to see 17.50exceeded/held to get this turned around a bit on the upside. The 60 EMA on five-minute chart here also

(Jul 11-14:29) mike: tiny bounces due to the big down open, they've held down here two times, if this third test breaks them down to 1312... if that's not reversed, then 1308.50 last support for today

(Jul 11-14:39) mike: 1250 was a support level and it was just missed, short covering area it looks. bounces should still be sold, resistance now around 1316 and 2368 on NASDAQ. If those clear a low may be in

(Jul 11-15:08) mike: there is a 12.50 level... still unless 15.50 is cleared now this stays trend down into the close

(Jul 11-15:28) mike: if they hold under 1312, then a push down to1308.50. If 1312 holds, then a low could be shaping up down in this area. Still need to get over 15.50 in order to take the pressure off end of day.

(Jul 11-15:29) mike: have a good rest of the day
 

 

Friday July 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Jul 08-10:11) mike: this is a short still under 37.50-38.00 at the highest. Need to get over 36 just to take some pressure off

(Jul 08-10:20) mike: support at 30.50, and if that isn't held in the key areas today is26.50 area. If that breaks, could get ugly and go for the 17 -- 16 area

(Jul 08-10:25) mike: half of the put options bought yesterday were covered on the open. Keep the rest for a potential drop towards 17 -- 16. area/a stop at break even for now on that trade

(Jul 08-10:38) mike: the support at 30.50held, now the 34.50-35.00 needs cleared to avoid another push lower

(Jul 08-10:45) mike: stay with shorting bounces today. It will take a move over 38 that holds to turn this back up... even then, don't expect the bounce to stick

(Jul 08-11:09) mike: 34.50 -- 35.00 updated resistance was sold, and 30.50 test -- -- this move should still see the 28.00 -- 26.50 area, and ultimate target at 1317.75. A break and hold over 35 needed to nullify this

(Jul 08-11:18) mike: 31.50 resistance now. Needs cleared/held to take some pressure off. If not, still trend down

(Jul 08-11:30) mike: bounces still cannot stick. This needs to bounce off of the 30 level or will go to 28.50 or so

(Jul 08-11:38) mike: 30 was quickly reversed. We should have a low in place for a while. A pullback needs to hold their 32. If they move up to 35, a reversal there likely

(Jul 08-11:57) mike: should break down here if going lower. A break and hold under the 33.00-32.50 area puts pressure back on

(Jul 08-12:03) mike: the 35 area was rejected, so a push under 33 should this back into downtrend's and test the lows. Need to stay under 35 to keep pressure on

(Jul 08-12:12) mike: just a short on bounces under 35. The market is vulnerable and less cleared and held on a pullback 32 area that support

(Jul 08-12:22) mike: 32 test giving a feeble bounce. 35 is still key..back in about 15-25 minutes

(Jul 08-12:45) mike: 35 key

(Jul 08-12:52) mike: 2392 nq key r

(Jul 08-13:08) mike: it looks like 33 meets broken and held. Watch the NASDAQ, it came off a 1-2-3-type of top. The ES is holding up a bit better

(Jul 08-13:24) mike: the market has gone sideways for quite a while here. The ES needs to clear 1335, along with the NASDAQ getting over 2292. Otherwise it's still vulnerable.

(Jul 08-13:27) mike: that's 2392 on the NASDAQ futures...

(Jul 08-13:34) mike: I don't think this is going to stick, 38.50 is resistance. A pullback to 35 should hold if the market is going to avoid hurling over again

(Jul 08-13:49) mike: that 38 area should be hard to get through. If 35 isn't held here then right back to the 34-33 area, and possibly a break lower

(Jul 08-13:54) mike: the need to bounce here. Even if they do this should set up a short, the 38 area should not be exceeded and held

(Jul 08-14:00) mike: a pop up to 36 failed. I'd like to see them pop up there to 38 area, but doubt that happens. But if it does a number of stalls out, it sets up a good short.

(Jul 08-14:14) mike: the NASDAQ is weaker, 2393 -- 2396 strong resistance there.

(Jul 08-14:32) mike: a 2:30 PM rally attempt. It should fail at or under 38-39 area. Stuck between 33 and 38, need a break out of this range... I still favor shorts at or around 1338.

(Jul 08-15:10) mike: bounces still not able to stick

(Jul 08-15:15) mike: 37.25 sold and that should be a high in the last hour. If 35 isn't held, 33 gets tested

(Jul 08-15:18) mike: 35 is key here. Dynamics have changed, bounces should fail for another few days. Have a great weekend

 

 

 

Thursday July 07, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 07-10:06) mike: top nq
(Jul 07-10:10) mike: 2391 on NASDAQ needs held, or they break lower
(Jul 07-10:12) mike: this doesn't look like a gap up and go rally day. Should see a decent pullback from up here
(Jul 07-10:32) mike: back to the top of the morning range. A break of the 45 area should turn the trend, not much upside from up here
(Jul 07-10:38) mike: if the NASDAQ futures break 2298, then a pullback starts. If held, then the ES can get to 1350.50-1352.00 area. nq LEADER TTHIS MORN
(Jul 07-10:55) mike: thinking swing trade w/ puts , 48-52 area scale in. spy aug 137 -- high in possibly for now

(Jul 07-11:06) mike: 48 rejected a number of times here, 2404 on the NASDAQ too, the market is vulnerable under that area
(Jul 07-11:13) mike: biggest tips have been 3.00 and 2.50 points... a break of 45.50 with a high end place
(Jul 07-11:27) mike: 46.00-45.50 needs broken here or we stay in this range, 2400 on NASDAQ
(Jul 07-11:35) mike: a break here should cause a move for the exits by late buyers
(Jul 07-11:42) mike: 4550 on ES and 2400 on the NASDAQ are lines in the sand... though the ES looks like it talready maybe it's high

(Jul 07-12:00) mike: very feeble bounce off of 4550, but need the NASDAQ to turn down to get pressure put on
(Jul 07-12:13) mike: NASDAQ now needs to stay over 2402 area to stay in trend of mode. If that breaks, and a 46 on the ES breaks, then the move will reverse.
(Jul 07-12:18) mike: 47.00 on the ES is support now 2304 area on the NASDAQ..
(Jul 07-12:27) mike: key spot here, 47.25 needs to hold. If 48.50 is pushed through, a test of 50.50-52.00 as possible yet today before a turn
(Jul 07-12:37) mike: the NASDAQ rollover finally, 48.50 double top on ES... a break of 1347-1346 would put pressure on
(Jul 07-12:45) mike: need a clear break of 47.50 on the ES and 2404 on NASDAQ to change the trend,

(Jul 07-13:01) mike: upside losing what little momentum it has on the upside. If 47.50 break's then a bounce that followsshould fail to make a higher high. Otherwise one more push higher towards 50.50 as possible. Bids are drying up however

(Jul 07-13:11) mike: 48.50 is now support on a pullback. The 50.50 level still possible if 48.50 is not broken
(Jul 07-13:35) mike: 50.50 was sold, 48.50. It is now key to stay over to avoid a reversal.
(Jul 07-13:56) mike: double top at 50.50, need a move under 48.50 in order to break down

(Jul 07-14:23) mike: 50.50 now support. A pullback should hold their to keep the move in gear
(Jul 07-14:29) mike: it's 51.00-50.50 zone that needs to hold now to keep the move going.
(Jul 07-14:50) mike: it has been a trend up day, if we are going to get a pullback it should start soon. A break of 51.00-50.50 zone needed to turn this lower. 1354 is next resistance

(Jul 07-15:03) mike: they should bounce from the 51. Here, otherwise the last hour could see a drop back towards 48.50
(Jul 07-15:15) mike: bounce from 51.25, key end of day
(Jul 07-15:27) mike: should be high in , buy a fewputs up here
(Jul 07-15:37) mike: 51.50 area resistance going into the close. Have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday July 06, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 06-13:02) mike: after making a low in the first hour, that ES got
over 1329.25 and held that on a dip and it has been trend up since. The ES
should pullback here but as long as 35 holds, the trend still continues. A
broken and have a reversal this afternoon

(Jul 06-13:14) mike: mkt a sell on bounce unless 1336.50-1337.00 ES,
2379.75-2381.50 NQ exceeded

(Jul 06-13:25) mike: if 33.25 it is broken here, and not quickly reversed,
pressure should be on the downside towards 30 or lower..

(Jul 06-13:50) mike: 33.25 held, but with the high at resistance, 1335
area should fail here.. If not and 35 is cleared and held then one more
push to a slightly higher high as possible, but likely sold up there

(Jul 06-14:03) mike: the pullback held right at 35.25, which is now key
support this afternoon, as is 2373 on the NASDAQ. The market stays out of
trouble if those hold. A pop up to test the highs should be sold, but if
not then one more move up towards 1339 -- 1340 is possible.

(Jul 06-14:09) mike: all bounces now are shorts, especially near 1335 on
the ES, though I doubt that's reached again. 31-30 next support

(Jul 06-14:38) mike: could pop back towards 35, which looks key in order
to attempt to make it go at the high. Watch that area for a reversal.

(Jul 06-15:04) mike: they failed at the 35 area stay with shorts as a top
should be in place. A break of the 32 area, if no quick reversal, will put
pressure on at the end of day

(Jul 06-15:18) mike: a quick reversal from 32 first try, a break here
should push them to 2850 at least. Also watch 2267 on the NASDAQ which is
also key support now. If they pop back up, should reverse down fast if
this is going to close poorly

(Jul 06-15:32) mike: last 30 minutes... the 32 level was tested and
reversed two times now, and the 35 level was rejected two times after
topping... those are key in the day. For now nothing bad happens in less
than 32 area is broken. Just don't get caught long near the high, this is
the third day of failure up there. Have a good day

 

 

Tuesday July 05, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jul 5, 2011 9:29 mike: more econ data at 10am. 31.50 needs
held or dynamics change.

 

Jul 5, 2011 9:38 mike: 28 next , 33 area resist needs exceeded/ held

Jul 5, 2011 9:52 mike:33 area rejection, needs cleared/ held ... 2361 on NQ

Jul 5, 2011 10:05 mike: 32.50 pivotal, need held to avoid reversal. back in 15 min.

 

Jul 5, 2011 10:32 mike: 33 r

 

Jul 5, 2011 10:41 mike: 33 area is still key. If cleared then a
test of the high possible, but that will fail.

 

Jul 5, 2011 10:52 mike: the market is vulnerable as long as 34 on the
ES, 2364 on NASDAQ, are not cleared and held

(Jul 05-11:10) mike: 28 area to cover partial short. The
31.50 -- 32.00 area should be key resistance now

 

(Jul 05-11:23) mike: 2364 NQ resist too, ,

(Jul 05-11:32) mike: .ES has not spent much time below 1330. A drop under that would
need to turn right back up. Otherwise the market breaks down

(Jul 05-11:51) mike: 6 point range on ES so far,, NQ lead
move up, a fail to hold 2363 break trend

(Jul 05-12:03) mike: 32.75 on the ES, 2363on NASDAQ both need held or this rolls over

(Jul 05-12:15) mike: ES bounced off of 32.75 to keep the trend up. This
area above is key. Both 1335 on ES and 2366 -- 2367 on NASDAQ both the
cleared, or market has topped for a lunchtime move.

(Jul 05-12:50) mike: ES toppy, NASDAQ has good resistance 2367 --
2368, careful for reversal up here

(Jul 05-13:11) mike: this has been a very slow grind higher once again.
However the range is very small compared to what we had last week. So, if
the ES breaks down through the 33.50-33.00 area, then it should be
breaking down and could pick up some steam. If that area holds, then no
damage done but from here the upside certainly appears a limited

(Jul 05-13:28) mike: 36.75-38.00 ES ,, 71.50-72 NQ both key.
33.50-33.00 must hold supp

(Jul 05-13:52) mike: resistance just miss on the ES, however no reversal
unless there is a pullback of more than two points, the biggest pullback
since the grind higher started.

(Jul 05-14:04) mike: that should be it, all bounces are short now as we
reversed from resistance by +2 points

(Jul 05-14:17) mike: the 34.00-34.50. Should be good resistance now
(Jul 05-14:19) mike: a drop down to 28.00 -- 26.50 area should be good
support, otherwise things began to get a bit ugly

(Jul 05-14:26) mike: 32.50-34.00 area should be good resistance. 2365 area
on the NASDAQ

(Jul 05-15:00) mike: the 33 area was rejected, that needs to be cleared
and held on a pullback, otherwise we have a top and place. If cleared and
held and then one more move up towards the high could occur before turning
down again

(Jul 05-15:14) mike: 34.00was the top side of resistance, and 32.50 break
been we should go back and test the 28 area.

(Jul 05-15:22) mike: a test of the high is possible late here, but if
32.50 is broken, then back down towards the lows at the close. Have a good
rest of the day

 

 

Friday July 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 01-09:29) mike: ISM index at 10am, should be something that starts a drop. we'll see.
(Jul 01-09:37) mike: bounces should't stick per update
(Jul 01-09:44) mike: 12400 on dow cash important to hold too. if that and 1312 break/ hold, trends change
(Jul 01-09:54) mike: 14.50 area pivotal on reversal now
(Jul 01-09:57) mike: 1317.50-1318.00 key to get over/ hold , not reverse. 15.50 area supp to break

(Jul 01-10:03) mike: 17.50 key supp now. as long as 1320 area holds, 1 more up move
(Jul 01-10:07) mike: 12500 on dow cash , 1325 ES key up here. 21-20 below,. sellers at 25 area
(Jul 01-10:07) mike: back in 15 min
(Jul 01-10:27) mike: mkt ok unless 23 breaks at this time
(Jul 01-10:28) mike: 27.50-2800 resist
(Jul 01-10:47) mike: top 28 resist
(Jul 01-10:47) mike: 25 s

(Jul 01-11:04) mike: 24.75 dip held, rolls over to 20 if broken

(Jul 01-12:17) mike: 28.50 dbl top , dip over lunchtime. 26 s
(Jul 01-12:26) mike: as long as 26.50 held trend up, if broken 25[
(Jul 01-13:06) mike: as long as dips of 2.50-3.50 are held, it grinds on up. if a drop ofv 4 ES pts , dynamics change.

(Jul 01-13:19) mike: stay w/ upside till a break of 3.50 pts.... calling it a week. have a great holiday weekend
 

 

Thursday June 30, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 30-09:26) mike: hi, just a note to let you know that next week we hopefully get back to more normal.
(Jun 30-09:27) mike: 1308.00 ES, 2301.00 NQ good resist early
(Jun 30-09:31) mike: 06.00-05.50 supp 1
(Jun 30-09:36) mike: 05.50-54.50 should be seen.
(Jun 30-09:43) mike: 05.50 key area now. 12.00-12.50 next , but 10 a good r
(Jun 30-09:49) mike: 05.50 to 13.75 fast. . a dip to 11.00-10.50 area should / must hold
(Jun 30-09:53) mike: parabolic run up, pop to near 12.50-13.00 sell. area
(Jun 30-09:56) mike: 11.00-10.50 held, still must hold or a high in for now

(Jun 30-10:07) mike: dipped to 1310 n reversed up. little db top, but ok if 12 holds, if not .. 05.50 is the major area today if 1310 not held.
(Jun 30-10:27) mike: 13.75 needs held
(Jun 30-10:31) mike: 13.00-12.50 should be tested
(Jun 30-10:45) mike: a sell under 14
(Jun 30-10:55) mike: 14 key here , scalp only

(Jun 30-11:02) mike: as long as 12.hold dips still buys.
(Jun 30-11:17) mike: as long as a dip is just 3.50 pts, mkt still is ok. more is trend change/ not much upside left tho

(Jun 30-11:45) ziad: This can continue to grind a bit higher but if the 1314 area is broken and not quickly reversed then we could see a decent pullback today. Otherwise there may be a shot at reaching 1318 but that should be about as far as this gets.

(Jun 30-12:18) mike: sell a test of high, in place up there, nq sagging
(Jun 30-12:34) mike: swing trade short, scale in
(Jun 30-12:42) mike: 12.00 then 09 levels under 14

(Jun 30-13:14) mike: snoozer , dull action, 15.50 good r

(Jun 30-13:19) ziad: We had a lunch time top, bounces should be sold now. There should be good resistance at the 1314.50 area. If that is taken out then a test of the highs will be sold into. On the down side a break of 1312.00 that is not reversed back up should mean a drop towards 1208.50.

(Jun 30-14:14) mike: stuck between 1312 on bottom, 1314.50 area on top.... the 1312 needs held on close or bearish / odds of sizable drop growing

(Jun 30-14:47) keith: Light and dull trading at the end of the quarter and ahead of the holiday weekend. 1312 area held on the last pullback. Although the market looks tired, as long as that 1312 area holds, no damage done. If broken, things are changing (at least for the short-term).

(Jun 30-15:22) mike: 12 still key, have a good day

 

 

Wednesday June 29, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 29-11:01) ziad: ES stalling at 1301-1302 resistance a pullback needs to hold 1298.

(Jun 29-11:03) ziad: Its going to take a break of 1300 to get our push down towards our 1299-1298 area.

(Jun 29-11:10) ziad: The market has a good bid on even small pullbacks so unless 1300.50 is broken the trend up will continue. If that area breaks however than things can be changing.

(Jun 29-11:11) ziad: If short keep a stop just above the high.
(Jun 29-11:11) ziad: Look to lock in any profit near 1301.00

(Jun 29-11:32) ziad: We had a small double top at 1303.25 and now if 1301.25-1301.00 isn't held then we should be in the midst of a decent sized pullback. The 1298-1297 would be key to hold if there is a decent pullback.

(Jun 29-12:08) ziad: After spending an hour trading between 1303.25 and 1300.50 the ES finally pushed to a new high and now as long as 1301.50-1300.50 is held this move can continue. If 1305-1306 is reached and the move stalls then we could see a 3-4 point pullback on the ES. A pullback shouldn't go more than that or else the dynamics will change.

(Jun 29-12:42) keith: The markets had another good rally today and are up 3
days in a row. Internal gauges are getting very overbought and this
current move is looking like it is losing gas. There could be one more
push towards 1305.5-1306.50, but if that happens it should be a top of
some sort. If that is not reached and 1302, or more importantly, 1300.50
is broken, then a top should be in for the day.

(Jun 29-13:52) keith: We had a rejection from 1305, just under our
resistance zone, and a pullback followed. So far today pullbacks have
been 2.25-2.75 points. If a pullback takes out the 1302 area, it should
start a break to the downside. Otherwise there could be one more test of
the 1305.50-1306.50 zone. If this test happens it should fail, but the
bulls stay in control unless there is a pullback of 3 points.

(Jun 29-14:09) julie: 02.50 resist now

(Jun 29-14:36) keith: The ES pulled back to 1297.50 (resistance turned
support). That area is key or the lows could be challenged this
afternoon. The ES needs to get over 1302.50 and not reverse in order to
avoid a late day pullback/drop.

(Jun 29-15:16) keith: Here at the end of the day, the resistance is
1302.50. If pushed through, then we could get another run up towards the
highs. If it is rejected, then the ES could change toward 1297.50. Have
a good rest of the day. Mike plans back tomorrow around 10:30AM.

 

Tuesday June 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Jun 28-11:36) ziad: the market is stronger than anticipated, but its beginning to look toppy and now the 1284-1283 area needs to hold to avoid a decent sized pullback

(Jun 28-12:08) ziad: The market has been grinding in trend up mode and just made a slightly higher high. It looks like 1286-1285.50 area is as far as a dip should go to keep the move intact. If that area is not held then we should probably see a decent pullback.

(Jun 28-12:55) ziad: For the last hour or so the ES has hovered just above the 1286-1285.50 support and appears to be getting a bit tired. However unless that support is broken the trend up move will continue. If that area breaks than expect a bounce that follows to fail. Otherwise boring grind higher should continue.

(Jun 28-13:19) keith: It has been a trend up day so far but the ES just turned down from 1289.50. We should either see a reversal from the 1291.50 level if the high is not in yet. To break the trend the ES needs to pullback 3.50 points from its high or break 1286 whichever is higher to roll the market over. The NQ also needs to stay over 2272.

(Jun 28-13:38) keith: The market has grinded higher but there has been less momentum with each push. In the process, there was a small 123 Top formed at 1289.50-1289. That area should be good resistance. If broken we could still see 1291.50 but more likely the market will pull back here, especially if 1286 is broken.

(Jun 28-14:54) keith: The ES reversed at 1291.75. That could be it for this afternoon bounce. At this pace, the ES should not go higher the 1292-1293 area. If there is a break of the 1289.75-1289.25 zone that is not reversed, then things will change this afternoon.

(Jun 28-15:42) keith: Mike is calling it a day. He is planning to be back online around 10:30AM tomorrow morning.
 

Monday June 27, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 27-9:44) ziad: This update is from Mike. The lower open reversed right from the 1262.00-1261.50 initial support and after pausing at initial resistance that was pushed thru and the second resistance was just missed so far. For now it looks like 1269 area needs to hold to keep the trends from reversing.

(Jun 27-10:07) ziad: The market is acting a bit tired here and unless 1273.50 is cleared and held the market will be vulnerable

(Jun 27-10:24) ziad: 1269.00 needs to hold or quickly reverse back up otherwise a top is in and bounces should begin to fail.

(Jun 27-10:56) ziad: There could be reversal from 1274.75-1275.50 but it shouldnt pullback too far if the market is still strong.

(Jun 27-10:56) ziad: The initial resistance turned into support and as long as 1269.00 holds now the market will be positive.

(Jun 27-12:16) ziad: Small pullback from 1274.75 but unless 1273.00 is broken it still a good trend up day in gear.

(Jun 27-13:25) keith: Note from Mike:
(Jun 27-13:26) keith: The 1274.75-1275.25 resistance was rejected for second time. This afternoon market will be vulnerable unless cleared. A drop to 1269.75-1269.25 will need to be held or a late day reversal occurs.

(Jun 27-13:56) keith: The 1271.25 area is where the 60 EMA (5-min chart) is and needs to hold or bigger trends could reverse.
(Jun 27-14:11) keith: 1274.75-1275.25 pushed through. Can make it to the next zone (1279.75-1280.50) as long 1276.25-1275.75 area holds.
(Jun 27-14:32) keith: As long as a pullback is no more than 3.50-4.25 points on the ES, then the trend up move can continue into the close.
(Jun 27-14:32) keith: A push through 1279.75-1280.50 will be needed to get a good push going into the close.
(Jun 27-15:18) keith: Mike's going to call it a day - have a good afternoon. See you here in the morning.

 

 

 

Friday June 17, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Jun 17-09:26) mike: 1276.50-1277.00 listed resist key early. the 1280.50 area is a major area. another big gap open, 73.00-72.50 supp 1 now, if broken then 69.00-68.50 area . another 2 sided day. quarterly expiration too
(Jun 17-09:43) mike: 73.00-73.50 good resist
(Jun 17-09:49) mike: 72.75 sold, 70 must hold on dip or 68 area will be tested, or lower , 73.5 key resist
(Jun 17-09:57) mike: Leading indicators 10am.
(Jun 17-09:58) mike: NQ the better short. ES better for longs. nq needs over 2210 or its vulnerable

(Jun 17-10:03) mike: NQ failed, but ES strong... expiration stuff... a dip needs to stay over 72on ES
(Jun 17-10:08) mike: 72 held, nq NOT GOOD, SELLING NQ POPS
(Jun 17-10:10) mike: 72.25 HOLDING, MKT BULLISH UNLESS BROKEN, TO 77 POSSIBLE
(Jun 17-10:12) mike: sorry bout caps. es needs to get over 75 n stick, 2211 on nq the same
(Jun 17-10:17) mike: top in for now. 73 a short
(Jun 17-10:22) mike: 72.50 sold on bounce. NQ will keep pressure on the rest of mkt as long as it stays under 2210-2212 area, max, on a bounce. its 73.50 on ES
(Jun 17-10:26) mike: 68.50 was small , then 64-62.50 area , 71 resist on a pop up now
(Jun 17-10:43) mike: trading range, a dip to 70 should / must hold to keep upside from reversing
(Jun 17-10:54) mike: 70.75 held , no real dip, and upside continued, triple top if 71.50-71.00 area not held,
(Jun 17-10:56) mike: 71.25 low so far must reverse up soon here
(Jun 17-10:58) mike: its key to hold, bids dry up on bounces up here so far

(Jun 17-11:02) mike: bounces are shorts if the 73-74 area reached / stall a bit, ots 2205 on NQ still good short on bounces it topped
(Jun 17-11:13) mike: if 68 area breaks , then can drop pretty hard , 72 should be sold on bounce, NQ will be weaker on drop.
(Jun 17-11:22) mike: 72.25 high so far sold, 70.50 needs held or a reversal to downside. 70.50 pivotal level it looks.

(Jun 17-11:34) mike: a dbl top at micro resist, no follow thru yet... not normal mkt. be selective or scalp only. all i know is that the 68.50-67.50 needs held. if broken and not reversed up fast, it means trouble and a pretty good drop. to 63-62 area possible .

(Jun 17-11:37) mike: The market has been in a choppy range, with double tops and bottoms. A break or 1268 area that's not quickly reversed starts a good sized drop. 1272.50 needs cleared, held on a dip to break out higher.

(Jun 17-11:52) mike: a triangle pattern being formed to, should held make break of range have momentum .
(Jun 17-11:59) mike: i need to be away until around 1:30pm or so. for me its a seat on sidelines until later if you are not adept at scalping .

(Jun 17-13:30) mike: triangle broke to downside, met 64-63 area. this bounce should fail , 66.50-67.50 area resist
(Jun 17-13:42) mike: resist sold, 65.50 needs held
(Jun 17-13:58) mike: if short from last bounce to 66.60-67.50 cover at last part if you havent already.

(Jun 17-14:07) mike: After the last update the ES broke 1268 and dropped to 1263.25 target. That's a key support now, must hold or the week ends on a bad note. A move over 1268.50 needed to avoid another pullback and close well.

(Jun 17-14:19) mike: there was good bid at 65 area on ES, 2190 nq , mkt holds together as long as those hold on a dip now.
(Jun 17-14:20) mike: 68.50 key on top
(Jun 17-14:28) mike: 67.50 needs held on dip to keep this up now
(Jun 17-14:47) mike: test of 69 that fails is a short

(Jun 17-15:11) mike: bleed lower into close if 68 not cleared
(Jun 17-15:19) mike: 61-60 cover on shorts. 66 area resist
(Jun 17-15:29) mike: key here . 65.50-66.50 key end of day
(Jun 17-15:35) mike: 2188 on NQ the key to get over. 65.50 ES
(Jun 17-15:38) mike: short covering bounce trying to get SPX over 1270.98. , 64 needs held to not close poorly
(Jun 17-15:41) mike: expiration games , have a great weekend, ready to get em on monday morn. and happy fathers day to the dad's . take care

 

 

Thursday June 16, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 16-09:16) mike: 1263.50-1264.00 still key early, 58.50-58.00 supp on pullback.
(Jun 16-09:17) mike: note, philly fed at 10am, should be a mkt mover
(Jun 16-09:23) mike: good move already. 63.50 will need cleared / held
(Jun 16-09:55) mike: stall at resist, philly fed at 10am , 61.50 needs held at worst

(Jun 16-10:02) mike: 61.50 now good resist.
(Jun 16-10:11) mike: low made dbl bottom , but this should be a 2 way day, 61 area needs held to stay up
(Jun 16-10:21) mike: 1266.25-1266.75 met, 63.50 needs held

(Jun 16-10:31) mike: The ES opened flat, dipped to just over 1258 support then bounced to 1264 resistance and stalled. From the 1264.50 high a sharp drop to test yesterday's lows came on Philly Fed release, and a very sharp run up to the 1266.75 resistance stalling out. The 1262.50 needs held or more trouble, but a 2-sided day likely today.

(Jun 16-10:40) mike: resist at 68
(Jun 16-10:43) mike: 71.75-72.50 IF 68 pushed thru, held. 2212 on NQ key to
(Jun 16-10:48) mike: 65.75-65.25 needs held to keep grind higher ,
(Jun 16-10:57) mike: if 68 not pushed over soon, 2212 on NQ [that not quickly reversed], a drop back to 63 area

(Jun 16-11:08) mike: 63 reached, a top in at 68 and just over 2212 on NQ to sell against. a bounce to test high, or lower, a good short if it can get there on feeble bounce
(Jun 16-11:17) mike: 65.00-65.50 resist
(Jun 16-11:20) mike: dont know where that came from, but buy a dip over 62, mkt strong
(Jun 16-11:23) mike: 64.50 should held. if a pop up to new high, sell the stall/ reversal
(Jun 16-11:25) mike: this choppy whippy action is for scalp trades only, not as ''easy'' as yesterday.
(Jun 16-11:33) mike: should pull back, but still in buy dip mode as long as 65.00-64.50 held
(Jun 16-11:35) mike: 67 now needs held/ reversed up , or reversal possible to 65-ish

(Jun 16-12:02) mike: 64.50 held so thats key area still
(Jun 16-12:10) mike: i need to be away until near 1:30pm today. as long as 64.50 holds the bulls in control, 71.75-72.50 key resist on a push to new high. if 64.50 not broken, held .

(Jun 16-13:39) mike: bounce a good short now
(Jun 16-13:48) mike: NQ at low, a pop up here
(Jun 16-13:48) mike: 63 area should be sold.

(Jun 16-13:51) mike: After the last update the ES pulled back to 1264.50 and bounced but failed to make a higher high and rolled over. Bounces are shorts unless 1263 is cleared, held on a dip now.

(Jun 16-13:57) mike: 61 now trend resist. if 58.50 breaks/ holds then a move to 55-54 area , NQ the leader to follow

(Jun 16-14:01) mike: 59.50-60.00 good resist on a pop, trend per ebook 1 min chart and last trapped
(Jun 16-14:06) mike: short cover bounce, doubt longs want to hold em. we're close to a bottom, not yet tho,
(Jun 16-14:13) mike: press on under 60, NQ breaking apart a bit, 2195.50 resist, 2198 key resist there
(Jun 16-14:24) mike: 58 not exceeded feeble bounce off dbl bottom
(Jun 16-14:28) mike: a dip to 57.50-57.00 needs held now. still not trusting long side but for a very quick scalp
(Jun 16-14:34) mike: must push over 58.50 n hold over that on dip to get upside going , no go unless that happens, lots of longs stuck above
(Jun 16-14:42) mike: 1252.00-1250.50 area, 1257 SPX could be seen for short covering run up/ 56 needs pushed over / held to get some pressure off here,
(Jun 16-14:53) mike: 56.00 the key resist now, must hold 1252.00-1250.50 and clear that 56.00 to start to try to bottom
(Jun 16-14:56) mike: a test of 52 should hold, careful with shorts for now , until higher prices fizzle

(Jun 16-15:11) mike: resist at 59.50-60.00, 56 area needs held or no low yet
(Jun 16-15:23) mike: 59.50 stopped the move, 57.50 good supp now. needs held or a drop to 55.50 or more
(Jun 16-15:30) mike: 59.50-60.00 is good resist needs cleared ,
(Jun 16-15:34) mike: a dip should hold 58.50-58.00 area, a low in place , a good dip a buy
(Jun 16-15:53) mike: 64.50 next
(Jun 16-15:54) mike: 60.50 has to hold on close.
(Jun 16-15:55) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday June 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 15-09:51) mike: reversed 73.50 , 72 needs held
(Jun 15-09:54) mike: 76.50-77.50 next , must hold 73.50 now
(Jun 15-09:58) mike: 12000 on dow cash rejected, in play as resist again

(Jun 15-10:00) mike: 72 area supp
(Jun 15-10:08) mike: as long as 72.50-72.00 holds, mkt avoids test/ break of lows . 77 area resist
(Jun 15-10:14) mike: top in it looks if 7350 breaks
(Jun 15-10:26) mike: test of lows coming if stay under 73.50 area , a break off 72 to get a breakdown

(Jun 15-10:32) mike: The ES gapped down about 13 points this morning and reversed and a rally to 1275.75 followed. That stalled and reversed, if 1272 breaks the downside gets in gear. A move over 1276 is needed to avoid another drop today.

(Jun 15-10:39) mike: 72.50 pivotal here
(Jun 15-10:46) mike: a move up to 75.50 resist possible, then pullback .
(Jun 15-10:51) mike: 73.50 sup on dip now
(Jun 15-10:57) mike: 73.50 held, thats now key to hold over

(Jun 15-11:08) mike: dbl top , weak NQ , RBI Osc in sell territory at yest close, bounces should fail/
(Jun 15-11:16) mike: 73.50-74.00 resist on a bounce
(Jun 15-11:25) mike: 73.50-74.00 sold a drop to 72.50 now needs held or to test lows
(Jun 15-11:31) mike: its trying to stay in this range, hold of 71 needed to avoid a break towards 68 area
(Jun 15-11:35) mike: low tested but pressure still on to 69.75 or lower as llong as 72 area not exceeded
(Jun 15-11:38) mike: there, 69.75-70.50 good resist on a bounce , if it gets there
(Jun 15-11:44) mike: 66 is a small supp, but 62 better, even 59-58 area possible on this leg dn. 68.50 resist now
(Jun 15-11:55) mike: 62 just missed by a few ticks. , 67.50 should be key resist if going to 58 area or lower today.

(Jun 15-12:06) mike: 66.00 sold, its key here , need 64.50 to break
(Jun 15-12:20) mike: 62 finally met. its an ugly day again , 64.50 resist now, but a move over 66 resist now needed to try to change this. 58.50-57.50 next supp below

(Jun 15-12:28) mike: 1258.25-1257.50 zone met, feeble bounces still. thats last target until 1258.25-1257.50 area, then 200d ma around 1254 on SPX SP500 Cash. 62-63 resist now, 66 is very key to get over or still bearish

(Jun 15-12:29) mike: i need to be away 60 min or so, my apologies.

(Jun 15-13:42) mike: shortly after i left the ES reversed back dn from 63.50 , a good resist area. this dbl bottom could stick, but doubt it goes far before being sold.

(Jun 15-14:07) mike: 60.50 should hold on a dip if lows are to hold. 63.50 then 66.00 resist now ,
(Jun 15-14:16) mike: 63.50 sold, 61.00 so far on the dip. its gotta get thru 63.50,
(Jun 15-14:29) mike: 1252.00-1251.50 if a hold under 58

(Jun 15-14:34) mike: triple/ quadruple bottoms normally do not hold. the bounce started with 90 minutes left, logical time for a low/ rally, but still it will take a move over 63.50 resist again to get out of trouble for a bit

(Jun 15-14:47) mike: 59.50 resist

(Jun 15-15:13) mike: weak , under pressure unless 58.50 area exceeded / held here
(Jun 15-15:20) mike: 58.25 sold, it looks key end of day to get over / hold to get out of trouble late day. 1254 supp
(Jun 15-15:26) mike: 58.50-58.00 needs held on dip, or a last drop lower occurs
(Jun 15-15:33) mike: 63.50 is key to close over. still in trouble unless cleared. have a good rest of the day
(Jun 15-15:45) mike: 58.50 area held, it'll be key overnight . take care

 

 

Monday June 13, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 13-09:17) mike: go by nightly update early. 68.00-67.50 initial resist is now initial supp on a dip, must stay over or reverse fast, / if it can, 70 needs exceeded / held next . but if breaks 6800-67.50 area, then 65 next to hold or go to 62 or lower

(Jun 13-09:33) mike: 68.50 resist
(Jun 13-09:36) mike: 68.00supp needs held , push over 70
(Jun 13-09:40) mike: 69.00-68.50 pivotal supp need held
(Jun 13-09:46) mike: 70.25 needs held , 12000 dow cash
(Jun 13-09:51) mike: a decent pullback if 70.50 not held over

(Jun 13-10:00) mike: should go for 73 if no dbl top , must holds over 70
(Jun 13-10:03) mike: tops in, ounce should fail under 70 area
(Jun 13-10:07) mike: 70 rejected, 68 area big cluster, 20 and 60ema and 2 lows , a hold under 68 to hurt the market this morn
(Jun 13-10:15) mike: need a break over 70 to stick, its not, stay with shorts under that 70.25, if 68 breaks, to 66.50-66 area
(Jun 13-10:25) mike: reversal from 68 open area, 3rd try to get over 71 failed so far, 69 level now needs held to get thru 71 area
(Jun 13-10:39) mike: stuck in range, 68.00-67.50 pivotal, a break causes more trouble . 70-71 turning good resist
(Jun 13-10:51) mike: 67.50 held again, but still vulnerable , 2227 on nq needs exceeded
(Jun 13-10:57) mike: broke down, 65 area supp, follow nq

(Jun 13-11:05) mike: After the last update the ES bounced back to 1270 and the 1267.50 bottom of range was broken [lead by weaker NQ] and 1265 area or lower should be seen on this move as long as 1268.50 exceeded.

(Jun 13-11:14) mike: bounces have been 1.50-2.00 pts and with no gusto. need a better bounce to turn this around. , best chance is now
(Jun 13-11:15) mike: its 67.50 area now pivotal area here
(Jun 13-11:32) mike: 68.00 needs held here.
(Jun 13-11:44) mike: a 2-sided day with bounces unable to hold. bounces are shorts , follow NQ . 2223 area there needs exceeded/ held, its 68.50 area on ES
(Jun 13-11:51) mike: 64.50 area next supp, then friday lows, NQ would get there first

(Jun 13-12:09) mike: this bounce should die out here or near 67.50 area if there is another leg down.
(Jun 13-12:18) mike: 64.50 attempt to bounce, must hold that or its 62 area dbl bottom from friday
(Jun 13-12:18) mike: a short still under 67

(Jun 13-12:25) mike: the high was made 15 minutes in, failed a 2 mote tries at 71, and eventually broke 67.50 new support. bounces all sold in trend down move. stay with shorts to 62 or lower, it takes a break out over 66.50-67.00 area to hold on a dip to change this

(Jun 13-12:29) mike: 2215 on NQ was friday low, if that isn't held here, then 2207.00-2206.25 zone would be next decent supp there,
(Jun 13-12:31) mike: i need to be away for bout 45-60 minutes. lunchtime low attempt
 

(Jun 13-13:36) mike: key at 65.50, 63 needs held to stay outta trouble here
(Jun 13-13:46) mike: 66.00 and 2222 NQ both key resist
(Jun 13-13:47) mike: the 63.75-63.25 area needs held
(Jun 13-13:53) mike: 1258.25-1257.50 was just missed and looking below the surface, a decent low could be in. 64.50 good supp now, its pivotal now

(Jun 13-14:08) mike: 74.75 key above, 68.50 area needs defended. thats trend supp to hold
(Jun 13-14:11) mike: 70.00-69.50 trend supp, 1 min chart setup per ebook
(Jun 13-14:14) mike: 12000 is a good barrier needs pushed thru and held , not this time if 70.-00-69.50 area not held

(Jun 13-14:37) mike: mkt doesn't like it up there due to recent damage, but bought at lower prices as its more comfortable , the 66 area is pivotal supp area. NQ should still lead this around, but watch 66 area for potential short cover bounce

(Jun 13-15:00) mike: 123 / dbl top , a move down to 66.00 can occur, needs reversed fast
(Jun 13-15:10) mike: new range, but odds better on shorts around 70-71 area
(Jun 13-15:23) mike: 65.50 is a transition area from afternoon action, a close over that could get mkt out of trouble short term, beware of selling 70-71 area today still however
(Jun 13-15:40) mike: 64.50 is going to be tested it looks, need a bounce there or still in poor condition
(Jun 13-15:48) mike: 64.50 just missed. , have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday June 10, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 10-09:11) mike: in early going go by update. 77-76 key , then 72-71 is the big area - a pop to 81-82 to fill gap not likely early, if so its a gift short most likely. gap days on fridays can be bad days , trend day possible

(Jun 10-09:40) mike: 72-71 target 1, 76.50 area resist
(Jun 10-09:43) mike: key this morn is holding 2240 area on NQ
(Jun 10-09:46) mike: 76 area pivotal , needs cleared / held to avoid break dn to 72-71 or lower
(Jun 10-09:50) mike: 76 sold, 2247 on NQ key also
(Jun 10-09:57) mike: target 1 met, if short lock in partial profit 72.50 or better
(Jun 10-09:58) mike: 74 area resist, then 76 area the key today

(Jun 10-10:04) mike: 73.50 now trend resist
(Jun 10-10:10) mike: 1266 is next , 12000 dow cash breaks n no turn up fast
(Jun 10-10:14) mike: bounce from dow 12000, 71.50 resist, if exceeded then 73.50-74.00...... next.
(Jun 10-10:31) mike: 72.50 will need cleared / held or stays trend down
(Jun 10-10:32) mike: 1266 next supp
(Jun 10-10:34) mike: if 12000 area on dow cash breaks here and not turned up and get over 72.50 bad market action
(Jun 10-10:36) mike: tempting to get long at 12000 on dow, but a break can be hard. rather see trend reversed, still vulnerable
(Jun 10-10:37) mike: NQ weakness keeps it down
(Jun 10-10:43) mike: 70 area resist now, 66 is next target / NQ , again, a leader, was rolling over before ES caught up
(Jun 10-10:46) mike: 69.75 rejected. ''
last trapped'' per ebook should be good resist today
(Jun 10-10:49) mike: a pop to 70.50-71.00 is as far as a bounce should go to stay trend down. 2232 on NQ
(Jun 10-10:54) mike: 70 rejected, 68 turning good supp, a key supp now , needs held to another air pocket drop
(Jun 10-10:57) mike: 66 level, then 62 area under that

(Jun 10-11:00) mike: steady trend down, no capitulation but for a couple moves. the 66 level tested, last trapped here micro resist
(Jun 10-11:04) mike: bounce of over 2.50 ES points needed to break this downside grind, a 3.50 or more to dent the trend down day move. 62 area in the cards unless that occurs.
(Jun 10-11:08) mike: trailing stop to 68.50, that shouldn't be exceeded now, 62 target next
(Jun 10-11:13) mike: 66,50 now trend resist. if cleared, a short covering popup possible
(Jun 10-11:22) mike: a low in for now it looks, best bounce and breaks symmetry if 68.00 cleared. t
(Jun 10-11:31) mike: i need to be away for about 45 min. 66 area needs held or still trend down.

(Jun 10-12:25) mike: 65.50 bottom of channel, key, 68.75 top side
(Jun 10-12:26) mike: 69 on ES, 12000 DOW cash, 2230 NQ all need pushed over n held ,
(Jun 10-12:45) mike: 69 sold, a pop a short still
(Jun 10-12:56) mike: the pullback needed to break 67.25 to turn down again. should get out of channel soon, could see 70 tested then dip again , but 67.25 needs broken to put pressure on

(Jun 10-13:02) mike: bad pattern here and vulnerable under 70 level , 12000 dow cash
(Jun 10-13:15) mike: 3rd test of 65.225, should break
(Jun 10-13:16) mike: 66.75resist,
(Jun 10-13:19) mike: 66.75-67.00 should be sold if still going lower. 2226-27 area on NQ
(Jun 10-13:24) mike: 66.50 sold, nq stayed under 2226, still under pressure under those
(Jun 10-13:30) mike: a W type pattern, but 66.75 , 2226 needs pushed thru or still bearish
(Jun 10-13:36) mike: lows tested, but 62 is still possible , staying under 66.50 n 2226 NQ
(Jun 10-13:42) mike: 65 resist now, 66.50 bigger if cleared, 2226 on NQ the big one, trading NQ mostly today
(Jun 10-13:47) mike: 62.25 low so far, 64.50-65.00 area resist if bounce, or 58 area next
(Jun 10-13:56) mike: 61.75 met second target , if 64.50 area not exceeded, and the low is broken, then 58 area could yet be seen

(Jun 10-14:04) mike: 64.50 exceeded, low at 62 area could be a bottom , for a bit anyhow, 64.50 supp now
(Jun 10-14:09) mike: straight up to 12000 on dow. 66 area should hold on dip now
(Jun 10-14:22) mike: 66 area held, 123 top, if 69 not held / reversed fast if broken here
(Jun 10-14:34) mike: a range and holding 67.50 is good but not getting over the 12000, 1271, 2232 areas not good. 67 area needs defended on 3rd test

(Jun 10-14:42) mike: After the last update the ES reached the 1262 target / support and got turned up and the run up took Dow cash to 1200, NQ TO 2232, and ES to 1271 but backed off that resistance. It's still bearish under those areas, short squeeze if cleared. A test of lows should hold as a low could be in at 1262 area, if not 1258 possible.

(Jun 10-14:58) mike: could see 73.50 area if this stays over 70 area now

(Jun 10-15:01) mike: 73.50 met. thats pivotal above now. 70.50 area supp needs held now
(Jun 10-15:11) mike: i need to cut out early today, my apologies. a 123 type top possible to beware of. aside from that, not much. have a great weekend, see ya monday morn

 

 

Thursday June 09, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Jun 09-09:11) mike: looking for a 2 sided day, roll over today, the s/r numbers are for the September futures, ES U1. here are todays numbers again...

(Jun 09-09:11) mike: RESIST
1278.00-1279.00 - KEY
1281.50-1282.50
1284.50-1285.50

SUPPORT
1271.00-1270.00 -KEY
1266.50-1265.50
1262.50-1260.00
1258.50-1257.50
1252.50-1250.50

(Jun 09-09:33) mike: need to get over 78 n hold or to yest low
(Jun 09-09:35) mike: 73 supp1, then 71 is key , on Sept futures
(Jun 09-09:41) mike: 73.50 needs held to avoid bad break lower
(Jun 09-09:46) mike: nq lead
(Jun 09-09:50) mike: 76 area should / must hold on dip
(Jun 09-09:51) mike: need to get NQ over 2247 n hold that
(Jun 09-09:57) mike: 77.50 area needs held on dip for now

(Jun 09-10:02) mike: a good bid on dips, have to stay over 78 at worst to keep from potential trouble again.
(Jun 09-10:07) mike: 1281.50-1282.50 resist, but 1 min chart setup per ebook good trend supp, 79.75 area needs held now
(Jun 09-10:13) mike: over 80 ES stays trend up , if broken a dip should hold 78.25-77.50 or back in trouble
(Jun 09-10:17) mike: stalled out, 80 needs held . the ES vs NQ ot in sync

(Jun 09-10:22) mike: The higher open was sold but buying started at the 1273.50 area and a run up to 1282.50 resistance stalled out. The 1278.25-1277.50 is key on a pullback to avoid trouble now this morning.

(Jun 09-10:30) mike: 80 held so far, a break of that needed to turn this lower to 78.26-77.50 , NQ has resist at 2255 afternoon high yest


(Jun 09-10:33) mike: as long as 80.50 held , stays trend up. decent dips well bid ,


(Jun 09-10:35) mike: 1284.50-1285.50 is the last fixed resist for today. if thats blown thru, not rejected, then 88-89 is a major area today
(Jun 09-10:38) mike: 82 area sup on dip to stay trend up
(Jun 09-10:54) mike: 82.25 dip low was bought and new high, if more than 2 point dip the symmetry break , and keep higher low

(Jun 09-11:00) mike: lost momentum, next pop should fail, but high may be in
(Jun 09-11:04) mike: maybe not fail if NQ stays over 2253, gets over 256 n holds
(Jun 09-11:08) mike: nq topp, should drag es dn
(Jun 09-11:13) mike: 83 area resist
(Jun 09-11:13) mike: 2253-54 on NQ resist
(Jun 09-11:20) mike: rejected 83 no follow thru per last 5 days, those now need exceeded,
(Jun 09-11:27) mike: 83 and 2253 now key resist , 78.25-77.50 area key supp

(Jun 09-11:39) mike: the 20ema on 5 min chart acted as supp on that drop. it should be 2-sided choppy up move , as long as the 90.50 on ES and 2250 area on NQ as good supp, and test of high areas sold .

(Jun 09-11:41) mike: typo, corrected, as long as the 80.50 on ES and 2250 area on NQ as good supp,
(Jun 09-11:46) mike: with NQ moving more, and opposite the ES a number of times, its a tricky mkt up here. i'm trading NQ on shorts. ES if a long sets up.
(Jun 09-11:52) mike: 83 area now should be solid supp to buy.

(Jun 09-11:56) mike: this day should end up pretty big. 88.50 next key area above. the 92 area would be a major area on this oversold run up. stay with the trend , would need to break under 81 area to turn bad

(Jun 09-12:01) mike: should bounce off 85 to keep pressure on upside
(Jun 09-12:04) mike: 85.00 bid up. 85.00-84.50 a transition area, bullish unless broken now

(Jun 09-12:20) mike: After the last update the ES stayed trend up and reached 1287.50 so far, just shy of 1288.50 key area above. A pullback should hold the 1285 area to keep this going. If that is broken, then 1281 is major support.

(Jun 09-12:36) mike: remember, we are trading sept contract, ES U1 NQ U1 THE new symbol
(Jun 09-12:41) mike: key supp 84.50 = 20ema too
(Jun 09-12:58) mike: losing steam. a pop should be sold up here , 84.75 break level

(Jun 09-13:07) mike: its been a quite trend up day to this point. this pattern is one that could give another pop, but see buyers back off late and have a decent pullback. it turns down id 84.50 supp goes. 88.50 a key area above, will need exceeded / not reverses on a push higher if it gets up there

(Jun 09-13:09) mike: i need to be away an hour, ,, no reversal until 84.50 breaks, just don't be caufgr buying top

(Jun 09-14:25) mike: 85 held so still no reversal. no new high on dow yet, need to get over 88.500 now
(Jun 09-14:30) mike: sell nq 2260 good resist
(Jun 09-14:36) mike: tend move over, sell bounce if not short the last one
(Jun 09-14:42) mike: need a turn down here under 87.75 high
(Jun 09-14:49) mike: it looked like the dow was going to break and lead mkt lower, 85 area held. damage only when broken

(Jun 09-15:15) mike: mixed day. 88.50 stopped move so far, nq different animal
(Jun 09-15:19) mike: 88.50 and 2264 nq , good resist, and after recent carnage should back off r
(Jun 09-15:27) mike: 85 supp also 60ema , more important break
(Jun 09-15:33) mike: 87.00-87.50 resist now a sell
(Jun 09-15:41) mike: 85 goes, 78.25
(Jun 09-15:49) mike: 7825-77.50 target / supp
(Jun 09-15:53) mike: 81.00-80.50 supp, then 78.25 / lock in something if short
(Jun 09-15:53) mike: have a good day
 

 

Wednesday June 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 08-09:20) mike: off to doctors run thru the mill... , gone till late day. so can not update. go get em today

(Jun 08-12:17) mike: i am back but just for a little bit. the low was at key support at 1279.25-1278.50 zone, the 86.50 high was at 60ema on 5 min chart. the pullback hovered just over 80.50 , brought in shorts covering , the 86 high here again at 60 ema. this pullback has to get over and hold 86 to break out higher, or try to as it won't get far... , 83 area a pivotal support , must hold

(Jun 08-12:25) mike: NQ leading again it looks, was breaking dn ahead of ES. 2262 resist there, 84 ES
(Jun 08-12:37) mike: 81 must hold or trouble .
(Jun 08-12:50) mike: 84 rejected. it needs cleared/ held on a dip

(Jun 08-13:01) mike: 85 = 60ema , 3rd test , to get thru 84 needs held on dip
(Jun 08-13:04) mike: the dips have been bought, the bounces sold, this is key to push thru , not fail again...
(Jun 08-13:14) mike: another failure at 86 area, now 80.50 area needs bid up. the 83 has been pivotal in between
(Jun 08-13:24) mike: i need to go for rest of the day / the mkt stays bearish unless 86 on ES and 2266 area on NQ both cleared // held

 

 

Tuesday June 07, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 07-09:16) mike: the 93.00 area is 2nd fixed resist, a pullback needs to hold the 1289.75-1288.75 zone.
(Jun 07-09:37) mike: long off supp a scalp only
(Jun 07-09:50) mike: 91.50-92.00 needs cleared to get upside in gear, its vulnerable still for deeper drop unless held on bounce

(Jun 07-10:03) mike: 88.50 is the key spot this morning, it was / is transition level to upside. , 20ema on 5 min chart there too. its the bull/ bear line in the sand today. 1292.50-1293.00 needs cleared/ held to keep this up

(Jun 07-10:10) mike: at resist, 91 needs held
(Jun 07-10:15) mike: 91.50 trend supp now
(Jun 07-10:19) mike: 94.25 resist then 1297.50-1298.25 big this morn , 92 area needs held
(Jun 07-10:25) mike: 92 held, a 123 top possible tho up here
(Jun 07-10:37) mike: The ES opened up almost 7 points at 1291.75, then dipped to 1289.50 (1289.75-1288.75 pivotal area). A bounce up to just under the 1292.50-1293.00 resistance was sold again, and the ES pulled back to 1288.25 before turning up. A trend move up to 1293.75 was sold to 1291, and that needs held as does 2280 on the NQ, or a high this morning.

(Jun 07-10:40) mike: oversold rally in gear, dips should hold , 95.50 resist, 97.50-98.50 area bigger resist

(Jun 07-10:49) mike: 91 area now very key, a cluster on numbers there. a wedge / channel pattern breaks if not defended too. 93 area needs defended to keep move going or it could break to that area

(Jun 07-10:56) mike: choppy uptrend, it gets a break lower if no pop up off 93 area

(Jun 07-11:03) mike: looks like a high similar to yest
(Jun 07-11:05) mike: wedge broke, 93.25 the break resist on a pop up. 91 a major intraday supp
(Jun 07-11:11) mike: 93.25 sold 1st attempt, needs exceeded / held to avoid more downside to test 91 or so

(Jun 07-11:14) mike: After the last update the ES stayed over 1291.00 and rallied to 1294.75 before reversing. The 1293.25 level sold on bounce and needs exceeded/ held to avoid more downside up here.

(Jun 07-11:25) mike: 93.25 still resist, 91.50-91.00 needs fast reversal up
(Jun 07-11:25) mike: or mkt breaking down to 90.25 at the least

(Jun 07-11:34) mike: oversold bounce is over for now. the 88.50 area is key to stay over, bounce off of, to avoid deeper drop and transition lower again . 92 area resist to clear/ hold to try to get out of downtrends

(Jun 07-11:39) mike: i need to be away for about an hour , a mkt that can not make good out of deep oversold conditions is in poor shape for sure. the 88.50 area held so far, still key area or 84 or lower possible yet. 92 area needs exceeded/ held to get pressure off. see you in an hour or so

(Jun 07-12:41) mike: just chop since i was away. bernanke speaks in a bit. follow NQ its leading
(Jun 07-12:59) mike: a dip back to 90.00-88.50 area should hold now , as long as that holds the bulls in charge for now

(Jun 07-13:08) mike: a dip now to 92.--91.50 needs held
(Jun 07-13:21) mike: 91.50 area needs bid up, or 90 test again, 2278 on NQ supp needs held to
(Jun 07-13:29) mike: need a pop from here soon
(Jun 07-13:30) mike: lower high intraday so far, 94.75 needs exceeded
(Jun 07-13:39) mike: we got the pop from just over 91.50 supp, need another push thru 94 or still vulnerable , 92.50 mini supp must hold here

(Jun 07-13:39) mike: After the last update the ES rolled over and fell to 1289.25 before turning up. The 1293.75 bounce high was a lower high and needs exceeded to march higher. Holding the 1291.50 area is needed to keep the bounce alive and avoid a move back under 1290 before getting turned up again.

(Jun 07-13:54) mike: 91.50 defended so far. now must push higher thru 94 area soon to get out of this range, or another break towards 89.00-88.50 key area

(Jun 07-14:06) mike: mkt still bullish as long as 92 area holds
(Jun 07-14:07) mike: nq leading the way, 82-81 area supp there
(Jun 07-14:11) mike: 94.75 testes, need to hold 93.50 area to get thru that
(Jun 07-14:13) mike: 1297.50-1298.25 key on next push up
(Jun 07-14:18) mike: 93.75 shouldn't break now , follow NQ LEAD
(Jun 07-14:21) mike: 95 OR BETTER EXIT ON LONGS. AT LEAST PART WITH TRAIL STOP ON REST
(Jun 07-14:22) mike: sorry re caps. 96.25 a good resist in front of 97.50-98.50 area
(Jun 07-14:30) mike: a 1.50 point dip held so far, its 93.35 as far as a dip can go or this move topped for a bit
(Jun 07-14:34) mike: bounce here should fail around 94.00-94.50 max now if going lower
(Jun 07-14:50) mike: 1 point dip off 94.25 resist so far, 92 needs held or it could break lower ,
(Jun 07-14:57) mike: 90.00-88.50 next supp. if short the pop to 94.25 area , 93 needs cleared / held now but cover part at least

(Jun 07-15:02) mike: if 93.75 exceeded, a dip a buy then. a fake out unless/ until

(Jun 07-15:15) mike: i need to be away the last 30 minutes, bernanke speech starts with 15 minutes left i guess. should be active after hours. 88.50 area still should be the key supp below. if a run-up happens, 97.50-98.50 area the resist area to watch for sellers

(Jun 07-15:25) mike: 1.50-2.25 point bounces sold. trend down stays intact until that pace broken. have a great rest of the day

 

 

Monday- June 06, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 06-09:19) mike: 97.50 1st key resist, its still bearish under... if not sold then 1302.25-1302.75 the first big resist. 94.50 should be tested, if no reversal the 92 overnight low or a bit lower


(Jun 06-09:43) mike: 94.50 area on a break of 95.50
(Jun 06-09:48) mike: 94.50-94.00 test


(Jun 06-09:58) mike: pressure on unless 95.50 exceeded / held now. NQ would need break of 2292 area, its switched to stronger index,


(Jun 06-10:09) mike: 95.00-95.50 a pivotal resist now , 1288.25-1287.75 is next supp, must be reversed


(Jun 06-10:16) mike: 93.50 trend resist , then 95 area if exceeded


(Jun 06-10:26) mike: The ES opened flat and after a bounce to 1298.25 was reversed another grind lower started and the 1290 level met. If a bounce holds over 1293 then 1295.50 would be next and is pivotal today. If not exceeded, then 1288.25-1287.75 could still be tested.

(Jun 06-10:30) mike: a pullback should be bought here 93.00-92.50 to have low in


(Jun 06-10:42) mike: the dbl top on NQ at 2296-97 area put a damper on a bounce, s short still under it


(Jun 06-10:52) mike: small dbl bottom, but mkt not acting well still .


(Jun 06-10:58) mike: 20ems on 5 min chart a downtrend guide, its at 93.75 area, needs pushed thru n held or just another feeble bounce


(Jun 06-11:06) mike: there has been decent buying on 3 tests of 90.50-90.00 , it needs defended, if broken then one more push lower towards the 87 area. 93.75 area resist still


(Jun 06-11:14) mike: top of range for NQ, a pullback should hold the lows for now, 93.00-92.50 area supp to keep it going


(Jun 06-11:21) mike: After the last update the ES tested 1294 and reversed. A drop to 1290.25 was reversed, making a double bottom around the 1290.50 support. A test of 1293 needs held try to break out of the morning range and move higher, if not then a break of the 1290 area is not good and 1287 area still possible.

(Jun 06-11:27) mike: 93 held so far, its pivotal on bottom , 95.50 on top, for now mkt out of trouble as long as 94 held up to 97.50 dynamic resist now


(Jun 06-11:41) mike: ES held at 94.50 , the pop up just missed 97.50. that area needs cleared soon, 94.50 needs held or a reversal dn


(Jun 06-11:44) mike: less momentum on last 3 small pushes higher, can roll over if 95.50 not exceeded


(Jun 06-12:00) mike: a quick note on the internal gauges, i updated my spreadsheet to see what they'd look like if closed like this. would have extremes on most similar to other lows, several Trin buy sigs, just missing any Vix sell sigs but would be close. the pattern and action so far, it should just give 2 sided action , mkt should struggle to hold rallies, but if one more push lower there should be good buying / shorts covering. to avoid 1 more push lower, 94.00 area needs held still on dip


(Jun 06-12:09) mike: buyers held 94.00, key, dbl top now at 96.00-96.25 needs pushed thru to keep upside going n not reverse


(Jun 06-13:12) mike: After the last update the ES made a little double top at 1296 area and rolled over. Two sided action is likely, or a drop to 1288.25-1287.75 area still possible before the market finds a bottom and buyers return to play an oversold bounce.

(Jun 06-13:18) mike: a pullback should hold over 93.75 to keep going. 96 area also line up w/ 60ema on 5 min chart for key resist above, buyers should back off there


(Jun 06-13:24) mike: could bounce again, but not stick.
(Jun 06-13:41) mike: trend dn to test/ break lows under 92.50-9300
(Jun 06-13:41) mike: 2291 nq


(Jun 06-13:48) mike: 1288.25-1287.75 test, should see 84 area if that goes. 91.00-91.75 area bounce resist


(Jun 06-13:53) mike: failed so far... i need to be away for about 60 minutes, back near 3pm. my apologies. that supp very key today, 84 area if broken n not reversed fast , a scalp long on reversal, but dont overstay ,


(Jun 06-15:08) mike: need to get over 88.50, hold, or trend dn intact


(Jun 06-15:14) mike: 1279.25-1278.50 in the morning, or last hour, before a good bounce. 86.50 area resist


(Jun 06-15:33) mike: 84..25 now needs held, a low can be in late
(Jun 06-15:48) mike: the 88.50 supp now key to clear, hold on dip. not today it looks

 

 

Friday- June 03, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 03-09:17) mike: 94 area supp, then 1290.50 is a major area. 1302.50 area first resist. the 10-11 area a rock for resist . still not time to buy. bounces should fail
(Jun 03-09:27) mike: 98.area resist 1.
(Jun 03-09:46) mike: 98 needs held, 02.50 resist
(Jun 03-09:51) mike: high in for now
(Jun 03-09:54) mike: 98 area is key now to break . 2304 nq


(Jun 03-10:00) mike: last night I said "The NQ would need to get to the 2300.50-
2298.50 zone to test that support, and should before this sell off is over." 2300.25 low there, thats key to hold, a break is bad news

(Jun 03-10:05) mike: 02.50 area met, 04.25 fill gap on daily chart. a drop needs hold 1300 now
(Jun 03-10:08) mike: a channel / wedge break if 1300 breaks , a pop should fail


(Jun 03-10:14) mike: The ES gapped down 16.50 points and reversed, and the 1300.50-1300.00 area held on a dip. The downside target was met with the NQ getting to 2330.25 per last night's update. That 1300.50-1300.00 area needs held or market still in trouble.

(Jun 03-10:18) mike: 00.50 held but should break towards 98 if 02 not exceeded/ held here
(Jun 03-10:23) mike: 98 still in the cards unless 02 cleared


(Jun 03-10:30) mike: good bid just under 1300. the ES filled gap on daily chart, a pullback a scalp long, if held around 1302 area


(Jun 03-10:38) mike: 03.50 needs held to stay trend up. it changes if broken


(Jun 03-10:45) mike: After the last update the ES quickly reversed up from just under 1300 and has been trend up so far. The 1303.50 area now trend up support. A test of 1308.50 should reverse, if not then the 1310-1311 should be strong resistance.

(Jun 03-10:51) mike: lost momentum, bids dried up. a pop to 08.50 should get sold. if high not in
(Jun 03-10:57) mike: 12200 on dow cash was also rejected. the 03.50 held , but next bounce should be a short


(Jun 03-11:05) mike: 03.50 really key now, a ledge/ wedge will break. short under highs
(Jun 03-11:18) mike: 03.50-04.25 area resist now/ nq is bad shape


(Jun 03-11:32) mike: choppy, stall/reversal from 04.50... 01.50 bounce, but 1300 next if not exceeded , nq should lead


(Jun 03-11:48) mike: 1301 tested, the 1300 area should get quickly bought up to avoid test of low. the NQ acting worse, should be leader , 2305 key there, as is 1300.


(Jun 03-11:59) mike: After the last update the ES reversed at 1307.50, then dropped back to test the 1301 level. Choppy action, but a move to the 1306.50 area should be sold to stay in this choppy range, otherwise a push towards 1310-1311 [long shot of that happening] could occur. If 1301 breaks, then a test of 1295.50-1294.50 possible.

(Jun 03-12:02) mike: i need to be away for 60-90 minutes. 03.50-03.00 pivotal on dip.


(Jun 03-13:14) mike: ES bounced better than thought, but 10-11 just missed was sold. NQ still very weak. to keep upside going 06 on ES, 2309 on NQ must hold


(Jun 03-13:21) mike: since 08.50 was poked over n reversed, should be a decent high for day. 05.50 must reverse up or problems up here


(Jun 03-13:35) mike: back in trouble, high around 08.50 weak NQ leads this to test 2305 key, if broken, a washout lower


(Jun 03-13:39) mike: NQ needs to get over 2309.50 n stick. ES needs back thru 1306.


(Jun 03-13:50) mike: if not for the Nasdaq being stuck and not able to even rally much, and a Vix down 4percent, this would be a bullish day. indicators oversold, a deeper drop may be a buy, but not interested in buying here on friday afternoon , rally or not. a scalp maybe if test of 03.50-03.00 area if reached...


(Jun 03-14:01) mike: this is why no buying, 03 small supp, 05-06 is very good resist now.
(Jun 03-14:09) mike: bounce off 03.00 fails, 04.50 needs cleared / held on dip


(Jun 03-14:20) mike: symmetry on the drops. 04.50 needs pushed thru, if so next dip should hold , 1301 should be worst case today to avoid trouble,


(Jun 03-14:25) mike: 1301 won't be worst case if this stair step dn continues... 01.25 level looks key below


(Jun 03-14:33) mike: still a short under 2306 nq, 04.25 ES, 99.50 possible if 04.25 not cleared /
(Jun 03-14:40) mike: 99.50 was reversed fast this morn, its a symmetry level too n must reverse there. cover shorts area 1300.00-1299.50 ,


(Jun 03-14:45) mike: 2300.25 low on NQ on open and a key supp. low at 2;23pm, just outside reversal timeframe. should hold , or mkt in big trouble. 99.50 probably not to be seen now, but could.


(Jun 03-15:00) mike: whoa, 99.50 reached, its not done
(Jun 03-15:01) mike: a 2.50 pt bounce should fail
(Jun 03-15:03) mike: 01.50-02.00 resist on bounce from 99.50, 94 area if low breaks
(Jun 03-15:05) mike: the NQ , nasdaq much weaker all day and better short still
(Jun 03-15:10) mike: 12100 dow cash is key below. still need a 2.50 point bounce to break the rhythm
(Jun 03-15:19) mike: amazing how horrible Nasdaq is, 2288 a key area there
(Jun 03-15:25) mike: 99.50 now pivotal end of day
(Jun 03-15:28) mike: i need to be away the last 30 minutes, nothing bullish about this but an oversold bounce likely early next week. have a great weekend
 

 

Thursday- June 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 02-09:21) mike: 20EMA on 5 min chart at 16.00 and key in first 5-10 min. 1317.50-1318.00 then if trend broken.
(Jun 02-09:26) mike: 13.25-13.00 was closing range yest, 1st micro supp
(Jun 02-09:38) mike: 1317.50-1318.00 stays key resist early
(Jun 02-09:40) mike: 17.75 overnight high too. stops just over that area.
(Jun 02-09:40) mike: 12.50 key to break/ hold under
(Jun 02-09:44) mike: 13.25-13.75 now key on a bounce ,
(Jun 02-09:47) mike: 1308.25-1307.50 target
(Jun 02-09:48) mike: supp reached, its bearish still under 12.50-13.25 area still
(Jun 02-09:54) mike: 13.50 was the break dn area, its pivotal now , 2329 on NQ

(Jun 02-10:02) mike: 13.25 pivotal level
(Jun 02-10:07) mike: need a push thru 1317.50-1318.00
(Jun 02-10:11) mike: another push higher if 14 not broken , keep an eye on NQ, its leading on upside
(Jun 02-10:17) mike: top, pattern, a bounce here should fail , 123 top possible
(Jun 02-10:37) mike: if this doesn't fail at 16 , a move to 20.50 possible but then sold up there. 14 area needs held or it rolls over again
(Jun 02-10:42) mike: 17 dbl top, could roll over on break of 14.50 area
(Jun 02-10:49) mike: 17 sold, 14.50 key to hold or roll over again.
(Jun 02-10:52) mike: 17 shouldnt be exceeded now w/o being sold
(Jun 02-10:57) mike: 15 shouldnt be cleared / held , or it can push a bit higher , its vulnerable under that

(Jun 02-11:10) mike: bounced from 12 area once, not this time, 13.50 -14.00 resist now
(Jun 02-11:18) mike: 12.50-13.00 resist now, should be sold but if by chance its exceeded/ held then a bump up towards 15.50 area should be sold... i'll be back in 60 minutes or so.

(Jun 02-12:36) mike: wedge break if 07 breaks
(Jun 02-12:44) mike: mkt trying to firm up, but a run up to 10.50 needs pushed thu
(Jun 02-12:53) mike: 09.50-08.75 supp now on dip should hold, 1313 is key, cluster and 60ema on 5 min

(Jun 02-13:02) mike: 10.50-10.00 supp on dip, must hold there
(Jun 02-13:08) mike: 13 area sold, 11.50 trend supp must hold or test lower levels

(Jun 02-13:15) mike: After the last update the ES stayed under 1313 and broke down to 1304.50 before bouncing back to the 1313.50 area again. That is pivotal, must be cleared/ held to avoid test of lows and try for 1317.00-1317.50 key resistance.

(Jun 02-13:35) mike: 2 failures at 13.50 resist, it needs a turn up around here, 10.50, and not break it or back to test lows before a bounce
(Jun 02-13:39) mike: 11.50 needs cleared / held now, 2325 on NQ or to test lows

(Jun 02-13:50) mike: about middle of day range, not able to get over 13.50 key resist. a test of lows likely gets bought, but its still vulnerable and can get there iff no push thru 13.50 soon

(Jun 02-13:56) mike: should turn back dn here, its a buy on a dip now , 10 should hold.

(Jun 02-14:02) mike: 13.50-12.50 as far as a dip should go now
(Jun 02-14:11) mike: a scalp if you bought dip to supp. 15.00-15.50 r here
(Jun 02-14:15) mike: choppy, but 13 should be good supp now
(Jun 02-14:20) mike: a reminder i guess that its still a bear. should be choppy in front of jobs number tomorrow
(Jun 02-14:32) mike: 2323 on NQ key to hold, 10.50 on ES ,

(Jun 02-14:43) mike: bounces not sticking. last 80 minutes, as long as 13 holds the mkt ok, if broken then those 1310 and 2323 levels must be defended to avoid bad close. on top, 16.50-17.50 is strong and very key resist to get thru

(Jun 02-15:03) mike: 16.50 sold, 14.50 now needs defended or reversal down
(Jun 02-15:19) mike: need to sling-shot back up if 1313 tested. being flat in front of tomorrow's data
(Jun 02-15:27) mike: no go, 14.50 resist end of day now
(Jun 02-15:41) mike: have a good rest of the day.
(Jun 02-15:53) mike: 10.50-10.00 key on close.
(Jun 02-15:54) mike: a bad mkt, 1650-17.50 the big hurdle in morning

 

 

 

Wednesday- June 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jun 1, 2011 9:24 mike: the 48 area topped it overnight, 43-44 good resist before that area. ISM index at 10am. lots of poor econ data out in the last 2 weeks. 1337.50-1336.75 the pivotal area per last night pre open low, must hold... still the bounces, they should fail if not at 42-43 [or lower], then around 48 resist odds are very good

Jun 1, 2011 9:38 mike: 41 should be a high if weak this morn , nq needs reversed
Jun 1, 2011 9:40 mike: 41 key to get over and hold . nq holding it up for now
Jun 1, 2011 9:46 mike: 40.75 bounce high, still key, 37.50-36.25 major supp this morn
Jun 1, 2011 9:52 mike: 39.50 resist now
Jun 1, 2011 9:56 mike: 37.75 low so far, if short take partial profit 38 or better ., tighten stop
Jun 1, 2011 9:58 mike: 39.50 resist still on a pop up
Jun 1, 2011 10:01 mike: 37.50-38 resist now , avoid longs
Jun 1, 2011 10:07 mike: 2369-2370 on NQ key there on bounce, 37.50-38.00 ES. the 1333.25-1332.50 key supp now to break thru . not good if its broken

Jun 1, 2011 10:13 mike: The ES opened lower, then the 1341.00-1340.50 initial support turned resistance and the market dropped hard to 1331.25 so far. There could be a bounce from lower levels, but it would just set up another short today if not in already. The 1336.50 is still pivotal today.

Jun 1, 2011 10:18 mike: 33.50 trend resist , good momentum move, use 1 min chart setup per ebook as guide until broken
Jun 1, 2011 10:25 mike: 33.50 cleared, 33 needs held on a dip or next bounce should be sold
Jun 1, 2011 10:28 mike: mkt acting poorly again, need a bounce with gusto. focus on shorts, bounces shouldn't stick
Jun 1, 2011 10:29 mike: under 36.00-36.50 this mkt in trouble
Jun 1, 2011 10:38 mike: NQ lead the move up, the 2357 area was its transition area higher yesterday when ES was at 36.75 area, a break there can start a move towards 2346.50 area there...

(Jun 01-10:43) mike: early short at 41 area covered part at 38 area, trailing stop, 3.00 points on ES for now. 1328.25-1327.25 the next good supp, cover there
(Jun 01-10:47) mike: 31.50 now resist
(Jun 01-10:48) mike: flat now. 31 area resist now, a 2.50-3.00 point bounce should fail
(Jun 01-10:51) mike: 30.50-31.50 the key resist now. trend down move unless broken
(Jun 01-10:54) mike: mkt ugly weak. 12400 Dow cash met, that is psych supp, but could see 22 area if this continues / 29.75 a resist now

(Jun 01-11:03) mike: 29 needs held or test of lows likely

(Jun 01-11:11) mike: feeble bounce , an NQ weaker. still see holding 29 as key this morn, but the better the bounce, better shorting opportunity when the move stalls out again the way this is acting.

(Jun 01-11:11) mike: After the last update a bounce to 1334.25 failed and a hard drop to 1326.75 low so far followed. That was also at 12400 on Dow cash. To break the downside momentum, the 1331 level is needed, even then the market is vulnerable as the 1336 area will need cleared and then held on a dip.

(Jun 01-11:13) mike: i need to be away about 60-90 minutes. make or break here it looks . see you in a bit
(Jun 01-12:18) mike: trend day, 22.50 next supp, 18.50 under
(Jun 01-12:23) mike: 22.50 just missed, 26.50 good resist
(Jun 01-12:42) mike: 27.50-28.25 area trend resist now, a low in for a bit, but ES just missed 22.50 and NQ fills gap on daily chart at 2338.50 , 2339.10 on Nasdaq 100 cash [$NDX] to fill

(Jun 01-12:50) mike: After the last update the ES bounced to 1331.75, but quickly reversed and broke down to 1323.00 low so far. This is a trend day, and bounces are not going to stick. The NQ has a gap to fill at 2338.50 , 2339.10 on the Nasdaq 100 cash ($NDX) and 1322.50 key on the ES.

(Jun 01-12:51) mike: 12400 area on dow cash now psych resist

(Jun 01-13:07) mike: the tick went from -900 to +500, back to zero. a nervous mkt dn here, 24-23 needs a fast turn up or a lower low. otherwise 27.50-28.25 still key on bounce and should be sold.

(Jun 01-13:15) mike: theres the 22.50, still ugly with lots of supply to get thru above, 18.50 should be next , 24 resist
(Jun 01-13:19) mike: 23.75 was rejected, up to 25 area max now it looks
(Jun 01-13:23) mike: very bearish still under 24 resist. 18.50 or lower next
(Jun 01-13:23) mike: 2338.50 on NQ at least
(Jun 01-13:29) mike: gap filled.
(Jun 01-13:30) mike: 22.00-22.50 trend resist now
(Jun 01-13:32) mike: mission accomplished for the bears , still tho is in trouble, a bounce to 22.50 area key now
(Jun 01-13:36) mike: failure, watch 20.75 , must hold there or 18.50 yet
(Jun 01-13:39) mike: 23.50-24.00 the key area now.
(Jun 01-13:40) mike: pullback should hold 22.00-21.50 or its going lower
(Jun 01-13:43) mike: to test 18.50 then before trying to turn around.
(Jun 01-13:46) mike: 23.50-24.00 needs pushed thru, held. its key trend resist

(Jun 01-14:03) mike: 23.50 area has been hard to get thru. if cleared, then some pressure is off, still trend day unless 23.50 cleared/ held on a dip
(Jun 01-14:18) mike: lows bought, dbl bottom will break if 22 not cleared
(Jun 01-14:25) mike: 22 cleared, not held need a move over 23.50 area to stick to get turned up here.
(Jun 01-14:30) mike: the high made in first 15 minutes, has been a trend day , if 23.50 not cleared / held then a low should come in last 15 minutes. this more than a 1 day deal
(Jun 01-14:32) mike: 18.50 a support, shouldn't matter much, the 14.00-12.50 is the next big area below

(Jun 01-14:39) mike: 2.00-2.50 point bounces are sold. as long as that pace continues, to 14.00-12.50 zone or the 3:45pm - 4pm timeframe . if that symmetry breaks, then things could change end of day

(Jun 01-14:50) mike: 20 area key now. , pops still sold but short covering can start if 20 exceeded
(Jun 01-14:56) mike: symmetry broken, a low could be in for today, possibly, but there won't be much upside before getting sold again.
(Jun 01-14:57) mike: watch 20ema on 5 min chart, a good guide on these days. 1321.25 resist there.
(Jun 01-15:06) mike: i need to be away the last hour here. that 21.25 looking important going into close. looks like 19 area needs held to not test lows. see you in the morning here.

 

 

 

Tuesday- May 31, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 31-09:14) mike: 1342.25-1343.00 listed resist , and 44.50 was last bounce high on 5/19. mkt should back off that area, 40 area needs held on pullback. 2 econ releases in first 30 min. should be volatile early especially

(May 31-09:37) mike: resist sold, 42.25 key early here,
(May 31-09:42) mike: 43 key now
(May 31-09:44) mike: 39.00-38.25 supp 1 now
(May 31-09:48) mike: 42 ''last trapped'' resist needs cleared / held
(May 31-09:53) mike: vulnerable under 43 area
(May 31-09:56) mike: consumer confidence in 3 minutes
(May 31-09:59) mike: 39.50-38.50 small supp
(May 31-10:02) mike: target met, 40.50 resist , a sell

(May 31-10:11) mike: The ES gapped up almost 13 points and was reversed from just over the 1343.00 resistance and dropped to 1338.00 so far. Unless 1340.50-1341.00 is cleared/ held we can go trend down towards 1333-1332 area before a good bounce occurs.

(May 31-10:14) mike: 40.50 area ES, 2358 area NQ the key resist this morn now
(May 31-10:20) mike: a 2.25 point bounce failed, then a 2.00 pt bounce failed. need a better bounce to try to stop trend move to 33-32 area
(May 31-10:28) mike: 38.50 now trend resist, 33-32 the first big supp, 12500 on Dow cash . small at 35.50 area
(May 31-10:36) mike: 35.75 low , 1 tick over 35.50 small supp. 38.75 now resist , 33-32 still likely unless 38 area exceeded / held
(May 31-10:42) mike: trying to base to get bounce going, must clear 38 area / stick over 37.50 if it is
(May 31-10:51) mike: fail under 38 keeps pressure on, 33-32 area

(May 31-10:58) mike: a small reaction off 12500 on Dow Cash [ $INDU ], 3 TESTS OF 35.50 SUPP, a break there needed soon to go for 33-32 area 38 area still needed exceeded/ held to get pressure off ,

(May 31-11:01) mike: After the last update a pop to 1340.00 was sold and a new low made at 1335.75 so far. This stays trend down unless 1338 area exceeded/ held then on a dip.

(May 31-11:17) mike: a tiny range between 38 resist, 35.75 small supp. need a breakout over 38 to stick, NQ needs to confirm move , 2354-55 area resist there
(May 31-11:35) mike: 4 tests 35.75 held. a dip should hold that , 37 area on a dip
(May 31-11:39) mike: i be away about 60-90 minutes. only a hold ovr 38 gets upside going here
(May 31-12:41) mike: solid resist 36-37 now. 33-32 in cards , still trend down day under 36.75 area
(May 31-12:56) mike: 5 bounces of 2.00-2.50 points on ES, 35.75 the 6th one. need to break that symmetry to try to get turned around for a bit

(May 31-13:03) mike: After the last update the ES went sideways for more than an hour, poking to 1338.25 before reversing and going to a lower low at 1333.50 so far. The 1332 area can still be tested this afternoon and stays trend down unless a break/ hold over 1336 area now. Even then, the market is toppy and overbought and don't expect a move to stick over 1340 on the ES unless 1332 is reached and then gets bid up with some gusto.

(May 31-13:17) mike: best bounce all day... 36.00-35.75 needs held now. if 35.50 tested, trend / wedge would break next bounce should fail.
(May 31-13:24) mike: 36 held, its key to stay over , 38 area key above, 36 holds or another washout to test/ break the lows
(May 31-13:28) mike: toppy, the 36 level about equal to 12500 on the dow cash, key to stay above or channel/ wedge breaks

(May 31-13:56) mike: 36.50 held and kept mkt out of trouble. 39.50-40.50 strong resist. if 36.50 now can hold, mkt averts another reversal but not much more upside unless 39.50-40.50 pushed thru up here

(May 31-13:59) mike: the gaps on ES, SPX, Dow cash all filled on daily charts today, not NQ or semi-conductors [SOX] today. that still should be tested before a better pullback low occurs. the internal gauges will stay overbought, but with negative divergences. could be the 4th day in a rw for more than 2000 advancing issues on NYSE too. end of month strength should be sold near 40, if not this runs towards 44.50 to reverse up there

(May 31-14:15) mike: wedge / channel support around 37.25 level. 2357 on NQ
(May 31-14:26) mike: After the last update the ES had a break/ hold over 1336 area and reached 1339.00, which should be a bounce high, especially if the 1336.50 transition level is broken.
(May 31-14:31) mike: s short up here 39-40 good resist rejected
(May 31-14:44) mike: 36.50 did hold on the dip. a test of 37.50 needs held to avoid a break lower
(May 31-14:48) mike: a move to 39.50-40.50 on ES , 2362.50-63.50 on NQ needs pushed thru. buyers backing off,

(May 31-15:02) mike: the 39 level was sold and mkt churning since, this has a problem if 39 is the bounce high, 36.50-36.00 give transition to dnside again
(May 31-15:06) mike: a strong mkt would stop and run up from here... not going to do it and stick
(May 31-15:16) mike: if NQ can stick over 2357, the mkt ok to bounce again
(May 31-15:18) mike: no longs here
(May 31-15:19) mike: strong resist just above, indicators in sell territory, end of month bounce gets sold into
(May 31-15:24) mike: i need to be away a bit, looks like as long as 36.50 is held, no damage done. but this move needs a close over the 39 level to look better, 2362 on NQ. see you i the morning

 

 

Friday- May 27, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 27-09:24) mike: 27 area now supp, but good selling on any pop now
(May 27-09:27) mike: 1330.50-1331.00 ES, 2331.50-2332.50 NQ key above
(May 27-09:36) mike: not much more upside , 27major this morn
(May 27-09:46) mike: 31.00 rejection, 29.25 needs held. , econ data in 9 min
(May 27-09:48) mike: 1332.75-1333.50 key up here, 30 supp, pivotal, should hold if strong
(May 27-09:51) mike: top if 30 area broken, not reversed fast
(May 27-09:56) mike: good data, 1 more release in about 3 min

(May 27-10:01) mike: high in
(May 27-10:02) mike: 27 area will need a good bounce or bad mkt
(May 27-10:04) mike: no gusto, still a short under 30 now
(May 27-10:05) mike: 29.50-29.75 shouldnt be exceeded on bounce from 27 supp
(May 27-10:10) mike: 24.75 next
(May 27-10:14) mike: the bounce stopped 2 ticks under new resist, pressure on unless 29.25-29.75 exceeded / held now
(May 27-10:23) mike: 29.00 sold, need stay under n break of 27.50 to roll over tho now
(May 27-10:29) mike: 27.50 held, 29.75 rejected.... NQ is strong so far, 28.25 now needs held to push higher.

(May 27-10:38) mike: The ES opened higher and rallied to 1332.00 before
making a 123 top at 10AM. The pullback reached the
1327 target/ new support and so far bounced back. A
hold over 1330 is needed to avoid more downside. If
1330 holds then 1332.75-1333.50 is tested again.

(May 27-10:41) mike: 28.25 held so far, need a hold over 30 to get upside going n not fail again
(May 27-10:49) mike: 29.50 should hold to keep grind up going and not to out here

(May 27-10:57) mike: 29.50 held, still trend up. holiday upside bias so far. a note of caution however, i ran the numbers in my spreadsheet, a close with internals and the vix where they are, a number of overbought extremes will be present.. a high not too far away

(May 27-11:03) mike: 1332.75-1333.50 could give a dip, but hold 31 area
(May 27-11:09) mike: 2337.50-2338.50 on NQ also sold. 2335.50 trend supp there on dip
(May 27-11:22) mike: 32 looks key, still 2335.50 on NQ. trend up move going, but if broken, then it gets a decent dip
(May 27-11:27) mike: sell a pop up here
(May 27-11:30) mike: 33 good resist on bounce, 30.50-30.00 on dnside. need NQ to break 2335.50 to do break that trend
(May 27-11:34) mike: 1332.75-1333.50 on ES and 2337.50-2338.50 on NQ are sell zones with tigt stops just above
(May 27-11:42) mike: 30.50 area tested, a good bullish mkt would take off to upside again. but no go. dbl tops at resist to be traded against

(May 27-12:02) mike: After the last update the market reached the 1332.75-1333.50 resistance on the ES and the 2337.50-2338.50 zone on the NQ and then backe off. The 1330.50-1330.00 trend support did hold, and is key support now, but beware of another rejection at resistance. This move can reverse if those resistance zones not cleared and can hold this afternoon.

(May 27-12:05) mike: even more rejection on resist, should be a top, internal gauges very overbought as they are , a close like this still is bearish

(May 27-12:10) mike: i need to be away for an hour or so, my apologies its doctors orders and i'm overdoing it as is. 30area holding, but a bounce to 32 area good resist and a good short it appears... back in a bit

(May 27-13:20) mike: 2336-37 on nq resist to sell, 31.00-31.50 ES
(May 27-13:39) mike: if you shorted NQ ar 2335-2337 zone cover part, stop to break-even
(May 27-13:41) mike: typo, 2335-37 was the zone, 36.25 was bounce high . ES weaker of the 2
(May 27-13:55) mike: small change on NQ. THE 60EMA on 5 min chart at 29 held, key end of day. a pullback should hold, then pop up 1 more time

(May 27-14:07) mike: just ran spreadsheet numbers, the RBI Sell and 3 day thrust at +68, all else overbought or close. vix on 1 sell sig, tuesday could give more on a reversal up on vix then. so, careful with longs , the move about over

(May 27-14:39) mike: less than 90 minutes left. as long as 29.50 holds, mkt avoids trouble today. i am going to cut out early. wishing you and family a great holiday. i'll send an update on monday. then "see" you here on tuesday morning ready to go. take care

(May 27-14:50) mike: a bounce is a gift short now, swing trade , add on tuesday

 

 

Thursday- May 26, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

May 26-09:11) mike: per last nights update pre open here. 15 area key, 20.50 area good resist , the break level on econ data . should see a 2 sided day, bounces shouldn't stick , a drop back towards 10.75 area, or deeper to 1308.75-1308.00 should be bought but we'll see

(May 26-09:37) mike: cover if long , key here
(May 26-09:40) mike: 17.00-16.50 needs held now
(May 26-09:48) mike: supp bought, a scalp, 1320.00-1320.50 needs cleared/ held to keep from fail now
(May 26-09:53) mike: a sell w/ tight stop under resist
(May 26-09:53) mike: 17.25 supp now, must hold
(May 26-09:55) mike: a top in for now, 17 resist
(May 26-10:05) mike: 15.50 resist now,
(May 26-10:08) mike: 16.75 should be key area
(May 26-10:14) mike: bad action again, sellers at 15.50 area still, 12.50 met but still weak. nq needs to get over 2315 too

(May 26-10:20) mike: The ES opened at the 1315.50-1315.00 initial support and bounced 4.50 points to 1319.25 (just under key 1320 area) and then dropped to the 1312.50 support so far. Now the 1315.50 area needs cleared/ held on a dip to dent the downside momentum, but shouldn't get over 1320 and hold.

(May 26-10:26) mike: the 12.50 level held so far, its the most it should go, or then the 1308.75-1308.00 would be next. a decent bounce , 15.50 area needs held now to avoid more downside

(May 26-10:29) mike: a feeble bounce, no sticking, a pop up off 15 here should fail unless NQ breaks out n sticks over 2315
(May 26-10:38) mike: mkt trying to make a base to bounce from. a dip should hold 15.50 now at lowest
(May 26-10:47) mike: wedge pattern, a break of 15 not good
(May 26-10:51) mike: a bounce to 17 area should fail if can get there, feeble bid , wedge broke

(May 26-10:56) mike: After the last update the ES bounced to 1317.50, (60EMA on 5 min chart) and made a wedge pattern in the process. That was broken and pressure is back on. If 1312.50 not held, then 1308.75-1308.00 in the cards still.

(May 26-11:01) mike: dbl bottom attempt, but still pressure on under 14.50-15.00
(May 26-11:04) mike: trouble unless 14.50 exceeded still, 10.75 next if 14.50 not broken / held
(May 26-11:10) mike: dbl bottom could hold if 14.00 not broken, but still dont trust long side but for a scalp .
(May 26-11:12) mike: bit of a bounce, but not much upside before its sold again
(May 26-11:21) mike: 17.00 area resist, but dip to 15 should hold
(May 26-11:22) mike: to stay in a 2 sided day and not break down

(May 26-11:28) mike: held at15.25 so far. the 60ema on 5 min chart has been rejected 2 times so far, around 17 now. it needs cleared/ held over to change things this morn , tight stop if long off 15 area , a scalp out at 16.75

(May 26-11:36) mike: this should be a bounce high if going lower. 16 area supp, pivotal area. NQ stronger today, keep an eye on it to lead the way.
(May 26-11:38) mike: still no stick over 60ema... i need to be away till near 1pm. bounces going to have hard time holding due to recent damage.

(May 26-13:02) mike: just back. a pullback should hold the 18.00-17.50 at worst now. 21.50 should hold to keep pushing higher here
(May 26-13:07) mike: 22.00-21.50 trend supp. the 1 min chart set up per ebook trend supp , a decent dip if broken

(May 26-13:20) mike: needs to stay over 21 area on a dip now. that and 12400 on dow cash is where trouble started yesterday. a decent low is in now, expect a pullback to hold , 18 area key should it not hold over 21 area

(May 26-13:24) mike: 1324.00-1324.50 can be pushed thru if 23,25 holds
(May 26-13:27) mike: reversed resist, 23.25 must hold or bigger drop. if 1 more pop up, 27.00-27.50 should be target,, a sell if reached n stall out

(May 26-13:36) mike: After the last update the ES double bottomed at 1312.50 and turned up and continued to grind higher to test the 1324.00-1324.50 so far. Now it takes a break of 1323 that sticks to reverse the trend, but good support near 1318 area.

(May 26-13:40) mike: this should give a pullback. 12400 on dow cash test needs held
(May 26-13:41) mike: NQ should lead, as it did on the way up .
(May 26-13:47) mike: vix about to go under 16. fear gone in a hurry. 21.50 key on dip
(May 26-13:49) mike: and dow 12400 area. 2322 on NQ
(May 26-13:56) mike: rejection of 24 resist , a dbl top to go with dbl bottom now, 21.50 key , then 19.50 if no spring back up

(May 26-14:07) mike: tough call because 12401 low on dow cash and a good reversal day, but this occurred the last 2 days and stuck at resist, fear buying a high. a pop to 27 area possible yet so no damage until 21.50 or 12400 on dow break

(May 26-14:20) mike: good size offered above at 25.00, key to get thru ,
(May 26-14:23) mike: the 2:20-2:40 timeframe usually gives move. a three-peat of another late drop not likely. good buying on dips ,
(May 26-14:25) mike: 23.50 area will need held to push higher.
(May 26-14:26) mike: 27.00 could be a magnet
(May 26-14:27) mike: 24.50-24.00 supp now ,old resist and breakout area. 27.00 gap resist
(May 26-14:31) mike: this should be over tomorrow or 27-28 area.
(May 26-14:36) mike: 26.5 trend supp now ,
(May 26-14:39) mike: short test of high, scalp trade. 26.00-25.50 needs held or that could be it

(May 26-14:44) mike: 26.00 bought, needs held to stay trend up, or test of 24.50-24.00 the key supp. 27.50-28.00 key above now , should be sold w/ tight stop.

(May 26-14:51) mike: 123 top, dips of 2.25 points and 2.00 points were bought, a dip of more than that will break the symmetry, rhythm. trend.
(May 26-15:05) mike: 2.25 point dip held. it was 2-sided until around noon, trend up since, so that level must be defended now
(May 26-15:11) mike: 24.50 reached, shouldn't have, a high in to 21.50 area
(May 26-15:17) mike: 25.00-25.50 resist now late here
(May 26-15:24) mike: need to stay over 24.00-23.50 or a bearish pattern forms .
(May 26-15:37) mike: fitting to close w/ a dbl top at resist. but if they go thru 27.50 and break out, 30.50 a small resist. have a good rest of the day

(May 26-15:51) mike: a put position on bounce, a top on this today/ tomorrow morn.

 

 

 

Wednesday- May 25, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 25-11:28) mike: lightening storm took out electricity... NQ needs to get over 2310 or this move is over. toppy up there, 15.50 a ''must hold'' or this gets reversed. the 20 area shouldnt be held if tested again
(May 25-11:35) mike: After the last update the ES broke 1315.50 then held on a dip and a move to 1319.25 reached so far. It acts a bit toppy, so if 1315.50 is broken the move reverses again. A test of the 1320 area should be rejected if tested now.

(May 25-11:40) mike: until there is a lower high, lower low on 5 min chart, this stays trend up. just expect the ne high to be sold in to.
(May 25-11:47) mike: the mkt has had a good bid on the dips, but 20 shouldn't hold first time over it, 19.00-18.50 area kinda key now. i'll be back near 1pm
(May 25-13:10) mike: 20 was not held first time, needs to now or can get a drop
(May 25-13:15) mike: 12400 on dow cash key there too. that n 1320 area , 2314-15 NQ
(May 25-13:27) mike: After the last update the ES popped over 1320 but it didn't stick and has turned into resistance ever since and could give back a gains to 1315 area, which needs held or the lows are not yet in.

(May 25-13:30) mike: 18.00-18.50 resist
(May 25-13:40) mike: NQ to lead it lower, 2310-11 key resist there
(May 25-13:46) mike: pullback to 17.75 needs held to keep up move in gear, and not reverse.
(May 25-13:49) mike: needs to pop up here
(May 25-13:50) mike: the 19.25-19.75 resist. under 20 its vulnerable still
(May 25-14:11) mike: this trying to brace out at 17 level. can test 19.25-19.75 but doubt it sticks
(May 25-14:18) mike: 19.25 met, 18.25 needs hold to avoid backing dn to 17 again or reversal
(May 25-14:32) mike: 19.25 are needs held, 20 is stalling, so a dip there needs bid right back up, or another late reversal possible.
(May 25-14:41) mike: getting pummeled with hail stones, a tornado watch out, i better take cover for a bit. 20 on ES, 124000 on dow cash key up here. 17 is the key supp to reverse to get a bounce / back asap
(May 25-15:08) mike: 3pm run up. a pullback to 20.50 good supp now.
(May 25-15:11) mike: 27.00-27.50 area the next resist over 24.25 level. 21.50 should hold on a dip, 20.50 at most
(May 25-15:18) mike: 23.00-22.50 needs held, or to 20.50-20.00 area before a bounce
(May 25-15:27) mike: 22.50 held once, key now
(May 25-15:38) mike: the mkt has had a bullish day, especially by getting over 19.50. but, up here the upside getting more risk on longs, need a deeper dip. to 20 or so before thinking long here
(May 25-15:49) mike: dip to 20, but no buying, still an oversold, bear bounce it looks
(May 25-15:56) mike: need to close over 19.50 or no low yet the way i see it
(May 25-15:56) mike: 21.50-22.00 area good resist to sell if reached
(May 25-16:04) mike: have a great rest of the day.

 

 

Friday- May 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(May 20-09:18) mike: initial supp at 1340.75-1340.25 on ES, 2366.25-2365.75 on NQ now is initial resist, pivotal area today
(May 20-09:45) mike: 1340.75-1340.25 initial supp is key resist still
(May 20-09:48) mike: could bounce off 1335.25-1334.75, but not stick.
(May 20-09:54) mike: 36.50-37.00 resist on bounce

(May 20-10:04) mike: 1331.50-1330.50 key to avoid big break dn..., a run up to 36 area should be sold
(May 20-10:13) mike: 31.50 held, a heavy mkt, 34 needs cleared/ held on a dip to turn momentum a bit , else bad mkt still
(May 20-10:17) mike: The ES opened just under initial support and per last night's update a drop to the 1331.50-1330.50 so far. Don't pick a bottom, the market is in trouble unless 1334 is cleared, then can hold that on a dip.
(May 20-10:21) mike: 30.50 and 12500 on dow cash are short term major supp. a test needs to make a dbl bottom and spring higher or then 28 area is next. 34 area still key above ,
(May 20-10:30) mike: 34.25 bounce high, 32.50 needs to hold or to the low
(May 20-10:37) mike: no hold of 32.50, the low right at a support, but heavy mkt, 34 area still needs cleared/ held to get out of this hole.
(May 20-10:44) mike: NQ getting hit , ES should follow along. 2354 area good resist there
(May 20-10:48) mike: 1328.50-1327.50 a supp, then 24 area. 31.50 area resist on bounce
(May 20-10:51) mike: bounce from 28.50 supp but 32.25 should not be cleared on this bounce to keep the symmetry going

(May 20-11:02) mike: After the last emailed update the ES bounced from 1330.50 support to 1334.25 updated resistance, then reversed and dropped to test the 1328.50-1327.50 zone. The market needs to hold there, or it gets ugly and 1324 or so is next. 1334 needs cleared to stop the trend day.
(May 20-11:05) mike: i need to be away for 90 minutes or so today, my apologies. keep an eye on NQ too, the mkt wont bounce far unless it gets bid up over 2352, or bigger at area at 2358

(May 20-12:41) mike: trends supp nst 38 now
(May 20-12:46) mike: a dip to 36.50 -36.00 next here
(May 20-12:56) mike: 36.50 meet. this area needs held, top of range in if broken and back to 34 if broken

(May 20-13:04) mike: 123 type top possible on bounce off 36.00 supp, 36 key
(May 20-13:15) mike: unless 37.50-38.00 cleared, this is still vulnerable to more downside
(May 20-13:16) mike: especially if 36 breaks here
(May 20-13:21) mike: good resist there, 38 needs pushed thru or a break of 36 starts a drop
(May 20-13:23) mike: my misread, a dip should hold, 37.50 should be supp, NQ back leading this
(May 20-13:35) mike: 37.25 was reversed , that should be as far as a dip goes to keep trying higher
(May 20-13:46) mike: ES has had lot of trouble around 40.50-41.50, could reverse again there
(May 20-13:51) mike: need turn up here at 38 at lowest or 40.25 a high
(May 20-13:58) mike: 36.25 a key level this afternoon, a break will roll it over again. still a test of 39-40 should be sold

(May 20-14:05) mike: 39.00 sold, should be a bounce high or 40 could get test ,
(May 20-14:10) mike: if short look in part
(May 20-14:12) mike: 36.25 key to hold/ break, stop 38.26 on rest , shouldnt be exceeded if break down coming
(May 20-14:17) mike: 36.25 held so far, 35.25 is next if 36.25 breaks, 38.25 bounce resist
(May 20-14:34) mike: the 36.25 was just broken by 1 tick, not rallying tho, doubt a bounce can hold, 38 needs cleared or still vulnerable it looks
(May 20-14:54) mike: 37.50 small supp, needs held , rally or not, risk reward not good on long side
(May 20-14:59) mike: i need to leave early, thats it for the upside, a bounce a short around 37. have a great weekend

 

 

Thursday- May 19, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 19-08:46) mike: resist areas for ES and NQ are at:

(May 19-08:46) mike: resist
1340.50-1341.25 - 2364.50-2365.50
1344.75-1345.25 - 2372.50-2373.50
1349.50-1350.50 - 2382.00-2383.00

(May 19-08:47) mike: support at-

(May 19-08:47) mike: support
1335.25-1334.75 - 2358.75-2358.25
1331.50-1330.50 - 2348.00-2346.75
1328.50-1327.50 - 2337.25-2336.25

(May 19-09:10) mike: the mkt had a low in first 15 minutes yesterday, a high in last 15 min , a trend day. should be a 2 sided day today. this early strength should be sold towards 40.50 to fill gap on daily chart , thats first support. 1344.75-1345.25 resist

(May 19-09:13) mike: indicators not yet overbought, vix need a bit more of a drop then reverse and close up to get any sell sigs, so not a decent pullback should be bought
(May 19-09:16) mike: 2372.50-2373.50 the resist on NQ thats key early
(May 19-09:33) mike: 1344.75-1345.25 ES, 2372.50-2373.50 NQ the first good resist
(May 19-09:38) mike: 44.25 just under resist sold
(May 19-09:39) mike: 40.50 supp 1
(May 19-09:56) mike: the lows on ES / NQ and 12600 on dow cash need held / first 30-40 min should see some pullback or drop

(May 19-10:01) mike: top in on housing data , ga filled but 42.50-43.00 resist on pop up
(May 19-10:07) mike: 43.00 rejected, pivotal area now scalp
(May 19-10:08) mike: 38 next supp
(May 19-10:12) mike: 38 met, a bounce of abou 3 points should fail
(May 19-10:14) mike: 40.50 now trend resist area
(May 19-10:20) mike: The ES gapped up on the open and got to the 1344.75-1345.25 resistance before reversing. That should be a high for the day, unless 1340.50-341.50 area is cleared then held on a dip.
(May 19-10:33) mike: more downside unless 40.50-41.00 exceeded/ held soon , 39.00 needs held or a 5 pt drop off 41 area
(May 19-10:43) mike: 41 area on top has stall/rejection, the 60ema on 5 min chart is at 37.75 and rising, its held on dips since yesterday after breakout over 33.50 area , mkt acts toppy, but bigger trend not yet broken unless 38 broken / held on bounce which needs to happen here
(May 19-10:44) mike: 36 area will be next
(May 19-10:48) mike: dropped from 1 tick over fixed resist, bounced/reversed at 43 new resist, and then at 40.50-41.00 area, stair step lower unless 40.25 exceeded / held now
(May 19-10:51) mike: 36.25 next supp / target
(May 19-10:56) mike: 36.50-37.25 good resist now

(May 19-11:00) mike: 34.00 next very key
(May 19-11:07) mike: After the last emailed update the ES bounced to 1340.75 resistance, then stalled before rolling over again to 1335.25 initial support so far. The 1338.50 area is now good resistance, and a 1331.50-1330.50 the next support, a major area to hold.
(May 19-11:09) mike: i gave 36.50-37.25 in here, it was sold so still be in shorts
(May 19-11:11) mike: it needs cleared then held on a dip to change this / back in about 90 minutes , 31.50-30.50 very key below, 28 again if a test is not held

(May 19-12:24) mike: resist 40.75, NQ turned. 38.50 still needs held on this drop
(May 19-12:33) mike: held 39.25, pushed back up. this up here key,, bids pulled 1st time looking for a dip to hold. 40.50-39.50 need held on a dip
(May 19-12:51) mike: if 39.50 breaks, bounce over. its key now

(May 19-13:05) mike: 39.50 held, so far, , 37.50 supp if broken
(May 19-13:19) mike: 42.00 area need held now to push higher
(May 19-13:23) mike: next pop up a sell now
(May 19-13:39) mike: 2373 big on nq too
(May 19-13:43) mike: pop reversed at 42.50 , if short take a partial profit at 40.50 or better, trail stop on the rest . nq shouldnt see 2373 again ,
(May 19-13:44) mike: a 2 sided day and 38-37 likely again
(May 19-13:57) mike: dip to 41.75 needs held or dbl top

(May 19-14:10) mike: 41.75 needs held , good sellers up there at 43.60 area
(May 19-14:13) mike: that s it, 42 resist now
(May 19-14:19) mike: a bounce will be sold in to, if not short use a pop to short , 37.50 or more in the cards
(May 19-14:30) mike: back to the low if 38 not held , or 40.50 -41.00 rejected
(May 19-14:35) mike: 40.75 was supp, but turned resist after broken , and key / pivotal resist
(May 19-14:43) mike: 37.50 broken, 39.50 trend resist now , 34 area NEXT
(May 19-14:44) mike: 36.00 AREA NEXT, THEN 34 IF PUSHED THRU
(May 19-14:54) mike: the 40.25-40.75 has been pivotal in this 2 way action, need a hold over it to try for the high again. that will get sold

(May 19-15:02) mike: i need to be away the last hour here. we had a high at fixed resist, a low at fixed supp, and good moves in between. hope you had a good day, and a good rest of the day. ''see'' you in the morning.

 

 

 

Tuesday- May 17, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 17-09:17) mike: 1321.50-1320.50 going to break
(May 17-09:21) mike: the initial supp on both ES and NQ now is resist that needs cleared/ held on a dip this morn to get a short covering move up.
(May 17-09:40) mike: NQ weaker than ES again , should lead the way / 2329 is the key resist to get over there, 25 on ES
(May 17-09:47) mike: 21.50-20.50 , need to stay over , should be early low IF a move over 25.50 ES, 2329 nq both
(May 17-09:57) mike: 25.50 and 2330 tested, 23.50 supp needs held on a dip,

(May 17-10:02) mike: 12500 on dow cash, $INDU symbol, and 2330 on NQ, 26.50 es all key this morn

(May 17-10:07) mike: The ES gapped down on the open, then bounced from 1320.00 (just under 1321.50-1320.50 zone) to 1326.25 where selling came in on the first bounce. The 2330 area on NQ, 12500 on the Dow cash ($INDU is the symbol) and 1326 ALL need cleared to take pressure off. Still a short on bounces unless that happens.

(May 17-10:16) mike: a dbl bottom on dow, NQ pressure off for now ,24 area should / must hold now
(May 17-10:28) mike: 1328.00-1328.50 key here, 26 must hold now, or a reversal again.
(May 17-10:42) mike: resist sold , 12500 on dow cash , 25.00 es must hold or another roll over
(May 17-10:54) mike: this is polar opposite of the bull move up, the selling on bounces should continue today until mkt gets oversold or near the 1319.50 area at least before this is over.
(May 17-10:57) mike: 25.50-26.25 area resist on this bounce at most it looks to go lower

(May 17-11:05) mike: dow hit pretty hard , at lower low, it has been the only average not breaking down very much until today. should keep pressure on
(May 17-11:07) mike: if no fast reversal off 19.50, 15.50- area next
(May 17-11:27) mike: need to stay over 20 to avoid test/ break of low
(May 17-11:37) mike: i need to be away for about 60-90 minutes, this stays trend down unless 22 is exceeded. then held on a dip. to the 1315.00-1314.25 area or lower area

(May 17-12:41) mike: low was just as i left, just over the 1315.50-1314.50 zone. this bounce can extend towards 24.50-25.00, and thats 60ema which held as resist on bigger bounces since break dn yesterday
(May 17-12:44) mike: 21.25 area should be important to hold on pullback from that resist
(May 17-12:53) mike: a pop up to test 22.50-23.00 sell em , the bounces keep making rising wedge patterns [per ebook] and get hit when momentum fizzles

(May 17-13:03) mike: a quick look at internal gauges , a pretty deeply oversold status if a close like this. maybe not today, but by tomorrow a decent snap back rally will be likely , only thing missing are vix buy sigs, just 1 out of possible 5 right now...... unless this mkt is in VERY bad shape and can mot make good on a very oversold mkt . today still, bounces should fail.
(May 17-13:24) mike: 60ema still stopping the decent bounces, its at 23.50 now , the 20.50 area needs held to try to get there and test/ or push thru
(May 17-13:26) mike: if 23.50 not rejected, 26.26 could be seen before a pullback.
(May 17-13:48) mike: 26.25 IF 25.00 exceeded, then another pullback
(May 17-13:57) mike: another wedge break if 22 broken, 23.50 resist then if 22 breaks . 18.50 and 112400 the good supp, could set up long trade dn there

(May 17-14:07) mike: 26.25 should be rejected if going to pull back , 24.50 now small supp, the 22 area strong supp must hold
(May 17-14:18) mike: 36.25 target missed by 1 tick, a big wedge pattern, could break hard
(May 17-14:26) mike: 21.25 is symmetry supp, a bounce to 24 tho should fail
(May 17-14:42) mike: 24 needs cleared or back dn they go
(May 17-14:44) mike: 18.50 next supp, another point drop of bounce high too
(May 17-14:54) mike: good buying on the 5-6 point drops this afternoon. oversold mkt should rally soon. if 23.50-22.50 tested, should hold to try a bottoming pattern and move higher
(May 17-14:58) mike: the key will be staying over 2328 area on NQ, which has been weak. that and a 5 point pullback on ES. dynamics changing , dips should be bought

(May 17-15:07) mike: 23.75 need bid back up. or still vulnerable on bounce
(May 17-15:11) mike: held 23.75, at 24.00 , tht looks pivotal / i need to be away till after the close. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday- May 16, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 16-09:10) mike: a news driven mkt early, maybe more, NQ should be the weaker index , closed very poor friday, in a bigger hole than ES.
(May 16-09:27) mike: 1328.50-1327.50 the key supp, must reverse up on a test. 32.50-33.50 resist 1 [gap fill on daily chart] then 36 area
(May 16-09:30) mike: 2369-71 on NQ its resist 1 , key resist and sell areas / transition to up if broken/ held today
(May 16-09:36) mike: if you bought reversal, cover
(May 16-09:36) mike: or tight stop, 30 new key to stay over, get thru 33
(May 16-09:41) mike: resist , 31.50 supp now , nq 2365
(May 16-09:52) mike: resist sold, 51.50 broken , 32 needs cleared / held over to get turned / nq reverse at 2370 resist too
(May 16-09:52) mike: 67 there need exceeded/ held

(May 16-10:02) mike: so far a good bid on dip , 36 area resist,
(May 16-10:04) mike: 33.00-32.50 now supp , key this morn.
(May 16-10:10) mike: reversal if 34.25-33.75 area not defended now.
(May 16-10:16) mike: 34.25-33.75 area met, not going to stick unless NQ gets a bid
(May 16-10:21) mike: cover any longs
(May 16-10:23) mike: mkt still vulnerable up here until nq gets over 2370 area / sticks , or deeper pullback / drop
(May 16-10:32) mike: stall at highs, buyers back off, but as long as 34 holds no reversal, 2364 area on nq its supp. reversal if broken. 12600 on the Dow cash, 1338. on ES needs cleared to get extension up, else fail there
(May 16-10:40) mike: a dip of 3.25 and 3.00 pts, so far. 34.25 should be broken , 35 needs held it looks to keep this up here
(May 16-10:49) mike: 1338.50-1339.00 the good resist to push thru. , 35.75 trend supp now, must hold
(May 16-10:55) mike: as long as higher high, higher low on 1 min chart , trend up grind. would take a trend break on small timeframe first, stay with this trend unless break on a 1 min chart first, or pullback more than 3 ES pts after that to change this

(May 16-11:00) mike: i need to be away parts of day again today. back near 1230pm. 38.25 now trend supp, a 3 pt dip the key supp.

(May 16-12:26) mike: the reversal off 41.25 broke 1 min trend, break 38.00 changed the dynamics, 38 was then tested before the drop to 34 area, key for ES. NQ much weaker per pre open comment. this bounce a sell
(May 16-12:32) mike: 37.0-38.00 resist
(May 16-12:42) mike: After the last update the ES stayed trend up to 1341.25 then reversed, and the break/ hold of 1338 changed things and the ES went back to the 1334 support. The NQ will be key this afternoon, as it is getting hammered while the ES still held 1334, a key support. Unless the NQ gets turned up and the ES gets over 1338 and sticks, the move could back off and take out 1334 this afternoon.
(May 16-12:47) mike: 37.25 rejection shows good offers there, 3260-32.00 on break, or lower
(May 16-12:53) mike: 32.50 met, 35 good resist, 52 on nq
(May 16-12:59) mike: 33.00 trend resist now.

(May 16-13:00) mike: size offers on NQ, 2347 good resist on bounce
(May 16-13:08) mike: follow NQ, lead weight on it
(May 16-13:22) mike: 34.00 pivotal resist , if reached. 32.50 would need held on a dip, or a move back to lows
(May 16-13:39) mike: is 32 can hold, could get a bump up towards 34. if so, a dip then needs held here
(May 16-13:45) mike: 32.25 supp , needs held
(May 16-13:49) mike: 12600 on dow cash here too, a break of 3300-32.50 can roll it over again.

(May 16-14:07) mike: the high and low likely in, unless 32.50 breaks. a scalp long on dip as long as held, up to 37.50-38.00 next good resist
(May 16-14:18) mike: rising wedge, 33.50 needs held or bounce will fail
(May 16-14:28) mike: wedge break, and now lows could be tested, the 30 area anyhow, 33 rsists
(May 16-14:32) mike: 2:30-2:40 timeframe bounce, 332.50-33.26 area should be rejected if going lower
(May 16-14:36) mike: 25.25 is next no spring up from 28
(May 16-14:43) mike: that low only sticks on ES if NQ can perk up, and not pull mkt lower into cllose , or a lower low
(May 16-14:44) mike: i need to be way until 3:15. eye on NQ, 32 resist on ES

(May 16-15:19) mike: another wedge break
(May 16-15:20) mike: end of day, 32 area key, needs exceeded/ held or test 28
(May 16-15:31) mike: a short cover bounce, need a push over 30.50 or it fails
(May 16-15:34) mike: got the test of 28, if that can hold then a base could form there. not interested tho w/ 25 min in stock trading. a break of that wouldnt be good ,
(May 16-15:34) mike: have a good rest of the day
(May 16-15:36) mike: still need a push over 30.50, or splat
(May 16-15:47) mike: 25.25 key, then 23.50 could be seen on way towards 19.50 27.50-29.50 resist now
(May 16-15:55) mike: short covering move. a close over 28 needed to try to dig out of this hole.

 

 

Friday- May 13, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 13-09:16) mike: ES at 48 is still about 3.00 pts over fair value, traders a bit overly bullish, not fearing downside... stocks should gap up, then ES will need to get thru 51 area or drop hard early
(May 13-09:33) mike: resist rejected
(May 13-09:46) mike: 46.0-46.50 resist , 42.50 key to bounce from then
(May 13-09:50) mike: 1349.75-1351.00is the bigger pic resist, its a sell under
(May 13-09:52) mike: 1343.00-1342.25 is the major supp, a break hold there puts pressure on
(May 13-09:53) mike: mich sentiment 2 min

(May 13-10:01) mike: bounce off supp not held, mkt breaks down if 43 not reversed up fast
(May 13-10:05) mike: a bounce will be sold , still under pressure 44 area now good resist
(May 13-10:10) mike: 43.50-44.00 resist ,
(May 13-10:13) mike: 43.00 rejected, 1337.25-1336.50 gets a test if 44.00 not cleared, and 40.50 breaks
(May 13-10:14) mike: 44.25 the key on bounce, if cleared low may be in
(May 13-10:17) mike: this pullback to 43 needs to hold , or reversing back dn
(May 13-10:22) mike: good resist 46 area,
(May 13-10:23) mike: 43 test needs to spring up
(May 13-10:32) mike: 43.25 bought up, its key to hold over , 2397 on NQ. , NOT much gusto on bounce, should fail 48.50 the key resist above
(May 13-10:38) mike: The ES opened higher and then quickly was sold at 1348.50 and a washout to 1340.75 occurred 40 minutes in and turned back up. This should have trouble if a stall / reversal near the 1349.75-1351.00 happens. A pullback needs to hold 1343 still or a top of some sort is building up here.

(May 13-10:43) mike: 12700 dow cash area has been key 2 days here
(May 13-10:44) mike: reversal if 45 breaks , nq
(May 13-10:58) mike: 43 test again coming, must jump fast off that. 47 area a sell if reached again

(May 13-11:03) mike: could bounce but not good action, the ES triple top at 48.75-48.50 , short if it somehow is reached, it shouldn't be seen again really, 44.50 a good short if not in
(May 13-11:10) mike: 1337.25-1336.50 should be tested, a scalp long IF a sign of reversal there, but no stick on a bounce, 44 area a gift , 2397 on nq.
(May 13-11:15) mike: i need to be away for a bit, back near 12:30 or so. stay w/ selling bounces that stall or tick extreme, tops of some sort forming, or the range contraction builds a triangle on daily chart. unless 51 exceeded, or 36.50 broken.
(May 13-11:24) mike: After the last emailed update the ES reversed at 1347.00, then cut right thru 1343 on the way to the 1337.25-1336.50 support/ target so far. Ugly action, a decent bounce is a gift to sell the way this acts.

(May 13-13:07) mike: 35.50 needs pushed over then held on dip to try to change this trend move, but its an ugly day, wouldnt stick
(May 13-13:30) mike: nq a sell at 2382-74 area, es 36.50 area if they get there again , trend day into 2pm or 220-240 timeframe if resist not cleared/ held
(May 13-13:41) mike: After the last emailed update the ES bounced to 1340.25 then continued the trend down by dropping to 1330.50. The bounce failed, and unless 1337 on ES AND 12600 on Dow cash is cleared, the move continues and 1328.50-1326.75 area on a lower low.

(May 13-14:06) mike: a scalp long on dip that holds/ turns up around 33.50 lowest,
(May 13-14:08) mike: no long if a move to 35,50-36.00 area fails
(May 13-14:11) mike: 35.50 fail, 34.00 is a 'must hold'' or lows tested
(May 13-14:16) mike: 12600 dow cash, 1337 ES the key resist, es needs 34.50 area held to try another bounce
(May 13-14:23) mike: 35.50 the supp to hold, it should, 40.25 resist
(May 13-14:32) mike: mkt still staying in a range, top and bottom sides seen today. the only bullish thing is a closing trin over 1.20 gives a number of short term buy sigs. we'll see how the day ended. if 37 holds this can continue, if not then 35.50 test should / must give a bounce to not end on a down note today
(May 13-14:48) mike: 12600 held, ES 3 ticks over 36.50. but, i don't trust this buying here, rright or wrong. a better short above, or better buy below ,
(May 13-14:49) mike: ES 3 ticks over 36.50., typo, its ES 3 ticks over 35.50.
(May 13-14:57) mike: needs a quick move up. that should be sold then

(May 13-15:13) mike: long week here, about to call it a week. a hold over the 60 ema, 37.50 now, needed to push higher into close. that 36.50 area the good / key supp
(May 13-15:16) mike: 35.50, not 36.50, typo again. tho 36.50 should hold if going higher, roll over if not defended... have a good weekend

 

 

Thursday- May 12, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 12-09:22) mike: expect 2 sided day, the 1332.50-1331.75 zone is key, must hold on a drop / NQ a weaker index
May 12, 2011 9:42 mike: 35.50 needs cleared / held to try a turn up\
May 12, 2011 9:44 mike: 28 area still in cards
May 12, 2011 9:51 mike: 28.75 was close, a short cover bounce , but should not stick , 32.50 r
May 12, 2011 9:53 mike: rejection there, 33 needs cleared / held
May 12, 2011 9:59 mike: 34.25-3450 resist

May 12, 2011 10:02 mike: a short unless 33 exceeded/ held still
May 12, 2011 10:04 mike: 33.00 yest low is the key area this morn
May 12, 2011 10:11 mike: a 123 , dbl bottom , a dip needs to hold 32.25 area at most to push higher
May 12, 2011 10:13 mike: should pullback at 36-37 area
May 12, 2011 10:21 mike: 33.00 pivotal level it looks this morn
May 12, 2011 10:29 mike: 33 held, 33.50 pullback low, needs held or a bounce that follows will a short. stall here not good
May 12, 2011 10:35 mike: prairie dog pop/ reversal at 37.50, good offer above, 37.75-38.25 is strong resist above to get thru, not reverse . 33.50-33.00 the key supp that must hold
May 12, 2011 10:38 mike: 12600 on dow cash also coincides with that retest above.
May 12, 2011 10:43 mike: typo on prairie dog pop, was at 36.50 not 37.50. bears in control under
May 12, 2011 10:48 mike: a close over 35.50 on 5 min chart needed to get out of trouble , 2 sided action , 31.75 small supp on dip , 35.50 on top , thats the key spot on top now this morn
May 12, 2011 10:53 mike: i need to be away for about 90 minutes. , the lows can be tested but would need very quick reversal

(May 12-12:34) mike: just back , 36.50 broke, held on dip, it trend supp now
(May 12-12:41) mike: just saw 1340.00-1340.75 resist is the high, thats major to break/ hold. just a bounce rejected again. 36.50 pivotal below

(May 12-13:08) mike: i had 1pm appointment, just before this running up. still trend up, if a dip holds43,50, 42.50 at lowest, still in good shape
(May 12-13:13) mike: 43.50 held, 46 area next
(May 12-13:16) mike: 46.25 fixed resist,
(May 12-13:18) mike: 2402.50-2404.00 on NQ key there, should pull back a bit
(May 12-13:19) mike: 1349.75-1350.50 the major area above, if 1 more push higher here with NQ leading by getting thru 2404 area
(May 12-13:25) mike: this move up guided all the way up by the 1 min chart setup per ebook, 45.50 needs held or losing its momentum
(May 12-13:31) mike: should be a high in or some sort, a bounce should be sold just under the highs
(May 12-13:37) mike: a big contracting trading range on ES , it looks like 1 more leg up possible , to 51.50 area max if correct on this . needs to not break 45 area to get that possibility
(May 12-13:42) mike: 123 / dbl top possible , 44.75 needs a bid right back up or move over
(May 12-13:54) mike: 45.00 held, no damage done unless broken
(May 12-13:58) mike: 1349.75-1350.50 should be max un upside today, that 47.75 , 2404 on NQ need pushed thru w/ gusto soon, or a late reversal starts

(May 12-14:10) mike: 51 will get a test if this hold 47.50-47.00
(May 12-14:20) mike: next bounce is a short when it stalls, 45 is critical to stay over or bounce is over today ,
(May 12-14:30) mike: This pattern is bearish , a pop up here can happen, but sellers/ trapped long above to sell into
(May 12-14:36) mike: 47.50 resist on bounce, 12700 area dow cash there too
(May 12-14:50) mike: we had a low made about 15 minutes into stock trading, 1 point over a key supp. then rally in a pretty volatile uptrend to 1 pt under a key resist.. might be it for the day for the range,
(May 12-14:54) mike: dow rejected 12700, 47 not cleared, needs cleared or back dn they go to 42 or so / IF cleared then a high can be made with about 15 min left in stock trading.
(May 12-14:56) mike: 42 area now first supp, 36.50 is very key to hold. i need to be away rest of day
(May 12-14:57) mike: my apologies, have a good rest of the day
 

 

Wednesday- May 11, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 11-09:13) mike: 1357.75-1358.50 globex high area, the 1352.25-1351.50 zone give bounce, when my 3 day thrust at extreme, and RBI osc overbought too, bounces shouldnt stick
(May 11-09:26) mike: the vix should move today for TVIX traders
(May 11-09:38) mike: 1348.75-1348.00 , 12700 dow cash held, strong / key / here,, 52.50 r on bounce
(May 11-09:44) mike: weak mkt if 51 not even cleared
(May 11-09:48) mike: 51 not cleared, if nq reverses dn, ES should break 48 supp
(May 11-09:54) mike: 52.50-53.00 resist , if 50 breaks then wedge break turns it back dn

(May 11-10:00) mike: 45.25 should break or test
(May 11-10:07) mike: the 51.00-51.50 a big cluster of resist, bounces vulnerable under that still
(May 11-10:11) mike: The ES opened lower and dropped to 1348.25 (1348.75-1348.00) zone, then a bounce to 1351.50 followed. That was sold and drop to a lower low at 1347.50 occurred. 1351.50 is a cluster of resistance, market vulnerable under that.
(May 11-10:18) mike: a small reversal pattern, 48.50 needs held or it breaks
(May 11-10:20) mike: 50.25 resist, 12700 dow cash here
(May 11-10:25) mike: 45.25 should be tested today , as long as 50.50 not exceeded / held
(May 11-10:37) mike: 46.00-45.50 key down here. 1343.00-1342.25 area would be next,
(May 11-10:38) mike: bounces of 2.50-3.50 pts should fail to keep choppy trend dn move intact
(May 11-10:46) mike: a test of low that reverses can give another bounce on short covering. 49 area resist on a decent bounce
(May 11-10:49) mike: 2 pt bounce,
(May 11-10:57) mike: The ES reached the 1346.00-1345.50 area in a trend down fashion. It should be a low for a bit, but unless 1351.50 is exceeded again the market remains vulnerable.

(May 11-11:01) mike: i need to be away for a bit, 12700 on dow cash, 49.50 area on ES resist needs cleared, held on a dip .

(May 11-12:32) mike: after i left ES got to 49.25, dow around 12700, then broke hard . 42.50 good resist on a bounce
(May 11-12:33) mike: TVIX up over 7.50% , nice trade there too
(May 11-12:51) mike: a bounce needs to get over the 40 area and hold, trend down day into late day unless that occurs. could dbl bottom or break and slide towards 32 area, possibly 28 area

(May 11-13:03) mike: 39.50 rejected. should be bounce high, if cleared, 41.25 as far as this should go,
(May 11-13:11) mike: After the last emailed update the ES failed just under 1349.50 and Dow cash at 12700 was sold and an air pocket drop to 1334.75 low so far. The 1341.25 level is as far as a bounce should go if that far, to stay trend down and maybe see 1328 area if they break the lows. A good bounce should stop around 1345 if a better bounce occurs.
(May 11-13:30) mike: channel and good resist on bounces still, the 39.50-40.99 will need cleared/ held... its 20ema too
(May 11-13:35) mike: 1332.50-1331.75 next , 37 resist
(May 11-13:45) mike: good bounce off 33.00, just over 1332.50-1331.75 supp thats still there. a test that stalls/ reverses can set up a trade on long side. 39.50-40.00 area still trend down day resist on bounce

(May 11-14:03) mike: mkt firming, trying to, but mkt stays weak unless 39.50-40 cleared... a test of low could set up long trade, but would need a good reversal up, or 28 area possible still
(May 11-14:20) mike: i don't think this drop is a 1 day thing, and back up they go again. ... contrary to that, can possibly bounce but not going to get too far before its sold
(May 11-14:23) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart [per ebook] good trend dn resist, needs pushed over to dent dnside
(May 11-14:29) mike: test of low , small bounce, 36.25 should be a lid if going lower. 28 area if a break of dbl bottom
(May 11-14:31) mike: last 90 min, a low at 2:26 pm often a reversal time. , tough call here.
(May 11-14:34) mike: i need to be away till near 320pm. 37.50 is resistance. if 35 can hold, mkt averts a poor close

(May 11-15:26) mike: just after i sent last note, es held 35 and pushed higher. 40 area key end of day. 38.00-37.50 is supp above the 36.00 level
(May 11-15:31) mike: 40 rejected, 38.25 should break

 

 

Tuesday- May 10, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 10-09:15) mike: good offers above, esp the 50.50-5200 zone, 2401-02 NQ should be a top for decent drop, 45-44 area needs bid up, but early strength a sell
(May 10-09:32) mike: 1347.75 need cleared/ held to avoid drop
(May 10-09:44) mike: small dbl bottom 45.25, supp now needs defended to
(May 10-09:51) mike: 46.75 pivotal on dip, if not held, then a bounce after the break should fail, bulls in charge to 50 area as long as its held

(May 10-10:02) mike: 50 met, 48.25-47.75 area now must hold,
(May 10-10:04) mike: 48.50 key , a top in for the morn if breaks
(May 10-10:11) mike: if a pop fails at 50, a 123 type top
(May 10-10:19) mike: no reversal unless 48.00-47.50 area is broken , 51.75-52.50 area next resist, should be hard to get over n hold, unless in a trend up day. nq should lead
(May 10-10:28) mike: a 2.00-2.50 pt dip on ES needs bought to keep the trend move going, if a deeper drop, then things change
(May 10-10:36) mike: its stalling out, 49.75-49.25 zone is trend supp , needs held there
(May 10-10:40) mike: out of gas up here, a drop to 49.75-49.25 likely, needs reversed fast or high in
(May 10-10:45) mike: a bounce off supp zone is feeble, it needs to hold , pop to 52 to keep from reversal up here
(May 10-10:58) mike: i need to be away for a bit. as long as 49.50 holds, or a 2.50 point dip if new high held, this stays in buy ip mode. if a break occurs, then a high in and bounces sold. back in a bit

(May 10-12:36) mike: 51 on ES and 2401 NQ need cleared / held to get a push higher going here, ad not fail again
(May 10-12:44) mike: rejection there, the 48.50-48.00 key below, 60ema near there
(May 10-12:49) mike: daily indicators will be overbought if a close here now. the vix buy sigs worn off, its showing complacency. careful long, a small short for me
(May 10-12:53) mike: a test of 49 area need to spring right back up to avoid breaking dn a bit . 51 on ES 2400-01 on NQ both need cleared, not rejected, still to get out of sideways stuff. 48 and 2395 on bottom

(May 10-13:00) mike: After the last emailed update the ES reached 1351.75 (right at 1351.75-1352.50 zone) and backed off to 1348.00. The 1351 has been rejected twice after bouncing from 1348 and needs cleared/ held to avoid a top at that resistance. A break of 1348 breaks a channel and can cause a slide lower.

(May 10-13:03) mike: 48.00 test, 49.50 resist now off 48.00 , a rejection means more dn side
(May 10-13:14) mike: 49.50 sold, its pivotal now
(May 10-13:25) mike: another dull session so far. need a push over 4950 and stick over it here , or a test of 48 needs a good rebound.
(May 10-13:31) mike: mkt doesn't seem comfortable up here rgt now, but doesn't want to sell of either... so as long as 48 hold the bulls in charge. but around 51 should be sellers / buyers back off , especially a stall out
(May 10-13:46) mike: a dip should hold 49.50 if not another reversal / push higher. good seller above
(May 10-13:57) mike: if 50.50-51.00 cleared/ held then a late run up towards 54 area possible. 58 area is the big area well above

(May 10-14:06) mike: 51.00 rejected again, if 50.00 holds , still has chance of push thru , in slow motion
(May 10-14:17) mike: 50 held, this can see 52.50, or 54 area if 51.75 resist pushed thru, avoid a dbl top again today, if 50 breaks, bounce likely over
(May 10-14:20) mike: that was fast, a dlb top now, 51 needs exceeded/held or late drop to 48 area at least
(May 10-14:35) mike: biggest pullback this afternoon was 3 points, we're in a tiny range, so 48.50 needs held on a dip. late here to stay outta trouble. dips get bid up, so above that area the bulls in charge. if broken, then this move is over.
(May 10-14:41) mike: a pullback to 51.50 should be run right back up, 54.50 next resist,
(May 10-14:47) mike: 54.50 just missed, 53 area sup, 51.50 the key supp on a pullback
(May 10-14:50) mike: 1357.75-1358.50 next if 53 holds, and a push thru 54.50 sticks on this move
(May 10-14:59) mike: as long as 5350 is held, trend up towards 58 area.

(May 10-15:02) mike: this will be sold in the morn, 53.50 looking key. i need to leave early, a pop to 58 ara a sell if a stall/ 51.50 key to hold on weakness if 53.50 breaks / have a good day

 

 

 

Monday- May 09, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 09-09:28) mike: 1339.50-1340.25 area key early. 34.00 needs bid up, or 32 area or lower before a reversal up.
(May 09-09:38) mike: just missed 39.50-40.25 , 36.75 needs held , nq weak
(May 09-09:46) mike: 36.75 held , 37 should hold , if broken then a rising wedge break
(May 09-09:49) mike: resist sold, 40 needs exceeded/ held on dip , 37 must hold
(May 09-09:56) mike: 34.50 area next supp, then 32 area , dow cash making wedge pattern so tht supp needs held or not good

(May 09-10:13) mike: another test of resist, 38 need held, at lowest , to keep uptrend
(May 09-10:18) mike: resist rejected 3 times, bounces are still shorts unless 40 cleared/ held
(May 09-10:23) mike: dow wedge broke, 34.50area, then 32 area next supp below
(May 09-10:29) mike: 39.00 tested / sold watch 34.50-34.00 for some supp
(May 09-10:35) mike: the mkt not going up w/o the dow cash , ES is following it, 12600 should hold on a test , keep an eye on that his morn. 34.50-34.00, if cut thru, the pressure on then
(May 09-10:57) mike: 34.50-34.00 is key this morn on the downside. bounce off of it , so a trading range between that and 40 area above. 42.50 if pushed thru. if 34.50 not defended, then the dow cash should go to 12600 before getting bid up again. i'll be back around 12:30 or so...

(May 09-12:39) mike: the break of 40 held on a dip just after 12 noon, then up tp 46 area. a hold over 43 keeps upside intact. 40 is key to stay over if deeper pullback.
(May 09-12:47) mike: short w/ tight stop ust over 44.75 to test 42.50 area. a bounce needed there
(May 09-12:50) mike: 12700 on dow cash bounce. mkt ok if held
(May 09-12:57) mike: 12700 broken a bit, careful long , nq getting toppy

(May 09-13:01) mike: 42.50 should be pivotal , if broken then 40 in the cards,
(May 09-13:21) mike: 123 top possible if a pop up fails at 46 or lower. 42.50 needs defended or dn it goes
(May 09-13:34) mike: no stick on bounces, but no break of 42.50 yet. 20ema at 42.50 too, bulls in charge unless broken but a test of high likely sold
(May 09-13:43) mike: to get upside going n avoid a drop, ES need a move over 44 and hold that area. 42.50 needs defended or that won't happen
(May 09-13:52) mike: trend up as long as 44 defended
(May 09-13:56) mike: 44.00 is too far, next bounce should be sold

(May 09-14:01) mike: 44.00 needs broken to break trend but 45.00 area should be good resist. hard to get thru n hold
(May 09-14:12) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart holding on dips. no stick yet tho, a dip to 43.50 area needs bid up again or the grind higher reverses
(May 09-14:22) mike: 43.50 tagged and turned , but good sellers / offers above around 45 to get thru n hold over. another range to break soon
(May 09-14:24) mike: longs going to go for exit , 41,75 supp on break dn thru 43
(May 09-14:39) mike: 43 reversed , shorts coving instead. 1347.75-2348.25 would be good resist , 43 is a must hold
(May 09-14:43) mike: bl top possible, the 45.00-44.50 area supp on a pullback. this has been a grind / trend up move, it needs held / reversed on a test
(May 09-14:48) mike: a bounce will be sold, nq especially .
(May 09-14:51) mike: 43 on ES, 2390 on NQ are both key to hold. a bounce shouldnt get to highs, before failing
(May 09-14:57) mike: i need to leave early, the key supp held but not buying, a bounce shouldnt see/ break dbl top, sell against

(May 09-15:03) mike: 45 resist, 41.75 then 40.50-40.00 key. have a good day

 

 

Friday- May 06, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(May 06-10:20) mike: as for the mkt, my daily indicators gave a number of buy sigs at yest close. this bounce shouldn't go too far from up here, 44 area supp 1, the big supp this morn around 37.50-36.50, that should hold if its tested, or mkt still in trouble. 48.00-48.50 resist, then 50.50 then 52.50-54.00 area is major today.

(May 06-10:22) mike: to turn down, the 44 area would need broken/ held. it will be bought if mkt strong , 44.75 is a gap fill on daily chart, yest high
(May 06-10:23) mike: 50.50 the key above to get over, hold. mkt range bound under that 44.75 should be seen at least
(May 06-10:24) mike: 50,50 not cleared, 44 key now
(May 06-10:25) mike: if 12700 on dow cash, 44 area on ES not reversed fast, the 41.00-40.40 next. 38.50-37.50 if broken not reversed area
(May 06-10:25) mike: 12700 held, need to stay over here to avoid bigger pullback to 38-36 or so
(May 06-10:26) mike: 46.50-47.00 needs cleared / held , not sold, to get a rally going. or else break to 38 area then bounce back
(May 06-10:27) mike: a rejection at 46.00, dip to 44.50 needs turned up to break thru
(May 06-10:28) mike: i'll be back near 11:45am. a dbl top possible. no reversal tho unless 44 area breaks

(May 06-11:35) mike: the 52 area is a good resist, 49.00-48.50 needs held here

(May 06-11:55) mike: A pullback held 1343 and turned up and it has been a trend up day. The 1352 area is resistance still then 1354.50 is exceeded. A pullback must hold 1349.00-1347.50 and turn up fast to keep this going. If not a mid day high will in place, and 1343 is now key to stay over

A pullback held 1343 and turned up and it has been a trend up day. The 1352 area is resistance still then 1354.50 is exceeded. A pullback must hold 1349.00-1347.50 and turn up fast to keep this going. If not a mid day high will in place, and 1343 is now key to stay over

(May 06-12:07) mike: if they pop to 48.50-49.00 should fail , getting toppy again
(May 06-12:12) mike: test of low , 12700 , 46.50-47.00 resist now
(May 06-12:16) mike: 46.50 sold. key , pivotal zone there , lows break unless cleared/ held on dip
(May 06-12:29) mike: 46.50 still pivotal. a hold over needed to avoid late day downside.. 38-37 needs reversed on break lower
(May 06-12:44) mike: if you got short near 46.50-45.00 area , 38.50 bid to cover
(May 06-12:48) mike: 42.50 043.25 resist on this bounce , no higher if going lower

(May 06-13:03) mike: needs to roll over here if going to
(May 06-13:12) mike: i don't think this rallies back to the highs. if 41.75 breaks this gets another drop
(May 06-13:13) mike: push to 38.50 needs reversed fast. the bounces are shorting opportunities unless a hold over 44
(May 06-13:19) mike: target[s] met, i need to be away from around 1:25pm to near 2:30pm. the oversold bounce is over, correction is not over. if they get back to 40-41 should fail. a gift short if reached. stalls .

(May 06-14:38) mike: 36.50-37.25 good resist
(May 06-14:43) mike: 35.25 needs cleared to dent dnside mo
(May 06-14:54) mike: 12600 on dow cash now the key supp, 31 area on ES, a test should give short cover bounce at least , if not its back towards 23.50 area
(May 06-14:58) mike: i'm away from buying till monday, not late friday after all the damage done. 36.50 still resist to clear, hold on a dip or still vulnerable

(May 06-15:07) mike: 36.50-37.25 still r to hold over
(May 06-15:18) mike: 35.85 supp now, wedge breaks if not held , 39.50 trend resist
(May 06-15:32) mike: bounce started too soon, 30 min left, 36.50 needs cleared or drop, then a pop up possible. not a bullish mkt
(May 06-15:39) mike: at best it looks like a move to 39.50-40.50 area , that would likely be sold. if not rejected, then mkt finding a low. calling it a week. have a nice weekend
(May 06-15:53) mike: 39.75, then plop. c ya monday

 

 

 

Tuesday- May 03, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 03-09:13) mike: a two way trade w/ bounces not able to stick is expected today. or a decent down day , should see the 50.50 area as a key one . if they somehow run up to 58.50-59.50 that stalls is a good short
(May 03-09:14) mike: 55 initial r now this morn
(May 03-09:36) mike: reversal off dbl bottom, 55..00-54.50 must hold
(May 03-09:38) mike: 50.50 in the cards if 54.50 broken , held on bounce
(May 03-09:42) mike: pressure on under 55.50
(May 03-09:43) mike: 50.50 the major area short term. target
(May 03-09:50) mike: 5400-54.50 resist
(May 03-09:54) mike: pullback needs to stay over 54 now

(May 03-10:02) mike: The ES opened at initial support, bounced from 1354.25 to 1356.00, then reversed and dropped to 1352.00. That's just over the key 1351.00-1350.50 zone, and that is as far as a pullback goes or it's trouble. The 1359.00-1359.50 zone is bigger down trend resistance, and needs cleared to have a decent low in place.

(May 03-10:05) mike: 55.50 key on ES now, supp must hold. nq 2397 key there
(May 03-10:12) mike: a bounce here will be sold ,
(May 03-10:21) mike: 2 sided action so far. 57 needs cleared / held or its a bad formation
(May 03-10:28) mike: 54 has been pivotal. the back n forth continues if a dip hold there . 56.50 key to clear/ hold over
(May 03-10:36) mike: 50.50 area next in the cards , 55 good resist

(May 03-10:50) mike: After the last update a bounce to 1357.25 stalled/ reversed. The 2 sided trade has turned trend down, and 1355 now good resistance. The 1351.00-1350.50 zone held so far, but a break/ hold under means 1348.00-1346.50 is still possible

(May 03-10:54) mike: feeble bounce off a KEY area, a cluster of numbers around 1350. need to get over 54.50-55.00 to avoid break of very key supp

(May 03-11:03) mike: tiny dbl bottom just over key sup, but generated very little interest so far. 54-55 area should be sold
(May 03-11:21) mike: 55.50 should be good resist.
(May 03-11:24) mike: a dip to 53.50 needs hold to keep the move up intact
(May 03-11:32) mike: 54.25 held, this bounce should be sold , if tht 54.25 breaks, 50.50 possible on 1 more drop
(May 03-11:46) mike: dip held and grind back up, test of high , pullback to 55.25 should / must holds now

(May 03-12:02) mike: held 55.50 so far, 58.50-59.25 would be next , a break of 55.50 can start a rollover if not defended tho
(May 03-12:08) mike: sell area as a stall at resist, nq may be better sell on a pop up
(May 03-12:11) mike: hold any shorts, 55.50 was bid up, its key up here
(May 03-12:13) mike: mkt lost momentum, but bulls in charge for now as long as 55.50 held
(May 03-12:14) mike: if 55.50 breaks then next bounce a sell
(May 03-12:17) mike: its going to 53.50 if a break of 55.50. nq should lead. back in 20 min,
(May 03-12:23) mike: a bounce to 2392-93 nq a good odds short
(May 03-12:39) mike: ES and NQ are 2 different animals today. the blue chips holding this up. if the ES gets to 53.50, must see nq turn up r its going lower
(May 03-12:44) mike: 2388-89 on nq should be sold if reached, its weak. 55.25 needs cleared here on bounce from 53.50 here

(May 03-13:05) mike: 12800 on dow cash, 1351.00-1350.50 on ES need reversed fast. still, a bounce then fails
(May 03-13:13) mike: 52.50 should be bought on a dip to stay in a range today, stay 2 sided. 54.50 the pivotal level above
(May 03-13:23) mike: a push to 50.50 on this move likely if 52.50 goes, nq a drag
(May 03-13:31) mike: finally 50.50 met. cover daytrade shorts, mkt in trouble unless 53.50 cleared/ held on a dip.
(May 03-13:32) mike: 52.50-53.00 should fail now if going under 50
(May 03-13:38) mike: 52.50 failed so far, a test now of 50.50 that gets reversed should bring in buyers the way it acts today
(May 03-13:42) mike: not interested in longs, rally or not, the action is poor
(May 03-13:46) mike: the bounce failed just under 52.50, then easily broke... 1347.75-1346.75 is key below, that could get a short covering move going

(May 03-13:58) mike: dow cash finally was drug dn to test its early low, so far held , NQ trying to firm up. it looks like 50.50 now is resist, needs cleared then held on a dip to get a change of trend. sell below

(May 03-14:03) mike: 2 pt bounces failed on the way dn. the bounce to 50.50 the 3rd one. if 50.50 cleared, a reversal up could occur here for a bit
(May 03-14:14) mike: the 1347.75-1346.75 zone tested. We'll see 1340.50 and maybe back to 1335 if this continues so avoid longs for today unless 1350.50 is cleared.
(May 03-14:20) mike: 46.75 was quickly reversed, but still another 2 pt bounce failed, need more gusto than that
(May 03-14:35) mike: 48.25 area needs held, then get over 50.50 to change this stair step pattern

(May 03-14:47) mike: the 46.75 held 3 times, its good supp, must hold or the mkt stays trend dn until last 35 minutes of stock trading, 40.50 next key supp, and unless 50.50 is cleared./ held on a dip they stay in bottom side of a range.

(May 03-14:56) mike: 1341.00-1340.50 on ES, 2270.50-2368.75 NQ should be seen if hold under 48.0 , 2381 nq

(May 03-15:03) mike: nq has good supp 2376-74 , it lead the way dn, if it gets going the ES will follow , next dip should get bid up quickly , or not good
(May 03-15:15) mike: a pullback should hold 48 to keep going , 50.50-51.00 resist
(May 03-15:20) mike: 50.50 not cleared, 48.50 must hold on the dip
(May 03-15:25) mike: a low in, as long as 48.50 area on es, 2380 on nq hold on a dip , back i trend up towards 52.50 or more
(May 03-15:29) mike: 60ema at 51.75 the key end of day. need to get over that on a close or this just a bounce . the 50 area needs held to get thru
(May 03-15:33) mike: last hour rally, 30 min left, it can go thru 52.50 =if= 50.25 holds / a rejectin n break of 50 is bearish.
(May 03-15:34) mike: na, 51.75 to the tick. its key end of day
(May 03-15:39) mike: that 51.75 and 12800 on dow cash look like transition areas. 48.50 area ned to bounce from or bad close
(May 03-15:42) mike: battle between 49.50 and 51.75 end of day. bears in charge under resist
(May 03-15:51) mike: 54,50 in cards still. 51.00-50.50 should hold
(May 03-15:56) mike: its the 53.50 that was in play early thats resist here/ exit if long
(May 03-15:57) mike: have a good rest of the day.

 

 

 

Monday- May 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

May 2, 2011 9:17 mike: very good news bin ladin be gone. mkt has drifted dn since the spike to 1373. 69 was a transition to dn side and good resist
May 2, 2011 9:22 mike: this could be an event that makes a mkt top, nasdaq most vulnerable to drop
May 2, 2011 9:36 mike: 66.00-66.50 resist sold, a short under to 63
May 2, 2011 9:37 mike: daily gap filled
May 2, 2011 9:39 mike: 61 first good supp, 58 a must hold
May 2, 2011 9:46 mike: 6400-64.50 good resist
May 2, 2011 9:55 mike: ISM index top of the hour.

May 2, 2011 10:07 mike: 65.50-66.50 good resist. needs cleared / held to avoid deeper drop to 51 or 58
May 2, 2011 10:19 mike: if 64.50 holds, can get to 66.50 . if broken, back to the low
May 2, 2011 10:29 mike: 65.25 needs held now , or reversal occurs at resist
May 2, 2011 10:37 mike: 65.75 area needs held or a roll over from up here
May 2, 2011 10:42 mike: 67.50 was transition pre open, small short under tht
May 2, 2011 10:43 mike: 65.25 needs broken on push lower here
May 2, 2011 10:51 mike: 66 held, NQ got turned around well and leader up. but good resist just above. 65.25 breaks this trend
May 2, 2011 10:58 mike: 67 a small 123 top, 67 shouldnt be exceeded held IF 65.25 breaks thru

May 2, 2011 11:03 mike: a small pop off 65.25. thats key to keep upside intact ,
May 2, 2011 11:14 mike: slowed down but a third try at 67 needs to stick. if 65.25 breaks, 2410 on NQ, the trends change and quick drop possible
May 2, 2011 11:22 mike: topped, 65.50 resist now
May 2, 2011 11:25 mike: trapped longs and those wanting to take profits, a bounce back is a gift to sell
May 2, 2011 11:39 mike: a bounce to 64.50-65.25 zone should be turned dn if gets back there, 61 key to bounce from, or 58 gets a test
May 2, 2011 11:41 mike: i said there could be a quick drop if 59.25 broke, n its now trend down under 64
May 2, 2011 11:50 mike: 61 met. 58 next if 63 not cleared
May 2, 2011 11:58 mike: the 6.50 pt drop off the high is biggest pullback in 2+ weeks by 2 ticks. bulls and bears both looking to sell strength now, the bounce off 61 should not hold

May 2, 2011 12:21 mike: that 62.50 should be a lid on a bounce, 2406 on NQ. 58 in the cards it looks if no quick up here
May 2, 2011 12:26 mike: opposite of late, bounces just 1.75 pts or so. 58.50 just missed, nq should continue to lead
May 2, 2011 12:34 mike: 12800 on dow cash brought in some buying, still, to break dnside momentum, 58.50 needs cleared/ held on a dip
May 2, 2011 12:45 mike: NQ had / has supp at 2393.50 that it bounced from. and dow cash at 12800. The ES area is 55.50-55.00. / a top is in on the Bin Laden news last night, from 60.00 to 73.50 in a 30 min bar. , downhill since. a bounce from that supp has 61 area to clear, just to get a trading range and avoid big reversal day
May 2, 2011 12:59 mike: 58 held on a dip so far. there could be a scalp long there if tested n stall, turn up.. if broken then to 55.50-55.00 area , 61-62 area a better short tho around 61 area

May 2, 2011 13:21 mike: i need to be away 45 min. 60.50-61.00 a key to clear hold .

May 2, 2011 14:18 mike: 62.50 key late day. 61 needs bid up or to 59 they go
May 2, 2011 14:26 mike: 58.75 should get a test
May 2, 2011 14:30 mike: a bounce a short under that 62 area still, 2410 nq , to go back to the lows or lower, 12800 dow cash main focus.
May 2, 2011 14:49 mike: a move to 58 if 60.50 not cleared . if 60.50 cleared, not going there
May 2, 2011 14:58 mike: 58 met, lock in profits

May 2, 2011 15:00 mike: 39.00-59.50 r now , a hold under 58, starts move to 55.50 , then 51 is a key area if it lets loose
May 2, 2011 15:01 mike: 59.00-59.50 r, typo
May 2, 2011 15:11 mike: 12800 on dow held. its key obvious here. this 59.50-60./00 needs pushed thru or it could break late day
May 2, 2011 15:15 mike: lows tested, feeble bounce. 59.50 needs cleared / held on dip its still in trouble
May 2, 2011 15:26 mike: very orderly w/o any fear of them not coming back... a break of 57.50, 12800 Dow could scare longs. only a run over 59.50 gets shorts covering
May 2, 2011 15:31 mike: 55.50-55.00 needs, a break gives 51.00 as key or not good
May 2, 2011 15:31 mike: 57.50-58.00 now resist
May 2, 2011 15:35 mike: under 30 min left, a bounce possible but 55 area should be tested first , 58 key above now
May 2, 2011 15:38 mike: 55.50-50.00 met,, might be it.
May 2, 2011 15:39 mike: 57.50-58.50 resist needs cleared still
May 2, 2011 15:48 mike: 55 met, end of day 56.50 needs cleared, held on try to turn up. have a good rest of the day.
May 2, 2011 15:57 mike: a close back under 58 a negative , 56.50 needs held still to avois the drop to the 54,50 or 51 area
May 2, 2011 15:57 mike: take care

 

 

 

Friday- April 29, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 29-10:01) mike: swing trade short at 58 ,high should not be cleared now. 54.50 supp 1. , 57 resist on bounce
(Apr 29-10:17) mike: 57.25 r, 56.25 needs held to avoid drop
(Apr 29-10:24) mike: 57.50 as far as bounce should go , 56.50 needs held or they break lower.
(Apr 29-10:30) mike: 56.50 held so far, its key now. a test of high possible before reversal if 57.50 cleared
(Apr 29-10:32) mike: nq roll over, this should roll over if 57 not held
(Apr 29-10:36) mike: 12800 on dow cash a dbl top so far,
(Apr 29-10:43) mike: there must be a lot of shorts covering to keep this up. 58.00-58.50 still strong overhead. if 56.50 is broken, a drop to 54.50-54.00 key , must reversed up fast if reached
(Apr 29-10:53) mike: 58 rejected, but 56.50 has been well bid, another test would be key, and would needs a quick bounce to avoid a break lower. if they hold 57.25 here, trends stay up and 58 could be cleared

(Apr 29-11:08) mike: 3rd rejection of 58. a 4th should get thru 57.25 good supp, trend supp level.
(Apr 29-11:18) mike: will need push over 58.50 to avoid top and break out higher , a break of 57 gets some pressure on dn side
(Apr 29-11:24) mike: 57 caught bid. NQ different , 57 needs held to have any chance of getting thru 58.50 now , pressure on if broken
(Apr 29-11:30) mike: es looks like it wants to go higher, nq the opposite... ,
(Apr 29-11:40) mike: as long as 57 on ES and 12800 on dow cash hold on a pullback, no damage done. even tho stuck at 58area
(Apr 29-11:43) mike: going to the moon. 58.50-58.00 zone now needs held as new supp, or a bounce after will be sold
(Apr 29-11:51) mike: need to shoot higher off 58.50 or higher to keep going.
(Apr 29-11:54) mike: 58.75 spring up, that area is key to stay trend up
(Apr 29-11:58) mike: amazing strength in face of very overbought mkt. but trends and momentum are up. unless/ until they slip back under 58.50-58.00 area. a bounce fails if that transition area not defended up here

(Apr 29-12:12) mike: 58.50 was bought, needs a push thru 59.50 , stay over 59 now
(Apr 29-12:21) mike: if 59 is reached, and not reversed up fast like what has been happening, a lunchtime high in place
(Apr 29-12:26) mike: 59 held, not the same fast push higher yet 60 needs cleared soon , 59 key trend supp now
(Apr 29-12:34) mike: 62 area would be next, still in bull mode over 59.50 now
(Apr 29-12:49) mike: off the low, the grind higher had dips on 1.50 and 1.25 pts. so as long as a dip of that much holds the grind up continues. if more than that, then dynamics start to change, buyers up here will get skittish
(Apr 29-12:59) mike: 1 pt dip so far held. 59.000 just below is 20ema on 5 min chart, last pullback low, and 1.50 pts off high, thats key if no run up to a higher high here

(Apr 29-13:20) mike: something holding this up. odd action, 59.00 at most needs a spring back p on a test
(Apr 29-13:28) mike: if they get to 5900-58.50, look for quick push higher there , it must. NQ is good as long as 2409 defended ,
(Apr 29-13:37) mike: 62 still possible, 59.75 supp tp stay over now
(Apr 29-13:52) mike: at this point, not interested in a long , a test of high should be sold

(Apr 29-14:06) mike: 60.00-60.50 should be sold if reaches on bounce from supp
(Apr 29-14:16) mike: 58.50 area also where 60ema is now, cluster there, key for day end.
(Apr 29-14:33) mike: well, mkt will be okay as long as 58.50 held, the dow sure struggled ip above, but to turn down the supp needs broken. careful trying to short unless/ until break, bulls in charge over 58.50 for now
(Apr 29-14:39) mike: 60.25-59.75 a buy , to 62 or a bit above
(Apr 29-14:42) mike: need to hold n run up again here , or gets toppy
(Apr 29-14:49) mike: 59.75 needs to hold, a pop to 61.50-62/00 should be about it on a bounce
(Apr 29-14:51) mike: any bounce now a short, esp if 61 tested
(Apr 29-14:56) mike: they trying to firm up, a 123 type top possible if can get 1 more push higher,

(Apr 29-15:00) mike: top, a bounce a gift short
(Apr 29-15:08) mike: at supp, could bounce, but will be a short even if. just looked at daily spreadsheet, several sell sigs , worse if a close under 58 area here / 60.00-60.50 resist needs cleared/ held to push higher into close
(Apr 29-15:19) mike: nq dbl top with wed high also. big resist, might not see for awhile on close dn here
(Apr 29-15:23) mike: 12800 on dow cash is also kinda key too. if goes any further, things are changing short term
(Apr 29-15:26) mike: if they bounce, it'll be a short anyhow, 330pm move can accelerate
(Apr 29-15:32) mike: 58.75 pivotal on bounce late here, a close over that and 12800 to stay out of trouble. have a nice weekend

 

 

Wednesday- April 27, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 27-09:01) mike: they have changed the fomc announcement to 12:15 and putting in chairman to speak at 2:15
(Apr 27-09:05) mike: the announcement is 12:30 not 12:15
(Apr 27-09:17) mike: 44 area will be key to hold on a pullback
(Apr 27-09:29) mike: this ''FedTV'' thing is new to me. will have to be disciplined today for sure, 44 key early
(Apr 27-09:42) mike: dbl tops on daily ,
(Apr 27-09:49) mike: as long as 44 area not broken/ held there is no damage done.

(Apr 27-10:00) mike: no fear, under 46 a sell to 42
(Apr 27-10:09) mike: 42.50 held but still a short , 44.50 area resist
(Apr 27-10:18) mike: 42 reached. 43.50=44,00 now trend resist on a bounce
(Apr 27-10:30) mike: 43.50 sold, it needs cleared/ held to get some pressure off
(Apr 27-10:34) mike: 40.50-39.50 will need quickly reversed, or 37 possible . still a bounce shouldnt get far
(Apr 27-10:40) mike: should get a short cover bounce on test of 41.00-40.50 soon
(Apr 27-10:52) mike: need a push over 43.50-44.00 to take pressure off
(Apr 27-10:55) mike: puts bought yest with ES at 45 area covering at 40.50-39.50 zone , or trail stop on part
(Apr 27-10:58) mike: small supp at 37.00, then 35.00-34.50 major for today . a 1.50-2.25 pt bounce should fail

(Apr 27-11:01) mike: targets met. NQ trying to firm up. but ES still not out of trouble yet
(Apr 27-11:05) mike: i'm not crazy about the long side up here, but if a bounce is more than 2.50 pts, then that 40.50-39.50 zone should hold.
(Apr 27-11:08) mike: 1.75 pts on bounce so far, a push thru 43 needed to get this turned round n try to bottom out
(Apr 27-11:20) mike: 42.50 should be bounce high if going lower.
(Apr 27-11:21) mike: 12600 on dow cash also pivotal resist just abve
(Apr 27-11:21) mike: back in 10 min
(Apr 27-11:27) mike: fed announcement in 30 min, standing aside for now
(Apr 27-11:45) mike: pressure not off just yet. 43 resist. 41.25 a small transition level, must reverse up on a test in pre fed chop, scalp long if fast

(Apr 27-12:07) mike: wedge on dow cash. , 43 needs exceeded/ held , a break to 41.50 if 42.50 breaks . fed at 12;30pm
(Apr 27-12:18) mike: so ffar the day range same as yest. after fed, should be sellers if 46-47 reached, buyers at 40.50-39.50 , a key supp now
(Apr 27-12:35) mike: 44 and 2395 on NQ lids to sell against
(Apr 27-12:38) mike: hold off shorts unless 46-47 reverse, a dip should hold 43 area
(Apr 27-12:44) mike: sell 46-47 for scalp to 44 area, tight stop
(Apr 27-12:45) mike: should test 44 area then bounce
(Apr 27-12:48) mike: this bounce needs to get over 46 or 3 tops , careful up there , good resist
(Apr 27-12:49) mike: no oompf off 44 area, good offers above

(Apr 27-13:00) mike: top of the 2 day range, bids get pulled, 44 key
(Apr 27-13:04) mike: 44.25 was bid up, that area must hold, still 90 min till the bernanke Q/A
(Apr 27-13:20) mike: 45.50 needs held now, trend move as long as held , 44,50 if not key
(Apr 27-13:28) mike: 45.50 held so far, the NQ at 2400-2402 area good resist there. a short on a test that stalls/ rejected
(Apr 27-13:39) mike: 46.50 matched again and sold, NQ sold at its resist. those are tops, 44.50--44.00 has been broken/ held, thats key below, a hold under 44 starts new dn trend towards 42 again
(Apr 27-13:51) mike: bernanke in about 25 min. good resist up here, but pull back again to 44.50 area should hold, a pop higher seems likely ,

(Apr 27-14:16) mike: sell 47-49 if reached . toppy
(Apr 27-14:17) mike: 44.50 major intraday
(Apr 27-14:27) mike: the 44 stopped last 2 pullbacks, the 60ema on 5 min cart there too. another test should hold/ reverse to keep strong. if broken, the highs in most likely for awhile
(Apr 27-14:36) mike: good bounce off supp. bulls in charge until broken
(Apr 27-14:38) mike: a test of 47-48 should be sold into, tight stop at worst
(Apr 27-14:49) mike: getting over 47 area and holding should be hard to do, 2402 on NQ. but if it does, 49.50-50.50 area is possible yet if those levels not rejected again . 45.50 needs held
(Apr 27-14:52) mike: 45.50 bought, its the key supp now
(Apr 27-14:57) mike: 49.50-50.50 in the cards if 47 held

(Apr 27-15:08) mike: this should hold 47.50-46.75 zone, at most, to stay strong
(Apr 27-15:14) mike: can still see 49.50-50.50 area if tht 48 can hold up here , a reversal up there possible , 48 needs held to do so
(Apr 27-15:23) mike: 49.50-50.00 well offered, a turn dn from that zone possible, but this is bullish over 48 area
(Apr 27-15:30) mike: 50.00 sold, but 49 should hold to stay strong herd mentality
(Apr 27-15:32) mike: dont fad this, 52 area next
(Apr 27-15:36) mike: 50 area is trend up supp end of day. 1352.50-1354.00 last resist before 1358 area
(Apr 27-15:42) mike: 54 met but this should keep going into the close, 58 area next , 52.50 area now supp
(Apr 27-15:46) mike: 52.50 trend supp, 12700 dow cash too. a close above needed or deeper drop 48 first good supp
(Apr 27-15:49) mike: 48 area key overnight. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Tuesday- April 26, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 26-09:28) mike: 35.50 small, the 33.50-33.00 supp 1 now,
(Apr 26-09:38) mike: sell under 37
(Apr 26-09:40) mike: 34 .25 target 1, 3600-36.50 good r
(Apr 26-09:44) mike: big number at 10am / 34 area needs held
(Apr 26-09:53) mike: 34.50 key supp now, 1340 on SPX reached, gap up , so early low must hold or a reversal ip here occurs
(Apr 26-09:58) mike: 36.50 old resist looks pivotal , needs help. consumer confidence in 1 minute

(Apr 26-10:03) mike: if 36.50 not defended, a bounce after should fail / 39.50-40.50 above very key
(Apr 26-10:07) mike: a high should be in, sell up here
(Apr 26-10:15) mike: a test of high should fail , 37 area resist under high, a break of 34 turns this to a top if broken n not reversed right away
(Apr 26-10:28) mike: resist at 39.50-40.50, but as long as 38 area holds no damage done. a trend up over 38
(Apr 26-10:44) mike: 39.50 should hold, 43.50-45.00 area next
(Apr 26-10:54) mike: 39.50 was a big resist coming in to tday, and now is good supp on pullback. trend day in gear, a break of 39.50 that not reversed quickly, only then does it change

(Apr 26-11:06) mike: stalling out up here a bit, 41.00 area need a quick bounce to push higher
(Apr 26-11:15) mike: ES held over 41 so far, that and also NQ needs to stay over 2393 area at the most to keep grinding higher , if broken then a chink in upside
(Apr 26-11:26) mike: 41.25 area is trend supp now. 44 is a key resist just above, NQ needs to get going again to get to or thru there ,
(Apr 26-11:32) mike: this has been a slow grind higher w/o much of a dip, a 1.50 point dip should be held to keep this going
(Apr 26-11:35) mike: 42..75 supp now, needs to spring higher if ES gets there
(Apr 26-11:42) mike: 44 was poked over twice n rejected, first thing its done wrong all day. the dip held 42.75, 42.75-42,25 a ''must hold'' now , to keep the trend up action going
(Apr 26-11:59) mike: 44 supp now, 46 is next on upside, 2402-ish on NQ

(Apr 26-12:13) mike: 46 reached, 2402 NQ. those should be hard to get over and stick. but a long as the 44 area is not broken, trends and momentum in favor of bulls, IF that 44 area breaks, then the trend up gets a shakeout and 42.50 key then
(Apr 26-12:16) mike: a little 123 top at 2302 area on NQ, 2399-98 needs reversed up there
(Apr 26-12:27) mike: 44 tested, just a 2 point dip but a good offer above., 45 needs cleared / held to get another push higher,
(Apr 26-12:49) mike: NQ rolled over from its 123 top, easier trade than ES , 2399 wold need cleared and stick

(Apr 26-13:00) mike: that 43.50 is 20ema on 5 min chart. there could be another push higher from that area. is so, a test of 46-47 high area should be sold , NQ still should lead and be easier to trade
(Apr 26-13:14) mike: if 42.50 is broken, then 40.50-39.50 is the big area intraday now to hold . 43.75 resist on ES,2392 NQ
(Apr 26-13:23) mike: 43.75 just missed , but 42.50 is the key area up here, needs held to stay in good shape or then 40.50-39.50 is in the cards, which should hold or else a top in place for today at least . back in10 min
(Apr 26-13:31) mike: bids dried up, a top should be in , puts bought they are cheap
(Apr 26-13:49) mike: 42.50-43.00 a transition resist, needs cleared/ held on dip to avoid more dn side

(Apr 26-14:05) mike: 43 failed so far, mkt not comfortable up here, yet , 40.50-39.50 still key below, would expect short covering bounce near there if a stall or quick reversal
(Apr 26-14:16) mike: mkt got footing, a pullback should hold 42 area , NQ has been leading both ways,
(Apr 26-14:33) mike: struggling a bit up here, 43 needs held n quick upturn on a test
(Apr 26-14:38) mike: a deeper pullback might be a buying opportunity, up here is not a good risk reward place to get long
(Apr 26-14:55) mike: dow cash reversed 12600 for a little dbl top , 42.50 could get test if 43.50 goes

(Apr 26-15:05) mike: if dow can stay over 12600, ES over 44, now, mkt is still strong / a break under 43.75 will turn this down
(Apr 26-15:13) mike: 43.75 held , 12600 holding.. 12600 dow, 44 es must hold a dip or a reversal down
(Apr 26-15:21) mike: still good supply, pulling of bids, around 45.50-46.50. thats it for the bounce if 44 breaks, 12600 dow cash
(Apr 26-15:26) mike: must turn right back up here, next bounce is a short in any case
(Apr 26-15:34) mike: the way this day has gone since the gap up/ break out / makes this set to make a good sized move lower
(Apr 26-15:38) mike: last 30 minutes 44 area will need cleared/ held to try a bounce, watch NQ action, still leading the moves , trade 5 contracts for every 2 ES contracts
(Apr 26-15:46) mike: 60ema on 5 min chart at 42, a close under that makes this break out suspect. the ones buying the dip might not be getting instant gratification and another higher high. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday- April 25, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 25-09:13) mike: new home sales at 10am.
(Apr 25-09:47) mike: initial supp was tested/ reversed and is key now,
(Apr 25-09:57) mike: initial supp to initial resist. number in 3 min
(Apr 25-09:59) mike: 31.75 looks pivotal

(Apr 25-10:04) mike: dbl top at resist , 34 needs cleared / held
(Apr 25-10:08) mike: 32.50 shouldnt be exceeded if going to break initial supp soon
(Apr 25-10:19) mike: 2377-2379 good resist on nq
(Apr 25-10:20) mike: 32.50 ES
(Apr 25-10:23) mike: 30.50 old supp now resist on a bounce,
(Apr 25-10:35) mike: 28.50 was a small supp, 26.50-25.50 is more important , if 30.50 nt cleared/ held, thats next
(Apr 25-10:38) mike: slinky patterns the 2372 area on NQ is key there, then 2367 area
(Apr 25-10:54) mike: a break of 2372 on NQ should pull the mkt down , test 26.50-25.50 ES , must get over 30.50 , 2376.5 nq, to avoid

(Apr 25-11:04) mike: 2372 NQ was tested, reversed up. still can get another drop if 29.50 on ES not cleared soon
(Apr 25-11:14) mike: 26.50-25.50 area should give a small bounce, but they are not going to hold, NQ resist at 2374.50 , 29 area on ES
(Apr 25-11:36) mike: very slow, last thursday range was just 5.25 pts, would expect the reversal at a major area to be the start of a bigger move lower. a pullback from under 1330 area should occur or a low is in for a bit
(Apr 25-11:55) mike: 29.75 is uptrend supp, needs held of low could get a test

(Apr 25-12:11) mike: uptrend losing gas here, 32.50 next good resist if keeps going, a dip should stay over 29.75 area or this turns over
(Apr 25-12:12) mike: back in 15 min
(Apr 25-12:28) mike: if 30.50 breaks, a turn dn to 29.75 or so
(Apr 25-12:37) mike: need to stay over 30.50, to snail crawl higher, or reverse happens
(Apr 25-12:44) mike: sell against 31.25
(Apr 25-12:52) mike: too quiet to be aggressive, kill this if short

(Apr 25-13:09) mike: too much complacency, a drop to 26.50-25.50 could happen this afternoon if 1330 breaks, no quick reversal
(Apr 25-13:32) mike: i'd do audio updates but nothing is happening. to get anything going on upside, 2378 area on NQ and 31.50 on ES both needs cleared, held on a dip. 1330 area needs held or then the move gets reversed .
(Apr 25-13:34) mike: a dip to 31 should hold now to push towards 32.50 area

(Apr 25-14:03) mike: 32.50 met. still, trends up on dip over 31.75 now
(Apr 25-14:12) mike: the big resist not far above, 32 area hold then stair step to 12500 dow cash,
(Apr 25-14:13) mike: if the 31.25 level is seen, then a bounce after should fail.
(Apr 25-14:15) mike: i have to be away a bit. view 31.25 as key to stay over to keep uptrend and avoid a reversal
(Apr 25-14:54) mike: 31.25 met, must hold

(Apr 25-15:11) mike: 31.25 a short
(Apr 25-15:15) mike: 2377 area on NQ , 29.50 on ES need held or it gets some momentum
(Apr 25-15:28) mike: NQ stayed just over 2377, ES stayed over 1330. not much upside from here, but safe unless those levels are broken
(Apr 25-15:38) mike: 31.25 should hold on a dip now to keep from a move back to 30 area
(Apr 25-15:49) mike: that 32.50-33.00 zone well offered, 2382 on NQ a key area rejected too. mkt not on very strong ground up here. have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Thursday- April 21, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 21-09:32) mike: sellers at 35.50-36.50, 30. area supp
(Apr 21-09:41) mike: philly fed release 10am.
(Apr 21-09:46) mike: gap filled, still a pop will be sold , nq especially
(Apr 21-09:56) mike: that 30.50 needs held , ot 27.50 area , philly fed in 4 min

(Apr 21-10:04) mike: 30.50-31.00 resist
(Apr 21-10:14) mike: a drop to 27.50 area would be bought right away and run back up. , toppy acting at resist
(Apr 21-10:22) mike: a hold over 30 is bullish , a dip should hold there , or sellers take over if 30 not quickly reversed
(Apr 21-10:25) mike: 32.50 resist needs cleared / held now to keep going,
(Apr 21-10:30) mike: sellers at 32.50, a short under it , 2376 nq dbl top
(Apr 21-10:34) mike: a bounce off 30 needed or its topped
(Apr 21-10:37) mike: still a short unless resist cleared , 27.50 key below
(Apr 21-10:50) mike: if 29.75 holds, they could pop up again, but acting toppy under 32.50
(Apr 21-10:56) mike: 30 held so still in stair step up/ trading range still. no damage done unless thats broken, held on a bounce

(Apr 21-11:01) mike: 32.50 still a rock to get over/ hold. dips to 20ema on 5 min chart is trend supp until broken, at 30.50 now
(Apr 21-11:10) mike: 30.75 , 1 tick over 20 ema. a dip should go no further, it cannot get over 32.50 which is key up here
(Apr 21-11:28) mike: trend up move can get wings
(Apr 21-11:29) mike: 31.00 is 20ema supp supp now
(Apr 21-11:34) mike: 32.50-32.00 supp now, needs held. 1 more pop to 35.50-36.50 should be sold, major above
(Apr 21-11:43) mike: 32.50 held and is pivotal now. needs held or mkt starts rolling over
(Apr 21-11:54) mike: stair step up as long as 32.50-32.00 holds. with 35.50-36.50 above , 32 area the key to stay over to stay bullish trend up

(Apr 21-12:01) mike: stalled out, careful long now, 32 area must bring a bounce of that a high
(Apr 21-12:24) mike: 20ema at 32.25. this is a cigar pattern. mkt is bullish as long as 32.225 holds still
(Apr 21-12:30) mike: a push thru 33.50 to get a move towards 35.50,-36.50. 32.25 must be held now and pop them over 33.50, or a reversal occurs
(Apr 21-12:45) mike: its holding up by a thread , momentum and trends up , a break under 32.25 would start to shake the tree, no damage done until then
(Apr 21-12:59) mike: selling next pop, upside limited , and a break of 32.50-32.00 could bring a bigger slide

(Apr 21-13:04) mike: a scalp only on short until 32.50 area broken , if high not in, a token higher high should reverse
(Apr 21-13:14) mike: a pop to 34 or higher still possible if we hold here, 32.75-32.25 a good bid, needs held or this move begins to crack
(Apr 21-13:21) mike: its topped, sell bounce if not short
(Apr 21-13:24) mike: nq has tops at 2378, that is key above. a failure at 2375 -76 area there puts pressure back on
(Apr 21-13:36) mike: 2375 on NQ still resist. the 31 level next key supp, 60ema on 5 min chart and pivotal early as a support
(Apr 21-13:51) mike: 32.25-32.75 resist, needs cleared and held on a dip or 31 can be seen still

(Apr 21-14:02) mike: NQ failed just under 2375 again, ES stuck at small resist. but not breaking down yet in a slooow mkt. Those resist need taken out to spark any buying interest
(Apr 21-14:07) mike: this should follow dow cash lower. next week i will be able to do audio updates again. the last 2 weeks busy here .
(Apr 21-14:11) mike: size bid 31.25-31.00, need to spring higher on test of that
(Apr 21-14:21) mike: nq failed again under 2375, 32.50 on ES so far. 1 pt range. hard to trade this. , will thin out more in an hour. the VIX , and proxies , are way low. TVIX should jump next week after holiday.
(Apr 21-14:35) mike: 32.25 should hold, 2375 on nq. if going higher. 33.50 can be tested if this holds up here. that likely gets sold
(Apr 21-14:47) mike: next pop will be sold if there is one here, sell a bounce you'll get em back
(Apr 21-14:53) mike: 31.50-31.25 well bid, a test/ break needs reversed right away and must or a bigger pic top could be in

(Apr 21-15:02) mike: should see 30.50 or lower bounces should fail, 32.75 a sell if reached n stall out ,
(Apr 21-15:13) mike: character changing, selling into bounces, not liking it up near Feb high on ES .
(Apr 21-15:18) mike: to avoid late plunge, need to reverse up from 30.75 quickly,
(Apr 21-15:32) mike: 32.25 resist, 2375 NQ need cleared, or price pattern not good and going lower. calling it a week. have a great long weekend

 

 

 

Wednesday- April 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 20-09:10) mike: if they get to 28.50-30.50 zone there should be big resist. 23.00-22.50 small supp, 18.50 area, big supp in the 16-15 area
(Apr 20-09:41) mike: 26 needs cleared / held or top here
(Apr 20-09:43) mike: 23.50-22.50 supp , nq top at 2348 old high area
(Apr 20-09:49) mike: if 12400 on dow cash holds on pullback , can get another push higher ,
(Apr 20-09:51) mike: 23-22 , then 18 area supp , 26 shouldnt be exceeded / held
(Apr 20-09:57) mike: as long as 23.50 supp holds, no damage done. 28-29 big resist if a hold over 26
(Apr 20-09:59) mike: there is big resist above. home sales number in 30 sec

(Apr 20-10:01) mike: short under 26
(Apr 20-10:02) mike: not now. 24 area should hold now
(Apr 20-10:05) mike: 25.50-25.00 at lowest to keep this going, 28-29 area strong resist
(Apr 20-10:10) mike: ok, 25.75 tested 2 times n held, thats key to hold now ,to keep uptrends
(Apr 20-10:13) mike: 28-29 strong resist, need a hold of 26.50 to get thru or start to turn dn
(Apr 20-10:18) mike: 26.50held, its trend up supp , should hold now on pullback from 29 resist / 35 area the old high should not be seen
(Apr 20-10:21) mike: if 27.50 breaks, trend change
(Apr 20-10:25) mike: 27.50 held , that key now or a high can be in
(Apr 20-10:42) mike: 27 key to stay over. gap days can be trend days, this doesnt act like it will one tho. 28.50 needs cleared, not rejected
(Apr 20-10:44) mike: a test of 25.75 needs turned right back up on this dip ,
(Apr 20-10:59) mike: we had moves up from 23.50 and again 26.50 supports, and a move down of 29 resist area. upside a bit stretched, may not be much more to go, but bulls stay in charge unless 26.50 is broken.

(Apr 20-11:09) mike: sell up here, don't be caught long if they pull the string and this drops 5 pts fast
(Apr 20-11:11) mike: 25.75 key , a little transition area this morn.
(Apr 20-11:23) mike: NQ rolled over 54 good resist on bounce there , 27.25 on area ES
(Apr 20-11:32) mike: 25.75 quickly reversed, the 20ema on 5 min there at 25.50 too. should hold on a test to stay in a strong uptrend.
(Apr 20-11:43) mike: the test held, 28.25 resist now. the gap up then churn sideways usually leads to a decent sized shakeout before a rebound / if 28 not cleared soon, that could happen
(Apr 20-11:53) mike: a dip to 26.75 should hold now,
(Apr 20-11:56) mike: 27.25 now should hold to keep pushing higher. if 29.50 cleared, its up to 31.50-32.00, 3536 the major / old high then next but that would be sold
(Apr 20-11:59) mike: 27.50 now trend supp. if not defended, next bounce a sell

(Apr 20-12:03) mike: a test of high a scalp short , well offered up there , 2357 NQ matched early high, dbl top there
(Apr 20-12:21) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart at that 26.50 level. each push higher has had less momentum than the last. a run up to 28.50 should be sold if reached, need a hold here or its toped for a bit
(Apr 20-12:32) mike: 25.50 bounce, but 2700-27.50 a sell on a stall /rejection there
(Apr 20-12:41) mike: 27 rejected fast. at the moment dbl top on NQ Dow cash, ES , -- tops there make bounces a short under the highs , 19.50 the major area below if 12440 on dow cash, 1325.50 ES break, hold
(Apr 20-12:49) mike: be short any bounce , quick rejection at 27.00, then 26.75 after that. longs wanting out

(Apr 20-13:00) mike: 23 should be seen at least
(Apr 20-13:04) mike: 25.50-26.50 good resist now.
(Apr 20-13:13) mike: 25.75 was rejected, that shouldnt be exceeded now , n held anyhow
(Apr 20-13:14) mike: lock in 1.50 points and trail stop on the rest
(Apr 20-13:25) mike: 23.00-22.50 area some supp below. 19.50 the key area. 25.75 resist now, 2251 on nq more key it looks
(Apr 20-13:29) mike: 25.50 key now on bounce, was a supp , then resist on bounce.
(Apr 20-13:32) mike: 25.50 sold. it needs exceeded/ held on a dip, to get a bounce in gear. vulnerable under that
(Apr 20-13:35) mike: 23.50 big bid should be a magnet
(Apr 20-13:53) mike: its choppy grind both ways. scalps mostly. 25.50-25.00 area should hold to push higher again

(Apr 20-14:04) mike: no go, a pop up a sell , no stick on bounces
(Apr 20-14:07) mike: if there is a bounce, load up, this is acting like trouble brewing
(Apr 20-14:16) mike: 25.50-26.00 should be it, 2353 nq , a break to 22.50 on break of 24 area
(Apr 20-14:24) mike: 25.50 a rock for resist, but if 25.50 es, 2353 NQ not reversed/ but held instead, then a last run up can occur. hard trusting new long w/ vix at 52 week low ,
(Apr 20-14:40) mike: a hold of 25.50 needed to keep upside intact
(Apr 20-14:56) mike: a dip needs to hold 25.50 now,

(Apr 20-15:08) mike: channel broke, 25.75 a short, 2353 nq good resist, weaker.
(Apr 20-15:17) mike: nq weaking in front of tech earnings. ES has to stick over 25.75 now to get out of trouble, or avoid it
(Apr 20-15:22) mike: 22.50 on break under 23.75 / 25.75 still key above.
(Apr 20-15:24) mike: have a good rest of the day. must leave early .

 

 

 

Tuesday- April 19, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 19-09:16) mike: the ES needs to stay over 1302 area or a deeper drop towards 1299-98
(Apr 19-09:44) mike: might be early high there 06.25. 2298.50 nq. 03.50-02.50 key
(Apr 19-09:47) mike: early strength sold into. 06.25 key now
(Apr 19-09:51) mike: 02.50 needs broken/ held now, then 98 area would be possible
(Apr 19-09:53) mike: high in for the morn, sell dn to 1300.50, or 98 area . 03.50-04.00 resist

(Apr 19-10:01) mike: need to clear 04 and hold to avoid test of 98 area
(Apr 19-10:07) mike: if 01.50 can hold here, a pop to test 05 or higher
(Apr 19-10:12) mike: stair step up on 5 min chart, it breaks down if 1301.50 not held . a test of high that stalls/ reverses could give a 123 type top as this should be a 2 sided day w/ limited upside , if highs cut thru then 09.50 the key area over that
(Apr 19-10:31) mike: high test and reversed, 123 tops - 2295 on nq the key resist, there . 04 break/ hold is a breaking point
(Apr 19-10:36) mike: a bounce to 04.00-04.50 area should fail now , 2292-93 nq
(Apr 19-10:43) mike: nq symmetry broken. 2287 is a bigger trend supp there about to break. a drop to 12200 on dow cash could be bought but still a short under 04 area now
(Apr 19-10:59) mike: 01.50 held 2 times now after 123 top made. another dip should be bought as long as NQ holds 2285 area, and 01.50 reversed , or 98 area may be seen

(Apr 19-11:02) mike: no buy
(Apr 19-11:02) mike: just sell bounce under 03.50 , 2289 nq a good short
(Apr 19-11:06) mike: 02.50-03.00 should be sold . nq needs to break 2285 little dbl bottom to break down.
(Apr 19-11:11) mike: 02.50 sold,1 point dip, back to 02.50. and 2289 resist on nq. odd looking pattern, a move over 03.50-04.00 needed to get this turned up
(Apr 19-11:17) mike: 98 still in the cards if 02.50-03..50 not cleared/ held soon here , instead of sold into
(Apr 19-11:20) mike: the lids on top 12200 on dow cash, 1302.50 ES, 2289 NQ. a sell under those
(Apr 19-11:29) mike: 99-98 still in cards staying, with shorts , 01.25 resist now , my error on dow cash lid, its 12220, not 12200. 12200 here is must hold or 99-98 or lower
(Apr 19-11:33) mike: bounces have been 1.50-1.75 pts, 01.50 should be as far as a bounce goes or can be turning to uptrends
(Apr 19-11:39) mike: 01.25-00.75 supp now, need to hold to keep from rolling over.
(Apr 19-11:45) mike: turned at 00.75, still looks vulnerable under 02.50 and 12200 dow cash, 2288-89 on NQ

(Apr 19-12:03) mike: 00.75 holding this up. still, 02.50 key here. if 02.50 cleared should keep going to 03.25 area before a pullback. 00.75 break starts last dip lower towards 98 area,
(Apr 19-12:03) mike: back in 15-20 min.
(Apr 19-12:31) mike: they took out 02.50 and got to next resist at 03.25 . a dip back to 01.50 needs a quick reversal or wedge break gets steam on dnside.
(Apr 19-12:41) mike: the way this is acting now, it should hold over 01.75-01.25 area and push higher
(Apr 19-12:46) mike: a push thru 03.25 resist and 2288 resist on NQ to get upside going . need to stay over 01.75 to get this move
(Apr 19-12:49) mike: ''prairie dog'' , a test of 03.50 should fail now
(Apr 19-12:53) mike: i might be wrong on that, scalp out if short , 12220 dow cash holds and its a good / key supp now

(Apr 19-13:05) mike: a dip to 03.50- 03.25 should hold now.
(Apr 19-13:14) mike: 03.50 bought. that area is key to hold now to keep pushing higher
(Apr 19-13:19) mike: scalp out 05.25 or better on longs, tighten stop to 03.50 at worst , its a key supp now . 09.50 is the key above todays 06 are highs
(Apr 19-13:23) mike: good resist there, but mkt acting well, as long as 04.25 area holds up here
(Apr 19-13:37) mike: nq is helping the ES stay up, it needs to stay over 2290.50 to stay strong. its still 04.25 on ES. trend up off 1300
(Apr 19-13:42) mike: as long as 04.75 holds they can push higher. 09.50 the next key area , 1313.68 sp500 cash gap fills
(Apr 19-13:44) mike: a pullback to 05.50 area supp now, would need turned right back up.
(Apr 19-13:48) mike: NQ dbl top, 2294 needs held there, 05.50 maximum on ES
(Apr 19-13:54) mike: its getting a bit stretched up here but 09.50 should be tested as long as 06 holds , then a decent sized drop occurs off that area. this can last a bit longer , 2pm or until 220-240pm timeframe
(Apr 19-13:56) mike: if 05.00-05.50 breaks, then trend breaks and next bounce would set up a short , still holds in there if held

(Apr 19-14:01) mike: lost its mojo. 06 must hold to get 1 more pop up , 2294 nq
(Apr 19-14:11) mike: 06 held, but nervous longs up there, a test of 07.75 that stalls/ reverses a short up here
(Apr 19-14:16) mike: steady trend up move , 06 the trend supp. might dip w/ NQ , but mkt stays outta trouble unless a reversal around 09.50, or 06 breaks n trend changes
(Apr 19-14:20) mike: nq made a dbl top at 2297. ES not. a hold over 07.75 needed to go for 09.50 area.
(Apr 19-14:25) mike: 220pm timeframe for an extension or pullback, nq weaker , should be leading
(Apr 19-14:37) mike: 05.50 was resist now key supp, a 2 pt dip off high and 20ema on 5 min charts. there was a good bid there, its key to stay over, or pattern turns bearish like the morning
(Apr 19-14:49) mike: 3 rejections of 1307.75 ES, 2297 NQ. those are to sell against now
(Apr 19-14:51) mike: if cleared, then possibly 09.50. but thats going to be difficult today. 05.50 must hold or this starts rolling over end of day
(Apr 19-14:59) mike: tight stop on shorts as its yet to change trend

(Apr 19-15:02) mike: buying over 06.00-05.50 might be the better play. tough call up here. sidelines for me right now
(Apr 19-15:06) mike: a 4th time should push thru up here, 09.50 still may be seen if a breakout holds over 07
(Apr 19-15:14) mike: 07.00-06.50 should hold to get to 09.50 now , a drop of more than 2 pts off the high can change this
(Apr 19-15:26) mike: 07 held, 07.00-06.50 needs defended to avoid late pullback still.
(Apr 19-15:35) mike: 06.50 held, however the ES didn't stay over 08 but for about 5 seconds. a test of 08 should be sold. if not then 09.50 still possible
(Apr 19-15:36) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Monday- April 18, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 18-09:03) mike: 14 area broken and should be on open. 11.50 resist, 2298 nq. then 14 area on es
(Apr 18-09:22) mike: a test of low give a bounce at least on some short covering. longs caught without protection. its also key at the 1298 from last week. must turn from there or 93-92
(Apr 18-09:32) mike: 02 needs cleared / held to take pressure off
(Apr 18-09:33) mike: 2285 nq resist / key
(Apr 18-09:38) mike: 99.50 resist
(Apr 18-09:47) mike: 02.50 area key on bounce
(Apr 18-09:51) mike: stays ugly under 1300
(Apr 18-09:57) mike: 98 key r now

(Apr 18-10:00) mike: 98 needs cleared/ held on a dip, its trend dn unless tht happens soon
(Apr 18-10:07) mike: 96 trend resist. 88 area next
(Apr 18-10:10) mike: 12100 on dow cash also a key supp below. the NQ is getting pounded, it should lead the way this morning
(Apr 18-10:19) mike: 96 area needs pushed thru, and not reverse right away,
(Apr 18-10:22) mike: a drp to 94.50 must hold now .
(Apr 18-10:26) mike: 94.50 held but not much gusto on bounce. sell the bounces that stall or reverse
(Apr 18-10:35) mike: 94.50 area now is key / must hold support . 1300-01 strong resist if reached , 98 needs held to get there
(Apr 18-10:39) mike: wedge, 98 needs cleared/held or more trouble
(Apr 18-10:41) mike: 98 on ES, 2252.50 NQ resist, key, mkt vulnerable unless exceeded / held on a dip
(Apr 18-10:52) mike: 92.50 area here needs defended or 88 can be in the cards on this leg dn , 2250 nq need broken too

(Apr 18-11:06) mike: 88 still in cards under 94 / nq need a break of 2252 to get get that push dn
(Apr 18-11:23) mike: need a push over 94 area then hold 92.50 at worst now. NQ had a good bid near 2522 low 3 times, then at 2255, and should hold there
(Apr 18-11:33) mike: 3rd 5 pt bounce today failed. 92.50 must hold now or back to test 12100 on dow cash
(Apr 18-11:39) mike: 93 was bought, must be lots of shorts trapped below. 2262.50 area on NQ and 96 on ES key to clear now
(Apr 18-11:43) mike: 2262.50 on NQ reversed, if just a bounce, and mkt weak, that and 96 area should be hard to clear n stay over.
(Apr 18-11:49) mike: 96 reversed, but 2 point drops then up again, 94 needs held or trends break

(Apr 18-12:01) mike: pressure back on
(Apr 18-12:03) mike: 96.00-96.50 strongresist. 94 must hold or wedge breaks
(Apr 18-12:12) mike: 94 was held, the NQ is really doing well digging out of a hole, it has a good bid on dips, a pullback that holds 2264 area there should keep the move alive instead of rolling over.
(Apr 18-12:21) mike: mkt vulnerable again, 94 break gets dn side in gear
(Apr 18-12:42) mike: tepid buying around 94, but fragile mkt . the volatility dried up for now. a hold over 96.50 or under 94 to get out of this,
(Apr 18-12:45) mike: 95.50-86.00 should be sold here to break dn
(Apr 18-12:47) mike: its 95.50-96.00, key to breaking range
(Apr 18-12:50) mike: 92.75 supp on break lower , under 95.50 resist

(Apr 18-13:06) mike: this does NOT look like bottoming action. staying under 1298 low from last week is bearish, 95.50 is resist to clear/ hold to take pressure off and try to get over 98 area . 88 still possible on a break lower
(Apr 18-13:18) mike: 94.00-84.50 resist now. 2262 on NQ is key there
(Apr 18-13:38) mike: the ES has been sideways since 1293 pullback at 1130am eastern and 1296.75 at 12:05easter. pullback low at 1293.00 at 1:15pm, a dip that holds 94 area that stalls should set up another pop up, maybe get up over 96.50 n get going . if not held, then 93 in jeopardy.
(Apr 18-13:43) mike: perfect , 94.25 should hold now its key
(Apr 18-13:48) mike: 96.50 needs push thru now. the key area today to close over is 1298.
(Apr 18-13:51) mike: NQ still has a good bid, needs a push thru 2270
(Apr 18-13:57) mike: 96.00-95.50 heed held if 98 rejected. if long exit there or tighten stops at the least

(Apr 18-14:03) mike: 96.00-95.50 need held now on a dip. 98.50 very key, cluster of numbers there , 60ema on 5 min chart is 1 of them
(Apr 18-14:10) mike: 96 held., but if another reversal up there at 98 its bearish. staying over 96 area a must now
(Apr 18-14:17) mike: 98.50 rejected. , 96 test must hold or 93 test again
(Apr 18-14:25) mike: buyers backing off around 98. needs pushed thru n held , not rejected. 1301 IF cleared/ held up there. 96.50 key to hold over
(Apr 18-14:42) mike: '98.00-97.50 needs held to keep the grind higher going now , 1301 still possible then turn dn
(Apr 18-14:46) mike: NQ still pushing higher. 1301 met, but not a fade , a dip will be bought over 98 now
(Apr 18-14:49) mike: 98 area needs to be rock solid and snap right back up if tested.
(Apr 18-14:55) mike: 2284-85 key on NQ, a 123 top possible there. 1301.75-1302.50 was a supp, now resist there. good offers there .

(Apr 18-15:02) mike: rejection at 2284 nq, 02.25 es , might be it, 1300 then 1298 supp , 98 key
(Apr 18-15:06) mike: tops on es and nq both , reversal to 98 or more if a break / hold 1300
(Apr 18-15:17) mike: 98.50 held so far. key end of day.
(Apr 18-15:48) mike: late update tonight, 98 will be key on a close, have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Friday- April 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 15-09:14) mike: per last night update ES needs to stay over 09 area. 06 is good supp that should hold or else mkt gets in trouble again. 13.50-14.25 needs cleared/ held to get to around 17 then get sold back down
(Apr 15-09:37) mike: 14.25 sold, but 11.50 is trend supp / NQ will be a short if a bounce there
(Apr 15-09:40) mike: should test 11500, high in for now
(Apr 15-09:43) mike: 11.50 broke, per update the NQ weaker position, 09 on ES key tho
(Apr 15-09:51) mike: Mich sentiment survey at 9:55am , of 09 not held , 06 area key
(Apr 15-09:54) mike: 11.75-12.25 resist on bounce now

(Apr 15-10:00) mike: 17 area
(Apr 15-10:01) mike: 12 supp now , pivotal area if seen again
(Apr 15-10:13) mike: 17 was just missed, NQ dbl top 2305. this 14 area needs held or it can be a high this morn
(Apr 15-10:23) mike: 12 small supp, needs turn up there or a high in up there
(Apr 15-10:26) mike: 14.50-15.00 needs pushed thru or it is vulnerable up here now,
(Apr 15-10:32) mike: since 1298 low yest, pullbacks have been 5.00. 3.75, 4.00, 4.50, 4.25 pts there at 1312.25 . a break of 12 area changes this here
(Apr 15-10:35) mike: 14.00-15.00 a sell if it gets there again , toppy acting after going for 17 and just missing
(Apr 15-10:44) mike: 12.50 pivotal here, roll over there or get to 14 area
(Apr 15-10:53) mike: 12.50 needs held on a dip now , should if going higher.

(Apr 15-11:00) mike: 12.50 held. still pivotal supp
(Apr 15-11:16) mike: 12.50 holds so far , 2300 on NQ has been holding, thats the key to holding up here
(Apr 15-11:23) mike: be a buyer on dip over 2300 nq, 12 area ES still , choppy but those are key now
(Apr 15-11:26) mike: 14 needs help to power higher up here , 2303 on nq
(Apr 15-11:33) mike: should be good resist up there, if long keep a tight stop at worst
(Apr 15-11:44) mike: 14.25-13.50 old resist now good supp, stair step higher unless broken, and not quickly reversed back up
(Apr 15-11:52)mike: stall at resist, 14.25-13.50 test needs reversed up

(Apr 15-12:09) mike: grinding trend up move, good offer at 17. still, trend in gear as long as 15 is not broken, held now
(Apr 15-12:15) mike: careful trying to fade this, a dip will be bought, 16 area good supp now
(Apr 15-12:18) mike: a break back under 17.50 just dents the upside, 16-15 key supp now on a dip.
(Apr 15-12:36) mike: 16.50 early high a good supp now. holding that keeps trend up. NQ really got turned around after early drop, 2307 supp there. the ''must hold'' are 15 on ES, 2304 NQ
(Apr 15-12:47) mike: we had a gap up open reverse at the initial resist areas, pulled back 4.50 ES pts, 13 NQ pts. to initial supp at 09.50 ES. its been trend up since, and stays that way unless 06.50, then 15 is broken. VIX at 15.10, huge drop but its bullish until it reverses to upside
(Apr 15-12:48) mike: 20.50-21.50 the bigger hurdle above
(Apr 15-12:58) mike: 17 area ES, 2308 nq stair step higher supp. watch 2311 on nq, a break there could start a pullback if we're going to see one. otherwise this goes for 20.50-21,.5 or so

(Apr 15-13:05) mike: 18 should hold or it starts acting toppy. , 2311 on NQ
(Apr 15-13:10) mike: need a bounce off 17 area., or a test of high that is rejected sets up a short, a scalp only tho.
(Apr 15-13:20) mike: need a push up thru 18.50 n stick , that 2311 on NQ,
(Apr 15-13:28) mike: supp at 17 here, 15.00-14.50 if broken. NQ 2304 area on that contract
(Apr 15-13:48) mike: 16.50 needs held. a run to 18.50 needs to stay up there, not rejection. option expiration could give some goofy move late day

(Apr 15-14:00) mike: sell under 2308 nq
(Apr 15-14:02) mike: 15.00-14.50 is very key supp just below. need a good bounce off that or trends changing . 18 on es and 2308 nq need cleared to avoid going there or lower
(Apr 15-14:18) mike: 15.25-14.50 on ES, 2305-04 on NQ need held to make a move higher. a dip there must get turned up with some oomph to make another move higher.
(Apr 15-14:29) mike: 17.25 should hold if going to push thru 18 and get going again. 2307 on nq same to hold here
(Apr 15-14:41) mike: 3 highs on DOW 12365-12369, a push up thru that needed soon
(Apr 15-14:42) mike: 17.50
(Apr 15-14:43) mike: 2307 held and must to go higher still, a tug o war , in this area, bulls in charge over supp

(Apr 15-15:02) mike: tough call end of day. other than the mkt stays away from trouble if ES stays over 1316.50 area.
(Apr 15-15:11) mike: triple top won out, a bounce shouldn't stick
(Apr 15-15:18) mike: 14.50 a key area to hold now, or 1313-1312 test. if 14.50 holds, a pop to 17 possible
(Apr 15-15:35) mike: a dip should hold 14.50 area now, but 17 key to get over , esp on a close. have a good rest of the day and a great weekend

 

 

 

Thursday- April 14, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

== Dentist Appointment...No Early Updates ==

(Apr 14-11:35) mike: 04 is key, a break opens door to lows , 1300 anyhow
(Apr 14-11:47) mike: 1306 on ES,, and 2300 on NQ resist above... need cleared/ held to get upside going

(Apr 14-12:01) mike: 1306.25 es, 2300.25 NQ, need push thru/ held . if not , a dip needs hold 05 area
(Apr 14-12:07) mike: trends up as long as 06.00-05.60 holds on drop
(Apr 14-12:11) mike: 06.26 held, 2300 nq held. key now or a reversal occurs. 08.50 key above, then 12.50
(Apr 14-12:36) mike: mkt has had a steady bid on dips since turning up from just under 1304. , the 08.50-08.00 needs held now, nq looking a bit tepid up here at its morning bounce high area
(Apr 14-12:43) mike: 08 and 2300 nq key now, trends intact unless broken. if broken a bounce after should fail

(Apr 14-13:00) mike: 08 reversed in a flash, 2300 on nq holding well. mkt stays bullish as long as those hold on a pullback.
(Apr 14-13:08) mike: if they keep pushing thru 1310, then 11.75-12.50 area could be seen still. a drop of 4-5 ES points could occur on a reversal up here
(Apr 14-13:14) mike: a bounce to test high should fail, bids dried up n came off pretty fast . nq key here to follow its lead
(Apr 14-13:29) mike: nq made lower high than early high, weaker than ES, a better short than ES. on a bounce, if 05 area tested on ES on 11 more push lower, it should be bought for a bounce back to 07-08
(Apr 14-13:41) mike: nq needs to get over 2300 n stick to avoid more dnside, 05 area ES on a drop
(Apr 14-13:53) mike: this should test 05.25 area again. that will be key to defend if we have a low in at 1298.25, just over that 1297.75 level

(Apr 14-14:04) mike: held above 05.50 area. if going to get back towards that 1310 area, need to defend that 06.00-05.25 area
(Apr 14-14:15) mike: mkt action much better for bulls today. short term very oversold, the gap dn open reversed at a good spot below. the only problem is the reversal/ top at good resist, and sentiment showing no fear after the early drop. so, as long as the 06-05 area holds on a drop, mkt stays bullish. if no dbl top, or reversal up there at 09 area, then 1312.50 next,
(Apr 14-14:20) mike: 07.25 small supp. needs held/ reversed up if broken
(Apr 14-14:30) mike: 08 area needs held to avoid reverse
(Apr 14-14:48) mike: good resist 2303.50-2305.50 on NQ all afternoon needs to be cleared now to avoid a better drop
(Apr 14-14:55) mike: a dip will hold, 12.50 in cards likely
(Apr 14-14:58) mike: a 2.25 pt drop as far as should go, or a high would be in

(Apr 14-15:04) mike: no damage done unless 08.75 now breaks, 12.50 next
(Apr 14-15:10) mike: 09.50 is good supp now. 12.50 just missed ,
(Apr 14-15:13) mike: if 12.50 exceeded, they can get back to 17 area
(Apr 14-15:18) mike: 13.50-14.50 fixed resist was rejected a bit, 11.50 needs held
(Apr 14-15:26) mike: held at 12.00. 1 min chart 18ema trend supp still
(Apr 14-15:32) mike: rejected again, bids getting pulled up there , 11.50 needs bought / reversed up fast
(Apr 14-15:36) mike: 11.00 is 2.25 pts off high, symmetry on way up, its now key area below , 10.00-09.50 if broken
(Apr 14-15:40) mike: 11.00 still key. it should hold for a go at 1317 area.
(Apr 14-15:45) mike: this is toppy, need to bust thru 13.50 resist or its vulnerable up here late day.
(Apr 14-15:57) mike: have a good rest of the day. 13.50 resist held , needs broken/ held for 17 area to still be possible before another top. take care

 

 

Wednesday- April 13, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 13-09:20) mike: 14 area supp 1 ,
(Apr 13-09:35) mike: r sold. 17.50 key, 14 supp
(Apr 13-09:38) mike: 15.50 needs held here
(Apr 13-09:41) mike: 15.50 ws gap fill on daily. must stay over
(Apr 13-09:47) mike: still poor action tho nq trying to hold up. 17.75 strong / key resist a top likely
(Apr 13-09:53) mike: 14 area and 12300 dow cash key early supp, 15.50-16 area resist
(Apr 13-09:56) mike: 15.50 sold, needs cleared / held
(Apr 13-09:57) mike: 12.26 area next supp

(Apr 13-10:00) mike: take partial profit 12.50, trail stop
(Apr 13-10:00) mike: 13 or better
(Apr 13-10:04) mike: 12.50 reversed, 14.00, then 15.50 resist on bounce.
(Apr 13-10:08) mike: they could bounce but it won't stick, stay selling bounces for now , 11 area breaks its not good
(Apr 13-10:27) mike: a gap day, the pullback low 45 minutes in now key to hold over, 1310.75 if broken, a move to 07.50 area will be a buy / 14 on es and 12300 dow cash resist to clear/ hold
(Apr 13-10:29) mike: 12.25 minor supp need held to stay uptrend
(Apr 13-10:33) mike: key rgt here. nq especially
(Apr 13-10:36) mike: dbl top on nq, 12.50 needs held on this , 2308 nq , now must hold there
(Apr 13-10:45) mike: nq is holding this up, the dow backed off 12300 and ES from just under 15, but a good bid on nq pop it up here. 2308 on nq a buy on a test
(Apr 13-10:54) mike: 2312 area on nq held , that and 14 area on es are supp now to keep upside going

(Apr 13-11:07) mike: toppy acting again, need very quick reversal at 14 or top up there
(Apr 13-11:10) mike: 14 is bottom of rising wedge, a must hold or the mkt turns dn on a bounce that follows.
(Apr 13-11:19) mike: could see a bounce
(Apr 13-11:20) mike: 12300 dow cash a pivotal level it looks, should't make a higher high if a bounce ,
(Apr 13-11:22) mike: just half of a day of low yesterday, vix already lower that at 1335 on es. not good
(Apr 13-11:31) mike: 11 area key to hold, buyers stick above, 09.50 supp on a break / 114 area resist on bounce
(Apr 13-11:39) mike: 09.50 met, 07.50 from yest close very key.
(Apr 13-11:49) mike: 09.50 was reversed, 11.00-11.50 wil be sold if still more to go on dnside.
(Apr 13-11:55) mike: 11.50 rejected, its key dn here to clear / hold or 07.50 in cards still
(Apr 13-11:58) mike: 07.50 and 12250 dow cash key below , a short cover area if a stall, if not its to 05 , outside day

(Apr 13-12:03) mike: 07.75 quickly reversed, a hold over 09.50-10.50 needed to stop the bleeding
(Apr 13-12:15) mike: 10.50 -11.25 area a transition area, a good cluster of resist there, key dn here .
(Apr 13-12:21) mike: back in 20 min. mkt must hold test of 07.50 off this 10.50resist
(Apr 13-12:38) mike: dow stair step dn, 11270
(Apr 13-12:41) mike: 08.50 restst , 1300.50 a major below if broken
(Apr 13-12:51) mike: plain out ugly action, ''outside'' day on ES already. the vix was under level seen at 1335 high. too much complacency. buyers trapped above at lots of areas, a bounce wont get far. 08.50 resist on this bounce. a move to test 05 *could* set up a 123 bottom to scalp a long trade, just a scalp tho as action horrible thus far

(Apr 13-13:08) mike: the 4-5 pt bounces have failed, but a dip now should hold 07.50 if a pre beige book release low in
(Apr 13-13:20) mike: stair step up off 05.00. 08.00-07.50 key to stay over, another wedge could form / break if not held
(Apr 13-13:34) mike: 07.75 bounce, it key now. needs held, push thro 09.50 from earlier as a low target. a bounce a short if not held
(Apr 13-13:47) mike: 09.00-09.50 key , if 09.50 not rejected, a push up to 11.50-12.50 possible on the upside / still under pressure unless thats exceeded
(Apr 13-13:58) mike: a dbl/ triple bottom possible. 1300.50 area gets tested if no reversal there.

(Apr 13-14:02) mike: 07.25 supp now, 123 bottom trigger there
(Apr 13-14:06) mike: to get out of trouble for a bit, need a push thru 09.50 to stick . has been good resist there for 2 hours
(Apr 13-14:09) mike: if 07 gets reversed up quickly, then a move up still possible
(Apr 13-14:17) mike: 07 no interest, a short as long as 09 not exceeded / held on dip to 05 area or lower
(Apr 13-14:27) mike: a pullback here should hold08.00- 07.50 at lowest to keep rally , a test that reverses is a buy
(Apr 13-14:31) mike: 11.50 area good resist, , 09.00-08.60 good supp on dip
(Apr 13-14:36) mike: 09.25 held, bids got pulled 11 area good resist to push thru
(Apr 13-14:43) mike: mkt bullish as long as 09.00-08.50 defended. if 11 cleared / held, 12.50 next, 17 area major above
(Apr 13-14:48) mike: 12.25 rejected. the 10.50-10.00 need held to keep going
(Apr 13-14:51) mike: 10.50 holds,its trend supp , key now.

(Apr 13-15:01) mike: 12.50 good resist to push thru, 11.00-10.50 should/ must hold or a break can occur
(Apr 13-15:04) mike: still good trend up obeying supp,112 now key to stay over.
(Apr 13-15:07) mike: 12. held on dip, but toppy, its close to a top
(Apr 13-15:11) mike: 11.75 reversed fast. trend reverse if broken/held on bounce.
(Apr 13-15:19) mike: quick reversal up. unless nq turns dn this can go to 14.75-15.50 area or higher
(Apr 13-15:27) mike: 12.50 now needs held /reversed
(Apr 13-15:36) mike: 12.50 resist now, 10.50 small supp, the 08.50 key area needs held- or this ends back around 05 or lower.
(Apr 13-15:44) mike: should be in decent shape as long as 10.50 holds
(Apr 13-15:46) mike: 14 area should be sold. on 1 more pop. 10.50 key, or 08.50 test -- i'm small short up here have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Tuesday- April 12, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 12-09:18) mike: this could be a break dn gap, 17 area needs cleared/ held on first bounce or its trouble early.
(Apr 12-09:41) mike: 11.25-10.50 zone per last nights update was reversed, .... 17 key on top
(Apr 12-09:51) mike: 13.25 needs held or 15.25 early high

(Apr 12-10:08) mike: mkt in trouble if 08.50 not held
(Apr 12-10:14) mike: 1308.50-1307.50 and 12250 dow cash are must hold areas. 10.50-11,50 good resist on bounce
(Apr 12-10:18) mike: 10.50 just missed, its key to getting bounce going
(Apr 12-10:30) mike: dbl bottom at last key 1308.50-1307.50. 12230 dow cash. should hold on a dip now , 12 needs cleared to take pressure off
(Apr 12-10:33) mike: 09.50 needs held or still soggy mkt
(Apr 12-10:34) mike: the dow cash supp is 12250, a typo earlier
(Apr 12-10:36) mike: a dead cat bounce off of a good dbl bottom.. need to move up w/ gusto, still a timid mkt
(Apr 12-10:39) mike: 10.50-11.00 area key on upside. still a bearish mkt under it
(Apr 12-10:43) mike: 07.50 supp to 10.50-11.00 area this range. stair step lower, 1311 needs cleared to change that
(Apr 12-10:46) mike: 09.50 now resist, 2297 on NQ good resist too
(Apr 12-10:47) mike: gap day can be a trend day. not good action. sell bounces that stall around resist
(Apr 12-10:53) mike: 08 now resist
(Apr 12-10:55) mike: its trend down, biggest bounce 3.25 points on ES. a move that far off low should fail to keep this going

(Apr 12-11:01) mike: these grinding type moves tend to be the case on trend days, not a lot of volatility , 08.00-08.50 resist
(Apr 12-11:08) mike: 06.50 is steep trend dn resist, nq leading lower here
(Apr 12-11:13) mike: need a hold over 06.50 to test 18 area
(Apr 12-11:15) mike: 07.50-08.50 prior supp now resist here, key on this lil bounce,
(Apr 12-11:19) mike: good resist 07.50-08.50, that needs cleared to take a bit of pressure off. 2289-2290 nq resist
(Apr 12-11:28) mike: trying to firm up. but 08 area should hold it down . if 08 area pushed thru then a possible reversal but wont go far
(Apr 12-11:40) mike: 07.50-07.00 area need held on a dip needs to turn dn soon or 11 area possible
(Apr 12-11:55) mike: bounces not sticking, this needs to stay over 07.50 area , if 1 more bounce it should be sold into. back near 2pm or thereabouts, audio of what i see when i get back

(Apr 12-13:33) mike: 1310-1311 key. the 60ema on 5 min at 11.00 and droppin, a channel line on top at 10.75. 1311 was a transition area earlier too, a early low and bounce high about 55 minutes into trading. thats key on top, 07.50 is bottom of channel , must hold or a test of low is likely. a reversal down there sets up trade on long side. back with audio in about 10 min, just returning

(Apr 12-13:45) mike: that resist a sell on retest , pretty tight stop its a key area. if 07.50 breaks, channel breaks .
(Apr 12-13:52) mike: 10.00-09.50 supp on dip from 11 resist. , nkt has a good bid on deeper drops, dont overstay either side
(Apr 12-13:54) mike: 10 held, must stay over that , 12.50 next resist
(Apr 12-13:59) mike: 10.75-10.25 should / must hold on drop from test of 12.50 resist .

(Apr 12-14:02) mike: 10.75 held so far, trends can change if 10.75-10.25 not defended
(Apr 12-14:08) mike: if 10.25 not held, next bounce a sell , thats key now. bulls in charge unless broken/ held audio on for a bit.
(Apr 12-14:23) mike: 12 area is key to stay over still. 1525 high, then 17 resist 10.50 key if not held
(Apr 12-14:34) mike: good resist 14.25, a failure to clear, and break of 1312 rolls it over. nq leader up here
(Apr 12-14:38) mike: each push to 14 on less n less momentum, should be a high
(Apr 12-14:43) mike: 11.00- 10.50 needs defended, or 08.00 test / a bounce that reverses at 13.00-13.75 a short, a 123 pattern
(Apr 12-14:47) mike: should be buyers near 08.50 if on break here. if not held a test / break of 05.25 low. nq lead dog
(Apr 12-14:57) mike: 10.25 held, but not good action. a test of 12.50-1.503 area that stalls/ reverses will be sold.

(Apr 12-15:10) mike: transition lower if 10.25 not defended. that key end of day.
(Apr 12-15:15) mike: need a push over 12 or 10.25 can break
(Apr 12-15:19) mike: longs not safe unless 12 cleared soon. if that 10.25 breaks, then 08.50 area in the cards.
(Apr 12-15:22) mike: 8.50 reached, 10.50 a short now , 05 next
(Apr 12-15:32) mike: 09 good resist now
(Apr 12-15:38) mike: a 4 point drop off bounce high should end this drop. the 10.50 area good resist on a bounce
(Apr 12-15:55) mike: mkt making short tem bottom it looks, if not in at 05.25. upside limited, but a test of low should be seen as a good spot to buy. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Thursday- April 07, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 07-09:07) mike: 32-33 certainly is still important, stall n drop 4 points pre open there.
(Apr 07-09:24) mike: 28.50-27.50 needs held to test 32-33. if that zone is broken , test 26.75 , or to 25-24 key area below
(Apr 07-09:39) mike: 2332.50 on nq key, as is 32.50-33.00
(Apr 07-09:42) mike: 33.25 need broken before a trend reversal
(Apr 07-09:48) mike: as long as 31.50 holds, no damage done, but should pull back up here
(Apr 07-09:50) mike: 2341-2343 a transition o NQ, key area
(Apr 07-09:54) mike: 33.00-32.50 supp now, , 2340 on NQ especially
(Apr 07-09:59) mike: 33.50 trend/ reversal supp

(Apr 07-10:03) mike: 35.75-36.50 good resist
(Apr 07-10:04) mike: 33.75 trend supp/ reversal
(Apr 07-10:08) mike: can bounce off 33, but high in or a test a sell
(Apr 07-10:16) mike: bounce failed, but 32.50 a transition high, needs broken soon ,
(Apr 07-10:25) mike: key, need a hold over 33 to push higher
(Apr 07-10:28) mike: ok, unless 34 is cleared. held its a sell up there to 31.5 or so
(Apr 07-10:36) mike: dow 12400 break puts pressure on
(Apr 07-10:37) mike: target reached, good resist at 32.50 area now
(Apr 07-10:40) mike: MAJOR met, a beak of 24.25 , its to 20.50 then
(Apr 07-10:44) mike: another earthquake in Japan. stay with shorts on bounces. 28 area trend resist at highest
(Apr 07-10:49) mike: key here, buyers below, a test of low a buy for a bounce,

(Apr 07-11:01) mike: stall, 28.25 trend supp, they roll over if not held
(Apr 07-11:05) mike: 26.25-25.75 area supp, 2322 on NQ supp.
(Apr 07-11:10) mike: 12400 on dow cash a resist to clear , or we can get a pullback/ drop. it should be bought if lows tested
(Apr 07-11:11) mike: 27.50 pivotal on a dip. , 2324 on nq
(Apr 07-11:18) mike: the drop to the low had good momentum. shorts likely are trapped , a test should be on less momentum , set up a good trade on long side. its a short under30.50 dn to the lows or above.
(Apr 07-11:20) mike: 2324 on nq needs broken to put pressure on
(Apr 07-11:24) mike: this might be a low if nq can not break 2324
(Apr 07-11:30) mike: that 26.75 is yesterday low. resist at 30.50 needs cleared, 2330 on nq,, its vulnerable now
(Apr 07-11:33) mike: i will be away for about 15 min or so, a test of low needs a reversal type pattern, a 123 ideally, to set up possible long.
(Apr 07-11:47) mike: careful long, good resist to get over or risky
(Apr 07-11:49) mike: 26 area needs exceeded , 2322 nq / and hold
(Apr 07-11:57) mike: 25.50-24.50 should hold. 2318-16 good bid on nq.

(Apr 07-12:01) mike: was a good setup, lost my edge. lows are in, a dip is a buy, 26 good supp, 2322 on nq
(Apr 07-12:12) mike: 12400 on dow the resist, below, 27.50 should hold, 2324 on nq , bottom should be in, a decent dip a buy
(Apr 07-12:20) mike: 30.50 key resist, 27.50 key on a drop
(Apr 07-12:22) mike: 28.50 is trend supp to stay over to stay strong , then 27.50 if not held, it should if going higher
(Apr 07-12:27) mike: 28.50 held, it looks like transition area, needs held , and 2330 nq supp
(Apr 07-12:34) mike: this was first bounce high area, before drop to test lows. a good dbl bottom in place, need to stay over 28.50 and push on thru 30.50 to get a test of high
(Apr 07-12:37) mike: there is 12400, needs to keep pushing, follow nq lead up
(Apr 07-12:40) mike: good bounce from test of 28.50 supp, nq near a big resist 2341-2343. has been pivotal week. need a clear/ hold there to keep going
(Apr 07-12:42) mike: if long exit up here, ot trail stop, 30.50 now supp

(Apr 07-13:06) mike: 12400 on dow cash pivotal. gotta get over that and the 32.50 area, and follow thru instead of buyers backing off. 28.50 needs defended on this dip to have a chance to test 32.50 and see if it can break out
(Apr 07-13:20) mike: 29.50 resist now, , 25024 can be tested
(Apr 07-13:26) mike: mkt acting toppy again poking over and back under 12400 on dow. , a test of 29.50-30.50 should be sold into on a bounce here. its not a buy unless they go to 25-24 and turn around
(Apr 07-13:43) mike: 25.-24 must be reversed fast , and get over 28.50 to get any traction ,
(Apr 07-13:48) mike: cover short area, right or wrong, not buying this tepid mkt, just selling bounces that stall out
(Apr 07-13:56) mike: 28.50 area resist. 30.50 should be key if exceeded
(Apr 07-13:59) mike: thats why shorts still better , 25 is pretty key

(Apr 07-14:01) mike: 28 area needs pushed thru, then held on a dip, otherwise vulnerable to a drop
(Apr 07-14:05) mike: there must be shorts still trapped under 25 on es, still, acts timid under 28 area
(Apr 07-14:20) mike: tug-o-war between 28 resist, 25 supp. a breakout of the range needs held on a dip to get going
(Apr 07-14:32) mike: this should follow thru lower if staying under 26.50
(Apr 07-14:48) mike: still in this range. i need to leave early, and will be away with the family tomorrow. there will be an update tonight with s/r. have a good rest of your day.

 

 

Wednesday- April 06, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 06-09:28) mike: a run up to 36 area that stalls out a short. a drop to 32area needs held/ reversed up quickly
(Apr 06-09:38) mike: 32.50 is key supp now. , a pullback must hold over that , 36.00-36.50 resist
(Apr 06-09:40) mike: 34.25 old high is supp now
(Apr 06-09:44) mike: 34.25 held , is key now
(Apr 06-09:47) mike: sell up there
(Apr 06-09:49) mike: 34.00 should hold here to go higher
(Apr 06-09:55) mike: mkt top for now, 35 area should be sold
(Apr 06-09:59) mike: 32.50 area needs held to get another push higher

(Apr 06-10:08) mike: 32.50 held, 33.75 needs held now. 35 good resist
(Apr 06-10:12) mike: toppy , a pop up 34.50-35.00 tht stall / reversal a good short
(Apr 06-10:14) mike: 31.50 in the cards before a bounce attempt.
(Apr 06-10:18) mike: 31.50 met, a bounce a sell th
(Apr 06-10:22) mike: 32.75 resist
(Apr 06-10:30) mike: that 33 should be a bounce high, but a move over 33 that holds can get to 35 area wre the selling started
(Apr 06-10:37) mike: just missed 35. that and 2340 on nq good resist on a bounce
(Apr 06-10:47) mike: a test of 32.50 should hold now, a good bid on dips, but they have dried up at 35 and above so far today
(Apr 06-10:52) mike: nq rolled off resist, es just under 35. mkt vulnerable unless cleared soon.
(Apr 06-10:58) mike: stalled out, 32.50 should hold or it breaks dn

(Apr 06-11:05) mike: strong resist 34.50-35.00, sell under on bounces , 32.50 resist now
(Apr 06-11:08) mike: same action we have had all week. nq leading lower.
(Apr 06-11:13) mike: 31.50-32.00 shouldn't be cleared / held , a test of that should be sold. 28.50 small supp
(Apr 06-11:19) mike: 29.00 -28.75 large bid, must hold there, or go for 26.0-25..50, 2320 on nq is key below also
(Apr 06-11:29) mike: 31.50-32.00 still shouldnt be cleared
(Apr 06-11:36) mike: 12400 on dow cash a target on a break of 28.50
(Apr 06-11:47) mike: 25.50 key area next if 30 not cleared
(Apr 06-11:50) mike: 2320 on NQ, 12400 Dow cash, 1328 ES all the key supp. must hold to stay in a range, n not break to 25-24 area
(Apr 06-11:56) mike: a bounce will be sold, risk on longs still , 30 resist needs cleared / held to take some pressure off

(Apr 06-12:01) mike: 28.50-29.00 resist now
(Apr 06-12:10) mike: 28.50 key here on top right now, tested yest close and quickly reversed up. a test of 12400 on dow cash turned up. a test should give a trade on long side,
(Apr 06-12:23) mike: 29 rejection. its still vulnerable under that
(Apr 06-12:26) mike: this could go for 30-31 area, if they get there it will be sold , this looks like another rising wedge in the making
(Apr 06-12:40) mike: wedge break, 28.25 needs held , 2925 r
(Apr 06-12:44) mike: 29.25 sold, , now 28.25 area key to hold over now
(Apr 06-12:49) mike: 29.50 stop on shorts, 27.50 needs reversed fast on 1 more push down / trapped in narrow lunchtime range here
(Apr 06-12:53) mike: 27.75 reversed fast, 29.50-30.00 above key resist

(Apr 06-13:00) mike: a bounce could occur, but it wont get far w/o being sold. stay with selling bounces, unless something changes
(Apr 06-13:23) mike: 30.50 is 60ema on 5 min chart, symmetry on bounce, and has been pivotal lately. if broken, the dynamics change and a dip sets up a trade on long side. 12400 area on dow cash should / must hold on a test
(Apr 06-13:33) mike: 30.50 sold. should be it for bounce, 29.50-29.00 was resist, now key to stay over or roll over
(Apr 06-13:49) mike: 28.25 supp, then 26.75 low and / or 12400 dow cash the key supp to hold
(Apr 06-13:58) mike: mkt poised to push higher if 29.50 holds,

(Apr 06-14:04) mike: need to get thru 30.50 still , stay over 29.75 now to avoid reversing
(Apr 06-14:17) mike: 30.25 support now, needs held to push higher towards 32
(Apr 06-14:20) mike: bounce high will be in if 30.25 not held.
(Apr 06-14:26) mike: the 31 area on ES, 2330 nq, 12428 on dow cash all key above, esp that area on the Dow a triple top there needs busted thru n held
(Apr 06-14:39) mike: at resist, but they stay in range as long as next dip holds 29.50 last low. 30.50 should hold if going to get to 32.50 area
(Apr 06-14:48) mike: 30.75 held on dip. 32.50 key above. 30.50 is trend line supp . so a pullback must hold that area or it breaks down.
(Apr 06-14:53) mike: as long as 31.25 held can get to 32.50-3300 area, its well offered , 2332 on nq

(Apr 06-15:00) mike: this move will stay in big range if can not get thru 32.50-33.00 near top of range, or or break 12400 [1327 area es] on bottom. 30.50 trend line key to hold intraday up here
(Apr 06-15:06) mike: should gun thru 32.50 here to keep this from reversing. 31 should / must hold
(Apr 06-15:18) mike: a move over 32.50-33.00 area can get the mkt out of toppy range bound action , 31.50 needs defended or its not going to happen
(Apr 06-15:22) mike: another failure could be terminal , careful long if 31.50 goes especially
(Apr 06-15:25) mike: i need to leave early , that 32.50-33.00 needs cleared or 12400 on dow gets a test. 30.75 is the trend line supp, key. have a good rest of the day.
(Apr 06-15:41) mike: a buy as long as trend line holds , at 31.25 and rising
(Apr 06-15:54) mike: no break of 32.50-3300, trend line at 31.50, a close dn below 31 not good

(Apr 06-16:14) mike: 28.50 big

 

Tuesday- April 05, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 05-09:14) mike: the mkt doesn't like it up at 1331 , 12400 dow cash. they won't get there and stick. sell bounces
(Apr 05-09:24) mike: resist at 26.50, 2329 nq
(Apr 05-09:34) mike: 25.00-2425 need held
(Apr 05-09:39) mike: 28.50 resist, 26.25 must hold on dip
(Apr 05-09:52) mike: 25.25 supp on ES quickly reversed, its major supp short term. 29.50-2r, then 32-33
(Apr 05-09:56) mike: dow should pull ES down , 27.50
(Apr 05-09:57) mike: this cant keep rally w/o the dow turning up

(Apr 05-10:03) mike: 25 defended again. another test would likely break to 20.50
(Apr 05-10:05) mike: sell bounce under 28.50
(Apr 05-10:09) mike: tepid bounce off 25.50 so far, dow needs turned up or mkt in trouble
(Apr 05-10:13) mike: dow turned as supp held, 26.50 , then 25.25 supp needs held
(Apr 05-10:17) mike: god resist 28.50-29.50
(Apr 05-10:25) mike: 28.00-27.50 should hold on a dip ,
(Apr 05-10:34) mike: 29.75 trend supp., if broken then a drop needs to stay ovr 28.50 to keep from acting toppy again
(Apr 05-10:37) mike: 30.50 now rens supp. was yest late high, is pivotal up here
(Apr 05-10:41) mike: 30.50 must hold or trend change , 2900-28.50 then, should be volatile, still have fed minutes this afternoon.
(Apr 05-10:47) mike: 30.50 held, its still pivotal to stay over. nq lead it up, eye on nq
(Apr 05-10:51) mike: 123 type tp, 30.50 need reversed up fast
(Apr 05-10:55) mike: 29.25-28.50 area needs held on pullback, 12400 on dow cash. should hold there if going higher

(Apr 05-11:01) mike: 29.25 and 12400 on dow cash held, key to keeping upside going , avoid deeper drop
(Apr 05-11:06) mike: a test of 31.00-31.50 needs pushed thru on this move. a rejection could start a reversal up here
(Apr 05-11:07) mike: toppy up there, a sell if tested
(Apr 05-11:13) mike: if 29.25 , 12400 dow breaks here, 28.50 should get a test, a bounce there a must . this 12400 key it looks
(Apr 05-11:17) mike: bulls in charge as long as 29.25 es, 12400 on dow cash are broken. a test of 32.50-33.25 key on top
(Apr 05-11:26) mike: need to stay over 30.50 , 32.50-33.25 is key above
(Apr 05-11:37) mike: a good bid on dips , as long as 29.25, 12400 on dow cash hold, bulls in charge
(Apr 05-11:43) mike: don't overstay longs, bids drying up above
(Apr 05-11:49) mike: 30.25 on this dip needs held
(Apr 05-11:54) mike: bounce off 30.25 , its key now, a wedge forming up here
(Apr 05-11:57) mike: 32.25-33.50 above needs pushed thru now, not rejected.. but still its bullish unless 30.25 now breaks

(Apr 05-12:00) mike: tagged resist, still 3200-31.50 area good supp now.
(Apr 05-12:10) mike: 32 held but toppy, tht might be a high if 32 goes
(Apr 05-12:22) mike: 32 area reversed. that is pivotal ip here to stair step higher. , its 2335 area on nq
(Apr 05-12:28) mike: it has been a trend up move, but now it is toppy, sell a bounce that stalls out at/under 33 area , mkt still not liking it up there at 33 very long
(Apr 05-12:30) mike: 31.50 is trend up supp, 20ema on 5 min chart holding on dips, thats key below.
(Apr 05-12:40) mike: the ES needs to get over 32.50 and stick now,
(Apr 05-12:51) mike: its in good shape staying over 32.50. 31.50 will hold if going to stay trend up, a test of 31.50 should hold , or things change intraday.
(Apr 05-12:55) mike: need a push thru 33.50 now , stay over 32 area

(Apr 05-13:01) mike: 2339 on NQ has been a lid on top there to push thru. 32.00-31.50 area still trend up supp on a dip if a failure up here
(Apr 05-13:05) mike: having a hard time as ES is up against key top of range resist. 32.00-31.50 area will hold if gonna push thru
(Apr 05-13:11) mike: this can get wings if 33.50 holds
(Apr 05-13:15) mike: mkt is in a good trend up move , going into release of Fed minutes at 2pm. expect ''profit taking'' in front of that . a test of 35.50-36.25 is next resist, should be a hard area to break / hold over. trend up supp at 32.25 now.
(Apr 05-13:30) mike: 32.25 must reverse fast, should be sold on bounce now.
(Apr 05-13:33) mike: 5th pullback to 20ema on 5 min chart. that 32.25 still key to stay over , tho a test of high should give pullback
(Apr 05-13:37) mike: losing momentum , each push higher on less momentum. a bounce to a lower high that reverses sets up 123 top, if high not in already
(Apr 05-13:44) mike: 32.25 still key supp up here, 33.75-34.00 resist key above , if stall./ reversed there
(Apr 05-13:56) mike: 5 min till fed min. 32.25 held, that is a key area still. 30.50 if broken

(Apr 05-14:04) mike: 33 needs cleared, or trouble
(Apr 05-14:06) mike: 32 area resist now, would be sold
(Apr 05-14:10) mike: 32 just missed, 2336-7on nq also resist
(Apr 05-14:18) mike: 32 sold, 2336 nq, key to get thru
(Apr 05-14:32) mike: not an impressive bounce so far, nq still under 2336, ES needs to stay over 31.50 now or it breaks ,
(Apr 05-14:35) mike: sell under 32.50, 2335-36 nq , a break of 1330.50 could get momentum
(Apr 05-14:41) mike: follow nq lead, or trade it. its a short still 2332 area . 12400 on dow key supp
(Apr 05-14:44) mike: 28.50 area small supp
(Apr 05-14:50) mike: a bounce from dn here will not hold, good offer above near 31.50 break level on a bounce , 12400 dow cash should test/ break on this leg down.
(Apr 05-14:56) mike: small bounce failed at 30.50, it was pivotal early, still trouble unless cleared/ held on a dip / 28.50 next

(Apr 05-15:00) mike: 31.50 stair step dn resist
(Apr 05-15:08) mike: 31.00-31.50 trend resist.
(Apr 05-15:11) mike: 12400 dow cash broken, it makes 30.50 key resist. bounce will fail under that. 2326ish nq
(Apr 05-15:15) mike: 25-24 area if 29.50 not cleared
(Apr 05-15:23) mike: 29.50 -30.50 resist, 2326 nq
(Apr 05-15:29) mike: resist sold. key there now , 1330 especially, 2326 on nq
(Apr 05-15:35) mike: 25.25 very key now, needs defended or
(Apr 05-15:39) mike: a pretty good bid dn at 28.00- 27.50 area. should hold now
(Apr 05-15:40) mike: a waffling back and forth around 12400 on dow cash looks likely.
(Apr 05-15:43) mike: a bounce just sets up a good short now. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday- April 04, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 04-09:17) mike: IT WASN'T IN THE S/R TABLE BUT 31.50 ON ES WAS THE BREAK DN LEVEL, 29-28 EARLY KEY SUPP NEEDS HELD
(Apr 04-09:41) mike: 32.50-33.25 resist sold, 2349 nq key, 31.50-31.00 key on dip now
(Apr 04-09:50) mike: big wedge,, nq weak, high reversal at resist, 29 area test if 32 not exceeded

(Apr 04-10:05) mike: 27.50 supp , A bounce will fail, wege broke , nq leading
(Apr 04-10:12) mike: 29.75-30.50 resist on bounce from 27.50 supp,
(Apr 04-10:26) mike: 30.50 met, stalled, 29.50-29.00 needs broken to follow thru lower
(Apr 04-10:28) mike: dow cash 12400 , 30.50 on ES, 2337 on NQ all need cleared/ held on a dip, to avoid more downside
(Apr 04-10:43) mike: 30.50 hard to get thru,, 12400 dow cash tagged and pulled off , still vulnerable
(Apr 04-10:53) mike: still good resist just above, on dip 28.25 was bid a couple times now., another test must hold, or 25.50-24.50 area is major intraday now tht wedge broke.
(Apr 04-10:59) mike: price pattern is bearish still, 30.50 on ES, 2337 NQ, 12400 on Dow cash all have been sold on bounces, 25 area next supp

(Apr 04-11:07) mike: pressure on holding 29
(Apr 04-11:26) mike: dbl bottom attempt , a dip needs to hold turn up from 27.75 , or going lowr, 29.00 small resist. still 30.50 and 12400 on dow cash need cleared/ held to get the upside in gear
(Apr 04-11:35) mike: a dip to 28.50 es 2234 nq need hold to have a chance to break up thru 30.50 area, otherwise another wedge break again
(Apr 04-11:57) mike: in a small range, ES held at 28.50 so far, NQ held just over 2334, those area key to hold, on top, 12400 on Dow cash touched 4 times after its early drop, that need cleared/ held on a dip or mkt remains vulnerable

(Apr 04-12:23) mike: 31.25 some resist if they get over 29.75 and not quickly turn down. / if 28.50 supp breaks / holds then the 25 area could be seen. . i need to be away for 50 min or so, will do audio update then

(Apr 04-13:15) mike: a dbl bottom at 27.00, but upside has no momentum, sellers above as bids dry up. still need to get over 12400 on Dow cash, or another push lower likely.
(Apr 04-13:22) mike: another wedge pattern, nq leading . 2332 resist there
(Apr 04-13:23) mike: audio for a bit,
(Apr 04-13:50) mike: if short look for cover 25.50-24.50 a good supp, key as it was a breakout area too
(Apr 04-13:53) mike: air pocket to 1320.50 if 24.25 not held. 26.50 resist now

(Apr 04-14:06) mike: little dbl bottom at supp, 26.00-26.50 resist, then 27.50 is cleared
(Apr 04-14:23) mike: 27.00-27.50 good resist now, needs cleared/ held on a dip to get upside going,

(Apr 04-14:31) mike: a test of 25.00-24.25 supp needs held. was breakout area last week. it was well bid on the move dn there, if they get there again, look for a rebound to occur. if they dont reverse fast on a test, then mkt is breaking down

(Apr 04-14:53) mike: should roll over from here if weak , 26.50 needs broken. a test of lows should hold tho, or bigger trends changing. / a move over 27.50 should create some short covering if they break out higher

(Apr 04-15:13) mike: 25.50 bounce, nq weak so that 25-24 area might not be so well bid on a third test . , 27.50 still resist to get thru n hold
(Apr 04-15:21) mike: need to push thru 27.00-27.50. still a timid mkt up here

(Apr 04-15:27) mike: 2322 dbl bottom on NQ , 25.50-24.50 area on ES need held, should hold, to stay in a range and not break down. this has been toppy acting, but mkt doesn't get damaged unless/ until those lows break , especially on a close.

(Apr 04-15:29) mike: a dip to 27.25-26.75 area should hold now.
(Apr 04-15:37) mike: 26.75 reversed, need to stay over that to push higher, otherwise a poor close.
(Apr 04-15:41) mike: 28.75 good resist,
(Apr 04-15:44) mike: 12400 on dow cash turned back again, key i think up here.
(Apr 04-15:54) mike: stuck here just under 28.75 early afternoon high
(Apr 04-15:55) mike: VIXY should pop tomorrow if this action continues. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday- April 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 01-09:17) mike: i have repair men in office this morn will be in and out this morn. 28 area supp. 25 area is key, should not be seen, 32 area resist

(Apr 01-10:02) mike: 25.50 held. thats key now. 29 area resist here
(Apr 01-10:09) mike: 28.50-28.00 pivotal supp, needs held to avoid reversal
(Apr 01-10:13) mike: they blew thru 25.50 on open, pulled back to test/ hold then up and away to upside. 31.50-32.50 key resist now, a dip needs a hold at 30-29 area
(Apr 01-10:21) mike: 30 held, its trend up supp now ,
(Apr 01-10:25) mike: a back off from 32.50 resist, 31.00-30.50 area trend supp need held to get thru it
(Apr 01-10:27) mike: the 1 min chart per ebook trend guide in these momentum moves , 31 now supp to stay over
(Apr 01-10:35) mike: trend up move, only a break/ hold under 31 on ES, 12400 Dow cash turns the trend
(Apr 01-10:40) mike: if 31.00-30.50 are broken, the move is topping out
(Apr 01-10:43) mike: a test of the high now that stalls, reverses a sell , 32 area shouldnt be exceeded / held
(Apr 01-10:47) mike: bids drying up , a break can go to 28 ,

(Apr 01-11:01) mike: 123 top possible , 32.00-32.50 area should be sold if a high up here. 30 needs held or 28 can be tested
(Apr 01-11:04) mike: 30.50 needs broken to turn dn from here
(Apr 01-11:18) mike: its still ok as long as 30.50 holds. if a push thru 32.50 can stick, the 35.50-36.50 next
(Apr 01-11:24) mike: 32.00-31.75 supp now needs held to get to 35 area
(Apr 01-11:31) mike: 32 held. nq leading, eye on it , 2352 need held there
(Apr 01-11:37) mike: 32.75 should hold to see 34.50-35.50 area ,
(Apr 01-11:44) mike: 32.50 needs held, 2355 on nq. mkt getting a bit timid up here. good offer above

(Apr 01-11:52) mike: they dont like it up there, like at 1325.50 yesterday, at least on first time up there. the 32 area held , so no damage done, but a move up there should be hard to hold over.

(Apr 01-12:17) mike: they didn't like it up there again, but should reverse up from 32.50-32.00 if going to hold together up here and try again
(Apr 01-12:29) mike: there is less momentum on each push higher, need to stay over 32 and push thru 33.50 and keep going. 32 breaks they begin to roll over.
(Apr 01-12:44) mike: be short to 30.50-30.00 area, under the high, nq leader

(Apr 01-12:51) mike: 12400 on Dow cash also pivotal. and 30.50 area. 32.50 area resist
(Apr 01-13:01) mike: if 32.00-32.50 not cleared, and 31 breaks, 1328.50 test , would be key to hold
(Apr 01-13:13) mike: 30.50-30.00 tgt reached , 32.00-32.50 the key resist above , but shouldnt get there if its topped
(Apr 01-13:16) mike: the 29.00-28.50 will need reversed fast, or to 25.50 lows
(Apr 01-13:26) mike: there is pretty key supp there , the early high and pullback low. if not held, then 28 area in the cards or lower . 32 area still resist to clear to avoid break dn
(Apr 01-13:29) mike: i need to be away for 5-10 minutes. this is like yesterday, 33.00-33.50 a lid on top
(Apr 01-13:46) mike: failed under 32. it needs cleared, not sold, or mkt in a bit of trouble up here
(Apr 01-13:49) mike: will stay over 30.50 or its breaking dn . the 60ema on 5 min chart is at 33 here also.

(Apr 01-14:05) mike: tempting long around 31.25-31.00 but if broken the downside gets some momentum. and upside arrears limited to 33.50 area
(Apr 01-14:12) mike: 31.25 should hold
(Apr 01-14:19) mike: 31.25 held but this needs a deeper drop
(Apr 01-14:27) mike: 31.25 area is bottom side of a wedge pattern. a gentile pullback to the 30.50 support should be a buy

(Apr 01-14:36) mike: 30.50 held,but slow, thin and choppy , 32 still the resist to clear. good / key support at 30.50 area. not getting trapped long up here.bids being pulled for a lower area to buy em back up

(Apr 01-14:45) mike: 28.50 a supp, but any bounce a sell now , 31 area would be a gift
(Apr 01-14:47) mike: 30.50 a gift now. 25.50 , if broken, 22 area
(Apr 01-14:58) mike: 28.50-29.00 trend resist, to go towards low, 30.50-31.000 strong r

(Apr 01-15:01) mike: despite drop off highs, if they close around here, still get sell sigs. need a run to clear 30.50 on close, to avoid a good sized drop
(Apr 01-15:06) mike: a test of 27 now needs reversed quickly. or then 25.50 could be seen.
(Apr 01-15:10) mike: no go, the 28.50 area needs cleared, held on dip or they drift lower into late
(Apr 01-15:14) mike: press to 21
(Apr 01-15:17) mike: 26.50 trend resist/ 1 min chart setup guide . 20.50-19.50 area supp
(Apr 01-15:29) mike: 25.50 should hold or this goes dn into close
(Apr 01-15:40) mike: 25.50 held, still , not good action ,a bounce will be reversed ,
(Apr 01-15:43) mike: some short covering moving it up. 28.50-29.00 resist late. 25.50 must hold or drp into settlement
(Apr 01-15:43) mike: have a good weekend
(Apr 01-15:51) mike: 29 sold, 26.50 needs held or edge breaks end of day. take care

 

 

Thursday- March 31, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Mar 31, 2011 9:23 mike: 24.50-25.00 was sold earlier this morn, its initial resist early.
Mar 31, 2011 9:37 mike: 22.25 needs held
Mar 31, 2011 9:45 mike: 23.75-23.25 key supp
Mar 31, 2011 9:52 mike: bounce should fail 25 good resist
Mar 31, 2011 9:59 mike: 19.50 should be tested, 1775 if that goes , 23.50- 24 needs cleared held to avoid that

Mar 31, 2011 10:04 mike: 23.50--24.00 sold, key now , 19.50 target , cover part 22 or better
Mar 31, 2011 10:12 mike: a 2 point bounce should fail. to see 19.50, and/ 17.75 then possible next
Mar 31, 2011 10:17 mike: 22 area now supp, a pullback should hold there to stay in range and try going higher
Mar 31, 2011 10:29 mike: stall at 24.50-25.00 area. needs cleared or 22.75 can be tested, must hold there
Mar 31, 2011 10:37 mike: 24.50 holding, that and then 23.75 should hold to keep this from reversing.
Mar 31, 2011 10:42 mike: 24.50 trend up supp here. need to stay over that level, or test 23.75-23.25 pivotal area
Mar 31, 2011 10:46 mike: 24.50 bought. it key to hold now or reversal up here
Mar 31, 2011 10:53 mike: toppy action, 23.50 needs defended, a pop to test 25.50 stalls / reverses is a short

Mar 31, 2011 11:02 mike: 23.50 held, pop to 25.25 set up short, stop break even at worst. 23.50 needs broken
Mar 31, 2011 11:06 mike: its 2 sided, choppy, and end of quarter. no trend, so pretty much need to scalp , or stay with this with stop in place.
Mar 31, 2011 11:13 mike: 23.50 now resist, 24.50 at most if going lower
Mar 31, 2011 11:23 mike: 24 now key, , nq coming off should add pressure
Mar 31, 2011 11:29 mike: dow test its low, , this bounce should fail to get over 23.75 at most now to keep dn trend
Mar 31, 2011 11:34 mike: 3 good resist. 19.50 then 17.75 key areas
Mar 31, 2011 11:39 mike: nq leading this down, its 2327 needs held or an air pocket dn to 2322 or so there. 2330-32 resist there
Mar 31, 2011 11:53 mike: 2332 tagged on nq, 23 on es, both look pivotal. a dip needs to hold 22 on es , 2330 on nq, or they make 1 more push lower

(Mar 31-12:07) mike: 23 still pivotal
(Mar 31-12:11) mike: 2332 on nq too
(Mar 31-12:19) mike: i'll be away a bit. a move over 23 that holds can spark a rally to test 25026, . dow cash is in a triangle, a break there should get a move in gear
(Mar 31-12:40) mike: 23 now supp,
(Mar 31-12:49) mike: buyers back off around 25., a pop up there should reverse and come back to 23.50-23.00 pivotal area
(Mar 31-12:57) mike: a 2 sided day, a dip should hold 24.50-24.00 to go higher, if not held then 23. back in the cards

(Mar 31-13:00) mike: 24.50 bought, must hold that or trend reverse again
(Mar 31-13:06) mike: if 24.50 not held they start another move down , 23.50-23.00 then key supp
(Mar 31-13:25) mike: mkt near unchanged with all the chop, its quiet in here. need to stay over 24.50-24.25 area here to push higher
(Mar 31-13:41) mike: 25 should hold now.
(Mar 31-13:43) mike: watch 2329 on NQ, a dbl top there to push thru. , 2337 is its trend supp
(Mar 31-13:45) mike: thats 2339 on nq,
(Mar 31-13:50) mike: buyers back of up there again. no break yet, but a pop up, that fails, near 25.50 again a short

(Mar 31-14:01) mike: dow rolled over, a bounce will be sold. , dbl top to sell against
(Mar 31-14:04) mike: 23.75-23.25 is supp , around 12350 on dow cash. that should / must be held or a test of 22 or the lows.
(Mar 31-14:14) mike: the dips have been slow, the snap back bounces fast. this is a scalp mkt still, a test of 23.75-23.25 should hold and spring right back on another dip.
(Mar 31-14:24) mike: avoid this , or look for a test of high to sell, or test of 23. area to possibly be a buyer
(Mar 31-14:29) mike: 23.50 reached, but sell bounce under high
(Mar 31-14:31) mike: if the high gets 1 more test, it should be a gift short. swing trade , 24.50 resist

(Mar 31-14:45) mike: that 23 area held, but the upside limited, the high yest was at a major resist, that area well offered , a break lower would do much more damage than just a 2.50 pt pullback here

(Mar 31-15:00) mike: need a break of this 2.50 point range , a hold over 25 should bring short covering pop up , if not cleared soon longs get antsy to bail

(Mar 31-15:10) mike: last hour of a choppy end of quarter day. not going to get cut up in this, just watch for 23 area for supp, its key now. 25.00-25.75 on top, 2338-2340 on nq should be hard to get thru and stick.

Mar 31, 2011 15:27 mike: unable to stay over 25. jobs data in morning, vix is down on the day, the VIXY will jump on the open if things end like this
Mar 31, 2011 15:41 mike: a drop to buy em up end of day. that 22.50 should hold . if not then 19.50 will be bought. a hold over 24.60 gives short squeeze
Mar 31, 2011 15:43 mike: have a good rest of the day.
Mar 31, 2011 15:46 mike: 19.50 still possible. sell any pop it will be sold at/ under 25.
Mar 31, 2011 15:48 mike: VIXY moving already. if you have long exposure, thats your hedge .

 

 

Wednesday- March 30, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 30-10:05) mike: dbl top, 22 must hold
(Mar 30-10:07) mike: 21.50 supp,
(Mar 30-10:14) mike: its a sell 19.50 is key , if that breaks today then a high will be in place, and 17 area would be tested.
(Mar 30-10:15) mike: 21.50 needs broken, held on bounce, or a move to 25 possible yet
(Mar 30-10:20) mike: need to get over 23 n hold
(Mar 30-10:21) mike: wait for range break hold, 21.50 on bottom, 23 on top
(Mar 30-10:41) mike: need to stay over 22.50 now. 2329 on nq

(Mar 30-11:52) mike: 24.25-25.00 a resist zone. 23 area needs held or it starts getting toppy
(Mar 30-11:53) mike: 23 is trend up supp

(Mar 30-11:55) mike: 2330 on nq needs held to

(Mar 30-12:04) mike: 2330 on nq looks like key supp, 22.75-22.50 on ES . they'd need to break and not quickly reverse up to dent the upside. mkt a buy over thos
(Mar 30-12:05) mike: a push thru 24.25-25.00 area needed to get going on upside
(Mar 30-12:09) mike: rejected 24.25, its a key area to get thru. a test that stalls/ reverses is a short , 22.75 area is reversal
(Mar 30-12:15) mike: no stall, no short unless 23 area breaks,
(Mar 30-12:15) mike: buy 24 area , 28 is next on upside
(Mar 30-12:19) mike: 24.25 area supp now should hold if going higher
(Mar 30-12:22) mike: 25.00-24.25 holds, 28 in site.
(Mar 30-12:26) mike: a dip of 1.50-2.00 pts should be max, or it gets toppy
(Mar 30-12:46) mike: have to spring higher from 25.00-24.25 now , or change course
(Mar 30-12:58) mike: bounced off 25. looks key now with twin tops

(Mar 30-13:11) mike: 28.50-29.25 resist, should be hard to get over and hold up there. ,26.50-26.00 area needs held now
(Mar 30-13:20) mike: mkt acting a bit tired, 26.50 area needs held
(Mar 30-13:28) mike: rejection up there, buyers back off. a bounce should fail now

(Mar 30-13:41) mike: this move should have trouble getting thru 28 area and staying up there, however still for 2 days the dips are about 1.75-2.25 pts, max. a deeper drop than that changes things. its end of month/ quarter. holing it so far

(Mar 30-13:50) mike: topped
(Mar 30-13:52) mike: sell any decent bounce, 28 area shouldnt be exceeded / held

(Mar 30-14:05) mike: the 1324 level on ES, 12360 area on Dow cash, is a transition area from ths morning, and that looks key . the 26.50 needs cleared, held to have a chance to pop to highs or around there

(Mar 30-14:26) mike: for now the mkt will stay away from trouble as long as a pullback holds that 25.50-25.00 area
(Mar 30-14:44) mike: key here, if going to 28 or higher, must hold 26 get thru 2675 soon , else roll over up here to 25 at least
(Mar 30-14:46) mike: 23.50 under 25
(Mar 30-14:47) mike: 123 top, short under 26.75 , it shouldnt be cleared now

(Mar 30-14:58) mike: 25 held, but there is upside limited, 26.75 rejected 2times, and nq has had trouble to 2338 area all afternoon, that and 1326.75 would need to be gunned thru to keep upside going.

(Mar 30-15:14) mike: watch 23.75 area for key supp , around 12360 on dow cash. they should spring up of that to avoid break of bigger trend
(Mar 30-15:20) mike: 25.25 should hold to stay up here
(Mar 30-15:29) mike: toppy, still should be a short on bounce tht fails under 26.75 , end of quarter
(Mar 30-15:37) mike: a lot of chop, not a trade unless a scalp , 60ema on 5 min at 1324, that area key to stay over.

(Mar 30-15:42) mike: has to get thru 26.25 , not fail again, to push up higher into close. / it doesn't like it up there very long , but a bounce off 24 could get it done. have a good rest of the day.

(Mar 30-15:48) mike: small short overnight, a sell around 26 if reached
(Mar 30-15:51) mike: 24.50-25.00 good resist now. 20-19 supp. have a good day.
 

Tuesday- March 29, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 29-09:12) mike: nq hurry to buy, good rest above. esp 2303 area on nq
(Mar 29-09:22) mike: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 10AM
(Mar 29-09:35) mike: initial resist nailed and sold, 02 sup, follow nq
(Mar 29-09:48) mike: 1300.50-1300.00 held so far, need to clear 02.50 area
(Mar 29-09:55) mike: resist to supp, consumer confidence 4 min


Mar 29, 2011 9:09 mike: nq has been leading higher since 15 minutes in, it should hold 2303-2302 area at worst, to stay out of trouble. , es should hold 1303 area at worst

 Mar 29, 2011 9:18 mike: 06.00-05.50 supp , must hold . 08.00 is the 7.50 pt max upside if a high at 1515 yesterday
Mar 29, 2011 9:23 mike: toppy, 05.50 looks key to hold on this dip
Mar 29, 2011 9:35 mike: 06.25-05.50 area is trend supp. needs to hold or trend breaks
Mar 29, 2011 9:42 mike: 05.50 reached, but the 60ema on 5 min chart at 07.75 held this back, needs cleared on this bounce, or back to 04 area
Mar 29, 2011 9:52 mike: 07 area should hold now or its a tell that buyers backing off for lower prices .

Mar 29, 2011 10:03 mike: reversed 07 area. that 06.50 good/ key supp now. 09.50-10.25 good resist if 06.50 not broken
Mar 29, 2011 10:06 mike: trends and momentum are up, so careful trying to fade this. dips of 2 pts are bought. , nothing reverses until more than a 2 point dip.
Mar 29, 2011 10:08 mike: 07.75 now trend up supp
Mar 29, 2011 10:12 mike: 09.50 should be hard to get thru and hold, but no reversal unless 07.75 area broken
Mar 29, 2011 10:17 mike: careful long up here, stall at resist, 08.50 needs held
Mar 29, 2011 10:25 mike: 08.50 held, the burst thru 09.50 triggered more buying. 09.50 now supp, should hold to stay trend up. a break out of sorts.
Mar 29, 2011 10:32 mike: 09.50 held. 12.00-12.50 area next if no more than a 2 pt dip on a pullback
Mar 29, 2011 10:37 mike: 09.50 is key, 2 pts of the high and old resist turned mini breakout there .
Mar 29, 2011 10:40 mike: bids drying up abit, a test of 11 area should be sold ,
Mar 29, 2011 10:46 mike: just a tiny dip off 11 , its still 09.50 supp that needs held to keep this move from reversing

Mar 29, 2011 11:06 mike: its still trend up over 1310.00-1309.50 , key now. 12.00-12.50 next above
Mar 29, 2011 11:11 mike: tight range for an hour. a break of 10 starts a move lower. over 11.50 then 1 more go on upside, 1315 area still major
Mar 29, 2011 11:13 mike: need to go for a bit. audio then in about 45 min
Mar 29, 2011 11:27 mike: 1 hour in range, nq dropping,
Mar 29, 2011 11:28 mike: bounce a sell
Mar 29, 2011 11:31 mike: top for now, 08.00-07.50 if 09.50 key level breaks

(Mar 29-12:41) mike: if the key 09.50 is broken, then 08.25 is supp 1 , then 1305.50-1305.00 is a ''must hold'' or go to 1302, or lower
(Mar 29-12:49) mike: 09.50 holding so no break dn yet, nq in a weaker position, it lead the rally, keep an eye on it at 2317 area

(Mar 29-13:10) mike: need nq to get over 2317-18 and hold there, ES needs a push thru 1312 too. need to stay over 09.50
(Mar 29-13:24) mike: ES looks like it wants to push higher, nq is a drag on the move right now , it looks like it topped. i'm following NQs , under 2317-18 vulnerable
(Mar 29-13:29) mike: if 09.50 not defended, 08.25 next supp.
(Mar 29-13:29) mike: if 09.50 not defended, 08.25 next supp.
(Mar 29-13:41) mike: need a push over 11 that can hold , soon, or risk a break of 09.50 area and head towards 08 area
(Mar 29-13:51) mike: no damage done still as long as 09.50 holds.. a bit like yesterday. but showing a better bid on dips thus far

(Mar 29-14:03) mike: the lightning strike last week took out some stuff in the house, and repair people coming/ going and making calls. hard to keep focus. up here tho, need to stay over 10.75 now, hold the gains. should see 09.50 for awhile

(Mar 29-14:05) mike: should =not= see 09.50 fo awhile. 11.25 supp now,

(Mar 29-14:12) mike: 12.50-12.25 was resist, now trend up supp to hold to keep this going , 11.25 worst case must hold
(Mar 29-14:16) mike: 12.25 held so far, just scalp long , 1313 area likely sold / 12.2 key now
(Mar 29-14:21) mike: buyers back off up there 3 time so far, so 12.25 needs held to keep this going, 15.00-15.50 very key above
(Mar 29-14:37) mike: 11.75 was the mid day high before the last breakout. as long as its held, the move higher continues , just beware a higher high that stalls can give a quick dip
(Mar 29-14:46) mike: mkt wtill well bid on the 2 point dips. it can last to the close the way it acts, and 11.75 holds

(Mar 29-14:54) mike: i guess one person needs it spelled out in all CAPS that this is, and has been a BUY DIPS. it remains a BUY on a dip as long as 1311.75 is held...... if i haven't been clear, my apologies.

(Mar 29-15:15) mike: a 1.75 point dip. if 11.75 not held, then things could change but its a buy the dip mkt as long as that is defended.
(Mar 29-15:29) mike: 12.50 now key , must hold or first time any damage done today.
(Mar 29-15:30) mike: if long time for cover imo
(Mar 29-15:31) mike: doesn't mean go short
(Mar 29-15:31) mike: reward/ risk on new logs not good up here
(Mar 29-15:32) mike: 12.75 area supp on pullback.
(Mar 29-15:42) mike: 13 needs reversed,
(Mar 29-15:45) mike: another 1.75 pt dip. 13 now key to keep stair step higher
(Mar 29-15:46) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Monday- March 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 28-09:24) mike: 12.50-13.00 resist rejected several times. it needs cleared/ held on a dip to get a good rally. there will be buyers below, a decent drop that hold/reverses around 08 should hold if not breaking down.

(Mar 28-09:26) mike: i will be in nd out of the office this morn. not to normal for a few hours
(Mar 28-09:39) mike: 10.50 key
(Mar 28-09:44) mike: 12.50-13.00 key to break/ hold. nq needs a turn up
(Mar 28-09:48) mike: 12.50 should hold now, or reversal likely
(Mar 28-09:54) mike: 12.25 held, thats key, or then 10.50. 14.50-15.50 area good resist
(Mar 28-09:59) mike: 14.50 sold, 13 needs held on a dip or it breaks trend supp

(Mar 28-10:05) mike: dbl top at 14.50, short under that , a break of 11.75 area that not reversed puts pressure on
(Mar 28-10:13) mike: 13.50 sold but now as long as 12.25 holds the bulls are in charge,
(Mar 28-10:23) mike: 15.50 is major short term. a dip to 13.50-13.00 area needs hold now, if 15.50 pushed thru, 19.50-20.50 area is possible
(Mar 28-10:28) mike: 15 major was offers up there, but 13.50 held so no damage done yet. if 13.50 broken , things change
(Mar 28-10:49) mike: another failure to get thru 15.50, sell up there for scalp at least. , 13.50 if broken changes this to dn
(Mar 28-10:58) mike: 13.50 strong resist now

(Mar 28-11:06) mike: if mkt is strong 10.50 would hold, give good move up and make new high, doubt this happens again, 13 area good resist. 10.50 break means 08 area
(Mar 28-11:20) mike: 12.75-13.50 area should be good resist now
(Mar 28-11:28) mike: unless the nq turns up and starts holding over 2318 this is still vulnerable
(Mar 28-11:32) mike: it needs to push over 12.50 on ES also,
(Mar 28-11:40) mike: 08.50-07.50 supp below. 11.25-11.75 shouldn't be cleared/ held
(Mar 28-11:47) mike: 10.50-11.00 resist on a bounce now , watch 08.50-07.50 for a bounce attempt,
(Mar 28-11:57) mike: 10.50-11.00 met, it was a well contained pullback so far, from here a test of low or lower to 08.50-07.50 should be bought.

(Mar 28-12:08) mike: 111.50 , barely over my listed resist, but there is a good cluster of resist there now, it looks pivotal , a sell on test
(Mar 28-12:08) mike: if not short already.
(Mar 28-12:13) mike: its a ''sell bounces'' under 11.50, to 08.50-07.50 area . vix reversed and on 4 sell sigs . high at major resist 15.00-15.50 , bounces not sticking.
(Mar 28-12:21) mike: kind of a wedge pattern. holding over 1310 could get a short cover pop, but it shouldn't stick if so.
(Mar 28-12:40) mike: should roll over soon if its going to, otherwise a move to/ thru 12.50 could be brewing

(Mar 28-13:04) mike: tight range, 11.50 bounce high needs cleared/ held to break out higher, 10.50 should hold on a dip to stay out of trouble.
(Mar 28-13:13) mike: 11.50 like a pivot , a test should be bought now, a move over 12.50-13.00 to get this going
(Mar 28-13:18) mike: if the ES gets back to 13.50 area and stall out, that sets up a sell. the bids dry up on the run up that stall out
(Mar 28-13:30) mike: 11.50 must hold, 13.50 still possible unless broken - beware of selling / reversal if 03.50 reached .
(Mar 28-13:41) mike: 3 tick move off 11.50 looks big due to narrow range. 11.50 held but upside seems limited and a bit risky
(Mar 28-13:49) mike: a better short under 12.50
(Mar 28-13:51) mike: wedge break, 11.50-1175 resist on a bounce
(Mar 28-13:59) mike: very very slow, i wouldn't trust a rally to stick, a close in the minus side possible, 11.50 would need cleared/ held to take some pressure off

(Mar 28-14:08) mike: a bounce to 11.50 area that stalls a gift short the way this acts , 08.50-07.50 still big below
(Mar 28-14:17) mike: follow nq lead. should close negative, at least test unch on dow cash and spx
(Mar 28-14:22) mike: dow cash dbl bottom, the 2:20-2:40 timeframe reversal. watch 11.50 area for good resist
(Mar 28-14:28) mike: 11 rejected on a tick extreme. not good
(Mar 28-14:34) mike: this should fail, however so far there hasn't been a 5 minute close under 1310. to really get in trouble, a hold under 10 would have to happen to put pressure on
(Mar 28-14:46) mike: a better bounce that anticipated, a big 2 point move by the ES. need a push thru 1312.50 and stick to get a real move going, or this ends poorly . 11.00 small supp
(Mar 28-14:57) mike: that's why i dont trust longs today. if they bounce back they'll be sold in to , hard possibly

(Mar 28-15:19) mike: still no 5 minute close under 1310. the 1312.00-1312.50 key on top. no follow thru either way, power dry the rest of the day , 08.50-07.50 area should be key if 1310 goes... 15.00-15.50 major resist on top, the high of day .

(Mar 28-15:21) mike: mkt is in trouble if 11.00 cant be cleared,
(Mar 28-15:37) mike: 0850-0750 if a hold under 10
(Mar 28-15:42) mike: nq weaker , 2309.50 resist there
(Mar 28-15:43) mike: 08.50-07.50 , 02 or lower if close under 08.50
(Mar 28-15:47) mike: 08.50 now good resist. 05.25 key end of day, then 1302 if that goes
(Mar 28-15:51) mike: both 1305 area and 12200 on Dow cash key down here, but bounce won't get too far even if held
(Mar 28-15:53) mike: 08.50 resist end of day, shouldnt be cleared and held on close. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday- March 25, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 25-09:09) mike: use nightly update for early trading, an update after the mich sentiment number about 10am

(Mar 25-10:00) mike: 11307.50-1308.25 resist sold twice. need cleared if going to avoid going to 03 area
(Mar 25-10:06) mike: 06.50 is supp thats key to break/ hold now ,
(Mar 25-10:09) mike: 06.0 held. mkt is ok as long as that holds
(Mar 25-10:12) mike: sell at 0825, needs cleared / held or not good
(Mar 25-10:17) mike: 06.50 held do far , but a short under high

(Mar 25-10:25) mike: 06 is 20ema on 5 min chart, has been held since yesterday afternoon , it is trend supp, mkt might turn from above, but no damage done unless 06 broken, not reversed. buy a dip to 07 are if a dip stalls there

(Mar 25-10:51) mike: more melt up, 11.50 small resist, 1315 if cleared. a dip should hold 10.50-10.00 to keep going , or 08.50 can be tested
(Mar 25-10:59) mike: still a buy as long as 11.50 holds , up to 15 area, or a bit more

(Mar 25-11:04) mike: 12 area needs held to keep long side alive now
(Mar 25-11:14) mike: a high in for a bit if 12 breaks
(Mar 25-11:28) mike: holding 12. but if broken a quick drop
(Mar 25-11:36) mike: 1315.00-131550 area can be seen if not a failure to hold 12.50 now
(Mar 25-11:54) mike: bids dry up on new high, 12 area. needs defended , or if broken, then bounce that follows would sold

(Mar 25-12:17) mike: 13.50 needs held now to keep grind higher ,
(Mar 25-12:25) mike: 13.50 held so far, buyers back off at new high each time 1.00 -1.75 dip, then come in on a dip to re position
(Mar 25-12:31) mike: vix on the floor, sell next pop up, 14.50 a lid,
(Mar 25-12:34) mike: 13.50 resist, 2327 nq
(Mar 25-12:38) mike: a break of 1312 breaks supp and symmetry, vix will give 3-4 sell sigs w/ a move over 17.7
(Mar 25-12:51) mike: a little dbl bottom at key 1312 supp, no damage done unless/ until broken. , but would expect selling near 13.50 if high in
(Mar 25-12:57) mike: a transition to dn side , 2327 on nq 1313.50 es need cleared/ held to avoid trouble up here

(Mar 25-13:03) mike: 09.50-08.50 next sup, 1312.50-1313.00 reist

(Mar 25-13:30) mike: the bounce rejected 1312.50 resist , to 10.75 so far. that 12.50-13.00 should be hard to get thru n hold. , a drop to 09.50-08.50 would be a better buy, but a test of 11 that holds/ stalls is scalp long

(Mar 25-13:37) mike: 11 held but looks ready to break dn. 12.50 needs cleared held on this move up, stop break even at worst
(Mar 25-13:39) mike: 12.50 scalp out if long
(Mar 25-13:46) mike: 12.50 cleared. 11.50 needs defended to stay in decent shape now.
(Mar 25-13:56) mike: toppy, avid longs, if they bounce
(Mar 25-13:57) mike: back to 12 area its a sell, nq the weaker
(Mar 25-13:58) mike: vix turning too, crowed exit door on turn

(Mar 25-14:19) mike: since low on wednesday, normal dips have been 4.25-4.75 pts, if it goes more, then a 7.25-7.75 deepest pullback/drop. 1310.50 is 4.25 pts, and 60ema on 5 min chart there too. that must hold, or a move to 07.50-06.50 area would be next. and better area for possible reversal up

(Mar 25-14:24) mike: 2319-2320 resist on nq, 12 area es . a pop up there that fizzles is a short
(Mar 25-14:28) mike: if 11.75 area not cleared/, 07.50 or lower in the cards, this isn't just a pullback, a bounce will be sold in to
(Mar 25-14:36) mike: if the vix closes over 18, i'll get at least 3 of possible 5 sell signals. mkt should back off more to get a run up into end of quarter next thursday
(Mar 25-14:48) mike: 10.50 supp here, needs held to hold up and not roll over
(Mar 25-14:53) mike: 10.75 held, its key to hold
(Mar 25-14:58) mike: wedge pattern, 11.00-10.75 need hel or it breaks

(Mar 25-15:17) mike: a pullback to test 11.50-11.00 should hold to close strong, that should be key to hold if they are going to get thru that 1313 area this afternoon / if not held, 10 is then key below

(Mar 25-15:23) mike: a 4 point range so far this afternoon. will get sell sigs,
(Mar 25-15:52) mike: VIXY will jup w/ Vix reverses on monday/ tuesday. it dropped 40% in 7 days
(Mar 25-15:55) mike: 17.88 or higher on vix will give 3 sell sigs there
(Mar 25-15:56) mike: this will play out nicely going to end of quarter/ month . have a great weekend

 

 

Thursday- March 24, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 24-09:10) mike: another gap day. 1303 area should be good resist , and sold , 96-95 is first supp. a hold over 1296-95 needed to stay strong
(Mar 24-09:44) mike: 96 held, key to stay over
(Mar 24-09:49) mike: 97.50 needs cleared

(Mar 24-10:00) mike: 96 pivotal resist now ,
(Mar 24-10:10) mike: 97 needs cleared/ held. buyers pull bids up there
(Mar 24-10:11) mike: 92.50- supp, 121000 dow cash ,
(Mar 24-10:12) mike: 89 area key on break. 9550 resst
(Mar 24-10:20) mike: 92.50 held, 12100 dow cash / those are key this morn to stay in bullish mode
(Mar 24-10:21) mike: 95.50 small resist
(Mar 24-10:31) mike: key , 95.75 needs held now or reversal, and 97 need cleared / held to get going up
(Mar 24-10:45) mike: stalling , but tregoes if 97 not held
(Mar 24-10:46) mike: trend breaks if 97 goes.
(Mar 24-10:53) mike: 98.00-97.50 should hold now
(Mar 24-10:55) mike: if going to push thru 1300 towards 02-03 area , nq leader this morning / 1292.50 is very good supp
(Mar 24-10:58) mike: 98.50 supp now, watch 02.50-0350 for possible reversal / dip

(Mar 24-11:08) mike: reaction off 02.50 resist. 1300.50 should hold, if going higher
(Mar 24-11:14) mike: 1300.50 held, its trend up supp/ 1300.50-1300.00 key area now or high in at resist for a move towards 98
Mar 24, 2011 11:26:27 AM EST mike: 02.50-03.50 is the resist. careful buying, still trend up over 1300.50 but could break dn any time, move is parabolic
Mar 24, 2011 11:41:35 AM EST mike: this should be key , 3rd test, nq needs to push thru 2302 also
Mar 24, 2011 11:49:29 AM EST mike: small short under 03 ,
Mar 24, 2011 11:52:33 AM EST mike: 00.75 needs broken soon , or scratch
Mar 24, 2011 11:54:44 AM EST mike: scalp out
Mar 24, 2011 11:55:30 AM EST mike: need a break of 00,50 , 2298 on nq, to turn this a bit
Mar 24, 2011 11:56:36 AM EST mike: 1 hour in this range...

Mar 24, 2011 12:07:12 AM EST mike: this can last into the last 40 minutes or so today as long as 01 area holds. 02.50 good supp now.
Mar 24, 2011 12:15:18 AM EST mike: if 03.00-02.50 not defended, a high can be in, or give deeper dip, nq loos straight up, that 2304-2306 area resist there, 2301-2300 supp
Mar 24, 2011 12:23:12 AM EST mike: need a pop here over 03
Mar 24, 2011 12:25:18 AM EST mike: still trend up, but a test of the high should be sold, its acting a bit tired / timid up there
Mar 24, 2011 12:28:04 AM EST mike: should come dn to 04 or so, then push higher if not changing the momentum
Mar 24, 2011 12:30:53 AM EST mike: 04.00 holds so far. 03.00 is the key area, 00.50 if that not defended, nq looks vulnerable up there
Mar 24, 2011 12:33:08 AM EST mike: it sure felt like it was toppy, made 1 last push then failed. a test of high now a sell, i
(Mar 24-12:51) mike: those highs should be hard to get thru and stick. right now , as long as the 1302 not broken , there is a chance for 1 more pop up, that should be reversed. 04.50-05.00 a fib area and old gap area
(Mar 24-12:54) mike: 00.50 trying to hold, 03 area good resist now. bounce will fail
(Mar 24-12:57) mike: swing trade short if 03 area , or higher, reached and move stalls . 98.50 supp, then 85.50 is pivotal

(Mar 24-13:07) mike: 2302 on nq is a good resist too, 02.50 on es
(Mar 24-13:30) mike: hold of on a swing trade short, being end of quarter and tomorrow's friday. 02.50 -03..50 area still resist here tho. would
(Mar 24-13:45) mike: 03 is where the dn side started on move to 1300. ,
(Mar 24-13:48) mike: a good offer / supply up there. a test of 1300 should be a buy for a scalp long, but it looks like mkt on the ropes and topped
(Mar 24-13:50) mike: if you bought test of 1300, don't overstay its just a scalp, short better odds now

(Mar 24-14:00) mike: 1301 turned good supp, this is whippy action but a test of 01.50 should be bought to keep a move higher alive.
(Mar 24-14:11) mike: 02.25-01.75 area is supp now.
(Mar 24-14:20) mike: if 02.25 holds, 06 area possible
(Mar 24-14:33) mike: need to stay over 02.50, if going to get a move going again it starts within 8 minutes
(Mar 24-14:39) mike: if 04 not cleared in next 3 min it heading dn
(Mar 24-14:42) mike: 03.00-02.50 need held... mkt normally makes a move at this timeframe
(Mar 24-14:49) mike: 03.50-03.00 needs held, at lowest, to keep this going , or a dbl top confirmed
(Mar 24-14:55) mike: 04 should be rejected, buyers pull bids up there

(Mar 24-15:06) mike: dips have been bought all day, the mkt yet do break down, but mkt sentiment is frothy , if they go back under 1303 to 1300 and not quickly reverse, an air pocket sharp drop likely needs to hold here, 1303 , 2305 nq
(Mar 24-15:17) mike: 1303 area a transition area. 03 was resist, has been both supp and resist. today. mkt ok as long as it holds, bearish if broken / 06 still possible
(Mar 24-15:21) mike: 04.50 now supp
(Mar 24-15:29) mike: 05.00 held, 1308 is next if 05.50-04.50 held
(Mar 24-15:31) mike: a gap day, trend day, early low made 40 minutes in, a high could be made near 3:40 pm .
(Mar 24-15:34) mike: if not it runs up into close , 05.50-04.50 need held , 03 still key end of day if a break
(Mar 24-15:40) mike: 05.50 is resist now, if a close under 03 its a red flag.
(Mar 24-15:46) mike: 05.50 sold, 12160 on Dow cash looks key supp there too, with 1303
(Mar 24-15:48) mike: have a good rest of the day.

 

Wednesday- March 23, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Mar 23-09:18) mike: 84.50 to 87.50 was what expected early, already happened once
(Mar 23-09:38) mike: 77-76 in cards
(Mar 23-09:39) mike: 84.75 resist. 81.50, then 77-76 area
(Mar 23-09:45) mike: 83 trend r
(Mar 23-09:48) mike: bounce to 84.50 should fail . 87.50-8800 key if cleared
(Mar 23-09:59) mike: 84.50 supp now, 86 early high test, 87.50-88.00 the key resist above.

(Mar 23-10:01) mike: sell any bounce , mkt in trouble
(Mar 23-10:02) mike: 77-76 on this leg
(Mar 23-10:12) mike: 82.00-82.50 good resist, 77-76 target
(Mar 23-10:15) mike: nq in very poor shape, better short
(Mar 23-10:19) mike: if a better bounce, 83.50 resist
(Mar 23-10:20) mike: 81.50 nee cleared to take pressure off a bit
(Mar 23-10:36) mike: 83.50 just missed, 12000 on dow cash touched. if 81.50 isn't held, test the low possible.
(Mar 23-10:50) mike: lows tested, weak attempt to dbl bottom so far. 81.50 resist
(Mar 23-10:58) mike: 81.50 rejected so for... if that was a good low, they wouldn't fail there..

(Mar 23-11:05) mike: that is better. mkt trying to probe for a low, but won't be out of the woods yet. if 80 is tested again, needs rev
(Mar 23-11:14) mike: 81.50 should hold, , 2242 on nq , a test of those should hold , or another bounce high in place
(Mar 23-11:27) mike: held at 82.25. thats new trend up supp, if 86 cleared, 87.50-88.00 next and a key area for reversal
(Mar 23-11:40) mike: 3 highs 85.50-86.00, but would need to break 84.00- 83.50 to change trend
(Mar 23-11:47) mike: 84 must hold now, or roll over again. 87.50-88.00 IF 84 area holds,

(Mar 23-12:11) mike: the 60ema on 5 min chart [per ebook] is at 85.25 now, lines up w/ 3 highs 85.50-86.00. mkt vulnerable unless cleared held
(Mar 23-12:17) mike: watch 82.50 for possible quick turn up. 12000 on dow cash. if no turn, its breaking down again
(Mar 23-12:23) mike: held at 83, the mkt is going to be ok staying over 83.00 now, but good resist to get thru n hold on to. a pullback a buy tho over 83
(Mar 23-12:27) mike: 87.50-88.00 key, then 90.75., , 86 supp
(Mar 23-12:35) mike: 87 needs held, 2258 on nq.
(Mar 23-12:38) mike: 87 bounce. don't overstay. a test of high that stalls is a good short, buyers back off up there
(Mar 23-12:46) mike: lower high nq, the higher high on es sold. a drop towards 86.00-85.50
(Mar 23-12:46) mike: if 87 not held on this dip

POWER OUTAGE

(Mar 23-16:34) mike: lighting struck pond, took out the fios , blew a receptacle off garage wall. i'll do my best for update, but still have lots of electrical issues. elevator , garage doors could be fried. just back online, hope you had a better day
 

 

Tuesday- March 22, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 22-09:24) mike: nothing early. need a break of yest small range
(Mar 22-09:33) mike: 92 key
(Mar 22-09:36) mike: that should be it
(Mar 22-09:36) mike: 93 needs broken. nq look weaker
(Mar 22-09:40) mike: 93. held but must get over 95 n hold,
(Mar 22-09:42) mike: any bounce a sell, per pattern
(Mar 22-09:48) mike: 92.50 resist now,
(Mar 22-09:50) mike: supp 1 met, must hold , nq also
(Mar 22-09:54) mike: bounce off 90.50 supp, 2253.50 nq, but 92.50 n 2260 key resist
(Mar 22-09:59) mike: resist sold, still a short

(Mar 22-10:06) mike: dbl bottom at initial supp on both es and nq, key must hold levels now.
(Mar 22-10:12) mike: dont buy
(Mar 22-10:14) mike: my daily indicators say this is to be sold, risk on longs, sell the bounces, the 87.75 should be tested
(Mar 22-10:22) mike: this bounce should fail near 92.5 if its not a low in for the morning , just not expecting a rally to stick
(Mar 22-10:28) mike: 92 supp, should hold now,
(Mar 22-10:36) mike: 92 needs held, 3 highs there at 94.50 area key above to get thru
(Mar 22-10:42) mike: 92 held its pivotal now, 2260 on nq a transition level pivotal there /
(Mar 22-10:46) mike: it a sell on strength, , can't hold gains , avoiding longs but for a quick scalp.
(Mar 22-10:55) mike: 89.00-87.75 supp, buyers pull bids on 4th test of 90

(Mar 22-11:01) mike: 87.75 just missed so fart, 85-84 likely if thats broken. 90.50 resist, then 92.00 pivotal level
(Mar 22-11:13) mike: 90.50 rejected, needs cleared or 8775 still possible
(Mar 22-11:15) mike: a bounce to last trapped, 90 was good entry, scalp out part 88.25
(Mar 22-11:32) mike: 88 area is a key supp, 12000 on dow cash also. need to be held on a re test now if going to avoid trouble and go for 85 gap on daily chart
(Mar 22-11:42) mike: wedge/ channel pattern, 89.75 area needs held now.
(Mar 22-11:48) mike: if 91 can't be cleared soon, should test 88 again.

(Mar 22-11:55) mike: 91.00-90.50 is supp now, should hold or trends back down. 88 and dow 12000 both key,
(Mar 22-12:08) mike: 90.50 held, wedge break tho, test of 88 area on a break , 92 area resist should fail
(Mar 22-12:20) mike: choppy but a better bid off tht 90.50 that thought. , mkt feels safe over 90.50 , especially 88 area. right now 94.50-95 tho, buyers should back off
(Mar 22-12:31) mike: bids dry up , a short on bounce , 91 symmetry supp needs held or channel break
(Mar 22-12:33) mike: back in 15-20 min or so, audio then
(Mar 22-12:55) mike: a bounce to 91.50-92.50 area now a sell if reached n stall / back in 10 min.

(Mar 22-13:06) mike: es just missed 91.50, pressure on under that, 88 must hold or 85-84 in the cards.
(Mar 22-13:07) mike: audio on for a bit
(Mar 22-13:34) mike: low tested, if short cover a part, a break of 88 means 85-84 in the cards . 90.50 is key resist
(Mar 22-13:55) mike: mkt feels comfortable holding 88.50, but not liking it over 92 just above for long. 90.50 needs held up here

(Mar 22-14:05) mike: sell a bounce, 90.50 has been pivotal ,
(Mar 22-14:07) mike: 12040 on Dow cash can not be cleared... mkt a sell
(Mar 22-14:12) mike: don't get suckered in long, there is not much upside, downside could be a lot
(Mar 22-14:22) mike: 89.50 need cleared / held or 85-84 before this ends
(Mar 22-14:40) mike: 89.50 sold. need to be exceeded/ held on dip, or they go lower again to 12000 on dow cash or lower
(Mar 22-14:53) mike: a dbl bottom possible , but 89.50 still needs cleared / holds

(Mar 22-15:03) mike: no gusto on bounces, 3 pt move then drop.
(Mar 22-15:17) mike: 90.50 , key, mkt has a good bid around 88.50 late day, mkt will avoid trouble if a dip holds 89.25 area , won't if broken n not reversed pronto
(Mar 22-15:31) mike: 89.25 did its job, now must get over 90.50, pivotal again end of day.
(Mar 22-15:51) mike: wedge break again, have a good rest of the day

 

 

Monday- March 21, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 21-09:18) mike: 88.00 s1, then 85-84 area
(Mar 21-09:42) mike: 89 needs held, should reverse no later 10-20 min if its going to, 91 key
(Mar 21-09:45) mike: 90 area supp now
(Mar 21-09:49) mike: 88 was resist turned supp , its very key area. as long as its held , no big damage done. 92 needs held, or it starts getting toppy
(Mar 21-09:52) mike: stall under 95, it needs ushed thru soon or drop quick
(Mar 21-09:56) mike: 92 50-92.00 needs held

(Mar 21-10:01) mike: 92.25 hold, key - pivotal
(Mar 21-10:09) mike: 97.5-98.50 resist / as long as dip of 2.50 pts holds , mkt ok, but a bit toppy,
(Mar 21-10:14) mike: 93.50 now needs held to avoid trend break
(Mar 21-10:19) mike: early highs in if cant get going off 93.50
(Mar 21-10:29) mike: 93.50-92.50 key to hold to avoid breaking trend , seem upside limited from up here, 97.50-98.50 resist above to beware of.
(Mar 21-10:37) mike: 95.50 needs cleared
(Mar 21-10:38) mike: rounding type top, lost mo. vulnerable under 95.50 ,123 pattern

(Mar 21-11:06) mike: the pullbacks are holding, nothing to cause fear of buying , 94 should hold if going to move over the 95.50 area
(Mar 21-11:16) mike: 94.50-94.00 need held up here if going to see 97.50-98.50 area today / 1300 on spx needs pushed thru too
(Mar 21-11:21) mike: nq needs to stay over 2269 also.
(Mar 21-11:25) mike: must hold 94 es, 2268 nq , transition down if broken and not quickly reversed
(Mar 21-11:31) mike: 94.00 hold. 95.00-95.25 resist , should not be cleared if a high is in , 2269 on nq
(Mar 21-11:37) mike: top in for awhile, 95.50-96.00 shouldn't be seen, if 94.00-94.50 tested should be sold
(Mar 21-11:45) mike: 94.00 was sold, but need 92.50-92.00 to break range

(Mar 21-12:12) mike: 3rd big up day in a row, the sp500 cash [SPX] is having trouble at 1300, twice reversed. and vix dropped 15% intraday... upside limited , a decent pullback , 12000 on dow cash, should be the better support.

(Mar 21-12:21) mike: back over 94 and holding, stuck in trading range. 94 needs held to avoid shakeout
(Mar 21-12:39) mike: if 95.50 has been a lid, a hold over it needed to extend move to 97.50-98.50... a short for scalps w/ tight stop,
(Mar 21-12:40) mike: 92.50 on dnside key to break / hold
(Mar 21-12:47) mike: it went from buy a dip, trend up, to trading range, now to sell bounces

(Mar 21-13:00) mike: 93.00-92.50 bottom of this range, need to get over 94 and hold that , or break down
(Mar 21-13:18) mike: 92.50 bid up. still in range, that 92.50 key supp.
(Mar 21-13:29) mike: 82.50-9300 resist now
(Mar 21-13:30) mike: 89.75 supp, then 88 area key . nq still leader, better short 2259-61 strong resist
(Mar 21-13:33) mike: 92.50 supp/ now resist , its sell bounce afternoon,
(Mar 21-13:50) mike: buy program the tick reached +800, dropped fast. a pullback should / must hold 92.25-92.00 at most

(Mar 21-14:03) mike: 93.50-93.00 needs to hold to push higher.
(Mar 21-14:10) mike: 93.25 held.

(Mar 21-14:19) mike: still stuck in range. a scalp mkt today, stand aside if not your kind of ''action'' , just 8.50 pt day session range, and not as many swings today. 93 area needs held

(Mar 21-14:27) mike: mkt getting overbought, vix plunge is bearish. 93 area holding, but careful w/ long up here. could bounce, but not far from a better shorting opportunity
(Mar 21-14:32) mike: 93.25 held 3 times, must hold to stay in range or try breakout above 94.50
(Mar 21-14:44) mike: another dbl top, sell zone
(Mar 21-14:45) mike: 2266 on nq a sell too
(Mar 21-14:47) mike: if 93.50-9300 breaks, not reversed fast, then this channel breaks. 94.50 r now to clear hold above
(Mar 21-14:59) mike: buyers pull bids this gets hit late. careful on long side, bounces are sold in to

(Mar 21-15:06) mike: could make fast move towards 88 area, 12000 dow cash. dble / triple tops at 1300 a logical area after 3 big up days , 91.50 is 60ema on 5 min, needs held , key rgt in here

(Mar 21-15:13) mike: end of day, ths 92.25 needs held, or can be a poor close. 95.50 obvious resist
(Mar 21-15:17) mike: lots of longs and shorts want to see bounce to sell, won't be be easy to hold any gains, mkt bearish up here
(Mar 21-15:29) mike: 91.75-92.25 resist ,
(Mar 21-15:33) mike: last 30 min, that 90.25 was symmetrical to prior drop. 91.75-92.25 rejected once, needs cleared n held to avoid test / break of the lows
(Mar 21-15:39) mike: 91.75 need held to avoid test of 90.25 or lower. have a good day.


 

Friday- March 18, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Mar 18-09:12) mike: fluid situation in Libya, 77-76 area key. not sure what to expect, but volatility is pretty certain.
(Mar 18-09:19) mike: 87.50-88.50 , 93.50-94.25 resist above, 1298 should not be exceeded/ held /
(Mar 18-09:32) mike: 87.50 sold its key to hold

(Mar 18-09:58) mike: 11900 on dow cash pivotal again, 1281 ES.. 77-76 is key supp if that breaks, that area a buy if reached and a stall/ reversal. . if its not held, the 73-72 area will. -- on top, a hold over 84 needed to get going to 87 area,

(Mar 18-10:03) mike: NQ easier on short side.
(Mar 18-10:10) mike: NQ reached unchanged, with ES still up 12. follow nq lead
(Mar 18-10:15) mike: should be good supp at 77-76 area, a gap ill and pre open last trapped. 81 will need cleared/ held to get out of dn trends, 11900 on dow cash too
(Mar 18-10:23) mike: 81.25 rejected, , still pivotal it looks . 77-76 should be tested if 81.50 not cleared soon.
(Mar 18-10:32) mike: 77-76 area cover part of shorts, trail stop on rest. 80.50-81.25 resist now.
(Mar 18-10:40) mike: i'm about to go for the rest of the day. that 77-76 area still key supp, might be a morning low. 70.50-81.25 needs cleared/ held on a dip to get upside going.

(Mar 18-11:04) mike: mkt should be out of trouble for this morning. the 77 level reversed, was well bid, and dips are holding. the 80.50 area needs held on a dip.
(Mar 18-11:05) mike: have a good day trading and a great weekend. ''see'' you on monday.
(Mar 18-11:40) mike: 76 filled gap on daily chart, upside limited , especially nq. the end of day could get big reversal if nq can not get going on the upside and stick. take care

(Mar 18-14:20) mike: 72.50, then 69.50 next supp
(Mar 18-14:26) mike: 72.50 held, but 75.50-76.50 good resist. needs cleared/ held or lower -- take care

 

 

Thursday- March 17, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 17-09:16) mike: 1267.75 area, 64-63 area the good supp now. should be another 2 sided day
(Mar 17-09:17) mike: 74.50-76.00 should be very strong resist
(Mar 17-09:32) mike: if 72.50 not cleared a drop to 64 possible
(Mar 17-09:35) mike: 68.25-67.75 old resist is supp 1 to break thru if goin to 64
(Mar 17-09:40) mike: 67.75 key now
(Mar 17-09:47) mike: 68.25 resist now
(Mar 17-09:53) mike: 11700 on dow cash is the key supp area, 64-63 on ES / leading indicators at 10am

(Mar 17-10:07) mike: 68.50 need cleared, held on a dip
(Mar 17-10:12) mike: nq not going w/ es here, 68 need held up here
(Mar 17-10:16) mike: 68 held, so far, key it looks , 2228 on nq needs held
(Mar 17-10:19) mike: not overstay longs or short, 72,50 resist, then74.50-76.00 area
(Mar 17-10:26) mike: 2233 on nq , 71 on es is trend up supp now
(Mar 17-10:38) mike: 74.50 resist high , the 72 area needs held now or trend up gets reversed
(Mar 17-10:40) mike: 123 top, 74.25 shouldnt be cleared/ held
(Mar 17-10:46) mike: watch 2237 on nq for supp, 70.50 on es, a break stops stair step up, and is opening range on es
(Mar 17-10:55) mike: 70.50 , 2237 test held, as long as dip not more than 4 pts, no damage done today

(Mar 17-11:07) mike: NQ leading this, 76 area nxt resist over 74.50. if 70.50 breaks, needs to be an instant reversal up , or bears will take control
(Mar 17-11:12) mike: 72.50 small supp. needs held if 74.50 is not a dbl top
(Mar 17-11:14) mike: top in on es, especially if 70.50 not held
(Mar 17-11:19) mike: 11750 on dow cash needs broken, if its broken it opens the door to go to test the 64-63 area / 1272.50 resist now on a pop up
(Mar 17-11:30) mike: pop ailed at 71.75. 70.50 resist now . need nq to break that 2237 to put press on

(Mar 17-11:45) mike: mkt struggling, however the action has been bullish in the NQ so far, the 2237 area is transition area , 68 area on ES. they need defended on this pullback , or a little head n shoulder top in.

(Mar 17-11:50) mike: 64-63 key
(Mar 17-11:53) mike: 70.25 resist.
(Mar 17-11:55) mike: upside seems limited, but 2237 on NQ still the key . a trading range until broken

(Mar 17-12:03) mike: short any pop under 71.50 area, 64-63 in cards
(Mar 17-12:15) mike: 71 key up here, if cleared, then the high is next
(Mar 17-12:18) mike: 71 sold but if 69.50 now supp holds they can go higher
(Mar 17-12:23) mike: i will be in and out this afternoon. it will stay lethargic most likely. NCAA Tourney getting more attention.
(Mar 17-12:33) mike: 69.50 held its now key/ small transition area. 73.50 resist on this move
(Mar 17-12:49) mike: sell a bounce , that fails near 71-72, avoid longs up here, need deeper drop,

(Mar 17-13:12) mike: this trading range should continue... watch the 2:20-2:40pm timeframe for a move to get going if there is going to be a break of the range

(Mar 17-13:24) mike: mkt very oversold coming in to the day, and it shot up on open, since, it rejected 74.50 resist and hasnt seen it after dbl top, be short on a bounce, a high is in today, 64-63 is still possible before bein a buying opportunity

(Mar 17-13:40) mike: 64 tested. key dn there
(Mar 17-13:44) mike: nq the leader today, its a better short
(Mar 17-13:46) mike: 1258 area next key supp. as long as 17.50 old supp/ now resist held
(Mar 17-13:55) mike: if 11700 on dow cash not reversed fast here, another 50 pts lower on that avg
(Mar 17-13:57) mike: 11700 key dn here, 64.50-65.25 area trend resist on this bounce needs broken/ held on a dip .

(Mar 17-14:15) mike: 65 was sold, that key resist now. back in a bit
(Mar 17-14:37) mike: 67.50 is key resist up here
(Mar 17-14:39) mike: i wasnt paying enough attention, but the dow cash did double bottom 11700, that was well bid, and that should be the key to stay over to avoid another break lower.

(Mar 17-15:08) mike: 66.50 was resist, now supp again. mkt is ok as long as that holds on a dip. if broken, 11700 on dow still the big level. good resist and likely another turn around 72.00-72. 50 area

(Mar 17-15:14) mike: i'll be away the rest of the day. careful, bids can dry up , more risk up here than dn at lower levels . have a good day

 

 

Wednesday- March 16, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 16-09:24) mike: 68 area must be held, 84 area on top strong resist
(Mar 16-09:46) mike: 72 is pivotal early. 11800 dow cash
(Mar 16-09:57) mike: 70.50 needs held

(Mar 16-10:00) mike: 70.50 held but nq turn, must get over 73.50/hold
(Mar 16-10:05) mike: 70.50 key supp, reversal if broken. 75 good resist
(Mar 16-10:14) mike: 75 key rejected. mkt still vulnerable under that
(Mar 16-10:24) mike: 70.50 needs broken soon to reverse , range 70.50 to 74.50 needs broken out of
(Mar 16-10:36) mike: pop to 75 rejected... sell a pop up that stalls out, , if 71 breaks they can get hit with a decent drop
(Mar 16-10:41) mike: mkt has a bid on dips, as long as 72 area holds, mkt will be a buy on dip to 77 area or so
(Mar 16-10:47) mike: 74.00-73.50 needs held or dynamics change
(Mar 16-10:56) mike: wedge break, sell bounces, 74 good r

(Mar 16-11:02) mike: 58 reached, 67 a good resist now
(Mar 16-11:07) mike: avoiding longs for now, bounces wont stick,
(Mar 16-11:09) mike: 55 key, then 48-47 area. 67.50-68.50 good resist
(Mar 16-11:17) mike: thats as far as it goes or low will be in,
(Mar 16-11:24) mike: 63 looks key here to hold
(Mar 16-11:31) mike: 63 held. thats key to hold now , nq need to get going or this too will fail.
(Mar 16-11:45) mike: a pennant pattern between 68.50 resist, 63 supp. a break to test lows should be bought or mkt breaks a dbl bottom at a major supp , not good

(Mar 16-11:51) mike: no come back today unless the 68.50 area is cleared, then held on a dip. that has been the case lately on rally , they get enough momentum to hold on a dip, push higher. if that doesn't happen as expected by most by now, look out as it can unwind towards 1148 or so yet.

(Mar 16-11:54) mike: its a short under 65, 68.50 at most. will be away a bit, wiill do audio after 1pm

(Mar 16-12:30) mike: if 63 cleared/ held , to 58 next r
(Mar 16-12:36) mike: meant 68 on top
(Mar 16-12:41) mike: they might bounce, just avoid longs until things are right. for now, 63-64 is still good resist
(Mar 16-12:42) mike: 56-55 area banged against 3 times, a 4th or 5th will cut thru that area

(Mar 16-13:09) mike: 63 failed 3 times, triangle pattern, bearish under 63-64
(Mar 16-13:12) mike: 52 minor on break, then 48-47 area / audio for a bit here
(Mar 16-13:29) mike: 61 on es and 11700 on dow cash both need cleared to take some pressure off.
(Mar 16-13:31) mike: a break of 56.00-55.25 , 52.50 minor supp, 48-47 bigger supp
(Mar 16-13:41) mike: 4th time broke, 58.50-59.0- resist now
(Mar 16-13:46) mike: they ran stops and reversed. 58.50 needs cleared to take some pressure off,
(Mar 16-13:48) mike: 58.25-58.75 looks pivotal to break/ hold to try to bounce back
(Mar 16-13:58) mike: 58 sold. still key, 61 area if cleared/ held

(Mar 16-14:05) mike: watch nq 2212 resist , it leads, 58 area very key now, 52.50 just missed but its minor, avoid bottom picking, err, avoid longs still for now ,this still not out of trouble

(Mar 16-14:10) mike: 54.50-66.50 good resist now.
(Mar 16-14:11) mike: 48-47 should be in the cards if 55 not cleared / held
(Mar 16-14:13) mike: 52.50 resist now.
(Mar 16-14:18) mike: 50.25 trend resist, the 1244 next supp, 1238-35 area would be next
(Mar 16-14:22) mike: 44 reversed, but 48-49 trend resist,
(Mar 16-14:27) mike: 52 area resist, then 55.50. a dip should hold 48 to avoid trouble now. a retest should give bounce
(Mar 16-14:39) mike: 52 AREA KEY SUPP NOW, OLD 55.50 RESIST
(Mar 16-14:43) mike: 61 .50 AREA NOW KEY RESIST, 55 AREA SHOULD HOLD OR 52 TEST
(Mar 16-14:47) mike: that should be key to break hold 1261 area, tho 55 should be supp now ,
(Mar 16-14:50) mike: 61 rejected, 56 trend supp on dip need held to stay outta trouble

(Mar 16-15:04) mike: 11700 on dow cash needs cleared/ held
(Mar 16-15:06) mike: 58.75 needs broken soon to roll over a bit , 56.25-55.50 key supp then
(Mar 16-15:25) mike: 63 need cleared, 11700 dow
(Mar 16-15:30) mike: 55 resist, 52.50 then 48-47
(Mar 16-15:38) mike: 52.50 was held by a point, 58 area pivotal it looks. watch 11600 on dow cash for better supp, 48 area ES
(Mar 16-15:38) mike: have a great rest of the day

 

Tuesday- March 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 15-09:09) mike: this should be an ugly day. high volatility, not bottom fishing, but selling a good bounce. we even have fed later. bounces should fail

(Mar 15-09:15) mike: there should be plenty of tradable moves. just need 1 to make a good day, wait for good setups. the 55-54 area was a major area, the 1145 then 1136 are the next ones / resist around 72.50 if a decent bounce

(Mar 15-09:36) mike: pressure on under 61.50. if cleared, or in case of decent bounce, 1280.26 on sp500 cash is 200 day ma.
(Mar 15-09:47) mike: 61.50 area must hold,
(Mar 15-09:49) mike: 66 area resist, ten 72.50 area if thats not rejected
(Mar 15-09:52) mike: reversal area ,
(Mar 15-09:52) mike: 61.50 needs held on small dip
(Mar 15-09:57) mike: came off from reversal zone n broke 61.50, bounces a short under 65

(Mar 15-10:00) mike: need to hold here at 58 or low tested
(Mar 15-10:03) mike: if dow cash breaks 11700 , pressure back on. 61.50 resist
(Mar 15-10:14) mike: 58 held as did 11700. a test of those would need to hold /reverse or bigger break down. resist at 66 area, then 72.50 if cleared/held
(Mar 15-10:26) mike: 64 area should / must hold now 11800 on dow cash a target/ resist.
(Mar 15-10:29) mike: 68 small resist, but 72.50 still better resist
(Mar 15-10:31) mike: 11800 area tested, 65.00-64.50 transition area needs held on a pullback.
(Mar 15-10:38) mike: 65 held, key now or 63 test
(Mar 15-10:46) mike: Dow struggling to get thru 11800... trend up broken if 65.50 not held on this dip
(Mar 15-10:53) mike: 66.50 held on dip, 72 -73 area in site , key
(Mar 15-10:57) mike: despite es going higher, dow still stuck under 11800 , needs cleared soon, mkt still vulnerable

(Mar 15-11:01) mike: es is at 20 ema on 5 min day session chart at 69.50. needs cleared , toppy up here
(Mar 15-11:04) mike: a break/ hold under 65.25 needed to put pressure on
(Mar 15-11:08) mike: reached 65 but no hold under 65.25. 62.25 supp if 65.25 broken/ held. .

(Mar 15-11:17) mike: mkt is not out of trouble unless 11800 on dow cash and 20ema on 5 min es chart are exceeded. for supp, again its the 1265 level thats pivotal. early high and defended on dip so far. so, stuck here , those are both key and we're in the middle here

(Mar 15-11:25) mike: choppy, be selective, there still is fed today. scalps only in this, bears in charge right now but that can change in a flash. 1265 needs held

(Mar 15-11:32) mike: buy dips over 66-65 area, sell when upside stalls watch 72.50-74.00 for good resist. i'll be in and out of my office here from around noon until 1pm, a quick audio until around then.

(Mar 15-11:43) mike: 68 need defended to continue higher. , trend breaks if not held, and key 1265 could be seen. 72.50-74.00 should be strong resist if reached
(Mar 15-11:47) mike: grind higher on es and nq, now need dow to get over 11800 , or things not in sync yet
(Mar 15-11:53) mike: a test of 69 area should be sold now if rolling over

(Mar 15-12:10) mike: a pullback should hold 71.50-70.50 now. its trend up still , a 3 point dip should be the max to keep this grind up going
(Mar 15-12:13) mike: 71.25 must hold supp on dip now
(Mar 15-12:24) mike: 71.25 held but 74 should be hard to get thru n hold.. it WAS a key support here
(Mar 15-12:27) mike: wrong on that... a 3 pt dip should hold
(Mar 15-12:37) mike: at key supp, next bounce is a short now, 75-76 area if it gets there n stalls
(Mar 15-12:45) mike: 72 area resist now, 65 key
(Mar 15-12:47) mike: expect good selling if 72 area tested, , another wedge break on move lower,
(Mar 15-12:53) mike: 72 es , 11800 dow cash are pivotal resist on this bounce , 2252 nq

(Mar 15-13:15) mike: 123 type low there at 68.75, thats key supp now
(Mar 15-13:18) mike: trouble,
(Mar 15-13:20) mike: unable to get over 11800 on dow n stick. 72-73 was good resist, still is , a short on retest that stalls / reverses
(Mar 15-13:33) mike: slowing, shorts covering in front of fed. if a break of 68 , 65 should be key to hold and turn up from, or then 62.50 area.

(Mar 15-13:56) mike: 68 area has been good supp pre fed release. watch that after the release, a decent drop should be turned right back up. a 20 pt range intraday, that 65 area is the mid point and the transition higher level. that should be held , reversed , otherwise a drop to around 63 area, maybe even 1258. that would b a buy if seen an its reversed up/ if a higher high ito be made, then 77-78 should offer some resist

(Mar 15-14:21) mike: test of 72.50 that stalls is a sell , 65 is must hold
(Mar 15-14:28) mike: drop then pop, 77-78 area resist, 74-73 needs held on pullback now, should hold or the trend move will be down not up.
(Mar 15-14:36) mike: 77-78 area sold, 74 supp needs broken or 1 more push higher
(Mar 15-14:44) mike: 74.75 pullback low, needs held , , 78 must be exceeded/ held not reversed to keep going
(Mar 15-14:48) mike: trend higher as long as a dip not more than 3 pts, 80.50-81.00 resist up here
(Mar 15-14:54) mike: 1281 200d ma, resist here , 76.50 is must hold
(Mar 15-14:59) mike: 76.50 held, if broken a high could be in , to 744 area

(Mar 15-15:04) mike: no reversal, looks like 75.50-74.50 area good supp, a dip back there that holds keeps the move from reversing.
(Mar 15-15:06) mike: selling early and rally late has been the pattern. this can get to 80.50-82.00 or higher
(Mar 15-15:09) mike: wouldn't hold long overnight, bad opens lately. a decent pullback in morning a buy , not up here for me
(Mar 15-15:21) mike: 81 fills gap on daily chart
(Mar 15-15:22) mike: 77.50 shouldn't be broken.
(Mar 15-15:24) mike: 84.50-85.00 next resist, but a 300-3.75 pt pullback should hold
(Mar 15-15:26) mike: 80.00-79.50 key end of day.
(Mar 15-15:33) mike: 80.50 resist now, a short up there
(Mar 15-15:36) mike: this isn't quite out of the woods yet, good resist just above , a deeper drop a buy caution up here
(Mar 15-15:41) mike: that dip was 3.75 pts, fit the other dips. mkt a buy if tested/ reversed dn there / if not defended, then we get that deeper drop to buy
(Mar 15-15:47) mike: 84 was small resist, the 87.50-88.00 can get tested/ reversed in the morning if they dont drop thru 80 and stay
(Mar 15-15:49) mike: that 84 and 11900 on dow cash again initial resist here again now,
(Mar 15-15:50) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

Monday- March 14, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Mar 14-09:09) mike: 94.50-95.25 area resist , pivotal
(Mar 14-09:40) mike: 94.50 resist sold, 92 s
(Mar 14-09:46) mike: 94.50-95.25 resist , 12000 dow cash , sold on bounce, key resist both
(Mar 14-09:50) mike: 92 must break/ hold. nq
(Mar 14-09:51) mike: needs a turn dn at 2296-97

(Mar 14-10:02) mike: 92 broke, instantly turned up. a dip needs to hold 4.50 pts off what ever high is or choppy up trend breaks
(Mar 14-10:06) mike: 95.25 top of resist zone 1
(Mar 14-10:10) mike: 95. area is key/ per update, sell bounces under
(Mar 14-10:22) mike: 93 on es needs cleared/ held or pressure on
(Mar 14-10:31) mike: 92.50 rejected, so press still on , 88 supp, then 85 is key/ major
(Mar 14-10:37) mike: 88 reached, if short from 92.50 or better, cover part at 88 or better, tighten / trail stop on the rest
(Mar 14-10:44) mike: 90.50 some resist needs cleared n held there, on another drop, 85.50-84.50 area needs held or quickly reversed if tested, or the mkt in some trouble ,
(Mar 14-10:53) mike: 4.50-5.50 point bounces this morn. to avoid another drop, need clear 92 and hold, not reversed again

(Mar 14-11:07) mike: 85.50 barely held. - a 4.50 point bounce on es should fail if this is to kep symmetry in trend in gear / if a better bounce, dbl bottom could be in place. the vix is up about 10 percent, it needs to reverse

(Mar 14-11:21) mike: 86.50-87.00 key resist now.
(Mar 14-11:28) mike: 85.50 friday low minor resist , pressure still on under that , if cleared then 87 area is key this morning
(Mar 14-11:29) mike: 78 area next supp, unless 85.50 cleared / held on dip
(Mar 14-11:40) mike: 19000 dow cash 2272 nq key dn here, size bid on nq at 2272.50
(Mar 14-11:56) mike: if nq not reversed from a lower low fast, it gets momentum lower

(Mar 14-12:08) mike: there was a good bid at lows , nq especially. trend dn to lunch time, next move there is very key, need to break 11900 and 2272 on nq to get another sizable drop if this is a gap=trend day

(Mar 14-12:18) mike: next supp at 78.00, then 72.50 area huge if a sharp break
(Mar 14-12:26) mike: there has been a good bid at 82 on ES, 2272.50 area on NQ. NQ there 4 times. thats key to hold, need to get over 85 area and hold to change trend day action
(Mar 14-12:28) mike: back near 1pm or a little later, audio then
(Mar 14-12:55) mike: trends dn unless 85 cleared
(Mar 14-13:02) mike: its ok if 83 area held, , Dow dipped under 11900 and turned up. a low could be in for awhile, if nq can keep its bid too.
(Mar 14-13:13) mike: 4.50-5.25 pt bounces sold early. , dip needs hold 83.50 area. 87.50 resist if goes further. audio for a bit staring in 5 min
(Mar 14-13:37) mike: 83.50 supp, must hold or lows tested

(Mar 14-13:55) mike: the NQ made slightly higher low than 1269.25 low on friday, dbl bottom... but the 85.50 on ES was fri low. its cleared. now 85.50-84.50 needs to be good supp on a dip now

(Mar 14-14:02) mike: 85 held but a test of 87 a sell on a stall
(Mar 14-14:10) mike: 87 sliced thru, 87.00-86.50 needs held now
(Mar 14-14:16) mike: if 87.00-86.50 not held, a bounce after that stalls/ reversed near 88.00-88.50 a short
(Mar 14-14:20) mike: watch the tick extremes on both side, been marking turns most of the day .
(Mar 14-14:21) mike: 87 helds, still ok but reversal around 90 likely
(Mar 14-14:27) mike: 90 just missed, still 87.00-86.50 key now, then 85 pivotal if deeper drop
(Mar 14-14:35) mike: 85 area should be seen again, 90 needs cleared to not close poorly
(Mar 14-14:45) mike: 85 tested, bearish pattern, could be 1 more move up but should fail at 90-91 if so,
(Mar 14-14:57) mike: 83 area next if 85 sup breaks, 87.50 shouldnt be cleared. if it is, 90 area a sell

(Mar 14-15:07) mike: 87.50 to 85.00 85 is key still
(Mar 14-15:14) mike: scalp mkt since the low, this move should hold 87 if strong still
(Mar 14-15:23) mike: that would last move to 90-91 that fails, but 87.50 holds so bulls stay in charge for now
(Mar 14-15:39) mike: dbl top on nq at 2288 and 90 area on es, dips held this afternoon, fed day tomorrow. if not cleared, mkt still is vulnerable.
(Mar 14-15:42) mike: this late, as long as 89 area holds bulls still in charge
(Mar 14-15:47) mike: have a good rest of the day, this should carry over i morn i'd think.

 

Friday- March 11, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Mar 11-09:22) mike: lower open should reverse , but avoiding longs but for a scalp, bounces should fail
(Mar 11-09:45) mike: 91.50 needs held or reversal
(Mar 11-09:46) mike: mich sentiment at 9:55 am

(Mar 11-10:04) mike: 93 area also 60 ema on 5 min chart, key to clear/ hold. 88 needs held or more trouble
(Mar 11-10:26) mike: 92.50-93.00 needs cleared/ held soon
(Mar 11-10:49) mike: 88.50-88.00 turning into key supp, in triangle pattern, a break of 88 or 92.50 on top should get a move going
(Mar 11-10:57) mike: a good bid at 88.50, , but not out of trouble unless 91 exceeded/ held on a dip

(Mar 11-11:04) mike: 92.25 needs pushed thru to finally dent down trend
(Mar 11-11:07) mike: that was quick dip from 92, wedge building, 89.50 needs defended again.
(Mar 11-11:12) mike: 89.50 area reversed. , needs held
(Mar 11-11:16) mike: sell under 92 trend resist
(Mar 11-11:23) mike: if breaking dn, 91 shouldn't be cleared. , that 89-88 is well bid, a test is a buy if its stalls/ reverses
(Mar 11-11:29) mike: top of todays range rejectd, 91 area should hold if going higher
(Mar 11-11:33) mike: 91 area key to hold now
(Mar 11-11:37) mike: trail stop if long, 91 very key now. 94.5 r 1
(Mar 11-11:42) mike: 94.50 tested, 92.50 supp now, needs held
(Mar 11-11:44) mike: 93.50 trend supp. 97 area good resist, cover of long or tighten / trail stop
(Mar 11-11:50) mike: 97 resist rejected, 94 area trend supp,

(Mar 11-12:01) mike: 94.50 held, this 12000 on dow cash has been kind of pivotal too. as long as those levels hold the trend up continues. 1 min chart setup per ebook a very good guide in this trend

(Mar 11-12:18) mike: 97 resist sold, then 94.50 held , bulls in charge as long as that 94.50 holds, 12000 dow cash
(Mar 11-12:26) mike: 97.00-96.50 supp now, 1300 area next hurdle above
(Mar 11-12:38) mike: bounce should fail near 97.50- 98.00, then 95 area next,

(Mar 11-12:52) mike: bounce failed 1 tick under 97.50, the 95 area should / must hold tho, 12000 dow cash too. a bottom of some sort should be in, mkt is buy dips unless 95 broken and not quickly turned back up . if tht happens 92.50 then key to hold

(Mar 11-13:00) mike: this stall up here , careful if there is a pop up that reverses near the high/ token higher high,, could retrace to 92.50 break-out area

(Mar 11-13:12) mike: 95.00 then 92.50 supp / targets below 97.50
(Mar 11-13:20) mike: 96 area resist now
(Mar 11-13:34) mike: 92.50 missed by a point so far, 96 area still good resist
(Mar 11-13:42) mike: 96.25 sold, that and 2291..50 on nq key resist now.
(Mar 11-13:54) mike: a dip should hold over 94.50 to stay strong. 97.50 is resist to break to squeeze shorts to 1300 area or a bit higher

(Mar 11-14:06) mike: 94.50 still supp.... 97.50 still resist.
(Mar 11-14:16) mike: 1300 can be seen , hold 96.50 area
(Mar 11-14:29) mike: 98.00-97.50 now supp. , needs held to stair step higher.
(Mar 11-14:43) mike: 1300 reached. 98.50 needs held now

(Mar 11-15:05) mike: 1300 supp now. 06.50 would fill gap on daily chart.
(Mar 11-15:21) mike: 1300 held. its key end of day. 06.50
(Mar 11-15:31) mike: 02 looks key to stay over,
(Mar 11-15:31) mike: long week, have a good weekend ''see'' you monday

 

 

Thursday- March 10, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 10-09:05) mike: 12 pts under fair value, spx will lose 10 pts. sell bounces to 1300 area on March ES, 1295 June ES. back near 10am
(Mar 10-09:24) julie: Mike will be back in about 90 minutes or so...we're sorry for the inconvenience

(Mar 10-10:00) mike: 1302.50 on march, 97.50 on june is pivotal resist on bounce
(Mar 10-10:29) mike: 1300 on march, 1295 june is key now
(Mar 10-10:33) mike: the listed supp area on march contracts broken... so, for going to the Jie contracts, root symbol ES M1
(Mar 10-10:34) mike: break hold under 12000 dow cash needed to put pressure on.
(Mar 10-10:41) mike: KEY DN HERE
(Mar 10-10:43) mike: IF dow dips to 12000 and turned up, its a long. W bottom , 1290 on June futures good supp should/ must hold
(Mar 10-10:47) mike: 95 on june, 1300.50 march, need cleared/ held to get something going on upside , avoid a retest of lows

(Mar 10-11:01) mike: 94.50 on june needs held to keep trend up, or starts to roll over
(Mar 10-11:04) mike: 94.50 held so far, if 94.50 not held, a bounce after a sell
(Mar 10-11:12) mike: 94.50 resist now, , a break of 92.50 puts pressure back on
(Mar 10-11:21) mike: a pullback should hold 96.00-94.50 to push higher. otherwise back to 93 area
(Mar 10-11:30) mike: 95.00-94.50 held, but the pop up failed, sell a bounce back towards 96-97 area
(Mar 10-11:36) mike: that 94.50 level pivotal , needs a break to break wedge/ channel , awaiting for a good setup to trade.
(Mar 10-11:49) mike: that looks like a pre noon high, a test of 2288-2290 on nq that stalls is a good odds short

(Mar 10-12:06) mike: dip in this channel have been 2.50 pts, thats 96.50 and the last low at 96 even more key as channel breaks then
(Mar 10-12:11) mike: break down, and nq reversed just over that 2290 level, if reached, and move stalls out, its a short
(Mar 10-12:28) mike: bounce failed under 2290 area nq, watch dow 12000 for supp dn here
(Mar 10-12:48) mike: the 96.50 area should get cleared/ held if going higher

(Mar 10-13:00) mike: low should be in, a good bid on dips now. 97 area supp to hold
(Mar 10-13:02) mike: 1300.50 is just under the 1301 high, 60ema on 5 min chart, resist to push thru to get this turned around, and not fake out
(Mar 10-13:17) mike: a key spot at 1300, a dip to 97.50 or higher should be bought, 2291 on nq. transition areas that are key supp now to hold to avoid late day drubbing again
(Mar 10-13:26) mike: well, a bounce to test 98 a short.
(Mar 10-13:27) mike: don't get suckered in buying, a bounce will fail
(Mar 10-13:40) mike: 93 resist now.
(Mar 10-13:45) mike: audio update in about 5-10 min
(Mar 10-13:57) mike: 93 area sold, its looks key to get over n hld

(Mar 10-14:28) mike: 94.50 resist, 92.50 key to break
(Mar 10-14:39) mike: 97 resist per audio just missed, that is bigger trend resist, still as 94.50-94.00 holds on dip , the mkt stays in rally mode
(Mar 10-14:46) mike: 94.50 key, 97 area needs cleared tho
(Mar 10-14:53) mike: 2:40pm high, 97 key resist, 92.50 must hold or lows get tested after a bounce

(Mar 10-15:02) mike: wedge break, 95 good resist now
(Mar 10-15:06) mike: 12000 dow needs pushed thru
(Mar 10-15:07) mike: 93.50- 9400 resist
(Mar 10-15:23) mike: bounce attempt time, 92.50 resist , 12000 dow cash
(Mar 10-15:30) mike: buyers should l back off till tomorrow. could bounce , but careful picking a bottom yet
(Mar 10-15:42) mike: 95.25 area resist . 91 should hold if this stays up into close
(Mar 10-15:48) mike: mkt has damage done. 91 held, could get bounce , but this is not a low that sticks . have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- March 09, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 09-09:08) mike: if short from 24-25 yesterday, cover at least part at this initial supp zone
(Mar 09-09:10) mike: busy morning here, i'll update around 10am
(Mar 09-09:29) mike: 22.50 resist 1, then yest highs
(Mar 09-09:54) mike: 17.50-18.00 key r now
(Mar 09-09:58) mike: 15 pivotal

(Mar 09-10:12) mike: dbl bottom at the 12.50 supp, buyers back off on bounce, need to clear 17.50 and hold it on a dip, or still vulnerable
(Mar 09-10:22) mike: 17 supp now, 20.50 minor resist.. bottom in as long 18 held tho. big triangle on the daily chart, 12.50 bottom side, 24 area top side
(Mar 09-10:33) mike: dow cash turned back from yest afternoon high. 22.50 needs cleared or still range bound
(Mar 09-10:41) mike: 17.75-17.25 area needs held.
(Mar 09-10:54) mike: they might bounce, but not stick. th2 22 area on es, 2333 area nq not to be exceeded/ held

(Mar 09-11:00) mike: 08.50007.50 next
(Mar 09-11:08) mike: the bulls need to get this moving up fast, otherwise this fails to get over 17 and drops to 08 area
(Mar 09-11:12) mike: 17 area on ES, 12200 Dow cash, resist on this bounce
(Mar 09-11:24) mike: 17 area rejected, its hey to get over and hold over, otherwise 08.50 possible still
(Mar 09-11:28) mike: 17 es, 2318 nq, 12200 dow cash key to clear. 15 supp now,
(Mar 09-11:41) mike: there still is a good bid on dips, a dip to 15.50-14.75 area should/ must hold now in this 2 way chop

(Mar 09-12:00) mike: 17 area now good supp, needs held on a dip to keep stair step up. actually 18.50-18.00 now supp need held, ,
(Mar 09-12:04) mike: bids should dry up n give a pullback. 19.25-18.50 supp on dip, needs held. audio in about 30 min,
(Mar 09-12:19) mike: watch this 20.50-20.00 for a bounce if this is to keep going. or not
(Mar 09-12:25) mike: a 3rd time up here, 18.50 in cards if no reversal from 20
(Mar 09-12:28) mike: 18.50 met, 20.75-21.50 resist, 16 area if 18.50 breaks

(Mar 09-12:43) mike: i just was notified a good friends wife died this morn. after a 10 week battle w/ bacterial meningitis. just home a few days ago and was doing great, then this. back later, need a break.....

(Mar 09-13:06) mike: 18.50 held quite awhile, if broken and not reversed fast, back to test lows
(Mar 09-13:16) mike: 18 holding, and must. 3 failures to stay over 22 area, i favor short under that, the 1312 still can be seen again given the volatility.
(Mar 09-13:23) mike: if 22 is not rejected a 4th time up there, then 24.50 is resist, then 28 area. that 22 is key, as is 18 below.
(Mar 09-13:39) mike: 18 should break, careful
(Mar 09-13:50) mike: nq dn 17 pts while es dn 1 pt, the lower high needs broken at 2324 or mkt still vulnerable and 1313-12 possible on es
(Mar 09-13:53) mike: 19 area resist, 2318 on nq
(Mar 09-13:55) mike: 12200 dow cash supp, then 13-12 on es if broken

(Mar 09-14:13) mike: timid mkt, a break out on upside IF there is a 5 min close over 1321, looks like 18.50 is pivotal in here
(Mar 09-14:17) mike: i'm not on top of my game, but mkt acts like it could get going on the upside
(Mar 09-14:19) mike: break 22 and hold needed to keep this going
(Mar 09-14:26) mike: very choppy afternoon. need 5 min close over 22 , or at worst hold 18.50, to avoid trouble late day.
(Mar 09-14:28) mike: odd, the bulls had a chance to really gun this higher, but failed to.
(Mar 09-14:34) mike: 13-12 area still possible if 17 not held

(Mar 09-14:47) mike: i will be away the last hour, 12200 on dow cash held, but 19 area resist should be sold if weak. 13-12 key supp. on top, a hold over 21.50-22.00 area would cause short squeeze

(Mar 09-14:59) mike: before i go, a big triangle pattern on daily chart, and this is a flag pattern, a break/ hold over 21.50-22.00 to get it going . must hold, not reverse again.
(Mar 09-15:00) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

Tuesday- March 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

Mar 8, 2011 9:19:58 AM EST mike: initial supp held, its key supp this morn
Mar 8, 2011 9:40:54 AM EST mike: 13 high, per update last night.
Mar 8, 2011 9:44:24 AM EST mike: 11 resist, 2323 nq
Mar 8, 2011 9:49:37 AM EST mike: 08.50 pivotal
Mar 8, 2011 9:55:10 AM EST mike: 10.50 resist now, it can be seen IF 08.50 is not broken
Mar 8, 2011 9:58:43 AM EST mike: 10.50-11.00 key now , 08.50 below must hold supp

Mar 8, 2011 10:06:42 AM EST mike: a pullback should hold today, 12-11 area supp, should hold to get a 2-sided day
Mar 8, 2011 10:11:32 AM EST mike: 13 key , mkt trend up as long as it holds
Mar 8, 2011 10:17:55 AM EST mike: 19.50-20.50 strong resist area
Mar 8, 2011 10:24:59 AM EST mike: 19.50 just missed, key resist , 15 now supp must hold
Mar 8, 2011 10:31:33 AM EST mike: dbl top, sell under 1950
Mar 8, 2011 10:35:13 AM EST mike: mkt is ok unless 16 area breaks, careful short. for now
Mar 8, 2011 10:37:16 AM EST mike: 17 needs held now to avoid reversing, eye on nq its leading
Mar 8, 2011 10:42:38 AM EST mike: toppy, under 18.50 a sell
Mar 8, 2011 10:53:06 AM EST mike: need to break 15 to do and damage, , just don't see this as a trend up day tho,
Mar 8, 2011 10:53:56 AM EST mike: should wing both ways w/ upside bias as long as 15 area holds

Mar 8, 2011 11:00:56 AM EST mike: short, tight stop
Mar 8, 2011 11:01:16 AM EST mike: scalp trade
Mar 8, 2011 11:02:16 AM EST mike: 16.50 supp, then 15 key
Mar 8, 2011 11:06:28 AM EST mike: 16.50 looking key now.
Mar 8, 2011 11:13:02 AM EST mike: toped for now, nq lead dog
Mar 8, 2011 11:18:31 AM EST mike: the mkt has a good bid on dips around 16-15 area now. this range up here holds as long as that defended , just limited upside from here it appears
Mar 8, 2011 11:22:09 AM EST mike: 18 needs held now to get to 1320
Mar 8, 2011 11:26:48 AM EST mike: 19.00-18.25 sup now to stay trend up
Mar 8, 2011 11:39:19 AM EST mike: 20.50 on ES, 12200 dow cash need held, or the bounce that follows sold
Mar 8, 2011 11:46:34 AM EST mike: trend up still unless 20.50 broken. 24.00-24.50 key above // major areas on a break dn at 1316-15 on ES, 2332-2330 area on NQ
Mar 8, 2011 11:49:34 AM EST mike: 20.50 ES, 2339.50 NQ now need held to avoid reversal
Mar 8, 2011 11:56:54 AM EST mike: 22 trend supp now, if long, this area possible turning point

Mar 8, 2011 12:03:24 PM EST mike: 23.00-22.50 good supp now on a pullback , 2344 area on NQ
Mar 8, 2011 12:04:37 PM EST mike: 1 min chart setup per ebook a trend guide in these momentum moves. 24 supp there
Mar 8, 2011 12:09:39 PM EST mike: 24 needs held to keep this going
Mar 8, 2011 12:14:53 PM EST mike: 24 held so far, but bids lightening up a bit up around 25.50 , 22.50 next supp if broken
Mar 8, 2011 12:15:31 PM EST mike: that was fast. 25 looks like a short now
Mar 8, 2011 12:18:20 PM EST mike: a move to 22.50 would need to reverse quickly , even then a test of high likely sold now
Mar 8, 2011 12:40:42 PM EST mike: stalled out, 22.50 needs held to stay trend up , if not held then longs get nervous and decent pullback in gear, 19 would be next supp
Mar 8, 2011 12:44:17 PM EST mike: 22.50 reached, but its a better short up here than long, could be an opposite day and selloff end of day
Mar 8, 2011 12:55:06 PM EST mike: 23.00-23.50 resist now, won't be exceeded if going lower towards 20.00-19.50 area or lower

Mar 8, 2011 13:16:53 PM EST mike: that 23.00-23.50 key now,
Mar 8, 2011 13:32:45 PM EST mike: tough call, but as long as under 23.50 mkt vulnerable now... on a drop, 12200 on Dow cash and the 1320 area on ES need held,
Mar 8, 2011 13:37:20 PM EST mike: a hold over 23.00-22.50 bullish, should hold on dip
Mar 8, 2011 13:44:15 PM EST mike: this move is extended, should have trouble holding any more gains, especially if high gets tested . 23 area is key to hold
Mar 8, 2011 13:51:12 PM EST mike: 23 area held, if a test 24 area, or 2347-48 on NQ again stalls, short scalp

Mar 8, 2011 14:04:44 PM EST mike: short any bounce now, tops in
Mar 8, 2011 14:06:07 PM EST mike: 23 area strong resist, 2344 on nq
Mar 8, 2011 14:12:31 PM EST mike: 19.50 small supp
Mar 8, 2011 14:19:00 PM EST mike: 19.50 held, 21 .75-22.50 good resist
Mar 8, 2011 14:29:05 PM EST mike: 21.75 rejected, , 19.50 very key now below
Mar 8, 2011 14:34:32 PM EST mike: big slinky at resist, the 15 area key below
Mar 8, 2011 14:43:05 PM EST mike: 2:30-2:40 timeframe bounce, they need to stick on a move over 22, otherwise a late drop.
Mar 8, 2011 14:46:12 PM EST mike: 21.50 need hold on a dip to keep this going
(Mar 08-14:54) mike: 22.50 needs held to keep this going

(Mar 08-15:00) mike: mkt still range bound under 24
(Mar 08-15:02) mike: 22.00-21.50 supp needs held
(Mar 08-15:06) mike: 21.50 held but buyers back off , not comfortable up there , a short on bounce that stalls up there
(Mar 08-15:16) mike: no stall , 26 is possible before a turn
(Mar 08-15:22) mike: 23.50-23.00 needs held now
(Mar 08-15:27) mike: short near 24-25 area, this will be sold tomorrow if not today
(Mar 08-15:30) mike: a break/ hold of 22.00-21.50 will start another good sized drop/ pullback.
(Mar 08-15:35) mike: 22.00-21.50 still key end of day.
(Mar 08-15:50 mike: 24-25 sold,
(Mar 08-15:51) mike: a short up there, toppy and buyers back off
(Mar 08-15:52) mike: have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday- March 07, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 07-09:13) mike: 12 point range overnight, 1314 to 1326. should see 2 way day again. patience
(Mar 07-09:27) mike: pullback s should hold , 20 supp 1
(Mar 07-09:35) mike: 22 s 1
(Mar 07-09:43) mike: 24.50-24.00 pivotal supp now, nq needs to not reverse here
(Mar 07-09:49) mike: 24.50 must hold to avoid reversal up here
(Mar 07-09:53) mike: short uder27.50-28.00 r
(Mar 07-09:54) mike: 22 s1

(Mar 07-10:01) mike: if 25 held, 28.50-29.00 in cards
(Mar 07-10:04) mike: buyers dont like it up there, sell strength
(Mar 07-10:11) mike: 22.25-22.00, 12200 dow cash need held or a high in , 24.59- 25.0 resist
(Mar 07-10:23) mike: bearish pattern, this bounce should fail under 24.50-25.00
(Mar 07-10:35) mike: failed at 24 so far. 24.50 is key resist now
(Mar 07-10:39) mike: 17.50 key below
(Mar 07-10:42) mike: 17.50 met, 20.50 good resist now
(Mar 07-10:46) mike: a bounce shouldn't be more than 2.50-3.50 pts on ES to keep this going. 13.75 minor supp
(Mar 07-10:55) mike: 2.00 pt bounce fails. looks like 17.50-18.00 pivotal now.

(Mar 07-11:03) mike: 17.25 sold on last bounce, 1311.25 can be seen if that not cleared
(Mar 07-11:12) mike: 12.50--11.50 zone must hold down here to stay in range, or 07.50-06.50 next / 15.50 resist now
(Mar 07-11:18) mike: bottom of range held, a move over 15.50 must hold now
(Mar 07-11:26) mike: 15 turned back. this 11.50 area needs defended or 07.50-06.50 area next. trend dn under 15.50
(Mar 07-11:36) mike: a bounce shouldnt be more than 3 ES pts if staying trend down
(Mar 07-11:46) mike: 12.50 bounce resist now. 07.50-06.50 need reversed on a test to avoid all day drop
(Mar 07-11:51) mike: lock on profits 07.50-06.50 zone, , 3 pt bounces still should fail to keep going
(Mar 07-11:57) mike: good start to the week, 10.50 resist now, this 07.50-06.50 is key, or 02 area next

(Mar 07-12:06) mike: a 3 point bounce , over 10 area and 12100 on dow cash, key above. under pressure unless cleared

(Mar 07-12:11) mike: ES dropped 20 pts, NQ 53.50 pts, to the key supp i thought we'd see last fri or today. big rally in between, but the mkt can stay range bound as long as that holds, and now if 10.50 exceeded n not reversed right away

(Mar 07-12:14) mike: if 09 holds, and 121000 dow, another push higher. audio update after lunchtime action, 1pm or so.
(Mar 07-12:31) mike: 11 old r now s.
(Mar 07-12:38) mike: 11 needs cleared/ held on a dip if its to come rallying back as it has been. pressure on unless..
(Mar 07-12:52) mike: 04.50 small supp, then 02.50-02.00 key
(Mar 07-12:52) mike: 08.50 good r now

(Mar 07-13:00) mike: 07 trend resist now. 04.50 just minor. 1300.50 the big area below
(Mar 07-13:12) mike: 04.50 resist now
(Mar 07-13:13) mike: another gap day- trend day going. don't botto, pick, it can last until 3:40pm or so
(Mar 07-13:14) mike: audio in about 5 min

(Mar 07-13:20) mike: 07 area looks key here... the ''easy'' part looks over... anyhow, audio on in 1 min

AUDIO...AUDIO...AUDIO....

(Mar 07-13:48) mike: tricky, 07 and 2315 on NQ CLEARED/, 05 now supp should hold
(Mar 07-13:52) mike: a short under 07.50 , avoiding longs
(Mar 07-13:54) mike: wedge break
(Mar 07-13:59) mike: 07 still the key resist

(Mar 07-14:05) mike: if 05 is tested again, should reverse fast, or dn to the lows .
(Mar 07-14:14) mike: 04.50 break takes then to 02 area or lower
(Mar 07-14:20) mike: 04.50 reversed. 07 should hold if not a fake out
(Mar 07-14:24) mike: 07 area held so far, key now or a head fake, 1311-12 big resist.
(Mar 07-14:31) mike: 07 just gave a pop up, tht fai
(Mar 07-14:39) mike: a pop a short. 08.50 should be good resist, 11-12 area ideal sell if reached and stalls
(Mar 07-14:53) mike: 08.50 rejected , a wedge like pattern but if cleared 11.50 can be tested
(Mar 07-14:56) mike: iffy , as poor as this has acted, who wants to buy this. not me yet, look to short bounces that stall at/ near resist w/ tight stop

(Mar 07-15:03) mike: 08.50 rejected again, 06.50 supp needs broken soon,
(Mar 07-15:06) mike: 06.50 held, choppy range here, 04.50 a key level on a break of 06.50 / 11.50 on a break u up
(Mar 07-15:15) mike: 11 area some resist, dip to 08.50 area should hold now tho
(Mar 07-15:22) mike: 11.50 rejection, 12100 dow cash. if 08.50 not held, its breaking down again.
(Mar 07-15:27) mike: 08.50 held, key end of day
(Mar 07-15:30) mike: same range bound mkt, , this pattern is bearish , rally could fizzle
(Mar 07-15:37) mike: 11.50-11.00 pivotal end of day. must stay over. 14.50 is resist again
(Mar 07-15:40) mike: 12 supp now, trend up
(Mar 07-15:41) mike: 12.00-11.50 area key to this holding or rolling late here
(Mar 07-15:45) mike: 11.50 hold, bulls comfortable unless broken
(Mar 07-15:47) mike: late day bounces have been sold early next day. 11.50 held, but caution holding long very long
(Mar 07-15:51) mike: short 12 area if testes, this pattern is bearish still
(Mar 07-15:54) mike: end of day failure a red flag too, 08.50 key area , 06.50 on break

(Mar 07-16:00) mike: this was in the pattern, 08.50
(Mar 07-16:01) mike: a settle under 11.50 is bearish , nq soft into its settlement, have a good rest of the day

 

 

Sunday- March 06, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 6-7:00pm) mike: 24 area on es, 2366.50 area nq area key ... if those not cleared, or 17.50 goes, the 1311 tests/
(Mar 6-7:01pm) mike: nq better to trade, bigger range day ahead

 

Friday- March 04, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 04-09:25) mike: bounces wont stick, a deeper drop bought. 26 area needs held
(Mar 04-09:38) mike: a bounce will be sold,
(Mar 04-09:41) mike: 27 consider major supp now, must hold
(Mar 04-09:48) mike: 29pivotal

(Mar 04-10:01) mike: 29 rejected , still key
(Mar 04-10:07) mike: 29 per last nights update was pivotal, it is still. 24.50-24.00 needs held dn here
(Mar 04-10:08) mike: 27 resist now
(Mar 04-10:14) mike: 24 trend resist now
(Mar 04-10:18) mike: 12200 on dow cash is supp, 1320 es
(Mar 04-10:19) mike: 24 area is resist still, trend resist
(Mar 04-10:21) mike: any bounce back a short , 24 then 26.50 area resist on a bounce.
(Mar 04-10:24) mike: 20.50 is fixed supp, bounce off it feeble at best. 18 area next then
(Mar 04-10:34) mike: if 21.50 cleared., 24 can be tested
(Mar 04-10:38) mike: missed 24, 21.50 needs held now
(Mar 04-10:43) mike: should top near here iif going lower
(Mar 04-10:44) mike: 24.00 key resist now,
(Mar 04-10:59) mike: resist at 24.00-24.50, 21.50 held, key supp now or to the 20 level .

(Mar 04-11:09) mike: 19.25 low was yesterday low and opening price. gap to 13.75 below 19.25
(Mar 04-11:15) mike: 20 should break.
(Mar 04-11:20) mike: vulnerable under 24.00-24.50... a break of 20 , not reversed fast, gives push to break 19.25
(Mar 04-11:24) mike: back in a bit, watch 18.50-17.50 on a break lower, audio update after 12:30pm.

(Mar 04-11:46) mike: ja dbl bottom, es spent very little time under 20.50 on both tests. 24 has been a lid a second time, right now range trade if 22 held, at lowest 20.50 not broken/ held. back near 12:30 or so...

(Mar 04-12:14) mike: 13.75target 1
(Mar 04-12:14) mike: 18 now resist
(Mar 04-12:16) mike: 1313.75 gap fill on daily chart , bounce will fail tho
(Mar 04-12:22) mike: 12 area some supp, 06 key below that
(Mar 04-12:26) mike: 12100 area now on dow need cleared to stop the bleeding , 14.75 then 17 area resist
(Mar 04-12:41) mike: a bounce of 4 pts or so, then drop another 8-12 point drop is possible if pace stays the same
(Mar 04-12:51) mike: 15.50 resist, audio on for a bit in 2 min

(Mar 04-13:11) mike: move over 15.50 takes some pressure off, 17.50-1800 area then resist, but must hold 1550 level, not reverse
(Mar 04-13:14) mike: 07-06 area next on break/ hold under 12
(Mar 04-13:24) mike: 1319.25 looked like a dbl bottom before noon. the bounce made a dbl top tho, 15 area key now to break n not reverse
(Mar 04-13:33) mike: chop around 12100 dow cash. a push thru 15.50 needs held, 13.50 supp now
(Mar 04-13:41) mike: 14.50 as far as a pullback goes or just a bounce in downtrend
(Mar 04-13:46) mike: ugly pattern, a test of those highs that stalls out a sell
(Mar 04-13:55) mike: 11.25 small supp, focus short still to 07-06 area

(Mar 04-14:01) mike: 12.00-11.50 key to hold now , 3 tests, that becomes resist if broken and 07-06 area met , 16 area will be key end of day resist
(Mar 04-14:23) mike: longs desperate for bounce to get out. 07-06 still possible unless 14.50 cleared/ held on a dip

(Mar 04-14:26) mike: a bit of basing at 12.00-11.50 area. if mkt wasn't acting horrible, a trade on long side would be ok dn there. but safer staying w/ the down trend, bounces very feeble and come back dn fast

(Mar 04-14:28) mike: 14.50 needs pushed over/ held or no go for a rally
(Mar 04-14:36) mike: 14.50 rejected, 13 looks pivotal, 12100 dow cash too
(Mar 04-14:51) mike: 14.50 still key, top if 13 breaks . if 14.50 cleared, could pop up towards 17, but fail.. 14.50 first tho, soggy mkt , no reason to rally unless lots of shorts need cvered
(Mar 04-14:53) mike: we had some good moves today, dont ruin a day with a late mistake.

(Mar 04-15:00) mike: 14.50 supp end of day, 17 area resist
(Mar 04-15:05) mike: still an hour to go, this started a bit early it seems. 16.25 some supp
(Mar 04-15:15) mike: mkt in a ''comfort zone'' - didn't wanna stay under 1311, or over 1317, very long. shorts on bounces better odd s
(Mar 04-15:19) mike: 14 area ''last trapped'' pivotal late here.
(Mar 04-15:21) mike: the move up started too early. any kind of bounce a short now , 17-18 area gift
(Mar 04-15:25) mike: avoid longs, any kind of bounce will fail.
(Mar 04-15:26) mike: shorts might cover bump this up, but it won' stick
(Mar 04-15:30) mike: trouble staying under 12.50
(Mar 04-15:33) mike: bottom of ''comfort zone''', 07-06 by monday morning if i'm right on this.
(Mar 04-15:35) mike: its 13.50-14.00 on top, key
(Mar 04-15:42) mike: 13.50 needs held now or close poorly.
(Mar 04-15:44) mike: have a great weekend. ''see'' ya monday morning
(Mar 04-15:54) mike: 21 small resist, 17.75 supp end of day.

 

 

Thursday- March 03, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 03-09:16) mike: 21.50-23.00 a key area , rejected once. 13.50-12.50 support needs held on a pullback
(Mar 03-09:17) mike: ISM Index at 10am
(Mar 03-09:37) mike: 19.50-19.00 area supp
(Mar 03-09:44) mike: 22 supp,
(Mar 03-09:47) mike: as long as 22.50 not broken, mkt stays in uptrends , a high in first 40 min likely
(Mar 03-09:50) mike: 23.50 must hold
(Mar 03-09:52) mike: need to stay over23.50 area here
(Mar 03-09:55) mike: a short under 25.50
(Mar 03-09:56) mike: 21.50 key supp. , 23.50 need broke/ held under 25.00 now
(Mar 03-09:58) mike: need break 23.50 n hold under , ism at 10am

(Mar 03-10:04) mike: 123 top, 25 resist now
(Mar 03-10:06) mike: 21.50 supp 1
(Mar 03-10:10) mike: 3 highs at 2364 area on nq. key , on a pop up here from 21.50 supp on ES
(Mar 03-10:17) mike: 23.50 minor supp needs held to keep going , or then 21.50 key supp. reversal if broken.
(Mar 03-10:20) mike: short under highs , bids dry up at highs
(Mar 03-10:22) mike: 25 shouldn't be cleared/ held. a break of 21.50-21.00 needed to push to 17 area
(Mar 03-10:28) mike: 21.50 reversed fast. a dip should hold, a new high should fail though , scalp mkt until this range breaks
(Mar 03-10:33) mike: drop bought, needs to get over 24 and not reverse. short under 24. area
(Mar 03-10:41) mike: a jittery market, 24 needs exceeded to squeeze shorts. 20.50 good supp on a dip
(Mar 03-10:42) mike: if they pull back to 22.500 area it should be a pop back up ,
(Mar 03-10:45) mike: held by 1 tick so far, need to get over 25 and hold soon
(Mar 03-10:47) mike: 27.50-28.00 area next , 2450 supp
(Mar 03-10:53) mike: 24.25 reversed , 24 need held now to keep this going
(Mar 03-10:59) mike: 24 reversed quickly, , toppy acting now, a bounce to lower high a short

(Mar 03-11:01) mike: 23.50 is key number , transition level. mkt bullish over, bearish if broken
(Mar 03-11:07) mike: lower high, dbl top, but a breakout and 27.50-18.50 would be next . 23.50 the key supp still
(Mar 03-11:10) mike: along with 1323.50, 2365-64 on NQ was a dbl top, that breakout area key supp to hold there
(Mar 03-11:14) mike: if 23.50 es, 2365 nq breaks, a bounce a short.
(Mar 03-11:22) mike: 27.50-28.50 if a push thru 26.50 can stick. , if not 24.50 key now , must hold on pullback
(Mar 03-11:29) mike: ES needs to hurry and take out 26.50, or a 4+ point drop coming
(Mar 03-11:32) mike: 12200 on Dow cash is major today. 2365 on NQ , 23.50 transition level on ES. they should push on higher, but need to go soon
(Mar 03-11:45) mike: only a dip as long as 24 area holds
(Mar 03-11:54) mike: 27.50-28.50 area good resist. but still trend up as long as 26.00-25.50 holds now

(Mar 03-12:06) mike: trend up day, so far. stunning. its off tho if 28 area not cleared, or 26.00-25.50 breaks and stops a stair step higher.
(Mar 03-12:13) mike: should bounce again. a test of high that stalls/ reverses is a scalp short.
(Mar 03-12:17) mike: stair step up, stay with until broken. if broken, then following bounce a short on stall. back in 30 min or so.
(Mar 03-12:22) mike: 1 more thing, 1 dip today it was 4.25 pts, a 4.25 pt drp from 28 is that 23.50 transition level so very key there

(Mar 03-13:02) mike: 28.00-27.50 need held on dip , 26 now key supp must hold
(Mar 03-13:13) mike: 29.50-30.00 is where the downside got going after the gap up reversal tuesday, should be resist up there
(Mar 03-13:15) mike: 2800-27.50 did hold, now key'
(Mar 03-13:20) mike: 27.50 needs held, 2371.50 nq
(Mar 03-13:27) mike: toppy nq
(Mar 03-13:28) mike: top in get short a pop
(Mar 03-13:30) mike: avoid longs until 24 area or lower
(Mar 03-13:36) mike: should fail 28
(Mar 03-13:38) mike: 2372 on nq resist
(Mar 03-13:50) mike: 29.50-30.25 was key before dropping hard early in the week. ,
(Mar 03-13:59) mike: trend up over soon. 2pm, or 220-240pm trend change ,

(Mar 03-14:09) mike: no damage done until 27 breaks. tiny dips bought. but can turn on a dime late this afternoon
(Mar 03-14:18) mike: 29.50-29.00 supp now,
(Mar 03-14:21) mike: 29.50-29.00 key now, trend up still
(Mar 03-14:25) mike: sell test of high if a stall / reversal
(Mar 03-14:38) mike: if no more than 2 pt dips, mkt stays strong
(Mar 03-14:40) mike: 29.50 should hold now, to go higher
(Mar 03-14:56) mike: nq rejected 75 , 72 key supp there

(Mar 03-15:09) mike: 30.50 supp must hold, 32 area big resist
(Mar 03-15:26) mike: 2 pt dip, 30 needs held
(Mar 03-15:38) mike: 29.00 transition level , key to break, nq a short on a bounce, its about done before a good pullback
(Mar 03-15:38) mike: employment data in morn. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- March 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 02-09:10) mike: 97.50 area is globex low area , 2305 area on nq. should hold, must hold , or things have changed , 1300.50 supp 1
(Mar 02-09:22) mike: fed beige book 2pm today. should go both ways
(Mar 02-09:24) mike: 04.50-05.00 r 1
(Mar 02-09:37) mike: 0550 rejected, 02.50 key to hold
(Mar 02-09:46) mike: a sell unless 09.50 cleared
(Mar 02-09:48) mike: 03 area now a key supp , key this morning
(Mar 02-09:54) mike: its ok this morn as long as 05.50 holds, if 03 breaks then 97.50 area.
(Mar 02-09:56) mike: 06.50 needs held

(Mar 02-10:00) mike: 06.50 held. its key now
(Mar 02-10:03) mike: 09.50 shouldnt be cleared/ held , 06.50 very key supp on dip now
(Mar 02-10:07) mike: sold, 10 stop
(Mar 02-10:08) mike: scalp out part 06.75 key supp to break
(Mar 02-10:18) mike: the 06 area needs broken if going to test lows, 09.50-10.00 key per last night update
(Mar 02-10:24) mike: dbl top at resist, 06 needs broken now to to damage

(Mar 02-11:17) mike: tried bounce off 10.75 . 12.50-13.00 resist now
(Mar 02-11:22) mike: 09.50 small supp, 12 resist now should be sold if reached
(Mar 02-11:32) mike: wedge break, bounce should fail under 11-12 resist now
(Mar 02-11:37) mike: 09.50-10.00 resist again in play
(Mar 02-11:38) mike: trend resist now
(Mar 02-11:40) mike: 06 from earlier is ''must hold'' ,
(Mar 02-11:47) mike: 1297.50 area still in the cards , need a break/ hold over 09.50 to get outta trouble
(Mar 02-11:59) mike: 06 trend resist now, follow 1 min per ebook

(Mar 02-12:01) mike: new low for es, if short multiple contracts, scale out part 02 area. or trail stops to 97.50 area
(Mar 02-12:09) mike: 06.50-07.50 good resist
(Mar 02-12:12) mike: 2326-26 on nq too... dow broke yest low, es just missed, nq well above yest low. a pullback needs to hold over 04 now. 2 sided day,
(Mar 02-12:21) mike: lunchtime chop, a pop tp 07.50-8.00 possible here
(Mar 02-12:32) mike: 17.50-08.00 met. 05.50 supp now
(Mar 02-12:40) mike: 09.50 resist again here, 06.50-05.75 trend supp, must hold, 2327-2326 on nq
(Mar 02-12:52) mike: back to the 09.50 spot.... 08 now trend up supp.

(Mar 02-13:13) mike: 06 next supp. a test of lows may be a buy, careful up here tho ,
(Mar 02-13:26) mike: nq disconect , and as a member pointed out, es doing exact opposite of oil today. no oil in naz , this divergence
(Mar 02-13:38) mike: 25 min till beige book, 06 has been holding but 04 in cards on a break
(Mar 02-13:39) mike: 1305.25 supp/ target
(Mar 02-13:44) mike: 05.25 hit, 08.00 resist now key if bounce
(Mar 02-13:53) mike: 07.50 small resist
(Mar 02-13:55) mike: 07.50 rejected, 2328 is nq resist, no oil in tht index, an easier read , 2320 key to hold/ reverse on that
(Mar 02-13:56) mike: release in 4 min.

(Mar 02-14:03) mike: sell under 07.50, 2326 nq
(Mar 02-14:09) mike: its ok here over 06.50-06.00 area
(Mar 02-14:21) mike: 07 looks pivotal, pop that stalls near 10.50 should fail , test of 04 needs reversed if 07 breaks
(Mar 02-14:32) mike: 06 has to hold, if 06 can hold, 12 area possible on breakout.
(Mar 02-14:34) mike: held, if 06 broken, a bounce after should fail
(Mar 02-14:38) mike: needs to keep over 08.50 to keep going, not dbl top
(Mar 02-14:39) mike: 12 possible if bid dont dry up, 10.50 need cleared seen'
(Mar 02-14:40) mike: 08.50 held, key now
(Mar 02-14:50) mike: 12 missed by 1 tick. 09 needs held or toped for now
(Mar 02-14:57) mike: 06 should be tested if 09 breaks here soon

(Mar 02-15:04) mike: 09.75 held. trends up over that , nq key up here
(Mar 02-15:10) mike: a pullback stays over 1310 now, or its more than a dip
(Mar 02-15:14) mike: small shorts up here
(Mar 02-15:15) mike: 12.50 resist rejected, that needs cleared to avoid another back dn, 2 sided day
(Mar 02-15:16) mike: 08.50 area supp on break of 1310
(Mar 02-15:20) mike: if mkt strong, it has to hold 09.50 area here , 2333 on nq
(Mar 02-15:25) mike: 09.50 key end of day, then 06 area , 12.50 top
(Mar 02-15:30) mike: not a good end if 08.50 goes, avoid longs here
(Mar 02-15:35) mike: 08.50 held so far, but upside limited and a short 10.50 or so
(Mar 02-15:44) mike: 1309.50-1310.00 zone end of day resist
(Mar 02-15:44) mike: have a good day
 

 

Tuesday- March 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 01-09:18) mike: ISM index at 10am. the 29 level should be tested to fill gap , 2 sided day likely
(Mar 01-09:29) mike: Bernanke speaking this morning too
(Mar 01-09:41) mike: gap filled, 26 area next , 30 resist
(Mar 01-09:47) mike: 26 area met, must hold
(Mar 01-09:53) mike: 29 needs cleared/ held
(Mar 01-09:57) mike: 24.00, then 22.25 key, ISM 3 min

(Mar 01-10:02) mike: 24 a transition area, key. 29-30 resist now
(Mar 01-10:06) mike: 29 shouldnt be exceeded/ held
(Mar 01-10:10) mike: 22.25 , dow 12200 must hold. or bad day going, 28 is good resist
(Mar 01-10:13) mike: 24.50 resis
(Mar 01-10:19) mike: gap day, trend day so far, 19.00 next, 24 area key resist
(Mar 01-10:28) mike: lost momentum at key supp, but 23 needs cleared/ held to change
(Mar 01-10:35) mike: 17 area key, 20 resist, 22.50-24.00 zone resist
(Mar 01-10:38) mike: 20 reversed, trend resist, this should not come roaring back to the high today, a decent pop up will be sold
(Mar 01-10:51) mike: 20.25 key supp now, 22.50 old supp is resist , 12200 dow cash
(Mar 01-10:59) mike: futures have an outside day already, a test of 21.00-20.50 is key on dip now. ,

(Mar 01-11:06) mike: 22 needs held to avoid rolling over
(Mar 01-11:15) mike: mid range resistance, 22 needs to be reversed up fast
(Mar 01-11:21) mike: 22.25 reversed. must hold there now
(Mar 01-11:24) mike: a pop up a short now
(Mar 01-11:24) mike: 24.50 good resist , 2349 nq
(Mar 01-11:28) mike: 22.50 now resist
(Mar 01-11:37) mike: good moves , bounces won't stick, a run up to 22 area that stalls is a short if if this is to continue
(Mar 01-11:41) mike: if 18.00-17.50 breaks and no reversal, 1312 then 1310 , are next and key supports.
(Mar 01-11:47) mike: 20.50 resist now
(Mar 01-11:50) mike: 1312 or 1310 next
(Mar 01-11:52) mike: tick extreme breather, , 19 area resist
(Mar 01-11:58) mike: 18.50-19.00 resist now, 12.50-10.00 key supp on this leg dn

(Mar 01-12:02) mike: cover part shorts in here
(Mar 01-12:04) mike: 18.50-19.00 good resist
(Mar 01-12:15) mike: stay w/ shorts , the bounces are not going to hold today
(Mar 01-12:17) mike: in and out awhile, back around 1pm , audio then . 12.50-10.00 very key to hold
(Mar 01-12:31) mike: 12.50 reversed, 16.50 trend resist now
(Mar 01-12:48) mike: a pullback holds 15, a pop towards 20 area possible
(Mar 01-12:51) mike: 15.00-14.50 key supp
(Mar 01-12:54) mike: bad pattern, next pop a short
(Mar 01-12:56) mike: hmm, 15.00 held but must push thru 17

(Mar 01-13:01) mike: be short a bounce. if 12 breaks it gets ugly
(Mar 01-13:09) mike: tricky, if 12 area held a decent bounce still possible. , not a strong mkt tho, better short on a bounce, if they can
(Mar 01-13:19) mike: still vulnerable unless 16 area cleared/ held on a dip. audio in about 5 min.
(Mar 01-13:27) mike: a bounce fails under 15.50-16.50 , audio a bit now

(Mar 01-14:00) mike: 1313.50 key. a test of 08..50 a scalp long if reversed quickly
(Mar 01-14:04) mike: just sell under 13.50 area
(Mar 01-14:06) mike: 03-02 area next
(Mar 01-14:06) mike: 08.50, then 02 area
(Mar 01-14:09) mike: 08.50 reached, but 11.50-12.50 resist key
(Mar 01-14:21) mike: 11 .00 resist now, 08 area kry, then 03-02 if broken / held
(Mar 01-14:34) mike: 08.50-09.00 rezist now
(Mar 01-14:35) mike: should see 03-02 area or go until 4pm close for stocks if 09 not cleared/ held
(Mar 01-14:42) mike: 2:40pm low, 1308.50-09.00 trend resist , symmetry. key now
(Mar 01-14:54) mike: 08.00-07.50 supp now, 11.50-12.50 key resist , 07.50 needs held now

(Mar 01-15:06) mike: 09.50-10.00 resist, a short , 12100 on dow cash , need a close over 1312 or more ugly
(Mar 01-15:11) mike: 20 ema on 5 min day session trend resist all day, 09 now
(Mar 01-15:13) mike: the new lows have been bought, but not held long, 03-02 still possible
(Mar 01-15:21) mike: should fail here, but a test of lows a scalp long now on reversal

(Mar 01-15:35) mike: if 07 holds, the 10.50-1200 area could be tested
(Mar 01-15:37) mike: look out if 09.50 not exceeded,
(Mar 01-15:39) mike: mkt vulnerable unless 12100 on dow cash, 1310 es cleared on close
(Mar 01-15:41) mike: 07 and 09 are range break levels -- day done here
(Mar 01-15:47) mike: 4pm low
(Mar 01-15:47) mike: see ya tomorrow
(Mar 01-15:54) mike: bell to bell selling, not good. see ya tomorrow morning


Monday- February 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Feb 28-09:17) mike: 1323.00-1322.50, then 1320.00 / more econ data in first hour too
(Feb 28-09:42) mike: 27.50-28.25 good resist, 2364.50-2365 nq. / 24.50 good supp
(Feb 28-09:51) mike: 27.50-28.25 was sold, key now

(Feb 28-10:03) mike: 25 area held well, that is pivotal on dip,
(Feb 28-10:09) mike: dbl top at resist , need 25 to break
(Feb 28-10:26) mike: as long as 25 holds, mkt avoids trouble today. quick scalp shorts on higher high that stalls, but no trouble unless 25 broken. 27.50 small supp here need hold
(Feb 28-10:28) mike: 29 was key supp before breaking dn to 92.50 last week.
(Feb 28-10:31) mike: if 27 breaks, a pop up after is a selll. 27 pivotal here
(Feb 28-10:39) mike: short under these highs, nq weaker
(Feb 28-10:45) mike: bearish pattern , 28.50 shouldnt be cleared/ held , nq has resist at 2360 now
(Feb 28-10:56) mike: 27.50 resist , the 25 area is key supp, needs held or top can be in

(Feb 28-11:12) mike: 1325 on and 12200 on Dow cash area the key supp areas on a move lower. if cant stay over 27, they head that way .
(Feb 28-11:18) mike: bearish pattern stll, short under 28 area
(Feb 28-11:31) mike: nq much weaker and leading this lower, 26 area resist if a bounce
(Feb 28-11:45) mike: 2352-53 on nq resist now
(Feb 28-11:57) mike: should not break 26 if going lower

(Feb 28-12:10) mike: hugging 12200 on dow. looks key here, 26 needs exceeded / held tho. shorts from 27.50-28.0 area covered
(Feb 28-12:16) mike: it appears lots of shorts are being covered, given gap up open, a drop to 1320 , should that occur today/ tomorrow would be the bull/ bear line in the sand so to speak
(Feb 28-12:17) mike: 2353 resist still on nq, 25.50-26.00 on es... they need cleared soon
(Feb 28-12:35) mike: 25 should hold here, scalp long on dip
(Feb 28-12:39) mike: this is slow motion, 26 needs cleared
(Feb 28-12:40) mike: to show some strength , 24.50 key to hold on dip
(Feb 28-12:46) mike: nq still needs to push over 2353 ... dow is holding this up.
(Feb 28-12:49) mike: nq new low, better short than es
(Feb 28-12:55) mike: 22.75-22.50 , if not reversed then 20.00-19.50 area key to hold
(Feb 28-12:59) mike: 22.50 or better to cover a part of shorts, 23.50-24.50 zone resist now

(Feb 28-13:01) mike: 2346 area on nq resist there
(Feb 28-13:05) mike: 20.00-19.50 zone needs reversed fast on a test. a feeble bounce of 1.50-200 pts on es then should fail if going lower
(Feb 28-13:12) mike: 22.50-23.25 area should be sold or a low in for now
(Feb 28-13:18) mike: 22.50 sold, it key now, 2344-5 nq
(Feb 28-13:24) mike: should be some buyers / support around 20 level, but no interest in longs the way this acts.
(Feb 28-13:25) mike: 22.50 es, 2344 on nq need cleared/ held on a dip to change this
(Feb 28-13:32) mike: that might be it, 19.50 area good/ key supp , otherwise 17 key area
(Feb 28-13:37) mike: need more than a feeble 2.00 pt bounce, 22.50, 2244 nq both need cleared/ held to get a a break of downside momentum
(Feb 28-13:47) mike: no omph on bounces, they're feeble, no break hold over 22.50 so careful buying this
(Feb 28-13:58) mike: if 20 breaks then 1 more push dn. still need move over 22.50 and 2344 to try to turn around

(Feb 28-14:01) mike: 17.50-17.00 the key arwea below
(Feb 28-14:13) mike: the crowd is condition to the ''they always rally back'' , if es not over 1322.50 and held on this, we could see the mkt drop to that 17 area.
(Feb 28-14:18) mike: resist met, a 1.00 pt dip needs held
(Feb 28-14:31) mike: 21.50 is key supp on pullback. low in it looks
(Feb 28-14:35) mike: 23.75 was break dn level earlier, this dip needs to hold 21.50 at the lowest
(Feb 28-14:43) mike: stuck at 23.50 old low area, 12200 dow cash. 21.50 looking key / pivotal
(Feb 28-14:57) mike: mid range, and a mixed mkt here too. es looks ok holding 22 area. but probablt not much upside

(Feb 28-15:08) mike: a pop should be sold , , 22.00 is a ''must hold or reverse'
(Feb 28-15:18) mike: 22.50-22.25 need held here end of day . 26.00 should be good resist if they try to run up . a pass buying up here the way this acts lately
(Feb 28-15:32) mike: watch 26 for a pullback. 22.25 is pivotal. 24.00 sould hold
(Feb 28-15:47) mike: 26 reached and sold. if re tested, a good odds short. 24.00 pivotal late here
(Feb 28-15:48) mike: nq still a bettershort. 2350052 sell zone.. have a great rest of the day. audio tomorrow

 

 

Friday- February 25, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 08.50-08.00 supp, mich sentiment at 9;55am.
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: i will be in and out this morn. not as many update till after noon
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: days in a row trin close over 1.00. normally bullish. oversold , 08 area needs held, 04 at lowest. good luck
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 1317-18 good resist , 2344 nq. a dip needs to hold 13.50 area ,
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: a dip from resist, but 15.50 , 2340 need broken soon, or trends still up
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: should be a top, if 13.50 not held

(Feb 25-15:51) mike: The market gapped up on the open and kept going , reaching 1317.75-1318.50 resistance on ES and 2344 resistance on NQ. But, as long as 1313.50 holds on a dip, another bounce can occur. The market is very oversold so a collapse isn't likely.

(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 17.75 is 50% retrace from 1343.00 to1292.50 , and former pivotal area , needs cleared
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: a short under 16.75 now
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: no damage done, 15 needs broken then held on bounce.
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 1314.75 is stair step higher supp, ES is trend up unless broken.
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 17.50-18.50 old transition area, a morning high possible. . the 1314.75 must hold/ reverse on dip or mkt weakening. .
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: mkt was very oversold, the bounce is over for now,
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: mkt has acted well , but the rejection of 1318 area a negative. not getting caught buying a top,
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 17-18 area a short w/ pretty tight stop
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 16 area resist

(Feb 25-15:51) mike: The Stall and reversal from the 1317.75-1318.50 resistance started this pullback, and a drop must hold 1312.50-1312.00 area or else the 1308 area will be next.

(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 12.50 reached easily, 14 area resist now
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 14.75-15.25 shouldn't be exceeded/ held, if going to break 12 area
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: needs to hold 14.75
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: small wedge but mkt ok as long as 1312 holds. back around 12:30 or so, audio update then
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: wedge again, need to stay over 15.50
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: this dip will be bought , 15.50 should/must hold
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 21-22 in cards, dont fade this
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 17.00-16.50 supp, needs held on dip , 21-23 area would be next, key area up there.
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 17.50 now supp. 21-23 zone key . audio in about 5 min.
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 17.50 needs held. , a test of 19.50 tht fails is a scalp short
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: browser crashed before , audio now
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: if 17.50 not defended, a break dn occurs,
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: next pop up a sell

(Feb 25-15:51) mike: After the last update the ES bounced off of 1312.25 to a token higher high at 1319.75 and that looks like a top/ sell area for the oversold bounce. A break/ hold of 1317 turns the tide.

(Feb 25-15:51) mike: would be a good quick turn up lead by nq if still strong
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: i guess its still strong. buy a dip that stalls/ reverses near 17
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 21.50-23.25 resist ,18.50 needs held
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 18.50 holds, tepid buyers up here, 22 should be sold if reached
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: short nq on bounce, 2350 not to be cleared
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: should bounce from 17.50 , or else go towards 15-14 at least end of day
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: a bounce from 17.75, but sell 19-20 area may be better odds up here
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 19 rejected again, es stuck, but as long as 17.50 is held, no damage done. on top nothing good happens tho unless 20 area not rejected/ then 22 possible before drop .
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 17.50 es, 12130 on Dow cash both need held to end on a good note. a dip should hold
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: long week, tired. this chop can go either way , a drop under 17 that's not reversed fast not good have a great weekend.

 

 

 

Thursday- February 24, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 24-09:22) mike: 07.50-08.50 resist, 04.00 supp, the 1297 area should hold
(Feb 24-09:23) mike: next update around 10:30 this morn
(Feb 24-09:50) mike: 05.50 pivotal
(Feb 24-10:07) mike: range bound, resist 08. area

(Feb 24-10:17) mike: The lower open was bought and after pulling back from 1308.25 to 1304.25 the 1308 was tested and rejected. This needs to stay over 1304 to avoid a turn down. That is reversal area if not defended.

(Feb 24-10:19) mike: mkt has a good bid so far. 08 area is supp now
(Feb 24-10:27) mike: this pattern is not good. should be sellers on test of 09 if not toped
(Feb 24-10:33) mike: topped, could bounce but won't stick
(Feb 24-10:36) mike: 07 resist now , key here
(Feb 24-10:43) mike: 04 needs broken soon or range intact
(Feb 24-10:47) mike: 05.50-06.00 resist now, nq leading this again
(Feb 24-10:57) mike: 07.00 is middle of this range, key now
(Feb 24-11:00) mike: mkt is a short under 07 , 2310 on nq
(Feb 24-11:05) mike: mkt cant hold on bounces, nq poor action, 07 turned away... 04.00-03.50 need broken / held
(Feb 24-11:14) mike: finally, 1300.50 supp , small

(Feb 24-11:18) mike: After the last update the ES topped at 1310 and rolled over. The 1307 area is now resistance that shouldn't be cleared/ held, and 1300.50 must hold or the 1297.50 area would be next,

(Feb 24-11:25) mike: 03 needs held here , 05.00 resist if held
(Feb 24-11:39) mike: 07.0 still key, 03.00-02.50 area on bottom side needs reversed or 97 area again
(Feb 24-11:47) mike: could bounce off 1300.50, but only to be sold
(Feb 24-11:48) mike: 03.50 now resist, a short there .
(Feb 24-12:05) mike: 03 was stall, just under 03.50, hey now 1300 cover area on part
(Feb 24-12:06) mike: stair step lower, so 03 the trend resist
(Feb 24-12:08) mike: 96.75 is key below, 93-92 area if broken/ held

(Feb 24-12:14) mike: dbl bottom possible, but so far doesn't act like mkt did yesterday, , need to get running up, take out 03.00, and keep grinding higher... 3 pt bounces failing, 01 area small resist here

(Feb 24-12:17) mike: a 3rd test of 98-97 must hold. should be another reversal up if tht happens. lunchtime bounce is all this is right now
(Feb 24-12:18) mike: back in 30-40 min, audio possibly then
(Feb 24-12:29) mike: ugly acting, 98 must be defended, or 93 area possible yet
(Feb 24-12:32) mike: trouble under 1300
(Feb 24-12:42) mike: bounces have been 3-4 pts, then roll over. 1302 needs cleared/ held
(Feb 24-12:53) mike: covered most of short position dn here. , 02 good resist on a bounce
(Feb 24-12:56) mike: whew. 00.50-01.50 resist, tick extreme off low
(Feb 24-13:00) mike: big cluster of supp at 98.00-96.75 , a good demand there so far, not out of trouble tho, 02-03 area key now
(Feb 24-13:06) mike: a hold over 1300 keep trend up , a pullback 02-03 likely
(Feb 24-13:07) mike: a break/ hold over 02-03 zone needed to avoid more dn side

(Feb 24-13:18) mike: at yesterday close there was 2 vix buy sigs, and a trin buy sig. so far, bears have been in charger tho. now though, as long as the 99.50 is held the bulls have the ball, should get going n hold over 1302 if in gear

(Feb 24-13:20) mike: a failure to push thru 1302 means mkt weak, if sigs don't work then things are changed

(Feb 24-13:25) mike: After the last update the ES topped at 1310 and rolled over. The 1307 area is now resistance that shouldn't be cleared/ held, and 1300.50 must hold or the 1297.50 area would be next,

After the last update the ES popped to 1307 then reversed and fell to 1297.50 support again. Market is still vulnerable unless 1302-1303 is cleared, 1293-1293 possible.

(Feb 24-13:27) mike: 99.50 resist now , should be sold
(Feb 24-13:32) mike: 99.50 sold, 96.75 needs held or splat
(Feb 24-13:33) mike: 98.00 supp
(Feb 24-13:34) mike: scalp , 02-03 still key above
(Feb 24-13:46) mike: 99.50 a rock, still can see 93-92 area , 97.50-98.00 resist
(Feb 24-13:58) mike: 1292.50-1291.50 reached. still, unless 1296 cleared, another 3-4 pt bounce failure.
(Feb 24-14:03) mike: a re test should/ must hold. 96.50 area looking key now
(Feb 24-14:07) mike: its 97.50 thats key here, old supp, 94.50 small supp. i think the ''easy'' part for today is over.

(Feb 24-14:14) mike: After the last update the ES popped to 1302 resistance, then reversed and fell to 1292.50-1291.50 support. A test should hold, and the market gets legs if 1302.00-1302.50 area is not rejected.

(Feb 24-14:18) mike: 98-97 should hold if a low in, late day 02 still important resist to clear/ hold there
(Feb 24-14:29) mike: 99 will hold on a dip now if low in. 90 min left, another drop likely
(Feb 24-14:40) mike: 06.50 would equal yest rally. 02 is trend supp now
(Feb 24-14:49) mike: 1300.50 must hold or a spill into close, the 1304.50 has been pivotal up here on top, key to clear / and hold there
(Feb 24-15:00) mike: 00.50 held, so far, that still key
(Feb 24-15:02) mike: 04.50 on top
(Feb 24-15:09) mike: a buy over 00.50. pivotal now
(Feb 24-15:17) mike: 07.00 rejected earlier... careful chasing
(Feb 24-15:20) mike: 2.25 pt dips on way up, symmetry needs held. have a good rest of your day
(Feb 24-15:32) mike: 06.50 supp now
(Feb 24-15:40) mike: 123 top
(Feb 24-15:45) mike: 04.50 supp end of day, a close below is bearish

 

 

Wednesday- February 23, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 23-09:16) mike: bounces a short , especially if they get to 18-20 range and stall out
(Feb 23-09:41) mike: 14.50 must hold
(Feb 23-09:48) mike: morn high in, housing data 10am
(Feb 23-09:54) mike: 10.25 needs broken , 08.50 then
(Feb 23-09:59) mike: 10.25 held so far, key to break/ hold under
(Feb 23-10:01) mike: if they cant get thru 1312, weak
(Feb 23-10:03) mike: that 's12.50, and hold
(Feb 23-10:06) mike: 10.25 held, 12.50 rejected , not held. key now.
(Feb 23-10:11) mike: 1308.50-1307.50 met. 1302 next. 1311 resist now
(Feb 23-10:14) mike: 10.50-11.00 trend resist now ,
(Feb 23-10:29) mike: 1the 1307.75 low in first 40 minutes. that must be defended . a pullback to 11.50 supp now

(Feb 23-10:29) mike: The lower open was bought and the ES popped to 1316.50 then reversed. The drop to the 1308.50-1307.50 was quickly reversed. The bounce isn't very strong so a hold over 1311 area is needed to avoid another drop.

(Feb 23-10:31) mike: 12.00 supp now
(Feb 23-12:00) mike: 2300.50-2298.75 zone on nq , 100+ pt drop. 2292 on that next if broken here

(Feb 23-12:05) mike: After the last update the ES double bottomed at 1308 but failed at 1314 and rolled over hard again. Stay with shorts to 1302, or 1298 area possibly, as it takes a break/ hold back over 1308.50 to dent this downside momentum.

(Feb 23-12:21) mike: worked dn to 1300 easily..
(Feb 23-12:23) mike: 1307.50-1308.50 now is the key resist if there is a decent bounce. shouldn't really get that far if the trend dn is to continue , 05 should be some resist
(Feb 23-12:25) mike: 1300 and 12100 on dow cash now key supp. they bottom around this time often, but see if upside can stick.
(Feb 23-12:35) mike: mkt caught a good bid for first time in 2 days , but bust clear 05 soon, or retest of low likely
(Feb 23-12:36) mike: back near 1pm .
(Feb 23-12:46) mike: 05 sold, still trend dn action. a 123 bottom possible
(Feb 23-12:54) mike: 1298-97 coming if dow keeps dropping
(Feb 23-13:07) mike: key here. low may be in, but lots of resist above. if 15 exceeded, then things might change but not until
(Feb 23-13:11) mike: 98-97 still possible. if 05 not cleared audio for a bit

(Feb 23-13:36) mike: audio off for now. a lot more info given then, especially as it happened at 98-87 zone. see the instructions on this page re audio updates. i will not be doing audio and typing both . that said, a move over 1304 changes trend dn action

(Feb 23-13:40) mike: 1305.00 is symmetry and last key high, key resist there now. , 01.75 needs held
(Feb 23-13:48) mike: 12100 on dow cash needs cleared too here, with 1304-05 or still vulnerable
(Feb 23-14:00) mike: 1303.00-02.50 area key on a dip now
(Feb 23-14:03) mike: 04.00 good supp now, to keep uptrend intact
(Feb 23-14:06) mike: some resist at 1306.50-1307.50 here
(Feb 23-14:08) mike: 04.00 should hold if mkt has put in a low , if broken, then 1300 area should hold , must hold
(Feb 23-14:17) mike: another wedge pattern. 04.00 area holding, a lower high that reverse near 06 still a short
(Feb 23-14:21) mike: no stall or rversal. as long as 1304 holds, mkt is turned around
(Feb 23-14:27) mike: 1306.00-05.50 needs held or next pop up fails
(Feb 23-14:33) mike: 05.50 held. bulls in charge again as long as that is defended. for now
(Feb 23-14:42) mike: this pattern is normally not good, that 05.50 area key to hold or back dn they go
(Feb 23-14:46) mike: 07.00-07.50 should be sold if tested ,

(Feb 23-14:53) mike: After the last update the ES the ES bounced from 1300.25 to 1305.00 new resistance and turned back down and dropped to the 1297.50 level. A good rebound occurred, but 1308 old resistance was rejected and that is now key resistance this afternoon. A drop to test the 1302 area should bring out the buyers, or its bad news for the close.

(Feb 23-14:58) mike: TRICKY, but the 12100 area on Dow cash, and 1304 on ES, are transition areas. as long as held, mkt avoids trouble. so caution on shorting
(Feb 23-15:09) mike: should have hard time going further here
(Feb 23-15:09) mike: 1308 needs held now
(Feb 23-15:14) mike: 08.25 held, for now. must hold
(Feb 23-15:22) mike: 1313 could be seen.
(Feb 23-15:23) mike: 10.00-09.50 supp should hold to get there
(Feb 23-15:33) mike: short a pop up, fake out move, that should be strong resist , 1311.50-12.50, 2313 nq
(Feb 23-15:39) mike: 07 needs defended, or they get hit to 04 area , wedge would break
(Feb 23-15:41) mike: watch for selling near 1310
(Feb 23-15:46) mike: bounce high in place, good supply up there
(Feb 23-15:47) mike: wedge break, bounces not held, 1304 key end of day. have a good rest of the day,
(Feb 23-15:56) mike: 08.50-09.50 resist overnight should be sold.
(Feb 23-15:57) mike: and 1304 area as supp, that area must hold

 

 

Tuesday- February 22, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 22-09:11) mike: Consumer Confidence at 10am should be key. have flu symptoms this morn , updates later
(Feb 22-09:31) mike: cover 1/2 puts
(Feb 22-09:54) mike: 28 supp now , key . number in 5 min
(Feb 22-10:03) mike: 32 good resist
(Feb 22-10:12) mike: 29 key this morning now, 32-33 area resist here, then 37.50-38.50
(Feb 22-10:21) mike: 32 supp, trend reverses if broken. tht was a short covering run up, if 32 holds. a push to 38 area max upside
(Feb 22-10:24) mike: sell this pop, 35 shouldnt be cleared
(Feb 22-10:26) mike: 30-29 test would need quickly reversed p, ot a high in
(Feb 22-10:32) mike: cover 30-29 area , part, tighten stop 32.50 resist now


(Feb 22-10:37) mike: The ES opened down over 15 points and bounced from just over the 1322.25-1321.50 zone and ran up to 1334.50 so far. A break/ hold of 1329 turns this lower. If they pop up 1 more time, 1337.50-1338.50 would be strong resistance.

(Feb 22-10:53) mike: small rising wedge. 31.50 needs held ,
(Feb 22-11:02) mike: 28.50 test likely on this. not a buy, short under 33.50 area
(Feb 22-11:10) mike: 28.50 reached... 31 area resist, 2362 on nq
(Feb 22-11:12) mike: 27.00 is key, if not held then 22.50-21.50 could be seen
(Feb 22-11:20) mike: 27 holding, but nq weak , needs turned here. 30.50-31.00 resist now
(Feb 22-11:30) mike: After the last update the ES pulled back to 1329.75, but failed to make a higher high and rolled over to 1325.50 so far. Bounces should have trouble holding, 1329.50-1330.50 now resistance, and the same with pullbacks as long as test of 1322.50-1321.50 is held and reversed.

(Feb 22-11:44) mike: vulnerable unless 28 cleared/ held on a dip
(Feb 22-11:48) mike: 25.50-26.00 resist now/ needs cleared/ held to dbl bottom , 2354 on nq
(Feb 22-12:06) mike: 1322.25-1321.50 held so far, but 24.50-25.25 now trend to clear
(Feb 22-12:18) mike: 23.50 now trend resist. 1320.00 overnight low, then its 1318.50-1317.50is short term major supp. 27.50 key on a decent bounce, a close under 1336, per last night, a first sign of a real top in place.
(Feb 22-12:26) mike: a dbl bottom on dow cash, but, 23.50 rejected so no go on upside yet
(Feb 22-12:36) mike: this should be more than another 1 day ''dip'' and bull runs on up... action much different
(Feb 22-12:41) mike: 18.50-17.50 on this likely if hold under 22.50 area here
(Feb 22-12:41) mike: nq staying in weak leadership mode


(Feb 22-12:46) mike: 18.25 low so far, 21.00-21.50 resist now. if 17.50 breaks, then 1313-1312


(Feb 22-12:50) mike: After the last update the ES failed to clear 1327.50 and stayed trend down to the 1318.50-1317.50 support. A gold under 1321,50 means 1308 could be seen again. That's major, must hold or mini melt down in gear.

(Feb 22-12:55) mike: counter trend bounces are 2.50 - 3.50 pts on ES, THAT 19.50 AREA RESIST NOW .
(Feb 22-13:03) mike: 18 area now trend resist
(Feb 22-13:06) mike: 1pm bounce, those lows should hold now , or this gets a bit ugly. a break/ hold over 18 to break momentum
(Feb 22-13:20) mike: a 3.25 point bounce, similar to bounce off 1321 .00 an hour ago. 18 needs cleared/ held. not reversed
(Feb 22-13:27) mike: 16.50 area trend resist now. 12.50 should be supp, or 1308 gets hit
(Feb 22-13:31) mike: 3.25 pt bounce is 16.50 , last break dn area, trend dn resist
(Feb 22-13:36) mike: slinky tops on bounces most of the way down. to keep pushing lower, 12200 on dow cash needs broken next, and 1312.50. otherwise, a move over 16.50 takes some pressure off
(Feb 22-13:46) mike: another 3 point failure, avoid longs things changed
(Feb 22-13:48) mike: 12.50, then 1308 are the key areas. bear action even on early bounce
(Feb 22-13:52) mike: 12200 on dow, 1312.50 probed, at least lock in profits on shorts
(Feb 22-13:53) mike: blow out on vix. this will give a good rebound when it reverses
(Feb 22-13:55) mike: VIXY chart shows the emotional shift
(Feb 22-13:59) mike: 16.00 the 3.25 pt bounce / trend resist
(Feb 22-14:06) mike: same pattern , 16 needs cleared/ held now
(Feb 22-14:10) mike: 12.50 area on ES, 12200 on dow cash 3 tests, if a break, then 1308 area next/ 16 key on top


(Feb 22-14:17) mike: The ES tested 1312.50 3 times as did 12200 on the Dow cash. If broken, then 1308 area is next. A break/ hold over 1316.50 on ES and 2330 on NQ is needed to take some pressure off today.

(Feb 22-14:30) mike: a dip needs to hold 14.75 or this is a fake out on upside
(Feb 22-14:39) mike: 17.50-18.00 first big hurdle
(Feb 22-14:44) mike: 14.75 needs broken to put press back on , but still a better sell on bounce that stalls out near 17-18
(Feb 22-14:52) mike: should see a turn back dn from this area ,
(Feb 22-14:54) mike: down to 15 area, that must hold or mkt drifts lower into close
(Feb 22-14:57) mike: 15.50-14.75 needs held now here to avoid a spill into the close
(Feb 22-15:04) mike: 17-18 zone resist, 1312.50 Still key supp below/ it should break before a good bounce can happen
(Feb 22-15:11) mike: 08.50 still possible , 14.50-15.00 small resist
(Feb 22-15:20) mike: 14.25 rejected. stay w/ shorts under tht . to 08.50
(Feb 22-15:35) mike: 12.50 needs broken/ held to avoid 1308.50
(Feb 22-15:39) mike: 12.75 was it. it stays ugly unless that is cleared
(Feb 22-15:42) mike: nq should lead into close. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Friday- February 18, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 18-09:15) mike: holiday monday. as long as the 37 area holds, mkt still ok.resist at 1340 and 2400 on nq need broken/ held to keep pushing higher n not reverse
(Feb 18-09:23) mike: very sore this morn, not sure about trading... there should be a good bid on first pullback up here
(Feb 18-09:24) mike: option expiry day too.
(Feb 18-09:39) mike: 37 must hold or things change ,
(Feb 18-09:45) mike: buyers pulling bids till decent dip to run um up
(Feb 18-09:51) mike: 37 held, nq has good bid below. those lows now MUST hold
(Feb 18-09:57) mike: bounce off 37... if 2393 on nq breaks, 1336 on es, then they change and top more likely.
(Feb 18-10:04) mike: dow cash turn dn. 38 needs held
(Feb 18-10:10) mike: nq on bounce to 97-98 area, strong resist sell up there
(Feb 18-10:14) mike: thing are changing, good offer on nq at least
(Feb 18-10:22) mike: ES does nothing wrong unless 37 breaks... nq not so good, its Dow leading on upside
(Feb 18-10:30) mike: mkt not wanting to break , as long as 37 holds , no damage done tho upside limited it looks

(Feb 18-10:34) mike: Early strength was sold, but 1337 held and keeps market out of trouble. As long as that holds, no damage done. It's option expiration, the NQ needs to get over 2398 to get it going higher, or reverse again.

(Feb 18-10:42) mike: a dip will be bought. 38.50 supp now
(Feb 18-10:50) mike: if 39.50-39.00 holds, they stay in buy dips mode , if broken then minor trend break
(Feb 18-11:02) mike: the nq refused to push thru 2397... thats key , so is 40 area on ES , nq is a short on bounce under 97 area, tgh stop
(Feb 18-11:08) mike: a test of 37 would need to reverse right back up. a reversal at 40 again could top this off
(Feb 18-11:11) mike: amazingly strong still. if 38.50 tested, / held its a dip to run em up again
(Feb 18-11:21) mike: 39.50 should hold now
(Feb 18-11:24) mike: 40.00-39.50 good supp on dip, 2394 on NQ . will hold if going higher
(Feb 18-11:32) mike: mania continues. stay w/ buying dips, 40.00-39.50 supp, then 38.50 key to defend
(Feb 18-11:42) mike: small resist at 42.50, then its 45.50-46.50 area. if 40.50 not held it can be a high
(Feb 18-11:53) mike: holding 40.50 by a tick, mkt a but tired, a test of 42 that reverses is a 123 top =possibility= up here.
(Feb 18-11:55) mike: i'll do audio after the lunch time action. careful long up here
(Feb 18-12:15) mike: if 41.75 breaks, a reversal can occur , but not drop far. unless 40.25 broken

(Feb 18-12:20) mike: After the last update the ES stayed trend up and got a boost once the NQ made a little double bottom and 1342.50 was reached. That is small resistance, then 1345.50-1346.60, but a dip needs to stay over 1340.25 to keep the melt-up in gear.

(Feb 18-12:26) mike: audio at 1pm. its trend up unless 40.75 breaks
(Feb 18-12:40) mike: 41.25 needs held n bid right back up. a bounce on nq a sell near 2400-ish on stall
(Feb 18-12:54) mike: 41.25 reversed. thats key to stay over now, if not defended, then 39.50-38.50 is good supp that should hold. all dips, even up here, still well bid for now
(Feb 18-13:01) mike: its always tricky trading at a new high, but will do audio for a bit, see if a good set up occurs. if long, look for exits not new entries up here

(Feb 18-13:34) mike: sell a bounce on nq/ es, a high in, those will not be held if reached
(Feb 18-13:49) mike: the mkt didn't like it up at 42 area, 2400 on nq. only a retrace likely, a bounce a short if not short already
(Feb 18-13:49) mike: 39.25 trend resist, 40.50 key resist

(Feb 18-14:02) mike: 40.50 rejected, but 1338-1337 area now major , if broken then held on a dip to change things. these all come rallying back, so if 38-37 is reached/ held then buy for a rebound. a trading range on option expiration, w/ a goofy end of day move likely

(Feb 18-14:11) mike: After the last update the ES backed off from 1342.75 and bounced to a lower high, then a break of 1341 started a drop to 1338.00. The 1338-1337 area needs to be defended to avoid a break down. The NQ has been leading and it needs to get over 2393 then 2400 major area to avoid rolling over and testing/ breaking the lows.

(Feb 18-14:17) mike: resist rejected, not buying , bounces not sticking up here

(Feb 18-14:30) mike: 35.25 yest low, 35.00 overnight low. must hold or 30.50 area next . bounces of 2.00-2.50 pts should fail if staying in dn trend

(Feb 18-14:43) mike: 38.50-39.00 resist on a bounce. . needs cleared/ held on a bounce. 2388-89 nq .
(Feb 18-14:47) mike: a buy program took it to resist. 3775 supp now should/must hold
(Feb 18-14:52) mike: a short when it stalls here for dip to 38.50-38.00
(Feb 18-15:06) mike: dow back at its high. looks like 39.50 key end of day
(Feb 18-15:20) mike: 39.50 a lid on top, nq leading. 38 needs broken soon to roll over
(Feb 18-15:42) mike: cleard the deck but for some puts from 2397 on nq . have a great weekend

 

 

 

Wednesday- February 16, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 16-09:06) mike: a gap up open shouldn't stick. 28-27 area now key supp. this mkt, they could go on up, but i'm not buying nothin up here... a 4-5 point drop off early high of day session will be key

(Feb 16-09:17) mike: 1331.75-1333.00 should be sold if reached again and move stalls out
(Feb 16-09:33) mike: need break of 30 to try reversal
(Feb 16-09:42) mike: 1331.75-1333.00 zone sold, 30 supp now needs held
(Feb 16-09:47) mike: 28-27 key supp
(Feb 16-09:55) mike: 30 was quickly reversed. is ok unless broken/ held .
(Feb 16-09:59) mike: 31.25 needs held now
(Feb 16-10:03) mike: sell 32 -33 area, top

(Feb 16-10:10) mike: if 30 breaks, not reversed quickly, then they go for 27 area. they stay in range otherwise with 33.50 possible

(Feb 16-10:13) mike: 32.00-31.50 supp now.
(Feb 16-10:18) mike: should hold 32.50-32.00 at lowest to keep this going

(Feb 16-10:26) mike: The ES gapped up 4 points and after turning down from 1332.50 resistance, the dip reversed at 1330 and took off higher again. It is a trend up as long as 1332.50 is defended. If broken, then 1330 should hold or else a reversal happend and 1328-1327 would be key support.

(Feb 16-10:27) mike: stalling, but a pullback will be bought
(Feb 16-10:29) mike: 32.50 area is supp, needs held there
(Feb 16-10:32) mike: 32.50-32.00 a pivotal area to hold now

(Feb 16-10:35) mike: trend up over 33 now. 34.50 is a pivot resist, the 1338.25-1339.00 next key area up above.

(Feb 16-10:43) mike: 34 is trend up supp now. , mkt has good bid on dips . need to break a supp to change things.

(Feb 16-10:53) mike: 34 held... key now, a reversal/ pullback from up here if broken ,
(Feb 16-10:54) mike: toppy now, need to get over 35.50 n hold to avoid drop now
(Feb 16-10:58) mike: 35.50 rejected but came right back, 34 key supp now on dip. no damage done unless broken
(Feb 16-11:11) mike: rolled over, sell under 36 , 33 next supp
(Feb 16-11:14) mike: 1334 es, 2400 nq need reversed up, or dn draft will start
(Feb 16-11:24) mike: a short under 36 now
(Feb 16-11:28) mike: nq should see 2395 area, 32.50 es, key dn there bids dried up
(Feb 16-11:40) mike: any bounce now will be sold in to, nq was parabolic. a test of highs sold. 30 supp, 28-27 seen on drp likely
(Feb 16-11:49) mike: if going to break 30, the 3450-35.00 area should be sold
(Feb 16-11:55) mike: 34 was supp when they churned at the top, now key resist. 2400 on nq
(Feb 16-12:01) mike: resist rejected be shorting under those resists

(Feb 16-12:11) mike: After the last update the ES held 1332.50 on a dip and reached 1336.00 before reversing and reaching 1328-1327 so far. A top should be in, and bounce is a short now at/ under 1332 on ES and 2400 on NQ.

(Feb 16-12:29) mike: fed minutes later. bounce wont stick, beware
(Feb 16-12:44) mike: key here, if 31.25 cleared, 32.50-33.50 possible here before a turn dn- if not, test 29ish
(Feb 16-12:50) mike: 32.50 should be tested , if not then its not so strong here
(Feb 16-12:53) mike: 29.75 small supp
(Feb 16-12:58) mike: as long as 30.00-29.75 holds, no damage done yet. range in pre fed minutes
(Feb 16-13:13) mike: 2395 on nq rejected several times, a scalp short if reversed again
(Feb 16-13:20) mike: no break dn there, flatten out

(Feb 16-13:48) mike: After the last update the ES bounced off of 1327.50 nicely. The market is still bought on every dip, and as long as the 1330 level holds the highs could be tested. It should get more volatile after the Fed Minutes.

(Feb 16-13:50) mike: 32 supp now should hold if going on up
(Feb 16-14:08) mike: nq has solid resist at 2400 to clear / hold or mkt vulnerable / slow reaction to news
(Feb 16-14:16) mike: 30 is supp, but 33.50-33.00 good resist to sell
(Feb 16-14:23) mike: 30.50-30.00 supp, can bounce but short side easier in this chopp
(Feb 16-14:36) mike: 2399-2400 on nq key / a stall a sell.
(Feb 16-14:40) mike: should pull back, but it'll be a buy as long as 2386 on nq, 32.50 es hold
(Feb 16-14:49) mike: NQ IS NOT LIKING 2400, BUT if 33.25 held, 2398 nq, can get another push higher
(Feb 16-14:57) mike: 33.50 es and 2398 nq held., key to stay away from late drop now
(Feb 16-15:02) mike: that should be a top, 2400 on nq sold, a deeper drop a buy, but not up here , 30 area maybe
(Feb 16-15:10) mike: strong mkt again, 36 area should be hard to get thru n hold. still, as long as 33 area holds no damage done...
(Feb 16-15:25) mike: 33.50 held , but small short at/ under 34.50-35.50 es, 2400-01 nq , nq vlooks more vulnerable
(Feb 16-15:26) mike: ahh, the 33 es and 2397 nq need broken soon
(Feb 16-15:37) mike: a dip needs to stay over 33.35, to close well.
(Feb 16-15:45) mike: no damage done unless 33.25 breaks. however its setting up a short in the morn. a few puts in order up here. have a good rest of the day.
(Feb 16-15:48) mike: 2400-2401 zone on nq take care

 

 

Tuesday- February 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Feb 15-09:12) mike: 24.50 yesterday low, 1328.00-1328.50 resist key on a bounce
(Feb 15-09:48) mike: 1328.00-1328.50 resist, but 25.50 supp now, must hold if staying out of trouble
(Feb 15-09:55) mike: that should be a high, 28 area
(Feb 15-09:55) mike: 26 area needs held
(Feb 15-10:02) mike: 1328.00-1328.50 sold

(Feb 15-10:03) mike: The lower open was reversed up from 1324.25, which was 1 tick under yesterday's 1324.50 low, and bounced to the 1328.00-1328.50 area where selling came in. Unless 1328 is cleared/ held the market is vulnerable still.

(Feb 15-10:07) mike: 27 area resist now, shouldnt be exceeded/ held
(Feb 15-10:12) mike: 23.50, then 20.50 target
(Feb 15-10:14) mike: 23.50 reached, if 26 not exceeded, 20.50 still likely
(Feb 15-10:16) mike: 12200 on DOW CASH is important supp too. NQ weaker n leading
(Feb 15-10:21) mike: a break here needed to put pressure on. , nq still in front
(Feb 15-10:27) mike: stay w/ shorts , 25.00-25.50 resist needs cleared/ held on a dip. or 20.50 ort lower
(Feb 15-10:34) mike: 12200 on Dow cash touched and a small bounce. that must hold or 20.50 next test. 24.50-25.00 resist now
(Feb 15-10:48) mike: 24.50-25.00 not cleared/ held , but rejected. its key here now
(Feb 15-10:55) mike: that 23.50 held so far, 12200 on dow. a test that stalls/ reverses is a trade on long side. 26.50 next resist
(Feb 15-11:14) mike: this is key up here, should pull back but 25.50 is trend supp, that needs held , or broken to reverse
(Feb 15-11:26) mike: 25.50 needs defended, 28.00-28.50 should be hard to break hold but only reverses if 25.50 not held here
(Feb 15-11:37) mike: a short under 27

(Feb 15-11:37) mike: After the last update the ES dropped to 1322.25, and the Dow Cash went to 12,200 before reversing up. If the 1328.00-1328.50 area is not rejected again, then a test of yesterday's highs is possible. A failure to break/ hold over that area keeps this 2-sided and a test of the 12200 area on Dow cash would be key to hold to avoid a poor chart pattern.

(Feb 15-11:44) mike: wedge type pattern, a drop to 25.00-24.50 would break it, bounce then should fail near 36.00-36.50
(Feb 15-11:48) mike: 24.50 met, 26 shouldnt be cleared/ held now
(Feb 15-11:55) mike: bounce off 24.50, 26.00-26.50 should fail if going lower
(Feb 15-11:58) mike: pattern playing out. 23.50 would be next supp. back in 30 min or so.
(Feb 15-12:00) mike: cover part 24.5 or better , stops tightened up. back in a bit
(Feb 15-12:01) mike: 24.50 met. 23.50 next / back in a bit, audio then

(Feb 15-12:23) mike: 60ema on 5 min chart at 26.50 now, 3rd test today that was turned back . that is a key resist to get over and not reverse right away again / *if* cleared/ held then 28.75 possible .....

(Feb 15-12:39) mike: a dip should hold 2380-2379 area on NQ , 26.25-25.75 on ES at lowest to stay in uptrend. the 28.00-28.75 area on ES still possible, but that should be tough to break/ hold unless going to 1332-33

(Feb 15-12:42) mike: 26.50 now pivotal on pullback . audio for a bit

(Feb 15-13:13) mike: mkt ok unless 2381 on NQ breaks / holds on a bounce / be on look out for 123 type top
(Feb 15-13:21) mike: 123 was put in, its a short under 27.25

(Feb 15-13:43) mike: small dip holds 26 area. a buy on a gentile dip, that shouldn't be broken/held or the tone changes. NQ leading , did on way down and up. 2382.50-2383.25, then if not rejected the 2387.50-2388.25 zone there good resist

(Feb 15-13:53) mike: 27.50-28.00 rejected too many times, a short under
(Feb 15-13:58) mike: 26.50 area resist now, 2382 on nq.
(Feb 15-14:04) mike: 24.00 then 20.50 supp
(Feb 15-14:08) mike: supp met, 25.50 shouldnt break / hold now if going lower
(Feb 15-14:10) mike: 2378 on NQ was the 5 point drop mentioned on audio, key there and 1324

(Feb 15-14:22) mike: the 2375 area on NQ key supp on this move, if that is broken then its more than a pullback. mkt under pressure under 25.00-25.50 , 27.50-28.00 is a short if that is cleared

(Feb 15-14:24) mike: After the last update the ES rallied to 1327.75 then reversed. A bounce back will be sold, careful on long side as 1320 could be next.

(Feb 15-14:28) mike: small supp 22.50, 20.50 the key tho
(Feb 15-14:37) mike: resist 24 area, a test of low should hold , or mkt in poor shape
(Feb 15-14:47) mike: should pull back, a test of 2376 on nq key for supp
(Feb 15-14:58) mike: 24 need held o dip, 2378 on nq
(Feb 15-15:07) mike: 2378 the key nd of day, a buy on a pullback if hold 2380-78
(Feb 15-15:11) mike: 26 needs cleared or vulnerable up here
(Feb 15-15:14) mike: 24.75 needs held here to stay in uptrend, 2380 nq
(Feb 15-15:24) mike: toppy, , 24.50 a pivotal level
(Feb 15-15:31) mike: 24 es, 79 nq both key end o day
(Feb 15-15:50) mike: stayed in range, have a good rest of the day.

 

Monday- February 14, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 14-09:16) mike: 1325. and 2376 key early , overnight a token higher high at 1330.50 sold
(Feb 14-09:42) mike: top, 25 must hold
(Feb 14-09:46) mike: 25 still key,
(Feb 14-10:02) mike: 26.25 key now
(Feb 14-10:07) mike: reversal near 28.50 possible

(Feb 14-10:18) mike: 2381 on NQ needs held to keep this from falling . 26.25 on ES

(Feb 14-10:23) mike: 27.50-27.25 supp , needs held mkt can reverse

(Feb 14-10:29) mike: The ES opened lower and bounced from the 1325.75-1325.25 support to the 1328.75 resistance so far. A break/ hold under 1327.50-1327.00 would turn the trends down and then the key would be 2381 on the NQ it appears.

(Feb 14-10:31) mike: its 2384 on NQ now. 27.50 on es or highs can be in
(Feb 14-10:35) mike: nasdaq holding this up. keep an eye on it trading es
(Feb 14-10:38) mike: 28.75 dbl top, short under
(Feb 14-10:40) mike: if a pullback coming today, the highs shouldn't be exceeded now
(Feb 14-10:44) mike: 27.00-27.50 resist now
(Feb 14-10:53) mike: 26.50 area should be solid resist on a bounce, 1320.50-1320.00 if 23.50 broken
(Feb 14-11:02) mike: 26.50-27.00 on ES, 2382-83 NQ resist ,
(Feb 14-11:11) mike: 26.50-27.00 on ES, 2382-83 NQ test... mkt loses its underlying bid if a failure to get thru 26.50-27.00 and hold
(Feb 14-11:18) mike: 27.0 and 2383 need held under
(Feb 14-11:20) mike: 26.50 should / must hold now. back n forth day
(Feb 14-11:29) mike: dynamic resist 27.50 , the selling started hard there earlier
(Feb 14-11:41) mike: upside stalling, 26.75 needs held to avoid rolling over . 2381 on NQ needs held too
(Feb 14-11:49) mike: dow turned dn, 27.50 needs cleared and held over to avoid drop
(Feb 14-12:03) mike: 27.50 needs held to keep the good bid .
(Feb 14-12:11) mike: key spot here, 27.50 - 27.00 must hold or change directions

(Feb 14-12:16) mike: After the last update the ES broke 1327 and dropped to 1324.50 before turning back up. It has been a 2-sided day in a narrow range. Right now the market will avoid a pullback/ drop as long as the 1327.50-11327.00 area holds again.

(Feb 14-12:19) mike: 27.50 held on the dip bulls stay in charge unless thats not defended
(Feb 14-12:21) mike: 30.50 then 1332-1333 area would be a big area if 28.75 pushed thru n sticks over that , not another reversal
(Feb 14-12:23) mike: 28.25-28.00 now supp tht must hold
(Feb 14-12:25) mike: 30.50, 32-33 areas for pullback levels/ areas . 28.25-28.00 needs held, or no go
(Feb 14-12:29) mike: they dont like it up there yet, 28.50 held so far, its trend supp but reversal up here likely
(Feb 14-12:36) mike: 28.50 holding on by a thread. NQ needs turn up or this fails up here
(Feb 14-12:44) mike: nq caught a bid again. it stays trend up unless 28.50 broken. 30.50 then 32-33 zone ey above
(Feb 14-12:48) mike: sell bounce from here, under 2950
(Feb 14-12:51) mike: 2387-2388 on nq good resist, dbl top 29.50 es so far , 27.50 s 1

(Feb 14-13:00) mike: 28.50 needs broken at minimum. stop at high if short the bounce
(Feb 14-13:02) mike: 27.50 supp 1 on dip
(Feb 14-13:06) mike: 27.50 to cover at least part on short.
(Feb 14-13:11) mike: scratch any shorts.
(Feb 14-13:12) mike: back in 10 min or so, a dip to 28.00-27.50 should hold
(Feb 14-13:23) mike: should see 30.50, or 32-33 this time , or they dont get there
(Feb 14-13:29) mike: 1.50 point range since noon, sell 29.50 . selling up here
(Feb 14-13:34) mike: 29.50-30.50 , thn 32-33 area the key resist, nq needs to catch a bid again soon or they can get hit with a quick drop to 27 or so
(Feb 14-13:41) mike: nq sure backed off 2387 easily, but es hanging in there w/ good bid on dip. 28.50 area is the key now as it was old resist..
(Feb 14-13:45) mike: nq losing it, a better short

(Feb 14-13:54) mike: stuck in this range almost 2 hours. if 28 on ES, 2383 NQ hold, the mkt avoids drop and goes further on up to la la land , 30.50 or near 32-33 . if no hold, 27 must or rolls over

(Feb 14-13:59) mike: from here, if they rally they can do so w/o me, nq looks soggy, i dont wanna buy a high
(Feb 14-14:08) mike: dow cash firmed, holding up ES here
(Feb 14-14:23) mike: mkt agress too high to buy it looks, a sell pop that fails near1329 and/or 2384 nq
(Feb 14-14:26) mike: a break under that 28 would put pressure on, 2382-81 nq
(Feb 14-14:34) mike: 28 has bee solid... needs held, or things change short term... nq in dn trend since 12:20pm

(Feb 14-14:42) mike: i'll do some audio tomorrow. too choppy narrow range to do much but scalp today. mkt wound up tight for good move . 29.50-30.50 resist, then 32-33. 28 supp key , 2882-81 nq

(Feb 14-14:57) mike: 29 should be supp now, especially 28 if 29 breaks, 29 tho needs held or a fake out breakout.
(Feb 14-15:06) mike: 30.50 just missed. 29.50-29.00 still supp. , needs held to avoid reversal
(Feb 14-15:13) mike: dont get suckered in. reward/ risk look better short around 30, 2385-87 nq

(Feb 14-15:27) mike: that 28.50 saved the day, that 28.50-28.00 will be key to hold to keep melt up move going. a run to exit if that isn't bought again and instead mkt stays under that zone.

(Feb 14-15:34) mike: nq is ready to break. use a pop to be short. toppy acting just under a big resist/ watch zone up there. have a good rest of the day.
(Feb 14-15:47) mike: 32-33 in the cards first it looks, 30.00-29.75 supp now end of day

 

 

Friday- February 11, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 11-09:01) mike: not feeling great this morn... nothing good happens unless 15.50 cleared/ held on dip
(Feb 11-09:28) mike: 1315.25 key early
(Feb 11-09:43) mike: be short something , bounces wont stick
(Feb 11-09:50) mike: was a good id at 13.50... 1311.25-1310.50 on ES, 2349.50-2348.50 are key on 1 more push dn / need a hold over 14.50 here
(Feb 11-09:52) mike: 17.5-18.00 resist
(Feb 11-09:55) mike: 15.50 supp now, key there
(Feb 11-09:59) mike: 15.50 held, its pivotal this morn
(Feb 11-10:02) mike: 17.50 resist sold. a high there if headed back dn
(Feb 11-10:05) mike: 16.50 trend supp now.
(Feb 11-10:07) mike: 17.00 now supp
(Feb 11-10:11) mike: key here, aside from 1320, that 18.50 has been rejected a number of times, 2365 area on NQ
(Feb 11-10:14) mike: reversal at resist, 15.50 needs broken now to turn this
(Feb 11-10:22) mike: should be high in
(Feb 11-10:25) mike: take a break under 16.50 to roll over, just a pullback unless broken
(Feb 11-10:36) mike: 18.50 trend up supp now, must stay over that.. a move over 20 that reverses down could start a drop, but 18.50-18.00 key now
(Feb 11-10:43) mike: a good bid on dips, top of range has seen buyers back off . 18.50 then 17.75 max supp on a dip
(Feb 11-10:49) mike: 19.50 needs held now, then 18.5

(Feb 11-10:49) mike: The lower open reversed 20 minutes in and it has been trend up since. Right now the 1318.50 is support to hold to keep that pattern and not break trend.

(Feb 11-10:51) mike: 19.50 supp now, should hold
(Feb 11-10:57) mike: 1322.75-1323.50 should be reaction area. 28 area if exceeded/ held
(Feb 11-10:59) mike: 2 point dip is most there should be to keep mel up going
(Feb 11-11:05) mike: 1 min chart, 9/ 18 ema guide. 1328.25-1328.75 key, parabolic , 23-22 key supp now
(Feb 11-11:09) mike: they should bounce here, a lower high tht stalls/ reverses a sell
(Feb 11-11:11) mike: high in for now,
(Feb 11-11:12) mike: a break of 22 would put some pressure on
(Feb 11-11:16) mike: key here, 20.50-19.75 zone if 22.50-22.00 not held
(Feb 11-11:29) mike: held a 22.50. thats key still , will break if 26 not cleared soon
(Feb 11-11:36) mike: top pattern. 20.50 next supp
(Feb 11-11:45) mike: well, as long as 22.50 held, mkt avoids drop to 20.-50-18.50. back in 20-30 minutes, w/ audio
(Feb 11-11:58) mike: a base, or diving board here.... get some puts if a pop to 28 area stalls, longs getting nervous up here
(Feb 11-12:03) mike: look like a short under 24.50
(Feb 11-12:12) mike: under 24.50 short still
(Feb 11-12:16) mike: 23 resist now
(Feb 11-12:18) mike: 20.50 supp 1
(Feb 11-12:19) mike: cover there, 20.50, at least part
(Feb 11-12:29) mike: if that 20.50 is broken, then 18.50 is minor supp, 16.50-15.50 key to hold
(Feb 11-12:36) mike: 23 resist reached, should be key, 26 if exceeded
(Feb 11-12:43) mike: 22.50 supp now, should hold if moving higher towards 26, maybe 28 zone. if not held, trends turn again
(Feb 11-12:56) mike: should see selling here or just above at 24.50
(Feb 11-13:06) mike: must stay over 23.50
(Feb 11-13:10) mike: 24 supp now
(Feb 11-13:14) mike: bids should dry up n give a pullback -- trends supp at 23.50 and 2372 nq
(Feb 11-13:23) mike: top there, or tiny bit higher, a test should be sold
(Feb 11-13:24) mike: audio on for a bit.
(Feb 11-13:53) mike: mkt stuck, but ok unless 23.50 broken. 25 needs exceeded. / held - not reversed- t extend towards 28
(Feb 11-14:01) mike: finally, 24.50 needs held now

(Feb 11-14:08) mike: 25.00-24.50 needs held. or dbl top possibly in. if more upside, 1328.25-1328.75 area should be hard getting thru n holding. a few puts in order up there if reached n move stalls out. 1333 possible, but maybe not

(Feb 11-14:15) mike: that should be a dbl top. but 25.25-24.50 zone needs broken to change the grind higher.
(Feb 11-14:17) mike: VIXY, OR SOME PUTS IN ORDER UP HERE
(Feb 11-14:25) mike: IF NOT A DOUBLE TO AT 26.50-27.00, THEN 1328.25-1328.75 RESIST, THEN 1333 AREA IS MAJOR. 25.50-25.25 AREA MUST HOLD IN THIS MINI MELT UP
(Feb 11-14:33) mike: 26 trend now supp
(Feb 11-14:34) mike: 18ema on 1 min chart is trend guide.
(Feb 11-14:40) mike: 26.25 need held now. it should hold. the spy march or apr134 are puts to consider.
(Feb 11-14:42) mike: small position. need reversal or proof correct to add. 1333 still possible
(Feb 11-14:43) mike: 27 supp now
(Feb 11-14:45) mike: 1328.25-1328.75 reached, small reject. 27.50-27.00 trend supp now
(Feb 11-14:54) mike: might have a top, ES needs to hold 27.75-27.25 or break trend
(Feb 11-15:13) mike: if 27 can hold, mkt averts pullback into close. trend day , high could come w/ 20 min left if 28.75 taken out.
(Feb 11-15:29) mike: now close under 27 trend supp
(Feb 11-15:34) mike: that should be it. upside certainly looks limited

(Feb 11-15:44) mike: a close back under 2550-25.00 would be a negative , thats a transition zone and key now. holding puts over the w/e... . can trade around w/ es intraday. have a great weekend. ''see'' you monday

 

Thursday- February 10, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Feb 10-09:03) mike: 1308.50-1308.00 supp. nasdaq was going to get hit any how, es following bounces shouldn't stick

(Feb 10-09:24) mike: 2350-52 on NQ should be good resist, 1310.00-1308.25 is big area, the gap fill there at 08.25 on ES

(Feb 10-09:36) mike: 15.50 resist
(Feb 10-09:38) mike: 12.50 needs held
(Feb 10-09:45) mike: different mkt today be selling
(Feb 10-09:46) mike: 10.00- 08 area likely
(Feb 10-09:49) mike: 08.75 close, 12 solid resist on bounce
(Feb 10-10:00) mike: 11.50-12.50 resist, 2347 nq key to break/ hold on bounce
(Feb 10-10:03) mike: 1308 es, 2340 nq are key supp to hold

(Feb 10-10:11) mike: 12.00-11.50 area supp on pullback now. 08.50-08.00 held, should be a low , 15.50, then 17 area pivotal

(Feb 10-10:22) mike: 17 just missed, 14.50 needs held to keep uptrend
(Feb 10-10:30) mike: as long as 12.50 area holds, bulls in control, , 2353 nq
(Feb 10-10:33) mike: 17 on top key too, must clear to break up out of this range
(Feb 10-10:40) mike: 17 rejected, top likely

(Feb 10-10:45) mike: The ES opened lower and bounced from the 1308.50-1308.00 gap area and then rallied back to the 1317 area before pulling back. The 1313.50-1312.50 area must hold, or trends can roll over again.

(Feb 10-10:50) mike: 14.50 now key to hold. or bears take control defending 17 area
(Feb 10-10:52) mike: a short under 17 area , key resist
(Feb 10-10:57) mike: gotta break 14.50 to shake out longs
(Feb 10-11:03) mike: 13.50 more important. that should hold if going higher
(Feb 10-11:11) mike: pop ups sold
(Feb 10-11:16) mike: chop, but if 14 holds, mkt stays out of trouble
(Feb 10-11:27) mike: 14.75 held, range bound chop, 17 area on top, 14 on bottom. 14 should / must hold
(Feb 10-11:31) mike: 17.00-06.50 should hold on a dip now.
(Feb 10-11:36) mike: 19.50, then 22 area resist , 22 especially key if reached . 17.50-17.00 needs held to get there
(Feb 10-11:39) mike: 19.50 just missed bids should dry up , but 18 holds if not top
(Feb 10-11:45) mike: 17.00-16.50 area sup now
(Feb 10-11:51) mike: stair step higher as long as 17 area held. bids dry up up here, but not on good pullback , nq strong after early dump
(Feb 10-11:57) mike: 17 held but looks like a short a pop under 19.50 high ,
(Feb 10-12:07) mike: pop to 18 sold, 17 reversed again... if held , 1 more run towards 20-22 could happen. if not , deeper dip but no collapse before a top
(Feb 10-12:13) mike: 17 is pivotal. gotta leave for a about 10 min, audio update when back

(Feb 10-12:16) mike: After the last update the ES pulled back to 1314.00 and then went to 1319.50 high so far. It could be a top, but only if 1317 is broken and then turns resistance on a bounce.

(Feb 10-12:39) mike: 123 type top up at these levels, rather look ffor shorts. audio for a bit now

(Feb 10-13:12) mike: 15.50 target 1 met, 16.50-17.00 needs cleared/ held to get another move up
(Feb 10-13:22) mike: 16.50 should hold on dip now if going higher
(Feb 10-13:24) mike: watch 12200 on dow cash for key supp this afternoon. mkt avoids trouble as long as it holds
(Feb 10-13:27) mike: nq top, sell that on bounce
(Feb 10-13:29) mike: load up short on bounce , under 17.25 its vulnerable
(Feb 10-13:41) mike: press on if nq breaks 2352-2350 area/
(Feb 10-13:42) mike: nq better short since high
(Feb 10-13:50) mike: 2350 quick reversal. , that 14.50-14.00 area on ES is good supp, from morn, key this afternoon. - mkt stays in range until broken , and / or 17 area on top
(Feb 10-14:05) mike: next dip a buy , 15.00-14.50 should hold
(Feb 10-14:14) mike: 17.50 stall, 16.50-16.00 area now supp, needs held on dip

(Feb 10-14:23) mike: The 1317 level was broken shortly after the last update, then after a bounce failed to break 1319 it started a drop to the 1314.50 level. As long 1316 is held on a dip, the market will stay in this range or work higher this afternoon with resistance at 1319.50 then 1322. If 1316 is not defended, then a reversal could occur.

(Feb 10-14:28) mike: 17 needs held. 16.50 shouldn't be seen or 14.50 would get tested. 12200 area on dow cash
(Feb 10-14:34) mike: 17 strong this time. needs defended
(Feb 10-14:38) mike: 17.50 needs held now
(Feb 10-14:40) mike: 17.50-17.00 needs held now to keep this up
(Feb 10-14:46) mike: near top of range, careful long. 18.50 good resist needs pushed thru soon
(Feb 10-14:50) mike: a pullback to 17.00-16.50 area should get bought, or mkt turning dn agan.
(Feb 10-14:58) mike: its trading range, but vulnerable at/ under 17.50-18.00 , , supp 14.50-14.00 key
(Feb 10-15:03) mike: choppy range, but shorts better reward/ risk up here , bounce wont stick
(Feb 10-15:07) mike: 12200-12195 dow cash needs reversed or range breaks below
(Feb 10-15:17) mike: small reversal of 12200 , should hold. just careful, 17.00-17.50 good resist again
(Feb 10-15:26) mike: mkt stays in range here as long as 15.50-14.50 holds. 18.50 resist if 16.75 held here
(Feb 10-15:29) mike: 19.25 possible
(Feb 10-15:38) mike: 17 still pivotal
(Feb 10-15:47) mike: 18.50 needs held now. 22 resist
(Feb 10-15:50) mike: 19.00-18.50 will be bought if not topping strong.
(Feb 10-15:54) mike: a wild ride. puts in order if 1 more run up , bounces fail
(Feb 10-15:56) mike: a close under 15 area, 12200 on do cash is failure, range still until or unless
(Feb 10-15:57) mike: 17.50 still pivotal. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- February 09, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 09-09:13) mike: good morning.. i will be away most of the day today. the VIX got to 14.86 yest, if it goes over 16 its bearish. a top could be in, a test of 1322 likely sold
(Feb 09-09:23) mike: 1317.00-1316.50 key early, needs held - 20 area then important
(Feb 09-09:36) mike: that is good r, 19.50
(Feb 09-09:37) mike: 18 needs held
(Feb 09-09:50) mike: short bounces, 20 area need cleared per last night
(Feb 09-09:59) mike: 17.00-16.50 needs broken, or mkt still ok
(Feb 09-09:59) mike: just beware of 20 resis reversing
(Feb 09-10:12) mike: 19 supp must hold there
(Feb 09-10:16) mike: may have topped, if not a run up to test high a short,

(Feb 09-10:24) mike: The ES opened lower and bounced from the 1317.00-1316.50 zone to 1321.00 before pulling back. This will stay 2 sided with selling at the 1321-1323 area unless 1316 is broken and held on a bounce.

(Feb 09-10:27) mike: bernanke speaking today, now, so volatility today.

 

 

Tuesday- February 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 08-09:38) mike: 17 rejected, its key
(Feb 08-09:40) mike: 12.50supp, must hold
(Feb 08-09:44) mike: 1316.50-1317.25 needs cleared, held to avoid downer today. 1313.50-1312.50 supp break is bad news
(Feb 08-09:51) mike: 15.50 small resist. as long as 13 holds, stay in range
(Feb 08-10:02) mike: 15..50 supp on pullback , pivotal level
(Feb 08-10:10) mike: will take break of 16.00-15.50 to roll over.
(Feb 08-10:15) mike: 16 key now, should / must hold
(Feb 08-10:18) mike: good resist, but 16 needs broken
(Feb 08-10:27) mike: 17.50 should be good supp, if not held then things change
(Feb 08-10:31) mike: if 1750 breaks, trend change, then a bounce then a short
(Feb 08-10:40) mike: top should be in, 16 key

(Feb 08-10:44) mike: The ES opened at the 1317 resistance and dropped to the 1313.50-1312.50 support, then ran up to 1319.25 so far. A high should be in, and a break of 1316 area would put pressure on. A trading range is likely.

(Feb 08-10:46) mike: 18.50-19.00 resist.

(Feb 08-10:53) mike: 18.50 good resist, stop just above-- 16.50-16.25 more important as supp. a break/ hold needed to head south

(Feb 08-10:55) mike: if short scalp out part at 17 or better, stop too break even on rest
(Feb 08-11:05) mike: mkt still vulnerable under 17.50-18.00, nq leading
(Feb 08-11:13) mike: 15.50 pullback low, that should hold if going to stay in a range
(Feb 08-11:23) mike: 17 needs held ,if broken then 15.50 again
(Feb 08-11:34) mike: holding 17 is bullish, 19.75 possible
(Feb 08-11:41) mike: 18 now trend supp, needs held to push higher
(Feb 08-11:47) mike: back in a bit... dbl top but make or break at 18,

(Feb 08-12:01) mike: 18 held, upside looks limited, but its still avoids trouble unless broken
(Feb 08-12:06) mike: short 19 or better , tight stop, 19.50 has been lid
(Feb 08-12:13) mike: 18 held and still important here , a pullback could see 17.00 or 15.75 if tht isn't held... as long as 19.50 not exceeded

(Feb 08-12:29) mike: After the last update the ES dropped to 1315.50 and reversed back up. The 1318 area has been holding and as long as that is defended the bulls remain in charge and maybe 1319.50-1320.50 can be cleared still today.

(Feb 08-12:39) mike: 20.50 a small resist, 19 area needs held here , if so 1322.75-1323.50 could be seen before reversal. trend move broken if 18 is not defended
(Feb 08-12:50) mike: little stair step higher, 19 now supp
(Feb 08-12:51) mike: and 12200 on Dow cash
(Feb 08-12:58) mike: under 20 a short
(Feb 08-13:05) mike: need dow cash to go under 12200 and stick under soon or its just another dip
(Feb 08-13:08) mike: 18 target , audio in about 10 min
(Feb 08-13:14) mike: 12200 on dow cash and 18 on ES need broken/ held here
(Feb 08-13:35) mike: 18.75 r now
(Feb 08-13:37) mike: stay w/ shorts under 18.25 - now to 1550 or so on break of 17
(Feb 08-13:46) mike: if 18.25 cleared/ some pressure off, test of 17 that stalls/reverses a scalp long. if not held like that, 15.50 key then
(Feb 08-13:57) mike: 17 area reversed. mkt doesn't wanna break,, yet. as long as 1317 defended, bulls still in charge tho doubt much more on upside the way 1320 rejected
(Feb 08-14:06) mike: 18.25 supp now ,
(Feb 08-14:26) mike: still strong over 18.50 , hold over 20 needed now
(Feb 08-14:32) mike: if 19.50-19.00 now supp is held , 1322.75-1323.50 in cards maybe higher

(Feb 08-14:39) mike: After the last update the ES pulled back to 1317.00 and turned up and made a new high. Watch the 1319.50-1319.00 area now, as it should hold if the melt up is to continue. 1317 is now a major area today.

(Feb 08-14:42) mike: need to stay over 19.75-1950 at lowest now
(Feb 08-14:50) mike: a pull back a buy, but not at these highs - 19.50 must hold
(Feb 08-14:56) mike: puts / short test of 20 if they can bounce
(Feb 08-14:57) mike: 18.50 key here, then 17 then 15.50 , 20 r
(Feb 08-15:01) mike: mkt reminds me of 1999 and 1987 , careful long up here , especially near 20
(Feb 08-15:06) mike: a bullish mkt per lately would see that 18.50 as gift long and run up to new high ...
(Feb 08-15:08) mike: 20 area should be good resist
(Feb 08-15:11) mike: like that..... 20 now sup

(Feb 08-15:15) mike: it should hold 20 area, if not 19.50 at lowest
(Feb 08-15:24) mike: 20 needs held to keep this going
(Feb 08-15:30) mike: last 30 min, unless 20 breaks mkt ok. if broken, 18.50 obviously key to hold . or not good
(Feb 08-15:42) mike: 1322.75-1323.50 next resist, 20.50 needs held still
(Feb 08-15:45) mike: looks like a close over 1320 is needed to stay in bullish mode , needs defended
(Feb 08-15:56) mike: 322.75-1323.50 just missed. that area could top it off
(Feb 08-15:57) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

Monday- February 07, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 7, 2011 9:00) mike: 1312-1313 is a key resist. - 08.50-08.00 supp 1 key


(Feb 7, 2011 9:27) mike: 1313 sold overnight, big resist. 10.25 needs held. the initial supp at 1305.50 shouldnt be tested, or reverse right away if reached, if melt up is going to continue. break of 06 would mean a high in.

(Feb 7, 2011 9:53) mike: need to hold 12.50
(Feb 7, 2011 10:01) mike: 12.50 key now. needs held.
(Feb 7, 2011 10:15) mike: 1313.50, 2343 nq key to hold
(Feb 7, 2011 10:21) mike: 14.50 supp now must hold or reversal occurs. mkt has a good bid on dips
(Feb 7, 2011 10:26) mike: as long as 16 holds dips still a buy. watch 18 for a possible reverse tho
(Feb 7, 2011 10:32) mike: 16.50 key now to hold
(Feb 7, 2011 10:35) mike: loss of momentum, 06.50 and 2346 on nq key too now

(Feb 7, 2011 10:55) mike: The ES gapped up and after a small dip to 1312.50 new support about 20 minutes in it has been a trend up move. The 1316.50 area is key and must hold to avoid a reversal of trend.

(Feb 7, 2011 10:58) mike: nq would need to break 2350-2348 zone to turn down. strong mkt otherwise
(Feb 7, 2011 11:01) mike: 17.50 now trend supp that needs held , 2350 on nq. mkt ok over those for now
(Feb 7, 2011 11:10) mike: 2353-52 on nq , 17.50-16.50 es need defended, or trend move gets dented, and a bounce that follows will be sold. nq leading ,
(Feb 7, 2011 11:18) mike: sell a pop to 19 area, 17.50 need held , lost gas and shold pull back
(Feb 7, 2011 11:34) mike: 19 reached, mkt still strong, a dip to 18 should hold if going higher
(Feb 7, 2011 11:42) mike: 19.00-18.50 supp, every dip bought. that should hold, otherwise 17 gets retest, that key now
(Feb 7, 2011 11:51) mike: this bounce a short when it stalls, near 21-22 ideal area but 20 look like possible top, nq good resist 2358-59
(Feb 7, 2011 11:52) mike: audio around 1pm. pullback coming, sell strength from here

(Feb 7, 2011 12:01) mike: After the last update the move stalled out after reaching 1319.50 and pulled back to 1317.25 before popping up to 1320.00. The market backed off, and with the higher highs being sold, don't expect this move up to last all day. A break of the 1317 area should give a drop towards 1315 or so, which would be key for the day. If not defended, trends can roll over.

(Feb 7, 2011 12:07) mike: 18.50 is pivotal. needs cleared/ held on a dip to avoid deeper drop
(Feb 7, 2011 12:29) mike: 18.00-18.50 resist, still can see16.50 supp or lower

(Feb 07-12:46) mike: a test of 18.00-17.50 should hold now
(Feb 07-13:03) mike: 16.50 is the key supp, should hold n bounce from there to stay strong.
(Feb 07-13:21) mike: need to hold 18 here and push thru 19 area to keep upside intact
(Feb 07-13:32) mike: stuck here but if 18 holds, 19.25 can be tested - nq needs to turn up to help
(Feb 07-13:39) mike: a short under 18.50

(Feb 07-13:45) mike: to break down, 1317 needs broken thru, then held on a bounce.... something holding this up real odd.. a push thru 18.50-19.00 needed to squeeze higher

(Feb 07-13:46) mike: staying w shorts under 18.50
(Feb 07-13:46) mike: audio in few minutes


(Feb 07-13:49) mike: audio


(Feb 07-14:20) mike: 17.75 resist, should fail if going lower
(Feb 07-14:29) mike: failed at resist, 16.00-15.50 need held

(Feb 07-14:51) mike: pullback not vicious selling, 15.50 needs held. a bounce there could occur, but under pressure under 17.50 bounce high
(Feb 07-14:54) mike: might have snuck in a top, 15.50 reached but still under pressure under 16.50 now
(Feb 07-14:54) mike: nq leader

(Feb 07-14:57) mike: After the last update the break of the sideways channel at 1317.25 broke and held so pressure should be on unless 1316.50-1317.00 cleared and held.

(Feb 07-15:10) mike: 16.25 resist now , a test of 14.50 needs held or 12.50 next, key there
(Feb 07-15:17) mike: 15.25-15.50 resist
(Feb 07-15:25) mike: they can bounce.1.50-2.00pts from dn here, but should not hold
(Feb 07-15:38) mike: 20 and 60ema at 15.75 on 5 min, key to get over
(Feb 07-15:42) mike: 14.50 area needs held to avoid drop into close
(Feb 07-15:49) mike: 15.50 needs held, 17-.00-17.50 resist
(Feb 07-15:59) mike: toppy acting, careful long
(Feb 07-16:01) mike: a couple vix sell sigs given. have a good day

 

 

Friday- February 04, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 04-09:12) mike: not liking long side odds, but 1304 needs broken/ held
(Feb 04-09:15) mike: 1308.00-1308.50 zone high, shouldnt be seen , if so sold
(Feb 04-09:38) mike: top
(Feb 04-09:38) mike: no way will they stay over 1306
(Feb 04-09:39) mike: 04.50 resist 1
(Feb 04-09:40) mike: 99.75 key /
(Feb 04-10:04) mike: supp held, 03.50 must hold ,now. not reverse 06 again
(Feb 04-10:15) mike: break of 03 means top. sell bounces you'll get em back
(Feb 04-10:17) mike: 04.25 area resist.
(Feb 04-10:23) mike: 0425 stall, if the triple top broken on upside, the 07.50-08.00 would be next and sold
(Feb 04-10:33) mike: short under 06
(Feb 04-10:35) mike: if 04 holds and 06 not rejected again, 1 more run up possible to 08 area
(Feb 04-10:39) mike: too much rejection at 05.50-06.00 resist, stay short under tht

(Feb 04-10:45) mike: The ES popped up and reversed from the 1305.50-1306.50 zone on the open, and dropped to the 1300.50-1299.75 zone. A bounce off of 1300.00 failed at the the 1305.50-1306.50 zone and that is a triple top to sell against.

(Feb 04-10:49) mike: if recent action is to continue, the ES should run right back up to the high..... doubt it does this time... 03.500-04.00 resist
(Feb 04-10:54) mike: a short under 02 now
(Feb 04-11:05) mike: 98.00 supp reached, but a bounce shouldn't break hold 01.50 now.

(Feb 04-11:17) mike: it sure looks like a top, but as long as 1298.00-1297.50 on ES and 2317.50=2316.50 are held, still no bigger damage done yet on downside , leaves door open for another bounce,. but new high doubtful

(Feb 04-11:39) mike: 2325 on NQ key here. on a dip 01.50 supp now, has to hold over that
(Feb 04-11:49) mike: a bounce off 01.50 should fail near 03 - Naz holding this up
(Feb 04-11:53) mike: 03 should be it if going lower
(Feb 04-11:55) mike: lunchtime move, lid at 03 , 2325 NQ
(Feb 04-11:57) mike: 01.50 supp to 03.00 resist, now must break 01.50 n hold there , 2323 nq

(Feb 04-12:14) mike: 01.50-02.00 resist now
(Feb 04-12:18) mike: choppy lunchtime action... 02.00 a stall here, but that 2323 on NQ needs broken. otherwise its just a dip

(Feb 04-12:24) mike: Since the last update the ES bounced to 1303.50 and pulled back. The NQ is keeping the market up, and now the market will be ok unless 2323 is broken and not quickly reversed. A hold over 1301.50 on ES is also needed to stay away from trouble this afternoon.

(Feb 04-12:40) mike: bulls in charge as long as NQ keeps its bid , 02.50 on ES supp now
(Feb 04-12:44) mike: 2327 on nq needs held, that 03.50 resist earlier so could reverse
(Feb 04-12:45) mike: 02.50 es, 2326 nq now need held to stay uptrends
(Feb 04-12:56) mike: 03.25-03.00 need hold or top at 04.00
(Feb 04-13:08) mike: trends stay up unless 03 breaks still
(Feb 04-13:16) mike: a pullback from up here likely, but its still ok as long as 04 hold a on dip
(Feb 04-13:22) mike: 05.50-06.50 key, 080-08.50 , 2338-2340 nq next/ 04.50 - 04.00 supp on dip
(Feb 04-13:31) mike: resist rejected, need break of 04.50-04.00 , or NQ to reverse up here to roll over

(Feb 04-13:33) mike: audio for a bit

(Feb 04-13:52) mike: stair step up as long as 04.25 held, 08 area resist
(Feb 04-13:55) mike: audio off for now, if 06 cleared / a pop to 08.00-08.50 possible
(Feb 04-14:03) mike: nq finally backed off, sell up here
(Feb 04-14:11) mike: a bounce should fail up here, a drop could be kinda hard
(Feb 04-14:16) mike: strange action, 04 better hold
(Feb 04-14:37) mike: should be it
(Feb 04-14:40) mike: the internals negative, vix lower, a fail at resist. sell an strength if not short
(Feb 04-14:53) mike: the pullback held at 60ema on 5 min chart, mkt safe unless that close from yesterday at 1303.25 should hold on a pullback
(Feb 04-15:03) mike: 1 tick higher high, prairie dog
(Feb 04-15:06) mike: mkt upside limited , dnside long ways to go just to pull back..
(Feb 04-15:16) mike: if 0550-05.00 holds, it should put pressure on for a run to token new high
(Feb 04-15:22) mike: new high by 1 tick again, 05.50 area key late day here.
(Feb 04-15:30) mike: ok over 05.50...nq need to get over 37.50 n stick. rejected 3 tomes

 

Thursday- February 03, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 03-09:16) mike: as long as 1298.00-1297.50 area holds, mkt stays out of trouble this morn.
(Feb 03-09:22) mike: gotta get over 1300 n hold to get rally
(Feb 03-09:24) mike: ISM Services at 10am
(Feb 03-09:48) mike: toppy but ok if 98 holds
(Feb 03-09:57) mike: sell bounces, could get ugly today if transportation average sinks again
(Feb 03-10:01) mike: 01.50 r
(Feb 03-10:02) mike: sell unless broken/ held
(Feb 03-10:04) mike: bad day unless 01.50 exceeded, 95.50, then 92 area

(Feb 03-10:10) mike: The ES opened at the 1298.00-1297.50 support and bounced to 1301.50 resistance, then dropped to 1298.00 again. A pop to 1301.25 was rejected and unable to hold 1300 the market was sold hard. A bounce is a gift to short as this can get ugly today.

(Feb 03-10:21) mike: 1292.25-1291.50 held, but 94.50 needs cleared
(Feb 03-10:30) mike: 95.50 needs exceeded, held to avoid more dn side
(Feb 03-10:39) mike: a move towards 97.50-98.50 possible, should fail up there if reached
(Feb 03-10:43) mike: key here, need to stay over 94.50. audio for a few min
(Feb 03-11:06) mike: 97 shouldn't be cleared now , 94.50 small supp, then 82.75 then lows
(Feb 03-11:25) mike: 93.75-93.25 isa key area, needs held or mkt tests/ breaks low. good resist 97.50-98.50 -- if this keeps pushing thru 96.50 - if it can't, back down they go
(Feb 03-11:34) mike: ok, 95.50 should hold, must be lots of shorts covering. 98.50 that should give pullback
(Feb 03-11:38) mike: 98.50 reached, 97 00-96.50 supp
(Feb 03-11:47) mike: 1300 rejected
(Feb 03-11:55) mike: have to break 98.50 98.00 soon, sell w/ tgt stop
(Feb 03-11:58) mike: had lost mo, need 98.50 to break or 1300 rejected
(Feb 03-12:01) mike: 99 is trend supp now
(Feb 03-12:05) mike: small shorts up here, 01.50 shouldnt be exceeded
(Feb 03-12:14) mike: a break f 98 should put pressure back on
(Feb 03-12:31) mike: sell zone up here , 01 area good resist

(Feb 03-12:31) mike: After the last update a bounce to 1297.00 failed, but then buying came in at 1293.75 and a run to the 1301 level occurred. This 1301 area should be a bounce high, a pullback needs to stay over the 1298.50-1298.00 area to avoid that. If 1301 is not reversed, then it's possible get to 1303 area before reversing.

(Feb 03-12:46) mike: no break unless / until 98.50 break. 1300 would need exceeded/ held not rejected to avoid this
(Feb 03-12:47) mike: should break soon and go to 97.50-97.00 or lower. if high in
(Feb 03-13:01) mike: 98 is key still, for proof or to trigger selling. 1300.50-1301.50 area tho has been a brick wall. waiting for proof
(Feb 03-13:12) mike: must be lots of shorts trapped, 1300 a wall... IF they break out, 1303.50 can be seen, that would be sold back towards 98 at least

(Feb 03-13:34) mike: odd action, 1300.50-01.50 resist , 2320-22 resist on nq , shouldn't be exceeded if 1 more pop up
(Feb 03-13:39) mike: quick audio update
(Feb 03-14:04) mike: watch 1298 es and 2314 nq for supp. mkt holds together as long as not broken. a move over 1301.50 that crosses back dn thru should trigger pullback

(Feb 03-14:08) mike: too many rejections up there.. and 98 area is a magnet , should see again even if a run up
(Feb 03-14:13) mike: 1300-1301 and 2319-2320 sell zones with stop just over , 98.50-98.00 and 2315-14 supp, zones must hold
(Feb 03-14:19) mike: cover this , something not right with this this time
(Feb 03-14:19) mike: no instant reversal
(Feb 03-14:22) mike: 99.75 supp, or then 98.50-98.00 area again
(Feb 03-14:30) mike: After the last update a pullback held the 1298.50-1298.00 area and bounced back to 1301 again. That 1298 area and 2314 on the NQ are key, and need to hold to avoid a top. The 1301.50 level needs cleared or 1298 will be seen again today/ tomorrow morning.

(Feb 03-14:32) mike: 99.75 is small supp . must hold that
(Feb 03-14:41) mike: 98 area can be seen if 1301.00-1301.50 not cleared, or, 99.75 breaks,, 2317 on nq. mkt acts nervous up here . if 1 more pop up, 03.50-04.00 resist
(Feb 03-14:46) mike: reversal if 99.75 breaks. 2317 nq too. last hour should give a good move by the way this is wound up tight
(Feb 03-14:50) mike: 01.50 resist was early high, if pushed thru then can go up towards 03.50-04.00 before running out of steam
(Feb 03-14:56) mike: 1301.00-1300.50 should be good supp now, at lowest, to keep this going .
(Feb 03-14:58) mike: 03.50- 04.00 resist up here, 01.50 need hold now
(Feb 03-15:03) mike: 02 supp on pullback from 03.50-04.00 , must hold there
(Feb 03-15:05) mike: bernanke rally, 03.00 trend up supp
(Feb 03-15:41) mike: duh, had mic muted. 04.50 needs to hold now, 05.50-06.50 is a key resist . 03.50 key end of day
(Feb 03-15:44) mike: trend stay up as long as 04.50 is held now , if broken then a late dip but strong mkt for now
(Feb 03-15:50) mike: 04.50 needs held,
(Feb 03-15:51) mike: amazing rebound. its ok over 04.50 tho.. have a good rest of the day...
(Feb 03-15:55) mike: move like this before jobs data, a few puts in order ,


 

Wednesday- February 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 02-09:15) mike: take profit on shorts [puts] on lower open , 1298.00-1297.50 key early
(Feb 02-09:26) mike: blizzard has things kinda busy here, new york thin and chicago snow is same here. after first 90 minutes i need to step away. after that, hope to have normal afternoon
(Feb 02-09:27) mike: bounces should fail, 1298.00-1297.50 key early
(Feb 02-09:38) mike: 02.00-02.50 r
(Feb 02-09:40) mike: 02 needs cleared / held or dn they go
(Feb 02-09:57) mike: 02 supp now, need to stay over
(Feb 02-10:16) mike: should pull back, but over1299 mkt ok
(Feb 02-10:25) mike: need to hold 02 now or back dn
(Feb 02-10:29) mike: 2323 on NQ KEY TO KEEPING UPSIDE
(Feb 02-10:35) mike: 02.50 held, if broken, then trend break. 2323 on nq
(Feb 02-10:46) mike: tht should be a top for 2 sided day. a pop to a test high that stalls a short

(Feb 02-10:52) mike: The lower open held just over the 1298.00-1297.50 zone and a bounce back to 1304.25 happened so far. The 1301.50 level needs to hold to avoid trouble, otherwise a test of the low should be bought, and a test of the high sold.

(Feb 02-10:59) mike: toppy acting. need to get over 03
(Feb 02-11:04) mike: 01.50 needs broken / held to put any pressure on. and NQ need to break too, its holdi this
(Feb 02-11:12) mike: 01.50-02.00 resist nw
(Feb 02-11:20) mike: 98.50 on ES, 2315 on NQ should be bought if 1 more push lower and stall/ reverse quickkly , range bound 2 way trade so far w/ downside bias
(Feb 02-11:32) mike: if 1300 breaks, then turns up thru 1300, its a scalp long. / otherwise since bounce not sticking sell the pop up that stall at / under 03
(Feb 02-11:59) mike: need NQ to lose its bid and hold under 2322 area, or chop continues. - its resting after yesterday.
(Feb 02-12:05) mike: 1303 and 12050 on dow cash has been a lid on bounces, NQ losing luster. a short under those
(Feb 02-12:17) mike: rolling over to test/ break low if 2321 on NQ breaks and no snap back
(Feb 02-12:23) mike: 98.50 if lows break

(Feb 02-12:23) mike: After the last update the ES tested its low then bounce to just under 1303. The market is a sell om bounces, they won't stick.

(Feb 02-12:27) mike: if you bought puts yest w/ es at 1305, and didn't cover on open per pre open remark, cover dn here.. trail stop at worst, 03 key resist now
(Feb 02-12:32) mike: 5th test of 13001299. must stay over that area
(Feb 02-12:39) mike: choppy range continues as long as the 99.75-99.25 can hold. on NQ the 2318-00-2317.50 -- those should hold to stay in this range.

(Feb 02-12:53) mike: stuck still. there should be a good bid if low tested again. lots of lows defended there, if tested/ and stalls there, should spring back up. if not held, then 98.50-97.50 or air pocket towards 94.50 should/ must hold

(Feb 02-13:07) mike: its gotta get over 02 and hold.
(Feb 02-13:12) mike: dow holding this up, 12050 there key to push thru / hold
(Feb 02-13:18) mike: looks like 01 needs held/ reversed. nq losing it
(Feb 02-13:22) mike: 2319.00-2317.50 zone on nq and 1301.00-1300.50 good supp, or no damage done as long as those are defended.

(Feb 02-13:31) mike: The ES made several lows at the 1299.75 area and that needs to be defended to stay in this sideways range, and not drop towards 1295.50 area. On top, 12050 on Dow cash needs exceeded/ held to get a push higher. The 1306-1307 area would be key then. Sidelines isn't a bad place in this environment at the moment.

(Feb 02-13:42) mike: 12050 reversal. just sell bounce under 03
(Feb 02-13:45) mike: mkt losing its underlying bid, bounces will fail but need break of 99.50 and not quickly reverse
(Feb 02-13:50) mike: only nervous shorts can pop this up, keep from breaking dn , this should get a decent pullback. triangle pattern, should break this range with momentum
(Feb 02-14:25) mike: mkt could go either way , and fast if it breaks out of range. nq has been key by staying over 2319.00-2317.50 . no damage as long as that holds
(Feb 02-14:36) mike: blizzard has kids home and mkt a scalp / chop suey, no audio, and nothing to say but careful on either side, it can cut you up if not nimble
(Feb 02-14:53) mike: pullback to 02 should hold
(Feb 02-15:04) mike: 02.00 held, careful a bounce should be sold 03.50-04.50 - 02 must hold tho
(Feb 02-15:13) mike: 03.50 rejected, a short if reached

 

 

Tuesday- February 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 01-09:13) mike: 1291.50-1292.25 on ES, 2295.25-2296.50 on NQ is key, shouldn't hold up there
(Feb 01-09:21) mike: 88.50-87.50 supp should be key on drop
(Feb 01-09:43) mike: 92.50 must break, then 1290 key supp . nq weak
(Feb 01-09:50) mike: ism index top of the hour. 92 supp
(Feb 01-09:57) mike: 9350 needs hold now
(Feb 01-10:08) mike: topped
(Feb 01-10:21) mike: right now, as long as 93.00-92.50 held on a pullback, no harm done
(Feb 01-10:36) mike: a hold over 95.50 to keep uptrend

(Feb 01-10:42) mike: The ES gapped up and kept going and is back near 52 week highs. As long as 1295.50 holds the trend move continues, but if that breaks then a reversal can occur.

(Feb 01-10:51) mike: 97.50-97.00 trend up supp. needs broken or its still up
(Feb 01-10:57) mike: small short , tight stop
(Feb 01-11:00) mike: need 97.50 to break, 2314 on nq soon or no reversal
(Feb 01-11:09) mike: the 1300 looks like a lid, as long as 97.50 holds, still trnd up. but toppy up here
(Feb 01-11:21) mike: sell a pop up up that stalls near98.50 resist , 95.50 area now a key supp
(Feb 01-11:39) mike: bounce over 98.50 area , mkt has had a good bid so need to break under 97.75 and not bounce right back up
(Feb 01-11:47) mike: 9875 needs held now, nq 2315
(Feb 01-11:53) mike: still trend up over 99.25-98.75 now , 1301 resist
(Feb 01-12:01) mike: 1301 rejected, if 99.50 breaks , its a top in for now
(Feb 01-12:07) mike: 99.50 held, nq at its high. key here at 99.50 now
(Feb 01-12:18) mike: 1302.50-1303.50 is next bigger resist
(Feb 01-12:22) mike: 1301 must hold now on a dip, 0350 rejection, 01.50 supp must hold now
(Feb 01-12:23) mike: audio in a few min
(Feb 01-12:29) mike: they could be reversed if 03 not exceeded soon, or 02 breaks. need to hold 01.50 at worst. audio updates for a bit
(Feb 01-12:59) mike: its trend up day over 1302.50 now, 05.50-06.50 could give some resist
(Feb 01-13:05) mike: 03.75 pullback supp, needs to hold
(Feb 01-13:06) mike: 05.50-06.50 is kind key up here, careful w new longs
(Feb 01-13:16) mike: high at 1305.50 resist looking like top, if 03.25 broken. if they get to 05-06 zone again and stall, sell for scalp at least
(Feb 01-13:23) mike: NQ weakening vs ES. a 2 point dip on ES , needs to stay over 1303.50area

(Feb 01-13:29) mike: After the last update the ES HELD 1295.50 and rallied to 1305.50 so far. As long as a dip holds the 1303 area the market will stay trend up, though its getting extended. If the 1306 area is not reversed then the 1312-1313 area has an outside chance of being seen.

(Feb 01-13:33) mike: sell nq on bounce , way extended
(Feb 01-13:53) mike: 03.50 needs held, or 1301 in cards, and 1297 is bigger trend support .
(Feb 01-14:15) mike: the mkt acts tired but ok holding around 1303 area, but if broken then 1301.50 should be seen, maybe 1297 area which .is key supp
(Feb 01-14:20) mike: a pop up to 05.50-06.50 should fail. , 04.00 looking like good r rgt now
(Feb 01-14:26) mike: not feeling well, will do much more audio tomorrow. up here its a safer short on a bounce than long it looks
(Feb 01-14:28) mike: if they drop towards 97, that should hold if mkt still strong

(Feb 01-14:46) mike: as long as the ES can stay over 1302.50 area its still a trend up day. just beware of selling around the 06 area. if that is cut thru, 1312-1313 area next , not impossible the way this has acted

(Feb 01-14:49) mike: trapped longs up there for sure, a pop will be sold
(Feb 01-15:02) mike: should dip to 03..25 or lower before bounce
(Feb 01-15:12) mike: bounce sold, but so far mkt refuses to break out over 1306 or break 1302, as long as this 03.25, or the 02 area at lowest is held, bulls in charge, upside to 1306 area
(Feb 01-15:16) mike: the 2326.50 on NQ sold 3 or 4 times, need a push thru that to keep going up
(Feb 01-15:28) mike: 03.25 supp now
(Feb 01-15:34) mike: 03.25 then bounce again. that should be held if 05.50 not a top.
(Feb 01-15:36) mike: gap day / trend day. low made in first 5 min, the high could be made at the close.
(Feb 01-15:41) mike: back to back trend days are rare. buying small put position if near 05 near close
(Feb 01-15:51) mike: should rally until 3:55-4pm then pull back
(Feb 01-15:53) mike: small short via puts. have a good day
(Feb 01-16:08) mike: got a good price on puts, will likely add on a early bounce in morning . have a good rest of the day 98.50-97.50 is target 1

 

 

Monday- January 31, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 31-09:10) mike: a decent drop should come , a bounce from lower levvels
(Jan 31-09:18) mike: 76.25-75.50 small supp 1
(Jan 31-09:25) mike: 1277.50-1278.50 ES, 2275.50-2276.00 NQ key resist
(Jan 31-09:35) mike: sold, 78.stop , 74.50 target 1
(Jan 31-09:36) mike: NQ should lead
(Jan 31-09:42) mike: 74.50 hold, Chicago PMI soon
(Jan 31-10:00) mike: stay w/ selling pop under 76-77
(Jan 31-10:02) mike: good supp dn there, need a hold under 74 to do damage now
(Jan 31-10:13) mike: need a move over 77 that holds, vulnerable under that
(Jan 31-10:16) mike: a hold under 75.50 keep pressure on

(Jan 31-10:21) mike: The ES opened at the 1277.50-1278.50 zone and dropped 3.50 points to the 1274.50 updated support and bounced back. That bounce failed at 1277.50 and a low at 1273.25 was made. The ES is in a range, with a decent bid round 1274 so a break / hold under 1274 area is needed to break down. Otherwise, the 1278.50 is key resistance to get through to get more buying towards 1281-1282.

(Jan 31-10:26) mike: 7550 need hold now
(Jan 31-10:32) mike: 76 key now on dip. 78.50 good resist
(Jan 31-10:43) mike: 78.50 not held, but looking like no damage done unless 77.00-76.50 area is nt held on a dip now
(Jan 31-10:52) mike: 77 area held so far, key now, transition area since it was from 78.50 area
(Jan 31-10:54) mike: lost momentum, like at low, a short under 78.50 area
(Jan 31-10:58) mike: scratch any shorts, stair step up unless77 breaks
(Jan 31-11:08) mike: 78.50 needs to hold now to keep uptrend
(Jan 31-11:14) mike: its a break down if 78.50 is not held,
(Jan 31-11:19) mike: dbl top on dow cash, the NQ keeping this up now, but ES a sell , 80 shouldnt be seen now w/o reverse if it is reached
(Jan 31-11:20) mike: audio for a bit before lunchtime action
(Jan 31-11:38) mike: its the nq holding mkt up, 2271 there is the key level. to stay over

(Jan 31-11:54) mike: in range again, but a sell under 80, 2275 nq...

(Jan 31-11:55) mike: After the last update the ES held the 1274 area and rallied through 1278 to 1280.00 and has been staying over 1278 so far. That and 2271-2270 on NQ need to hold or a high will be in for a bit and 1275.50-1274.50 zone would be key, must hold, support.

(Jan 31-12:06) mike: two sided upside action. as long as 78 area holds,mkt holds together and 82 area possible, but would have a hard time staying there.
(Jan 31-12:10) mike: 82 area reached, a dip need hold 80.00-79.50 area now
(Jan 31-12:15) mike: 1281.75-1282.50 has been rejected, but 80.00-79.50 should hold/ must hold
(Jan 31-12:32) mike: if 82 breaks, dynamics change,
(Jan 31-12:38) mike: sell up here, 80 key supp now
(Jan 31-12:42) mike: 80 should test, 82.50 resist now
(Jan 31-12:53) mike: 82.25 rejected, should go for 80 or lower if NQ breaks 2277-75
(Jan 31-13:08) mike: 82 need hold , to stay trend up and not dbl top
(Jan 31-13:20) mike: 82 defended, 83 sold.... NQ toppy too, 80 supp likely
(Jan 31-13:24) mike: there must be lots of shorts , cover every dip. it looks toppy, but 81-80 needs broken
(Jan 31-13:35) mike: could scalp long w/ tight stop , but 82.75-83.00. has been a lid, and toppy acting. fear here of pulling the rug from under the mkt up here
(Jan 31-13:36) mike: should test 80.25 on this, then its decision for bulls to hold or fold there
(Jan 31-13:42) mike: 81.50-82.00 resist now. sell bounces a high should be in for now
(Jan 31-13:45) mike: a 2 point bounce should be most it goes if 123 type top in up there

(Jan 31-14:08) mike: 2 sided day, not sticking on bounces well, the 1280.25 ES and 2275.50 NQ are transition supp , the mkt is in trading range unless those break , tho a failure on test of high should set up a short

(Jan 31-14:12) mike: avoid long, they might bounce but not far
(Jan 31-14:19) mike: 79.25-78.50 supp,/ target, 2275 on NQ. 81.25 area resist1.

 

audio ... audio... audio... audio...


(Jan 31-14:35) mike: 78.50 area key to hold now, 79.75-80.25 resist
(Jan 31-14:38) mike: 79.50 r now. 77.50, then 74.50-74.00 next supp

(Jan 31-14:49) mike: After the last update the ES rallied to 1283.75 but then turned back down to test the 1278 area. The market is vulnerable under 1280 on the ES and 2275 on NQ.

(Jan 31-14:54) mike: 77.50 should be strong supp, volatility is picking up, so dont be stubborn with either side
(Jan 31-15:00) mike: pivotal areas, 80.50 es and 2275 NQ,
(Jan 31-15:07) mike: 80.50-80.00 supp now.
(Jan 31-15:14) mike: back 80.50 that and 2275 on nq key end of day
(Jan 31-15:24) mike: 79.50 would need to hold now to avoid a drop towards 78-77
(Jan 31-15:33) mike: 79.50 cant be broken now
(Jan 31-15:40) mike: as long as 80.50, more so 79.50 holds the mkt not damaged, it is a red flag if broken tho
(Jan 31-15:52) mike: sell 83 if reached/ rejected again
(Jan 31-15:56) mike: should see 83 before close, then pull back
(Jan 31-16:00) mike: 82.00-81.50 supp/ have a good day

 

 

Sunday- January 30, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 30-19:30) mike: lows at 1263.00-1262.00 zone on ES and 2252.50-2250.50 zone on NQ ARE KEY, SHOUL
(Jan 30-19:33) mike: 1263.00-1262.00 ES and 2252.50-2250.50 NQ major , good bounce supp but not a bottom

 

Friday- January 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 28-09:08) mike: 98.50 on top, 1294.00-1293.50 on bottom. still in amazing uptrend as long as 94 held on first dip
(Jan 28-09:13) mike: still a short under 9850
(Jan 28-09:20) mike: need a move under 97 before scare out longs. under weather this morn, audio around noon if up to it
(Jan 28-09:25) mike: Michigan Sentiment at 9:55am
(Jan 28-10:04) mike: 94 key/ but a bounce a short , 88 still likely
(Jan 28-10:07) mike: NQ is sick, any bounce a sell there
(Jan 28-10:20) mike: The ES popped over 1298.50 but quickly reversed and that should be a top now. Only a hold over 1294.50 can dent the downside towards 11288 at least.

(Jan 28-10:23) mike: 92.50 r now. a bounce could happen but if so gift short
(Jan 28-10:26) mike: 88 met, 1283.00-1282.50 in the cards if 92 not cleared. held
(Jan 28-10:34) mike: 85.50 small supp
(Jan 28-10:35) mike: 83-82 area still next key zone. 89.2 r now
(Jan 28-10:45) mike: 89 rejected even... unless thats exceeded/ held , its a trend down ugly day
(Jan 28-10:48) mike: 85.50 small supp, found a bid, but 1283.00-1282.50 if no move over 89
(Jan 28-10:53) mike: follow 18 ema on 1 min chart fr trend resist till broken
(Jan 28-10:54) mike: or 2 min chart, 15 sma
(Jan 28-11:03) mike: 86.50 r now, 1283.00-1282.50 key then 78-77 zone area key. pressure on under 85.50-86.00
(Jan 28-11:06) mike: NQ very weak , bounce should fail 85.50 if going lower
(Jan 28-11:10) mike: cover day trade short , or tighten stop
(Jan 28-11:12) mike: if in from well above, stay with part , 88.50 area key resist , shouldnt get there
(Jan 28-11:21) mike: 86.50 small resist, 84.50 now small supp on dip
(Jan 28-11:32) mike: 78-77 likely before day iis over
(Jan 28-11:34) mike: NQ has been leading, milk this for all its worth , 78-77 as long as 86.50 not cleared
(Jan 28-11:42) mike: NQ 50 pts off its early high

(Jan 28-11:55) mike: The market is in trend down mode, lead by the NQ which is down more than 55 points. This is a crashette day, only a break/ hold over 1282.50-1283.0- can stop it.

(Jan 28-11:55) mike: 78-77 zone reached, 1276.25 is the key level on a close, a top in place if close today under that level. -- trend resist now 79.50-80.50

 

 

Thursday- January 27, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 27-09:05) mike: if you carried over short from near 96 yesterday cover at this 1292.00-1291.25 zone, -- still feel that is a strong resist, top maybe.

(Jan 27-09:42) mike: 1292.00-1291.25 key ,
(Jan 27-09:48) mike: if 93.50 breaks tp in
(Jan 27-09:48) mike: 2322 on NQ KEY TOO
(Jan 27-09:58) mike: 95 must hold, housing number 1 min
(Jan 27-10:03) mike: 95 key, top in, sell under 98

(Jan 27-10:18) mike: The 1292.00-1291.25 zone was bought on the open and the 1297.75-1298.50 zone was reached and rejected. The action is a bit odd, but it looks like the 1296 level needs cleared/ held to avoid more downside.

(Jan 27-10:20) mike: 95 supp here, need to stay over
(Jan 27-10:25) mike: its a short unless 96 is exceeded/ held
(Jan 27-10:29) mike: tight stop, as long as 94.50 holds on a dip, no damage done
(Jan 27-10:34) mike: 96.00-95.50 supp now, needs to hold to test 98
(Jan 27-10:39) mike: buyers back off that 97-98 area, should be hard to clear , seller up here
(Jan 27-10:42) mike: it doesn't unravel unless the 94 level breaks / holds on a bounce.
(Jan 27-10:49) mike: we have yet to have a 5 min close over 96.50,, has been rejected 5 times. it needs cleared / held soon or bears take over
(Jan 27-10:59) mike: as long as the ES stays over 94.50 no damage is done.
(Jan 27-11:00) mike: hm, a test of 96.50 that stalls is a short
(Jan 27-11:02) mike: need range break, but i'm shorting top side, risk on new longs poor

(Jan 27-11:03) mike: audio on for a bit

(Jan 27-11:32) mike: 92.50-93.00 now trend resist / dbl bottom on dow needs broken to press to 88.25 area
(Jan 27-11:37) mike: 92.25 sold, its key over lunchtime trading

(Jan 27-11:44) mike: After the last update the ES popped up to 1297 but couldn't stick and a reversal took the ES to 1290.75 so far. The 1293.50-1294.00 area is resistance now and the market remains vulnerable under that area. If the low is broken then 1288 area is major today.

(Jan 27-11:54) mike: 93 rejected , its key.
(Jan 27-11:55) mike: i'm away for 15 min or so

(Jan 27-12:31) mike: dow 12000, resist here
(Jan 27-12:33) mike: if 2323 on NQ breaks, they roll over. a test of low should hold
(Jan 27-12:44) mike: next pullback will be likely be bought, 93.50 supp now
(Jan 27-12:47) mike: 94.50 should be good supp if going higher
(Jan 27-12:58) mike: 94.75 , then 93.50 supp now
(Jan 27-13:04) mike: The 1293.50-1294.00 area was broken and held on a dip and the market is close to the highs. That 1293.50 is pivotal, key, support and needs to hold to avoid a break down. If 1296 is not cleared we will test that area at least.

(Jan 27-13:12) mike: 94.75 needs held. to keep this from breaking down / pulling back
(Jan 27-13:18) mike: as long as 94.75 area holds no damage done
(Jan 27-13:20) mike: now need a 5 min close over 96 area on next bar or 2, or dn they go
(Jan 27-13:26) mike: sell 96 on a reversal. or wait to see if a break of 94.75 to confirm pullback
(Jan 27-13:41) mike: 95.25 r here, 93.50 next supp
(Jan 27-13:50) mike: mkt wont give up. the way it acts, a dip is an automatic buy as they never pull back and hold. 94.50 should hold
(Jan 27-13:54) mike: ok , the 96 level and 12000 on dow cash need cleared/ held.... sell with stop just over
(Jan 27-14:00) mike: unreal. , mkt needs break/ hold under 94.50 to change - or a hold over 96 needed to go fo 98 or 1300s

(Jan 27-14:20) mike: we have been in this range since 12:40pm eastern, 94.50 was resist turned support. there is good resist up here obviously, but shorts are under pressure unless 94.50 breaks. thus a transition level to break

(Jan 27-14:25) mike: audio for a bit

(Jan 27-14:53) mike: not sure how much higher this goes but 1293.50 is pivotal . a pullback will hold there or things will change . 95.25 minor supp here
(Jan 27-15:04) mike: 12000 on dow cash key on upside. another reversal likely
(Jan 27-15:22) mike: still no hold over 96, sell area
(Jan 27-15:31) mike: a 5 minute close over 96.50 would be a first all day , just missed again , needs a hold up here
(Jan 27-15:35) mike: buying DOG ETF , 12000 dow cash a lid
(Jan 27-15:46) mike: should close near 1301 on sp500 cash. out of Dog if close over 12000
(Jan 27-15:47) mike: 96.50 supp now
(Jan 27-15:55) mike: QID may be better short. on strength tho. have a good day

 

 

Wednesday- January 26, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 26-09:22) mike: sell em to 88 area
(Jan 26-09:29) mike: 92 resist
(Jan 26-09:42) mike: 90.25 r now. 88
(Jan 26-09:47) mike: 90.25 rejected, 88 key supp early
(Jan 26-10:08) mike: mkt ok unless 2302 on NQ breaks
(Jan 26-10:14) mike: 92 supp now, 1294.50-1295.00 resist

(Jan 26-10:21) mike: The gap up open was sold from the 1290.50-1292.00 resistance and the pullback to 1288.25 to fill the gap stalled before turning up and running towards the 1294.50-1295.00 zone. That is key this morning. If 1291.00-1290.50 area is not held, then the next bounce would be a short.

(Jan 26-10:23) mike: 92 is trend up supp now
(Jan 26-10:32) mike: 93.75 supp now. stalled out here

(Jan 26-10:45) mike: 97-98 still possible, trend move into lunchtime or to 2pm before Fed.
(Jan 26-10:49) mike: if 94 doesn't hold on this dip, then trend starts to break
(Jan 26-10:55) mike: mkt lost momentum, t 95-96 area.
(Jan 26-10:59) mike: 94.50 area now resist on a pop up
(Jan 26-11:12) mike: 94.50 rejected, toppy now
(Jan 26-11:22) mike: 91.25small supp
(Jan 26-11:27) mike: if short from near 94.50 cover part 92 or better here, stop at break even on rest
(Jan 26-11:35) mike: 92.50-93.00 resist on bounce
(Jan 26-11:41) mike: 90.50 key , 88 major intrday supp
(Jan 26-11:50) mike: 92.50-93.00 need cleared/ held or back to 92.00-91.50
(Jan 26-11:54) mike: pivotal zone, must get over 93 n hold not fold
(Jan 26-12:01) mike: 91.50 needs held to avoid bigger pullback

(Jan 26-12:11) mike: After the last update the ES ran up to 1296.00 then reversed and dropped to the 1291.00-1290.50 area. That area is key this afternoon. That needs to hold to keep the market out of trouble. Also, 1294.50 needs cleared/ held to avoid topping out.

(Jan 26-12:18) mike: 2 sided mkt, still well bid on dips. but not sticking when ,move stalls. right now bulls in charge as long as 9100-91.50 holds. they aren't to be overstayed though , 94.50 then 97-98 good resist overhead. all averages above trend support. a break under 89.75 would change trends.

(Jan 26-12:56) mike: not sure about audio today. was not able to do this morning, and Fed day can be erratic and fast. anyhow, need to stay over 92 at worst. on top, 1300 SP500 Cash just missed, that 96 area to 98 good resist up there

(Jan 26-13:06) mike: 1294.50 and 12,000 dow cash look key resist.
(Jan 26-13:24) mike: 94.50 rejected , 2 times now. if not cleared and 92 breaks, trend change
(Jan 26-13:46) mike: a post fed drop should reverse and rally back the way this acts
(Jan 26-14:04) mike: 95-96 not liked. a hold over needed, 97-98 resist sould be max on upside, 1301 SP500 Cash on closing basis
(Jan 26-14:28) mike: 94.50 key again.

 

Tuesday- January 25, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 25-09:16) mike: 83.50-84.00 resist 1 , then 85,50
(Jan 25-09:22) mike: if in swing short cover 1/2 on open ,
(Jan 25-09:24) mike: consumer confidence and fed tomorrow
(Jan 25-09:29) mike: 84 r 1
(Jan 25-09:37) mike: top for now
(Jan 25-09:40) mike: 78 area likely if 85 area not cleared
(Jan 25-09:45) mike: 82 key, a move to 85-86 area should fail. confidence number at 10am
(Jan 25-09:54) mike: 85.50 key per earlier. 84 supp must hold on dip
(Jan 25-10:04) mike: 8550 pivotal
(Jan 25-10:07) mike: 88 zone reversed, sell up there, 84 key supp to break soon
(Jan 25-10:19) mike: 84.50 resist, then 86 area.. short bounces
(Jan 25-10:25) mike: 78 area next

(Jan 25-10:25) mike: The lower open reversed from 1282.00 and spiked up to 1288.50 again before reversing. Don't expect a bounce to stick, a decent bounce that stalls would be a good shorting opportunity.

(Jan 25-10:47) mike: 82.50-82.00 dbl bottom needs to hold or they test 78 area.. NQ a better bounce, but 2298-2300 resist there needs cleared/ held. 2293-92 supp there
(Jan 25-11:01) mike: a short w/ tight stop , NQ 2299 resist...
(Jan 25-11:02) mike: 84.50-84.00 supp on a small dip , a break f that the 82
(Jan 25-11:07) mike: breakeven86.5
(Jan 25-11:08) mike: cover 84.50 , tighten stop to b-e

(Jan 25-11:12) mike: 85 area shouldnt be exceeded now, 82.50-82.00 key and should bounce, or its to 78 area
(Jan 25-11:15) mike: 84.00084.50 resist /sell now
(Jan 25-11:21) mike: 1278.50-1278.00 should be tested / broken still if 82.50 not exceeded

(Jan 25-11:29) mike: After the last update the ES bounced from 1282.50 to 1286.50 and stalled before rolling over and making a new low. The 1278 area must be quickly reversed or else the 1274.00 and maybe even 1268 could be seen. The 1284.0-1284.50 should be good resistance on a bounce.

(Jan 25-11:34) mike: ok, 78.25 met. if 81.50 is cleared, a low might be in, just dont expect upside to stick
(Jan 25-11:37) mike: i'll do audio update after lunch time. watch 81.50 for resist, then 84.00-84.50 strong resist. 74 area next supp, if 78 breaks
(Jan 25-12:01) mike: loss of dnside mo, a move to 82 possible here
(Jan 25-12:14) mike: 82 reached. 80.50 supp now
(Jan 25-12:18) mike: a dip should hold near 81.00-80.50...
(Jan 25-12:26) mike: watch 82.50 for trend supp,
(Jan 25-12:28) mike: 1 min chart 9//18 ema trend supp guide
(Jan 25-12:29) mike: that 84.50 should cause stall or dip at least
(Jan 25-12:33) mike: 82.50-82.00 should be supp on dip

(Jan 25-12:49) mike: 82.50 not broken...84.50 not cleared.. if that is cleared/held, then it would leave the door open for 1 more run to 88 area , top of range and key resist up there. mkt refuses to buckle

(Jan 25-12:54) mike: audio update in about 5 minutes
(Jan 25-13:01) mike: quick audio update
(Jan 25-13:19) mike: as long as 82.50 holds, mkt ok, but need a break out over 8400-84.50 to push higher
(Jan 25-13:25) mike: too much of a drop, a short under 84 on bounce
(Jan 25-13:27) mike: 83 area should be sold , 80.50 must hold on further drop

(Jan 25-13:38) mike: After the last update the 1278 area was reversed and then a bounce to the 1284.00-1284.50 resistance was rejected. The 1280.50 is next support, but 1284,50 needs exceeded/ held to change the dynamics.

(Jan 25-13:48) mike: 2 sided day, a dip to 82.50 should hold now , 84.50 resist

(Jan 25-14:00) mike: should roll over, but something holding this up, only IF 84 break/ hold, can squeeze shorts towards 86.50 or a bit higher.
(Jan 25-14:05) mike: pressure on unless 84 exceeded. a bounce back a gift sell
(Jan 25-14:14) mike: nq leading this down, 80.50 a minor supp, 75-74 on break of 78.25 low likely
(Jan 25-14:22) mike: 80.50 resist now
(Jan 25-14:26) mike: 1274.50-1274.00 if 80 not broken/ held
(Jan 25-14:29) mike: 78.50 trend resist
(Jan 25-14:38) mike: 11900 dow cash , 2282 NQ and 1276.25 --- mkt must close over those, or its a red flag for a top, range break.
(Jan 25-14:44) mike: this bounce should fail near 80.50-81.00 if going to test lows , which must hold and a scalp long if reversed
(Jan 25-14:50) mike: 80.50 sold, i'm just avoiding longs
(Jan 25-14:57) mike: audio quickly here
(Jan 25-15:16) mike: 80.50 needs to hold nw , pivotal
(Jan 25-15:28) mike: 83.50 trend up supp
(Jan 25-15:34) mike: 82.00 supp, then 80.50 max
(Jan 25-15:47) mike: 82.50-82.00 holds, mkt stays good over it. 88 area strong resist to overcome
(Jan 25-16:02) mike: 88 reached.... watch 85.00-84.50 overnight for supp. have a good rest of the day

 

Friday- January 21, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 21-09:07) mike: 1283.00-1283.75 ES, 2299.00-2300.50 NQ resist. trends supp 82 area then 80.25
(Jan 21-09:24) mike: 8350-83.00 supp 1 now, needs broken/ not quickly reversed turn down . 1287.75-1288.25 area major area today
(Jan 21-09:33) mike: sell dn to 82.50
(Jan 21-09:33) mike: 84.75 needs cleared/ held
(Jan 21-09:40) mike: 84.75 stop , 82.50 target 1
(Jan 21-09:41) mike: cover part 83.75or better
(Jan 21-09:46) mike: they still vulnerable under 84.75, 83.50 must hold
(Jan 21-09:54) mike: nq f 2298-2300 looks key this morn on upside. 1284 supp on ES on down side.
(Jan 21-10:04) mike: NQ SHORT SET UP, EASIER READ TAN ES THIS MORNING. 1287.75-1288.25 zone and the NQ 2299.00-2300.50 KEY RESIST
(Jan 21-10:12) mike: if 86 is not held, then a top can be in. the 83.50 now major intraday supp

(Jan 21-10:16) mike: The market gapped up ad the ES reached its 1287.75-1288.25 zone and the NQ reached 2299.00-2300.50 zone and backed off. A morning high should be in place, and 1283.50-1282.50 now key support must hold.

(Jan 21-10:23) mike: 80.25 should be seen today , 86 now resist
(Jan 21-10:36) mike: 82.25 low, so far, 8025 in site. nz better short still , good trend.
(Jan 21-10:39) mike: 84.50-85.00 should fail to hold
(Jan 21-10:47) mike: sell with tight stop
(Jan 21-10:48) mike: 84.50-85.00 tested/ rejection, it is pivotal it looks
(Jan 21-10:49) mike: 82.50 s1
(Jan 21-10:49) mike: then 80.25
(Jan 21-11:00) mike: should see 80.25 if 84 not cleared/ held. , if that breaks then 78 area is next, will / should bounce there if not crumbling down. NQ action will lead
(Jan 21-11:04) mike: the next pullback can set up a scalp long, if 82 area holds, should get choppy over lunchtime
(Jan 21-11:06) mike: hold off buying , no stick on bounce
(Jan 21-11:07) mike: 80.25 still target
(Jan 21-11:13) mike: 80.25 target still, 82.50 resist now
(Jan 21-11:21) mike: 80.25 test... .. 82.50-83.00 resist on a bounce now.
(Jan 21-11:30) mike: 82.50 resist, should head down if low not in

(Jan 21-11:38) mike: The ES worked its way to 1280.50, 1 tick from our target, and has bounced a bit. The highs were at strong resistance, and if the 1280 level is not held, then a 123 type top can form on the daily chart. The 1282.50-1283.00 area is key to clear/ and hold/ to avoid another push lower.

(Jan 21-11:41) mike: 78 area next
(Jan 21-11:43) mike: there is that 80.25, it should break
(Jan 21-11:47) mike: 80.50-81.00 now resist
(Jan 21-11:51) mike: 80.50 rejected, the NQ keeps the pressure on, if it breaks 2275 area, then it pulls ES towards 78-77

(Jan 21-12:04) mike: 80.50 needs cleared/ held on a dip. to try a bounce , if NQ lets it selling NQ easier trade sp far
(Jan 21-12:18) mike: noon low again, 80.50 held and is good supp now
(Jan 21-12:24) mike: 84 area pivotal. audio in about 10-15 min, the microphone to the left of my name will show. a push to 85 area possible
(Jan 21-12:34) mike: dont trust this, watch 81 area for supp, must hold there - audio update in 5 min
(Jan 21-13:14) mike: 81 needs cleared, held .
(Jan 21-13:17) mike: 82 can be seen here if 80.25 holds here
(Jan 21-13:22) mike: 82 met, rejected... but a good supp below, so a dip to 81.00-80.50 that stalls ca scalp a long
(Jan 21-13:29) mike: nq too weak, not buying
(Jan 21-13:31) mike: could still bounce, i dont like the risk part in this mkt on long side
(Jan 21-13:38) mike: 83.00, then 84.50 resist up here

(Jan 21-13:43) mike: After the last update was sent, the ES turned down from the 1282.50-1283.00 area and fell to 1279.00, and another bounce to that zone failed and a token lower low was made. The ES got back there and backed off again, as the NQ has lead moves today. That 1282.50-1283.00 area needs cleared/ held to get out of trouble the rest of the day.

(Jan 21-13:56) mike: under 82.50-83.00 - 11880 dow cash mkt is vulnerable to go towards 78.25-77.50 area , need 80.50 to be broken
(Jan 21-14:01) mike: choppy option expiration day. a test of 80.50 again a scalp long IF a stall. reversal
(Jan 21-14:17) mike: NQ Should have trouble getting over 2278 along w/ 83 on NQ/ short under
(Jan 21-14:22) mike: not good action, but mkt holds together unless a break/ hold under 80.50
(Jan 21-14:37) mike: if they pull back to 82 or so, stall, its scalp long. this move may have started too soon to be sustainable into close, more back n forth chop still likely
(Jan 21-14:45) mike: must hold 82
(Jan 21-14:49) mike: 1282.50-1283.00 area needs cleared/ held , not sold as it has all day.

(Jan 21-15:11) mike: this pattern is bearish if 82.50 not broken, and/or 80.50 breaks. thats key end of day. ES still in plus column for the day, but 6 pts off high and having 82.50-83.25 area sold about 5 times. last 50 min on option expiration is a toss-up, and its choppy. - still looks top under 83 level

(Jan 21-15:25) mike: NQ still good short on a pop, a new low close/
(Jan 21-15:27) mike: ES i wedge pattern, breaks if 80.50 goes.
(Jan 21-15:37) mike: have a great weekend , NQ took stops, 80.50 es key. take care
(Jan 21-15:54) mike: if short from higher up, might keep part for swing trade
(Jan 21-15:55) mike: 78.00, then 74.00 key overnight Sunday. then 67.50. then 58 area

 

 

Thursday- January 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 20-09:14) mike: sell bounces per last night, 73 area 1st key
(Jan 20-09:20) mike: selling bounces better odds today
(Jan 20-09:23) mike: 73.00 first key area . 1271.75-1270.75 is very important
(Jan 20-09:37) mike: 1271.75-1270.75 key. 68 on a break
(Jan 20-09:40) mike: 70.75 low... must hold or 68 next. 73.50-74.00 trend resist
(Jan 20-09:49) mike: 74 pivotal now
(Jan 20-09:52) mike: 76 needs cleared to avoid more dn side. bunch of econ data in 7 min
(Jan 20-09:55) mike: 76 is key

(Jan 20-10:03) mike: 74.50 is key supp now, 78-79 good resist
(Jan 20-10:06) mike: short any pop up now, it will fail
(Jan 20-10:10) mike: NQ lead dog, 74.50-74.00 need hold too here or lows tested

(Jan 20-10:16) mike: The ES opened lower and reached the 1271.75-1270.75 zone before reversing and running up to 1278.00. The 1274.50 area is pivotal, a break of that gives a test of the lows. If held then 1278-1279 is a key resistance to clear and hold to get out of trouble.

(Jan 20-10:19) mike: 7250 small supp
(Jan 20-10:21) mike: 74.50 resist now, 68 area should be tested on break of 72 , stay w/ shorting bounces

(Jan 20-10:30) mike: this should fail in here if headed lower
(Jan 20-10:35) mike: 2 sided day after yesterday basic trend day. 74.50 is pivotal still.
(Jan 20-10:42) mike: 74 area will need broken/ held on dip / to get outta trouble, 68 area. NQ leader still 2278-77 key there
(Jan 20-10:47) mike: resist at 73 es, 2282 NQ, audio now

(Jan 20-11:12) mike: After the last update the ES broke 1274.50 and held that on a bounce, then rolled over to the 1268.50-1268.00 support zone. That is a key area t0 hold. If it's not defended then the 1258-1257 area could be tested next. If the 1271.50 level is broken on a bounce, the pressure could be off and the key resistance now at 1274 area could be tested again.

(Jan 20-11:16) mike: 71 rejected, 69.50 need to hold or wedge breaks.
(Jan 20-11:17) mike: i need to be away for a bit. back near noon
(Jan 20-12:02) mike: a dip should hold 70.50 now
(Jan 20-12:11) mike: a move to 73.50-74.50 will be reversed now if a low is not in yet
(Jan 20-12:24) mike: . a pop up that stalls near 73.50-74.50 area. , 11800 dow cash should fail. if not, and 72 holds, they push higher
(Jan 20-12:33) mike: only small dip, 72.50 supp needs to hold now to keep uptrend
(Jan 20-12:47) mike: a dip should hold 73.50, 76 area resist next
(Jan 20-12:51) mike: 74.00 pivotal again
(Jan 20-12:56) mike: mkt bullish over 74. 76 still in cards, then 78 possible if cleared
(Jan 20-13:01) mike: sell a pop now, toppy here
(Jan 20-13:06) mike: 74.50 now resist on a bounce, it should be sold , reversal pattern made or in the making
(Jan 20-13:15) mike: audio
(Jan 20-13:51) mike: they shoulda broke 72.50. as long as that holds , mkt stays out of trouble. if no good set ups, stand aside for now. mkt digesting the first drop in 2 months
(Jan 20-13:59) mike: 76 area resist., then 78 area a dip to 74.50 should hold now.

(Jan 20-14:05) mike: After the last update the 1271.50 level was broken and then 1275.50 was reached. The 1272.50 level held on a pullback and now the market is in a "buy the dips" mode unless 1274 is broken again.

(Jan 20-14:08) mike: 75.50 trend supp. 78 still possible if held
(Jan 20-14:15) mike: stall around 78-79 area, a drop to 76.50 should / must hold now
(Jan 20-14:20) mike: 77 is trend supp must hold or a reversal to 7550 or so
(Jan 20-14:28) mike: 76.75 close. 78.50-79.00 should be good resist., if not rejected. 81.25-82.00 is next. 77 is key to stay over
(Jan 20-14:39) mike: 77.50 small supp, must hold there
(Jan 20-14:50) mike: 1280.00-1280.50 is initial resist from last night . short w/ tgt stop
(Jan 20-14:57) mike: 79.50 shouldnt be exceeded/ held now, trends reverse if 78 is not held.
(Jan 20-15:01) mike: they can push towards 76.50-75.50 before a bounce
(Jan 20-15:09) mike: if short cover 76.50-75.50 area
(Jan 20-15:14) mike: scratch out,
(Jan 20-15:15) mike: ack. 77-76 area is key end of day, must hold
(Jan 20-15:20) mike: theres the 76..50. a short under 78. 75.50-74.50 area key on the drop
(Jan 20-15:29) mike: covert 75.50 or better on this
(Jan 20-15:31) mike: 74.50 and 11800 n dow cash key supp
(Jan 20-15:31) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- January 19, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 19-09:05) mike: holding under 92.00-92.50 is start of bigger pic reversal
(Jan 19-09:34) mike: 1289.50-1288.50 key/ transition zone , sell bounces
(Jan 19-09:49) mike: 89.00-89.50 resist now
(Jan 19-09:51) mike: 1286.50-1286.00 must reverse fast, or test 83 area
(Jan 19-09:59) mike: 1286.50-1286.00 held, 88 would need cleared, then held on a dip, to get a bounce in gear
(Jan 19-10:08) mike: Dow is holding up, 86 area key to hold on ES and 11830 on Dow cash
(Jan 19-10:14) mike: dbl top on Dow stopped ES, this isn't ripping back to upside like it has been, so expect bounce to fail

(Jan 19-10:21) mike: The market opened lower, under initial support, and dropped to 1286 support before bouncing. The market is changing, and under pressure unless 1288.00-1288.50 is cleared and held on a dip.

(Jan 19-10:33) mike: 83.50 a support area, old highs 12th, 13th. 1280.50, then the 76 ara are next, 76 a major area short term. stay w/ shorts , NQ leading lower. 8600-86.50 resist now. . audio on in a few min

(Jan 19-10:53) mike: 83.50-84.00 needs cleared/ held
(Jan 19-11:05) mike: 84 not cleared, 2317 on NQ not cleared. trend dn under those

(Jan 19-11:22) mike: Since the last update the ES rejected the 1288.00-1288.50 zone and dropped to 1281.75 before a bounce. That failed at 1283.50-1284.00 now resistance. It is trend down unless that area is cleared/ held with support at 11818 on Dow CASH, 1280.50-1280.00 on the ES, then major area around 1276 on the ES.

(Jan 19-11:27) mike: the Dow cash tipped off the bounce high at 88 area, it now has to bounce from 11820-11818 area. thats the key to further break down, or another amazing come back on the upside it appears

(Jan 19-11:41) mike: VIXY is a new ETF (mentioned last week )that is a trade on volatility, or VIX moves. its up 5% on this pullback. it can go a lot higher over next few weeks if mkt has a decent pullback, more than inverse ETF .

(Jan 19-11:42) mike: 84 ON ES, 2317 NQ RESIST
(Jan 19-11:46) mike: 82.50 IS a key spot, transition level and channel supp.

(Jan 19-11:58) mike: puts were bought last friday when ES around 83 (gulp) and yesterday ES around 90.50. cover part of that on drop to 81.50-80.50 today, hold the rest for another day or more

(Jan 19-12:09) mike: they been holding under 83.75 / over 82 for 45 min.. dip should/ must hold 82 now
(Jan 19-12:23) mike: unless 84 breaks/ holds, they are vulnerable...
(Jan 19-12:23) mike: need hold under 82 to put pressure on
(Jan 19-12:25) mike: otherwise stuck , 2 hours
(Jan 19-12:30) mike: 80.50 next now
(Jan 19-12:31) mike: 82.50-82.75 resist, 76 area major today
(Jan 19-12:34) mike: 80.50 met, we should see 76 area now if its not defended
(Jan 19-12:34) mike: audio back on a bit
(Jan 19-12:58) mike: IF 80.50 EXCEEDED/ THEN 82 AREA GOOD RESIST TH SHOULD BE SOLD TO STAY TREND DOWN. opps sorry about caps
(Jan 19-13:03) mike: 80.50 obeyed, all the old supp turns resist, opposite of moves on the way up
(Jan 19-13:16) mike: 81.75 shouldnt be cleared/ held or trend dn action is over
(Jan 19-13:18) mike: 20 ema, symmetry, last trapped resist per ebook at 81.75-82.25... key now
(Jan 19-13:26) mike: holding 80.50 keeps mkt out of more trouble, its a key supp now to hold
(Jan 19-13:35) mike: 83.5 was the top of chanel earlier, 81.75-81.25 supp now to stay in uptrends
(Jan 19-13:43) mike: bounce high area on dow cash rejected, 81.50 needs to hold now

(Jan 19-15:12) mike: would avoid longs, a low in last few minutes is possible. bounces not sticking. things changed, 74.50 then 73 area next supp
(Jan 19-15:21) mike: should stay under 79 area now , or a low in place
(Jan 19-15:48) mike: the dbl bottom at 75 should be tested/ broken but probably not today. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Tuesday- January 18, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Jan 18-09:14) mike: 84.00-83.50 supp, 1291.75-1292.50 resist are the low and high overnight... we should stay in that range , 87 area must be defended or 84 seen
(Jan 18-09:21) mike: 87 already gave bounce, needs to hold there
(Jan 18-09:26) mike: 1291.75-1292.50 resist a short
(Jan 18-09:44) mike: 89 needs to hold
(Jan 18-09:49) mike: morning high should be in
(Jan 18-09:59) mike: econ data 15 seconds
(Jan 18-10:01) mike: 88 needs cleared/ held on a dip to avoid test of 84 area
(Jan 18-10:08) mike: 88.00-87.50 supp now
(Jan 18-10:14) mike: 87.50 held. no damage done unless broken now ,

(Jan 18-10:21) mike: The ES reached 1290.50 in the first 10 minutes and that was sold for a drop to 1286.50 where the market got footing and turned back up. A reversal from the 1292 area is likely, but as lonhg as the 1288 area is defended now the market is still ok to go higher towards 1292-1293. If broken, then the move will have topped out.

(Jan 18-10:24) mike: 89.50-89.00 now needs to hold to avoid top
(Jan 18-10:33) mike: a short on a pop up , toppy acting. add to puts if test of 89.50- 90 fails
(Jan 18-10:44) mike: 89.50-90.00 resist now, should fail to clear/ hold if going lowr
(Jan 18-10:49) mike: a break under 87.50 not quickly reversed puts press on... audio in just a bit

(Jan 18-10:59) mike: vulnerable under 88.50-89.00 audio on for a bit

(Jan 18-11:43) mike: 89.50 supp, must stay over that -- if 90.50 cleared/ held then 92-93 possible,
(Jan 18-11:51) mike: toppy, sell 90 or better , stop 91.25
(Jan 18-11:56) mike: it was the Dow, but now it NQ keeping this up. 88.50 SHOULD BE GOOD SUPPORT NOW
(Jan 18-12:01) mike: 90 rejected, 88.50 test likely if 90 not cleared/ held soon
(Jan 18-12:08) mike: 88.75-88.50 scalp out part if short , 91 stop on the rest
(Jan 18-12:23) mike: 90 stop on remaining shorts, it shouldn't be exceeded now to go lower
(Jan 18-12:24) mike: 4.50 pt range, not wanting to break dn yet

(Jan 18-12:31) mike: After the last update the ES dropped to 1287.25 and turned back up and reached 1290.50 again before pulling back. The ES has traded in a 4.50 point range so far, so a break/ hold over 1290 needed to avoid pulling back.

(Jan 18-12:45) mike: as long as 88.75 holds bulls can run this, but need to get over 90.50 -- and hold -- to avoid some toppy looking charts
(Jan 18-13:10) mike: 90.50 reversed 3 times,
(Jan 18-13:18) mike: still toppy timid mkt , but need a break of 89.00-88.50, and more important 87 to turn this into a top. NQ keeping this up, it needs to stay over 2321 area
(Jan 18-13:45) mike: grind higher, but 1291.75-1292.50 key resist, especially on a close. a pop up there should be rejected. 90.50 still must hold or trends start to turn, 88.50 is key supp if they break 90.50 and hold under... a quick comment via audio in a few min.

(Jan 18-13:50) mike: audio now

(Jan 18-16:52) mike: a dip to 90 should be bought , and stay up here. there is earnings after the close. a run up towards 97-98 could yet be in the cards IF ES doesn't break 89 area
(Jan 18-16:52) mike: dow gave up, no longs here, a pop up fails
(Jan 18-16:52) mike: 91.75 should be it for upside. holding puts 1 more day
(Jan 18-16:52) mike: 89.50 held, 88.50 more important but damage not done yet unless 89.50 broken
(Jan 18-16:52) mike: 92.50 should be strong resist, but given recent action as long as 91.25-90.75 holds the melt up will continue ii 90.75 breaks, 89.50 key as its alo 60ema supp
(Jan 18-16:52) mike: 92.50 to 91 supp, the 91-90 area key on close,
(Jan 18-16:52) mike: earnings reports after close. 90.75 still key on close. have a good day,

 

 

Friday- January 14, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jan 14-09:32) mike: be short something, a bounce a gift
(Jan 14-09:35) mike: a run up into 1282-84's that stall an ideal short
(Jan 14-09:39) mike: 78.50 key.
(Jan 14-09:44) mike: a break if 78.50 will turn trends down. 80.50 resist key
(Jan 14-09:47) mike: mich sentiment soon
(Jan 14-10:00) mike: 78.50 reversed. low should be in
(Jan 14-10:08) mike: 80 needs to hold on dip now
(Jan 14-10:18) mike: 82 needs cleared/ held or mkt vulnerable
(Jan 14-10:28) mike: nq needs to break 2303, or mkt holds together
(Jan 14-10:33) mike: NQ holding this up , ES still vulnerable under 80.50 now
(Jan 14-10:39) mike: as long as 78.50 defended , no damage done. just not expecting bounces to stick , 82 area key resist
(Jan 14-10:53) mike: a pullback to 82.00-81.50 needs to hold up here
(Jan 14-10:57) mike: 2308 on NQ key too
(Jan 14-11:01) mike: 81.75 low, 83.00 needs cleared soon or back to 80.50
(Jan 14-11:05) mike: 82.0081.50 now key trend up supp

(Jan 14-11:15) mike: The lower open was reversed and after some quick moves the 1278.50 area was support on a pullback and 1284.75 has been reached so far, the top of the recent range and initial resistance. The 1281.50 area needs to hold now or the stair step higher is over. If 1286.75-1288.00 is reached and reversed, its a shorting opportunity.

(Jan 14-11:16) mike: buy puts up here
(Jan 14-11:16) mike: audio in a few min
(Jan 14-11:22) mike: 82.00 needs to hold or rally reverses

(Jan 14-11:22) mike: audio on now

(Jan 14-12:03) mike: a dbl top, but a break of 82.50-82.00 needed to turn trends.
(Jan 14-12:13) mike: headed to 86.75 or so if 85 cleared, not rejected
(Jan 14-12:15) mike: 84.25 should hold to keep pushing higher
(Jan 14-12:25) mike: 84.50 held so far, thats trend up support now
(Jan 14-12:32) mike: 84.25 keeps stair step higher, 86.75-88.00 area next resist
(Jan 14-12:47) mike: 84.50 must hold or the symmetry breaks , then a bounce a good odds short
(Jan 14-12:55) mike: held 84.50, its key, still trend up. but if broken then trend up changes. if that happens, a bounce that test of the high that stalls is a good odds short up here
(Jan 14-13:10) mike: toppy , losing its bid
(Jan 14-13:22) mike: holding 84.50 so still no damage done yet. 2312 on NQ supp too, if broken 82 then key

(Jan 14-13:27) mike: trend up still in force , amazingly but if 84.50 holds then 86.75-88.00 still possible. . keep any logs on tight leash as they can snow ball if everyone runs for exit at once

(Jan 14-13:35) mike: need to be away 5-10 min, audio on then.

(Jan 14-13:43) mike: After the first update the ES held 1282 and it has been trend up all day. The 1284.50 is the key support to hold now. If that is not defended, then a bounce will likely be sold as that is what it takes to break the trend.

(Jan 14-13:48) mike: audio on for a little bit

(Jan 14-14:00) mike: 87.25 supp
(Jan 14-14:08) mike: 1291.75-1292.50
(Jan 14-14:08) mike: next, 87.50 trend up supp
(Jan 14-14:24) mike: audio off now. 87.50 trend up supp must hold

(Jan 14-14:34) mike: bulls still in charge, getting frothy but a break of 87.50, or more important a break of 84.50 area would be needed to turn trends. A play on VIX reversing, or a pick up in volatility, there is new ETF VIX to use as hedge for that

(Jan 14-14:38) mike: short to 86.50 , or lower, 88.50 shouldnt be exceeded now
(Jan 14-14:43) mike: 88 should be resisted. if pulling back more
(Jan 14-15:02) mike: 88.25 resisted... 87 key here tho still, and 88.25-88.75 good resist now, 91.50-92.50 if cleared/ held

(Jan 14-15:18) mike: as long as 87 hold we stay trend up, NQ won't budge on downside, appl and google earnings next week. . just careful of reversal near 91.50-92.50 if a pop up here before close

(Jan 14-15:26) mike: , sell next pop up.
(Jan 14-15:28) mike: dow dbl top, good offers above, risk/ reward here not great on long side
(Jan 14-15:44) mike: we have had mkt tops around holidays and MLK Jr day monday, , a break/ hold under 87 would cause a flush lower towards 82 or 80 at least
(Jan 14-15:56) mike: have a goodlong weekend.

 

Thursday- January 13, 2011

(time stamps are EST)


(Jan 13-09:11) mike: 1279-78 is key supp, transition zone . audio after first 30-40 minutes
(Jan 13-09:36) mike: pressure on under 82.50
(Jan 13-09:53) mike: as long as 80 is defended no damage done, but test of high should fail
(Jan 13-09:57) mike: if 1 more pop up it should fail , a
(Jan 13-09:58) mike: a hold over 82 needed to avoid trouble
(Jan 13-10:02) mike: high in, under 82 a short
(Jan 13-10:10) mike: 80 now resist.
(Jan 13-10:32) mike: 80 rejected. still in some trouble
(Jan 13-10:57) mike: es ok to get to 81.50=82.00 key area if 79.50 held ,

(Jan 13-11:15) mike: The ES opened lower and after a bounce from 1280 to 1282 failed the 1278 level was tested and reversed. It has been a grind higher since, and unless 1280 is broken the move could get to 1283.50-1285.00 zone before a reversal of trend.

(Jan 13-11:17) mike: 81.25 now needs to hold on dip
(Jan 13-11:26) mike: if 81.25 not held , 80 next
(Jan 13-11:30) mike: 81.25 defended. that is trend supp
(Jan 13-11:41) mike: 83.50 just missed, bids should dry up, its a short on retest, if only a scalp. swing trade here
(Jan 13-11:49) mike: bounce was rejected. a sell zone up there, 2309 on nq
(Jan 13-12:03) mike: downside stall, 81.25 must hold , a test of 83 , 2309 NQ tht stalls / reverses is sell
(Jan 13-12:17) mike: hold off,
(Jan 13-12:17) mike: over 81.25 mkt in bid mode.
(Jan 13-12:23) mike: i'm off this morn... 83 is reversed again. but refuse to drop, so 81.25 is what is most important now
(Jan 13-12:27) mike: nice 123 top missed. need a range break, 81.25 or 83.00 that holds
(Jan 13-12:31) mike: looking like mkt vulnerable to a drop back to 80 or lower unless 83 taken out soon
(Jan 13-12:41) mike: this isn't just a dip, mkt too complacent, this should not come back up so easy. 83 ES. 2209 NQ should be a top of some sort for now
(Jan 13-12:55) mike: headset needs charge, then audio again. bounce failed. a move over 82 could get a squeeze to 83 going
(Jan 13-12:59) mike: this is chop for scalpers or swing trades sit it out otherwise for now
(Jan 13-13:00) mike: be short under 83
(Jan 13-13:04) mike: a snap back to 81.50 is a gift to sell

(Jan 13-13:16) mike: they stalled there a second then blew thru. dow barely budged. a test of 81.50 should hold if going higher
(Jan 13-13:24) mike: 81.50 retest. still vulnerable as bounces not holding + under 83. back in 5 min, audio then

(Jan 13-13:34) mike: The ES held 1280 and pushed up to 1283.00 before dropping back to 1280. That is key now. There may be a reversal from higher up, or even under 1283. But nothing bad happens in this choppy environment unless it's broken and not quickly reversed.

(Jan 13-13:34) mike: audio just a few
(Jan 13-13:45) mike: trouble w/ audio on my end. skip for now. dow cash is doing as expected, stair step lower. not es or nq. tough to read
(Jan 13-13:59) mike: need to hold here, get over 82, otherwise dn they go
(Jan 13-14:01) mike: dow cash needs to get over 11735 to break its down trend line too
(Jan 13-14:11) mike: 60 and 20 ema both at 81.25 now, it was pivotal early, resist now
(Jan 13-14:13) mike: huge bid nq 2203.50 chewed thru , 80.50 now r
(Jan 13-14:17) mike: 74.50-73.00 target , 78 still very key supp, should break today/ tomorrow latest .
(Jan 13-14:33) mike: 80.50 rejected, thats key now
(Jan 13-14:40) mike: large bids at 79.00 and 78.50 magnets it looks
(Jan 13-14:50) mike: 74.50-73.00 zone if press under 78... , 80.50 shouldn't be cleared / held/
(Jan 13-14:53) mike: 79 area resist now
(Jan 13-14:55) mike: dow cash cycling... drop, bounce 20-25 min, roll over. 4 or 5 times now
(Jan 13-14:59) mike: 78.50-79.00 area a transition area. staying under is first reversal sign bigger pic.

(Jan 13-15:10) mike: best bounce by Dow all day. 3pm low, chart looks like head n shoulders top w/ a gap to fill below on 13 min chart if 80.25 not cleared . a dip to 78.50 now must hold to avoid poor close

(Jan 13-15:16) mike: dow still in sync, 20 min bounce stall. need to push thru 80 n hold there
(Jan 13-15:29) mike: not good action even tho dbl bottom. 74.50-73.00 next if this ''pop n flop'' keeps up . have a good rest of day
(Jan 13-15:35) mike: a close under 76.00 is another negative. 74.50-7300 next key supp. pressure on unless 78.50 cleared. good day.

 

I'm sorry there are no logs from Friday December 3rd until Thursday, January 13th.....

 

 

FRIDAY- December 03, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Dec 03-09:06) mike: 18 area r 1
(Dec 03-09:20) mike: puts should pop on open, take 1/2 off
(Dec 03-09:42) mike: 18.50-18.00 must hold , ISM Services 10am
(Dec 03-09:49) mike: 18 held so far, a test of 20.50 should be sold
(Dec 03-09:51) mike: 20 a sell
(Dec 03-10:04) mike: 19 needs to hold now.
(Dec 03-10:06) mike: 22 good r , 19 supp. must hld 19 or top in
(Dec 03-10:18) mike: resist 18.50-19.00
(Dec 03-10:21) mike: resist sold. pressure under 19

(Dec 03-10:28) mike: The lower open was bought and the ES bounced to 1221.50 before reversing. The 1219 area needs cleared to avoid a deeper drop towards 1213 area. If a bounce holds over 1219, then 1222 is good resistance that should be key today if reached.

(Dec 03-10:43) mike: small dbl bottom at 16.25. in a range again, 19 culdn't hold, sign of weakness.
(Dec 03-10:45) mike: 17.50 needs to hold or pattern breaks to downside
(Dec 03-10:50) mike: a bounce sets up excellent short. poor action
(Dec 03-10:51) mike: vix actually down about 6%, there's now no fear at a high, a big red flag
(Dec 03-10:58) mike: if 18.50 holds, a push towards 22 area possible, it will be sold if reached
(Dec 03-11:10) mike: 19 must be defended to avoid rolling over
(Dec 03-11:16) mike: a wedge pattern breaks if 18.50 not held - 11360-11365 a lid on Dow CASH
(Dec 03-11:28) mike: a bounce a good short, 18.59 r, 18.50-20.25 solid ,
(Dec 03-11:38) mike: we should see 1214-1212 area at least , a break of 16 starts it , still a short
(Dec 03-11:44) mike: 18.50 is the mid point of this range and both the 20 and 60 ema on 5 min chart there too right now
(Dec 03-11:51) mike: 18 area solid resist, needs cleared/ held or trouble ahead
(Dec 03-11:54) mike: be short something to 14-13, maybe 1208. but 14-13 at least

(Dec 03-12:04) mike: After the last update the ES popped up to 1220.50 and reversed and for the 3rd time the 1216.25 level was tested. A bounce should have trouble breaking and staying over 1218, but that is what it will take to avoid a deeper pullback this afternoon. Should the ES take out 1218 and run up to 1220 and reverse, that's a good shorting opportunity for a move back to 1218 at least.

(Dec 03-12:13) mike: 15.25 ES, 2180.50 on NQ key support too. the bounce should fail here 18.50 if not going to 22

(Dec 03-12:19) mike: the daily internal gauges are at extreme overbought, vix dropping will set up several sell sigs when it reverses. the 1227.75-1228.50 zone was met/ rejected pre open, that overnight high shouldn't be seen the in this position we're in. if i'm wrong and it is tested, load the boat short as odds would favor sizable 2-3 day drop

(Dec 03-12:42) mike: a dip back to 17.75-17.50 that holds should give a 1 pt scalp long bounce
(Dec 03-12:46) mike: they need quick turn here
(Dec 03-12:47) mike: a better odds on short a bounce , avoid longs for now
(Dec 03-13:00) mike: as long as that 17.75 holds, mkt ok for test of 20 area or higher. a dip back there that holds again a scalp long

(Dec 03-13:16) mike: 18.50-18.00 pivotal still. center of teeter-totter. there is about 2 points above on a hold, and 2 points under that on break/ hold . so 18.50-18.00 key supp now

(Dec 03-13:37) mike: wedge break. 18 held so far but a bounce wil be sold
(Dec 03-13:56) mike: 18.75 now needs to hold to get thru 19.75-20.00 highs
(Dec 03-14:01) mike: 19.50 now good supp.
(Dec 03-14:07) mike: if they pop up 1 more time re add to puts

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(Dec 03-14:35) mike: 19 needs to hold to keep this going

 

 

Thursday- December 02, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Dec 02-09:25) mike: Pending Home Sales at 10am
(Dec 02-09:28) mike: 07.75 then 1211.25-1212.25 is key resist/ 03 key supp
(Dec 02-09:46) mike: 08.50 trend supp
(Dec 02-09:46) mike: 11-12 key r
(Dec 02-09:53) mike: resist rejected, 09.50 key supp
(Dec 02-09:57) mike: 09.50 needs broken to turn trends
(Dec 02-10:02) mike: 1214.75-1215.50 r,
(Dec 02-10:03) mike: 1212 supp on pullback now
(Dec 02-10:08) mike: 14.25 need hold
(Dec 02-10:13) mike: 14.25 held, key now
(Dec 02-10:20) mike: toppy, a drop to 1212 must hold

(Dec 02-10:26) mike: The ES opened higher and reached the 1211.25-1212.25 area and pulled back just 1.75 points before running up again. As long as 1214 is held it is trend up to 1218.50-1219.25, but if 1214 breaks then a tp should be in and then the 1211.50-1211.00 area would be key support.

(Dec 02-10:31) mike: good offer at 16 area, a pop up there again or bit higher a short, NQ needs to hold over 2173 or it pulls es down
(Dec 02-10:36) mike: rejected. but its stuck, the 14.00-13.50 is key to hold, a break of that turns trend .
(Dec 02-10:39) mike: as long as 14 holds, mkt still strong. any short just scalps. bulls in charge unless 14 breaks

(Dec 02-10:42) mike: sell bounce on NQ, buy dip on ES... goofy action
(Dec 02-10:46) mike: if 1218.50-1219.25 is reached, a reversal is likely. , 15.50 needs to hold or that 17 is a top
(Dec 02-10:49) mike: a pop up here to 16.50-17.00 should be sold
(Dec 02-10:54) mike: NQ still dragging, its a better short like yesterday afternoon . pressure on ES w/ it dropping
(Dec 02-11:03) mike: the pop failed under the high, but a test of 15.00-14.50 should hold

(Dec 02-11:11) mike: The 1214 level held and the ES reached 1217.25 so far. The 1218.50-1219.25 zone is still possible as long as 1215.50 is held. A break of 1214.50 that is not quickly reversed would change the market's mood and break the stair step higher.

(Dec 02-11:17) mike: 18.50 rejected, 17.00-16.50 need hold if going to push higher
(Dec 02-11:21) mike: 17 held, its now key. 19.25 resist. then up to 22 area

(Dec 02-11:44) mike: 17.25 held, if you bought a small position in puts yesterday around 1206, add if there is 1 more push higher to 1220. will give ave price near 1213 which should be tested / broken by tomorrow or monday . can trade around it with day trades

(Dec 02-11:45) julie: Starting next week, we will NOT be using this instant messenger room any longer. Please make sure to sign up for the ONE WEEK FREE TRIAL of our NEW LIVE TRADING ROOM. The free trial begins this coming Monday, December 6th and ends Friday, December 10th. If you have not done so already, please Register Now at: https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/499252326

(Dec 02-12:00) mike: a prairie dog reversal off 19.25 resistance, that 19 level rejected 3 times. it should be sold on a test, if not topped already.

(Dec 02-12:01) mike: 17 needs quickly reversed or things changed and 14.50-14.00 next

(Dec 02-12:05) mike: The ES reached 1219.25 resistance and quickly reversed, so there is good supply up there. If 1217 breaks then 1214.50-1214.00 must hold. Bounces are shorts now unless 1219.25 is cleared and held.

(Dec 02-12:07) mike: 17 held. mkt ''comfortable'' holding that. if it breaks and no quick turn up, then it changes
(Dec 02-12:25) mike: these range move have been breaking out higher, this ill be opposite if 17 goes

(Dec 02-12:30) mike: a big stall , rolling over. trouble unless 18.50 exceeded

(Dec 02-12:38) mike: still no damage done unless/ until 17 is broken. as long as that holds the bulls are in charge. shorts are scalps only. a dip to 17 that holds is a buy this afternoon

(Dec 02-12:40) mike: 21 ema on 5 min chart there att 17 now also
(Dec 02-12:41) mike: careful around 19.25 resist, 1222 if not rejected

(Dec 02-12:56) mike: this has m=been a mini repeat of yesterday's action. its a rare occurrence, should be a 2 sided day today. it still could get hit late, but 18.25 supp now needs hold or 17 is tested, thats key.. 19.25 on upside needs exceeded again to avoid reversal

(Dec 02-12:59) mike: hmm, selling bounce for scalp.
(Dec 02-13:01) mike: still in range, 18.50 res

(Dec 02-13:08) mike: pop to 18.50 sold, still in range , 19.50 , 17.00 a big 2.50 points. break down should get steam
(Dec 02-13:19) mike: 04.50-04.00 key supp and in the cards if 16.75 pushed thru
(Dec 02-13:28) mike: 18 area is pivotal. needs to get over and hold it soon
(Dec 02-13:47) mike: 18 NEEDS TO HOLD NOW

(Dec 02-13:50) mike: this thin conditions are far from ideal, so taking a seat on sidelines is ok unless you are scalper. 19.50 area should see bids dry up

(Dec 02-13:56) mike: 19.25 sold again. 18 trend supp

(Dec 02-13:59) mike: they tried to get a run up going, buyers back off , back down to 18.00 supp, shorts cover.... choppy scalp trade in a 2.75 point range...

(Dec 02-14:07) mike: can break out to 22 area if this can hold 19

(Dec 02-14:15) mike: trend and momentum it up , 19 held so far and then 18 and then 17 are both key supp in this range , very extended mkt so those star step supp needs hold , 22 next key r

(Dec 02-14:24) mike: 22 missed by 1 tick. 20.25 trend supp
(Dec 02-14:34) mike: high in, or if tested a 123 type top will form. that 22 area should be strong resist on 1st try , 1224.50 the biggy above

(Dec 02-14:39) mike: After the last emailed update the ES held 1217 and bounced to just under the 1222 resistance. It stays trend up as long as 1219 holds, but a test of the 1221 level that is then reversed could start a reversal if this is not a trend up move into the close.

(Dec 02-14:57) mike: reversed at 21 , it needs cleared to avoid drop to 19.00 or lower
(Dec 02-15:00) mike: 79.00 met. its key now, 20.25 r
(Dec 02-15:27) mike: 21 is good resist end of day. this is strange acting, strong but near high w/o any internal confirmation.
(Dec 02-15:29) mike: 1221-22 zone, then 24.50, and 1217 on down side key late here. have a good rest of the day
(Dec 02-15:45) mike: 21-22 zone sold.. holding 1220 needed or sets up top pattern


 

Wednesday- December 01, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


Dec 1, 2010 9:16 mike: what a change from yesterday. 97.50-98.50 is resist, then 1202 area. 1193.00-91.50 area is first support
Dec 1, 2010 9:41 mike: 1200 REJECTED, 97,50 S
Dec 1, 2010 9:44 mike: 97.50 HELD, ITS KEY EARLY NOW
Dec 1, 2010 9:51 mike: 99 trend supp now eon data 8 minutes
Dec 1, 2010 10:02 mike: sell a pop up tht stalls under 1202 99 must hold

Dec 1, 2010 10:10 mike: The ES gapped up 17.50 points and ran to 1203.00 before backing off. That should be a high, if not then 1205-120, and 1197.50 needs to hold or than 1195 or 1193.00-1191.50 should offer good support.

(Dec 01-10:23) mike: 1200 being sold, short there on a stall. 1201 shouldnt clear/ hold if going to pull back
(Dec 01-10:27) mike: 97.50 sup needs broken now

(Dec 01-10:38) mike: the pullback was feeble, if a move over 1200 that not quickly reversed gets em to 1202 area , 98 the supp to hold
(Dec 01-10:49) mike: a dbl top possible if stall/ reverse 1202 area or under. 1200 now is pivotal
(Dec 01-10:58) mike: short under 01.50
(Dec 01-11:00) mike: the NQ holding this up, a break of 2162 there needs o get a down move rolling

(Dec 01-11:05) mike: The ES pulled back to 1198.25 and bounced to a lower high at 1201.25 and turned down. This range breaks to the downside if 1198 breaks and the NQ weakens and drops through 2162 without quickly reversing back up.

(Dec 01-11:36) mike: no good reward/ risk trades up here. 99.50 now looking key to stay over

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(Dec 01-11:57) mike: 1206 small r, 1208 area key
(Dec 01-12:07) mike: 1205 trend supp. must hold and bounce,
(Dec 01-12:09) mike: 1208 is a short w/ tight stop. need a 5 min close over 1207 to avoid reversal up here now

(Dec 01-12:15) mike: nq giving back, top in, a test or bounce a good short now.
(Dec 01-12:18) mike: 04.00 small supp, 1201.25-1200.75 key and must be defended
(Dec 01-12:34) mike: 1206 touched a short. if pushed thru, a test of 1208 will be sold
(Dec 01-12:41) mike: if 04.50 breaks here should roll over to see if 1203 can hold, if broken the trend day has a dent in it

(Dec 01-12:56) mike: The ES took out 1203 and ran to 1207.75 which is a good resistance area. A test should be sold, but if the 1204 level breaks then it probably won't get there, as the trend up move will be broken and a bounce then is a good short when it stalls out.

(Dec 01-13:19) mike: sell the heck outta them on bounce
(Dec 01-13:23) mike: 05.50-06.00 resist
(Dec 01-13:25) mike: resist sold.
(Dec 01-13:29) mike: 1203 early high is supp that must hold ,
(Dec 01-13:36) mike: pressure on if 03 break / hold . key supp now
(Dec 01-13:54) mike: 06 still resist. 2170 on NQ
(Dec 01-13:59) mike: beige book release in minute
(Dec 01-14:09) mike: cover part of short at 1204.25 or better, stop 1206 , shouldnt be exceeded now
(Dec 01-14:21) mike: if 1208 tested , it should turn back down. 05.50 needs to hold
(Dec 01-14:28) mike: if 04 is tested, must quickly turn up or we get move to 1200 again
(Dec 01-14:33) mike: tricky acting, could get 1 more squeeze higher if 05 holds. if that happens to get to 1210 an stall, a sell .

(Dec 01-14:40) mike: The ES dropped to 1203.50 and bounced. If 1208 is exceeded, beware of a reversal from around 1211-1212. If 1205 is broken then a bounce is a short as then 1203 or lower is in the cards late day.

(Dec 01-14:57) mike: dbl top maybe, a dip to 06.50 if held or stall there should be bought to keep upside from reversal
(Dec 01-15:13) mike: 1204 key supp nd of day, a dbl top , 06.50 r

(Dec 01-15:23) mike: 04 holding, but overnight i'm going to have a small short... gap days are the norm lately. the Trin at .27 is a sign move nt sustainable w/o a pullback

(Dec 01-15:32) mike: a struggle to take out 06.50-08.00 zone, nq weakening. small put position , 1211-1212 is max upside, if not a dbl top at 07.75-07.25

(Dec 01-15:38) mike: into the close, a dip that holds 05.75 keeps door open to get to 07 near close.
(Dec 01-15:46) mike: 07 area sold again, 04 still key supp. puts bought . have a good rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday- November 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 30-09:17) mike: sell bounces, they wont stick
(Nov 30-09:40) mike: under 76 , trouble. Chicago PMI 5 min
(Nov 30-09:46) mike: the 73-71 area held 4 times , if there is a 5th, it should break . 1180.25-1179.25
(Nov 30-10:03) mike: 78.50 needs to hold on pullback
(Nov 30-10:11) mike: 81 high at 20 and 60ema on 5 min chart, rising wedge broke, a bounce will fail
(Nov 30-10:19) mike: 80 reversed. that should be a high , 78.50 needs broken to turn down
(Nov 30-10:26) mike: a dip should hold 80.50-79.50 now , or trend breaks - 83.75-85.00 resist

(Nov 30-10:33) mike: The ES opened 11.75 points lower and tested the 1173-1171 area for the 4th time and bounced back. The trends are up, but if 1180 is broken then the trend breaks. IF 1185-1186 is reached and rejected, it should start a decent pullback.

(Nov 30-10:35) mike: this pattern is bearish, if 82 area tested , stalls, its a short. if 80 breaks, not good
(Nov 30-10:40) mike: should be it, 81.50 r now
(Nov 30-10:45) mike: 80 needs broken , otherwise 82.25-83.00 can be tested
(Nov 30-10:47) mike: broken, 81.50 r now

(Nov 30-11:03) mike: 75.50-74.75 area is key support now. that looks pivotal. 81.50-82.00 resist
(Nov 30-11:06) mike: 81.50 rejected and NQ rejected 2125 area... mkt vulnerable under those

(Nov 30-11:24) mike: if short cover part at 79.25 or better, stop at breakeven on the rest . its 77.50-76.75 that is the key supp area before 1173-1171
(Nov 30-11:27) mike: 81.50 still resist , a hold over 80 needed to avoid another drop
(Nov 30-11:43) mike: if a dip holds 79.50-79.00 again, should bounce and go for high during lunchtime
(Nov 30-11:52) mike: 79.25 area key now

(Nov 30-11:52) mike: After the last emailed update, the ES reached 1183.75 and then pulled back to 1177.50 and turned choppy. The 1177.50-1176.75 zone is key support before the 1173-1171 zone. If not defended, a test/ break of that key support is likely in the cards. A move over 1181.50 is needed to get a push higher, but that will take some work as the bounces are not sticking.

(Nov 30-12:01) mike: the run up from 79.25 is over if 80.50 broken and not quickly reversed.

(Nov 30-12:12) mike: 80.50 quickly reversed but no gusto yet on bounces. the 82.50 should be rejected or the 1183.25-84.00
(Nov 30-12:18) mike: 82 rejected. sell zone up there w/ tight stop

(Nov 30-12:19) julie: Next week (December 6th - December 10th) we will be having a one week free trial of our new live trading room. Our new trading room will be through "GoToWebinar". Beginning Dec. 6th, we will no longer use this current instant messenger room (through ParaChat).You WILL be able to see Mike's charts in our new room and he will be calling out when to enter and exit a trade.

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(Nov 30-12:37) mike: 81.50 reached/ sell up there
(Nov 30-12:46) mike: careful if short , if they go under 80 again, then turn up, scalp a long .... dow 11,000 supp too

(Nov 30-12:58) mike: The ES pushed through 1181.50 but reversed and pulled back to 1179.50 then turned up again. The move has been choppy, but trend up, and unless 1180 is broken and *not* quickly reversed then a move towards 1185 or higher could be in the cards before there is a decent pullback.

(Nov 30-13:08) mike: 83.00-82.50 now supp, key to hold over. 85 area reached, if cleared then 87.50 small resist, then the 1190 level once again. doubt we see that but its possible

(Nov 30-13:17) mike: that 83.50 needs to hold now or trend move over
(Nov 30-13:21) mike: if long covr into this , 84.50 now must hold
(Nov 30-13:41) mike: 123 type top , trend may be over for now. 86.50 needs cleared/ held

(Nov 30-14:06) mike: The ES rallied to 1186.75 and then made a 123 top before pulling back to 1183.50-1183.00 support. That support needs defended or the 1180-1179 area could be seen. If it holds on another test, and the high is cleared, then 1188 area can be tested.

(Nov 30-14:17) mike: 123 top on bigger scale, 83 holding but a bounce a short
(Nov 30-14:26) mike: 82.50 small supp. 1180-1179 area the key supp , then 73-71 if it lets loose

(Nov 30-14:38) mike: 1180 not quite reached yet, but mkt used to always coming back lately. if no move up over 83.00-83.50 longs get nervous, if 80-79 not defended , 73-71 can be seen

(Nov 30-14:48) mike: 83.00-83.50 as far as this should go. on bottom, NQ at 2116-2115 triple bottom, trend line supp

(Nov 30-15:00) mike: The break of 1183.50 gave a drop to 1180.25, and a bounce from there took out 1183.50. It's pretty choppy and fast moves are coming. As long as the 1180-1179 zone holds, the market will stay in its range. A test of the highs will likely be sold so look for a reversal near 1186-1187.

(Nov 30-15:03) mike: 83 is pivotal. a dip needs held there now

(Nov 30-15:15) mike: tthey don't want to stick like a good mkt , but finding a ''comfort zone'' around 1180... a pop up that rejects 85-86 a sell. a test of 80 that reverses a buy

(Nov 30-15:24) mike: end of month lift. watch for reversal near 87.50-88.00 if 1 more pop up
(Nov 30-15:38) mike: need to stay over 83... 85.50 or so will get sold, mkt not liking it up there
(Nov 30-15:41) mike: not going to close well. have a good rest of the day.
(Nov 30-15:43) mike: should go to 79 then try n turn.
(Nov 30-15:52) mike: 79.00 met. 82 area resist now. enjoy the rest of the day

 

 

Monday- November 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Nov 29, 2010 9:13 mike: a gap fill might be as far as a bounce goes, if that. gap days on monday tend to stay in trend in direction of the open... 82.50-83.50 first key resist

Nov 29, 2010 9:23 mike: 1177.75-1176.50 key early
Nov 29, 2010 9:37 mike: 77.50 ES, 11000 dow cash key supp
Nov 29, 2010 9:52 Mike: pressure on unless 1182.50 area exceeded/ held

Nov 29, 2010 9:59 mike: The gap down open was reversed from the 1177.75-1176.50 support zone, bounced to the 1182.50 area and failed and the trend down resumed. The 1172.00-1171.00 zone should break if the 1177.75-1178.50 area is not cleared and held on a bounce.

Nov 29, 2010 10:24 mike: 77.75 just missed. need to stay over 75 to avoid test of low
Nov 29, 2010 10:35 mike: broke 75 by 1 tick. down there look to scalp long. 79.75- 80.50 small r
Nov 29, 2010 10:46 mike: 80 area good r, 77.75-7750 must hold or pattern breaks
Nov 29, 2010 10:48 mike: that looks like a bounce high, a

Nov 29, 2010 10:54 mike: The ES pulled back from 1177.25 to 1174.75 before clearing the 1177.75 level and holding that so far. This bounce should have trouble getting to/ through 1183 so beware of a reversal if reached. If 1177.75 breaks a test/ break of the 1172-1171 is key.

Nov 29, 2010 10:57 mike: 78 resist now
Nov 29, 2010 11:04 mike: watch 7750-78.50 for resist , then another drop
Nov 29, 2010 11:10 mike: 77.50 -78.00 sold, key area now
Nov 29, 2010 11:14 mike: resist cleared. 77.50 now supp , pivotal this morn
Nov 29, 2010 11:25 mike: triangle pattern. 2 failures at/ under 1180. short bounces under 79.50 . a test of low

Nov 29, 2010 11:32 mike: The ES tested the 1180 twice so far while in a down trend. The 1175.50 area has been holding on the pullbacks. For now, selling bounce that stalls below 1180 should give scalp shorts, and if 1175.50 tested/ reversed scalp long. It will take a break of 1175.50 area to do any more damage.

Nov 29, 2010 11:39 mike: if short on last bounce /stall around 78, drop holds 75.50.. ffor now
Nov 29, 2010 11:43 mike: 77.50 needs cleared to take pressure off now
Nov 29, 2010 11:49 mike: 75.50-7600 r now
Nov 29, 2010 11:58 mike: trying to make a double bottom, but 75.50-76.00 needs cleared, held on a dip, not sold into
Nov 29, 2010 12:10 mike: pullback from 78 area should hold 76.00-75.50
Nov 29, 2010 12:26 mike: 1180 area key resist 7725 needs to hold on pullback
Nov 29, 2010 12:35 mike: 77..25 testest,, a short up here tho
Nov 29, 2010 12:39 mike: 78.00 78.50 a short,
Nov 29, 2010 12:40 mike: 79.50 key
Nov 29, 2010 12:43 mike: if 79.50 cleared, dip should hold . vulnerable under it
Nov 29, 2010 12:47 mike: if short cover at 77.50 on part, 79.50 shouldn't be cleared now
Nov 29, 2010 13:02 mike: should turn over soon if its going to
Nov 29, 2010 13:06 mike: 77.25 supp did hold twice , thats key , a break of that rolls mkt over
Nov 29, 2010 13:08 mike: 77.50-78.00 resist now
Nov 29, 2010 13:23 mike: 78 on ES 2125 NQ both key resist here
Nov 29, 2010 13:30 mike: 76.00-75.50 small supp to cover 2nd 1/3 of short / 77.00 resist

Nov 29, 2010 13:35 mike: After the last emailed update the broke 1175.50 on the way to 1173.50 and then a bounce failed at the 1179-1180 zone again. The ES will stay under pressure unless 1179 is cleared and then held on a dip. The 1172 key area needs to hold or 1167.75-1167.00 can be seen.

Nov 29, 2010 13:39 mike: 76.25-76.75 area now resist , 2124 on nq, weaker
Nov 29, 2010 13:49 mike: trying to bottom out, 78.00 resist on ES

Nov 29, 2010 14:06 mike: back near 79-80... 11,000 on Dow cash. 77.25 supp again. this can set up a decent bounce if a test of 77 gets turned up, then push thru 78.50 after that. otherwise, still a short under 79.50-80.00

Nov 29, 2010 14:08 mike: 77.00 held, and must or back to 75 area or lower

(Nov 29-14:19) mike: failed to push thru , so far, 77.75 supp
(Nov 29-14:32) mike: 77.75 held and brekout. to gap fill at 83.00. 1180 area should hold on pulback

(Nov 29-14:38) mike: The ES pushed through 1179 and caused a squeeze to 1183 to fill the gap, and the bulls will be in charge as long as the 1179 area is held. A move to 1186.00-1186.50 could give a reversal but 1179 should/ must hold on a pullback.

(Nov 29-14:51) mike: 83.50-83.00 now sup. , 86.00-86.50 just missed
(Nov 29-15:01) mike: at resist, but still in decent shape if drop to 85 holds
(Nov 29-15:09) mike: should test 85.75 , its trend supp now, 1189.50-1190.25 major today
(Nov 29-15:21) mike: 87.50-87.00 now supp. 89.50-90.50 could be reversed
(Nov 29-15:26) mike: 87 held but 89.50-90.50 should be sold so careful chasing longs up here
(Nov 29-15:30) mike: a move over 90 that turns down thru 90 was a short most of friday, that should be a high
(Nov 29-15:45) mike: watch 86 area overnight for supp, then 82.50 area if not held. on top, 89.50-90.50 then 92.50 area. have a good day

 

 

Friday- November 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 26-09:20) mike: old friend 1200.25 high, old good supp 1182.50 low. that low needs to hold today to stay in this big trading range. 1191.50-1192.50 resist 1


(Nov 26-09:55) mike: 91.00-92.00 R1... 89 trend supp MUST HOLD
(Nov 26-10:06) mike: TOP AT R 1, 89 SUPP KEY
(Nov 26-10:10) mike: 94 NEXT R
(Nov 26-10:14) mike: AS LONG AS 91.25-90.75 HOLDS, TREND UP MOVE . IF BROKEN, 89.50 KEY.
(Nov 26-10:26) mike: TOP , WEDGE PATTERN , BREAKS IF 91 NOT HELD
(Nov 26-10:41) mike: if a test of 92.50 is rejected, a decent pullback occurs.
(Nov 26-10:45) mike: shouldn't get thu 92.50 now, tight stop on short there
(Nov 26-10:49) mike: 98950 or better cover part. stop at break-even on the rest
(Nov 26-10:51) mike: 89.75 or better
(Nov 26-10:52) mike: 91.50 resist. 87.50 next supp

(Nov 26-11:03) mike: take profits on all but 1/3 position at 88.50 or better , a keeper to 82.50 area on that mini swing trade, trail 3 point stop or keep at break-even

(Nov 26-11:12) mike: take all but 1/3 off 89.25 or better , trail stop on rest to 82.50 area
(Nov 26-11:30) mike: 88.50 holding, 90.50 shouldnt be exceeded now if going to 82.50, lower stop. have a good rest of the day
(Nov 26-11:40) mike: 88.50 r now
(Nov 26-11:56) mike: 88.50 exceeded 1 tick, then rejection
(Nov 26-12:01) mike: if a move over 89.50 can stick, a squeeze towards 92 possible. under 89.50 its in trouble still
(Nov 26-12:06) mike: good bid around 87, but no gusto on upside. 89.50 the key it looks. ok, thats all. have a great weekend

 

 

Wednesday- November 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 24-09:16) mike: 1187.75-1188.25 R1
(Nov 24-09:27) mike: 91.25-92.50 if 88.25 cleared
(Nov 24-09:37) mike: this drop must hold 87.50 , another number 955am and 10am
(Nov 24-09:47) mike: 88.00-87.50 supp 1 now , must stay over , 91-92 good r
(Nov 24-09:54) mike: 88 solid so far. 91-92 r

(Nov 24-09:58) mike: 91-92 met , 1 min new home sales
(Nov 24-10:03) mike: 91.50 rejected. 88-87

(Nov 24-10:09) mike: The ES gapped up and reached 1190.75, then the 1188.25-1187.75 zone held and the 1191-1192 was reached. A reversal at 1191.50 might be a top, but if 1188 holds the market avoids trouble. If broken, 1185 gap fill must hold.

(Nov 24-10:11) mike: mkt ''comfortable'' unless 88 breaks, if broken then it gets nervous
(Nov 24-10:13) mike: dont trust this. a pop over 90 that reverses is a short
(Nov 24-10:19) mike: still strong so far, . mkt still has a good bid at 88 area and is ok unless 88 breaks
(Nov 24-10:20) mike: 90.50-90.00 should hold on pullback.

(Nov 24-10:30) mike: as long as a pullback is 3.50 points or less on ES, trend up day possible. 92.50 supp , then91.25- 90.75 max on a dip
(Nov 24-10:43) mike: 93.50 need hold here
(Nov 24-10:46) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18 ema trend guide, 94 now trend supp.
(Nov 24-10:47) mike: god offer above,
(Nov 24-10:48) mike: 92.50-92.00 key supp if break here
(Nov 24-10:51) mike: 95.50-96.00 good resist too, a test could set up a short. 92.50-92.00 very key now

(Nov 24-10:59) mike: The ES took out the 1191.50 high and trend up to 1195.50 so far. That's a good resistance at 1195.50-1196.00 and if 1192.50-1192.00 is not defended on a pullback then that will be a top.

(Nov 24-11:01) mike: longs wanting that 95-96 area to sell, under 94 is vulnerable
(Nov 24-11:10) mike: a little dbl top, but no damage done unless 92.50-92.00 broken. if that breaks, then the dynamics change.

(Nov 24-11:16) mike: its still trend up, but rejection at 95-96 kinda telling, mkt tired up here. careful long here
(Nov 24-11:19) mike: a bounce should fail, longs wanted out 95-96, and if they didnt cover yet, next push should
(Nov 24-11:27) mike: 92.50-92.00 key supp still, a bounce likely wont stick
(Nov 24-11:47) mike: short a pop ,
(Nov 24-11:51) mike: key 92.50, a bounce to test 93.50-94.00 that stalls should be s0ld
(Nov 24-12:01) mike: stalled at 93.75. then pop a little higher, scratch , culd test high but still not hold

(Nov 24-12:08) mike: The ES tested 1192.50 and bounced back to test the high, and this range trade should continue unless they hold over 1196 or breaks 1192.50 .

(Nov 24-12:12) mike: 93..75 needs held

(Nov 24-12:27) mike: its been a slow grind with just a 3.50 and a 3.00 point pullback. thats trend up action as long as a pullback goes no further. however, 1194 breaks is a heads up,, if 92.50 is broken, then a drop to 88 or lower can occur. if 95.50 is cleared, then 97.50-98.50.

(Nov 24-12:42) mike: 94 now key
(Nov 24-12:44) mike: top in for now, bounce a short
(Nov 24-12:47) mike: 94 held so far, a break helps push lower / 95.00-8550 good r

(Nov 24-12:57) mike: should reverse up here if going to break trend up, or break 94 - its key now. and shorts are quick scalps unless a break. small dips still holding

(Nov 24-13:22) mike: 95.50-95.25 a buy on dip now. 98 area next
(Nov 24-13:26) mike: grind higher into the last hour or 98-99 as long as 95.50-95.00 holds - 5 min chart,, 20ema trend guide
(Nov 24-13:42) mike: if 95.50-95.25 is not held, the move could end.

(Nov 24-13:44) mike: nq has to stay over 2161 or its changing
(Nov 24-13:47) mike: nq should be sold if it tests 2164-65
(Nov 24-13:59) mike: they need a push higher w/ some gusto soon, otherwise a decent drop towards 92.50 [now 60ema on 5 min chart] likely

(Nov 24-14:06) mike: a 3 point drop now = that 1194 level, its key then 1192 area bigger supp. must hold, everyone have a great TG. no update until Sunday night. if by chance i'm in my office during trading on friday, i'll let you know here, but doubtful, i need a day off.

(Nov 24-14:18) mike: 95.50 good resist now.

(Nov 24-14:27) mike: The ES reached 1197.00 before stalling and turning down. The dips were 3.50 points, 3.00 points, and 1164.00 is a 3.00 point dip. A break opens the door for a decent drop. If 1197.50-1198.50 is tested and rejected it should give a late pullback. Have a great TG, next update is Sunday evening.

(Nov 24-15:23) mike: bounced off 94.00. a push to 98-99 possible still but careful long up there. its not trend up on nq any longer, . take care

(Nov 24-15:32) mike: can go right to 92 careful

 

 

Tuesday- November 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 23-09:20) mike: 82.50 low pre open, 1177.50-1177.00 is next key area. 87 area initial/ key resist
(Nov 23-09:21) mike: a 10am number and fed minutes, sell bounces , lots of stuck longs
(Nov 23-09:59) mike: 82 resist
(Nov 23-10:04) mike: 1177.50-1177.00 held, if broken the mkt in trouble, 82 area r 1

(Nov 23-10:26) mike: The market had a big down open and fell to the 1177.50-1177.00 zone and bounced. If broken then 1172-1171 is major support below. A move over 1182 needs to hold to avoid trouble.

(Nov 23-10:49) mike: top there at 83, sell under on bounce

(Nov 23-11:01) mike: 82.50-83.00 key, also key, the dips to/ under 80 are being reversed n bid up, that needs to continue or its a break of this pattern too

(Nov 23-11:28) mike: iif 80 not cleared, 1172-1171 major area possible. NQ will lead
(Nov 23-11:34) mike: 78.00-79.00 good resist now, 72 supp
(Nov 23-11:44) mike: if 76 holds another pop towards 78.50-79.50 a short if a stall there

(Nov 23-11:58) mike: After the last update the ES reached 1183 then stalled/ reversed and dropped to 1174.75 so far. The 1179.50-1180.50 area is now resistance. If the 1173-1171 area is tested the market will need to quickly turn back up.

(Nov 23-12:00) mike: 78.50 resist, mis-typed update
(Nov 23-12:04) mike: edge about to break, 78.50 god r

(Nov 23-12:14) mike: they are trying to hold together, 11000 on Dow cash needs to be defended- right now, 78.50-78.00 will need to hold for this to try another push over 80

(Nov 23-12:20) mike: 72.25 there needs to hold and get a push up very soon
(Nov 23-12:34) mike: 80 a sell now
(Nov 23-12:48) mike: if 80 cleared, a pop to 82.50-83.50

(Nov 23-12:56) mike: 80.00-79.50 supp needs to hold to get 1 more push higher, then fail.
(Nov 23-13:06) mike: bounce of 80, should fail
(Nov 23-13:22) mike: fed minutes at 2pm. a pop up should be sold , 83 resist still, 1179 wedge support must hold

(Nov 23-13:34) mike: The ES bounced to 19.75 and pulled back after the last update, but 1177 held 1182.25 was reached. Don't expect upside to stick, we get the Fed Minutes at 2pm and it could give the market a lift but it should set up a reversal trade. The 1179 area is now a key support to stay over.

(Nov 23-13:37) mike: toppy, if another bounce, sell 82-83 area/ 79 must hold or wedge breaks
(Nov 23-13:49) mike: wedge break, 79.50-80.50 area resist
(Nov 23-14:04) mike: good entry at resist, 77 needs broken
(Nov 23-14:24) mike: 78.00-78.50 pivotal resist
(Nov 23-14:31) mike: 78 still r, 76 must hold or low tested
(Nov 23-14:38) mike: a test of 79 area that stalls should give drop to 77 area
(Nov 23-14:52) mike: if 80 is cleared, then turn down, it a scalp short. a pullback need hold 78 to stay if up move

(Nov 23-14:57) mike: The ES dropped to 1176.50 and held there, so it should be a key level to hold to avoid trouble end of day. A move over 1180 that holds over that level is needed to get out of trouble.

(Nov 23-15:03) mike: 78 pivotal, must hold
(Nov 23-15:10) mike: 80.00-80.50 resist. reversal area
(Nov 23-15:20) mike: 80 was reversed , not held. sell area
(Nov 23-15:35) mike: careful long , 80 cant even be cleared/ held thats sell area
(Nov 23-15:36) mike: 78 sill supp to break, a size bid there too

 

Monday- November 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 22-09:13) mike: 1205.75 resist was top overnight. 95.50 now resist, then 98 is key area 1
(Nov 22-09:53) mike: 95.50 resist, 94 must hold
(Nov 22-10:05) mike: 97-98 r
(Nov 22-10:08) mike: 95.50 must hold
(Nov 22-10:20) mike: dbl top at resist, if 95.50 holds they stay outta trouble, , not if broken
(Nov 22-10:34) mike: downside momentum, a pop to 93-94 resist

(Nov 22-10:35) mike: The lower open was reversed and the ES went to 1197.50 resistance area and double topped in the first 40 minutes. A bounce will be sold and 1195 area look pivotal this morning.

(Nov 22-10:44) mike: if they pop up to 94 area it should reverse back dn, a move over 91.50 needed to avoid trouble down here
(Nov 22-10:47) mike: 1188.50-1187.50 should get tested if 91 not exceeded
(Nov 22-11:00) mike: a small dbl bottom but no gusto on bounce, 91.5-92.50 a short
(Nov 22-11:05) mike: 87.50 must hold or 1183.00-1182.50 in the cards. 91.5-92.50 shouldn't be cleared/ held on bounce. 90.50 small resist 1

(Nov 22-11:16) mike: feeble bounce stuck just over 90.50, lower lows bought, 92.00-92.50 trend resist , shouldn't break/ hold , but a trading range if thats exceeded

(Nov 22-11:21) mike: 92.00 missed by 1 tik. 90.50-90.00 supp , key here
(Nov 22-11:29) mike: 90.00 held, mkt avoids trouble if that holds here and 92 area cleared .
(Nov 22-11:33) mike: 92 looks like a lid, not going to break that if the lows are to tested during lunchtime action
(Nov 22-11:45) mike: 91.75 stall, a dip to 90.75 needs reversed

(Nov 22-11:51) mike: The ES dropped to the 1188.50-1187.50 zone but this bounce is stalled under 1192.00-1192.50. A break over that takes pressure off unless it's quickly reversed.

(Nov 22-11:59) mike: channel between 92 n 90. mkt holding in, need break-out and a hold
(Nov 22-12:03) mike: broken. 90.50-91.0 now r
(Nov 22-12:09) mike: trapped longs above, 90.50 -91.00 good resist 1 still/
(Nov 22-12:14) mike: if 88.25 breaks, a snap back likely
(Nov 22-12:23) mike: 90.50 good re entry, a test of 87.50 could reverse
(Nov 22-12:25) mike: 90.50 on ES and 2138 on NQ are key on a bounce now
(Nov 22-12:28) mike: 88.00-89.00 zone resist now, then 90.50 key. oppposite day of friday
(Nov 22-12:42) mike: watch 86.50-87.00 area on a bounce. i'll do audio update around 1:30pm ,
(Nov 22-12:45) mike: gap on daily chart 1182

(Nov 22-12:51) mike: 1183.00-1182.50, it must hold now or 78-77 area next
(Nov 22-12:52) mike: 86 now key resist to break/ hold or still trend down
(Nov 22-13:03) mike: stall just under 86 resist, must clear/ hold to get move towards 87.50-88.00 , then pullback again

(Nov 22-13:18) mike: The ES stayed under 1192 and dropped to the 1183.00-1182.50 sopport before turning up. The 1187.50-1188.00 area is trend down resistance. A test of the lows needs reversed quickly or 1177 area could yet be seen.

(Nov 22-13:23) mike: audio on in 5 min. 86 area resist still
(Nov 22-13:25) mike: audio updates for a while

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Nov 22-14:10) mike: 88 must hold
(Nov 22-14:10) mike: the 89.50-90.50 good/ key

(Nov 22-14:24) mike: 90.50 key supp again, 95 key above.
(Nov 22-14:31) mike: 92.00-92.50 looking very key
(Nov 22-14:32) mike: 88.00-87.50 key supp too

(Nov 22-14:43) mike: The 1187.50-1188.00 area was cleared/ held and 1192 got tested. As long as 1189.50 holds the trends stay up, if broken then 1188 is key and must hold end of day.

(Nov 22-14:47) mike: 95 should be tested, mkt ok on dip to 92 , should/ must hold now

(Nov 22-14:57) mike: 92.00-91.25 supp, will be tested if 94.50-95.00 rejected
(Nov 22-15:01) mike: 95 key, then 97.50-98.00
(Nov 22-15:09) mike: 95 area rejected, 93-92 area should hold or 90 area ,
(Nov 22-15:15) mike: 92.75 low, that key now,
(Nov 22-15:25) mike: a move over 95 needed or stay in big range
(Nov 22-15:34) mike: nq a big edge, es top at resist an supp broken, 1190.50-90.00 needs to hold to not break down again, 93.00-93.50 r
(Nov 22-15:43) mike: 94.50-93.50 good supp if a dip there,

 

** I'm sorry there is no log for Friday - November 19th. I did not have a chance to save the log that day as I was out ~ Julie**

 

Thursday- November 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Nov 18-09:18) mike: 90.50 resist, then possibly 1194.75-1195.75 gap fill on ES, thats a short if reached and stall/ reverse in first 40 min. more econ data 10am

(Nov 18-09:43) mike: 89.50 must hold
(Nov 18-09:49) mike: 1194.75-1195.75 key, 91 supp
(Nov 18-09:55) mike: next bounce a short , high in or will be on news in 5 min
(Nov 18-10:08) mike: 1194.75-1195.75 sold, a drop to 92.50-92.00 supp needs held , 89.50 key
(Nov 18-10:12) mike: 97.50 small r, then 1202. 94 area supp , pivotal
(Nov 18-10:17) mike: 97.50 rejection, if 96 breaks, trends turn.
(Nov 18-10:22) mike: need a bounce off 95.50 or starts rolling over towards 94,

(Nov 18-10:27) mike: The gap up open was sold from the 1192.50, but the 1189.50 prior resistance was solid support and the ES reached 1197.25 so far. The 1202 area is the next resistance, but the 11195.50 level needs to hold to stay in uptrends.

(Nov 18-10:35) mike: 97 supp now must hold
(Nov 18-10:39) mike: lost momentum, 97 must hold
(Nov 18-10:48) mike: 96.75 reversed. gap day, trend day, just need to hold around 97 or is back to 94 area
(Nov 18-10:56) mike: 98 needs cleared/ held or roll over here

(Nov 18-11:06) mike: This grind higher is not damaged unless 97 breaks, but NQ top and 1199 old key supp. if this is going to reverse it should here

(Nov 18-11:09) mike: sell 97.75-9850 if reached
(Nov 18-11:23) mike: 95.50-94.50 zone pivotal on a pullback, , 97.75 is as far as bounce goes before reversing if a high in
(Nov 18-11:36) mike: 97.75 rejected 1st time. this could stay in a range like yesterday unless 1195.50 breaks/ holds or gets over 1199 and stick
(Nov 18-11:51) mike: the gap from tuesday down day filled easily, the gap below 88.50 and 82.00 should be filled before end of month
(Nov 18-12:07) mike: ES stay over 95.50, nq got wings and lead ES up , trend up still, tho choppy. scalp long on dip tht holds 96 or higher

(Nov 18-12:40) mike: if there is a pop up to 1199 and it reverses, its a short. this is tired, it doesn't have a lot more upside , NQ mini parabola too

(Nov 18-13:01) mike: 99 rejection. for now. stop at 99.25 if short, the 20ema on 5 min chart needs broken or trend up continues. 98.00-97.50 need hold supp

(Nov 18-13:08) mike: 98.00-97.50 held but NQ broke down, ES should follow
(Nov 18-13:21) mike: 97.50 held. a scalpers mkt, 97 need to hold to stay trend up mode. NQ toppy, needs hold 2140
(Nov 18-13:32) mike: lots of rejection 98.50-99.00, short under it
(Nov 18-13:56) mike: a fake out on pop up, 97 need hold, or 94 area or so,

(Nov 18-14:11) mike: if you sold 98 after suggested be short under 98.50, cover 97 or better, or keep stop at 99.0, it shouldn't be seen if going lower. , this could last until last hour

(Nov 18-14:21) mike: if 96 breaks and not reversed, 94 area, then 90-89.50 are key supp/ 97 now resist
(Nov 18-14:43) mike: things changed, a bounce off 94.50 possible but 97 good resist now
(Nov 18-14:50) mike: stronger than thought, pull back to 97.00-96.50 area should bounce if going higher
(Nov 18-15:22) mike: if they bounce to 98 area again, its a short
(Nov 18-15:47) mike: 96 resist
(Nov 18-15:54) mike: mkt transition end of day. a decent bounce will be sold
(Nov 18-15:54) mike: have a good day

 

Wednesday- November 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Nov 17-09:23) mike: 1179.25-1180.50 ES, 2100.75-2101.50 NQ both sold pre open ,, key for the day
(Nov 17-09:46) mike: 76.00-76.50 resist
(Nov 17-09:50) mike: pivotal supp 75.50,
(Nov 17-10:14) mike: 79.00-78.50 now must hold or trend reversal
(Nov 17-10:20) mike: losing momentum, 79 must be defended

(Nov 17-10:24) mike: The ES opened higher and was sold down to 1173.50 in the first 15 minutes and reversed up and the oversold bounce got started. It should be a 2 sided day, look for 1178 area to be pivotal on a dip.

(Nov 17-10:30) mike: 80 supp, a reversal if broken
(Nov 17-10:34) mike: 1183.50-1184.50 area key , mkt topping here
(Nov 17-10:37) mike: 79.00-78.50 small supp
(Nov 17-10:46) mike: 79 held. a 123 top possible up here
(Nov 17-10:54) mike: if 79 breaks, then a bounce a sell as 76-75 would be in the cards. its vulnerable under 80.50-81.00

(Nov 17-11:08) mike: The ES rejected 1182.00 and lost its upside momentum, starting a pullback to 1178 so far. This isn't good action, and the ES reversed from under the 1183.50-1184.50 resistance so sell bounces as the 1175 or new lows is likely.

(Nov 17-11:14) mike: a little reversal up , but a stall near 80.50 should be sold
(Nov 17-11:31) mike: top of range , dow cash 3 tops ,
(Nov 17-11:50) mike: short 79.00-79.50 , mkt top just above
(Nov 17-11:53) mike: scratch out
(Nov 17-11:55) mike: they flew up off 78, had been bounce/ stall/ turn down... , dips should hold
(Nov 17-12:15) mike: need to stay over 79.50,

(Nov 17-12:22) mike: if there is a pop up to 81-82 area and stalls out, get short for a 2-3 point dip. if they drop to 78 and reverse, scalp a long back towards 79.50-80.00..... a scalpers mkt today

(Nov 17-12:30) mike: mkt can not hold gains. under 81-82 the mkt is vulnerable... lethargic action. chop, digesting action, typical after big days like yesterdays big move

(Nov 17-12:38) mike: After the last update the ES bounced to 1181.25 and tested 1178.00 on the drop. This sideways chop is typical after big moves like yesterday. Look for a short if the 1181-1182 area is tested/ rejected and scalp long if 1178 is tested and use a very tight stop, as the market is vulnerable under 1181.

(Nov 17-12:46) mike: held at 78.50. still vulnerable under 80 ,
(Nov 17-12:59) mike: 80 rejected, worked into a triangle pattern. sell bounce

(Nov 17-13:06) mike: both longs and shorts want to see 1180 test again. / key here at 78, 2102 on NQ, 3 tests bought, if broken mkt back in trouble

(Nov 17-13:16) mike: 2 point range..... 78 supp, 80 resist, a break/ hold over 80 could get a squeeze going..... 2 more pts too test 1182. - a ''no position is a position'' , scalp or stand aside untll break out holds

(Nov 17-13:17) mike: no audio today do to chopp, i will tomorrow.
(Nov 17-13:35) mike: a hold over 80 keeps upside i gear , its pivotal

(Nov 17-13:41) mike: The ES bounced 3.50 points from 1178.00 to 1181.50. That 1178 area needs to hold or the downside will gather steam and change the sideways chop into a trend.

(Nov 17-14:16) mike: mkt trying to hold, but its a short 80.50-81.50
(Nov 17-14:17) mike: a bounce off 78 possible / won't stick tho
(Nov 17-14:39) mike: bounce off 78.25 , but must hold 79.50 and get thru 1180.59 and keep going, not reverse again.
(Nov 17-14:45) mike: 79.50 need hold..

(Nov 17-14:54) mike: mkt doesn't like it up there. oversold, had every chance to get going, but didn't , to now... that's not encouraging for bullish respit from the selling

(Nov 17-14:56) mike: so, mkt a short and a gift if 80-81 tested 1 more time and stalls/ reverses
(Nov 17-15:00) mike: 78.50 probed 6 times and held. a break puts pressure on.
(Nov 17-15:05) mike: nq broke, its a short at 2104-06 -- looking for 76.00-75.50 ona break of 78 for ES. 79.50 is pivotal
(Nov 17-15:11) mike: 76.00-75.50 just missed, so far, 7800-78.50 resist now
(Nov 17-15:21) mike: 78 sold. 76.00-75.50 needs to hold end of day , 1 tick miss on last drop
(Nov 17-15:25) mike: target met. its still vulnerable under 78, stay w/ shorts until something changes
(Nov 17-15:28) mike: The 1178 was broken and held on a bounce, and lows tested but is in trouble still if 1176.50 not exceeded.

(Nov 17-15:39) mike: dbl bottom made w/ 30 minutes left. a short covering bounce, mkt is ok if 76.00-75.50 not broken . have a good rest of the day

 

Tuesday- November 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Nov 16-09:08) mike: 1188.50-1187.50 was tested pre open and bounce was feeble. 92 resist 1 is key, then if exceeded the 1194.75 fills gap. a decent bounce a short.

(Nov 16-09:22) mike: 1188.50-1190.00 area resist now
(Nov 16-09:36) mike: 1182.50-1181.50 needs to hold or big trouble. 88.50 resist, 92 area big
(Nov 16-09:54) mike: 87.00-87.50 resist
(Nov 16-10:00) mike: 87 rejected
(Nov 16-10:00) mike: needs exceeded/ held on a dip or trouble

(Nov 16-10:11) mike: The ES gapped down and reversed from 1184.75 just 5 minutes into trading then popped up to 1190. The first bounce was sold and the lows were tested. That 1184 area needs to hold or 1178-1177 would be next. There is resistance at 1191.25, then 1194-1195 if the ES doesn't reverse from 1188.50 support now resistance.

(Nov 16-10:18) mike: dbl top, 87.00 looks pivotal on dip
(Nov 16-10:26) mike: choppy action, a bounce to 87 should fail
(Nov 16-10:28) mike: 87 still pivotal,
(Nov 16-10:36) mike: 1182.50-1181.50 major, 78-77 if broken

(Nov 16-10:46) mike: The ES made a lower high at 1189.25 and turned down and then 1187 turned into resistance on the way to 1181.25 so far. That is 1 tick under the 1182.50-1181.50 zone but no gusto on a bounce. It's trend down unless the 1185.50 area is broken and 1178-1177 is next key support.

(Nov 16-10:52) mike: good resist at 1185.50-87.00. a feeble bounce to that area is a short for test of lows
(Nov 16-11:01) mike: a decent bid around 80.50 area. a move to 83-84 should be sold if staying trend down
(Nov 16-11:06) mike: if 78-77 breaks, then 72 next 1167.75 major
(Nov 16-11:10) mike: ugly mkt, a bounce to 1180.50-81.25 should be sold
(Nov 16-11:14) mike: major area, feeble bounce. a pop up to 81 area - tht stalls is a short

(Nov 16-11:25) mike: The break of 1181 opened an air-pocket and ES dropped to 1175.50 so far. All of the bounces are feeble so far, so trend down day continues unless the 1180.50 area is exceeded.

(Nov 16-11:31) mike: the breadth is like what we get on mini crash days. not far from a capitulation low, or decent bounce to occur. watch 77.50 or so for supp,

(Nov 16-11:40) mike: a 123 bottom, double bottom attempt. i'm staying shorts until trends change, 79 area now looks key

(Nov 16-11:44) mike: after my lunch i'll turn on audio . right now, mkt still trend down under 79. the 1167.75-1164.50 zone is all thats in the way of mini crash day

(Nov 16-12:11) mike: After the last update the ES made it to 1178.75 and then dropped to a new low at 1172.25. That 1172 area was the transition area to the upside and is key to hold. If it breaks then 1167.75-1164.50 zone would be next. Resistance is at 1178.50 and needs exceeded to put a dent in the downside pattern.

(Nov 16-12:30) mike: stuck between 77.50 n 74... audio on now for awhile

 

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...


(Nov 16-13:02) mike: audio off , a dbl bottom possible. 74.50 must hold on a dip. 77.75 good resist on sell ide
(Nov 16-13:23) mike: things change if 76.50-77.50 dbl top cleared , 11000 on dow cash holds

(Nov 16-13:43) mike: The ES made a double bottom at the 1172.50 level and bounced. If the 1176.50-1176.00 area holds, a low could be in place. A move to the 1180.50 area that stalls out should start a pullback to test that area.

(Nov 16-13:59) mike: a short near 79.00-80.50 for test of 77.00-76.50 or lower.
(Nov 16-14:05) mike: entry missed , a test of 79 a sell
(Nov 16-14:09) mike: 76.50 target is a supp, if it and 75 brakes, a quick reversal needed to avoid bust of low

(Nov 16-14:14) mike: The ES bounced from 1175.50 to 1179.25 and was rejected. The move is making a wedge pattern so the 1176.50 area needs to hold to avoid another break down.

(Nov 16-14:20) mike: wedge break, a bounce should fail at/under 77.50

(Nov 16-14:35) mike: fast moving, . bounce failed at 78, over 77.50., then reversed. under 76.50 pressure shoul be on. audio on for a bit in 5 minutes or so,

(Nov 16-14:37) mike: audio is on

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Nov 16-15:11) mike: sell a pop , nq leasing and supp at 1174 must hold or lows can break
(Nov 16-15:16) mike: 67.75 next key supp
(Nov 16-15:19) mike: 73.00 resist, then 74.50
(Nov 16-15:29) mike: 74.50 tested, on dip now, supp 72.50, cover shorts and scalp long at 73.00-72.50 zone if they get there n stall,
(Nov 16-15:32) mike: didn't get all the way there, 7300 but not 72.50. if long scratch it
(Nov 16-15:44) mike: key spot end of day.
(Nov 16-15:45) mike: 76.50 should see
(Nov 16-15:46) mike: 74.50 supp, pivotal
(Nov 16-15:51) mike: another wedge end of day. 74 area is key, 76.50 a sell. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday- November 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 15-09:14) mike: 1202.00-1202.50 sold on retail sales. 98 area support now, pivotal early
(Nov 15-09:42) mike: 1202 pivotal, must hold
(Nov 15-09:48) mike: top for now
(Nov 15-09:48) mike: 99 test
(Nov 15-09:55) mike: 01.75 resist, nq leader
(Nov 15-09:57) mike: Business Inventories in 2 minutes
(Nov 15-09:58) mike: 99 should test

(Nov 15-10:09) mike: The early strength was sold 12 minutes into trading and the market is pulling back to the 1197 area. Bounces will fail as long as the NQ stays weak, so short them to the bounces towards 1194 area or lower. The 1201.50 area shouldn't be exceeded/ held to stay in downtrends.

(Nov 15-10:14) mike: 99.50-1200.25 resist 1
(Nov 15-10:37) mike: 1200.00-1199.50 supp must be defended
(Nov 15-10:49) mike: sell, top over 02.50
(Nov 15-10:50) mike: 1200.50 key on pullback
(Nov 15-10:53) mike: scalp out part 1200.50 , 1202.25 stop on rest for now

(Nov 15-11:01) mike: if 1200 break / hold then 98.50-97.50 test would be next . 1202.50-1203.50 dbl top area needs cleared held to break towards 1207-1208

(Nov 15-11:20) mike: The ES bounced to 1202.25 but didn't hold and a pullback to 1199.00 occured so far. The market is choppy and range bound as the oversold status is battling downside momentum. The NQ has been leading the moves this morning, and as long as its 2130 area holds then the market will stay out of trouble, along with 1199 on the ES. A break/ hold over 1202 could open the door for a move towards 1207-1208 but that would be a short if reached and the move stalls out.

(Nov 15-11:36) mike: a wedge/ triangle, bulls in charge unless 1200 breaks and not quickly reversed
(Nov 15-11:48) mike: a dip no should hold 03.00 area at lowest, 07.75-08.50 good resist
(Nov 15-12:02) mike: 1 min chart, 18ema is trend supp, 1204.50 now is key
(Nov 15-12:06) mike: 03.00-02.50 must hold or it rolls over. if a push to 1207.50-08.50 stalls, its a shor
(Nov 15-12:11) mike: a bounce off 02.50 , to 04.50 or a bit higher a short
(Nov 15-12:14) mike: The 1202.50 was broken and 1205.75 was reached. A 123 top gave a dip to 1202.50 which must hold or a top is in for awhile.

(Nov 15-12:50) mike: stair step higher today after first 40 minutes. if they dont take out 1206 on this bounce, or break 1202 again and not turn up fast, a decent pullback can occur.

(Nov 15-13:01) mike: a short
(Nov 15-13:02) mike: 02.50 supp test
(Nov 15-13:07) mike: the 1202.50 met. toppy acting, sell bounces that stall near 04-05

(Nov 15-13:20) mike: The ES dropped under 1202.50 and the bounce that followed failed at 1204.50 and now the 1204.50-1205.50 is key resistance today. If it is cleared, then the 1208 area would be a spot for a reversal to happen. If the 1202 area breaks, then a test of 1199 should hold on the pullback, otherwise there would be trouble. Dips that hold 1202 are scalp longs, and the bounces that stall are shorts.

(Nov 15-13:29) mike: nq leading it up this afternoon. should pullback , as long as 1202 holds the ranges still in.

(Nov 15-13:53) mike: bulls in charge, but its buyers boycott and exits at 1205, buyers pull bids and dn they go. then longs come in at a better price and run it up.... so, 03.50 must hold or that changes

(Nov 15-13:59) mike: sell em under 1205.50. rolling over, no quick bounce , tho they tried
(Nov 15-14:00) mike: 02 key

(Nov 15-14:06) mike: The ES has been stuck between 1205.25 and 1202.25 for some time now. The 1205 area needs exceeded/ held to avoid an afternoon pullback... Or test 1202 and turn right back up. A short under 1205.50 looks better odds at this time.

(Nov 15-14:09) mike: about 1 point risk breaking out over 1205.25 , all day unable, vs a lot on dnside possibly
(Nov 15-14:21) mike: 02.75 r now'
(Nov 15-14:28) mike: a bounce to 02.50-03.00 that stalls is a good short/ reshort
(Nov 15-14:33) mike: pressure on under 1201.25
(Nov 15-14:34) mike: 97 target,
(Nov 15-14:58) mike: tight stop on short, 1203.25. 1201.25 looks pivotalon a dip
(Nov 15-15:10) mike: scalp out of short if didnt already. that 02.50-0300 still resist

(Nov 15-15:17) mike: After the last update, the ES stalled and rolled over from 1205 and took out 1202, and is a short still now on bounces under 1203.

(Nov 15-15:33) mike: 30 min left, 98.50-99.50 needs cleared/ held or low at 92 test in morning

(Nov 15-15:41) mike: shorts covering at lows w/ under 30 min left. that 97.00-96.50 should be defended - if not, then a test of 1190 are before reversing

(Nov 15-15:44) mike: feeble bounce to resist... have a good rest of the day

 

Friday- November 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Nov 12-09:15) mike: 2 sided , sell a god bounce day. test of 1202 dbl bottom needs held
(Nov 12-09:27) mike: sell bounces , cover the 1/2 puts still on down here, or trail stop . we could see 1194-1192 if 1202 breaks/ holds
(Nov 12-09:37) mike: 1206 / then 08 area resist
(Nov 12-09:48) mike: 1193 i've been talking bout reached overnight. mich sentiment soon, 1202 need hold or that 1193 possible
(Nov 12-10:01) mike: high, 05.50 s
(Nov 12-10:05) mike: 05.50 broken a pop here a short near 07-08

(Nov 12-10:11) mike: The lower open held just over 1202.00-1201.75 and bounced to the 1208.00-1208.50 zone and sold off. The 1193 key level for this leg was met overnight. If 1202 is broken/ held then a test is possible. The bounces are shorts under the 1208.50 pivotal area.

(Nov 12-10:18) mike: that burst off 04.75 was out of nowhere, but resist sold. a dip back to 04 area must hold now
(Nov 12-10:24) mike: be short under 1208.50 pivotal area. still poor action. a decent bounce will be sold
(Nov 12-10:42) mike: THE 99.50-99.00 target met. if they stay under 1203, still trend down

(Nov 12-10:50) mike: After the last update the ES popped up to 1208.25, stalled and reversed to drop to the 1199.50-1199.00 support on the ES. If 1204 is not exceeded/ held, the trend move will still be in gear and the 1193 area is the key support on this leg now.

(Nov 12-11:11) mike: 98.50 resist, 1200 then 1202 area the key areas if more than feeble bounce
(Nov 12-11:16) mike: 1200 needs cleared, then hold on a dip, to get some pressure off. its still down unless tht happens soon
(Nov 12-11:25) mike: low in for awhile, 1202 the first key area. , 99.50 needs to hold
(Nov 12-11:38) mike: not able to clear 1202,,, nq turned dn at resist there
(Nov 12-11:49) mike: still in trouble under 1202... nq a dbl top 2150 area resist too
(Nov 12-11:52) mike: 1193 still in the cards under 1202. a dbl bottom possible, but stay w/ shorts under 1202

(Nov 12-11:56) mike: The ES bounced to the 1202 break down area and stalled/ reversed and trend down continues. Look for 1194-1192 if 1200 is not cleared now.

(Nov 12-12:14) mike: 99.50-1200.00 slinky. the 20ema on 5 min at 1200 , its been guide for dn trend
(Nov 12-12:15) mike: a break of 96.50 gets em to 1193
(Nov 12-12:21) mike: if you are not short, a bounce to 97-98 should fail, then go to 93 area.
(Nov 12-12:32) mike: 93.50 close enough. for now. 95.50-96.25 resist
(Nov 12-12:35) mike: 88 is next
(Nov 12-12:40) mike: 95.50-96.25 resist, but low a good supp, careful being aggressive short dn here. higher levels tho, yes
(Nov 12-12:48) mike: 95.50 rejected
(Nov 12-12:48) mike: The ES reached 1192.50 and bounced, but its still trend down unless 1196 is cleared and held.

(Nov 12-12:59) mike: 2 min chart 15 sma per ebook guide, still., 94 resist
(Nov 12-13:06) mike: bounces are 3.50-4.25 points, those are shorts,
(Nov 12-13:15) mike: they trying to firm up at 93 area, , a dip tht holds 93 keeps mkt from going under 1190
(Nov 12-13:21) mike: not good actio. no longs until trends change. 94.50 = 20ema on 5 min
(Nov 12-13:29) mike: 95.50 again resist on this bounce, a low in for a bit tho it looks
(Nov 12-13:43) mike: 96.50-97.00 area, the last trapped before break to 93 area. thats a transition area
(Nov 12-13:45) mike: 94.50 needs to hold or roll over
(Nov 12-13:51) mike: 94.50 held, it looks like must hold over that. , plus get thru 96.25-97.00
(Nov 12-13:52) mike: otherwise lows can be tested
(Nov 12-13:56) mike: The ES bounced to 1196.25 and turned down so lows can be tested. If no double bottom, 1188-1187 is next support.

(Nov 12-14:03) mike: 94.00-94.50 resist.
(Nov 12-14:31) mike: 96 obvious still good resist. sell under. bigger pic damage done , 123 top in

(Nov 12-14:46) mike: we had rally off supp on open, then a sell around 1208, and 1202 area, and 1096 barea 2 times, so if u have a good day dont get greedy. choppy range, 96 to 92. not trend like early

 

 

Thursday- November 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Nov 11-09:17) mike: cover 1/2 of the puts on the open. 08.50-09.25 resist
(Nov 11-09:51) mike: yesterday low held by 1 tick. should break
(Nov 11-09:52) mike: 1207 supp turned resist
(Nov 11-09:56) mike: 04.50 supp,

(Nov 11-10:05) mike: The lower open was bought, but the ES held under 1207.50-1207.00 support on the bounce, and the selling took the ES to 1202.00 so far. That 1207 area needs cleared / held to get into neutral mode.

(Nov 11-10:11) mike: 1208 r from pre open, a drop to 06 needs to hold
(Nov 11-10:16) mike: 06.00 held, the NQ will lead, it filled gap, now must stay over 2158
(Nov 11-10:21) mike: good resist there 09.50-10.50
(Nov 11-10:28) mike: 06 pivotal area on this pullback
(Nov 11-10:30) mike: tails, rejection up there - 2164 nq area key resist
(Nov 11-10:38) mike: wedge pattern broke, a bounce will fail, 06.50-07.00 resist
(Nov 11-10:47) mike: the 1st drop ws 4.75 pts, 1204.50 is also 4.75. needs to hold, 1207.50 or a bit higher a sell if stalls out,
(Nov 11-10:49) mike: pressure should be on under 96 here

(Nov 11-10:59) mike: The ES bounced to 1209.50 after the last update then reversed and pulled back to the 1204 area. The back and forth action should continue, so a test of the high that stalls/ reverses should be sold. A pullback to the 1204 area that stalls/ reverses sets up a scalp long. That area should hold, but if not then a test of the 1099.50-1199.00 area is likely.

(Nov 11-11:08) mike: just sell bounces. 1208-1209 good resist
(Nov 11-11:20) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart has been dynamic resist all morning... at 07 now
(Nov 11-11:21) mike: 1204.50 has been solid supp. a break / hold there pushes em towards 1199
(Nov 11-11:33) mike: 1204 a base, a dip should hold 05.50 if going to break out higher
(Nov 11-11:36) mike: need to hold, and get over 20 ema, 4 tests there rejected, 3 tests of 04 rejected... need to break that to get anything going
(Nov 11-11:41) mike: 05.50 held but its turning into a cigar pattern -- 3.50 point range 1207.75 to 1204.25 needs a breakout , mkt vulnerable imo

(Nov 11-11:44) mike: The 1204 area gave a couple bounces but they are not sticking so stay with shorting bounces under 1209 and a break/ hold of 1204 could be trouble .

(Nov 11-11:51) mike: mkt a bit tricky, there shouldn't be much upside. that sticks anyhow. , a dip that stalls, reverses 2161-2159 area on nq its a scalp long.

(Nov 11-11:56) mike: good resist at 08-09 , 06.76 need hold on dip here

(Nov 11-12:26) mike: trend up but Dow still flat liked. 1209 resist , 2170 NQ KEY for trend, 08 supp on es

(Nov 11-13:05) mike: 1209 double top , slow moving but a test of 1205 possible here if 07.50 not cleared, held on a dip
(Nov 11-13:09) mike: 07.50 should hld now.
(Nov 11-13:10) mike: a pop to 1209 or so now possible. a reversal there a short
(Nov 11-13:26) mike: 1209 area rejected again 08 needs to hold, -- 07.25 supp on dip
(Nov 11-13:38) mike: 08.50 should hold on a dip, 07.50 key now
(Nov 11-13:40) mike: buy dips as long as 08.75 held.
(Nov 11-13:42) mike: 12.50-13.00 resist, a pullback should hold 09.00-08.50 lowest

(Nov 11-14:05) mike: 09 holding. nq turned at yesterday close so 09 must hld

(Nov 11-14:10) mike: The ES bounced to 1209 and backed off, but the dip held and a rally to 1211 occurred in trend up mode. The 1209 area now needs to hold to keep trends up. If broken a good reversal is possible.

(Nov 11-14:13) mike: stair step up so now 1209.25 needs hold, trend up over it
(Nov 11-14:18) mike: 12.50-13.00 next
(Nov 11-14:22) mike: 12.50 good offer, careful long
(Nov 11-14:23) mike: 11.00-10.50 supp
(Nov 11-14:31) mike: 11.25 held, its ok unless 11 breaks now, 09.00 key supp. 1212.50-1213.25 resist - the 16.50-17.00 a major zone short term
(Nov 11-14:37) mike: key area near yest closes. 12.25 must hold
(Nov 11-14:39) mike: sell a test of high ,
(Nov 11-14:40) mike: nq especially
(Nov 11-14:41) mike: 11.50 tgt 1,
(Nov 11-14:51) mike: 10.50 tgt 2
(Nov 11-14:53) mike: 09.00 is key/ pivotal now if 10.50 breaks
(Nov 11-14:55) mike: 12.00 area now resist, 1209.50 should hold or mkt in trouble
(Nov 11-15:04) mike: held at 1210. that a key area, should / must stay over it careful long tho, upside not much
(Nov 11-15:08) mike: a push up to 12 need to stick, not reverse
(Nov 11-15:13) mike: 12 tested,, 11.25 should/ must hold now
(Nov 11-15:16) mike: 12 area on top, 09.50 on bottom the key areas going into close. choppy. have a good rest of the day
(Nov 11-15:28) mike: 09.50 held, its key. take care

 

 

Wednesday- November 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Nov 10-09:10) mike: 1206 need to hold on a drop from resist, if it doesn't then yesterdays highs will be a top. volatility should be good today
(Nov 10-09:15) mike: 1213.50-1214.00 rejected already, key early
(Nov 10-09:41) mike: 10.50 resist
(Nov 10-09:49) mike: 09.75-10.50 good resist
(Nov 10-09:57) mike: 07.25-07.75 trend resist now
(Nov 10-10:04) mike: 1206.00-1206.75 resist now ,
(Nov 10-10:05) mike: 99.50-99.00 tgt
(Nov 10-10:12) mike: 40 minutes into trading, but feeble start to bounce , 1204.50 trend resist

(Nov 10-10:17) mike: The 1213.50-1214.00 initial resistance was rejected just before stocks opened and the pop when stocks opened was sold and it was straight down to 1201.75 after 37 minutes of trading. This bounce will need to get over 1207.75-1208.25 area and hold to change things. Otherwise the 1199.50-1199.00 area should be seen on this leg down.

(Nov 10-10:29) mike: its trend down unless 1206 is cleared
(Nov 10-10:32) mike: oil inventory release goosed oil stocks, lifted mkt. 1202 now must hold to avoid 1199.50-1199.00, possibly 1193 area

(Nov 10-10:58) mike: the remaining puts cover here or put stop at 1211, where 60ema on 5 min is now, it has stopped bounces 2 days now
(Nov 10-11:05) mike: 0775-08.25 just missed... that key to clear/ hold
(Nov 10-11:30) mike: 1205.50-1204.50 supp, should / must hold . 1209.75 good resist
(Nov 10-11:34) mike: short under 08.50
(Nov 10-11:35) mike: 06.50 supp should/ must hold on dip
(Nov 10-11:39) mike: ok, key resist here. bigger trend resist 1209.75 , that must be exceeded , 07.50 must hold now
(Nov 10-11:49) mike: a dip needs to holds 9/ 18ema on 1 min chart , 1208.50 now
(Nov 10-11:51) mike: 09.00-08.50 trend up supp, nq took lead and still strong
(Nov 10-12:00) mike: if 1210.50 breaks, trend turns, drop to 09.00-08.00
(Nov 10-12:07) mike: dbl top ,08.50 key

(Nov 10-12:10) mike: The ES took out the 1207.75-1208.25 area and rallied to test the high before a small pullback so far. A pop to 1212 that reverses is a short with a tight stop. The 1208 area is key support that must hold to avoid more trouble.

(Nov 10-12:38) mike: might be it for bounce , a test of 1210 needs gusto , or down they go
(Nov 10-12:55) mike: 08 held, but this bounce no gusto, 1211 needs cleared / held - not reversed
(Nov 10-13:03) mike: sell 1209 or better
(Nov 10-13:05) mike: a nice 123, 09.50-10.00 break dn area
(Nov 10-13:08) mike: stop 1211, 07 test target
(Nov 10-13:09) mike: scratch this short,
(Nov 10-13:10) mike: fast reversal , the 1207.25 is pivotal this afternoon, a transition area this morning
(Nov 10-13:22) mike: 1213.50-1214.00 was sold pre open, supp at 1211 area on pullback should / must hold
(Nov 10-13:33) mike: the 1215 should be hard to break/ hold, careful if long up here
(Nov 10-13:36) mike: bids get pulled , a test of 11.00-10.50 likely if 14 not cleared soon

(Nov 10-13:40) mike: A quick drop to 1207.25 was reversed just as fast. The 1215 area should be hard to clear and hold so look for a dip if tested, if 1210.50 breaks then the 1207 area is key and pivotal for the rest of today.

(Nov 10-13:57) mike: 1212 good supp. if they go over 1213 then back down thru 1212, it could start a quick drop. otherwise mkt ok unless 1212 breaks
(Nov 10-14:06) mike: could test 17 then pull back a bit, 13 now supp, must hold
(Nov 10-14:13) mike: 1217.00-1217.50 resist rejected 1st time, 14.50 supp on pullback
(Nov 10-14:20) mike: just missed 14.50. the 15.00-14.50 is key. has to hold or 17 will be a top
(Nov 10-14:29) mike: that 13.50 was ''last trapped'', the 15.50-16.00 pivotal , a reversal gives drop towards 14 or lower
(Nov 10-14:33) mike: just a scalp, but acting tired, shorts covering holding it up
(Nov 10-14:37) mike: stuck holding 14. the failure under resist , a pop up should reverse, nq watch for lea
(Nov 10-14:43) mike: nq has good resist up here too. ES ok over 14.00-13.50, need to get over 15.50-16.00 and stick... soon

(Nov 10-14:49) mike: mkt vulnerable, a sell under 15.50
(Nov 10-14:50) mike: hold off, a break/ hold under 14 safer
(Nov 10-14:54) mike: NQ has 2183-82 to hold to stay in uptrend. eye on it too if involved up here
(Nov 10-15:01) mike: short bounce
(Nov 10-15:07) mike: 3pm high , 123 type top pattern at 15.75. nq pattern not looking good now
(Nov 10-15:14) mike: 15.50 shouldn't be exceeded/held ,but a drop to 1213.00-1212.25 should hold for a scalp today.
(Nov 10-15:23) mike: choppy , avoid unless a scalper
(Nov 10-15:39) mike: re entry for puts on a test of high
(Nov 10-15:43) mike: nq a better short , but 15 on es good

(Nov 10-15:56) mike: 1213 will be the key supp, it'll take a break under that , to break the stair step higher. 1217 resist will be the key on upside. have a great rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday- November 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 09-09:06) mike: 1221.50 won't hold very long. watch for a run up to 1225 to 1227.75 to fail.
(Nov 09-09:14) mike: 1223.50-1224.50 resist, 1227.75-1228.50 if not rejected
(Nov 09-09:38) mike: 22 good r now
(Nov 09-09:41) mike: if you bought puts yesterday cover 1/2 at 1215 basis ES. mkt in trouble under 21.50
(Nov 09-09:58) mike: the gap up pen was sold, 128.50 held, now 21.50 pivotal again
(Nov 09-10:02) mike: 21 supp , must stay over it or reversal
(Nov 09-10:07) mike: 21.50 supp now ,

(Nov 09-10:14) mike: The ES had a gap up open at 1223.50 and that was reversed and a drop to test the 1218.75-1218.25 support brought in buying and a move back over 1221.50 held so far. That is pivotal and must hold to keep the upside intact. A reversal to 1219-1218 is major support now.

(Nov 09-10:26) mike: 23 trend supp now
(Nov 09-10:32) mike: watch for reversal 24.50 area , or break 23
(Nov 09-10:34) mike: 21.50 supp, a bounce that stalls is a short, top at key resist so far
(Nov 09-10:40) mike: a small turn at 21.50 area, 23.00-23.50 resist on this
(Nov 09-10:50) mike: use a bounce to short, 21.50-22.50 resist now
(Nov 09-11:08) mike: 22 should not be cleared/ held now
(Nov 09-11:08) mike: nq leading ES

(Nov 09-11:13) mike: After the last update the ES made a new high for the year by 1 tick, then reversed and dropped to 1220 before a bounce to the 1221.50-1222.50 sell zone, and now the 1218.50 is still key. A bounce will be sold, so stay with shorts on bounces.

(Nov 09-11:17) mike: they can bounce, but a short or add if in a short on bounce when it stalls out... nq leading so keep an eye on it too
(Nov 09-11:20) mike: 2185 area on nq a key supp there
(Nov 09-11:25) mike: not much of a bounce of 19. just over key supp.. if NQ doesn't defend its 2185-84 area it will pull ES down.
(Nov 09-11:30) mike: bearish pattern , under 21.50 mkt vulnerable
(Nov 09-11:35) mike: odds of breaking 18.50 good unless 20.75 exceeded
(Nov 09-11:40) mike: so far no follow thru on bounce attempts. a move back over 21.50-22.00 needed to take pressure off.
(Nov 09-11:52) mike: should go for 1850 soon
(Nov 09-11:53) mike: 21 now resist, key to get over n hold. its 2189 on nq
(Nov 09-11:57) mike: finally.... 19.50 now r
(Nov 09-12:02) mike: cover 1/2 of puts bought yesterday at 1215.50 basis ES. 18.25-19.25 resist now

(Nov 09-12:22) mike: The ES rolled over from 1221, took out 1218.50 on the way to a 1216.75 low so far. The 1218.50-1219.50 is now trend resistance. The 1215.00-1214.75 area needs to be quickly reversed to avoid going towards 1211 area.

(Nov 09-12:33) mike: mkt has changed, at least for today and vix soon to give several sell sigs. careful long unless 18.50 exceeded/ held with some gusto/ momentum.

(Nov 09-12:44) mike: again, if you bought puts late yesterday w/ ES at 1221, take off 1/2 but do it here a 16.75 basis ES
(Nov 09-12:56) mike: an attempt to base out and bounce but nothing good happens for bulls to day unless 18.50 exceeded/ held on a dip
(Nov 09-13:08) mike: at this point, 19.50 can be reversed hen 17.50 would be supp
(Nov 09-13:18) mike: 19.50 a short
(Nov 09-13:20) mike: a bounce off 17.50 area possible, if so sell it
(Nov 09-13:26) mike: any pop up is a short, you'll get em back. buy some puts for a swing trade if 19 area tested
(Nov 09-13:29) mike: 1215.00-1214.75 can be tested then bounce, but if no bounce there look out below to 1211 or 1206
(Nov 09-13:39) mike: its obvious now, gap day turned trend day. low could be made in final minutes

(Nov 09-13:43) mike: The ES reached 1219.50 and turned back down, as it has been a trend day to this point. A bounce should fail under the 1217 to keep the move in gear and reach the 1211.00-1210.50 zone or maybe lower.

(Nov 09-13:46) mike: 14.50-15.25 trend resist now
(Nov 09-13:50) mike: 1211.00-1210.50 on ES, 2173.50-2172.50 on NQ is key supp now, a break points towards 1206.50 on ES .
(Nov 09-13:57) mike: 14.50-15.25 resist per earlier
(Nov 09-14:00) mike: possible transition if and only if 14.50 exceeded/ held- for move towards 16.50 ''last trapped''
(Nov 09-14:18) mike: trend down day no longer if 16.50 exceeded. supp at 15.00-14.50 , needs to hold or lows can be tested
(Nov 09-14:34) mike: a bit of a wedge, but as long as 14.50 is held the mkt avoids getting sold off hard again. 17.50 key resist if a pop over 16
(Nov 09-14:52) mike: just missed 17.50 , if 15.75 breaks pressure on
(Nov 09-14:55) mike: wedge pattern, a symmetry bounce, its a short on bounce still, a failure near 16 or so if they don crumble
(Nov 09-15:04) mike: 16 rejected, 14.50-15.00 resist now
(Nov 09-15:13) mike: a low in last 10 minutes still a possibility for trend day w/ gap open.

(Nov 09-15:16) mike: The ES reached 1217 and reversed, the 1211.00-1210.50 zone must hold or 1206.50 will be tested after a bounce fails.

(Nov 09-15:19) mike: 14.50 good r now
(Nov 09-15:23) mike: 1211.00-1210.50 should get hit if 13.50 sold

(Nov 09-15:30) mike: still 30 minutes left. 1211.00-1210.50 barely held... a 2 point bounce should fail for this to continue, or or low for day may be in

(Nov 09-15:36) mike: if 1211.00-1210.50 sliced thru 1206.50 next area.
(Nov 09-15:42) mike: watch for 1206.50 overnight if not at close, stay with 1/2 the puts for now
(Nov 09-15:49) mike: 1206.50 met, low at close likely. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Monday- November 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 08-09:05) mike: sell bounces to 1215 and maybe 1210 area - a *hold over 1220* needed to avoid trouble

(Nov 08-10:51) mike: 1220 good resist now, was rejected not exceeded/ held
(Nov 08-10:51) mike: bounce off 1215.75-1215.25 , 17.50-18.25 resist
(Nov 08-10:51) mike: 17.50 needs exceeded / held or1211-10 next

(Nov 08-10:51) mike: The market opened lower and the ES dropped to the 1215.75-1215.25 zone and bounced. That didn't hold, then the 1216 level was defended on the dip as the NQ is leading the market back up. For now look for 1220 for a reversal. That 1215.75-1215.25 zone is key and if broken then a drop towards 1211 is likely before a better bounce occurs.

(Nov 08-10:51) mike: 17.25 supp on a dip. nq needs to stay over 2183 area
(Nov 08-10:51) mike: sell a pop up, 19-20 good resist ,
(Nov 08-10:51) mike: wedge broke, 18.25 resist
(Nov 08-10:51) mike: 18.25 rejected 17 must hold now
(Nov 08-10:51) mike: NQ held its 2183 area. a move to 19.50-20.50 on ES possible if 17.75 holds
(Nov 08-10:56) mike: poor action/ pattern... sell 18 or better, 1219 should be it on upside
(Nov 08-11:03) mike: 16.25-17.00 good resist.

(Nov 08-11:06) mike: The ES double topped at 1219.00 and that area will not be exceeded/ held today. The 1217.00-1217.75 area is resistance and 1211.00-1210.50 will be next support on this drop.

(Nov 08-11:12) mike: a pop to 17.00-17.50 that stalls is a good short. 19 shouldn't be exceeded/ held
(Nov 08-11:16) mike: if 16.25 breaks, and no quick reversal up, then a lower low towards 1213-1212
(Nov 08-11:28) mike: stall at resist, 16 needs to hold ion dip f low is in ,
(Nov 08-11:57) mike: shorts getting squeeze, 17.50-17.00 should / must hold
(Nov 08-12:05) mike: 18.50-18.00 needs to hold here
(Nov 08-12:11) mike: supp holding. if broken 17 next supp. still 20 resist
(Nov 08-12:21) mike: 18 area now key supp now .
(Nov 08-12:25) mike: 20.00-19.50 as far as a dip should go now. 1223.50-1224.50 a reversal area on a push higher IF 19.50 holds

(Nov 08-12:29) mike: The ES took out 1217.75 and held on a pullback, that is key support now. The 1219.50 is first support that must hold. The 1223.50-1224.50 area shouldn't be seen, or held if reached. The 1220 level needs held to stay out of potential trouble up here.

(Nov 08-12:36) mike: stair step up here, a choppy move but now a move up thru 1220 that then turns back down thru it should start a reversal...
(Nov 08-12:51) mike: pattern break, a pop up should be sold
(Nov 08-12:56) mike: nq roll over, the 19.50 is resist 1
(Nov 08-13:19) mike: a decent pullback can occur if no hold of 19.50
(Nov 08-13:27) mike: rejection up there, but for now a dip to 19.75 needs to hold
(Nov 08-13:33) mike: thats a top, a 2 point dip held last time, and again so far. 19.25 key s
(Nov 08-13:36) mike: 20.25-20.75 resist now
(Nov 08-13:44) mike: 19.75 shouldn't be exceeded/ held now , nq leading
(Nov 08-13:52) mike: 19.50 pivotal here
(Nov 08-14:04) mike: 20.25 small resist. a dip to 19 needs held
(Nov 08-14:07) mike: a triple top likely, but a pullback should hold 19.50 now to stay outta trouble
(Nov 08-14:12) mike: it should sell off from 20.75-21.00
(Nov 08-14:18) mike: need to stay over 19.50, pivotal level . to avoid drop. its strong over tht

(Nov 08-14:25) mike: The 1219.50 level will be pivotal this afternoon, and needs to hold to avoid a reversal towards 1218-1217. As long as it holds however, the 1223.50-1224.50 has a chance to be tested but shouldn't hold there.

(Nov 08-14:41) mike: a test of the 1221 area reversed 3 times, at good resist on nq too. this 1218 area held this afternoon, a break starts transition lower

(Nov 08-14:48) mike: 1220 shouldnt hold

(Nov 08-14:56) mike: 18 area still holding , but bounces not holding either. 19.75-20.50 resist/ sell on a stall/ reversal and cover/ supp at 18.50-17.50- must hold

(Nov 08-15:03) mike: 1 hour left, has been strong lately but if 1220 not held on strnghth, or 18.50 breaks, it can start a topping pattern
(Nov 08-15:07) mike: need to push thru 20 then hold it on a dip soon or not going to happen today
(Nov 08-15:14) mike: puts are pretty cheap , ok for a pullback to 1211 area
(Nov 08-15:22) mike: here the short cover run up. but a choppy , thin, narrow ranges. 35 min left... have a good rest of the day.
(Nov 08-15:45) mike: 20.25-20.00 should hold. if not 18.50 , 23.50-24.50 last resist. taking smallshort 21 or better

 

 

Friday- November 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 05-09:05) mike: THE ES TOOK OFF FROM 1215.00-1214.50 INITIAL SUPP- EXTRA KEY NOW. SHORT NQ WILL BE EASIER TRADE IT LOOKS, 2188-2191 STRONG RESIST.

(Nov 05-09:55) mike: 20ema on 5 min [day session] at 17.50, trend supp
(Nov 05-10:05) mike: 123 top ,
(Nov 05-10:10) mike: it will take a break of 1218-1217 area to break the uptrend, bounces shouldn't stick tho

(Nov 05-10:22) mike: The ES popped up to 1121.25 and dropped to 1217.75 before turning back up. As long as 1220 holds the market is trend up. A break of 1218 would be the first break the strong uptrend and we could see the 1215 area, the key support, at least.

(Nov 05-10:36) mike: 22.50 trend supp, these are reversal areas if broken
(Nov 05-10:44) mike: 22.50 held, but next bounce should fail

(Nov 05-10:48) mike: The 1220 level held and the ES reached 1124.00 so far. The stair step higher is getting parabolic short term so that 1222.50 support now must hold to avoid a reversal.

(Nov 05-10:58) mike: prairie dog, 1223.25 now must hld
(Nov 05-11:04) mike: NQ rejected its 2188-91 area, and the action off 1224.50 was rejection/ top / sell the NQ especially on bounce
(Nov 05-11:10) mike: 23.50 resist now

(Nov 05-10:22) mike: The ES popped up to 1121.25 and dropped to 1217.75 before turning back up. As long as 1220 holds the market is trend up. A break of 1218 would be the first break the strong uptrend and we could see the 1215 area, the key support, at least.

(Nov 05-10:36) mike: 22.50 trend supp, these are reversal areas if broken
(Nov 05-10:44) mike: 22.50 held, but next bounce should fail

(Nov 05-10:48) mike: The 1220 level held and the ES reached 1124.00 so far. The stair step higher is getting parabolic short term so that 1222.50 support now must hold to avoid a reversal.

(Nov 05-10:58) mike: prairie dog, 1223.25 now must hld
(Nov 05-11:04) mike: NQ rejected its 2188-91 area, and the action off 1224.50 was rejection/ top / sell the NQ especially on bounce
(Nov 05-11:10) mike: 23.50 resist now
(Nov 05-11:22) mike: need to hold 21.75 area or trend finally breaks
(Nov 05-11:43) mike: never cleared 23.50, 21.75 broke, 1218-1217 next supp
(Nov 05-11:52) mike: the daily indicators were very overbought, vix sell sig. sp500 met .618 retrace and reversed
(Nov 05-11:53) mike: bounces are shorts,
(Nov 05-11:54) mike: 1221.75-1222.50 resist

(Nov 05-12:03) mike: The 1222.50 broke and the market dropped nicely to 1217.25 so far. The 1219.50-1220.50 is resistance, the 1215.75-1215.25 must hold to avoid a transition lower.

(Nov 05-12:21) mike: 19.50-20.50 sold. they should test/ break low
(Nov 05-12:44) mike: if 19.75 holds we can get 1 more bounce, then drop
(Nov 05-12:54) mike: broke supp, look for 20-21 area to sell , 19 is key supp
(Nov 05-13:03) mike: 20.50 has been pivotal. a move over then back under can trigger a move down. its gotta hold if broken, not reversed again
(Nov 05-13:15) mike: 20.75-20.50 transition supp must hold here now
(Nov 05-13:28) mike: 2175 held, very thin slow so careful in here
(Nov 05-13:33) mike: 20.50 is pivotal here

(Nov 05-14:04) mike: 19 small supp
(Nov 05-14:07) mike: 20.00-20.50 a short, stop 21.50
(Nov 05-14:09) mike: that should be it if going lower today
(Nov 05-14:28) mike: stay w/ this, 19 r now. 15 target

(Nov 05-14:32) mike: 19 hit i'm flat, the 20 area good resist, 18.50 supp now
(Nov 05-14:44) mike: some short covering down there. a scalp long off 18 possible, but it acts toppy today and shorts better odds

(Nov 05-14:53) mike: The ES bounced to 1221.75 then stalled and reversed and a test of the low occurred. If there is not a move over 1220.50 soon, the market could dive towards 1215 before day's over.

(Nov 05-14:59) mike: pressure should be on staying under 1219.50 , it needs cleared/ held or trouble
(Nov 05-15:20) mike: 17.50 keeps holding. , and must or 1215 gets tested . 20.00-20.50 resist.... if cleared then mkt averts trouble again
(Nov 05-15:41) mike: 17,50 to 20.50 and right back down. daily indicators are bearish, sell the 20 area
(Nov 05-15:41) mike: and/ or have a great weekend

 

 

Thursday- November 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 04-09:14) mike: sell up here, cover when dip loses momentum
(Nov 04-09:18) mike: a drop to 1206-1205 will need to hold to have a gap up and go, and not a reversal
(Nov 04-09:22) mike: 1204 is the key support level to hold
(Nov 04-09:33) mike: 1207.75-1208.25 sold, 09 resist, 1205.75-120400 band supp
(Nov 04-09:44) mike: 08.50 must hold
(Nov 04-09:52) mike: 08.50 key now, then 06.50
(Nov 04-10:06) mike: 08.50 resist now, reversal

(Nov 04-10:10) mike: The big gap up open was sold at the 1208.25 resistance on the ES and after a dip to 1206.50 they ran to 1210.50 and reversed. That should be a high for the morning, 11204 is key to hold on further downside.

(Nov 04-10:14) mike: 08.50 area rejected, a pivotal level

(Nov 04-10:21) mike: unless 1206.50 is broken, then held on a bounce, the mkt is still in uptrends. a short at a test of high that stalls, but no damage done unless 1206.50 breaks , 1208.25 supp now

(Nov 04-10:32) mike: 1212.00-1212.50 major was rejected, a break / hold over that not likely , yet. if it is they go into melt up mode to 1218 next- 1210 supp here must hold

(Nov 04-10:46) mike: The ES held the 1206.50 early low and bounced to just under the 1212 resistance area. The 1210 area needs to hold to stay trend up, if broken then that 1206.50 area is major today to avoid a reversal.

(Nov 04-10:48) mike: a 1223 type top pattern up here is possible.
(Nov 04-10:59) mike: watch 12.00-11.50 for supp now
(Nov 04-11:08) mike: 1212.50 trend supp, deeper drop if broken
(Nov 04-11:08) mike: 11.50 is now key area
(Nov 04-11:21) mike: 12.50 still key, a high in if broken \

(Nov 04-11:31) mike: The ES ran up to 1215.00 and bids dyied up and the market is drifting lower. A break of 1211.50 would break the upside symmetry. If the ES makes a lower high and reverses then it could start a drop but 1211.50 needs broken to turn the trends.

(Nov 04-11:44) mike: short under 14
(Nov 04-11:46) mike: lost momentum, NQ bearish under 2186.50./ 1210.75 target if 12 breaks
(Nov 04-11:47) mike: 13.75 shouldnt be exceeded
(Nov 04-11:55) mike: 1212 defended but NQ still weak , 10.50 still possible
(Nov 04-12:07) mike: 1210.75-1210.25 target, key supp 1
(Nov 04-12:15) mike: missed by 1 tick , if still in a short cover at 12.00 , fresh look
(Nov 04-12:27) mike: a dbl top possible, but mkt still trend up with 3.50-4.00 point dips being bought
(Nov 04-12:35) mike: a dip tht holds 12.50 area should hold if gong to see 1215

(Nov 04-12:39) mike: The ES went to 1211.00 and turned right back up. The upside looks to be losing momentum, so a drop needs to hold that 1211 area or the trend up move would be over.

(Nov 04-12:47) mike: a big 123 top pattern. sell under 1214

(Nov 04-14:49) mike: 2187 area on NQ was also rejected again, treating that as a top
(Nov 04-14:53) mike: get partial short for a swing trade if highs tested / a 123 top top
(Nov 04-15:19) mike: 123 top, nq still leading - only top if 1213 breaks end of day
(Nov 04-15:24) mike: 13 area held, flat or buy dip over 13
(Nov 04-15:28) mike: 1219.8 on spx , a close over that is what they going for
(Nov 04-15:31) mike: should hold 15.50-15.00 area to stay strong
(Nov 04-15:46) mike: NQ ALL day trouble at 2186-87. the mkt to be short
(Nov 04-15:50) mike: 1215 , will be key in morning . have a good day

 

 

Wednesday- November 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 03-09:45) mike: bearish under 93, it mst be exceeded/ held on a dip to change trend dn

(Nov 03-10:26) mike: The ES was sold on the bounce to 1193.00 and dropped to the 1190.00-1189.25 key area before bouncing. If that 1190.00-1189.25 zone breaks a high for the morning will likely be in place. IF they get over 1193 then look for a reversal near 1196-1197.

(Nov 03-10:44) mike: 91.50 a short , 2146 nq
(Nov 03-11:10) mike: its in trouble under 90.00-90.50 , 86, then 83 the next supp

(Nov 03-11:28) mike: The 1193 area on the ES was a lid on the bounce off 1190 and the break started a trend down move to 1186 area so far. Bounces are shorting opportunities as long as the ES stays under 1189.50-1190.00 for now.

(Nov 03-11:30) mike: 88.00-88.50 resist 1
(Nov 03-11:42) mike: stall at 88.50 reist a short to 87.50
(Nov 03-11:47) mike: need a move over 88.50 that holds or still trend down action
(Nov 03-12:18) mike: bounce to last trapped sold again. 87 must be cleared to change tone

(Nov 03-12:21) mike: The ES bounced from 1186 to 1189.00 and rolled over to a 1184.75 low so far. A break over 1187.50 is needed to start a potential bottomong pattern. Trend moves into Fed releases tend to be reversed, we'll see, it's a key kay today.

(Nov 03-12:42) mike: 88 area key resist now

(Nov 03-12:51) mike: its Fed day so how that goes will be most important, but this action, internal gauges, and sentiment all looking similar to the end of the run up into Apr high at 1212

(Nov 03-13:01) mike: 1188 on ES, 2142 resist on NQ
(Nov 03-13:02) mike: a dip should/ must hold 87 area now
(Nov 03-13:03) mike: 88.50 key area. transition area
(Nov 03-13:11) mike: 88.50 area reversed, this 87.25-87.00 must hold to keep uptrend
(Nov 03-13:18) mike: a bounce here needed, it should fail under 88

(Nov 03-13:30) mike: The ES bounced to 1188.75 before turning back down. That area is pivotal, and the market is vulnerable unless its cleared and held on a dip, not quickly reversed. After the Fed release expect a quick move down and up (or vise versa) and then a trend should develop. Updates will be via instant message post release.

(Nov 03-13:53) mike: dbl bottom attempt. 1186 now supp, must hold or 82.50 area tested before bounce
(Nov 03-14:04) mike: its ok unless 87.50 breaks
(Nov 03-14:13) mike: sell rally, the top in
(Nov 03-14:25) mike: sell in 90s
(Nov 03-14:25) mike: top in it looks
(Nov 03-14:26) mike: tht 82.50 pre fed low key supp,
(Nov 03-14:29) mike: if they bounce to 88 n stall its a gift , this is a big top under tht

(Nov 03-14:39) mike: 88 pivotal here
(Nov 03-14:42) mike: a wedge lke pattern. 84.50 the break dn
(Nov 03-14:43) mike: 88 sill key
(Nov 03-14:48) mike: nq at top,
(Nov 03-14:49) mike: 88 must hold or reversal to 84 area
(Nov 03-14:52) mike: lost mo, 90 must break / hold here

(Nov 03-15:03) mike: 91 is trend supp,
(Nov 03-15:10) mike: watch 1 min chart 9 and 18ema trend supp
(Nov 03-15:25) mike: 92.50-91.50 must hold. a 123top possible up here too
(Nov 03-15:32) mike: we had a dn-up-dn then trend up to resist, thats a high
(Nov 03-15:48) mike: 93 area key end of day

 

 

Tuesday- November 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 02-09:05) mike: 82.50 should hold
(Nov 02-09:17) mike: 88.50-87.50 s 1,
(Nov 02-09:50) mike: 88.50 held, but sell over 90

(Nov 02-10:19) mike: The gap up open held and the ES reached 1192.00 before reversing. The ES shouldn't get over 1190 and hold if it's going back towards 1183-1182 area.

(Nov 02-10:37) mike: 88 now good resist,
(Nov 02-10:59) mike: the es crosses over/ under 1190 a number of times earlier, making 89-90 pretty much a key area
(Nov 02-11:22) mike: 88.50 needs to hold now, or break for proof of turn. they cant get over 90 and hold , so far, so beware of reversal there
(Nov 02-11:51) mike: 3rd test of 20ema on 5 min chart, 88 must hold

(Nov 02-11:59) mike: The ES bounced from 1186.50 to 1189.75 and stalled out. It narrow and choppy but the 1188 level needs to hold to avoid a deeper drop. If 1190 is cleared, watch for a quick turn back down. If that doesn't set up, then the market is going to test 1193 one more time.

(Nov 02-12:11) mike: 90 reversed,- 88.50 area need hold
(Nov 02-12:29) mike: good rejection of 90, they dont like it up there very long. 88.25 look key supp
(Nov 02-12:45) mike: moves may not stick, but bulls in charge over 88
(Nov 02-12:45) mike: above 88.50 actually
(Nov 02-12:49) mike: a dip to 90.00-89.50 needs to hold
(Nov 02-12:54) mike: 90.25 trend supp, need hold to break out over 93, or down to 88.50
(Nov 02-13:09) mike: key here, if 90.75 breaks, trend breaks and a drop to 89.75 likely, then a bounce attempt

(Nov 02-13:26) mike: The ES held 1188 and cleared 1190 but held on the way up to 1191.50 so far. Bounces haven't been holding lately, but for now trend area up as long as the 1190 level is held. If that's broken then a decent drop can occur.

(Nov 02-13:40) mike: watch 11200 on Dow cas as pivotal / transition area on upside
(Nov 02-13:45) mike: 91.00 supp now, should hold
(Nov 02-13:48) mike: 91.50 now must hold, or a bounce tht follows a short
(Nov 02-13:55) mike: 91.25 trend up supp, 1190 key area to hold. and 11200 on dow cash .
(Nov 02-13:58) mike: if 93 cleared, 97-98 area next... a mini mlt up, 3 tops at 93 if this breaks under 92

(Nov 02-14:06) mike: The 1190.25 level was held and the 1193.00 level tested again. The bids are drying up, and unless there is a break and hold over that resistance the market is vulnerable and a late selloff likely.

(Nov 02-14:08) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart (RTH) is at 1191, it held on dip all day and key now for trend support

(Nov 02-14:16) mike: lost momentum. NQ getting soggy. a bounce up here should fail
(Nov 02-14:19) mike: 91.50 resist, nq a short on any bounce back under 2152
(Nov 02-14:32) mike: 91.50 rejected. 90 key to break '
(Nov 02-14:42) mike: 90.00-89.25 needs to be solid support or mkt in some trouble
(Nov 02-14:47) mike: a hold here at 89.50 a must to bounce towards 91
(Nov 02-15:02) mike: from 89.50 to 91.00. 89.50 bigger trend supp must stay over.
(Nov 02-15:23) mike: slow dull day but the resist/ supp areas were good spots for several low risk trades . have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday- November 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Nov 01-09:29) mike: 84 area s1, the 82 area is pivotal. if they can get to 88 and stall/ reverses its a short. first good dip a buy unless 84 broken/ held

(Nov 01-09:35) mike: should be early high,
(Nov 01-09:36) mike: ISM data 10am

(Nov 01-09:43) mike: 86.50-85.75 should be solid supp now. if broke, a reversal occurs. if 89 cleared, 93 area key, if broken a run to 1197.50-1199.00

(Nov 01-09:55) mike: 88 supp, then 85.50
(Nov 01-10:04) mike: 89.50 supp
(Nov 01-10:10) mike: 90.50 supp, the 88.00-87.50 key

(Nov 01-10:12) mike: The gap up open at the 1186.00-1186.50 resistance on the ES gave just a tiny dip before turning back up and rallying to 1189.75 before pulling back before the 10am ISM number. A pop to 1192.50-1193.00 was sold, now 1190.50 needs to hold or 1187.50 would be key to avoid a reversal pattern.

(Nov 01-10:18) mike: 123 type top
(Nov 01-10:21) mike: 89.75 area should be key to hold on this dip
(Nov 01-10:24) mike: 89.75 held, the 89.75-89.25 zone is pivotal/ transition area from double top on E
(Nov 01-10:37) mike: reversal pattern, 87.50 supp, a bounce tht fails at 90- 91 a short
(Nov 01-10:54) mike: bounce to 90-91 sold, 91 shouldnt be exceeded / held
(Nov 01-11:03) mike: 88.50-89.50 resist

(Nov 01-11:07) mike: The 1190.50 level was broken and a bounce then failed at 1191.25 and the market turned down. The 1188.50-1189.50 area is now resistance that should be sold, the 1184 then 1182.50-1182.00 are next support/ target areas.

(Nov 01-11:16) mike: 88.25, 1 tick shy of resist... 86.50-87.00 r now
(Nov 01-11:21) mike: 86.50-87.00 resist rejected, its trend down unless broken soon
(Nov 01-11:38) mike: need a good bounce over 86.50-87.00 that holds, otherwise vulnerable mkt

(Nov 01-11:56) mike: The ES traded down to 1183.00, just over the 1182.50 gap on the Daily chart. The ES needs to stay over that to avoid a trip towards 1178.50-1178.00 today. The 1186.550-1187.00 area should be hard to clear / hold if the 1193 area presents a double top.

(Nov 01-12:36) mike: turned a resist,,, but 85 need break , luch time bounce otherwise

(Nov 01-12:43) mike: The 1186.50-1187.00 area was tested twice and gave small pullbacks. The market is vulnerable still unless that area is cleared and then held on a dip.

(Nov 01-12:53) mike: 84.75-85.50 max resist on a bounce if not dbl bottom , still tren down under
(Nov 01-13:05) mike: to resist, rgt back dn... stay short under 85
(Nov 01-13:15) mike: gap fill could be a bottom for now, especially if 85 cleared. if not, 78 gets tested
(Nov 01-13:21) mike: electrician coming to office, i'll be away about 30 min.

(Nov 01-13:40) mike: looks like i'll be in/ out for a few hours- The ES bounced off of the 1182.25 gap fill target, bounced back to the updated 1184.75-1185.50 zone, then dropped to double bottom IF the 1185 area is cleared. The 1186.50 then 1188 areas woulld be resistance if that occurs. If 1182 breaks then 1178 area is next and a key support now.

(Nov 01-14:08) mike: they could bounce but it wont stick. be ready to short the bounce when it stalls / shows rejection especially near 85

(Nov 01-14:26) mike: shorts stuck below holding it up. no 5 minute close under 1183 yet . if you took small short near 81 on friday near close, be flat tht on dip under 83. 86 area has been trouble all afternoon on top side. another range, but vulnerable still under 85 area

(Nov 01-14:31) mike: a bounce to 84-85 a short . not buying , toppy and reward/ risk better short
(Nov 01-14:40) mike: 82-83 good resist now. 78

(Nov 01-14:45) mike: The ES dropped to 1179.00 so far. This is not looking good, as the 1182-1183 area is now a key resistance that should be sold if reached. If 1178 area breaks, 1173 still major this week.

(Nov 01-14:59) mike: short cover bounce off 78.50 area. they'll be re shorted on a bounce
(Nov 01-15:04) mike: press on under 80 , trend dn
(Nov 01-15:07) mike: keep whatever short u have on , , tops in, add on a decent bounce
(Nov 01-15:08) mike: 78 now resist. 73 major
(Nov 01-15:14) mike: 2 min chart 15 sma a guide all way down off 86, its at 78 too now
(Nov 01-15:21) mike: wimpy bounce from a big area......
(Nov 01-15:26) mike: the move should fail at/ under 78.00-78.50 if low at key supp is to be broken
(Nov 01-15:28) mike: this should be it about, pullback must hold 76.00-75.50
(Nov 01-15:38) mike: 75.50 needs defended
(Nov 01-15:42) mike: The 1178 broke and the drop reversed from the 1173.50-1173.00 zone so its still trend down as long as 1178.50 rejected.

 

 

Friday- October 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 29-09:05) mike: 79.50-80.50 good resist, 1173 area still key , 72.25 was low on news
(Oct 29-09:20) mike: 76.50 need defended
(Oct 29-09:37) mike: tht a high
(Oct 29-09:39) mike: chicago pmi at 945, another number 10am
(Oct 29-09:40) mike: 79.50-80.50 resist 1
(Oct 29-09:44) mike: 80.50 rejected, but mkt not in trouble unless 77 breaks
(Oct 29-09:45) mike: 79 pivotal
(Oct 29-09:50) mike: 123, 80.25 stop b
(Oct 29-09:53) mike: 78 target 1
(Oct 29-09:55) mike: scalp out part 78 or better, stop break even on rst, 73 tgt 2
(Oct 29-10:01) mike: 77-76 supp held , so far, bounces should fail under 80
(Oct 29-10:09) mike: en\d of month hold... resist here, a drop to 79 area must hold - the 77 area key supp, no damage done unless broken/ held.

(Oct 29-10:13) mike: The lower open was reversed from 1177.00 support then the bounce to 1180.75 stalled and made a 1123 top. That set up a drop back to the 1177-1176 area which reversed and the rally reached the 1182 resistance so far. Now this is volatility, end of month, so this can continue back and forth. The 1180 needs to hold here, if broken then a drop 1177-1176 area will hold on a dip or there is damage done.

(Oct 29-10:17) mike: 82 good short, break of 80 needed
(Oct 29-10:29) mike: 82.50 resist , top, sell if reached , 80 must hold or hard drp
(Oct 29-10:31) mike: if short at 82, tht 82.50 shouldnt be exceeded
(Oct 29-10:36) mike: nq is close to breaking 13 min supp at 2128.50... key there
(Oct 29-10:46) mike: 79.50-80.25 resist now, nq broke too , it resist at 2128.50-2129.50
(Oct 29-10:48) mike: short areas , trend dn, poor action again ,

(Oct 29-10:56) mike: The market can not hold gains, as the ES backed off to 1177.75 so far. With the intermediate term internal gauges rolling over, prices should follow and sell off soon. Look for a test of the high, or a bounce to 1181 that stalls out, to be a good shorting opportunity as the market doesn't like to stay up there very long.

(Oct 29-11:18) mike: now we see.... over 81 and stay, or under 78 n stay
(Oct 29-11:22) mike: sell 80 or better, up to 82. stop just over 82, it shouldnt be exceeded/ held now
(Oct 29-11:23) mike: 81.50 shouldn't be cleared / held
(Oct 29-11:28) mike: should come right back down
(Oct 29-11:29) mike: like that. trend change if 79 breaks
(Oct 29-11:34) mike: 79.00-79.25 resist , cover a part short 77-76 zone. stop at 81 on remainder
(Oct 29-11:45) mike: 79.25 rejected, bears in charge under tht

(Oct 29-11:50) mike: The ES reached 1181.25 to short and dropped to the 1176 level before bouncing to 1179.25 updated resistance. That area is pivotal, and the bears are in control unless 1179.50 is exceeded/held now.

(Oct 29-11:55) mike: watch 78 now , to continue down if reversed.

(Oct 29-12:02) mike: resist here and stall... but a bit of a dbl bottom at 76.25-75.75 area, 11075 on Dow cash. thats a key supp, a pullback should hold over 77.50 or so to keep from reversing again

(Oct 29-12:12) mike: sell, tight stop, 77 tgt
(Oct 29-12:14) mike: 79.50 on top, 78.00 below - a break hold gets it moving
(Oct 29-12:41) mike: takes break of 80.00-79.50 rolls it over
(Oct 29-12:50) mike: 79.50 held, key i think
(Oct 29-13:13) mike: thats it, follow NQ lower, 79 break / hold to put mo on dnside
(Oct 29-13:26) mike: a squeeze over 81 area gets es to 84 area , but must clear 81 and hold there,
(Oct 29-13:31) mike: 80 should hold now , 84 possible
(Oct 29-13:33) mike: changing direction now, 81 not exceeded held, rejected

(Oct 29-13:37) mike: The 1179.50 area was exceeded but the bounce reached 1181.00 and turned back. A narrow range so a drop thru 1179 could pick up steam.

(Oct 29-13:51) mike: 81.75, then 84.00 on upside

(Oct 29-14:04) mike: The 1179.50 area was exceeded but pulled back to 1179.00 before turning back up. The bounce reached 1182.00 so far and pulled back a bit. It's the last day of the month, a drop and rally back is possible. The 1179 must hold or a spike to 1177-1176 can occur before bouncing back. IF 1182 is cut thru 1184.00 then 1188.00-1188.50 would be next.

(Oct 29-14:18) mike: sell under 82.50
(Oct 29-14:22) mike: no dont
(Oct 29-14:22) mike: 84 should be tested if 81 holds
(Oct 29-14:24) mike: 80-79.50 should be tested if 82 not exceeded/ held now
(Oct 29-14:32) mike: 80 test, 81 area a sell if stall on bounce

(Oct 29-14:41) mike: The 1182.50 level was rejected again. The market hasn't liked it up there so a 1177-1176 is likely. If broken the 1173 is major today

(Oct 29-14:47) mike: 80.50 -81.00 resist
(Oct 29-15:01) mike: small bounce then down again
(Oct 29-15:12) mike: bearish action again, a bounce that tests 80.00-80.50 and fails is a short - NQ weaker
(Oct 29-15:24) mike: a drop, bounce here, then 1 more drop. 77.50-76.50 must hold after this bounce fizzles or a test of 73.50 possible. NQ weaker
(Oct 29-15:28) mike: 81 should be bounce high, if a drop holds 1176 area then buy for a snap back
(Oct 29-15:42) mike: 82 resist rejected , again. its key. if a dip holds 81.00-80.50 upside stays intact. reversal if broken
(Oct 29-15:50) mike: nq dogging it. it'll be first to be dumped
(Oct 29-15:52) mike: toppy action, monday should be great. have a nice weekend
(Oct 29-15:59) mike: small short over w/e
(Oct 29-15:59) mike: take care

 

 

Thursday- October 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 28-10:04) mike: 84.50 last trapped, key to stay under

(Oct 28-10:22) mike: The gap up open was sold and the ES filled the gap so far. The 1182.50-1183.00 area needs cleared/ held or a trend move continues towards 1176 for a key decision area.

(Oct 28-10:47) mike: The market is still trend down after reaching 1176 area. A bounce to 1180 area should fail, if not then 1182.50-1183.00 is key resistance now.

(Oct 28-11:29) mike: The ES bounced to 1180.25 then dropped to 1178.50 and popped back up to 1180.25 so far. A break/ hold of 1178.50 would give a test of the low. If 1180 is held then 1183 is next bounce resistance.

(Oct 28-11:45) mike: 3 top at 80.00-80.50 resist, a scalp short under that , 78 now key supp, if broken a next bounce would fail under 1179 area
(Oct 28-11:59) mike: 78.00-78.50 now resist, new low tgt , 73,50-7300 very key

(Oct 28-12:13) mike: The ES rolled over and the break of 1178.50 started a slide to 1174.25 so far. The 1178.00-1178.50 is now trend down resistance. The 1173.50-1173.00 area needs to hold or the market is still in trouble the rest of the day.

(Oct 28-13:20) mike: The ES touched 1173.50 and bounced, then made a 123 bottom on the retest. This gave a quick rally to 1180.50. It's now a 2 sided day with 1173.50 s major support now.

(Oct 28-13:20) mike: 78 minor supp
(Oct 28-14:21) mike: The ES made a 123 top at 1180 and if 1176 is broken/ held the move can test 1173.40-1173.00 key support.

(Oct 28-15:00) mike: 1180 rejected all afternoon, bt 78-77 holding.. mkt ok over 78 but vulnerable
(Oct 28-15:06) mike: 79.50 needs hold now to stay up
(Oct 28-15:18) mike: sell a bounce , 80-81 top
(Oct 28-15:27) mike: 77 bottom of range, a bounce should fail tho near 79-80
 

 

Wednesday- October 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 27-08:36) mike: 80-81 good resist, a ''sell bounces'' day
(Oct 27-08:50) mike: 76.25 small r, 78 good initial resist now

(Oct 27-09:18) mike: The ES is opening lower. This could be the start of a correction, or a decent down day. Only breaking/ holding the resistance at the 1180.50-1181.00 area keeps the market from a decent pullback today. The 1167.50-1167.00 area should be tested if 1173.00-1172.50 breaks.

(Oct 27-10:10) mike: The lower open was reversed from just over 1173.50-1172.50 and a bounce rejected 1179 which is key. A 2 sided day is possible, but bounces are shorts as Only breaking/ holding the 1179 area gets market out of trouble.

(Oct 27-11:00) mike: The ES broke to a lower low after bouncing to 1173.50-1174.00 resistance. The 1167.50-1167.00 area is in the cards if 1174 not exceeded/ held.

(Oct 27-11:00) mike: trend dn day
(Oct 27-11:33) mike: 71 needs cleared / held . 67.75-66.75 must hold

(Oct 27-11:39) mike: it has been trend down after reversing 30 minutes in from 1179 to just over the 1167.50-1167.00 support into lunchtime action. The 1173.50-1174.00 area needs to be cleared and not rejected to dent the downside momentum this afternoon.

(Oct 27-11:46) mike: 72.50 = 60EMA ON 5 MIN CHART
(Oct 27-11:47) mike: 70.75 NEED DEFENDED ON A DIP to avoid rolling over

(Oct 27-13:02) mike: The ES didn't get over 1173.50-1174.00 and ground lower to 1169.25 so far. It still must break/ hold 1173.50-1174.00 to change trends. The 1167.75-1167.00 area should give a reversal if reached in the last 30 minutes or so today.

(Oct 27-13:38) mike: The 1167.75 level gave a bounce to 1171.00 so far, but the way the market acts there shouldn't be much upside without a failure. The 1173.50-1174.00 area is still key on a bounce.

(Oct 27-14:14) mike: key resist, sell if 72.50 breaks, to 71-70 zone

 

 

Tuesday- October 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 26-12:38) mike: a sell bounces day
(Oct 26-12:38) mike: 79.50-80.00 good resist, 77.50 must hold or trouble

(Oct 26-12:38) mike: The gap lower open was reversed 8 minutes in and a rally to test yesterday low just occurred. A dip needs to hold 1178 now to avoid a break down. The resistance is likely going to be sold.

(Oct 26-12:38) mike: top for morning if 79.50 area breaks , 81 r now
(Oct 26-12:38) mike: dbl top at 60ema. bounces not sticking, 60ema rejected 2 times. sell the bounce here, 78.50 supp must hold to avoid 76 area
(Oct 26-12:38) mike: The ES pulled back to 1178.50 and then bounced to double top. All bounces are shorts under that resistance.

(Oct 26-12:38) mike: range bound, 81 need hold here or 79-78 supp
(Oct 26-12:38) mike: poor chart pattern, 80.50 can give bounce, but sell tht bounce when it stalls out, 84-85 maximum

(Oct 26-12:38) mike: The 1178 level held on the pullback again and a test of the 1182-1183 area is happening. The 1180 level needs to hold to avoid a drop. Otherwise a move to 1184-85 will likely be sold.

(Oct 26-12:38) mike: top sold all day. 80.50 key. back in a while
(Oct 26-12:43) mike: 82.50 pivotal. every poke to or over reversed today a short under
(Oct 26-12:58) mike: 80.50 still key supp -
(Oct 26-12:59) mike: 82.50 is pivotal on top, 5 times reversed today
(Oct 26-13:29) mike: be short swing trade if high tedsted or a bunce stalls
(Oct 26-13:32) mike: 8200-82.50 good resist
(Oct 26-13:52) mike: The 1180 level held for a bounce to 1183.25 but that was sold again. Stay with shorts at / under 1183-84 area.

(Oct 26-13:53) mike: The 1180 level held for a bounce to 1183.25 but that was sold again. Stay with shorts at / under 1183-84 area.

(Oct 26-14:20) mike: The ES rolled over from 1182.25 and 1177.75 was reached. If held we can stay in a range, if broken then 1176.75-1176.25 would need to hold.

(Oct 26-14:32) mike: need to break/ hold over 80.50 or vulnerable/
Oct 26-15:33) mike: 81 very key now

 

 

Monday- October 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 25-09:16) mike: 1193.00 high, 89.50-90.50 was pivotal. 1185.50-1186.50 resist now supp, must hold or then 82-81 Existing Home Sales 30 minutes into trading. not as many updates today due to trading camp monday thru thurs

(Oct 25-10:19) mike: The 1185.50-1186.50 resistance turned support on the gap up open and the ES reached the 1193.00 overnight high before pulling back. That might be a high for the morning if 1191.50 is not exceeded. But, it would take a break/ hold under 1189 to turn the trends now.

(Oct 25-10:34) mike: short bounce 89.50 ,91.50 shouldnt be exceeded
(Oct 25-11:02) mike: transition lower when 89.50 broke, the 87.50 needs cleared / held or 82-81 test in the cards

(Oct 25-11:04) mike: The 1191.50 was tested but not broken and the market broke lower, and the 1182-1181 area is next unless 1187.50 exceeded/ held on a dip.

(Oct 25-12:02) mike: The ES reached 1188.00 then quickly turned down. The bounce was feeble so 1188 needs cleared/ held or another push lower is likely.

(Oct 25-12:06) mike: 86.25 trend resist
(Oct 25-12:28) mike: 81.50-80.50 next, must hold. a bounce to 85-86 area a short if a stall.

(Oct 25-13:23) mike: The ES dropped to 1182.50 and bounced. The 1186.50 area is resistance now, and 1184 is support. The ranges might be in place unless a break and hold of either level occurs.

(Oct 25-13:47) mike: 85.50-85.00 key/ transition supp
(Oct 25-13:51) mike: a short, at/ just under 87-88 zone

(Oct 25, 2010 14:35) mike: 86.50-87.00 a short, a break of 84 puts press on
(Oct 25, 2010 15:15) mike: 85.25 supp must hold
(Oct 25, 2010 15:26) mike: 86 supp now, 89.50 r
(Oct 25, 2010 15:31) mike: The ES took out 1186.50 and that now support that must hold to keep uptrends intact.
(Oct 25, 2010 15:49) mike: 81.50 needs hold on a close, bearish pattern 84 good resist

 

 

Friday- October 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 22-09:21) mike: thats upside potential... no holding over 80
(Oct 22-09:23) mike: 77.50 then 74 supp
(Oct 22-09:50) mike: resist sold/ need 78 to break
(Oct 22-09:58) mike: 78 now resist, 74 key

(Oct 22-10:11) mike: The ES popped just 1 tick over the 1180.00-1180.50 zone, and 1180 was reversed again, and a drop to 1175.50 so far. The ES needs to get over 1178 and hold to avoid trouble. The upside will not hold and 1174 is still key to hold.

(Oct 22-10:16) mike: little dbl bottom at 75.50. that needs to hold, or the wrdge pattern breaks. stair step up until broken
(Oct 22-10:35) mike: 78 held on dip,, its got to hold now, 80 area key resst to break or reverse
(Oct 22-10:44) mike: a bearish pattern, a bounce is a gift short if a pop stalls near 78.50-7900
(Oct 22-10:53) mike: no stall at 78.50 on way up, but rejection of 79.50, 1180 the key resist. scratch short
(Oct 22-10:56) mike: NQ leading this up, it needs to stay strong to hold ES up. 77 needs to hold now at lowest
(Oct 22-11:00) mike: top there it looks, a sharp break possible
(Oct 22-11:06) mike: short under 79.50-80.00
(Oct 22-11:15) mike: a high in for now, NQ on down turn.... 76.50 a transition area

(Oct 22-11:32) mike: The bounce held 1178 and then made a little double top at 1179.50 before reversing back down. We are in a range. The 1176 area looks to be pivotal, so no break down unless that is broken/ held. On top, that 1179.50 area needs cleared, not rejected again, to avoid a decent pullback.

(Oct 22-11:45) mike: close to resist in a range, scalp shorts. same near low when/if move stalls out
(Oct 22-11:49) mike: 78 good resist now,
(Oct 22-12:00) mike: couldnt even get back to 78, 74 area possible

(Oct 22-12:12) mike: The market is churning but the ES held the 1176 area while the NQ keeps pushing higher. The ES will be in trouble if the NQ breaks 2095 and doesn't quickly turn back up. Otherwise the ES looks weak and needs to get over 1178 and hold to avoid a break down later.

(Oct 22-12:16) mike: 78 rejected. fwiw i'm staying short w/ stop 79 for now

(Oct 22-13:03) mike: nipped at a top.... a dip is a buy over 2099 on NQ, 78-77 area ES -- if a stall, turn up....
(Oct 22-13:03) mike: 79 rejected again. reward / risk favors doing nothing for now
(Oct 22-13:30) mike: this is not looking good, careful if long
(Oct 22-13:37) mike: need a pop up to stay in range, not fall apart
(Oct 22-13:52) mike: thy break, any bounce will fail
(Oct 22-13:57) mike: 78 resist,,,, 79 area key and a short if they get up there. 74 on this possible
(Oct 22-14:09) mike: back to 76 area, again. a bounce will have trouble holding. watch 78, the mid point, for a turn. or call it a week

(Oct 22-14:16) mike: theres 78 for a scalp, but.... The ES made it back to 1179 and double topped before dropping down to the 1176.25 level again. It might be a good day to leave early. The 1179-1180 area is the big hurdle above, and 1176 support below. A break and hold of either area is needed, otherwise a chop around will continue.

(Oct 22-14:33) mike: 79 now rejected. i like short side up here
(Oct 22-14:36) mike: 2104-2106 on NQ is key there, a short if reversed again. SOX up 2%, extended but keeping mkt afloat

 

 

Thursday- October 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 21-09:33) mike: gotta get over 79.50 n hold, or top
(Oct 21-09:47) mike: 1181.50-1182.50 sold, now 79 area must hold. LEI top of hour
(Oct 21-10:07) mike: 1181.50-1182.50 was rejected 3 times, but staying over 79 for a change. 79 needs to hold to avoid reversal
(Oct 21-10:08) mike: 82.0-81.50 now supp .

(Oct 21-10:14) mike: The ES opened higher and rejected the 1181.50-1182.50 zone three times but staying over 1179 was bullish and the 1185.75-1186.50 is next. A pullback needs to hold 1181.50 now to keep the upside intact.

(Oct 21-10:25) mike: 83.50 now needs to hold or 82 can be tested
(Oct 21-10:31) mike: 83.50 held, but 85.75 was direct hit on resist, a short if tested and stall or reversed, 83.50 needs to hold or top could be in

(Oct 21-10:40) mike: The ES reached 1185.75 and backed off to the 1183.50 support, if 1183.50 is not defended then the trend up move could reverse and pull back towards 1182-1181 area, a key support zone now. If they push through the high then the 1186.50 level is next resistance, and 1192 a major area in front of 1198-1202 zone.

(Oct 21-10:48) mike: sell bounce to 86 , looks toppy
(Oct 21-10:51) mike: tht should be it for bounce

(Oct 21-10:59) mike: they missed 86 by 1 tick and dipped, need a break of 83.50 to dent the upside momentum. a top might not happen until afternoon, or 1190s if rejected first try .

(Oct 21-11:03) mike: scalp shorts on stalls/ rejection at resist, but bigger trend still stair step higher as long as 84.00-83.50 holds
(Oct 21-11:10) mike: ok, stalled out at resist , short under 86.50 , pressure
(Oct 21-11:11) mike: on under 83.50 , NQ cracked, its a short on a pop up too

(Oct 21-11:17) mike: The ES double topped at 1186.25 and the NQ broke pretty hard from its 2104.50-2106.25 resistance zones. Bounces should be sold now under those highs, with 1181.50 support ten 1179 area is major today.

(Oct 21-11:20) mike: 81.50 held for now, 83.50-84.00 resist now should be sold
(Oct 21-11:27) mike: 81.50 resist now
(Oct 21-11:30) mike: 81.50-82.50 good resist, need a break/ hold under 79.50-79.00 to turn all trends down.
(Oct 21-11:39) mike: if you just got short on bounce to 81.50-82.50, keep part on and cover part at 77.50 or better
(Oct 21-11:46) mike: 78.50 small resist, 79.50-80.25 strong resist ,

(Oct 21-11:53) mike: 78.50 symmetry was sold. it needs cleared, held on a dip to avoid bigger drop
(Oct 21-12:01) mike: 79.50-80.25 resist, shouldn't stay over very long if going lower / 79 now pivotal supp on a dip

(Oct 21-12:09) mike: After the last update the ES dropped to 1179.50, bounced to 1181.75 updated resistance, then fell fast to 1176.25. The bounce failed at the 1179.50-1180.25 zone and that needs exceeded / held to avoid more trouble. The market doesn't like those high areas so even a decent bounce should fail.

(Oct 21-12:17) mike: the dow cash can go for 11100, thats 72-71 on ES. vulnerable under 80.25 resist , 2093 NQ

(Oct 21-12:30) mike: channel, wedge-like pattern, a break of 78.50-78.00 rolls it over-
(Oct 21-12:41) mike: a bounce to 78.00-78.50 will be sold , but this can come unglued and drop towards 72 area , maybe 68-67

(Oct 21-12:46) mike: The ES stalled out at the updated 1179.50-1180.25 zone and broke to a new low at 1175.25 so far. The 1178-1179 is good resistance at will be a short if reached. The 1171.75-1171.00 zone must hold or the 1165 area can be tested .

(Oct 21-12:55) mike: weak , different, mkt if 77 not even exceeded
(Oct 21-13:08) mike: 78.50 resist sold, 76.75 supp, must hold to bounce better or fall
(Oct 21-13:17) mike: reject resist, 77.00-76.50 key supp

(Oct 21-13:24) mike: The ES bounced to 1178.75 resistance and turned back down. That area needs cleared and held to change things, otherwise the 1171.75-1171.00 area could still be tested.

(Oct 21-13:28) mike: 76.50 is a ''last trapped'' and transition area , must hold there
(Oct 21-13:33) mike: avoid longs until 72-71. its turned trend down , 79 key resist , under is bearish
(Oct 21-13:43) mike: 77 area pivotal resist now

(Oct 21-13:54) mike: its been trend down since shorting the 1185.75-1186.50 zone. took partial profit 77.50 , kept part, had nice re entries on day trades. a bigger picture 123 top on daily chart, top should be in, tho a good rally welcome to re short. bigger pic indicators rolled over. keep part as swing trade

(Oct 21-13:56) mike: 1165.25-1164.50 is major, an outside day if broken. , good resist 73.00-73.50 now
(Oct 21-14:04) mike: 70.75-71.50 small resist

(Oct 21-14:10) mike: 2pm low and 67.25 is .618 of move from 55.50 to todays high, a break goes to 1165.25-1164.50 zone. bounce resist at 73.00-73.75 area
(Oct 21-14:15) mike: no gusto on bounce attempt. upside wont get too far , 1165.25-1164.50 small resist rejected
(Oct 21-14:22) mike: back in 30 minutes
(Oct 21-14:58) mike: back now- at r, watch 71 for a bounce

(Oct 21-15:08) mike: wedge pattern, 72.50
(Oct 21-15:09) mike: 72.50 must hold or its broken, sell a pop under 75
(Oct 21-15:17) mike: on dip, 74 area should hold to stay in range,

(Oct 21-15:27) mike: The the 1171.75-1171.00 area was broken on the way to a 1167.25 low and a good bounce got in gear. The 1179 level is key resistance end of day, and unless its exceeded/ held the market could get hit with weakness end of day.

(Oct 21-15:40) mike: 75 was a low, a high, and is trendline supp now , its safe unless 75 breaks, if tht happens a fast drop possible
(Oct 21-15:56) mike: have a great rest of the day

 

 

 

Wednesday- October 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 20-09:19) mike: 2 sided day likely. 64-63 1st supp
(Oct 20-09:41) mike: a break lower if 64-63 breaks
(Oct 20-09:44) mike: 67 supp
(Oct 20-09:48) mike: 67.75-67.00 now key supp
(Oct 20-09:50) mike: 69 now must hold
(Oct 20-09:52) mike: 1172.75-1173.75 key, possible reversal zone
(Oct 20-09:56) mike: top if 69 breaks, 67 supp must hold to keep uptrend
(Oct 20-10:02) mike: 68.50-69.00 resist now, a short unless 69 exceeded/ held

(Oct 20-10:06) mike: The initial resistance turned into support as the ES rallied to 1171.50 before reversing back down after 22 minutes of trading. The 1164-1163 area is key support that must hold. A test of the high that reverses is a short.

(Oct 20-10:09) mike: 69 pivotal area. 66.75 needs broken held soon here

(Oct 20-10:26) mike: The ES bounced to the 1169 reversal area and headed back down TO 1164.75 so far. If the 1164-1163 area is broken, then the market is in danger of going towards the 1158 area which would be key. The 1169 area is key to break/ hold on a bounce.

(Oct 20-10:32) mike: 2-sided day per earlier. 69 cleared, a dip to 68-67 should / must hold. 1172.75-1173.75 the key resist above to short
(Oct 20-10:43) mike: 69 key per earlier. its ok over that to 72.75-73.75
(Oct 20-10:50) mike: 1173.75 resist , 71 .50-71.00 needs to hold
(Oct 20-10:55) mike: 72.25-71.75 supp, if not held a top could be in for the morning

(Oct 20-10:59) mike: The ES took out 1169, then held it on a dip, and rallied to 1174.50 so far. That should be a high for the morning, especially if 1172 is broken.

(Oct 20-11:02) mike: 72.25 key

(Oct 20-11:09) mike: Fed's Beige Book at 2pm today. a trend move into that release would be reversed. right now holding over 1169 keeps the mkt out of trouble, tho upside limited too ,

(Oct 20-11:11) mike: 123 top , 74 shouldnt be cleared/ held now
(Oct 20-11:13) mike: 71.25 supp on a dip if 74 not cleared/held soon
(Oct 20-11:20) mike: mkt holding well, as long as 72 area holds, mkt ok to try for higher levels. if broken, then things change
(Oct 20-11:34) mike: 1176.00-1176.50 rejected, 74.50-74.00 needs to hold
(Oct 20-11:42) mike: 74.50 must hold, or then 71.50 next if broken/ held

(Oct 20-11:46) mike: The ES reached the 1176.00-1176.50 zone and backed off, but it has been trend up and unless 1174.50-1174.00 is broken/ held the market can make 1 more push higher before the Beige Book at 2pm. If 1174 is broken, the trend up move changes dynamics.

(Oct 20-11:55) mike: 7450 sollid supp so far, watch NQ for reversal near 2097 , if tht happens a reversal possible then
(Oct 20-11:58) mike: a short under highs , esp NQ
(Oct 20-12:02) mike: covered short.
(Oct 20-12:03) mike: still trend up over 7450, not to fight trend up day
(Oct 20-12:03) mike: need reversal or its strong mkt
(Oct 20-12:17) mike: 77 area now supp, need to stay over it
(Oct 20-12:24) mike: its losing its luster and momentum up here, careful with any new longs. 78 must bounvce
(Oct 20-12:26) mike: NQ also rejected 2097-98 area

(Oct 20-12:33) mike: After the last update the ES held at 1174.50 then shot higher to 1179.25. The NQ rejected 2097-2098 and the upside is looking tired so 1177 needs to hold to avoid a top.

(Oct 20-12:42) mike: could bounce, but NQ a drag on any attempt. its a short on stall near 96 or so
(Oct 20-13:00) mike: bounce that fail 78.50-79.50 s short, 76.25 a key supp now
(Oct 20-13:01) mike: i need to be away 30 min. NQ action key to holding this up
(Oct 20-13:42) mike: after Beige book release look for a quick back n forth movre, then a trend move

(Oct 20-13:49) mike: Vulnerable under 79 area , a bounce will be sold. if exceeded/ held then 82 next , 74.50-7400 key supp supp
(Oct 20-14:03) mike: 76.25 still key supp,
(Oct 20-14:08) mike: short undnder 77'
(Oct 20-14:20) mike: 74.50 held, 79.50 rejcted twice , 3rd time here. . it stays in uptrend as long as 76.50 holds now

(Oct 20-14:29) mike: The ES made a double top at 1179.50 then fell to 1174.75 which is key support end of day. A break of either area should point the way for the next sizable move. 1176.50 needs to hold to keep upside from rolling over again.

(Oct 20-14:37) mike: strong as long as 78.50 holds
(Oct 20-14:46) mike: a ''prairie dog'' reversal on poke over 79.50, there's good resist up there. 78.50 r needes cleared/ held soon or to 74.50

(Oct 20-14:56) mike: 75.00 is 60ema on 5 min chart, and last low and that 7450 all there. it looks key end of day now, a break of that puts pressure on

(Oct 20-15:08) mike: a bounce off 75.50-74.50 , must hold , get over 78 and not reverse again
(Oct 20-15:14) mike: gotta clear 88 or it topped
(Oct 20-15:20) mike: 78 , typo, need to stay over, not reverse

(Oct 20, 2010 15:27) mike: its slow but if 77.50 holds they are ok , if broken 75.50-74.50 still the key trend supp

(Oct 20, 2010 15:36) mike: short 79-80 area, or stop just over tht

(Oct 20, 2010 15:39) mike: 77 good resist

(Oct 20, 2010 15:42:30 PM EST mike: 1st bounce off a low almost always sold - 77 resist. a close under 74.50 a negative sign

(Oct 20, 2010 15:56)mike: 77 area sold, top of some sort in place

 

 

Tuesday- October 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 19-09:02) mike: this should be more than a 1 day event. bounces will be sold, 1163 area, then 58 area the 2 spots where the mkt could bounce, but it could get ugly today .

(Oct 19-09:23) mike: 1min chart, 18 ema guide
(Oct 19-09:56) mike: bounce off supp should fail at 66-67 resist
(Oct 19-09:59) mike: 66 now key to break n holds

(Oct 19-10:13) mike: The gap down open was bought but the bounce didn't stick and the ES dropped to the 1162.50-1162.00 support before reversing back up. If the 1170.00-1170.50 area is not rejected then the 1174-1175 area could be seen but if 1167 breaks then a test/ break of the lows could occur.

(Oct 19-10:20) mike: 69.00-68.50 is supp, now and needs to hold that , 71.50-72.00 small resist here
(Oct 19-10:30) mike: 68.75 held, its trend supp now

(Oct 19-10:37) mike: sell against 72
(Oct 19-10:42) mike: a push under 69 needed to turn this down... 67 would be supp if 69 breaks
(Oct 19-10:49) mike: 68.75 held again. its key supp now, 73.75 resist IF 72 cleared

(Oct 19-10:59) mike: The ES had churned between 1172.00 and 1168.75, and need to stay over 1169 to avoid rolling over. A pop up to the 1173.50-1174.00 area is likely going to be reversed.

(Oct 19-11:07) mike: should break
(Oct 19-11:08) mike: 70.75 shouldnt be exceeded / held - 2078 on NQ
(Oct 19-11:21) mike: 70.75 not cleared, stay w/ short under 70.50
(Oct 19-11:29) mike: if 68.50 holds, a move up to 70.50 possible

(Oct 19-11:44) mike: The ES popped to 1172.50 and quickly reversed, then dropped to 1167.75 and turned back up. The market has been choppy in this timeframe lately, so more back and forth action is likely for awhile. For now as long as the 1168 area holds, the market will be ok, but the 1172.50 level needs cleared /held to get out of the chop and go towards 1175-1176 area.

(Oct 19-11:56) mike: 72 supp now, reversal if broken
(Oct 19-12:06) mike: sell tight stop
(Oct 19-12:06) mike: 72 supp test

(Oct 19-12:10) mike: 72 met, take it as a scalp on part, stop 73.75 on otger part w/ 70 area next if a break here
(Oct 19-12:19) mike: still vulnerable under 73.
(Oct 19-12:21) mike: 71.25070.75 tgt on break
(Oct 19-12:25) mike: 71.25-70.75 must hold here, or 68-67 area
(Oct 19-12:27) mike: stop breakeven on remaining shorts

(Oct 19-12:28) mike: 72.75 shouldn't be exceeded if going lower

(Oct 19-12:35) mike: pressure n under 72. 68-67 next supp/ tgt

(Oct 19-12:38) mike: The ES made a little 123 tp at 11173.75 and now 1172.00-1172.50 is resistance, and the 1168-1167 area needs to hold to avoid further downside.

(Oct 19-13:08) mike: The ES pulled back to 1169.50 and turned back up. The ES needs to get over 1171.50-1172.00 and hold there on a dip to get out of trouble.

(Oct 19-13:13) mike: 68-67 area should be tested , 70.00-72.50 resist
(Oct 19-13:14) mike: 70.00-70.50
(Oct 19-13:27) mike: 68-67 cover area. , 63-62 then 58.50-58.00 major could revisit
(Oct 19-13:28) mike: 69.75 resist now

(Oct 19-13:42) mike: The ES bounced to 1170.75 after the last update and a drop to the 1168-1167 area was made. The bounces off of the high have been about 2 ES points so a better bounce than that could change the trend. Still, the 1172 area would need cleared/ held to get out of trouble.

(Oct 19-13:49) mike: 67.00 well bid, its key. 69 area resist, 2 point bounces

(Oct 19-13:58) mike: 63 here important, watch for 58.50-58.00 as major. if no reversal, correction started
(Oct 19-13:59) mike: 65 resist, 67-68 key if bounce instead of collapse
(Oct 19-14:04) mike: broken mkt, 59.50 r, then 63-64 good resist

(Oct 19-14:12) mike: The ES spilled to new low at 1157.25 so far. This area is major and the market needs to turn around and take out 1163-1164 to avoid a big break down today.

(Oct 19-14:20) mike: a bounce from 59.50 to 62.50 area a short
(Oct 19-14:26) mike: ugly looking unless they get over 62.50-64.00 area
(Oct 19-14:27) mike: 1152.50-1151.50 if they keep pushing, 60.25 small resist
(Oct 19-14:40) mike: this range should break lower, vulnerable under 62
(Oct 19-14:50) mike: 20ema 63.25
(Oct 19-14:55) mike: 63.00 turned em back. 60.50 supp needs to hold on dip or low not in yet

(Oct 19-15:10) mike: this 58 area is big end of day. the 4 days of sideways broke this morn, this area key on daily/ weekly basis / under 63 is bearish as it is

(Oct 19-15:17) mike: The ES bounced to 1163.00 and reversed and a lower low at 1157.00 was made. A close over the 1158 area is needed to avoid what could be the start of something bigger.

(Oct 19-15:33) mike: 52 is next supp, watch overnight, 48.50-47.75 under that
(Oct 19-15:36) mike: 30 minutes left, short covering bounce. 58.50 key still. have a great rest of the day

 

 

Monday- October 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 18-09:09) mike: 71.75-71.25 area pivotal supp early,
(Oct 18-09:23) mike: 2 sided day likely. 74.50-76.00 resist, 1067.25-1166.75 key area sill on bigger trend
(Oct 18-09:33) mike: short under 72/73
(Oct 18-09:33) mike: follow nq
(Oct 18-09:49) mike: 75 need cleared, 70.50 should be key supp , 72.50 minor. a turn should coming by 10:10am at latest if not trend up
(Oct 18-09:59) mike: housing number in 45 seconds , 74,50 s
(Oct 18-10:01) mike: 75 needs to hold as supp
(Oct 18-10:13) mike: 2 pullbacks 2.50 point. to keep mini melt u p going need to not drop more than 2.50pts

(Oct 18-10:17) mike: The lower open was bought and the ES reached the 1178.50-1179.00 resistance so far, but it doesn't roll over unless 1176 is broken.

(Oct 18-10:27) mike: a bounce now should fail , 77 resist

(Oct 18-10:42) mike: 76.50 neededs pushed thru.... 74.50-74.00 is key now, a break of that, then stay under 75 on a bounce is what it takes to change trends

(Oct 18-11:03) mike: The 1176 level was broken, but the 1174.50 area held instead and a test of 1178.50-1179.00 zone caused a small dip, so far. That resistance needs cleared/ held or a break of 1174.50 that holds gets the market out of the morning range.

(Oct 18-11:08) mike: a larger 123 pattern. a short undr 78
(Oct 18-11:11) mike: 75.50-7600 area resist now
(Oct 18-11:26) mike: 75.25 rejected. mkt laboring , the 70.50 key on a move down

(Oct 18-11:39) mike: The 1175.50-1176.00 area was sold on the bounce so the double top at the 1178.50-1179.00 could be a bounce high as long as 1176 is not broken and held on a dip. The 1170.50-1069.50 is key on further weakness and must hold to avoid trouble.

(Oct 18-11:54) mike: 73.50 is 60ema on 5 min chart, NQ lots to give back on downside after friday.
(Oct 18-12:16) mike: a dip to 75.75-75.50 should/ must hold. ,
(Oct 18-12:20) mike: as long as 75.50 holds, the back and forth continues otherwise drop to 73.50 60ema
(Oct 18-12:46) mike: a dip will be bought, as long as 74-73 held, 4 days going sideways. it must hold

(Oct 18-13:14) mike: The market has chopped around in a narrow range, as the NQ has been a drag on rally attempts but the ES holds the 1174.00-1173.00 area. As long as that zone is held, the upside has a chance to get going but must take out 1179 and not quickly reverse to get any decent move up going. If 1174 is broken, then a bounce that follows would set up a short unless its quickly reversed after a break.

(Oct 18-13:31) mike: 74.50 now looks key, last low and 60ema on 5 min chart. need to bounce off it, or things changing
(Oct 18-13:57) mike: wedge , must hold 75.50
(Oct 18-14:05) mike: sell under 76.75 ,
(Oct 18-14:06) mike: 2089.50 on NQ is ''must reverse'' supp
(Oct 18-14:10) mike: stand aside , 77 to 75 , need breakout . dips are holding so far
(Oct 18-14:12) mike: 75 now 60ema on 5 min, it must be defended
(Oct 18-14:22) mike: a dip should hold 77.00-76.50 area at lowest if going higher.
(Oct 18-14:27) mike: 78.50-79.00 has been strong resist/ 80 area, then 85-86 if 79 exceeded/ held
(Oct 18-14:33) mike: 79 not cleared yet, 77.25-76.75 needs to hold to keep break out chance alive

(Oct 18-14:54) mike: The ES got over 1176.75 which was top of the afternoon range and ran up to 1179.00 so far. A break/ hold over that is needed to keep upside going, possibly through 1180. But if 1177.50 breaks then the market becomes vulnerable.

(Oct 18-15:00) mike: 1181.00-1182.00 in tthe cards if 78 holds
(Oct 18-15:03) mike: 78.75 needs to hold to squeeze this higher
(Oct 18-15:09) mike: 79 now supp, needs to hold. 1181.00-1182.00 resist , if cleared/ held 86 in cards
(Oct 18-15:12) mike: 80.25 is supp, a pop up tht reverses 82 could make dbl top
(Oct 18-15:20) mike: 79.50-79.00 need hold, high for day in

(Oct 18-15:24) mike: The ES reached the 1181.00-1182.00 and reversed while the NQ reached its 2101.50-2104.25 zone and reversed. The 1179.00-1178.50 area must hold to avoid a reversal pattern. A test of the 1181.00-1182.00 area that reverses sets up a short.

(Oct 18-15:29) mike: 79.50 held , 2097.50 high area from friday on NQ. too. both key , 86 IF no 123 top at 81-82 area
(Oct 18-15:37) mike: 79.50 to 82, no short unless 81 broken
(Oct 18-15:39) mike: 81 needs to hold or next bounce should fail
(Oct 18-15:41) mike: 81 held, trend up still. unless broken
(Oct 18-15:45) mike: if long would exit here , low made in first 15 min high same
(Oct 18-15:48) mike: shorts up here, 123 top 82 resist strong
(Oct 18-15:52) mike: earning after the bell. go home flat
(Oct 18-16:11) mike: sell uder 82'

 

Friday- October 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 15-09:07) mike: a 123 top at 79.50-80.00. thats very good resist
(Oct 15-09:08) mike: the rally took off from 70-69 and thats still key support
(Oct 15-09:32) mike: resist sold, scalp
(Oct 15-09:33) mike: cover 77, stop b/e on rest to 74
(Oct 15-09:34) mike: 1178.50-1179.00 needs cleared/ held
(Oct 15-09:39) mike: 74 should test to fill gap, must hold there. mich sentiment 9;55am
(Oct 15-09:42) mike: gap filled, stop at 77 on remaining shorts, 70-69 key
(Oct 15-09:49) mike: lower stop to 75
(Oct 15-09:55) mike: 73.50 stop
(Oct 15-09:56) mike: flat now, 70-69 must hold
(Oct 15-10:04) mike: a short unless 74 cleared/ held

(Oct 15-10:09) mike: The gap up open at the 1178.50-1179.00 resistance set up a short and the ES fell to 1168 so far. Bounces will be shorts still unless 1174 is cleared/ held on a dip.

(Oct 15-10:17) mike: pressure on under 70.50
(Oct 15-10:27) mike: a bounce of 3.00-3.50 points should reverses if staying trend down
(Oct 15-10:31) mike: that was 2.75 pt bounce, the pace continues until a better bounce
(Oct 15-10:44) mike: 65.50 supp, must stay over , or can breaks lows
(Oct 15-10:48) mike: 66.00-65.50 must reverse , or lows tested

(Oct 15-10:54) mike: The ES was trend down to test the 1162.50 low from Thursday, but averted getting hit hard (so far) by making a 123 bottom and bounced from that area. The 1170.50 area is a key area and should be sold if the market is going lower again.

(Oct 15-11:08) mike: 68.00-67.75 supp looks key , should hold on dip
(Oct 15-11:16) mike: 69.00-68.50 area trend supp , needs to stay over to avoid reversal
(Oct 15-11:29) mike: 69 held. 72.50 resist

(Oct 15-11:39) mike: The ES took out 1170.50 then held updated 1169.00-1168.50 support as the market keeps coming back. As long as 1171.50 holds the uptrend continues. If broken, then a high could be in place.

(Oct 15-11:53) mike: that should be a good high, a wedge just broke so a bounce is a short , especially if 72 area tested n stall/reverse but may not get back up there. ES down 4 pts NQ up 17.50...

(Oct 15-12:19) mike: a two-sided day going. if 70 is exceeded/ held then 74 test or higher gets sld.
(Oct 15-12:20) mike: fyi, i'll audio update for awhile after lunchtime action
(Oct 15-12:28) mike: 70.50 not cleared, 68.50 supp

(Oct 15-13:06) mike: we're going to get this choppy back and forth action. 72.50-74.00 zone resist, 66 area on bottom. the early moves were easier trading. its tricky in here. but i'll still turn on audio in a bit.

(Oct 15-13:11) mike: The early action was good with a high at resistance and a low just above yesterday's 1162.50 low. The action since has been sporadic. The key resistance is at 1173.50-1174.00 area, and support at the 1166 area. A breakout that sticks is needed to get out of the choppy action. Right now the market is in decent shape unless 1169.50 breaks.

(Oct 15-13:22) mike: must quickly bounce, audio in 5 min
(Oct 15-13:25) mike: audio on. i'm staying flat fwiw

 

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Oct 15-14:00) mike: audio off. a bounce tht under 71.50 a short

(Oct 15-14:06) mike: The ES ejected the 1171.00-11711.50 area and that is a short if reached again and rejected, or stalls. A break of the 1166 area that is not quickly reversed would be a bad sign, but if reversed a decent snap back can occur.

(Oct 15-14:17) mike: at resist, but small dbl bottom at 67 area seen around noon. a test should hold. a dip from here to 69 area is as far as a dip should go.

(Oct 15-14:25) mike: 69.25 dip low, if that's held they push higher
(Oct 15-14:32) mike: 72.50 resist
(Oct 15-14:35) mike: to 73.25 if 72.50 cut thru, not rejected
(Oct 15-14:40) mike: if long from dip, 72.50 a bit trouble -- 71.50-70.50 trend up supp need to hold now
(Oct 15-14:45) mike: a bounce to a lower high that reverses on 2 min chart a 123 top possible

(Oct 15-14:50) mike: they still having trouble around 73 , if 69.50 breaks, move likely over. i need to leave early today. have a great rest of the day and weekend.

(Oct 15-14:58) mike: The ES reversed up from 1167.00, but then failed again at the 1173 area from 2 other bounces. The 1169.50 needs to hold to avoid end of day pullback. Have a great weekend.

 

 

Thursday- October 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 14-09:16) mike: per last night, this should be topping , 75.50-76.00 r 1 now, 1178.50-1179.00 was sold on econ release
(Oct 14-09:41) mike: 70 reversed, key supp, 75.00-75.50 resist
(Oct 14-09:47) mike: 75 rejected a bit, 72.50 needs held or quickly reversed
(Oct 14-09:55) mike: under 75 trend down
(Oct 14-10:01) mike: bounce off 69.50, 7250-73.00 r
(Oct 14-10:05) mike: 72.50 looks pivotal now, lows at supp, high at resist, its mid point of a teeter-totter

(Oct 14-10:11) mike: The ES opened lower and bounced from 1170.00 to 1175.00 updated resistance, then dropped to 1169.50 and bounced to 1172.50-1173.00 updated resistance. The 1175 level needs cleared / held to avoid trouble now.

(Oct 14-10:22) mike: initial supp tested 3 times and held. there shouldn't be a big move up, but the patterns don't break down unless/ until 1170.00-1169.00 is broken and held on a bounce. / upside need break / hold over 73 soon

(Oct 14-10:28) mike: 75 area some rejection, 73 needs to hold
(Oct 14-10:41) mike: dbl top 75 resist, 73 needs to hold on dip to avoid reversal
(Oct 14-10:51) mike: the 73-72 area is pivotal now, 74.50 should hold if trend is strong,
(Oct 14-10:52) mike: if 74.50 break, the next bounce a short
(Oct 14-10:55) mike: high should be in ,
(Oct 14-10:58) mike: to 73.50-73.00 area, must bounce there or it will gather momentum

(Oct 14-11:05) mike: The ES bounced to 1175.25 and then rolled over again. The 1172.50 area is pivotal, if broken note that the 1170-1169 zone held 3 times early, and if that breaks then the market is not in very good shape and then the 1064.00-1162.25 zone could be seen on this leg down.

(Oct 14-11:08) mike: scalp out of partial shorts at 73-72 zone, its range bound until broken/ held . watch 74.50 for a reversal/ 123 top potential
(Oct 14-11:16) mike: wedge break pattern , 74 good r now
(Oct 14-11:19) mike: key here. a hold under 73 would put pressure on
(Oct 14-11:26) mike: 73 area now good resist
(Oct 14-11:31) mike: good rejection of 73 area. lows are next
(Oct 14-11:39) mike: if 70-69 break / hold, 64 area possible
(Oct 14-11:44) mike: need more then feeble bounce, 71.50 resist now, shouldnt be exceeded
(Oct 14-11:48) mike: i'm covering part here
(Oct 14-11:49) mike: the rest to the 58.50 area. to see if it holds or this breaks lose on downside
(Oct 14-12:03) mike: key in here , 70.50 area

(Oct 14-12:15) mike: The ES broke to lower low at 1167.25 and turned up but unless 1170.50 is cleared/ held a test of the lows / or lower is likely. A double bottom is possible if the market is not starting a good sized correction,

(Oct 14-12:20) mike: we nailed the key areas so far, even tho the exit at 67.50 wasnt at a supp. for me its a mkt going into a change, bounces will be gift shorts when upside stalls out like these others today.

(Oct 14-12:26) mike: 69.25 resist now
(Oct 14-12:47) mike: a pop to 68.50 should be sold.
(Oct 14-12:57) mike: 68.090-67.75 should/ must hold for scalp long
(Oct 14-13:00) mike: not buying just cover part short
(Oct 14-13:03) mike: the ES needs to get over that 68.50 and hold it, not reverse, to get out of trouble here
(Oct 14-13:06) mike: 20ema on 5 min at 68.75, key , to clear n hold over , trend dn otherwise
(Oct 14-13:10) mike: 1064.00-1162.25 should try n hold, bt fail. 58.50 the biggie below . 67 area resist now
(Oct 14-13:15) mike: 67 sold, its key to gt over n hold now

(Oct 14-13:20) mike: After the last update the ES stalled and reversed from just under 1170.50 resistance and has spilled to 1064.00-1162.25 support so far. The trend down move continues unless 1167 is exceeded and then holds on a dip. the bounces have no gusto, so it will take a real change to pull that off.

(Oct 14-13:38) mike: best bounce, a dip should find buyers this next dip
(Oct 14-13:54) mike: 67 broken/ held. it supp in uptrend now
(Oct 14-13:55) mike: 70.50 resist key
(Oct 14-14:02) mike: avoid long for now,
(Oct 14-14:02) mike: 69 was old supp, it failed there, must clear that , its a sell up there

(Oct 14-14:14) mike: The ES managed a decent bounce that cleared/ held 1167 but it failed at the 1169 prior support. Right now the market still not out of trouble, even a decent bounce will be sold so favor that side unless the 1169-1170 area is exceeded with some power and then turns solid support on a dip.

(Oct 14-14:30) mike: 67.50 , then 89 the trend resist. 64 or lower possible. closing 90 min, this range key end of day for bigger pic
(Oct 14-14:39) mike: dbl bottom at support, need to hold or this is more than a 1 day deal
(Oct 14-14:44) mike: 67 area shouldnt be exceeded
(Oct 14-14:45) mike: if short from higher , i'm staying w/ part short for a few days.

(Oct 14-14:50) mike: short covering bounce to 66.50 or so, a failure there is still bearish. if 64 breaks, n no fast turn up, the 1158.25-1157.75 can be seen. thats the major area, and possible buy in the morning.

(Oct 14-14:56) mike: for the less than half of the group who is in here, i'll audio update part of tomorrow if interested. let me know. its been a good trading day, per last night update indicators bearish. s/r is obeyed all day... but many missing when it gets fast. i'm making a few changes after trading camp, but if you have ideas as to why , drop me an email tho i can't promise i'll be able to reply to them all..

(Oct 14-15:06) mike: 62.50 was the bottom of tht support band, but its in trouble too if 64.50 not cleared/ held
(Oct 14-15:14) mike: 64.50-64.00 need to hold or they could close near lows / 66.50-67.00 small resist
(Oct 14-15:23) mike: 66.50-67.00 met, 68.25 is bigger trend resist.. 65.50 area now supp
(Oct 14-15:25) mike: should dip to 66.00-65.50 n turn up, if its out of trouble
(Oct 14-15:32) mike: reversed near good resist, dip to supp and turn up... 65.50 max to hold or doesn't avoid trouble
(Oct 14-15:37) mike: a decent long trade, 69-70 good resist to sell if reached n move stalls/ reverses. have a good rest of the day

 

Tuesday- October 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Oct 12, 2010 9:21 mike: bounces will fail today

Oct 12, 2010 9:34 mike: 58.25 resist

Oct 12, 2010 9:51 mike: 1151.50-1151.00 major, unless a break / hld over 1158-1159, tis is a 5-7% correction starting

Oct 12, 2010 10:16 mike: 58.-59 resist, 55.50-55.00 supp on pullback needs to hold

Oct 12, 2010 10:28 mike: The market opened lower and the ES dropped to 1152.00 (1151.50-1151.00 major support) before reversing and bouncing to the 1158 area so far. The 1155.50 level needs to hold or a roll over starts. IF the 1158 is cleared/ held then the 1162 area is key resistance and should be a very good short if reached and rejected.

Oct 12, 2010 10:41 mike: 55.50 held, but mkt still is vulnerable unless 58 cleared/ held

Oct 12, 2010 10:45 mike: 60.50 equal move symmetry

Oct 12, 2010 10:49 mike: 1160.50 missed by 1 tick so far, now 1158.25-1157.75 supp/ transition area

Oct 12, 2010 11:00 mike: 60.50 should not be exceeded/ held . a break of 57.75 breaks trend up move

Oct 12, 2010 11:10 mike: The ES pulled back to 1155.75 and held and the ES is headed towards 1162 area. A high up there is possible. The 1158.25-115.75 area is trend up support that must hold to avoid a reversal.

Oct 12, 2010 11:46 mike: those could be highs for this move up. but if it stays over 58.25 in trend up into Fed minutes at 2pm, reversal highlt likely

Oct 12, 2010 11:59 mike: a 123 type top pattern possible if 1 more pop up towards 61.. the 58.25-57.75 still key for trend

Oct 12, 2010 12:23 mike: The ES pulled back to 1158.75 and held so far. The move is losing momentum so a push through 1161 area and hold to keep the upside going into the Fed minutes. Otherwise a high can occur early.


Oct 12, 2010 12:25 mike: 61.50 was quickly rejected, sell a test, if high not in already here , 59.50 must hold here

Oct 12, 2010 12:58 mike: 59.50 resist now,

Oct 12, 2010 13:24 mike: after Fed minutes we should get some up, down, up type move - or opposite of that . 1158.25-1157.5 is still pivotal

(Oct 12-14:01) mike: 58.25 held , its key still
(Oct 12-14:09) mike: 60.50 must hold
(Oct 12-14:16) mike: 63.50 trend vsupp
(Oct 12-14:21) mike: 1166.25-1166.75 ES, 2039.50-2040.50 NQ is w/i 1% of a top
(Oct 12-14:23) mike: 62.50-61.50 supp must hold or stair step up breaks

(Oct 12-14:37) mike: The sprint higher failed just under 1166.25-1166.75 on the ES, 2039.50-2040.50 on the NQ and backed off. A test of those areas is a short, and the 1158.25-1157.75 is now a major area today/

(Oct 12-15:12) mike: mkt well bid on dips, so 61.75 should hold. watch 66 area for reversal
(Oct 12-15:23) mike: 66.50 met, but 64.50 supp, easier trade

(Oct 12-15:27) mike: 1171.50-1172.50 is last resist in front of melt up towards 1182 then 1188-92 zone. a pullback should start there or lower , then test 64 area which dsupp now

(Oct 12-15:31) mike: May 12/13 high area (just before the "flash crash") at the 1172.87-1173.57 area on the SP500 cash

(Oct 12-15:53) mike: 123 pattern at 68/.25, watch 65-64 area for trend supp overnight. should hold to keep this going / have a good rest of the day.
(Oct 12-16:00) mike: 65.50-64.50 , if tht breaks a high in. take care

 

 

Monday- October 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 11-09:47) mike: 1163.50-1164.00 reversed, key now

(Oct 11-10:20) mike: 62.25 needs to hold

(Oct 11-10:32) mike: dips are 2 points on ES. damage done if dip is more that 2 pts, and especially if 62 breaks
(Oct 11-10:36) mike: 2 pts , still, vix dropped 1.49 pts to 19.19, red flags

(Oct 11-10:52) mike: 62.50-63.00 area good resist

(Oct 11-11:16) mike: 62.50 turned back, 2029 area NQ

(Oct 11-11:38) mike: 62.75-62.50 needs hold on a dip

(Oct 11-11:51) mike: 62.75 held, its key now

(Oct 11-12:02) mike: 123 pattern, if 62.50 breaks and not quickly reversed back up , bottom of this range possible , 60.50-60.00 key supp

(Oct 11-12:26) mike: 4 POINT RANGE FROM 64 TO 60 AREA. 62 mid range is pivotal ,

(Oct 11-12:48) mike: a pop up to 64-65 area a short, for a scalp at least , good resist there so far. 62.50-62.00 needs to hold or high in likely

(Oct 11-13:07) mike: 62.50 holding, but bounce should fail , a brake of 62.50 could get momentum

(Oct 11-13:13) mike: if there is going to be a good move today, the 2:20-2:40pm timeframe is when it should do something... can avoid this chop.. Fed Minutes tomorrow, regular mkt again.

(Oct 11-13:58) mike: 64 reversed 3 times now, small shorts up there

(Oct 11-14:13) mike: 64.25 shouldn't be exceeded now, 62 still pivotal to break/ hold

(Oct 11-14:27) mike: if there is going to be a move out of this range it should start soon. , this 9% drop in the Vix makes put options relatively cheap

(Oct 11-14:48) mike: a close under 64 is bearish . short better odds , only problem with that here is damage not done yet if 62.25 holds, weight of evidence titled short

(Oct 11-15:11) mike: 62.50 gave a bounce, no hold given technicals , and 64 area rejected a number of times, and slow day -- have a good rest of the day.

(Oct 11-15:22) mike: 62.50-63.25 good resist if reached
(Oct 11-15:32) mike: if in a small short from 64 area and its a day trade, 1158.00-1157.25 zone cover. holding partial short overnight
(Oct 11-15:42) mike: 1158.00-1157.25 key, a close under can start a 5-7% correction

 

 

Friday- October 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 08-08:53) mike: 1158.00-1158.75 SOLD PRE OPEN, KEY AREA, VIX give sell sig on this
(Oct 08-09:42) mike: 1153.00-1152.25 still key, 1158.00-1158.75 resist reversal area l
(Oct 08-10:09) mike: 5 tests of 57.50-58.00 rejected

(Oct 08-10:30) mike: The ES bounced from the 1153.00-1152.25 support to just under the 1158.00-1158.75 zone and reversed. The bounces will be shorting opportunities as long as 1155 is not exceeded/ held

(Oct 08-10:49) mike: 55 rejected, thats need to clear/ hold on a dip to get turned up
(Oct 08-10:57) mike: 56.00-56.50 small resist, 53.25 is a key level to keep trend rolling over
(Oct 08-11:05) mike: 57.50-58.50 resist, but 55 good supp, should / must hold on dip

(Oct 08-11:16) mike: as long as 56 holds, a push over 58 sends towards 61.50-62.50 =possible= but will be sold if reached

(Oct 08-11:27) mike: The ES cleared 1155 and held and the ES reached 1160.25 but backed off. The 1158.50-1158.00 is trend up support, and if broken then 1156 area needs to hold to avoid a reversal.

(Oct 08-11:36) mike: 59 needs held, 61.50 resist turned dn
(Oct 08-11:40) mike: 59 held so far, any further and a top at 61.50 resisst becomes more likely.
(Oct 08-11:51) mike: its ok over 59, but 123 top pattern possible
(Oct 08-12:01) mike: 123 vop, 59 break needed to turn trends
(Oct 08-12:05) mike: 61 shouldnt be exceeded, 58.50 target 1

(Oct 08-12:20) mike: The 1161.50-1162.50 resistance was reached and the market has gone sideways since. The 1158.50-1158.00 area needs to hold now to keep from reversing and testing 1156-1155 which would be key. Above 1158.50-1158.00 the market will be okay, but reversing if broken.

(Oct 08-12:37) mike: tough call between 61.50 and 58.50... trends up as long as 58.50 holds so bulls in charge for now still
(Oct 08-12:45) mike: 61 now supp, 65-66 area possuble yet
(Oct 08-12:47) mike: trend up still as long as 60.50 holds
(Oct 08-12:55) mike: 61 area held, trend up supp. need NQ to turn up here for ES to try for 65-66
(Oct 08-13:04) mike: mkt lost mo, if 61 breaks a bounce after is a short, 58.50 now a major area
(Oct 08-13:10) mike: clustr of supp at 61 need to hold or trend day losing luster
(Oct 08-13:24) mike: broke, sell bounce dn to 58.50-57.75 area
(Oct 08-13:31) mike: 61.75-62.00 resist now
(Oct 08-13:37) mike: need to drop thru 60 on ES, 11,000 DOW CASH to roll over. if 61.50 not cleared soon it will break

(Oct 08-13:42) mike: The ES reached the 1162.50 level, top of the 1161.50-1162.50 zone and turned down, however the 1158.50 level needs broken on this move to be more than a pullback.

stay w/ shorts to there

(Oct 08-13:46) mike: 56 could be seen but cover some 58.50 or better, trail stop
(Oct 08-13:51) mike: 60 resist now
(Oct 08-13:57) mike: 60 just missed its still resist

(Oct 08-14:12) mike: The ES broke 1158.50 and the boince failed just under 1160 and unless that's exceeded/ held on a dip, then the market is vulnerable and likely double top is solid.

(Oct 08-14:26) mike: better bounce than normal, a dip to 59.50-59.25 area at deepist should hold if the bounce is going to stick
(Oct 08-14:34) mike: 59.50 needs to hold here to avoid turning own
(Oct 08-14:43) mike: as long as 60 .25 holds , 62.50 can be exceeded ,
(Oct 08-14:52) mike: a pop up to 61 that reverses is a short

(Oct 08-15:07) mike: The ES got over 1160 but reversed at 1161.75 and even though the market has been strong, that should be a short if 1161.50-1162.50 is tested -- and the move is rejected again. If 1162.50 is cleared/held, 1165-66 is possible but won't hold. The 1158-1157 area is key support end of day now, and a drop to that area will hold if the market is still strong and not making a top.

(Oct 08-15:18) mike: the zone was exceeded by 1 tick then backed off. but strong mkt, scratct short until trend changes, 61.50 now needs to hold to keep the uptrend ,

(Oct 08-15:23) mike: trying to hold here, but its a short now tht trend broke/ vix gonna give 3 / 4 sell sigs
(Oct 08-15:36) mike: 60.75-59.75 area iskey support, 64.75-66.00 resist .
(Oct 08-15:44) mike: should get to 64.75 , 62.50 now supp....
(Oct 08-15:48) mike: 62.50 held , but 64.75-66.00 a short if they get there
(Oct 08-15:59) mike: just missd short zone. its set up nicly tho. have a good holiday w/e.

 

 

Thursday- October 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 07-09:19) mike: 55 key supp
(Oct 07-09:45) mike: 58.50 r
(Oct 07-10:03) mike: held supp, just focus short for now , 56-57 needs cleared/ held - not sold in to
(Oct 07-10:05) mike: 56.50 area 1st key resist
(Oct 07-10:12) mike: stall at 56 , 54 needs broken soon
(Oct 07-10:19) mike: 54 area held,

(Oct 07-10:25) mike: The gap up open was sold from just under the 1161.50-1162.50 resistance and the ES dropped to just over the 1151.50-1151.00 key support. As long as the 1152-1151 area is defended, no damage done though the upside should be limited. The 1158.50 area is next resistance. If the highs are tested and rejected, it sets up a short for a pullback then to 1156 area. If 1151 breaks, a bounce will be sold if it happens before noon.

(Oct 07-10:29) mike: 56 looks pivotal. if broken, trends change,
(Oct 07-10:44) mike: couldn't get thru 58.50, a bounce to 57.00 area that stall or reversed set up 123 top , tho top in for today it looks
(Oct 07-11:00) mike: 123 top, 53.00 supp under 56.5

(Oct 07-11:01) mike: After the last update the ES reached 1158.00 and stalled before pulling back to 1154.50. The bounce to 1156.50 reversed, making a 123 top and that should be high in place. The 1153 needs to hold or else a break to lows is possible.

(Oct 07-11:10) mike: 53 met ,. 54.50-55.00 resist now. exit - enter at the s/r areas
(Oct 07-11:19) mike: 55 key now

(Oct 07-11:26) mike: The 1153 level was reached but holding so far. If 1152 area breaks, and there is no quick reversal back up, then a topping pattern could be starting and then 1153 would be resistance. Otherwise the market will likely chop between 1158 and 1153 until there is a solid break on either side.

(Oct 07-11:37) mike: the 10940-10935 area on Dow cash has been holding as good supp, its holding this up. , and 1152 area on ES. that is range/ trend support, must stay over that or the mkt will break down. seems to be less energy generated on upside, not sticking today. caution on new longs up here,

(Oct 07-11:55) mike: it acts like its going to break 52-51
(Oct 07-12:06) mike: 1151.50-1151.00 must hold, 54 now trend resist. 2007 NQ
(Oct 07-12:23) mike: 53.75 rejected, its key resist now

(Oct 07-12:29) mike: 1147.75-1147.00 next good supp, then 44 area is major
(Oct 07-12:37) mike: The ES finally broke, and now the 1153-1154 area is resistance that shouldn't be exceeded. The 1147.75-1147.00 area held so far but that should be taken out if 1150 not cleared.

(Oct 07-13:01) mike: low at supp, but feeble bounce/ 50 area key r now
(Oct 07-13:34) mike: over 50.25 they have a chance to squeeze shorts . 49.50 supp if not held
(Oct 07-13:36) mike: 50.50 now good resist if a pop up from 49.50

(Oct 07-13:44) mike: short covering in front of employment report. we had better trade opportunities today, dont get chewed up in the chop

(Oct 07-13:58) mike: The ES bounced to 1151.25 then fell to 1149.00, but then snapped right back to the 1153-1154 area. The short covering bounce is underway, and as long as 1151 is held on a pullback the market will be in decent shape to end the day.

(Oct 07-14:09) mike: ES stair step higher over 51.50, but NQ needs to get going up or its a cave in here late day
(Oct 07-14:29) mike: toppy , a bounce here will be sold , 52.50 supp must bounce
(Oct 07-14:54) mike: the 52.00-51.50 area needs to hold to keep stair step up going

 

 

Wednesday- October 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 06-9:12) mike: they need to hold 54 or they breaking down

(Oct 06-9:42)mike: dbl tops,

(Oct 06-9:51) mike: 54 area key supp. bounces not going to stick/ 57 resist 2018 on NQ

(Oct 06-10:07) mike: a dip should hold 57.50 to keep going up, otherwise 1154.50 short term key supp, mkt must at over
(Oct 06-10:11) mike: 57.50 held but wedge
(Oct 06-10:19) mike: a double top, short under 58.75 ES, NQ weaker n leading
(Oct 06-10:21) mike: The ES made a double top at 1158.75 and NQ very weak, short bounces under the highs, the NQ especially.

(Oct 06-10:29) mike: 56.50 resist, 54.50 is good cluster of supp , must hold or mkt in a bit of trouble then
(Oct 06-10:30) mike: 56.50 rejected, its trend resist

(Oct 06-10:53) mike: The ES dropped to 1154.25 and held so far. The 1154-1153 area is key to hold over. If that area is broken and there is not a quick reversal back up, then it's a chink in the bull trend and a drop towards the 1148.75-1147.50 area is next. To avoid that, 1157 area needs cleared and held.

(Oct 06-11:19) mike: should break
(Oct 06-11:23) mike: es needs to get over 55.50 soon to not roll over
(Oct 06-11:33) mike: 56 should hold to keep upside going.

(Oct 06-11:56) mike: 56 must hold now, or a reversal
(Oct 06-12:10) mike: The ES took out 1157 and is holding 11156.25 area on a dip, and the market is ok unless/ until broken. The 1161-1162 would be next resistance if the highs are cleared / held.

(Oct 06-12:17) mike: must hold, its acting top heavy
(Oct 06-12:25) mike: 54 area test will be major decision area this afternoon / nq made 2 123 type top, its patterns are cleaner today , and its down 14 pts, ES up 1
(Oct 06-12:28) mike: The market doesn't like it up there around 1158 on ES, it's a short on any decent bounce. The 1156 area is good resistance now.

(Oct 06-12:56) mike: bounce failed just under 56. tht key resist now
(Oct 06-13:14) mike: watch 53.75 resist if 52.50 exceeded
(Oct 06-13:28) mike: no change in trend unless 53 is cleared now, a transition zone
(Oct 06-13:31) mike: After the last update the ES bounced to 1155.50 then rolled over and fell to 1151.00. That could be a low, but there is good resistance at the 1153.50-1154.00 area that will be sold if the things are changing to bearish short term.

(Oct 06-13:51) mike: 53.50-54.00 will be key in last hour, the trends are down under that
(Oct 06-14:10) mike: rejection of 54 area , 2000 NQ mkt still weak.
(Oct 06-14:17) mike: The bounce failed after reaching 1154.25 and that is the key area end of day. The action has been bearish and should continue towards 1148-1147 unless a short covering move holds this up and 1154 is cleared again.

(Oct 06-14:30) mike: watch stall 54 for a pullback. / drop to 52.50 area
(Oct 06-14:40) mike: a dip tht holds 53..50-53.00 keeps it from lower lows , but if broken, not good

(Oct 06-14:50) mike: 53.00-52.50 supp was well bid , must hold or wedge breaks.
(Oct 06-15:06) mike: 53 needs reversed fast, or test lows
(Oct 06-15:08) mike: 53.25 reversed, but break unless 54.00-54.50 resist taken out/ held
(Oct 06-15:19) mike: slow but mkt vulnerable unless 53.50 exceeded/ held
(Oct 06-15:44) mike: hold over 53.75 can hold it up push towards 55.50 56.50 ,

 

 

Tuesday- October 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


[Oct 5, 2010 9:20] mike 2 sided action today ,

[Oct 5, 2010 9:41] mike 40.50 s1

[Oct 5, 2010 9:52] mike ISM top of the hour,

[Oct 5, 2010 9:59] mike 123 , 45 resist key

[Oct 5, 2010 10:01] mike 45 supp, 42 key sup , need to hold
[Oct 5, 2010 10:05] mike 45.50-44.75 needs to hold
[Oct 5, 2010 9:09] mike 44.75 held, but bounce should fail under 48

[Oct 5, 2010 10:20] mike The gap up open was sold after touching 1145.50 and a dip to 1142.00 held before popping over the 1147.75-1148.25 zone. That was quickly reversed, but 1144.75 is now support that needs to hold to keep the trend from rolling over. good trading, Mike

[Oct 5, 2010 10:24] mike 47.75-48.25 was held for only about 1 minute. 44.75 holding, but thats good resist , needs plowed thru

[Oct 5, 2010 10:30] mike expect 2 sided action unless 44.50, or more important 1142 breaks -- or 1153-1154 area is cleared, not rejected .

[Oct 5, 2010 10:37] mike The ES held right at 1144.75 and turned back up, and pushed to a higher high at 1150 so far. The bids are coming in on dip, but a 2 sided day is most likely unless 1144.75 is broken or 1153-1154 is cleared and held, not rejected. good trading, Mike

[Oct 5, 2010 10:38] mike 48 area now trend supp,

[Oct 5, 2010 10:45] mike 48.50-48.00 key on a pullback, NQ move parabolic,

[Oct 5, 2010 10:52] mike a break of 50 here goes to 49.00-48.50, it needs defended

[Oct 5, 2010 11:01] mike sel up here, 50.50 resist
[Oct 5, 2010 11:05] mike 50.50 not exceeded yet, a dip to 4900-48.50 supp should must hold.

[Oct 5, 2010 11:29] mike the move flattening out, needs to stay over 49.50-49.00 or its going to give a 3.50-4.50 point dip.

[Oct 5, 2010 11:35] mike 51.50 tested 3 times, must push thru on 4th try

[Oct 5, 2010 11:38] mike 49.50 now the key supp,

[Oct 5, 2010 11:50] mike The ES broke a small range and rallied to a new high for the move at 1154.75. A pullback should be small if that's not a double top and they are going higher. The 1151.50 should be solid support, if broken then 1149.50 must hold or we get reversal action. good trading, Mike

[Oct 5, 2010 12:07] mike another small dip held. 52.50 should be key now to hold , i think a test of high or bit higher is a short if stall

[Oct 5, 2010 12:19] mike The ES had a pullback to 1152.25 so far, so no damage done. A test of the high that stalls/ reverses should set up a short but all trend will be up unless/ until 1151.50 is broken for now. good trading, Mike

[Oct 5, 2010 12:33] mike ran out of steam, nq a short up near 2020 w/ a fairly tight stop if it gets back up there n stalls out

[Oct 5, 2010 12:42] mike they'd need to stall/ reverse up there... it is not best odds on sort side unless 52.50-51.50 breaks tho. just beware of revrsal possibility there

[Oct 5, 2010 12:48] mike 56-58 next resist, then 62 areea

[Oct 5, 2010 12:51] mike however, if 56-58 reached and rejected it could be a daily top. only if 52.50 broken then

[Oct 5, 2010 13:03] mike seling nq pops 19-20 area , tight stop
[Oct 5, 2010 13:05] mike scalp trades, bulls still in chrge over 52.50 on ES
[Oct 5, 2010 13:09] mike The market continues its gring higher in a trend up mode. A reaction from around 1156-1158 is possible up here, but still its trend up unless 1152.50 is broken on the downside.

[Oct 5, 2010 13:16] mike at 56-58 zone, careful w/ longs it could be a high if 55.00-54.50 supp not held

[Oct 5, 2010 13:23] mike dips on ES have been small, about 2.00-2.50 points. if they drop that much or less than that, then this trend up grind can continue. if more, then toppy type action starting

[Oct 5, 2010 13:57] mike 2.25 point dip. trend up still in gear tho 56-58 good resist.

[Oct 5, 2010 14:36] mike buyers go away up in 56.50-58.00 area , 54 area needs to hold

[Oct 5, 2010 14:54] mike 54.50 held... any more than tht can change things

[Oct 5, 2010 15:01] mike if they keep this going, 61-62 area next resist. . 2.50 pint dip should be maximum tto keep this going

[Oct 5, 2010 15:11] mike i need to leave soon. small dbl top, but 54.50-53.50 supp more important. should/ must hold. no nightly update tonight, see you in the morning. have a good rest of the day.

[Oct 5, 2010 15:42] mike if 56.50 not held, a high in

 

 

Monday- October 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 04-09:29) mike: Pending Home Sales 10am
(Oct 04-09:36) mike: nq weak
(Oct 04-09:39) mike: 40 area must hold,
(Oct 04-09:42) mike: 41 trend supp

(Oct 04-10:09) mike: 44 rejected yet again, lots of sellers up there. es needs break / hold over 42 to avoid drop

(Oct 04-10:13) mike: The ES opened and turn up from 1138.75 (1138.75-1138.00 key area) and bounced to 1144.00 (1143.50-1144.00 resistance) and then fell to lower lows at 1137.00 on ES. Now 1142 needs exceeded/ held to get anything going on the upside.

(Oct 04-10:23) mike: if the 40.50-40.00 need hold to stay out of trouble
(Oct 04-10:28) mike: 42 area reversed. sell bounces under tht, if 38 is broken soon then the pressure is o
(Oct 04-10:40) mike: the ES bounced to 41.25 [3 ticks under 42] so if short , that's resist. 38 key here, can collapse if broken/ held on a bounce
(Oct 04-10:48) mike: 38.50-39.25 resist on a bounce

(Oct 04-10:52) mike: The ES bounced to 1142.50 but didn't hold and the break put pressure on. The 1139.50 area should give resistance on a bounce, the 1135.25-1134.50 support needs quickly reversed to avoid damaging bigger trends.

(Oct 04-11:02) mike: under 38 its not good, trend down unless cleared/ held on a dip
(Oct 04-11:08) mike: 37 resist if a bounce from 1135.25-1134.50 ,

(Oct 04-11:15) mike: The ES reached 1134.75 support and just a feeble bounce followed. A trend day is in gear unless 1137 is cleared and held on a dip. The 1127 area is next key area, the bottom or recent range.

(Oct 04-11:17) mike: 36.00-36.50 area key now
(Oct 04-11:22) mike: nq breaking hard, 1974 resist there, 1980 area equal 37 area ES

(Oct 04-11:29) mike: it's looking ugly, but lock in some profits on shorts , so far at 1131.25-1130.50 zone, tighten stop at worst. 36.50-38.00 key resist band, 33.50 trend resist here

(Oct 04-11:49) mike: The ES held the 1131.25-1130.50 support, but its still trend down unless 1133.50-1134.00 is exceeded/ held. Key resistance if they can bounce is 1138 at max for a counter trend bounce.

(Oct 04-11:59) mike: 27 next.
(Oct 04-12:00) mike: not buying tho, its trend day
(Oct 04-12:03) mike: 31.50 area resist

(Oct 04-12:12) mike: The ES rolled over from 1133.75 and the 1127.25-1126.75 zone was reached so if that's broken the 1122.00-1121.50 zone is next. the 1131.50 is now resistance.

(Oct 04-12:37) mike: lunch time feeble bounce, 30.50 small resist
(Oct 04-12:49) mike: a feeble bounce from a major supp/ a pop up to 31.50-32.00 cn reverse if 28.50 held
(Oct 04-13:01) mike: its still trend dn, under 31.50-32.00 resist there

(Oct 04-13:16) mike: if this is just a bounce then should roll over here under 30
(Oct 04-13:26) mike: 31.50 rejected, need break of 30.00-29.50 to roll over tho
(Oct 04-13:39) mike: The ES reached 1131.50 and turned back down. If this pullback breaks the 1127.25-1126.75 zone and doesn't reverse, the move can extend towards 1122-1121 today. The 1131.50 needs cleared/ held to change trends intraday.

(Oct 04-14:01) mike: it looks like the 1966 area on NQ is key. it was a bounce high area, and has held on pullbacks there. keep eye on that area for ''must hold'' support,

(Oct 04-14:04) mike: this is weak if 31.00-31.50 cant be cleared , let alone cleared/ held on a dip .
(Oct 04-14:15) mike: here goes, under 31
(Oct 04-14:16) mike: nq and 1966 key
(Oct 04-14:19) mike: 26.50 , then 21 area if they break to lower lows, - 30.50-31.00 good resist
(Oct 04-14:23) mike: 29.50 small resist , to keep pressure
(Oct 04-14:29) mike: ES dow dbl bottom possible/ 29.50 need cleared/ held now
(Oct 04-14:38) mike: 31.50 rejected, 29.50 should hold now, or dbl bottom in jeopardy

(Oct 04-14:48) mike: The ES and Dow made double bottoms and turned up but stopped and turned back at the 1131.50 area. A pullback needs to hold 1129.50 to avoid turning back down here end of day.

(Oct 04-14:51) mike: NQ needs to get over 1974 area to get a move up going, otherwise its feeble looking
(Oct 04-14:58) mike: ugly day, avoiding long side until things change.

(Oct 04-15:05) mike: watch for 32.50-33.25 60ema on 5 min chart as good resist, 30 area needs defended or a weak close under 29 area would be poor pattern

(Oct 04-15:14) mike: mkt still vulnerable under 32.00, little 123 top there, 30.50-30.00 brea they wash out lower ,

(Oct 04-15:16) mike: 29.50-29.25 small supp
(Oct 04-15:18) mike: held so far, but still vulnerable to cave in unless 31.75 exceeded
(Oct 04-15:24) mike: 31.75-31.50 area pivotal - tuff call. standing aside late day
(Oct 04-15:33) mike: that 32.50 turning inti area like 44 was. have a great day
(Oct 04-15:38) mike: any bounce a short under 33 now, tempting to carry, but vulnerable mkt
(Oct 04-15:40) mike: 29.75 the key supp now

 

 

 

Friday- October 01, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Oct 01-08:55) mike: i sure didn't expect this early strength - i'm going to kill the short position for now and reassess this
(Oct 01-09:07) mike: the 42 area needs to hold, if not defended it heads lower - if held they stay out of trouble
(Oct 01-09:22) mike: 44.50 first resist
(Oct 01-09:34) mike: a drop to 43-42 needs reversed quickly
(Oct 01-09:42) mike: 42 supp held but this bounce will likely fail under 53-54
(Oct 01-09:53) mike: bounce failed, 42 must hold

(Oct 01-09:56) mike: The ES opened over 1142 and held so far. It must hold to avoid reversal.
(Oct 01-09:59) mike: sell bounces a top in
(Oct 01-10:03) mike: 42.50-43.00 now resist , must be cleared/ held or top in
(Oct 01-10:17) mike: back to 43-42
(Oct 01-10:26) mike: if they bounce, it just sets up another short when the upside stalls out, 42.43 shouldn't be exceeded / held
(Oct 01-10:28) mike: 31.50 if 35.5 not defended
(Oct 01-10:34) mike: 1135.25 supp reached, it minor supp, 1131.25-1130.50 will be broken if 38.50 not cleared, held

(Oct 01-10:39) mike: The ES broe 1132 but then bounced back to make a 123 type top, and re-breaking 1142 brought in more selling to 1134.50 so far. A bounce will be a short, the upside looks limited to a bounce towards 1142 at most now.

(Oct 01-10:43) mike: 40.75 resist on this bounce, should be selling there if 38.50 resist exceeded
(Oct 01-10:55) mike: 37 should hold if going to get a move up to 40.75
(Oct 01-11:00) mike: under 40 mkt vulnerable / 37 needs defended or test/ break of 31.50
(Oct 01-11:13) mike: no stick on bounces, 38.50-39.00 key
(Oct 01-11:18) mike: 36 area has been well bid on dips, mkt ok on pullback IF it reverses up from that area .
(Oct 01-11:29) mike: 4 times here at 36, avoid longs
(Oct 01-11:31) mike: 39 area must be cleared / held. , and/or 36 needs broken/ held

(Oct 01-12:56) mike: had an outage, looks like 39 needs to hold

(Oct 01-12:56) mike: The ES got footing around 1136 and moved up to 1141.25 so far. The move is labored so if 1139 is broken/ held then the market rolls over.

(Oct 01-12:56) mike: no stick on little pop ups, short a pop that reverses under 41 area
(Oct 01-12:56) mike: slow motion grind lower. it takes a move over 39 that holds that area to get anything going on upside
(Oct 01-13:06) mike: 39 held, it must get over 40 soon to keep going
(Oct 01-13:08) mike: 41 resist, a dip due here
(Oct 01-13:10) mike: 39.50-39.00 is key to hold on a dip
(Oct 01-13:13) mike: 42.50-43.00 resist up here

(Oct 01-13:18) mike: The ES drifted down to 1137.50 and then turned back up, and the break and hold over 1139 started the move higher. The 1142.50-1143.00 area is a key hurdle but the market will be ok as long as 1140.50 holds now, 1139 at worst, otherwise trends turned down again.

(Oct 01-13:26) mike: 40.50 held, but rejection of 42.50 needs undone and pushed thru. a 123 pattern possible up here
(Oct 01-13:28) mike: 4 shouldnt be exceeded/ held now
(Oct 01-13:29) mike: 41.75

(Oct 01-14:06) mike: The ES backed off from 1142.25 and bounced from 1138.25. If 1142.50 is not exceeded, and 1138.25 breaks, then the intraday pattern would go from sideways to bearish. If 1142.50 is not rejected, then 1146 area is key end of day.

(Oct 01-14:24) mike: rejection up there. watch 39, if not held then 38 will likely break. NQ has had trouble 1999 too
(Oct 01-14:38) mike: the rejection of 42.75 was absorbed fine, for now as long as 41 holds the mkt stays in decent shape ,
(Oct 01-14:43) mike: that could be it, pullbacks been bought, but need turn up n take out 1143 n stick, not reverse now
(Oct 01-14:44) mike: 1999 area on NQ too, has been good supply
(Oct 01-14:47) mike: 41 must hold/ reverse fast or 38 could be a magnet and pull it dn there
(Oct 01-15:00) mike: tough call but 41 holding, a scalp long if tested/ reversed. in a small range up here but mkt holds together unless 41 breaks
(Oct 01-15:16) mike: 41.50 held but buyer beware up here. a break could snowball
(Oct 01-15:20) mike: big offer 43.50. it must get thru and hold up there

(Oct 01-15:31) mike: 43.50 not cleared. 41.0 not broken . i'ill have several sell signals if close like this. , a short up there . have a great weekend

(Oct 01-15:47) mike: 3 pullbacks of 3.75-400 ES points ... a drop thru 1140 is a red flag too. vix sell sigs likely and other indicators at/ near extremes or show divergence.

 

 

Thursday- September 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 30-09:05) mike: 43 area now key supp this morning, mkt ok unless they break 43 and don't turn back up
(Sep 30-09:17) mike: 1148.50-1149.25 on ES and 2022.50-2024.00 on NQ are key hurdles to clear/ hold
(Sep 30-09:40) mike: 44-43 supp must hold
(Sep 30-09:47) mike: 1153.00-1153.75 ES, 2027.25-2028.25NQ lat big hurdles ,
(Sep 30-09:51) mike: top in, especially if 46 breaks,
(Sep 30-09:59) mike: 50 must be exceeded/ held to get out of dn trends / shorts better odds on bounces to 44-43 area

(Sep 30-10:10) mike: The 1153.00-1153.75 resistance on the ES and 2027.25-2028.25 resistance on the NQ were reached but that was reversed and the market is heading lower. A top could be in unless the 1150 level is cleared and then held on a dip. The 1143 area is now a key support this morning.

(Sep 30-10:14) mike: gap on daily chart filled, the 43 area was key pre open, must hold, a break of that could send towards 40
(Sep 30-10:22) mike: 48 now a key resist. , 10900 on Dow CASH , 2018 area on NQ

(Sep 30-10:25) mike: bounces are 3.25 pts, need a better bounce to change dynamics. gap days often are trend days. need to clear 48 n hold it to change that

(Sep 30-10:31) mike: The ES reached 1144 and needs to stay over that to avoid a test/ break of 1140.50-1140.00 area. The 1148 area needs cleared and held on a dip to get out of the trend down mode.

(Sep 30-10:41) mike: updated resist at 48, 2018 nq 10900 on Dow cash rejected 1st try, all need cleared / held
(Sep 30-10:47) mike: trend dn day under 48

(Sep 30-10:54) mike: The ES bounced to 1148 and reversed back down. Gap days are often times trend days and it will be a short on all bounces unless 1147.75 on the ES and 10900 on the Dow CASH are cleared/ held.

(Sep 30-11:01) mike: bounces have been 3.25-3.50 pts on ES, thats the key 1144 area now. if not short use a 3 point bounce to get in . yesterday close stopped downside here but should break 35.50 to give an outside day

(Sep 30-11:03) mike: nq has outside day [higher high, lower low than yesterday] ES should do the same unless a bounce holds over 44

(Sep 30-11:17) mike: watch 10800 area on Dow cash , 36-35 on ES, should get short covering bounce. if not, or its 3 points or less, then 27 weekly low possible today

(Sep 30-11:26) mike: 35.50 broken. a good ride.. 37 resist now.

(Sep 30-11:40) mike: a little double bottom, short covering bounce. 37 first resist here... if bounce is over 37 and not reversed then 43 is key resist, a short

(Sep 30-11:51) mike: The ES stayed trend down to break the 1135.50 low from Wednesday, and we have outside days on the charts already. If the 1138 area is not reject, then 1143 area could get a test but it will set up a short given the way the marker is acting today.

(Sep 30-12:12) mike: 34.50 resist on this bounce
(Sep 30-12:25) mike: should be it for the bounce if 34.50 not held

(Sep 30-12:36) mike: The bounce off of 1133.25 failed just under the 1138 updated resistance and dropped to the 1131.50-1130.50 support. This lunch time bounce needs to fail around 1137.50-1138.50 at the max. It's still trend down action unless that occurs. The 1127 area would be next support if 1131.50-1130.50 on the ES and the 10750 level on the Dow cash is broken.

(Sep 30-12:48) mike: 37.50-38.50 resist rejection first try, 34.50 looks pivotal on pullback ,
(Sep 30-12:58) mike: 60ema on 5 min chart at 39, 37.50 needs to holds or it rolling back over
(Sep 30-13:05) mike: 37.50 reversd , mkt firming, if there is 1 more push towards 42-43 and stalls, is a short

(Sep 30-13:19) mike: under 40 mkt bearish
(Sep 30-13:39) mike: failure under 40. mkt has changed form , stay w/ shorts and buy puts / november/ for a core short on bounce

(Sep 30-14:03) mike: The ES reached 1139.75 but refused to push through 1140 and backed off again. The market had a pretty good bid coming off of the lows, but unless 1140 is cleared and not quickly reversed again, it'svulnerable to a late day drop.

(Sep 30-14:10) mike: watch 34.50 for minor supp

(Sep 30-14:17) mike: don't take this as a positive for the mkt, its in for a 40+ point drop over next few days unless the ES gets over 1140 and doesn't reverse right away. internally the mkt is breaking down,

(Sep 30-14:25) mike: end of month trying to keep the mkt from breaking bottom side of range at 27.25... if 36.75 holds n they turn up, a move towards 39.50 possible but lots of resist there

(Sep 30-14:36) mike: 39.50 met, 40 rejected again. 38.50 supp must hold or back dn they go

(Sep 30-14:47) mike: 38.50 held, its trend supp, needs to hold to kep end of month in the range

(Sep 30-14:49) mike: its 39.50 supp no must hold. the move a bit to verticle, watch 43 area for a turn if reached and stall out

(Sep 30-15:01) mike: short up here or near 42, you'll get em back at worst

(Sep 30-15:06) mike: The market bounced back to the 2nd break down area this morning near 1142-1143 and failed. That area is a shorting area if reached. After end of month games end, the market appears vulnerable and should go for 1127, at the very least, before the downside is over.


(Sep 30-15:12) mike: last hour high/ low often important, they topped just before 3pm. the 35.50 level, yesterday low, is key supp as it paints ugly[ier] chart

(Sep 30-15:36) mike: 42 area rejected again, but 35.50 wasn't broken yet, if they are going to hold into the close the 40 level needs clear

(Sep 30, 2010 15:40) mike: buyers beware any pop up will be sold, reward vs risk favor short side under 42-43 zone

(Sep 30-15:41) mike: ** Note from Julie: Would you mind taking a couple of minutes to do us a huge favor? We signed up with a review service, and we'd like to ask you for a review. Please give your thoughts/opinions on our subscription service, ebook, "live" course, camp, customer service, etc. Here is the link that will take you to the review page: http://ratepoint.com/tellus/60848 Thanks so much! **

have a great rest of the day

(Sep 30-15:59) mike: carry over core shorts

 

Wednesday- September 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 29-11:37) mike: resist sold pre open , still huge area
(Sep 29-11:37) mike: 1137.25-1136.50 reversed, 42.50-43.99 key early
(Sep 29-11:37) mike: just sell bounces top in
(Sep 29-11:37) mike: at supp, but it a short unless 1140 exceeded/ held

(Sep 29-11:37) mike: The ES bounced from 1137.50 (1137.25-1136.50 support) to 1142.25 then dropped back to 1137.25 and turned back up again. The market acts top heavy but damage isn't done unless 10818 on Dow CASH, 1137 on ES and 2005 on are broken.

(Sep 29-11:37) mike: stall at resist, toppy, 38.50 needs reversed or top in
(Sep 29-11:37) mike: a 6-7 point drop off this bounce high possible, 1131.50-1130.5 area
(Sep 29-11:37) mike: 37.50-38.50 area now resist

(Sep 29-11:37) mike: The ES made a little 123 top after reaching 1142.00 on the bounce and a drop to 1135.50 followed. It's another 2 sided day so far, but selling bounces is the better odds trade unless 1140 is exceeded and held on a dip. Even then, the move will be sold as a high for the day looks in place for now.

(Sep 29-11:37) mike: a little dbl bottom possible, but looks like 32-31 should be seen if 40 not cleared

(Sep 29-11:37) mike: as long as 36 holds/ reversed then dips a scalp long [or cover shorts], but quick to exit / reverse on pop to 39.50-40.00 area that stalls until this range breaks

(Sep 29-11:37) mike: 39 area needs to holds to keep from reversing back down
(Sep 29-11:38) mike: key area at 42, 40.00-39.50 must hold

(Sep 29-11:42) mike: The 1136 area was bought and the ES is back to the 1142 area. A pullback needs to hold 1040.00-1039.50 area to avoid another reversal. If 1142 is exceeded/ held then a push towards 1146 or a bit higher is possible, then a reversal should occur.

(Sep 29-11:47) mike: 42 rejection, 40.25 now reversal level, must hold/ reverse up there or they're rolling over again
(Sep 29-12:27) mike: 44 rejected again. need to stay over 42 now, 40.50 at lowest
(Sep 29-12:33) mike: sell pop up , top in at top of range, tight stop on short, reward/ risk

(Sep 29-12:44) mike: The ES rejected the 1144 level again, however the 1141 level held so if they can stay over 1141 there is a chance to get one more run up. If 1144 if cleared and not quickly reversed then the 1148.50-1149.25 zone would have a chance. If there is a lower high, or 1141 breaks, its a short for a pullback at least.

(Sep 29-12:47) mike: lost mo, top at resist, short a bounce if it fails near 43.00-43.50
(Sep 29-12:59) mike: 43 shouldnt be exceeded / held now if top in
(Sep 29-13:04) mike: need 41.50 to break to roll over, watch nq leading
(Sep 29-13:09) mike: rolling over, , 39.50 supp next is key
(Sep 29-13:11) mike: well 41 is turning into a base/ reversal level . it is a pivotal area. as is 43 on top

(Sep 29-13:14) mike: at 12:50) i wrote-- '' lost mo, top at resist, short a bounce if it fails near 43.00-43.50 '' 43 rejected, stop just over 43

(Sep 29-13:20) mike: The ES pulled back to 1141.00 support and bounced to 1143.00, and now came back to 1141.00. The 1143 level should not be exceeded/ held now if the market is still going to be stuck in this range. A drop to 1139.50 must reverse or a deeper drop in in the cards.

(Sep 29-13:36) mike: cover 1/2 at 39.50, brig down stop to b/e

(Sep 29-13:48) mike: The market failed at near the top of this range again, and although it has kept coming back with buying on every dip lately, this failure could be terminal. The 1139.50 is key and must hold or the market will have topped and bounces will be sold. If they somehow push through 1143 and not quickly reverse (like they should if topping), then a last gasp run towards 1148 area is possible.

(Sep 29-13:59) mike: dbl top possible, 42.25-42.00 needs hold on pullback
(Sep 29-14:11) mike: token higher high , reversal if 42.50 breaks
(Sep 29-14:16) mike: short , reward/ risk good
(Sep 29-14:18) mike: 42.50-42.00 area should be tested, thats key area number 1
(Sep 29-14:30) mike: 42 met, 40.50 needs to break to feel good on this , 37 area would be next

(Sep 29-14:38) mike: The ES pulled back to 1139.75 after the last update then turned up. The token higher high at 1144.50 was reversed, again. The 1142 area needs to hold to avoid a reversal up here, if broken then 1137 would be key support end of day. IF 1144 is taken out and not quickly reversed, a move towards 1147.75-1148.50 is possible but would likely reverse up there the first time.

(Sep 29-14:55) mike: 44.50 again. its will be terminal, if 42 breaks, air pocket type drop possible, thats 2006 area on NQ , 10850 Dow Cash . If push thru 44.50 n hold, not reverse, then a a squeeze towards 48. that would be sold anyhow if reached. end of month dump if 42 breaks/ holds

(Sep 29-15:04) mike: unless 44.50 cleared/ held there is a lot of room below , nq lots or resist 2012-2015
(Sep 29-15:07) mike: 39.50, then 37-36 zone, if thats broken, 32 area

(Sep 29-15:16) mike: 37 met, lock in partial profits, 41 good resist

(Sep 29-15:33) mike: The double top at 1144.50 started the turn and the market hit an air pocket dropping to the 1137-1136 zone so far. The market could be in for a sizable drop, so avoid longs and sell the bounces under 1144.

(Sep 29-15:48) mike: 36 held, but 32 area next/ if 40.00-40.50 rejected/ this last ''give up'' at resist is going to last a few days, and maybe take out 27 low of this week if i'm right on this

(Sep 29-15:52) mike: that should be it, under 40 . nq fizzle too
(Sep 29-15:56) mike: this 1140.50, 2008 on nq, key resist here. , 38.50 supp must hold
(Sep 29-15:56) mike: have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Tuesday- September 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 28-09:42) mike: 35.75-36.50 good r
(Sep 28-09:43) mike: if in puts from friday cover 1/2
(Sep 28-10:02) mike: 32.50 r, 1126.50-1126.00 must hold or 22 next

(Sep 28-10:09) mike: The higher open was sold and the market dropped hard. Don't expect bounces to stick, the 1126.50-1126.00 is key and the 1121 area is next if broken and not quickly reversed. The 1132 area is initial resistance from here.

(Sep 28-10:14) mike: 31.25-32.25 resist
(Sep 28-10:28) mike: 34.50 area key resist, 31 supp now must hold or lows tested
(Sep 28-10:56) mike: as long as 34 holds the 37 area can be tested/ reversed

(Sep 28-11:07) mike: The ES bounced back to the 1137 area and backed off a bit, however the 1134 area is support that needs to break/ hold to put pressure back on.

(Sep 28-11:25) mike: a pullback needs to hold 36.50 at most to keep the trend up action going. 42.50 will be key on a test
(Sep 28-11:37) mike: 42 rejected, should pull back
(Sep 28-11:40) mike: 1140 trend up supp, a break of that stops upside
(Sep 28-11:54) mike: 37.50-37.00 supp, must hold or top in

(Sep 28-11:59) mike: The 1142 area is key and was rejected, and now 1138.00-1137.50 must hold or a top could be in for today.

(Sep 28-12:09) mike: 37.50 held, but top in a resist, a bounce could set up 123 top but 37.50 must hold

(Sep 28-12:21) mike: The ES held 1137.50 and turned up. If there is a test is a move to around 1141 that reverses then a 123 top pattern could set up but still the market will be in good shape unless 1137.50 area is broken.

(Sep 28-12:29) mike: a 123 type top, short against 1141,
(Sep 28-12:41) mike: they failed under 41 , but a break of 37.50 needed to break down. and break over 41 to get a run towards 44-45 again ...
(Sep 28-13:03) mike: toppy at 41 area, if tested sell w/ tight stop, 37.50 still good/ key supp
(Sep 28-13:06) mike: The 1141 level was tested twice and backed off, so that is a red flag, if 1137.50 breaks then bounces are even better shorts.

(Sep 28-13:12) mike: 3 peaks so far, watch 39.50 for a turn if headed lower. 2008 on nq

(Sep 28-13:31) mike: tricky action, should give a break of this range soon. a run up to 45 area possible, IF NQ gets thru 2009 and stick up there on a pullback,

(Sep 28-13:40) mike: nq held 2009, es needs to stay over 40.25 area
(Sep 28-13:51) mike: mkt still has a good bid on drops, need a push thru 42 on es and 12 on nq to keep going and not pull back

(Sep 28-13:59) mike: After the last update the ES pulled back to 1137.50 and turned right back up and is making new highs for today. This area has been trouble to break/ hold lately so a hold over 1144 is needed to avoid another decent pullback.

(Sep 28-14:03) mike: a failure to clear 44 can send em back to 37.50-37,00 area ,
(Sep 28-14:11) mike: 123 top at resist possible , 41.50-41.00 now must hold to keep uptrend
(Sep 28-14:14) mike: 41 held, its pivotal
(Sep 28-14:34) mike: should see 37.50, a break puts in another top
(Sep 28-14:36) mike: bearish pattern on bigger trend, 40.50 r

(Sep 28-14:41) mike: covered core short this morn, re enter put options on a bounce to 41 or better if they pop up there, bearish pattern and ton of resist

(Sep 28-14:53) mike: 38 on es and 2006 on nq need to be cleared/ held to take some pressure off, a better bounce [if they can] will be a short
(Sep 28-15:13) mike: 40.50 -41.00 resist. should be hard to break/ hold
(Sep 28-15:22) mike: 41 reaction, minor 39.50-39.00 supp , needs to hold to keep uptrend
(Sep 28-15:34) mike: 39 held, 43.50-44.00 key end of day,
(Sep 28-15:36) mike: 41 now supp to keep this fom turning dn
(Sep 28-15:44) mike: 41 held, if they can close over 44 its bullish yet but another failure up here is not good
(Sep 28-15:49) mike: 47.75-48.50 good resist and a short for a 5-6 point pullback
(Sep 28-15:50) mike: have a good rest of the day.
(Sep 28-15:57) mike: short via puts , good day

 

 

Monday- September 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 27-09:16) mike: 1148.50 area should be sold if reached. 43.25 was fri close and looks key early
(Sep 27-09:27) mike: puts bought on qqqq friday can be added to if 2023-2024 area tested / rejected early
(Sep 27-09:41) mike: 43.75 is friday close and a key resist
(Sep 27-09:48) mike: initial supp broken, sell bounces day
(Sep 27-10:03) mike: 42 needs cleared/ held on a dip to get of danger n try to get upside going

(Sep 27-10:12) mike: The 1144.00-1144.50 zone on ES (also 2021.50-2022.50 on the NQ) was sold and the drop to 1139.50 was quickly reversed. It looks like 1143.75 on the ES and 2019 on the NQ both need cleared and held to avoid trouble today. The bounces haven't held to it's a short on bounces that stall out.

(Sep 27-10:17) mike: 1136.75-1136.00 should be key and give a bounce, but if no bounce then 32 area gets tested
(Sep 27-10:42) mike: resist was rejected, but a decent bid on dip too. if 42 tested and turn up, we can get a push higher
(Sep 27-10:56) mike: 43.75 just missed , reversal dn from 43 a bearish pattern , 41.50 must hold now

(Sep 27-11:08) mike: The ES turned down from 1143.50 and NQ failed at 2020 and those highs are key resistance now. The 1039.50 area needs to hold or we will see 1136.75-1136.00 get tested and that must be reversed if reached.

(Sep 27-12:17) mike: The ES made a little double bottom at 1138.50 and a little double top at 1040.75 and a break/ hold outside of that range is needed soon, or the choppy movement is going to continue for awhile longer. If there is a pop to 1142 and that quickly reverses, then a retest of lows is possible

(Sep 27-12:35) mike: 39.00-38.50 now a ''must hold' key supp, 36.75-36.00 test if broken The ES made a little double bottom at 1138.50 and a little double top at 1040.75 and a break/ hold outside of that range is needed soon, or the choppy movement is going to continue for awhile longer. If there is a pop to 1142 and that quickly reverses, then a retest of lows is possible

(Sep 27-12:47) mike: its trying to firm a bit, a move over 40.50 must hold .. careful not to get cut up in this chop.
(Sep 27-12:59) mike: be short under 41
(Sep 27-13:09) mike: 38.50 3 tests, a break there can cause big drop / the bounces a gift short to 44 aea
(Sep 27-13:28) mike: the mkt firming a bit, 41 must be cleared/ held to get out of top pattern. under that its vulnerable
(Sep 27-13:44) mike: 40.75 supp, mkt can see 44 area but should fail
(Sep 27-13:44) mike: 2020-2024 on nq a key resist too

(Sep 27-13:48) mike: The 1040.75 was broken and held after firming up at 1138.50. As long as 1041 holds the market is "ok" but if broken then a bounce will fail. IF 1144 is exceeded/ held then the 1148 area could be seen, and reverse there.

(Sep 27-14:22) mike: 42.50 area key supp, 44 needs cleared held or bearish again
(Sep 27-14:31) mike: sell resist, tight stop.
(Sep 27-14:41) mike: it 42.50 needs to break to roll over. 45.25 small resist then 48.50
(Sep 27-14:52) mike: if 44 holds we get a pop higher, if not then we have high in
(Sep 27-14:59) mike: 42.50, then 41 supp
(Sep 27-15:05) mike: 42.50 held so far, if 44.25 rejected, back dn they go
(Sep 27-15:10) mike: The ES reached 1145.25 then reversed, and must hold 1142.50 to avoid a poor close.

(Sep 27-15:42) mike: poor action day, top in
(Sep 27-15:47) mike: back to the lows, short covering to 40-41 possible
(Sep 27-16:13) mike: bounces will be sold, this can be a sizable drop now that nasdaq broke. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday- September 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 24-09:14) mike: didn't see this kind of open.... 30.00-29.50 supp, 26 area key supp
(Sep 24-09:38) mike: 1136.00-1136.75 resist
(Sep 24-09:39) mike: 32 good / key supp
(Sep 24-09:45) mike: 35 needs hold to go for 1139.75-1140.50
(Sep 24-09:48) mike: 15 min in, minor time of day, a turn , 35.50-35.00 s
(Sep 24-09:52) mike: 35.50 held, 33.50 next if break
(Sep 24-09:55) mike: new home sales number 5 minutes
(Sep 24-10:02) mike: 35.50 mst hold

(Sep 24-10:15) mike: Surprising strength overnight gave a big gap up open, and the 1140 area was tested. The pullback needs to hold 1135.50 as it did already to avoid a reversal. If 1140 is cleared and can hold, then a test of 1144 or a bit higher could occur, then start another drop lower.

(Sep 24-10:19) mike: toppy , 39.75 needs exceeded / held
(Sep 24-10:25) mike: need a push thru 40 to hold, to go for 44 area, 1148.50 is a good key area above / NQ needs to get over 2013 n hold
(Sep 24-10:30) mike: 39.50 supp now , needs to hold
(Sep 24-10:38) mike: stair step higher. 40.00-39.50 now must hold or pattern breaks. but trend up unless broken.
(Sep 24-10:50) mike: watch 2014 on NQ, good buying there. if its not held, a then the upside breaks, its stall on ES
(Sep 24-10:53) mike: sell under 42.50 on pop
(Sep 24-10:59) mike: The ES broke/ held 1140 and pushed up to 1142.75 so far. The move is losing momentum so beware of a drop, if the NQ breaks 2014 then bounces will be sold as its rolling over then.

(Sep 24-11:08) mike: that should be it for bounce if 42 rejected, but 40 on ES and 2014 on NQ is trend up supp, those must break to turn the trends
(Sep 24-11:17) mike: gap day are often times trend days. 1140 needs to hold on a pullback to keep the pattern alive
(Sep 24-11:28) mike: if they pop up , 123 top pattern possible
(Sep 24-11:49) mike: a bounce sets p a short , tops up there iin place
(Sep 24-12:20) mike: 40 only broken by 1 tick... this stall should lead to pullback. need 40 to break
(Sep 24-12:30) mike: if 40.50 doesn't break/ hold then there is a chance to run towards 44 or a bit higher

(Sep 24-12:47) mike: The 1140 level broke by 1 tick and turned up. It's a trend up day to 1144 and maybe the 1148.00-1149.00 area where a gap from months ago starts to fill.

(Sep 24-12:58) mike: 42 needs to hold or 44 wont be exceeded. IF 44 is exceeded and run to 48 area, that a short.
(Sep 24-13:10) mike: sell nq on bounce, VERY extended / mini bubble blowing up there

(Sep 24-13:19) mike: 42 held , 44 then 48.50 are resist if not a double top on ES. if 44 rejected or reversed, a short / or a bounce if 42 is not held ... otherwise trend up still in gear

(Sep 24-13:32) mike: need NQ to get going to break over 44 on ES...
(Sep 24-13:35) mike: ok over 42.75 now to 48 area
(Sep 24-13:36) mike: if 43.25-42.75 is not held, its a fake out but it should hold if staying trend up
(Sep 24-13:39) mike: 43.25 held, but sell a pop to 44, that was big rejection / prarie dog
(Sep 24-13:51) mike: 42 still key supp, then 1140. that rejection at the top is telling. trend day over it looks as 44 rejected on the 1st bounce
(Sep 24-14:10) mike: if 42 breaks then 40.00-39.50 key supp must hol;d
(Sep 24-14:16) mike: 2014.50 on NQ HUGE BID, was key in morning / thts a key are for naz

(Sep 24-14:36) mike: a 2;30 buy program , 2014.50 on the NQ IS the key supp , not much more on upside before a decent pullback, but nothing bad happens unless that is taken out.

(Sep 24-14:49) mike: doublr top attempt, 43 supp now , 2018 NQ
(Sep 24-15:06) mike: buying puts on qqqq on bounce , a swing trade iniial core position
(Sep 24-15:23) mike: the 2020-2022area on nq short. es saw dbl top , 41 key supp end of day
(Sep 24-15:32) mike: that should be it for the rally, 41 and 2014 on nq key supp end of day. puts on NQ. Enjoy the weekend !!

 

 

Thursday- September 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 23-09:15) mike: 1118.50-1117.50 reached. that was the break out area. bounces will fail, 22-23 good resist a good short if reached and move stalls. 1126.25 max to fill gap on daily chart

(Sep 23-09:18) mike: 1114.50-1114.00 next supp if 17.50 key area breaks
(Sep 23-09:46) mike: 1122.50-1123.25 supp now resist. econ data top of the hour
(Sep 23-10:05) mike: 26.25 fills gap on daily chart, 23.25-22.50 key supp now.

(Sep 23-10:12) mike: The ES dropped to the 1118.50-1117.50 support in the first 10 minutes of trading, and from 1118.00 a bounce stalled and pulled back before shooting higher on the 10am economic data. The gap filled on the daily chart 1123.25-1122.50 zone is key support again and needs to hold or a top for this morning could be in place.

(Sep 23-10:20) mike: 23 held , but a 123 type top pattern possible
(Sep 23-10:25) mike: watch 25.50 for reversal... if 23 breaks thn 21.50 supp
(Sep 23-10:30) mike: as long as 23 holds, no damage done. just watch 28-29 for pullback

(Sep 23-10:38) mike: 28 reversed, 30 is a big obstacle for bulls/ bears . the mkt has had a good bid on dips so far, 27.50-26.50 need hold on this dip

(Sep 23-10:53) mike: 30 was rejected , quick pullback from there, sell a pop up they topped this morn. NQ NOT liking it around 1992-96

(Sep 23-10:57) mike: The 1123 level held on a dip and the ES ran up to test the 1130 area. That should be as far as the move goes for awhile. If a bounce fails at a lower high, a 123 top would form so for now the market look vulnerable unless 1130 is cleared / held soon.

(Sep 23-11:21) mike: mkt still is well bid. but if they fail here at 1130 [or 2000 nq , its leading], or break 26 area, things will change.
(Sep 23-11:25) mike: 28.25 needs to turn it up fast, or its failed

(Sep 23-11:30) mike: turned up fast... its a trend up day unless 28 area breaks. 28.25 it looks key now, 1994 on nq/ i must be way for 30 min or so.

(Sep 23-11:35) mike: 1132.00-1132.75, if long take some profit, clear the deck and reverse
(Sep 23-11:39) mike: ill need to break/ holds 29.50 to reverse , back in 25 min
(Sep 23-11:58) mike: quick here, 29.50 supp vs 32 resist, short up there a drop to 26 possible
(Sep 23-12:01) mike: 1112-. if it get carried away n goes thu 1118 on drop over next day or 2

(Sep 23-12:19) mike: The ES took out 1130 on the way to the 1132.00-1132.75 resistance zone and that was sold as the move has stalled out. A test of the 1126 area now needs to hold otherwise a reversal day could begin.

(Sep 23-12:27) mike: sell it dn to 26 area , 29.50 resist must be exceeded/ held
(Sep 23-12:30) mike: maybe not/ 1995 on nq is what must hold,
(Sep 23-12:31) mike: if nq breaks 1955 and es breaks 26, it could start hard drop

(Sep 23-12:38) mike: i haven't used audio for a few weeks or so, will around 1pm today for a bit. going for 26 area, i'll be back for a audio update in a bit

(Sep 23-13:00) mike: slow as can be but i'll do audio a little bit
(Sep 23-13:18) mike: audio now off. be short under 1129.50-1130
(Sep 23-13:18) mike: to 26 area or lower
(Sep 23-13:42) mike: still sold just under 1130. 29.00-29.50 good zone to short

(Sep 23-13:55) mike: The market has been slowly moving down and almost to the 1126 level. If that area is broken, then a transition lower occurs. Unless that happens, both sides are in play with key resistance around 1129.50 now.

Last update as I'm off to my son's football game early today.

(Sep 23-14:33) mike: nq struggling not good. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- September 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 22-09:21) mike: resist 1139.75-1140.25 , then 1144. Key supp 1130.25-1129.50, top in for a few days
(Sep 22-09:51) mike: 1140 rejected, 36.50 must hold
(Sep 22-10:05) mike: 30 is major, could hit air pocket drop if broken
(Sep 22-10:05) mike: 36.50 goo resist now

(Sep 22-10:14) mike: The ES rejected the 1140 area and dropped to 1132.50, and the 1131-1130 area is "must hold" or the bottom of this range since breaking out will break to the downside. 1136.50 IS PIVOTAL RESISTANCE.

(Sep 22-10:24) mike: 36.50 rejected, if 32 breaks , must reverse right away or not good...
(Sep 22-10:32) mike: major at 1130 held, so far. 32.50-33.50 resist now
(Sep 22-10:37) mike: 32.75 sold.... trend down going unless 33 broken/ held on a dip

(Sep 22-10:42) mike: The ES bounced to 1136.50 and then turned back down and reached the 1130.25-1129.50 key zone so far. Unless the 1132.50-1133.00 area is exceeded and held on a dip, trend down move is in gear.

(Sep 22-10:48) mike: The ES spent little time under 32.50-33.00 the last couple days. that gets it to neutral , not bullish tho unless 36.50 exceeded/ held

(Sep 22-11:00) mike: key/ major supp holding , but upside limited, short the bounces that last 15-20 min then stall out is the easier trade so far up here,

(Sep 22-11:11) mike: stay w/ shorts to 1127.50-1126.75 supp , trend down day still in gear

(Sep 22-11:14) mike: The 1127.50-1126.75 area could give a bounce, but its trend down day unless there is a bounce of 4+ points on the ES and its not quickly reversed.

(Sep 22-11:18) mike: 31.00-31.50 here resist
(Sep 22-11:27) mike: target hit. 1130 good resist now ,
(Sep 22-12:02) mike: 30.50 old key supp now resist, 29.25 now supp must hold or roll over again
(Sep 22-12:06) mike: another 3.50-4.00 pt bounce failed, 3rd time. need to break symmetry to try turning around
(Sep 22-12:20) mike: Sell 31-32 zone, 35.50-36.00 is max upside it looks
(Sep 22-12:21) mike: if that, 31.50 might be it

(Sep 22-12:26) mike: The ES bounced 4+ points from the 1126.50 low but it didn't hold so any bounce from here will be sold. Stay with shorting bounces as its an easier trade today so far. The 1135.50-1136.00 area would need exceeded just to be nuetral, if there is somehow another push higher to that zone.

(Sep 22-12:26) mike: back in 30-40 minutes
(Sep 22-12:33) mike: a bounce should fail under/ at 32.50-33.00 area .. rising wedge breaks if 29.50 breaks,
(Sep 22-13:05) mike: 29.75-30.50 good lid now
(Sep 22-13:15) mike: 23.00-22.50 is next good supp if 26.50 breaks
(Sep 22-13:23) mike: double bottom attempt, but resist 28.50
(Sep 22-13:37) mike: 31.00-31.50 key resist now , 28.50 needs hold on a dip to keep from turning dn again

(Sep 22-13:50) mike: The ES made a double bottom at 1126.50 and bounced to 1130.50, but now needs to stay over 1129.75 area to avoid another drop. If 1128 is tested, it will hold if the market is going to avoid another drop today.

(Sep 22-13:53) mike: prior bounce high and 60ema on 5 min chart at 31 area
(Sep 22-14:08) mike: 28.50 held , but just be careful long sitting under 31 for now as mkt acts weak w/ limited upside here
(Sep 22-14:21) mike: 28 held... but short under 30-31.... to test/ break lows
(Sep 22-14:29) mike: if 30 is rejected, a dip again. 28 key supp now
(Sep 22-14:39) mike: misjudged mkt strength, watch 1130.50-1130.00 supp for scalp long if held
(Sep 22-14:58) mike: 30.50 held, mkt is ok unless it breaks
(Sep 22-15:09) mike: 123 top, a bounce should fail near 31.00-31.50 at highest
(Sep 22-15:18) mike: 31 sold , 28 must hold of lows tested/ broken .
(Sep 22-15:26) mike: 28 held again... if 28 breaks, and/or 30 not cleared, held on a bounce, then thing changed and 26 area can break

(Sep 22-15:38) mike: its been a bit chaotic here this afternoon, i didn't get to audio, but will tomorrow . lots of swings today. 32-33 will be the big hurdle and not out of trouble until overtaken

(Sep 22-15:39) mike: have a great rest of the day
 

 

 

Tuesday- September 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Sep 21-09:16) mike: a pullback should hold a test 37-36
(Sep 21-09:34) mike: 1136.00-1135.25 must hold
(Sep 21-09:39) mike: 38 resist on this bounce
(Sep 21-09:48) mike: 1136.00-1135.25 zone should break, under 1138 mkt vulnerable
(Sep 21-10:04) mike: supp held, but damage done if broken . 38.00-38.50 resist must clear/ hold now

(Sep 21-10:17) mike: The 1136.00-1135.25 support held 3 times and gave a feeble bounce to 1137.50 so far, but if 1138.00-1138.50 is not broken/ held the market is still vulnerable.

(Sep 21-10:31) mike: 38 was rejected, but no break down... NQ holding it up right now , need a break/ hold out of ES Range
(Sep 21-10:42) mike: 2.50 p range, 38 needs cleared, 35.50 has to hold, both sides tested 3 times, a 4th test usually breaks thru
(Sep 21-10:57) mike: if still in shorts from yesterdays 38.50-40.00 zone, stay with it stop breakeven , 1138 now as it shouldnt be exceeded

(Sep 21-11:14) mike: The ES bounced to 1138.00 and tested that several times before rolling over and dropping to the 1135.50 support. Per last night's update, if that support breaks then things should be changing. Unless 1138 is exceeded/ held that break is likely.

(Sep 21-11:21) mike: should break, its been tagged 5 times now, watch 37 for rejection
(Sep 21-11:24) mike: finally, 33 area next, then 30.00-29.50

(Sep 21-11:33) mike: cover part of shorts 1134 or better basis ES , brreak-even stop on the rest. a bounce will fail and can re position then , 35.50 now resist

(Sep 21-12:08) mike: The ES couldn't get over 1138 and they rolled over to a 1133.50 low so far. A move back over 1136 that holds on a dip is needed to turn the market back up, but the 1138 area is still a key resistance if that happens. The 1130.25-1129.50 area is key support today, and if that is not defended then we are likely starting a correction short term.

After the Fed release, the normal pattern is a quick up-down-up (or vise versa) then a trend develops. If that is the case, watch the 1140 for a good resistance and the 1130.25-1129.50 area as key support.

(Sep 21-12:18) mike: 34.50 has been transition in a tiny scale , supp now
(Sep 21-12:27) mike: add to shorts on a bounce to 35.50. be short something on a bounce if not short already
(Sep 21-12:41) mike: small double bottom at 33.50 area. we likely chop around a bit. that might be scalp long if tested, reversed.
(Sep 21-12:50) mike: might bounce, but i staying with short side till proven its wrong side
(Sep 21-12:59) mike: 3 tick bounce.... thus short or wait for Fed

(Sep 21-13:20) mike: trend moves into a Fed release are often times reversed... if they run up to test yesterday highs [they shouldn't] look for that to be reversed. if they break 1130 and don't reverses, 1127.00-1126.50 then must hold or mkt in trouble and bounces will be sold

(Sep 21-13:27) mike: The market has acted toppy, heavy, and basically trend down so far. As stated last night, trend moves into a Fed release are often times reversed... so if they run up to test yesterday highs [they shouldn't] look for that to be reversed. If they break 1130 and don't reverses, 1127.00-1126.50 then must hold or market is in trouble and bounces will be sold.

NOTE: There will not be a Nightly Update tonight due to an appointment. If I can, I'll send a brief note later than normal but can not promise.

(Sep 21-13:51) mike: NQ had size bid at 1981.75 low there, 5 times normal size at dbl bottom. lows might be in, but still bounces are not holding, a break / hold over the 1134 takes pressure off awhile

(Sep 21-13:58) mike: 1986 on NQ good size offer now.
(Sep 21-14:22) mike: 1140 rejected, now 35.50-34.50 supp must hold
(Sep 21-14:29) mike: 35.75 held, that is pivotal going ito last 90 min here
(Sep 21-14:40) mike: 1140 supp now, 1146.00 symmetry for a high if 44 exceeded

(Sep 21-14:47) mike: The ES went up, down to 1130.25 support, then ran to 1140 before pulling back. The dip held at 1135.50-1134.50 new support, and if 1140 is not held then that area must or the move will be reversing again. If 1140 holds then then 1146 is possible.

(Sep 21-14:48) mike: ps- a 123 top is possible
(Sep 21-14:51) mike: 38 should give bounce, better or top possible
(Sep 21-14:57) mike: feeble go off 38..00, 40 resist, that 44 high will be sold if tested
(Sep 21-15:02) mike: 40 was a lid, if 35 area not held, high made on the emotion

 

Monday- September 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 20-09:56) mike: housing numbers in 2 min.
(Sep 20-10:11) mike: 23.25-22.50 broke/ held on dip and now key supp. 27 area needs to hold to avoid getting down there
(Sep 20-10:22) mike: 1131.00-1132.00 r

(Sep 20-10:30) mike: The higher open was sold and after pulling back the turn back up broke 1122.50-1123.50 and held that on a quick dip and a rally to the 1131.00-1132.00 area occurred so far. The 1134.50 area would be next if they push higher. The 1127 area needs to hold on this pullback to avoid a reversal. That 1123 area is now a key support to hold or a top is possible.

(Sep 20-10:37) mike: a 123 top possible, NQ lost gas
(Sep 20-10:42) mike: short / tgt stop
(Sep 20-10:44) mike: 29.00 supp, 31 shouldnt be exceeded or pattern nullified
(Sep 20-10:46) mike: 29.50-29.00 needs to hold now to stay trend up. mkt ''ok'' unless broken
(Sep 20-10:57) mike: 30.75 must hold or trend up move in jeopardy, then 29 would be a reversal level. 1134.50 next resist
(Sep 20-11:02) mike: except for the first 20 minutes, biggest dip was 2 ES points. if 31 old resist not held as supp, then things changing a bit
(Sep 20-11:11) mike: STALLED OUT, 31.25- 31.00 key now

(Sep 20-11:19) mike: The 1131 area on the ES needs to hold to keep trend up action going, but if broken then a good pullback likely in gear. The 1134.50-1135.00 area is next resistance if this keeps the uptrend.

(Sep 20-11:36) mike: along with 31..50 on ES, watch the 1974 area on NQ, if that breaks and not reversed quickly, its the first dent in uptrend, possible break down to 29 area on ES then.

(Sep 20-11:52) mike: things changing if this 31.50 not defended, 1974 NQ
(Sep 20-12:06) mike: high for now in place, sell a bounce

(Sep 20-12:13) mike: The ES poked up to 1133.75 and has rolled over and the 1127 area now key, if broken and not immediately reversed back up, then a big reversal day is possible.

(Sep 20-12:37) mike: lunch time low. bounce should fail --
(Sep 20-12:42) mike: 31..50 old supp now resist, pivotal -holding- under/ over
(Sep 20-12:57) mike: tick extremes on bounces good for pullbacks
(Sep 20-13:00) mike: 30.00-29.50 is key supp now. a break starts decent drop
(Sep 20-13:02) mike: 31.50-31.25 is actually first key supp, but very tight range
(Sep 20-13:13) mike: that should be a top/ this ''breakout'' on borrowed time, a top heavy mkt

(Sep 20-13:25) mike: The ES reached 1129.75 and turned up and a feeble bounce then failed at 1132.75 as the market has been chopping in a narrow range. There is a possibility of popping to a higher high, but the 1140 area on the SP500 cash is next decent resistance and it would likely be sold. However, if the 1130.00-1129.50 area - key now - is broken then a high has better odds of being in place for today a least.

(Sep 20-13:52) mike: its holding on pullbacks, failed rally attempt then. not place to be buying up here, there will be a pullback...
(Sep 20-14:21) mike: 1140 on SP500 CASH [SPX] is fib .618 from 1219.80 to 1010.91
(Sep 20-14:24) mike: 32 now key supp this afternoon. must hold now that we got up here per earlier

(Sep 20-14:36) mike: The move up took the SP500 cash to 1140.52 so far, but the 1132 area will hold on a pullback if the trends are going remain up.

(Sep 20-14:42) mike: should go to 34-ish, then decision time
(Sep 20-14:46) mike: i still see 34 on a dip
(Sep 20-14:56) mike: 35 now trend up supp. 38.50 zone next resist

(Sep 20-15:12) mike: it been trend up, a turn can start near 3:40pm. if 1138.50-1140.00 zone reached and stall/ reverses its a short w/ stop just over tht zone .

(Sep 20-15:14) mike: 36 area now trend up support to tht area
(Sep 20-15:27) mike: 38.50-40.00 rejected, small core short for turn around on tuesday
(Sep 20-15:31) mike: 36 is trend supp now end of day. and if broken the 33.25-32.50 now key support

(Sep 20-15:40) mike: The move just picked up steam going thru 1140. The ES got into the 1138.50-1140.00 zone and a top around this time is possible since it was a trend day. But no damage done as long as 1136 holds.

(Sep 20-15:57) mike: shorts at 38.50-40.00 izone s a keeper overnight here. have a good rest of the day
(Sep 20-16:00) mike: watch 37.00-36.50 for a key supp after hours. then 33-32 zone if something odd happens. take care

 

 

Friday- September 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 17-09:06) mike: almost all week i had 1127.50-1128.50 as major. that is a top today unless somehow its exceeded/ held held
(Sep 17-09:40) mike: 1127.50-1128.50 on ES, 1960.25-1961.00 on NQ ALREADY REJECTED
(Sep 17-09:43) mike: michigan sentiment report at 9:55am , 10 minutes
(Sep 17-09:56) mike: mini melt down possible. sell bounces if not short
(Sep 17-09:58) mike: 22 resist

(Sep 17-10:01) mike: The 1127.50-1128.50 zone on the ES and 1960.25-1961.00 zone on the NQ were rejected early and a good drop started. That should mark a top, if not a move back up there is a gift short.

(Sep 17-10:02) mike: 1118.00-1117.25 should break
(Sep 17-10:03) mike: 19.50-20.00 trend resist
(Sep 17-10:07) mike: 1120 trend resist turned em dn, 77.25 low at supp is key, much bigger drop if not held reversed
(Sep 17-10:14) mike: lost momentum and short covering bounce. 20.00-20.50 a key resist
(Sep 17-10:22) mike: a pop up to 22.00-22.50 should fail.
(Sep 17-10:23) mike: watch 10600 on Dow cash as resist/ pivotal area

(Sep 17-10:36) mike: 20.50 obviously good resist, 17 area good supp., a break down takes them towards 1114 on ES, 1930 NQ. a pop up over 20.50 should fail

(Sep 17-10:46) mike: The ES lost downside momentum at the 1118.00-1117.25 support and is bouncing. The ES should not break/ hold over 1122.00-1122.50 if there is another pullback coming.

(Sep 17-10:58) mike: that could be a high, NQ needs to hold 1950 or a wedge breaks ,
(Sep 17-11:06) mike: 24350 next resist. as long as 1120 holds on dip, mkt ok, if broken, another push lower
(Sep 17-11:23) mike: nq top, 1951 supp there must reverse
(Sep 17-11:27) mike: 22 resist
(Sep 17-11:31) mike: top heavy, toppy action. day after quarterly expiration tends to be down. use any strength to build a swing trade short.
(Sep 17-11:51) mike: a bounce here possible, sell it when move stalls out

(Sep 17-12:23) mike: The ES popped over 1122.50 to 1123.25 but didn't hold and the market turned down again. The bounces are feeble so stay with shorts as its the easier trade today when upside stalls.

(Sep 17-12:27) mike: NQ 13 MIN CHART, 15 SMA [day session only per the ebook] is the key dynamic supp. its held on pullback as a triangle type pattern forms. its at 1951-1950 area.

(Sep 17-13:15) mike: break dn

(Sep 17-13:34) mike: as long as they stay over 1118 area, no break down occurs today. but don't expect bounces to stick either. the ES will need to get over 1122 and not quickly reverse to get a rally to possibly test the 27 area, but a long shot for that to happen . i need to leave early today,.. in about 45 min...

(Sep 17-14:49) mike: 21.50 area needs to hold , 1118 area key supp end of day. have a great weekend

 

 

Thursday- September 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 16-09:07) mike: 19 resist 1 now
(Sep 16-09:40) mike: that a top for a bit, under 19 key
(Sep 16-09:44) mike: cover 1.2 puts bought yest near close at 1112 basis ES , stop 1123 on rest
(Sep 16-09:46) mike: 16 area resist
(Sep 16-09:56) mike: number in 3 min, key up here
(Sep 16-10:01) mike: 1112 just missed ,take 1/2 puts off ,
(Sep 16-10:13) mike: 19 key still
(Sep 16-10:19) mike: NQ is most vulnerable , 1934 r there, 1938 a key area as is 1119 on es

(Sep 16-10:28) mike: The market opened under 1119 and dropped to 1112.50 before bouncing back. The market is still vulnerable unless 1119 is cleared and held on a pullback.

(Sep 16-10:42) mike: to break down, that 1930 supp on NQ needs broken and held. we chop around until that breaks
(Sep 16-10:57) mike: stall here, 17.50 need cleared / held soon or reversal
(Sep 16-11:02) mike: 1938 area on NQ tested / rejected 3 times - needs cleared to avoid drop to 1932-30 again

(Sep 16-11:09) mike: The ES dropped down to 1113.50 while the NQ held its 1930 support area so those could be morning lows. However the 1118 area on ES has been a lid. If the 1116 area on ES is broken then the market will roll over but watch 1930 on the NQ as a key area today..

(Sep 16-11:17) mike: 16 held. its good supp now,
(Sep 16-11:21) mike: nq top, shorts under 19 still better odds
(Sep 16-11:47) mike: stay w/ shorts to 1112-1110
(Sep 16-11:50) mike: if 1930 on nq goes, a harder hit

(Sep 16-12:06) mike: The market stalled out at 1117.75 and rolled over but the 1930 area on the NQ is holding keeping the market stuck in a range. Still the market acts heavy and pops aren't sticking so stay with shorts under 1118 on ES.

(Sep 16-12:43) mike: choppy 2 sided action, its not going to fall apart or break out higher... a drop here need hold around 15.75 area or it get soggy

(Sep 16-12:57) mike: trends up to 17.75 so long as 15.50 not broken held
(Sep 16-13:00) mike: fastest move all day. under 18 its vulnerable
(Sep 16-13:26) mike: sell into ''strength'' , especially near top of range
(Sep 16-13:30) mike: like that. no stick /
(Sep 16-13:32) mike: trapped longs up there, and profits being eaten up on longs , shorts must be wrung out
(Sep 16-13:36) mike: 1109 on ES will be tested if NQ breaks 1930 n holds on a bounce , its key area for that

(Sep 16-13:41) mike: The ES popped up to 1117.50 and turned back down again. The NQ tested 1930 and if that breaks/ hold then the market will be under pressure.

(Sep 16-14:02) mike: the pull back to test 15.50, needs to hold
(Sep 16-14:08) mike: 15.50 held, mkt ok unless breaks
(Sep 16-14:09) mike: up to 17.50-18.00 possible, but not crazy bout lngs
(Sep 16-14:34) mike: better move than expected. high at 18.50-19.00 zone key , 1117 need to hold to keep up trend in gear.

(Sep 16-14:46) mike: The NQ refused to break down and the market rallied back to the 1118.50 on ES so far. If 1117 can hold the trend up has a chance to break over 1119 but if 1117 breaks a pullback occurs into the close.

(Sep 16-15:06) mike: mkt give short squeeze staying over 17 now , only break of tht turns this
(Sep 16-15:21) mike: 1948.25-1949.00 on NQ a key spot, 1121-22 es -- 19 area need hold
(Sep 16-15:24) mike: 1942 on NQ is the key to hold , then 1938 , pullback will hold the latter if in good shape

(Sep 16-16:07) mike: 17 was key indeed... reached the key zonea at close here. 18-17 area should hold on a dip, or things change. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Wednesday- September 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 15-09:18) mike: if 1110 broken then 1115.50 area is key resist . a bounce should occur in first 40 min,
(Sep 15-09:50) mike: 1108.50 held 10 minutes in. thats key supp now. 1115.50 area is good resist
(Sep 15-10:06) mike: ES just under 15 area / 1112 must hold to avoid a reversal, 1921 on NQ
(Sep 15-10:17) mike: 17.50 resist, but 1 min chart 9/18 ema trend up guide. 15 area must hold on dip

(Sep 15-10:21) mike: The ES dropped to the 1110.25-1108.50 zone and then turned up from 1109.00 about 15 minutes in and rallied back to the 1117.50 area so far. The 1115 area should hold otherwise back to 1112 at least.

(Sep 15-10:28) mike: 17.50 resist rejected, first dip so far. if 15 not held, they topped for a bit
(Sep 15-10:34) mike: top should be in at 17.50 resist.
(Sep 15-10:37) mike: should bounce off of 14.00, if not, breaking down
(Sep 15-10:39) mike: 15.50 must be cleared/ held now to avoid bigger drop
(Sep 15-10:53) mike: they backed away from a small resist at 17.50, 1930 on nq... nq made 123 top,
(Sep 15-10:58) mike: watch 1925 on NQ, that should be key since it lead the way

(Sep 15-11:04) mike: The ES has had trouble at 1117.50 and the NQ at 1930. But, the pullback found buyers at 1114.50 area on the ES and 1925 on the NQ. A break of those areas should start a break lower.

(Sep 15-11:07) mike: be short under 17.50 es, 1930 nq ... 1112.50-1112.00 now a key supp on a drop
(Sep 15-11:34) mike: the mkt will hang in here w/o damage unless NQ breaks 1924 area

(Sep 15-11:55) mike: The ES pulled back to 1113.50 and turned up, and just pushed through 1117.50 and 1930 on the NQ. The market will avoid any more trouble as long as 1115.50 on the ES and 1928 on the NQ is not broken. If it is, then the move could roll over.

(Sep 15-12:02) mike: 17 on es and 1930 on NQ now supp on pullback. needs to hold over tht
(Sep 15-12:17) mike: mkt backing down. a top possible for lunchtime pullback, but until the NQ rolls over and breaks thru 1930 no damage done yet.
(Sep 15-12:38) mike: losing momentum must get over 18.50 area soon or we get test of 15.5 area
(Sep 15-12:46) mike: if no bounce here, drop can gather steam
(Sep 15-12:48) mike: watch 1930 area on NQ, 1115.50 ES-- THEN 1924 there on NQ is a key/ transition area

(Sep 15-12:58) mike: The bounce was stopped at 1118.50 and is pulling back. As long as 1115.50 on the ES and 1930 on the NQ hold, no damage done and the market can creep higher. If those are broken, trends change and bounces are then selling opportunities.

(Sep 15-13:01) mike: well, 1 minute here, if 18.00 not cleared soon, 15.50 or lower still possible
(Sep 15-13:20) mike: grind higher should continue unless 18.00-17.50 broken or 1121-22 area rejected
(Sep 15-13:29) mike: NQ matched yesterday high and turned dn, sell a bounce
(Sep 15-13:35) mike: a hold under 1117.50, which is pivotal now, then can push towards 1114 or lower . not damaged unless broken

(Sep 15-14:02) mike: The ES popped up to 1119.75 before backing off, but the 1117 area has held on dips. The market is in a struggle, but as long as the 1117 area holds there is no damage done. There doesn't look like there is much upside to beware of a reversal near the 1120 area, and/ or 1936 area on the NQ which looks key.

(Sep 15-14:10) mike: they dont like it up near 1119..... 0570 on Dow cash...must push thru and stick to get a run up going. otherwise, another failure near top of multi month range

(Sep 15-14:20) mike: broke, but should bounce, sell tht bounce under the 19 area, 1936 on nq
(Sep 15-14:37) mike: 15.50 reached, again. must bounce, or to 1112 next. 17.00-17.50 now good resist now,
(Sep 15-14:46) mike: need to bounce 3+ points on ES, or they get hit and head towards 1112 area or lower.

(Sep 15-15:03) mike: tough call , but 1930 on nq was reversed fast and 1115 was reversed. as long as they are defended, the range continues and a shot for a break-out possible, but not a high odds scenario

(Sep 15-15:06) mike: bounce was less than 3 points, so its suspect , it looks like 16..75 needs to hold
(Sep 15-15:37) mike: 18.50-18.00 supp now. it should hold, or it'll be another failure and a drop to 15 then key.
(Sep 15-15:43) mike: buying some puts again for pullback

 

 

Tuesday- September 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 14-08:59) mike: its sell bounces today
(Sep 14-09:18) mike: if the Vix reverses today i get 3-4 sell signals. mkt very overbought, at top of range
(Sep 14-09:35) mike: top should be in , 1115.50 key break/ hold
(Sep 14-09:43) mike: 1111.25-1110.50 must hold or 1106-1105 next here. 13.50-14.0 resist
(Sep 14-09:50) mike: 1914-1915 on nq a resist
(Sep 14-09:59) mike: 13.50-14.00 looks key this morn, under 15.50 area
(Sep 14-10:03) mike: nq needs to hold 1914 to avoid another push down
(Sep 14-10:09) mike: 1919 on nq and 14.50 key now
(Sep 14-10:13) mike: highs in place there,

(Sep 14-10:25) mike: 1115 rejected, but 1112 ON ES AND 1914 ON NQ ARE GOOD SUPP, AND THO THE UPSIDE IS LIMITED, THERE IS NO BREAK UNTIL THOSE ARE TAKEN OUT. oops sorry re caps.

(Sep 14-10:30) mike: The 1115.25-1114.50 key support was broken/ held on a bounce and the ES dropped to 1110.25. The bounce reached 1115.50 so far, and upside looks limited but it takes a break of 1113.50 on ES and 1917 on the NQ to turn the market over now.

(Sep 14-10:40) mike: 16 was yesterday closing range, a short up there, high might be in
(Sep 14-10:47) mike: wrong about that. its trend up to yest highs if 16.00-15.50 now holds
(Sep 14-10:56) mike: matched yest late high, 17.00 supp, then 1116.00-1115.50 key supp
(Sep 14-11:09) mike: 1117 holds...at yest high, but its ok as long as 17 held. 21-22 key next
(Sep 14-11:12) mike: taking small short on test of high .
(Sep 14-11:13) mike: 18 now supp, a break there and its toppy then

(Sep 14-11:19) mike: The market really got legs once 1115 was taken out and the 1122.50-1123.50 area is the next big hurdle and short if rejected. But, for now as long as the 1118 area holds, no damage done. but if broken then the market turns toppy.

(Sep 14-11:22) mike: 21 just missed, a lunch time pullback
(Sep 14-11:25) mike: longs want out on a pop, its feels tht way here
(Sep 14-11:28) mike: if 18 isn't taken out first, a 123 top pattern is possible up here
(Sep 14-11:35) mike: 20.25 shouldn't be exceeded or the 123 is nullified.
(Sep 14-11:38) mike: 18 area especially key now. short s are scalp until trend change
(Sep 14-11:45) mike: 21 small rejection. - 19.00-18.50 still key tho. key range up here.
(Sep 14-11:53) mike: 21-22 band rejected. it is a sell zone, 18.50 very key on a drop

(Sep 14-12:00) mike: The ES reached 1121.50 and it could be a top. However, the market has been trend-up and needs a break for proof. To get that, the 1118.50 area which has been holding needs to break. That would start a topping process today.

(Sep 14-12:10) mike: very good trend , about parabolic on NQ but ES losing momentum off 22.50 . 20.50 now supp
(Sep 14-12:17) mike: top in for now,

(Sep 14-12:21) mike: losing momentum. 1122.50-1123.50 is key, top of this multi-month range. NQ is keeping this up. if 1120 area on ES is not defended, things change

(Sep 14-12:28) mike: The ES rejected the 1122.50-1123.50 zone and is losing momentum. That is close to the top of this multi-month range. The 1120 area needs to be defended or a top of some sort should be in for awhile.

(Sep 14-12:34) mike: sell bounce tht fails near 1934 area basis NQ
(Sep 14-12:39) mike: should roll over here, out of steam...
(Sep 14-12:43) mike: 20 is holding, but 21.50 needs cleared/ held to avoid drop , 18.50 key if 20 not defended
(Sep 14-12:49) mike: be short if not already, 22.50 resist a short to maybe bigger top.
(Sep 14-12:52) mike: The ES dropped to 1118.75 so far, and a top is now in. Sell bounces the rest of the day, a swing trade is being taken here.

(Sep 14-13:02) mike: 20.25-20.75 resist
(Sep 14-13:16) mike: stay with shorts. 1115.50 is next supp area , a bounce will fail
(Sep 14-13:19) mike: a break/ hold over 1120 needed to get out of trouble, temporarily . 1118 coincides w/ 60ema on 5 min / break is more negative
(Sep 14-13:24) mike: 15.50 would be a key area , i think a lower low under 1110 possible on this leg dn...... under 1120
(Sep 14-13:36) mike: 19.25 resist.

(Sep 14-13:46) mike: the Vix will give more sell sigs on a close at/over 21.37 area. stay w/ partial shorts for swing trade. puts bought early, add on bounce

(Sep 14-13:49) mike: as for day trades 1115.50 is pretty important and place to cover some, trailing stop as mkt is stair stepping lower
(Sep 14-13:59) mike: stair step down, 15.50 met. needs broken/ held to look really bearish. 18 resist

(Sep 14-14:18) mike: 18 not exceeded yet, also looks like NQ needs a push thru 1830 to stick. if a drop holds 15.50 we can get 1 more push higher to finish off the bounce

(Sep 14-14:24) mike: The ES dropped to that 1115.50 level and turned back up. The bounce should fail unless 1120 is cleared and not quickly reversed.

(Sep 14-14:52) mike: 1120 rejected, but has a chance to get thru unless 18.50+18.25 again breaks
(Sep 14-15:13) mike: 18.75 held, but 30 minutes at 1120... make or break .... it looks
(Sep 14-15:14) mike: watch 17.50 for supp
(Sep 14-15:33) mike: 21.75 possible if 1119.75 holds. hard to trust this bounce, given rejection of top of big range.
(Sep 14-15:37) mike: 21.75 met. might be it if 20.50 not held
(Sep 14-15:40) mike: double top. have a great rest of the day
(Sep 14-15:43) mike: staying partial short

 

 

Monday- September 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 13-09:11) mike: a decent dip a buy, 1115.25-1116.00 was sold overnight and key area
(Sep 13-09:19) mike: supp 1112.50 area . a reversal if broken / held down towards 1108 or gap fill 1105.50 area
(Sep 13-09:31) mike: gap up open at r
(Sep 13-09:35) mike: 14 must hold, 1905 nq
(Sep 13-09:44) mike: could be it, 15.50 supp, then14 key early now / reversal if broken n not quickly reversed
(Sep 13-09:55) mike: under 16 its vulnerable here

(Sep 13-10:04) mike: a drop to 1112 area will be make/ break. / a 123 type top patttern possible. up here
(Sep 13-10:08) mike: pullback should hold 1116 area at lowest to push higher . 1121-22 next resist
(Sep 13-10:21) mike: 16 holds, but if no push upthru 1118 area soon, its means its tired up here

(Sep 13-10:25) mike: The market gapped up again, and the ES reached 1117.75 so far. The move hasn't given much back, but if 1116 area is not defended then a decent pullbsck should be underway. The 1121-1122 area is next resistance if new high is not reversed.

(Sep 13-10:31) mike: 1120area should be seen if symmetrical move. ,
(Sep 13-10:32) mike: 17 needs to hold or top pattern starting .
(Sep 13-10:39) mike: losing momentum 17.50-17.00 must hold still
(Sep 13-10:45) mike: mkt is stair step higher, until that breaks or there ia a reversal pattern,its trend up.
(Sep 13-10:55) mike: toppy , make/ break here

(Sep 13-11:00) mike: The 1116 level heal and the ES reached 1119.00 before finally pulling back. That might be it for this bounce, especially on a break of 1116 that's not quickly reversed.

(Sep 13-11:06) mike: 17.75-18..00 now resist
(Sep 13-11:15) mike: 16 still key, but bounce doesnt have much upside
(Sep 13-11:15) mike: 17.50-18.00 resist still
(Sep 13-11:30) mike: resist rejected/ supp bought. 1121-1122 is max upside it looks, lots of room below
(Sep 13-11:33) mike: short side better

(Sep 13-11:46) mike: The market looks to have topped for now, as the 1117.50-1118.00 area was rejected after bouncing off 1116.00. Bounces are shorts down to 1112.50, and possibly quite a bit lower if 1118 is not exceeded/ held.

(Sep 13-11:58) mike: 16.50 should be key here
(Sep 13-12:10) mike: low missed by 1 tick, a 1.50 point bounce should fail
(Sep 13-12:15) mike: 12.50 cover part/ keep short for swing trade on some

(Sep 13-12:20) mike: The ES reached 1112.75 so far, and its a key area with 1108 area next. A break/ hold over 1115 now needed to dent the down trend.

(Sep 13-12:25) mike: 1105.50 gap fill a target too. 1112.75 r
(Sep 13-12:54) mike: test of 1111 needs quick reversel.. turning trend down day
(Sep 13-13:20) mike: 1112 turned key supp now
(Sep 13-13:21) mike: a dip should hold 1112.75 at lowest , or back down........

(Sep 13-13:46) mike: The ES reached 1110.75 before bouncing, but the move up is feeble so it still takes a break/ hold over 1115 to avoid another break lower.

(Sep 13-13:59) mike: rollover just under 1115. its still key. 1112 must be reversed on a test, or lower we go
(Sep 13-14:05) mike: 13.50-14.00 good resist now
(Sep 13-14:17) mike: should roll over here if lower to go
(Sep 13-14:19) mike: 1113.50 is resist on bounce here / watch 1916 on nq resist

(Sep 13-14:33) mike: , 1115 key resist above - if rejected again, back to 1113 to see if trend holds . mkt avoids trouble unless 1112.50-1111.50 breaks now

(Sep 13-14:48) mike: 15 broken by 1 tick, watch that 14 area it must hold on dip, or things go back to bearish
(Sep 13-15:06) mike: be short under 15.50

(Sep 13-15:23) mike: be flat , as long as 1114.75 there holds, nothing bad happens.
(Sep 13-15:27) mike: a bounce should be sold now if 14.75 breaks
(Sep 13-15:34) mike: no push thru 15.50 and hold, its vulnerable below 16 here
(Sep 13-15:39) mike: not the case, its ok unless 15.50 breaks
(Sep 13-15:47) mike: 16.50 key into close
(Sep 13-15:54) mike: 16.50 held. need a close up here to keep bullish pattern
(Sep 13-15:57) mike: setting up to drop tomorrow. have a good rest of day

 

 

Friday- September 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 10-09:17) mike: 1102 area still key resist
(Sep 10-09:38) mike: 1100 r,
(Sep 10-10:01) mike: 1104 area still key, top of range short w/ tight stops. 1100 is pivotal , a break makes toppy pattern
(Sep 10-10:11) mike: 1100.50 key supp now, if not defended they break towards 98 again.
(Sep 10-10:23) mike: 1104.00-1104.50 reached. the 1102 area now key supp.
(Sep 10-10:34) mike: watch nq for lead, 1895 key resist there. 1890 the key supp there
(Sep 10-10:41) mike: nq topped, a bounce a short under 1895
(Sep 10-10:41) mike: 1105 es , 1102.50 now key supp
(Sep 10-10:50) mike: NQ spiked up to resist, quickly reversed... ES acting different. need to hold here if going to bounce again
(Sep 10-11:05) mike: stall... must break/ hold 1104.50 resist
(Sep 10-11:16) mike: broke
(Sep 10-11:18) mike: 1884 area on NQ the next key supp. 1101.50 ES.. NQ moving better both ways
(Sep 10-11:41) mike: NQ keeps trending down, 1888 is pivotal
(Sep 10-11:56) mike: stay w/ shorts to 1099-98 or more
(Sep 10-12:03) mike: NQ LOWER LOW, ITS BREAKING DOWN/ 1882 RESIST THERE
(Sep 10-12:09) mike: IF SHORT oops sorry re caps, lock in some profit at 99-98 zone on es, 1876=75 nq, trail rest. stay w/ puts bought yesterday

(Sep 10-12:26) mike: key spot, a drop must hold 1100.75 es, 1880 nq
(Sep 10-12:41) mike: got the drop on time. still key up here , and 99.50 es must hold
(Sep 10-12:56) mike: a drop to 1101 area should hold on dip to keep upside ok
(Sep 10-13:00) mike: 1100.75 must hold , if 1 more pop up its a good short
(Sep 10-13:11) mike: the mkt got footing and turned up. 1101.50 is now key, mkt trend is bullish now unless tht is broken
(Sep 10-13:24) mike: wedge breaks if 1101.50 breaks, if tht happens a bounce will be sold .NQ 1883 A TRANSITION AREA EARLIER
(Sep 10-13:33) mike: THIS was break down area earlier. mkt needs to stay over 1102.50 now
(Sep 10-13:39) mike: ok over 1103.00/ if tht breaks, trend change possible
(Sep 10-13:46) mike: sell a bounce to just under those highs, tigh stop
(Sep 10-13:50) mike: this will be a scalp. then day over for me . ES and NQ out of sync
(Sep 10-13:53) mike: scratch this, shoulda backed off fast
(Sep 10-13:54) mike: like that. grr.
(Sep 10-13:56) mike: 2pm, feels like 4pm... ES is vulnerable under 1104 still , nq different game rgt now. careful long, action toppy
(Sep 10-14:14) mike: 1104 resist rejected again, key hurdle end of day. that 1102 area needs to hold or things change to bearish again. its the 1882 area on NQ.
(Sep 10-14:16) mike: i need to leave early. all the ''players'' should be present on monday. its odd acting mkt this afternoon. take care and enjoy your weekend.

 

 

Thursday- September 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 09-09:20) mike: 1107.25-1108. 00 resist, 1102.50-1103.00 will be key supp

(Sep 09-10:09) mike: the 1101 area was pullback supp pre open, and bounced there 20 minutes in. a top looks in, but a break of that needed ,

(Sep 09-10:27) mike: The gap up open was was sold (just under the 1107.25-1108.00 zone) before stocks opened and the ES dropped to 1100.75 so far. The 1097.50-1098.75 area is next support on downside. Bounces are shorts until reached or 1104 is exceeded.

(Sep 09-10:35) mike: 98.75 target 1 under 1101.75
(Sep 09-10:43) mike: 1102.50 needs cleared/ held -- not rejected again
(Sep 09-11:08) mike: dbl bottom at 1100 area, now a key supp. NQ needs to catch a bid or more trouble
(Sep 09-11:15) mike: as long as 1102.50-1102.00 holds on a dip , buyers still in charge. if broken, then a bounce will fail and be a short instead
(Sep 09-11:27) mike: 1102.50 held, its so slow they need to stay over 02.50

(Sep 09-11:36) mike: The ES made a little double bottom at 1100 then took out 1102.50 and that held on a dip. The market will be a buy on a dip as long as 1102.50 area holds. If broken then a high should be in place.

(Sep 09-11:53) mike: short up here , bids dry up
(Sep 09-11:55) mike: 1102.50 should break . nq 1892 key

(Sep 09-12:36) mike: snoozer... but short under 1103.75 now
(Sep 09-12:45) mike: that should be it

(Sep 09-12:49) mike: The ES broke 1102.50 after turning down from just under 1103.75 resistance, and that should be a top for now. A move that breaks 1100 gets the ES to 1097 area before a bounce attempt.

(Sep 09-13:02) mike: 1100.25-1100.75 small resist now
(Sep 09-13:06) mike: 1100.25 rejected. 97.25-96.75 supp
(Sep 09-13:13) mike: bid 96.75 to cover part if short , trail stop on rest
(Sep 09-13:16) mike: 96.75 met, 98.50 trend resist
(Sep 09-13:29) mike: 98.50 exceeded by 1 tick... that 96.75 is a line in the sand, bigger drop towards 93 area if not held.
(Sep 09-13:37) mike: 98.50-99.00 key resist end of day now
(Sep 09-13:38) mike: 1888 is key on NQ, leading again today.

(Sep 09-13:45) mike: downside targets met, but can go lower... a dip to 1097 -- that turns up -- thats possible scalp long. / otherwise pressure still on under 98.50-99.00 and on a dip must hold, reverse up from 97

(Sep 09-13:48) mike: 97 quickly reversed. 1099.50 resist now
(Sep 09-13:50) mike: this bounce should fail rear 99.00-99.50 here, don't get aggressive long
(Sep 09-13:56) mike: high made on gap up open, trend dn day since
(Sep 09-13:57) mike: avoid longs, a bounce is gift short, lows can be made near close

(Sep 09-14:07) mike: The ES reached the 1096.75 target on the way to 1095.75 low so far. The market has moved back and forth since topping on the open and will be a short on bounces unless 1100 is exceeded/ held.

(Sep 09-14:30) mike: the quick pop ups are sold into. that must change to avoid another push lower
(Sep 09-14:39) mike: ES needs to bounce up from 97.50 at lowest to avoid failure again

(Sep 09-14:46) mike: that should be a low at 97.50... needs to stay over that now

(Sep 09-14:49) mike: this move won't stick, so if long watch 99.00-99.50 to exit

(Sep 09-15:01) mike: key spot 1100 es 1888 nq both
(Sep 09-15:04) mike: as long as 98.75 area holds , trends up.
(Sep 09-15:21) mike: 99 would reed to break to turn trends now.
(Sep 09-15:39) mike: trends up now as long as 1100.75 holds
(Sep 09-15:39) mike: have a good rest of the day
(Sep 09-15:43) mike: buying a few puts up here ,
(Sep 09-15:54) mike: stay w/ puts for a core short, mkt toppy

 

 

Wednesday- September 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 08-09:52) mike: 97-98 key resist. 94 must hold
(Sep 08-10:06) mike: toppy here 97.50
(Sep 08-10:06) mike: must hold now or a dip to 96 next
(Sep 08-10:14) mike: 97.00 held. its trend up unless tht is broken

(Sep 08-10:24) mike: The market rallied right off the open and the ES reached 1100 while the NQ reached its 1878.75-1880.25 key area. There should be a decent pullback from up here if that resistance is not cleared soon. The 1097 area is pivotal support now.

(Sep 08-10:27) mike: 2 min chart, 15sma has been trend giude all morning. its now at 98.25
(Sep 08-10:34) mike: mkt trend up over 98.50-98.00 area now - that must be defended to keep upside. if broken, a bounce will fail
(Sep 08-10:49) mike: top looks in place, a bounce should fail

(Sep 08-11:09) mike: The market is grinding higher in trend up fashion. As long as 1099.50 on the ES is held, the move could continue towards 1103.50-1104.50. A reversal there is likely, if reached. We get the Fed's Beige Book release at 2pm, and if this trend continues into that time frame, a reversal would have good odds. If 1099.50 is broken, then a bounce that follows will be sold in to.

(Sep 08-11:33) mike: 99.50 held so far. NQ leading this move. its at a key resist 1882 area. if 99.50 breaks a top in for awhile

(Sep 08-11:42) mike: 99.50 reached, 1100.50-1101.00 resist
(Sep 08-11:45) mike: 98.00 must hold if a break of 99.50
(Sep 08-12:01) mike: test of high likely, a 123 top possible

(Sep 08-12:06) mike: The 1099.50 level was broken by 1 tick then turned up. A test of the highs that reverses sets up a 123 type of top, and start a tradable pullback. For now the market will be okay unless we get that reversal or the 1099 level is broken and not quickly reversed.

(Sep 08-12:13) mike: short under 1101 for now
(Sep 08-12:33) mike: got dbl top. 1100.00-1099.50 is key
(Sep 08-12:40) mike: it takes a drop of 3.75 points on ES to turn the symmetry and nullify trend up ---
(Sep 08-12:50) mike: 1101.75 trend supp.

(Sep 8-13:00) mike: tht should be it , if pop up stalls near 1102.50 it should turn down pre beige book --- 1103.50-1104.50 major resist short term. 1108 area has outside chance, gotta break/ hold 1104 tho a tuff task

(Sep 8-13:04) mike: The ES turned down from just under 1103.50-1104.50 key zone and should be a tough area to clear. That should be the end of the pre Beige book release. The 1099 area is very key now, symmetry and trends break if its not held.

(Sep 8-13:09) mike: don't count on them bouncing back on every drop, mkt rejected strong resist, both bulls and bears would like that price , to cover longs and or short

(Sep 8-13:12) mike: 1101.50-1102.00 small resist now, NQ lead the way up, its parabolic move rejected too . 1099.25-1098.75 would need reversed fast to avoid breaking down

(Sep 8-13:35) mike: 1101.50-1102.00 gets rejected , supp 1100-1099 , only scalps until after 2pm

(Sep 8-13:48) mike: 98.50, then 1100.25-1100.75 GOOD RESIST NOW

(Sep 8-13:58) mike: The market broke lower and now the 1100.25-1100.75 area needs cleared / held to avoid another push to the downside.

(Sep 8-14:03) mike: 98.50 was rejected, its needs cleared to take some pressure off.

(Sep 8-14:39) mike: 99.50 early low/ break area is pivotal,

(Sep 8-14:44) mike: reversal at 1100.50 possible. 1098.50-1098.00 supp now

(Sep 8-15:05) mike: We're getting the 2-sided action, but as long as 1098.50-1098.00 area holds then the market is still okay for a test of the highs. If the 1098.50 level breaks then trends could turn back down.

(Sep 8-15:16) mike: bearish pattern if 1101 not cleared/ held

(Sep 8-15:28) mike: a bounce will fail
(Sep 8-15:29) mike: pattern break

(Sep 8-15:43) mike: bounce failed. a move back up there is a gift short

 

Tuesday- September 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Sep 07-09:13) mike: 1094.00-1093.50 needs to hold or a top will be in for a bit. 98.50-99.50 on ES, 1861-63 on NQ is now initial resist


(Sep 07-09:36) mike: if you bought puts on friday , cover 1/2 at 1094.50 basis ES


(Sep 07-10:00) mike: half of shorts covered, re short a bounce to 96 area, thats good resist now. 90.50 could be a magnet

(Sep 07-10:08) mike: The lower open was reversed but a bounce from 1096.00 to 1099.50 (1099.75-1099.00 support turned resistance) was sold and the ES dropped to 1092.25 so far. There should be good resistance around 1096 on the ES and that needs exceeded to avoid another push down.

(Sep 07-10:22) mike: 95 now trend dn resist. a bounce from 90.50 possible


(Sep 07-10:48) mike: stall just under 96 resist.. 94.25 needs to hold on drop to not roll over


(Sep 07-11:00) mike: 96 area was rejected but there is something holding this up, 93.50 now needs to needs to hold on a dip


(Sep 07-11:04) mike: stick / shorts on bounces under 96

(Sep 07-11:13) mike: The ES bounced to 1095.75 resistance and backed off twice. The market remains vulnerable unless cleared/ held. The 1090.50-1090.00 area will be key on a test, if not held then 1087-1086 area would be in the cards on this leg down.

(Sep 07-11:22) mike: the ES hasn't spent much time under 92.50 yet. if they get under there and hold on a bounce, then the mkt would be under pressure. otherwise, range bound , the 96 area still key above

(Sep 07-11:52) mike: 96 area was rejected 3rd time , 92.50 was reversed 3 times. still vulnerable under 96 short under that , 1864 on NQ

 
(Sep 07-12:04) mike: 95.25 needs hold to have chance to break over this range now

(Sep 07-12:24) mike: The ES held the 1093.00-1092.50 area and popped up to 1096.75 but then backed off quickly. Sell bounces still. The 1093.00-1092.50 area would need to hold to avoid going for 1090 area or lower.

(Sep 07-12:50) mike: 95.25 resist here

(Sep 07-13:30) mike: The market is acting "heavy" and per last night's update it is unable to hold any gains so far. It is not breaking down yet either, but if the 1093 area breaks and then is held on a bounce we should test 1090.50-1090.00 before a rally attempt occurs. The market is still vulnerable unless 1095 is cleared/ held this afternoon. If they can get a run up going, the 1099 area is a good resistance the rest of the day.

(Sep 07-13:55) mike: scalp short off the 95-96 area on a reversal / stall there, or buy a reversal up from 92.50 area. or sit tight for now..


(Sep 07-14:03) mike: 96 its 60ema on 5 min chart too. 94.75 small supp.


(Sep 07-14:14) mike: 96 was reversed after stalling. scalps but still vulnerable under 96


(Sep 07-14:19) mike: bids dry up n give pullback up here
(Sep 07-14:37) mike: if 95.50 isn't cleared, mkt in some trouble
(Sep 07-14:45) mike: 90.50 in the cards it looks. 94.50-9500 good r
(Sep 07-14:58) mike: 90.50 reached. 93 resist now

(Sep 07-15:06) mike: The ES made a double top at 1096.50 and the drop stopped at the 1090.50-1090.00 zone. The 1093.00-1093.75 area needs cleared/ held now or 1086.00-1085.50 can still be seen.

(Sep 07-15:26) mike: old supp turned new resist 3 times today. 90.50 need hold or 86 area


(Sep 07-15:57) mike: trend down day. 86 area could be tested then a rally attempt. have a good day

 

 

 

Friday- September 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 03-08:46) mike: this morning 98 area is sup 1. that should hold or this would be a blow off top. 1104 resist, 1108 a key area
(Sep 03-09:08) mike: 98 area needs to hold or a top will be in
(Sep 03-09:42) mike: 1104 AREA R1,
(Sep 03-09:44) mike: 1102 supp, 99 is key , a top in if broken.
(Sep 03-09:49) mike: 1104 reversed, 1102 held so far... 1102 now key,
(Sep 03-10:02) mike: 123 top on the news, top should in, resist 1102-03
(Sep 03-10:08) mike: 1102 failed, bounces still shorts
(Sep 03-10:09) mike: 95.50 cluster supp next

(Sep 03-10:18) mike: 95.50 held so far, but the market gapped up on the open and reversed from 1104 resistance in the first 15 minutes, and bounce to 1104 reversed setting up a 123 top. That put in a top for the move, bounces will be sold and if the 1095 area breaks/ holds then trends all turn down.

(Sep 03-10:29) mike: 95.50 reached. but nq lead dog. 1100 is pivotal , 1862 nq. stay with shorts to 90 area
(Sep 03-10:39) mike: a move up to 98 are that stalls will be sold. 10400 dow cash index resist too
(Sep 03-10:52) mike: gap days are often times trend days. under 1098.50-99,50 is just that
(Sep 03-10:54) mike: ty
(Sep 03-11:03) mike: t 96 needs cleared/ held to get a dent in dn side momentum
(Sep 03-11:08) mike: a bit of a falling wedge. 95.50 area supp , must hold
(Sep 03-11:12) mike: 97.50 key here
(Sep 03-11:50) mike: i''m selling under 98.50-99.50 resist, 10400 n dow cash
(Sep 03-11:52) mike: nq need to break 1856-55 to start trouble
(Sep 03-11:56) mike: back to flat, a good bid at 96
(Sep 03-11:59) mike: dow cash 10400, 1098.50-1099.50 es, 1860 nq area all pivotal up here. need to push thru

(Sep 03-12:15) mike: the internal gauges and vix will be giving sell sigs today or tuesday. suggest small position in puts up here , or a bounce after there is break of 96 for ''proof'' on part

(Sep 03-12:38) mike: 96 should hold. mkt in good shape for today unless 1100 rejected, or 97 breaks
(Sep 03-12:44) mike: 98.50 supp. should hold
(Sep 03-12:44) mike: 1859 supp on nq ..
(Sep 03-13:04) mike: STAIR STEP UP AS LONG AS 1100 HOLDS , sorry re caps
(Sep 03-13:14) mike: 1100 need hold , or transition back down

(Sep 03-13:42) mike: 1100 holding. a higher high towards 1108 if they can break / hold 1104 area . nq has been leading both ways today. its good over 1863 at this time

(Sep 03-13:55) mike: watch 1866.50 on nq, that looks key up here
(Sep 03-14:01) mike: 1868-1870 on NQ key area resist
(Sep 03-14:02) mike: it needs to stay over 1866 or its rolling over
(Sep 03-14:09) mike: key area, key timeframe. a pullback should start
(Sep 03-14:11) mike: watch 1863 area on NQ for key supp,

(Sep 03-14:24) mike: small shake out. still see 1863 area on nq as key for this to continue. and 1101 on ES now. its been a trend up day after early pullback. mkt ok unless supp breaks n not reversed quickly

(Sep 03-14:40) mike: small short on bounce for a swing trade , start small core position short sp500
(Sep 03-14:41) mike: puts or SDS , can trade around it w/ ES if necessary
(Sep 03-14:47) mike: tight stop on this, 1103 shouldn't be exceeded now
(Sep 03-14:51) mike: if 1100 goes, 98.50 is the next key supp , 1863 on NQ still
(Sep 03-15:01) mike: 1 hour left guys, target 1 met. keeping a core short over w/e unless 1103 cleared . enjoy your holiday w/e

 

 

Thursday- September 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 02-09:53) mike: My main screen PC lost power unit and i'm on 1 screen today. Any updates will be in the message room. My apologies.

(Sep 02-09:53) mike: 1082.50-1083.00 and 1822.50-1823.50 rejected, need a clear that bearish under
(Sep 02-09:53) mike: 82..00-81.50 needs to hold, on pullback up here
(Sep 02-10:03) mike: 1825 on nq key
(Sep 02-10:07) mike: 123 top possible
(Sep 02-10:21) mike: top up there, 83 resist
(Sep 02-10:28) mike: 83.50 heavily traded area this morn. need to get thru 84 and not reverse
(Sep 02-10:49) mike: sell a pop higher, 1085.25-86.00 area rejected, then quick to cover on dip/ 83.50 area supp needs to hold

(Sep 02-10:53) mike: i'm trading without my normal ''view'' as other PC in the shop until tomorrow morning. but the new highs have been sold, then covered on 1.50 pt dips

(Sep 02-11:04) mike: just by dips over 84.50 for now
(Sep 02-11:06) mike: oh boy.... if they bounce, sell em, that was a top.......
(Sep 02-11:13) mike: 86.50 is a level from 8/18 and was pivotal just before big drop

(Sep 02-11:25) mike: this is what happens after the internals so skewed yesterday. if they get up to test the high and fail, its a good short. i doubt they get there, but beware. nq trying to hold, but a break accelerates this

(Sep 02-11:38) mike: 79 key supp on a drop thru 81.50

(Sep 02-12:45) mike: I'm still operating without my normal setup, but can update during this lull. The 1081.50-1081.00 area is a key support now. On the top, 1086.50 was a pivotal level before the August 19th drop and good resistance. This is not a good place to be buying, wait for a deeper pullback or short a pop near the highs.

(Sep 02-12:53) mike: see where i said put stop /
(Sep 02-12:55) mike: sorry wrong chat box, a friend covered his short early
(Sep 02-13:00) mike: 82.50-84.00 resist now
(Sep 02-13:01) mike: longs feel profits getting away from them
(Sep 02-13:02) mike: thats 83.50-84.00
(Sep 02-13:11) mike: 83.50 reversed. watch 79 area for key area of supp

(Sep 02-13:25) mike: if 82.5 there holds, and the mkt has enough gusto to get over 83.50-84.00 and holds, then it can get its uptrend back. under 83.50-84.00 a drop to 75 possible

(Sep 02-13:36) mike: dip should hold 83 at worst , 82.25 now key here
(Sep 02-14:03) mike: 83 held so still a chance to go to highs.... 83.50 now supp
(Sep 02-14:18) mike: new high not far from 1088.50...... if thats blown thru, 93 area possible to top off this run up. 85 needs to hold
(Sep 02-14:26) mike: 85 held... but they trapped rally chasers , especially nq... another pop up that stalls up there is a short
(Sep 02-14:32) mike: a 123 type pattern possible. if cant stat over 85 then upside may be over
(Sep 02-14:38) mike: needs to get going up soon ,
(Sep 02-14:43) mike: big price move, internal gauges stretched overbought, Vix close to givin

(Sep 02-14:48) mike: sell sigs, there is not much upside from these levels. to 1092.00-1092.50 on ES possibly, but NQ met its 1838.25-1839.50 zone and rejected ... if high not in tomorrow a top should be made, tuesday latest looking at my work

(Sep 02-15:08) mike: scalpers mkt today. remember, no update tonight. tomorrow i'll update here until early afternoon.

(Sep 02-15:08) mike: Today, September 2nd at 4:30pm eastern time, my friend DeWayne
at CFRN.net is hosting a Webinar you may be interested in. He
will be interviewing Garrett Jones of Long Wave Cycle, and it
should be interesting to see and listen to. For more info and
to sign up go here:

http://www.cfrn.net/2010/08/garrett-jones-webinar-long-wave-cycle.html

(Sep 02-15:13) mike: shorts covering before tomorrow jobs data, 88.50, 92.50-93.50 resist, -- if nq doesn't stay over 1832 its not good

(Sep 02-15:35) mike: 88.50, then 92 resist/ targets
(Sep 02-15:37) mike: 87 need hold,

(Sep 02-16:01) mike: should see 92
 

 

Wednesday- September 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Sep 01-09:23) mike: 58, then 53 areas good supp
(Sep 01-09:33) mike: 1798 on nq key area, 1064.50 es
(Sep 01-09:42) mike: nq topped,
(Sep 01-09:43) mike: 1791-88 there is key supp now
(Sep 01-09:52) mike: tpp of this range rejected on open. econ data top of the hour. 61 needs to hold. a decent pullback is a buy
(Sep 01-10:08) mike: clean break out, the 1070-1069 needs to hold on pullback
(Sep 01-10:15) mike: 73 needs to hold now to stay trend up / 77.50-78.50 resist
(Sep 01-10:22) mike: The ES gapped up and rallied strong off the ISM number to break the range. The ES has good resistance at 1077.50-1078.50 to get over and hold, or we get more pullback. The 1073 area needs to hold or trends turn down and the 1066-1065 area is then good support.

(Sep 01-10:35) mike: 73 held and nq very strong.. if this lasts into lunchtime or early afternoon, and stall out, could get a decent sized pullback. but gap days often are trend days. unless a topping pattern or break of 73 the bulls in charge

(Sep 01-10:46) mike: watch 1816 on nq , if broken its trend up grind tops out for a decent pullback
(Sep 01-10:57) mike: if long 77.50-78.50 is a good resist to cover
(Sep 01-11:07) mike: mkt having trouble at resist, a top if 76.50-76.00 not defended
(Sep 01-11:13) mike: The ES held at 1073 on a dip and ran up to the 1077.50-1078.50 resistance. Gap days are often times trend days, but that looks like a morning high if the 1076 area is not defended. A drop to 1073 area must reverse fast or tthe market is back in some trouble.

(Sep 01-11:38) mike: need to push thu... losing momentum
(Sep 01-12:04) mike: this has been trend up, but lost momentum and NQ can not get thru 1825... a decent drop coming

(Sep 01-12:11) mike: The 1076 level held and the ES popped up to 1079.50 while the NQ couldn't get over 1825 and is backing off. This could be the start of a decent pullback, the 1076 needs to hold or then 1073 is a must hold area.

(Sep 01-12:21) mike: we could see 73 area, use a bounce to short or look for a reversal if drop to that area or a bit lower.
(Sep 01-12:28) mike: a great short if they pop up one more time , but 76 looks break and 73-71 area likely
(Sep 01-12:41) mike: 77.25 small resist, 75 should go
(Sep 01-12:41) mike: follow nq lead here
(Sep 01-12:50) mike: 76 key area. NQ needs to turn up or they get hit
(Sep 01-13:14) mike: mkt got legs, a dip to 77 should hold.
(Sep 01-13:20) mike: 77 held. its pivotal up here
(Sep 01-13:35) mike: as long as they stay over 76 area the mkt is bullish . dips are buying opportunites
(Sep 01-13:38) mike: nq needs to stay over 1818-1817 area
(Sep 01-13:43) mike: 1818.50 on nq is key, its acting tired
(Sep 01-13:48) mike: 78.50 was held about 2 min last time, its good resist to exit any longs , buy em back on a pullback
(Sep 01-13:57) mike: bids dry up when SPX gets to 1080. looking like a short on a test
(Sep 01-14:07) mike: The ES pulled back to 1075.75 and turned up and the high was tested. As long as that 1076 area on ES and 1818 on NQ hold the market is still okay, but if broken then a top for today in in place.

(Sep 01-14:12) mike: sell 78.50-79.00 area on a test / reversal
(Sep 01-14:15) mike: 77.50 good resist now
(Sep 01-14:16) mike: 1818 area on nq a short too
(Sep 01-14:20) mike: 73-72 in the cards, reversal must ocur there or not good
(Sep 01-14:29) mike: 77.50-77.25 good resist still. a drop to 73 area should be bought if today's breakout is for real

(Sep 01-14:33) mike: The ES rejected the 1079 area (1080 on SP500 cash) all day, and if 1077.25 is exceeded it has a chance to be tested. Given this action, a spill to 1073-1072 area is still possible and that will be bought if the break out today is for real.

(Sep 01-14:48) mike: The ES turned down from 1077.25 so a high should be in place, a test of 1073-1070 zone still is possible but would be reversed if the market is still in good shape.

(Sep 01-14:53) mike: tomorrow i will do audio updates if mkt not too slow. for now bears in charge under 76.75-77.25 dn to 73 area
(Sep 01-15:08) mike: 76.50 good supp, a buy if reached and stalls/ turns up.
(Sep 01-15:16) mike: this late , not buying 76.50. tiny range after gap up. reward/ risk not good
(Sep 01-15:29) mike: 78-79 rejected all day. small short a test for swing trade , that 75 area must hold or trouble again
(Sep 01-15:35) mike: scratch this
(Sep 01-15:45) mike: 81.50-82.50 resist , supp at 78 now

 

 

Tuesday- August 31, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 31-09:06) mike: under the weather this morn...... i will update in a few hours i hope
(Aug 31-10:07) mike: must get over 50 and hold there
(Aug 31-10:10) mike: its ok to go for 52 if 49.50 holds
(Aug 31-10:16) mike: 1052.00-1052.50 area a short / tgt stop
(Aug 31-10:17) mike: 48.25-47.75 key supp cluster now

(Aug 31-10:21) mike: The ES dropped to 1039.25 and turned up after 12 minutes of trading and bounced to the 1047.25 level. A dip held 1043.25 and the run up took the ES to the 1052.00-1052.50 area so far. That should be a top, but 1044.25-1047.75 is support that must hold to keep the bounce alive. Next update after noon. n

(Aug 31-10:36) mike: a 123 top, but need follow thru soon
(Aug 31-10:54) mike: low and high for the morning are in place it looks, unless 52 exceeded.
(Aug 31-11:05) mike: 3rd time up here, 49 is pivotal on a pullback now, must hold that area to stay out of trouble
(Aug 31-11:09) mike: could bounce here, but 52,50 es and1774 good r on nq too .

(Aug 31-11:47) mike: The market has been holding on the pullbacks to 1047.50 area, but the bounces are not sticking giving a two-sided day so far. In front of the Fed Minutes this afternoon, sell a move to test or exceed the highs, and/or buy a dip that holds around 1048.

(Aug 31-11:56) mike: pullback here should hold 51.25, higher high/ lows on intraday charts
(Aug 31-11:58) mike: new highs not sticking, so selling a higher high is ''easier'' trade/ scalp anyhow.
(Aug 31-12:09) mike: higher highs old, if short from near the high stry to 51 area
(Aug 31-12:11) mike: a top it looks, re short a bounce . highs shouldnt be exceeded/ held
(Aug 31-12:30) mike: ES and NQ are acting a bit different. 1775 needs cleared soon or they get a shake out lower
(Aug 31-12:37) mike: 52 for ES needs exceeded/held here.

(Aug 31-12:54) mike: The ES make a token higher high at 1054.25 and that was sold, and the drop to 1048.75 caught a bid. The market acts vulnerable so a break/ hold over 1052 is needed to get the market out of danger now.

(Aug 31-12:56) mike: not buying here, shorts under 52 in order
(Aug 31-13:09) mike: 48 is holding, but still need to clear 52 and not reverse.....
(Aug 31-13:18) mike: a dip to 49.75 area will hold if going higher. 52 area still key above, 48 below if 49.75 breaks
(Aug 31-13:29) mike: Fed Minutes in about 30 minutes. nothing aggressive until 48 or 52 broken/ held on a pullback... not a fake out move
(Aug 31-13:48) mike: 52 not held... 50.50 looks key, then 48

(Aug 31-14:05) mike: The ES bounced off of 1048.00 but had had trouble at the 1052 area. Until either side of that range is broken and held then on a pullback, sell near 1052 and buy/ cover near 1048 on the ES. After the Fed Minutes this should show its strong or still weak.

(Aug 31-14:19) mike: be short a bounce wont stick
(Aug 31-14:26) mike: some supp at 46.50-46.00, this bounce will fail
(Aug 31-14:29) mike: reached 46.50, still a high is in sell a bounce
(Aug 31-14:33) mike: 49.50 resist, follow NQ
(Aug 31-14:39) mike: 48 good resist now
(Aug 31-14:41) mike: 48.00-48.50 strong resist now. 46.50 on es, 1765 nq small resist
(Aug 31-14:46) mike: if 43 broken/ held, then 37 area next. 46.25 needs cleard to dent downside

(Aug 31-14:54) mike: The ES reversed 1053 after the Fed Minutes and it's been down hill to the 11042.50 area. A bounce should fail to clear/ hold 1046.50-1047.25 area, but if it is then 1048.50 should be a key area on a bounce. If not cleared, the market is vulneranle still.

(Aug 31-15:05) mike: 46.50 just missed, mustclear/ hold to avoid push towards lower low
(Aug 31-15:10) mike: 37.25-36.50 possible still if 1046.50 not taken out and sticks

(Aug 31-15:24) mike: a try for a dbl bottom at 43 supp. thats key end of day, 46.50 on top. i'm not feeling well. if i update it will be late. 37.50 if they break here. have a good day

 

 

Monday- August 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 30-08:45) mike: 1064.25-1065.25 has been sold 3 times pre open.

 
(Aug 30-09:44) mike: The ES bounced off of initial support on the open and that 1059 area is still key support. The 1064.25-1065.25 resistance was sold pre open for stocks and is the key resistance.

(Aug 30-10:08) mike: 61.50-61.00 needs to hold or the mood goes from buy dips to sell bounces -- 2 sided action expected . 


(Aug 30-10:12) mike: top in for now
(Aug 30-10:17) mike: 58.00-57.50 ,  10100 dow cash is small supp
(Aug 30-10:25) mike: 58.50 reached,  but 61 area is resist now, 


(Aug 30-10:32) mike: The bounce stalled and reversed from just under the 1064.25 resistance and dropped 1057.50 so far. Resistance is at 1060.50-1061.25 area, and if the 1054.50-1054.00 area breaks then the market could be in trouble and the 2 sided action will be on hold until later in the day.

(Aug 30-10:52) mike: resist here, but as long as the Dow cash index stays over 10100 the mkt is ok, 2 way choppy day , 

 
(Aug 30-11:20) mike: the Vix up 5.6% on mild down... it implies a good sized move ,  a break/ hold of 10100 on DOW CASH needed to break to downside


(Aug 30-11:28) mike: The bounce reversed down from 1061.50 on the ES and the market is testing the lows. A break/ hold of 10100 on the Dow CASH is needed to break lower out of this range, and the 1061 area needs exceeded/ held to get a move going on the upside. The bears are in charge under 1061.50 right now.

(Aug 30-11:38) mike: under 59 pressure on


(Aug 30-11:40) mike: 59.50 es, 1791 nq need cleared/ held [not quick reversal] to turn trend / avoid trouble


(Aug 30-11:47) mike: 57.50-58.00 good resist now,   1054.50-1054.00 is "must hold"
(Aug 30-11:59) mike: 54.50 key, take profits


(Aug 30-12:21) mike: 57 resist now.  54.50 held,  things dull,  if short from earlier lock in some profits / trail stop on rest


(Aug 30-12:25) mike: The bears pushed the ES to the 1054.50-1054.00 support, and that is holding. The 1057.75-1058.25 area is resistance to clear/ hold to get out of trend down mode.

(Aug 30-12:44) mike: important area there, 57.50-58.25
(Aug 30-13:03) mike: The ES popped up to 1059.00 and turned down. That 1054.50 area will be key on a test and must hold to avoid a sharper drop. If 1059 is exceeded, then 1061-1062 would be max unless something odd happens and a good short if reached and stalls out.

(Aug 30-13:22) mike: sell a pop up ,  mkt acts bad.....   58 area, 1788 nq should be a gift


(Aug 30-13:43) mike: The action still is poor, sporadic short covering bounces followed by more downside.. and now the 1056 area is resistance on a feeble bounce. The 1054.50-1054.00 area was quickly reversed, but a hold over 1056 just dents the downside momentum, as a better bounce will fail.

(Aug 30-14:01) mike: under 56 pressure still on... 1785 nq  on a bounce .  

 
(Aug 30-14:06) mike: its been a sneaky, tricky, but trend down type of day after the early going.  stay with shorts on the pop ups, or stay short trail stop over mini swing high


(Aug 30-14:17) mike: The 1055.75 level was reached on a bounce and the drip drip lower is still in gear. If the 1048.75-1048.00 area is broken, and not quickly reversed and held, the downside could gather steam. There is resistance at the 1054.50 area now. 

(Aug 30-14:30) mike: this isn't enough to get bullish, but a test of 53.50 that stalls/ reverses may b a scalp long
(Aug 30-14:44) mike:  58 resist if 56 finally exceeded


(Aug 30-14:53) mike: could bounce but not buying, stay w/ shorts on bounce.. longs are risky , collapse at anytime possible


(Aug 30-15:09) mike: The 1054.50 level was exceeded and a test of 1056 failed again. The market is vulnerable, stay with shorts unless 1056 is cleared/ held on a pullback as the 1048.75-1048.00 area could srill be in the cards.

(Aug 30-15:16) mike: 54 small resist...  ,  48.75-48.00 s must hold
(Aug 30-15:21) mike: 52.50-53.00 resist...  another push lower then if tested - rejected
(Aug 30-15:28) mike: 52.50 sold.   52.50-53.00  pivotal end of day here
(Aug 30-15:35) mike: 48.75 bid to cover day trade shorts,  if holding a core short trail stops
(Aug 30-15:38) mike: flatten out
(Aug 30-15:41) mike: 52.50 looks key here end of day.   have a good rest of the day
(Aug 30-15:51) mike: ugly day, if still in shorts stay w/ them to 43 area if  a settlement under 1048
(Aug 30-16:00) mike: 52.50 was pivotal, the 1048.75-1048.00 es  1771.25-1770.50 nq critical -

 

 

 

Friday- August 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 27-09:25) mike: 50.50 area supp1, then 47.50 area s2 / Bernanke at top of the hour.
(Aug 27-09:33) mike: 55.00-55.0 es 1786.75-1787.50 on nq, bearish under
(Aug 27-09:46) mike: 47.50 key, or 43 next
(Aug 27-10:02) mike: 47 area good r now,

(Aug 27-10:05) mike: The pop up open was sold just under 1055 resistance and the ES dropped to 1047.50 and bounced, but that didn't stick and another sharp drop to 1038.00-1037.00 so far. the 1047-1048 good resistance, bounces are shorts as NQ leads the way today.

(Aug 27-10:09) mike: 43 resist,
(Aug 27-10:17) mike: 48 was break dn area, a pullback needs to hold 45
(Aug 27-10:24) mike: 44.75 was reversed, tht area key supp now.
(Aug 27-10:35) mike: nq rolling over, needs to get over 1779 soon , 1048 supp on es

(Aug 27-10:41) mike: The 1038-1037 area was reversed and a run to test the highs stalled so far. A drop should hold 1048 area to keep the upside intact. That will be key on a pullback as a double bottom at major support is in place at this time. The 1055 are is the next hurdle to break/ hold to avoid potential reversal.

(Aug 27-10:47) mike: bids dry up at highs, need a hold over 53 to get out of trouble... a decent dip should hold 45 area, otherwise they are breaking down again

(Aug 27-10:57) mike: 52 shouldn't be exceeded. if topped there / 48 supp must hold

(Aug 27-11:15) mike: The ES pulled back to 1048.75 and turned up, so the market is in god shape unless that's not held. The 1058.75-1059.50 is next resistance, then the 1062-1063 area. If 1055 is broken after a reversal up there, its a heads up that the rally may be over.

(Aug 27-11:19) mike: 56.50 trend up supp
(Aug 27-11:34) mike: small short up here,
(Aug 27-11:35) mike: stall at resist, 55 test if 56.75 break
(Aug 27-11:40) mike: scalp out of part 56.50 or better
(Aug 27-11:42) mike: 57.50 rest now
(Aug 27-11:56) mike: might be top but a dip as long as 55 area holds , the mkt stays out of trouble. 53.00-52.50 under that
(Aug 27-11:58) mike: The 1058.75-1059.50 area has been a lid and a drop needs to hold 1055 to avoid a drop to 10048 area, that is still key today.

(Aug 27-12:06) mike: if 56 is broken and held on a bounce, the trend rolls over. but as long as 56 area holds, can make a push higher, 62 area possible

(Aug 27-12:24) mike: need to keep pushing higher with a bid on the 2 pt dips
(Aug 27-12:28) mike: if long cover on pop up, a deeper drop possible here
(Aug 27-12:34) mike: that might be it.... 58 must hold still
(Aug 27-12:40) mike: a bounce should fail now, a test of 56 key now
(Aug 27-12:46) mike: 1056 held, but a top looks in place,, if there is a bounce to a lower high and it reverses, then a 123 type top can finish this move off.

(Aug 27-12:56) mike: The 1058.75-1059.50 zone was exceeded by 1 tick and reversed and 1056 was tested. A bounce to a test of the high that reverses is a gift shorting opportunity, but its under pressure under 1058 now.

(Aug 27-13:04) mike: 54.25 was open, 60 ema on 5 min chart, its now key transition area
(Aug 27-13:07) mike: 56 break / hold so far
(Aug 27-13:16) mike: this mkt could get its knees taken out if 56 not cleared/ held.... 1783 on

(Aug 27-13:32) mike: The ES dropped to make a little double bottom at 1054.25 and that was the opening price and key support now. The 1059.75 level still needs cleared, as a double top is also possible up here. If cleared then 1064 area is possible.

(Aug 27-13:41) mike: crazy action, but a bounce off 57.00-56.50 likely
(Aug 27-13:57) mike: can still get to 62-64 area, but be looking for reversal in tht area
(Aug 27-14:11) mike: a trend up day, but 61.50-64.00 band is big resist,
(Aug 27-14:53) mike: gap just missed filling, its been trend up but 63.00-64.25 should be top area
(Aug 27-14:57) mike: get some puts if 1 more push higher, that resist should be top area today/ monday

(Aug 27-15:10) mike: The ES reached 1063 and backed off. That area, up to 1064.25-1066.00 max, is good resistance and a spot for a top today or Monday morning.

(Aug 27-15:29) mike: 59 is last hour low so far and key supp end of day , a run to 64.25-66.50 zone is the key resist.

 

 

Thursday- August 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 26-09:39) mike: 55 supp 1
(Aug 26-09:48) mike: 58.50 still key early
(Aug 26-09:53) mike: 56.00-56.50 good resist now
(Aug 26-10:08) mike: 57 needs hold
(Aug 26-10:09) mike: gotta get over initial resist soon
(Aug 26-10:09) mike: 57 now key spp

(Aug 26-10:16) mike: The ES reversed the initial resistance and was sold on the open and after dropping 5+ points the first pullback held over 1052.00 and turned back up. The 1057 level is now key support that should hold if going higher. If that breaks on a pullback, then the high for today is in place. A good rally should be hard to hold so beware of a reversal if the 1062 area is tested/ rejected.

(Aug 26-10:22) mike: the max upside is 1069 area, not all one day, sell against 58.50-60.00 , should be lots trapped up there
(Aug 26-10:35) mike: resist 58.50 , 1795 on nq resist
(Aug 26-10:41) mike: pullback should hold 58 area as this chops around, 62 area good resist
(Aug 26-10:48) mike: nq is struggling, its a short if 1795-97 area tested
(Aug 26-10:50) mike: 58 area held, but tentative mkt and vulnerable
(Aug 26-10:54) mike: nq is topped out, sell any bounce that stalls out, 1793-94 resist
(Aug 26-11:05) mike: be short under 57.50

(Aug 26-11:12) mike: The ES rejected 1060.25 as the NQ had trouble at 1800 and the break opened an air pocket type drop. A bounce will be a good short and that will be the easier course down towards 1043 if the 1050.75 level break/ holds.

(Aug 26-11:15) mike: 1784-86 good resist on nq , 5450 es
(Aug 26-11:28) mike: a two sided day, but high is bin for today, sell strength
(Aug 26-11:42) mike: 55 area key now. as long as under that the mkt vulnerable
(Aug 26-12:17) mike: another failure under 55..... look for 47 area if the 50.50 level breaks
(Aug 26-12:19) mike: The updated 1055 area was rejected twice, then short covering comes in around 1050.75 support. Stay with shorts unless 1055 is cleared/ held.

(Aug 26-12:30) mike: another rejection, but supp to 52 should hold
(Aug 26-12:42) mike: if you have been short the bounces, cover some at 52 at least and trail stop
(Aug 26-12:53) mike: 47 area is next and key

(Aug 26-13:02) mike: The 1054.25 level was rejected again and the ES dropped to 1050.00 so far. The market has been bouncing from that area, so if the 1050 area isn't held then 1047 area is next, then 1043 if there is an air pocket drop. The 1055 area still needs cleared/ held to get a decent run up going instead of chopping around.

(Aug 26-13:24) mike: 50.50 held again. a bounce to 55 or so possible , if 51.50 holds
(Aug 26-13:28) mike: could hang in here and make a little rally
(Aug 26-13:38) mike: failed again, need to hold 51.75 at worst to move up

(Aug 26-13:46) mike: The ES reversed up from 1050.50 but still has trouble holding the gains. The ES needs to get over 1053.50 and not reverse to avoid more down side and get a decent bounce going.

(Aug 26-13:56) mike: 1048.25-1047.75 if no quick reversal .
(Aug 26-14:06) mike: 51.00-51.50 resist now.
(Aug 26-14:11) mike: stay w/ shorts , 43 area possible . , bounce needs to clear/ hold over 50
(Aug 26-14:15) mike: 48.50 trend r
(Aug 26-14:17) mike: dropped 7.50 pts off 1053.50... after a bounce, another 7 point drop off bounce high possible.
(Aug 26-14:21) mike: The ES failed at 1053 and the break of 1050 brought in more selling. A bounce should fail near 1049 and if so we can get 1 more push lower on this leg down.

(Aug 26-14:25) mike: resist 48.50-49.50 area, that shouldn't be exceeded/ held . 1775 nq
(Aug 26-14:31) mike: 43-41 area if 48 not exceeded

(Aug 26-14:43) mike: looks like 1775 on NQ, 10000 dow cash are pivotal it looks.
(Aug 26-14:56) mike: look for 43-41 zone to get tested still, 46 resist
(Aug 26-14:58) mike: take profits there, trail stop on any left
(Aug 26-15:00) mike: 43 hit. i'll be back in 15 min or so

(Aug 26-15:13) mike: The ES reached the 1043 support/ target and bounced. That might be it for the drop, but only if 1048 is cleared/ held.

(Aug 26-15:24) mike: this might fiz here n roll over
(Aug 26-15:25) mike: anyhow have a great rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- August 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 25-09:13) mike: could be ugly day
(Aug 25-09:28) mike: a drop under 41 that turns back up thru 41 would be ideal long set up. we'll see. 48-49 first resist
(Aug 25-09:52) mike: 44 must be cleared / held

(Aug 25-10:19) mike: The ES and SP500 cash reached the key support and bounced back. The lows should hold if tested, but if broken then the market is in bad shape. The 1045 area needs cleared/ held to avoid more downside.

(Aug 25-10:32) mike: 44.50-45.00 on ES, 10,000 dow cash resist , must get over and hold , vulnerable unless it occurs
(Aug 25-10:35) mike: 41 was transition, key here

(Aug 25-10:52) mike: The 1044.50 level on the ES turned the market back down, but didn't stay under 1040 very long. As long as the 1040 area holds, the 1048.50-1049.50 area has a chance of being reached. Getting over 1045 and not reversing is needed to kick that move in gear.

(Aug 25-11:08) mike: pullback needs to hold over 44.50 area here
(Aug 25-11:12) mike: that should be a high. 43.00-42.50 is key supp, if not defended, lows get test

(Aug 25-11:19) mike: follow NQs lead, its stronger all morning, 1772-1770 area good supp there,

(Aug 25-11:35) mike: The 1048.50-1049.50 area was reached and the market is backing off. That is key resistance and the market remains vulnerable unless cleared/ held.

(Aug 25-11:52) mike: 45 is key/ a bounce here to 47.00-47.50 that fails is negative

(Aug 25-12:03) mike: 46.25 should hold
(Aug 25-12:07) mike: its going to be choppy, but nothing good happens unless 48.50 exceeded / held
(Aug 25-12:16) mike: should bounce off 45 area, but short under 48.50 best odds now

(Aug 25-12:22) mike: The ES pulled back to 1045.00 support and turned back up but the ES still must clear/ hold 1048.50-1049.00 still, or another sharp drop is possible. The 1040 area on SP500 Cash is the major support and must stay over to avoid a panic selloff.

(Aug 25-12:32) mike: 42.50 s

(Aug 25-12:43) mike: The ES reached and reversed from the big cluster of support this morning and the ES rallied 11 points to the 1048.50 resistance and had all kinds of trouble up there. Nothing good happens unless that is cleared/held. A drop to 1043.00-1042.50 must quickly reverse, or the lows could be next.

(Aug 25-12:55) mike: 45 r now
(Aug 25-12:57) mike: 45 key now, short under
(Aug 25-12:57) mike: dow cash 10000
(Aug 25-13:17) mike: if nq pops up a bit its a short, 1775 good resist
(Aug 25-13:23) mike: the 60ema on 5 min chart was rejected at last 2 bounce highs, its 1047 now.
(Aug 25-13:24) mike: 45.00 supp key on ES now, 1772 on nq
(Aug 25-13:27) mike: 3 failures at 60ema now, 45 is pivotal. if broken then 43.00-42.50 is the key supp on a drop now,

(Aug 25-13:34) mike: A drop to 1043.75 was reversed but the 60ema on 5 minute chart has turned the ES back 3 times now, it's at 1047 currently, and must be cleared to avoid trouble late day. That 1043.00-1042.50 area should be solid support if the market is going to have a bottom at the key support in place.

(Aug 25-13:45) mike: 47.00-46.50 shouldn't be broken now to keep upside going
(Aug 25-13:59) mike: held at 47.25 , made double top- 47 must hold

(Aug 25-14:05) mike: The 1047 level was broken and held on a dip so the market will stay in uptrend as long as that holds, with resistance at 1050.50-1052.00 zone. if 1047 breaks then trends turn.

(Aug 25-14:11) mike: 48.50 supp needs to stay up here
(Aug 25-14:20) mike: the 50.50 was rejected, good resist up here, if not topped, 1 more push 1052.75-1053.25 is huge today

(Aug 25-14:31) mike: The ES reached 1050.75 and backed off. The 1048.50-1048.00 area was good resistance, and now must hold on this dip to avoid another poor close. The 1043.00-1042.50 area would be key on a break.

(Aug 25-14:34) mike: stair step higher as long as 48.50 holds , 52-53 key
(Aug 25-15:01) mike: 52.50 now supp, must hold
(Aug 25-15:34) mike: dips will hold 51.50-50.50 if holding for another day up
(Aug 25-15:43) mike: 1057.25-1058.25 good resist , 54.50-54.00 supp must hold
(Aug 25-15:53) mike: top at resist, a short if tested in the morning

 

 

Tuesday- August 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 24-09:07) mike: The air pocket was hit overnight and the 1042-1040 area should be seen on this leg down. There is small resistance at 1054.50-1056.00 and then key resistance at the 1061.75-1062.25 area, but bounces will be shorting opportunities to the 1038 area on the ES.

(Aug 24-09:19) mike: the update musta spooked the mkt

(Aug 24-09:28) mike: short should use tht spike low as sign to cover some, re short higher up

(Aug 24-10:02) mike: 50.25-51.25 resist

(Aug 24-10:31) mike: The ES nose dived to 1044.25 and turned back up and reached 1053.50. The 1054.50-1056.00 area needs cleared/ held or the market will remain vulnerable. The 1050.50 area needs to hold or back to test the lows if likely.

(Aug 24-10:50) mike: 49.00-48.50 key supp now, if broken and not reversed quickly, mkt rolls over again. 54.50-55.00 key resist

(Aug 24-11:09) mike: 53.50 supp, must hold as 56.50 is a good resist, top for move

(Aug 24-11:37) mike: The ES reached 1056.25 and pulled back. The 1052 level held on the dip, and that must hold to avoid rolling over. There is resistance at 1057.50-1058.00, then if exceeded a test of the 1061.75-1062.25 area is the big resistance overhead.

(Aug 24-11:47) mike: thats it for now
(Aug 24-11:48) mike: 55.50-55.00 supp
(Aug 24-11:53) mike: 55.50 needs to break, or a 123 type of top will se up on bounce
(Aug 24-12:09) mike: a test of 57.50-58.00 that reverses is a short w/ tight stop
(Aug 24-12:12) mike: 57.50 shouldnt be exceeded, trail stop
(Aug 24-12:15) mike: scale out 1/3 here
(Aug 24-12:19) mike: needs to stay under 56 area... 54.00-53.50 key supp now.
(Aug 24-12:24) mike: 55.00 resist now. take partial profits on short
(Aug 24-12:24) mike: tighten stops too

(Aug 24-12:28) mike: The ES reached 1058.25 and pulled back, then the pop to 1057.50 was reversed and a 123 top was made. The market does not get out of trouble today unless that 1058 area is cleared and then held on a pullback, or the lows are tested and the market quickly reverses back up.

(Aug 24-12:41) mike: 54.50 needs cleared held soon if going to rally 1 more time

(Aug 24-12:53) mike: stay w/ shorts under 54.50

(Aug 24-13:09) mike: off 57.50 point 3 of the 123 top the es down almost 6 points, keep trailing stop as that might be high for the day.

(Aug 24-13:21) mike: flatten out. or stop at 54.50 at worst , mkt acting a little better, must roll over soon if heading lower

(Aug 24-13:47) mike: 54 a good resist . sell this bounce

(Aug 24-13:59) mike: The bounces still are not able to stick and 1042-1040 still can be seen if the 1058 area is not exceeded today. A bounce to 1052.50-1054.00 zone should fail if the market is still weak.

(Aug 24-14:20) mike: stall at resist, 52.00 supp must hold

(Aug 24-14:35) mike: The ES bounced to 1053.75 and backed off. If not cleared/ held this afternoon we could see another sharp drop.

(Aug 24-14:43) mike: some strange action. look to buy a dip back towards 51 if they stall and begin to turn back up, and watch for a reversal from near 55 for a short

(Aug 24-14:51) mike: 52 area needs to hold now , if broken then a bounce that follows should fail , a little wedge would break
(Aug 24-15:06) mike: as long as 53 holds this can rally without another end of day failure.
(Aug 24-15:11) mike: 54.50-54.00 here needs to hold now
(Aug 24-15:29) mike: 55.00-54.50 was the opening range. need to hold that to avoid poor close
(Aug 24-15:44) mike: 53.60 resist, a close dn here not good
(Aug 24-15:53) mike: another bad close, 1042-1040. tomorrow possible
(Aug 24-15:54) mike: have a great rest of the day, be short small something

 

 

Monday- August 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 23-09:02) mike: 1077.25-1078.00 reached pre open, a top up there
(Aug 23-09:22) mike: 71.50-70.50 support , 68.50 must hold or its another break down
(Aug 23-09:47) mike: 76 is trend supp, reversal in first 30-40 min likely
(Aug 23-09:56) mike: top in , nq leader

(Aug 23-10:04) mike: 1080.25 resist the top tick, nq weak... mkt reversal 20 minutes in... short side from here

(Aug 23-10:15) mike: The market gapped up on the open and the ES rejected 1078, dipped, then made one last push to the 1080.25 resistance which was top tick and reversed. A bounce is a shorting opportunity especially on the NQ. The 1071-1070 area should be tested and must hold or its more bad news for the bulls.

(Aug 23-10:19) mike: 75.75-76.50 resist
(Aug 23-10:28) mike: 1 min chart setup per e-book guide downside direction. 74.00-74.50 r now
(Aug 23-10:45) mike: 1068.50 is next and a break of that gets mkt in trouble again, a huge drop possible 1042-1040 over a few days
(Aug 23-10:53) mike: trend day going, 72.00-7250 should be exceeded / held now. 68 area very key

(Aug 23-11:03) mike: The action has been "trend down" so far to the 1069.00-1068.50 zone on the ES and could stay that way as long as 1071.50-1072.00 is not cleared and held.

(Aug 23-11:19) mike: 1071.50-1072.00 is not cleared and held
(Aug 23-11:23) mike: avoid longs , this could collapse any time
(Aug 23-11:26) mike: staying under friday's 1071.00-1071.50 late high area is bearish still, break of 1808 on NQ puts press on
(Aug 23-11:59) mike: 70.50 sold... mkt still vulnerable

(Aug 23-12:03) mike: The ES bounced from the 1067.25 low to 1071.00 and that 1071-1072 area is still a key resistance. The market will remain vulnerable unless that area is cleared and held on a pullback instead of being rejected again.

(Aug 23-12:23) mike: if 70.50 area breaks , 68 area should get retested
(Aug 23-12:38) mike: 72 resist held, 68 area supp must hold

(Aug 23-12:43) mike: The 1072 level was rejected, and a test of 1068 should be in the cards if that is not cleared/ held soon.

(Aug 23-13:00) mike: 68 coming and must hold or 61 area
(Aug 23-13:13) mike: nq leading lower again, 1813.50 pivotal there
(Aug 23-13:47) mike: all day rejection at 72 area, then shorts cover around 69 area... a break of the range should give a good move/

(Aug 23-13:54) mike: The 1068.50 level was reached and the market bounced but is still unable to clear 1072 and try to break out higher. The action as not been good so a break over 1072 needs to hold still or the market is still vulnerable.

(Aug 23-14:03) mike: pretty surprising this holding together, must be lots of shorts taking cover on dips. no damage done as long as 68.50 is broken and not quickly reversed. not out of trouble tho, a rally will fail as lots of trapped longs above too

(Aug 23-14:07) mike: 70.50 should hold

(Aug 23-14:22)mike: 72 needs to hold, or bounce high in place

(Aug 23-14:47) mike: dbl top , 71.50 supp now

(Aug 23-14:53) mike: The ES took out 1072 and moved up to 1074.00 before pulling back. As long as the 1071 level holds the market is ok, but if broken then a reversal can occur again.

(Aug 23-15:19) mike: 72.50 needs cleared or close is weak
(Aug 23-15:31) mike: 72.50 rejected. 68 key on close
(Aug 23-16:06) mike: a panic drop possible tomorrow, 1042-1040 still possible. be small short something
(Aug 23-16:06) mike: have a nice day

 

 

 

Friday- August 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 20-9:19) mike: 68.50-69..50 resist 1
(Aug 20-9:24) mike: option expiration. the 66.50 good supp
(Aug 20-9:52) mike: 67.50 resist
(Aug 20-9:57) mike: 67.50 resist, 1064.00-1063.25 now key supp
(Aug 20-10:08) mike: bounces still not sticking. a bounce here should fail again

(Aug 20-10:14) mike: The ES dropped to the 1064.00-1063.25 support and bounced back 5.25 points to 1069.50 before failing again. Short bounces still, the better the bounce, the better odds on a short for now.

(Aug 20-10:30) mike: need to clear 68 soon or roll over here
(Aug 20-10:35) mike: mkt acting odd, but is not falling apart unless 64 supp breaks and not quickly reversed
(Aug 20-11:03) mike: 69.00-69.50 the big hurdle to clear/ hold to get out of trouble this morning
(Aug 20-11:13) mike: the little sprint higher are reversed , sell those pop ups. or stay short, the lows should break
(Aug 20-11:49) mike: those pop,s are shorts, or stay short to 59-58 at least

(Aug 20-12:11) mike: The market has been steadily grinding lower to 1061.75 on the ES and 1809.50 on the NQ so far made at noon eastern time. The 1058.25-1057.75 area should be a key area, and must be reversed on a test and then have than a feeble bounce. The 1066.75-1167.50 area is key resistance on a bounce and should not be cleared/ held if the market is still weak.

(Aug 20-12:30) mike: if 64 can hold, a chance to go to towards 66.50 area - carful with longs tho, acting like could collapse

(Aug 20-13:01) mike: The market has an eerie "feel" to it, but for now the 1064.00-1063.50 area looks like key support. A move to 1066.75-1167.50 will need to stick, and not reverse, otherwise another vicious drop could be in the cards.

(Aug 20-13:09) mike: some rejection, 66.25-65.50 needs to break.
(Aug 20-13:15) mike: if 65.50 not held, 64 next, then new low

(Aug 20-13:22) mike: The ES reached 1067.00 and turned down. The market is in a stair step higher pattern right now and must stay over 1065.25 now or a reversal is underway.

(Aug 20-13:29) mike: a short under 67 es, 1820.50 nq
(Aug 20-13:32) mike: 1815 area on NQ key
(Aug 20-13:49) mike: should fail to get over 66.50 if weak
(Aug 20-13:57) mike: 67 area still key, a short unless exceeded/ held

(Aug 20-14:26) mike: The market is still working higher in a very slow stair step higher. The 1067 area on ES and 1821 area on the NQ now look key and needs to hold to keep the uptrend alive, and avoid a 3rd day in a row with a poor close.

(Aug 20-14:36) mike: the supp held n they took off right when update was sent. 67.50-67.00 need to hold now, 1824 nq
(Aug 20-14:44) mike: supp holding, its 68.25 now , 70.50-72.00 resist
(Aug 20-14:46) mike: 69 area supp 1 now, 66..50 is key

(Aug 20-14:54) mike: The market took off from the updated support right after sending the last update. There is good resistance at 1071.50-1072.50 that could be a top, but only if the 1069 support is broken now. If it is, 1066.50 is key on a drop.

(Aug 20-15:01) mike: be short up there, a pop up should fail.
(Aug 20-15:04) mike: another failure up here, and break of 1068 area , it would be ugly pattern

(Aug 20-15:17) mike: 123 top, stop 71.25
(Aug 20-15:17) mike: 69.50 cover part if short
(Aug 20-15:20) mike: stop in place at 71 , trail it, 68 area supp
(Aug 20-15:31) mike: back off shorts as long as 68.50 holds no damage done yet
(Aug 20-15:39) mike: ahh, its late but a test of 71.50-72.50 should be sold, 68.50-68.00 key end of day / week
(Aug 20-15:50) mike: have a great weekend / already cant wait for monday. take care

 

 

Thursday- August 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Aug 19-09:24) mike: 95 resist was high right before job number, 88 a bounce high here so far off 83.75, dbl bottom , bottom of range - if 83 area breaks , bulls lose the battle up here

(Aug 19-10:02) mike: the rest of the puts will be held to 1073 area
(Aug 19-10:10) mike: 83 is good resist, if 79 cleared held

(Aug 19-10:29) mike: The ES bounced to 1089.50 about 15 minutes into trading and dropped to 1075.00 before bouncing. Per last night's update the bounce didn't stick. If the 1073.00-1072.50 area is tested and reversed it could set up a scalp long, but better odds are with the trend down unless it shows signs of a turn around.

(Aug 19-10:41) mike: cover the other 1/2 of the puts/ short from tuesday
(Aug 19-10:43) mike: 1073.00-1072.50 area needs to hold now, or 66.60 area is next. 76 needs exceeded n held on dip to dent the downside momentum

(Aug 19-11:05) mike: short under 77
(Aug 19-11:06) mike: 68 at least if 72.50 breaks , nervous mkt

(Aug 19-11:25) mike: The ES bounced off of 1073.25 but it's feeble so far. A move over 1077-1078 that holds, not reverses, is needed to get out of trend down mode.

(Aug 19-11:40) mike: a trend down day, heavy mkt. 73.50-74.00 good resist, 77 is the key resist, 1068.25-1067.50 next

(Aug 19-11:50) mike: stay short under 74 , a bounce will fail
(Aug 19-11:53) mike: The 1068.25-1067.50 zone was tested, there is resistance at 1073.50-1074.00 for trend down resistance. The 1066.50 level is next, then 1062 area or lower if not held.

(Aug 19-11:57) mike: keep some short on , a drop to 1058 beginning to appear likely
(Aug 19-12:05) mike: sell under 71.50

(Aug 19-12:10) mike: they might be probing for a low. the best bounce was 6.50 ES points, 1075 would be symmetry, and thats the last break down area. that is upside potential. 71.50 is trend resist tho, must be cleared / held or still trend dn

(Aug 19-12:33) mike: 73 at a good resist, then 75 key , 72 needs to hold to keep up trend / a pop and pullback possible here

(Aug 19-12:45) mike: The bounce off of 1068.50 support reached 1073.50 and that be it for the bounce. If not and the 1075 area is cleared, and held on a dip, things could change and 1078.50-1079.00 would be next.

(Aug 19-12:53) mike: 72.50 resist should be sold if reached. 70.75 small supp
(Aug 19-12:54) mike: i'll do audio update in 5 min or so , fyi
(Aug 19-12:57) mike: 70.75 key supp now

(Aug 19-13:10) mike: 70.75 was minor dynamic supp, small area. but, key area still 75-76 area... audio on for a bit

audio...audio....audio....audio....audio....audio.....

(Aug 19-13:39) mike: audio off. choppy range. it takes break/ hold over 73.50-74.00 still to turn he tide. a short under that area still

(Aug 19-13:59) mike: 71.25-71.75 resist now

(Aug 19-14:15) mike: After the last update the ES rolled over from 1074 and dropped to test the low. A 123 / double bottom formed but still, the 1073.50-1074.00 area needs cleared and held to change things.

(Aug 19-14:24) mike: 74 rejected, they'll hold 72on pullback if there is another push higher coming
(Aug 19-14:37) mike: bounces have been 5.50-6.50 points, 3 of them now, per earlier, 75 is good resist
(Aug 19-14:41) mike: that should be it, 73.35-74.00 resist if so is rejected
(Aug 19-15:05) mike: dbl top at that 75 area, should be hard to get thru and a top if 71.25 broken
(Aug 19-15:13) mike: a scalp long if 72 tested and turns up/ otherwise beware of another reversal near 76 area
(Aug 19-15:21) mike: 76.00-75.50 need hold to keep going
(Aug 19-15:32) mike: 75.00 look pivotal. need to stick or 73 area gets a test . if 1 more run up, 1080.25-1081 strong resist, short it
(Aug 19-15:42) mike: 73 the key supp here. doesn't' look good
(Aug 19-15:54) mike: 73.00 held but 75 pivotal.

 

 

Wednesday- August 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 18-09:39) mike: 1088 ON ES, 1838 NQ NOW RESIST, puts bought yesterday cover 1/2 at 1085 basis ES

(Aug 18-10:13) mike: The flat open was sold and the ES dropped to 1083.75 testing yesterday's low and turned up. The bounce should be vulnerable unless that 1093 area is exceeded/ held.

(Aug 18-10:14) mike: 88.00-87.50 needs to hold, its key area /
(Aug 18-10:25) mike: lows should be tested/ broken . a bounce will fail
(Aug 18-10:34) mike: key here, 87.50-88.00 resist
(Aug 18-10:49) mike: 87.75 rejected, its it a congestion area here, need to stay under 88 to stay bearish
(Aug 18-10:54) mike: Tick extremes stopping upside and downside. bounce should fail here if going south
(Aug 18-11:01) mike: triangle type pattern. a breakout over 88 could give a run up towards high,
(Aug 18-11:06) mike: 90.25 high tested.. tick extreme. it should rest a few min then go for 9250-93.00 area

(Aug 18-11:15) mike: After the last update the ES rolled over from 1089.50 and dropped to 1084.50, and then bounce to and backed off from 1088 pivotal area to test the 1084.50 level. As long as 1088 is held the market is ok to rally towards 1093 area. If broken, then the 1085 area needs to hold to avoid trouble.

(Aug 18-11:21) mike: the mkt is easier to sell when bounces stall out. / 88 area held but dont think there is much upside, bids dry up around 80 on es , 1048-1849 nq

(Aug 18-11:36) mike: 88 really key now, the patterns are wedge-like and its the support/break line - need to get over 90 and hold here soon
(Aug 18-11:52) mike: 1092.75-1093.50 goof resist, a dip needs to hold 90 area to keep uptrends

(Aug 18-12:00) mike: The ES held 1088 and pushed to 1092.00 so far. The 1090 level needs to hold to keep the grind higher in gear. If broken, then 1088 may be tested and that must be defended to keep the rally alive.

(Aug 18-12:25) mike: a bit toppy, must get over 91 and not reverse
(Aug 18-12:33) mike: 91 not held, nq backing off 1854 resist, its getting tired
(Aug 18-12:36) mike: 123 top, bearish under 91.50
(Aug 18-12:48) mike: as long as 90 holds its in good shape , a pullback not withstanding

(Aug 18-12:57) mike: The 1090 level held on a dip, and the initial resistance was cleared, so as long as 1092 holds the trend up will continue. The 1095.50 is the next hurdle to clear/ hold.

(Aug 18-13:06) mike: i94 supp now, if 98 not rejected, 1102 area next

(Aug 18-13:18) mike: This move had some muscle as the 1098.00-1098.50 area is being tested. If cleared we can see 1102 area, but if 1094 is not held on a dip then things could be changing.

(Aug 18-13:21) mike: 96.00-95.50 really needs to hold or double top would be possible.
(Aug 18-13:38) mike: 94.50 supp must hold,
(Aug 18-13:41) mike: 95.50 here must hold now. toppy if not held, or 97 is rejected
(Aug 18-14:02) mike: that is it for now
(Aug 18-14:07) mike: The 1098.50 level was rejected and that should be it for the rally, short bounces under the highs for now to 1093-1092 area

(Aug 18-14:13) mike: 97.25 small resist
(Aug 18-14:28) mike: now the 95.50 is key supp,
(Aug 18-14:38) mike: 97 should be sold if tested,
(Aug 18-14:49) mike: 97 sold need to stay undr to press lower like yesterday. if exceeded n not reversed, then 1 last push towards 1102 possible
(Aug 18-15:02) mike: tough call but now looks ok as long as 95 holds , nq needs to get up over 1858
(Aug 18-15:07) mike: sell a pop
(Aug 18-15:27) mike: The ES reached 1092.50 and that is key end of day or 1088 is in the cards again.

(Aug 18-16:04) mike: 88 met. this is negative, a huge move is coming , 78 target, and 66.60 test possible
(Aug 18-16:05) mike: have a good day

 

 

 

Tuesday- August 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 17-09:16) mike: 1080 key on the pullback today. 1088.00 first good resist , 92-93 key

(Aug 17-09:23) mike: also, 84.50 on es, 1830 nq need to hold on pullback

(Aug 17-09:34) mike: 87.50-88.00 top

(Aug 17-09:41) mike: early strength sold, 80.75 supp 1

(Aug 17-10:02) mike: The gap up open reversed down from just under 1088.00 on ES and just over 1838.25 on the NQ and they dropped to 1083.25 and 1830.00 respectively before bouncing. Those lows will need to hold now, or a bounce after the break will be sold. The 1088 area on the ES is key today, if cleared then the 1092 area has a chance to be tested.

(Aug 17-10:12) mike: 123 type top, 86.25 good resist , shouldnt be exceeded / held

(Aug 17-10:52) mike: pullback due here, but
(Aug 17-10:52) mike: The ES held at 1083.50 on the pullback and turned back up. A move towards the 1091.50-1092.50 area is still possible as long as the 1086.00-1085.50 area holds on a pullback.

(Aug 17-11:03) mike: 88.50-88.00 supp now, 91.50-92.50 area key resist. 1 min setup trend guide

(Aug 17-11:13) mike: power up, this is parabolic, 91.25 now must hold
(Aug 17-11:19) mike: tick dropped hard , first since run up started. the Tick needs to stay around zero to -150 , or things changing.

(Aug 17-11:33) mike: 92.75 supp now, 1097-98 good resist above .

(Aug 17-11:41) mike: The market powered higher in trend up mode, cutting through the 1091.50-1092.50 area. That 1092.50 is now trend support and needs to hold to have a chance to push towards the 1097-1098 area. A lunch time pullback is likely first.

(Aug 17-11:46) mike: buying a few puts up here, 97-98 area possible but move losing steam,

(Aug 17-11:52) mike: intraday here, 94 now needs to hold or 92.50 area gets tested - for today, nothing bad happens unless 92.50 broken. if 94 holds , still could see 97-98 but needs to get going here

(Aug 17-12:17) mike: 92.50 area also has rising 20 ema on 5 min chart, if broken then the trend up action is over. Tick also finally broke zero line for first time since breakout over 87.50 , so should test and the action there is key

(Aug 17-12:25) mike: 94.00-94.25 resist

(Aug 17-12:30) mike: The market is acting tired as we get a lunch time pullback towards 1092.50 area on the ES. The NQ is leading lower and needs to get over 1853 or it and the market is vulnerable.

(Aug 17-12:40) mike: nq took out 1853. mkt still ok over 92.50 for now

(Aug 17-12:55) mike: right or wrong, the puts bought up here are being scratched / would need to see damage done or higher prices, 97-98 area is good resist, and there is still a gap at 1108.50 -- that will need outside influence to reach...

(Aug 17-13:14) mike: The pullback held just over 1092.50 on the ES and the NQ popped back over 1853 so trend up action continues. The 1097-1098 area would be next, and if the market gets wings then we could fill the gap at 1108.50 before the move ends. The 1092.50 area needs to hold for this to play out. If that's broken, then 1088-1087 is strong support now.

(Aug 17-13:16) mike: 97 met, still though mkt very strong, 94.50 should be solid support if tested now.
(Aug 17-13:22) mike: if you have been long from lower , get out of part in the resist zone,
(Aug 17-13:24) mike: 96.50-96.00 small supp needs to hold to keep pushing higher
(Aug 17-13:33) mike: 97.00 needs to hold on pullback now. 1101.50-1102.00, then 1108.50-1110.00 zone
(Aug 17-13:39) mike: nq small dbl top, watch 1861 for resist , need to blow thru that soon. ... TOPPY HERE
(Aug 17-13:43) mike: 97.00 NEEDS to hold still key up here
(Aug 17-13:54) mike: 95.50 reached, sell 97.00-97.50 , top in for today. nq a better short
(Aug 17-14:06) mike: 97.00 turned it back. now 95.50 and 10450 on DOW CASH now must hold or be quickly reversed

(Aug 17-14:28) mike: The ES reached 1098.50 before backing off and so far the 1095.50 morning high was tested and held. If that 1095.50 area is held, then a rally could last into the close. If broken and not quickly reversed, then 1093.00-1092.50 is still the key support. If the 1097.50 is exceeded and not quickly reversed, then 1101.50-1102.00 is next resistance to clear today.

(Aug 17-14:38) mike: 97.50 a lid now
(Aug 17-14:39) mike: 93.00-92.50 can be tested, 1088-87 is HUGE now on a close especially

(Aug 17-14:55) mike: ES rejected, NQ AT 1853-52, HAS BEEN PIVOTAL THIS AFTERNOON. sorry re caps,

(Aug 17-15:09) mike: 95.25-95.75 resist
(Aug 17-15:25) mike: 95.50 reaction. needs cleared/ held
(Aug 17-15:29) mike: 94.75 supp now , should hold to avoid rolling over
(Aug 17-15:34) mike: 98.75 rejected, 94.75 cracked, that should be it. a few put in order
(Aug 17-15:36) mike: vix plunged, puts should explode o a drop
(Aug 17-15:47) mike: a top up there, keep shorts to 88-87 area, thats now very key area.
(Aug 17-15:50) mike: have a great rest of the day

 

 

Monday- August 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 16-09:12) mike: 75.50-76.00 resist 1

(Aug 16-09:23) mike: they can bounce off supp, but to get out of trouble the 75.50-76.00 area needs cleared / held/ 1815 on nq

(Aug 16-09:44) mike: supp 71.00-70.50 on es , 1810-1809 on nq key supp

(Aug 16-10:08) mike: 71 was held, reversed. thats key supp now, should hold or mkt back in trouble. 76.50-77.50 resist, then 1179.25
(Aug 16-10:18) mike: 74.75 on es to keep trends up

(Aug 16-10:23) mike: The gap down open was reversed in the first 5 minutes and the oversold rally was in gear for a move to 1178.50 resistance so far. The 1075.50-1075.00 area is trend support, and needs to hold to stay in trend up mode. That shouldn't break, but if it does then 1171.00-1070.50 will be key again.

(Aug 16-10:39) mike: 1081.00-1082.50 resist. , 77.50 need hold now
(Aug 16-10:43) mike: 75.50 held by 1 tick, move stalling out so tht must hold

(Aug 16-10:49) mike: The ES held 1175.50 and reached 1079.50 so far in a grind higher. The move is losing momentum and a decent pullback should occur, the 1074.50 is key support now.

(Aug 16-11:00) mike: a 123 typ top possible. but 10300 on dow cash is pivotal supp. then 10250
(Aug 16-11:06) mike: 78.85 shouldn't be exceeded now ,if morning high in place as it looks, 74.50 is good supp must hold there

(Aug 16-11:20) mike: 77 pivotal. dow 10300 area. need to get back over and hold those or still vulnerable.
(Aug 16-11:24) mike: The 1074.50 level held by 2 ticks so far, but 1077 looks pivotal and must break/ hold that level to avoid more downside towards 1171 key area.

(Aug 16-11:27) mike: 77 rejected, a ''tell'' , nq 1826 key too

(Aug 16-11:35) mike: finally a good bid down there around 75.50-75.00 / not sure how much upside left, but mkt looking ok as long as that area holds.

(Aug 16-11:46) mike: The 1171.00 "pivot" was broken and held on a dip and run up test the high. The market is hanging in there, but upside looks very limited at the moment. A pullback needs to hold 1077 or break out over 1079 soon to keep upside intact. The 1075.00-1074.50 area is key and must hold if a drop gets steam.

(Aug 16-11:59) mike: they must push thru 79.50 and run... a break here of 77.50 w/o taking out 1179 is bearish

(Aug 16-12:06) mike: 80.75-81.25 should be tested if 78.50 hold

(Aug 16-12:26) mike: must push thru 79.50 soon, 1830 nq, or dbl top get momentum

(Aug 16-12:32) mike: 80.50-81.00 resist next key area. that should be sold into if going to reverse
(Aug 16-12:38) mike: 1087-88 area possible if this keeps on pushing higher, break/ hold 81 needed first here. just hold a 1.50-2.00 point dip
(Aug 16-12:40) mike: thats symmetry and furthest this goes... 81 a key resist to clear here early afternoon now
(Aug 16-12:46) mike: in another range, toppy at 80, a pullback needs to hold 78-77 area
(Aug 16-12:48) mike: if 80 not held this can unwind lower,
(Aug 16-12:49) mike: careful long up here for now

(Aug 16-12:56) mike: The 1077 level held and the ES ran up to 1080.50 (just under 1081 resistance) and is backing off. The NQ is leading, and nust get over 1831 area and stick to avoid a topping pattern.

(Aug 16-13:05) mike: toppy, 80 rejection and NQ weak. sell pops ups that stall out or reverse up there - 78-77 very key supp nw

(Aug 16-13:16) mike: 80.25 reversed...mkt struggling a bit but still ok tho as long as 78.50 defended on a dip again
(Aug 16-13:30) mike: 78.50 to 80.00 and back down. ... the nq is key , needs to get over 1829.50 here

(Aug 16-14:04) mike: The ES toyed with 1080 while the NQ failed just under 1931 and the market pulled back gain. If there is a bounce that stalls/ reverses near the highs it would be a shorting opportunity. If the 1077 area on the ES (and around 10300 on the Dow cash) is tested it needs to reverse up fast to avoid rolling over. A scalp long can set up if tested and reversed.

(Aug 16-14:50) mike: 17.75 good resist now,
(Aug 16-14:59) mike: The market broke lower and needs to get over 1075.50-1076.00 to avoid a poor close.
(Aug 16-15:51) mike: 78 rejected, key to get back over or downside not yet done
(Aug 16-16:02) mike: 78 key overnight. supp at 76.00 needs held . have a good day

 

 

 

Friday- August 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 13-09:45) mike: nq in bad shape, a bounce will fail
(Aug 13-09:50) mike: 1824 on nq is the key resist , 1080 es

(Aug 13-10:12) mike: stop just over r
(Aug 13-10:18) mike: 82.00-81.50 supp, 83.50 shouldnt be exceeded , a 123 pattern
(Aug 13-10:24) mike: cover 79.50 or better on part, 72.50 next supp

(Aug 13-10:31) mike: The lower open was bought and the ES ran up to 1084 resistance. A little 123 top started the drop to 1079.50 so far. The 1076.50 is next support, then the 1072 area if that is broken. IF 1084 is exceeded/ held then a squeeze towards 1088 possible but don't hold your breath.

(Aug 13-10:44) mike: inside yesterday last hour range. 82 needs cleared / held or still vulnerable

(Aug 13-10:59) mike: bottom of range there at 1078.00-1077.50 supp area. a push thru 77.50 , not quickly re versed, sends ES towards the 72.00-70.50

(Aug 13-11:09) mike: The ES dropped to 1077.75 which is the bottom of this trading range from Thursday's last hour. The NQ needs to get going and break/ hold 1824 there, or it will drag the market lower and through the bottom of the range. If that happens, then the 1072.00-1070.50 area will be next and that should be good support for a reversal.

(Aug 13-11:50) mike: trend dn still, 79 needs cleared, 1824 still key on nq

(Aug 13-12:03) mike: The ES reached 1076.25 and turned up. Those could be lows IF 1080 on the ES and 1824 on the NQ are exceeded. If the bounce fails around those areas, then another drop is in the cards. The 1072.00-1070.50 is the key support below.

(Aug 13-12:18) mike: that should be high
(Aug 13-12:18) mike: 79 is the key supp

(Aug 13-12:46) mike: key spot, es needs to stay over 79 .50 to stay bullish

(Aug 13-12:54) mike: The ES pushed up to 1081.75 so far and needs to stay over 1080 now to keep the uptrend intact. The 1084.50-1085.00 is still key, and if broken stops could squeeze this higher.

(Aug 13-13:11) mike: the dow cash double topped, this needs to stay over 81 now or bounce is over

(Aug 13-13:22) mike: 123 top pattern, 81 must quickly reverse

(Aug 13-13:33) mike: 81 held. a hold over 81 a must now... if 83 pushed thru we either reverse right away or it causes a run towards 88. just need to stay over 81 or rally will be over

(Aug 13-13:40) mike: 83.75 small resist
(Aug 13-13:45) mike: 82.25 needs to hold -- longs looking for exits near 84
(Aug 13-13:51) mike: 82.25 held. key now , then 81

(Aug 13-14:00) mike: up trends broken, a bounce will be sold , top in 83.75 minor resist for now
(Aug 13-14:03) mike: 82.25 resist

(Aug 13-14:34) mike: 80 needs to hold here end of day to avoid drop to bottom of range 77-76 area , 82.25 the resist

(Aug 13-14:53) mike: The 1083.75 was a high for today and 1082 was broken/ held so if 1079 isn't held then a drop towards 1077-1076 will need to hold to avoid going towards 1072.00-1070.50. The 1081 level needs cleared to turn the trend now.

(Aug 13-15:14) mike: 81 reached, rejected, a drop still possible, but as likely a chop into the close. enjoy your weekend

(Aug 13-15:48) mike: 76.50 needs to hold or go to 72 , 79 resist now, enjoy the w/e
(Aug 13-16:06) mike: if 72 is reached i invite y'all here for a cookout take care

 

 

Thursday- August 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Aug 12-09:09) mike: if you have updated RTG ebook or the Live course, the part on rising wedge patterns, this is what happens when broken on a daily time frame. 1068 supp 1, 1061, 1053 area next key areas. 1085 gap fill good resist

(Aug 12-10:03) mike: 76.50 must hold, or a reversal occurs, 80 resist, then 84.50-85.00

(Aug 12-10:15) mike: 78.75 needs to hold or topping out up here for decent pullback
(Aug 12-10:19) mike: topped, a bounce to 80-81 that is reversed is a good short.

(Aug 12-10:25) mike: 80.25 should be it, nq leading

(Aug 12-10:30) mike: The big gap down open was bought and the ES rallied 11 points to 1081.50 and stalled out. Those highs should be it for the bounce for now, the 1076 area needs to hold to avoid a test/ break of the lows. If there is a higher high made, then 1084.50-1085.00 is gap fill resistance.

(Aug 12-10:42) mike: that 77.00-76.50 supp also 10300 on Dow CASH , round numbers have been pivotal. oversold rally still in gear unless broken, not quickly reversed.

(Aug 12-11:02) mike: The 1076 area held and the market pushed through the early high and just missed 1084.50-1085.00 so far. If the 1081 area is not held, then a test of the 1076 area is possible and that will hold if the oversold bounce is going to continue.

(Aug 12-11:08) mike: this pattern is not good, if they can bounce a bit, then turn stall/reverse short

(Aug 12-11:18) mike: 82..50 shouldn't be cleared / held now , or nullifies the pattern

(Aug 12-11:26) mike: the NQ gap filled at 1837, and dropped leaving ES behind. the lower highs so far is the negative. and need to get thru it soon. if 79 is not held, then we get reversal.

(Aug 12-11:41) mike: gaps filled and dow cash a double top, that should be a good high - this pattern still is dangerous

(Aug 12-12:07) mike: 80 must hold or dn they go. nq filled its gap, looks more vulnerable

(Aug 12-12:25) mike: The ES made one last push to 1084.50, and the NQ also rejected its 1837 gap-fill area, and we have a small pullback so far. Since the rising wedge break yesterday, and follow through pressure into the open this morning, the ES was down 56 points in 2+ days. The market got oversold, and this is a relief rally.
If the 1084.50-1085.00 area doesn't top off this bounce, then a move up towards 1090.50-1092.00 area is possible. A break/ hold over 1083 is needed to get that move, otherwise this pullback needs to stay over 1080 or odds of a high being in place go up.

(Aug 12-13:07) mike: 84.50 small rejection, 83 needs to hold to have a shot at taking out the highs

(Aug 12-13:33) mike: they topped obviously twice at the 84.50 resist and 1080 is very key to hold now , NQ much weaker now

(Aug 12-13:54) mike: 76.50-76.00 first key supp down here

(Aug 12-13:57) mike: The ES went up and double topped at the 1084.50 resistance and rolled over. There is small support at 1076.50-1076.00.The 1081-1082 is a good resistance area now.

(Aug 12-14:06) mike: 80.75-81.50 should get turned down

(Aug 12-14:18) mike: resist missed by 1 tick. , 79.50 must hold or dn they go , audio on in about 5 minutes

audio... audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Aug 12-15:30) mike: audio off, 81.50 a key supp, need to stay over, or they fall into close/ its 132 on nq

(Aug 12-15:43) mike: 123 / dbl top, 76.50 the key supp, 82 resist will be sold

(Aug 12-15:55) mike: 82.50 es, 1832 on NQ, pivotal area end of day. have a good rest of the day

 

 

 

Wednesday- August 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 11-09:11) mike: big wedge breaking. my spreadsheet of internal gauges is ugly. sentiment shifted. there won't be a good underlying bid today !!
(Aug 11-09:19) mike: 1102.50-1103.50 initial resist now

(Aug 11-09:38) mike: 1088-87 should be tested if 98.50 not exceeded

(Aug 11-10:01) mike: 95 needs to hold

(Aug 11-10:16) mike: be short under 98
(Aug 11-10:17) mike: 88-87 should be seen
(Aug 11-10:19) mike: 96.50 resist

(Aug 11-10:28) mike: The market was vulnerable and gapped down on the open under the 1103.75-1103.00 major area and hasn't been able to bounce very much. The 1098.50 area needs cleared/ held to avoid more downside, 1088-1087 is a target / support.

(Aug 11-10:49) mike: stay with shorts to 88-87 area. / 94.50 area now resist, 98.00-98.50 the big hurdle. it could be a trend day

(Aug 11-10:56) mike: The move has been trend down so far, and unless there is a move over 1094.50 that holds, then that 1088-1087 area will still be in the cards.

(Aug 11-11:06) mike: 94 on es, 1850 nq is a key resist now
(Aug 11-11:09) mike: by the ebook  / course  the 1 min guide in play still here
(Aug 11-11:11) mike: on shorts, bid 88.50 to cover a part at least , 83 trend resist now
(Aug 11-11:15) mike: bounces are 1.50-2.00 pts on ES then drop, 91.50 trend resist now

(Aug 11-11:22) mike: target met, be sure lock in profits if short. 9100-91.50 resist

(Aug 11-11:49) mike: Dow cash still likes round numbers, 10400 is key supp now. if not defended then another 50 dow points lower. 92.50-93.00 good resist, still tend down unless cleared

(Aug 11-11:52) mike: The 1088 support was tested, and 10400 on Dow cash, and gave a bounce but unless 1093 area is exceeded/ held the trends are still down and lower prices likely.

(Aug 11-12:43) mike: pressure on under 89.50

(Aug 11-12:47) mike: gap days often trend days, my indicators were ugly, wedge on daily broke leading to this .. now intermediate term is down. a bounce from getting oversold possible from lower levels or a day or so, but bears in control for now

(Aug 11-13:06) mike: that low should stick, supp at 88.50-88.00 supp need hold

(Aug 11-13:25) mike: The ES turned up from 1086.75 and 10400 on the Dow cash was reversed and the first decent bounce all day occurred. Those could be lows, but unless the ES gets over 1091 and holds that on a dip, the bounces are likely going to fail and a low for the day could be made in the last 5 minutes of trading.

(Aug 11-13:44) mike: 89.00-88.50 small supp, must hold or they won't have a chance to get to/ thru 91 now

(Aug 11-13:54) mike: the 3rd test of DOW CASH 10400, 10350 WOULD BE NEXT

(Aug 11-14:14) mike: 91 rejected ,

(Aug 11-14:21) mike: i must leave soon. 91-92 resist, if exceeded held the big resist 1096.50-1098.00., 1103.00-1104.000 max... the key supp at 10400 area on Dow cash, 1088-87 es. bigger pic, things have changed. have a good rest of the day.

(Aug 11-14:43) mike: 91-92 good / key area and a short if they get up there again. a low in last 3 minutes still possible. sell bounce until proff of a turn take care.

 

 

Tuesday- August 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 10-09:28) mike: 1118 strong resist on a bounce

(Aug 10-09:47) mike: 1109.25-1108.50 must hold or 1104-1103 , 12.50 resist

(Aug 10-10:14) mike: The ES gapped down and dropped just a tick under the 1109.25-1108.50 zone and turned back up. The bounces are shorting opportunities when upside stalls out. The 1117.50-1118.50 should offer good resistance if they get that far.

(Aug 10-10:21) mike: 12.25-11.75 now key area,

(Aug 10-10:30) mike: 14 might be top here
(Aug 10-10:35) mike: 12.50-13.00 resist now, shouldn't clear / hold if going lower

(Aug 10-10:48) mike: 13.00 turned down. vulnerable unless cleared/ held here soon
(Aug 10-10:51) mike: 10.50-09.75 supp

(Aug 10-10:58) mike: Dow cash again making ts turns at the round numbers and 50's [10700 high yesterday, 10550 low this morn, bounce to 10600] right now its bearish under 10600 CASH Dow

(Aug 10-11:12) mike: The ES bounced to 1114.00 and then backed off to the 1110.50 level, as it has churned after the early drop to 1108.50 support. Watch the 1115.50-1116.50 for resistance. The market is vulnerable under that area. If that is cleared/ held then it could rally another 50 points before a high is in this morning.

(Aug 10-11:35) mike: mkt ok as long as 1113 holds, 10600 on dow cash , up to 16.00-16.50

(Aug 10-11:48) mike: stalled out, watch nq its leading here

(Aug 10-12:02) mike: stalled n rolled over, sell against the high
(Aug 10-12:07) mike: The ES made it to 1115.00 and turned down and that just missed the 1115.50-1116.50 area. However, the 1113 level on ES and 10600 on the Dow CASH are pivotal so those will be key

(Aug 10-12:41) mike: vulnerable here under 14

(Aug 10-12:57) mike: nq leading way down , this area must hold , 1113 es , dow 10600 , if broken then bounce after is good short
(Aug 10-12:58) mike: will do audio before Fed release

(Aug 10-13:17) mike: 13.00-13.50 god resist now, 1889-19 nq
(Aug 10-13:18) mike: audio off now. sell bounces

(Aug 10-13:44) mike: The ES made a little 123 top after reaching 1115 and the break of 1113 on ES and 10600 on Dow Cash brought in selling. The 1110.25 was a low earlier and is now all that's in the was of testing/ breaking the lows. After the Fed release the 1115.50-1116.50 area needs to be cleared to get out of trouble, and if broken 1117.50-1118.50 is key resistance. If 1115 is not exceeded and the lows break, then the 1104-1103 area could be seen.

(Aug 10-13:49) mike: 10600 on dow cash was touched , backed off.... that and 1113 pivotal still

(Aug 10-14:21) mike: 22 was the key supp coming into today. a test should reverse, that 17 area key supp now

(Aug 10-15:14) mike: like yesterday a 123 pattern , another top

(Aug 10-15:32) mike: 20.50 resist must be cleared

(Aug 10-15:48) mike: 19.00-18.50 supp , needs to hold to close ok.

(Aug 10-16:20) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Monday- August 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 09-09:24) mike: 1120 first supp
(Aug 09-09:28) mike: first decent dip a buy

(Aug 09-09:34) mike: 20.00-19.00 tgt
(Aug 09-09:36) mike: 1123.50-1124.00 need cleared / held but bounce will come later
(Aug 09-09:39) mike: 23 r
(Aug 09-09:41) mike: cover part at 20 or better

(Aug 09-09:47) mike: 21.00-21.50 resist

(Aug 09-09:56) mike: 20.50 r now

(Aug 09-10:05) mike: 30 minutes in to trading turn.20.50 resist rejected. 1118.00-1117.50 key supp early today.

(Aug 09-10:14) mike: The 1123.50-1124.00 initial resistance zone was sold on the open and then the ES dropped 6 points to 1118.00 before bouncing. Another reversal from up here would break the market down, so the 1118.00-1117.50 area will need to hold on another pullback to avoid trouble. The 1124 area is still a key area to finally break and hold to avoid more topping action.

(Aug 09-10:18) mike: 20.50-20.00 need hold to not roll over

(Aug 09-10:45) mike: ES needs to get over 21.50 and not reverse, 1910 on NQ, vulnerable mkt unless cleared/ held soon

(Aug 09-10:59) mike: the pullback s holding 20ema on 5 min chart, its trend supp and mkt stays afloat as long as its held. a 2 sided day and will likely stay that way

(Aug 09-11:06) mike: The 1118.00-1117.50 area held on the dip, but there is a lot of resistance above and a Fed day tomorrow. The bounce will be shorting opportunitie if there is another push higher that stalls/ reverses, and a long on a dip that holds 1119 area. if that is not held then the stair step higher is broken.

(Aug 09-11:09) mike: 21.25 supp now , need to stay over

(Aug 09-11:20) mike: if 22 holds , 24.25 possible, maybe more , 27.50-28.50

(Aug 09-11:32) mike: key up here , 1912-13 strong resist on nq and 24 area ES , need to stay over 22,25 now
(Aug 09-11:37) mike: irejected for just a min so far, its trend up still unless 22.50 broken
(Aug 09-11:42) mike: dbl top at resist , 23.25 needs hold now
(Aug 09-11:43) mike: or reversal possible up here ,

(Aug 09-11:53) mike: nq stopped right at 1912 resist, es at 24.50... it might be it for awhile / stop
(Aug 09-11:53) mike: just over 1912 for now
(Aug 09-11:55) mike: watch 1908.50-1908.00 small supp on nq, 1122.50 es

(Aug 09-12:04) mike: The 1124.50 level turned the market back, a dip needs to hold 1122.50-1122.00 to avoid a reversal.

(Aug 09-12:19) mike: 123 on nq
(Aug 09-12:22) mike: nyse Tick needs to spike down under -100 and keep going , it holds that 0 to -100 area on tred up days

(Aug 09-12:28) mike: this bounce shouldn't go far, 1119 is now a key supp, and movi ng up
(Aug 09-12:34) mike: 1910 on nq shouldnt be exceeded , mkt still not liking it up there at resist,

(Aug 09-13:16) mike: 22 held so no damage done yet. a snoozer. but will turn on audio in a bit.

(Aug 09-13:24) mike: more rejection. not buying
(Aug 09-13:26) mike: this could collapse back to 1103 if cant get over 1125 / reward risk not good

(Aug 09-13:34) mike: The 1122.00 level was held but the market is acting "scared" near 1123.50-1124.00 on ES and the market is vulnerable to drop back towards 1104-1103 is 1125 is not exceeded on this move up.

(Aug 09-13:42) mike: keep your hands in your pocket or sell a pop up that stalls /reverses near 24 or 1912 nq.

(Aug 09-13:48) mike: its Dow CASH 10680 that is the bottom of range and must stay over,, 22 on es, 1908 on nq. , 24.50 and Dow CASH 10702 top of range... tiny zone but those are the key areas now

(Aug 09-13:56) mike: i'll turn on audio for updates part of tomorrow , promise. right now i'm avoiding this , just a few scalps since the early move , Fed has mkt on hold most of the day, if 23.25 holds it should push higher

(Aug 09-14:19) mike: need to stay over 23.25 to get a push towards 25.00

(Aug 09-14:41) mike: must stay over 24 to keep upside going, 27.75-28.50 is key above

(Aug 09-14:47) mike: The 1122 level held stead as support and that key and must hold now. There is some support at 1124 but the 1127.50-1128.25 area is a key resistance that should be hard to get through. A reversal from there is possible, if no reversal then the 1138-1139 area could be in the cards tomorrow.

 

 

Friday- August 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 06-09:43) mike: 19.00-20.00 resist

(Aug 06-09:49) mike: resist rejected, 16.50 s 1

(Aug 06-09:54) mike: 17.00-16.50 needs to hold now

(Aug 06-10:06) mike: 20.50-21.00 the bull/ bear pivotal area. 1906-07 on nq. / short w/ stop just over
(Aug 06-10:08) mike: 18-17 supp must hold on this or top likely in

(Aug 06-10:13) mike: The ES opened down 11+ points and reversed in the first few minutes and rallied back to the 1120.50-1121.00 key area and backed off. That's key to clear, and if 1117 is broke/ held then a test of lows is possible.

(Aug 06-10:22) mike: if 17 holds , then its same as all week, with dips holding / a break and move away from the 1120.50 area should scurry ''long covering'' drop

(Aug 06-10:38) mike: need get over 18 and hold now

(Aug 06-10:44) mike: toppy and will get vix sell sigs. 1120 on cash is key on a close, would break wedge on daily chart. 1103 area key now if 08 breaks too

(Aug 06-10:55) mike: The 1120.50-1121.00 key area was a top and the break of 1117 sent longs heading for the exit as the market hit the skids again. The market looks to have an intermediate term top in place, so sell the bounces still. The 1103.50-103.00 area is next, and good resistance at the 1116 area if there is a decent bounce.

(Aug 06-11:01) mike: should see 1103.50 if 1109 not cleared/ held, the 1098=97 next key area if broken.

(Aug 06-11:07) mike: if you have been short or had puts, cover part down here and trail stop on rest , gap just missed filling by 1 tick so far. 1107 resist now

(Aug 06-11:24) mike: needs to stay over 1116 to avoid another drop. , 08.50-09.50 resist here
(Aug 06-11:29) mike: a re reentry at 1108.50-1109.50 resist, as far it should go if heading lower

(Aug 06-11:50) mike: 07.75 key now / 1110.75 next resist
(Aug 06-11:56) mike: thats it, 06,50 next

(Aug 06-12:02) mike: The ES went to the 1103.50-103.00 area and turned up, but the bounce just reversed from resistance around 1109. That and 1885 on NQ are good resistance now. There is small support at 1106.50, then a test/ break of the lows if not held.

(Aug 06-12:16) mike: 06.50 SUPP HELD 1, BUT A TREND DAY, 20EMA ON 5 MIN CHART AT 19.25 NOW, THAT WILL NOT BE EXCEEDED/ HELD IF GOING LOWER. oops not shouting

(Aug 06-12:20) mike: they reached n reversed the 1108.50-1109.50 re-shorting area. if short, stop at break/even 08.50 , shouldnt be seen if going lower
(Aug 06-12:22) mike: need to break 06.50 in next min or so here or be flat until another set up
(Aug 06-12:27) mike: 07.75 stop , 05.25 target / supp

(Aug 06-12:43) mike: a W type bottom , lows *may* be in. 1106 now a key supp , 1108 needs cleared/ held too

(Aug 06-12:57) mike: 1108 on es, 1884 nq the key areas to clear.

(Aug 06-13:08) mike: resist rejected still, watch 1878 on nq , if tested and reversed, it could avoid poor close

(Aug 06-13:19) mike: 1105.75 bottom of the cigar pattern, must hold here or more trouble

(Aug 06-13:47) mike: buy next dip, esp nq
(Aug 06-13:49) mike: 07 should hold , a scalp long if reversed , the next bounce will be sold

(Aug 06-13:56) mike: need to get over 1108.50 and hold, if long scalp out

(Aug 06-14:09) mike: a good bid at 1106.00-05.75 all afternoon. good offer at 1108.50-1109.00.. obviously a key area. a push to 1110-1111 possible if a breakout not quickly reversed

(Aug 06-14:22) mike: The ES has bounced between 1108.50 and 1105.75 all afternoon. If they run up, the move will be sold especially if a move to 1111-1112 is rejected. It was a very good morning and the afternoon is a toss up, keep it light if involved.

(Aug 06-14:36) mike: 1107.50 supp, if that breaks the mkt back in trouble

(Aug 06-14:57) mike: 15.50-1650 resist, its must stay over 1113 for now

(Aug 06-15:02) mike: 15.50 rejected, but 13 is key here , 1894-92 nq

(Aug 06-15:11) mike: 13 held so mkt still ok, just careful not much upside left

(Aug 06-15:46) mike: 1115 area supp now, 1118 good resist and a high ihigh it looks
(Aug 06-15:46) mike: have a good weekend

 

 

Thursday- August 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 05-09:23) mike: could bounce early but it will fail
(Aug 05-09:26) mike: 1113.00-1112.50 very key today

(Aug 05-09:35) mike: 1700-17.500 r 1

(Aug 05-09:53) mike: a pullback needs to hold 1119.50-1119.00 , 1122-23 resist

(Aug 05-10:03) mike: 19 must hold now

(Aug 05-10:10) mike: a short under 21 . 123 pattern
(Aug 05-10:14) mike: good resist up here, nq too, but now is still ok over 1119 supp
(Aug 05-10:18) mike: stalling at good resist, must quickly push higher, or back to test 17.50

(Aug 05-10:23) mike: as long as 19 holds no damage done. , watching for sign of reversal

(Aug 05-10:31) mike: The big down open reversed back up in the first 10 minutes and then the ES found support at 1119 on a pullback. This move is likely shorts covering in front of tomorrow's Employment report. A move towards 1123.50-1124.50 should fail if there is more pullback coming.

(Aug 05-10:35) mike: short up here, toppy still

(Aug 05-10:47) mike: a bounce will fail to make higher high

(Aug 05-10:53) mike: stay w/ shorts under the 22
(Aug 05-10:57) mike: nq leading this all day, lows must be reversed quickly, but break has occurred

(Aug 05-11:02) mike: The ES reached 1122.75 and reversed and a steady downtrend is in gear and now a top should be in place. The NQ is in poor shape, follow its lead. A bounce that stalls/ reverses back near the 1899-1902 on NQ is a short, the ES has resistance at 1120.50 now.

(Aug 05-11:10) mike: 19.00-19.50 resist now, 21 area max if broken
(Aug 05-11:16) mike: should fail in here if going back down
(Aug 05-11:18) mike: 18.25 supp must hold now

(Aug 05-11:26) mike: must get over 1120 soon or roll over

(Aug 05-11:34) mike: needs to clear/hold 1120, and hold 18.50, to not roll over. a dbl bottom of sorts on es, nq a different animal today, but top action

(Aug 05-11:38) mike: slinky pattern. bearish action. but test of 1116.50 or higher, winding tight for bigger move

(Aug 05-11:44) mike: a quick dip should hold 19.50 area, short covering will keep this from breaking

(Aug 05-11:52) mike: this is going to be a ragged 2 sided day, as it has been. a good high is building, but good buying/ shorts covering the 1116 area. a move up that stalls out are good shorts. a drop that reverses from 1116 area [reversal a must] a long

(Aug 05-11:59) mike: its a sell up there under 20.75, 60ema on 5 min and early congestion high area

(Aug 05-12:08) mike: cover at 19.50 or better if short up here, scalps
(Aug 05-12:09) mike: both sides rejected, a ping pong game, 19 need to reverse

(Aug 05-12:28) mike: 4 turns dn from 20.75 so far, 1902 nq
(Aug 05-12:29) mike: 1119 has been holing, if broken its could be sharp

(Aug 05-12:35) mike: 19 held again.... beware tho, that 21 is a key resist that can not be cleared either
(Aug 05-12:38) mike: The ES reached 1121.00 and NQ reached 1902 and backed off, however the 1119 level has been held/ reversed a number of times and a break of that needed to bust this lower.

(Aug 05-12:40) mike: don't force a trade just to trade. soon this will make its move. ,

(Aug 05-13:05) mike: could gather mo
(Aug 05-13:05) mike: 1118 s

(Aug 05-13:27) mike: 18 reversed. mkt ok unless broken. better day tomorrow

(Aug 05-13:52) mike: 21 kind of key here, 24 would be next if clears , a dip will hold /reverse 18 area if tested if they haven't topped. a good day to stand aside

(Aug 05-13:59) mike: The ES went to the 1118 support and turned right back up. The market still has a good bid so a pullback should not go far unless 1124 area is rejected again, or 1120 is broken / held. Tomorrow's Jobs data should make for a better trading day.

(Aug 05-14:10) mike: no stick again. , 20 needs to hold or top again / the 23.50-24.50 area is a short if it gets tested/ reversed. a drop back to 1118 must be reversed right away or things could change late day.

(Aug 05-14:29) mike: 20.50 now key , 10650 on dow cash

(Aug 05-15:07) mike: mkt is in good shape unless 20.75 broken. 1902.50 on nq
(Aug 05-15:12) mike: 1905 on nq needs to hold to keep this going
(Aug 05-15:18) mike: its late but 23.50-24.50 good resist. 22 is good supp, will hold if going out on a strong note
(Aug 05-15:27) mike: 22 needs to hold or drop to 20
(Aug 05-15:30) mike: 92.50 on nq key
(Aug 05-15:37) mike: have a great rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday - August 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 04-09:26) mike: they have had a hard time staying up there, 23-24 area key / the first good dip will be bought tho

(Aug 04-09:56) mike: nq 1905.50-1906.50 was rejected, es failed under 23-24 key area, / must stay over 1120 or reversal/ data top of hour here

(Aug 04-10:03) mike: 23-22 should / must hold hold
(Aug 04-10:08) mike: top in for now, short nq on a bounce
(Aug 04-10:16) mike: get short on any bounce, 1118 is huge now, nq better shrt
(Aug 04-10:20) mike: The market reversed sharply off of the econ data trapping longs, shorts are the side to be, a bounce would need to break/ hold over 1122 to change this.

(Aug 04-10:35) mike: 1120 is ky resist , slinky patterns bearish

(Aug 4-10:50) mike: The 1114.50-1113.75 key area could be key tested and must sling-shot higher if reached, otherwise an outside day after an inside day is bearish pattern / must clear hold 1120 here to change this

(Aug 04-11:03) mike: 1897 on nq old resist still in play, key like 1120 on es
(Aug 04-11:06) mike: if 18 holds they can run up to 20.50-22.00 possible

(Aug 04-11:20) mike: thats it for the bounce if 19.50-19.00 not held
(Aug 04-11:24) mike: The market is stair stepping higher but making a wedge in the process. The 1119.50-1119.00 area needs to hold to keep trends up and avoid a reversal.

(Aug 04-11:26) mike: follow nq lead. 1899 there now key supp
(Aug 04-11:29) mike: 1122 should be good resist,

(Aug 04-11:39) mike: must clear 22 or trouble
(Aug 04-11:42) mike: wedge about to break, need to stay over 20 at lowest
(Aug 04-11:45) mike: 20 held, thats key must stay over it. 10660 on Dow CASH also

(Aug 04-12:04) mike: a test of 22 should fail , if they get there and stall. toppty, 20 must hold or wedge break picks up steam

(Aug 04-12:11) mike: The 1120 area has been holding, but there is toppy action. The wedge is breaking, so if 1120 is broken the downside could gather steam. For now the market is a short on one more push higher that is rejected or stalls out around the 1122.50-1123.50 area, the 1127.75-1128.25 area should be maximum upside for this move.

(Aug 04-12:37) mike: 22.75 supp now/ key area now. 1127-1128 is the major area above. / still big trend up unless 1120 and 1899 broken. but careful chasing this up here 1127-1128 vey key.

(Aug 04-12:41) mike: thats it i looks, sell test bounce tht stalls w/ stop just over those highs
(Aug 04-12:45) mike: i need to be away for 30 min. audio after that then

(Aug 04-13:05) mike: The ES turned down after poking to 1124.00 the NQ may have made a double top, the Dow cash rejected the 10700 level this morning too. The 1021-1020 area is the key support, and if broken then odds of a top in place would go up.

(Aug 04-13:09) mike: the supp will break sell bounces

(Aug 04-13:17) mike: avoiding longs right now, a big wedge break, 21.50-22.00 area good resist if reached and move stalls out

(Aug 04-13:24) mike: thats it, audio on for a bit

(Aug 04-13:49) mike: The 1121-1120 area was broken but the market had a bounce to the break down area so far. It looks like there could be a test of 1122.50 but if that is reversed or not reached then another drop occurs.

(Aug 04-14:07) mike: the pop up not sticking at 23-25 band, but drops holding 1120-1119 . sell near that resist, buy that supp.
(Aug 04-14:14) mike: 22 needs to hold here to keep from reversing the 23-25 area again

(Aug 04-14:36) mike: 23 keeps getting sold. need to hold 21 area or a bad close
(Aug 04-14:57) mike: The market has been bought on the pullbacks but the ES is having a very hard time around the 1123.50-1124.00 area this afternoon. The 1121 area needs to be defended again or the trends will turn.

(Aug 04-15:16) mike: this can drop hard , or make a go for 1127-1128 , but spinning its wheels in narrow range at a high normally sets up reversals. 1122 now good supp should /must hold

(Aug 04-15:19) mike: 23.50-23.00 should hold now.

(Aug 04-15:24) mike: should still hold 24.00-23.75 to keep trend up

(Aug 04-15:34) mike: 24.50 key now, 1127-1128 could top this off
 

 

Tuesday - August 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 03-09:53) mike: if in swing short, cover 1113 area / stop break even
(Aug 03-09:54) mike: at worst
(Aug 03-09:57) mike: 17.50-18.00 resist/ econ data in 2 min
(Aug 03-10:02) mike: 17.50 was sold on the econ number, 1113.00-1112.50 key supp today

(Aug 03-10:20) mike: The market opened lower, bounced off of the 1118.00-1117.50 support, then turned back down and reached the 1113.00-1112.50 zone so far. That coincides with 10600 on the Dow cash, and is key support today. The 1117.70-1118.00 area now must be cleared and held to avoid another push lower.

(Aug 03-10:45) mike: stair step higher, 16.50 supp needs to hold

(Aug 03-10:56) mike: 18.50 need hold to grind higher , otherwise a little reversal occurs

(Aug 03-11:07) mike: if 18.50 is broken then 1117-1116 area is supp

(Aug 03-11:19) mike: key spot here, 18 is a transition area and must to hold.

(Aug 03-11:26) mike: top area, sell a test of high if stalls reverses

(Aug 03-11:34) mike: need a stall/ reversal here, / mkt ''ok'' over 18 still.
(Aug 03-11:35) mike: not a short unless 18 breaks, back to long side over that
(Aug 03-11:37) mike: must be away for 30 minutes. / will turn on audio this afternoon . 1120 supp now

(Aug 03-12:06) mike: The ES rallied to 1122.75 so far while the NQ reached 1897.50 and backed off. The market is acting like yesterday afternoon with the bids drying up around 1123-1124 area on ES and under 1900 on NQ and another failure up there or a break of 1118 turns the market down.

(Aug 03-12:15) mike: 18.50 holding, should bounce... a 123 top possible so beware if they pop back up. toppy NAZ

(Aug 03-12:26) mike: sell bounces, you'll get em back. 1115 is next supp
(Aug 03-12:29) mike: 18-19 good resist now

(Aug 03-12:59) mike: The 1118 level was broken but the market is stuck in a range. A test of the 1120 area that stalls/ reverses would set up a short. There is the risk of dropping to test the 1114-1113 zone if the market fails to stay over that area again on a run-up.

(Aug 03-13:04) mike: mkt tired, this little bounce will fail

(Aug 03-13:42) mike: the first good resist rgt here, nq had good buying at 1885 area, and 1888 pivotal area. they don't break down unless they go under those

(Aug 03-14:04) mike: watch 1888 on nq, damage done if broken. the upside is limited for sure.

(Aug 03-14:38) mike: The market is acting like its swimming in bubble gum, slow motion and not going anywhere very fast. The 1120 level was tested but the ES needs to get over that and hold, along with 1892 on the NQ, to avoid another drop.

(Aug 03-15:06) mike: 1117.50 on ES 10640 on dow cash, 1889 on nq all need to hold or reverse or mkt rolls over

(Aug 03-15:13) mike: early action was good, rally off 1113 supp... reversal was good move, ever since its one of those days where mkt cant put much of a move together. the 1117.50 and 10640 held, no damage done yet

(Aug 03-15:20) mike: be short on any bounce , broken 1120 top

(Aug 03-15:31) mike: 116.00 low at 1pm. 8.00-18.50 good resist, should be rejected if braking down.

(Aug 03-15:42) mike: mkt short term top, have a good rest off the day
 

 

Monday - August 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Aug 02-09:25) mike: 1112.00-1111.25 supp 1

(Aug 02-09:36) mike: 13.50 good r
(Aug 02-09:40) mike: they topped until top of hour report

(Aug 02-09:49) mike: 1110 was supp pre open, it must hold

(Aug 02-09:54) mike: ISM Index in 6 minutes, 13 pivotal it looks

(Aug 02-10:17) mike: big resist poked over, but still trend up unless 1116.00-1115.50 broken - 1121.50-1122.00 next resist

(Aug 02-10:23) mike: The market opened strong and has stayed that way so far. The next resistance is around 1122, but if the 1116.00-1115.50 new support area is broken then a high could be in place.

(Aug 02-10:28) mike: sell tight stop/
(Aug 02-10:29) mike: lost momentum, but now is ok over 1117.50-1117.00 / scratch out

(Aug 02-10:50) mike: if 17.50 not held, a top in for a bit

(Aug 02-11:01) mike: i'm short under 20
(Aug 02-11:04) mike: 17.50 looks key, 1115 test if broken, -- 19.50 needs to be rejected to turn dn
(Aug 02-11:08) mike: tht =should- be it now... need break of 17 area now

(Aug 02-11:17) mike: 1115 area is supp if 17.50 not defended. 19.50 has been a good resist all morn.

(Aug 02-11:23) mike: The market has been stuck in a narrow range for quite a while, and the ES needs to stay over the 1118-1117 zone to avoid a reversal.

(Aug 02-11:37) mike: 1122 resist per earlier still good resist, 1900 on nq. still, no damage done as long as 19 area holds/

(Aug 02-11:58) mike: 1120.00-1119.50 supp , need to stay over on dips to stay trend up , watch 1900 on nq for good resist

(Aug 02-12:06) mike: 123 top,thats it for bounce, sell a pop up that stalls/ reverses near 21

(Aug 02-12:14) mike: The ES made a 123 top just under 1122 resistance and backed off. If the 1119 area is not defended on a pullback (1896 on NQ), a top could be in short term. The 1122 area on ES and 1900 on NQ are key resistance to clear/ hold or the market is vulnerable up here.

(Aug 02-12:22) mike: nq not liking it up here

(Aug 02-12:54) mike: got test of 17.50, if broken 1115.00 supp, then 1113 is now a key area that needs to hold -- bigger trend supp. 1119.75-1120.25 resist on bounce

(Aug 02-13:02) mike: The pullback held the 1117.50 level on the ES, that must hold or the market could roll over and possibly test the 1113 area, which is as far as a pullback should go. Holding over 1120 is necessary to squeeze this higher.

(Aug 02-13:21) mike: decent bid off 1117.50 supp, but up here at 1120 it dries up. mkt ''safe'' as long as its held, if broken then this will be another top . if 1120 is held and upside gts going , 1128 possible yet on this leg up, the monthly upside bias stops tomorrow

(Aug 02-13:30) mike: sell 1119.50 or better . toppy

(Aug 02-13:40) mike: be flat, sling shot off supp
(Aug 02-13:41) mike: or look for a test of 18 to buy, if stall/reverse. its key obviously

(Aug 02-14:07) mike: they can not stay up there, but refuse to break too... if 20.50 exceeded, 1022 possible then reverse. if not exceeded soon, 1117 again for good test

(Aug 02-14:24) mike: Since the last update the ES dropped to 1118 then shot right back up. A double top was made, but the market has a good underlying bid for most of the day and as long as the 1118 area holds, no damage done. The bounces are having trouble sticking so if they do test the highs and stall/ reverse a short could set up.

(Aug 02-14:55) mike: 21.75-21.25 old high area now supp,

(Aug 02-15:06) mike: big resist 23-24, nq around 1900, 1128 max , sell strength up there / wing trade

(Aug 02-15:30) mike: strong mkt, 1128-1130 is possible still, but this is setting up for a sizable pullback starting last 15 minutes today or in morning. mkt is 'ok' until then as long as 21.50-21.00 is defended.

(Aug 02-15:42) mike: these dips bought all day, but nq rejected 1900-1902 5 times and set up for deeper pullback

(Aug 02-15:57) mike: if short hold small overnight / have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday July 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Jul 30-9:19 mike: 1081.00-1080.25 key supp today. 1092-93 key resist

(Jul 30-10:04) mike: resist here 95.50-960
(Jul 30-10:10) mike: sell up here
(Jul 30-10:10) mike: 92 supp
(Jul 30-10:12) mike: 93.50 needs to hold or morning top is in

(Jul 30-10:17) mike: 123 top
(Jul 30-10:18) mike: 92 area supp/ 1846-44 nq
(Jul 30-10:20) mike: cover part down here 93.3=5or better
(Jul 30-10:23) mike: 95.75 key resist now, must break/ hold or mkt still vulnerable.

(Jul 30-10:29) mike: The gap down open was reversed in the first 10 minutes and a rally to yesterday's closing ranges were tested and the market has backed off. The 1092 area is now support and if that is broken a high should be in for the morning. If the 1097.50-1098.50 area is tested and rejected then a reversal occurs.

(Jul 30-10:34) mike: 97.50 rejected, 95 should/ must hold now

(Jul 30-10:46) mike: watch dow 10500 here for resist... 98.25 supp, then 96.50-95.50

(Jul 30-10:59) mike: 97 area a transition area. if it breaks, the pattern looks dangerous .
(Jul 30-11:01) mike: top for now, 99 resist shouldnt be exceeded / held

(Jul 30-11:07) mike: The 1097.50 level was rejected on the first test, but held updated 1095 support and ran up to 1101.25 before a dip. The market looks ready to take a rest, but the 1097 area needs to hold. If broken and not quickly reversed, then the trends change. The pattern is dangerous looking, especially if 1097 is not defended.

(Jul 30-11:12) mike: a top
(Jul 30-11:18) mike: under 1100 mkt vulnerable
(Jul 30-11:19) mike: 97 should break here soon

(Jul 30-11:29) mike: 95 supp held , but 92.50 area is more important supp, 9700-8750 now resist

(Jul 30-11:37) mike: The 1097 level was broken and held on a small bounce. That area is pivotal as the market is bearish under it and bullish if the market holds above it. To avoid trouble 1097 needs cleared and held.

(Jul 30-11:49) mike: 97 rejected, shorts comfortable under 97
(Jul 30-11:51) mike: 94 needs to break. if short, tight stop. small here
(Jul 30-11:54) mike: a dip should hold 96.50 , tho not sure there is much more upside

(Jul 30-12:02) mike: another pop that iis not held could change things to the downside,

(Jul 30-12:13) mike: load up on a bounce you'll get em back
(Jul 30-12:16) mike: that should be it
(Jul 30-12:19) mike: hold off being aggressive. 93.50-92.50 supp on break of 95. 98 should not be exceeded.
(Jul 30-12:20) mike: 97 shouldnt be exceeded now

(Jul 30-12:44) mike: 95 supp has had a good bid this afternoon, mkt lost some momentum, but as long as that is defended and NQ keeps climbing dont fight the trend,

(Jul 30-13:12) mike: top, swing short entry on bounce
(Jul 30-13:22) mike: The bounce off 1095 reversed from 1098.00 and it should be a short down to the 1092.50 area or lower. The 1096.50 is good resistance now.

(Jul 30-13:31) mike: 1858 on nq a short, 95.50-96.00 es
(Jul 30-13:38) mike: stay w/ shorts 92.50 on part, to 10400 on dow cash
(Jul 30-13:40) mike: on remainder, stop 95.50 shouldn't be exceeded / held or trends would turn up

(Jul 30-14:00) mike: 10400 dow cash cut thru. 92.50-93.00 resist , 1088 area next supp

(Jul 30-14:24) mike: We got the washout to 1092.50 on the way to 1090.25 and the turn came right at 2pm. The 2 sided action has made for some good opportunities so far, so careful end of day as the end of month action could make another dive lower if 1098-1099 is not exceeded/ held. Have a great weekend!

(Jul 30-14:52) mike: "could make another dive lower if 1098-1099 is not exceeded/ held. " careful if long

 

 

Thursday July 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 29-09:47) mike: 1112.50-1113.00 top

(Jul 29-10:03) mike: 09.50 resist 1876-78 nq is weak

(Jul 29-10:13) mike: The updated resistance was cut through but the ES then reversed from the 1113.00 resistance and reversed in the first 10 minutes. The 1109.50-1110.00 area needs cleared to avoid another drop.

(Jul 29-10:29) mike: 04.00-03.50 a key supp, , then 98.50-97.50 --- 08.50 key resist
(Jul 29-10:33) mike: 03.75 reversed. it must hold or mkt in some trouble.

(Jul 29-10:42) mike: stay w/ shorts to 98.50-97.50 area. bounces not stick still

(Jul 29-10:59) mike: supp held, but careful if long , these bounces are being sold and 08 look like max upside
(Jul 29-11:06) mike: just be short under 07 , nq pushing lower
(Jul 29-11:07) mike: 98.5097.50 still should be tested

(Jul 29-11:13) mike: 10500 on dow cash is support in front of 1098.50-1087.50 on ES. resist at 03.50-04.50 now , max , if going lower

(Jul 29-11:22) mike: target met for swing trades, stay w/ shorts tho on a bounce , 1101 good resist now. 1093 major area below next

(Jul 29-11:25) mike: We got our drop to the 1098.50-1097.50 support/ target but the market is not out of trouble unless the 1101.50-1102.50 area is exceeded and held.

(Jul 29-11:28) mike: stay w/ shorts, if they bounce it will be sold
(Jul 29-11:29) mike: could see 93-92 area which is major area short term if we stay under 11099

(Jul 29-11:34) mike: 1093.50-1092.50 major. watch 1 min chart setup for guide its been perfect all the way down

(Jul 29-11:53) mike: slinky, 95.50 now key resist

(Jul 29-12:14) mike: The trend down move cut through all of the support except for the 1086.50-1085.50 zone on the ES. It will take a move over 1093.50 to get the market out of trouble. If that happens then the 1095.50-1096.50 area could be tested. A bottom could be in if that happens, and a pullback would then be a buying opportunity.

(Jul 29-12:28) mike: 93.50 area failed so far. its was panic-like selling early, now better contained. a decent snap back possible, so careful being too bearish, a test of lows or a higher low that reverses could give a readable bounce

(Jul 29-12:44) mike: to re phrase 1093.50-94.00 needs to break/ hold to get out of trouble. a reversal from 89 a scalp long / i'll stay w/ shorts under 93.50--94.00 for now

(Jul 29-12:56) mike: The ES popped to 1094 and reversed but made a 123 bottom at 1090 so that should be it for the downside. Look for a tradable bounce as long as 1092.00-1091.25 area can hold.

(Jul 29-13:06) mike: 93.50 supp now

(Jul 29-13:14) mike: should see 97.59-
(Jul 29-13:16) mike: 93.50 held, 94.00 dip low , 1 minute setup guide on uptrend , nq especially
(Jul 29-13:19) mike: 97.50-98.50 now resist

(Jul 29-13:34) mike: The move reached the 1097.50-1098.50 old support. That needs cleared/ held in order to tack on a few more points on the upside. The 1094.00-1093.50 area is now a key support.

(Jul 29-13:39) mike: good cluster of resist here. if exceeded they could run up towards 1103

(Jul 29-13:41) mike: 96.50 needs to hold now. audio for awhile

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 29-14:04) mike: audio off. 1096.50 now supp needs to stay over or trends can reverse

(Jul 29-14:28) mike: if 10450 on dow cash holds the mkt is trading range, if 97 holds 1102.50-1103.5 0 resit next

(Jul 29-14:46) mike: pretty close to 110250-1103.59 thats possible reversal area , 1100 must hold

(Jul 29-14:51) mike: 03.50 rejected, a strong move but careful long

(Jul 29-15:01) mike: The pullback held at 1094.75 and the rally made it to the updated 1102.50-1103.50 zone, and those should be highs for the bounce. The 1100 area needs to hold to avoid a pullback now.

There will not be an update tonight, but will update intraday tomorrow.

(Jul 29-15:20) mike: 1102.50 must hold or they will reverse
(Jul 29-15:24) mike: 1102.50 held but 1104 a lid, need to push thru
(Jul 29-15:29) mike: a short w/ tight stop if 1104 reversed

(Jul 29-15:36) mike: mkt can not hold gains around 10500 on dow. if es closes under 1100 its a weak mkt setting up/ have a great rest of the day
 

 

Wednesday July 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 28-09:22) mike: 1112.50-1113.00 was sold earlier this morn , 1107.50-1107.00 needs to hold

(Jul 28-10:11) mike: The ES opened at the 1108.00-1107.50 initial support and bounced 4 points to 1111.75 before turning back down. The market is not holding on the bounces and only a break/ hold over 1110 on the ES and 1893 on the NQ can keep this from being a decent down day.

(Jul 28-10:24) mike: 1105.00-1104.50 just minor, 98.50-97.50 is key

(Jul 28-11:01) mike: The ES dropped to 1103.50 and bounced back to the 1108 "last trapped" and unless 1108 is exceeded and held a test of the 1098.50-1097.50 zone id still possible. If 1108 is held, then 1113 is still the key resistance today.

(Jul 28-11:07) mike: that ''bounce to last trapped'' was by the book. / see http://www.tradestalker.com/1105/ later to see the setup. / NQ better short today

(Jul 28-11:32) mike: 07.00-08.00 obvious resist, 1882-1884 on nq. a short unless broken

(Jul 28-11:42) mike: scalp out part at 05.50 or better, 79 on nq a better short still

(Jul 28-12:04) mike: The ES popped up to 1107.50 and stalled/ reversed for a re-entry on the short side. A triangle pattern is forming, the NQ needs to hold its support at the 1876.50-1875.75 zone or a push towards 1098-1097 on ES should occur.

(Jul 28-12:48) mike: 07.50-08.00 still key area, old resist and 60ema on 5 min chart. nq is the lager, needs to stay over 1876.50 supp or it breaks down

(Jul 28-12:57) mike: 06.75 should hold now if going to break out to upside

(Jul 28-13:13) mike: The ES finally took out the 1107.25-1107.50 zone and that area now needs to hold on a pullback to avoid another top. The NQ is weaker and will lead the market lower if still weak, as bounces are not holding.

(Jul 28-13:22) mike: ugly acting mkt, avoiding longs , short the run ups they will not stick
(Jul 28-13:24) mike: i'll put on audio until beige book

(Jul 28-13:56) mike: watch nq 1876-1878 area. mkt in trouble unless that is exceeded/ held

(Jul 28-14:10) mike: back to 08 again... 06.75-06.50 must hold if low is,
(Jul 28-14:13) mike: 1876-1878 on nq sill must be cleared/ held to get out of trouble

(Jul 28-14:24) mike: 04.50-05.50 resist
(Jul 28-14:24) mike: 98.500-97.50 supp/ target

(Jul 28-14:38) mike: 05.50 should be key resist now

(Jul 28-14:42) mike: The NQ reversed from 1877 resistance before the Beige book release and then the market made new lows for the day. The 1105.50 area on the ES needs cleared/ held or 1098.50-1097.50 is still possible.

(Jul 28-14:47) mike: 1105.50 shouldnt be exceeded/ held now, stay shorts -- audio on for a bit

(Jul 28-15:02) mike: trend day action / 98.50-97.50 key and reversal possible if reached
(Jul 28-15:05) mike: a bounce would need to be more than the 2-3 point bounces we have had that stall out, selloff... trend down otherwise

(Jul 28-15:12) mike: 1107.75-1102.25 resist now

(Jul 28-15:24) mike: 1101.75-1102.25 rejected.

(Jul 28-15:34) mike: 1104.50-1105.50 a short, 1101.50-1101.00 supp now must hold

(Jul 28-15:46) mike: 10500 on dow cash , 1104 ES , need a close over to avoid more downside

(Jul 28-15:47) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday- July 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Jul 27-09:41) mike: 1117.00-1118.00 sell zone w tgt stop, 1115 supp needs hold or 1112-1111 testes

(Jul 27-09:54) mike: 15.50resist
(Jul 27-09:55) mike: 1112-1111 target / gap fill area
(Jul 27-09:57) mike: consumer confidence in 2 minutes

(Jul 27-10:11) mike: could bounce but dbl top at 1118 resist is a top for now

(Jul 27-10:15) mike: The ES made a double top at 1117.00-1118.00 and that looks like a top for now. Sell the bounces and beware that it will take a break/ hold under 1108 to turn the trends.

(Jul 27-10:21) mike: 12.00-13.25 resist now ,
(Jul 27-10:26) mike: 12.75 rejected, 1111 small supp

(Jul 27-10:35) mike: small wedge, test of 13 should fail
(Jul 27-10:39) mike: 13.00 rejected, must hold 1110 on dip here

(Jul 27-10:47) mike: 1113.00-1113.50 now key resist to get over and hold, or else highs in place

(Jul 27-10:54) mike: 1110 held... this is just above a transition zone. if 1109-1108 breaks vand
(Jul 27-10:56) mike: a break/hold under 1109 turns bigger trends , stay with shorts

(Jul 27-11:04) mike: 1108.50-1108.00 bounce, but no gusto, 10.00-10.50 resist

(Jul 27-11:12) mike: The ES dropped from 1118.00 resistance to 1109.50, and a bounce off of 1109.50 formed a small rising wedge and was turned back at the updated 1113 area. The ES stays in trend down mode unless 1110.00-1110.50 is exceeded and held on a pullback.

(Jul 27-11:18) mike: the move down has been a grind, per last nights update the upside should be tough, the vix could give sell sigs if this continues. if short from the 1117-1118 area, a keeper of part for a swing trade towards 1098-1097 area, possibly. first, the 1105.00-1104.50 was last hour low yesterday, key area as some shorts trapped there

(Jul 27-11:24) mike: 1108.50-1109.00 now resist

(Jul 27-11:43) mike: i'll be away for about an hour. the way this acts, a pullback needs to stay over 1108.50-1107.75 now . or get over 1110 and hold to avoid a deeper drop. 1113 resist if they run up thru 1110

(Jul 27-12:55) mike: just back. they did go test 1113 and reverse. its key resist, sell em on bounces a top in

(Jul 27-13:11) mike: The 1110.00-1110.50 area was exceeded but the updated resistance at 1113 turned the market back down. The market has given two-sided action so far, but per last night's update don't expect bounces to stick. A test of 1113 on the ES along with the 1888 area on the NQ should be sold if the market is going to stay weak.

(Jul 27-13:27) mike: 1110.00-1100
(Jul 27-13:27) mike: 10.00-10.50 now key resist

(Jul 27-13:51) mike: a rising W , good supp now at 09.00-08.50 at most should hold

(Jul 27-14:07) mike: no sticking to bounces. 1109.00 held so far but 1111, then 1113 area a big resist to clear , on a bounce

(Jul 27-14:18) mike: that should be a good low for now
(Jul 27-14:21) mike: 11.00-10.50 supp , range trade new supp, 13.50 resist

(Jul 27-14:42) mike: The ES dropped to 1107.00 and turned up and tested 1113 again. The 1109 level held on 4 tests and that 1109.00-1108.50 area needs to hold now to avoid a test/ break of the lows. IF 1113 is exceeded, then 1115.50-1116.00 would be next with 1118 as the key resistance now.

(Jul 27-15:13) mike: so far there has been 9 moves of 4 or more points on ES. its winding up to make a good sized move. the 1108 level needs to hold on a pullback or the higher lows would break.

(Jul 27-15:23) mike: IF 13.00-13.50 cleared they could get shorts covering n run this up towards 16 or so

(Jul 27-15:35) mike: 3rd failure at 1113 area, 1110.50 , 1108 at worst, must hold on the down side or breakdn

 

 

Monday- July 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 26-09:16) mike: 1102.50-1104.00on es, 1876.25-1878.50 key early. 98-97 a key supp

(Jul 26-10:12) mike: The ES poked to 1101.75 on the open, having come down from the 1102.50-1104.00 area pre-open, and pulled back to the updated 1098-1097 key support and launched higher on the home sales data. The 1106.75-1107.25 should be hard to break/ hold but if it can then the 1111.50-1112.50 is possible. The ES needs to hold over 1104-1103 to avoid reversing, and 1098-1097 is now a key support.

(Jul 26-10:16) mike: watch nq, stalling up here. 05 needs to hold on dip

(Jul 26-10:26) mike: nq rolled over , 1107.25 exceeded by 1 tick -- es supp at 1104.50, it rolls over if 06 not broken and held

(Jul 26-10:34) mike: 04.75-05.25 resist now

(Jul 26-10:47) mike: 1106.75-1107.25 rejected 3 times - if 1102.25 not defended , then a high should be in /

(Jul 26-10:59) mike: The ES rejected the 1106.75-1107.25 and pulled back and is holding the 1103 support. That must be defended to stay in bullish mode. If that area is broken, and then not able to bounce right back and get back over 1105 then a reversal could set-up. Otherwise, the market is still 'safe" as long as 1103 is held.

(Jul 26-11:15) mike: 1104 is now the trend support. no damage done unless broken

(Jul 26-11:21) mike: 1006.75-1106.25 spp now , need hold

(Jul 26-11:37) mike: 1111-1112 is a big resist and reversal area likely, if reached and move stalls out. but the 1108.75 there could be a high if 1106.75 can not hold . they need to stay over 11070-1106 area to stay trend up

(Jul 26-11:49) mike: need to stay over 1108 now or things are changing. 1111-1112 should be tested -if- that holds

(Jul 26-12:01) mike: 08 held, if broken short small on bounce w/ stop over high, rally about over
(Jul 26-12:07) mike: It has been trend up after testing 1103 and the 1109.50 level was a lid so far. This should be close to a high, but only if the 1108 area is broken. If that happens, or 1111-1112 is reversed, then things could be changing with a test of 1103 now key support.

(Jul 26-13:07) mike: The 1108 level was broken and 1106.75 old resistance was the pullback low. The market is slow and in narrow ranges and the NQ is not pulling its weight. If 1108.50 is not exceeded/ held then a drop towards the 1103 area is in the cards, and must hold to avoid a reversal day. If the VIX closes up, its a red flag for a reversal.

(Jul 26-13:12) mike: they have been springing right back. if no run up, its change time

(Jul 26-13:38) mike: slow w/ sporadic spurts both ways. selling the pops under 1109 a scalps , but damage not done unless/ until that 1107 is broken/ not quickly reversed,

(Jul 26-13:55) mike: they could still get to 1111-1112 , but its struggling. if we get there be on reversal alert.

(Jul 26-14:02) mike: 08-07 needs to hold now . thats been pivotal this afternoon. i'll turn on audio in about 5 min

(Jul 26-14:16) mike: The slow motion action could make a break any time. The ES hasn't been able to stay over 1109 so if they are vulnerable. If exceeded, then pop up to the 1111-1112 area is possible. If that is rejected could top off a move on the upside. The 1108-1107 area needs to be defended to avoid potential trouble, or a decent pullback anyway.

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 26-15:21) mike: es needs to hold 06.75-06.25 , 08 is pivotal resist

(Jul 26-15:26) mike: The ES took out 1108 and spilled to 1104.50 before turning up with 60 minutes left. Still have good resistance around 1111-1112, but 1108 is pivotal and needs to hold to keep the market from a late reversal.

(Jul 26-15:38) mike: 1108 held, if 09.50 is not rejected then here ,, then 1111-1112 possible - break of 08 goes to 1106.50 area.
(Jul 26-15:52) mike: 1111-1112 reached, they should stay over 1108 or something is wrong. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday- July 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Jul 23-09:22) mike: sell 90.50 area if reached and move stalls out
(Jul 23-09:27) mike: 1085.50-1085.00 key supp early , a break / hold is breaking down towards 81-80

(Jul 23-09:36) mike: must clear 87 and hold to get a rally going
(Jul 23-09:40) mike: 88.50 needs cleared / held

(Jul 23-09:57) mike: puts bought yesterday, cover them on drop towards 1082-1081 basis ES, 1092.25 shouldnt be exceeded/ held now

(Jul 23-10:12) mike: The ES turned up from just under the 1085.50-1085.00 zone on the ES and sprinted to 1091.25 resistance in 15 minutes, then reversed and dropped to 1084.00 low so far. This range within a range should hold around 1081-1080 if its to hold together. A move back to the 1091 area needs some gusto to avoid another drop.

(Jul 23-10:48) mike: pullback should hold 90 area
(Jul 23-10:52) mike: 93.50 needs cleared/ held or still in range... 90.00-89.50 supp

(Jul 23-10:58) mike: The move reversed from 1093.25, and the market has spent little time above that. The 1090.00-1089.50 area needs to hold or a breakout will have to wait another day.
(Jul 23-10:59) mike: a short under 92

(Jul 23-11:03) mike: 90.00-89.50 area, needs to hold, or a high in place .

(Jul 23-11:07) mike: mkt ok unless that 90.00-89.50 breaks. / need to step away a bit. another rejection of 93 area , then take out 90, thats all that breaks it lower,

(Jul 23-11:12) mike: short up here

(Jul 23-11:44) mike: stay w/ shorts / only a hold over 92-93 gets them out of trouble

(Jul 23-12:03) mike: The 1093-1094 area has been sold for a day and a half, failing at the top of this range. Buying has been coming in on pullbacks, so its ""safe" over 1088.50 but must hold over 1094 to get a breakout, not a fakeout.

(Jul 23-12:09) mike: range inside a range, but if not short use a pop up towards 92-93 to fizzle to sell

(Jul 23-12:28) mike: they didn't spend much time under 88.50-88.00, that is like 93-84 on top,
(Jul 23-12:32) mike: 1855 on nq is pivotal, stay with shorting bounces , toppy action

(Jul 23-12:45) mike: nq is toast, any bounce there a good short . 1838 supp there is stay under 1849
(Jul 23-12:50) mike: should break 84 and test 1081.00-1080.25 if 88.50-89.00 sold

(Jul 23-13:05) mike: After the last update a spike to the 1094.00-1094.50 resistance was reversed and a drop from 1094.75 to 1086.50 occurred in choppy trading. Look for short covering/ buying if the lows are broken and the 1081 area is reversed. The market soundly rejected the 1093-1094 area a number of times and is a short unless cleared / held on a dip.

(Jul 23-13:29) mike: breakout to 1097.50-1098.50 major zone, a drop to 93.50-92.50 should / must hold now

(Jul 23-13:35) mike: I mis read that for sure. The market has a good bid, but should pull back. The 1095 area should hold, or 1092.50 at worst, otherwise we have a fake-out. There should be good resistance at 1102-1103 if there is another push higher.

(Jul 23-13:54) mike: 96 supp needs to hold, a break of it goes towards 92, its key supp.

(Jul 23-14:09) mike: 98.50 now needs to hold to stay trend up.
(Jul 23-14:12) mike: if no bounce here they topped

(Jul 23-14:18) mike: this pattern is not good, a lower high that reverses could start pullback
(Jul 23-14:21) mike: short a ounce, 99 resist , high in if 95 not held

(Jul 23-14:30) mike: The 1096 level held and the ES tagged 1100.50 before reversing. The chart pattern is not good, and a a bounce from 1096-1095 is possible but if they make a run to test the high and reverse, it could be the end of the move. If 1096-95 is broken, the 1092.50 area needs to hold or a bigger reversal occurs.

(Jul 23-14:55) mike: slow / thin action, a double bottom at 96 support, mkt is still ok until broken. 1102.50-1104.00 hurdle up here

(Jul 23-15:03) mike: less momentum on each push. careful with longs

(Jul 23-15:14) mike: now a 123 , 1100 should not be cleared/ held

(Jul 23-15:20) mike: 96 still key supp, as is dow 10400. need to close up above those to stay away from trouble . if they break, then 92.50 area is good supp

(Jul 23-15:41) mike: be short something, adding puts
(Jul 23-15:42) mike: the will be a gift short if the highs tested, 92.50 s1

 

 

Thursday- July 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 22-09:15) mike: over 1068 by 10 points up here. a pullback should hold the 75-74 area or this 78.50-79.00 area can be a top

(Jul 22-09:45) mike: need to stay over 82.50-82.00

(Jul 22-09:58) mike: home sales data in 1 min
(Jul 22-10:05) mike: 92.50 resist , 87 supp ,

(Jul 22-10:14) mike: The big up open fed upon itself and they rallied strong to 1091.75 on the ES so far. There is good resistance at 1092 area to clear. The 1085 level should hold on a pullback, or another top will be in place.

(Jul 22-10:20) mike: 123 top on nq , needs to break over 1862,
(Jul 22-10:23) mike: nq needs to clear 1860 now, rolling over if not exceeded soon
(Jul 22-10:26) mike: slow move, mkt ok here still over 88 on es

(Jul 22-10:41) mike: 88.50-88.00 supp , need to stay over that , 10300 on dow cash. only a break/ hold of those turns trend / reversal .
(Jul 22-10:46) mike: 92.00-92.50 is a key resist, need to hold 90 now

(Jul 22-10:55) mike: steady grind higher, should hold 92 area now, 90.50 at worst. otherwise the trend up could be changing
(Jul 22-10:59) mike: thats it for upside , sell a pp to lower high that reverses

(Jul 22-11:04) mike: The ES reached 1093.50 and turned down, and the grind higher looks like it topped. If that area is tested and the move stalls/ reverses it is a good reward/ risk short with a tight stop. The 1088.50 area now key support.

(Jul 22-11:27) mike: its only a scalp short on a reversal near 93.. the mkt doesn't break unless 88.50 area is broken.

(Jul 22-11:34) mike: scalp out 91.25 or better on part , 93.25 should not be exceeded if rolling over.
(Jul 22-11:36) mike: trail stop on rest, 90 needs to hold ot top in

(Jul 22-11:47) mike: The ES popped up to 1093.25 and stalled/ reversed setting up a short and 1088.50 was tested, but unless 1090.50 is exceeded/ held there is more to go on the downside, 1082 area would be key.

(Jul 22-12:04) mike: if 89.50 exceeded then 90.50 -91.00 next resist, should fail there if a top is indeed in place
(Jul 22-12:06) mike: nq leading this, a better short

(Jul 22-12:21) mike: 90.50 rejected. thats a key area , shorts ok under that

(Jul 22-12:27) mike: that might have been a ''heads up'' tricky mkt , usually gets this way just before a big move. they would need to hold under 88 and dow cash 10300 to put pressure on, upside still has a slim chance if held into 1pm or so

(Jul 22-13:09) mike: mkt slow motion, but long as 1090, at lowest 1088.50 continues to hold no damage done. i just dont see much more upside, but if 93 double is cut thru then 98 area is still possible

(Jul 22-13:22) mike: will put on audio for a bit but not much to say . get long on pullback that holds 1091
(Jul 22-13:26) mike: key here/
(Jul 22-13:27) mike: if 91 not held we may have trouble

(Jul 22-13:39) mike: The ES turned up from 1087.25 and bounced to 1092.25 and stalled out. Cautious long up here as a decent drop could occur any time here under 1092.

audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 22-14:25) mike: audio off, 91.25 needs reversed or top in

(Jul 22-14:28) mike: The ES bounce to a slightly higher high and reversed. The 1091.25 level now must hold or a top will be in. A push towards 1097.50-1098.50 should be a short if the move stalls/ reverses.

(Jul 22-14:35) mike: 92 now must hold, buy some puts at 97.50-98.50 area if reached

(Jul 22-14:43) mike: if they test the high its a gift short now

(Jul 22-14:56) mike: they'd need to run up, then begin to reverse... similar to move from 14:26 to 14:30 move up or break that 90.50 and not quickly reverse again. thats now key supp

(Jul 22-15:15) mike: 90.50 held so far. if they go under and stay, then its goes from buy dip, to its pressure on
(Jul 22-15:22) mike: 92.50 need hold here

(Jul 22-15:30) mike: sellers on every bounce to 93.50-94.25/ key resist to sell now
(Jul 22-15:34) mike: longs nervous now, shorts on bounces
(Jul 22-15:36) mike: add to puts on any bounce now

(Jul 22-15:43) mike: 88.50-89.00 resist
(Jul 22-15:46) mike: 90.50 s short on a stall there

(Jul 22-15:58) mike: 91 should be it, have a nice rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- July 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 21-09:36) mike: 1st supp at 80.75 gap fill
(Jul 21-09:42) mike: 83.50-84.00 resist now
(Jul 21-09:57) mike: 80.00-80.75 resist
(Jul 21-10:06) mike: 80 needs cleared/ held to get out of trend down

(Jul 21-10:14) mike: 80.75 needs exceeded still, a pullback must hold around 79
(Jul 21-10:19) mike: that might be it for the bounce
(Jul 21-10:19) mike: 1840 on nq resist to clear

(Jul 21-10:27) mike: The ES opened and reversed the 1084.50-1085.00 area and dropped 8.75 points while the NQ dropped 31 points. The 1082varea on ES and 1840 on NQ are resistance and if not cleared then a break of the lows is likely.

(Jul 21-11:00) mike: nq tagged its 1840 resist and dropped off 5 nq pts so far. it needs to hold 1833 , or more pressure on
(Jul 21-11:10) mike: mkt needs to not break 1075 ES 10200 Dow cash, OR top likely in place

(Jul 21-11:39) mike: a 123 bottom, but this should fail near 78-79

(Jul 21-11:50) mike: After the last update the NQ tagged 1840 and the ES reached 1081.50 and the market dropped to the 1075.25-1074.75 zone before a bounce. That is key along with 10200 on the Dow cash. The market isn't acting very well, so resistance at 1078.50-1079.00 needs cleared to avoid a break.

(Jul 21-12:05) mike: a pullback should hold 78 to keep uptrend, nq leading this up. 81.50-82.00 resist on 1 more pop up. mkt is ''safe'' as long as the 75 area on ES and 10200 dow cash are defended. we could be range bound, a sprint that test highs should fail

(Jul 21-12:13) mike: if long off 78, tight stop , sprits stall and reverse

(Jul 21-12:33) mike: the sprints higher get sold soon as momentum dies. still is ok on dips unless 78 breaks

(Jul 21-12:47) mike: wedge break, sell a bounce to 80 or a bit higher tht reverses/ stalls

(Jul 21-12:56) mike: 80.25 reversed and if short take part off at 78.50 or better, 78 must break'
(Jul 21-12:58) mike: that ws quick, resist at 79 area, 81-82 now key resist
(Jul 21-13:03) mike: 79 tagged, key area now

(Jul 21-13:15) mike: The ES bounced back to 1081.25 again and backed off. If the ES can not get over 1079.50-1080.00 area and hold, then the downside could give way and see a drop towards the 1075-11074 key area

(Jul 21-13:23) mike: 79.75 was bounce high so far, need a break of 78 to get a push lower in gear
(Jul 21-13:31) mike: upside breakout, 79.50 area now supp

(Jul 21-13:55) mike: triple bottom at 78.00-77.50 area and turn up again, its a buying opportunity. if the highs 1085 area tested , beare of reversal
(Jul 21-13:59) mike: The ES reached 1079.75 and rolled over but the 1078.00-1077.50 area has turned to good support in this range. The market is ok unless 1078.00-1077.50 is broken, but upside appears limited so a sprint higher should fail.

(Jul 21-14:00) mike: 4th time wont hold
(Jul 21-14:04) mike: sell bounces under 80
(Jul 21-14:08) mike: i'll turn on audio. 78.50 good resist, shouldn't be exceeded,

audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 21-14:53) mike: The ES bounced to 1081.50 again before letting go on the down side. Not too interested in the long side with 1070 resistance, and 1075 as key. Unless 1070 is exceeded another 10 points towards 1060 or lower in in the cards.

(Jul 21-15:01) mike: 64.50-65.00 now supp

(Jul 21-15:12) mike: 65 resist [not supp] was tagged and is pivotal here end of day. as is dow10100

(Jul 21-15:24) mike: double bottom, but that 1068 on es and 1824 on nq were resist before breaking down, mkt not out of trouble unless cleared

(Jul 21-15:50) mike: unless 68 on es and 1820 nq exceeded, pressure still on. if cleared, a low can be made . have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Tuesday- July 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 20-09:58) mike: 57-56 should be tested

(Jul 20-10:07) mike: 57.50 needs cleared/ held

(Jul 20-10:24) mike: good resist 61.50-62.00
(Jul 20-10:25) mike: The lower open was reversed from just under the 1054.00-1053.50 zone and there was good buying down there. If 1061.50-1062.00 is rejected they can drop back towards 1057 which should hold if the low is in place.

(Jul 20-10:32) mike: 58 needs to hold. to keep stair step higher.

(Jul 20-10:43) mike: 1061.50-1062.00 rejected.
(Jul 20-10:48) mike: reversal if 1060.00-1059.50 broken. not quickly reversed up

(Jul 20-10:59) mike: 58.50 then 57.00 supp / 61.50-62.00 key resist now, 1801 on nq

(Jul 20-11:11) mike: a good underlying bid, 62.00-61.50 supp now , 64 area resist

(Jul 20-11:29) mike: The 1061.50-1062.00 area was rejected initially, but the dip held 1059.25 and 1062 was exceeded and held. That is now support on a pullback, and should hold or the trends will roll over. If the 1068.00-1068.50 zone is tested and the move stalls out, then a reversal could occur and top off this bounce.

(Jul 20-11:40) mike: top for now, must hold 61.50 area or 59 next

(Jul 20-11:56) mike: wedge broken , a bounce from here should set up 123 type top near 64 area if reached and reverses

(Jul 20-12:20) mike: the ES just missed 64 , but got 123 top and thats a good resist now , 58 area supp

(Jul 20-12:40) mike: A 2 sided day, toppy acting, 1060 needs to break / hold to turn this over

(Jul 20-13:03) mike: 62.50 now a good supp, -- dow cash has been marking turnes, 10400 top yest, 10000 low this morn, 10100 was bounce high this morn... thats to be watched for pullback possibility ,

(Jul 20-13:21) mike: market still well bid , a test of 63.00-62.50 should/ must hold
(Jul 20-13:32) mike: 65.50 should hold
(Jul 20-13:41) mike: stalling a bit but over 1066 its bullish still, mkt has good buying coming in careful trying to fade this
(Jul 20-13:44) mike: 68 is key now
(Jul 20-13:46) mike: key supp on a decent pullback is 1066 area, 10100 dow cash

(Jul 20-13:55) mike: The ES pushed thru the 1065 high and is on a run. As long as a pullback holds 1069.50 the sprint continues. The 1076.50-1077.00 in next resistance and if no reversal then 1082 is possible on this move.

(Jul 20-14:00) mike: 1 min chart on these momentum moves, 9 and 18 ema as trend s/r. 73.25 now needs to hold , then 71 a key supp now
(Jul 20-14:12) mike: that was a parabolic move up. if 75 is tested , needs to go right thru it and nt stall or a reversal possible

(Jul 20-14:24) mike: if 72.50 not cleared, the 69.50 in site

(Jul 20-14:41) mike: 123 top, 74 must be cleared/ held now

(Jul 20-15:00) mike: must hold 70.50 area to avoid reversal. but toppy acting, shorting area around 74-75 if a pop up there stalls
.
(Jul 20-15:14) mike: this could go for 1082.50-1084.00 , a dip to 74 area should hold now

(Jul 20-15:25) mike: at resist but still up as long as 74.50 holds

(Jul 20-15:44) mike: tht might be it, if they pop to 80 and reverse it, its a short. gap day turned trend day, the high could come with 5 min left if not already in. 76 now supp

(Jul 20-16:02) mike: watch 8250-8400 area for possible turn. good supp at 75 area which will be pivotal in morning. have a nice rest of the day

 

 

Monday- July 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 19-09:28) mike: sell early strength

(Jul 19-09:39) mike: high should be in

(Jul 19-09:45) mike: 1068.50-1069.00

(Jul 19-09:53) mike: 1818.50-1819.50 NQ
(Jul 19-09:55) mike: 67.50-67.00 supp is key now

(Jul 19-10:05) mike: The ES reached the 1068.50-1069.00 resistance zone and the NQ reached its 1818.50-1819.50 zone and a decent pullback started. Those should not be exceeded. If 1064.00-1063.50 is tested and reversed we could get another bounce. A break/ hold over resistance could give 1 more run towards 1072-1073 area.

(Jul 19-10:19) mike: 64.50-65.00 resist on ES, 1808-1810 nq

(Jul 19-10:23) mike: 10100 on dow cash target 2
(Jul 19-10:27) mike: 62.75-63.50 resist now

(Jul 19-10:32) mike: The ES cut right through 1064 on the way to the 1058.50-1057.50 initial support area. That 1064 area is good resistance now, and shouldn't be exceeded/ held to keep the market down.

(Jul 19-10:36) mike: from resist to supp, 62.75-63.00 looks pivotal
(Jul 19-10:41) mike: 3 tests of 58, will break as that area erodes after several tests
(Jul 19-10:49) mike: under 61.50-62.00 es, 1804 nq press on
(Jul 19-10:50) mike: 1054.00-1053.50 next supp

(Jul 19-11:00) mike: need to get over 59.50-60.50 now and hold on a dip , or still more downside
(Jul 19-11:09) mike: 60.50-5950 supp now on a dip here , needs to hold

(Jul 19-11:18) mike: 60.50 held, 6350-64.50 good resist

(Jul 19-11:25) mike: losing momentum at that resist, 62.50 needs to hold

(Jul 19-11:31) mike: 60.50 a key area now , building another wedge (per ebook)

(Jul 19-11:42) mike: The ES bounced off of 1057 to just under the 1064 resistance. The 1060 needs to hold or the lows could be tested. They would need to hold on a test or the 1054 area would be in the cards.

(Jul 19-12:05) mike: just under 64 is lot of resist on different methods, good cluster, nothing good happens unless cleared

(Jul 19-12:21) mike: The ES double topped just under 1064 resistance and the 1808-1809 area on the NQ but the ES has yet to break 1060 and 10100 again on Dow cash. If broken, then the market remains vulnerable and a test/ break of the lows possible. If 1064 is exceeded, then a pullback will be a buying opportunity.

(Jul 19-12:44) mike: 64 broken , now triple top at 1809 on nq is the key break out area
(Jul 19-12:48) mike: The ES took out 1064 so as long as 1062.50 holds on a dip we can get a test of the highs.
(Jul 19-12:52) mike: 64 now supp.
(Jul 19-12:54) mike: a drop to 65 need hold , toppy acting
(Jul 19-12:57) mike: a bounce to a lower high tht reverses is a short now

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 19-13:44) mike: pressure on under 1062.50

(Jul 19-14:16) mike: dip should hold 63 area, 1805 strong supp nq

(Jul 19-14:33) mike: 64 needs to hold now

(Jul 19-14:56) mike: highs tested, but dip to 68.00-67.50 bow supp/ need to hold or 65 tested

(Jul 19-15:02) mike: The ES held 1061 and ran up to test the early highs. As long as the 1066.50 area holds the market is still in decent shape and 1072 area is still possible on this move up.
(Jul 19-15:05) mike: small 123 top. 69.00 needs cleared
(Jul 19-15:07) mike: mkt ok as long as 67 is held ,
(Jul 19-15:09) mike: 1072.50-1073.50 is short term key area

(Jul 19-15:18) mike: mkt has had good last hours lately. the 69 area now supp, must hold or 1072 may not be reached

(Jul 19-15:25) mike: 69 resist again, 1818 nq.

(Jul 19-15:35) mike: 65.50 will need to hold. , or poor close for a change to 62.50 or so

(Jul 19-16:23) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday- July 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 16-09:18) mike: sell bounces ,89.00-90.50 if they get there is a gift

(Jul 16-09:38) mike: 1086 on es , 1850 nq good/ key resist early

(Jul 16-09:48) mike: mkt breaking down, a run up will be a gift short under 83.50-84.00

(Jul 16-10:03) mike: a bounce will not stick, 76 resist, then 79.50-80.50

(Jul 16-10:10) mike: The market was acting toppy, and now a top is confirmed. A bounce to the 1076-1077 area should fail, but if cleared then 1079-1080 is a good short. The 1065.50 level is next support.

(Jul 16-11:08) mike: 76 failed, test of lows if not exceeded/ held

(Jul 16-11:13) mike: The ES bounced to the 1076 resistance and turned back down. That level needs to be cleared and held now to take some pressure off.

(Jul 16-11:21) mike: 74 needs cleared now to dent downside momentum. 1067.00-1066.50 next key supp

(Jul 16-11:36) mike: last trapped at 72.50-73.00 now, trend day in gear unless 76 exceeded/ held

(Jul 16-11:48) mike: slinky type pattern (per ebook) , stay w/ shorts under 72.50-73.00 pivotal area

(Jul 16-12:00) mike: trend dow day , 66.50-64.25 band is a major supp

(Jul 16-12:12) mike: a move over 72.50-73.00 breaks trend action, , 69.00 need hold or back to the low
(Jul 16-12:16) mike: 66.50-64.25 area ky supp, , cover some short there

(Jul 16-12:39) mike: The 1066.50-1064.25 band is a key support that will need to hold to avoid a drop towards 1058 area. Above, the 1072.50-1073.00 zone looks pivotal, and needs to be cleared/ held to dent the downside momentum.

(Jul 16-12:56) mike: now 69 would need to be exceeded/ held on a pullback. the major supp holding, but action poor . stay w/ shorts unless that breakout occurs

(Jul 16-13:04) mike: if this steady grind continues, we could test 1062, then maybe even 1058.50-1057.50 area.

(Jul 16-13:16) mike: nq trying to hold this together wtch 1810-08 to reverse if going to bounce

(Jul 16-13:24) mike: just sell bounce until signs of life

(Jul 16-13:32) mike: nq did its reversal at 1809. thats key supp now
(Jul 16-13:34) mike: if they get down there again , nq is a buy

(Jul 16-13:46) mike: no reversal ,
(Jul 16-13:48) mike: if they pop up and stall again, load up, 1062 next and 1058 possibly

(Jul 16-14:20) mike: The trend down move is still in gear and if 1062 is broken then the 1058.50-1057.50 area will be seen before any rally attempt occurs. Stay with shorts under 1068-1069 for now.

(Jul 16-14:36) mike: downside losing momentum, if a move over 1067 then it could set up scalp long on pullback to higher low if it reverse up. but unless 67 broken, its still trend d day

(Jul 16-14:54) mike: 2.00-2.50 pt bounces after each lower low, need more than that ,

(Jul 16-15:08) mike: high was made on the opening 5 min, this drop could be stopped only by the closing bell today.
(Jul 16-15:11) mike: 58.50-57.50 may be a magnet ,, 64 resist now

(Jul 16-15:24) mike: if still short bid to cover 58.50 ahead / not so sure about holding over w/e
(Jul 16-15:26) mike: 62 now resist

(Jul 16-15:37) mike: 59.00 low, that's likely it for this leg down, 62.00-61.50 supp now, needs to hold or lows not in.
(Jul 16-15:38) mike: have a great weekend.
(Jul 16-15:42) mike: 62 held, key to end day. again, enjoy your w/e

 

 

Thursday- July 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 15-09:47) mike: this pattern on day session only is not good, 92 needs cleared and held

(Jul 15-10:05) mike: 86.75 resist a short, should see 1079.50-1078.50 at least

(Jul 15-10:13) mike: 1079.50-1078.50 must hold or 75 are next. take part profit if short , trail stp
(Jul 15-10:19) mike: 82.50-83.00 now good resist
(Jul 15-10:21) mike: The 1092.50 resistance was rejected on the open and from 1091.75 the ES dropped steadily to 1077 so far. The 1082.50-1083.00 area needs cleared and held on a pullback to interrupt the downside momentum. All bounces should fail today.

(Jul 15-10:33) mike: that 80 area key , slinky pattern (per e-book)

(Jul 15-10:44) mike: this is a feeble bounce , will fail under 83 area

(Jul 15-11:31) mike: the 83 rejected, but 81.75 area needs to break to roll over

(Jul 15-11:41) mike: 81.50 area the support, a dip needs to hold over that now, a push towards 85 area
(Jul 15-11:47) mike: The 1076.50-1076.25 key area held and the first bounce failed but the next pullback was bought and the 1083 area is tested. The 1081.50-1081.00 area must hold or another break down is occurring. Good resistance at 1085-1086 if 1083 is exceeded again.

(Jul 15-11:56) mike: i need to be away for a bit. 81.50 held, no damage done to uptrend , yet. its a short on pop tht fails if 81.50 breaks, - a bounce wont go far from here tho

(Jul 15-12:32) mike: if 80 break / hold, down to 76 again ,

(Jul 15-13:05) mike: i'm back now. if the little sprint higher to stall out 82.75-83.25 its a short. then / or buy if 79 .50 - 79 area tested/

(Jul 15-13:13) mike: audio in a few minutes / a short under 83.50-84.50 / tight stop
(Jul 15-13:15) mike: 60 ema and symmetry at that zone/ key area
(Jul 15-13:19) mike: wrong on that, 83.50-82.50 is good supp, a pullback that holds there should give another push higher

(Jul 15-13:27) mike: parabolic move , 85.50 supp, good resist 87.50-88.50

(Jul 15-13:36) mike: 84.50-83.35 needs to give a bounce, a pop back up a short

(Jul 15-13:48) mike: 84.50 a key supp now. a failure to get thru 86.75-87.00 sets up reversal pattern

(Jul 15-13:52) mike: 123 type top. that should be it for the upside for now
(Jul 15-14:04) mike: 84.50 a key / pivotal area now... 10300 dow cash. mkt ok over those for now. audio on for in few minutes
(Jul 15-14:09) mike: broken, a pop up is a short

(Jul 15-14:35) mike: The ES pulled back to 1079.50 after last update and rallied to the 1088.50 level so far. The 1083.50-1083.00 area is key, and must hold on a pullback to avoid a topping pattern.

(Jul 15-14:56) mike: 86.25 needs to hold now , 88.50-89.50 good resist but no reversal unless86 25 breaks

(Jul 15-15:00) mike: short under 88, a pop to 87 that stalls ideal, mkt toppy still
(Jul 15-15:04) mike: 1.50 point stop , 88.50 shouldn't be exceeded now - 83.50-83.00 good supp
(Jul 15-15:06) mike: scalp out 1/3, trail stop on rest

(Jul 15-15:15) mike: might have caught a top, or close, keeping part for swing trade, cover at 82 or better on day trd or/ and trail stop - 86 good resist now

(Jul 15-15:20) mike: 83.50 resist now\
(Jul 15-15:27) mike: 83.50 rejected, tighen stop
(Jul 15-15:29) mike: nq caught a good bid, ES has god resist at 96. supp 83 now.

(Jul 15-15:34) mike: they went up as fast as they went down. could come back down as fast if 88 rejected
(Jul 15-15:38) mike: 8550 supp, a buy if tested / reversed. the Google number after close moves this out of the range

(Jul 15-15:47) mike: 88 now supp, 94 resist have a good rest of day

 

 

Wednesday- July 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Jul 14-09:14) mike: this will be a short the bounces market today . FED Minutes at 2pm today

(Jul 14-09:41) mike: 89.50-90.50 resist , must clear and hold to get out of trouble
(Jul 14-09:45) mike: 1086.00-1085.50 needs to hold now, key supp. must hold

(Jul 14-09:56) mike: 89.50 still needs cleared/ held

(Jul 14-10:03) mike: 86.50 87.00 resist now
(Jul 14-10:08) mike: The ES bounced from the 1086.00-1085.50 support to 1089.50 then reversed. The 1089.50-1090.50 area needs to be cleared and held to get turned around and avoid more selling.

(Jul 14-10:24) mike: 88.50 needs to hold, 91 resist

(Jul 14-10:33) mike: the SOX [semi conductor index] at top of big range [SMH symbol], = 1853-54 NQ , a make or break there,

(Jul 14-10:43) mike: the highs at resist on leading NQ / SOX / should be key area, -- 1847 needs to break there to roll over

(Jul 14-10:52) mike: The market bounced off of the lows pretty well. The 1853-1864 area on the NQ is key hurdle. If not cleared/ held then a top could be in place. The 1088 area on the ES needs to hold or a reversal occurs.

(Jul 14-11:03) mike: 89.00-88.50 key supp now. no damage done yet, unless that breaks - a wedge would break if they go.
(Jul 14-11:07) mike: 91 need hold here if going higher towards 97.50-98.50
(Jul 14-11:12) mike: should be a top there now, if 89 breaks the mkt gets hit w/ selling

(Jul 14-11:21) mike: a dip of more than 3 points on ES breaks momentum.

(Jul 14-11:36) mike: The 1089 level held and the NQ blew thru 1853 and as long as the ES holds on a dip of 3 points or less the upside is in gear. If there is a 3 point drop, the symmetry and trends change and a bounce will be a short.

(Jul 14-11:41) mike: small short, tight stop
(Jul 14-11:44) mike: scratch out, no 3 point drop yet, no top pattern yet. 92.50 supp need to break

(Jul 14-12:02) mike: topped it looks, wedge breaks, and mre than 3 point drop, if 92.50 area breaks. a bounce would be a short

(Jul 14-12:15) mike: The ES stalled out at 1095.50 and has broken a wedge pattern. The 1092.50 level is support, but a bounce to a lower high that reverses is a good shorting opportunity.

(Jul 14-12:34) mike: a turdown from 95 or lower needed to reverse here / or wait for a 3 point pullback for proof

(Jul 14-12:41) mike: its kind of dead here, ready to roll over it looks, but will turn on audio in about 5 min.

(Jul 14-12:51) mike: short under 94.50 now

(Jul 14-12:57) mike: The ES bounced to 1094.50 and reversed. The Fed Minutes are released this afternoon, but sell bounces now as the market made 123 top patterns and broke more than 3 ES points.

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 14-13:04) mike: 92.50 resist if not listening to audio

(Jul 14-13:24) mike: 93.25 on es, 1857 nq should not be exceeded

(Jul 14-13:35) mike: audio off for now
(Jul 14-13:36) mike: 1856.50 is the resist now tht must be exceeded/ held

(Jul 14-13:42) mike: 88 next, nq is your leader
(Jul 14-13:47) mike: 91.75-92.00 resist on es, nq 1852.50-1853.59

(Jul 14-13:54) mike: if no bounce from 88, then the 1079.50-1078.50 is likely on this leg

(Jul 14-14:03) mike: 89.50 key now, 1848 nq -- 18ema on 1 min chart per ebook

(Jul 14-14:10) mike: The market has topped out, and a bounce at this juncture would be a gift. The 1090 area needs to be cleared/ held now to get out of trouble. If 1084 breaks we should see 1079.50-1078.50 before a reversal back up.

(Jul 14-14:17) mike: 85 is key. supp. trend resist at 87.50 now

(Jul 14-14:21) mike: 87.50 rejected. , only short covering holding it up. air pocket drop possible if 87.50 not cleared soon.
(Jul 14-14:24) mike: if short , 87.50 shouldnt be exceeded, trail stop, 79-78 area take some profits
(Jul 14-14:28) mike: audio on for a bit

(Jul 14-15:11) mike: 89.50-90.00 strong resist, nq 1851, test of 85.00-84.50 supp
(Jul 14-15:16) mike: a pop to a lower high near 88 that stalls/ reverses is a re short.

(Jul 14-15:24) mike: mkt acted toppy, now 86.50 is good supp to buy . 90 good resist, only a problem if that is not defended

(Jul 14-15:30) mike: 88.50-88.00 must hold here
(Jul 14-15:34) mike: sell 90 or better, nq 51 or better for a swig trade. puts are still fairly cheap

(Jul 14-15:41) mike: yet another wedge break. sell all bounces , a test of those highs not likely
(Jul 14-15:47) mike: 88.50-89.50 resist , have a great rest of your day.

 

 

Tuesday - July 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 13-09:42) mike: top, gap to fill
(Jul 13-09:47) mike: 87 good resist, 1830 on nq / key resist

(Jul 13-10:06) mike: 1090.25-1091.50 on ES, 1838.50-1840.25 NQ major areas. 87.50 now supp that must hold
(Jul 13-10:10) mike: reversal at resist, 88.00-7.50 must hld
(Jul 13-10:17) mike: 88 is a transition. if broken , a top in

(Jul 13-10:22) mike: The 1090.25-1091.50 zone on the ES and 1838.50-1840.25 on the NQ pre-open were sold. However, the 1088.00-1087.50 area is support and it must break to turn down. If it does 1084 is then key to hold.

(Jul 13-10:23) mike: 123 type

(Jul 13-10:30) mike: 87.00 1st supp
(Jul 13-10:33) mike: those could turn out to be short term tops , 88.50 now resist

(Jul 13-10:41) mike: 88 should be resist now , 1828 nq
(Jul 13-10:46) mike: The 1088 area on the ES and 1828 area on the NQ need to be cleared and held or a bigger drop is in the cards as the highs at resistance might be it for the upside short term.

(Jul 13-10:54) mike: if 87.50-87.00 holds on a dip, we can get 1 more pop up to test the high

(Jul 13-11:07) mike: 87 held, needs to stay over that or they roll over

(Jul 13-11:19) mike: dbl tops, sell tight stop

(Jul 13-11:27) mike: should turn down, but not a reversal unless 88 is broken.

(Jul 13-11:34) mike: buy pullback to 90 area if reached and move stalls out. its good supp. watch 1840 nq for pullback to start
(Jul 13-11:37) mike: 94.50 rst, thn up to 98.50-99.50

(Jul 13-11:52) mike: The 1088 level was cleared and held on a dip and ran to 1094.00. The trends are very extended, and this can reverse at any time. But trends are up and as long as 1090 is not broken. If they don't fail again near 1094.50, the market can remain strong enough to test the 1098 area before this ends. If 1090 breaks, then a bounce that follows would set up a short.

(Jul 13-12:04) mike: 90 held but sell pop
(Jul 13-12:04) mike: 92 good resist

(Jul 13-12:19) mike: 90.50 holding , 1836 on nq -- needs to break to turn down
(Jul 13-12:22) mike: bought a few puts up here,
(Jul 13-12:24) mike: a break / hold of 1090 and 1835 on nq needed to put pressure on. 92.50-93.00 good resist now

(Jul 13-12:32) mike: if top in place, a 123 reversal possible up here, but
(Jul 13-12:32) mike: trend-up day going unless 90.50 is broken.

(Jul 13-12:41) mike: i'l small short up here fyi-
(Jul 13-12:41) mike: The 1090.50 level held as did 1835 on the NQ, and now a break of those would put pressure on. We have lower high in place, so IF 1094 is exceeded then the 1098 area would be next and likely finish this leg up.

(Jul 13-12:51) mike: that was another 123 top, as in my ebook. have been good scalps , 90.50 held but should break soon

(Jul 13-13:04) mike: tone has changed... if long sell when you can, not when you have to. top of some magnitude close at hand , break 90.50 and not quickly reverse puts pressure on. if they have 1 more sprint towards 98 area, thats the upside potential as i see it

(Jul 13-13:15) mike: 87.50-86.75 minor supp
(Jul 13-13:17) mike: 90.50 resist now. -1837 area on nq
(Jul 13-13:20) mike: The ES made 3 lower highs and finally broke the 1090.50 area. The highs could be big on the short term. Short bounces as things are changing today.

(Jul 13-13:26) mike: 1836 a good short on nq on a bounce that stalls out, it can gather steam

(Jul 13-13:36) mike: 90.50 rejected. key areas. need to get over and stay over to avoid more downside

(Jul 13-13:46) mike: 88 area should break and go to 86-ish as long as 90.50 is not held. nq 1837.50 the equivalent level

(Jul 13-14:22) mike: if 90 area tested , need quick reversal up,

(Jul 13-14:36) mike: 91.00-90.50 good supp now

(Jul 13-14:53) mike: After the last update the ES bounced to 1090.75 before dropping back to 1088 and that area was bought. The upside from here should be limited, but no reversal unless 1091 on ES and 1841 on the NQ are broken soon.

(Jul 13-15:01) mike: 92.25-92.00 now supp
(Jul 13-15:09) mike: dbl top, so drop to 92.50 likely first

(Jul 13-15:16) mike: 97.50-98.50 is the next good resist. 1852-54 area on NQ thats the max before a good sized drop/ 93.00-92.50 supp needs to hold

(Jul 13-15:25) mike: sell at 93.50-94.00 zone , bid are evaporating at 94 and above

(Jul 13-15:31) mike: get out at 93.25 or better
(Jul 13-15:32) mike: will await proof before going against trend - but feels top heavy

(Jul 13-15:37) mike: 92.50 now a key area. the last 30 minutes has been bullish so no harm done unless 92.50 area broken.

(Jul 13-15:50) mike: should yet test 97.50-98.50 area. if not, and 92.50 is broken, it will no doubt give a bunch of sell sigs. watch vix, if it goes over 24 it gives 5 outta 5 sell sigs -- thus my caution up here

(Jul 13-15:59) mike: thats why, mkt is on shaky ground. i will do audio update tomorrow some. have a great rest of the day.
 

 

Monday - July 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 12-09:17) mike: 72 as high right after globex open last night

(Jul 12-09:48) mike: 73.50 now supp, needs to hold or a reversal occurs . 1078.50-1079.50 strong resist
(Jul 12-09:52) mike: top in , a test of 1076 -77 that reverses is a short

(Jul 12-10:04) mike: 123 top, stop at 77 on shorts -- 73.50 area needs to hold or a reversal of trends to down
(Jul 12-10:05) mike: take part off, trail stop

(Jul 12-10:10) mike: 73-72 small supp
(Jul 12-10:14) mike: 75 would need to be cleared/ held to avoid drop thru 72 area
(Jul 12-10:16) mike: that 73.50 is key to hold here too, 1820 on nq

(Jul 12-10:20) mike: The lower open was reversed and the ES ran up to 1077.25 and then made a 123 top and pulled back. The 1073.50-1073.00 area needs to hold or the market will roll over. The high should be in, be if exceeded then 1078.50-1079.50 will be a reversal area.

(Jul 12-10:25) mike: a top should be in, use strength to sell in to. 73.50-74.50 resist now

(Jul 12-10:31) mike: 73.50-74.00 is key/ pivotal area now ,

(Jul 12-10:43) mike: still under pressure under 73.50-74.00 , test / break of lows

(Jul 12-10:55) mike: The 1073.50 area was broken and held on a bounce, and must now be exceeded and held to avoid more downside. The 1065.00-1064.25 area will be strong support and must hold or we have a bigger reversal going on.

(Jul 12-10:58) mike: test of low, bounce should fail under 72 , or little run up possible
(Jul 12-11:00) mike: if still partial short from 76-77 area, 72.25 shouldn't be exceeded now trail
(Jul 12-11:03) mike: 69.75-70.50 resist now
(Jul 12-11:06) mike: if you bought puts on friday, take part off down near 67 or better basis ES

(Jul 12-11:15) mike: 69.50-70.50 resist now

(Jul 12-11:23) mike: need 68 to hold, turn up thru 69.50 resist if going to avoid 1065.00-1064.25 key supp for today

(Jul 12-11:38) mike: 70.50 should be it for bounce

(Jul 12-11:50) mike: nq is leading the way. keep an eye on it too

(Jul 12-12:02) mike: a breakout over 70.50, upside could see 73.50-74.00 again if 70.50 holds

(Jul 12-12:13) mike: 73.50-74.00 met. 72 now supp that needs to hold

(Jul 12-12:35) mike: The ES fell to 1066.50 before turning back up. However, the move stopped at 1073.50 and that is a key resistance now. The 1070.50 area needs to hold or a test of the lows could be in the cards. IF the 1073.50 area is exceeded and held then 1077-1078 is major short term resistance now.

(Jul 12-12:48) mike: tick reached +1000 at the 74.50 and ought to be a top
(Jul 12-12:52) mike: in a bit i will do audio update, no stick on bounces per last nights update. eye on nq at 1812-1811 , that needs to hold

(Jul 12-13:01) mike: wedge break, bounce to 72 area a sell


audio...audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 12-13:17) mike: back to chat box (had some audio problems)   72 broken/ held. it's now good supp

(Jul 12-13:24) mike: After the last update the ES popped up to 1074.50, stalled and reversed and tested the 1070.50 break-out area from earlier. As long as that 1070.50-1070.00 area is not broken, no damage done. The upside has not been holding either and just backed off 1074.50 again. So a pop over 1075 must hold or another drop should occur.

(Jul 12-13:31) mike: that 73.25 needs to be defended or a dbl top confirmed / triggered

(Jul 12-13:47) mike: 75 rejected, another wedge could break, a bounce to lower high that reverses is another 123 type of top. the 72.50-72.00 is support to hold to avoid breaking down

(Jul 12-13:58) mike: 74.50 supp now should/ must hold here, if broken a high in place for test of 72

(Jul 12-14:04) mike: lost steam , must clear 75.50 very soon or a quick drop can happen

(Jul 12-14:11) mike: as soon s i hit send they drop10200 on Dow cash needs to hold or wedge breaks , stair step higher, need to clear 75.50 or mkt is topped.

(Jul 12-14:19) mike: The ES popped over 1075 and then reversed. The market has stair stepped higher so 1075.50 level needs to be cleared to avoid another drop. A wedge is formed and Dow cash 10200 needs to hold to keep from a reversal. be short on a bounce

(Jul 12-14:25) mike: turning audio on for a bit if having trouble, refresh your page and follow instructions below.

(Jul 12-14:58) mike: a 123 type top, but no damage done unless 72 area broken/ held. in a range, this acts like a short at 75, buy
(Jul 12-15:00) mike: audio off for the day. under 75 its vulnerable today
(Jul 12-15:05) mike: trapped between 72 and 75. sell up there, mkt out of gas

(Jul 12-15:18) mike: chop in front of earnings reports / buy the 72 area, sell 75 area. or avoid until tomorrow. if 75 exceeded, 78.50-79.50 key area -- 70.50 70.00 on bottom

(Jul 12-15:30) mike: i'm sorry but we had issues w/ the audio today. we'll get it worked out and ok to go on wednesday. again, my apologies.

 

 

Friday - July 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 09-09:42) mike: 68.50 rejected

(Jul 09-09:52) mike: nq topped at resist also

(Jul 09-10:06) mike: 68 needs to hold
(Jul 09-10:10) mike: a test of the high or token higher high, its a load the boat short

(Jul 09-10:21) mike: nq is the key, it must get over 1803 and not reverse again

(Jul 09-10:29) mike: The ES pulled back from 1068.25 resistance to 1065.00 and turned back up. The 1071.75-1072.50 area needs cleared or the market will get hit with a drop back towards 1066.50 or lower.

(Jul 09-10:32) mike: 68.50 needs to hold.

(Jul 09-10:47) mike: 1071.75-1072.50 must be cleared / held... it will be a top if 68.50 is broken

(Jul 09-10:53) mike: they topped at resist, pullback due, a pop to 70.50-71.50 area that reverses is a short.
(Jul 09-10:56) mike: be short under 72 , puts cheap,
(Jul 09-10:59) mike: The The 1071.75 level topped the move so far. If they bounce back and test the highs, its a good short. If 1066.50 is broken, downside could gather steam.

(Jul 09-11:13) mike: 6850-69.00 now resist to sell
(Jul 09-11:14) mike: 65 supp/ target 1

(Jul 09-11:27) mike: pressure on, nq is heavy and leader

(Jul 09-11:51) mike: the bounces don't have much gusto and are sold after a 1-2 minute stall - i'm selling pops, leaving longs alone unless obvious good setup

(Jul 09-11:59) mike: thats it. if nq pops up near 1802-03 and stalls, a good short

(Jul 09-12:17) mike: those should be tops at 69.25 and 1804 -- to avoid trouble they need to be cleared

(Jul 09-12:21) mike: 67 area is low end of this range, a break/ hold under needed to turn mkt down -- need a clean breakout either side to get anything going

(Jul 09-12:34) mike: staying short under 1805 nq, 70 es
(Jul 09-12:36) mike: must stay over 1800 nq, 67 es or fast dn
(Jul 09-12:40) mike: pop back, but acts like it can let go on side

(Jul 09-13:08) mike: The ES dropped to 1065.50 and turned back up. The market has traded sideways and is very choppy, but 1067 must hold to avoid a reversal. A test of the high should be reversed, otherwise we get one more push towards 1078-1079 to finish this rally.

(Jul 09-13:12) mike: thats been a struggle all day to get thru 1069.25 and its exceeded by 1 tick n dn they go. buyers beware up here

(Jul 09-13:37) mike: scalp mkt. , or pass until this breaks out. 67.50 supp on es, 1800-1799 on nq must hold or reverse quickly

(Jul 09-13:47) mike: bought some puts on qqqqs
(Jul 09-13:51) mike: if 69 is held , can try for 71-72 area , must stay over 69.00
(Jul 09-13:58) mike: over 1069 its ok, but if broken, thn a failed rally

(Jul 09-14:11) mike: topped, buy some puts if
(Jul 09-14:14) mike: a poor looking pattern. a bounce that fizzles near 70 a good short
(Jul 09-14:17) mike: The choppy action stayed over 1067 but just failed a breakout. Use a bounce that stalls near 1070 to short, as this is acting tired and on edge.

(Jul 09-14:34) mike: 69.75 close enough. should not be exceeded now

(Jul 09-14:44) mike: exceeded. a dip should hold 68.50 area , mkt trying to sucker in longs before good sized drop

(Jul 09-14:55) mike: The bounce to 1069.75 took the ES to 1068.25 but that was reversed and 1070 was exceeded. A pullback should hold the 1070-1069 area now to keep the upside in gear. The 1078-1079 area is key if they can stay over 1070 and a spot for a reversal.
(Jul 09-14:57) mike: 1071.75-1072.50, gotta push thru

(Jul 09-15:07) mike: 1 min chart 9/18 ema trend guide. 72. needs to hold, or next bounce a short
(Jul 09-15:12) mike: 72 key now, 1807 nq its leading higher

(Jul 09-15:28) mike: suggest puts on any bounce,
(Jul 09-15:29) mike: the 73 area ideal if reched again
(Jul 09-15:30) mike: a quick look at my indicators shows this giving 3-4 sell signals if we close like this

(Jul 09-16:03) mike: next decent move is a pullback. have a great w/e

 

 

Thursday - July 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)
 

(Jul 08-09:47) mike: 67 reversed
(Jul 08-09:48) mike: gap should fill

(Jul 08-10:07) mike: more bearish action unless 1064 exceeded / gap fill 59.75

(Jul 08-10:32) mike: The market opened higher and then the ES reversed after poking over 1067 resistance for a few seconds and dropped to 1060.00 so far. They just missed filling the gap, and still can if 1064.50 is not exceeded/ held. If 1060-1059 holds or is reversed the upside is still intact. If broken a top is in short term.

(Jul 08-10:40) mike: sell the bounces under 64.50 -- 10100 on Dow cash
(Jul 08-10:47) mike: watch for support near 10050 on dow cash ,

(Jul 08-10:54) mike: finally gap fill, if short lock in partial profit, 62.50-63.00 resist now
(Jul 08-10:55) mike: i'll turn on audio in about 10 minutes or so

(Jul 08-10:59) mike: The ES bounced to 1064.50 and finally filled the gap. The bounces failed, and 1064.50 is now a key resistance. The market is vulnerable under that and the 1067.50 could be the for this bear bounce.

(Jul 08-11:06) mike: 10050 on dow cash needs to hold. a drop to 1052 likely if not held
(Jul 08-11:08) mike: f the ES pops up to 60-.60.50 area, nq to 1793-94 area, it should be sold

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 08-11:42) mike: audio off for now. a short under 61
(Jul 08-11:45) mike: 54 area small supp , nq leader, 1786 resist there a short

(Jul 08-11:59) mike: 1047 on es and 1770 were breakout areas yesterday, now key supp . 60ema on 5 min char at 1054.75
(Jul 08-12:01) mike: 57.50 is last trapped from range break , still in trouble under it

(Jul 08-12:09) mike: The 1060.50-1061.00 area turned into resistance after rolling over from 1064.50 and the ES fell to 1055.25 so far. The ES needs to get back over 1060.50-1061.00 to avoid another push lower. The 1055 area will need to hold, otherwise a drop towards the 1047 area on the ES and/or 1770 area on the NQ is likely before bouncing back.

(Jul 08-12:13) mike: bounces were 4.50 points and 4 pts, now 3.50 pts... need to break that symmetry and bounce better

(Jul 08-12:36) mike: a pop to lower high here that reverses is a short
(Jul 08-12:37) mike: 4.50 pt bounce rejected, 3 times now, 60 shouldnt be exceeded

(Jul 08-12:59) mike: lower high reversed. mkt under pressure under 59-60

(Jul 08-13:10) mike: this should fail, but a pullback tht holds around 58.00-57.50 could be scalp long

(Jul 08-13:27) mike: The 1056.75 level held 3 times before getting thru the 1061 resistance. The 1059 area needs to hold on a dip, otherwise the bounce will be over.

(Jul 08-13:34) mike: cover if long off 59 area.... audio on in few min

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jul 08-14:22) mike: The bounce fizzled at 1062 on the ES and rolled over and the 1059 turned into resistance before the drop to new lows. Sell bounces as they are not holding and the action has been poor since the early reversal.

(Jul 08-14:28) mike: 1048.00-1047.50 should be tested on this leg down before a good bounce , as long as 1057.50-1058.00 not cleared

(Jul 08-14:35) mike: nq rejected 1781-82, es 57.50, still a short unless exceeded/ held

(Jul 08-14:53) mike: that should be it for the bounce, 57 pivotal supp / must hold on dip
(Jul 08-15:00) mike: wrong about that. supp at 58 should / must hold. / 61-62 area resist to sell 61-62 area resist to sell
(Jul 08-15:07) mike: these bounces not sticking, sell test of 60 , 62 shouldnt be exceeded

(Jul 08-15:27) mike: 62 not exceeded yet , but scratch this if u sold est of 60

(Jul 08-15:41) mike: test of high reversal , 63.00- 62.50 needs to hold now,

(Jul 08-16:01) mike: 63 good support. a good close. a setup like this morn should be in cards in the morning. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday - July 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 07-10:21) mike: 35.50 barely exceeded , 1754.50-1755.50 nq rejected. a32 supp

(Jul 07-10:28) mike: The market rallied from the open and the 1035.50 on ES and the 1754.50-1755.50 zone on the NQ were tested. That could be it for this bounce if the 1032 area is broken. The key support is at 1027 area and should/ must hold.

(Jul 07-10:42) mike: nq dbl top at resist
(Jul 07-10:44) mike: 35 area small supp

(Jul 07-10:55) mike: 43.50-44.00 is a key resist just above. 38 now needs to hold on pullback

(Jul 07-11:02) mike: The ES held at 1032.50 and ran up 1041.75 so far. There is key resistance around the 1043.50-1044.00 area, then at 1048 if that 1044 is pushed thru. The 1038 area needs to hold to stay in trend up mode.

(Jul 07-11:09) mike: mkt getting a bit tired, nq needs to stay over 1757
(Jul 07-11:11) mike: prairie dog on nq ,
(Jul 07-11:14) mike: that should be it for the upside for awhile

(Jul 07-11:21) mike: The upside ran out of steam, and the steady uptrend was broken with the NQ leading the way so far. This looks like an oversold bounce, and a decent pullback should occur before another rally attempt. The 1032 area will be key if tested, it must hold or quickly reverse on a test to avoid a reversal.

(Jul 07-11:38) mike: 39.50 should hold, but the 36.50-35.50 area is going to be pivotal if deeper pullback.
(Jul 07-11:41) mike: 123 top, a short on a pop up

(Jul 07-11:51) mike: a break/ hold 36.50 puts pressure on to 1032.50-1032.00 area
(Jul 07-11:57) mike: The ES made a 123 / double top and broke 1038 (now resistance) so this could go towards 1032.50-1032.00 as a key support. If not held, then 1028-1027 would be next.

(Jul 07-12:23) mike: pops sold. drops find buyers / nq needs to get going up here, or a decent quick drop likely
(Jul 07-12:28) mike: scalp only , tight stop too
(Jul 07-12:32) mike: pullback to 38.50-38.00 should hold to stay in this range

(Jul 07-12:51) mike: The pullback held at 1035.75 and now that 1036.00-1035.50 area should be pivotal. As long as that area holds on a pullback, along with the 9850 area on Dow cash, the market avoids trouble and the rally continues. If broken, we'll have another failed rally. The 1043.50-1044.00 area is good resistance if the market can push thru the double top at 1041.50 area.

(Jul 07-13:19) mike: 43 is tend up supp, 41 should be key on a pullback now.

(Jul 07-13:28) mike: The ES broke and held 1043.50 and as long as that holds the 1048 area could be in the cards. If broken, 1041 should hold or else the market is reversing.

(Jul 07-13:35) mike: must bounce here, or topped

(Jul 07-13:48) mike: 1043 and 9900 on Dow cash need to hold now

(Jul 07-14:01) mike: 48-50 could be reversed... 43.00-42.50 is ''must hold'' now,

(Jul 07-14:18) mike: nq needs to get over 1770 and es over 48 soon, or a reversal to 43 area likely

(Jul 07-14:35) mike: 43.00-42.50 must hold or another failed rally . 47.50-48.00 now good resist. 1770 on nq

(Jul 07-15:07) mike: that should be it for this move, a test should be rejected if this is a one day affair. 45 now a key supp area

(Jul 07-15:18) mike: small pullbacks all day but for fall from 41.75 to 35.75 around noon -- a 2.50-3.00 pt dip should hold or things change.

(Jul 07-15:33) mike: 52.50 is 38.2 retrace from 1127.50 high on 6/21 to 1006 low
(Jul 07-15:34) mike: 50 is supp now.

(Jul 07-15:59) mike: 57.50-58.50 strong resist. then 62.50 -- careful w/ new longs up here
(Jul 07-16:01) mike: have a good rest of the day. watch that zone after hours. 53.00-5250 supp

 

 

Tuesday - July 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 06-10:09) mike: 34 needs to hold. 37.70-38.00 resist

(Jul 06-10:19) mike: thats it for a bit on the upside, 34 needs to hold

(Jul 06-10:26) mike: The ES opened up 17 points and after a dip they ran up to 1038.50. That should be hard to get through, but if broken then 1044 area is next and a key hurdle today. The 1034 area is the first support, but the 1028 area is the key area and must hold to avoid trouble today.

(Jul 06-10:43) mike: 34 held , but 123 top unless 37 is exceeded here

(Jul 06-11:12) mike: the ES needs to clear 36 and hold there to avoid rolling over

(Jul 06-11:24) mike: should test 31.25 , must hold , 35 resist

(Jul 06-11:36) mike: The ES bounced off of 1034.25 and reached 1037.00 and reversed. The NQ made a 123 top up at the 1762 area at the same time and the pullback was steady down to the opening range for the ES and 9800 on the Dow cash. If those lows are not held, then 1028-1027 would be next. A break/ hold over 1035 resistance is needed to avoid another push lower now.

(Jul 06-11:49) mike: 31.25 was met , now a turn dn from just under 35.00. still vulnerable under 35

(Jul 06-12:13) mike: no hold over 35,

(Jul 06-12:21) mike: if they hold here n bounce to 33.50- 34.00 then stall, a drop thru the low should occur

(Jul 06-12:27) mike: 28-27 will be key. sell the bounces. they did top this morn and struggling
(Jul 06-12:29) mike: 32.00-32.50 resist now

(Jul 06-12:43) mike: The ES bounced to 1034.50, just under 1035 updated resistance, and dropped to the 1027 support so far. The NQ is leading the market lower, and it has good resistance at 1752 now, and 1032 on the ES. Shorts still better odds under that resistance.

(Jul 06-12:49) mike: i'll turn on audio in a few minutes - stay shorts for now. looks like 29 bow pivotal resist

audio...audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 06-13:34) mike: audio off. 25.50 should hold if going higher, 27.50-28.00 resist 1
(Jul 06-13:39) mike: just sell bounces under 27.50-28.50

(Jul 06-13:42) mike: 20.25-19.50 small supp
(Jul 06-13:46) mike: The 1027.50 level turned in to good resistance after falling to 1024 and that is now key resistance on a bounce. The 1019.50 is small support, then down to the 1012 area.

(Jul 06-14:02) mike: 21.50 minor, 24.00-24.50 good resist now.

(Jul 06-14:13) mike: 21.50 minor r rejected, 1012.50 next

(Jul 06-14:21) mike: 1019.50-1020.25 on ES, 9700 on Dow cash, need cleared/ held on a pullback to turn trends

(Jul 06-14:36) mike: 20.25-19.50 supp now. must hold that . 1024 area resist

(Jul 06-14:44) mike: The ES reached 1015.50 and turned back up, and must stay over 1020.25-1019.50 to avoid another break and test of the lows. The 1024 area is key resistance to clear/ hold to avoid a drop.

audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jul 06-15:07) mike: audio off now


(Jul 06-15:08) mike: 19.50-20.00 resist now.

(Jul 06-15:21) mike: fyi, i miscalculated time the high was made. 19.50-20.00 its very bearish if close under it

(Jul 06-15:47) mike: a close over 23-24 area key hurdle. have a good day

 

 

Friday - July 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jul 02-09:45) mike: early strength sold, 1020 supp
(Jul 02-09:46) mike: 24.00 then 21.50-21.00 supp

(Jul 02-09:56) mike: 21 supp hit, 24 now resist

(Jul 02-10:29) mike: bounces still are ''run up, stall, drop'' -- 1024.50 pivotal this morning

(Jul 02-10:53) mike: staying under 24.50 is bearish. 9700 on do cash has been support. , must hold or the mkt can fall apart again

(Jul 02-11:00) mike: 22.25 small resist .
(Jul 02-11:07) mike: 21.50 resist/ pivotal

(Jul 02-12:12) mike: 1012.00-1011.50 good supp. stay over that we can rally back to 1020 resist / a dip here needs to turn up from 16 to look good

(Jul 02-12:20) mike: wedge pattern broke, a bounce a short , esp near 16.50- 17 that fails

(Jul 02-12:41) mike: 17 reversed . scalpers mkt here.

(Jul 02-13:06) mike: 13.50-14.00 resist

(Jul 02-14:26) mike: the 1017.50-1018.50 area is key area to get over and hold. . 9650 on dow cash is supp, must hold

(Jul 02-14:40) mike: that 17-18 is key to upside. if exceeded, 1024 next. if 1012.50-1011.50 tested, it will reversal area - have a great weekend - see you on tuesday

 

 

I was out today, Thursday, July 1st for dental surgery so I did not get Mike's daily log . I'm sorry for the inconvenience. ~ Julie

 

 

Wednesday - June 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 30-09:38) mike: 33 supp key now

(Jun 30-09:51) mike: 1040 needs to be held
(Jun 30-09:55) mike: pullback timeframe

(Jun 30-10:11) mike: The ES turned up from the 1033.00-1032.50 support, and sprinted to 1042.50 and stalled out. That 1033.25 low must hold, or the 1028 area will be tested. The 1044.00-1044.50 area needs to be cleared still to change the bigger trends.

(Jun 30-10:23) mike: they lost the good bid, look to short the pop ups under 40.50 area

(Jun 30-10:31) mike: 38 area is key now. staying over is bullish
(Jun 30-10:33) mike: 38 must hold. must pop over 40 and hold/ not reverse to get upside going

(Jun 30-10:47) mike: 39.50-40.50 resist here
(Jun 30-10:50) mike: 39.50 rejected, 35.50-34.50 supp

(Jun 30-11:02) mike: 39 on ES and 1767 on NQ is small resist. dips quickly reversed, 9850 on Dow cash is the good supp area in this range.

(Jun 30-11:14) mike: The market has chopped around after the early move. Per last night's update, the market should bounce but still have trouble holding gains. As long as the 1036 area on the ES is held, the market will be ok to buy, but don't overstay as there is a lot of work to do to move higher.

(Jun 30-11:36) mike: 42 is key, and 9900 on dow cash
(Jun 30-11:36) mike: i'll turn on audio in about 30 min or so
(Jun 30-11:39) mike: must stay over 40 to keep uptrend now
(Jun 30-11:43) mike: 44.50 key

(Jun 30-12:02) mike: sell a pop, 42.50 area or better, stop 44... thats a top for now
(Jun 30-12:05) mike: The bounce failed just under the 1044.00-1044.50 zone and that should be a top for now, especially if 1040 is broken.

(Jun 30-12:40) mike: this is a scalp mkt , the mkt is vulnerable

(Jun 30-12:50) mike: we're above the 36 supp, but the mkt is a short the bounce now , 41 and 1771 resist

(Jun 30-13:01) mike: The ES broke 1040 on the way to 1038.25 and bounced. The ES made its low at initial support and its high at the 2nd resistance so the high/ low could be in... but for now the ES is vulnerable under the 1042 area.

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 30-13:33) mike: sell under 40.00-40.

(Jun 30-14:13) mike: NQ leader, sell bounce 1768 , es should test 66.60-66.00 morning low are

(Jun 30-14:27) mike: 36 area met, cover shorts if you were in on retest if not already out

(Jun 30-14:43) mike: slinky patterns , the 38.50 now key supp

(Jun 30-14:56) mike: a dbl bottom on test of that 36 area - must hold over it now

(Jun 30-15:15) mike: same poor action despite oversold. 39-40 resist

(Jun 30-15:23) mike: The ES broke 1035 by 1 tick and turned up. The bounces still are not holding though, so 1038.50-1039.00 needs to be exceeded and held to change the "sell the bounces" mood.

(Jun 30-15:29) mike: 35 now good resist

(Jun 30-15:38) mike: 1028.50-1027.75 should be seen
(Jun 30-15:40) mike: 32.50-33 good resist now
(Jun 30-15:46) mike: 1022 key, then 1018/

(Jun 30-15:52) mike: 29-30 good resist, must be exceeded held
(Jun 30-15:52) mike: enjoy rest of your day

 

 

Tuesday - June 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 29-09:40) mike: 48.50-47.50 supp ,

(Jun 29-09:49) mike: its bearish unless 1052.50-1053.00 is exceeded / held

(Jun 29-10:01) mike: 1038 next supp 1047-48 resist

(Jun 29-10:15) mike: 47-48 should be pivotal this morn
(Jun 29-10:16) mike: The 1047-1048 area needs to be exceeded to dent the downside momentum. The 1038 area must hold or the 1032 area would be a reversal area.

(Jun 29-10:25) mike: under 44, press on
(Jun 29-10:28) mike: should test 38 before any decent bounce attempt.
(Jun 29-10:33) mike: feeble bounce off 38 area, , 1042 resist, then 44 area. if not cleared 32.50-32.00 area would be next.

(Jun 29-10:39) mike: 42 .25 bounce high... need to break/ hold over that to arrest downside momentum

(Jun 29-11:14) mike: The 1038 area was reversed, and the break/ hold over the 1042 area was a plus. Unless the 1042 area is broken, the market will be "okay" but this bounce shouldn't get past 1052-1053 without some trouble.

(Jun 29-11:28) mike: a bounce is a short, the 47 should be good trend resist

(Jun 29-12:12) mike: 4150 now pivotal - a test is a short
(Jun 29-12:16) mike: ES hasn't spent much time under 1040 -- if held, test/ break of the lows. the 42 area is resist

(Jun 29-12:23) mike: might be a scalp long at 1040 if tested again. the Vix is up 15%, Trin over 3.00..... bearish intraday, but under regular conditions a reversal and snap back bounce is good odds.
(Jun 29-12:25) mike: this should fizzle out under 45 and pull back

(Jun 29-12:40) mike: this could give ay here, NQ needs to get over 1777 and stick

(Jun 29-12:56) mike: nq reverse 1777.50. sideways now, but vulnerable under 53
(Jun 29-12:58) mike: The ES bounced to the 1047-1048 area and reversed, so trend down unless that's exceeded.

(Jun 29-13:14) mike: the ES needs to get over 43 at least, 45 really, and then push higher, then hold around 1043 on a ''dip'' and go up right away...... otherwise drift lower towards the 38 area or 32 if broken

(Jun 29-13:28) mike: staying under 1040, need to get over and not reverse

(Jun 29-13:37) mike: 1040 was touched, then pressure was back on to break to lowr low,. the cigar pattern (see e-book for cigar pattern) broken, 39.50-40.50 now resist

(Jun 29-13:51) mike: key area here, the dow cash could make a double bottom at 9850 if there's 1 more push lower tht reverses. nq is off 65 points, due a bounce and a stronger rally if they get turned around and make a run higher towards 1047-1048 on ES.

(Jun 29-14:04) mike: 39.75-39.25 should/ must hold now or still unable to hold on to gains and test lows

(Jun 29-14:12) mike: After the last update the market made new lows for the day, with the ES reversing from 1036.25. That could be a low, but the upside will not be easy even if it is. That 11047-1048 area is the big hurdle to clear and hold, and the 1040 area needs to hold on a pullback now.

(Jun 29-14:58) mike: unless you are nimble, avoid. or use a pop up that stalls under 44 to sell for now

(Jun 29-15:12) mike: they should break dn

(Jun 29-15:23) mike: 38 good resist now , 1028-1027 next supp

(Jun 29-15:46) mike: 27.75 , then a ways lower , teens
(Jun 29-15:48) mike: the bounce failed at 37.50, just under break dn level, good pic of ''last trapped'' 38 key now

(Jun 29-16:07) mike: a decent bounce should be in the cards before another drop, have a nice rest of the day

 

 

Monday - June 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 28-09:40) mike: 74.00-74.50 resist

(Jun 28-09:51) mike: 71.50 resist

(Jun 28-10:08) mike: nq will need to get over 1834 and hold to change trend

(Jun 28-10:19) mike: The ES popped up to 1076.50 on the open and was immediately sold and a drop to 1066.50 happened in the first 30 minutes. The NQ is dragging the market down and it must break/ hold 1834 area to get out of trouble this morning.

(Jun 28-10:29) mike: mkt turns in first 20-40 min is common. right now, a dip needs to hold the 1070.50-1069.50 zone, or NQ break/ hold 1834

(Jun 28-10:34) mike: nq failed at 1834 resist. sell pop up w tight stop

(Jun 28-10:42) mike: scratch any shorts for now
(Jun 28-10:45) mike: 1069.25 held 3 times and a pivotal supp now. they're ok over 1069.25 but wedge breaks if 6925 not held

(Jun 28-10:54) mike: 72.50-72.00 now supp, must hold there
(Jun 28-10:58) mike: The lows made in the first 30 minutes this morning are now very key support areas. The NQ broke out over 1834 and that now must hold, along with the 1072 area on the ES to avoid a topping pattern now.

(Jun 28-11:03) mike: key areas . 76 and 1844
(Jun 28-11:06) mike: 74.50 trend supp now , 1842 on nq

(Jun 28-11:15) mike: stalling a bit but trends stay up unless 75.50 breaks. a hold over 76.50 brings short covering move
(Jun 28-11:19) mike: a move to 1073.50 is as far as it goes, or topped

(Jun 28-11:30) mike: held just over 73.50. thats key to hold now. 79.50-80.25 area next resist

(Jun 28-11:41) mike: 76 needs to hold, no damage done unless broken.

(Jun 28-11:56) mike: topped if 74.50-74.00 not held. a

(Jun 28-12:05) mike: 76 a short. longs trapped above, upside very limited

(Jun 28-12:15) mike: The ES topped just under the 1079.00-1079.50 initial resistance and that was it for the bounce so far. The 1076.50 area should be good resistance on a bounce. If that is not exceeded/ held then the market is back in trouble.

(Jun 28-12:58) mike: if they test 73 area, would need quick turn back up, or they start to roll over

(Jun 28-13:03) mike: The ES bounced back to the 1075 area twice and was rejected, and since the bounces are not holding stay with selling the bounces under 1075 on ES and 1845 area on the NQ.

(Jun 28-13:07) mike: could come un glued staying under 73.00-73.50

(Jun 28-13:21) mike: 73 rejected, the 1069 must hld, reverse , or test/break 66.50 low

(Jun 28-13:30) mike: 72.50-73.00 resist, pivotal. 1840 on nq, i'll turn audio on in a few min
(Jun 28-13:33) mike: audio on for a bit

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 28-13:48) mike: if 72.50 exceeded/ held then can get out of trouble.

(Jun 28-14:10) mike: look for reversal if 75 area reached and move stalls. the 72.50 now key supp

(Jun 28-14:23) mike: The 1072.50 level was broken and held on a pullback, and the 1075 level was missed by 1 tick so far. That 1072.50 area is pivotal this afternoon. As long as that holds, the market will be in an uptrend and no harm done, just be on alert for a sell-off if 1077-1078 is tested and the move reverses.

(Jun 28-14:29) mike: shorting under 75 , it stuck , if 72.50 breaks

(Jun 28-14:33) mike: 72.50 quickly reversed, but lots of resist at 74.50-75.00 to sell against -

(Jun 28-15:19) mike: if you sold against the 77-78 area / its a top, a lower high now aother scalp short

(Jun 28-15:53) mike: no stick to bounces. enjoy the rest of your day.

 

Thursday - June 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 24-09:55) mike: nq needs to get over 1860 and hold to turn trends,
(Jun 24-09:58) mike: 1075.50-1074.50 must hold or the 1072 , maybe 1068-67

(Jun 24-10:13) mike: need a hold over 79.50-80.00

(Jun 24-10:34) mike: The 1075.50-1074.50 zone was quickly reversed 30 minutes into trading and is a key support area now. Bounces are failing so unless 1081.50-1082.00 area is exceeded and held on a pullback the market is vulnerable and could drop to lower lows.

(Jun 24-10:41) mike: a little wedge break,

(Jun 24-10:45) mike: 1072, then 68-67 supp

(Jun 24-10:57) mike: we got the new lows, bounced off 72 area, but stay with short on bounces, a move to 68-67 area unless 77 is broken/ held

(Jun 24-11:19) mike: 1848 on nq is the key, need to break hold over to get a change

(Jun 24-11:53) mike: 20ema on 5 min there a guide so far, 1075.50 now , 73.50 needs to hold here

(Jun 24-12:01) mike: buy dip that holds near 75
(Jun 24-12:05) mike: watch 79.50-80.00 reversal if reached , need to hold 75.50 now on the dip
(Jun 24-12:10) mike: 75.75 low, this will fail
(Jun 24-12:11) mike: nq has strong / key resist at 1858 area. a transition zone. it must clear and hold or back down they go

(Jun 24-12:18) mike: The ES dropped to lower low then turned up from 1069.50, but so far the bounce failed at 1077.75. Unless that level and 1958 on the NQ are exceeded/ held the market remains vulnerable. A test of the lows that reverses would set up a good trade on the long side, but the market get back in trouble if 1075 is not held.

(Jun 24-12:56) mike: pivotal spot here at 75

(Jun 24-13:34) mike: THAT 77.50-78.50 is the key/ pivotal area on upside. the dips are holding, bounces failing... if they don't reject it again here soon, 81.50-83.00 could be seen

(Jun 24-13:44) mike: they are a good short if 1 more pop up to 79.50-80.50 area

(Jun 24-13:59) mike: the quick run ups were being sold as soon as they stalled out a few seconds , same w/ dips. they caught a decent bid on this move, but 79.50 now must hold to keep upside going

(Jun 24-14:08) mike: The 1077.75 area on ES and 1858 on the NQ were broken and held/ reversed up from those on a dip but the move looks tired and 1079.50 must hold to avoid turning back down.

(Jun 24-14:15) mike: that should be a top, if you sold 79.50-80.50 stop at 82 and don't marry it. if bounce to a lower high and reverse its 123 top


audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 24-14:58) mike: 68-67 may e seen here, 74 resist now

(Jun 24-15:20) mike: The 1079.50 broke and the downside picked up steam and reached the 1068-1067 area, but ES must get over 1071 to take a bit of pressure off.

(Jun 24-15:45) mike: ugly action all week since rejecting 1114.50 monday morn... no good reason yet to buy. maybe in the morning. have a great rest of the day.

 

 

Wednesday - June 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 23-09:26) mike: 97.50-98.00 reversal earlier, good resist

(Jun 23-10:05) mike: 78-77 area next , just sell bounces for now

(Jun 23-10:15) mike: The market opened slightly higher but couldn't hold and the ES dropped to 1087.50 support 15 minutes in. The home sales number was horrible, and they dropped tp 1080 so far. The 1087.50-1088.50 area should offer good resistance. A test of 1075.50-1074.50 is in the cards if the 1080 level is broken and not reversed quickly.

(Jun 23-11:00) mike: that should be it for the bounce, 87.50-88.50 resist. nq leading it must hold 1868 or drop to 64-62

(Jun 23-11:31) mike: MKT has a decent bid nq is key, it hld 64 on dip. mkt ok unless that breaks
(Jun 23-11:35) mike: hold on need to get over 87.50
(Jun 23-11:36) mike: a break of 1864 on nq needed to get push lower
(Jun 23-11:38) mike: The ES reached 1087.50 and backed off. The market is vulnerable unless cleared still.
(Jun 23-11:44) mike: need a push under 84 that isn't quickly reversed now , or nq break 1865-64

(Jun 23-12:16) mike: if short you might want to lock in some profit in here ..

(Jun 23-12:32) mike: i would turn on audio, but not much to say. maybe after the fed release
(Jun 23-12:35) mike: 20 ema on 5 min chart [use day session, 930 am open to 415pm settlement] has been a lid all morn, must be cleared/ held here

(Jun 23-12:53) mike: 87.50-88.50 , a break hold gets em to 89.50-91.00 area, dip to 85.50-85.00 now supp...

(Jun 23-13:02) mike: no reversal unless 85.50 broken. nq a better long since holding 1864

(Jun 23-13:19) mike: not buying here, sell against 87.50-88.50 resist unless broken held

(Jun 23-13:25) mike: The ES bounced off 1082.50 and then rallied to the 1087.50-1088.50 resistance and backed off twice. If 1085.50 is broken then a test of the 1082-1081 is likely in front of the Fed.

(Jun 23-14:00) mike: after the release we should get an up/ down/ up [or vise versa] then a trend should start after 15-20 minutes or so

(Jun 23-14:11) mike: audio on after the fed release , tho no trades given unless time for all to get on a good setup, not fast moves where cant get filled

(Jun 23-14:22) mike: down, up, down.. sell under the high

(Jun 23-14:36) mike: 92.50 need to hold

(Jun 23-14:55) mike: 9090.60 - 91.00 needs cleared to avoid more drop

(Jun 23-15:04) mike: The ES dropped to 1084.25 then jumped to 1095.50 and reversed, the bounces will not stick so be short under the 1092 area basis
ES.

(Jun 23-15:26) mike: need to stay over 88.50 es, 1872 on nq , or they reverse down again -- 83.50-82.50 key supp now

(Jun 23-15:42) mike: 1874 nq is the key area. 89.50 es , have a good rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday - June 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 22-09:49) mike: 1114.50-1115.00 small short
(Jun 22-09:51) mike: 1112.50-1112.0 small supp
(Jun 22-09:53) mike: scalp trade before housing data w/ 1 trailer

(Jun 22-10:06) mike: 1111.00-1111.50 good resist now

(Jun 22-10:17) mike: The early strength was reversed from the 1114.50-1115.00 initial resistance and dropped to 1107.00 so far. The 1111.25-1111.75 area needs cleared/ held or 1102-1101 could be seen this morning.

(Jun 22-10:19) mike: stay with this to 1102-1101 area. 1110 now resist
(Jun 22-10:22) mike: 1103 would be symmetry and a dbl bottom, possibly. a bounce must occur there, or things are breaking down
(Jun 22-10:31) mike: 1108.50 is pivotal this morn. only a hold over that gets mkt out of trouble for a bit

(Jun 22-10:43) mike: bounces have been 3 points. a move over 1107.75 that holds will arrest dnside momentum here

(Jun 22-10:59) mike: 08.00 needs to hold . watch tick extremes on these moves for turns

(Jun 22-11:16) mike: the ES hasn't stayed under 1105 very long as shorts cover there. pressure on if they go under 1105 and not reverse quickly. otherwise they keep chopping around

(Jun 22-11:38) mike: 1109.00-1108.50 good supp now, needs to hold on pullback, it should . 14.50-15.00 still key resist to break/ hold

(Jun 22-11:59) mike: a little 123 there, if 1108.50 broken, short the next bounce or now near 1111.00-1111.50, tight stop

(Jun 22-12:09) mike: if short lock in profits at 09.50 or better on part at least

(Jun 22-12:36) mike: The bounce to 1112.75 was rejected and another little 123 top formed and the market is backing off. We are getting 2 sided action, but given the sell signals and a market unable to hold gains, the bounces are better opportunities on short side under 1111, and especially the 1114.50-1115.00 initial resistance and early high area.

(Jun 22-12:40) mike: looks like 1108.50-1109.00 is going to be pivotal still

(Jun 22-12:56) mike: this is winding tighter , if 1109 is sold, and then 1107 breaks then 1105 tested

(Jun 22-13:23) mike: watch nq at 1907-1906, shorts trapped, if broken they drop hard

(Jun 22-13:32) mike: The market is wound tight so unless the 1108.50-1109.50 area on the ES and 1908-1910 on the NQ are exceeded/ held the market could get hit pretty hard this afternoon.

(Jun 22-13:36) mike: 1107.00-1107.50 resist now -- 1105 =must hold= or its to 1102 then 1098-1097

(Jun 22-13:51) mike: a move with some gusto off 1105 again. and dbl bottoms. but, the mkt has acted poorly, and since this is still 2 sided, a dip should now hold near 06.50 to avoids break down

(Jun 22-13:54) mike: just get short on bounces, action poor

(Jun 22-14:04) mike: finally a hold under 1105, resist now

(Jun 22-14:24) mike: ounce to the old supp / break area stalled should retest 1102-1101 major area

(Jun 22-14:42) mike: The ES broke the 1105 area, then bounced back for a nice reentry (if not short) and has reached the 1102.00-1100.75 zone. Still, unless they get over 1105.50 and hold on a dip the downside has more to go, 1097.75 then 1093-1092 if the downside can not reverse.

(Jun 22-14:58) mike: 1093.00 met, 1098 resist now

(Jun 22-15:13) mike: if 93-92 not held, then 88-87 next. 1098 now resist
(Jun 22-15:16) mike: The ES dropped to the 1092.50-1091.50 zone and held, but 1098 needs cleared and then held on a dip to turn this around.

(Jun 22-15:27) mike: avoid longs. even if they bounce, it will only set a nice short
(Jun 22-15:29) mike: 98 was rejected, and it needs cleared/ held or 88-87 area next

(Jun 22-15:40) mike: 94.50area small resist. have a great rest of the day

 

 

Monday - June 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 21-09:42) mike: huge gap a fade, 25 resist

(Jun 21-10:02) mike: 24.50-24.00 needs to hold , or reversal occurs.

(Jun 21-10:15) mike: 24 held , but a lower high that reverses is a sell up here
(Jun 21-10:16) mike: 26 should't hold if broken.
(Jun 21-10:18) mike: tht should be a top

(Jun 21-10:30) mike: The big gap up open was sold and they made a 123 top on the test of 1127.00 and turned down. The highs should be in for the morning, and the 1121-1120 area is small support, then 1117.50-1116.50 is a key support. Only a hold over 1125 gets em out of down trends for now.

(Jun 21-10:49) mike: they should break

(Jun 21-10:56) mike: 22 now trend down resist

(Jun 21-11:06) mike: nq 1920 looks like key area now, it must hold or will lead es towards 1117 area.
(Jun 21-11:13) mike: not any gusto to move off 1120 supp on es yet, nq 1920 held better and still a key area for hold or break lower again.

(Jun 21-11:45) mike: The dropped to 1120 but the bounce was not very strong, so unless 1124 is exceeded/ held the market remains vulnerable up here.

(Jun 21-11:50) mike: nq weaker and easier short

(Jun 21-12:03) mike: the 1120 supp needs to hold or 1117-1116 is good supp, should give bounce
(Jun 21-12:08) mike: 20.25-20.75 resist

(Jun 21-12:21) mike: tend dn r atg 20 now
(Jun 21-12:25) mike: if short from early , cover part 1117.50-1116.50 zone . 1120 trend resist now

(Jun 21-12:53) mike: 18.50 needed cleared/ then hold on dip, to get out of trend down mode
(Jun 21-12:58) mike: The 1120 level broke and held and the ES reached 1117.50-1116.50 support. To break the trend down action, the 1118 area needs to be exceeded and held on a dip. Should that occur then the 1124 area would be a key area to watch for a turn.

(Jun 21-13:09) mike: 21.50-22.50 resist on up move

(Jun 21-13:23) mike: no oomph, follow thru on bounce... but 1118 held. getting tricky..i will turn audio on for a bit starting in 5 minutes or so
(Jun 21-13:28) mike: audio on for a little bit

(Jun 21-13:42) mike: 1117.50-1118.50 trend dn resist now
(Jun 21-13:42) mike: should not be exceeded

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 21-14:32) mike: nq rejected 1919 , a little 123 top, and 1120 not cleared. still a short under 1120 and 1920 nq

(Jun 21-14:55) mike: The ES bounced to 1119.50 and turned back down. The lows were tested but now 1117-1118 is good resistance that should be reversed if tested. The low should come around 3:30 or at the close. The 1112.50-1112.00 area must be held or more trouble.

(Jun 21-15:06) mike: 1450 trend resist, 1 min chart 18ema guide
(Jun 21-15:11) mike: ugly day despite being unchanged, a close dn here is bad news . 111001108.50 a key area

(Jun 21-15:28) mike: 1min 18 ema still guide

(Jun 21-15:39) mike: could bounce, but will be sold as a high for the rally in place, 1110 then 1114.50 resist if a pop

(Jun 21-15:42) mike: 1102-1101 a major area

 

 

Friday - June 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 18-09:40) mike: 1113.75-1114.25 / tight stop
(Jun 18-09:46) mike: no reversal unless 1110 broken / econ data at 10am , scalp out or tgt stop
(Jun 18-09:52) mike: 12.50 shouldnt be exceeded

(Jun 18-10:14) mike: The ES popped up to the 1113.75-1114.25 zone on the open and dropped to 1109.00 before turning back up. The lows made 30 minutes into the day and unless those are broken the bulls are still in charge. If broken, then a high should be in place.

(Jun 18-10:26) mike: they need to stay over 1111 now to avoid reversal. follow he nq its leading this up

(Jun 18-10:38) mike: 1116.50-1117.00 reached, a drop needs to hold 1114 area now

(Jun 18-10:57) mike: The ES pushed thru to the 1116.50-1117.00 zone and pulled back. The 1114.25-1113.75 zone is now support that must hold to keep the upside in gear.

(Jun 18-11:18) mike: thats it on upside, if they get a pop they shouldnt stick
(Jun 18-11:20) mike: if mkt still strong it should bounce here
(Jun 18-11:21) mike: 1115 good resist now

(Jun 18-11:33) mike: 1114.75 resist
(Jun 18-11:39) mike: 1114.50 now key, must be cleared held to change trend

(Jun 18-11:46) mike: 1111.25 small supp

(Jun 18-11:51) mike: The ES made a little 123 / double top at 1116.75 and 1114.50 was broken and held on a bounce. The move topped out for now unless a bounce get back over 1114.50 on the ES and also 1918 on the NQ and not quickly reverse.

(Jun 18-12:10) mike: NQ didn't get to 1918, ES took out resist by 1 tick no hold , its vulnerable under those

(Jun 18-12:29) mike: The ES popped up to 1114.75 and the NQ got to 1917.75 and they reversed and the market has rolled over. At this juncture, shorting bounces is better odds trade as the ES topped at a key resistance area, and each bounce has less momentum and are not holding.

(Jun 18-12:31) mike: should see 1108 , 1102 possible

(Jun 18-13:26) mike: they should pop towards 1114 if 1111.75 holds
(Jun 18-13:28) mike: not going to do it ,

(Jun 18-13:44) mike: buy program , tick extreme, 12.50 needs hold

(Jun 18-14:08) mike: After the last update the ES bounced off of 1110 while the NQ made a lower low at 1909.25 and they bounced back. That move was reversed after a breakout higher failed. Expect the bounces to fail. If the ES breaks under 1110 and is not quickly reversed, the pressure should be on and then 1108 would be next. The 1114 area needs to be cleared / held or the 1110 area needs to break/ hold to get out of potential trouble. Days after quarterly expiration can be turning points and with highs at resistance that could set up a poor Monday if not cleared today.

Next update is Monday morning. Have a nice weekend.

 

 

 

Thursday - June 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 17-9:49) mike: 1110.50 is pivotal

(Jun 17-10:01) mike: bounce should fail at/ under 1109

(Jun 17-10:05) mike: 1109.00 rejected. key area now to clear/ hold

(Jun 17-10:17) mike: The market opened at yesterday's highs and was sold and it has been trend down since. The ES needs to get over 1109 and hold on a pullback to avoid trouble. Sell bounces under that area for now.

(Jun 17-10:22) mike: 1106.50 resist now
(Jun 17-10:29) mike: 1105 needs cleared/ held - 1102 tested 3 times now, it must hold or 98-97

(Jun 17-10:41) mike: bottom possible
(Jun 17-10:43) mike: a good bid just under 1102, it must break and not quickly reverse. still upside is limited on a bounce

(Jun 17-10:46) mike: 1105.00-1105.50 need cleared / held to stop trend dn action. avoid longs

(Jun 17-11:12) mike: The ES dropped just under the 1102.50-1101.75 area on the ES and reversed 3 times, so no break down as long as that holds. Still, the upside should be difficult and it looks like the market is still vulnerable unless 1105.00-1105.50 is cleared and held on a pullback.

(Jun 17-11:20) mike: 1105.50 not held.. better supp at 1104 supp must hold. audio on in a few minutes


(Jun 17-11:28) mike: i'll turn on audio around noon, sorry . rigt now mkt ok unless 1104 breaks -- 1107.50-110800 resist

(Jun 17-11:50) mike: The ES got over 1105 and reached new resistance at 1107.50-1108.00 zone so far. That needs to be exceeded / held to get a run back towards 1111-1112 area. If it can not, the 1105 should be strong support, otherwise another test of 1102 could occur.

(Jun 17-12:08) mike: failed rally , but 1105.50 holding... scalpers mkt. audio for a little bit starting in 2 min

(Jun 17-12:19) mike: audio on for a bit, 1107 resist

 

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 17-12:36) mike: 1106.00-1106.50 rest

(Jun 17-12:44) mike: pressure on unless 1106. es and 1905 nq are exceeded / held

(Jun 17-12:56) mike: The 1108.00 level was quickly rejected, and 1105 broke, and 1103.50 was seen. Now the 1106.00 area needs to be cleared/ held to have a chance to push to 1108 again

(Jun 17-13:06) mike: both es and nq reject new resist. stay w short side under those

(Jun 17-13:21) mike: the mkt is getting comfortable at these prices, this could get legs, if 1106.00-110575 is held

(Jun 17-13:41) mike: as long as 1105 is holding, the mkt is ok . if broken, then a bounce after the break is a short

(Jun 17-14:04) mike: The market continues to find buying on the drops, and has made it back to the unchanged level. As long as the 1105 area holds, no damage is done, but if broken then the next bounce after the break would be sold.

(Jun 17-14:13) mike: 1108 supp now, should be tested

(Jun 17-14:19) mike: 1108 needs to give a bounce. if a pp to lower high is reversed, its a 123 type top

(Jun 17-14:34) mike: this bounce is a short if 1109-1110 tested, reversed

(Jun 17-14:46) mike: action turning bad, and bad pattern, get short if they can pop from 1105 here,, lot of reasons this is a top or very close to one

(Jun 17-14:51) mike: The ES ran up to 1110.50 and reversed, and we have a new range now it appears. If the 1109-1110 area is tested it would set up a great short the way the market is acting this afternoon. A break/ hold of 1102 would be bad news short term.

(Jun 17-15:06) mike: if 1105.50 not cleared, mkt is breaking dn again,

(Jun 17-15:15) mike: mkt lost its underlying bid, 98-97 is key

(Jun 17-15:21) mike: 2 min 15 sma guide

(Jun 17-15:37) mike: we have a big sideways range, a pullback needs to/ should hold at 1105, or else 1102 finally breaks.

(Jun 17-15:54) mike: fizzled out, 1 min
(Jun 17-15:55) mike: 9/18 ema trend guide still

(Jun 17-16:12) mike: last 30 min they run for the roses. nice comeback, 1120 could still be seen. enjoy the rest of your day.

 

 

Wednesday - June 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 16-09:38) mike: if you bought supp, get out 1106 r better

(Jun 16-09:48) mike: 110.75 was transition area, must be cleared/ held
(Jun 16-09:51) mike: 1101.75 transition number

(Jun 16-10:15) mike: topping pattern, 1105 must hold, a bounce should be sold under 1108.50
(Jun 16-10:22) mike: reversal from 07.75 , key resist now

(Jun 16-10:27) mike: The lower open turned up from just over 1102 on the ES and bounced to 1109.00 before stalling out. Per last night, the upside would be difficult so look for shorts on bounces, and see how the 1202 area does on a test.

(Jun 16-10:30) mike: 1105.50 area now resist

(Jun 16-10:45) mike: 1102 area held but 1106area should be a high if its going to break 1102

(Jun 16-10:51) mike: The ES bounced off of 1102.50 but the move doesn't have much gusto. A move over 1106 that sticks is needed to avoid a test/ break of the 1102 area and go to the 1098.00-1097.50 zone.

(Jun 16-11:03) mike: holding 1106.00-1105.50 a must,

(Jun 16-11:14) mike: 1106.00-1105.50 held , , high tested. 1107.50-1107.00 trend supp must hold to keep this upside going

(Jun 16-11:39) mike: The ES took out 1106.00, held 1105.75 on a dip, then went to 1110.75 so far. That's just under good resistance but it looks like the market will be ok unless 1108 is broken. A break could cause a reversal.

(Jun 16-11:48) mike: a 123 pattern , a high in for now

(Jun 16-12:15) mike: 1108 broke by 1 tick and turned up. mkt is sttill bullish unless 1111-1110 breaks

(Jun 16-12:24) mike: The 1108 level was broken by 1 tick and then the market turned back up and rallied to 1113.50 so far. As long as the 1111-1110 area is not broken/ held we still have uptrends and the 1116.75-1117.00 zone could be seen. Just be careful of a lower high that reverses up here, as it could set up a pullback.

(Jun 16-12:36) mike: 1110.50 held but if they test the 1112 level its a short.
(Jun 16-12:38) mike: the lower high / revrsal [123] was triggerd at 1112

(Jun 16-12:48) mike: the 1116 on sp500 cash is positive/ negative break line for the year up there too. 1111 now resist

(Jun 16-13:04) mike: if 1108.50 breaks, 1105-1104 next and it must hold/ reverse there to avoid 1202 again

(Jun 16-13:10) mike: The ES made a lower high at 1112.50 and turned down and caused a pullback to just over the 1107.75 support. If that level is broken and not quickly reversed, then we could revisit the key 1102 area for a 3rd time. On the other side, it the 1113 area is exceeded we get one more push towards 1117 to see if the market can hold its gains against the odds.

(Jun 16-13:50) mike: choppy, mkt coiling for a decent move, upside in gear as long as 1110 not broken.
(Jun 16-13:58) mike: 11.50-11.00 now supp. i'll turn on audio in few min

(Jun 16-14:04) mike: The ES held at 1108.50 on the pullback, and the market will be in decent shape unless 1111 is broken. If it is, then the trend up action could reverse.

audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....

(Jun 16-14:19) mike: i have to go for a bit, my apologies. 12.50 looks pivotal and 1909 on nq

(Jun 16-14:45) mike: 1113-ish , buy some puts for a scale in swing trade

(Jun 16-14:56) mike: scratch those puts. , or keep tight stop, no damage doe un les 1110 breaks
(Jun 16-14:58) mike: hmm. must get over 14 n stick now or topped

(Jun 16-15:10) mike: this could head south fast. sell a pop

(Jun 16-15:31) mike: The move off of 1108.50 took the ES to 1114.75, but 1111 broke and downside picked up steam. Short bounces, as this should be in trouble especially if 1102 is not held.

(Jun 16-15:37) mike: 1108.50-1109.50 a good cluster of resist now
(Jun 16-15:44) mike: resist was rejected, under pressure unless cleared
(Jun 16-15:44) mike: have a great rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday - June 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 15-09:34) mike: 1094.00-1094.50 key

(Jun 15-10:17) mike: 97 resist was rejected. if 88.00-87.50 tested it should reverse up. if not, then mkt in trouble

(Jun 15-10:26) mike: The ES ran up to 1097.00 resistance and backed off to 1092.50 so far. The ES needs to stay over 1093-1092 to stay out of trouble, and possibly go to test the top of the range.

(Jun 15-10:51) mike: 95 needs to hold now. stalling, top of range just 4 points higher

(Jun 15-11:03) mike: 97.00-96.50 now trend supp , need to stay over or a dbl top here

(Jun 15-11:13) mike: a 123 top can set up if high tested/ reversed

(Jun 15-11:31) mike: The NQ lead the market higher and it double topped at 1876 so far, and the ES made a 123 top at 1095.50. If the 1096.50 area is broken, then the trends could turn down, but good support is at 1093-1092 and that will hold unless the market up if tested.

(Jun 15-11:55) mike: mkt has a better tone today so far. 98.50 supp

(Jun 15-12:10) mike: 99.50 trend supp must hold -- right at key resist up here
(Jun 15-12:15) mike: 99.50 holds keeps upside from reversal. key supp now, if broken 98 next supp area should hold. 1102 area top of big range , then 1108 area if keeps going

(Jun 15-12:32) mike: The ES tested 1102, the top of the big range, and backed off. Another failure up here could be terminal. The 1098.50-1098.00 area should/ must hold if the market is going to break out higher.

(Jun 15-12:39) mike: small short position w/ stop just a bit over the highs

(Jun 15-12:57) mike: The ES went to 1098.25 and held after coming off of a test of the top of the big range. However unless the 1102 area is exceeded soon, and/or 1098 breaks, then it could be like yesterday and drop pretty hard. A break/ hold over 1102 would do the opposite and trigger buying most likely.

(Jun 15-13:11) mike: battle at key resist. if 98 area breaks, no quick reversal, then pressure in on, but not until

(Jun 15-13:21) mike: 1102 needs to hold now, 98.50-98.00 is key supp, 10300 dow cash too

(Jun 15-13:39) mike: The ES pushed through 1102 after reversing up from 1098.75 keeping the trend up move in gear. As long as 1102 is held, the market in good shape, but if broken then we could have a failure and then the 1098.50-1098.00 area would be the key support to avoid trouble.

(Jun 15-13:42) mike: this is acting a bit tired now, careful buying up here

(Jun 15-13:52) mike: 1102 held , if broken we could see bids pulled and mkt pullback to 1100-1098.50 area

(Jun 15-14:03) mike: 1105.50-1006.00 net resist, then 1111-1112

(Jun 15-14:12) mike: The ES held at 1102.00 and the trend up move continues. There is small resistance at the 1105.50-1106.00 area, then the 1111-1112 area is next big resistance. If 1102 is broken, and not quickly reversed, then the trend up move is over. The tone is much different that lately, so stay with the trend unless broken up to the 1111-1112 area.

(Jun 15-14:15) mike: 04.50-04.00 trend supp now.
(Jun 15-14:20) mike: very good bid, getting parabolic, watch for reversal / pullback from 1108, 1111-1112 area might not be seen today

(Jun 15-14:31) mike: that might be it, 1105.50-1105.00 area must hold

(Jun 15-14:54) mike: 1105 keeps trend up going. a push to 10400 on dow cash could be a road block if the they hold up

(Jun 15-15:36) mike: low was made 5 minutes in, the high can come w/ 5 min left. or 1111-1112 area.

(Jun 15-15:54) mike: this area good resist. but against good trend, have a good rest of the day.

(Jun 15-15:56) mike: 1111-1112 zone w/ 5 minutes left. tht is it for the move today anyhow , take care

 

 

Monday - June 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 14-09:45) mike: a hold under 94 bearish

(Jun 14-09:57) mike: should test 88 ,

(Jun 14-10:04) mike: dow cash supp 10250 - mkt ok unless broken. normally a reversal in this time frame, but only a break of these lows turns trend

(Jun 14-10:08) mike: 123 tops

(Jun 14-10:16) mike: no follow thru on dip. mkt is in rally mode over 93-92 zone. they shouldn't break that or a high will be in
(Jun 14-10:35) mike: The ES opened up 10.75 points at 1096.25 and that was sold down to 1091.50 before turning back up. The 1097.75-1098.50 area was rejectes, and that is the last big hurdle before getting to the top of the range. The 1093-1092 area needs to hold or a test of 1088 or lower is likely.

(Jun 14-10:37) mike: 94.50 is a pivotal area, needs to hold here

(Jun 14-10:46) mike: 97.50 is a top, resist at 96, 1870 nq

(Jun 14-10:52) mike: the mkt still has a good bid on drops, that 94 is still the pivotal area tht must break to turn mkt down.. careful short until/ unless broken

(Jun 14-11:09) mike: 9700-96.50 supp now,

(Jun 14-11:14) mike: 98.50-98.00 now supp, if 98 breaks then a bounce after would be sold..

(Jun 14-11:22) mike: 99.00-98.50 is trend up supp, go with 18ema on 1 min chart for trend up supp

(Jun 14-11:29) mike: The ES pulled back to 1094.00 and that brought in buying and the ES is up against major resistance short term. If 1102 is tested, it should set up a good shorting opportunity with a tight stop. A break/ hold under 1098.50-1098.00 turns trends down.

(Jun 14-11:32) mike: buying some puts up here

(Jun 14-11:35) mike: a 123 type top pattern can set up if 98 holds.

(Jun 14-11:50) mike: 98 on the es and 1870 on nq were resist on the way up, now is key supp, and 10300 dow cash -- lower lows if broken

(Jun 14-12:16) mike: the es spent very little time over 1100 - if exceeded/ held, then a push thru big resist possible , vulnerable under it

(Jun 14-12:38) mike: tug o war , but as long as they stay under 1100 its vulnerable / a short

(Jun 14-13:00) mike: After rejecting 1101.75 the ES spent very little time over the 1099.50 level and the NQ has been in steady downtrend since it topped out. The market is vulnerable and could test 1088 if the 1099.50-1100.00 is not exceeded today.

(Jun 14-13:02) mike: small supp at 94 level , 97.00-97.50 resist now

(Jun 14-13:11) mike: very fast moves, use wider stop, smaller size. 93-92 area key supp, must hold or test 88 area. will put audio on near 130pm, busy day

(Jun 14-13:29) mike: 96 is key to get over, also, acts like a good bid at 93-92. if short cover at least part in 93-92 zone

(Jun 14-13:49) mike: The ES tested the 1093-1092 area and reversed from there, keeping the market range bound. we have seen a few quick moves today, but unless the 1098 area is exceeded the market is vulnerable. If that's exceeded and held, then a decent short squeeze could occur. Favor short under 1098 for now.

(Jun 14-13:59) mike: stay with puts, and 94.00-94.50 is key

audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...

(Jun 14-14:17) mike: 92.50-93.00 is ky resist now

(Jun 14-14:26) mike: The ES reached 1088.00 and filled the gap on the daily chart, so if it can get over 1092-1093 and not reverse the range can continue. If it can not, then a drop towards 1085 then 1080.50-1080.00 is next.

(Jun 14-14:40) mike: pressured on under 90 now

(Jun 14-14:47) mike: the bulls can run this IF 92.00-93.00 is cleared/ held instead of rejection - 97-98 then resist- it would be a short if gets there and stalls out up there

audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...audio on...

(Jun 14-15:24) mike: very labored bounce, wedge break , sell under 94.00-94.50

(Jun 14-15:38) mike: small supp at 85.50, then 80.50-79.50

 

 

Friday - June 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 11-09:19) mike: es is 11 points under fair value, but bounces wont stick today

(Jun 11-10:06) mike: a top at 80 area, 7750 supp, then 1076.00-1075.50 transition/ pivotal zone

(Jun 11-10:15) mike: they need to stay over 80
(Jun 11-10:19) mike: must hold right here, or they top for now

(Jun 11-10:27) mike: dbl tops, they must stay over 80 or top

(Jun 11-10:29) mike: The lower open was reversed from just under the 1072.50 support and went right to the pivotal 1076.00 before pausing. When it was cleared the ES ran up to 1084.50 so far. The 1080-1079 area must hold or a high for the morning could be in place.

(Jun 11-10:36) mike: sell under 84
(Jun 11-10:37) mike: under 83, it shouldnt be exceeded if gong down here
(Jun 11-10:41) mike: 80-79 area should / must hold on this pullback. - needs to beak soon or no drop
(Jun 11-10:44) mike: needs to get over 83 soon

(Jun 11-10:51) mike: gonna break,
(Jun 11-10:55) mike: 81 is a short

(Jun 11-11:02) mike: The bounce was unable to hold and the ES dropped to 1078.00 so far. The 1081 area will be rejected on a bounce if a top is in place. The 1076 area is still key/ pivotal support that must hold.

(Jun 11-11:12) mike: 76.00 should give a bounce towards 79-80 at least, otherwise its trouble again and no 2 sided day.
(Jun 11-11:12) mike: 1 min chart 9 and 18 ema , like ebook on momentum moves
(Jun 11-11:14) mike: i'm not buying this, if they bounce it wont stick

(Jun 11-11:34) mike: watch 79.50-80.50 for reversal

(Jun 11-11:54) mike: they can trade in the morning range here for awhile, into early afternoon. so look at buying dips and selling a bounce when upside stalls out.

(Jun 11-12:00) mike: The ES dropped through 1076 for about 3 minutes and turned right back up, and then it held on a pullback. The bounces have not been able to hold, but unless that 1076 level is broken and not quickly reversed the market will be in a "buy the dip" mode to test the high or make a lower high before reversing.

(Jun 11-12:09) mike: the moves are labored and not holding. a little wedge here. trade small and scalp both sides so not to get chopped up

(Jun 11-12:25) mike: this wedge broke, a bounce to 78.50-79.00 a short per ebook

(Jun 11-12:33) mike: nq set up better but it was ''by the e-book'' second entry , thats resist now 1079 needs exceeded held to get out of trouble
(Jun 11-12:37) mike: its 1076 area thats holding this up. its a 2 way street until 1081 broken/ held or 1076 broken/ held

(Jun 11-13:05) mike: The ES bounced to 1080.75 and dropped back to 1076.50 and that area held again. The ES has traded back and forth for several hours as it has been stuck inside of the morning range. This is winding the market tight, so a breakout should have momentum if recent action is going to continue.

(Jun 11-13:16) mike: holding 81.00-80.50 is needed to keep uptrend going

(Jun 11-13:26) mike: no explosive move, nq hit a road block. if 80 isn't held/reversed, its not good

(Jun 11-13:48) mike: thats it for the upside, use a bounce to but puts , mkt making up for tiny Trin yest

(Jun 11-13:55) mike: a bounce that stalls about 1/3 of the way up should be a short

(Jun 11-14:03) mike: 79.50 was 1/3 retrace, a key to get over and hold, not reverse, to avoid drop -- 1830.50 on nq

(Jun 11-14:09) mike: we're still inside the morning range. a good bid on the drops. but bounces have no follow thru. -- a mkt to scalp or avoid the rest of the day, tho i have an odd feeling a good sized move could come last hour

(Jun 11-14:14) mike: The ES popped up to 1082.50 but didn't hold and came right back down to 1077.50. If the 1077.50-1076.50 zone is broken and not quickly reversed then the day will end on a down note, testing the lows at least. The 1080.50 level needs exceeded/ held to get upside going and avoid breaking down.

(Jun 11-14:22) mike: this 76 should break.
(Jun 11-14:25) mike: the NQ looks especially vulnerable unless 30-31 is exceeded,

(Jun 11-14:35) mike: thats as far as a bounce goes if they're going to make lower low, otherwise they end up chopping in this range

(Jun 11-14:41) mike: 1827 on nq and 1078 es key resist, lower lows if not exceeded. its a high school graduation night, i'm leaving in a few. have a great weekend. ''see'' ya monday morning

(Jun 11-14:54) mike: as soon as i left they breakout to upside. its quarterly expiration, if they want they could squeeze to over 84 but staying range bound best odds-- anyhow , careful in this. take care

 

 

Thursday - June 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 10-09:28) mike: 66 needs to hold to keep trend up

(Jun 10-09:44) mike: 66.50 is key supp

(Jun 10-10:07) mike: might be a top, 75 need hold

(Jun 10-10:17) mike: The market opened a lot higher and the ES U0 reached 1079.00 30 minutes in and has pulled back. If the 1075 area is exceeded, then we can get another push higher, but if they make a lower high and reverse then a top should be in place for the morning. If 1075 is not cleared then a morning high is in place.

(Jun 10-10:52) mike: unable to clear 75 resist , it must soon. 67.75 is the key supp to hold on a drop.

(Jun 10-11:00) mike: its dow 10100 now for supp - its still moving in 50 point increments , today high 10150 is resist
(Jun 10-11:08) mike: 74.50 now needs to hold , tepid break out higher

(Jun 10-11:37) mike: ran up, stalled, rounded top - 75 a sell area , stop just over 76.50

(Jun 10-11:42) mike: The 1075 level was exceeded, but the move stalled at 1076.50 and turned down. The Dow cash has been moving in 50 point increments, and off a 10150 high has been holding 10100, and if broken should drop to 10050 area.

(Jun 10-12:05) mike: pops are stalling, rolling over - our bearish action again. if they pop up, its a short down to 68-67 at least
(Jun 10-12:06) mike: audio i just a bit, see 68-67 first

(Jun 10-12:16) mike: if you held on to 1/2 of pts bought yesterday at this area, cover those,
(Jun 10-12:20) mike: if they pop up to the 73 area it should set up a nice short

(Jun 10-12:30) mike: resist here, that is right at 10100, if cleared then 76 could get a test . nq already made dbl top. so lots of stuff to get thru . the 68.50 was just 2 ticks over 68-67 key supp, also 60ema on 5 min chart at 1069 now.

(Jun 10-12:55) mike: The bounces are not sticking, but the 1068-1067 area has been holding as good support. Look for a bounce to fail under 1074 to be sold, and now 1067 must hold to avoid a deeper drop towards 1063 area.

(Jun 10-13:05) mike: these are not sticking,
(Jun 10-13:06) mike: i was focused on the mkt and forgot audio. will turn it on in about 5 min

(Jun 10-13:16) audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 10-14:13) mike: The 1067 area held and a bounce to 1075.50 failed. The ES needs to get over 1074 and not quickly reverse to avoid more downside, so short a bounce that fails near that area with a tight stop.

(Jun 10-14:18) mike: 1073 and 1811 nq were break levels, now resist

(Jun 10-14:26) mike: a better bounce that i thought, look to buy a dip near 73.50-73.0 if reversed

(Jun 10-14:36) mike: 74.50-74.00 trend supp now, needs to hold

(Jun 10-14:44) mike: The ES only stopped at 1074 for about 2 minutes, and made a new high. As long as the 1074 area is held the market is in buy the dip mode with the 1080.50-1082.00 area as next good resistance.

(Jun 10-14:49) mike: audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 10-15:34) mike: 80.00-79.50 needs to hold going in to the close or 76 is tested

(Jun 10-16:01) mike: small short to carry over, nq - it will be weakest on a drop
(Jun 10-16:02) mike: enjoy rest of your day

 

Wednesday - June 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 09-09:14) mike: 62.50 area is first support, then 56 area is a key supp. if 1068.50-1069.00 is exceeded, the 72 area will be a big test today. fed beige book this afternoon

(Jun 09-09:35) mike: 69 resist
(Jun 09-09:37) mike: 1068.50-1069.00 a top for drop to 63 area

(Jun 09-10:07) mike: if you sold resist , cover part on drop to 64-63 , its key supp

(Jun 09-10:23) mike: The higher open was reversed from the 1068.50-1069.00 resistance and dropped to the 1063.25 level which is now key support. As long as they stay over 1063, the market will be bullish and possibly get to the 1072.00-1072.50 zone, but if 1063 is broken then the move is over for awhile and selling bounces would be the better odds trade.
e
(Jun 09-10:36) mike: dbl top, fails to gather steam. buying a few puts on the pop to resist , still need break under 63 area

(Jun 09-10:42) mike: its obvious where the s/r is now. add 10000 and 9950 on dow, the top side good resist

(Jun 09-10:58) mike: 68.00-67.50 now supp, needs to hold,
(Jun 09-10:59) mike: 1072.00-1072.50 is next key resist area ,

(Jun 09-11:13) mike: The 1063.50 level was reversed and the ES almost the 1075.00-1075.50 zone. A pullback now needs to hold over the 1069.50-1068.50 area or a high will be in place.

(Jun 09-11:18) mike: 72 now must hold or we get a reversal and drop towards 69.

(Jun 09-11:30) mike: 1 min chart, the 18ema a trend guide - at 74.50 right now , trust until broken. next key area is 1080.50

(Jun 09-11:46) mike: topped
(Jun 09-11:46) mike: The ES only pulled back to the 1072 prior support before running up to 1077.75. The market is acting tired, so if 1072 is broken a top could be in place. The next good resistance is at 1080.50-1082.00 if 1077.75 is not the top for this move.

(Jun 09-11:55) mike: if 74 breaks , then trend up action is over. a lower high that reverses up here is a short. otherwise need to hold 74
(Jun 09-11:58) mike: that should be a high. short w/ tight stop, just a scalp
(Jun 09-12:02) mike: 75.75 shouldnt be exceeded, 74.25 supp to cover scalp
(Jun 09-12:05) mike: 76.25 nullifies pattern,
(Jun 09-12:08) mike: a bit of a breakdown, 75.00-75.50 now resist, . 72 is key supp still

(Jun 09-12:27) mike: The ES pulled back to 1073.50 and held so far, with 1072.50 now looking like key support. If the highs are tested and the market reverses then a high for the day could be in. However it has been trend-up and for now nothing bad happens unless 1072.50 area is not defended.

(Jun 09-12:40) mike: 72.50 held but they topped for now, add to puts near 75-76 if reached n rejected. audio on in about 5-10 minutes

(Jun 09-12:57) mike: audio on

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 09-13:00) mike: 75-76 was reached, if short take profits, 75 good resist. audio is on now

(Jun 09-14:08) mike: old 1072 back to being good resist now to sell against. 1067 and dow 10000 are key, must close over or its a bad pattern

(Jun 09-14:22) mike: a drop to 68-87 should hold here end of day , or the mkt gets hit hard again tomorrow or this afternoon

(Jun 09-14:36) mike: they shot higher from 67.50, thats where shorts are trapped, if cut thru then bears in control again and the 72 area is pivotal resistance, if held then 75 gets a test

(Jun 09-14:46) mike: hard to hold a 3rd , 4th time , not holding on bounces, careful long. keep puts for now

(Jun 09-14:53) mike: The 1072 area was broken and held on a bounce, and the ES dropped through the 1067 area. A bounce needs to clear 1072 and hold to avoid more downside as the rally has completely reversed course.

(Jun 09-15:01) mike: cover 1/2 of the puts here, near 1061 es or better
(Jun 09-15:04) mike: dow 9950 area needs to hold, and 1056 is a big cluster of supp on ES below. 63.50 then 67-68 is resist

(Jun 09-15:14) mike: if no bounce from 1056 area, then 1048.50 could be seen on this leg down.
(Jun 09-15:15) mike: 63.50 was on the button, thats now first key resist

(Jun 09-15:20) mike: 60 is trend resist. on these good moves, per e-book, the 9 and 18 ema on 1 min chart is a very good guide
(Jun 09-15:23) mike: if 54 is not held, then 48.50 would be next -- cover other 1/2 of puts if reached and we'll reassess. have a great rest of the day.
(Jun 09-15:26) mike: short covering bounce, dow cash moving in 50 point chunks, 9900 is key supp there, or 9850 would be next. watch 9950-ish for resist.

 

 

Tuesday - June 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)


(Jun 08-09:18) mike: 1056.25-1057.00 was sold overnight, and 1061 high was at a resist. upside is limited, those are real good / key resist areas

(Jun 08-09:41) mike: 1056.25-1057.00 1st key resist rejected, 1050 needs to hold now

(Jun 08-10:08) mike: The higher open was sold, peaking 1 tick under the 1056.25-1057.00 resistance on the ES and then it dropped to the 1046.50 support. If that 1056.25-1057.00 area is cleared, then 1061.00-1061.50 will be next and should be reversed if two-sided action is going to continue. If not cleared, and the 1046.50 area is broken then we get one last push lower towards 1038 before a decent reversal can occur.

(Jun 08-10:25) mike: 49 now resist, 1785 nq

(Jun 08-10:37) mike: bounce still fail. need to clear 1050 n hold over to get a move up going, , or bounce from 42 or 38 area
(Jun 08-10:41) mike: 42.50 key on this leg , but a bounce wont hold

(Jun 08-10:53) mike: It's another ugly start for the market, with bounces not sticking again. The 1038.50-1037.50 area should be in the cards before a decent rally can start. A hold over 1050, not another rejection, is needed to change the trends now.

(Jun 08-11:01) mike: a low could be in at 41.50, if 45 holds on a dip here and turns up,
(Jun 08-11:05) mike: 45.50 now must hold , it wont get far tho w/o nq joining the bid
(Jun 08-11:09) mike: no stick'em on bounces so until its changed sell all the bounces/ old 1048 supp now good resist

(Jun 08-11:20) mike: dbl bottom , but need to hold over 48
(Jun 08-11:24) mike: 48 held but if 48 is broken, then 45.50 is good supp now

(Jun 08-11:29) mike: The market double bottomed and the ES ran up from 1041.25 to 1052.75 as it finally shows signs of life. The 1048 area needs to hold now, or the 1045.50-1045.00 area would need to hold to avoid more trouble.

(Jun 08-11:40) mike: stall at 60ema on 5 min chart, need to push thru 54.50
(Jun 08-11:43) mike: 48.50-47.50 needs to hold on pullback here, another failed rally otherwise

(Jun 08-12:00) mike: 2 sided action if 55 is broken here - 50.50-50.00 now key supp. 58 a good resist t sell

(Jun 08-12:25) mike: needs to stay over 50.50 and get running up. acting poorly again

(Jun 08-12:34) mike: 51 hld, needs to get going soon. if this 1050.50 isnt held, that breaks them dwn hard
(Jun 08-12:37) mike: The rally stalled out after reaching 1058. As long as 1050.50 holds, no damage done but if broken they get hit hard. If 1058 is cleared, then 1061.00-1061.50 will be next and should be reversed if two-sided action is going to continue.

(Jun 08-12:45) mike: sell nq on bounce, under 1792 its vulnerable

(Jun 08-12:52) mike: 92 resist on nq now, es needs to stay over 55 to test the high

(Jun 08-13:00) mike: they are struggling a bit , but mkt will be ok unless 1051 is broken for now
(Jun 08-13:05) mike: 123 top on dow. that should be it

(Jun 08-13:10) mike: The ES bounced to 1056.25 and was rejected while the Dow made a double top so that should be it for the bounce. The 1051.00-1050.50 area needs to hold to avoid another drop which could be sharp.

(Jun 08-13:16) mike: 53.00-53.50 resist now. 1788 on nq

(Jun 08-13:22) mike: audio on wednesday and thursday - we have a top pattern and drop to good support/.. if 51 breaks, they could drop to 48-47 and turn up, but if not then test/ break the low is possible to end this move

(Jun 08-13:32) mike: pressure on under 50.00-50.50 now
(Jun 08-13:36) mike: if dow cash goes thru 9800 then i think we will see 1038.50 or so before a decent low in place

(Jun 08-13:52) mike: 38.50 next key supp area, 48 now key resist. 1 min chart, 18ema trend guide

(Jun 08-14:01) mike: there are shorts covering 43-41 area. a scalp long on a test/ reversal. a decent low shouldn't be too far away

(Jun 08-14:39) mike: 56 AREA TUFF all day. supp at 51.50 now

(Jun 08-14:49) mike: 53 needs to hold now, that resistance is top of range 56 to 43

(Jun 08-15:06) mike: if 53.50 is cleared / held they close in decent shape and low will be in place for a day or so.
(Jun 08-15:08) mike: if not, still in vulnerable position , especialy a break/ close under 1050

(Jun 08-15:29) mike: if they get to 52 its a buy, even to 48 area its a buy with tight stop. a bottom should be close, at least a decent rebound. a close up here looks bullish

(Jun 08-15:51) mike: 63 is good resist, a pullback from there likely in the morn. 1058 old high now trend support

(Jun 08-15:55) mike: have a good rest of the day. 63 will be good resit, 58 supp needs to hold into close

 

Monday - June 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 07-09:28) mike: 69-70 area sold , good resist early

(Jun 07-10:02) mike: 66 need to hold if double bottom is our low

(Jun 07-10:16) mike: top for now at 60ema on 5 min chart, 68 needs to hold or more dip

(Jun 07-10:24) mike: The ES popped up to 1068.25, just under the 1068.50-1069.00 resistance zone, and then dropped 7.50 points to test Friday's low before turning up. The bounce ran out of steam at the 60ema on the 5 minute chart, but it will take a break/ hold back under 1067-1066 to turn the trends back down.

(Jun 07-10:29) mike: sell a bounce under 70-71 area, that's key resist now. nq is acting weaker since topping, a better short

(Jun 07-10:37) mike: 67 resist now, 1834-1836 on nq is key area now

(Jun 07-10:42) mike: price pattern is not good, 60ema on 5 min chart will be key resist today. a bounce to a lower high that reverses will set up 123 top. we had a small one when 1070 was reversed at 10;26 am

(Jun 07-10:49) mike: that 62 needs t hold, if they break that and dont turn right back up then 58 area is next

(Jun 07-10:56) mike: After turning down from the 60ema on the 5 minute chart the ES couldn't stay over 1067 and fell to test the 1060.50 level. The bounces are shorts under 1068 now, and the 1058 area needs to hold or the 1052 zone could be seen on this leg down.

(Jun 07-10:58) mike: 62 now resist, use 1 min chart, 9/18 ema trend guide
(Jun 07-10:59) mike: if you still have the 1/2 put position on, its closed out here

(Jun 07-11:08) mike: 58 supp reached, but 62-63 still needs to clear/ hold to change trend dn action

(Jun 07-11:13) mike: just 62 now key resist, 1820 area on NQ

(Jun 07-11:27) mike: morning low, a decent bounce possible

(Jun 07-11:35) mike: no gusto on the bounce,
(Jun 07-11:36) mike: es needs to stay over 62 to avoid test of low
(Jun 07-11:40) mike: 67.75 is a key resist area on this bounce , if 62.50-62.00 area holds

(Jun 07-11:55) mike: the bounces just can not hold. i still like shorts on bounces. if 62 breaks, lows could go next

(Jun 07-12:00) mike: The 1058.50 area was broken but quickly reversed and the ES moved up to 1065.00 so far. The 1062 area needs to continue to hold, otherwise they could revisit the lows. But, as long as that 1062 area holds, a test of the 1067.50 and possibly the 1070 area could be in the cards before selling comes in.

(Jun 07-12:08) mike: 65 is now support. needs to hold over it

(Jun 07-12:32) mike: a pop tp 65.50-66.50 is a short.- 2 sided day, but bounces no hold

(Jun 07-12:44) mike: 66 rejected, its resist , scalp short only, its getting tricky this afternoon. i'll put on audio in about 10 minutes ,

(Jun 07-12:47) mike: The 1067.50 level was tested and the market pulled back. The action is a bit tricky this afternoon, but it looks like the market is vulnerable to more selling unless 1066 is exceeded and held on a pullback.

(Jun 07-12:51) mike: audio on

audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

(Jun 07-13:31) mike: must stay over 66, or a reversal

(Jun 07-13:42) mike: a pop up from here to 67.00-67.50 a good short

(Jun 07-13:55) mike: 64 then 66 is good resist now , a good reward/risk short if reached and move stalls

(Jun 07-14:03) mike: The 1066 level was broken and held on a little bounce, and that has been pivotal so look for a shorting opportunity if that is tested and the move stalls/ reverses.

(Jun 07-14:21) mike: if 62.50 not cleared/ held, then 58.00/57.50 will be tested.... or 9900 on dow cash,

audio...audio... audio... audio... audio... audio...

 

 

Friday - June 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 04-09:16) mike: 90.50-91.00 now key resist. bounces wont stick, 1068.50-1068.00 key support
(Jun 04-09:20) mike: cover 1/2 of puts on open if you bought 2 days ago

(Jun 04-10:03) mike: a bounce high 25 minutes in , need to break/ hold 1087 n hold to get upside going
(Jun 04-10:05) mike: The big gap down open was bought at the 1080.50-1079.50 support zone and bounced to 1086.25 so far. The 1087 level needs to be cleared/ held to get a decent bounce going, but 1090.50-1091.50 is good resistance if they get that far.

(Jun 04-10:13) mike: quick moves -- a rejection near 86.50 - 87.00 is a short. a reversal up from 82 a scalp long
(Jun 04-10:17) mike: 85 should/ must hold

(Jun 04-10:22) mike: 85 held, its a key supp now -
(Jun 04-10:28) mike: sell any longs 88 if tested , stalling a bit
(Jun 04-10:33) mike: 88 rejected soundly sell against that /

(Jun 04-10:38) mike: The moves are fast and choppy but the 1088 level was rejected and 1085 was also defended. For now 1088 must be exceeded and hold 1087 to avoid more trouble. The 1085 area needs to hold or pressure would be on.

(Jun 04-10:47) mike: this pattern is not a good one, even tho a bounce , 88 is a key resist

(Jun 04-10:57) mike: 84.50-85.00 resist, press on under that

(Jun 04-11:10) mike: 85 rejected , stair step down now
(Jun 04-11:13) mike: The ES failed at 1088 and broke 1085 on the drop. The bounce was rejected at 1085 and that needs to be cleared to avoid a test/ break of the lows.

(Jun 04-11:16) mike: that is important supp, 10050 dow cash and 1082 on ES must hold or they drop towards 78-77 area or more

(Jun 04-11:21) mike: 82.50 now good resist
(Jun 04-11:26) mike: lock in partial profit if short at 78-77 zone. or trail

(Jun 04-11:34) mike: 68.50 is possible on this leg if they stay under 80
(Jun 04-11:38) mike: 82.50 needs cleared, but a quick trade on long side is 79-77 is tested/ reversed

(Jun 04-11:58) mike: they need to get over 81.50 and hold that on a dip to avoid another drop

(Jun 04-12:02) mike: The ES bounced off of 1077 support but it failed again. The market will stay in trouble unless 1081.50 is exceeded and held on a pullback. The 1068.50-1068.00 area is the next key area below.

(Jun 04-12:13) mike: should make another push higher if 76 holds on a small dip

(Jun 04-12:31) mike: that 78 area now key resist.
(Jun 04-12:34) mike: nq weaker, 1860-61 is good resist now

(Jun 04-12:43) mike: 76.5 r now

(Jun 04-12:57) mike: it looks like 1080 es, 1860 nq are needed to break over n hold to get a decent rebound

(Jun 04-13:16) mike: The ES dropped to 1073.75 and then the bounce failed again under the 1080 resistance. It will take a move over 1080 to erase downside momentum as its trend down so far.

(Jun 04-13:28) mike: i need to leave for 30 min. this bounce should fail under 76.50-77.00 else a low could be in for a bit

(Jun 04-13:43) mike: bounce still failed. i'll turn on audio and see if this trend move continues or reverses.

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...audio...

(Jun 04-14:25) mike: audio now off. resist at 75 area must be cleared to get out of trouble
(Jun 04-14:28) mike: 68.50-68.00 is a key supp to end the week, it must hold/ reverse to avoid a bad close

(Jun 04-14:36) mike: they missed 68.50 by 2 ticks. covering shorts on a test of that 68.75, it should reverse fast then fail
(Jun 04-14:40) mike: they are still a short unless 72.50-73.00 exceeded , they dont want to bounce much this time
(Jun 04-14:44) mike: 68.50 supp nailed, 64.50-64.00 would be next. , have a great weekend, and we'll get em on monday.

(Jun 04-14:50) mike: 7050 resist now

(Jun 04-15:03) mike: 68.00 good resist now
(Jun 04-15:09) mike: 68.25 reversed once. that is a key area for a weekly close. 1040's is possible if close under it
(Jun 04-15:09) mike: enjoy the weekend

(Jun 04-15:58) mike: if short from well above keep part over w/e, a small position

 

 

Thursday - June 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 03-09:20) mike: fade the gap up open, cover / buy first good drop 98-97 supp 1

(Jun 03-09:56) mike: ISM number in 3 min

(Jun 03-10:02) mike: thts it esp if 1102 breaks
(Jun 03-10:07) mike: those highs at very key resist. a bigger brake if 98-97 is broken
(Jun 03-10:10) mike: if 1101.50 is broken, the upside pattern breaks and should give a sharp drop. a 123 top could set up here
(Jun 03-10:16) mike: got the 123 top, 04 shouldnt be exceeded now. scalp trades on these while range bound

(Jun 03-10:20) mike: The 1103.50 resistance on the ES was sold on the opening 5 minutes and dropped 4.25 points to 1099.25 before bouncing to 1105.25. A 123 top formed from 1104 and the market is a short unless that is exceeded/ held. The 1098-1097 area should/ must hold to avoid trouble.

(Jun 03-10:22) mike: 01.50 resist now

(Jun 03-10:33) mike: 97 gave feeble bounce, resist at 1100.50-1101.50 now

(Jun 03-10:58) mike: The ES dropped to 1096.50 and turned back up but the bounce doesn't have much gusto yet, and needs to get over 1101.50 and stick to avoid another push lower.

(Jun 03-11:03) mike: poked over 1101.50 by 1 tick... it should roll over unless cleared soon
(Jun 03-11:08) mike: no reversal now unless 1101.50-1101.00 breaks,, a dbl top at resist possible. but no real damage done unless 97 breaks

(Jun 03-11:22) mike: The ES took out 1101.50 but the 1103 area is still hard to get through and hold. Another test of 1097 will need to be reversed again, otherwise the trends roll over.

(Jun 03-11:29) mike: a test of the 1101.50 should be sold -- but if staying with head under water at 1100, pressure on

(Jun 03-11:42) mike: rejection just under 01.50 but very choppy. if 98-87 holds, a decent bounce can occur

(Jun 03-11:54) mike: in a 3 point range, just sell the pops today under 1103,
(Jun 03-11:56) mike: 97-96 is cover part zone

(Jun 03-12:08) mike: 98.50-99.50 now good resist. /

(Jun 03-12:16) mike: After rejecting 1103 and pulling back to 1098.50, the 1101 area turned into a lid and rolled over. If they get back to 1098.50-1099.50 the move should fail. Shorting bounces that stall/ reverse under 1101 are shorts today.

(Jun 03-12:18) mike: 96.50 trend dn resist

(Jun 03-12:24) mike: 1091.25-1090.75 must hold or 88-87 is in the cards before a rally attempt, it won't stick tho. that .28 closing Trin was blowoff top indication, and lots of trapped longs above

(Jun 03-12:30) mike: 1091.25-1090.75 take profits on shorts, at least part. still have aug puts, will add if a decent bounce sets up a good short. missed adding earlier

(Jun 03-12:49) mike: The ES fell to the 1091.25-1090.75 zone and turned up from 1090.25 low so far. The 1098-1099 area still should be hard to get through if tested. If the lows at support are broken, then the 1088-1087 area would be a "must hold" or a revisit of the 1080.50 area on ES and 10100 on Dow cash could be seen.

(Jun 03-13:25) mike: both 60 and 20ema at 95.50 there, now key

(Jun 03-13:35) mike: 93.5 should hold to get a rally going

(Jun 03-13:43) mike: If the ES can hold the 1094 area on a dip then we could see one more good run higher. For now as long as the 1091.25-1090.75 zone holds the market will hold together in front of tomorrow's employment report.

(Jun 03-13:59) mike: that 97-98 is the key to getting out of trouble. careful long

(Jun 03-14:11) mike: should get to 1101ish

(Jun 03-14:21) mike: The ES pulled back to 1094.25 then took off to 1099.50. This bounce from the key 1091.25-1090.75 zone has been ragged but as long as the 1097 area is held the trends stay to upside.

(Jun 03-14:29) mike: if 97 breaks then a bounce should fail at/under 1099.

(Jun 03-14:47) mike: 99.50 area needs to hold here it l
(Jun 03-14:49) mike: that 1101.50 is key, as is 10250 dow cash

(Jun 03-14:55) mike: 99.50 supp needs to hold or change in trend, -- a hold over 10250 on dow cash needed to push higher

(Jun 03-15:00) mike: 1105.75-1106.25 is a big cluster of resist to get thru. dips have higher lows so 99.50-99.00 needs to hold to have a chance to get there or

(Jun 03-15:10) mike: The 1097 level held on a pullback and 1102 was reached, but now the 1099 area must hold to keep the run-up going. There is a lot of resistance around 1103.50-1106.25 band. If 1099 is broken, the market could get hit if unable to get back over 1101.50.

(Jun 03-15:14) mike: this is a big wedge pattern, a bounce to 1101.50 or lower should fail.

(Jun 03-15:25) mike: that 97 still key area. there is employment data in morning. this bounce started a bit early so should fail

(Jun 03-15:35) mike: 1103.50 was good resist coming in to the day. its still key, bounce failed just under it. 05.50-06.25 resist if 1103 exceeded- a squeeze towards 1110-1111 if they get wings . its so choppy tht 1100.50 is likely

(Jun 03-15:40) mike: 1101.50 needs to hold now to keep the trend up, will do audio tomorrow, was very active buy day

(Jun 03-15:47) mike: 1103.50 a tuff level, have a good rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday - June 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 02-10:40) mike: 77-78 sold, 72 then 63-62
(Jun 02-10:41) mike: 75.50 small resist now. econ data 10am, 63-62 area possible if 75.50 not cleared/ held
(Jun 02-10:41) mike: if short cover part at 72 r better, re short a bounce, 63-63 next

(Jun 02-10:41) mike: The higher open was reversed at the 1077.00-1078.00 resistance zone on the ES and it dropped to 1071.00 before turning back up. The 1082.25-1082.25 area needs to be cleared and not quickly reversed to get the trends to turn. If 1077 don't hold then the 1074.50-1074.00 area is next and a key support now.

(Jun 02-10:41) mike: 77 is now key supp, 80.75= 60ema on 5 min chart and bigger trend resist there
(Jun 02-10:43) mike: wedge too, a short w/ tight stop

(Jun 02-10:50) mike: thats a top for awhile it looks like, 74.50-74.00 small supp. --
(Jun 02-10:54) mike: IF they pop up to a lower high, then reverse on the 2 min chart, its a 123 type top and a good reshort

(Jun 02-11:18) mike: The ES held the 1074.50 area and ran up to the 1082.25-1082.75 zone. The 1075 level must hold on a pullback, otherwise a bearish pattern will break down.

(Jun 02-11:30) mike: another rejection of resist, the 79 area now important supp,

(Jun 02-11:41) mike: its been a grind higher, but trends dont roll over unless 1079 ES, 10100 on dow cash, 1852 on the NQ are broken/ and not reversed quickly reversed back up,

(Jun 02-12:03) mike: The market has grinded higher since the low made 25 minutes in, but the upside is losing momentum and is not far from a pivotal 1088.25-1089.00 zone on the ES. The key support is at 1079 on ES, 10100 on Dow cash, and 1852 on the NQ. If broken, then a high for the day could be in place and then 1074.50-1074.00 would be the key support.

(Jun 02-13:03) mike: 1088.25-1089.00

audio...audio...audio...audio...audio......audio...

(Jun 02-13:28) mike: 85.50 es, 1863 nq good resist now, audio is off for now

(Jun 02-13:33) mike: The ES rejected 1087 and backed off. The market is vulnerable unless 1085.50 on ES and 1863 on NQ are both exceeded. If that's the case, then one more push towards 1088-1089 should be reversed unless this range is going to extend towards 1101-1103 again.

(Jun 02-14:10) mike: if short cover some at least at 82.75 or better . on audio again in a few minutes

(Jun 02-14:24) mike: 80 area should give a bounce if mkt is not going to nose dive. re short if a failure under 83.50, audio in 5 min here
(Jun 02-14:26) mike: audio is on

audio...audio...audio....audio....audio....audio....audio....

(Jun 02-15:08) mike: audio off , its trend up over 89.00 up to 93.50-94.50 zone

(Jun 02-15:17) mike: The ES took out the resistance after reversing off 10100 on the Dow cash and rallied to the 1093.50 resistance so far. A pullback must hold 1089-1088, the trends are up and only reversed if 1089-1088 area is broken.

(Jun 02-15:19) mike: 91 needs to hold or it will look toppy.

(Jun 02-15:38) mike: buying a small position in august puts

 

 

Tuesday - June 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Jun 01-09:17) mike: 84.00-84.50 resist/ gap fill on daily chart

(Jun 01-09:52) mike: ism index top of the hour , 84.00gap fill resist , 1080 needs to hold to avoid reversal

(Jun 01-10:10) mike: old 87.50-88.00 a big hurdle to get over.

(Jun 01-10:21) mike: The ES gapped down on the open and that was reversed and after breaking 1080 that area held on a pullback. The 1084.50 area needs to hold to keep the trends up. The 1095.50-1096.25 zone is the next good resistance.

(Jun 01-10:34) mike: 9 and 18ema on 1 min chart is trend supp , a top here likely

(Jun 01-10:46) mike: 1088.00-1087.50 is pivotal, needs to hold there

(Jun 01-11:09) mike: The move stalled out after 1094.50 was rejected, and it looks like the 1088.00-1087.50 area is pivotal. If held, a bounce that fails near 1092 should be sold if the market is going to return to its weak status.

(Jun 01-11:18) mike: 88.50-89.25 shouldn't be exceeded/ held if going lower

(Jun 01-11:49) mike: The 1088.00-1087.50 area was broken and a bounce rejected 1090 and turned back down. The 1080 area was aggressively bought this morning, and if broken then the 1074.50-1073.50 area could be tested today.

(Jun 01-12:31) mike: i'm not feeling well at all. need to take a break. my apologies. i'll make it up for you.

(Jun 01-14:41) mike: pressure on under 88. IF exceeded, the 92.50-94.00 a sell zone , a 2-sided day, 83-82 must hold on a drp


(Jun 01-15:01) mike: The ES bounced to 1092.50 after the last update and then fell to 1081.75. The bounce couldn't stick. Unless the ES can get over 1088-1089 it is vulnerable and still could test the 1074 area if the 1080 area is not defended.

Due to illness there probably will not be an update tonight.

(Jun 01-15:13) mike: scalp longs if 82 tested / reversed

(Jun 01-15:21) mike: no reversal, stay w/ shorts. have a good rest of the day. hope to use audio if back up to par tomorrow.

 

I was out for several days for dental surgery so I did not get Mike's daily log for those days. I'm sorry for the inconvenience. ~ Julie

 

Tuesday - May 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 25-09:14) mike: a decent bounce won't be able to hold today. 1040.75 is Feb low

(May 25-09:27) mike: 1050-1051 area is first good resist

(May 25-09:48) mike: 43.75 now needs to hold on a dip

(May 25-10:04) mike: 46 now good supp 54-55 r
(May 25-10:08) mike: top in
(May 25-10:10) mike: that 1048 is a key supp , must hold or bigger drop
(May 25-10:13) mike: a wedge pattern again too, so a bounce that reverses near 51-52 should get sold

(May 25-10:21) mike: a better bounce than normal. any way the pops are like yesterday early, run up then pull back. those are shorts. on a pullback, 1048 needs to hold now

(May 25-10:25) mike: The big gap down open continued lower for about 12 minutes and then turned up. The action is a bit like yesterday, and now 1048 on the ES needs to hold to avoid rolling over. The 1057.50-1058.50 area is next resistance.

(May 25-10:33) mike: 48 held but they need to get over 52 and not reverse to avoid a down move

(May 25-11:09) mike: that 1045 area is good support, mkt had good buying come in and a pullback can be bought near 52-51 roughly. sprints higher still should give several pts pullback after a stall like this

(May 25-11:16) mike: if you bought that, keep a tight stop and scalp out near 54

(May 25-11:24) mike: The ES broke 1048 but only went to 1045.50 before turning back up. The market is trying to hang in there and not fall apart, but the sprints to the upside are setting up good shorting opportunities. The 1045 area needs to be defended on pullback otherwise the market could begin to unwind.

(May 25-11:37) mike: short bounces that poke up to 53-54 , or under , mkt in trouble if can not break/ hold over 54 now

(May 25-11:45) mike: just missed 53 before pulling back. to stay out of trouble 50.00-49.50 need hold

(May 25-11:59) mike: 54.00-53.50 supp now,

(May 25-12:12) mike: sprint t o higher high sold again. like yesterday. a break of 54.50-54.00 would mean things change to down

(May 25-12:30) mike: things changed, 1050 is a ''must hold''. like yesterday, a wedge pattern again too
(May 25-12:35) mike: 54.50 resist now

(May 25-12:55) mike: 51-50 area is pivotal from this morning / heavily traded too. if the mkt is going to hold together and try to bounce, that needs to hold. even then this bounce will likely do the same, burn ut and reverse unless it get over 1059

(May 25-13:06) mike: a break could be hard , wedge

(May 25-13:16) mike: The ES made a little double top at 1058.50-1058.75 and also broke another wedge pattern so the bounces are shorting opportunities down to the 1045 area which should hold if the market is going to avoid a bad close.

(May 25-13:23) mike: 54.00-54.50 is bounce resist.

(May 25-13:34) mike: that 54 area looks like its key for now. if unable to push thru that and hold the gain, the longs should get antse to get out

(May 25-13:49) mike: 52.50-53.00 would be a good resist,

(May 25-14:19) mike: 49 area was well bid , the mkt has thrashed around, but a dip should hold 53.50 if going hiher, 51.50 at worst, 49 would be a break down area.

(May 25-14:28) mike: 54.50-54.00 should / must hold on a pullback

(May 25-14:39) mike: decent bounce but topped it loks

(May 25-14:43) mike: wrong on the top, watch 62 for reversal, trend up over 54.50

(May 25-14:51) mike: 58 area now support and should hold , if not held 54.50 would be next.

(May 25-15:02) mike: The ES got its footing around 1049 and took out the 1058 area. That needs to hold or the 1054.50-1054.00 pivotal area would be next and it must hold.

(May 25-15:04) mike: need to hold 60.50-60.00 or pressure would be on

(May 25-15:07) mike: we had a gap day low made 12 min into trading, so if they stay over 62 and keep trend up then the high could be made in last 15 min of stock trading

(May 25-15:13) mike: 66.00-66.50 was a fixed supp, now looks like good resist to sell

(May 25-15:23) mike: should test 1070
(May 25-15:25) mike: gone this far the gap may as well fill / better fill.

(May 25-15:33) mike: its still trend up unless 68 breaks and not quickly reversed back up

(May 25-15:42) mike: 68 was quickly reversed, but this move now needs to stay over 71 or ts over

(May 25-15:51) mike: a close over 71 will be a plus for this reversal day, but if not it could be like the rally from 51.25 to 88.75, and fail badly
(May 25-15:53) mike: audio tomorrow, have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Monday - May 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 24-09:16) mike: 1071.50-1070.50 was globex low, a bottom, then 1076.75-1075.75 was pivotal on the way up, it needs to hold on drop

(May 24-10:03) mike: 1076.75-1075.75 held, but its a scalp long only, shorts look better on pops
(May 24-10:06) mike: 79 needs to hold now

(May 24-10:14) mike: they need to stay over 1080 to keep the upside intact here
(May 24-10:19) mike: The ES dropped to the pivotal 1076.75-1075.75 zone and turned up. The bounce had trouble holding until 10am and now the ES needs to get over the 1087.75-1088.75 to avoid another pullback. The 1080 area needs to hold to keep the uptrends intact.

(May 24-10:28) mike: must hold over 82.00-81.50 now or a reversal could occur

(May 24-10:42) mike: sell resist tight stop, a scalp
(May 24-10:43) mike: 84.50-84.00 s

(May 24-10:47) mike: scalp out of part ,
(May 24-10:47) mike: trail stp on rest

(May 24-10:55) mike: The 1087.75-1088.75 zone was tested and from 1087.00 the ES dropped to 1082 so far. It looks like a two-sided day, and a drop must not break the pivotal 1076.75-1075.75 zone, or we see the 1068 area once again. However, if 1087.75-1088.75 area is exceeded then the 1093.50-1094.00 area would be a good reversal area.

(May 24-11:07) mike: a little bit after noon i'll put audio on for a bit, and later this afternoon if action dictates. . will do sooner on wednsday

(May 24-11:17) mike: upside sure looks limited, if they pop back towards 83.5-84.00 and stall its a short

(May 24-11:41) mike: careful w/ short here , mktt ok unless 80 breaks

(May 24-12:00) mike: The ES pulled back to 1080.25 and held there about 15 minutes before pushing higher. The action is choppy and range bound and has been a scalper's market so look to be a buyer as long as the 1080 area is defended. Also, the sprint's to the upside are scalp shorts when the move stalls a bit then begins to turn down.

(May 24-12:08) mike: 86.50-86.00 area should hold, then 1093.50-1094.00 is next resist.

(May 24-12:21) mike: support broken and 87.75 is a key resist. may have topped, audio on i need bout 5 min here

mike: AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO....

(May 24-13:19) mike: The market is tired and ready to roll over again. A bounce that fails near the highs, or lower, should be sold. If 1084 breaks then a wedge breaks and a bounce should then fail.

(May 24-13:27) mike: they reversed at lower high, but careful this chop
(May 24-13:28) mike: can eat up the account getting whipped around.
(May 24-13:28) mike: for scalpers or swing trades.

(May 24-13:39) mike: now it looks like upside is over , wedges broken too, nq weaker if they run up and stall 1 minute its a short

(May 24-13:52) mike: if 1080 is't held, a trading range out of the picture today
(May 24-13:53) mike: 84 area now good resist

(May 24-14:14) mike: a key area, need to hold 83 on a dip here to avoid roll over

(May 24-14:40) mike: buy 82-81 zone on reversal, or sell 84.50--85.00 the rest of the day. a tight stop on either. or wait for better action tomorrow if not a scalper
(May 24-14:42) mike: odds favor a break dn, if they pop it should be sold

(May 24-14:55) mike: 8200-82.50 resist ,

(May 24-15:03) mike: 76-75 should b seen , or more

(May 24-15:13) mike: 79.50-80.25 r

(May 24-15:29) mike: turned from 80.00, need to get over especially if 78 breaks here late

(May 24-15:59) mike: 1071.50-1070.50 Need to hold on close

 

 

 

Friday - May 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

May 21, 2010 9:14 mike: 1062.50-1064.00 initial support is now initial resistance

May 21, 2010 10:09 mike: 18 ema on 1 min chart has been the trend support, trend up unless/ until broken 1072.75 area now -- 1081.25-1082.25 important resist

May 21, 2010 10:14 mike: top , a test of high should be sold

(May 21-10:23) mike: The ES gapped down below the 1056 low and turned up and rallied 28+ points so far to 1079.50. A pullback needs to hold the 1062 area now to avoid a test of the lows. A two-sided day is likely today so both sides should give opportunities.

(May 21-10:33) mike: 71.00-71.50 is pivotal resist , needs a move over n not reject it to reassert upside

(May 21-10:43) mike: if it can't hold these gains, back to downtrends

(May 21-10:51) mike: no follow thru on bounce, upside already +28 pts , 10d avg range 25 pts, 3d avg range 27 pts

May 21, 2010 11:10 mike: 60ema on 5 min at 77.50
May 21, 2010 11:33 mike: 1087.75-1088.75 could be tested if they can rally one more time , 79-78 supp must hold or no go,

(May 21-11:35) mike: 79 held , nq leading keep eye on it too

(May 21-11:46) mike: 1087.75-1088.75 hit, 84 is supp now
(May 21-11:49) mike: ii must leave for 30 min ,

(May 21-12:17) mike: my apologies, had emergency to tend to. 87.75 resist rejected, it looks like 1180.00-1079.50 is key supp, and a test of 87.00-87.50 that stalls is a short

(May 21-12:28) mike: tigt stop on short
(May 21-12:29) mike: 84.50 needs to break, scalp trade

(May 21-12:35) mike: 84.50 now resist

(May 21-12:46) mike: losing momentum, this a test of mkt strength,/ weakness as these patterns were leading to drops all week . extreme oversold, and reversal from 3 ticks over the major 1050.50-1049.50zone gave good rally, but tuckered out. 82-81 holds, or topped

(May 21-13:13) mike: 82 resist , , will reverse if going dn

(May 21-13:29) mike: dow cash trying to hold 10100, mkt acting like all week, failed rally . not wild about long side yet , up here, selling the bounces under 83-84 area

(May 21-13:38) mike: fyi, next week i plan to do audio updates monday afternoon, a part of tues and wednesday depending on mkt action. however to avoid burn out i dont want a fixed schedule, that happened 1 other time. better to come on if i see something ready to set up. and post alert in this box i'm using audio.

(May 21-13:52) mike: poked into 83-84, tgt stop, a dip should hold 80.00-79.50 ,
(May 21-13:54) mike: scalp out , or keep very tgt stop

(May 21-14:07) mike: 84 has been trouble today. still not crazy about buying up here, rally very extended now. 77.00-76.50 next key supp

(May 21-14:18) mike: 75 supp, a bounce to 78-79 a short on a stall

(May 21-14:27) mike: a close under 75 is bearish, its a pivotal area as is 10100 dow cash . pressure will be on if broken

(May 21-14:45) mike: its bearish under 80, no reason to but fri afternoon

(May 21-14:50) mike: 75.00-76.00 reshort
(May 21-14:51) mike: 72.50-72.00 a small supp, need dn turn soon here

(May 21-15:05) mike: if they test 1072-1071 , or a bit higher, it should reverse if a bottom is in , has been a stair step down so 1080 still a important resist

(May 21-15:31) mike: no more trades, bounce still no stick so not the better side. have a great w/e and will talk to you monday

 

 

Thursday - May 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 20-09:47) mike: need to get over 93 on ES and 1838 nq and not quickly reverse to get a low in for a bit, a bounce will be sold 1198-1100 key resist

(May 20-10:19) mike: The ES gapped down 21 points, bounced from just over 1085 support area, then rolled over again. There should be resistance at the 1088-1089 area. But, the 1073-1071 area could be seen and unless the 1092-1093 area is reached, that area is possible before buying comes in.

(May 20-10:26) mike: 81.00-81.50 good resist now

(May 20-10:49) mike: 3 tops at 85, need to get over n hold to get ou of trouble

(May 20-11:11) mike: need to stay over 83, if that breaks, then a bounce after the break should not stick

(May 20-11:21) mike: The ES dropped to 1074.50 and bounced to 1187.00 so far. If the lows are tested, we should get a bounce but the market is still vulnerable under the 1087 level.

(May 20-11:31) mike: as long as 1181 holds , the mkt will not fall apart again. if it is broken, then testing low is possible. good 2-sided action, so dips are buying opportunities but don't get married to that side, as there is a lot of resist to get thru. 1195-98 could be seen IF early highs are not rejected

(May 20-11:46) mike: a bit of a wedge, 1086.00-1085.50 needs to hold now

(May 20-11:58) mike: 86 wedge break area resist now

(May 20-12:14) mike: IF U SOLD 86 AREA, trail stop on 1/2, exit part at 83 or better
(May 20-12:15) mike: ebook ''wedge break, 2nd entry'' exactly
(May 20-12:17) mike: 78.25 small supp, take profit and look for re short.
(May 20-12:17) mike: i'll be audio in a bit , when slows a bit

(May 20-12:25) mike: 82.50 - needs to stay under, or bounce back

(May 20-12:29) mike: The ES went to 089.50 and formed a wedge pattern, then the bounce after the break returned to 1086 breakdown level and dropped 6 + points to 1079.50. The ES needs to get over 1083 and hold over it to get out of down trends for a bit.

(May 20-12:46) mike: audio in bout 10 min , 78.25 held and now good supp/ key supp

(May 20-13:03) mike: 5 min audio, need to dbl check a few things
(May 20-13:09) mike: The bounce failed under 1083 and the ES dropped to the 1072-1071 zone before reversing. That 1083 area is still resistance to clear to get a break from the selling for a while.

(May 20-13:12) mike:
AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO....AUDIO

(May 20-14:01) mike: The ES sprinted higher pretty fast and took out 1083 on the wat to 1087.75. That should be hard to get thru, and the market still vulnerable unless it is cleared. A bottom at 1072-1071 should be reversed unless we are headed towards 1050 or lower.

(May 20-14:04) mike: 83 resist now

 

 

Wednesday - May 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 19-09:24) mike: If 1107.00-1106.50 is reached, it will set up a trade from long side if quickly reversed .

(May 19-09:54) mike: a turn in first 30 minutes usual. , 1892.75-1894.00 on NQ key there

(May 19-10:06) mike: The open at 1112.50 support was bought but the bounce stalled/ reversed from 1122.75 on ES (just under key resistance) and the NQ reversed from its 1892.75-1894.00 initial resistance. The high made 20 minutes in, so that area is still a key resistance on a bounce. If the low breaks, then 1107.00-1106.50 area could start a decent bounce.

(May 19-10:17) mike: the 1110.50 is a key supp, then 1107-1106. if they reverse from 1107-1106 area a decent boulce possible. still, upside would be liimited IF they reverse

(May 19-10:22) mike: lock in profits on part if short, and/or trail stop on the rest 1102, 1098-1095 area next supp

(May 19-10:42) mike: 1115 needs to be exceeded and help to change the symmetry / itlooks pivotal area this morning.
(May 19-10:42) mike: The ES cut right thru 1107.00-1106.50 on the way to 1103.50 so far, and the bounce stopped at the 1115 low area from yesterday. The 1115 area needs to be cleared and held on a pullback to get out of trouble this morning. A test of the lows that reverses should set up a scalp from the long side, but trends are down under 1115.

(May 19-11:07) mike: its slowing down, watch 1874 on nq , a small double top , needs cleared soon and not reverses, or a drop coming

(May 19-11:17) mike: stay with shorts unless 111.50-1112 is taken out.

(May 19-11:25) mike: 1106.25-1107.00 area good resist now

(May 19-11:31) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18 ema is trend guide on these moves

(May 19-11:38) mike: if 1106.25-1107.00 resist is not cleared and 1101.75 breaks, then 1095 area could be tested, then reversal is a buying opportunity.
(May 19-11:40) mike: sent a bit ago, sorry if repeat. The ES couldn't clear 1115 and falling again. The 1111.50-1112.00 area needs to be cleared / held to take some pressure off. Otherwise if the lows break then 1098-1095 zone could be in the cards.

(May 19-11:58) mike: 1098.50-1097.50 was tested, quickly reversed, should be a low or the day or more... a re test is a buying opportunity, for a scalp at least.

(May 19-12:55) mike: i'll be in and out of my office today, but will update if i see something. the ES broke a wedge to should dip again. -- if not, the key hurdle is now at 1112.00-1112.50, then 1115 area.

(May 19-13:13) mike: stair step up. a fast drop that stalls a few seconds over 1109 are scalp longs , the sprint up sell as they dont stay in higher high ground very long.

(May 19-13:41) mike: wedge pattern and a break/ hold of 1110 pus press on

(May 19-13:54) mike: The ES fell to the 1098.50-1097.50 zone and turned back up and now the drops are being bought. The sprints higher are being sold also in a choppy uptrend. As long as the 1110.50-1110.00 area holds, the trend will be up with the 1123-1124.50 as key resistance if they get that far. If that 1110.50-1110.00 is not defended then a reversal back to the downside occurs.

(May 19-14:09) mike: they need to make higher low than 1113 or the rally over, sell test of 1118

(May 19-14:18) mike: a big wedge/ channel break, a test of 16.50-17.00 would be ideal short if they get there and stall - 1115 is a lid now tho

(May 19-15:07) mike: the bounce is toast, 1105 supp1, then test of low/ 1112-13 good resist if reached
(May 19-15:10) mike: 16.50 reversal was ''by the ebook'' , a bounce to 1111.50 area now resist, 1105 should be key supp

(May 19-15:19) mike: not good when mkt can not rally from so oversold. shorts wont cover w/ mkt acting poor under 1111.50 area. it must break/ hold

(May 19-15:34) mike: the day will probably end in this range, its ok if 1111.25 holds. if not, close over 1107 is modestly bullish, under 1107 is bearish . have a good rest of your day

 

Tuesday - May 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 18-09:06) mike: 1144.00-1144.50 is 1st big area off flash-crash low

(May 18-09:53) mike: The 1148.00-1148.50 area on ES and 1931.75-1933.25 zone on NQ were rejected and that will be a top if 1142 is broken.

(May 18-10:29) mike: a 123 top on dow cash. those 1144.50 and 1926 good resist

(May 18-10:47) mike: they could bounce from 1136 area, but bounces to 42 area should fail and set up shorts

(May 18-11:12) mike: The ES topped about 20 minutes in, and after 1142 was broken a bounce to 1144.75 stalled/reversed while the Dow cash made a 123 top and a steady drop to 1133.00 occurred. The 1141.50-1142.00 area should be good resistance and a short if a pop to that area stalls out there. A two-sided day so far, so don't get married to a trade in this volatility.

(May 18-11:39) mike: wedge break, bounces are shorts unless 1140 exceeded and not reversed quickly

(May 18-11:48) mike: 34.75-35.50 resist

(May 18-12:10) mike: 1133-1134 has been pivotal for yesterday/ today. the ES needs to get over and hold that area to get out of trouble for a bit ,
(May 18-12:35) mike: 35.75 small resist here.
(May 18-13:12) mike: 33 should be strong resist now

(May 18-13:19) mike: 1124.50-1123.75 need to hold,/ reverse or a big down day occurs. still, upside is not a lot, 1130, then 1133 to still look for shorts

(May 18-13:23) mike: The bounces have all been sold and it should continue unless the 1133 level is exceeded, and not quickly reversed. The 1124.50-1123.75 could give a bounce, but if broken and not quickly reversed, then a bigger drop is in the cards today.

(May 18-13:39) mike: little wedge patterns on 2 min chart keeps breaking, 1128 resist now

(May 18-13:54) mike: 1124.50-1123.75 will need to hold on this or mkt is really bad looking, 1128 still resist to get out of trouble for a bit

(May 18-14:12) mike: 28 rejected, its still vulnerable under 1128

(May 18-14:28) mike: stair steps, staying under 1128 is bearish
(May 18-14:32) mike: 24 now is key/ trend resist to sell

(May 18-14:47) mike: 10500 on dow cash, 1117 on ES , both should be good support now, 1124 area now key resist and likely a short if tested and they stall/ rejected

(May 18-15:14) mike: 1117.50 good supp, should hold, 24-25 resist

(May 18-15:30) mike: 24.25 was a good spot to sell, thats now key resist

(May 18-15:54) mike: its trying to bottom, 1118 supp to end the day. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Monday - May 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

May 17, 2010 8:05 mike: 1130.00-1129.50 on es, 1900.75-1899.50 on nq both help pre open, it needs to hold on next test

May 17, 2010 8:55 mike: 36.50 key / pivotal early.

May 17, 2010 9:04 mike: The early strength was sold as the ES reversed 1140 about 10 minutes in and has been going down since then. The 1136.50 area needs to be cleared to take pressure off. The 1130.00-1129.50 area on the ES and 1900.75-1899.50 area on NQ were tested pre-open and held, so the initial support is "must hold" to avoid a bigger break down.

May 17, 2010 9:31 mike: 3650 area good resist, if short thats pivital this morn. and the 30.00-29.50 is key supp. its vulnerable under 36.50

May 17, 2010 9:44 mike: The ES bounced from initial support to the 1136.50 area twice, and both times rejected. Short under that area is the better odds trade towards 1124 if they break.

May 17, 2010 9:46 mike: audio updates in the early afternoon today , -- make or break right here

May 17, 2010 10:04 mike: 32 now good resist

May 17, 2010 10:18 mike: 1120.25-1119.50 should be seen if 1124 breaks and no quick reversal . 1129.50-1130 resist no

May 17, 2010 10:24 mike: 27.00-27.50 is trend resist, mkt still vulnerable under that

May 17, 2010 10:36 mike: The ES broke down through the 1130 level and kept going until reaching 1122.75, and that was quickly reversed. A bounce should see resistance at 1127.75, and maybe 1130-11131 which is key resistance if still in downtrends.

May 17, 2010 10:48 mike: 27.75 now key resist, must break over to dent downside mo.

May 17, 2010 10:54 mike: still 20.20-19.50 likely i think

May 17, 2010 11:09 mike: 1111-1110 should give a bounce. 1121 good resist . on audio in about 5 min or so for awhile. look for mic icon

AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO....AUDIO

May 17, 2010 12:20 mike: 18.50-18.00 needs to hold now. 24.75-25.50 is go0d resist ,

May 17, 2010 12:36 mike: at 60ema on 5 min, drop to 22.50-22.00 must hold , audio on in a few minutes

AUDIO...AUDIO....AUDIO.....AUDIO....AUDIO

May 17, 2010 1:39 mike: The ES bounced to 1125.75 but holds 1122.00 on pullbacks. The 1126 level needs to be cleared and not quickly reversed to get a break-out higher. If that happens, look for 1130-1131 for strong resistance.

May 17, 2010 1:50 mike: 1131 should be good resist. if 1125.50 holds, no real harm done now, but if broken then 22 could be tested end of day

May 17, 2010 2:06 mike: 29.50-28.75 need hold

May 17, 2010 2:10 mike: 26.50 supp, then 22. bearish pattern, sell a test of 31 that stalls if reached

 

 

Friday - May 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 14-09:57) mike: nq leader, 43-44 first key resist
(May 14-10:01) mike: all ugly, 1140 needs to be cleared/ held or its trend down
(May 14-10:03) mike: 38 now trend resist

(May 14-10:27) mike: The market gapped down and kept going until the ES reached 1132.25 about 35 minutes into trading. The 1143.50-1144.25 area should offer resistance, and if that is exceeded then 1150-1151 is good resistance. It looks like the market COULD fall hard again IF 1138-1137 is broken and not reversed right away.

(May 14-10:41) mike: pressure to the lows or more under 38
(May 14-10:45) mike: 38 is the key in here still

(May 14-11:04) mike: the 38.00-38.50 now key resist. 1127.75 next supp

(May 14-11:32) mike: The ES bounced to 1142 and reversed, and after breaking 1138-1137 the bounce failed at 1138.50 and dropped to a lower low. That 1125 area might be a decent low, but the ES needs to take out 1136.00-1136.50 and not quickly reverse to get out of trouble for a bit.

(May 14-12:02) mike: a trend day, not to fight, 1132.50 then 34.75 resist will be a short if reached

(May 14-12:31) mike: they tagged 20 ema on 5 min chart and backed off . 31-32 on es and 1895-1896 nq need cleared .

(May 14-12:41) mike: support at 1128 needs to be defended on a pullback, trends turning

(May 14-12:46) mike: The trend down move found buyers/ shorts to cover after reaching 1123.25 and bounced to the 1132.50 rebound high from earlier. That area and 1895-1896 must be cleared/ held to get out of trouble. The 1128 area needs to hold or the trend down continues.

(May 14-13:04) mike: trend down action erased, the 1138-1139 next resist. now a two-sided action starting, 1128 should not be see , otherwise the move failed and 1120.25-1119.50 next key supp

(May 14-13:19) mike: a 123 and wedge pattern breaking, a bounce a short -

(May 14-13:23) mike: The first pullback turned up from 1128 and bounced to 1134.50, and after a 123 top they fell again to 1128.75. A bounce should fail, stay with shorts unless 1134.50 is exceeded.

(May 14-13:43) mike: should test low if 29.50 not exceeded soon

(May 14-14:03) mike: its a two way trading. the mkt acts bad, but "safe" if 1127 reversed a 3rd time. - upside should't go over 1136 and stick . short the pops still easier trade

(May 14-14:15) mike: a bounce will fail, 1119.50 is in the cards , maybe 1111-1110

(May 14-14:23) mike: dbl bottom but need to get thru 28.50-29.00 resist

(May 14-14:54) mike: good resist around 32 all afternoon, and nq rejected 1900 trapping longs, those are sell areas

(May 14-15:02) mike: The ES dropped to test the low and then ran up to that 1132 area that has been trouble all day. That area is key resistance and must be cleared to avoid ending the day with sideways action at best, with a possible a drop towards 1120.25-1119.50 if it gets hit hard.

(May 14-15:18) mike: the week has been good trading. the puts were covered pre mature unless you trailed a stop per last night, a nice trade none the less. for rest of the day, if they want to rally i'll miss it. rather stay with the shorts until something changes

(May 14-15:43) mike: 1900 on nq was rejected 2 times today

(May 14-15:55) mike: shorts covering last 30 minutes. we're range bound now, it should 1136 resist

 

 

 

Thursday - May 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 13-09:37) mike: cover 1/3 put position

(May 13-09:42) mike: 1166.25-1165.75 now resist, must break and hold to avoid trouble

(May 13-10:29) mike: 1170.75-1171.25 rejected, a top if 67 breaks

(May 13-10:38) mike: The ES dropped down to 1161.75 and quickly reversed and the rally tested the 1170.75-1171.25 and backed off a bit. The 1167.50-1166.75 area needs to hold to avoid a drop, otherwise a test of 1173 area is likely and should be telling.

(May 13-10:55) mike: a top in for now , a pop to a lower high that reverses sets up a 123 top

(May 13-11:08) mike: a wedge break , a bounce will be sold, 6850 resist, then 70.50 very good resist

(May 13-11:29) mike: The ES reversed from the 1172.00 level and if this bounce makes a lower high it sets up a good short. That is a key area and the bounces should fail unless that 1172-1173 area is exceeded and not quickly reversed. The NQ is a bit weak and needs to stay over 1970 to avoid more trouble.

(May 13-11:45) mike: i will do audio updates starting around noon. the NQ a better short, its what i have been trading . very choppy but short side better odds

(May 13-11:54) mike: AUDIO starts in few minutes,

AUDIO....AUDIO....AUDIO....AUDIO....AUDIO.....

May 13, 2010 1:33 mike: 67.50-68.0 now resist

May 13, 2010 1:41 mike: if they cant get over 67.50-68.00 and hold its bad news bulls

May 13, 2010 1:50 mike: should make a lower daily low
May 13, 2010 1:51 mike: 61.25 key level

May 13, 2010 2:04 mike: a lower low but stayed over 61.25 - 1166.00-1166.50 good resist now
May 13, 2010 2:07 mike: if you bought puts with me yesterday, stay with 1/2 the position. cover all but half dn here

May 13, 2010 2:16 mike: that 1158 a key supp,
May 13, 2010 2:16 mike: 1152-1151 major
May 13, 2010 2:19 mike: 1056.00-1155.50 could give bounce but its a short if so

May 13, 2010 2:34 mike: a bounce didn't stick and this is i trouble unless 1163 area is cleared.
May 13, 2010 2:37 mike: if 1151 area is tested , and a quick reversal occurs, a good rebound happens. if broken then 1144 in cards

May 13, 2010 2:49 mike: low in for now, a test of 56 area should hold
May 13, 2010 2:54 mike: 1158, need a close over that to avoid more downside tomorrow

 

 

Wednesday - May 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 12-09:03) mike: audio update today will start around noon or a little bit after that today

(May 12-09:15) mike: 1158.50-1160.25 on ES, 1947.75-1950.00 on NQ are key area to get over and hold

(May 12-10:13) mike: The 1160.25 resistance was tough to get through but after breaking out they sprinted to the 1165.25-1166.00 zone so far. If 1162 is held, then a test of yesterday's high is possible, with the big 1173 area as key resistance. If broken, the 1158 area is a key support.

(May 12-10:24) mike: 1162 held. but 1165.25-1166.00 is strong area to sell against tight stop and scalp, but if exceeded it could go for 1173 area , but that will be hard to get to, through, and hold

(May 12-10:34) mike: good resist, but acting ike it did at 1160 early. must break 1162 soon,
(May 12-10:39) mike: 62.50 resist now, its bearish if w stay under

(May 12-10:53) mike: 60.75 was the high in 1st 10 minutes and the break out level that took em to the high. that drop reversed right there. that makes 1160.75 area a transition area. market is not damaged unless that's broken and not quickly reversed.

(May 12-11:05) mike: the 65.25-64.50 area needs to hold now. keep an eye on NQ it has been leading
(May 12-11:07) mike: we'll try audio updates around 12noon today,

(May 12-11:16) mike: acting toppy. sell a bounce towards 66 ,

(May 12-11:21) mike: The ES backed off from 1165.75 and tested 1162 updated support before a push to the 1167.00 high. A test of the 1166 area that stalls/reverses sets up a good short as a top looks in place for now.

(May 12-11:31) mike: 63-64 area should be good resist

(May 12-12:29) mike: The dropped to 1159.50 and quickly reversed and the bounce to 1165.75 was just rejected. The ES needs to quickly reverse if is breaks 1160, as it did twice earlier. If the 1166-1167 area is pushed through and not quickly reversed, then 1172-1173 is still a key area to watch for reversal.

(May 12-13:10) mike: the high 2 tick under yesterday high, 66.50-66.00 supp, needs to hold keep from drop to 63-62 area

(May 12-13:28) mike: if the high is tested its a spot to start a swing trade on short side w/ stop just over the 1173 resist
(May 12-13:30) mike: june or july options a good place to start a core position

(May 12-13:46) mike: The ES popped to 1189.50, just over yesterday's high, and reversed. That's a double top for now, and if the 1163.50 area is not held then the 1158.50 level would need to hold or a high is likely in place.

(May 12-14:20) mike: a test of high should reverse. if so a drop to 64.25-63.50 should hold or they begin breaking down.

(May 12-14:38) mike: test of high reversed, 67.50-67.00 first decent support

(May 12-14:52) mike: supp held. feeble bounce back. 123 top ,

(May 12-15:01) mike: the nq has been leading it up and as long as 67 on es and 1970 on nq are not broken/ held they have a shot for 1172-1173 before this runs out of gas

(May 12-15:34) mike: if 67.50 can hold, 1 more push higher
(May 12-15:35) mike: add to puts if they get to 1170 and turn down

(May 12-16:10) mike: have a good rest of the day.

 

Tuesday - May 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 11-09:30) mike: 52.25-53.00 is key resist today

(May 11-10:33) mike: The lower open reversed from 1144.25 and made double bottoms and rallied to 1154.50 so far. The 1155-1156 area should be key resistance today, and 1144-1143 is key support. A test of the highs will likely be sold now that a small wedge pattern was broken.

(May 11-10:47) mike: they have a good bid at 52 that needs tp hold.

(May 11-11:07) mike: i am not feeling well this morning. next update in a few hours or less i hope. as long as dips to 1151.00-1150.00 hold, mkt in bullish mode, just beware of reversal near 56.50-57.00

(May 11-11:58) mike: back for now. the 62-64 zone is strong resist , a scalp short if reached *and* move stalls out/rejected - also, 1154.501154.00 is now a major area, and need to stay over that to avoid a break down.

(May 11-12:19) mike: a stall from 1163.75, the 61.50-61.00 supp now needs to hold on pullback . its been ''trend up'' since the open so make or break up here

(May 11-12:46) mike: After the last update the ES broke out over 1154.50 and held that on a pullback and the ES moved 10 points higher. It has been "trend up" since the open but there should be good resistance at 1164.00-1164.50 area. However, as long as the ES stays over 1161, no harm done. The 1172-1173 area is the big hurdle on this leg up, and should cause a turn if approached.

(May 11-13:21) mike: if 1162 area doesn't hold, then the trend up action changes to sell the bounces , still strong if tht holds

(May 11-13:48) mike: 62 held and now 62.50 is trend up support, 1172-1173 next resist and very key resist.

(May 11-14:01) mike: 64.50 should hold reverse if going for 1173 area today . or just to avoid a top now

(May 11-14:16) mike: 65.50-66.00 a short, a good setup if it pops there and stalls/ reverses

(May 11-14:33) mike: The ES made it to 1169 before reversing and dropped to 1157 so far. A break/ hold over 1162-1163 is needed to get out of trouble. If the highs are tested somehow, its a shorting opportunity for a swing trade as the 1173 area should be as far as a bounce goes, if a top not in already.

(May 11-15:03) mike: 52 could be a low
(May 11-15:03) mike: 58 resist

(May 11-15:28) mike: 1156.50 is pivotal / need to break it and hold on a dip, otherwise still vulnerable

(May 11-16:02) mike: tomorrow i will update a few hours via audio. have a great rest of the day

 

Friday - May 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 07-09:58) mike: 1126 is pivotal area now. great early action , sell bounces
(May 07-10:00) mike: The 1116.00-1115.50 zone on ES and 1864.00-1862.50 zone on NQ were tested and reversed on the open, and a run up to 1132.75 and 1900.25 occurred before stalling and rolling over again. The 60ema on 5 minute chart has been the lid on bounces and its a short on bounces until that is cleared / held.

(May 07-10:16) mike: a break / hold over 1120 needed to get out of trouble

(May 07-10:23) mike: avoid longs until they prove a turn. the bounces are aggressively sold,

(May 07-10:36) mike: ''fast market'' conditions on, this bounce should have resist at 111.50-1113.50 area
(May 07-10:40) mike: if 1104.75 holds they can pop up again
(May 07-10:40) mike: not now

(May 07-10:47) mike: The volatility is huge with good swings both ways. The 1109-1100 area should be very good resistance but if broken then 1119-1120 area would be a better area if they bounce that far and stall out. The 1098 area held twice and if broken then 1082.00-1080.50 should be key if they drop again through the lows.

(May 07-10:57) mike: stall just under 1109 resist, that shouldn't be exceeded now , they need to hold 1102.50 or a break down is in gear

(May 07-11:02) mike: a 4.75 point dip there just a tiny move. - in this volatility, cut back on position size and allow bit wider stop . nab 34 points on part of short , stop at breakeven
(May 07-11:02) mike: nab 3- 4 points, not 34
(May 07-11:04) mike: 1102.50 now a key area. buy there if reversed

(May 07-11:11) mike: 1110-1109 now good support. the 1122.75 is the 60ema. it has been the big reversal when tagged yesterday and this morning. its the bigger trend resist

(May 07-11:21) mike: if that 1116 isn't held then a dip to 1109-1108 needs to hold, or 1098 can be tested

(May 07-11:57) mike: 60ema has been holding this down. need to stay over 1122.50 , not reject again
(May 07-11:58) mike: fyi, for 60ema on 5 minute chart, its for regular trading hours chart. the start time is 9:30am open for stocks, stop time is the 4:15pm settlement for futures.

(May 07-12:09) mike: that 1115 low area is key support now, then 1106. this 26 area was rejected big earlier. key hurdle

(May 07-12:13) mike: Fast market conditions are making updates difficult. The ES broke / held 1109-1110.00 and sprinted to 1126.00 before dropping to 1106. The highs are being tested. As long as 1115 holds the market is if buy mode. Beware of 1134-36 for possible reversal.

(May 07-12:21) mike: careful w/ longs, a big wedge breaks if 21.25 break
(May 07-12:22) mike: a bounce is a short if not in
(May 07-12:26) mike: a wedge break second entry, or 123 top pattern would have been ideal. hope you sold longs at least. to fast to update and manage my trade today- cover part , 15 sup

(May 07-12:52) mike: just like ebook wedge 2nd chance entry , 1121-22 key now

(May 07-13:06) mike: here goes,
(May 07-13:06) mike: nq leading
(May 07-13:07) mike: 17 shouldn't even get close
(May 07-13:09) mike: 13 shouldnt be exceeded now
(May 07-13:10) mike: 08.50 target 1 small supp
(May 07-13:14) mike: 14.50-15.00 resist
(May 07-13:17) mike: fast rally, a retest of 1111 area tht reverses is scalp long
(May 07-13:19) mike: get out if you bought tht , no gusto

(May 07-13:44) mike: Watch the 1117.50-1118.50 if reached for a reversal if the market gets there and stalls out.

(May 07-13:49) mike: if this can manage to stay over 1115 they have a chance to get over 1120....... , if broken, that 1111-1110 turned into good support. , must be defended or drop to close

(May 07-13:55) mike: this weekend i'm going to be testing this message room for audio, so if you are a current member and have this open this weekend and hear me testing, please send an email telling me you heard me. thx. this great volatility should continue, looking for one more setup, then gone. so, have a great weekend. ''see'' you monday

(May 07-14:10) mike: if no bounce here, splat

(May 07-15:08) mike: 1098 very key

 

 

Thursday - May 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 06-09:17) mike: we aren't done with downside unless 1164 is exceeded and not rejected today

(May 06-10:05) mike: The ES bounced from 1157.50 (1158.00-1157.25 support) to 1164.50 (1164.75-1165.50 resistance) in the first 15 minutes. A drop back to 1158.50 was held, and that 1164.75-1165.50 was tested again. The 1158.00-1157.50 must be quickly reversed if tested again to have a decent low in place.

(May 06-10:23) mike: sell the pop to resist
(May 06-10:23) mike: 1155-54 supp should test
(May 06-10:26) mike: pressure on under 1160
(May 06-10:30) mike: 60.50-61.00 now a key area on a bounce

(May 06-10:44) mike: The ES tried 3 times to push through the 1164.75-1165.50 resistance and was soundly rejected. They must break and hold over that area to get out of trouble. A drop to the 1152.00-1150.25 area will need to be quickly reversed or the mid 1140's are in the cards before a turn-around.

(May 06-10:51) mike: 1155.00-1154.75 is just a minor zone from yesterday, 1152 is the key area. , and maybe 1148-47 if they hold under 58

(May 06-11:08) mike: 1157.00-1157.50 is good resist on this bounce from 1152.00-1150.25. the mkt still vulnerable and in poor shape unless that is cleared / held

(May 06-11:21) mike: that looks like a decent low, a test of the low that stalls and/or reverses is a buying opportunity

(May 06-11:32) mike: The trend down move reversed from 1148.50 and is bouncing back a bit to 1154.25 so far. A test of the lows that reverses would make a double bottom so watch that for a trade on the long side. However, the 1157-1158 area is now good resistance that must be cleared / held now to get out of trouble for a bit.

(May 06-11:39) mike: there was no gusto on the turn up. avoiding longs
(May 06-11:39) mike: for now
(May 06-11:44) mike: if they break , 1144-1142 area is next

(May 06-12:03) mike: small resist here 54.50, 51-50 supp should hold if a bottom is in

(May 06-12:21) mike: this is a scalp short under 57 resist

(May 06-12:27) mike: The ES tried to double bottom, but broke it before reversing from 1147.25 low. The bounce failed at the 1177-1178 zone so far and the market is still a bit vulnerable unless cleared. If the 1152-1151 area can hold the market can make another push higher but it will likely fail.

(May 06-12:54) mike: they are not staying under 49 very long but mkt is still short. be patient for run up to fizzle out then get short

(May 06-13:21) mike: this is huge support zone and mkt very oversold- so if unable to reverse from the mid 1140's per earlier update, then 1138 area is next . its still sell bounces unless 1154 broken. held

(May 06-13:26) mike: 47.50-48.50 resist. 3 other ounces were 6-7 pts, so 50-51 is a 6-7 point bounce off low to wtch too

(May 06-13:36) mike: 47.50 rejected. i think we can see 1138 area if 47.50 not exceeded

(May 06-13:47) mike: The ES sliced through 1152-1151 and fell another to points to 1142.50 so far. The NQ made a nice reversal from its 1921.50 low, so it could lead the market out of the hole. Still, the ES will need to break and hold the 1147.50-1148.00 area on a pullback to get turned around for a decent rally to occur.

(May 06-14:06) mike: its an emotional drive lower, bids being pulled all the way down. if 1138 area breaks, 10 points lower

(May 06-14:14) mike: 1140.75 is as far as a bounce should go. nq is lead dog

(May 06-14:21) mike: 1133.75-1135.00 zone god reist now.

(May 06-14:26) mike: they drpped 10 points easy, we cracked all kinds of supp on way down, a failure at resist should give test of low. i think that 1125 might stick, a double bottom possible

(May 06-14:34) mike: 1118/1117 then 1112 area for support, but no ''real'' support now

(May 06-14:46) mike: a windfall day for shorts. fast mkt conditions, don't jump in now. a big snap back likely,
(May 06-14:50) mike: 1116 is resist
(May 06-14:56) mike: the 1125-1128 area should offer some resist, reversal
(May 06-15:06) mike: they ok over 1120-1118
(May 06-15:09) mike: 1105-1103 is now a key supp

(May 06-15:32) mike: 1106.50 was pretty close given the volatility. they will be ok as long as that holds , just be cautious now for sure

(May 06-15:57) mike: wow. and the bounce stopped at 60ema on 5 min chart. have a great rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday - May 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 05-09:15) mike: 1158.25-1157.50 will need to hold or 1152-1150 in the cards. 1165.50 resist then 1170-1171 area

(May 05-09:51) mike: ism index top of the hour, 1160 must be exceeded / held on a dip to get out of trouble for a bit

(May 05-10:12) mike: gap on daily chart filled, ow 1162 needs to hold to keep ounce going

(May 05-10:23) mike: The gap down open was reversed from 1155.00 on the ES and has gone trend up to 1167.75 so far. A pullback needs to hold around 1162.50-1162.00 at the worst, or the trends turn over.

(May 05-10:31) mike: wedge pattern.
(May 05-10:33) mike: 62.50 must hold for a pop to 66-67 that stalls, that is a short.

(May 05-10:47) mike: 70-71 is next resist / potential reversal area. but the mkt is in short term bullish mode as long as they stay over 1162.50

(May 05-11:01) mike: now a test of the high *that stalls a minute or 2* is a short. a bigger channel/ wedge to break

(May 05-11:08) mike: a bearish pattern, a ounce from this support should fail

(May 05-11:18) mike: if this bounce off support gets to the 68.50 area that stalls would be a short.
(May 05-11:22) mike: 66 needs to hold to get another push higher,
(May 05-11:28) mike: 68.25 rejected, now 66 needs to hold or 1163-1162 possible
(May 05-11:31) mike: if u sold 68 area cover part here, trail stop on rest

(May 05-11:45) mike: there should be tradable pullbacks when the bounces stall and start to turn over,but odd better on long side unless or until there is a lower low on the 5 mi chart. 1165.50 now

(May 05-11:54) mike: The market has been in a choppy trend up since getting over 1162.20 and holding. This move should have tradable pullbacks, but unless there is a lower low made on the 5 minute chart the dips will be buying opportunities. IF the 1173.50-1174.00 area is not reversed, then we could see the 1177-1178 zone on this rebound.

(May 05-12:06) mike: 1173.50-1174.00 just missed, thats key resist today. 1169.50 must not break / hold or its a good top for awhile

(May 05-12:15) mike: lunchtime pullback. 1169.00 pivotal

(May 05-12:46) mike: having a network connect problem, back in 15 min

(May 05-13:12) mike: The ES reversed from the just under the 1173.50-1174.00 resistance but the pullbacks are holding. However, to avoid trouble the ES needs to get over 1168.50-1169.50 area and not turn right back down (like it has). The market should be range bound at worst as long as the 1162.50-1162.00 is broken and not quickly reversed.

(May 05-13:25) mike: they dont like 1170 handle , a scalp short if tested again
(May 05-13:30) mike: if 1170 touched then reversed, then a scalp short. mkt acting a bit tired

(May 05-13:44) mike: some really quick moves, if they pop up to 70 and stall out, should break lower. and 85 must quickly reverse
(May 05-13:45) mike: 1165 must reverse quickly

(May 05-14:00) mike: if they test the 68.50 and stall again short em

(May 05-14:05) mike: The ES reversed from the 1169.50 area and is dropping. The 1170 level needs to be exceeded and held on a pullback otherwise it's still vulnerable and then 1162.50-1162.00 would be a key area to hold/ reverse from. It must or down they go.

(May 05-14:32) mike: 1164 resist , the 1165.50-1166.50 - a short if a pop up stalls there

(May 05-14:47) mike: good resist at 1162 now. then 1163.5-1164.00 is transition resist. 1152.50-115.00 if low breaks

(May 05-14:57) mike: The market broke lower and ES took out 1162.50 which is now a resistance zone. If the bounce off of 1157.50 fails around 1163, then one more drop could occur before a good reversal starts.

(May 05-15:16) mike: 62.75 close enough, its now a key resist. if shorted, 59.50 target 1
(May 05-15:17) mike: 60 is ok on part. / 63 shouldn't be exceeded now

(May 05-15:26) mike: its late but since 63 was taken out, a pullback can be bought if a test 60.00-59.50 that holds and begins to turn up

(May 05-15:43) mike: mkt is not out of trouble just yet so careful long up there unless until 62.50 exceeded

(May 05-15:47) mike: i hope to get voice thru this for a few hours on a few days each week pretty soon. need to get their tech help. anyway, have a good rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday - May 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 04-09:41) mike: if 77.50 broken again then 72-71 is next supp

(May 04-10:34) mike: 1183 strong resist now. 72-71 should be seen

(May 04-10:44) mike: The big gap down open was reversed from the 1178.00-1177.50 area on the ES, but the move rejected 1183 and dropped down to the 1172-1171 zone. They could go for 1168-1166 zone before a good bounce. Resistance is 1178.25-1179.75 on a weak bounce to short.

(May 04-10:57) mike: 68-66 area is next , a small supp zone.

(May 04-11:05) mike: The 1168-1166 zone was quickly reversed but this action is ugly and in trouble unless the 1177-1178 area is exceeded and held. The 1162 area would be next.

(May 04-11:19) mike: lunch time countertrend move.... 73-74 souldn't be exceeded though , 70 needs to hold tho or lows are tested

(May 04-11:34) mike: the es spent only a few seconds under 1168.50. staying over that keeps mkt from more damage. 74-75 area is still good resist, then 78.50-79.50

(May 04-11:46) mike: 73.75 close enough to 74-75, that area will not be cleared/ held if mkt still in trouble

(May 04-12:06) mike: The ES bounced to 1173.75 and backed off. The 1174 level on the ES needs to be exceeded and then held on a pullback to erase the trend down action.

(May 04-12:17) mike: could drop towards 1162 if no double bottom.

(May 04-12:29) mike: 1168.50-1169.00 resist on es

(May 04-12:34) mike: small reation, nq / tech is dragging mkt lower , it needs to get over 1958-1960

(May 04-12:54) mike: 1170 supp, needs to hold ot this uptrend rolls over

(May 04-13:03) mike: 72.50 prerry stronng resist, its vulnerable under 72.50-73.00
(May 04-13:04) mike: if 1170 breaks this bounce is over

(May 04-13:16) mike: The ES dropped to a low at 1165.25 and bounced back to 1172.50, which was solid resistance, and is pulling back again. That 1172.00-1173.50 area will need to be cleared and held not to avoid a test of the lows. If the lows are tested, a reversal back up is possible but if broken 1162 is in the cards.

(May 04-13:31) mike: this is a bit early for a good short covering run, but good buying came in around that 1169 - a buy if tested AND reversed for a scalp

(May 04-13:53) mike: it didn't hold over 1172 so 1170.50 is first good supp, a pop to 74 area that stalls iss a short

(May 04-14:02) mike: The ES bounced back to 1173.75 before backing off, and now the pressure is on unless the 1174 area is exceeded and not quickly reversed.

(May 04-14:05) mike: if a break of 1169 not reversed , then 1162 could be seen to finish today on down note. atch 71.00-72.00 for another turn

(May 04-14:12) mike: needs to turn quickly here.

(May 04-14:16) mike: a scalp to 70.50 or better here on partat least
(May 04-14:18) mike: 72 should be key resist now, a test of low must hold or 62 in the cards

(May 04-14:43) mike: the es hasn't spent much time under 1168 with out quick reversal. if that is broken and not reversed quickly again, it skids twards 62

(May 04-15:05) mike: right with an hour left shorts squeezd, if they drop to 68.25-67.75 and sall out, scalp long

(May 04-15:23) mike: it was a good bounce, but this isn't like the prior big down days. a good rally back not as likely to stick this time .
(May 04-15:23) mike: 69.5068.75 is key supp here ed of day

(May 04-15:51) mike: fast both ways. a close under 1172 is negative
(May 04-15:51) mike: have a great rest of the day

 

 

Monday - May 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(May 03-10:20) mike: The market opened higher and the ES pulled back to 1189.50-1189.25 area and that was held and is key support now. The 1194.00-1194.50 zone should not be rejected, or we will get a decent pullback. If they do break and hold over 1194.00-1194.50 area, then the 1198.25-1198.50 area could be seen, but could be a short if reached and reversed.

(May 03-10:35) mike: sell a test of 1192-93 area if they stall out there

(May 03-10:46) mike: a big drop on the Tick, dumping stocks, sell the bounces , 1192 is pivotal

(May 03-10:56) mike: 86.75-86.00 needs to give a bounce
(May 03-10:57) mike: 90.00-90.50 small resist

(May 03-11:11) mike: The bounce was reversed after getting to 1193.25 and the ES dropped to test that 1186.75 level. That was quickly reversed, so a 2-sided day is possible. If it is broken then 1184.00 is next. The ES will need to get over 1192 and not reverse now to stay out of trouble.

(May 03-11:39) mike: unable to get thru 92 so far here, 90.50 will need to break to turn the trend

(May 03-11:49) mike: the mkt has a good bid on dips so far w/ one exception. the drops should be bought today it looks, a 2-sided day. a dip should hold 1191.50-1190.75 or things might change

(May 03-12:02) mike: 92.00 pivotal still, need to stay over it now

(May 03-12:24) mike: they based out at 92, the 95.5 area good supp now. 1198.25-1198.50 is very good resist

(May 03-12:55) mike: 98 now trend supp. 1201.50-1202.50 is the breeak down zone on last friday

(May 03-13:01) mike: close eough, sell a pop to test high it looks toppy just under good resist \

(May 03-13:13) mike: The ES ran up to 1200.75 and was reversed, and that should be reversal area if this is not going trend-up all day. The 1198 area did break and hold so far, and that is now pivotal. If 1198 is broken to the downside, then that 1200.75 should be a high for the day.

(May 03-13:22) mike: 98.25 is acting like 1192 did earlier. its a key supp that must hold.

(May 03-13:51) mike: The 1198 level held and the ES popped into the 1201.50-1202.50 resistance. The ES broke hard from that area on Friday and it will be hard to break above and hold. If 1198 breaks, then a drop back to 1193-1192 could occur before getting turned back up.

(May 03-14:18) mike: 1199 needs to hold now to keep the stair step higher going. if there is sprint to 1202.50-1203.00 it can reverse for a scalp

(May 03-14:41) mike: a dbl top at resist, shorting bounces now

(May 03-14:53) mike: holding 99 , bulls in charge still unless broken. its been stair stepping hire, the high gets sold so just be ready to sell at new highs that stall out too

(May 03-15:12) mike: 1199.25-1200.50 good resist

(May 03-15:38) mike: 97 area, its 60ema on 5 min chart , key area to close over

 

 

Friday - April 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 30-10:14) mike: The ES bounced off of 1201.50 key support to 1205.25 in the first 15 minutes and stalled out. A little 123 top and break of the 1201.50 level gave a fast drop to the 1193.50 so far. THe market is in trouble again, and bounces should fail. The 1202 area is resistance that should not be exceeded today.

(Apr 30-10:19) mike: 98.50 is small resist on a bounce, i will be away for most of today. bounces should not stick. go get em

(Apr 30-10:26) mike: if they break the lows watch 1192/1191 for a turn, it fills gap from . its 2012 on nq

(Apr 30-11:47) mike: Mike wanted me to remind you he will be gone until around 1:30-2:00pm. he may be done for the week, but he might send a note if he sees a trade. good luck

(Apr 30-13:41) mike: The 1202 area was rejected on the bounce and that set up a drop to the 1192.00-1191.50 zone where the market tried to bounce. It didn't stick and the 1188 area was tested and is giving a bounce. It looks like the ES needs to get over 1194 and not reverse to change things. If that happens, then the next area is 1196.50 and then 1201-1202 if the move doesn't reverse.

(Apr 30-13:54) mike: 94 area rejected, that should be it for bounce, a wedge forming too. needs to clear 94 and stick to avoid drop

(Apr 30-14:01) mike: cover 1/2 if you sold up there
(Apr 30-14:05) mike: last potential setup for me, the wedge break 2nd entry per the ebook. a failure near 93-94 area

(Apr 30-14:26) mike: a failure, but no quick drop so careful short, 92 now important supp
(Apr 30-14:28) mike: have a great rest of the day and weekend. not as easy as earlir, play defence

(Apr 30-14:37) mike: end of month has me cautious, but this could go to 82 area

 

 

Thursday - April 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 29-09:27) mike: 1197.75-1198.25 sell zone early

(Apr 29-09:41) mike: thats it for a bit, 2023.50-2424.50 nq is a key resist there, 1200 area ES

(Apr 29-09:59) mike: 92.50-92.00 supp if 95.75 is broken

(Apr 29-10:12) mike: 96 obvious good supp, no damage done unless broken

(Apr 29-10:31) mike: The ES gapped up and rallied to 1199.50 before stalling and pulling back. The pullback held at 1196.00, which was the opening range, and reached the 1200.75-1201.25 zone. A pullback should hold 1199.50, but if broken that 1196 area needs to hold or a reversal occurs..

(Apr 29-10:35) mike: they need to stay over 1200 or we get a dip towards 99.00-98.50
(Apr 29-10:39) mike: 1200.75-1201.25 short zone, stp 1201.75
(Apr 29-10:40) mike: 99.25 is target 1
(Apr 29-10:42) mike: scratch t
(Apr 29-10:43) mike: need 1200 to break to chnge trend.

(Apr 29-10:53) mike: 1202.25 now must hold to keep trend up

(Apr 29-10:59) mike: The ES took out 1200 and held it on a pullback. There is trend up support at 1202.00, but if broken that 1200 level needs to hold or the move will be reversing course.

(Apr 29-11:03) mike: gap days are often times trend days, but beware of 123 type tops for scalp shorts
(Apr 29-11:07) mike: a test of the high is a short now

(Apr 29-11:17) mike: this could hit an air pocket and drop fast , mkt feels ''on edge''

(Apr 29-11:22) mike: The 1200 level was quickly reversed. The market is acting a bit
skttish so beware of a double top if they are able to test the
highs.

(Apr 29-11:46) mike: double top so far, a tight stop on shorty 1203.25 needs to break and not quickly reverse now

(Apr 29-11:52) mike: drops have been 3.50 and 4.50 points, so shorts are scalps, unless 1200 breaks / holds / scalping out part at 1202.75 here

(Apr 29-12:09) mike: toppy acting, i'm shorting the new highs for scalps. they all are rejected 1sst time

(Apr 29-12:13) mike: 1202 keep holding, and must or top is in
(Apr 29-12:14) mike: its the 20ema on 5 min hart now too, which held 2 times so far

(Apr 29-12:30) mike: The 1204.50 level was rejected 3 times so far, but refuses to brwak down. It will take a break/ hold under 1202 to turn this down now.

(Apr 29-12:35) mike: buy dips over 1202, and/ or sell a new high . its a scalpers mkt with trend up bias over 1202, 2035 on NQ

(Apr 29-12:49) mike: to keep stair step higher, 1204 should / must hold

(Apr 29-13:03) mike: 1204.00 , more important 2040-2038 on NQ , need to hold or the trend up move is interupted . follow the NQ lead

(Apr 29-13:17) mike: the nq chart is ominous looking. a break of that trend cab be sharp, its topped at good resist

(Apr 29-13:26) mike: if they pop up again, and reverse 1205. sell em. nq hit top it looks

(Apr 29-14:00) mike: nq drpped to its 2040-2038 supp and turned back up , dips are buys over 1203.25 . if this goes like most gap/ trend days, they can rally into last 30 minutes . the pops that stall out can be scalp short, but mkt is still bullish over 1203

(Apr 29-14:31) mike: a close up here will erase the deep oversold and vix buy signals, a move towards 1208-1210 area that is reversed would set up 123 op on daily chart

(Apr 29-14:39) mike: time to short a bounce if there is one, especially a test of 1205.50-1206.00, a gift uf reached
(Apr 29-14:40) mike: 1203.25 held but still, this break is a red flag

(Apr 29-14:45) mike: The trend up move ran into good selling at 1206, and that may be a top for the day. If the 1205.50-126.00 zone is met and reversed then we could see the market get hit. Otherwise if 1202 is not held a reversal will be underway.

(Apr 29-15:05) mike: 1202 = 60ema on 5 min chart and a pivotal area today. they gotta hold over that, but a bounce will be sold near 1205 if they get there and stall out

(Apr 29-15:31) mike: just missed 1205.. but its late and since 1202 was quickly reversed, that should hold going into close. it must or a top will be in place

(Apr 29-16:06) mike: mixed close, nq finally weaker. watch 1208.00-1208.50 area overnight. have a good rest of the day.

 

 

Wednesday - April 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 28-09:27) mike: If the market is still weak, then the ES will not be able to get through the1190.50-1191.25 zone and stick.

(Apr 28-10:03) mike: The higher open was sold and the 1182.50 close is tested, but per last night the market is still weak unless 1190.50-1191.25 is exceeded/ held. I have to be away until 1130am this morning.

(Apr 28-10:53) mike: the ES can not stay over 1186 for very long. but also found support at 82 area... 2 sided trade unless 82 broken

(Apr 28-11:03) mike: the 60ema on 5 min chart is at 1187.75 , thats a key area to break / hold here , 85.50 supp
(Apr 28-11:08) mike: 86.00-85.50 area , last trapped, needs to hold to keep uptrend intact
(Apr 28-11:12) mike: a key spot here, if 87 braeaks then the trend changes
(Apr 28-11:15) mike: nq a short under 2005
(Apr 28-11:16) mike: 88.50-89.00 needs to be cleared
(Apr 28-11:20) mike: they cleared rsist and dropped, not on nq yet. but, they need to break 87.50-87.00 supp to turn trend here now

(Apr 28-11:28) mike: a wedge break, trade the 2nd entey on this

(Apr 28-11:32) mike: The ES made a little double bottom off 1182 and has bounced back to 1189.50 on the ES but lower high on the NQ. The break of a wedge just occurred, and so bounces are short under 1189.50 on the ES and 2004 on the NQ.

(Apr 28-12:02) mike: 1185 would need to be cleared and held to get out of this. the nq is leading the turns, keep a watch on that.
(Apr 28-12:09) mike: 82.75 is small resist, test of low if not cleared soon

(Apr 28-13:33) mike: this might be working now. 1185 broke./ held and thats a key area now. after fed rellease an update will be sent only if plenty of time to type it and still trade it. 1188-1189 are good resist that will be bullish towards 1197-ish if not quickly reversed

(Apr 28-14:10) mike: nq 2005-2006 a key spot now , 3 tops.
(Apr 28-14:11) mike: for supp, 1185 on es is the key area on a drop

(Apr 28-14:23) mike: 1190.50-1191.25 / 2010.50-2011.25 must clear and hold , 89 now imortant supp

(Apr 28-14:38) mike: look out below if 90.50 not exceded / held
(Apr 28-14:41) mike: tht should be it
(Apr 28-14:43) mike: need 89 to break

(Apr 28-14:49) mike: 86 supp / must stay over, or bad close

(Apr 28-15:12) mike: .must stay over 1186.50-1186.00 to keep the bigger trends up. a dbl top in place, if near 90 stalls is short w/ tight stop good odds

(Apr 28-15:22) mike: 90 rejected - a scalp only, 88.00-87.50 was high area pre fed, it is 1st good supp. if broken, then the 85 ill break too

(Apr 28-15:38) mike: 3 rejections, unable to stay over 1190, sell into the pops , this could break hard if 86 goes

(Apr 28-15:44) mike: 82.50 nxt
(Apr 28-15:46) mike: 1188.00-1188.50 now is a key resist to sell

(Apr 28-16:06) mike: a nice comeback , will close a few points over fair value if they close here near 91

 

Tuesday - April 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 27-10:20) mike: The gap down open reversed from the 1201.50-1201.00 support zone on the ES, but a bounce to 1205.00 failed and 1201.50 was tested again before turning back up. The 1203.50 area needs to hold now on a dip, and a move to the 1207-1208 area that stalls/reverses is a shorting opportunity.

(Apr 27-10:31) mike: 1207.50-1208.50 gap fill zone

(Apr 27-10:42) mike: gap filled, 1206.00-1205.50 is now support that needs to hold

(Apr 27-10:52) mike: a wedge type pattern broken, and from resist- the bounce is a short - reshort

(Apr 27-11:08) mike: the wedge break 2nd entry was ''by the book'' , now need a push thru 1203.50 and stick

(Apr 27-11:13) mike: they can bounnce here, but better odds / setups are short side, very poor action -- 1198.00-1197.50 needs to hold or its a bad day to be long

(Apr 27-11:19) mike: The ES formed a wedge pattern and the bounce off of 1204.25 was to the break-down level and the downside gathered momentum. The 1198.00-1197.50 zone now must hold, otherwise the ES could drop another 10 points before trying to turn around.

(Apr 27-11:23) mike: 1200 now trend resist, press is on unless that breaks and holds

(Apr 27-11:30) mike: 97-98 is now resist. if 1187 goes, then 1180-1179 next... if that breaks, we have a crashette.
(Apr 27-11:34) mike: we got the extra 10 points lower from break of 1197.50. this bounce should fail under 92.50-93.50 if staying in trend down mode

(Apr 27-11:42) mike: The ES tested and then broke 1197.50 and we got a drop of another 10 points and the market is trying to get some footing. A bounce should have trouble breaking and holding 1192.50-1193.00 if the trend down is still in gear. The 1197.50-1198.50 is next resistance if that's exceeded.

(Apr 27-11:56) mike: bounce failed under 92.50. that must be cleared / held to get anything going on the upside.

(Apr 27-12:09) mike: The ES bounced to 1191.50 and then dropped to 1187.00 and is still trying to get footing for a bounce. The Trin has been above 3.00 and the Vix jumped 18% intraday, like the last low on April 16th at this same area. The day is not over though, and unless the ES gets over 1192.50-1193.00 and holds on a pullback the market remains vulnerable.

(Apr 27-12:38) mike: this lunch time bounce could go towards 1190.50 if this 1188 is exceeded
(Apr 27-12:39) mike: a cluster of resist from 90.50-92.50 band that should be good resist

(Apr 27-12:59) mike: 1188.50 turning in to good support. need to hold over that to push to 91.50- 92 area

(Apr 27-13:30) mike: After the drop to 1183.50, the ES quickly reversed and after the first push higher a dip held at 1188.50 which is now a good support area. The 1197.50-1198.50 is next resistance as long as the ES can stay over the 1192.50 level.

(Apr 27-13:57) mike: if this 94.50 isn't taken out soon, then they drop towards 90.50 area, looks key on a drop

(Apr 27-14:22) mike: 94.50 was / is good resist and unless its exceeded and held the mkt still in trouble

(Apr 27-14:43) mike: 1185.50 is small supp, there is big supp at 1182.50 area. 1189.50 small resist, then the 1191.50 is resist to sell if a bounce can get there and stall/ reverse

(Apr 27-14:47) mike: The ES made a little double top at 1194.50-1194.75 area and rolled over. The 1191.50 level must be cleared and held on a pullback to get out of trouble today.

(Apr 27-14:49) mike: 88.50-89.00 is trend down resist , a short still under that

(Apr 27-15:23) mike: the bounce started right at 3pm. if no reversal here at 90.50 then 92.50-93.00 is key to end the day

(Apr 27-15:35) mike: a bounce should stop under 88.50 to close poorly

(Apr 27-15:51) mike: if short from higher up, i'm keeping part for a swing trade.. all key areas broken today

(Apr 27-16:10) mike: have a great rest of the day

 

 

Monday - April 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 26-09:51) mike: a parabolic move up , the turn came 12 minute in if 12 breaks, it could be a rush to get out

(Apr 26-09:59) mike: The follow through buying stalled/ reversed from 1216.25 in the first 12 minutes and quickly dropped 4 points before bouncing. The 1210 area is still key support, but the upside appears limited.

I have an appointment, will be back around noon.

(Apr 26-11:33) mike: The ES dropped to 1211.50 and turned back up to test the early high. It was rejected, and with the NQ lagging it should be tough to push through. The ES needs to get over 1215.00 and hold on a dip to avoid a double top.

(Apr 26-11:51) mike: short against 15, it is resist / must break -hold to avoid drop

(Apr 26-12:20) mike: double top and bottom. it looks like 13.50 is pivotal, and 1215 is a key resist that must hld if exceeded. stay w/ shorts still under resist

(Apr 26-13:04) mike: After pulling back from the 1216.50 high a bounce failed at 1214.75 and then the ES dropped to test its 1211.50 low. The market is churning range-bound, but now a break of 1211.50 should push the ES to the 1210.50-1210.00 key zone, and possibly 1208.00 area before a bounce.
If no break down, then on top the 1214.75 area needs to be cleared and not quickly reversed to get a push towards the 1217.50-1218.00 zone in gear. If they get there, beware of a reversal as the buyers backed away fast on the 2 punches over 1216 this morning. Otherwise, its a trading range until the 2:20-2:40 pm timeframe.

(Apr 26-13:25) mike: this is a small rising wedge, 1212.50 needs to hold or it breaks

(Apr 26-13:33) mike: now 12.50-13.00 resist

(Apr 26-13:58) mike: slow motion , but the pattern and 2nd entry resist played out.... 5.25 point range tho. the moves are just scalps so far . if 13.50-14.00 area is cleared, the rally can resume

(Apr 26-14:15) mike: buy program. the mkt will be ok as long as 11.25 is defended

(Apr 26-14:26) mike: The ES broke a small wedge pattern, but found support at 1211.25 and refused to break. As long as the 1211.25-1210.50 zone holds, no damage is done. If broken and not quickly reversed, then things could be changing. Just don't expect too much on the upside. If 1214 is exceeded, and held on a dip, then a move towards the 1217.50-1218.00 zone is in gear before a pullback occurs.

(Apr 26-14:31) mike: 1214 es, 2053 nq, 11240 dow cash all have been pivotal today. must clear or its a bearish setup

(Apr 26-14:57) mike: they are vulnrable under that resist across the board....
(Apr 26-14:58) mike: 1208.50-1208.00 is key if they break
(Apr 26-15:01) mike: 12.50-13.00 should be good resist

(Apr 26-15:15) mike: cover part of shorts at this 08.50-08.00 supp , trail on rest
(Apr 26-15:18) mike: 10.75-11.50 resist now, shouldn't be exceeded if going lower

(Apr 26-15:38) mike: 10.75 tagged, this zone should be a bounce high if going to test 1207.50low
(Apr 26-15:50) mike: they obeyed resist and supp well, mkt volatlity should increase tomorrow. have a nice rest of the day

 

Friday - April 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 23-09:25) mike: 1207 rejected pre open, thats key resist

(Apr 23-09:58) mike: 1201 pivotal held. news in 1 minutes now

(Apr 23-10:21) mike: The ES fell to the 1201.00-1200.50 pivotal zone 15 minutes into the day and bounced back to 1210.50-1212.00 zone. That's a big double top if 1206 is broken and not reversed.

(Apr 23-10:33) mike: a top, 04.00 small supp, then 1201 pivotal

(Apr 23-10:59) mike: short all bounces, it takes a break over 1207.50 that sticks to get the mkt out of poor action

(Apr 23-11:09) mike: The early bounce off of 1201.25 kept the market in uptrends, but then the rejection of the major 1210.50-1212.00 zone was a negative, especially after breaking 1206.00. If there is a bounce that stalls out under 1208, its a short as the market should struggle to hold gains.

(Apr 23-11:15) mike: i will be away for an hour or so, my apologies

(Apr 23-12:12) mike: the es has had 8 swings of 4 points , get 1 of those and its a good day. the 1201 supp tested twice, a thrid test normally should break

(Apr 23-12:26) mike: mkt is okay over 04.25 - a run to 07.50-08.50 will meet resist tho. need to stay over 04.25

(Apr 23-12:41) mike: The market chopped lower to test the 1201.50 level and bounced again. If the highs are tested, look for another reversal. If 1204 does not hold, then odds of getting there are not good as it could cause a break down.

(Apr 23-13:06) mike: 06.50-06.00 should/ must be solid support now on dip from 08 resist, or its breaking ,

(Apr 23-13:14) mike: 07.50 now supp, needs to hold / its 18 ema on 1 min chart too

(Apr 23-13:48) mike: mkt acting fine so fat. the 1205.75-1206.00 was a lid on bounce from 1201.50 support, then broke over it. it just held on a test. that need to be defended now. also, need break/ hold 1208 to squeeze shorts

(Apr 23-14:07) mike: The ES made it back to the 1208 area, and held 1206 on a pullback. That 1206 area is now good support that should/ must hold to keep the rally from failing.

(Apr 23-14:12) mike: stay w/ longs for no, but beware of 1210.50-1212.00 reversal

(Apr 23-14:24) mike: 1208 now needs to stay over on a dip, did once so far , its key now

(Apr 23-14:35) mike: 1208 quickly reversed, no harm done unless they hold under 1208
(Apr 23-14:39) mike: stalling out, need to get over 09 soon or a reversal is possible

(Apr 23-14:53) mike: 1209.50 now needs to be solid support. 1212 r

(Apr 23-15:10) mike: 1211.50 close enough to 1212. if 1209.50 is not held, then a top could be in.

(Apr 23-15:20) mike: 1211.25 now needs to hold

(Apr 23-15:49) mike: a chance of getting to 1220's is /possible/ early next week to top this off for another drop. around 1218 would be near miss, this should be worth the wait for a swing trade. for now, its still bullish
(Apr 23-15:51) mike: 1210 is trend support, they need to break that, then find it as resist on a bounce, to turn trends.
(Apr 23-15:51) mike: enjoy your weekend

 

 

Thursday - April 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 22-09:24) mike: if you have a core short position in put options, -- the es is 11 points under fair value, cover part into the gap down open - buy em back on a bounce

(Apr 22-09:32) mike: 1188.50-1188.0cover area
(Apr 22-09:33) mike: 1194 now good resist

(Apr 22-10:02) mike: pressure on under 91

(Apr 22-10:16) mike: 89.50 now needs to hold - 91.50-92.50 first key resist to break / hold

(Apr 22-10:35) mike: 95 filled gap on daily- 89.50 is the good supp, another day w/good volatility. hit and run unless a hold under 89.50 or over 95

(Apr 22-10:38) mike: The market gapped down and the ES dropped to 1186.25 in the first 20 minutes and reversed. We have another day with good volatility. As long as 1189.50 holds, the market will be okay. Beware of a reversal from near 1200 if 1195 can break/hold.

(Apr 22-10:52) mike: 92.50 must hold or down they go

(Apr 22-11:13) mike: 92.50 holding, but 95 gap fill has been good resist, its bearish under that. but if its taken out, then 98-99 a good resist

(Apr 22-11:31) mike: 92.50-93.00 resist now

(Apr 22-11:36) mike: The ES stalled out at the 1195 gap fill on the daily chart and rolled over again. The 1192.50 area now must be cleared and held just to get into nuetral territory.

(Apr 22-11:39) mike: that 89.50 needs to break, or we keep in a trading range

(Apr 22-12:34) mike: 94 area is 60ema on 5 min chart too. 92 now support that needs to hold. the way the mkt is acting today, we could go towards 98 or so before turning IF the bulls can push thru the 94.50-95.25 resist...

(Apr 22-12:54) mike: this pop should make lower high and reverse , wait for a stall
(Apr 22-12:59) mike: if they are going to roll over it should be starting in next 2 minutes and from under 1194.50. if not, not paying out as it normally does

(Apr 22-13:02) mike: ok, 98 could be in the cards now.

(Apr 22-13:19) mike: 94.75-94.25 shoud solid support on a pullback - trend support at 98.50 need to hold to keep from a drop

(Apr 22-13:35) mike: as of this morning open, near 1188 i recommened anyone in those w/ me be out of 2/3 of the put position . re establishing 1/3 up here near 1200 on es

(Apr 22-13:47) mike: 98 old resist now new support. a 123 type top possible forming on es. nq is keeping this bid up

(Apr 22-14:03) mike: The 1198 level broke and held and the trend up continues to the 1202-1203 zone so far. As long as the 1198 area is defended, then no damage is done. If it is broken, then more toppy action is happening. The NQ is leading the way, and that must get over 2038 and hold to avoid a bearish pattern.

(Apr 22-14:13) mike: big trading rannge this week, short at the top side, cover / buy at the bottom side.

(Apr 22-14:21) mike: quick rejection of 1202 resst. proof of supply to get thru

(Apr 22-14:33) mike: monday action was similar, big drop early, then good rally of 16.75 es points. range is 17.25 at 1203. 25.... still, this has gathered some momentum following nq so don't fade this ubless a scalp . 02.00-01.50 need to hold to keep this going

(Apr 22-14:39) mike: the nq parabolic move up needs to stay over 2032, otherwise that could trigger a reversal

(Apr 22-14:41) mike: i think we topped.
(Apr 22-14:43) mike: 02.00-01.50 needed to hold,

(Apr 22-14:51) mike: The ES popped over the 1202.50-1203.00 zone and reversed and now a break of 1198 would be a key spot to hold or else the market could get het late day.

(Apr 22-15:09) mike: gap days are often times trend days and thats been the case today. this could go up until last 15 minutes, BUT.a 123 pattern here, and that 1200 area should be pivotal. the bigger interday trend doesn't change unless that is broken and held. if it is, we could get hit pretty hard,

(Apr 22-15:22) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart at 1201 also. 1205 next. this should last until about 3:45pm if a pullback to 1201 holds

(Apr 22-15:45) mike: 1204 now good/ key supp its 3:45pm, that could be the high.

(Apr 22-16:11) mike: best trades all day at the close

 

Wednesday - April 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 21-10:06) mike: 1207.50-1208.50 on es and 2037.75-2038.25 on nq rejected for a decent drop. that could be a top, but still must break 1202 for a break down

(Apr 21-10:26) mike: just sell bounces under the highs
(Apr 21-10:30) mike: 1205 resist
(Apr 21-10:37) mike: The 1207.50-1208.50 zone on ES and 2037.75-2038.25 on NQ were reversed 30 minutes in to trading, and the ES dropped to 1202.25 so far. The upside appears to be limited, and if 1202 breaks without a quick reversal the downside could gather some momentum.

(Apr 21-10:46) mike: we went from resist to supp, both are key areas,. 04.50 now must hold or lows get tested.

(Apr 21-11:20) mike: if 1206 area tested again, adding to put position / the dow has a double top at its prior yearly high , and both es and nq rejected resist , nq dargging despite Apple earnigs

(Apr 21-11:28) mike: 1204 now good resist to sell

(Apr 21-11:34) mike: The first bounce off of 1202.25 reversed at 1206.00 and broke down thru 1202.00. The 1204.00-1204.50 area is good resistance on a bounce. The 1197.00-1196.50 should be tested if that 1204 area is not exceeded.

(Apr 21-11:39) mike: 1200.50 small reaist here

(Apr 21-11:48) mike: if they push up to 1202 and stall out, its a short. the transition to down would be ''proven'' short term.

(Apr 21-12:27) mike: lunchtime bounce. 04.50-05.00 resist. , 1201.50 needs to hold

(Apr 21-12:40) mike: a short/ scalp under 1205.5
(Apr 21-12:40) mike: 1203.50 a better buy on dip

(Apr 21-12:48) mike: need a hold here
(Apr 21-12:48) mike: the next pop will be sold
(Apr 21-12:50) mike: a wedge type pattern on 5 minute chart. trade a break like the ebook says

(Apr 21-12:56) mike: The ES bounced off of 1198 and made it to the 1204.50-1205.00 zone. A wedge pattern is forming, so a break of that sets up a good short on a bounce back that stalls/ reverses under 1205.00.

(Apr 21-13:35) mike: that should be the bounce high at 03

(Apr 21-13:50) mike: that 03 is gettging rejected / need to break/hold over 03 to avoid drop

(Apr 21-14:04) mike: they pop up, then drop 1 point quickly. that has been the ''easier'' trades, mostly scalps. can stay with shorts, ot scalp a long i f 1200 reverses, but this bounce feeble

(Apr 21-14:09) mike: am covering 1/3 of the puts on test of 1198 today if its reached . holding rest for another day

(Apr 21-14:17) mike: cover 1/3 puts into the emotion

(Apr 21-14:21) mike: 97.00-96.50 should be seen, just to fill small gap on daily chart at 96.50. the 1201.50-1202.00 now resist
(Apr 21-14:26) mike: 97.00 met, still 1 min chart 9 and 18 ema still trend guide

(Apr 21-14:32) mike: 98 now resist
(Apr 21-14:38) mike: 1194.00-1193.50 and 2019 nq is next good support

(Apr 21-14:59) mike: its a very feeble bounce, 1199-1200 good resist now

(Apr 21-15:21) mike: 98 is a key support. a test of that should / must hold, or the mkt will be in for more downside to 94-93 area . 1201-1202 strong resist now , should't be exceeded
(Apr 21-15:23) mike: another wedge
(Apr 21-15:25) mike: a bounce off 98 should fail

(Apr 21-15:34) mike: a better bid off 98 than thought, but mkt still vulnerable under 1201-1202. powder dry

(Apr 21-15:45) mike: 1201-1200 is pivotal the last few minutes, mkt ok unless broken

 

 

Tuesday - April 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 20-09:41) mike: 96.50 target 1

(Apr 20-09:47) mike: 99 was supp pre open, if broken then to 96.50 or lower

(Apr 20-09:58) mike: dow cash 11,000 is the support tht needs to break ,no damage done until then but not much upside potential

(Apr 20-10:20) mike: 96.50 should be seen

(Apr 20-10:25) mike: The gap up open was sold and the market is pulling back. If 1196.50 is tested and reversed it could cause a bounce. If that does not hold, then 1193-1192 would be key this morning.

(Apr 20-10:33) mike: 99 resist now

(Apr 20-11:22) mike: the double top can be it for the bounce, the 1199 is pivotal this morning , its supp

(Apr 20-11:36) mike: The 1197.00 level was tagged 3 times and a choppy bounce to test the highs occurred. It lookes like the NQ needs to get over 2018 and stick to avoid a pullback soon. If 1197 holds, then no damage, but if broken then a top could be in.

(Apr 20-12:01) mike: gap days are often times trend days. if 1200.50 holds, the upside stays intact. just beware of a reversal here if the 1203.50-1204.50 zone is rejected

(Apr 20-12:18) mike: 18 ema on 1 min hart is trend support. 1203.50 now needs to hold.

(Apr 20-12:29) mike: 13.50 needs to hold oe they topped

(Apr 20-12:36) mike: 1203.50 holds, but mkt getting tired, losing momentum... short the next pop

(Apr 20-12:43) mike: scaling into some puts up here

(Apr 20-12:52) mike: the 20ema on 5 min chart just was touched at 02.25, but a bounce is sill a short. 1199.75 more important support

(Apr 20-13:01) mike: The market pushed through its early highs, but the ES backed off after a poke over 1204.50 was reversed. The ES needs to stay over the 1202 area to avoid reversing. A move back to test 1204.50-1205.00 that stalls/ reverses sets up a good short, if only for a scalp.

(Apr 20-13:13) mike: mkt is vulnerable and ES needs to get over 1204 and stick, not reverse again, to avoid a drop towards 1199.75 or so

(Apr 20-13:45) mike: That should be it for the bounce, 1204 now key resist... channel break likely

(Apr 20-13:50) mike: The ES is holding over 1202.25 but struggling to get over 1203.75 on 3 tries. The market is vulnerable to a bigger drop if that 1204 area is not exceeded and then held on a pullback.

(Apr 20-14:04) mike: the 1.50 point range over the last 75 minutes, a break down should give a good move

(Apr 20-14:12) mike: 1201.00 symmtry, 1199.75 is the key area, and still is a gap on daily chart 1196.50 for support.

(Apr 20-14:23) mike: a test of the 1202 should hold, the mkt doesn't reverse unless they go thre and can not quickly turn back up..
(Apr 20-14:24) mike: only scalps in this environment.

(Apr 20-14:32) mike: ineed to see 1204 exceeded/ =held= to not focus short up here

(Apr 20-14:40) mike: tricky action, these pops keep getting rejected , but can not drop too much. waiting for clairity
(Apr 20-14:45) mike: The ES dropped to 1201.25 but that was quickly reversed. The upside should continue to be a struggle. If the ES breaks 1202 again and does not turn right back up, then the move could reverse.

(Apr 20-15:01) mike: 1203.50 old top of range needs to hold now or it gets a drop to 02
(Apr 20-15:04) mike: dbl top,

(Apr 20-15:16) mike: a bearish pattern, bounce should not take out 04.25
(Apr 20-15:18) mike: i got some puts up there earlier. a bounce, if we get one, add to it'

(Apr 20-15:27) mike: that 1202 needs to hold, otherwise a transition to the downside. it happens this afternoon or in the morning as long as the double top is on the charts

(Apr 20-15:44) mike: that 1204 should be it for the bounce, now a close under 1202
(Apr 20-15:45) mike: is a bearish / topping pattern
(Apr 20-15:45) mike: have a good rest of the day

(Apr 20-15:57) mike: be short something
(Apr 20-15:57) mike: obviously limited upside
(Apr 20-15:57) mike: take care

 

 

Monday - April 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 19-10:08) mike: 89.50-89.00 needs to hold , otherwise a reversal occurs

(Apr 19-10:23) mike: nq a better short at resist fyi
(Apr 19-10:23) mike: The lower open was bought and a bounce back to the 1193.00-1193.50 resistance zone on the ES and 2016.00-2016.50 zone on the NQ were reached. A pullback needs to stay over 1189.50-1189.00 on the ES to avoid a reversal of this trend. If the resistance zones are broken/held, then 1199.50-1200.50 would be next.

(Apr 19-10:31) mike: 92 should not be exceeded/ held -- 2010-11 resist on nq

(Apr 19-10:51) mike: pressure is on unless nq gets over 20072008 and not reverse , 1191.00-1191.5 es

(Apr 19-11:02) mike: the 90.00-90.50 area needs to be cleared to keep 2 sided day outlook alive. trend down otherwise, with nq leading the way
(Apr 19-11:09) mike: 2 min chart, 15 sma is trend guide here on the way down.

(Apr 19-11:13) mike: The market rejected good resistance and the move down has been a grind lower. That type of action is more sustainable than the quick moves. The ES would need to take out 1191.00-1191.50 and not quickly reverse to change this.

(Apr 19-11:48) mike: 88.00-88.50 very good resist now -- 1182.75-1182.00 a key support that must be reversed, else 1178.00-1177.50 zone is next

(Apr 19-12:00) mike: 85.00-85.50 good resist. the 81.50 globex low met. still is a short on bounces

(Apr 19-12:17) mike: The grind lower has the market breaking the Friday lows and very close to the 1178.00-1177.50 support. Still, the ES needs to get over 1185.00-1185.50 to dent the downside momentum, and 1188.50 to get out of trouble today. Otherwise, the grind could take the ES towards 1171-1170 area.

(Apr 19-12:18) mike: still following nq, its lead all the way down

(Apr 19-12:25) mike: that could be a low for a bit. watch for a stall near 85 for re short, a scalp down here

(Apr 19-12:49) mike: this area should be sold if we're going back down

(Apr 19-13:04) mike: 82.50 small supp

(Apr 19-13:15) mike: The bounce stalled out just under the 1185.00-1185.50 zone and pulled back. The market will stay vulnerable unless that area is cleared, and then held on a pullback. The NQ has been very weak, at it must clear 1994 to take some pressure off.

(Apr 19-13:17) mike: a look of a rising wedge per ebook

(Apr 19-13:49) mike: wedge about to break, the mkt still bearish under 85.00-85.50

(Apr 19-14:03) mike: wedge broke, this bounce should fail

(Apr 19-14:17) mike: tha reversal off 81 .00 means a good bid down there. suppy to eat thru, but the 84 area should hold, now to stay in uptrends, if broken then down they go.

(Apr 19-14:25) mike: The ES dropped to 1181.00 and quickly reversed from that 1181 level, takiking out 1185.00-1185.50 resistance. The 1185.00-1185.00 area needs to hold now, otherwise the the downside could get control again.

(Apr 19-14:27) mike: 9 18 ema on 1 min is trend support. 86.50-86.00 support

(Apr 19-14:34) mike: 87 now needs to hold

(Apr 19-14:43) mike: now trend spport at 88.50 at lowest

(Apr 19-14:54) mike: the 89.50-90.50 zone there, 2000 area nq, should be highs for this bounce - 85.50-8500 is the buy area if held / reversed. if 90.50 exceeded, a push back to the 93 area will be a key zon to hold.

(Apr 19-15:16) mike: 90.50 needs to continue to hold
(Apr 19-15:20) mike: broken by 1 tick, its stall ok over 90.25/90.00

(Apr 19-15:29) mike: if they can push thru 1193.00-1193.50 , a squeze towards 98.50-99.50 a good resist / shorting area

(Apr 19-15:37) mike: failed to push thru resistance. a bounce is sold under 93 resist - 123 type top possible here.

(Apr 19-15:46) mike: the mkt is ok to end the day, 1190.25 is a transition area now. only a break/ hold of that turns em back down
(Apr 19-15:46) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday - April 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 16-09:18) mike: 1205-1206 area good initial resist

(Apr 16-09:52) mike: 1206 area filled gap on daily chart, and was initial supp. a key resist now.

(Apr 16-10:02) mike: The gap down open was bought, but the 1206.50-1205.50 zone was as far as they bounced before rolling over. The drop to the 1200.50-1199.50 zone held so far, but the 1204 area must be cleared to get into nuetral ground, and over 1206 to get out of trouble.

(Apr 16-10:22) mike: from resist to supp back to resist... 04.00 needs to hold, else this is a 6 point range this morning

(Apr 16-10:32) mike: 1204 broke/ held so far and is pivotal. mkt ok as long as it holds / it reverses if broken.
(Apr 16-10:36) mike: sell em aginst 1206,
(Apr 16-10:41) mike: tht was the fastest 123 reversal in years. bounces should all fail. stay w/ shorts under 1204.50-1206.00 zone

(Apr 16-10:48) mike: The ES bounced to 1206.00 and when 1204 broke the downside was fast to 1197.50. The Goldman news isn't good and the market is fragile already. Unless 1206 is exceeded, and not reversed, the market is vulnerable and the 1192.50-1191.50 might be seen on this leg down.

(Apr 16-10:57) mike: 1192.50 zone met. still, its broken down and bounces should be sold . 97.5 resist

(Apr 16-11:11) mike: The 1192.50-1191.50 was reached and a bounce to 1197.75 failed. The market is under pressure and a move back over 1202 would be needed to arrest the downside momentum.

(Apr 16-11:14) mike: 1188-87 next

(Apr 16-11:31) mike: bounces are 5.25 pts so far. the pops that stall are good entries if you aren't short from higher

(Apr 16-11:56) mike: 1191-1192 is good resist, it must be cleared to get a decent bounce. gap days are often times trend days, so stay w/ the shot side

(Apr 16-12:08) mike: The break of the 1192.50-1191.50 zone brought in more selling down to 1184.50 so far. That 1191.50-1192.50 is good resistance. Gap days are often times trend days so stay with shorts unless that 1192.50 is exceeded/ held.

(Apr 16-12:35) mike: 1185-1183 is where the mkt had transition to the upside on the 8th and 9th. if they break under that zone, 1178-1177 is next. 1171 is major . nq leader stay w/ its trend

(Apr 16-12:51) mike: kind of like at new highs, the new lows are being reversed. if 82.50 is tested, scalp a long trade, just don't overstay that side just yet. the vix has jumped 23% and trin over 3.00, those seen near trading lows. the nq should be a better play on a long.

(Apr 16-13:09) mike: 1 min chart 9/18 ema at 88.50-88.00 must hold

(Apr 16-13:16) mike: 86.5\0-86.00 small support

(Apr 16-13:28) mike: 86.50 held, but no gusto on bounce, a 123 type top possible.

(Apr 16-13:44) mike: The ES bounced to 1189.50 and the NQ reached 2011.50 before backing off. The 1186 area on the ES will need to hold, otherwise the lows could be tested. The Vix jumped 23% and the Trin is over 3.00 so a test of the lows could be reversed.

(Apr 16-14:05) mike: a good cluster of resistance around 92.50 -- option expiration, lows in place for now

(Apr 16-14:13) mike: a drop to 89.00-88.50 will need to hold now
(Apr 16-14:17) mike: if 92 can hold then 97.50-98.00 is next

(Apr 16-14:21) mike: The 1186 level held, and 1192.50 was exceeded. However, the move up started early and a decent pullback needs to hold 1189 now to stay out of trouble.

(Apr 16-14:23) mike: 92 should be key now, if broken then a pullback is underway.

(Apr 16-14:35) mike: 92 was reversed. need to get over 93.50 to avoid drop here
(Apr 16-14:35) mike: 89.00-88.50 supp

(Apr 16-15:03) mike: 89.00-88.50 tested, but not crazy abot longs here yet
(Apr 16-15:05) mike: 91.25should be tough to break / hold

(Apr 16-15:11) mike: 91 rejected. that should be pivotal to end the day.

 

 

Thursday - April 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 15-10:00) mike: short under the 06 level - turn 30 minutes in - nq weaker
(Apr 15-10:04) mike: to break the trend, the little double bottom at 04.75 needs to break

(Apr 15-10:20) mike: The lower open was bought, then after a bounce the pullback made a little double bottom at 1204.75 and rallied to the 1207.75 resistance so far. As long as 1206 is held on a pullback, the market is still in decent shape but if broken/ held then 1203.50 must hold in a drop.

(Apr 15-10:33) mike: its a stair step higher until a break of 1206.50. 1208 needs to be taken out soon or they break.
(Apr 15-10:37) mike: 1208 now small supp. 09.50 symmetry for resist. a short for a scalp

(Apr 15-10:47) mike: if you sold 1209.50 scratch it, need to break  08.50 now
(Apr 15-10:48) mike: if 08.50 breaks, the the next bounce would be a short

(Apr 15-11:11) mike: that 1210.50 so far has stalled out. if not for strong nq its a good short . still iis
(Apr 15-11:12) mike: tight stop and for a scalp to 09 or so
(Apr 15-11:15) mike: 09 held so far but its a top for awhile up there, if 08 breaks its then 06 key supp

(Apr 15-11:20) mike: just short bounces now, even if they bounce off 08, the reward/ risk much better short near 1210

(Apr 15-11:43) mike: if nq breaks 2031 it will be the first break of 15 sma on 13 minute timeframe sine tuesday afternoon
(Apr 15-11:47) mike: they need to get over 1208 and hold to get out of trouble now

(Apr 15-12:10) mike: 1206.75 small resist - 2 min chart 15 sma guide on bounces so far

(Apr 15-12:19) mike: should fail to hold this bounce amd stop near 07.50 and drop thru 04.50 soon, otherwise a trading range day

(Apr 15-12:27) mike: 07.50 did its job, now a push thru 04.50 is needed to put pressure on

(Apr 15-12:58) mike: 1204.50-1204.00 is pivotal now... a transition zone from yesterday/ this morning. and if 1207.50 not exceeded, its a head/ shoulders ''neck line''

(Apr 15-13:21) mike: as log as 1208 holds its still okay. if broken, then still in range

(Apr 15-13:33) mike: The ES made a lower low by 1 tick and turned up quickly. That 1204.50-1203.50 zone is now a key support today. A pullback should hold there or above, otherwise a break of that zone could change things. A move that takes out 1210.50 resistance should have trouble around the 1212.00-1212.50 zone.

(Apr 15-13:45) mike: 1208.50 needs to hold \
(Apr 15-13:47) mike: if not held, 06.75 next key spot

(Apr 15-14:05) mike: 1208 now good supp. if going to take out highs, they need to hold
(Apr 15-14:06) mike: 1212.00-1212.50 is key area

(Apr 15-14:38) mike: real top heavy, look for a scalp short up there

(Apr 15-14:43) mike: this could take a spill if 1210 not seen in next few minutes , by 3pm latest if not now

(Apr 15-14:51) mike: The ES bounced back to 1209.75 and has churned between that high and 1208 on the bottom side. That 1208 needs to hold or they roll over. If new highs made, look for 1212.00-1212.50, possibly 1218 area if they can cause a squeeze higher.

(Apr 15-15:09) mike: have a short of some sort on,, this could give way if cant get over 1210 without rejection
(Apr 15-15:11) mike: a rejection of 1210 a scalp short.

(Apr 15-15:16) mike: 1208.25 is good supp, shorts are just scalps for today . must hold that or trends can roll over again

(Apr 15-15:28) mike: 1208.75-1209.25 good rest, should not be exceeded

(Apr 15-15:38) mike: a bounce should n't get thru 1208.00-1208.50
(Apr 15-15:40) mike: 1206.00-1205.50 support, a close under that is bearish
(Apr 15-15:41) mike: enjoy the rest of your day

 

 

Wednesday - April 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 14-12:32) mike: There was a reversal after 20 minutes of trading, then the 1195.50-1196.25 initial resistance zone turned into support and the ES has made it to the 1202.50-1204.00 zone. As long as 1200 holds the trends are strongly to the upside. The 1196 area in now the key support that must hold on a pullback.

(Apr 14-13:08) mike: trend up day unless 1200 broken
(Apr 14-13:09) mike: a dip due tho, careful long here , a dip better odds

(Apr 14-13:38) mike: nq topped, if 2019 isnt held / reversed. es needs to stay over 1202.75

(Apr 14-13:45) mike: 02.75-03.25 resist

(Apr 14-13:54) mike: must get back over 02.75 resist and hold to avoid roll over
(Apr 14-13:57) mike: Fed's Beige Book in 2 minutes , if short keep stop in place / cover part i front of this

(Apr 14-14:10) mike: The ES poked over 1204 and reversed, but the market still has a good bid on pullbacks. The 1201.50-1200.50 area is key support now. As long as a pullback/ drop can bounce off of that on a the upside stays intact. If that is broken this afternoon, then that 1204 area could be a top and a reversal back towards the 1196 area would then be possible.

(Apr 14-14:12) mike: a 123 top pattern is possible, use the 2 min chart for a trigger if that sets up

(Apr 14-15:14) mike: dow 11100 now looks like its pivotal up here. must stay over, or can reverse

(Apr 14-15:33) mike: 04.50 should hold

 

Tuesday - April 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 13-10:00) mike: 92.50 is strong resist and a short w/ tight stop

(Apr 13-10:23) mike: The market is under pressure and only a break/ hold over 1192 on the ES and 1998 on the NQ can change this short term. If 1188 is not held then 1182.25-1182.00 is the major area that must be reversed to avoid a top.

(Apr 13-10:27) mike: 89.50-90.25 good resist

(Apr 13-10:35) mike: puts bought yesterday, cover half em down here

(Apr 13-10:44) mike: 1185.00-1184.50 is pivotal. if broken, must be quikly reversed, else 82 is next, then 78-77 is next major area. 88.00-88.50 resist here

(Apr 13-10:53) mike: 1188.00-1188.50 now new resist. 91.25 a key resist

(Apr 13-11:10) mike: The ES dropped to the 1185.00-1184.50 zone and bounced. The 1188.00-1188.50 area must be cleared and held on a dip, otherwise the downside has more to go.

(Apr 13-11:27) mike: 88 needs to hold now , or rolls over again - 89.50-90.25 next resist key area now

(Apr 13-11:51) mike: slow motion, looks vulnerable , wegde can break
(Apr 13-11:54) mike: 89.25 early low, then the break dn level. it is strong resist. its also 11,000 dow cash

(Apr 13-12:14) mike: if 87.50 is't broken, a pop back to 89.25-89.75 is a cluster of resist, should be a key zone

(Apr 13-12:22) mike: 89.75 should be tested , 88.75 should hold

(Apr 13-13:11) mike: The ES took out 1188.50 and is stair-stepping higher. The bounce off of 1185 support keeps the market in a range, however the 1193-1194 area should offer good resistance. The 1189.50-1189.00 area is now trend support, and if broken then the move reverses.

(Apr 13-13:18) mike: if they get ck up to 92 area, short w/ tgt stop
(Apr 13-13:20) mike: nq 1999-2001 zone shoud see bids dry up, sellers step in. did once, a test is key now

(Apr 13-13:39) mike: unless / until there is a break of the stair step up, at 90.75 now, the better odds are buying dips. if there is a reversal pattern, then scalp short, but there has been a good bid on dips so far

(Apr 13-14:01) mike: 92.50 needs to hold now or its a red flag . its trend up otherwise
(Apr 13-14:07) mike: short 93-94 resist , stop just over resist for a scalp. stalling a bit - a scalp only right nw

(Apr 13-14:13) mike: if 92 breaks, then its a top for awhile

(Apr 13-14:20) mike: The ES stalled out at 1193.50 and backed off, however unless the 1192 area is broken and not quickly reversed, the market is okay. If broken then the trends should turn.

(Apr 13-14:28) mike: a 123 type top pattern on es, 93 shouldn't be exceeded to roll over
(Apr 13-14:30) mike: 91.50 symmetry/ key area late day
(Apr 13-14:33) mike: very fast reversal at 91.50, dips have been 1.50 points. that is now important to stay over to avoid a reversal

(Apr 13-14:56) mike: prairie dog
(Apr 13-14:59) mike: can keep sneaking down

(Apr 13-15:05) mike: 91.50-91.00 needs to hold now, or the mkt will be under pressure to 89-88 again . 93.50-94.00 obviously good resist, 2002 area on NQ in front of INTC earnings

(Apr 13-15:21) mike: 94.25-94.00 should / must hold, 1192 -1191.50 is the key area to stay over
(Apr 13-15:28) mike: 94.25-94.00 held, needs to stay over or 92 will be tested
(Apr 13-15:32) mike: The 1192 level held and the ES reached 1195.75 but if 1194 breaks they can get sold to 1192.00-1191.50 pivotal support

(Apr 13-15:55) mike: puts re buy 1/2 covered this morning

 

 

Monday - April 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 12-08:50) mike: the ES reached 1198.50 resistance last night about 10 min or so after gapping up open - they haven't been back there since. that might be the top for futures. nq was 2001 too. so, the short side on a decent bounce has very good odds. 1191 looks pivotal in the early going for support.

(Apr 12-09:10) mike: ok, good supp at 91 on es and 1990 on nq. mkt may not rally too far before dropping, but no damage done unless that support broken

(Apr 12-09:47) mike: 1194.25-1195.00 sell zone, stop just over 95
(Apr 12-09:48) mike: 93.50-93.00 supp must hold

(Apr 12-09:56) mike: that could be a top, cover part at 92.75 or better here, keep part on for swing trade in case

(Apr 12-10:21) mike: The 1194.25-1195.00 zone was sold and the ES dropped 4 points from 1194.75 to 1190.75 before a bounce. That high should not be exceeded, but if it is, the ES reached 1198.50 last night, which is the 1198.50-1199.50 zone, and that should be rejected if reached today. A break of the 1191 area that is not quickly reversed would change things.

(Apr 12-10:33) mike: as long as 92 holds, trends stay up so scalp trade shorts att resist until thats broken / held

(Apr 12-10:42) mike: 92 needs to hold, its bottom of a wedge/ triangle.
(Apr 12-10:45) mike: can scalp long at 92 also, but if broken look out ,

(Apr 12-11:17) mike: sell em, tight stop just over high 3 ticks... a wedge type pattern, nq weakening , stall at resist.
(Apr 12-11:22) mike: 93.50 should be rejected if going lower

(Apr 12-11:30) mike: The ES bounced to 1194.50, stalled, then backed off again. Unless that area is cleared, the market is under pressure and shorts are better odds trade down to the 1188 area.

(Apr 12-11:35) mike: a bounce to the wedge break area is normally sold,

(Apr 12-11:45) mike: per usual of late, the drops are bought up after a quick, small dip. 94.50 has been good resist, but staying over 1188 keeps the mkt from gettig hit hard. if there is a drop to there its a buy if reversed

(Apr 12-13:09) mike: The ES reached 1191.75 on the pullback and crawled its way to 1195.50 so far. As long as the 1193-1192 zone is not broken, we could still see the 1198.50-1199.50 zone but a failure up there could start a decent pullback.

(Apr 12-13:27) mike: 94.50 now supp, needs to hold to try for 98.50 - if broken, they roll over
(Apr 12-13:33) mike: 94.50 holding . one thing to watch, vix 15 and change, a reversal would give 4 sell sigs. that and a break/ hold under 94.50 here

(Apr 12-13:55) mike: buying puts up here, very cheap and mkt in position to sell off soon

(Apr 12-14:13) mike: The ES popped up to 1195.75 but that was sold and we got a pullback to 1192.75 so far. That 1193-1192 area, along with 1994 on the NQ, need to hold or else the market could roll over.

(Apr 12-15:09) mike: mkk doesn't get nervous as long as 93 keeps holding - these pops get rejected, but things don't change unless a break/ hold of that area

(Apr 12-15:16) mike: it could bounce a bit more, but the next good swing is down , not buying nothing up here
(Apr 12-15:19) mike: 1994 on nq is equivalent to 93 on es, key supp
(Apr 12-15:24) mike: 94 a short.
(Apr 12-15:26) mike: 95 should not be seen again. it will be gift short if tested
 

 

Friday - April 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 09-09:42) mike: key resist rejected on nq , 1983-84 must be exceeded/ held on this bounce
(Apr 09-09:48) mike: more than 2 point drop, dynamics changed

(Apr 09-10:11) mike: 86.50

(Apr 09-10:13) mike: The 1186.25 level on ES and 1981.50-1982.50 zone on the NQ were sold in the first 5 minutes and dropped to 1183.25 and 1975.00, respectively, before turning back up. The sprint to the 1188.00-1189.00 zone fizzled but 1186.00 needs to break/hold for a reversal.

(Apr 09-10:32) mike: sell pops, stops over the high. 86 resist , 83 supp key now , scalp until
(Apr 09-10:32) mike: range breaks

(Apr 09-10:54) mike: 86 is ''must hold'' again , 1982 on nq more important it looks

(Apr 09-11:05) mike: 1980.25 on NQ had aggressive buyers, that is the key area i'm watching below - we top if not held

(Apr 09-11:23) mike: The reversal off 1188.25 and break of 1186 accelerated to 1183.00 and they quickly reversed. The market will be in decent shape as long as the 1184.50 level on ES and 1980.25 on NQ are broken.

(Apr 09-11:36) mike: that dbl top ar resist should be it for the bounce, but good supp at 86 now

(Apr 09-11:51) mike: th 88-89 has been sold, but still mkt is ok . but if a dip breaks 87, then a wedge is breaking and then things change

(Apr 09-12:05) mike: if not for nq being strong this would roll over from 88-89 resist, nq needs to break 1983 area to turn trends

(Apr 09-12:20) mike: The ES stalled out at the 1188-1189 zone but must break/ hold under 1187.50-1187.00 to turn the trends. The bulls are in charge unless we get that break down.

(Apr 09-12:34) mike: small shorts under the high
(Apr 09-12:36) mike: 87 is support. need to break / hold under it to put any pressure on

(Apr 09-12:54) mike: 85.75 is 60ema and a small last trapped at 86.00 -- key area as is 1983-81 nq

(Apr 09-13:07) mike: if this bounce can not get over 87 its trouble for the bulls
(Apr 09-13:11) mike: 84.50 on es and especially the 1980 on nq a key support. if not quickly reversed, they get momentum instead.

(Apr 09-13:23) mike: this bounce should not take out the highs. at least not the dow or es. the nq is under no danger unless 1980.25 is broken

(Apr 09-13:36) mike: this is key spot. tough call, es and dow should have trouble but nq on its high

(Apr 09-14:04) mike: The break took the ES to 1185.25 and the bounce stopped at the break down areas. This will be a trading range into the close unless the 1188 level is broken/ held or 1184.50 is broken/ held.

(Apr 09-15:07) mike: 86.50 should be important to hold , 1984 nq

(Apr 09-15:14) mike: 86.50 held so far. it must hold of mkt ends in a down trend 88 still good resist to clear / hold

(Apr 09-15:49) mike: better bounce from 86.50 than i thought, but new highs across the board, sets up a nice trade monday.

 

 

Thursday - April 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Apr 8, 2010 10:00 mike: if you have puts, cover 1/2 - can re add on bounce
Apr 8, 2010 10:05 mike: must get over 74 and hold on pullback to turn up, still a short

Apr 8, 2010 10:20 mike: The market dropped hard on the open and the ES has churned between 1171.50 and 1174.50. The 1175 level will need to be exceeded/ held to get a bounce going. IF that happens it should set up a good short if 1177.50-1178.50 is not cleared by much.

Apr 8, 2010 10:37 mike: 75.00-74.50 should hold or back down

Apr 8, 2010 10:46 mike: a scalp long only over 74.50, its looking toppy

Apr 8, 2010 10:55 mike: exit any longs


Apr 8, 2010 11:05 mike: 75 held, the 77.50-78.50 will still be possible. if 75.00-7450 breaks, then trends roll over .

Apr 8, 2010 11:09 mike: The 1174.50-1175.00 area was broken and held on a dip and the 1177.50-1178.50 zone was tested. This should be tough to break/ hold but the market doesn't get hurt unless that 1175.00-1174.50 area breaks.

Apr 8, 2010 11:13 mike: 3 numbers all at 77 area, a short if tested

(Apr 08-11:33) mike: the 75 level needs to hold, or quickly reverse, or there is break down . its 1966 on nq

(Apr 08-11:57) mike: The ES backed off from 1177.25 but held the 1175.00 support and turned back up and reached 1178.50 so far. The market has been making highs in the early afternoon lately, and then gets hit with a selloff. For now though, as long as a pullback holds at 1176.50 or higher it's trend up towards the 1180.50-1181.50 area which will likely be sold.

(Apr 08-12:03) mike: 1 min chart 18 ema needs to continue holding. at 77.75 now

(Apr 08-12:19) mike: the nq is strong but near good resist at 1975-76. not a short unless reversed. 1178 needs to hold or its first sign of a change

(Apr 08-12:30) mike: The 1180.50-1181.50 area was tested but the 1179.75-1179.25 area needs to break to change the dynamics. If broken, the 1178 will be key to hold to avoid testing strong support at 1175.00-1174.50.

(Apr 08-12:42) mike: they act a bit tired / extended, but a pullback only starts if 79.75-79.25 breaks. its small s, and held so far
(Apr 08-12:46) mike: 2 min chart 15 sma has been held, its 79.75 now tioo

(Apr 08-12:58) mike: The ES held at 1179.75 and popped up to 1181.25 so far, a resistance area. The move is getting extended, but unless the NQ weakens and the ES breaks 1179.75-1179.25 is broken the trends are up and the market is okay.

(Apr 08-13:12) mike: sell a test of the highs. nq finally shows rejection

(Apr 08-13:25) mike: a 123 type top, 82.75 shouldnt break -
(Apr 08-13:26) mike: a break under 81.50 changes dynmices, then 79.75 is key supp

(Apr 08-13:36) mike: just scalp long unless 81.50 breaks. or they see higher levels and fail . trend up day, shallow dips and grind higher. dips are buys unless reversal

(Apr 08-13:45) mike: nq reached resist 2, its 1084.50-1085.00 on es , a pop up there should be sold for scalp

(Apr 08-13:55) mike: thats it for the move up it looks, sell a bounce . biggest dip was 2.25 pts, makes 81.50-81.00 even more important

(Apr 08-14:00) mike: The NQ rejected its 1981.25-1982.00 zone and the ES made a small double top so that could mean a top is in for today. It has been trend up, with only a 2.25 point dip, so a break of 1181.25 would put some pressure on.

(Apr 08-14:03) mike: nq is a short if it doesnt accelerate, but pops to 1979-80 and reverses - 82.75-8300 es

(Apr 08-14:20) mike: i sold 1979 nq, tight stop and needs to roll over very soon
(Apr 08-14:23) mike: a scalp with small target, giving it about 10 seconds to roll over now
(Apr 08-14:25) mike: not doing as expected with a fast break. - out at 78.50

(Apr 08-14:44) mike: if there is still trend up into the last 30 minutes or so, i'm re buying the puts IF things look right. back to back trend day is rare . that last was a good trade, got in close to 1185, out this morning near 1173. fyi, i think next month i may do a part of a day or 2 a week via voice thru this.

(Apr 08-14:52) mike: The ES held right at 1181.25 and turned back up, keeping the trend day intact. The 1182.50 level, or a dip of 2 points, will continue to hold if trend is going to stay intact. If the market is still in trend up mode near the close, a few put options could be bought. Back to back trend-up days are not normal, and new highs have been rejected lately.

(Apr 08-15:09) mike: 85 was resist, nq really gave up at its 1982 area. sell a bounce, its great odds short

(Apr 08-15:20) mike: the 20ema on 5 min chart lines up w/ the 2 point dips. must stay over 82.50 to avoid trouble now. but still like short nq on a bounce that fizzles near the close then

(Apr 08-15:35) mike: upside losing momentum on each push higher, the 83.00-82.50 need to hold to close well, or else this can drop quickly

(Apr 08-15:47) mike: need to stay over 83 or its bearish for the morning. have a good rest of your day

 

 

Wednesday - April 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 07-10:00) mike: 85 strong / key resist now - cluster of resist there

(Apr 07-10:14) mike: The 1182.50-1082.00 zone was quickly reversed just after the open but 1185.00 was sold and a test of 1182.00 was quickly reversed again. That's key support. The 1185.00-1185.50 area is good resistance and it must be cleared and held to avoid another drop.

(Apr 07-10:25) mike: mkt very overbought short term. a rally will not stick . my focus is short , if there is a long its only a scalp

(Apr 07-10:46) mike: 82.50-83.00 good resist

(Apr 07-11:00) mike: The ES made a 123 type top from 1184.75 and when 1182.50 broke the downside was fast to 1179.00 so far. The 1182.50-1183.50 area is good resistance and should not be exceeded if 1177.50-1176.75 area is going to be tested/ broken today.

(Apr 07-11:22) mike: a pullback from 8250-83.00 resist should hold 81.00 to be in a range, or they rolling over to test lows.

(Apr 07-11:33) mike: 83.50 is 60ema on 5 min resist. 82 needs to hold or its a reversal

(Apr 07-11:50) mike: a 2 sided day so far, the 10900 area on Dow cash, the 1178-1177 area on ES, 1973-1971 on NQ are the good support. if this can take out 83 and hold, then mkt is going to try 1 more time to get to Dow 11,000 or test 1188. if we break 81.50, then the pressure is back on the downside

(Apr 07-12:00) mike: The 1182.50-1183.50 area only caused a small pullback so far. As long as 1181.50 can hold, the market is not going to get hit with selling. However, if that is broken and not quickly reversed then a drop back to test/ break the 10900 area on the Dow cash, 1178/1177 on the ES and 1973-1972 on the NQ.

(Apr 07-12:07) mike: short/ tight stop just over 83.50 resist/ 1982 on nq
(Apr 07-12:08) mike: a scalp. it has 1 minute to break lower or i take another look
(Apr 07-12:11) mike: await better setup of keep stop

(Apr 07-12:16) mike: 82 needs to hold or they roll over. stagnate range right now.
(Apr 07-12:20) mike: thats it for the bounce .

(Apr 07-12:59) mike: 81.50 to 83.50 range. these narrow range breakouts have been causing decent moves - be on your toes, but may need to wait for the 220-240pm eastern timeframe for a good move

(Apr 07-13:19) mike: We are getting two-sided action as the dops and bounces are not able to stick. For now, as long as the 1186.00-1186.50 is not exceeded/ held then the market is still vulnerable. A drop though should hold the 1182.50-1181.50 zone to keep the market from rolling over.

(Apr 07-13:30) mike: initial resist sold, but now pullback should hold 84.50-84.00 or a roll over

(Apr 07-13:40) mike: buying a few puts up here. 1 more push higher would be ideal but may not get that .
(Apr 07-13:48) mike: a bounce to near 85.50 that reverses is a very good short . may not get there tho

(Apr 07-14:08) mike: a 123 type top- but 83 on es and 1979 nq need to break to push lower

(Apr 07-14:21) mike: stay with shorts , a bounce is a gift if 85-86 tested or they stall out under it on a bounce

(Apr 07-14:31) mike: if you bought puts we'll add on a bounce or break down
(Apr 07-14:39) mike: bottom of the range, a ''must hold'' - 82.50-83.00 resist now

(Apr 07-14:53) mike: this area on the Dow and 1179 on es and especially 1973-1972 on nq - must stay over or its a bigger drop than ''normal''
(Apr 07-15:00) mike: 77.50-76.75 , then 1174.75-1174.00 next supp.

(Apr 07-15:12) mike: The market collapse picked up steam after 1181.50 broke and the 1174.75-1174.00 was reached, but this is the start of a bigger drop so stay with the short side down to 1167-1166 or so on this move.

(Apr 07-15:18) mike: that 73 area could be a low for a bit, eye on 1 min chart 9 and 18 ema trend guide - if broken then 77.50-7850 resist

(Apr 07-15:43) mike: nq at 1973 old supp, es at the 77.50-7850. a close over is needed to avoid more drop iin the morning

(Apr 07-15:55) mike: enjoy the rest of your day

 

 

Tuesday - April 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 06-9:15) mike: 1177.50-1176.75 is key early supp

(Apr 06-10:04) mike: 81.00-81.50 is a transition area. it must break that to get into neutral. 1177.50-1176.75 key, must hold or a top in

(Apr 06-10:21) mike: The lower open reversed from just over the 1177.50-1176.75 support zone and has chopped back to 1182.00 so far. The 1180 level needs to hold to avoid a test of the lows.

(Apr 06-10:35) mike: 81.50-81.00 needs to hold or this wedge breaks. 1970 on nq.

(Apr 06-11:04) mike: 81.50 is solid so far, needs to stay over that

(Apr 06-11:18) mike: The ES found support at 1181.50 and must hold that to avoid breaking a wedge pattern.

(Apr 06-11:24) mike: 83.50 from yesterday rejected, 82.50/81.50 must hold or we get a reversal

(Apr 06-11:32) mike: 1184.50-1186.00 area will be sold for a scalp at the least - if not reached soon, mktt can drop to 82.50 quickly
(Apr 06-11:38) mike: 83.00-82.50 supp / key area on a dip from resist

(Apr 06-11:52) mike: 123 top type pattern. now 84.50 shouldnt be exceeded/ held and 83.00-82.50 must break soon
(Apr 06-11:57) mike: if short scalp out of part at 82.50 or better
(Apr 06-12:01) mike: 84.50 it should not be exceeded/ held / 82.50 still looks its key. the NQ needs to break 1973 to turn this down though

(Apr 06-12:22) mike: The ES tested and rejected the 1184.50-1186.00 zone and a pullback needs to hold 1182.50-1181.50 area and reverse to avoid a decent sized drop. The Fed Minutes at 2pm should be a market mover. If the 1182.50 level is not held, then 1177.50-1176.75 could be in play and that is a good buying opportunity if they double bottom down there. IF the highs are exceeded and not quickly reversed, then the 1189.25-1190.25 is the next big hurdle on the upside.

(Apr 06-12:34) mike: just short bounce, risk reward better

(Apr 06-13:14) mike: the 82 support is also 60ema on 5 min, no break/ hold here yet, but mkt continues to hold on dips so if this holds 83-82 is a buy for a move higher into Fed minutes. then things can get volatile

(Apr 06-13:36) mike: they're having trouble to the high per normal. now need to stay over 82 or things change

(Apr 06-13:52) mike: same kind of day going into the fed minutes. resist 84.50-86.00 on ES, 1978.75-1980.50 on NQ

(Apr 06-14:12) mike: 83.75-83.00 now key supp, must stay over that on next dip to keep trend up intact

(Apr 06-14:25) mike: The ES held 1182.50 and after breaking 1184.50 it held on a dip and the trend up move is intact. The 1184.50 level should hold, but beware of a reversal if the 1189.25-1190.25 zone is reached.

(Apr 06-14:30) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18ema is trend supp- 86.00 on es and 1983 nq is supp
(Apr 06-14:36) mike: in melt up mode over 1186 -- need to hold to stay trend up. 1190 still potential reversal area

(Apr 06-14:45) mike: 87.25-86.75 needs to hold, a close indicators w/ these internals will be in sell territory for 1st time in a month or so

(Apr 06-15:08) mike: nq is tired and 1978 area can be tested, but it will hold if not a top in place
(Apr 06-15:15) mike: vix also made lowest low in last 18-24 months , red flags

(Apr 06-15:27) mike: fyi, i'm keeping partial short overnight
(Apr 06-15:27) mike: my indicators are set up for a decent drop
(Apr 06-15:29) mike: a close under 84.50 is bearish too

(Apr 06-15:38) mike: 84.50 was morning/ early afternoon high area, then 60ema now at 84.50 - its a negative closing under that .

(Apr 06-15:48) mike: 86 is a transition/ resist and mkt is under pressure unless broken/ held. enjoy the rest of the day

 

 

Monday - April 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 05-12:10) mike: The higher open was sold and a quick drop to 1174.50 on the ES was reversed back up and the move stopped at 1183.85 so far. If the 1182 area is broken by much, and not able to get over 1182.50 again, then the trend turns but there will be good support at the 1175-1174 zone.

(Apr 05-12:20) mike: getting adjusted here. short nq on a pop

(Apr 05-12:26) mike: if there is a break under 82 and its not reversed, then 78.75-78.00 would be a key area to hold. a bounce from there that stops and turns back down near 82 would mea topping action/ transition lower

(Apr 05-13:17) mike: 81.75 needs to hold to stay in this 2 point range on ES. mkt is in trend day unless that breaks and not quickly reversed

(Apr 05-13:32) mike: can buy a dip but tight stop 81.75 still must/ should hold
(Apr 05-13:38) mike: sell a pop up
(Apr 05-13:38) mike: 84 stp
(Apr 05-13:41) mike: 83.25 should not be exceeded / held now
(Apr 05-13:42) mike: 81.00-80.25 support, minor but a place to cover

(Apr 05-13:49) mike: 82.00 resist is this has momentum
(Apr 05-13:54) mike: 82 broke and held so far, but 81.00-80.25 and 1972-1971 NQ are pivotal supp now - if not held then trends change
(Apr 05-14:00) mike: The 1183.50 level was a strong resistance, and the market pulled back and broke the 1182 level and stayed under 1182.50 on the bounce so far. To avoid potential trouble, the 1183.25 level needs to be cleared and then held on a pullback. That and 1976 on the NQ.

(Apr 05-14:15) mike: this plays out nicely if stay under 82.25 and break 80.25

(Apr 05-14:32) mike: now that 82.50 broke, the mkt is not going to fall apart unless 81 breaks/ not reversed. the NQ looks vulnerable thol and good resist 1975-76

(Apr 05-14:48) mike: The 1182.50 level was cleared so the market should not get in to trouble unless 1181 level on the ES is broken in the last hour. If there is a pop up into the 1184.50-1186.00 zone and it's rejected, then that could start a decent pullback.

(Apr 05-14:59) mike: little wedge break, a test of the high that reverses is a good short up here

(Apr 05-15:11) mike: if 82.75 not exceeded soon this cold snow-ball lower
(Apr 05-15:16) mike: 81.50-81.00 has been good supp, but they can't stay over 83.50 for very long so upside limited

(Apr 05-15:44) mike: should have a high in place nq especially
(Apr 05-15:48) mike: if 83 reverses again its top heavy- 1975-1977 on nq same . top of tiny range. have a good rest of the day

 

 

Thursday - April 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Apr 01-09:09) mike: 1173.25-1173.75 shown some rejection, but the ES will be ok as long as 1170 holds

(Apr 01-10:11) mike: 74.50 needs to hold . the high made 30 minutes in, a top for a bit.
(Apr 01-10:16) mike: 123 tp here
(Apr 01-10:20) mike: 76.50 ES and especially 1975 NQ are good resist now

(Apr 01-10:29) mike: The market gapped up on the open and rallied 30 minutes before turning down from 1177.50. That should be a top, shorting against that down to 1172.50-1171.50 which must hold to avoid a reversal pattern.

(Apr 01-11:01) mike: 72.50 tested, 1170.50 target to fill gap on daily chart
(Apr 01-11:08) mike: the NQ has been more steady down. better short today
(Apr 01-11:15) mike: 72.50 quickly reversed. this bounce should fail under 74.75 to keep downside going , 1985 NQ
(Apr 01-11:16) mike: 1965 on nq is resist

(Apr 01-11:21) mike: The bounces failed and the 1172.50-1171.50 zone was reached, but as long as the NQ stays under 1966 its trouble for the market.

(Apr 01-11:49) mike: NQ resist at 1965 must be cleared or the bounce is vulnerable here

(Apr 01-12:22) mike: nq 1965-66 still the key resist it looks, if 72 breaks then its not good and 70.50 is in the cards

(Apr 01-12:34) mike: 70.75-70.50 area will be a key supp on ES and is still in gear unless 75 exceeded

(Apr 01-13:04) mike: The NQ bounced to 1965 while the ES reached 1175.75 and they dropped back down. The market is vulnerable unless 1175 on the ES is exceeded and not quickly reversed.

(Apr 01-13:17) mike: 60ema on 5 min at 73 and thats key area - 73.00-72.50 zone

(Apr 01-13:44) mike: NQ broke, 1960-61 good resist now

(Apr 01-13:58) mike: The ES bounced to 1174.75 and then broke hard once again. The ES filled the gap on the daily chart, but the NQ is very weak so that 1175 area is still a key resistance to sell against.

(Apr 01-14:14) mike: 1168.50-1168.00 was resist, now is next supp area. that is giving a bounce, if theses lows are broken then 1163-1162 would be a key reversal .

(Apr 01-14:20) mike: tick extreme on top, small dip. end your w/e on a good note, don't do something just to be trading this late in the day

(Apr 01-14:26) mike: gap days are often times trend days, the low/ high are about equal amunt of time left. so, if this continues a low could be made with about 30 minutes left for stocks. we'll see.

(Apr 01-14:39) mike: 70.50-72.00 now good resist, 63-61 key supp if no hold here

(Apr 01-15:07) mike: probably bottomed on NQf for today, and ES held at a logical spot. a late day short squeeze possible but they started the rally too soon. a test / break of the lows should be reversed UNLESS an air pocket drop to 63-62 area

(Apr 01-15:08) mike: anyhow, 70.50-72.00 still good resist

(Apr 01-15:12) mike: The ES fell to 1166.25 so far in what has been a trend down day. If the lows are not in already, a test should be held. A break/ hold over 1170.50-1172.00 is needed to get into neutral territory.

Enjoy the weekend!

(Apr 01-15:19) mike: 70.50 should be it for bounce
(Apr 01-15:21) mike: have a great long weekend. i'll update Sunday night. employment number i will be away. take care

 

 

Wednesday - March 31, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 31-10:17) mike: if you still have part of puts bought monday cover them
(Mar 31-10:19) mike: a bounce back to 67-68 that stalls out is a short. pressure on only if 63 broken/ held

(Mar 31-10:31) mike: 68 stall/ rejection. very tight stop on short. 65.50-65.00 support on a pullback
(Mar 31-10:35) mike: didn't drop quickly so flatten out
(Mar 31-10:39) mike: The market has very good volatility today already. The bounce should reverse from under 1170, but the upside will be intact and no reversal happens unless the 1167 level is broken.

(Mar 31-10:46) mike: bearish pattern. could bounce from 65.50 area, but bounce is a sell

(Mar 31-11:08) mike: a 123 top pattern is likely if 67 is exceeded. that would be a pop to 69 or lower that reverses n 2 min chart.

(Mar 31-11:37) mike: 123 top - pullback trigger on break of 68.25
(Mar 31-11:39) mike: slow moving , 67.25-67.00 now supp tht needs to hold
(Mar 31-11:43) mike: thats what tight stop are for, this doesn't reverse unless 67 breaks. tho 1170 should be a tough level to break/ stay over

(Mar 31-12:02) mike: be short under 1170. and 10900 dow cash
(Mar 31-12:03) mike: 67.75-67.25 first supp

(Mar 31-12:22) mike: After the last update the ES turned down from 1168.75 and dropped to 1165.25 but then turned right back up. For now the market is in End of Quarter action and needs to stay over 1168 to avoid a decent pullback. The 1170 level must be taken out and not reversed to get a push towards the 1173.25-1173.75 zone, possibly the 1176-1177 area for a reversal. If that 1170 stays as a good barrier, an 1168 breaks, then a reversal day is possible.

(Mar 31-12:33) mike: 1170 and dow 10900 still the key resist / sell area. its toppy / or top of range and keeps getting rejected. . big wedge pattern is ominous looking

(Mar 31-12:52) mike: 68.00. held, no damage yet but mkt feels nervous, load up short if 70-71 fails again / or if 68 is broken and held on a bounce

(Mar 31-13:07) mike: 68 needs to break soon, or we get another push towards 70

(Mar 31-14:10) mike: 68 barley broke but came right back and stayed at 68.50 . the mkt is going to be strong as long as that area holds today.

(Mar 31-14:17) mike: that made dbl top at dow 10900 and 70.50 , i'm shorting up here due to rejection[s] and poor internals at high
(Mar 31-14:18) mike: confirmation on a break of 10880 area on dow cash and 68 held under on break

(Mar 31-14:30) mike: in this zone, can scalp both sides. the NQ keeps popping up. need to see a break to be aggressive either way
(Mar 31-14:32) mike: 1965-1964 supp on NQ. 1168.50-1168.00 ES . 10880 dow cash

(Mar 31-14:39) mike: they could bounce, but not with me - a very good short coming , maybe started
(Mar 31-14:45) mike: The ES double topped at 1170.50 and the NQ finally is giving some back so short the bounces as a good top should be in place.
(Mar 31-14:45) mike: 69 good resist

(Mar 31-15:10) mike: this bounce should fail, if in a long use any strength to get out - we are going to see a big drop soon ,

(Mar 31-15:22) mike: a break thru 61.50 needed to go toward 1158ish first decent supp

(Mar 31-15:29) mike: 66.00-66.50 good resist now. the NQ should be watched, its leading
(Mar 31-15:34) mike: that 66.00-66.50 rejected. only a break/ hold over it can save this causing shorts to cover

(Mar 31-15:51) mike: good resist at 66.00-66.50- if 65 not exceeded, a drop into close. have a great rest of the day

 

 

Tuesday - March 30, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 30-10:07) mike: 1169.00-1168.25 closing range from yesterday now key support

(Mar 30-10:15) mike: as long as 72.00-71.50 hold, no damage done. if broken, then early high in place
(Mar 30-10:20) mike: sell 71.50-72.00 now good resist

(Mar 30-10:29) mike: The higher open was sold but the ES turned up from 1169.00 and sprinted to 1173.75 before running out of gas. Those should be highs for the day, but a break/ hold under 1169.00-1168.50 is needed to put the pressure on.

(Mar 30-10:42) mike: key supp held, but this 71.50-72.00 should be hard to get thru and hold - a short w/ tight top

(Mar 30-11:00) mike: short side under 71.50-72.00 bettet odds, could break down soon
(Mar 30-11:01) mike: 68.25 should be met
(Mar 30-11:04) mike: 69.00-69.50 now resist
(Mar 30-11:05) mike: stay with part of short for swing trade.

(Mar 30-11:14) mike: The 1166.75-1166.25 zone on the ES, 1954.50-1954.00 zone on the NQ and 10880 on the Dow cash were all broken so some damage has been done. The action is bearish and a bounce would need to take out 1171.50-1172.00 and hold to get out of trouble.

(Mar 30-11:24) mike: if you bought puts yesterday with me near the close, cover 1/2 of them here and we'll hold the rest for awhile

(Mar 30-12:22) mike: 68.25 was a support yesterdat afternoon, the transition lower when it broke, and its now a key resist on this lunchtime bounce . mkt bearish under that

Mar 30-12:46) mike: a wedge pattern could break, 68.50 must hold

(Mar 30-13:20) mike: wedge broke, test of low

(Mar 30-13:35) mike: After dropping to 1164.25 the ES bounced to 1169.50 and stalled out, which lead to another drop to 1166.25 so far. The market is a short on all decent bounces, as it looks like more toppy action. Only a brak/ hold over 1170 can get this out of trouble.

(Mar 30-13:57) mike: 10880 on Dow cash needs to hold on this next drop, or it can mean a drop thru the lows

(Mar 30-14:14) mike: resist at 69.50-71.00 zone is a short if reached, that 68.75 looks like a high tho. still sell these pops

(Mar 30-14:32) mike: if 1171.50 reached, it should be rejected .

(Mar 30-14:46) mike: 1170 rejection, but 69.00 on ES and 1963.50 on NQ need to hold or its a reversal

(Mar 30-15:04) mike: should go to 67.50 if symmetry continues

(Mar 30-15:22) mike: The 1170 level was cleared but has dropped off of 1171 and now must get back over 1170 to avoid trouble

(Mar 30-15:35) mike: 68.75 is key supp. if 71.50 should be reversed

(Mar 30-15:49) mike: the upside is 71.50 , maybe 76... downside is a lot more. have a great rest of the day
(Mar 30-15:51) mike: keeping a partial short for a swing trade, i think friday could be bad w/ only 45 min to trade
(Mar 30-15:52) mike: enjoy the rest of your day

 

Monday - March 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 29-09:14) mike: My ISP is doing ''maintenance'' today and tomorrow and the site, and this chat box, will be down for a few hours at some point. also, email can not be received so i can not answer emails for a few days

(Mar 29-09:54) mike: thats a top for a bit
(Mar 29-09:55) mike: 67-66 must hold or 63 area is a test

(Mar 29-10:02) mike: 68.00-68.50 resist

Mar 29, 2010 10:29 mike: The early strength was sold about 23 minutes into trading as the ES turned down from just under 1170 and dropped 4 points before a bounce. The bounces should be sold until a test of the 1164-1163 area, which must be quickly reversed to avoid a deeper drop.

Mar 29, 2010 10:43 mike: the last lows should / must hold, a dip to 67 that turns up is a scalp long

Mar 29, 2010 11:01 mike: bounce off 67.25 and 67.00... however NQ lost its early aggressive bid. that 67 level now must continue to hold . . scalp long only

Mar 29, 2010 11:14 mike: 68.25 pivotal -

Mar 29, 2010 11:22 mike: The ES turned up from 1165.25 and has bounced back to test the early high. The NQ is lagging after an aggressive buy up early so the market is vulnerable if the ES can not stay over 1167.00 now.

Mar 29, 2010 11:30 mike: 1170.75-1171.50 key zone.

Mar 29, 2010 11:47 mike: key resist was rejected, now a wedge is close to breaking. a pop to a lower high that reverses is another short set up. 1168.25 looks key for support

(Mar 29-11:57) mike: The ES reversed from the 1170.75-1171.50 resistance zone, and it will take a break/ hold over that zone to avoid a decent sized drop. The 1168-1167 area should be pivotal, so a pullback must hold that area to avoid a potential reversal day.

(Mar 29-12:01) mike: the 20ema on 5 min chart at 1168.50 too here now, so a cluster of supp, need to hold to keep uptrend . this could set up a 123 top if a bounce to a lower high reverses

(Mar 29-12:14) mike: 68.50 now key trend supp. if broken, 67.00 is next . still, a bounce to lower high that then reverses on a 2 minute chart, it a 123 top

(Mar 29-12:21) mike: not good action up here at all. suggest short w/ stop over 70. i'm just selling bounces up here,

(Mar 29-12:43) mike: 66.75 cover part if short

(Mar 29-12:56) mike: 66.75 is a ''last trapped'' and now 60ema on 5 min chart. mkt okay as long as its held, but need break and hold, not reject, the 1169.50 level to look bettet

(Mar 29-13:42) mike: its a 2-sided action but short the bounces better trades, stay w/ short side on bounces
(Mar 29-13:46) mike: The bounces don't want to stick and it's toppy acting so the 1170.75-1171.50 resistance zone would need to be exceeded, not rejected, and held to avoid a top.

(Mar 29-14:10) mike: the range is tiny, the mkt will keep chopping around unless the 1167-1166.50 area is broken and then held as resistance on a bounce attempt. on top 69.50 area hasn't held since coming down from 71.00, failing there keeps mkt from a rally/ short squeeze

(Mar 29-14:30) mike: watch 10880 on Dow, a break there should pressure the mkt. NQ better short w/ AAPL action

(Mar 29-14:45) mike: The market averages have traded in very narrow ranges and it looks like the Dow cash needs to stay over 10880 to avoid a deeper drop and possibly fall pretty hard.

(Mar 29-15:12) mike: 68.50 will need to hold end of day. a new high close over 1174.14 on SPX will set up a good odds short . if they break lower, its a bad pattern.

(Mar 29-15:22) mike: 68.50 held 2 times, a 3rd will break dn so that a key level now

Mar 29-15:46) mike: this is worth a few puts. have a great rest of your day.

 

 

Friday - March 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Mar 26, 2010 9:43 mike: 1165.75 key early

Mar 26, 2010 10:14 mike: must stay over 67 to avoid reversal

Mar 26, 2010 10:20 mike: The ES popped up on the open, reversed from the 1165.75 resistance, then after pulling back to yesterday's close the market turned up. It should be a volatile day, and if 1166.50-1166.00 is not held then the trend turns down.

Mar 26, 2010 10:23 mike: sell w/ stop just over 68.50. or 1962 nq
Mar 26, 2010 10:24 mike: need 66.50 to break, may wait for reversal. or use tight stop

Mar 26, 2010 10:30 mike: prairie dog, 67 need to hold or bad
Mar 26, 2010 10:35 mike: its trend up , but NQ at resist, struggling there.

Mar 26, 2010 10:42 mike: a wedge pattern , highs at / just under resist. it shoulld be tough resist. if 67 broken, the bounce tht follows will fail

Mar 26, 2010 11:00 mike: The bounce failed at 1169.75 on the ES and the 1963.50-1964.00 key area on the NQ was sold, so those should be tops to short against until the 1167.00-1166.50 is broken.

Mar 26, 2010 11:04 mike: 1166 is going to be pivotal it appears, this bounce should fail and a break/ hold under 1166 would put pressure on

Mar 26, 2010 11:14 mike: this could break hard / watch dow 5 min chart
Mar 26, 2010 11:16 mike: if that ''ledge'' breaks , downside can gather steam

Mar 26, 2010 11:25 mike: the bounce failed so far, a tepid choppy mkt. for scalps right now. the mkt will be vulnerable under 1169 - and must hold this 66.50-66.00 pivotal area or its a transition to the downside

(Mar 26-11:45) mike: The 1167.00-1166.50 area gave a bounce to 1168.75 on ES and 1960 on the NQ and the market is vulnerable unless those are exceeded / held now.

(Mar 26-11:59) mike: 1955-1954 on nq a key supp
(Mar 26-12:00) mike: equal to this 66 area - if not held, 1164.50 on es is next

(Mar 26-12:22) mike: stay short under 68 . a bouncec is a gift if not short
(Mar 26-12:24) mike: nq the weaker and better short today all day so far
(Mar 26-12:29) mike: potential for a bounce off 1161-1160. or a colapse towards 1158.50, key

(Mar 26-12:37) mike: The market broke the wedge and tumbled tonew lows. The 1166.50 area needs cleared and not rejected to change things. Sell the bounces if not already short as this could unwind to the downside.

(Mar 26-12:46) mike: feeble bunce off 61 supp, stay w/ shorts for now

(Mar 26-12:56) mike: 62.50 now good resist
(Mar 26-12:58) mike: take some off the table down here at support, trail stop on the rest. 1163.500-1164.00 resist now

(Mar 26-13:04) mike: if this 1159.25-1158.50 breaks, 1155.75-1155.00 needs to hold. a drop to 53.00-51.50 area would be a bad end of week if we drop there

(Mar 26-13:12) mike: bounce from 1155.75-1155.00 zone, but good resist at 59.50 if going lower

(Mar 26-13:25) mike: The market has finally come under good selling pressure. This action has been rather ugly, but lately the market has come flying back after a decent drop. The 1155.75-1155.00 area was tested once, so be on alert for another decent bounce if the ES re-tests that zone and then turns up. The 1152.50-1163.25 area should be a good resistance zone now.

(Mar 26-13:49) mike: 61.50 is 20ema on 5 min chart and trend resist
(Mar 26-13:51) mike: a mini wedge broke, a pop to 61 that reverses starts another drop

(Mar 26-14:32) mike: key here, 60ema at 63.50 too

(Mar 26-14:49) mike: The ES bounced to 1163.75, just over resistance, and reversed. The tone has changed and I'd hold off buying anything and focus on the short side unless the lows are tested/ reversed or 1164 is exceeded and held.

(Mar 26-14:52) mike: a 123 type top could form in no nose dive here
(Mar 26-14:56) mike: one last thing, the symmetry / stair step up from the low needs to hold over 1160.00 , otherwise pattern breaks and day ends poorly

(Mar 26-15:28) mike: a last 30 minute rally is doubtful - but will only set up a short if it does

(Mar 26-15:44) mike: have a great weekend

 

 

Thursday - March 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 25-09:17) mike: it should be a good mkt unless 1169.00-1168.50 is broken today

(Mar 25-09:52) mike: gap on daily chart filled, must stay over 69.00-68.50

Mar 25, 2010 10:22 mike: The gap up open was sold and the ES dropped 5 points from 1172.50 to 1167.50 and bounced. That 1167.50-1166.50 area should be pivotal today. Unless that area in broken, and not quickly reversed, the bulls are still in charge with 1173.75-1174.25 in site. If it is broken, then trends change and a drop towards 1164 is in the cards.

Mar 25, 2010 10:30 mike: 70 should hold to get a push higher

Mar 25, 2010 10:36 mike: careful long up here, if 71 not exceeded / held soon we can get a drop

Mar 25, 2010 10:47 mike: 71.25 has bee a lid, if broken they pop thu to 1173.75-1174.25 but looking tired up here at the moment

Mar 25, 2010 11:16 mike: if long sell em at 73.75-74.50 area here

Mar 25, 2010 11:17 mike: 72-71 now good supp

Mar 25, 2010 11:27 mike: The 1173.75-1174.25 zone was reached, but the move is not in jeopardy unless the 1170.25-1169.50 zone is broken. There is a chance for a trend up day as long as a dip holds 1171.50 now.

(Mar 25-11:41) mike: its a melt up, the first sign of weakness come if 74.00-73.50 area broken.

(Mar 25-12:25) mike: 123 type top, that might be it for upside if the 20ema here at 72.25 breaks again

(Mar 25-12:35) mike: The ES reached 1175.75 and tested it twice before pulling back. If that is not exceeded, and 1173.00-11172.50 is broken, then a high could be in place. If 1172.50 is not broken then the trend up day is not damaged.

(Mar 25-12:49) mike: new highs have been sold, so let it pull back, or scalp a short if quick on those, then look for a long entry until trend breaks

(Mar 25-13:06) mike: The dip held right at 1173.00 and bounced to a higher high at 1176.50. The market is acting a bit ragged, so that 1173 level needs to hold or a top could be forming.

(Mar 25-13:20) mike: a transition to downside happens if 73.00-72.50 broken then is then resist on a bounce
(Mar 25-13:23) mike: time to start looking short now if bounce off supp fizzles near 76 again - 2 ema here, 4 touches so far
(Mar 25-13:24) mike: 20ema, not 2. at 74.50
(Mar 25-13:30) mike: 76 rejected, a short under it w/ tight stop

(Mar 25-13:38) mike: shouldn't see 74.50 again, if we do its a short
(Mar 25-13:39) mike: 74 area a short , nq look a bit weaker now, 1969 resist there

(Mar 25-13:47) mike: a bounce tht fails/reverses under 73 area is bearish sign
(Mar 25-13:49) mike: 72.50-73.00 must be cleared/ held no to change this trend / transition down

(Mar 25-14:07) mike: The rejection of 1176 picked up steam when 1173 was broken, and now the 1172.50-1173.00 area should be key resistance on a bounce.

(Mar 25-14:34) mike: 69.0-69.50 trend resist. this 67.50-66.50 is a key supp, must hold or the 1164 next, 1161 is a big level to hold to avoid an outside day

(Mar 25-14:37) mike: if short, cover a part in this supp zone

(Mar 25-15:00) mike: that 65.75 low should stick, otherwise things will have changed from ''buy deep drops, you'll get em back'' psyche

(Mar 25-15:11) mike: the bounce started sooner than normal lately, a decent dip likely/ a possible double bottom but w'll see

(Mar 25-15:21) mike: 69 needs to hold here, or we could break towards 67 or lower

(Mar 25-15:37) mike: the bouncce was to early to end great, try for dbl bottom but 1162.00-1161.00 major area could be seen if 68 not cleared
(Mar 25-15:40) mike: The bounce reversed from 1171 and the 1162-1161 area needs to hold or the move snowballs towards the 1159-1158.50 major area.

(Mar 25-15:50) mike: 61.25 close enough. 65.50 resist going into the close . have a *great* rest of your day

 

 

Wednesday - March 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Mar 24, 2010 9:28 mike: it look like a top yesterday, sell bounce today 1170 shouldn't be exceeded / held today
Mar 24, 2010 9:29 mike: if u bought puts cover 1/4 on open

Mar 24, 2010 10:12 mike: The 1164.00 support was reversed but the market isn't out of trouble yet. A move to the 1169-1170 area that stalls/ reverses should set up a shorting opportunity.

Mar 24, 2010 10:47 mike: The bounce took the ES to 1168.75, and it double topped there, so to avoid trouble that must be cleared/ held.

(Mar 24-10:56) mike: the 66 level was quickly reversed when broken, and 66.25 held on pullback. if broken then the ''buy dips'' thought process breaks

(Mar 24-11:08) mike: should be the highs, if they pop back up get short, a bigger drop coming

(Mar 24-11:13) mike: 1162.50-1161.75 will be a key spot
(Mar 24-11:15) mike: load em up short on bounces, swing trade if not already in. 66.00-66.50 good resist , shouldnt be exceeded now

(Mar 24-11:24) mike: The market rolled over pretty hard, and it appears things have changed short term. There is resistance at 1166.00-1166.50 that shouldn't be exceeded. The 1159.00-1158.50 area needs to be quickly reversed on a test/ break to avoid a sharp drop towards 1155.75 and maybe 1152-1150.

(Mar 24-11:44) mike: if64.50 is not broken//held then the mkt is still very weak. should back off from there

(Mar 24-12:16) mike: 66.0-66.50 shouldnt be exceeded/ held- a short under 66.50

(Mar 24-12:26) mike: staying under 66.50, but 64.50 looks like a pivotal level, it need to break and stay under it to turn lower now.

(Mar 24-12:55) mike: wedge pattern , if 66 is broken, a pop that follows would be a short

(Mar 24-13:02) mike: 66,25 r now
(Mar 24-13:05) mike: 62.50 small supp
(Mar 24-13:09) mike: 65.25-65.75 should be sold

(Mar 24-13:19) mike: As pointed out via instant message, a wedge pattern was broken when 1166 was broken and now the market is a short on all bounces up to 1168.50-1170.00 now. The 1159.00-1158.50 area must be reversed to avoid an air-pocket towards 1152.

(Mar 24-13:43) mike: we have an ''inside'' day so far. if 62 breaks then the 1159 should get tested/ broken, then expect a very quick reversal or just nose dive to 1155.75 or 1152ish .

(Mar 24-13:57) mike: 59 still in site if 63.50-64.25 not exceeded.

(Mar 24-14:03) mike: double bottoms, so ES IS OK over 61 . just don't expect a big rally. mkt in a bit of top pattern

(Mar 24-14:18) mike: 63.25-62.50 should / must hold on a dip now

(Mar 24-14:38) mike: 63.25 should be important support, 65 key resist . careful long, doesnt have much power on bounce

(Mar 24-14:59) mike: A double bottom was made on all of the averages, but the bounce has been feeble. As long as 1165 is not exceeded the market is vulnerable and could still test/ break 1159.00-1158.50 before a good reversal can occur.

(Mar 24-15:15) mike: if 64.50 not exceeded soon, we finally get a day that ends on down note
(Mar 24-15:16) mike: 10825-10820 on Dow cash is the key spot to hold it appears

(Mar 24-15:39) mike: that 66 area good resist, but if 64.50-64.00 holds the mkt is still a buy

(Mar 24-15:46) mike: avoid longs, sell near 66 if reached. action setting up for a drop
(Mar 24-16:01) mike: have a great rest of the day.

 

 

Friday - March 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 19-09:17) mike: last time the Dow closed up 9 days in a row, 1996 -- 14 years

(Mar 19-09:28) mike: mkt is ok unless 1162 reversed dn thru. quarterly expiration

(Mar 19-09:47) mike: The gap up open at 1165.25-1165.50 resistance was a "gift for an entry on the short side" and that should be a top. Bounces are shorts on this quarterly expiration day. The 1158 area is key/ pivotal support now.

(Mar 19-10:09) mike: 62 now key resist. it shouldnt be cleared

(Mar 19-10:14) mike: 1158.00-1157.50 should break if going to get hit hard here
(Mar 19-10:19) mike: 59.00-59.50 trend resist
(Mar 19-10:22) mike: 1 minute chart 18 ema is good trend guide in these momentum moves, at 58.50 now and dropping
(Mar 19-10:26) mike: 1155.75-1155.00 tested, but should break if 1158.50 not cleared / held

(Mar 19-10:31) mike: 57 now trend resist
(Mar 19-10:33) mike: trail stop, or ride tthis towards 1149.00-1148.50 major supp. resist 1157.00, 1158.50-1159.00 area. 1934 on nq

(Mar 19-10:41) mike: The drop was a steady trend down move to 1154.50 in the first hour before finally getting a bounce. Lately the market has come right back, but that shouldn't be the case today. The ES would need to get back over 1162 and not quickly reverse to undo this damage.

(Mar 19-10:56) mike: 57 resist - still a weak mkt not able to clear resist areas

(Mar 19-11:02) mike: the vix gives 3 of possible 5 sell signals if it closes here over 17.13
(Mar 19-11:04) mike: i'm holding sing trade shorts over the w/e if its giving those signals near the close

(Mar 19-11:17) mike: minor supp 51.50-51.00, but 1149.00-1148.50 major. stay with it, 57.50 shouldn't be exceeded

(Mar 19-11:29) mike: After a small bounce to trend resistance at 1157.25 another drop took the ES to a 1152.00, just over the 1151.50 support. That area should break as long as 1157.50-1158.50 is not exceeded. The 1149.00-1148.50 area looks like a major short term support, a double bottom from after the Fed release. A break of that area would be a big negative for the weekly chart. Have a great weekend, next update Sunday night.

(Mar 19-11:33) mike: i'll stay on here until noon. still holding short for now, but scaled out of 1/2 for now

(Mar 19-11:59) mike: shouldn't bounce much further or the lows could be in place.

(Mar 19-12:05) mike: the environment should be a bit thin due to the tourney . and a quarterly expiration. could see an exaggerated move either way. the ''easy'' part with a good trend move is over for awhile

(Mar 19-13:19) mike: this can be quiet chop until around 2;30pm. small triangle breaks under 52 or over 56. 54 looks key supp here... enjoy the weekend.

 

 

Thursday - March 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 18-09:26) mike: if in a swing trade from 63-64 area yesterday, cover around 61 and we'll take a second look

(Mar 18-09:40) mike: short under resist rejected

(Mar 18-09:52) mike: leading indicators and philly fed release top of the hour

(Mar 18-10:06) mike: that should be hard to get thru, short all pop ups

(Mar 18-10:15) mike: The ES rejected its 1162.00-1163.00 zone on the open, dropped 2.25 points to 1160.25 and bounced back. The reversal off of 1163.25 on the ES and a double top on the Dow should be a top, but a break/ hold under 1160 is needed now to send the market lower.

(Mar 18-10:36) mike: dbl top on dow, then a wedge break and a 123 top, all say lower prices
(Mar 18-10:38) mike: 60.25-61.00 resist

(Mar 18-10:49) mike: The market broke lower from a number of resistance areas and this bounce should make lower high and reverse. There is small resistance at 1160.50-1161.00, but the 1163 area is key this morning.

(Mar 18-10:55) mike: 60.25 rejected first try, its trend down unless that 61 is broken/ held on a pullback

(Mar 18-11:09) mike: 60.50 needs to continue to hold, its toppy action if it breaks again .

(Mar 18-11:17) mike: The ES broke over 1160.50 and held on a pullback, so as long as that is held there is no damage done. It should be a 2-sided day with another reversal near 1165 a good possibility.

(Mar 18-11:41) mike: its a short unless 62-63 is broken and not quickl reversed

(Mar 18-11:50) mike: The bounce revered from the 1162.25 level and the action is not good. the 1158.00-1157.50 zone was reached, but bounces should fail setting up better odds shorts

(Mar 18-12:01) mike: 1155.75-1155.00 gap target 1
(Mar 18-12:07) mike: 1155.75 gap on daily missed by 2 ticks - the 58-59 area resist ow

(Mar 18-12:31) mike: This selling should last for more than a few hours this time. The ES just missed its 1155.75-1155.00 gap support while the NQ has yet to break initial support, so a bounce should fail and those support areas must hold or the downside could gather steam.

(Mar 18-12:43) mike: a pretty good sized bid to cut thru at support. 123 bottom possible, but a bounce will be sold
(Mar 18-12:48) mike: 123 bottom, this bounce won't stick though , must break/ hold 1157.50-1158.00 area

(Mar 18-13:21) mike: 60ema on 5 min here on ES, dow 3 highs up there
(Mar 18-13:22) mike: things may slow down this afternoon due to NCAA Hoops action

(Mar 18-13:37) mike: 59 is pivotal now. needs to stay over/ hold on pullback. NQ its 1937.1936 key area

Mar 18, 2010 14:24 mike: The ES bounced back to 1160.50 but backed off. The market is vulnerable under 1162-1163 on the ES but things are slowing down due to the NCAA Basketball tourney. A break/ hold under 1158.00-1157.50 is needed to put the pressure on. Next update late this evening.

Mar 18, 2010 14:50 mike: a dangerous, bearish pattern. sell a bounce if not short, nq has good downside

Mar 18, 2010 15:29 mike: those pop over 60-61 are quickly rejected, easier trade for scalps today. or a drop to 59 that reverses... a tired, extended mkt, but a break of 58 area needed to put pressure on.

Mar 18, 2010 15:30 mike: enjoy the rest of your day
 

 

Wednesday - March 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 17-10:09) mike: 1160 is pivotal, a short if broken

(Mar 17-10:36) mike: The ES gapped up and rallied to 1161.50 in the first 30 minutes and has pulled back. The 1161.00-1161.50 area should be a top for the morning and the 1157-1156 area must hold to avoid a bigger reversal.

(Mar 17-11:04) mike: 2 way range, buy a reversal from 59 area, sell reversal around 62 area

(Mar 17-11:36) mike: The pullback held at 1158.50 and the move over 1160.75 kicked in more buying took them to the 1162.00-1163.00 zone so far. As long as the 1160.75-1160.00 area is held, the move is just a pullback. However, a break back under that zone would likely mean a high is in place for the day.


(Mar 17-11:42) mike: a trend up day, looking a bit tired. the 1162-63 area and 1939.75-1940.50 on NQ- both important resistance zones

(Mar 17-12:14) mike: The ES rejected its 1162.00-1163.00 zone and NQ reversed its 1939.75-1940.50 zone, and unless broken and held a decent pullback should occur especially if 1160.75 is broken.

(Mar 17-12:36) mike: need to break/ hold that 60.75

(Mar 17-13:32) mike: The 1160.75 level was touched and held and a new high was made. For now the market stays in trend up mode unless the 116 level breaks.

(Mar 17-14:51) mike: A 123 top was made at the highs and the trends/ dynamics have changed and bounces are very good shorting opportunities.
(Mar 17-14:51) mike: swing trade short

(Mar 17-15:22) mike: stay short part for swing trade

(Mar 17-15:24) mike: day trade shorts, 60.00-60.50 resist, 62 then key

 

Tuesday - March 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 16-09:47) mike: gap filled, 1145 area must hold to get a bounce

(Mar 16-10:01) mike: bounce from 45.50, now tht s key supp

(Mar 16-10:26) mike: The gap up open was sold and the ES dropped to yesterday's closing range before turning up. The test of the 1149.00 high was rejected, but the 1145.50-1145.00 is now key support that should hold to keep the market in decent shape.

(Mar 16-11:30) mike: if 51.50 breaks, the trend up move in jeopardy

(Mar 16-11:36) mike: The ES took out 1149.00 and then exploded higher from 1148.50 so that area is now a key support. The action off of the 1153.00 high has the market looking a bit tired and a scalp short from up there should work out. However, as long as the 1149.00-1148.50 is held no damage is done.

(Mar 16-12:48) mike: The 1153 level was rejected and the market is backing off. If a pop up fails near 1151.50-1152.00 stalls it's a short with a tight stop. The 1149.00-1148.50 area is still a key support before and after the Fed release.

(Mar 16-13:30) mike: a break/ hold of 1151 needed to get a bounce

(Mar 16-13:52) mike: look for a run up to be sold

(Mar 16-14:48) mike: 1148.50 now a major area, a break of that tops the mkt

(Mar 16-15:16) mike: The 1154.00 resistance was rejected, but the 1149.00-1148.50 area held and that's a major/ transition zone now that must hold.

 

Monday - March 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Mar 15, 2010 9:56 mike: that should be a high , under 1924 NQ and 1146 es

Mar 15, 2010 10:10 mike: The 1142.50-1142.00 zone was broken and then the ES bounced back to the 1145 area and turned down fast. Those highs shouldn't be exceeded now. If the 10600 level on the Dow cash is broken and not quickly reversed, then another push lower is likely.

Mar 15, 2010 10:27 mike: need to hold 42.50

Mar 15, 2010 10:34 mike: sell under the 1146-1147 zone. a bounce will not stick

Mar 15, 2010 10:47 mike: NQ taking over, now need to break Dow 10600 to break down . bounces still are shorts

Mar 15, 2010 11:02 mike: 1914-1915 on NQ a key resist. Dow holds 10600, or the mkt gets hit w/ a decent selloff today

Mar 15, 2010 11:12 mike: 41.00-41.50 resist now
Mar 15, 2010 11:14 mike: trend day going if no bounce off of 1138.50-1138.00...

Mar 15, 2010 11:26 mike: 38.50 small resist/

Mar 15, 2010 11:33 mike: 38.50 rejected. key trend resist

Mar 15, 2010 12:05 mike: mini wedge, should test/break low

Mar 15, 2010 12:23 mike: they will be ok for a bit as long as 38 holds

Mar 15, 2010 12:27 mike: 38 held but 39 is a lid right now, must be cleared / held

Mar 15, 2010 12:36 mike: a feeble bounce. 1138 is holding, but still a ''short bounces' day still going

Mar 15, 2010 12:44 mike: 40.25-41.00 area should fail

Mar 15, 2010 12:48 mike: The ES found buyers at 1138.00 and a bounce towards 1141 is in gear. That area should be hard to get through and hold. A test of 1138 must hold now or another drop is in the cards.

Mar 15, 2010 13:06 mike: 1139 is pivotal, was high of range, broken on upside and held 2 times = must stay over it or we break

Mar 15, 2010 13:20 mike: losing momentum. if 39 breaks , a wedge ca n break too on dow cash

(Mar 15-13:44) mike: if 40 breaks, a bounce high in place

(Mar 15-13:52) mike: they need to stay up here, over 40, to keep upside grind in gear.
(Mar 15-13:55) mike: 1908.50-1909.00 NQ a key resist there.

(Mar 15-14:05) mike: The ES made a bounce high at 1140.75 and it joins the 60ema on the 5 minute chart. The move needs to get over that area on the ES and the 1909 area on the NQ and not quickly turn back down to avoid another drop.

(Mar 15-14:11) mike: wedge broke, a bounce will fail. 1140 area a good short if reached

(Mar 15-14:31) mike: 90 minutes till stocks close. this bounce should be it for now.
(Mar 15-14:32) mike: choppy downside in front of Fed tomorrow, shorts in charge

(Mar 15-14:48) mike: shorts squeezed on break of 39.75. thats now good supp, 42.50 resist

(Mar 15-14:55) mike: 40.75-40.25 should be strong support now or trends go back down. if 42.50-43.00 not reversed, a long shot chance of 1146.50-1147.00

(Mar 15-15:03) mike: 41.25 needs to hold now

(Mar 15-15:19) mike: 41.75-41.00 supp that should/ must hold.

(Mar 15-15:37) mike: they stay strong as long as 43.00-42.50 held on pullback

(Mar 15-15:51) mike: quite volatile in front of Fed meeting tomorrow. they reached 46.50-47.00 , 44.50 good supp now needs to stay over to still look ok on upside

(Mar 15-15:59) mike: have a good rest of the day

 

 

Friday - March 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 12-09:27) mike: 1149.50-1151.00 area must be cleared and not quickly reversed to avoid dip towards 47-46

(Mar 12-09:46) mike: could be a trend down day if 46 breaks and is held on a bounce

(Mar 12-10:06) mike: 46.00-46.50resist
(Mar 12-10:06) mike: sell bounces, a top at big resist on sp500 cash

(Mar 12-10:12) mike: The ES reversed from the 1149.50-1151.00 zone and dropped to test the 1142.50-1142.00 zone. This could be a trend day if 1142 is broken and held on a bounce. A test of the 1146 area should be sold.

(Mar 12-10:29) mike: 42 key supp must hold, the 1146 is good resist

(Mar 12-10:40) mike: 43.50 shouldn't be broken now, or 42 has good chance of breaking

(Mar 12-10:48) mike: just short bounces for now
(Mar 12-10:49) mike: 38 should be tested today

(Mar 12-11:06) mike: a pop up to 45.50-46.00 that stalls is a good short. mkt acting soggy, but the mkt doesn't break down hard unless 42 is broken / held

(Mar 12-11:27) mike: a pullback need to hold 45.00-44.50 now, to avoid more downside

(Mar 12-11:40) mike: held small supp, but that 1146.25 is pivotal resist. a transition, should not be exceeded/ held

(Mar 12-11:46) mike: The ES bounced off of 1142.00 and reached 1146.50 before turning down. The 1144.50 level now must hold to avoid a breakdown.

(Mar 12-12:19) mike: the ES has been holding/ bouncing from the 60 ema on5 min chart . its 43.50 nw. if broken and not reversed fast, then they roll over. a range unless broken/ held

(Mar 12-12:33) mike: looking ugly, a nose dive possible

(Mar 12-12:45) mike: The ES has been turned back from the 1146.00-1146.50 area which was yesterday's closes, and then the first pullback low off of the 1150.25 top. The market is bearish unless that area is exceeded and then held on a pullback. The market is extremely vulnerable under that area.

(Mar 12-13:09) mike: if 44.50 breaks, we test 43-42 zone again

(Mar 12-13:38) mike: The ES moved up to 1146.00 and backed off again in range bound trading after the early dump. The bottom of this range is at 1142.00, the key support, so the ES needs to breakout and hold over 1146.00-1146.50 area to avoid a trip back there. If 1142 is broken, then the downside could gather steam.

(Mar 12-14:18) mike: toppy, 46.00-46.50 needs cleared/ held -- but keeps failing. shorts in order even up to test 1154 on sp500 cash if there is 1 more pop up . 44.50 now must hold

(Mar 12-14:44) mike: that 46.00-46.50 area should be strong resist and a short for a sizable drop under that

(Mar 12-15:00) mike: it looks like they will end the day around here unless 43-42 breaks or 46.50 broken and not reversed again -- everyone is watching basketball tourneys

(Mar 12-15:18) mike: i'm staying short unless a close over 46. NQ broke wedge, mkt is topped out

(Mar 12-15:44) mike: right at 330pm from jus 2 ticks over support short covering run starts. flat over weekend, a range to break first

 

Thursday - March 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 11-10:31) mike: if 38 breaks its a sell

(Mar 11-10:36) mike: The ES opened lower and then turned up from the 1134.50-1134.00 area however the bounce is not strong yet and 1138 must hold to avoid another drop.

(Mar 11-10:56) mike: 39 now key supp, a high in if broken

(Mar 11-11:10) mike: 39 held but its a short on a pop to 40.50 area an reverses. pressure on

(Mar 11-12:03) mike: The ES reversed down from 1141.50 and near yesterday's highs on the NQ. However, so far the 1138.00 level held. If that breaks, and there isn't a quick turn up, then the pressure should be on the downside. The market is still vulnerable unless 1143 is broken and held on a pullback.

(Mar 11-12:52) mike: The 1138 level broke, but the move didn't accellerate. A move over 1140 that crosses back down through 1140 would make a good short. The bounces are not holding so stay with that side under 1140.

(Mar 11-13:06) mike: 38.75 now must hold, else reversal

(Mar 11-13:21) mike: 1140 reverse, must stay under tht now. bid 38.75 to cover part. tighten stop

(Mar 11-14:01) mike: swing trade short at 1140-ish / stop 1144.50 for now

(Mar 11-14:36) mike: The ES popped to 1141 and revered down through 1140 and now the ES needs to break 1138 then 1136 to stop the 2-sided action we are getting today.

(Mar 11-15:38) mike: 1144 will be hard to get thru n hold, if 1142 is broken, 1140.50 should be tested

(Mar 11-15:47) mike: 1142 is the key level, must break that and not reverse to turn down. this move can possibly see 1154 on sp500 cash, but that would be reversed . if 44 isn't broken and 42 breaks the downside could break hard.
 

 

Wednesday - March 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 10-10:25) mike: if 44 break/ hold then 1142 is now key supp
(Mar 10-10:26) mike: the mkt ok as long as 42 not broken

(Mar 10-11:23) mike: The 1147-1148 zone was rejected, but as long as the 1146.00-1145.50 area is held, the market will avoid a reversal

(Mar 10-12:15) mike: The 1146.00-1145.50 area was broken, and it was then rejected on a bounce. That's a short if tested. If 11444.50 is is not exceeded then the 1136 area could be in the cards.

(Mar 10-13:37) mike: a wedge break possible, 1142 must hold now

(Mar 10-14:43) mike: need 46 to break

(Mar 10-15:30) mike: stay short bounces, you'll get em back

(Mar 10-15:40) mike: 44.50 resist. topped out, a swing here

 

Tuesday - March 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 09-10:06) mike: 36 need to hold, mkt ok over that

(Mar 09-10:29) mike: The gap down open was reversed and rallied to 1139.50-1140.00 so far. A break of 1138.00-1137.50 should change the trends. The 1136 area is key and must hold to avoid a test of the lows.

(Mar 09-10:55) mike: 39 now must hold, trend day unless broken

(Mar 09-11:05) mike: those are tops, sell em on a pop,

(Mar 09-11:30) mike: 123 top possible. 1138 key / pivotal supp

(Mar 09-11:42) mike: 1141.50-1142.00 a short if reversred for a scalp , maybe more

(Mar 09-13:06) mike: The 1141.50-1142.00 area was exceeded in trend up mode so far. A pullback should be no more than 3 ES points, otherwise the pace is broken. That 1142 area now should be pivotal.

(Mar 09-13:45) mike: a top up there sell 44.25, stop over high
(Mar 09-13:46) mike: 42 verry key sup

(Mar 09-14:44) mike: thats a 123 top, use strength to get swing trade short

(Mar 09-15:22) mike: The 1142 area was broken and then was resistance on a bounce and the market is a short on any strength now.

(Mar 09-15:22) mike: stay short

 

Monday - March 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 08-10:21) mike: The early strength reversed about 15 minutes in but so far the pullback held at 1137.00 and turned up. It should be a 2-sided day with the NQ leading the way. The 1137 area must hold or things change.

(Mar 08-10:36) mike: 123 top, sell bounces under 1140

(Mar 08-11:51) mike: The ES made a 123 type top off the 1140 level and the 1137 level was broken. The market is vulnerable and a short unless the 1140 area is exceeded and held on a pullback. The 1133.00-1132.50 area should not break, or this is more than a pullback.

(Mar 08-11:54) mike: 37.50 shouldn't be exceeded . held
(Mar 08-11:55) mike: IF they somehow get to 38.50 and stall, a good short

(Mar 08-13:05) mike: 38 now supp / must hold

(Mar 08-13:54) mike: 1141.50-1142.00 next if no reversal under 39.00-38.50 supp

(Mar 08-14:46) mike: The 1140 area has been tough to break through, but for now it would take a break/hold under 1138 to turn the market lower.

(Mar 08-15:34) mike: i'm avoiding longs for now, if 36.00-35.50 breaks, we will have a top in

(Mar 08-16:00) mike: carrying over shorts from 39.50 or yo there near 1894 over night
(Mar 08-16:00) mike: have a great rest of the day

 

Friday - March 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

Mar 5, 2010 9:15 mike: 1125.50-1124.50 support
Mar 5, 2010 9:17 mike: 1132.00-1133.00 key resist

Mar 5, 2010 10:17 mike: don't short this zone unless 31.50 broken
Mar 5, 2010 10:18 mike: mkt ok over 1131.50 - but small short here
Mar 5, 2010 10:19 mike: stop over 1133
Mar 5, 2010 10:20 mike: 31.50 must break and 30.50 is good supp so its a scalp
Mar 5, 2010 10:22 mike: wait to see id 31 gets broken, a good bid to this.

Mar 5, 2010 10:32 mike: The gap up open was sold but the first dip was reversed from 1126 and a stair step higher is in gear. Gap days can be trend days and the market is in good shape unless the 1131.50-1130.75 zone is broken. If that happens, then a high could be in place.

Mar 5, 2010 10:34 mike: 33.00-32.50 should hold to avoid weakening up here
Mar 5, 2010 10:37 mike: if no bounce here, a high is in for awhile
Mar 5, 2010 10:41 mike: toppy now , a short up here
Mar 5, 2010 10:43 mike: 32.50 needs to break here soon to roll over a bit

Mar 5, 2010 10:48 mike: 31.50-30.75 zone is good support if 32.50 breaks. a wedge type pattern, a pop to a lower high that reverses is a better short since 32.50 holding

Mar 5, 2010 11:02 mike: dips are shallow on trend days, for now only a break of 32.50 changes trend

Mar 5, 2010 11:20 mike: must push thru 34.50 soon

Mar 5, 2010 11:31 mike: 123 top
Mar 5, 2010 11:31 mike: a short under 34.50 now

Mar 5, 2010 11:38 mike: 32.50 supp lock in at least partial profit on any shorts, tighten stop

Mar 5, 2010 11:43 mike: The ES reached 1134.50 and then after a dip the 1134.50 level was tested and reversed. The 1132.50-1132.00 area now needs to hold to avoid rolling over.

Mar 5, 2010 12:17 mike: feels ready to break soon , must get over 33.50 n not reverse

Mar 5, 2010 12:28 mike: A very small range up here. with 32.50 holding, trend day still intact. a very extended move, a break could be sharp lean

Mar 5, 2010 12:46 mike: The 1132.50-1132.00 area is good support on a trend day and only a break of that will turn the market down.

Mar 5, 2010 13:18 mike: Watch for a turn in the 2:20-2:40 timeframe. the 32.50 level very key now that a token higher high.

(Mar 05-13:31) mike: mkt getting tired, i'm shorting NQ if 1885 is broken and they bounce, or if they test 1888 and stall or are rejected

(Mar 05-13:43) mike: it looked like a top, but still must break 32.50 to roll over

(Mar 05-13:59) mike: a scalp mkt both ways. not short at this moment. need proof i believe

(Mar 05-14:07) mike: a toss up -- still trend up so if a dip to 33 area reverses, buy for a bounce. the upside appears limited the way they struggle up here all day, but not fighting a trend day

(Mar 05-14:13) mike: that was not good, short bounces now
(Mar 05-14:15) mike: the token new high 2 times today sold, if they pop up there and reverse, lots of longs wants to take profit up there

(Mar 05-14:40) mike: The 1132.50 area has held all day, but a poke over the 1135.00 high will likely reverse. Still, it will take a break/hold under 1133.00-1132.50 now to damage the trend up move.

(Mar 05-14:52) mike: 1136 needs to hold

(Mar 05-15:11) mike: the low was made about 15 minutes into trading. if 37 can hold, the high should be made with 15 minutes left in stock trading
(Mar 05-15:15) mike: 2:42pm they accelerate the uptrend. this will reverse on monday, possibly from up in the 1140's but up here i feel the next big move is in the other direction towards 1125-ish

(Mar 05-15:20) mike: 37 a key area now. a pop here won't stick , must break/ hold over 38

(Mar 05-15:41) mike: support at 35.50-35.00 breakout area. 38 still must be taken out , nq already topped

(Mar 05-15:56) mike: there should be good volatility next week. mkt vulnerable under 38. enjoy the rest of your day, and weekend

 

 

Thursday - March 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 04-09:47) mike: top i think, sell under 22.50-23.00

(Mar 04-09:54) mike: careful short unless 1120 is broken , a sclp only
(Mar 04-10:00) mike: tht should be it
(Mar 04-10:05) mike: 22.50-23.00 must be cleared / held. a toppy area. or break/ hold under 20.00
(Mar 04-10:05) mike: short under 23 here,

(Mar 04-10:22) mike: 18.50-17.50 a support to scalp out
(Mar 04-10:24) mike: 21.00-21.50 good resist now
(Mar 04-10:29) mike: The early strength was reversed at 1123, the breakdown area from yesterday. That should be a top, and bounces are still shorting opportunities. The 111.80-1118.00 area will ned to hold to avoid testing/ breaking the 1115.50-1115.25 area

(Mar 04-10:37) mike: stay with shorts, 1120.50 again key resist

(Mar 04-10:43) mike: key supp nailed, 1112-1111 still likely if 18.50-19.00 not exceeded

(Mar 04-10:54) mike: The ES dropped down 7.50 points to the 1115.50-1115.25 area and turned up. The 1112-1111 area could be seen if 1118.50-1119.00 is not exceeded and held.

(Mar 04-11:00) mike: not impressive bounce from a key area. 3 days now w/ a low in that 1115.50-1115.25, and that was former resist. a transistion to the ownside occurs if/ when that is broken

(Mar 04-11:17) mike: 1120.00-1120.50 key resist again. 18.50 supp now need to hold or we drop again

(Mar 04-11:33) mike: they should cave in here

(Mar 04-11:51) mike: The ES reached 1120.00 on the bounce from the 1115.50 low. That area was tested 3 days in a row now, and was a former resistance area. That is a major area that must hold, or the market makes a bigger picture transition to the downside. On top here, the 1120.00-1120.50 zone is still a pivotal resistance zone. We are in a choppy trading range right now, but the market is still vulnerable unless that 1120.00-1120.50 zone is cut through with some momentum.

(Mar 04-12:08) mike: be short under 1120.00-1120.50, its a lid like 1122.75 was yesterday after breaking 1123. a 2 point range for awhile should break bfore 12:15

(Mar 04-12:40) mike: 3rd failure at/under 1120, that should be it, a bounce off 1117.75 area is a must - or to 1115 we go again

(Mar 04-13:00) mike: as long as the bottom of the range keeps being bid, buy em down there and sell em at the top of this range. keep it light and use a tight stop on other side of range both ways

(Mar 04-13:18) mike: 19.50-19.00 should/ must hold now

(Mar 04-13:27) mike: it broke, a bounce will fail to clear 1120.50 resist still
(Mar 04-13:31) mike: poor action, if there is a pop its a short w/ stop over 20.50

(Mar 04-13:49) mike: this range trade, small daily ranges, it winding the mkt into an energy explosion soon. its not good id 1115 isn't reversed.
(Mar 04-13:51) mike: all of these drop lately were bid right back up but then failing. this shouldn't exceeded 1119.50 or so now

(Mar 04-14:06) mike: 19.00 reached with Tick extreme, now mid range too - key spot if going lower here

(Mar 04-14:26) mike: it looks like we'll chop around in between 1120-ish and 1115-ish before employment data in the morning. the NQ is acting pretty well. but ES is sluggish. don't get chopped up in this, tomorrow a better day volatility-wise


(Mar 04-14:30) mike: the NQ held 1850-1849 three times this morning, thats the key to holding the mkt up, if they drop here, it must be defended a 4th time, not easy

(Mar 04-14:42) mike: The ES turned up from 1117.75 and the NQ held 1850-1849 three times this afternoon and we got a pop up to 1120.25 so far. The market is in decent shape as long as those lows are held on a pullback, but still the odds of a bounce holding doesn't look good.

(Mar 04-15:04) mike: another failure. internal gauges will have bearish divergence so 1115 area could break tomorrow

(Mar 04-15:26) mike: they made a little double top at 20.75 but shallow pullback. that 1119 should hold, or else they'll get hit in the last 30 minutes.

(Mar 4-15:54) mike: looks like 1120.50-1120.00 is now supp - update will be short and later than normal. have a good rest of the day

 

Wednesday - March 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 03-09:29) mike: 19.25-18.50 needs to hold now,

(Mar 03-09:33) mike: short under 20.50
(Mar 03-09:35) mike: 18.50 supp 1

(Mar 03-09:48) mike: ISM Services top of the hour. 1118 is key supp now

(Mar 03-10:05) mike: start getting swing trade short on bounce, highs should be in
(Mar 03-10:09) mike: 1120.50 is pivotal, a break of that takes them to 1118 , a major area today

(Mar 03-10:16) mike: 1120.25 low there... still, 1122 needs to be cleared/ held to avoid trouble

(Mar 03-10:21) mike: 123 pattern

(Mar 03-10:27) mike: The ES opened higher, pulled back to 1118.25, then turned back up and took out the 1122.75 high from yesterday. The 1120 level needs to hold to avoid a reversal now. A turn down near 1123 is a short, but the pressure is not on unless 1120 and then 1118 are broken.

(Mar 03-10:29) mike: that 123 pattern should mark a top / 1122.50 resist now must be cleared to nullify it

(Mar 03-10:50) mike: nq rejected 1859 area 4 times, needs taken out -- a break under 1855 there could bring the mkt down. and break a wedge pattern -- but still, 1120 is the line in the sand . nothing bad happens unless broken

(Mar 03-11:05) mike: The ES turned down from 1123.25 but only dipped to 1121.75 before turning back up and reaching 1124.50 so far. The 1122.50-1122.00 area now needs to hold to avoid breaking the trend and starting a decent pullback. The 1126.50-1128.00 area is next resistance on this move up, and a potential reversal area if the move stalls out.

(Mar 03-11:10) mike: 23.50 needs to hold now or trends change

(Mar 03-11:29) mike: mkt getting tired here, but as long as 1123 holds the trend up move continues. if broken, then things change. 26.50-28.00 should offer good resist if reached

(Mar 03-11:42) mike: tired mkt , a bounce from 1123 here is a short

(Mar 03-11:53) mike: 24.25 should not be exceed/ held now and 23 must break within next 5-10 minutes, maximum, to roll over

(Mar 03-12:00) mike: The ES has been in a choppy trend up mode to 1125, and now must stay over 1123 to avoid a reversal. The 1126.50-1128.00 area is still possible, but the 1123 level must not break. Also, trend moves into a 2pm Fed announcement are usually reversed so careful with any long positions into that timeframe.

(Mar 03-12:07) mike: a pullback to 1120.50-1119.75 is a key area for today, if that is not reversed the bigger picture changes to bearish.
(Mar 03-12:11) mike: if the mkt tests the highs [tho it shouldn't] or makes a lower high and stalls out, a swing trade short is in order, this is all set up for a flop very soon.

(Mar 03-12:49) mike: The NQ would need to get over 1858, mkt still in sell bounce mode

(Mar 03-12:57) mike: The market reversed afterthe 123 top/ double top at 1125 and the break of 1123 turned trends down. The bounces are shorts as per last night's update the downside could gather steam. The 1120.50-1119.75 area is key support and a break would be another sign of a break down.

(Mar 03-13:04) mike: well they proved that 1120.50-1119.75 is a key area. a scalp long from there if tested/ reversed but don't get married to a long up here

(Mar 03-13:36) mike: the target on swing trade is 1112-1111 area on 1/2 of it. need a break / hold here under 1120 for more pressure

(Mar 03-13:47) mike: The 1120.50 level gave a bounce to 1122.75, but it didn't stick as support has turned into resistance. The 1120.50-1119.75 area is being tested and after the Beige book a break/hold under that area would put pressure on the downside. The 1112-1111 area could be tested if that occurs.

(Mar 03-14:18) mike: 22.75 shouldn't be exceeded, still a short on bouces

(Mar 03-14:24) mike: 1115.25 should be tested, 1112-1111 still a tarrget. 22.50-23.00 good resist

(Mar 03-14:32) mike: 1120.50-1121.00 initial resist on a bounce , beware if Vix closes the day up. it will give 4 of 5 possible sell sigs
(Mar 03-14:37) mike: The 1122.75 resistance turned the market back down and the break of 1120.50 opened the door for more selling. Bounces will not hold so stay with shorts down to 1115 or the 1112-1111 zone. The 1120.50-1121.00 should offer good resistance, and 1122.75 now key resistance.

(Mar 03-14:41) mike: if NQ breaks 1849, that could add pressure now

(Mar 03-14:47) mike: if you have shorts from around 1123 or so, and a day trade, cover at least some dn here
(Mar 03-14:47) mike: swing trade, still have 1112-1111 in site, maybe not today
(Mar 03-14:51) mike: some support down here, but a top in and could see a larger drop before done on the downside

(Mar 03-15:03) mike: 1850 on NQ looks key to get over/ hld now. ES should stay under 1120

(Mar 03-15:13) mike: should fail in here under 19 if going lower
(Mar 03-15:16) mike: under 1120.00-1120.50 resist - 1853-54 NQ

(Mar 03-15:22) mike: a break of 17.50 needed to put pressure on

(Mar 03-15:30) mike: 17.50 held. still, bounce will have a hard time sticking. 1120.50 area still key above

(Mar 03-15:50) mike: key area to end the day near. as long as 17.50 holds, it can avoid breaking down tomorrow

(Mar 03-15:52) mike: fyi, there is still an opening for trading camp that starts on Sunday. we'll cover why this selling was ''high odds'' to start. contact tradestalker2@verizon.net if you are interested.
(Mar 03-15:54) mike: watch 1120.00-1120.50 for resist overnight, a key area now. enjoy the rest of your day.

 

 

Tuesday- March 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 02-09:21) mike: 1121.50-1122.50 rejected - very key resist now this morning

(Mar 02-09:51) mike: 1119.75 shouldn't be exceeded / held now - it must to avoid trouble

(Mar 02-10:07) mike: A 123 Top

(Mar 02-10:15) mike: short the bounces down to 1115-1114 or lower, ugly pattern

(Mar 02-10:21) mike: 18.50-19.25 area should besold if a valid reversal

(Mar 02-10:34) mike: stopped at 18.75 and dip to 17.50. it looks like 17.50 is pivotal this morn - a break/ hold turns trend down. over it, no damage done and 1121.50-1122.50 key resist above

(Mar 02-11:16) mike: this stair step higher is bullish, 1119.50 needs to hold . for a scalp the 1121.50-1122.50 area on the ES and 1856.75-1858.00 area on the NQ is a short with a tight top just over the zones

(Mar 02-11:27) mike: if 1120 ES and 1854 NQ break, then we get a drop to 17.50 or so. mkt ''okay'' unless we get that break

(Mar 02-11:45) mike: the ES needs to get thru 1121.75 soon, losing momentum churning at resist area

(Mar 02-11:50) mike: i'll be back in 30 min or so, still ill

(Mar 02-12:26) mike: 17.50 must hold, top in for awhile

(Mar 02-12:32) mike: The 1121.50-1122.50 area on the ES was a lid on top for about an hour, and that might be it for the rally if the 1117.50 area breaks. If that happens, then the 1112.00-1111.25 zone is huge and could be tested.

(Mar 02-13:03) mike: 1121.00 should be rejected if topping out up here today

(Mar 02-13:55) mike: a real snoozer so far, tomorrow we get Fed Beige book, and that will start an increase in volatility. narrow range, low volatility at a high for a move is normally bearish. the daily indicators getting close to overbought - and Vix looking similar to the 2/19 top. imo, not time to be long but for scalps up here . it will take a break of 1119 that isn't reversed right away to put any selling pressure on, so thats a key supp this afternoon.

(Mar 02-14:03) mike: 21.00 area needs to be strong supp now

(Mar 02-14:14) mike: The ES pulled back to 1118.75 and turned back up and just poked over the 1122.50 resistance by 1 tick and backed away. The market should be close to a top for this leg up, and the 1119 area needs to hold or a top will likely be in place.

(Mar 02-14:30) mike: a bounce to test the highs is a gift short, NQ especially. but top looks in place, 1121 now good resist

(Mar 02-15:11) mike: Since reversing from 1122.75 the ES pulled back to test the early lows reaching 1117.25 so far. It will take a break and hold back over 1121 in order to get out of trouble today.

(Mar 02-15:14) mike: holding over 19 should be hard to do if this is going lower

(Mar 02-15:20) mike: that 19 area needs to be exceeded / held or going quite a bit lower

(Mar 02-15:38) mike: a token lower low, day trade shorts should cover 16.75 or better

(Mar 02-15:45) mike: 15 min left, but this could see 1114.50 before close. 17 shouldnt be exceeded
(Mar 02-15:49) mike: not going to see 14.50 now. 18.50-19.25 very good resist
 

 

Monday- March 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Mar 01-09:43) mike: 1110.50 rejected, 1108.50-1108.00 needs to hold to avoid reversal. 1829 on NQ

(Mar 01-10:12) mike: The ES reached the 1110.50-1111.00 zone and the move reversed about 16 minutes in, and then spiked to a low at 1107.25 on the ISM release and turned right back up. As long as the 1107.25-1106.50 area is held, the market will be in decent shape. Just be aware of a reversal from the 1114.50-1115.00 zone.

(Mar 01-10:19) mike: 1111.00-1110.50 supp, must hold to keep uptrends going

(Mar 01-10:36) mike: a bounce from here a short if stalls near 1111.50
(Mar 01-10:40) mike: that sure acted like a top. if the 1107 breaks today, then a decent pullback is underway

(Mar 01-10:56) mike: sell em in here near 1112, tight stop
(Mar 01-10:58) mike: need a break of 1111 soon , else scratch out, 15 seonds
(Mar 01-10:59) mike: scalped out of that.
(Mar 01-11:00) mike: 1111.00-1110.50 must break soon here
(Mar 01-11:04) mike: back short, tight stop as looks like a pivotal area here
(Mar 01-11:06) mike: 1111 needs to break soon t have dbl top on Dow at 10400
(Mar 01-11:08) mike: back off shorts for now, unless 1111 breaks or 1115 area reversed

(Mar 01-11:27) mike: The ES pulled back to 1108.75 and rallied to 1114.50 resistance so far. It has been a coppy trend up move but if the 1111.50-1111.00 area is broken, then that 1114.50-1115.00 area should be a top. If that area is exceeded, then 1117.50-1118.00 should be reversed.

(Mar 01-11:31) mike: that if 1112.50 is broken, then trends change. a pop to 1114.50-1115.00 area is a short zone with a tight stop.

(Mar 01-11:49) mike: a little 123 top, or double top at resist. need to stay over 1111.75 now - 20ema on 5 min chart held 2 times so far and rolls over if broken

(Mar 01-12:12) mike: if short from up here scalp out then buy a dip that holds over 1112 - if 15.00 breaks we can possibly see 1118-ish.... as long as 1112 is held

(Mar 01-12:16) mike: The market has been in a choppy trend up mode but failed twice at the 1114.50-1115.00 area so far. A pullback should hold over 1112 now or the trend move will be reversing.

(Mar 01-12:30) mike: option prices cheap, i'm buying some qqqq puts for a swing trade / decent pullback. reward/ risk on these look good

(Mar 01-12:55) mike: toppy up here, 1110.25 is 60ema and earlier low area - now a key area on a drop. then 1108. IF 1115 exceeded, then upside to 1118 possible, but upside lost mo

(Mar 01-13:02) mike: The 1112 level was broken and unless the 1114.50-1115.00 area is exceeded and not quickly reversed the pullback could go towards the 1108 area, and if that's not reversed then towards the 1105.50-1104.50 zone today.

(Mar 01-13:10) mike: that 1111.25 was a support around 11am this morning, and 1111 was old dbl top also... that area must hold or a sizable move lower is possible

(Mar 01-13:19) mike: if heading lower, this pop should fail and reverse from no higher than 13.75 here nd drop again soon

(Mar 01-13:50) mike: as long as 1111.50-1111.00 holds, more important today the 1842 little double bottom on NQ, the mkt will avoid any damage done. just beware of selling near 1117.50-1118.00 area if 1115 exceeded / held

(Mar 01-14:08) mike: shorting against resist until broken or 1111 tested

(Mar 01-14:18) mike: back to buying dips over 1113
(Mar 01-14:19) mike: 14.00-13.50 should hold if heading towards 1117
(Mar 01-14:22) mike: a prairie dog. tricky action. short a pop , especially if 1113.50 break here

(Mar 01-14:53) mike: i'm a bit under the weather here. this drop needs to hold 1111 area, otherwise we start to get hit with more selling. a break/ hold over 14.50 to take pressure off. back in awhile

(Mar 01-15:46) mike: a narrow range day must stay over 1112 area now or its a tip-off for a selloff
(Mar 01-15:48) mike: QQQQ puts slightly profitable here, a carry over for deeper drop here

 

Friday- February 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 26-10:35) mike: somehow my updates didn't get thru here. fixed now i hope. this is sell on a pop here, resist still rejected
(Feb 26-10:36) mike: 1101.50 is a key supp now , thats the break level
(Feb 26-10:38) mike: 07.50-08.00 next resist .
(Feb 26-10:41) mike: a reversal from up here likely, but dips are buying opportunity as long as 1101.50 area holds
(Feb 26-10:49) mike: The ES had more trouble at the 1103.50-1104.25 resistance and dropped to 1096.25 before reversing and taking out that resistance. The 1107-1108 area is a short if reached and reversed. The 1101.50-1101.00 area needs to hold on a pullback or else a top could be in place.

(Feb 26-10:55) mike: if 1101.50 holds, a bounce to a lower high a short
(Feb 26-10:59) mike: NQ MUST STAY OVER 1814, or its a sign of weakness

(Feb 26-11:24) mike: bounce to lower high reversed. 1105 should not be exceeded
(Feb 26-11:28) mike: the mkt holding ok. would be careful shorting for now, hit n run. 1101.50 is still key supp, 1814 NQ
(Feb 26-11:31) mike: scalp out if short, need break of 1102

(Feb 26-11:46) mike: mkt getting a bit tired. a wedge type pattern too
(Feb 26-11:50) mike: 1103 also 20ema on 5 min chart, which held on last 2 dips - and 1105 held for 2 seconds

(Feb 26-12:00) mike: The ES bounced to a lower high and REVERSED has pulled back towards the 1102.00-1101.50 support. If the 1105 area is rejected again, and/or the 1102.00-1101.50 area is broken, then things change and the bears would then take control.

(Feb 26-12:15) mike: 03.00-03.50 good resist, shouldn't be exceeded

(Feb 26-12:50) mike: be short under 02.50
(Feb 26-12:53) mike: 1099 should be seen
(Feb 26-12:57) mike: i'm unable to see messages - sorry. if 1099.0-1098.50 is not held, we can drop towards / thru the lows

(Feb 26-13:08) mike: struggling here under resist...
(Feb 26-13:09) mike: 1818 is also good resist,
(Feb 26-13:11) mike: however if 02.00-02.50 cleared again, and not reversed, could get a run towards 1107-1108 and that would be a short.

(Feb 26-13:28) mike: this is getting a bit stretched out, but its a buy above 1101.50 - if tht breaks its a fakeout
(Feb 26-13:30) mike: 1103.25 cover if long
(Feb 26-13:32) mike: a fake out move, next pop a short
(Feb 26-13:33) mike: ok, careful of reversal but they ok over 02.00 still

(Feb 26-13:45) mike: toppy here, but if 02.50 holds then 1105 still possible, 1107-1108 a big area if 1 more push here, not reverse again

(Feb 26-13:56) mike: 03.25 needs to hold to keep this going. but exiting any longs up here near 1105 not a bad idea

(Feb 26-14:15) mike: 1105 rejected a 3rd time, if 1103 holds, another pop could go to 1107-1108 then drops. of 03.00 breaks, we can drop to 1101 or so

(Feb 26-14:25) mike: this is very lethargic action. at these levels, having failed again at 1105 but still holding over 1102.50 support, a run to the 1107-1108 area a good short. need to hold 1102.50 to have tht chance

(Feb 26-14:31) mike: The ES got over the 1102 updated resistance and held and tested the 1105 high. The pullback held 1102.50 so the trends are still up. A run towards the 1107-1108 area that reverses is a good short. The 1102.50-1102.00 area needs to hold or a top will then likely be in place.

(Feb 26-14:40) mike: options are cheap, i'm buying some puts up here , this acts toppy , small position to start

(Feb 26-14:53) mike: if they can get thru 1105, still can go on up to 1107-1108.50 area. but getting late. they are ok as long as 1102.50 holds . but still i doubt at pop will stick

(Feb 26-15:01) mike: the 3rd try.. 1104.50 must hold now , it should final break thru
(Feb 26-15:04) mike: 1104.25 held.. but bid evaporate at a high so another pop is a short,
(Feb 26-15:09) mike: puts, add to them on a pop to test highs

(Feb 26-15:18) mike: if no reversal soon, 1107-1108 get attacked - 1104 must hold

(Feb 26-15:30) mike: that was the reversal. 1105 must not break or the drop could gather momentum
(Feb 26-15:33) mike: if you bought some puts, keep them over the w/e, especially if they settle under 1104
(Feb 26-15:36) mike: 1102.50-1102.00 is next support if 1104 breaks

(Feb 26-15:37) julie: Hey, Mike's birthday is tomorrow...HAPPY BIRTHDAY MIKE!!

(Feb 26-15:59) mike: a real battle zone. a close under1104 is bearish and mkt acts toppy anyhow

(Feb 26-16:01) mike: 1102.50-1102.00 tested, you can cover part / all of shorts there due to risk tolerance, i keeping it on
(Feb 26-16:02) mike: enjoy your weekend

 

 

Thursday- February 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 25-09:08) mike: 1088 tested now pre open. this will be a short on any rally intraday. 1094 then 1098-1099 are the 2 resist to clear/ hold to turn the trends

(Feb 25-09:26) mike: a big down day possible if 1094 not cleared, 83-82 next, then 79 is major

(Feb 25-09:50) mike: 88.50-89.00 now initial resist, must clear it and hold to take some pressure off.

(Feb 25-10:01) mike: 88.50-89.00 is pivotal. pressure on still

(Feb 25-10:11) mike: 3 tests of 88.50-89.00 resist. it needs to be exceeded/ held to take some pressure off

(Feb 25-10:20) mike: 4 rejections, but 87-86 area has been holding, that 87 must break to roll over again
(Feb 25-10:27) mike: a top there on nq
(Feb 25-10:36) mike: possible dbl top there 1788 nq. it must be cleared
(Feb 25-10:40) mike: a little wedge breakig
(Feb 25-10:45) mike: NQ is weaker and a better short , if a good trade on long side sets up, the ES a better long.
(Feb 25-10:51) mike: 87.50 now a key supp. its turning into a quiet sneak higher at the moment, but the mkt breaks lower if that is not held.
(Feb 25-11:01) mike: top, wedge now broken, a pop here is a short - 89.50-90 area
(Feb 25-11:05) mike: The ES popped up to test 1090.25 and reversed. That also is where the 20ema on 5 minute chart is at this time. The short side on bounces is still better odds for now.

(Feb 25-11:13) mike: 87.50 continues to catch a bid. if that finally goes, then 85 can be tested
(Feb 25-11:20) mike: still bearish under 89.50-90.00 area, if short covering part 85.75
(Feb 25-11:24) mike: 87 or better to cover part,
(Feb 25-11:26) mike: 87.50 or better... its hanging in there
(Feb 25-11:29) mike: feeble bounce - 89.50-90.00 still strong / key resist
(Feb 25-11:31) mike: should see 85.50 if 88 not cleared

(Feb 25-11:46) mike: 85.75 was reversed . 88 needs to be exceeded / held tho now to reverse a bit

(Feb 25-12:05) mike: ok, 85.75 hs been a floor, a dip can be bught for scallp long.. its now major supp now.

(Feb 25-12:38) mike: they are in buy mode over 88.00-87.50 now, up to 91.25-92.00 zone -- NQ needs to stay strong over 1784.50 or all bullish bets off

(Feb 25-12:42) mike: The ES grinded down to 1085.75 and made a little double bottom there before turning back up. The lows should be in place as long as the 1088.00-1087.50 area on the ES is held. The 1091.25-1092.00 area is next resistance.

(Feb 25-13:02) mike: 89.00 must hold, or it rolls over
(Feb 25-13:09) mike: 1091 .00-1091.50 is a cluster of resist, 3 things there and mkt is a short under that zone. a pop to 89.50 area tht stalls is a good short
(Feb 25-13:13) mike: The 1088.00-1087.50 area on the ES is holding, but unless the
ES gets over the 1091.00-1091.50 area and then holds on a pullback the market is vulnerable for more selling.

(Feb 25-13:56) mike: 97.50-98.50 is possible ,
(Feb 25-13:57) mike: 92.50 will hold if this to keep rallying
(Feb 25-14:02) mike: The ES took out the 1091.00-1091.50 area and sprinted to the 1098.50-1099.00 resistance. A pullback to the 1093.50-1092.50 area will hold if this is going to continue.

(Feb 25-14:16) mike: need to pop from here. a lower high that reverses would set up a short

(Feb 25-14:30) mike: short under 98
(Feb 25-14:39) mike: a break of that 95 low needed for move to 92-91 area where there is good support

(Feb 25-14:51) mike: stalled at 98, if that 95 level breaks, 92-91 supp must be reversed
(Feb 25-14:59) mike: The 1098 level was tested 4 times but 1095.50-1095.00 area is holding strong and now and the market only gets into trouble if 1095 is broken.

(Feb 25-15:08) mike: need to stay over 96.50 now, a reversal up here possib le , but ok unless break 96
(Feb 25-15:10) mike: if long sell out into this emotion
(Feb 25-15:12) mike: 98.00-97.50 neededs to hold or tht is likely a top

(Feb 25-15:18) mike: if 98.50 isn't held, then might see 95 tested.

(Feb 25-15:27) mike: 96 is now trend support that must hold to end the day in a bullish mode. - a break means this is a fake-out like yesterday close
(Feb 25-15:31) mike: 99.50 was held for 1 minute before turning down last time. need to hold that to keep going
(Feb 25-15:39) mike: watching 1805 area on NQ - it was a transition area, needs to stay over on a drop. a low made 20 minutes in, a high could be made near 3:45 if going to run out of gas
(Feb 25-15:42) mike: anyway, 99.50 held. still strong over that level
(Feb 25-15:44) mike: 02.50-03.00 strong resist
(Feb 25-15:48) mike: 1100.50 now must hol d
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 02.50-03.00 a short zone.
(Feb 25-15:55) mike: 98.50-98.00 needs to hold to keep this bullish looking into the close.
(Feb 25-15:58) mike: two different mkt's today, and a big ol trading range. as long as 98 holds the mkt is in a bullish mood. have a nice rest of the day

 

 

Wednesday- February 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 24-09:49) mike: 1099.00-1098.50 must hold now

(Feb 24-10:07) mike: The market opened strong and the ES reached 1102.00 and then dropped fast to 1097.25. The 1096.50 area needs to hold to avoid a top for the morning at least.

(Feb 24-10:24) mike: 97.50-98.00 pivotal resist

(Feb 24-10:42) mike: 98.00-97.50 area should hold

(Feb 24-10:53) mike: The market is moving fast as the reversal from 1094.00 saw buyers jumping in and running the ES straight up to the 1103.50-1104.00 resistance so far. We're getting 2-sided action, but the dips are buying opportunities as long as the 1092 level is held today.

(Feb 24-10:57) mike: 1102.50 must hold to keep this going. stall at resist, short / stop just over the high for a scalp
(Feb 24-11:03) mike: should take off higher from 1102.50 if still strong. if broken 1100.50-1100.00 supp

(Feb 24-11:12) mike: lost mo, must stay over 1102.50 or rolling over

(Feb 24-11:20) mike: 1101.25 needs to hold. a pop here should fail now

(Feb 24-11:33) mike: The ES reversed from 1105 but the pullback was well contained so far. A bounce to a lower high that reverses is a short. On the downside, the 1100.25 is small trend support and if broken then the 1097 area is pivotal and must be quickly reversed if reached.

Due to an appointment the next update will be later this
afternoon.
(Feb 24-11:34) mike: back in 90 minutes i hope

(Feb 24-13:33) mike: just back, my apologies. it looks very good unless 1101 breaks . 1108 next resist if it can stay over 03.50

(Feb 24-13:50) mike: if a top is in, 1103.75 resist will be sold

(Feb 24-14:00) mike: The ES made a double top at 1105 but as long as the 1101.50-1101.00 area is held the dips are buying opportunities. The action is good, but must hold above that area or else a reversal will occur.

(Feb 24-14:02) mike: i'k getting small short up here.
(Feb 24-14:03) mike: nq has a wedge type pattern
(Feb 24-14:05) mike: if 1101 breaks, a push to 97.50-96.50 would be possible

(Feb 24-14:12) mike: 10360 on Dow cash needs to hold to avoid a break of this cigar type pattern. stay with shorts, that is the tipping point
(Feb 24-14:15) mike: if short take part off near 1101.75 or thereabouts
(Feb 24-14:17) mike: if then 1101 is cut thru, a bounce back should fail near 1102.50 or lower

(Feb 24-14:22) mike: 1101.75-1101.25 area good support, possible transition area from up to down.

(Feb 24-14:34) mike: 1102.75 resist
(Feb 24-14:38) mike: nq broke triangle, 1812-1814 good short on nq
(Feb 24-14:39) mike: a big ''if they bounceback there n stall

(Feb 24-14:43) mike: The ES dropped back through 1101 and now 1098.50 must hold to avoid more downside, towards 1096.50-1096.00 or even 1093-1092 key support. There is resistance at 1102.00-1102.50 now.

(Feb 24-14:57) mike: the drop held 98.50 by half point, bounce missed 1102 resist by 1 tick. if you shorted near 1104 with me, cover and see which side wins here

(Feb 24-14:59) mike: nq is at a spot where it needs to turn up quick, else drop to test its 1800.50 low

(Feb 24-15:38) mike: the mkt has a good bid over 1098.50 it looks, so buy dips over that. a bit similar to yesterday last hour so far

(Feb 24-15:57) mike: 1102.25 now pivotal supp, should not be broken

 

 

Tuesday- February 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

 

(Feb 23-10:05) mike: 98 held, but bounces will fail

(Feb 23-10:12) mike: 1100 resist now, 1093.75-1093.00 major supp short term.

(Feb 23-10:19) mike: The lower open was bought and the bounce failed just under 1108 resistance and dropped hard to test the 1093.75-1093.00 zone. The 1100 area must be cleared to take pressure off.

(Feb 23-10:25) mike: if 94 breaks, could drop towards 88.50-88.00 next key

(Feb 23-10:42) mike: need to get over 96-97 to change trend. not an impressive bounce from a key area just yet

(Feb 23-10:49) mike: 97 rejected. must break/ hold that to avoid more downside here

(Feb 23-11:09) mike: bounce high at 98 old supp, look for a pop to short if not short already. 1098.00-1100.50 is good/pivotal resist zone now

(Feb 23-11:26) mike: an attempt to double bottom at 10300 dow cash. that must hold or we head towards 1088

(Feb 23-11:33) mike: The ES bounced to 1098.00, which was former support, and turned back down. The low at 1093.50 support held, but the action is tepid at best. The 1088 area could be seen if the Dow cash breaks under 10300 and holds. Otherwise, the 1098.00-1100.50 zone is now key resistance that must be exceeded/ held to avoid another push lower.

(Feb 23-12:00) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart also at 1097.25 now. that area is a short until broken/ held
(Feb 23-12:07) mike: NQ again leading press lower. it has to get over 1795 to get out of trouble. 88.50 possible if Dow breaks 10300 here so manage shorts for now -