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Friday- February 03, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Feb 3, 2012 9:33:13 AM EST
mike: this should sell down to the 1332.50 area

Feb 3, 2012 9:37:54 AM EST
mike: 1333.25- 1332.25 area should be the first important support, and then 1329 .75 level

Feb 3, 2012 9:51:50 AM EST
mike: the 1333.25 was hold, should be selling at 35.50-36.50 but now 1333 sheets to hold

Feb 3, 2012 9:54:21 AM EST
mike: careful with long in this area

Feb 3, 2012 10:05:59 AM EST
mike: when the market has a large gap up open on a Friday, odds are not good for it to be filled on that day. ISM services data gave it a pop-up that was sold in to. still lots of time for the market to do what it wants. 1335 area should be first important support below us now than that 1333 .25-1332.50 area is very important to stay over this morning

Feb 3, 2012 10:18:37 AM EST
mike: as long as this doesn't break below the 1336 area and hold the market stays bullish. We should get a shakeout if that happens. Looks to be in good shape and could see 1342-1344 area if they can stay over 1337 .75 and pushover 1339 .50 and hold that

Feb 3, 2012 10:37:07 AM EST
mike: 1336.50 needs to hold. shouldn't drop more than 2.75- 3.00 points off of the high or there could be a better pullback. At the moment it looks okay unless 1337.50 breaks

Feb 3, 2012 10:45:36 AM EST
mike: 1338 is a small support that needs to hold on the next pullback. So far they haven't been able to hold over 1339.50 and this could see a pullback

Feb 3, 2012 10:50:41 AM EST
mike: 1338 .00 held so far, but if this is not able to push over 1339 .50 on this move up then a pullback two 1336.50 area

Feb 3, 2012 11:03:37 AM EST
mike: this move has run out a steam but there should be buyers at lower levels. 1336.50- 1335.75 area is support\target 1339.50 resistance needs cleared and held

Feb 3, 2012 11:17:10 AM EST
mike: 1336.50- 1335.75 area still looks like a key area that needs held or quickly reversed to keep the market from rolling over towards 1333. 1337 was a low on the pullback

Feb 3, 2012 11:22:20 AM EST
mike: 1339- 1339 .50 area that needs pushed through to get the upside going but a failure/rejection of that area would give another pullback. In any case the move this bullish as long as 1336.50 is held

Feb 3, 2012 11:32:42 AM EST
mike: they are stuck at 1339.50 but if they hold 1338.75 and can push through 1339.50 and hold then it's possible for this to go for 1342 1344 area on this leg up

Feb 3, 2012 11:37:17 AM EST
mike: needs to stay over 1339.50 after poking through 1340 to make that move towards 1342-1344 otherwise it's a bit toppy up here

Feb 3, 2012 11:57:16 AM EST
mike: they have been stuck here for about 25 minutes. We still need to stay over 1339.50 after a push through 1340 to extend the upside towards 1342-1344. NQ needs to get over 2527 and hold

Feb 3, 2012 12:00:15 PM EST
mike: a bounce should be sold now especially on the NQ. The ES has a short around 1339

Feb 3, 2012 12:05:20 PM EST
mike: 1336.50 is still the important support to bounce from on a pullback. It will probably be hard to keep the market down today, just small pullbacks unless 1336 .50 is broken and not quickly reversed. The short side is for a scalp trade only. 1342- 1344 is still possible

Feb 3, 2012 12:20:21 PM EST
mike: 1340 was touched and backing of from that level. don't expect much of a pullback the market seems to feel comfortable in this area, as long as 1336.50 is not broken and quickly reversed back up

Feb 3, 2012 12:36:43 PM EST
mike: the 1340 has been a lid and continues to be rejected. a pullback should be bought around 1338.50 1337.75 area. This is slow in choppy, the market shouldn't have another big trending move unless it's late in the day

Feb 3, 2012 12:52:42 PM EST
mike: 1342-1344 area still could be in the cards here on this leg up 1339.50 should hold now to continue higher

Feb 3, 2012 1:04:59 PM EST
mike: 1339 .50 brought in some buying. that high area at 1341 .50 should be hard to get through and hold. That 1339 .50 area should hold, or be a transition area if broken to test the 1338 area

Feb 3, 2012 1:13:26 PM EST
mike: 1339.50 was held again. They need to hold that and push over 1340.50 and stick up there to get a push to 1342-1344 area it appears

Feb 3, 2012 1:23:06 PM EST
mike: 1339 .50 needs to hold or they will drop down to 1338.50 or a bit lower before turning back up, the ES should be unable to hold on a bounce from 1339 .50 again

Feb 3, 2012 1:26:26 PM EST
mike: I need to take a quick break here, back in 10 minutes or so

Feb 3, 2012 1:51:10 PM EST
mike: this should bounce from 1338.50, but expect a bounce to be sold around the 1340.50 area. If that's not sold then there is one more pushed to 1342-1344 area

Feb 3, 2012 2:11:11 PM EST
mike: they turned up from 1338 .75-would scalp out that or keep a stop at breakeven at the worst

Feb 3, 2012 2:21:29 PM EST
mike: a big 2.00 point move from 1 tick over 1338.50 support. needs to hold 1340

Feb 3, 2012 2:40:13 PM EST
mike: the better part of the last two days have been unbearably slow and dull / it just needs to stay over 1338.75 or trend break

Feb 3, 2012 2:55:28 PM EST
mike: look for a high that the 1342- 1344 area as long as 1339.5 is held.

Feb 3, 2012 3:04:45 PM EST
mike: I'm not going to be here after a few minutes. . This rally doesn't want to stop, but a reversal from that area could make a top ./ I don't like the way that the NQ. is acting up here

Feb 3, 2012 3:07:01 PM EST
mike: have a great weekend. Here's to a volatile week next week!

Thursday- February 02, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Feb 2, 2012 9:31:05 AM EST
mike: running late. 1322-1321.50 must hold that looks

Feb 2, 2012 9:37:09 AM EST
mike: support held, but not in good shape unless they move over 23.50-24.00 and it can hold. 21.50 broken we go to 2050 and lower possibly

Feb 2, 2012 9:41:12 AM EST
mike: they can go back to 1319.25 or lower if no bounce off of 1320.50

Feb 2, 2012 9:47:52 AM EST
mike: 1319.25 just missed so far. Should bounce a bit from here,1321.75 area would be first resistance on a bounce

Feb 2, 2012 9:52:00 AM EST
mike: 1319.25 still a target, if no bounce off of that, 1317 area or lower coming. This stays bearish under 21.50

Feb 2, 2012 9:57:39 AM EST
mike: 1319.25 low at support. That must hold, should be important low early. This could get out of trouble if 1321.50 area is exceeded and then held

Feb 2, 2012 10:02:40 AM EST
mike: 1321.50 area it is support now. Good /key resistance at 1323.00-1323.50 per last night's update

Feb 2, 2012 10:08:39 AM EST
mike: the bounce from 1319.25 stopped right at the 23.00-23.50 area. But 1321.50 held so far, that should be pivotal

Feb 2, 2012 10:14:49 AM EST
mike: 1323 area support now.1321.50 is still pivotal. they may have topped if that isn't held

Feb 2, 2012 10:19:42 AM EST
mike: 1323.00 was bought keeping the bounce in gear. Bernanke speaking could make this more fluid. this must stay over 1323 to avoid reversal

Feb 2, 2012 10:21:54 AM EST
mike: obeyed support on the way up from low at the updated support at 1319.25. NQA high might be in following the

Feb 2, 2012 10:28:05 AM EST
mike: that NQ is acting odd so not following it so closely for now. 1324 needs cleared for the market to get out of some trouble here, 1321.50 important area

Feb 2, 2012 10:41:13 AM EST
mike: for now as long as the ES holds 1322.25 and the NQ holds 2494 area, no damage done, no reversal - but will be if broken. A push over 24.00 needs to stick here to/keep- get the upside going

Feb 2, 2012 10:43:38 AM EST
mike: look for 1325.00-1325.75 for a resistance up here. This should hold 1323.50 to stay strong

Feb 2, 2012 10:46:18 AM EST
mike: a bounce from 1323.50 support, that area needs to hold to keep the up side intact here

Feb 2, 2012 10:51:56 AM EST
mike: 1325.75 was reached- they start to be resistance up there

Feb 2, 2012 10:53:53 AM EST
mike: a drop from that resistance needs to hold 1324.25 1323.75 area at the lowest to keep the move from reversing, or at least a decent pullback

Feb 2, 2012 11:08:21 AM EST
mike: top out at 1326 so far, just above the 1325.75 resistance. Pullback held just over the 1323.75 important support on first test. A break of that and we would have high in place

Feb 2, 2012 11:09:04 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 15 minutes. My apologies

Feb 2, 2012 11:36:04 AM EST
mike: dynamics are changing, if they go under 1322.25-1321.75 area, they would need to turn right back up -otherwise reversing towards low of the day potentially. Possibly test 1318.75-1318.00 area before finding a bounce

Feb 2, 2012 11:39:04 AM EST
mike: 1322.25-1322.75 would be resistance, bounce but should make a test of the low if that's not exceeded/held

Feb 2, 2012 11:59:22 AM EST
mike: 1322 .25 just missed. 1322.00 the bounce high so far. that should be important. A move down through 20.75 needed to get a break lower going towards 1319 .25 and then 1308.50- 1308 .00 area

Feb 2, 2012 12:00:38 PM EST
mike: if that 1320.75 is held then they can attempt to move towards 1323

Feb 2, 2012 12:08:01 PM EST
mike: still must get over 1322.25, or the 1318.50 area can be seen if they hold on push under 20.75

Feb 2, 2012 12:13:58 PM EST
mike: 1320 .75 broken, looking for a test note this morning's low and likely a move to 1318 .50- 1318.00 area. that would be a key area, but need to hold world market in some trouble

Feb 2, 2012 12:22:33 PM EST
mike: 13/18 .75 low on that move. a key area. or 1316-1315 zone could be seen. 1320 .75 resistance now and needs clear to get a bounce

Feb 2, 2012 12:32:17 PM EST
mike: the ES made a bottom just one tick above the 1318.50 support, so far. The NQ still rolling over and may pull the ES down with it

Feb 2, 2012 12:32:41 PM EST
mike: 1320.75 still resistance

Feb 2, 2012 12:40:36 PM EST
mike: the market has reacted off of a support or resistance on the way up than on the way down all day so far. If you have my e-book or read the greed live course, look over "last trapped" as it has worked best on the micro term when the market is moving slowly. This break should open the door for a drop down to the 1316-1315 area still. The NQ should be leading the way

Feb 2, 2012 12:46:56 PM EST
mike: a pullback will be a buying opportunity now, a low should be in for a while

Feb 2, 2012 1:04:47 PM EST
mike: 1319.50 area is a good support now. That will need to hold on a pullback. the 1321.50 is resistance

Feb 2, 2012 1:10:02 PM EST
mike: 1319.75 was bought on the dip, that support area needs defended on the next pullback. This can push up towards 1322 .25 on a move over 1321 that holds, not reversed back down. Shouldn't be if the move is strong

Feb 2, 2012 1:19:43 PM EST
mike: 1321 was reversed, need to get over that and hold 1320.50 on a dip to get the upside going, not stall out and make another top up here

Feb 2, 2012 1:38:50 PM EST
mike: 1319.75- 1319.50 has been holding. Another pullback has to hold there or they roll over fairly hard. Need a move over 1321.50 to spark a bit of a squeeze move to the upside. That's also right at 12,700 on the Dow cash

Feb 2, 2012 1:57:37 PM EST
mike: holding 1321.50 keeps the move and bullish mode for now. 13 23 .50-1324 possible

Feb 2, 2012 2:09:47 PM EST
mike: 1321 .50 is holding so can still see 1324 on this move. If 1321.50- 1321 is broken then things could change

Feb 2, 2012 2:21:03 PM EST
mike: a lot of folks have left due to the lack of volatility. it was just a slow grind higher but will start to break lower if 1321 is not held.

Feb 2, 2012 2:45:41 PM EST
mike: they held at 1321 .25 and just missed getting to the 1323 area -market has been back and forth, 1323-1323.50 area that was key early coming into the day is key resistance on any bounce now. A drop back to 1319 .25 or even 1318 area again possible if 1321 area broken-obviously important in this range

Feb 2, 2012 2:53:31 PM EST
mike: they bounce off of 1321 so the upside still has a chance. that must hold it appears. in any case I need to leave early today and there's not much volatility to trade.

Feb 2, 2012 2:57:46 PM EST
mike: employment number in the morning also. Have a good rest of your day.

Wednesday- February 01, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Feb 1, 2012 9:36:49 AM EST
mike: This could go to 1321-22 area as long as they don't break 1318-1317.50 area. but if a drop doesn't hold 1318 then they can drop down through-to the

Feb 1, 2012 9:39:28 AM EST
mike: the next bounce should fail, might have high in especially if 1319 not held

Feb 1, 2012 9:47:41 AM EST
mike: resistance around 1319needs cleared and held to avoid a drop to 1316-1315

Feb 1, 2012 9:57:22 AM EST
mike: 1319 50 was rejected, for economic data top of the hour\need to get over 1319-1319.50 and although her that. If they break/pulled under 1317 50 the pressure on

Feb 1, 2012 10:00:17 AM EST
mike: for right now, buyers in charge as long as 1317 is held

Feb 1, 2012 10:00:51 AM EST
mike: to test 1321-22 area

Feb 1, 2012 10:01:57 AM EST
mike: focus on shore side on bounces

Feb 1, 2012 10:05:42 AM EST
mike: another bounce from 1317. The bounce should fail maybe 1321-22 area, but no damage done until 1317 broken

Feb 1, 2012 10:13:07 AM EST
mike: 1321-22 area slightly exceeded, 1321 .50 a small support, 1319.50 area needs to hold on a pullback if going to avoid reversal.

Feb 1, 2012 10:20:29 AM EST
mike: 1321.50 held so far. If broken then 1320 .50 area small support would be next

Feb 1, 2012 10:32:02 AM EST
mike: they topped out for now, this should drop down to 1320 area

Feb 1, 2012 10:35:32 AM EST
mike: 1320.75- 1320 .25 area should be a place where a bounce can come from.

Feb 1, 2012 10:38:53 AM EST
mike: if that 1320.75 area not held then 1319.50- 1319 should be a key area. If that's reached, they should bounce right back or things will be changing. 1322.25 has resistance now that needs to be cleared/held

Feb 1, 2012 10:49:47 AM EST
mike: longs are quick to nab a profit on a pop. Bounces aren't sticking yet but as long as 1321 is held buyers are in charge but quick to grab profits so far

Feb 1, 2012 11:08:08 AM EST
mike: selling came in at the Globex high but buyers are firmly in charge at the moment. To break this, the ES would need to break below 1321.50 and the NQ breaking under 2479 and not quickly turning back up.

Feb 1, 2012 11:19:23 AM EST
mike: it needs to bounce from here, 1323 needs cleared and held if so, market is tired

Feb 1, 2012 11:22:04 AM EST
mike: should bounce with gusto and take out 1322.50-1323 and keep going, otherwise a top will be made up here

Feb 1, 2012 11:50:06 AM EST
mike: it's getting a little bit thin and choppy. 1321 area must hold for this to avoid a breakdown

Feb 1, 2012 12:17:16 PM EST
mike: this is having trouble going higher through 1324 , 1321 is still the key support to hold to avoid breaking down, the market is bullish as long as that holds for now, remember that was a prior resistance

Feb 1, 2012 12:19:55 PM EST
mike: the new high has been sold them the next pullback gets bought normally. Watch 23.50 area for support

Feb 1, 2012 12:40:37 PM EST
mike: the NQ needs to stay over 2488 and the ES needs to stay over 1324 or the dynamics will be changing

Feb 1, 2012 12:51:06 PM EST
mike: they are stalling out and ready to roll over

Feb 1, 2012 12:51:45 PM EST
mike: they need to bounce off of 1324 or 1323.50 area at the lowest, or things will change

Feb 1, 2012 12:54:44 PM EST
mike: the 20 EMA on the five-minute ES chart has moved up to 1323.50 so that is another reason they need another bounce from 1324 here to keep up upside intact

Feb 1, 2012 1:01:06 PM EST
mike: I have top in place, need to push through 1325 soon, otherwise a pullback from up here could start

Feb 1, 2012 1:06:39 PM EST
mike: 1325-1324.50 area should hold now if this is going to continue its grind higher

Feb 1, 2012 1:21:41 PM EST
mike: this is going to go to the 1328-29 area or higher the way it's looking. I wouldn't short this market the way it's acting, just five pullbacks until something changes

Feb 1, 2012 1:30:14 PM EST
mike: they're finally should be a breather and pullback from that 1327 area. A lower high would be a logical spot for a pullback. 1325 days to hold where things will be changing at least on the short-term intraday basis

Feb 1, 2012 1:45:24 PM EST
mike: 1327 rejected twice and should be a good top now. They bounce back to 1325.50 areas should be sold. 1324 is a minor support area for a bounce to occur

Feb 1, 2012 1:57:23 PM EST
mike: bounce failed just under 1325.50,and 1323.75 was reached.. They don't down unless they go under 1323.50 and then stay under that level, and maybe more importantly breaking the 1322-1321 old resistance turned support, to turn this all back down

Feb 1, 2012 1:58:44 PM EST
mike: bounces to the 1325-1325.50 area should fail for now, look for a short in that area if reached

Feb 1, 2012 2:03:44 PM EST
mike: 1325.50 was a resistance coming into the day but not listed in the support/resistance table. That looks to be like a pivot area. A rejection of that area would keep the market short-term negative although the 1327 high. If that is cleared, then the uptrend is back in force

Feb 1, 2012 2:15:23 PM EST
mike: the way this is acting, the market is not going to roll over and start a trend down type of move. Buying came in at 1323.50, market should be in an uptrend as long as that is held

Feb 1, 2012 2:35:40 PM EST
mike: it's getting choppy. There was a quick bounce off of 1323.50 again but it didn't stick. I think selling bounces around 1320.50 the better odds, cover him at 1323.50. That will turn into resistance there is a break to the downside towards 1321 area

Feb 1, 2012 2:43:55 PM EST
mike: they tagged 1325 for a short and now 1323.50 to cover. This is turning into key support with 1321 for the next support below.

Feb 1, 2012 2:46:21 PM EST
mike: I'll be back in about 10 minutes., Look for 1322-1321 area to be tested on a break that's not quickly reverse here at 23.50

Feb 1, 2012 3:09:57 PM EST
mike: they only fell to 1322.75, and are back close to 1325. A pushover that could cause a bit of a squeeze

Feb 1, 2012 3:11:17 PM EST
mike: doubt that it will be enough to get through 1327 by much

Feb 1, 2012 3:21:32 PM EST
mike: market doesn't seem to like it up there around 1326 and 1327. A drop under 1323.50th that isn't quickly reversed should start a move to 1322-1321

Feb 1, 2012 3:25:32 PM EST
mike: 1322 .00 was reached and gave a small bounce so far, 23.50-24 .00 should be resistance on a bounce now

Feb 1, 2012 3:33:25 PM EST
mike: the bounce stopped one tick below the 1323.50 resistance and a move to 1321 needs reversed quickly to avoid a poor close

Feb 1, 2012 3:38:51 PM EST
mike: 1321 held by one tick so far. That could be the late low. If not been 1320.25-1319.50 area would be next have they do break through 1321

Feb 1, 2012 3:39:03 PM EST
mike: have a great rest of your day
 

Tuesday- January 31, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 31, 2012 9:33:15 AM EST
mike: opening at 1316 resistance - to turn down they need to break under 1315 and hold

Jan 31, 2012 9:40:41 AM EST
mike: this needs to hold over 1316 area now on a pullback, that is now support that needs to hold. 1317.50- 1318 could give pullback

Jan 31, 2012 9:44:32 AM EST
mike: 1315-1316 resistance on a bounce. A break under 1313.50 send them lower

Jan 31, 2012 9:46:06 AM EST
mike: should go to 1310

Jan 31, 2012 9:54:42 AM EST
mike: NQ leading the ES again, starting its move about 5-6 seconds or so before the ES begins to follow it. The 1312.50-1312.00 area it is key to hold or they go to 1310 for a bounce

Jan 31, 2012 9:58:09 AM EST
mike: 1312.00 a low so far -more economic data coming in a few minutes

Jan 31, 2012 10:01:19 AM EST
mike: 1310 should be tested, sell bounces if not short 1312.50 area resistance now

Jan 31, 2012 10:05:35 AM EST
mike: the bounce to 1312 was sold staying under that day go to 1307 area. 1312.50key resistance now

Jan 31, 2012 10:11:26 AM EST
mike: 1307 tested. 1310.50 is resistance that shouldn't be cleared, but if it is then the 1312 area it is key resistance and should be pivotal. Another push lower targets 1305-1304.50

Jan 31, 2012 10:17:54 AM EST
mike: 1307 target area was reached, this bounce shouldn't be able to get over 1310.50 and stick to low is in place- if it does then 1312 area is the key area. If that is not sold then a move towards 1315 possible where that would be good selling territory

Jan 31, 2012 10:23:42 AM EST
mike: 1310.25 bounce high and a 1.75 point pullback caught a bid. Need to stay over 1308.50 to avoid breaking down, and get over 1310.50 and hold to try to get upside going again.

Jan 31, 2012 10:32:22 AM EST
mike: bounce stopped just under 1312 so far. if they don't hold 1309-1308.50 then there can be another push lower towards 1305-1304.50

Jan 31, 2012 10:36:04 AM EST
mike: two small pullbacks of 1.75 points from the bounce highs. Should roll over 1309.75 is broken by much here

Jan 31, 2012 10:41:53 AM EST
mike: 1305- 1304.50 is support on this drop lower. The 1309.50-1310 should be resistance on a bounce from here . The NQ is still leading the move

Jan 31, 2012 10:51:22 AM EST
mike: 1305.50 was reached, just above 1305-1304.50 area. 1307.50 should not be exceeded if you're going to test/break that 1304 .50 area

Jan 31, 2012 10:56:33 AM EST
mike: 1304.25 a low so far. They need to get over 1307.50-1308.25 to take pressure off. The 1302-1301 zone would be next support 1304.25 can't hold, and we should see a bounce from that area if reached

Jan 31, 2012 11:04:19 AM EST
mike: 1308.75 should be a key resistance on a better bounce off of 1304.25 low. back in about 10-15 minutes

Jan 31, 2012 11:18:34 AM EST
mike: yesterday was a gap down day with a reversal in a trend up move. This could be the opposite. it will depend on the 1302-1301 area - it is key to avoid sliding down towards 1298 or lower. 1305 area is resistance. Needs to be cleared and held on a pullback to try to get turned back up

Jan 31, 2012 11:41:40 AM EST
mike: last bounce was turned back from 1305 area, but are holding just above the key 1302-1301 area. A push up through 1305 that can hold will start a relief bounce to 1307-1308 area

Jan 31, 2012 11:48:52 AM EST
mike: this needs to get over 1305 to avoid another push to lower.. NQ leading lower still

Jan 31, 2012 12:10:47 PM EST
mike: one hour of trading between 1305.25 point top and 1302.25 on the bottom. That low was just above a key support, this should try at least one decent bounce. Could go to 1307-1308 area if they can breakout on the upside and hold 1305 on a pullback

Jan 31, 2012 12:18:06 PM EST
mike: for now this looks like it's out of trouble and can rally two 1307-1308 if 1304 is not broken

Jan 31, 2012 12:20:13 PM EST
mike: 1306 .50 should be watched for a pullback two 1305.

Jan 31, 2012 12:27:03 PM EST
mike: a heavy market and bounces not able to stick, and they have no gusto behind them. This needs to bounce from 1304.50 area to avoid potential breakdown and also keep a chance to test 1306.50 or higher before this comes back down again

Jan 31, 2012 12:37:42 PM EST
mike: they popped up to 1306.50 so far- and the NQ appears to be firming up a bit. a pullback now needs to stay over 1305. If that isn't held then the bounce is probably over. 1307.5 0-1308 next resistance

Jan 31, 2012 12:46:20 PM EST
mike: bounce high should be in, watching the NQ to see if it can hold or bounce from 2456, if they can't then the market could roll over again. If it does we could get one more pop up

Jan 31, 2012 12:57:28 PM EST
mike: 1305 held on the pullback and now this needs to pushover 1307, not fail there, to get a move towards 1308. In any case 1305 it is now dynamic support needs to hold

Jan 31, 2012 1:14:36 PM EST
mike: the ES held just above the 1302-1301 pivotal support after the early drop of 15 points. That's about the average range over the last 3, 5, and 10 days. So should have a low in, if not then something is wrong or broken with the market. There could be a pullback from the 1308 area but as long as 1306.50 holds this trend stays up. If broken then 1305 is still a key area along with 2457 on the NQ. If 1308 is not rejected, but the blown through instead, then 1310 .50-1312 area would be possible

Jan 31, 2012 1:21:24 PM EST
mike: 1308 was touched , 1307 needs to hold now and 2461 on the NQ in a very slow grind higher

Jan 31, 2012 1:33:09 PM EST
mike: look to sell if there is one more pop up, but it looks like we may have seen a high

Jan 31, 2012 1:41:14 PM EST
mike: market pattern is in a bad position. 1308 was rejected, and it caused a wedge was broken. The rejection of 1308 is similar to the rejection/hold at 1302 this morning. Could mean a test of 1302

Jan 31, 2012 1:47:42 PM EST
mike: it breaks under the 1305 level would be needed to trigger selling down to 1302- 1301 area

Jan 31, 2012 1:58:45 PM EST
mike: 1305 .50 is a pivotal level to stay under, 2459 area on NQ, both look to be pivotal

Jan 31, 2012 2:03:38 PM EST
mike: that pop up to 1305.75 on ES and that 2459 on the NQ showed rejection and it is a short under against those levels

Jan 31, 2012 2:19:37 PM EST
mike: there could be a test of that 1308 area and possibly a bit higher that gets rejected

Jan 31, 2012 2:23:44 PM EST
mike: 1309 rejected. That should be a high, if not then 13 11 area should be the maximum on this bounce. 130650 is a s.mall support that needs to hold, then it's 1304

Jan 31, 2012 2:47:14 PM EST
mike: drop down to 1306.50, needs to bounce here or go to 1305-1304 area again

Jan 31, 2012 2:54:34 PM EST
mike: 1306.50 held, it's a key area now. 1308 needs to be cleared and held to get a move up to 1310.50- 1312 area

Jan 31, 2012 3:04:07 PM EST
mike: there is good resistance at the 1309 level, it's a short under that area down to 1306.50 at least. It's possible that they go back to 1304

Jan 31, 2012 3:12:18 PM EST
mike: 1309 was rejected again, but in the last hour the market will be okay as long as it holds 1306.50. if 1306.50 is broken, the ES should go right to 1305-1304 area. If they cut through that, then they should go right to the 1302 low area, possibly break that by a tiny bit before turning back up

Jan 31, 2012 3:23:30 PM EST
mike: if this doesn't hold 1307 .25 then the next bounce will be sold. Look for sellers around 1310-1311 in any case

Jan 31, 2012 3:38:38 PM EST
mike: sellers at 1309.75, keeping it under 1310 will be bearish. 1306.50 piece to hold or they could slide down to the 1304

Jan 31, 2012 3:43:30 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day. I'll see you tomorrow morning maybe a little bit later than usual. This chart pattern is a dangerous one, a number of the breakdown points are building. They haven't broken yet anyhow have a good day

Monday- January 30, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 30, 2012 9:29:26 AM EST
mike: 1299 area is met, and needs to hold down there. 1302 should be pivotal, if clearer than held then the key resistance is at 1307-1308 area

Jan 30, 2012 9:37:00 AM EST
mike: 1298 .25- 1298.50 is a key, must hold, area. need a move over 1300 to hold, and then they push over 1302 to avoid more trouble

Jan 30, 2012 9:38:04 AM EST
mike: staying under 1300 keeps pressure on

Jan 30, 2012 9:39:23 AM EST
mike: that could be a low for a bit, but need to see 1300 cleared/held to even try to get something going on the upside.

Jan 30, 2012 9:42:17 AM EST
mike: should be okay as long as 1299 holds at the moment

Jan 30, 2012 9:45:13 AM EST
mike: 1302 area will need to be clear and held on a pullback to keep moving higher. 1299.50 is a important support now, that should be held to keep this up

Jan 30, 2012 9:50:01 AM EST
mike: 1301.25-1302.00 area need to be cleared and held to get something going on the upside. Not trusting bounces

Jan 30, 2012 9:52:48 AM EST
mike: 1296-1295.50 is a support that could give a bounce, 1292.50-1292 area is one key area that must hold on a deep drop to avoid a potential breakdown of this pattern

Jan 30, 2012 9:55:11 AM EST
mike: 1299.75 area resistance on this bounce. Then the key area at 1301-1302 if that is cleared

Jan 30, 2012 10:01:05 AM EST
mike: it stopped just under what should be pivotal resistance so far at the 1301.25-1302 area. this can stay over 1298.25 on the next pullback then it should be putting in a low. If not held then we could have a drop-down to around 1296-1295 area

Jan 30, 2012 10:07:07 AM EST
mike: still has its work cut out for it to get out of trouble., but if you bought put options last week with me cover half of the position. down here.

Jan 30, 2012 10:13:02 AM EST
mike: 1298.50 needs to be cleared/held to take some pressure off.

Jan 30, 2012 10:21:55 AM EST
mike: a wimpy bounce so far to 1298.50 resistance. 1299.50 has to be exceeded to begin to dig out of this hole .

Jan 30, 2012 10:26:43 AM EST
mike: this pullback needs to stay over 1297.50 now to have a low in place

Jan 30, 2012 10:33:03 AM EST
mike: a quick reversal back up from 1297.25, that area should be key to hold now. This still needs to pushover 1299.50 to have a low and place for a while

Jan 30, 2012 10:44:41 AM EST
mike: 1298.50 is now support that needs to hold if going higher to test 1301.25-1302 area. If that breaks, then a drop to 1297.50 - 1297.00 at least

Jan 30, 2012 10:51:08 AM EST
mike: reach the 1301.25-1302 key area. This should avoid trouble as long as 1299.50 area is held. That is pivotal now on a pullback

Jan 30, 2012 10:58:24 AM EST
mike: it was sold just under 1302.00, a pullback to 1299.50-1299.00 area is support it needs to be held if there's going to be another push higher. Keep an eye on the NQ it should stay over 2438 or the market would be in trouble

Jan 30, 2012 11:06:18 AM EST
mike: the ES is going to be following the NQ as it is leading with some gusto. 2444 is key support over there. 1300.25 the key on the ES on a pullback. 1302 now should hold on a small dip to power higher or It could begin to look toppy and test those key areas.

Jan 30, 2012 11:10:34 AM EST
mike: pullback held 1302 and pushed higher but it didn't stick. pullback to That 1302 area needs to hold to avoid testing 1300 area again

Jan 30, 2012 11:14:14 AM EST
mike: the move stalled out, this pullback could go to 1300.75-1300.25 but would need to turn right back up from that area or the market will be rolling over

Jan 30, 2012 11:18:57 AM EST
mike: held over 1301.75 so far. that area should be pivotal support. NQ still the lead to keep an eye on. back about 10-15 minutes

Jan 30, 2012 11:41:24 AM EST
mike: market is and a good uptrend that could go for 1307-1308 area if this keeps grinding higher. that new highs for the move are being sold, but only get pullback. Move should tire out pretty soon. only if they break under 1302 now on the ES and it's at the 2452 level on the NQ looks to be pivotal up here,

Jan 30, 2012 11:47:55 AM EST
mike: 1301 .25 is a pivotal area to hold on this pullback.. A high should be in for a bit, or at least fail on the next pop-up

Jan 30, 2012 11:55:29 AM EST
mike: 1302 on the ES and 2452 on the NQ held so far, should be even more important to hold now. If those break than a high should be in place for a while

Jan 30, 2012 12:15:53 PM EST
mike: both 1302 on the ES and the 2452 on the NQ were held/quickly reversed. a push up over 1304 is needed to get one more push higher and look for a test of 1307-1308. That area should offer some good resistance

Jan 30, 2012 12:23:44 PM EST
mike: as long as 1303 holds or it is quickly reversed if broken, this grind up to 1307-1308 still is in the cards. The 1302 area is a key support that must hold to avoid a reversal and topping pattern

Jan 30, 2012 12:30:13 PM EST
mike: we will have the first test of the 60 EMA on the five-minute chart at 1305. The Dow cash has been in a very thin grind higher to just under 12,600 so far. Buyers are in control, they could see a pullback from up here is the 1303 needs broken to begin building a top

Jan 30, 2012 12:39:24 PM EST
mike: they drop from a resistance on the bigger picture to support on a smaller time frame. This should go lower from up here and possibly to the 1301.25 area which is the pivotal area up here

Jan 30, 2012 1:05:46 PM EST
mike: we had the pull back off of the stall at 1304.25. They held just above that 1302 on the ES and also that 2452 level on the NQ. If those are broken, then a high should be in place and a good sized retracement gets started. a retest of this morning low would then be possible before the market makes a bottom. 1305 should be good resistance if they pop up one more time from here

Jan 30, 2012 1:13:28 PM EST
mike: can bounce from lists 1301.25 area but it shouldn't take out 1304 before pulling back again

Jan 30, 2012 1:26:47 PM EST
mike: 1304 exceeded on the bounce. Pull back needs to hold around 1303 now. If reached it needs to turn right back up.

Jan 30, 2012 1:35:43 PM EST
mike: the market wasn't too far away from breaking the rising wedge pattern this morning. the 1296 area, especially on a close, mark that as a key support. it's going to be Bad news if it's broken now given that the market has had a decent rally from that area. a parabolic move would also be breaking. Should see a bit of a pullback from 1305, but This can go fill the gap that 1307 area IF it stays over 1303.50 at the lowest .

Jan 30, 2012 1:38:21 PM EST
mike: it has been a been Gap day/trend day which is pretty common. 1307-1308 should be in the cards, then some pullback

Jan 30, 2012 1:46:04 PM EST
mike: gap at 1307.00 almost filled. 1310-1312 strong resistance above that should be sold if reached. 1304.25 should now be good support on a pullback.

Jan 30, 2012 1:54:19 PM EST
mike: 1307-1308 area turned into a good wall of resistance for now. A decent pullback would be likely, but not as long as 1306 holds. If they break 1306 and the test of 1304.25 could be seen. That's a key support now than the market would need to bounce from there

Jan 30, 2012 2:03:29 PM EST
mike: 1306.25 held on the pullback, keeps the move in a trend up mode. It begins to break down to possibly test 1304 area

Jan 30, 2012 2:11:46 PM EST
mike: still holding 1306. need a push over 1308 to get a squeeze to the 1310.50-1312.00 area

Jan 30, 2012 2:17:45 PM EST
mike: 1308 area needs to hold now. They pop up to 1310.50-1312 could happen but should be sold into

Jan 30, 2012 2:29:33 PM EST
mike: 1308 was tested again and a small bounce. 1310.50-1312 .00 still important resistance above. 1308 needs to hold or this can roll over a bit from up here

Jan 30, 2012 2:43:30 PM EST
mike: still hovering over 1308. As long as that holds there should be a poke up to 1310 .50- 1312 .00 area,

Jan 30, 2012 2:50:19 PM EST
mike: 1310.50 was just missed, 1308 tested, a high should be in so look for next bounce to be sold

Jan 30, 2012 3:04:59 PM EST
mike: this is a top in place at least for today, he bounced back should fail to get over 1308.50- 1309 area now. 1306 is a minor support, 1304 area must hold or a test/break of 1301

Jan 30, 2012 3:19:17 PM EST
mike: they stalled and turned up from just above1306, now if there is going to be a late pullback then either they rally and to 330 p.m. And reverse from around high at 1310.50, or reverse back down under 1307.75, which could put some pressure on if not quickly reversed back up.

Jan 30, 2012 3:32:02 PM EST
mike: they dropped down to 1307 .50, then quickly turned up. That is key in the last half-hour, could still pop up to 1310 .50- 1312 area if they can stay over 1308.50 .if 1307.50 not held, could see a late drop

Jan 30, 2012 3:32:36 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day. I'll see you in the morning.

Friday- January 27, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 27, 2012 9:22:15 AM EST
mike: I'm going to focus on the short side today unless something happens that changes my mind. Looks like 1309.25 is a small resistance, 1312.50 area is small resistance, but 1315-1316 area, that area should be pivotal and sold if they can bounce that far. Should be a short covering bounce from this lower open - they need to stay over 1308.50- 1308.00. But expect the bounces expecting the bounces to fail

Jan 27, 2012 9:28:52 AM EST
mike: I think I need to cut down on the number of updates I send. I noticed that there was a ton to read, so I'll only give what looks most important, and try not to be so wordy

Jan 27, 2012 9:36:07 AM EST
mike: short covering bounce, look for resistance at 1312.50 area and if that's taken then 1315-1316 area is next. 1309.75 area is early support needs to hold on a pullback

Jan 27, 2012 9:43:45 AM EST
mike: we get Michigan sentiment at 9:55 AM, 15 minutes from now. This needs to say over 1312.50 and hold, at worst stay over 1311 to avoid rolling over.

Jan 27, 2012 9:59:46 AM EST
mike: 1311.75 is a dynamic support that needs to hold or the bounce will be reversed. not much of a reaction from the Michigan sentiment. a pop up to the 1315-1316 area still possible, but that should be sold if they get that far, might have topped already but that's the first key area on this bounce

Jan 27, 2012 10:03:39 AM EST
mike: we should have a top in place. 1309.50 first support then the low area around 1307

Jan 27, 2012 10:05:56 AM EST
mike: 1311.75-1312.50 area is resistance on a bounce, but if 1309.50 isn't held it may not get back there

Jan 27, 2012 10:12:23 AM EST
mike: so far they turn up from 1309.50 area but still under pressure as long as they stay under 1311.75-1312.50 area

Jan 27, 2012 10:18:08 AM EST
mike: they made it to the resistance area with some gusto. watch 1310.50 area on a pullback. . If they get there and bounce right back, then the market can try one more push higher

Jan 27, 2012 10:22:25 AM EST
mike: a short from 1311. 75 area should be covered (at least part) at the 1310.50 support. they turned down from a pivotal resistance, but they bounce from this area possible if going higher

Jan 27, 2012 10:27:41 AM EST
mike: 1310.50 area was bid up well, that area needs held on a pullback to avoid rolling over and giving it better indication that a high would be in. 1315-1316 is a bigger resistance if this is able to get through the early high

Jan 27, 2012 10:31:24 AM EST
mike: 1311.75 area needs to hold as support now.

Jan 27, 2012 10:40:04 AM EST
mike: a double top at tick extreme, buying dries up/taking profits or selling from buyers who are stuck above when the bounces stall out. This is a short under the 1312.50 area now, 1314 area should be exceeded

Jan 27, 2012 10:43:31 AM EST
mike: extreme tick on the downside, needs to bounce from 1309.50 or later up another point to 1308.50. A bounce from here should fail to clear the high, and hold

Jan 27, 2012 10:51:34 AM EST
mike: they reached 1308.50 and turned up, 1308.50 is still key support. but as long as they stay under 1311.50 area they are still vulnerable

Jan 27, 2012 10:52:51 AM EST
mike: back in 10 minutes or so

Jan 27, 2012 11:23:43 AM EST
mike: we have had a choppy 7 point range so far. need to be a scalper mostly on a day like this. Look for a pop-up to a higher high in the uptrends to be sold as soon as the move stalls out. And then they pull back 1.50-2. 00 points, that's been the pattern so far.. it's the opposite on the pullback as soon as the move stalls out. They should give a quick bounce. at the moment this uptrend stays intact unless 1311.50 is broken. If that is broken then 1310.75 needs to hold

Jan 27, 2012 11:30:19 AM EST
mike: pullback of 1.50 points off of the high, and then bounce back quickly-.if the NQ begins to break lower in those under 2455 and doesn't turn right back up, it can pull the ES down

Jan 27, 2012 11:38:34 AM EST
mike: any decent bounce will be sold into. 1311 area is resistance in the 2455.50 area on the NQ. They could be headed towards 1307 if no quick reversal from 1308.50

Jan 27, 2012 11:42:44 AM EST
mike: look for 1306-1305.50on a break of 1308.50 here,

Jan 27, 2012 12:05:46 PM EST
mike: they should pull back from that 1311.75 bounce high and need to hold the 1309.50 to keep a bounce from failing

Jan 27, 2012 12:12:58 PM EST
mike: still think that 1306-1305.50 area get seen. 1309.50 looks pivotal on a bounce

Jan 27, 2012 12:34:18 PM EST
mike: it looks like a double bottom but if 1307 is broken then we should continue to push lower to the 1306-1305.50 area and then bounce back. On the top side, the 60 EMA on the 5 minute chart turned the ES down 3 times now. It's currently at 1311.75 and it needs to be pushed through to get a run to test this morning's highs

Jan 27, 2012 12:51:53 PM EST
mike: 1309..50 has been holding as a pivotal support. 1310.50 has been hard to get over so a very of that 1309 .50 could start and move two 1208 again

Jan 27, 2012 1:01:21 PM EST
mike: look for 1306-1305.50, should be tested if they stay under 1309 .50

Jan 27, 2012 1:09:15 PM EST
mike: triple bottoms normally don't hold, but this one might be able to mark a low if they get over 1310.50, and don't quickly turn right back down. Could it be rally to test 1314 if they break over 1310.50, and then hold over 1310 on a pullback. Need a push over that resistance to get going on the upside

Jan 27, 2012 1:24:17 PM EST
mike: Need a push over 1311 to finally get over the 60 EMA on the five-minute chart, its fifth test of that today within a few ticks

Jan 27, 2012 1:41:50 PM EST
mike: 1311 was finally pushed through and 1312.50 almost reached. a pullback needs to hold at about 1310.50 at the furthest to keep this heading up towards 1315 area

Jan 27, 2012 1:51:38 PM EST
mike: stall out, most push through 1312.50 in the next few minutes. 1311.00-1310.50 area is support that needs to hold on a pullback

Jan 27, 2012 2:07:15 PM EST
mike: they held at 1311.25 and popped up to 1313.00, that was soundly rejected. that it is telling, not much more upside if any, if so then 1311 area needs to hold and start a bounce right away

Jan 27, 2012 2:15:37 PM EST
mike: so far they held 1310.50 and bounced a bit. If there is one more push higher it will set up a shorting opportunity. I'm not crazy about being a buyer near the support the way that 1313 was rejected tells me that there is good supply just above

Jan 27, 2012 2:39:48 PM EST
mike: it looks like a lot of folks left for the weekend. The market is very dull, there has been some good moves this week, so it might not be a bad idea. I will probably be cutting out a bit early myself. FYI: in 4-6 weeks from now I'm going to be adding charts (just my main screen) and some occasional audio commentary.. those who are current members when this begins can be a charter member, and at least get a discount on a few other things we might be rolling out before spring arrives. Let's hope things work out so this can begin by the end of next month, sooner if at all possible. This looks like it wants to go to test the high, watch for rejection if they get there or just above. The 1315.00-1315. 50 area should be key resistance to end the week

Jan 27, 2012 3:05:37 PM EST
mike: needs to stay over 1312.50-1312.25 at the lowest if this is going to go for the 1314.25 early high and possibly 1315-1316 area. If they don't fail at that area, then 1318 could be next. Would be surprised to see that area reached however

Jan 27, 2012 3:10:48 PM EST
mike: 1312.50 was the last support for the ES to bounce off of. Unless that is broken this should push on towards 1314.25 and maybe up to that 1315-1316 area

Jan 27, 2012 3:14:31 PM EST
mike: the new high was made. if they come down and break 1312.50, the 2457 on the NQ, then the uptrend could be breaking but the buyers are in control as long as those are held

Jan 27, 2012 3:17:46 PM EST
mike: 1315- 1316 area would be a spot to exit any longs, should be a key resistance. have a great weekend! I'll see you here on Monday morning - take care

Thursday- January 26, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 26, 2012 9:29:08 AM EST
mike: amazing market. the 1325 area is the first support and that needs to hold. If that is broken and not reversed right back then they could be headed to the unchanged level around 1320.50.

Jan 26, 2012 9:31:14 AM EST
mike: opening strength sold, 1327.50 resistance

Jan 26, 2012 9:32:50 AM EST
mike: 1324.50 area needs to turn this back up or we could see 1321

Jan 26, 2012 9:36:46 AM EST
mike: that gap was filled. 1326 needs cleared and held to get this turned up, otherwise 1321 area as possible

Jan 26, 2012 9:55:34 AM EST
mike: 1324.50 area turned them up and then 1326 was exceeded and then held on a pullback. If this holds over 1326.50 they could get to the 1329-1330 area before backing off

Jan 26, 2012 9:58:51 AM EST
mike: 1329.50 resistance met, Econ data top of the hour, 1327.50 support now

Jan 26, 2012 10:05:20 AM EST
mike: 1329.75 high at resistance and rejected. top is in for now, a bounce will be sold -1326 then the low at 1324.50 must be held or it's a sign of weakness

Jan 26, 2012 10:10:03 AM EST
mike: that should be about it for the bounce. 1328 would need to be cleared and held to get one more push higher, only to be sold again

Jan 26, 2012 10:19:19 AM EST
mike: so far they've been able to say over 1324.50. If they hold that area today, it could set up a bearish pattern for a top. It's the NQ that's keeping the market up. If that turns weak then the ES should really get hit with more selling

Jan 26, 2012 10:20:30 AM EST
mike: so far the NQ has a double top at resistance, the market is in bearish mode off over the 1329.75 top at resistance

Jan 26, 2012 10:25:01 AM EST
mike: 1321-1320.50 area is next support. A bounce back should have trouble getting over 1325.25 area

Jan 26, 2012 10:30:23 AM EST
mike: we could get a bounce from down here, but it should fail under 1325.25 area at the most the way this is looking

Jan 26, 2012 10:35:47 AM EST
mike: avoid longs and just look for shorting opportunities. 1320.50 area needs held or longer timeframe trends rollover

Jan 26, 2012 10:40:37 AM EST
mike: 1320.50 the low so far. the biggest intraday pullback this month has been 13 points if I recall correctly. That would be 1316 area on the ES, and the 1315 area is my major transition area today. They could trade down to that area before a decent bounce can occur

Jan 26, 2012 10:48:50 AM EST
mike: 1320 was the low of yesterday closing range. The NQ double top at resistance was strongly reversed and that was a help pushing the ES lower. 1321.50-1322.25 area would need to be cleared and held to take some pressure off. 1316-1315 area should be a good target for this move down

Jan 26, 2012 11:01:25 AM EST
mike: i need to be away for 15 min

Jan 26, 2012 11:23:57 AM EST
mike: 1318 was a logical spot for a bounce, but they still need to push over 1321.25and stick on a pullback to get a bounce going. Still in trouble otherwise.

Jan 26, 2012 11:40:29 AM EST
mike: after the first 20-40 minutes of trading, if in a down trend use the updated resistance to sell against. If in an uptrend and use the updated support to buy against. That is the best way to use these dynamic areas for trade setups. Hopefully the other instructions make sense as they are spelled out. you should have received an article on how to best use the tradestalker service when you signed up. please give that another look. we will be refining that soon although it's pretty much all inclusive as it is. back to the market here, the downside stalled out and can have a countertrend bounce if the 1321.25 is cleared. the 1319.50 level needs to to be broken to get that move towards 1316-1315 area

Jan 26, 2012 11:56:31 AM EST
mike: 1321.25 was the bounce high and 1319.50 was broken but no acceleration lower. but Still need to push over 1321.25 to try to get upside going

Jan 26, 2012 12:01:11 PM EST
mike: if this push lower should take out the low and not quickly reverse they will try for 1316-1315. It should stay under pressure as long as they stay under 1321 .25 area

Jan 26, 2012 12:14:10 PM EST
mike: a double bottom attempt due to a small pop on the NQ. If they break here the overnight low was that 1315.75, and that adds to the cluster at the 1316-1315 area. That is the short-term transition area and if broken then a top at the 1329.75 resistance level should be confirmed. If they rally off of that area then the market would have a chance to rally back-1321.25 area would be good resistance then on a bounce

Jan 26, 2012 12:18:26 PM EST
mike: a bounce off of that support area, if it holds, would have good resistance at 1318.50-1319 .00 area

Jan 26, 2012 12:40:52 PM EST
mike: a bounce off of that key support, that's a spot to cover shorts taken from near the early high at resistance, or even the 1321 area. We could have a low and at that area. So far the bounce has stopped one tick below the 1318.50-1319 new resistance. a turn down and get them to test the low. But if that is pushed through, then a rally up to 1320 .50 area or higher likely

Jan 26, 2012 12:51:14 PM EST
mike: they backed off from updating resistance but the NQ drop didn't effect the ES much so we could get a rally from above the 1316- 1315 major area. It will have trouble holding at higher levels however. I need a quick break, will be back in about 10-15 minutes,

Jan 26, 2012 1:10:11 PM EST
mike: a decent bounce but it's failing under 1321, a pullback needs to hold 1318.50 at the lowest or this bounce can be over

Jan 26, 2012 1:29:11 PM EST
mike: they're at a crossroad here. 1318.50 is holding, but the bounce failed to clear 1321. 25 resistance. Need to break this range to get another move going. a break of 1318.50 could get the ball rolling to test 1316-1315 again

Jan 26, 2012 1:31:27 PM EST
mike: the bounce failed just under 1321 and this pullback could go down to test 1316-1315 key area if there is not a good bounce off of the 1318 level here and take out 1319.50 on the upside

Jan 26, 2012 1:39:32 PM EST
mike: if you are short from around the 1329.75 reversal at resistance or the 1320-21 area that was resistance, be sure to lock in some profit down here and trail stop on a remainder. 1321 shouldn't be broken now

Jan 26, 2012 1:41:39 PM EST
mike: 1315 .00 lo so far, don't expect a bounce to stick, it should set up another shorting opportunity if that occurs

Jan 26, 2012 1:45:07 PM EST
mike: things have definitely changed, at least for today. a bounce from 1314.25, but as soon as it stalls out the market should head back down again. Watch the 1318 area for resistance

Jan 26, 2012 1:49:30 PM EST
mike: there was a big tick extreme at the low, this could push a bit higher, 1317.50-1318.50 should be the maximum on this bounce however, then another pullback

Jan 26, 2012 2:15:10 PM EST
mike: the bounce failed just under 1317 and a small pullback just held the 1315 area again. This needs to rally up to around 1318 and not stall out, but instead get over that with some oomph and then hold on a pullback. That's the only way I can see to dig out of this hole. I am trusting the 1329.75 resistance as a trading top though. 1320.50-1321.25 area is the key resistance if they can get over 1318

Jan 26, 2012 2:21:23 PM EST
mike: 1311.75 is the next support area and we could see that the way this is acting

Jan 26, 2012 2:25:14 PM EST
mike: 1311.75 just messed so far, 1314.75 as resistance area on a bounce

Jan 26, 2012 2:31:32 PM EST
mike: it's been a trend down move after the earlier ally up to 1329.75 resistance. The bounces have been very lethargic, no power behind them, and just the opposite of what we have been getting on rally days. this bounce up to 1314.50 is one of the strongest moves up so far. They will need to get over 1314.75 and hold that level to take some of the pressure off and possibly get the market out of trend down mode

Jan 26, 2012 2:42:03 PM EST
mike: the bounce got to 1315 and promptly dropped 2 points pretty fast at 1313. 10 down day continues unless 1315 is exceeded and then held to make a transition back up

Jan 26, 2012 2:53:46 PM EST
mike: a small bubble bottom is in place, the ES tested 1315. A pullback needs to stay over 1313.50 in order to keep double bottom in place

Jan 26, 2012 3:01:22 PM EST
mike: just stay with selling bounces. The NQ would need to get back over 2452 and hold that on a pullback in the ES would need to get back over 1315.50-1316.00 area. Otherwise this will stay in trend down mode until the last 30 minutes at the least

Jan 26, 2012 3:15:21 PM EST
mike: looks like some short covering off the low. 1315.50-1316.00 on the ES and the 2452 area on the NQ should be the key resistance and of day.

Jan 26, 2012 3:35:37 PM EST
mike: so far the low is just one tick under the 1309.50 support. The 1308 area would be next support. 1305.50 area would be next if broken. Should be some resistance around 1311.50-1312 at the highest that this is going to stay trend down and to close. The high was made about 30 minutes into trading, the low should be in with 30 minutes left in stock trading. Gap days that are trend days often have that characteristic.

Jan 26, 2012 3:35:48 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day!

Jan 26, 2012 3:40:34 PM EST
mike:  http://www.tradestalker.com/finding-support-and-resistance.htm if you want to learn how I go about getting support and resistance each night

Tuesday- January 24, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 24, 2012 9:31:47 AM EST
mike: this could be a small gap down open, 1305.25 is yesterday's low and getting there would fill the gap on the daily chart. I have almost no interest in buying this market up here at this time the way my indicators look. staying with shorts on bounces. Still in the swing trade with the 1300.50 area for a target. Put options are still cheap with the VIX so low. Tomorrow is a weird Fed day and I expect that will mark a top if we don't already have one in place at 1318 (as I suspect is it is a short-term top)

Jan 24, 2012 9:41:57 AM EST
mike: 1300.50 area could be reached if they stay under 1303 and that could give a bounce but would need to see a reversal. Resistance is at 1305.25 area.

Jan 24, 2012 9:50:21 AM EST
mike: 1303.50 is pivotal early here, if that is held then 1305.25 could be seen on this bounce

Jan 24, 2012 9:52:09 AM EST
mike: that 1304.50-1305.25 it is good early resistance, it needs clear and held on a pullback to avoid a better drop

Jan 24, 2012 10:00:45 AM EST
mike: 1304.50-1305.25 area was rejected and should see a new low in 1303 not held

Jan 24, 2012 10:03:17 AM EST
mike: 1303 was instantly reversed. For now there's no damage done unless that is broken

Jan 24, 2012 10:05:34 AM EST
mike: 1307.50-1308.00 should be as far as a bounce goes before another turn down. Need to hold over 1304.50 area to keep this uptrend

Jan 24, 2012 10:13:05 AM EST
mike: 1304.50 held so far so there it is a chance to get to 1307.50-1308 area before turning back down. 1304.50 area is key now if tested

Jan 24, 2012 10:22:23 AM EST
mike: we should get a drop from up here, especially if one more pop up to 1307.50-1308 and then it turned out. some trouble especially if no bounce from 1305-1304.50

Jan 24, 2012 10:27:28 AM EST
mike: stall out and now 1304.75 should be seen at the least

Jan 24, 2012 10:37:46 AM EST
mike: 1304.50 held and gave a bounce, that 1304.50 level is key support now. Should be a pivotal area this morning. 1307.50-1308.25 is resistance. If that's pushed through instead of being reversed then 1310.50 could be seen on this bounce

Jan 24, 2012 10:46:55 AM EST
mike: we are at the 1308.25 resistance and a pullback needs to bounce off of 1306.50 to avoid a reversal to the downside. If that level holds then 1310.50 area could be seen on this led up

Jan 24, 2012 10:51:28 AM EST
mike: should pull back here. also keep an eye on the NQ which is stronger this morning. It needs to stay over 2431 on a pullback- along with 1306.50 on the ES- to avoid topping

Jan 24, 2012 11:02:01 AM EST
mike: should have a high place. The ES would need to bounce off of 1306.50 in the same way it did off of 1304.50 to avoid a reversal and keep the upside intact for one more push higher

Jan 24, 2012 11:11:03 AM EST
mike: ES touched 1306.50 and the NQ reacted off of its 2431 level. Those are pivotal to keep the upside going. they should top out in here but if they make a run and hold 1308.25, then the 1310.50 is possible \ \

Jan 24, 2012 11:16:48 AM EST
mike: one more push up to 1310.50-1311 area it is still possible, then should see a pullback. The 1308-1307.50 area should hold on a pullback to keep the upside going. 1306.50 is pivotal area on a deeper pullback. I'll be back in about 15 minutes

Jan 24, 2012 11:35:27 AM EST
mike: the market has been in a steady uptrend, holding that the dynamic support to the tick on the 2 point pullbacks. It's acting tired and needs to stay over 1309 or the trends could be rolling over. Otherwise it's still in bullish mode

Jan 24, 2012 11:38:44 AM EST
mike: a bounce will be sold into now, that should be a top for a decent pullback, 1306.50 still a key area and could be tested

Jan 24, 2012 11:47:00 AM EST
mike: the ES broke a channel on most all intraday time frames.1308 as new transition area if broken. 1309-1309.50 area should be resistance on a bounce attempt if going to make a top up here

Jan 24, 2012 12:06:58 PM EST
mike: need to stay over 1308 to keep the upside going to 1309.50 area, where there should be some resistance

Jan 24, 2012 12:13:15 PM EST
mike: the market is moving like it's swimming in bubblegum up here. 1308.50 meets to hold or they can go down to tests 1306.50

Jan 24, 2012 12:26:42 PM EST
mike: very slow and thin conditions. we have a top in place at the 1309.25-1309.75 zone. pullback needs to hold at 1306.75 to avoid a deeper pullback, possibly back to 1304.50 area if there is no quick snap back from 1306.75 area

Jan 24, 2012 12:45:16 PM EST
mike: we have been in a 2.50 point range for more than an hour. The 1309-1309.50 area has been sold several times and is a lid on this rally, if they go under 1308 and don't turn right back up instantly then we are going to test 1306.50 and that should be key to hold on the market gets itself into some trouble

Jan 24, 2012 12:54:31 PM EST
mike: turned right back up from 1307.50, the bottom of this little range we are stuck in. It's looking like they can run up to the 1310.50-1311.00 area if a push over 1309 can hold, instead of turning right back down. Tough call in here, this has been for scalping only but we could get a run-up soon on a hold over 1309

Jan 24, 2012 1:04:24 PM EST
mike: a test of the top of the range was rejected, but no damage done as long as the ES can stay over 1308.50. That needs to hold or we go to the bottom of the range

Jan 24, 2012 1:15:25 PM EST
mike: this "action" will be better tomorrow or later today. We have the State of the Union address tonight, and then tomorrow at 12:30 PM the Fed release (used to always be around 2:15 PM) and they are doing some other things for the first time ever. So for now the market is at a standstill. A small position in some put options is not a bad idea. The ES needs to get back over that 1314 area to become strong and not so vulnerable again. This afternoon that NQ has been weaker and could start a move to the downside

Jan 24, 2012 1:20:27 PM EST
mike: a drop to 1306.50 in the cards, would need to see a good bounce from their button it will likely fail

Jan 24, 2012 1:24:05 PM EST
mike: resistance now at 1308.25 area and should be sold if reached. 1309 area shouldn't be exceeded

Jan 24, 2012 1:44:11 PM EST
mike: the ES bounced off the that 1306.50 support from this morning. should be okay if it's not broken. Resistance on the ES at 1307.75 area and around 2427area on the NQ both it taken out

Jan 24, 2012 2:11:15 PM EST
mike: the ES and NQ both took out that resistance and getting a decent bounce. 1309.75 is the top of that "old" range and high for the day and needs to push through if 1308.50 can hold it will have a chance. If not then back to 1307.75 area

Jan 24, 2012 2:19:34 PM EST
mike: 1308.50 held and now they can push towards a new high and test 1310.50-watch the NQ as it needs to get going on the upside from here or will have a failure

Jan 24, 2012 2:25:37 PM EST
mike: 1308 area still a key support. A pop up to 1310.50 still possible. I have to step away for about 10 minutes.

Jan 24, 2012 2:41:08 PM EST
mike: this should be bullish as long as the 1309 area is held now

Jan 24, 2012 2:42:08 PM EST
mike: they could back off from 1310.50-1311 area but that should stay over 1309 if the market is going to stay strong this afternoon

Jan 24, 2012 3:12:21 PM EST
mike: small ranges since around 11:30 AM. Makes it kind of tough to make a call but the NQ looks like it's rolling over. We didn't have the early support at 1304.50 and then 1306.50 was support in the morning and this afternoon's pullback. The 1310.50 resistance was missed by 1 tick. Not a bad day despite the small range. I don't expect much in the last hour. They will be okay as long as 1308 is held

Jan 24, 2012 3:37:39 PM EST
mike: the only index worth scalping is the NQ. But ovoid this otherwise. If 1309.15 is held this could push up to 1311.50 but not sure if that can be pulled off.

Jan 24, 2012 3:41:16 PM EST
mike: Just see this as must hold 1308.25. The NQ could help pull the ES down there

Jan 24, 2012 3:45:31 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day. See you tomorrow morning

Monday- January 23, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 23, 2012 9:21:25 AM EST
mike: we may not get to the 1313-1315 area as they have reached it already pre-open. But if they get back up there then it should set up a good shorting opportunity, for a swing trade, at least for starting to build a position.

Jan 23, 2012 9:36:57 AM EST
mike: trend that doesn't reverse until they break 1309.50 area, but a move to the 1313.50-1315.00 area that stalls or shows rejection could be the start of a decent pullback

Jan 23, 2012 9:38:32 AM EST
mike: that could be a high-1311.50 small support to break

Jan 23, 2012 9:45:23 AM EST
mike: ES in the key area. 1312-1311.50 area will now need to be broken to put a dent in the up trend. If they don't reverse from 1315 then it's possible to go on up to 1318 before backing off

Jan 23, 2012 9:51:03 AM EST
mike: a break back under 1313.50 break this uptrend

Jan 23, 2012 9:54:55 AM EST
mike: the move is almost parabolic and should have a pullback from here, 1318 at the highest. Keep an eye on the NQ for its turn first

Jan 23, 2012 10:03:09 AM EST
mike: 1318 should be some resistance. But market stronger than anticipated. 1316-1315.50 is now trend support that needs to hold on pullback

Jan 23, 2012 10:10:05 AM EST
mike: 1318.00 was touched, now need a break under 1316.25-1315.50 to have a break of this strong uptrend

Jan 23, 2012 10:20:40 AM EST
mike: 1318 area trying to hold us back, 1316.25-1315.50 is a key area for a reversal of the trend up move, it's too parabolic/straight up to not have a decent pullback

Jan 23, 2012 10:29:52 AM EST
mike: the pullback held in the support zone so far, but a high should be in place at 1318.25, a pop up from here should be sold into. If they take out the high then 1320.50-1322.00 area is the next resistance and that shouldn't be exceeded today

Jan 23, 2012 10:38:54 AM EST
mike: 1315.50 dynamic support the pullback low so far. If no gusto on a bounce, then we could have a sharper break to the downside. 1314.25-1313.50 area would be next dynamic support if 1315.50 is broken

Jan 23, 2012 11:03:30 AM EST
mike: 1314.25-1313.50 dynamic support area held on the pullback. Could see one more little push higher as long as that holds but it shouldn't get over 1316.25 and hold over that level if going to continue to inch lower. If that is cleared/held then a test of the high possible but it should stick.

Jan 23, 2012 11:10:56 AM EST
mike: a top should be in at 1318.25 now and 1315.50 area the Key resistance if they bounce. 1309.50 key support area to breakthrough

Jan 23, 2012 11:18:32 AM EST
mike: 1314.25-1315.25 area should not be exceeded on a bounce. The market appears to be in trouble for the first time in quite a while. If there is a pullback of more than 8 points it will break bigger picture symmetry.that 1309.75-1309.00 area is a very key spot now and a broken then the market will have more proof of a high in place at least short-term

Jan 23, 2012 11:38:35 AM EST
mike: we should have one more push from 1313. 25 to tests 1309.50 area. A break of that will put a big Dent in the bullish trend

Jan 23, 2012 11:45:18 AM EST
mike: if you have been short consider taking some profit here at 1309 and trail a stop on the rest.

Jan 23, 2012 11:47:17 AM EST
mike: 1313.25-1314.25 is a pivotal resistance if there is a decent bounce from down here. A move down to 1308-1307.50 would need to be quickly reversed back up to avoid more damage but a top should be in place

Jan 23, 2012 12:00:22 PM EST
mike: they sold off to test the initial support and a bounce needs to get over 1311.75-1312.25 to break the downside trend. If they take out that support than 1304.50 area would be the next key area below. the market has been able to come back with a rally all month so far. However, Short side still the better odds on bounces has a high should be in place at the 1318 resistance. If in a swing trade per this morning's comment that is the stop for now.

Jan 23, 2012 12:01:43 PM EST
mike: market is in trouble if it stays under 1309.50, late buyers and profit takers trapped above. I will be back in about 15 minutes

Jan 23, 2012 12:19:45 PM EST
mike: the market is trying to get its footing, a bounce should fail at 1308 area to keep this strongly bearish

Jan 23, 2012 12:46:16 PM EST
mike: on a bigger picture basis, the pattern on the daily chart (close only chart) was bearish coming into today, as it flattened out- and with the narrow ranges at a high showing stalling action. The sentiment was overly bullish, similar to the high last July. The VIX also has plunged to the low 18s, and with it turning up today I could get additional sell signals. In addition the short-term internal gauges where at overbought extremes. The 1315 was a key resistance, but there was only a small pullback before one last push up to the 1318 resistance where it reversed a parabolic move up.. there was a 13 point pullback/drop and that broke the pullback symmetry from the last few weeks. so it looks like a top of some sort should be in place. This bounce off of the 1305.25 level barely kept the ES from having an "outside day" with a higher high than on Friday. It needs to break 1304.75 to have an outside day. The ES is now toying with 1308 and should fail here if there's going to be a break lower to take out 1304.75. A push over 1308.25 could get this to test 1309.50 which is looking like it might be a pivotal area.

Jan 23, 2012 1:05:28 PM EST
mike: we could see a test of the low or a bit lower to 1304.50 area, but only if 1307 is broken. The resistance I'm looking at is at 1309.50, which was prior support. If they get through that area then 1311.50 area would be the next resistance to keep this still in bearish mode

Jan 23, 2012 1:29:32 PM EST
mike: the low was made just after noon, a countertrend bounce often occurs. things have slowed down but the move up failed just under 1309 50 so far. If still should be okay for now as long as 1307.50 area is held, and a test of 1311.50 is possible. If it is broken then we could test the 1304.50 area.

Jan 23, 2012 1:49:02 PM EST
mike: this can continue to creep higher as long as 1308.75 is not broken. If they break that then this move could be over

Jan 23, 2012 2:12:35 PM EST
mike: 1309 held in the ES made it to 1311.00 so far in that might be it the way this is acting up here so careful on the long side

Jan 23, 2012 2:13:29 PM EST
mike: especially if 1309.50 broken and not quickly reversed back up. The NQ has good resistance around 2435 where it just topped

Jan 23, 2012 2:16:16 PM EST
mike: 1309.50-1309.00 should be a pivotal area, if broken then this uptrend begins to break down

Jan 23, 2012 2:41:40 PM EST
mike: I still feel that the 1318 should be a top of some sort, however so far the market is trying to do as it has all month and make a lunch time low (or an early low, both have happened) and then put together a good rally. the 1311.50 it is the dynamic resistance and the ES has been up here at 1311 three times and backed off. but we still need to break 1309 pivotal area- it has held on two pullbacks. 1309 still needs to break to give a sign of weakness now

Jan 23, 2012 2:51:09 PM EST
mike: 1309-1309.50 area should be resistance now, shouldn't be broken by months to keep this rolling over

Jan 23, 2012 2:59:00 PM EST
mike: the market certainly caught a bid coming off of 1308. It looks like a pullback that holds around 1309 would be a buy. 1308.00-1307.50 support

Jan 23, 2012 3:03:48 PM EST
mike: 1310 should hold to keep this going on the upside now

Jan 23, 2012 3:06:01 PM EST
mike: should be selling around 1312.50-1313.25 area and then another pullback

Jan 23, 2012 3:07:57 PM EST
mike: 1311 area needs to hold or a rally that follows will fail

Jan 23, 2012 3:11:07 PM EST
mike: a small bounce from 1311 so far and that must hold. 1312.50 was rejected and that 1312.50-1313.25 zone is still a key resistance-shouldn't be cleared and held if we have a top in place

Jan 23, 2012 3:21:26 PM EST
mike: 1311.00 was held in so far they reached 1313.00. that could be a high for this bounce. The 1311.00-1310.50is key to say over on the next pullback

Jan 23, 2012 3:34:23 PM EST
mike: so far support held and so did the 1312.50-1313.25 resistance area. last 30 minutes and they need to stay over 1311.50 to avoid a late drop

Jan 23, 2012 3:38:12 PM EST
mike: if they get a squeeze over 1313.25, the next resistance is at 1315.50-1316.25. That is a minor area. I still think that 1313.25 level shouldn't be exceeded/held if there is a top in at the 1318 resistance area. Have a good rest of the day. I'll see you there tomorrow close to 9:45 AM

Thursday- January 19, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 19, 2012 9:28:45 AM EST
mike: I will be away from this PC for the first 30 minutes. No change from the nightly update, so use that as the early trading plan. 1304.25-1303.50 area is first support area

Jan 19, 2012 9:42:08 AM EST
mike: they failed just under 1308.50-1309.25 resistance and that was also the pre-open high area. It should be hard to get through. A test of 1304 area should occur this morning

Jan 19, 2012 9:44:05 AM EST
mike: the NQ needs to push under 2430 and hold, not quickly reverse, to put pressure on. I'll be back in about 15 minutes or so

Jan 19, 2012 10:05:00 AM EST
mike: a rejection of the 1308.50-1309.25 resistance area on the Philly Fed release and now that gap filled on the daily chart at 1304.25. Staying under 1305.50-1306.00 should keep pressure on

Jan 19, 2012 10:13:11 AM EST
mike: 1305.50-1306.25 area should be good resistance on a bounce if the market is going to go lower. If that's pushed through instead then a move up to test the high is possible

Jan 19, 2012 10:24:38 AM EST
mike: that resistance at 1308.50-1309.25 area is still valid. If going to pull back again then that should be rejected-actually should turn down from this 1307 if going lower. pullback should hold 1305.50 area to avoid another test of low

Jan 19, 2012 10:43:04 AM EST
mike: The 1306 -1305.50 area should be pivotal and if broken and not quickly turned back up then the move could be rolling over. no damage done yet unless that happens

Jan 19, 2012 10:54:32 AM EST
mike: The 1312.50-1315.00 has a band of resistance that should be very strong and probably a top if reached. Should pull back from up here, but no damage done unless 1308-1307.50 area is broken

Jan 19, 2012 10:59:45 AM EST
mike: should have a high in place for now. the NQ needs to hold around 2436 to avoid some trouble over there

Jan 19, 2012 11:08:11 AM EST
mike: both 1307.50 and 2436 level on the NQ were held so far, so no damage done-- yet. Upside should be limited from here. Need to get over 1309 and hold over that to have a shot at going for that major resistance up at 1312.50-1315.00 area- if they do get up there, then that will be the first good odds place to short the market.

Jan 19, 2012 11:25:05 AM EST
mike: a small double top at 1309.75. just broken- need to stay over 1308.50 to push through towards 1312.50-1315.00 major area. up here. Couldn't see some pullback, but Market is bullish above 1307.50 area for now

Jan 19, 2012 11:41:19 AM EST
mike: they aren't too far from going to the 1312.50 level which is the bottom of the 1312.50-1315.00 resistance area above. That might not be seen for a while in 1309.50 isn't held. the market is acting a bit tentative up here but can grind higher only if 1309.50 area is defended.

Jan 19, 2012 11:51:14 AM EST
mike: the new highs should be sold but as long as the pullback is a small one of just 1.50-2.00 points that trend can continue. 1309.50 it is still key to stay over

Jan 19, 2012 11:57:41 AM EST
mike: keep and eye on the NQ. It needs to stay over 2438.50 on a pullback on the market will be changing its character on that index, and it has been the leader on the way up. Also expect the pops to be sold especially a token hire high. I will be back in about 15 minutes

Jan 19, 2012 12:23:16 PM EST
mike: toppy action at the moment. The tests of the high are being rejected, upside obviously limited at this time so keep looking to short on the pop-ups and scalp out on the following pullback. if 1309.50 is broken by much and not quickly reversed that things are changing. 2439 area on the NQ needs to hold over there

Jan 19, 2012 12:36:00 PM EST
mike: the pullback quickly reverse up off 1309 and the NQ bounced off of its 2439 support. Even more important now to say over. The Dow cash is now back under 12,600 and needs to be cleared and held also, it's now a resistance. Careful on longs as it looks like the 1212.50-1215.00 area might not be seen today. That would be the ideal shoring area if it was reached in the market stall out

Jan 19, 2012 12:56:55 PM EST
mike: this could be just a lunchtime pullback, and then try for the 1312.50-1315.00 area. Would need to get back over 1309.50-1310 .00 area and then hold on a small pullback.-the 1309 area would be support then

Jan 19, 2012 1:00:09 PM EST
mike: tick extreme giving a small dip from here

Jan 19, 2012 1:10:18 PM EST
mike: that small dip held at 1309 and now back to test the high. If this comes back down to 1309.75 area that should hold if we're on our way to 1312.50-1315 area. I still think that it is in the cards the way this daily chart is looking

Jan 19, 2012 1:45:09 PM EST
mike: sorry I haven't had much to say. The market is not volatile and has been for the most part steadily grinding higher towards the 1312.50-1315.00 area. That could be put on hold if they don't back down and break 1308. The token new high at 1311.50 was sold but still just a shallow pullback. Staying over 1310 keeps a move to that key area in gear.

Jan 19, 2012 2:22:00 PM EST
mike: the market is struggling to avoid "profit-taking" or long covering move from up here. we should get that one last push to the upside if this pullback can stay over 1309 at the worst. if that's broken, then the 1308 area is now a key area to stay over, not break and hold, or it could become a transition zone to a downtrend

Jan 19, 2012 2:38:30 PM EST
mike: I think this pullback has gone a bit too far and that the next bounce is a shorting opportunity. 1310 area should be good resistance. The NQ is pretty much going to lead any move, that should have resistance around 2439

Jan 19, 2012 2:56:10 PM EST
mike: should get a bounce here, but need to get over 1309.50 and hold above that area to avoid another drop, and have a chance for one last move to the upside. that should be a key resistance. If that's pushed through then expect that move, if we get it, to be sold around today's high, or just a bit above that there is a better bounce than expected today

Jan 19, 2012 3:07:51 PM EST
mike: if this is going to be a last hour rally than a pullback from 1309.50-1310 area needs to hold no lower than 1308.50.

Jan 19, 2012 3:19:50 PM EST
mike: the first pullback from 1309.50-1310 resistance held just above the 1308.50 pullback support. That needs to hold in push over 1310 pretty soon here to get one more run up

Jan 19, 2012 3:28:06 PM EST
mike: a decent bounce from just over 1308.50. 1309.50 is now support that needs to hold to keep the rally alive and push through 1311 or at the least touch that area

Jan 19, 2012 3:37:53 PM EST
mike: holding 1309.50 on that pullback, it keeps the bounce alive but this needs some help it get up to the 1312.50-1315.00 big resistance.

Jan 19, 2012 3:38:35 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day.

Wednesday- January 18, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 18, 2012 9:31:13 AM EST
mike: starting a little late this morning. Look for a short around 1293 if reached-should be a sell a bounce market unless that's cleared and held

Jan 18, 2012 9:41:48 AM EST
mike: 1289-needs to get over that area that hold to try to get out of potential trouble

Jan 18, 2012 9:51:05 AM EST
mike: the NQ rallied to tests its initial resistance around 2400 and turned back. Keep an eye on that. Right now the ES needs to stay over 1289.50 to keep its trend and go to 1293 area

Jan 18, 2012 9:56:11 AM EST
mike: they drop to 1292 area it is likely, needs to hold

Jan 18, 2012 10:02:37 AM EST
mike: 1293area needs to hold on a pullback to keep this trend going

Jan 18, 2012 10:04:01 AM EST
mike: the one minute chart set up per the e-book is getting trend guidance most of the way up

Jan 18, 2012 10:06:17 AM EST
mike: should get that countertrend move in the first 20-40 minutes from that high

Jan 18, 2012 10:22:48 AM EST
mike: the little pullback held at 1293.75 and NQ is able to hold over 2400-both of those are now key support morning. Some resistance around 1297 then the key area around 1299 and then an outside chance at 1302

Jan 18, 2012 10:25:59 AM EST
mike: a pullback to 1295.50-1295.00 area will need to hold

Jan 18, 2012 10:33:56 AM EST
mike: this can get to 1299 as long as 1296.50-1295.75 area is held. should see some selling there. That support area should be important support now on a pullback. Trend can break if not held

Jan 18, 2012 10:46:51 AM EST
mike: 1296.25 was a pullback low so far. It will be pullback time soon if much more weakness-or there is no push to a higher high soon. NQ needs to stay over 2406-2405 area and ES over 1295.50

Jan 18, 2012 10:55:39 AM EST
mike: 1295.50 was touched and they turn right up slowly. The NQ also held its support. need to push on through 1299 on this move. But if those are broken then we will have high in place for a while and test the 1294 area

Jan 18, 2012 11:05:37 AM EST
mike: a failed attempt to push up to a higher high is quite possible as the market is struggling as it eyeballs that resistance. Need the ES to push over 1298 and stick to get a squeeze going and try for 1300 or possibly 1302

Jan 18, 2012 11:17:05 AM EST
mike: 25 minutes trading between 1298.50 and 1295.50 and then it should give a move towards 1300 or 1302 if broken on the top side. It doesn't look like it wants to at the moment so a break below 1295.50 shake this up a bit with 1294 for the target/support on the down side

Jan 18, 2012 11:27:27 AM EST
mike: a bounce from that key support here. must hold areas now. it could fail -unless it's a strong move up that doesn't hesitate to push through 1298- this action doesn't look like it wants to do that yet

Jan 18, 2012 11:33:00 AM EST
mike: it has turned into a choppy sideways cigar pattern. need to get over 1297 level and hold to try to get upside going

Jan 18, 2012 11:35:10 AM EST
mike: the NQ has been a better vehicle to trade so far today. It's stronger leading the move higher. 2406 is a key support there

Jan 18, 2012 11:35:37 AM EST
mike: next pop up should set up a short

Jan 18, 2012 11:39:57 AM EST
mike: needs to bounce off of 1294 area to avoid a bigger break. Still a high should be in place for now and a bounce should fail. 1296- 1296.50 area should be sold and going lower.

Jan 18, 2012 11:48:34 AM EST
mike: 1296.25 is the bounce high so far and that should be about as far as a bounce should go if going lower to break the 1294 level. 1294-1293.50 new support to break if the trend is going to turn back down. I'll be back in about 10 minutes

Jan 18, 2012 12:05:14 PM EST
mike: they managed to stay over the 1294 level on the ES and the 2406-2405 on the NQ. A break of those levels should bring on a decent pullback but not unless both are broken.

Jan 18, 2012 12:07:11 PM EST
mike: I will be in and out (mostly out) for the next 45 minutes or so. My apologies. I will do my best to update when possible. Should be back to normal by around 1 PM

Jan 18, 2012 12:21:20 PM EST
mike: 1296 now needs to hold as support or the trend will change

Jan 18, 2012 12:25:00 PM EST
mike: 1302 could be seen now after a shallow pullback

Jan 18, 2012 12:51:54 PM EST
mike: pushed over 1300 and needs to hang in here and stay over 1299.50 it looks it's going to 1302

Jan 18, 2012 12:52:58 PM EST
mike: NQ still leading and it needs to stay over 2315 now-it has been a better trading vehicle today

Jan 18, 2012 1:00:50 PM EST
mike: so far held 1299.75 and that isn't broken in the NQ stays over 2417 area the ES could get to that 1302 area and that should be a key area

Jan 18, 2012 1:10:52 PM EST
mike: there must be a pretty good sellers just above. A pullback needs to stay over 1298.50-1297.50 which is a transition area otherwise the market begins to change

Jan 18, 2012 1:27:21 PM EST
mike: so far it's able to hold over 1298.50 all trends are still up and the NQ should lead this higher if 1302 area is going to be tested today. it's thin and dull but 1302 is still possible as long as support holds. If broken than the 1296.25 area is now support

Jan 18, 2012 1:40:55 PM EST
mike: they missed the 1302.00 level by 3 ticks so far and that could be it for awhile if there is a break under 1298.75

Jan 18, 2012 1:43:34 PM EST
mike: I think a hold over 1300 will be needed to get to 1302. If 1300 is broken and not quickly reversed then they test or break of 1298.75it is possible

Jan 18, 2012 1:55:47 PM EST
mike: a bounce back to 1299.50- 1300.00 area should be sold if that's reached in the move stalls out

Jan 18, 2012 2:13:26 PM EST
mike: that 1301.25 area should be hard to get over and stay over. Should see some selling if reached. Key support now at 1298.25- 1297.50 area and then 1296.25. If they pushed through 1302 and don't reverse/pull back then it could go for 1308 area but doubt that today

Jan 18, 2012 2:31:00 PM EST
mike: there is 1302 and now will need to stay over 1300 area on this pullback to keep the trend up day intact

Jan 18, 2012 2:57:29 PM EST
mike: the pullback off of 1302 turned up from 1299.75 and we got another push higher. If they get back up there to test or slightly break 1302 expect that to be sold. If they drop down to 1299.50 they won't need to turn right backup like they did from 1299.75 or else they drop down to or through 1298 area would be in the cards

Jan 18, 2012 3:19:40 PM EST
mike: could have a high for today in place for 1301.50 area isn't held

Jan 18, 2012 3:33:10 PM EST
mike: 1304.50-1305.50 area should be a top for the move today. but if that is somehow broken then 1308 it is possible but I like a short and that area-tomorrow shouldn't a trend day and a pullback is is coming on a break under 1302

Jan 18, 2012 3:33:30 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day

Friday- January 13, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 13, 2012 9:28:52 AM EST
mike: market indicators pointing to a top in this timeframe. It might be in place already, or could come next Tuesday or Wednesday. In any case market should be sold on bounces today. 1286.50 area is a first good resistance

Jan 13, 2012 9:40:26 AM EST
mike: 1278-1277.50 area is a big support at the ES needs to stay over this morning. 1282.50-1283.25 should be pretty the important resistance area -it's bearish under that

Jan 13, 2012 9:51:41 AM EST
mike: 1277.75 low so far- right at the key support and must hold now or else that dynamics have changed. The bounce to 1282 so far in 1282.50 is the key area on top

Jan 13, 2012 9:57:28 AM EST
mike: Michigan sentiment number a good one. the pullback from resistance needs to stay over 1280

Jan 13, 2012 9:58:46 AM EST
mike: 1280 breaks then 1278 could be tested

Jan 13, 2012 10:05:26 AM EST
mike: sellers are in control under 1281 down to the 1278-1277.50 key area

Jan 13, 2012 10:07:58 AM EST
mike: look for 1276.50 area for a small support under this key zone

Jan 13, 2012 10:13:14 AM EST
mike: the 1279.50 area would need to be cleared and held to try to get out of trouble. if they don't bounce from a test of the 1274.00-1272.50 area in the market is in some trouble today

Jan 13, 2012 10:16:11 AM EST
mike: so far this morning there was a rally off of the 1278 area support then a drop from 1282.50 resistance which was key, and now they are holding under 1278. They need to get over that and hold on a pullback to take some pressure off for a bit or could be going for 1274-1272.50 area

Jan 13, 2012 10:23:59 AM EST
mike: 1278 is now the trend down resistance. Market stays in trouble unless that is cleared and held. if short locking in some profit in the 1274- 1272.50

Jan 13, 2012 10:27:46 AM EST
mike: from support to resistance down to a lower support. Good opportunity this morning. The market is obviously in some trouble so far. Resistance at 1278

Jan 13, 2012 10:32:39 AM EST
mike: I don't know what happened to put that in this chat box. Very odd. bounce failed just under 1278 so far. Need to hold 1275.50 if there's going to be a low in place.

Jan 13, 2012 10:50:04 AM EST
mike: they held at 1275.25 but still need to get over 1278 and hold. 1275 is key support for a pullback to hold or else low not in

Jan 13, 2012 11:07:02 AM EST
mike: should see some pullback in the 1282 area is tested again. The 1278-1277.50 is a transition area on the upside now and is key support again on a pullback

Jan 13, 2012 11:12:02 AM EST
mike: a drop down to test 1279.25 area possible here, need a bounce from there or this uptrend could break and take out 1278 in the process

Jan 13, 2012 11:19:50 AM EST
mike: 1279.25 held so far but if broken then we should drop to test the transition area just below 1278 -this keeps an uptrend unless it breaks. Also keep an eye on the NQ. it has a better uptrend. That will have support that's key around 2357

Jan 13, 2012 11:31:05 AM EST
mike: this pattern looks similar to yesterday rally off of its low. It started a lot sooner though. Right now the trend stays upup

Jan 13, 2012 11:31:37 AM EST
mike: unless 1280 is broken

Jan 13, 2012 11:40:02 AM EST
mike: the 1282-1282.75 area should be good resistance. If 1280 breaks now, then it should shake up the market some and give us volatility

Jan 13, 2012 11:49:08 AM EST
mike: I'll be back in about 15 minutes

Jan 13, 2012 12:01:16 PM EST
mike: top should be in.

Jan 13, 2012 12:14:00 PM EST
mike: this stays under pressure unless 1280.58 cleared and held

Jan 13, 2012 12:59:29 PM EST
mike: technical difficulties

Jan 13, 2012 1:00:42 PM EST
mike: with you asap

Jan 13, 2012 1:05:55 PM EST
mike: bounce failed at 1279.50 and that is a good resistance on a bounce, 1278.50 shouldn't be exceeded and held.

Jan 13, 2012 1:10:32 PM EST
mike: I will be in and out over the next 40 minutes or so. This will stay in a bearish mode unless 1279.50-1280.00 area is cleared and held on a pullback

Jan 13, 2012 1:40:34 PM EST
mike: they are quick to come down after a bounce stalls out. Even if there is an uptrend. Right now it's still the 1279-1280 zone that is key. Right now they need to hold this 1276 area or else a move towards 1274 that happen. If a hold and it's possible to go for 1278 or so

Jan 13, 2012 1:50:28 PM EST
mike: watch for support around 1277.50 on a pullback. If they don't fail at the 1279-1280 area, then they could make a move back to test the high, maybe even go for the 1284 area before turning back. But right now 1277.50 should hold it going higher

Jan 13, 2012 2:01:51 PM EST
mike: 1279 is holding and that must stay over that level to avoid going back to test 1277.50.

Jan 13, 2012 2:18:54 PM EST
mike: market is acting bullish again, was able to hold at 1278.50 and turn it back up. But unless they push through 1280.50-1281.00 here pretty soon this can spill under 1279 again.

Jan 13, 2012 2:27:58 PM EST
mike: 1279.50-1279.00 is a key support in the last 90 minutes . Market stays out of trouble unless that's broken. If the high is taken out we could go to 1284

Jan 13, 2012 2:34:15 PM EST
mike: 1280.50 area now needs to hold on a pullback to keep this steady rise in gear. else a reversal can occur

Jan 13, 2012 2:57:38 PM EST
mike: it has slowed down as we go into a three-day weekend. It would take a break back under the 1280-1279 area to turn this down and go for a test of 1276 area or lower. Holding over 1280 will keep the pressure on the upside with buyers in charge and 1284 still possible

Jan 13, 2012 3:07:50 PM EST
mike: this is the third test of the high at 1282.75. Right now it looks like 1281.50-1281.00 is key on a pullback. they need to say over that on a pullback if going to see 1284 area and not make a triple top which is kind of rare

Jan 13, 2012 3:09:32 PM EST
mike: three should see 1284 the way this is looking, but would be careful up there for a pullback from that area

Jan 13, 2012 3:11:23 PM EST
mike: 1282 is now a pivotal area on a pullback. If this is strong could go to 1286 area. The target has been reached, if you have been on the long side it's a place to lock in profits

Jan 13, 2012 3:21:01 PM EST
mike: the 1280-1279 area is the key support on a drop end of day. the 1284 could turn into a high and 1282.50 isn't held.

Jan 13, 2012 3:21:51 PM EST
mike: have a nice long weekend. We'll be ready to go get em on Tuesday morning

Thursday- January 12, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 12, 2012 9:30:47 AM EST
mike: 1288 keys support 1294 area and resistance

Jan 12, 2012 9:34:35 AM EST
mike: it's a short around 1292.25-1293 .00 if there is some rejection

Jan 12, 2012 9:35:16 AM EST
mike: otherwise it needs to break 1290.75 area to begin to turn down

Jan 12, 2012 9:37:08 AM EST
mike: that zone was rejected-vulnerable under 93

Jan 12, 2012 9:41:45 AM EST
mike: if short covered part at 1288.50 or better and tight stop on rest

Jan 12, 2012 9:43:09 AM EST
mike: 1290 area is the first resistance on a bounce

Jan 12, 2012 9:47:55 AM EST
mike: they could bounce a bit from here at 1287 but it shouldn't stick in there is a bounce

Jan 12, 2012 9:51:18 AM EST
mike: 1288.00 -1288.50 area s pivotal early here

Jan 12, 2012 9:58:27 AM EST
mike: could be a top 1288 not held

Jan 12, 2012 10:04:15 AM EST
mike: market will stay bearish unless 1290 it is exceeded. It will take a break and hold under 1288 to put pressure on to test 1285 area

Jan 12, 2012 10:09:54 AM EST
mike: 1285 reached and now a bounce should fail to get over 1288 in the market is in trouble this morning and going lower

Jan 12, 2012 10:18:37 AM EST
mike: the 1287 fixed support coming into the day is now the key resistance that needs broken/held in order to change from trend down mode. A move just under a move 1282 will be next if 1283.25

Jan 12, 2012 10:23:01 AM EST
mike: 1282 was tested, if they stay under 1285 and could be another drop. the 1281.75-1281.25 area it is a key area that needs to be reversed if touched

Jan 12, 2012 10:34:16 AM EST
mike: this is the time of day that often marks reversal points. They tested 1282.50 two times so that could be an early low or else they continue to trend down mode to 1281.25more lower. Move over 1285needed to take some pressure off

Jan 12, 2012 10:44:43 AM EST
mike: 1284.50-1285.00 will need to be cleared and held to try to turn the trend. If 1281 .25 is broken we can see 1278

Jan 12, 2012 10:48:24 AM EST
mike: 80.75 just match yesterday's low it should be broken and give us and outside day. 1283 .50 minor resistance

Jan 12, 2012 11:06:51 AM EST
mike: they need to stay over 1282 .50 to avoid a test of the low. A move over 1285 that holds-not rejected-gets this turned back up

Jan 12, 2012 11:29:42 AM EST
mike: this is Julie...mike will be back on in about 30-40 minutes. We're sorry for any inconvenience. thanks

Jan 12, 2012 12:28:25 PM EST
mike: the market has been grinding higher since pushing through 1285 especially, 1283.50 is the key support now this afternoon, unless the ES comes down to break 1286.50-1286.00 or lower this move higher should continue

Jan 12, 2012 12:44:05 PM EST
mike: 1288 is a good resistance good resistance

Jan 12, 2012 1:14:55 PM EST
mike: browser problem working on it

Jan 12, 2012 1:26:13 PM EST
mike: okay I should be set okay now, fingers crossed. It looks like this 1288 area needs to hold or were headed back towards 1287.50-1287 or lower

Jan 12, 2012 1:27:14 PM EST
mike: 1289 needs cleared/held to avoid pushing lower

Jan 12, 2012 1:37:05 PM EST
mike: 1288 is holding so far but in this cannot get back over 1289 I think that we get another push lower. If they pop up to 1290 instead look for a short there are also

Jan 12, 2012 1:41:56 PM EST
mike: the NQ made a double top in the ES fell short, the NQ is probably an easier short on a bounce. A bounce back to 1288 on the ES is a short and the market gets that far. We then headed down to 1285-1284 before finding decent support

Jan 12, 2012 1:57:35 PM EST
mike: bounce should fail near here or else there could be another push up towards 1289

Jan 12, 2012 2:02:43 PM EST
mike: a test of 1289.50-1290.00 area that stalls out would set up a good odds short. 1288 needs to hold now to get another push higher

Jan 12, 2012 2:12:07 PM EST
mike: they just missed 1289.50. market topped out for now it looks like, NQ been rejected at a good resistance three times now. bounces are shorting opportunities

Jan 12, 2012 2:16:18 PM EST
mike: holding under1288 will keep pressure on

Jan 12, 2012 2:25:14 PM EST
mike: they might make it back up to test 1289 and that should be pretty good resistance. decent buying just over 1286.50 so that needs to hold on the next drop

Jan 12, 2012 2:41:14 PM EST
mike: the market is acting better then then anticipated. A pullback should come but is okay as long as 1289 .00-1288.50 is held

Jan 12, 2012 2:56:01 PM EST
mike: so far the pullback held 1289.50. The NQ is acting a bit weaker off the high. They shouldn't go through those bounce highs by much, if there is going to be a reversal back down by not being able to get over 1291 and hold that level. That looks like the key level on this bounce. The market hasn't been able to hold over 1291 the past few days. If it's cleared and held then I'll run up towards 1295 would be possible

Jan 12, 2012 3:10:42 PM EST
mike: 1289 support held, but the ES backed off 1291 again and that's still key to clear and hold this afternoon to avoid failure up here again. This would be the fourth try in the last 30 minutes to get to that area so it must do it on this attempt if it's going to avoid reversal

Jan 12, 2012 3:33:06 PM EST
mike: the failure again should be it for the rally

Jan 12, 2012 3:45:05 PM EST
mike: they have built good support at 1290.00-1289.50 and for the rest of the day and markets should be bullish unless that area is broken.

Jan 12, 2012 3:47:35 PM EST
mike: watch that area overnight on Globex if it's not broken in the last 15 minutes which is doubtful. have a good rest of your day

Wednesday- January 11, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 11, 2012 9:29:30 AM EST
mike: just a heads up. I will be gone this afternoon and will not be able to send any messages after 12 noon Eastern time . A doctor's appointment so it's not avoidable. My apologies

Jan 11, 2012 9:33:17 AM EST
mike: support tested and held so far but don't trust too much upside

Jan 11, 2012 9:42:43 AM EST
mike: for now there is a chance to get to 1285 as long as they stay over 1283-1282 .50 the upside is going to fail to hold- likely under yesterday's high

Jan 11, 2012 9:49:42 AM EST
mike: 1285 was reached and they made it to yesterday's close. 1283.50 shouldn't be broken or a high could be in

Jan 11, 2012 9:52:56 AM EST
mike: 1284 .00-1283 .50 area is pivotal. If not quickly reversed a high will be in for a bit

Jan 11, 2012 9:59:51 AM EST
mike: they will have to get over 1284 and hold to try to get out of trouble this morning

Jan 11, 2012 10:04:37 AM EST
mike: 1280.50 is a decent support but if broken-or stay under 1283 then 1278 could be in the cards. 1283 Resistance

Jan 11, 2012 10:11:02 AM EST
mike: they need to get over 1283 with some gusto and then hold 1282 .50-1282 .00 area on a small pullback to try to get upside traction

Jan 11, 2012 10:15:53 AM EST
mike: 1283 area is pivotal this morning.

Jan 11, 2012 10:29:22 AM EST
mike: 1283 should hold on a pullback now to avoid rolling over. a move to 1286-1287 should happen if the market is still in bullish mode and not ready to roll over yet

Jan 11, 2012 10:38:05 AM EST
mike: they pulled back to 1283.50 and should try to test the 1286-1287 area here soon. need to hold 1283.50-1283.00

Jan 11, 2012 10:41:14 AM EST
mike: 1287 .00 high so far, 1285 now needs to hold

Jan 11, 2012 10:59:35 AM EST
mike: selling came in at 1286.50-1287.00, the target/resistance on the run-up. 1283.50-1283.00 area is still pivotal. Need a hold over that area to avoid drop possibly to test or break the low. 1285 area resistance now

Jan 11, 2012 11:12:51 AM EST
mike: we could see a short cover bounce from 82 but will need to get back over 1283.50, and especially 1285 to avoid more downside

Jan 11, 2012 11:29:02 AM EST
mike: 1282 was a support area coming into the day. It held on the first decent pullback from the high. If that is broken then the 1278 area could be seen before another good bounce attempt occurs. need to get over 1284.50 and hold that on a dip to get upside going. And avoid that possibility.

Jan 11, 2012 11:33:44 AM EST
mike: a quick drop to 1282.25 was quickly reversed back up. Consider that 1282 as key support.

Jan 11, 2012 11:37:40 AM EST
mike: I will be away for about 15 minutes. I will be able to update until around 12:20 PM, then I will be gone for the rest of the day. A doctor's appointment, so I can't procrastinate and blow this appointment off. ;-) If all goes good I might be back by 3 PM. If so I will let you know.

Jan 11, 2012 11:54:05 AM EST
mike: 1284 area needs to hold to keep this choppy up trend moving here

Jan 11, 2012 12:04:12 PM EST
mike: 1284.00 was bid on 2 tests, that needs to hold to keep choppy uptrend from failing

Jan 11, 2012 12:06:49 PM EST
mike: that was quick, as the ES having trouble just under 1286. bounces under 1286 are shorting opportunities now

Jan 11, 2012 12:28:01 PM EST
mike: 1286 was sold but may not drop far. Dips continue to find buyers. This should be safe as long as the ES doesn't drop down through the 1283-1282 area. I need to be going for now. If possible I will have an update close to 3 PM if I am home by then. Have a good day

Jan 11, 2012 2:57:27 PM EST
mike: I'm only here for a few minutes but it doesn't look like I miss too much. our old friend 1288 was reached and rejected. a choppy 4 point drop to 1284 was bought. 1286 is right in the middle here. This needs to stay over 1285.50 to get a push higher but doubt that it will stick over 1287.50

Jan 11, 2012 2:59:27 PM EST
mike: if they take out 1285.50 then 1284 should be a magnet and right down to 1282 if no turn up shows itself around 1284

Jan 11, 2012 3:13:21 PM EST
mike: any trade should be a scalp the way this is acting. or just take a pass on trading this the rest of the day. The key areas are 1288 for resistance and 1284 for support. they would have to punch up through 1287.50-1288.00 and hold that area to get something going on the upside. otherwise can see a pullback from up here, would need a break and hold under 1285.50 to help confirm.

Jan 11, 2012 3:13:38 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day

Tuesday- January 10, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 10, 2012 9:28:11 AM EST
mike: a breakout. Should drop back some early unless 1290 is clear/holds

Jan 10, 2012 9:33:44 AM EST
mike: 1288 will need to hold in the early going now on there will be a little push lower

Jan 10, 2012 9:41:06 AM EST
mike: a high should be in for a bit-especially if 1288 is broken. next bounce will be sold. 1286 area a minor support

Jan 10, 2012 9:45:56 AM EST
mike: 1288.50-1289.00 resistance now. 1256 area support

Jan 10, 2012 9:54:27 AM EST
mike: that should be a bounce high at 1289.25-otherwise if that is broken then

Jan 10, 2012 10:00:30 AM EST
mike: 1288 was one of my numbers for today and that looks to be pivotal early. They will need to hold over that for 5-10 minutes to have a chance to go for 1292 area

Jan 10, 2012 10:07:37 AM EST
mike: 1292.00-1292.50 area is where a high could be made-or else they could run up to 1296 possible. 1289.50 is a key support on a pullback nowwe

Jan 10, 2012 10:19:43 AM EST
mike: they rejected the 1292 resistance on the first test, now need to stay over 1290.50-1290.00-1289.50 -at the worst to have a chance to test or break through. If they don't reverse than 1296 to be in the cards

Jan 10, 2012 10:24:37 AM EST
mike: a top should be in at 1292 resistance for now. 1288.00-1287.50 prior resistance is now the important support to avoid a reversal / and make 1292 a minor top up here

Jan 10, 2012 10:30:38 AM EST
mike: need to push it over 1290.50 hold that level. still needs to be the support around 1288

Jan 10, 2012 10:37:07 AM EST
mike: need to hold 1290.50-1290.00 to keep this move going

Jan 10, 2012 10:48:53 AM EST
mike: buyers had been backing off and hitting the exit when this gets close to a high, 1291.50-1292.00 so far, and then buying them back on pullback. So this needs to get over that zone and not quickly turn back down to change this psyche

Jan 10, 2012 10:54:09 AM EST
mike: market is vulnerable under the 1291.50-1292.00 area. Would need a move over resistance and then a hold over 1291 on a pullback to get more out of the up side. The market will need to pullback to digest gains unless that occurs. 1288-1287.50 is a key support

Jan 10, 2012 10:59:27 AM EST
mike: pullback buyers at the last little swing low. 1290.50 should be resistance that's not cleared if going lower

Jan 10, 2012 11:03:42 AM EST
mike: 1288.00-1287.50 should be tested/broken if this stays under 1290 now

Jan 10, 2012 11:06:09 AM EST
mike: 1287.50 is reached-look for resistance around 1289 on a bounce

Jan 10, 2012 11:23:46 AM EST
mike: 1289 was broken and now needs to hold as a minor support. So far the ES hasn't liked it around the 1291.50-1292 .00 area. That will be needed to be pushed through if they bounce here. only if that resistance is clear/held and they try for 1296.it looks like the market is comfortable as long as 1287.50 is held over. That is the pivotal support that the market needs to stay over to keep the breakout intact, and not change the dynamics

Jan 10, 2012 11:42:18 AM EST
mike: topping out unless there is a move over 1291 that can stick, hold the 1290 pullback after broken. That doesn't look to be in the cards anytime soon. Look for a potential bounce from the 1287.50 key area. If they don't bounce from that area or above, then the market could be breaking down a bit and then 1286 area could be tested

Jan 10, 2012 12:00:26 PM EST
mike: so for a held over 1288.00- 1287.50 so no damage done yet and the ES stays in this trading range for now. Need to get over 1291 and then hold 1290 on a pullback to push higher. or break 1288.00-1287.50 and then have 1288.50 for a bounce resistance. back in about 15-20 minutes

Jan 10, 2012 12:23:33 PM EST
mike: this should follow the NQ and continue lower. the NQ has been in a breakdown mode since it dropped through 2365.50 area and that's resistance over there

Jan 10, 2012 12:24:54 PM EST
mike: 1288.50 looks like a pivotal resistance now that 1287.50 test

Jan 10, 2012 12:29:27 PM EST
mike: the old 1288 resistance is key now on a bounce. That area is pivotal and should be sold if tested again. If 1284.50 it is broken then the 1282 area is in the cards

Jan 10, 2012 1:01:14 PM EST
mike: when 1287 .50 was broken, that triggers sell stops and selling causing the downside the downside to pick up some steam. That is now resistance on this bounce, 1287.50-1288 area.

Jan 10, 2012 1:10:05 PM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 40 minutes, but will try to send a message if possible. Watch a test of 1287.50-1288.00 area to be sold into - if it's not then we could go back to 1291- but kind of doubt that at the moment. if they drop down to 1284 .50 look for a turn back up-that looks like a good target-and if not reversed from their then look for 1282.50 area for a bounce to occur

Jan 10, 2012 1:36:40 PM EST
mike: a double bottom at 1285 and now a pop up to 1288 resistance reject it on first attempt. 1287-1286.50 in support for a move higher

Jan 10, 2012 1:50:06 PM EST
mike: a 123 type of top at 1288-1287.75. That is still a pivotal area. The 1286.25-1286.00 needs to hold

Jan 10, 2012 2:01:27 PM EST
mike: they held at 1286.50 so far but then failed just under 1288 resistance. Market should soon break this range. If broken than a test of 1284.50 would be possible. But should be turned up quickly there otherwise not good in 1282.50 should then be tested

Jan 10, 2012 2:23:28 PM EST
mike: a pullback should stay over 1287.75-1287.25 area, if this holds over that then wouldn't rule out a move towards 1289.50 area and possibly higher.

Jan 10, 2012 2:34:23 PM EST
mike: 1287.25 was tested and that's as far as a pullback should go if there's going be another push up towards 1289.50. That should be a key area if reached on one more push higher

Jan 10, 2012 2:39:15 PM EST
mike: 1289 might be the max on this first push up

Jan 10, 2012 2:42:19 PM EST
mike: need to see them stay over 1288.00, 1287.50 at the worst if they can spring right back up from there. Otherwise this could begin to deteriorate a bit

Jan 10, 2012 2:49:43 PM EST
mike: 1289.25 bounce high so far. Now need to stay over 1288.50-1288.25 to keep this pushing higher and not reverse or pullback further

Jan 10, 2012 2:59:57 PM EST
mike: 1288.25 was broken so this up move is likely over for a bit, 1287.75 is the important support in here

Jan 10, 2012 3:04:34 PM EST
mike: 1288 it's back to being a pivotal level in the last hour. the ES needs to stay over that level to keep the uptrend from breaking

Jan 10, 2012 3:23:54 PM EST
mike: the rally probably doesn't have a whole lot further to go. We had a top ride the 1292 resistance listed last night, and although a pullback to 1285 was well contained, there was finally a bit of a emotional selling on the break of 1287.50 short after noon. There could be one last run up possible tomorrow to test 1292 or maybe take it out but that will be sold into if that happens. We are close to having a drop back under 1285 either today or tomorrow morning before more upside is possible it's beginning to look like

Jan 10, 2012 3:31:48 PM EST
mike: 1288 will probably be the key area to close over to stay in good shape or close under if the market wants to go lower again.. Have a good rest of your day, I'll see you tomorrow

Monday- January 09, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 9, 2012 9:29:55 AM EST
mike: I'm going to try to not flood you with so many messages today, if I can help myself. So far the ES has been turned back down from just under that the resistance. but a pullback gets bought this morning.

Jan 9, 2012 9:36:12 AM EST
mike: there is some pressure on as long as they stay under 1275-

Jan 9, 2012 9:49:55 AM EST
mike: the first small bounce reached 74.50, then a pullback to one tick above the initial support. it's holding so far -market stays bullish as long as that holds

Jan 9, 2012 9:55:49 AM EST
mike: 1274.50 should be a transition area-needs to be exceeded and held it there is going to be an attempt run up to test or break the key resistance.

Jan 9, 2012 10:10:07 AM EST
mike: initial support still held but now 1274.50 should be a transition zone if broken. bottom of the support zone at the 1271.25 low should/must hold now

Jan 9, 2012 10:18:52 AM EST
mike: look for selling near the key resistance up here if long from near initial support. need to stay over 1275-1274.50

Jan 9, 2012 10:23:28 AM EST
mike: 76.75 rejected again. finally push through 74.50 if not broken on this pullback

Jan 9, 2012 10:27:45 AM EST
mike: 1275.00 needs to hold now. 2352 on the NQ to keep up trend and not roll over

Jan 9, 2012 10:34:17 AM EST
mike: 77.25 was rejected, still good selling at the top of the range. This needs to stay over 1275.50 to avoid a pullback/or at least put a high in place for a bit.

Jan 9, 2012 10:39:54 AM EST
mike: has been staying just over 1275.50 and must back down to the 1274.50 area to see if that can be a support now, it must hold

Jan 9, 2012 10:44:45 AM EST
mike: tested transition area but looks like a better short under 1275.50-1276

Jan 9, 2012 10:45:37 AM EST
mike: also the NQ has a different pattern, a bearish one under 2354, it's about to break its low of the day

Jan 9, 2012 10:53:16 AM EST
mike: bounce to 74.50 and the NQ drop to a new low. The NQ is the easier vehicle to short. Market is bearish as long as ES stays under 1274.50 down to 1271 area and possibly 1268-67 if it gets momentum and more help from the NQ

Jan 9, 2012 11:01:38 AM EST
mike: 1273.50-1274.50 area on the ES and around 2348-2350 area on the NQ is resistance on this bounce

Jan 9, 2012 11:10:23 AM EST
mike: the little bounce only got to 1273.25 and they made a low at 1270.25 so far. If they stay under 1272.00-1272.50 then we could see 1268-1267

Jan 9, 2012 11:25:25 AM EST
mike: 1272 area is resistance on this bounce. It looks like a low is in place for a bit, but if they don't get through 1272 and then take out the low we could still see 1268-1267 before a decent bounce

Jan 9, 2012 11:31:59 AM EST
mike: the ES reached 1272.00 and now a break under 1270.50

Jan 9, 2012 11:33:31 AM EST
mike: is needed if going to test/break the low

Jan 9, 2012 11:45:53 AM EST
mike: held at 1270.50 instead of a breakdown. support now 1270.50 and 2342 on NQ

Jan 9, 2012 11:53:55 AM EST
mike: 1272 is a small transition area, needs defended or down to 1270.50 or more.

Jan 9, 2012 11:59:57 AM EST
mike: back in about 15 minutes or so. NQ needs to get back over 2350 and ES back over 1274 area or market still vulnerable

Jan 9, 2012 12:28:23 PM EST
mike: once again a market has had a bid on the pullbacks. The 1272 has indeed turned into a transition area and as long as that holds buyers are in charge. Upside appears limited however unless/until they move over 1277.50-1278 .00 and not quickly turn back down

Jan 9, 2012 12:41:57 PM EST
mike: 1274.00- 1273.50 should be good support on a pullback if this is going to go higher and not roll over from up here

Jan 9, 2012 1:02:01 PM EST
mike: a pullback to 1273.50 was bought and now we could be on our way to 1276 area or higher

Jan 9, 2012 1:03:35 PM EST
mike: watch 1274.50-1274.00 for a support area now on a pullback-need to hold that

Jan 9, 2012 1:16:07 PM EST
mike: the ES is in a range between 1273.25 and 1275.25. Would need it will take a break under the bottom of that range to turn this down. Also watch 2346 area on the NQ for a key support area

Jan 9, 2012 1:34:02 PM EST
mike: stalling out up here. Still, as long as 1273.75-1273.25 area holds the market stays bullish. The NQ is trying to shape up also. It needs to stay over 2346. If those are broken then things could change. If that's the case then 1272 would be in the cards, but doesn't look to be at the moment

Jan 9, 2012 1:38:37 PM EST
mike: next bounce should fail it would be a short if 1275 was reversed one more time, or a break of 1273.75-1273.25 area soon, then a bounce will fail also

Jan 9, 2012 1:53:55 PM EST
mike: 1275 was not reversed. The way it looks, even if it is buyers should come in and push it higher for as long as the 1273.50 area is held this afternoon the market will be in decent shape. Only if that is broken will things change and open the door for a test of 1267 area

Jan 9, 2012 2:07:36 PM EST
mike: 1277-1278 area could be in the picture. 1275 is a new small transition area and as long as that has held this uptrend stays in force

Jan 9, 2012 2:22:18 PM EST
mike: 1275 was tested and they bounced off of that. It will take a break of 1275 that doesn't turn right back up to put this into a different mode, test the 1273.50 level next for the key support up here at the moment. Still couldn't get to 1277-1278 area if 1275 has held

Jan 9, 2012 2:37:15 PM EST
mike: 1277.25 match the early high. would like to see this stay over 1276 at the lowest to keep this move up in gear and make a higher high

Jan 9, 2012 2:39:09 PM EST
mike: if they can hold that 1276.50-1276.00 area then a better chance to push through 1277.50-1278.00 area. A break of that support could put 1275 back in the picture

Jan 9, 2012 2:56:00 PM EST
mike: they dropped down to test 1275. That is a key area to stay over now it appears. If broken in 1273.50 area would be next. A move back over 1276 needs to stick to get another push higher going. a double top at 1277.25, a pullback is due here

Jan 9, 2012 3:08:49 PM EST
mike: was wrong about the pullback. The market has been acting very bullish with all of the dips catching a bid and turning up. This pullback looks like it needs to hold over 1275-12 74.50 at the worst to keep the up trend and possible test of 1278 area, need a popover 1276.50 for that to happen, or end the day on the move to the 1273.50 or lower

Jan 9, 2012 3:30:21 PM EST
mike: will need to stay over 1275.00-1274.50 to end on a good note. It has held that most of the day- should be important in the last 30 minutes of stock trade

Jan 9, 2012 3:31:47 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day. See you here tomorrow morning, a bit later than usual tomorrow

Thursday- January 05, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 5, 2012 9:32:35 AM EST
mike: as long as they stay under 1268 they are under pressure to take out yesterday's low, at least test it at 1262 .75

Jan 5, 2012 9:43:51 AM EST
mike: first bounce failed in a test of yesterday's low made. a low is only in if the ES gets over 1267 and doesn't quickly reverse back down. 1258 area next support on a hold under 1264 .50 resistance now

Jan 5, 2012 9:52:06 AM EST
mike: if a bounce to around 1263.50 and show some rejection, they should turn down again if we're going lower to test 1258. Otherwise they move to 1265 area before pulling back

Jan 5, 2012 9:54:59 AM EST
mike: resistance that 64.50-65.00 area

Jan 5, 2012 9:58:29 AM EST
mike: bounce high that 1264 .25, should drop to 1262 area at least, or a low is in place

Jan 5, 2012 10:02:33 AM EST
mike: 1261.25 reached so far. they will stay vulnerable under the 1264.50 resistance. That area needs cleared to get the market turned around and avoid potential test of 1258 area

Jan 5, 2012 10:16:54 AM EST
mike: there is some resistance at 1266 but this will stay out of trouble as long as 1263.50 is held now. Good buying came in at 1261 and that should be defended this morning

Jan 5, 2012 10:21:45 AM EST
mike: 1266.00 was rejected but a pullback should hold the 1264-1263 zone to avoid potential trouble and deeper pullback towards a low

Jan 5, 2012 10:25:53 AM EST
mike: 1264.25 was a pullback low. That needs to hold now to keep the uptrend

Jan 5, 2012 10:34:56 AM EST
mike: they should have high in place- especially if the 1264 not held

Jan 5, 2012 10:44:00 AM EST
mike: the NQ is leading the way today. It has failed three times at 2328-2329 area and that should be a top of some sort. The ES has a double top at 1267. The market should be seeing selling on the bounces unless those areas are cleared. If both 1263 on the ES and 2320 on the NQ are broken then pressures should be on for one more push lower.

Jan 5, 2012 11:09:42 AM EST
mike: those levels on the ES and NQ held on the first test, then were broken but quickly turned back up. 1262 area is pivotal this morning now. That should hold to keep the market away from testing 1258 area. Right here there is resistance at 1265.50 that needs clear to get a test of the high or higher. A pullback needs to hold around 1263.75-1263.25 to have a chance to push higher

Jan 5, 2012 11:19:27 AM EST
mike: 1263.75 was tested and held. Moves are pretty slow without conviction that this is currently a long above that 1263.75 area. Just don't get married to either side. Need to get over that 1265 and hold over that to get a squeeze higher

Jan 5, 2012 11:23:24 AM EST
mike: 1264.00 tested and pushed up. look for support now around 1265 area

Jan 5, 2012 11:27:54 AM EST
mike: the push above 1265 caused a squeeze that is strong support now. Should see a pullback to 1267-1266.50 area hold if this is going to make another push higher

Jan 5, 2012 11:31:10 AM EST
mike: resistance at 1269.75 and then the 1271.25-1272.00 zone on this move. A pullback should hold 1267.50

Jan 5, 2012 11:36:18 AM EST
mike: 1269.75 was exceeded by one tick so far. A pullback to around 1268.25 area should hold if this is going to make another push to the upside. Otherwise it can get a bit toppy

Jan 5, 2012 11:45:29 AM EST
mike: pullback to 1268.50 held minor support that now a test of 1270.50 new high. We now need to push it over that 1270.50 in the next few minutes or they coulddrop to test 1268 area again. In any case market stays bullish as long as 1268.25 is held

Jan 5, 2012 11:52:24 AM EST
mike: up to the 1271.25-1272.00 area. I think this should be a key resistance. the 1269.50 area needs to hold to keep the uptrend from aborting

Jan 5, 2012 11:58:24 AM EST
mike: the key resistance was rejected on the first attempt. careful for some selling on a retest. the 1269.50 was broken by one tick and turned up. If that goes, 1267.50-1267.00 area should be pivotal on a pullback. I'll be back in about 20 minutes

Jan 5, 2012 12:26:21 PM EST
mike: the key 1271.25-1272.00 resistance zone was probed and quickly rejected, then we get a shakeout.. They held the 1268.50 area on two small pullbacks and that should be important to stay over. If that is broken then a bounce that follows should be sold. Otherwise no damage done as long as they stay over the 1268.50 area

Jan 5, 2012 12:28:14 PM EST
mike: even though we are at key resistance again, still need to stay with trades on the long side until something changes this trend up type of action

Jan 5, 2012 12:48:37 PM EST
mike: if they are able to push through 1272 then we should see another little run up higher towards 1274 to give us and "outside day" on the charts. They still need to take out the 1269 area to turn down.

Jan 5, 2012 12:49:56 PM EST
mike: look for buyers at 1271 now. They keep putting the squeeze on shorts on the break over important levels

Jan 5, 2012 1:02:02 PM EST
mike: this market is very strong like yesterday after the early going. The upside has been steady since the 1263.75 support being tested this morning. There should be good support now around 1272 .50 on a pullback, that should be important to say over now. At some point soon this will set up for a quick short but it's better to stay with this uptrend until there is a change in market character

Jan 5, 2012 1:07:34 PM EST
mike: they held at 1273 .00. Continue buying pullbacks, the market is moving faster than yesterday so even if for just a scalp trade this uptrend has been ideal to buy on the little pullbacks to near a support area

Jan 5, 2012 1:17:25 PM EST
mike: if they break back under 1273 .50 then they could drop down to test 1272.50-1272 .00 but that area would probably hold on a pullback. Careful with longs up here if that breaks

Jan 5, 2012 1:29:26 PM EST
mike: we should see 1276.75 before this gives a pullback as long as 1274 .25 area is held now

Jan 5, 2012 1:34:00 PM EST
mike: 1276.75 was reached. we could see a pullback towards 1275 area. if 1276 .75 is cleared then we could be headed towards the old 1278-1280 area

Jan 5, 2012 1:43:31 PM EST
mike: 1278.50-1280m will probably be seen the way this has acted

Jan 5, 2012 1:48:43 PM EST
mike: 1276.50-1276.00 needs to hold now to keep this running higher. If that breaks then a decent pullback could occur

Jan 5, 2012 1:56:45 PM EST
mike: so far we have just a very small reaction from just under the 1278.50-1280.25 major resistance.. The 1276.50 if broken could go down to 1274-1272.50 area. That should hold that it's just a rest and this uptrend is going to continue

Jan 5, 2012 2:16:21 PM EST
mike: they could drop down to the 1274.00-1272.50 area and it should hold. otherwise a high is in. 1278.50-1280 .00 is good/major resistance above

Jan 5, 2012 2:19:18 PM EST
mike: a bounce should fail around 1276.50 if going to test the 1274-1272.50 area

Jan 5, 2012 2:38:10 PM EST
mike: the ES was sold down to 1273.50 , which was in the 1274.00-1272.50 support zone. That area should hold if the market is still strong and wants to go higher. For proof of another move up 1275 needs cleared and then held

Jan 5, 2012 2:53:15 PM EST
mike: support held so far so now need a hold over 1275 to get a push to/through the 1278.50-1280.00 area..

Jan 5, 2012 3:00:39 PM EST
mike: we had a pretty good rally all day after the first hour or so when the ES got going from the from the1263.75 support down there. Turned and to trend up move to 1278 just under a key resistance. They have gone sideways just over support for quite a while. Need a move over 1275 to hold more there will be a late day pullback instead of a continuation of the up move. If they get over 1275 and don't turn right back down then there's a chance to run up in tests 1278 resistance again.

Jan 5, 2012 3:17:31 PM EST
mike: the market had a good rally and now needs to digest it before jobs data in the morning. the 1272 .50 still a key support that it is a must hold area. I must leave a little bit early today. Hope you had a good day. I'll see you here tomorrow morning. Have a good rest of the day

Wednesday- January 04, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 4, 2012 9:29:53 AM EST
mike: today we should have a sell the bounce type of day at least down to test 1264 area it appears. There should be pretty good resistance around 1270-1271, yesterday's low area and a gap to fill with this down open. if that area is not reached then it will leave a bad looking chart pattern

Jan 4, 2012 9:35:56 AM EST
mike: they should

Jan 4, 2012 9:37:18 AM EST
mike: had a bounce off of 1266 but fail to take out 1270-1271 area and go down and test 1264 before a better bounce attempt

Jan 4, 2012 9:42:35 AM EST
mike: the NQ is much weaker than the ES and a better short. The ES should go for 1264-should not take up 1270-1271 and hold

Jan 4, 2012 9:56:35 AM EST
mike: a break of 1268 needed to turn this down. Look for resistance /reversal near 70.50 1270.50-1271.25

Jan 4, 2012 10:00:50 AM EST
mike: the 1270-1271 area was sold and is a key resistance to get over, and hold. 1268 need broken to put pressure on

Jan 4, 2012 10:07:49 AM EST
mike: 1266 is key, then should see 1264 area on a break. Need to get over 1268.50 to take some pressure off. 1270-1271 is still strong resistance and sell territory if it's reached again

Jan 4, 2012 10:09:53 AM EST
mike: pressure on under 1268.00

Jan 4, 2012 10:12:27 AM EST
mike: still should see 1264.50-1263.54 they even try to bounce

Jan 4, 2012 10:16:25 AM EST
mike: 1264.50 area reach. small resistance at 1266.50 and 1268 should be a pivotal resistance now on a bounce. Stay with the short side

Jan 4, 2012 10:22:25 AM EST
mike: so far they couldn't even get up to 1266.50. That's the first hurdle to clear on the upside. If that 1264 area is broken and we should be going to test the 1259 1258 area.

Jan 4, 2012 10:27:23 AM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NQ as it helped to bring this off of its low. The ES stopped at 1266.50 and needs to get back over that to take some pressure off.

Jan 4, 2012 10:34:15 AM EST
mike: could get a bounce from that support area but market is in a downtrend under 1266 .50

Jan 4, 2012 10:37:22 AM EST
mike: if the NQ stays under 2306 and the ES under 1265 pressure stays on

Jan 4, 2012 10:43:30 AM EST
mike: 1265 is trend down resistance. Need to be broken with some gusto to avoid another push lower

Jan 4, 2012 10:53:17 AM EST
mike: 1263.75 now support on a pullback, must hold that area. 1266.00-1266.50 resistance area that needs cleared/and held to get out of trouble for a while

Jan 4, 2012 11:07:15 AM EST
mike: the NQ put together a real nice bounce. ES needs to hold over 1266 to keep the bounce from failing

Jan 4, 2012 11:12:58 AM EST
mike: held right at 1266.00. The market will be okay to move towards 1270-1271 area unless that is broken

Jan 4, 2012 11:14:06 AM EST
mike: also keep an eye on the NQ as it is in a good trend as long as 2313 area is held on a pullback

Jan 4, 2012 11:24:27 AM EST
mike: the NQ was the leader on the way up, but this is getting topy. might not see the 1270-1271 area. A short under 1268 at the moment

Jan 4, 2012 11:25:43 AM EST
mike: 1265.25 area is support on a pullback. Keep an eye on the NQ still, it looks like 2316 area is pivotal there

Jan 4, 2012 11:32:48 AM EST
mike: there was good sellers around 1267.50-1267.75 the last time up here, need to stay under that if there is going to be another push down. we need a break of 1266 on the ES to turn the trend down however. Need a break of this tiny range

Jan 4, 2012 11:41:24 AM EST
mike: a pullback needs to hold 1268 if going for 1270-1271 area

Jan 4, 2012 11:55:18 AM EST
mike: stalling out here just under 1270 so far, the NQ is pulling back and needs to stay over 2316. 1267.75 on ES needs to hold a support on a pullback

Jan 4, 2012 12:03:08 PM EST
mike: so far the NQ held at 2316 and the ES stayed over 1268.75. If that's broken a top will probably be in place for a while

Jan 4, 2012 12:13:03 PM EST
mike: that breakout over 1269.50 triggered some buy stops. 1271 reached and now the trend stays up as long as long as 1269.50 is held on a pullback. If they push over 1271 then the 1272.50-1273.00 area could be seen

Jan 4, 2012 12:18:02 PM EST
mike: they could reach that 1272.50-1273.00 area soon. This should be okay as long as 1270.75-1270.25 is held

Jan 4, 2012 12:23:50 PM EST
mike: should be good resistance here. A pullback that takes out 1270 .50 would put a stop to the up trend . 1269 area is key support now

Jan 4, 2012 12:31:13 PM EST
mike: should make an early afternoon high, which often happens when there is a two-sided day.. They may try one more time to test 1272.50-1273.00 area but if 1270.50 broken them things will be changing

Jan 4, 2012 12:41:25 PM EST
mike: 1270.50 is broken and now and thanks to get over 1271.00-1271.50 area it is resistance on a bounce. Must be cleared/held to get to 1272.50 1273.00 area. it's vulnerable under that . I'll be back and about 10 or 15 minutes

Jan 4, 2012 1:01:04 PM EST
mike: they took out 1270.50 but didn't get momentum. Pullbacks have been very well contained in a steady trend up move of low. It's going for 1272.50-1273.00 area and if that isn't reversed then this can continue on towards 1276 and that would be one heck of a rally back. Right now the 1270 level is the key support and broken the trend will change

Jan 4, 2012 1:04:22 PM EST
mike: the 1268 area is going to be seen if they don't turn back up from 1270.25 really fast. a double top at 1272 so far.

Jan 4, 2012 1:12:04 PM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 30-40 minutes or so. At this juncture the market is a short on a bounce that stalls under 1272. if 1272 is taken out look for a reversal back to the downside from the 1272.50-1273.00 area. if they got up there and didn't reverse than a move towards 1276 would be possible but doubtful. I'll try to update during that time if possible

Jan 4, 2012 1:56:43 PM EST
mike: this could push towards the 1276 area, a strong market and pullbacks should be bought still for now

Jan 4, 2012 2:03:53 PM EST
mike: this needs to stay over/bouts from 1271.50 at the lowest it appears to keep the upside going. 1273 is the top side of the 1272.50-1273 .00 area but could be pushed through the way the market has been acting

Jan 4, 2012 2:05:32 PM EST
mike: it's a short under 1273 now, and also the 2327 high on the NQ

Jan 4, 2012 2:06:43 PM EST
mike: my bad for not getting us short at the 72.50-73.00 stall

Jan 4, 2012 2:11:28 PM EST
mike: the NQ, which has been the strongest in this uptrend, is a bit weaker up here. This would need to push on through 1272 and hold to try to go to a new high. a break under 1270.50 would put some pressure on

Jan 4, 2012 2:34:07 PM EST
mike: a pivotal area here, a push over 1273 that sticks can give a rally up to 1276. The 1271.50 area needs to hold now to keep this bullish move going

Jan 4, 2012 2:45:04 PM EST
mike: this is the third time up to 1273. if they are going to break out towards 1276 and it needs to take off from here. 1272 is now the key trends support

Jan 4, 2012 2:47:47 PM EST
mike: a failure, a break of 1272 should put pressure on

Jan 4, 2012 2:52:08 PM EST
mike: stuck between 1272 and 1273, they still need to stay over 1272 to keep the uptrend

Jan 4, 2012 2:53:56 PM EST
mike: they can go for 1276 if they can hold over 1273 up here.

Jan 4, 2012 2:56:05 PM EST
mike: should hold 1273.00 area -if still strong, 1272.50 at the lowest

Jan 4, 2012 3:01:01 PM EST
mike: if 1272.50 is broken and not quickly reversed right back up than they will have a high and place that should be sold against on a bounce

Jan 4, 2012 3:08:50 PM EST
mike: a high should be in place now, at least expect a bounce to be sold.

Jan 4, 2012 3:14:59 PM EST
mike: I need to leave early today. The 1270 level is key to stay over to avoid a reversal from up here. They could bounce but it probably won't hold. would need to get over 1272.50 and hold that level on a pullback

Jan 4, 2012 3:17:36 PM EST
mike: using 73 area still for the important resistance. And shorting against that. Have a good rest of the day

Tuesday- January 03, 2012

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 3, 2012 9:20:45 AM EST
mike: A good start to the year for the Bulls. The 1270.50 area should be good support on the first pullback. Resistance at 1278 and then around the 1282 area but that will take some work, would be a huge day up

Jan 3, 2012 9:30:10 AM EST
mike: A good start to the year for the Bulls. The 1270.50 area should be good support on the first pullback. Resistance at 1278 and then around the 1282 area but that will take some work, would be a huge day up

Jan 3, 2012 9:35:10 AM EST
mike: 76 area should be a decent resistance early

Jan 3, 2012 9:42:58 AM EST
mike: ISM index release at the top of the hour. Should see some kind of pullback before that. 74.50-74.00 area should be the first important support on a pullback.

Jan 3, 2012 9:50:29 AM EST
mike: pullback reached 1274.25 so far, the bounce should fail around 1276 if this is going to go lower from up here

Jan 3, 2012 9:58:48 AM EST
mike: not a very an impressive bounce from support so far, 1276 should be important resistance to get over and hold to avoid a deeper pullback. If it does get over 1276 and hold then the market is still in good shape. ISM index in two minutes

Jan 3, 2012 10:05:43 AM EST
mike: the market will be in good shape as long as that 1274.50-1274.00 support is held this morning. pullbacks should be bought, but look for a reversal possible if 1282 area is reached and rejected

Jan 3, 2012 10:18:07 AM EST
mike: a pullback from here just under 1280 needs to hold around 1277.50-1277.00 now to keep the upside intact.

Jan 3, 2012 10:26:12 AM EST
mike: an early high can be put in a 1278 area is not able to hold.

Jan 3, 2012 10:33:14 AM EST
mike: we should see a move down to test 1277 and if that is not turned right back up then a high should be in place

Jan 3, 2012 10:43:24 AM EST
mike: 1277 tested but a move over 1278.75 now needed to get the up trend back in gear

Jan 3, 2012 10:50:14 AM EST
mike: the bounce failed to get over 1278.75 so the market looks like it could have a decent pullback- as long as it stays under that level

Jan 3, 2012 10:56:04 AM EST
mike: my mistake, as they touched 1277.00 and turned up. The bounce was not impressive, but the bulls should be in charge over 1277-that area must hold

Jan 3, 2012 11:18:59 AM EST
mike: pullback held at 1277.50. good sellers around 1279.50 on the ES and especially just under 2328 on the NQ. need to see this get over 1279.50-1280.00 and not turn back down.

Jan 3, 2012 11:36:28 AM EST
mike: they are holding over 1277, which looks more important now than it did earlier, but the market has good resistance at 1279.50 . It's a small range but need a break out- 1277 .50 bottom of the range now

Jan 3, 2012 11:52:08 AM EST
mike: 1277.00-1277 .50 area is now a resistance on the bounce. Also watch 2323 area on the NQ. If the ES breaks 1274 and doesn't turn right back up then 1272 should be in the cards. I will be back in about 10 or 15 minutes

Jan 3, 2012 12:07:57 PM EST
mike: the ES miss the 1277 resistance by one tick and the NQ turn down from 2323. Those should be an important areas to get over to get out of potential trouble

Jan 3, 2012 12:24:31 PM EST
mike: the last Pop up on the NQ was rejected right at 2323 and then it pulled back to 2318 while the ES went to 1274 .25 to test the early low. A break of that area needed to push towards 1272 or lower

Jan 3, 2012 12:35:03 PM EST
mike: 1272 or lower still in the cards. Keep an eye on the NQ as it has been respecting resistance areas on bounces

Jan 3, 2012 12:41:13 PM EST
mike: we got are 1272 - 1274.25 area is now a good resistance. The NQ has resistance around 2318

Jan 3, 2012 12:47:41 PM EST
mike: we get the Fed minutes at 2 PM Eastern time today. Normally a gap more than 4.50 points on the ES on a Monday is not filled that day. There is quite a ways to go before that occurs. The 1264 level is the gap fill level on a weekly chart and it is now probably an important support if this continues to push lower

Jan 3, 2012 1:00:55 PM EST
mike: 1272 looks pivotal. If that is cleared them move up to 1273.50 should be as far as a bounce goes. Need to hold the 1270 area to avoid deeper pullback towards 1266

Jan 3, 2012 1:17:35 PM EST
mike: pullbacks have been holding 1274.50. This bounce could get the ES to 1273 area.

Jan 3, 2012 1:53:52 PM EST
mike: they are under resistance by just a small amount but this is a move in front of the Fed minutes that will be released in about 10 minutes

Jan 3, 2012 2:03:47 PM EST
mike: 1272.50 is the key level below. As long as that holds then no damage done if broken then the trend reverses to down

Jan 3, 2012 2:22:54 PM EST
mike: they backed off to test small support but unless the ES can push over 1274 and hold this bounce is vulnerable

Jan 3, 2012 2:39:41 PM EST
mike: a pullback should stay over 1274 now otherwise the trend will change. Watch 1276.00- 1276.75 for key resistance

Jan 3, 2012 3:01:48 PM EST
mike: coming into the last hour of trading with the ES touching the top of a resistance area. that might be it for this bounce at 1276 .75. need a break of 1275.50

Jan 3, 2012 3:18:39 PM EST
mike: so far the pullback from the 1276.75 resistance hasn't gone too far. unless they breakdown through 1275 there will be a chance to push through that resistance

Jan 3, 2012 3:23:30 PM EST
mike: we have a gap on the monthly weekly and daily charts to start the year. Once again this market absorbed a decent pullback and rally right back. At the moment it appears that there is more downside potential

Jan 3, 2012 3:36:14 PM EST
mike: let 1274 .50 as a pivotal area. That 1276 .75 resistance will be key end of day. It's bearish under that level

Jan 3, 2012 3:55:34 PM EST
mike: the market is up big for the day but the better setups are coming on the short side. Have a good rest of your day

Wednesday- December 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 28, 2011 9:26:58 AM EST
mike: there should be some resistance at 1262.25-1262.75 area, and if broken then yesterdays double top at 1264.00. The major area is at 1266.00-1266.50. that is all ultra- important. The market is vulnerable up here unless that area is taken out. The key support is at the 1256.00-1255.25 area, should be very important to hold if tested. There is minor support at 1259.00 and that needs to be bought up quickly to a boy a test of that important area just above 1255

Dec 28, 2011 9:35:39 AM EST
mike: so far they stopped just of the above an important support. resistance at 1259.25

Dec 28, 2011 9:41:03 AM EST
mike: 1259.25 was sold on the first tests and that should be pivotal early. We need to get over that and hold, which is doubtful.

Dec 28, 2011 9:43:14 AM EST
mike: if you got in near 59.25 treat this as a quick scalp trade, they moved two points to 57.25 and better to lock and something in the early going

Dec 28, 2011 9:45:27 AM EST
mike: 1259.25 needs to be cleared/held to take some pressure off-but a bounce will likely be sold into. Should have a top in place for a few days

Dec 28, 2011 9:47:06 AM EST
mike: 1257.00-1257.75 area is resistance now on a bounce

Dec 28, 2011 9:48:25 AM EST
mike: 1253.25-1252.50 area is next support but just a minor area

Dec 28, 2011 9:54:37 AM EST
mike: 1253.25 low at support so far. This is still under pressure unless there is a good strong push up through 1257.75

Dec 28, 2011 9:58:14 AM EST
mike: it would need to get over 1256 now to take some pressure off. 1249 area is next support at 1252 is taken out

Dec 28, 2011 9:59:05 AM EST
mike: timeframe that we often see a counter trend move occur

Dec 28, 2011 10:06:39 AM EST
mike: they need toget back over the 1255 area and hold that level. Doubtful it can hold if broken. Good sellers above on bounces

Dec 28, 2011 10:12:44 AM EST
mike: they moved over 1255 two 1255.25 and then came right back down. It's still bearish unless 1255 is exceeded and held

Dec 28, 2011 10:22:13 AM EST
mike: the 1253 area should be resistance on a feeble bounce and should turn from there if going to test the 1249 area. 1246 as a key support to watch if this has one more good push to the downside

Dec 28, 2011 10:31:07 AM EST
mike: at 1249.25 low at/near some support. Still not out of the woods.1252.25 area is now the trend down resistance and also should be a transition area. That needs broken and then held on a pullback to get the market a breather from the selling. The 1246 area should be important to hold or else down to 1242 area to be in the cards

Dec 28, 2011 10:38:35 AM EST
mike: should be a headed for a test the 1246 area as long as they don't get back over 1250 and especially 1252.25 area

Dec 28, 2011 10:56:38 AM EST
mike: we had a three point pounds from 1252.25 to 1255.25 that failed, and now a three-point bounce from 1248.00 up to 1251.00. That failed so far. The ES will need to push through 1251 and then get over 1252.25 and hold that area to get this turned back up.

Dec 28, 2011 11:19:30 AM EST
mike: there is a small double bottom at the 1248.50-1248.00 area now and there are shorts covering/small buying going on just over that area. If it's broken than 1246 should be seen. If that holds and they can get over 1251.50-1252.25 area than the market could get itself out of trouble. They are still vulnerable at the moment if they can't get over over the 1250 level

Dec 28, 2011 11:37:04 AM EST
mike: the 1246 support/target was cut through buy one tick so far. The 1248 area is now resistance on another feeble bounce. 1244 .00-1242.50 area is the next support if they stay under 1246 for very long

Dec 28, 2011 11:50:19 AM EST
mike: a 1244.50 low so far . if there is going to be a decent bounce occur today and not stay in a steady trend down move then the 1244.00-1242.50 area will need to be quickly reversed and then get back over 1246 area. that was prior support. If they break through that area instead then the 1239-1238 area could be in the cards

Dec 28, 2011 11:55:43 AM EST
mike: I think we might have a low and place for a bit by holding over the 1244 area if this can stay over 1246 there is a chance to move up to 1248 or so. if they break under 1244 then the 1238 area could still be in the cards. I will be back in about 15 minutes

Dec 28, 2011 12:12:37 PM EST
mike: they had just a two-point bounce to 1246.50 area and stalled out and now back to the 1244.00-1242.50 support area. that 1244 area is key support needs to hold to avoid a trend down move towards 1238 area. It can get out of trouble 1246.50 is exceeded and then holds on a pullback

Dec 28, 2011 12:13:15 PM EST
mike: I will be away for about 30-45 minutes. My apologies. I will do my best to sneak in an update if possible

Dec 28, 2011 12:45:20 PM EST
mike: the ES got over 1246.50 and then held 1246.25 on a pullback and it is inching it's way higher. They need to break back under 1246 and don't turn right back up to go back to test 1244.00-1242.50 area

Dec 28, 2011 1:06:00 PM EST
mike: look for resistance at 1246.75 on this bounce. It should fail their we are going to go back down and test or take out 1244 area.

Dec 28, 2011 1:12:43 PM EST
mike: there were 2 bounces of 3 points and the early going and then a 3 point bounce from the low to 1247.25. Pressure will be on as long as 1247.25 is not exceeded and then held. If they would push over that then we need to see a move through it that has some gusto and not another stall or reversal after the breakout

Dec 28, 2011 1:37:00 PM EST
mike: a pullback needs to stay over 1247.50 to keep the upside intact. 1252.25 is a key area on this bounce.

Dec 28, 2011 1:51:18 PM EST
mike: 1247.50 held on the pullback and now needs to stay over if there's going to be a chance to push through 1249 and try for a test of 1252 area. If 1247.50 is not held then a bounce that follows should be sold

Dec 28, 2011 2:13:39 PM EST
mike: on a bounce back towards 1247.50-1248.00 it should set up a good shorting opportunity under 1249.

Dec 28, 2011 2:34:08 PM EST
mike: they failed under 1249 and drop down to a higher low at 1245.25 so far. If that is broken then the 1244 low will be in jeopardy. The market stays under pressure unless there is a move over 1249 this afternoon so stay with shorting bounces. The 1238 area could be in the cards yet on this move

Dec 28, 2011 3:08:31 PM EST
mike: the buying has come in just above the 1244 area but bounces are not sticking. as long as a bounce doesn't get over 1247.50 the market will be vulnerable and that 1245 -- 1244 area has a chance of being taken out before the end of the day. if 1247.50 is cleared, then a pullback should hold the 1246.50 area to avoid more downside and possibly run up to tests that 1249 area

Dec 28, 2011 3:21:21 PM EST
mike: the bounce failed at 1247.25 and 1244.00 was tested. Some buying/short covering there but a bounce should fail around the 1246 area if this is going to end the day on a down note

Dec 28, 2011 3:39:55 PM EST
mike: the bounce to 1246 failed and we got a washout to new lows. Could be seen 1238 before this selling is over. Would cover shorts on a test of the low today as that was made right with 30 minutes left in stock trading

Dec 28, 2011 3:40:21 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day

Tuesday- December 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 20, 2011 9:29:39 AM EST
mike: late getting around this morning. It looks like 1215 area needs to hold, and that 1218 .50 hi from yesterday a good resistance.

Dec 20, 2011 9:30:47 AM EST
mike: I will do am Update in about 15 minutes

Dec 20, 2011 9:40:02 AM EST
mike: 1224 .25-1225.00 resistance

Dec 20, 2011 9:43:51 AM EST
mike: 1228 area will be next. 1223 support, then 1219.00-1218 .50 is the key support this morning it needs to hold on a decent pullback

Dec 20, 2011 9:51:02 AM EST
mike: this needs to bounce from above 1223 area or the high may be in place for a while

Dec 20, 2011 10:18:56 AM EST
mike: need a hold over 1226 to get another push higher. we could have a double top otherwise. The 1224.00-1223 .50 area is support.That area needs to hold to keep the uptrend intact

Dec 20, 2011 10:30:13 AM EST
mike: we should see a choppy move up towards 1232 as long as 1224 Area is held

Dec 20, 2011 10:34:23 AM EST
mike: 1226.50-1226 .00 area shouldn't be broken now or things could change.

Dec 20, 2011 10:55:44 AM EST
mike: 1230 is a key barrier to push through. But as long as the 1228.00-1227.50 area is held this will continue towards 1232- the trend up move gets a pullback though if that is broken

Dec 20, 2011 11:02:23 AM EST
mike: 1228 .50 held on the pullback so no damage done just yet and 1232 area is still possible

Dec 20, 2011 11:06:01 AM EST
mike: need to push over 1230 and hold that to get going to 1232

Dec 20, 2011 11:16:57 AM EST
mike: the 1232 target/resistance was missed by just half of a point so far and might be a top - but only if 1230 not held. if 1232 is easily push through, then a move to 1234 would be possible. 1228.50 is now the key support to hold on a pullback to avoid putting in a top otherwise we get another

Dec 20, 2011 11:41:11 AM EST
mike: 1232 level was rejected with a high at 1231.75. 1228 area is now a key support to keep the move from failing. It looks like things have changed as long as they stay under 1230 .50

Dec 20, 2011 11:55:07 AM EST
mike: they held that 1228 .50 and just got a quick test of the high. need to stay over that 1228.50 area to avoid a turn towards 1224. No damage done though unless 1228.50 broken

Dec 20, 2011 12:09:52 PM EST
mike: we should see short covering/buying around this 1228.50. If it doesn't hold up in there then could drop down to 1226 next in possibly 1224 area which is a key support

Dec 20, 2011 12:37:01 PM EST
mike: back in 10 -15 min

Dec 20, 2011 12:58:00 PM EST
mike: 1230.50 needs to hold here to keep the upside intact and not turn the market back down

Dec 20, 2011 1:09:50 PM EST
mike: the ES held right at the 1230 .50 level and made a higher high so far - and stays trend up as long as 1231 .50 area is held

Dec 20, 2011 1:14:43 PM EST
mike: if we are going to stay in a strong trend then the

Dec 20, 2011 1:16:59 PM EST
mike: 1233.00-1232 .50 area needs to hold on this pullback

Dec 20, 2011 1:32:38 PM EST
mike: the market is starting to act a bit tired up here and needs to get back over 1234 and hold to get the upside going again. The pullback could tests 1231.50 or lower otherwise

Dec 20, 2011 2:06:46 PM EST
mike: if this 1231 .50 is held under, there should be some pressure put on the downside towards the 1228 .50 area that was important earlier this morning. To keep the rally going they will need to get back over 1233 and hold

Dec 20, 2011 2:24:06 PM EST
mike: the pullback to 1231.00 was just four points which is about as far as they go in a trend day. The market will say in bullish mode unless that is broken and then they hold under 1231.50. A move over 1233 is needed to get another push higher going

Dec 20, 2011 2:48:19 PM EST
mike: a very strong market obviously. A pullback should hold 1234.00-1233 .50-- at the worst it looks, and if so then the move can continue. The next resistance is at at 1238 area and then up at 1242-1243

Dec 20, 2011 2:53:15 PM EST
mike: that was a quick pullback to the support zone, but it held. if they don't hold 1233 .50 then a move down to 1231 is possible

Dec 20, 2011 3:14:00 PM EST
mike: there are some signs that this move probably won't see much or any follow-through. The market has been acting very well and still is very strong with support at 1234 .00-1233 .50 holding on the pullback. That area should be pivotal on any pullback we get now. if they can hold together up here and make one more push higher to a new high, then we could still see 1238 on this move up but after that it's time for caution on the long side, at least until there is some sort of decent pullback

Dec 20, 2011 3:21:33 PM EST
mike: double top to sell against

Dec 20, 2011 3:26:24 PM EST
mike: if they go back under 1234.00-1233 .50 and don't quickly turn up pressure could be on to test 1231

Dec 20, 2011 3:34:21 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day.

Monday- December 19, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 19, 2011 9:21:22 AM EST
mike: 1215-1214 area needs to hold or else this starts to look weak this morning in the early going

Dec 19, 2011 9:41:05 AM EST
mike: should be pretty good resistance just above 1218-1219

Dec 19, 2011 9:41:53 AM EST
mike: the 1215-1214 area is key to stay above to avoid breaking down

Dec 19, 2011 9:46:26 AM EST
mike: early high should be in place at the 1218-1219 resistance area

Dec 19, 2011 9:53:00 AM EST
mike: the 1215-1214 area is tested, if 1214 broken through -look for a move to the 1212 area. 1216.50 is resistance to clear and hold

Dec 19, 2011 9:58:17 AM EST
mike: 1218.50 resistance level was a small double top and so far they pullback to 1214.25 old resistance now support. If the market is going to be strong today it needs to get in other rally going from right here and stay over the 1214

Dec 19, 2011 10:05:15 AM EST
mike: this will stay bearish now as long as they don't take out 1216.50-that should be a pivotal area

Dec 19, 2011 10:19:54 AM EST
mike: 1216 .00 was rejected on the bounce, market stays under pressure unless 1216.50 has taken out and not quickly turn right back down

Dec 19, 2011 10:22:49 AM EST
mike: needs to hold 1214 or a drop to 1212.50-1212 .00 area should be some support, but if broken and not turn it back up then 1208 area could be in the cards

Dec 19, 2011 10:33:15 AM EST
mike: for now it stays out of trouble holding over the 1214.00-1213.50 area. 1216.50 still is pivotal resistance

Dec 19, 2011 10:41:13 AM EST
mike: 1215.50 it is now support on a pullback and needs to hold to keep from reversing back down. 1218.50 is the resistance that needs to be cleared and held up here or we will have a trading range in the works

Dec 19, 2011 10:50:28 AM EST
mike: no trading range now. If they don't bounce from 1212 then the 1208 area is in the cards. 1215.50 should be solid resistance if they bounce back a far

Dec 19, 2011 11:03:36 AM EST
mike: 1211.50-1212.25 area is resistance on a bounce. 1208 area is still a major support to hold go to 1202 area

Dec 19, 2011 11:09:21 AM EST
mike: there is a small support at 1205.00-1204.50 and if that doesn't hold them down to 1202 area. Bounce resistance at the 1210.50- 1211.50 area

Dec 19, 2011 11:18:28 AM EST
mike: to turn the trend back up for a bounce they need to stay over the 1205.00-1204.50 area and then get over 1208 and hold on a pullback. 1210.50-1211.50 area is resistance

Dec 19, 2011 11:32:59 AM EST
mike: 1208.00-1208.50 stopped the bounce twice so far, 1209.50-1210.50 is pivotal resistance if that is exceeded. the 1205.00-1204.50 area is key support to hold now to avoid going to 1202 area

Dec 19, 2011 11:51:56 AM EST
mike: 1202 was tested and now bounce/trend resistance is at 1204.50-1205.25 area. If exceeded 1208.00-1208.50 is now a key resistance. if a break under 1202 happens then could go down to the 1198 area

Dec 19, 2011 12:06:16 PM EST
mike: I think that the 1202 area might be our low for a bit. A test of 1208 could be in the cards on this bounce- it should be sold if the market is going to stay a weak. a hold at 1204.50 needed to get a push higher

Dec 19, 2011 12:10:04 PM EST
mike: back in about 10-15 minutes

Dec 19, 2011 12:27:17 PM EST
mike: the ES bounced from 1204.25 but hasn't been able to get going over the 1206 area. it looks like It will take a push over that to get shorts covering and try to get to back to the 1208.00-1208 .50 area

Dec 19, 2011 12:30:12 PM EST
mike: a fake out move on the upside yes 1205.25 it is not held

Dec 19, 2011 12:43:47 PM EST
mike: as long as 1206 is not exceeded, there should be a test or break of the 1202 area on this move, and then after getting back down there, we should see a decent up-down-up type of pattern off of the low on this move if this traces out the pattern I'm looking for. There should be buyers around 1202 area again. If no turn there, then 1198-1196 zone could be seen

Dec 19, 2011 1:10:42 PM EST
mike: 1205.50 is support that should be a transition area on the upside, if 1205.50 is broken then the trend turns back down and it puts 1204 and then 1202 as a next support areas and a very thin and quiet market

Dec 19, 2011 1:30:38 PM EST
mike: the market is beginning to get a little bit more active. Bounces are not sticking, but if this can hold 1205 .00-1204.50 it should be bottoming out for a good bounce, potentially, would need to push through 1208

Dec 19, 2011 1:37:25 PM EST
mike: the NQ is breaking support so the ES is a short under 1206.50 for now down to the 1202 area. Not crazy about long side until we had an upturn and up trend intact

Dec 19, 2011 1:49:22 PM EST
mike: 1205-1204 area should hold if this is basing out for a move higher this afternoon, even though the move will likely be sold into, possibly around 1208 and maybe up to 1212 would be possible

Dec 19, 2011 1:56:23 PM EST
mike: a quick rally up to the 1208 .50 area. A pullback should hold around 1207-1206 .50 area to continue higher

Dec 19, 2011 2:13:37 PM EST
mike: this move back down should hold the 1206.00-1205.50 area at the furthest to keep the upside going. 1208-1209 old support is a good/important resistance

Dec 19, 2011 2:29:00 PM EST
mike: 1206.00 is pivotal and it needs clear and held on a pullback to prove short-term strength. The 1204 level has turned to important support and has been territory two times so far so that needs to hold to avoid a breakdown

Dec 19, 2011 2:48:44 PM EST
mike: 1204 .00 held for the third time today (trying for a fourth year) after the low was made at the 1202 .25 key support. As long as that holds the market will be making a bottom of some sort. However if that breaks and it's not quickly turned right back up from above 1202 and the market will have a problem. the 1208-1209 Area is still the major area to get over and hold to get out of trouble today

Dec 19, 2011 3:13:55 PM EST
mike: 1202 is now resistance on a bounce. We are at the 1198 area, if they break1198 and don't reverse right back up then the 1194 area will be next on the downside

Dec 19, 2011 3:52:13 PM EST
mike: it has been stuck between 1199 on top and 1196 on the bottom. Would expect this to crumble a bit into the close and as long as it stays under 1199

Dec 19, 2011 3:53:01 PM EST
mike: have a great rest of your day!

Friday- December 16, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 16, 2011 9:30:27 AM EST
mike: we should see a pullback to 1215-1214 area and that is a key area it looks

Dec 16, 2011 9:37:09 AM EST
mike: 1218 will be pivotal-no reversal and less breaks

Dec 16, 2011 9:42:40 AM EST
mike: need to stay over 1219.00 now, the high should be made

Dec 16, 2011 9:46:04 AM EST
mike: if they stay under 1219 .00-1219 .50 that 1215- 1214 area it is in that cards

Dec 16, 2011 10:00:09 AM EST
mike: the pullback held above the first important support area- 1219 is pivotal support-

Dec 16, 2011 10:06:01 AM EST
mike: the 1220 .50 area is now support. 1224 .50 is resistance for the market but it's in good shape above 1220 area

Dec 16, 2011 10:13:08 AM EST
mike: stalled out at resistance-a pullback shouldn't go too far by the way this is acting

Dec 16, 2011 10:24:32 AM EST
mike: if the 1222.50 area is broken and not reversed quickly than a reversal/decent pullback should start. 1220.50 should be the support on a breakdown

Dec 16, 2011 10:31:15 AM EST
mike: 1221 .25 should be support and then 1220.50 area should be more important to hold

Dec 16, 2011 10:37:58 AM EST
mike: 1220.50 was a pullback low so far. This needs to get back over 1224 and hold -not make another double top

Dec 16, 2011 10:47:04 AM EST
mike: unable to push through 1224

Dec 16, 2011 10:50:38 AM EST
mike: and also unable to break below 1221 .25 and we need a break those levels either way to get things moving

Dec 16, 2011 11:03:27 AM EST
mike: 1221.25 was defended so far but it's acting top-heavy, need to push over 1224 for the move is over for now

Dec 16, 2011 11:05:28 AM EST
mike: 1220.25-1219.50 is the next support

Dec 16, 2011 11:11:29 AM EST
mike: pullback held at 1220.25 support but if 1222 isn't exceeded/and held then 1219.50 should be tested and may be lower

Dec 16, 2011 11:27:06 AM EST
mike: 1220.25 held as support. However 1221.50 was a support earlier and now has turned into resistance that means a move over 1221.50 is needed and will need to hold that

Dec 16, 2011 11:29:46 AM EST
mike: otherwise a break of the 1220.25 area sends them right to 1219.50- possibly 1218 area

Dec 16, 2011 11:43:10 AM EST
mike: 1218 area is reached and now the 1220.25 area is the resistance bounce. The 1216 early low would be next and we could be headed towards that 1215-1214 area at this holds under 1218 for very long. that will be the key for further weakness

Dec 16, 2011 11:50:16 AM EST
mike: they need to get over 1218.50 and then hold that level on a pullback to get out of a trip to 1215-1214 on this leg down

Dec 16, 2011 11:57:21 AM EST
mike: so far we have a test of the early low at 1216.00 and a small bounce off of it. However since 11 AM it has been a steady grind lower so look for bounces to fail in for a move to 1215-1214 where the market will need to hold to avoid trouble

Dec 16, 2011 11:59:13 AM EST
mike: the 1212 area will be in the cards if 1214 is held. The NQ has further to go to do the same damage

Dec 16, 2011 12:00:45 PM EST
mike: how many mics

Dec 16, 2011 12:08:38 PM EST
mike: the 1212 area held so far, 1212.75 low - 1216.50 is as far as a bounce should go now for the downtrend to stay intact-staying under 1215 keeps pressure on

Dec 16, 2011 12:35:36 PM EST
mike: the 1215 level was touch but not exceeded and it kept the pressure on and now the break the 1212 level makes this a bad looking market. The 1208 area which was yesterday's low in the bottom of a range would be next on the downside and very important to hold/or break through and possibly even head towards 1202 area

Dec 16, 2011 12:47:10 PM EST
mike: the NQ reached its equivalent support of 1218 area on the ES at the 2230.50 area. If that is broken then I suspect this will break pretty hard and stick- not turn right back around like it did when it tested that level the first time

Dec 16, 2011 1:01:17 PM EST
mike: the ES held 1208 and the NQ turn right back from 2229.50 so we might have a low in place for now. That run up reach 1212.75 and that is a resistance that needs to be taken out to take the pressure off

Dec 16, 2011 1:03:45 PM EST
mike: I'll be back in about five minutes. a pullback that holds around the 1211.25 area should be reversal area to keep the upside going

Dec 16, 2011 1:47:47 PM EST
mike: sorry that was a long five minutes. The way this market is acting I'm having a hard time liking the long side, unless it's for a quick scalp. In any case, we have probably seen the high and low for the day unless something happens in the last hour. If the 1208 area is broken then the market should be in some trouble unless it's quickly reversed. On the upside 1215 is still a important resistance to get over

Dec 16, 2011 2:00:10 PM EST
mike: there could be a bounce from the 1210 level but as long as they stay under 1214 selling bounces should offer the easier trade

Dec 16, 2011 2:14:40 PM EST
mike: 1210.50 was well bid 3 times now, but with quadruple witch going on there is a very thin bid/offer in the queue on both sides, all of the players are present. it makes a strong move possible at any time.. For now the market is okay as long as 1210 holds but needs a break and hold over 1212 to try to get the upside going

Dec 16, 2011 2:30:06 PM EST
mike: the 1209.50 level has been holding on the bottom and of this two-day range except for the spike lows that reversed from 1208 yesterday and 1208.25 this morning. A hold under that and not a quick reversal down here will put more pressure on

Dec 16, 2011 2:43:06 PM EST
mike: the 1212 area was turned back again. a test of 1210 should hold to keep this going on the upside. 1209-1208 is turning into a big support area that's key for the rest of the day. the ES has to stay over that area to avoid breaking down.

Dec 16, 2011 2:48:40 PM EST
mike: they held a 1210.50. If they stay over 1211.50 in the move and continue. a test of the 1214-1215 area would be sold if this is still weak.

Dec 16, 2011 2:58:28 PM EST
mike: I'm planning an early weekend and am not crazy about trading option expiration. So I am just about to leave. they reached 1213.50 on the bounce and fail. the 1214.25 level is resistance that needs clear/held to get a short squeeze higher. The 1209-1208 area should be very important on the bottom side.

Dec 16, 2011 3:00:41 PM EST
mike: have a great weekend and I'll see you here on Monday morning

Thursday- December 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 15, 2011 9:29:00 AM EST
mike: another day with a gap opening. Watch that 1220 area for a reversal if there is going to be one early here

Dec 15, 2011 9:39:45 AM EST
mike: 1220.00-1220.50 area looks to be pivotal. 1216.50 low needs to hold or a test of 1214 area which looks like key support this morning

Dec 15, 2011 9:44:10 AM EST
mike: early high should be in and 1214-1213 likely to be tested at least

Dec 15, 2011 9:45:38 AM EST
mike: 1218 area should be pivotal now in the early going.

Dec 15, 2011 9:53:29 AM EST
mike: 1218.50 rejected on first attempt. I think a break that under 1217 needed to turn this back down

Dec 15, 2011 9:57:54 AM EST
mike: 1217.00 was held so far. Keep an eye on that NQ- it will need to get turn up to get the ES moving up pretty well

Dec 15, 2011 10:00:42 AM EST
mike: Philly Fed release is good

Dec 15, 2011 10:04:23 AM EST
mike: needs to stay over the 1217 level to avoid a reversal. A move over 1220.00-1220.50 is needed to get something going on the upside. That could be a lid. Sell bounces under 1220 and under 2244 on the NQ

Dec 15, 2011 10:05:10 AM EST
mike: 1214-1213 area is a support that needs to hold below the market in a target for a push lower

Dec 15, 2011 10:13:23 AM EST
mike: 1212.50 the low so far but the selling probably no over- if they get over 1215 resistance then a further pop up to the 1217 area should be good resistance

Dec 15, 2011 10:18:13 AM EST
mike: 1214.50 is the bounce high so far. Need a move over that that holds to turn this trend a bit. The NQ has been a weak link- it needs to get over 2238

Dec 15, 2011 10:26:27 AM EST
mike: stuck at 1215. Needs to push through soon .1213.50 now needs to hold on a pullback here. Watch 1216.50-1217.25 area for resistance if there is one more feeble push higher

Dec 15, 2011 10:33:51 AM EST
mike: if this 1212 area is broken and held, then we should be on our way to test the 1208.50 area again. The market has seen these as transition areas the past few days. It takes a move above 1215.75-1216 .25 area to get a transition on the upside

Dec 15, 2011 10:42:04 AM EST
mike: one more push towards 1208.50 area should the next area to test. The 1212.25 area is good resistance now in 1213.75 is a key area that shouldn't be broken to keep the downtrend intact

Dec 15, 2011 10:50:44 AM EST
mike: 1208 area reached. A small bounce is possible from here for the 1210 area should offer resistance and more selling - if that's not a low just under 1208

Dec 15, 2011 11:03:29 AM EST
mike: they moved over 1210 but without much gusto so far. need to stick over 1209 or the action returns to bearish.

Dec 15, 2011 11:06:58 AM EST
mike: they won't be able to get over 1212 area and hold unless the NQ can join the move by getting over 2226 area and stick up there also-it is weaker and leading this

Dec 15, 2011 11:15:39 AM EST
mike: the last pullback had a test of the 1209 area and reversed up quickly. Buyers are in charge as long as that's not broken. Just don't expect this to go to far unless 1212 area is cleared and then held

Dec 15, 2011 11:22:47 AM EST
mike: 1210.50 is now a key support to keep this channel up intact

Dec 15, 2011 11:36:43 AM EST
mike: a breakout over the 1212 area and that needs to hold on a pullback-- if it is tested and not held/reversed up then the 1210.50 area is that key support. I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so

Dec 15, 2011 12:00:54 PM EST
mike: move over 1212 ended up being a fake out-then a drop under 1212 had a little momentum to the 1209.50 area - 1212 area should be pivotal- then the 1208.50 level below. I still like the NQ on the short side on the bounces, seems to be easier to read

Dec 15, 2011 12:23:39 PM EST
mike: we are having a two-sided day. the double bottom at 1209-08 area is a good support on the bottom side and should hold to avoid trouble today. They pull back now should hold around the 1213.50 area and just say normal pullback. The 1218 area would be next on the upside

Dec 15, 2011 12:24:57 PM EST
mike: I need to be a way for about 30-45 minutes but will try to update if possible as I will have one eye on the screen

Dec 15, 2011 12:52:43 PM EST
mike: he bounced back to 1214 area should fail-the 1212 area is in the cards should be a pivotal area-a break send them back down two 1211 area at least

Dec 15, 2011 1:26:10 PM EST
mike: 1212 area will need to continue to hold or else we could see one more push to the downside. That 12

Dec 15, 2011 1:30:35 PM EST
mike: that 1198 area was met on Globex and they rallied strongly from there-so we probably won't be seeing that area again but if so it will very likely be bought. To avoid a break of 1212 we need a breakout over 1214- hopefully a break of this range gives us some momentum and a retracement

Dec 15, 2011 1:37:33 PM EST
mike: if the 1209-1208 area is broken on this move down, then not quickly reverse back up, a move down to 1204.50 could be in the works. 1212.50 area is now resistance on a bounce

Dec 15, 2011 1:47:08 PM EST
mike: that was "telling" - the 1213 area should be good support on a pullback here. that 1209-1208 area is a very key and obviously a pretty strong support area if reached again

Dec 15, 2011 2:33:12 PM EST
mike: "buy the dip--sell the bounce" action in a two-sided choppy day. At the moment the market looks like it can push lower and possibly take out the 1209 on the ES and 2224 area on the NQ. or at least tests that area-there was good buying their on the last test and should be a key support

Dec 15, 2011 2:39:53 PM EST
mike: 1210 .00 low on this pullback, making higher lows so that should be somewhat important as support to be a buyer with a tight stop. watch 1211.50 for a pivot area now. The market should turn back up if that is exceeded and not quickly turn right back down.

Dec 15, 2011 2:48:26 PM EST
mike: 1211.50 was rejected and then the pullback was quickly bought. Still would be careful on the long side until some proof of strength

Dec 15, 2011 2:58:57 PM EST
mike: 1211.50 is resistance. 1208 .50 needs to hold to avoid a test of the 1204 .50 area

Dec 15, 2011 3:08:00 PM EST
mike: the next pullback should hold 1210 to have a chance of breaking up through 1211.50 resistance area

Dec 15, 2011 3:11:30 PM EST
mike: I need to leave early today. resistance to break and hold his the 1211.50 in the support that needs held to keep the rally intact is at 1208 area.

Dec 15, 2011 3:15:56 PM EST
mike: choppy all day and it looks like it will stay that way. have a good rest of the day. I'll see you here tomorrow morning

Tuesday- December 13, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 13, 2011 9:52:43 AM EST
mike: 1241.00-1240.50 will need to hold on a pullback to avoid a reversal up here. The 1242-1243 area not able to be pushed through and held so far

Dec 13, 2011 10:02:18 AM EST
mike: 1241.00-1240.50 area held so far, that should be the first sign of weakness if broken

Dec 13, 2011 10:07:27 AM EST
mike: a pullback from up here should begin in the next 5-10 minutes if we are going to not have a trend up move

Dec 13, 2011 10:10:19 AM EST
mike: they pulled back off the high but no damage done unless the 1240.50 support is broken

Dec 13, 2011 10:26:36 AM EST
mike: 1240. 50 holds so far but this looks like a short under 1242.75 or at 1244 early high made 33 minutes into the trading day

Dec 13, 2011 10:29:01 AM EST
mike: 1239 area it is the first importance support. Keep an eye on the NQ-it's a bit more volatile but is leading this morning

Dec 13, 2011 10:31:30 AM EST
mike: 1238.25 should be a decent support area, old resistance, but 1241.25 area should offer resistance

Dec 13, 2011 10:40:07 AM EST
mike: 1236.50 area is a small support, the low of the day so far and the opening range, 1232.50 area would be next support if there is another right lower. Resistance is at 1239.25-1239.75 for this trend to stay down

Dec 13, 2011 10:49:28 AM EST
mike: if you are short from earlier (around 1141.00, the short under 1242.75) covering part at 1232.50 area and trailing a stop- 1237 area a transition area on remainder

Dec 13, 2011 10:56:55 AM EST
mike: so far 1233.25 is a low, just over 1232.50 support area, this bounce needs to fail around 1236 if they are going to try to break through the low. keep an eye on the NQ for it to break under 2288 area

Dec 13, 2011 11:01:45 AM EST
mike: 1236.00 bounce high, look for a test of 1233.25-1233.50, may be lower if the NQ continues to drop

Dec 13, 2011 11:06:08 AM EST
mike: half of the short covered, 1236 area now is a good resistance on a bounce, might want to tighten stops

Dec 13, 2011 11:08:50 AM EST
mike: 1230.50-1228.75 area was yesterday's closing area there should be some support in that area for a bounce to short

Dec 13, 2011 11:13:26 AM EST
mike: 1233.25 area is resistance as long as 1230. 50 area not broken, 1228 area with the next. the 1236 area is a key resistance

Dec 13, 2011 11:18:52 AM EST
mike: needs to reverse back down from this 1234 area or else a low is in

Dec 13, 2011 11:23:36 AM EST
mike: it looks like this will hold together as long as 1232.50 holds for now

Dec 13, 2011 11:32:17 AM EST
mike: this bounce should fail to clear 1236 just above, but if it does then look for a bounce high to be put in around the 1238 area. Right now 1233.25 needs to hold for this could roll over again

Dec 13, 2011 11:44:20 AM EST
mike: 1236.50 was reversed/sold. 1233.75 had a good bid up and could be a transition area. This little trend doesn't reverse unless1235 the more important that 1233.75 is broken

Dec 13, 2011 11:51:31 AM EST
mike: back in just a bit

Dec 13, 2011 12:14:38 PM EST
mike: today is a Fed day and we had a good early trading opportunity that worked out very well. so not going to press any trades, something needs to stand out like a sore thumb before going back in. Right now it looks like a bounce high could be in for there is one more push up towards 1238 area. It does appear to be a fairly low-risk selling opportunity if they pop up there and then reverse, otherwise a break of 1235 can turn this down

Dec 13, 2011 12:40:37 PM EST
mike: they broke 1235 and barely bounced back, this break will make the next bounce a shorting opportunity.

Dec 13, 2011 12:42:52 PM EST
mike: I will be in and out over the next hour or so but will try to keep with some updates in between. Today's low is at a key spot and if broken we could go back towards 1225-1224 if broken by much

Dec 13, 2011 1:29:49 PM EST
mike: the 1237 area has been rejected three times so watch that for good resistance on a pop up to sell into on a stall or some rejection. Watch the 1234-1233 area for what should be a key support area to keep this trading range in front of the Fed release

Dec 13, 2011 1:39:33 PM EST
mike: another pop up that did not stick- and a test 1234 that so far caught a bid. A break is more likely here given the refusal to push over 1237 area which is key now

Dec 13, 2011 1:56:26 PM EST
mike: since we have been in a range coming into the Fed release, expect the market to have a big move (relatively) after the release. There should be an "up-down-up" or vice versa type of pattern after the release and then a trend should develop and that should last into the last 40-20 minutes of stock trading.

Dec 13, 2011 2:13:01 PM EST
mike: Fed release in about five minutes. For now it looks like things will be okay as long as that 1234-1233 area is not broken. A move under that area that is not quickly reverse back up the cause a pretty sharp downdraft

Dec 13, 2011 2:19:15 PM EST
mike: so far the 1234-1233 zone was reached and held so far but a bounce should fail the way this is acting with 1237 as a key resistance

Dec 13, 2011 2:22:49 PM EST
mike: this is bearish under the 1234.50-1235.25 area

Dec 13, 2011 2:40:01 PM EST
mike: 1226 is a small support them down to the 1221-1220 area from yesterday will see a major area

Dec 13, 2011 2:44:45 PM EST
mike: there is a bounce to the 1229.75-1230.25 area it should fail if going lower. That 1233-1234 Area it is a major area if they rally back strong which looks doubtful

Dec 13, 2011 3:00:11 PM EST
mike: a small double bottom at 1224. must hold or else yesterday's low area will be tested. 1229.75-1230.25 area needs to be exceeded to get this out of some trouble.

Dec 13, 2011 3:09:13 PM EST
mike: 1229.50 the bounce high so far, if that's not cleared in 1226 is broken then they could take out the low and go to test yesterday's low. watch the 1227 level for a bounce and if that doesn't happen they could be breaking down again

Dec 13, 2011 3:23:54 PM EST
mike: if this keeps going through 1220 then look for the 1218 area-if no sign of a turn from there then we could be headed back to 1200 or a bit lower

Dec 13, 2011 3:30:51 PM EST
mike: 1218 area reached, that is a must hold area or else the 1212 area could be seen. 1224 area now is a pivotal resistance to get that over and hold to get this out of trouble

Dec 13, 2011 3:35:11 PM EST
mike: 1218 was easily cut through and now 1212 should be the next target

Dec 13, 2011 3:35:58 PM EST
mike: we could seeing the 1200 area or just below if this continues to break down through the 1212 area

Dec 13, 2011 3:41:53 PM EST
mike: 1212.50 low so far. The 1218 area should be resistance now,

Dec 13, 2011 3:51:11 PM EST
mike: the ES tested the 1218 area and failed so far, market and trouble if they close under that level. Have a great rest of your day!

Monday- December 12, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 12, 2011 9:30:03 AM EST
mike: the 1244 area is a pivotal resistance today if a decent bounce. They need to stay over that 1232 area on further weakness-that is the key support

Dec 12, 2011 9:37:40 AM EST
mike: should bounce from 32.25-31.75 area if there is going to be a reversal. 1238 is good resistance on the first bounce

Dec 12, 2011 9:46:03 AM EST
mike: holding over 1232.25 support a must otherwise 1228 could be seen. 1236.50-1237.25 area is first resistance on a bounce

Dec 12, 2011 9:58:20 AM EST
mike: 1233.25-1233.75 area should be resistance on this bounce if going lower. Market under pressure under that area down to 1228 area

Dec 12, 2011 10:08:34 AM EST
mike: 1228.75 low so far-just over the 1228 support. first resistance on this bounce is 1232.75.

Dec 12, 2011 10:23:39 AM EST
mike: a test of the 1223 area could be in the cards here. We would need a very quick reversal back to the upside if tested. Right now the market stays in a trend down mode unless 1232 is exceeded on a bounce. There should be some resistance at 1230 level if going lower to the major support

Dec 12, 2011 10:39:54 AM EST
mike: We would need a break and hold over the 1229.50-1230.00 area to begin to turn the trend

Dec 12, 2011 10:45:55 AM EST
mike: a potential little double bottom at 1226.50-1226.25 area. And move over 1228.50 then holds there on a pullback we get the trends turned up for a bit-1232 area is a Key resistance if they do bounce from down here

Dec 12, 2011 11:25:11 AM EST
mike: we should have a low in, the 1229.50-1230 area is a key area to get over it and hold to change this trend

Dec 12, 2011 11:31:23 AM EST
mike: the 1227.00-1226.50 area needs to hold on this dip to keep the bounce attempt intact

Dec 12, 2011 11:46:16 AM EST
mike: we could see a bounce from down here but as long as 1229.75 not exceeded the market stays under pressure-the 1223 area should be important down here

Dec 12, 2011 11:52:17 AM EST
mike: watch 1226.50 area on a bounce for what should be a resistance. A bounce from this area (1224.00-1222.50 zone) has to happen soon. The next key area is around the 1218 area on the ES

Dec 12, 2011 12:02:47 PM EST
mike: 1222.50-1224.00 area will need to be cleared and held, not rejected as it has been at resistance this morning, to begin to get out of this hole. A test of the low should be in the cards and maybe down to 1218 area if the 1220 level is broken.

Dec 12, 2011 12:07:07 PM EST
mike: back about 15 minutes.

Dec 12, 2011 12:19:34 PM EST
mike: 1224 should be a pivot area. It's bearish under that level. watch 1222.25 for support now. That will need to break for this little up trend to be broken

Dec 12, 2011 12:43:03 PM EST
mike: 1222.50-1224.00 old key support has turned into a trading range. For now the trend down action continues unless 1224 is cleared and held.. A break under 1222.50 would give us one more push down

Dec 12, 2011 1:02:31 PM EST
mike: the pressure will say on as long as they cannot hold over 1224 area for a long

Dec 12, 2011 1:03:00 PM EST
mike: 1218 is still possible the way this is acting today

Dec 12, 2011 1:42:26 PM EST
mike: 1221 is basically a double bottom because the low at 1220.00 was a spike low ( was quickly reversed) and then 1221 is where the bids came in to push the market back up. that will be a key area for rest of the day- 1223 is minor support it needs to hold to keep the bounce alive

Dec 12, 2011 2:01:19 PM EST
mike: a spike high as 1225.25 was quickly reversed. If not exceeded, we should have a 3.50 point drop off of this high at 1225.25 if a symmetrical move lower-(would need to break 1223.50 to break the trend and get headed that way) that would be to 1221.75 which is close to the double bottom.

Dec 12, 2011 2:08:52 PM EST
mike: pretty good selling at 1224.50, this could get us back to the low and maybe 1218 if it accelerates

Dec 12, 2011 2:14:25 PM EST
mike: 1221 .75 was reached, 1223.50 is resistance on a bounce

Dec 12, 2011 2:27:45 PM EST
mike: a pullback should hold above 1224.00-1223.50 at the lowest to keep the higher lows on the intraday charts intact. In that area breaks then the 1221.50 last low would be challenged.

Dec 12, 2011 2:39:20 PM EST
mike: 1221. 50 needs to hold to avoid a push down towards 1218. 1224 is resistance on a bounce

Dec 12, 2011 2:40:53 PM EST
mike: the NQ also needs to avoid breaking through 2275-2273 area without a quick reversal

Dec 12, 2011 2:48:32 PM EST
mike: 1221.50 held so far-1224 area is about as far as a bounce should go and fail-or a move back to test 1226 it is possible

Dec 12, 2011 3:05:52 PM EST
mike: 1226 was tested and now this has to hold over the 1224.00-1223 .50 area to have a chance to make another run higher

Dec 12, 2011 3:13:55 PM EST
mike: the NQ is the leader here late in the day. It still has that 2275-2273 area earlier to break down, or hold if this is going to avoid a larger drop over the next day or two

Dec 12, 2011 3:31:41 PM EST
mike: the market was in a trading range from shortly after noon so this move will need to stay over 1225.50-1225.00 on a pullback to keep the trends from turning back down and give a leg up towards 1223 area for lower again

Dec 12, 2011 3:38:39 PM EST
mike: the pullbacks held just over 1225.50 and popped up to 1228 so far. This could go to 1229.50 and if that succeeded by much then 1232. If they break under 1227.50-1227.00 then a move up will be over

Dec 12, 2011 3:41:43 PM EST
mike: 1232 almost reached. 1228 is now key support late in the day

Friday- December 09, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 9, 2011 9:29:42 AM EST
mike: 1232 area needs to hold or a bounce that follows should be sold. 1235.55 - 1236.25 it is a resistance that needs clear to avoid early pullback. Today I will be in and out of the office though there probably will not be as many updates

Dec 9, 2011 9:50:32 AM EST
mike: 1240.50-1241.00 was rejected on the first test and should be a key hurdle to clear and hold on a pullback. 1236 should be pivotal on a push lower, if broken and not quickly reversed them a high will be in. We get consumer sentiment report at the top of the hour

Dec 9, 2011 9:56:02 AM EST
mike: the number was released early, need to hold 1240.54-

Dec 9, 2011 9:57:46 AM EST
mike: should have a top at 1242 now especially if 1239 is broken

Dec 9, 2011 10:01:40 AM EST
mike: it looks like 1239 needs to be broken to get a shakeout to the downside

Dec 9, 2011 10:06:59 AM EST
mike: it's tired here. watch 1241.25 for a key spot on a pullback that will need to hold around there. The most important area now this morning is 1239 from earlier

Dec 9, 2011 10:19:07 AM EST
mike: 1241.25 has been holding but if broken then a drop to 1240.75-1240.00 would be as far as a pullback should go or the pattern breaks to the downside

Dec 9, 2011 10:25:54 AM EST
mike: next bounce should fail so a short on a pop up and use 1240.25 as target one

Dec 9, 2011 10:28:13 AM EST
mike: well that happened fast again. This pattern is bearish so look for/or be short under 1242 area. 1239 just below still important to break and hold

Dec 9, 2011 10:33:37 AM EST
mike: 1241.75 bounce high so far but it's starting to look okay as long as 1239 is not broken

Dec 9, 2011 10:38:33 AM EST
mike: character has changed. Bounces should be sold unless they break and hold over 1242 area

Dec 9, 2011 10:56:04 AM EST
mike: a good bounce, with fuel added on the move above 1240.50- that should hold on the pullback to keep the upside going

Dec 9, 2011 11:18:33 AM EST
mike: my connection to this room keeps dropping, so quickly... the 1246.25-1246.75 area was listed as fixed resistance and that is another area for the Bulls to push through. 1245 should hold if it's going to be broken. 1242 area has as far as a pullback should go. 1239-1238 is a major support

Dec 9, 2011 11:25:09 AM EST
mike: I wouldn't try to short this unless the trends change. the market has a strong on dips. A pullback is a buying opportunity unless there is a break and hold under 1245.00-1244.50 area down to the 1242 area

Dec 9, 2011 11:37:57 AM EST
mike: this has to stay over 1246.25 area to keep the grind higher intact. 1248 area looking like a pullback area up here

Dec 9, 2011 11:49:53 AM EST
mike: it rejected the resistance at 1249.50-1250.25 and I should be a high for the lunchtime trading. 1245.00-1244.50 will be to hold or things may have changed

Dec 9, 2011 12:04:05 PM EST
mike: a high should be in for the afternoon/lunchtime trading at 1244.50 area key to hold onto or there can be some damage done to this trend up move

Dec 9, 2011 12:04:19 PM EST
mike: I'll be back in about 20 minutes

Dec 9, 2011 12:43:10 PM EST
mike: the 1144.50 level that I gave for key support held in a rallied up to 1248.25. The last pullback stayed over 1244.50 and now at 1248 area tested. It failed so far-a move back below 1244.50 would put a dent in the upside momentum and trend. Afternoon high should be in but this is a very thin market and can be moved either way pretty fast. Those moves don't always hold however. We could get some quick back and forth action with an upside bias as long as 1244.50 is not broken by much without being quickly reversed back up

Dec 9, 2011 12:54:21 PM EST
mike: this is acting a bit tired and could be a pullback if 1248.not cleared soon

Dec 9, 2011 1:04:13 PM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NQ- it needs a push lower with the ES to get a move going on the downside-or upside from up here.

Dec 9, 2011 1:13:48 PM EST
mike: it looks like a short on a bounce that stalls around the 1247.00-1247.50 area for a scalp-that is a pivotal zone

Dec 9, 2011 1:26:12 PM EST
mike: a double top of sorts if 1248.50 is not exceeded soon. A quick short from here with a stop around the high might be worth a shot here for a scalp. Other wise 1247.50-1247.00 needs broken and not quickly reversed to get (or help confirm) a move lower

Dec 9, 2011 1:26:52 PM EST
mike: also stay with the NQ action as it is leading

Dec 9, 2011 1:30:19 PM EST
mike: this 1250 is right at a key area on the upside, as should get a pullback. Support at 1248at the lowest

Dec 9, 2011 1:35:20 PM EST
mike: the NQ coming off its high helping the ES pullback

Dec 9, 2011 1:39:15 PM EST
mike: this should go to 1248.00 and then bounce and going higher, that should be its key level below. If they manage to push through 1250 then we should see the next resistance at the 1254 area get a test on this move up.

Dec 9, 2011 1:45:25 PM EST
mike: 1248.00held so far I should get a move back up going if this has power to get through 1250 or not

Dec 9, 2011 1:58:08 PM EST
mike: should have a drift lower for a bit so look at the sell side under 1249-1250

Dec 9, 2011 2:00:07 PM EST
mike: it has been a trend up day but by the way it looks we should have a high and at resistance

Dec 9, 2011 2:14:10 PM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 10-15 minutes. Doubt I'll miss much. Right now they are stuck under 1249 and above 1247.50 and need to break through that and stick

Dec 9, 2011 2:45:27 PM EST
mike: look for support at 1249.50-1249.00 for another run up towards 1253.50-1254 .50- that it is still possible as long as the support is not broken. The NQ has look in better shape most of the day

Dec 9, 2011 2:59:12 PM EST
mike: not too far from the next good resistance that's near 1254 on the ES. 1251 .00-1250.50 area is support now than that needs to hold to keep the uptrend intact. If broken and not reversed then a drop to 1249 area likely

Dec 9, 2011 3:05:21 PM EST
mike: we had a good trend up day and now coming off the high going into the last hour, expect a bounce to fail now a top should be in for the day a bounce back to the 1250.5 area would be a good short

Dec 9, 2011 3:06:40 PM EST
mike: 1247 area is the key support this afternoon

Dec 9, 2011 3:15:20 PM EST
mike: 1250.50-1251.00 as resistance should be a pivotal area. have a nice rest of the day and a great weekend. I'll see you here on Monday morning

Thursday- December 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 8, 2011 9:30:11 AM EST
mike: the 1272 upside target was reached before the open. The deeper drops like this one are bought. Still I favor selling rallies, it's easier to see the setups for me

Dec 8, 2011 9:46:01 AM EST
mike: the NQ started out the strongest and it needs to hold around 2312 area to keep its uptrend and the ES needs to bounce from around 1251 to keep from turning down

Dec 8, 2011 9:53:47 AM EST
mike: that should be a good resistance on the ES to sell against

Dec 8, 2011 10:04:50 AM EST
mike: NOTE: the numbers I referred to today will still be from the December contract-the same contract we have been trading- even though today is rollover day to the March 2012 contracts. I will change over to the new front month starting in tonight's nightly update. We have the move starting at 10 AM so market under pressure

Dec 8, 2011 10:05:47 AM EST
mike: as long as there is no move back over 1253 that holds

Dec 8, 2011 10:14:07 AM EST
mike: 1252 area is first resistance on this bounce and it must be clear to get an uptrend

Dec 8, 2011 10:28:47 AM EST
mike: we could get a bounce from down here off of 1246 but there should be the resistance around 1252 now and that needs to be exceeded and then held on a pullback on a pullback to show some upside strength. Otherwise the move will be sold again from around that area or just below

Dec 8, 2011 10:43:57 AM EST
mike: a feeble short covering bounce to just under 1252 so far, but a IF 1252 is cleared they could get a squeeze higher. If not and 1249 breaks and this cuts through 1246 on another push lower than we have a test of the key area at 1244.00-1242.50 area which must be defended to avoid doing damage to the bigger picture trend/range

Dec 8, 2011 10:56:23 AM EST
mike: 1252 was broken but not held. 1252.50 area should be a high and especially if they breakthrough 1250

Dec 8, 2011 11:02:47 AM EST
mike: NOTE: the numbers given are for the December contract that we have been trading, even though rollover to March 2012 happened today. I didn't have a chance to re-do the support and resistance last night. A move back to 1250.25 area should be sold to keep the market under pressure

Dec 8, 2011 11:07:40 AM EST
mike: hard to be a seller at a low, so need a solid break here to head to 1244-1242

Dec 8, 2011 11:10:46 AM EST
mike: staying under 1247 keeps the pressure on.1248.50-1249 .00 area would be a transition to the upside but currently it is good resistance if a bounce

Dec 8, 2011 11:13:58 AM EST
mike: still haven't a few put options from last Friday, only loss has been time decay-I'm going to stay with this a bit longer. Things begin to look bad if 1244 breaks and holds-1238 area would be next if that happens

Dec 8, 2011 11:21:04 AM EST
mike: a pretty feeble bounce so far from major resistance- the pattern stays bearish under 1246.50-1247.25 area now.

Dec 8, 2011 11:27:33 AM EST
mike: they should be sold on this 1246.50-1247.25 area if still weak- 1246.50 the high on this bounce so far. If that's cleared than a low could be in place-it would have to hold on a pullback

Dec 8, 2011 11:34:00 AM EST
mike: tests of the low at a major support held, so things could change but needs a bounce with some gusto-the same resistance--1246.50-1247.25 area needs to be cleared/held

Dec 8, 2011 11:40:34 AM EST
mike: this opens the door for a move towards 1238 as long as it stays trend down under 1246 at the highest right now-1244 should be resistance now

Dec 8, 2011 11:44:57 AM EST
mike: 1143.50-1144 .25 area is about as far as this bounce should go to keep their current persistent trend in force. The NQ made a double bottom and worth keeping an eye on at 2300 as a key area there

Dec 8, 2011 11:51:58 AM EST
mike: 1244.25 is the bounce high so far but this looks like a reversal back up is possible if 1243 can hold

Dec 8, 2011 11:55:37 AM EST
mike: just happened I as I pressed send. There should be some short trapped down under the 1243 old major support looking for cover on a pullback. I will be back in about 10 minutes, and then in an out for about an hour

Dec 8, 2011 12:18:33 PM EST
mike: 1247 on the ES and 2309 on NQ are small resistance but should be important on this bounce. A reversal here and a break under 1244.50 on the ES can turn this back down. A hold of that 1244.50 keeps the trend up for now

Dec 8, 2011 12:35:02 PM EST
mike: 1247 .00 on the ES and 2309.25 on NQ were turned back in the market is back looking at a test of the low if 1242.75 area is broken through and not quickly reversed it and head towards the low end maybe the 1238 area. If they hold that 1242.75

Dec 8, 2011 12:52:57 PM EST
mike: 1244.50 should be good resistance up here if were going back down again

Dec 8, 2011 12:53:38 PM EST
mike: 2305 area on the NQ should be its maximum bounce

Dec 8, 2011 1:03:38 PM EST
mike: both the ES and also the NQ topped out at their resistance levels are now pushing lower we should see 1238 on the ES if the market is going to stay week in a bearish mode

Dec 8, 2011 1:04:34 PM EST
mike: look for resistance around 1242.50-1243.00 on a bounce from down here

Dec 8, 2011 1:05:17 PM EST
mike: if you are short from higher prices stay with this two 1138 or lower

Dec 8, 2011 1:07:19 PM EST
mike: that happened fast. We are getting some quick moves in both directions. The 1242 level should be good resistance on a bounce

Dec 8, 2011 1:20:38 PM EST
mike: watch 1240.50-1241.25 area for resistance on this bounce-that should be sold with this persistent downtrend is going to continue

Dec 8, 2011 1:34:21 PM EST
mike: 1240 was rejected, and that's just under 1240.50-1241.25 area that should be the important upside resistance right now so it could be setting up for one more push lower. If that area is exceeded than a bottom could be in for a while

Dec 8, 2011 1:50:08 PM EST
mike: that was a pretty decent bounce so far but stopped right at the 1240.50-1241.25 area so respect the resistance run til the pace is broken-

Dec 8, 2011 2:03:45 PM EST
mike: that little spurt up to1241 resistance quickly rejected -that should be key resistance now to sell against-it was "last trapped" transition resistance which has worked all day

Dec 8, 2011 2:13:51 PM EST
mike: that was a pretty good short cover bounce off of the 1237 area right now still needs to get over the 1241.25 resistance to show that this has more than the gas tank than the other bounces did

Dec 8, 2011 2:22:17 PM EST
mike: a pullback to around 1240.50- 1240.00 should hold if we are going to stay in this bounce back mode.

Dec 8, 2011 2:30:09 PM EST
mike: this is a short on bounces under 1242-the market is still vulnerable

Dec 8, 2011 2:38:18 PM EST
mike: we are going from a trend down move into a choppy attempt at a transition as the last two drops were quickly reversed no doubt by short taking profits. But as stated earlier the bounces that fail under 1242 are shorting opportunities, that is the resistance to be short below this afternoon

Dec 8, 2011 2:44:55 PM EST
mike: three times a test of 1237-if that is broken and then down to 1232.50-1232.00 area is a possibility. 1237 is a key support

Dec 8, 2011 2:58:08 PM EST
mike: still may see the 1232.50-1232.00 area reached on this leg down

Dec 8, 2011 2:58:47 PM EST
mike: need to stay under the 1240 area at the highest now

Dec 8, 2011 3:07:32 PM EST
mike: I'm not sure what to expect in the last hour of the day has been basically down and unless 1240 is exceeded at 1232.50 area is still a possibility

Dec 8, 2011 3:19:59 PM EST
mike: they are still under 1242 but as long as 1239.50 is not broken this trend up and continue

Dec 8, 2011 3:27:28 PM EST
mike: the 1242.50-1244.00 area will be key on a closing basis I believe so treat that as a pivotal area. A close above that keeps the market of trouble but a close under may not be so good. We should see some crazy action in the next 24 hours.

Dec 8, 2011 3:28:11 PM EST
mike: have a good arrest of the day. I'll see you in the morning

Wednesday- December 07, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 7, 2011 9:24:49 AM EST
mike: 1249.50 was the low on Globex so far. We can get a bounce off of that area but a decent bounce will be sold and the short side should set up better today once again. Back in about 15 minutes or so

Dec 7, 2011 9:43:01 AM EST
mike: 1249-1250 area is resistance and needs cleared/held to take some pressure off- otherwise we could go to 1243 area or lower

Dec 7, 2011 9:54:56 AM EST
mike: a low for a little bit could be in if the ES can stay over 1247 but I don't see a bounce going too far before selling comes in. Old support at 1249 is now new resistance

Dec 7, 2011 10:02:33 AM EST
mike: 1251 area is good resistance that should be sold - 1248-1247 area shouldn't the broken on this pullback is going to get over 1251 on a bounce

Dec 7, 2011 10:07:04 AM EST
mike: 1247 .50 held and that is Key to say over to avoid a test or break of the low. Market not out of trouble unless 1251 exceeded/held

Dec 7, 2011 10:18:11 AM EST
mike: there has been a good bid below around 1247 at 1250 area has been resistance in this little range. Need a breakout of the areas that holds to get a decent move going

Dec 7, 2011 10:26:23 AM EST
mike: the low most tested but this is a bearish pattern as long as staying under 1249-1254 now with 1243 or lower insight

Dec 7, 2011 10:30:03 AM EST
mike: 1246.75& 1247.25 area is resistance on this bounce

Dec 7, 2011 11:01:36 AM EST
mike: the ES made a bottom at the low end of recent range one hour into the trading day. that is a key support zone at 1244-1242. The 1247 held on a pullback in his important support. This 1250 level is the resistance that needs to be cleared/held in order to take some pressure off - if cleared then we could get a bounce up toward 1253-1254 or so were there should be sellers waiting

Dec 7, 2011 11:10:24 AM EST
mike: this 1251 should be about as far as a bounce should go if the ES is going to go down and break the support at 1249 which is pivotal now

Dec 7, 2011 11:22:15 AM EST
mike: a slow-motion pullback to 1249.00- that should be a pivotal level still going to test 1253-1254 area

Dec 7, 2011 11:34:36 AM EST
mike: the ES got a squeeze up to 1253-1254 so far. Small support 1251.50 now and need to stay above that to keep this uptrend intact.. If 1249 is broken then the pressure should be back on . Back in about 15 minutes

Dec 7, 2011 12:04:54 PM EST
mike: market is testing yesterday's closing range and it should be hard to get over 1255 and hold up there. if 1252.50-1252.00 area is broken then we can see a drop down to the 1250.50 area as first support.

Dec 7, 2011 12:09:44 PM EST
mike: I will be in end out over the next 45 minutes .the move has been a"trend up" move since the low so if there is a break up 1252.50 pattern will change

Dec 7, 2011 12:28:24 PM EST
mike: 1252.50 area held and the trend up move is still going. That is a key area now this afternoon. No damage done unless that is broken. If they continue to push higher here look for resistance around 1257-1258 area next. This could be a strong area to push through and hold up here

Dec 7, 2011 12:46:17 PM EST
mike: a pullback to 1255.50-1255.00 zone would be as far as it should go if going to stay in a strong uptrend. .at this juncture 1256.00 weeks to hold . If there is a break and hold over 1258-starting now as I type-then 1260.50 is the next resistance

Dec 7, 2011 12:47:11 PM EST
mike: 1258.50 could be a high so careful trying to chase a rally up here

Dec 7, 2011 1:00:49 PM EST
mike: 1257must hold

Dec 7, 2011 1:10:46 PM EST
mike: 1255.50 1255.00 supp tgt

Dec 7, 2011 1:15:15 PM EST
mike: 57.00 57.50 r

Dec 7, 2011 1:31:46 PM EST
mike: the fixed initial resistance at 1259.00-1259.75 was just missed on the last bounce and they pullback to the 1255.50 support. This is another short up in that area for another drop to test support

Dec 7, 2011 1:47:48 PM EST
mike: support being tested from the last bounce high. A place to lock in profit, trail a stop loss on remainder

Dec 7, 2011 1:53:17 PM EST
mike: resistance is at 1256.50 area and shouldn't be exceeded/held if this has topped out just under initial resistance. The next support is at 1252.50 area and key

Dec 7, 2011 2:12:21 PM EST
mike: the ES went right to 1256 50 and then turn down keeping this toppy acting so if here have a short position that is the

Dec 7, 2011 2:12:53 PM EST
mike: Key resistance to stay under

Dec 7, 2011 2:24:37 PM EST
mike: if 1252 is broken and not quickly reversed then pressure will be on the downside. Resistance on this move is at 1255.50-1256.00- that should not be exceeded/held on this amounts

Dec 7, 2011 2:39:49 PM EST
mike: pullback from 1256.00 has to gather some momentum by pushing under 1254 and hold it or it could be exceeded on the upside

Dec 7, 2011 2:39:58 PM EST
mike: just happened

Dec 7, 2011 2:42:02 PM EST
mike: it's kind of a tough call now. But it looks like nothing bad will happen as long as the ES stays over this 1253-1252 area just below current prices. It's just hard to see much upside from here the way this is acting

Dec 7, 2011 2:49:57 PM EST
mike: it looks like 1256 is going to be important after all. A bounce is a short under that level. The NQ might be an easier short as it is a bit weaker in here

Dec 7, 2011 3:32:25 PM EST
mike: a pullback will need to hold around 1255.50 to keeps the trend intact. Resistance at 1260 and then 1263

Dec 7, 2011 3:38:11 PM EST
mike: as long as 1256.50-1255.50 zone is not broken then the market will be okay to end the day on a good note. In that area is broken then the trend will turn-it should be solid support the way this is acting late in the day. Have a good rest of the day and I'll see you in the morning

Tuesday- December 06, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 6, 2011 9:29:30 AM EST
mike: 1258 area is needed to be cleared and held per last night's update

Dec 6, 2011 9:42:12 AM EST
mike: reversed from 1258.50 resistance, stops on shorts just above - a move down to 1255-1254 area

Dec 6, 2011 9:44:32 AM EST
mike: partial cover on short from 1258 here at 1254.50-stop at breakeven at worst on the remainder

Dec 6, 2011 9:48:51 AM EST
mike: 1248.50 should be in the cards if 1252 is broken and not reverse back up through 1254area

Dec 6, 2011 9:59:33 AM EST
mike: 1255.50is resistance on this bounce should be pivotal

Dec 6, 2011 10:07:28 AM EST
mike: 1255.50 is now support that needs to hold-a transition area early

Dec 6, 2011 10:26:25 AM EST
mike: 1256.50 is now support that should hold on a pullback to keep the upside from reversing.

Dec 6, 2011 10:33:24 AM EST
mike: the market is bullish as long as 1257.50-1257.00 area is held on a pullback. If that is broken then things might change. There is some resistance at 1261.50 from yesterday that needs to be pushed through

Dec 6, 2011 10:43:12 AM EST
mike: 1257.25 was bought and just a small bounce before reversing back down and now back to a top heavy market-a sell on bounces

Dec 6, 2011 11:09:01 AM EST
mike: the high was made about one hour in-need to get over 1257 and not turn it back down to keep up side potential. otherwise we could go back to test the 1252 support area. A test of 1260 that stalls or shows rejection would set up a short

Dec 6, 2011 11:20:45 AM EST
mike: it has been a choppy grind lower since the 1260.25 high was made and they still need to get over 1257 to change the pattern. Both sides are in play but better short earlier

Dec 6, 2011 11:30:22 AM EST
mike: no hold over 1257. Watch also the NQ as it is still the leader on the drops and currently that important support

Dec 6, 2011 11:34:22 AM EST
mike: 1252 very important below if a break under 1254 trigger stops

Dec 6, 2011 11:36:24 AM EST
mike: 1249-1248 area should be next support and get a test if 1252 is not quickly reverse back up

Dec 6, 2011 11:43:59 AM EST
mike: 1255.50 should be about as far as another feeble bounce goes to stay in this boring but persistent grind lower

Dec 6, 2011 12:11:55 PM EST
mike: the market is okay as long as 1254.50 is held, a pullback should hold for a trade on the long side. I'll be back in about 20 minutes

Dec 6, 2011 12:41:05 PM EST
mike: if you got long on the test of 1254 .50 then don't overstay as the 1257.00-1257.50 has been a good resistance over the last hour-just a scalp trade

Dec 6, 2011 1:02:07 PM EST
mike: about three point range over the last hour. This remains vulnerable as long as it's trading under 1257

Dec 6, 2011 1:17:45 PM EST
mike: this is still stuck in a range but a good bid comes in at the bottom of it- another pullback to test 1254.50 should be bought

Dec 6, 2011 1:26:00 PM EST
mike: should see support at 1257.00-1256.50 to get another pop up to the upside and keep this breakout alive

Dec 6, 2011 1:44:47 PM EST
mike: the 1257.50-1257.00 area will need to hold on this little pullback or it could break down to 1255.50 and 1254 once again. 1259 is a key resistance now

Dec 6, 2011 2:02:47 PM EST
mike: really some weird action today- a quick move in either direction wouldn't be a surprise; it looks like a a better short under 1258 then a buying opportunity-the NQ not acting good and should pull ES down with it

Dec 6, 2011 2:13:13 PM EST
mike: if this is going to stay in a downtrend then the NQ should hold under 2319 area and the ES should stay under 1257.00-1257.50 area which looks pivotal-actually 2319 on the NQ also looks pivotal

Dec 6, 2011 2:20:57 PM EST
mike: a pullback to around 1257 should hold now on the ES and that 2319 area on the NQ should also be watched for support or a break. It is a scalper's market. Other wise worth a seat on the sidelines today

Dec 6, 2011 2:38:12 PM EST
mike: a good bid on the pullback-this time 1258 area should hold it on a higher. If they push through 1260 then there is minor resistance at 1261.50 and then 1263.00

Dec 6, 2011 2:42:20 PM EST
mike: that happened fast. The 1259 are now support on a pullback-it should hold so look for buying at that area if reached. A small pullback should hold around 1260.50 the lowest

Dec 6, 2011 2:46:25 PM EST
mike: I have to leave early today, at 2:50 PM (about five minutes) careful trying to short this market; they're something at work that is keeping it up. It wouldn't get into any trouble unless it came back to the 1258-1257 area and didn't get turned right back up

Dec 6, 2011 2:51:10 PM EST
mike: 1263.00 reached but might just be a resting point before an attack on the 1266 area as long as 1260.75 is not broken. If that is not held then the move may have a deeper pullback but the market should be able to hold together the way it is acting on the pullbacks.

Dec 6, 2011 2:51:56 PM EST
mike: I need to get going. Have a good rest of the day, and I'll see you here in the morning

Monday- December 05, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 5, 2011 9:37:31 AM EST
mike: apologies for the late start, lots of problems this morning including this PC not wanting to work correctly. A pullback to the 1258 area will need to hold on its next test

Dec 5, 2011 9:47:56 AM EST
mike: there should be a turn close to the top of the hour, don't trust long side as 1258 should be broken. 1261 is resistance that needs cleared and held

Dec 5, 2011 9:55:23 AM EST
mike: this will stay in an uptrend as long as 1260.50 is held

Dec 5, 2011 10:01:34 AM EST
mike: the 10 AM turn especially if 1260 is broken again

Dec 5, 2011 10:15:29 AM EST
mike: a trading range with a bullish bias up here so far. 1262 has a small support, if broken 1259.50-1258.50 area is key to stay over or reverse back up from. If that is broken and not quickly reversed then things will be turning bearish for at least a little bit

Dec 5, 2011 10:31:08 AM EST
mike: 1263 was last listed resistance for the ES coming into the day, the last push up came from that area and it should hold now for a trend up to continue. A pullback if broken

Dec 5, 2011 10:40:18 AM EST
mike: 1263.75-1263.00 area below needs to hold on a pullback to keep the upside intact. stalling out but if there is one more push it up to 1268 that could give a small reversal. A two point pullback is about as far as a pullback should go to keep this strong

Dec 5, 2011 10:48:29 AM EST
mike: the pullback held just over 1263.75 but the 1266 level needs to be cleared soon or else a deeper drop is coming-down to 1263 or so

Dec 5, 2011 10:59:39 AM EST
mike: 1263.00 reached now look for resistance at 1264.50-that needs to be exceeded to get upside back in gear. If that is sold then a break of 1263 will be likely

Dec 5, 2011 11:09:08 AM EST
mike: they are trying to base out at 1263 support/old resistance and should be bullish as long as that holds. Just watch 1264.50 area for some selling

Dec 5, 2011 11:20:39 AM EST
mike: from 1263 up to 1264.50 was sold in a quiet market. Need to push through that or we can reverse up here

Dec 5, 2011 11:22:07 AM EST
mike: 1261.50 area would be the next support on a push through 1263 that holds

Dec 5, 2011 11:27:19 AM EST
mike: reach 1261.50 -now 1263 area should be sold if we are rolling over

Dec 5, 2011 11:35:15 AM EST
mike: 1263 area reached- should be pivotal. 1261. 50 is the important area to hold. If that is broken then we could go to 1258 area. I'll be back in about 20 minutes or so

Dec 5, 2011 12:13:24 PM EST
mike: the pullback tested 1261.50 on three tries and that is still the important support this afternoon. Watch for a bounce off of 1263 again. it must do so.1264.50 is still the resistance above that needs to be broken and held to break out of the top of the small range

Dec 5, 2011 12:24:13 PM EST
mike: one hour and a three point range between the updated resistance at 1264.50 on top and 1261.50 updated support on bottom. Unable to get over 1264.50 showing signs of weakening but need a push under 1263 to put some pressure on otherwise it stay in the range

Dec 5, 2011 12:42:04 PM EST
mike: I think that 1263.50 should hold here if going to make another push higher

Dec 5, 2011 12:52:42 PM EST
mike: 1264.25 is now support on a pullback that should hold to keep this grinding higher. If broken then a heads up for potential weakness

Dec 5, 2011 1:00:35 PM EST
mike: 1264.75 is now a key support on a pullback. it's been a grinding move higher and that needs to hold to keep the breakout alive and avoid some top looking action

Dec 5, 2011 1:23:52 PM EST
mike: good resistance so far today at 1266 area and the market is losing momentum again and looking bearish and headed towards 1263 again. There should be good buying down there if the market is going to end the day on a good note. A break of that and especially 1261. 50 would make this a reversal day

Dec 5, 2011 1:33:23 PM EST
mike: bounce off of 1263 but not exactly strong buying. Careful as long as this is under 1264.50-that should be bullish is broken above but some trouble if 1263 has broken and held-it has been pivotal today

Dec 5, 2011 1:43:15 PM EST
mike: from here on out today look for the bounces to fail. 1258 should be a support and then down to 1252 area if its momentum

Dec 5, 2011 1:52:32 PM EST
mike: 58.50-59.25-the resistance

Dec 5, 2011 1:57:18 PM EST
mike: should be a shorting opportunity that 1259.25 area

Dec 5, 2011 2:00:12 PM EST
mike: this can go to the 1252 area if a new low has made and not quickly reversed. 1258.50-1259.25 is still important resistance here

Dec 5, 2011 2:08:38 PM EST
mike: should stay under 1257 to keep the downtrend and selling bounces going to 1252 and maybe lower now that we have some momentum

Dec 5, 2011 2:24:42 PM EST
mike: this is as far as a bounce should go if going back down. A double bottom just above the 1252.50 support

Dec 5, 2011 2:53:45 PM EST
mike: the market traded in a narrow and quiet range before the breakdown that the high, and now looks to be doing the same at low. A push over1257 that sticks can start a move up to 1260 .50 area. But another failure and a break through 1252.50 would mean another leg down. 1257 area looks to be key to avoid some more downside

Dec 5, 2011 3:07:02 PM EST
mike: Bears will be in charge as long as they stay under 1258.50 now

Dec 5, 2011 3:10:32 PM EST
mike: 1255 should be resistance on a bounce here if it's going to head back down

Dec 5, 2011 3:22:21 PM EST
mike: should see 1248.00 and maybe 1246.75 as long as 1254.50 is not exceeded here at the end of the day. Keep an eye on the NQ as it is leading this move lower

Dec 5, 2011 3:24:27 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day. I will see you here in the morning

Friday- December 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 2, 2011 9:29:13 AM EST
mike: a gap to fade. Will be back in 10 minutes

Dec 2, 2011 9:38:02 AM EST
mike: if they break under 1254 again and don't turn right back up then the 1251 level should be seen to fill the gap- 1255-1256 resistance

Dec 2, 2011 9:45:14 AM EST
mike: 1251.75 was reached so far and they should have trouble around 1254 area if going lower

Dec 2, 2011 9:50:03 AM EST
mike: they hit 1251.75 twice which is just above yesterday's high at 1251. That will need to hold on more pullback or else an early high to be in place

Dec 2, 2011 9:59:42 AM EST
mike: three lows just above yesterday's high and so far could not fill the gap. this can go for the 1257.75-1258.50 area if they hold over 1252.50

Dec 2, 2011 10:04:05 AM EST
mike: look for selling in that resistance-1254 area now support that needs to hold

Dec 2, 2011 10:16:18 AM EST
mike: this is resistance more to lock-in profit on any Long's - 1255 is now important support on a pullback

Dec 2, 2011 10:21:41 AM EST
mike: 1257 needs to hold to keep the up side intact.

Dec 2, 2011 10:27:06 AM EST
mike: 1263.25-1264.00 *possible* at 1258 not broken/ and held

Dec 2, 2011 10:29:36 AM EST
mike: 1257.25 breaks then a high it is likely in place

Dec 2, 2011 10:37:30 AM EST
mike: it doesn't look like we going to get a trend up day if 1257 is broken

Dec 2, 2011 10:43:05 AM EST
mike: it was held at 1257.50 but looks like upside losing momentum- need the NQ to break

Dec 2, 2011 10:47:24 AM EST
mike: morning high and at the one hour into trading timeframe. it's a short here using a tight stop at or just above 58.25 which is a micro resistance area

Dec 2, 2011 10:56:08 AM EST
mike: 1255.75-1255.25 is a small support- as long as that area holds the market will stay away from rolling over and giving a reversal. Right here a test of the high needs broken through, or else it is a double top pattern for a pullback

Dec 2, 2011 11:09:35 AM EST
mike: we should have a high place and go for 1251 on this move, or a double bottom attempt. 1255.50 is resistance and should be sold

Dec 2, 2011 11:25:12 AM EST
mike: that gap was filled and there is some buying at the 51 area but this shouldn't go far by the way the chart looks. After losing momentum and pulling back, that push up to see if the high could be taken out was very quickly sold. It breaks under the 1250.75 then we should see the 1247.75-1246.75 area be an important support area.

Dec 2, 2011 11:35:02 AM EST
mike: a bit of a better bounce than expected, but so far 1255.50 area has stopped the move and is still a transition area. The market is bearish underneath

Dec 2, 2011 11:43:37 AM EST
mike: if you bought put options yesterday with me we are underwater on this trade so far but am adding one third on the bounce and will keep it over the weekend-the plan for now. We made this move into the lunchtime timeframe so should get a breakdown pretty soon if it's going to roll over further with 1247.75 as first support/target

Dec 2, 2011 11:55:07 AM EST
mike: support/ target one at the 1247 .75-1246.75 area was met, still more to go it looks. The 1243-1242 area would be next. This bounce has resistance at 1250.50-1251.25 on this bounce. It should be pivotal it appears

Dec 2, 2011 11:56:10 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 20 minutes or so.

Dec 2, 2011 12:32:32 PM EST
mike: the ES has bounced around between 1247 support area and the 1251.25 resistance area. Need a solid break out of this range -still it is under pressure as long as this stays under resistance

Dec 2, 2011 1:22:39 PM EST
mike: there must be something about this area that the market isn't sure about. first though though, a recap on how we got here. A gap up opening again on the good employment numbers wasn't a huge 30 point gap up and it was sold from the opening price for almost 15 minutes before turning up. The rally barely poked over resistance that stalled out (pointed out at that time) then the try to move higher was quickly rejected in the ES made a logical drop down to logical support that the 1246.75 low. This 1251 was the gap fill level in the ES has been gyrating around this for about an hour and is now rolling over again. they can go down and test be test the low a support but if a bounce is unable to get back over that 1251 he area and hold then this could/should last for another day and drop another 15-one he 15-20 points on the ES before this move is over on the downside. If they break out of this consolidation area on the upside instead then we could go back and test the high or even a little bit higher before topping out.

Dec 2, 2011 1:49:00 PM EST
mike: per last nights update I need to leave in a few minutes here. If you are in put options he should have added to that by one third of your position size. If ES it is under 1251 high from yesterday and the gap fill level this morning, they keep over the weekend. If not then exit and will reassess Monday morning

Dec 2, 2011 1:49:24 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day and a great weekend

Thursday- December 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Dec 1, 2011 9:29:07 AM EST
mike: per last nights update early strength should be sold into. Damage done only if 1242 is broken and then held on bounce as it turns into a new resistance \ transition area

Dec 1, 2011 9:34:00 AM EST
mike: open low at 1141.75 support and that must hold now or the trends change to down

Dec 1, 2011 9:36:54 AM EST
mike: careful along- the offer good above-a short under 1244

Dec 1, 2011 9:40:03 AM EST
mike: 1239.00-1238.50 area is the first important support below and it should be seen if they hold under 1142.50 area

Dec 1, 2011 9:45:58 AM EST
mike: there shouldn't be a lot more on the upside, could get to 1148 area but that will take some work -only if that is clear to that get a chance to try for 1152 but I kind of doubt that it's seen this morning.

Dec 1, 2011 9:52:59 AM EST
mike: 1244 area is now support on a pullback. Keep an eye on the NQ is leading will hold up as long as it's not rolling over

Dec 1, 2011 10:02:55 AM EST
mike: the pullback low at 1245.75 is now key support on a pullback-1252.50-1254 area key resistance just above where we should get a reaction back down

Dec 1, 2011 10:12:07 AM EST
mike: need to stay over 1248-1247.50 on ES and the 2306 level on the NQ to avoid a potential high up here. It's okay as long as those are held up to 1252.50-1254.00 area we should be a short if it's reached and reversed or rejected

Dec 1, 2011 10:24:46 AM EST
mike: this needs to push back over 1248.75 to try to get the upside going again. Support at 1245.75 needs to hold to have a chance to bounce back over that area

Dec 1, 2011 10:38:07 AM EST
mike: 1248.75 area was rejected and same with 2308 on the NQ so they should be turning the trend may move down to 1244 would be first important support. If they get down there they must turn it back up quickly or the upside is likely over.

Dec 1, 2011 10:46:34 AM EST
mike: held at 1244.25 and now 1246.75 is a resistance that needs clear to avoid another push lower through 1244 area- 2296 area is key on the NQ

Dec 1, 2011 11:01:38 AM EST
mike: we have a good top in place at the 9:50 AM-10:10 AM turning point and the bounces have been feeble all the way down to break at 1244 area. Sellers are in charge, a bounce will be sold even if it is a decent one. Watch the 2296 area on the NQ for a potential break area there, it could be key for the whole market as it has been leading the last two days

Dec 1, 2011 11:09:18 AM EST
mike: watch the 1247.25 area for resistance on this bounce. If it can get back over 1246 again. Those are the two minor areas that should be sold into it still vulnerable and ready for a sell off from up here

Dec 1, 2011 11:17:17 AM EST
mike: the early low broken. NQ is about to take out its. 2296.. A break and hold under 2296 on the NQ should put pressure on. A bounce of about 2.50-3.00 points on the ES should be sold

Dec 1, 2011 11:26:10 AM EST
mike: the NQ finally broke along with the ES and then get a short covering counts here but that should be sold into. The 1138.50-1138.00 is support below. The 1243.00 area should be pretty good resistance if the trend down move is going to stay -if broken a better bounce

Dec 1, 2011 11:33:21 AM EST
mike: support tested and now it will take a moved back over 1242.25-1243.00 area to break the trend down action. I will be back in about 15 minutes or so

Dec 1, 2011 11:58:24 AM EST
mike: 1242.50 updated resistance was rejected twice before being cleared and now must hold or the market will head back into a downtrend

Dec 1, 2011 12:11:27 PM EST
mike: a bounce high should be in at 1143.75 level and should come down to 1240.50 at the least as long as that is not exceeded. It looks like 2304 is the key resistance there on the NQ

Dec 1, 2011 12:35:11 PM EST
julie: This is Julie - Mike is having connection issues and will be back in a couple of minutes. He had to reboot.

Dec 1, 2011 12:55:59 PM EST
mike: sorry for being away, access to this instant message page was causing a problem. Hopefully we are set now. We have a two-sided day going and this bounce should not hold- look for resistance around 1244 on a better bounce

Dec 1, 2011 1:20:09 PM EST
mike: the ES has been holding above the 1138.50 support area and is getting a bounce from down there-but it's doubtful that the bounces going to hold. There should be pretty good resistance around 1243-1244 and if they get up there and stall out it should set up for another decent pullback. Both sides have been in play so the support-if it continues to hold- should set up a quick trade on the upside however the bounces that stall out/reverse should set up the better opportunities

Dec 1, 2011 1:34:12 PM EST
mike: the ES reach the 1244 area which should offer some resistance and potential reversal but right now it will take a break back 1242.50 in order to turn this trend back down

Dec 1, 2011 1:45:11 PM EST
mike: 1245.50-1246.00 this next resistance here. Have a reverse and break 1242.50 then things will be changing back to the downside but no damage done unless or until that happens

Dec 1, 2011 2:02:46 PM EST
mike: the uptrend is still on the move and tested the 1248 area again. there is some support at the 1246 level. More important, a break of the 1244.50 level will be needed to put a dent in the up side trend, and further it will take a break of 1242.50 in order to get the market into some trouble and potentially go back to test the 1238.50 support/low of the day. it has been a two-sided action day and best to stick with the trend on the short timeframe

Dec 1, 2011 2:11:48 PM EST
mike: the way things are shaping up it might not be a bad idea to use the resistance up here to get a few put options for a swing trade on the downside. We have complacency along with an overbought market that is at a high for this leg up. The two-way movement is a sign of indecision and could lead to a sharp drop lower pretty soon

Dec 1, 2011 2:20:46 PM EST
mike: that bounced high occurred at 2 PM also, so this good tests the 42.50area to see if buyers are going to back off, or come back and try to run this up one more time

Dec 1, 2011 2:50:13 PM EST
mike: 1244 was tested for the third time up here and it is also a transition area from this morning so as long as that holds on a pullback of market will stay in decent shape. Watch 1248 for an attempt to break out and run up to tests that 1252 resistance, or fail to break out. Both areas are key late in the day as a break of either area that holds should set the tone for the last hour

Dec 1, 2011 3:11:19 PM EST
mike: 1242.50 was tested and that should be important end of day. Keep in put options overnight as we could see a break take down to to lower lows then the 1238 .50

Dec 1, 2011 3:21:34 PM EST
mike: for this to hold together and not have a "long covering" sell off late in the day we need to see the ES stay over 1242.50 and the NQ needs to stay over 2305 area. If those are not defended in the market to get a late drop. If they can hold that no damage done even though the double top made around the 1248 resistance kind kind of says the upside is limited

Dec 1, 2011 3:23:36 PM EST
mike: I need to head out. Stay with a small but position for now. have a good rest of your day. I'll see you in the morning

Wednesday- November 30, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 30, 2011 8:57:03 AM EST
mike: I will be away at an appointment until early afternoon. my apologies

Nov 30, 2011 12:51:44 PM EST
mike: just returned home and will need a few minutes to get my bearings and a look at what has happened so far. It looks like a bump up from 1234.50 is needed right here for a pullback to 1232 could happen. This move up as resistance that could be pivotal around 1237.00-1237.50 after a quick look

Nov 30, 2011 1:17:17 PM EST
mike: the ES grind it up to 1137.25 which was in the middle of that resistance and turned down. There should be a break of 1234.50 and this is going to roll over

Nov 30, 2011 1:34:08 PM EST
mike: the NQ led the way down from the bounce high and should have resistance around 2282 on this bounce. If that is not cleared them the trend will stay down

Nov 30, 2011 2:01:38 PM EST
mike: the NQ bounce to 2281 after the last post and turned back down and is still in a downtrend along with the ES. it is 2 PM when the market should try to make the move. But it's still appears that Under 1235 and 2279 on the NQ the market is still in call bounce mode

Nov 30, 2011 2:13:08 PM EST
mike: that was a good setup for a quick short. In one of my first updates after getting back I gave 1232.50-1232.00 as a support for the ES to reach and this is now an important area to hold it looks like, or quickly reverse a broken, other wise 1228 would be seen. If short keep a tight stop

Nov 30, 2011 2:21:49 PM EST
mike: top call but it looks like the ES should hold1232.50 on a pullback.

Nov 30, 2011 2:38:47 PM EST
mike: there is some resistance at 1237 area

Nov 30, 2011 2:50:10 PM EST
mike: 1234.50-1235.0 there is as far as a bounce should do if we are going to that lower late in the day. it's hard to buy a market that's up 400 Dow points until some kind of decent pullback

Nov 30, 2011 3:24:30 PM EST
mike: should pull back from the 1239 area and test the 1236 area before one more push higher

Nov 30, 2011 3:30:48 PM EST
mike: 1236.50 so far and that should be Key to stay over to avoid a drop back towards 1232 area.

Nov 30, 2011 3:42:19 PM EST
mike: 1242 should be reversed but if not there could be another 10 points to the upside before good size turnaround occurs, likely tomorrow than today

Nov 30, 2011 3:43:47 PM EST
mike: the 1238 area is now to support at the end of the day. Have a good rest of your day. I'll see you here in the morning

Tuesday- November 29, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 29, 2011 9:30:17 AM EST
mike: this should be sold off from 1197-1198 but the trend is up unless 1192 area broken this morning

Nov 29, 2011 9:48:39 AM EST
mike: I'm not feeling well this morning so there will be fewer updates until I can shake this off. As long as 1197-1198 area not broken market still can be making a high up in this area. They would have to break 1190 order to turn negative

Nov 29, 2011 10:04:27 AM EST
mike: the ES pullback 2 points on first test of 1197.00 and then consumer confidence pushed higher. Need to hold around 1197 now or else they will have a reversal

Nov 29, 2011 10:17:12 AM EST
mike: 1202 area is next. as long the 1198-1197 area hold the market will keep its uptrend

Nov 29, 2011 10:32:19 AM EST
mike: 1202.00-1202.75 resistance number two cause a small reaction to the downside and could be a high if the 1198.50 level is broken by much.

Nov 29, 2011 10:50:19 AM EST
mike: a small double top at resistance so it's a short under the 1203 level down to 1198-1197 or lower

Nov 29, 2011 11:03:22 AM EST
mike: 1198 was tested and got a feeble bounce to 1200. Need to stay over 1198 or else the action gets toppy looking

Nov 29, 2011 11:07:23 AM EST
mike: it's a short-to turn positive the ES needs to get over 1200.25-1200.75 and hold that on a pullback, not quickly reverse

Nov 29, 2011 11:11:50 AM EST
mike: 1198.50 is now the first resistance on a bounce-or a transition area if broken by much. 1195.25 is the first support below

Nov 29, 2011 11:21:26 AM EST
mike: if 1198.50 breaks now than we have another reversal down. Need to get over 1200. area to get an attempt to push higher and not fail up here

Nov 29, 2011 11:30:27 AM EST
mike: they will need to hold over 1200, not reverse which just occurred and gave quick one point drop, to make a run for the highs . This doesn't start to break down unless 1198.50 is broken again. I need to be away for about 15-20 minutes

Nov 29, 2011 11:58:26 AM EST
mike: they went up and tested a high resistance on the ES and then was sold again. This is being led by the NQ and is a short on the bounces

Nov 29, 2011 12:13:43 PM EST
mike: Key resistance at 1202.50 on the ES and also 2227 on the NQ-they both need to be cleared or the rally fail

Nov 29, 2011 12:23:00 PM EST
mike: being led by the NQ to the downside

Nov 29, 2011 12:47:49 PM EST
mike: resistance was never cleared and we had a 3.75 point pullback two 1197.75 then after a two minute bounce we finally are some volatility. 1199.50-1200.25 area is now resistance on a bounce

Nov 29, 2011 12:58:39 PM EST
mike: a small bubble bottom, but still need a push over1199.50 area

Nov 29, 2011 1:09:46 PM EST
mike: starting to roll over fairly hard now. The NQ has been a good leader on the downside- resistance at1197 and then 1198.50 1199.50 area

Nov 29, 2011 1:22:11 PM EST
mike: they could run this market up fast if there isn't something wrong out there. Three rejections of the 1202-.1203 resistance earlier makes me think there is not much on the upside

Nov 29, 2011 1:34:09 PM EST
mike: 1199.50 held the move back, 1197 area has to hold to get another push higher but will likely be sold

Nov 29, 2011 1:36:51 PM EST
mike: 1192.50 area could be seen on this leg down as long as there isn't a good bounce from around 1194.50/double bottom area

Nov 29, 2011 1:56:39 PM EST
mike: 1195.50-1196.50 area is resistance now. We could/must bounce off of 1192.50. And still it looks like the NQ is leading the ES lower, pulling it down more than it wants to do to its weakness

Nov 29, 2011 1:59:16 PM EST
mike: 1192.50 was reached and its 1195.50-1196.50 that needs clear for the market still in trends that are down

Nov 29, 2011 2:05:13 PM EST
mike: 1195.50-1196 .25 his resistance on this bounce

Nov 29, 2011 2:27:10 PM EST
mike: the ES based out at 1192 and caught a decent bid, now needs to stay over 1194 or rollover again

Nov 29, 2011 2:50:57 PM EST
mike: bounce over. 1194 needs to hold now or we can test the low. 1198-1199

Nov 29, 2011 2:54:52 PM EST
mike: 1196.25 is a resistance here that should be pivotal. If they turn down there it's a negative

Nov 29, 2011 3:18:54 PM EST
mike: a pullback should stay over 1197.75-1197.25 to keep this little up trend intact

Nov 29, 2011 3:47:46 PM EST
mike: had a good rest of your day. FYI I won't be here until the early afternoon tomorrow as I have an appointment. Take care

Monday- November 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 28, 2011 9:22:48 AM EST
mike: We should have a rally that lasts 2-3 days before another pullback comes again. This should be a two-sided day with a high, at the least a pullback high, in the first 30 minutes or so. A good pullback after that should be bought and then. We get the new home sales number released at 10 AM this morning.

Nov 28, 2011 9:41:58 AM EST
mike: 1189.50 area is now pivotal support on pullback. There should be resistance around 1192.50-1194.00 area but the market is okay unless 1189.50 area broken

Nov 28, 2011 9:54:34 AM EST
mike: If we are going to have this early strength be sold than that 1194 area should be good resistance but more important is breaking under 1190.

Nov 28, 2011 10:03:27 AM EST
mike: need to hold the 1192 level that should be pivotal

Nov 28, 2011 10:07:25 AM EST
mike: so far the ES held at 1192.00-if that's not able to hold , then expects a bounce that follows to be sold. For now no damage done in less that breaks

Nov 28, 2011 10:21:50 AM EST
mike: we have a gap and go move to start the week. 1192.50 area is the trend up support, 1194 as minors for now. -if that breaks, market starts to get top-heavy. The 2218 area on the NQ is key over there.

Nov 28, 2011 10:28:02 AM EST
mike: the pullbacks have been 2.50 points, 2.25 points, 2.50 points, and the dip to 1193.50 just 2 points. A break of that symmetry needed to change the dynamics but it's looking top-heavy

Nov 28, 2011 10:40:01 AM EST
mike: it doesn't want to break a major area around 1197- but as long as they pullback no more than 2.75 points, the trend will stay trend up. They could roll over here if not held

Nov 28, 2011 10:46:06 AM EST
mike: the pullback was 2.75 points on the ES but if this doesn't get over 1195.50 and hold then a rollover

Nov 28, 2011 10:56:54 AM EST
mike: high should be in place, upside lost its momentum for now unless the ES gets over 1195. 1192 pivotal area would be support to hold over to avoid a bigger pullback

Nov 28, 2011 11:05:26 AM EST
mike: 1192.00 was the pullback low. A move up to 1195 area needs to keep going, not be rejected, or a high likely is in for a bit

Nov 28, 2011 11:13:27 AM EST
mike: 1195 was not able to be broken and neither was 1192.00 we need a clean break of that range to get a directional move-not ideal trading action just scalps in this range

Nov 28, 2011 11:33:54 AM EST
mike: 1192 has been silence for a while and this tiny range over the last 35-40 minutes. bounce is not able to stick on the other side until now. Watch 1194.00-1193.50 for support on a pullback. A move to 1197-1198 would be sold, or at least be a key area to get over and hold. Market will be vulnerable if that support is not held

Nov 28, 2011 11:34:19 AM EST
mike: back in about 15 minutes or so

Nov 28, 2011 12:03:38 PM EST
mike: it's turned into a "sell the bounce-cover on the dip" market up here- The NQ should be watched as a leader -could be breaking down

Nov 28, 2011 12:18:17 PM EST
mike: bounces have been sold in this range but unless 1192 on the ES is a broken (and not quickly reverse back up as it has been on tests of 1192) the market will avoid a breakdown

Nov 28, 2011 12:33:21 PM EST
mike: finally got our breakdown and now 1192-1193 area is resistance on the ES and 2222.50-2223.50 area on the NQ is resistance there. Those should be shorting areas

Nov 28, 2011 1:01:17 PM EST
mike: market was unable to even get as far as the updated resistance, so far. The market will be bearish unless that is exceeded and then held. The 1187.00-1186.50 area should be support on further weakness

Nov 28, 2011 1:27:35 PM EST
mike: this pullback should stay over the 1191 area and bounce back or else the bounce will be over

Nov 28, 2011 2:02:33 PM EST
mike: we can get a bounce from around this 1189-1188 area, but don't expect the move to hold. A good bounce should be sold into again especially around 1192-1193 area is reached and the move stalls

Nov 28, 2011 2:18:28 PM EST
mike: 1191.50 area needs broken to turn the trends down again

Nov 28, 2011 2:36:06 PM EST
mike: it looks like 1191.50 is going to be pivotal here.

Nov 28, 2011 2:43:19 PM EST
mike: 1191.50 was tested and rejected again. It will take a good move over that that isn't reverse right back down to get a move back towards 1193-1194 area. a drop down to 1187.50-1186.50 possible

Nov 28, 2011 2:52:45 PM EST
mike: the support a place to lock-in profit on shorts

Nov 28, 2011 2:53:20 PM EST
mike: 1189 .50 now is resistance

Nov 28, 2011 3:10:52 PM EST
mike: the pullback low was 1186.75-at the 1187.50-1186.50 support. The bounce failed at 1189 .25 and broke to lower lows. That 1189.50is a key resistance the rest of the day

Nov 28, 2011 3:17:34 PM EST
mike: pressure will stay on the ES as long as it stays under 1186 .50

Nov 28, 2011 3:23:53 PM EST
mike: watch 1182 area for support. 1182.50-1181.50 should hold as they support otherwise we could see a drop to 1178 no later than tomorrow morning

Nov 28, 2011 3:26:53 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day

Tuesday- November 22, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 22, 2011 9:29:08 AM EST
mike: needs to stay over 1186 to stay away from one more push lower. If we do push lower it should set up a decent buying opportunity/trade on the long side

Nov 22, 2011 9:29:40 AM EST
mike: next update in about 20 minutes

Nov 22, 2011 9:49:07 AM EST
mike: a reversal back down likely in the first 20-40 minutes but it is up as long as 1191 polls

Nov 22, 2011 10:05:33 AM EST
mike: 1193 will need to be exceeded and held to get upside going. 1188 area has support that needs to be held to avoid a deeper pullback towards 1186 at least

Nov 22, 2011 10:13:47 AM EST
mike: 1188 was reversed and now is key here in the early going. 1191 though as important to get over and hold to get out of potential trouble yet this morning

Nov 22, 2011 10:28:05 AM EST
mike: 1190.25 should be pivotal this morning. Needs held on a pullback or else the market will stay two-sided. If it's held then we could go for a test or break of the high

Nov 22, 2011 10:52:17 AM EST
mike: a test of 1180.50 on the ES is in the cards unless the ES can get over the 1288-1289 area Is exceeded instead

Nov 22, 2011 11:01:38 AM EST
mike: 1181.50 low so far but as long as that ES doesn't get over 1186 and hold me should see a lower low

Nov 22, 2011 11:13:37 AM EST
mike: resistance on this bounce is at 1185.75 then at 1187-which appears to be key

Nov 22, 2011 11:26:43 AM EST
mike: yesterday's low was tested and now must get the ES over 1185 to get out of this trouble. 1178-1177 area is next below if the market breaks yesterday's lows decisively

Nov 22, 2011 11:31:25 AM EST
mike: even though yesterday's low was tested and the market turned up-it is not out of trouble unless 1185 exceeded and held-that's needed to change trend

Nov 22, 2011 11:39:41 AM EST
mike: a bounce of more than 3.50 points on the ES has needed to change the dynamics. I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so

Nov 22, 2011 11:52:09 AM EST
mike: the ES needs to get over 1182.50-1183.00 area in order to turn the trend. And possibly have an early lunch time low in place. The1185 area would be next if the 1183 level is exceeded. Otherwise this stays in trend down mode

Nov 22, 2011 11:52:47 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 20-25 minutes or so. My apologies

Nov 22, 2011 12:25:03 PM EST
mike: 1193 is a good resistance area if reached again. The 1188 has now support again that needs to hold to avoid a decent pullback here

Nov 22, 2011 12:49:36 PM EST
mike: things have really turn slow but it looks like 1190 as a barrier that needs cleared to avoid another push lower towards 1186 or so. If 1190 is cleared and and not quickly reverse then a move up to 1193 could occur

Nov 22, 2011 1:03:27 PM EST
mike: if 1193 is not reacted then move towards 1196-1197 would be possible. 1190- 1189 area is support that needs to hold if they pullback

Nov 22, 2011 1:20:31 PM EST
mike: this can go for 1197-1198 area has gone as 1192.50 area is not broken

Nov 22, 2011 1:35:40 PM EST
mike: the next bounce up should be sold into. key support is at 1189.50 which must hold

Nov 22, 2011 1:47:17 PM EST
mike: that next pop up close sold at 1194 and took out the prior low at 1192 and now a trip back to 1189.50 is "must hold" or we could fall down to 1188 or lower

Nov 22, 2011 2:05:31 PM EST
mike: 1188 just about met. Resistance is now at 1190.25-1191.00 area

Nov 22, 2011 2:16:50 PM EST
mike: 1191 was rejected but if 1189.50 can hold we can see one more push to the upside before the market gets sold off again

Nov 22, 2011 2:41:14 PM EST
mike: we have a downtrend intact. That 1189.50 level has now a key resistance to get over and hold. That would break the downtrend and give us one more push to the upside that I expect to fail especially if 1191 is reached in the move runs out of gas

Nov 22, 2011 2:53:59 PM EST
mike: 1189.50 was rejected again. The market is acting tired but must get over that 1189.50 to get a bit of a better bounce towards 1191... But stays in trouble now under 1189.50

Nov 22, 2011 3:15:40 PM EST
mike: it won't be a surprise if we go back to test the 1180 area because the NQ has finally joined in with the weakness. It will take a hold under 1186.50 to have a chance. if that is taken out on a bounce, then they could make another go four 1189.50. In any case, under 1186.50 it looks like we should Stay with that side until we get down there to 1180.50 or to the 1178-1177 area.

Nov 22, 2011 3:17:58 PM EST
mike: 1186 .50 was rejected on the first test, so that downdraft could still occur. Have a good rest of your day and I will "see" you here in the morning

Monday- November 21, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 21, 2011 9:31:20 AM EST
mike: it's going to be a sell the bounce - there should be some short covering bounces also. The ES has taken out the key support high had, and I didn't do numbers lower than here but that's support is around 1188 and then 1182 if things get ugly. The 1202 area is the first decent resistance

Nov 21, 2011 9:43:19 AM EST
mike: 1188 his small support, market is vulnerable under 1198 area

Nov 21, 2011 9:52:15 AM EST
mike: the NQ is leading again and stays in a downtrend under 2212-it's the 1293 area on the ES

Nov 21, 2011 9:56:58 AM EST
mike: ES stays in a stair step downtrend unless there is a bounce of more than 3.50 points and not quickly reversed. That's currently 1192.50

Nov 21, 2011 10:08:24 AM EST
mike: 1189.50-1190.50 is resistance now that needs clearing and then held on a pullback to change the early trend. Otherwise 1282 could be seen today

Nov 21, 2011 10:08:47 AM EST
mike: back in 10 minutes

Nov 21, 2011 10:22:19 AM EST
mike: first decent bounce started at the right time frame but failed. This is under pressure unless the 1192-1193 zone is is exceeded and then held on a dip.

Nov 21, 2011 10:43:55 AM EST
mike: still it is a trend down

Nov 21, 2011 10:45:07 AM EST
mike: unless they take out 1190 and hold that on a pullback. Need to see a move up with some gusto for this couldn't go for 1182 area

Nov 21, 2011 10:58:25 AM EST
mike: 1182 still as possible. They must bounce pretty good off of that area and have the NQ rally back well also on the market will still be in trouble. 1188 area is a resistance now

Nov 21, 2011 11:04:07 AM EST
mike: 1182 tested-1186 is trend down resistance now on a bounce. 1178 area would be next support

Nov 21, 2011 11:14:49 AM EST
mike: the ES turned up from 1181.50-just under the key support-and a bounce almost reached resistance at 1186. A pullback should hold 1184 are to keep that has a low

Nov 21, 2011 11:26:31 AM EST
mike: 1184 days to hold- still it is a negative trading under 1187-1188

Nov 21, 2011 11:32:27 AM EST
mike: the bounces have no good strength to keep pushing higher so far. If they break down to test the low, it will need to be reversed almost immediately the way this has acting today

Nov 21, 2011 11:43:39 AM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NQ as it is weaker and could pull that ES to a new

Nov 21, 2011 11:58:20 AM EST
mike: bounces are still being sold as soon as the move up stalls out and begins to go sideways for a minute or so. 1183 needs to hold on a pullback-1186 is resistance that needs exceeded and held to start a decent move higher. Otherwise it is another failed bounce

Nov 21, 2011 12:09:39 PM EST
mike: it looks like it's in slow motion but at a key spot here. If this stays under 1185.50 we can go to 1183 and maybe a bit lower.

Nov 21, 2011 12:20:16 PM EST
mike: pullbacks should hold the 1184.00-1183.50 area now or else this rolls over. It would set up one more test of 1182 or maybe the lows. Good resistance or at least key at 1187-1188

Nov 21, 2011 12:35:23 PM EST
mike: should fail at under 1185 if going to get another pullback here

Nov 21, 2011 12:53:44 PM EST
mike: a tough call but the market is very oversold when using today's data-it was in a minor oversold condition come into the day. We have a double bottom at a major support around 1185, S&P 500 cash and just under the 1282 downside target/support early in the day. On the other side the ES failed on bounces of just six points so far. A good rally would be double digits on the ES at least. Anyhow, the market is holding on the pullbacks so as long as 1184 holds the market will some trouble. A push through 1187 that holds is needed to get a short covering bounce going

Nov 21, 2011 1:06:53 PM EST
mike: there was a good buying at 1184 and now has long as that holds we could get a breakout on the upside-especially if the NQ keeps its strength.

Nov 21, 2011 1:17:04 PM EST
mike: 1186.50 area is now support that needs to hold to keep the upside intact

Nov 21, 2011 1:26:37 PM EST
mike: the ES held at 1186.75 and the trend stayed up and we got to 1189.00 so far. Pretty soon we should see some pullback, and 1186 .50 is a transition area that will need to hold or be reversed, or else the trends will then turn back down

Nov 21, 2011 1:35:10 PM EST
mike: should have afternoon high in place and it's possible a bounce here but it will set up a short on a bounce to a test of/or a lower high that stalls out or shows rejection

Nov 21, 2011 2:02:40 PM EST
mike: a bouncer to 1185 area should be sold now if still weak

Nov 21, 2011 2:14:58 PM EST
mike: when they made it through 1185 a squeeze hire kicked in. This could go to 1191-1192 area have it gets one more run higher before there is a reversal.

Nov 21, 2011 2:19:49 PM EST
mike: 1192 reversed and now 1187 is support on a pullback

Nov 21, 2011 2:39:16 PM EST
mike: pullbacks held at 1188.75 and that is a key support. if th double top is taken out then 1194 could be seen but that should be about as far as they go

Nov 21, 2011 2:51:10 PM EST
mike: 1194 just missed and now 1191 needs to hold to keep uptrend

Nov 21, 2011 3:02:37 PM EST
mike: 1191 was broken and so far held. They need to get back over 1191 or the market still is vulnerable

Nov 21, 2011 3:25:01 PM EST
mike: there should be a pullback from 1194 to around 1190. 1190 will need to hold to not see a late drop

Nov 21, 2011 3:28:01 PM EST
mike: they got over 1194 so 1196 area should be as far as this goes before a reversal back towards 1192 .50 or thereabouts

Nov 21, 2011 3:28:46 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day. I'll see you in the morning

Wednesday- November 16, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 16, 2011 9:30:00 AM EST
mike: a short covering bounce will set up a short when the move stalls out, shouldn't up too much. Yesterday's low should be taken out

Nov 16, 2011 9:43:41 AM EST
mike: yesterday's low was taken out by just a little bit. This bounce should having trouble up here near 1247.

Nov 16, 2011 9:47:34 AM EST
mike: the ES stall out just under 1247. 1243.50 is support that will need to hold to keep the short covering bounce going or else a high in place for now

Nov 16, 2011 9:55:26 AM EST
mike: they held at 1241.75 and is now a key support this morning. This move should fizzle out up here no farther than 1250 area at appears

Nov 16, 2011 9:59:46 AM EST
mike: that should be the early bounce high made 26 minutes into trading if they can push under 1245 and not turn right back up

Nov 16, 2011 10:02:58 AM EST
mike: little double top like yesterday so that should be a decent high for now

Nov 16, 2011 10:10:10 AM EST
mike: 1243.50 updated support needs to hold-it shouldn't-but if so a test of the high that stalls is still a good short

Nov 16, 2011 10:24:40 AM EST
mike: the ES reached 1243.00 on the last pullback and turned up and bounce to test the failed so far. 1243 needs broken now to put some pressure on if we are going to see 1238 on this move down

Nov 16, 2011 10:37:07 AM EST
mike: stay with shorts under the 1246.50-1247.50 area-a move down to test and 1240.50 should be tested and maybe go for 1238 Before a decent buying can come in

Nov 16, 2011 10:42:37 AM EST
mike: 1246.25 was the bounce high so far and that needs clear to push towards 1249-1250

Nov 16, 2011 10:48:01 AM EST
mike: 1249 reached, 1250.50 is as far as a countertrend bounces should go. 1246 should be support now

Nov 16, 2011 10:56:47 AM EST
mike: 1250.50 was reached and now 1253 would be next if no turn down from this area. 1248 is now support

Nov 16, 2011 11:08:14 AM EST
mike: 1253 reached. It should back off a bit but no damage done unless 1251 is broken. 1249. Even more important

Nov 16, 2011 11:20:45 AM EST
mike: the ES stopped at yesterday's closing range so far and should turn trends if 1251 breaks .

Nov 16, 2011 11:31:01 AM EST
mike: I have to be away for a bit as we have a minor emergency with Julie. Should have a high in place if 1251 not held. I'll be back ASAP

Nov 16, 2011 12:02:55 PM EST
mike: 1251 was broken and then it turned into resistance on a bounce. That should be pivotal resistance now-needs to be cleared and held to get out of this downtrend

Nov 16, 2011 12:18:00 PM EST
mike: the ES 1249.50 area will need cleared and held here to try to turn the trends up.if it is clear in a pullback to 1249 gets turned up trade on the long side with a tight stop. Not great action since reversal at yesterday's closing range

Nov 16, 2011 12:27:01 PM EST
mike: 1249.50it is important here-we get another push to lower if we stay under that

Nov 16, 2011 12:27:55 PM EST
mike: 2352 is so low on the NQ to watch-

Nov 16, 2011 12:38:44 PM EST
mike: breakout to the upside should make a decent run up-1249.50 is solid support now for the market to avoid trouble

Nov 16, 2011 12:48:40 PM EST
mike: that pullback held at 1250.25 and between 1250.25 and 1249.50 that area needs to hold or the next bounce will fail. they would need to get over 1252.50 and hold

Nov 16, 2011 12:58:35 PM EST
mike: the pullback was a little more than we should have been to have a good bounce stick so look for a decent pullback after this current move up runs out of steam I've especially near 1250.54 a tiny bit higher. I'll be back in about 10 minutes or so

Nov 16, 2011 1:32:32 PM EST
mike: 1257 is possible on this move up but 1253.50 to support it needs to the held. 1255 is a minor resistance

Nov 16, 2011 1:48:07 PM EST
mike: they went down to 1253.25 but turn right back up and are at that 1257 level with the old 1258 area Just above. If long book profits, a pullback to 1254.75 or a bit lower is possible

Nov 16, 2011 2:08:36 PM EST
mike: a hectic day here-sorry for being away. we have a rejection of the 1258 area again. the 1254.75 level was barely taken out but market looks like it stopped up here in a pullback coming. Might be one more test of the high but thereafter should pull back back now

Nov 16, 2011 2:12:59 PM EST
mike: a drop down to either 1252.50 or 1250 area is likely here

Nov 16, 2011 2:33:56 PM EST
mike: a short under 1255.50 bounce high-could go to 1252 or the 1250 If symmetry holds

Nov 16, 2011 2:53:14 PM EST
mike: 1250 area reached. A bounce should not take out 1252.50 and hold now

Nov 16, 2011 3:00:26 PM EST
mike: too much going on here today. Hope you had a good trading day in any case. I am cutting out. Have a good rest of your day. I'll see you here tomorrow morning most likely a bit after the open. Take care

Tuesday- November 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 15, 2011 9:28:55 AM EST
mike: first pullback should hold over 1242 and get turned up with shorts

Nov 15, 2011 9:38:36 AM EST
mike: shorts cover - this bounce should fail to take out 1252 area and hold. 1247 area support

Nov 15, 2011 9:49:24 AM EST
mike: the ES should turn down here from under 1254- will reverse only on a break of 1248

Nov 15, 2011 9:52:43 AM EST
mike: 1250 needs to hold or an early high can be in place-

Nov 15, 2011 10:00:19 AM EST
mike: 1254 is resistance to be aware of- need to clear that or 1250 gets broken and maybe 1248

Nov 15, 2011 10:05:45 AM EST
mike: the ES made a double top just under the 1254 resistance and broke the stair step up pattern so a high in the first 20-40 minutes in place likely to the patterns of late-

Nov 15, 2011 10:13:54 AM EST
mike: the ES would need to get back over 1250 and hold over that to get out of trouble-it is at 2344 on the NQ

Nov 15, 2011 10:27:14 AM EST
mike: it looks like1248 should pivotal now-needs clear and held-the NQ has been a leader again this morning and has firmed up some

Nov 15, 2011 10:33:13 AM EST
mike: for now the market is bullish as long as 1248 is held

Nov 15, 2011 10:39:13 AM EST
mike: still look for resistance up at 1252-1253 area on the ES- that should be strong and also important area for the afternoon action

Nov 15, 2011 10:49:56 AM EST
mike: market is trying to make up its mind which direction to make a break out. There is a double top at initial resistance at the1253.50-1254.00 area to clear on the upside in the 1247.50 on the downside. Since the high was made about 25 minutes into trading and should be taken seriously but just don't overstay short side unless a breakdown

Nov 15, 2011 10:53:38 AM EST
mike: 1248 pullback low so far but it looks like pressure on under 1250 right now

Nov 15, 2011 11:02:23 AM EST
mike: pressure on under1248-and break the 1245.50-1245.00 area would break the trading range on the downside and head towards 1242 area

Nov 15, 2011 11:03:07 AM EST
mike: I'll be back in about 15 minutes or so

Nov 15, 2011 11:36:23 AM EST
mike: 1242 area tested and that needs to hold or we could still see 1238 area on this leg down. 1246 area has resistance now

Nov 15, 2011 11:55:14 AM EST
mike: if they push over 1245.50 and can't hold, then we could get a better bounce up to 47.25 or a bit higher than for coming back now again. But that is key resistance here-1245.50

Nov 15, 2011 12:03:07 PM EST
mike: not sure what caused that run up other than shorts covering however it looks like it low is in place in buying a pullback in order now. 1245 area should be good support

Nov 15, 2011 12:30:26 PM EST
mike: a pretty powerful move off of the 1242 area (1241.75 low) with good momentum. A pullback to around 1248.50 area should hold now to keep this going

Nov 15, 2011 1:00:16 PM EST
mike: keep an eye on the 1257.50-1258.50 area for resistance.1253-1252.50 area is support that needs to hold

Nov 15, 2011 1:04:40 PM EST
mike: a pullback off of a high should be no more than 3.00-3.50 points on the ES now to keep this upside momentum. Buy the dips until something changes. Any shorts should be quick stops now

Nov 15, 2011 1:08:38 PM EST
mike: 1254.25 area needs to hold now or things can change since we had a reaction from the 1258 area

Nov 15, 2011 1:19:29 PM EST
mike: that 1254.50 low his about as far as this pullback should go without changing the trends. this 1258 area should be hard to get through

Nov 15, 2011 1:45:30 PM EST
mike: the 1254.25 support that was given was the exact low on the pullback and now 1258.00-1258.50 West push through. Now 1256.25 is trend up support

Nov 15, 2011 2:11:02 PM EST
mike: the market is hanging in there right now but needs to stay over 1257 to stay real strong but go no further than 1256.25 at the very lowest now. We did see 1262 in this and push higher one more time-must stay over 1257 to do so I think

Nov 15, 2011 2:18:29 PM EST
mike: the new high was sold so now 1257 needs to hold who are the trend aborts

Nov 15, 2011 2:24:01 PM EST
mike: 125450- 1254.00 to be in the cards

Nov 15, 2011 2:25:49 PM EST
mike: 1258 will need to be clear/held to get a strong uptrend intact

Nov 15, 2011 2:55:58 PM EST
mike: the ES kind of got stuck between 1258 and 1256. as long as1256.50 is held the market avoids a late drop to at least 1252 area. if 1258 has held we could see 1262-1263 if there is not a trouble top made at 1260.25

Nov 15, 2011 3:00:45 PM EST
mike: it's holding over 1258 and as long as that isn't broken a chance to put together another push higher

Nov 15, 2011 3:04:45 PM EST
mike: the ES that its push higher

Nov 15, 2011 3:06:54 PM EST
mike: would look for either a reversal or rejection from around 1263 to set up a short the last 30 minutes. If no sign of a turn then the move could run into the close

Nov 15, 2011 3:28:52 PM EST
mike: this only runs into trouble if 1259 is broken and not quickly reversed. run up to 1263.75 area is a possibility

Nov 15, 2011 3:30:50 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of the day-how see you here tomorrow morning shortly after they open

Thursday- November 10, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 10, 2011 9:30:43 AM EST
mike: another big emotional open-good resistance around 1245 on ES and 2343 area on NQ

Nov 10, 2011 9:35:53 AM EST
mike: the NQ broke down first and should be a later on downside

Nov 10, 2011 9:38:19 AM EST
mike: small support at 1236.50-I'll stay with NQ

Nov 10, 2011 9:42:01 AM EST
mike: the 1240.50 area should be pivotal level

Nov 10, 2011 9:43:01 AM EST
mike: .NQ still the better trade on short side

Nov 10, 2011 9:48:58 AM EST
mike: 1238 is now key support for the morning. If broken and not quickly reverse them down to 1236.50 and maybe to 1233.50-1242 is the good resistance that must be cleared/held

Nov 10, 2011 9:55:35 AM EST
mike: 1236.50 reach and 1233.50 will be next as long as this has the NQ pushing lower

Nov 10, 2011 10:01:56 AM EST
mike: 1233 .50 reach so far-1238 now his resistance on a bounce-1128.50-1127 .50 is the next support

Nov 10, 2011 10:04:56 AM EST
mike: Key tests here-the turns have been coming about 30 minutes into the day and that will make the low here in important hold or things can be changing

Nov 10, 2011 10:11:08 AM EST
mike: 1238 rejected on the first test-we had a low support about 30 minutes into the trading day and this is the first bounce to test this recent pattern. Unless 1238 gets cleared and held the market is still vulnerable

Nov 10, 2011 10:20:35 AM EST
mike: first attempt to make a bottom failed then this still needs to get the NQ turned up by getting of 2312-2313 and also the ES needs to get back over 1234 and hold that on a pullback. 1228.50-1227 .50 next support on a push down

Nov 10, 2011 10:33:39 AM EST
mike: 1228 support area tested and broken- this is still bearish unless 1233 area exceeded/held-1223 low area from yesterday is the key support and maybe a magnet on the downside

Nov 10, 2011 10:44:23 AM EST
mike: the two deep pullbacks on Monday and Tuesday 17 points and 19.50 point an from there they made a bottoming pattern around noon before turning up. So far we have a 17 point drop off of the 1243.00 early high but no bottoming pattern here. Anyhow, a move over 1233 should take some pressure off-still a vulnerable market unless that occurs but not a time to be very aggressive on the short side down here

Nov 10, 2011 11:18:04 AM EST
mike: sorry, lost connection. a pullback needs to stay over 1230 -now

Nov 10, 2011 11:20:35 AM EST
mike: still looks like a short under 1233 -that looks like pivotal resistance

Nov 10, 2011 11:35:27 AM EST
mike: three tests of 1233 were rejected, 1230 to support it needs to hold to avoid going to 1228 area-if it's pushed through 1233 and holds then 1236 might be reached

Nov 10, 2011 11:43:21 AM EST
mike: still has a chance to get to 1236.50 but should be some resistance there or around 1238

Nov 10, 2011 11:47:23 AM EST
mike: support should be at 1233 area - if not held then 1230 would be next and is an important support area the rest of the afternoon.

Nov 10, 2011 12:00:33 PM EST
mike: the drop off of the high too low was 18.50 points on the ES- right about in the middle of the two other big drops from the early high this week and was also close to a test of yesterday's low and now back in bullish mode. If this plays out like the other two days then move up would be 20-22 points off of a low. That will only happen or have a chance if the 1235 area and hold

Nov 10, 2011 12:01:54 PM EST
mike: if that breaks, trends and rollover and go to test 1233. I will be back in about 10 minutes or so

Nov 10, 2011 12:28:47 PM EST
mike: market acting tired and a pop-up should be a short list stops around 1239-1237-1238 area is a good resistance

Nov 10, 2011 12:33:50 PM EST
mike: the NQ is back to being the weak link and should lead the ES on the downside. It has resistance at 2306 and the ES has resistance around 1235

Nov 10, 2011 12:51:42 PM EST
mike: watch 1236 for potential turn back down

Nov 10, 2011 12:55:49 PM EST
mike: this move will stay intact as long as 1234.50 area is held-not a move to fade yet

Nov 10, 2011 1:07:51 PM EST
mike: should be a hit here that the market is still range bound

Nov 10, 2011 1:09:14 PM EST
mike: 1234.50 area would be next if 1236 cannot hold

Nov 10, 2011 1:13:35 PM EST
mike: the market is starting to act a bit like yesterday, so look for a pullback to hold around 1238.00-1237.50 area now

Nov 10, 2011 1:17:49 PM EST
mike: and move up to the 1246-1247 area would be 22 points off of the low and about equal to the biggest bounce we had on Monday and Tuesday reversals back up. That symmetry held on the downside and should be someone important on the upside also

Nov 10, 2011 1:26:47 PM EST
mike: 1241-1240 needs to hold or we can go back to 1238-1237.

Nov 10, 2011 1:39:28 PM EST
mike: 1240.25 held on the first pullback-not it is important-like a pullbacks up here

Nov 10, 2011 1:52:51 PM EST
mike: market acting a bit top-heavy and had a almost 20 point run-up of the low. At 1244 should be a high but if exceeded then we could still see the 1246-1247 area before the top is made. In any case look for another bounce from this 1237-1236 area and then a reversal on a test of either 1243- 1244 area or from the 1247 1248 area

Nov 10, 2011 2:01:37 PM EST
mike: if the market is going to roll over again it should come from here around 1242

Nov 10, 2011 2:11:23 PM EST
mike: watch for support on this drop at around 1234 area and a decent bounce attempt should follow or else the market is in bad shape again.

Nov 10, 2011 2:20:11 PM EST
mike: if they pop up to 1240.50-1241.00 area and show some rejection, look for another pullbacks two 1237. Or lower

Nov 10, 2011 2:28:48 PM EST
mike: as long as bounces stay under 1240.50 area market is a short. It takes a break and hold over that area to get the market of potential trouble this afternoon

Nov 10, 2011 2:55:37 PM EST
mike: keep an eye on at 1240.50 area this afternoon. Unless that is exceeded the market is vulnerable to more sell off this afternoon. If instead 1240.50 is broken and a chance to go to 1244 or higher is possible

Nov 10, 2011 2:56:11 PM EST
mike: I need to be away the rest of the afternoon. I'll see you here in the morning. Have a great rest of the day

Tuesday- November 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 8, 2011 9:29:41 AM EST
mike: we have yet another big up open and will be sold- 1268 resistance

Nov 8, 2011 9:49:04 AM EST
mike: it's a sell around the 1266 Area with tight stop or buy down around 1259-1258

Nov 8, 2011 9:51:01 AM EST
mike: a better short as it looks like an early high to be in place

Nov 8, 2011 10:04:12 AM EST
mike: I will be away for part of the morning - just not sure exactly when. Right now to there will be no reversal in less 1264 area is broken. Resistance here at 1268 it is important -if not cleared then 1264 could be tested

Nov 8, 2011 10:09:11 AM EST
mike: the ES tested 1264 and held so for 1267.75-1268.50 is big resistance this morning

Nov 8, 2011 10:19:40 AM EST
mike: don't expect this bounce to hold-1264.50 that is pivotal-it needs to be clear / held

Nov 8, 2011 10:33:10 AM EST
mike: the last bounce failed at 1264.25 and fell quickly to 1256-bounces should be sold from 1261-1262. Now if they get that far and stall or reverse. I need to be gone for 30 minutes my apologies

Nov 8, 2011 11:05:49 AM EST
mike: the ES moved up to 1262.00 and then it dropped 4.50 points to 1257.50-then a bounce back to 1261.00 failed to times-the Bears are in charge under the 1261-1262 zone

Nov 8, 2011 11:17:44 AM EST
mike: 1257 area now has resistance on a bounce. 1251.50. Should be a key support to avoid going to 1248 or lower

Nov 8, 2011 11:24:01 AM EST
mike: 1252.00-1251.50 on the ES - and the 2359.00-2358.00 area on the NQ our initial support and need to hold will allow him down through the next support around 1248

Nov 8, 2011 11:25:40 AM EST
mike: that said the market is still under pressure as long as the ES stays under 1254

Nov 8, 2011 11:27:53 AM EST
mike: 1251.50 low so far. Have 1254 has exceeded then a move up to 1256 as possible

Nov 8, 2011 11:49:16 AM EST
mike: both the ES and the NQ tag their initial support areas and bounce back tentative. 1254 level now needs to hold

Nov 8, 2011 12:31:19 PM EST
mike: we should get a pullback from up here but the market is back to acting strong again. A pullback should hold 1254 on the ES in the market is going to stay in good shape

Nov 8, 2011 1:10:39 PM EST
mike: the ES, and more so the NQ, were in rising wedge patterns but on the drop down to 1255 on the ES they refuse to follow through and test/break the 1251.50 low of the day. They have tested the 1259.00-1259.50 area three times now and back of so we could still drop down to tests that low, but will need to slice through 1255 easily instead of quickly reversed right back up

Nov 8, 2011 1:12:31 PM EST
mike: for now the market is a short on bounces that stop at the 1258-1259 area

Nov 8, 2011 1:28:02 PM EST
mike: 1255 was broken but then quickly reverse back up and we are at the 1258-1259 zone-if no reversal down through 1258 then we could see 1261-1262 area

Nov 8, 2011 1:28:59 PM EST
mike: I need to be away for about 30 minutes again, back around 2 PM hopefully. My apologies, it's one of those days...

Nov 8, 2011 2:07:49 PM EST
mike: it's tempting to short up here, however the rallies have been vicious and the pullbacks haven't yielded a whole lot.

Nov 8, 2011 2:08:53 PM EST
mike: a short under 1266 might be okay, but a test of the 1262-1261 area that holds should set up a bounce of some sort of things haven't changed

Nov 8, 2011 2:29:28 PM EST
mike: third time up here, need to push through1268 .50 to bring in more short covering and give a run towards 1273 area

Nov 8, 2011 2:31:28 PM EST
mike: 1266.50 is now supported that needs to hold, and 1263.50 area is the trend up support this afternoon

Nov 8, 2011 3:19:20 PM EST
mike: the ES stayed in a four point range for almost an hour and now is making higher highs. The market has been buying on every dip so as long as the 1267 area is held the market should avoid trouble and possibly push on up towards 1272.25-1273.00 before this encounters any kind of resistance. Even then be careful of your trying to short has has had momentum on every push higher today

 

Monday - November 7, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 7, 2011 9:22:52 AM EST
mike: 1243 area was bought an hour ago-that's the key area on the first pullback. 1252-1253 first good resistance

Nov 7, 2011 9:41:09 AM EST
mike: 1254 rejected- 1250.50 would need to break to roll over- 1247.50 is the trend support

Nov 7, 2011 9:47:22 AM EST
mike: 1250.50 was held by half a point -1253 is now support that needs to hold on a pullback

Nov 7, 2011 9:55:32 AM EST
mike: 1253 acted as support by holding- but this pop-up should fail by 10:05 AM at the latest or around 1257-1258 if going to have a decent drop today

Nov 7, 2011 10:00:46 AM EST
mike: a bounce is a short now- 1250.50-1249.50 should be keys on a pullback

Nov 7, 2011 10:05:41 AM EST
mike: the bounce back to1254.25 was sold that should be a high in place at 1256.00-a great 1247.50 area should put pressure on

Nov 7, 2011 10:21:01 AM EST
mike: 1253 area rejected again-the NQ was getting a bit weaker and should lead any downside move that might break at 1247 support-would open the door for a test of 1243-1242 area

Nov 7, 2011 10:33:50 AM EST
mike: holding under 1249 on the ES and 2346 on the NQ should keep pressure on- if those are clear a bounce shouldn't be more than 4.25 points of the low on the ES if going to hold the down trend

Nov 7, 2011 10:40:43 AM EST
mike: very weak market after the high just before 10 AM. a low made at the 1243.75 support area so far, a break of that gets 1238 as the next key support area. 1249 and is now resistance on a bounce

Nov 7, 2011 10:53:55 AM EST
mike: this attempt to hold the 1243 area needs to get a boost and move over 1248 soon or else go towards 1238

Nov 7, 2011 11:05:35 AM EST
mike: might have a low in place if a move over 1245.75 that is not easily rejected

Nov 7, 2011 11:15:27 AM EST
mike: 1246.75 was cleared so that low at 1243.50-even more important at 1241.50- is a trend down support that needs to hold for a lunchtime low. They could move on up to 1249-1250 area on a decent bounce but likely not stick-if the market is still in weak hands

Nov 7, 2011 11:22:48 AM EST
mike: unable to hold gains, if no double bottom is made then the ES goes for 1138 before any bounce. a bounce will be sold into

Nov 7, 2011 11:28:00 AM EST
mike: my fault for not seeing this but 1247.00 was the bounce high and resistance was 1246.75-so the trend down move stays in force under 1247.00-bears in charge in less that is broken-

Nov 7, 2011 11:34:42 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for 10 or 15 minutes 1244.55-1245.50 resistance on bounce

Nov 7, 2011 11:56:37 AM EST
mike: as long as the ES stays under 1245.25-1245.50 area the downside symmetry will stay intact to keep this in down mode

Nov 7, 2011 12:15:15 PM EST
mike: a very sloppy trading range with that 1245 .25 not exceeded yet-in fact it was rejected. The market stays in "sell bounces" as long as that resistance has not exceeded

Nov 7, 2011 12:20:41 PM EST
mike: fixed support at 1239.00-1238.50 and a broken they can go for 1232 area. if they bounce up to 1241 they should be be sold

Nov 7, 2011 12:28:26 PM EST
mike: from here at 1237.50 low that ES would need to get over 1242.50 area

Nov 7, 2011 12:44:47 PM EST
mike: it should stop around the 1241 level to keep the downtrend intact. A. cluster of resistance there so it should be key

Nov 7, 2011 1:18:27 PM EST
mike: look for a pullback to the 1240.50 area to hold on a pullback-as the market has turned bullish. 1244.25 area is a small resistance to look for a pullback from

Nov 7, 2011 1:37:52 PM EST
mike: it looks like 1242 days to hold or they'll drop down to 1240.50 to see ifthe breakout area can hold

Nov 7, 2011 1:58:12 PM EST
mike: not sure the reason for the big move out of the blue, but this next pullback holds the 1244 area is should set up a good buying opportunity

Nov 7, 2011 2:13:04 PM EST
mike: 1248.00-1247.50 area now is support that needs to hold

Nov 7, 2011 2:14:38 PM EST
mike: 1254.75 is a good resistance on another pop-up

Nov 7, 2011 2:21:45 PM EST
mike: the pullbacks held at 1247.75 and that it is a important level to stay over

Nov 7, 2011 2:49:13 PM EST
mike: the ES has been stuck between 1251.50 on top and 1249.00 on the bottom. If 1251.50 is pushed through then we should go towards the 1256 and early high. If instead 1249 is broken and not quickly reversed then a drive towards the 1243 area could be in the cards.

Nov 7, 2011 3:14:13 PM EST
mike: 1256 target was met and now 1252 area needs to hold as it is a transition area and also the third breakout area on this rally

Nov 7, 2011 3:21:34 PM EST
mike: double top and place and it doesn't look good if 1252.50-1252.00 area broken and not quickly reverse back up as that is the transition area

Nov 7, 2011 3:35:06 PM EST
mike: they took out 1252 but turned right back up-will need to hold under that to have

Nov 7, 2011 3:36:49 PM EST
mike: have a good rest of your day! See you here tomorrow morning.

Thursday - November 03, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Nov 3, 2011 9:30 mike: another event outside our borders to cause a big opening. A better sell for a pullback

Nov 3, 2011 9:35 mike: it's a short under 1248 for now

Nov 3, 2011 9:36 mike: 1244 first small support

Nov 3, 2011 9:41 mike: 1244.25 lo so far- will need to stay over that or could drop down to 1242 which should be key support this morning

Nov 3, 2011 9:43 mike: watch the NQ and it's 2336 area for a good resistance, market vulnerable unless that is clear

Nov 3, 2011 9:52 mike: as long as the ES stays under 1245 the market will be under pressure, 1138 and 1135 are the support levels, 1135 is the key support

Nov 3, 2011 9:53 mike: 1241 resistance on this bounce

Nov 3, 2011 10:01 mike: the 1241 resistance was sold and they pushed down to 1236.25-a move into the 1235-1234 would need to hold as a fell of the gap

Nov 3, 2011 10:10 mike: oftentimes a gap day will be a trend day. The ES dropped 18 points from its opening high so a bounce of to 1236-1237 area possible, but the market should have trouble holding gains the way this looks

Nov 3, 2011 10:23 mike: watch the 1240-1241 For resistance here, stalling out a bit and 1236 needs held on the next pullback

Nov 3, 2011 10:29 mike: pullback held at 36.25 and now both of the pullback are 3.25 points-the 1236 is a transition area now

Nov 3, 2011 10:38 mike: that should be a top area-the market is a bit nervous up here and would need to get over 1240 and hold that on a pullback-otherwise the 1247.50-1248.50 area which is strong resistance won't be seen. On the downside 1236 meets broken to get a reversal

Nov 3, 2011 10:56 mike: I was wrong about a top at 1240 area- was another three-point pullback and then 1240 was blown through and they just missed the 1247.50-1248.50 area so far. Last pullback was 3.75 points so the ES needs to continue to hold on those small pullback to keep pace

Nov 3, 2011 11:02 mike: they need to hold around that 1241 area and continue to push higher and take out 1245 for the market has a lunch time high in place

Nov 3, 2011 11:19 mike: the market has had a good bid on pullbacks so watch 1242 for support and then that he area will be staying over at 1240 area-I need to be away for about 15 minutes

Nov 3, 2011 11:41 mike: at 1247.50-1248.50 area gave a small reaction so far-would need to break and hold under 1245now to put some pressure on

Nov 3, 2011 12:04 mike: 1247.50-1248.50 turn the ES down to time and is a sell against it-it shouldn't be exceeded or this is a powerhouse move up-watching the NQ for leadership

Nov 3, 2011 12:23 mike: resistance was rejected at 1246.75 and a decent pullback to 1243.25-that 1243 area is good support and must be broken

Nov 3, 2011 12:42 mike: that was the fourth failure to push through the resistance-if there is another try and it finally gets through than the 1252 would be the next resistance to go for-but how is there is a breakout stay with the short side on bounces that stall out or reverse from near that resistance-and look at 1243 as a key support that must hold

Nov 3, 2011 12:49 mike: this move has some gusto and should be the one that pushes them through resistance force 1252

Nov 3, 2011 13:03 mike: 1248.50-1247.50 area is now support that needs to hold to avoid a reversal

Nov 3, 2011 13:09 mike: 1248.25 was a low at 1252 is still in the cards

Nov 3, 2011 13:11 mike: this can still be bought on a dip as their could be a run-up to set 1257- 1258 area still the way this is acting

Nov 3, 2011 13:29 mike: they shouldn't drop much further or will begin to get a rollover-so need a bounce from here around 1250 area

Nov 3, 2011 13:39 mike: the ES held at 1249.75 and stays in bullish mode unless broken

Nov 3, 2011 13:53 mike: at 1257-1258 expect profit-taking and a decent pullback to occur

Nov 3, 2011 14:08 mike: 1252 area should be pivotal this afternoon- 1257-1258 area is still the key resistance now

Nov 3, 2011 14:23 mike: this is acting a bit like it did when it was running up and backing away from the 1247.50-1248.50 resistance earlier in the day. Since it has turned into a trend up day on the upside-and it was a gap day-we need to keep an eye on 1252 on the bottom side and that is broken in a top will likely be in and selling against 1257-1258 new resistance would have better odds- at the moment and move through 1257 and push the ES on up to the 1262 I will be surprised if that happens but not impossible the way this has acted after the early drop-1252-1251 needs to hold

Nov 3, 2011 14:54 mike: if no quick turnaround here at 1251 then we can be breaking down a bit in the last 45 minutes

Nov 3, 2011 15:49 mike: have a good rest of your day

Wednesday - November 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Nov 2-9:27) mike: so far the 1234.50 resistance stop the bounce- but as long as 1229-1228 area holds a little breakout higher keeps the market in an uptrend.

(Nov 2-9:36) mike: 1234.50 was reversed -that still is resistance

(Nov 2-9:36) mike: 1232 new small support

(Nov 2-9:48) mike: the ES reversed from 1234.75-just over resistance-and drop down to 1230.25 so far. That high needs to be clear or market so vulnerable to test or break 1228

(Nov 2-10:00) mike: 1228 tested. But need to get over 1230.50 to take pressure off

(Nov 2-10:11) mike: as long as the NASDAQ stays under pressure the ES is not going to rally and hold. The 2300 level on the NQ is now important support there-2310-2312 resistance that needs clear

(Nov 02-10:22) mike: stall out at resistance but it turns bullish if 2310 on the NQ gets clear and also 1232 on the ES

(Nov 02-10:33) mike: looks like the 1230.75 holds or another top in place.

(Nov 02-10:46) mike: we had a good move down from resistance on the open but since turning up from 1227 had just been chopping around until the run up from 1229.25. A pullback from the 1234.50 area still possible but a piece of pullback to 1231.50 should probably set up a trade on the long side

(Nov 02-10:50) mike: market stays in up trend now as long as 1233 holds on a pullback

(Nov 02-11:09) mike: this move has run out of gas and 1236 on the ES and 2318 on the NQ need to be support on a pullback

(Nov 02-11:26) mike: a pullback to 1236 hello and a 1239.00 was tested for the third time. need to push through 1239 soon or this can have a reversal

(Nov 02-11:31) mike: I need to be away for about 10 minutes or so. 1234 in support if a breakdown

(Nov 02-11:41) mike: I'm back. I need to leave for some appointments in about 15 minutes And will be gone for the rest of the day. My apologies

(Nov 02-11:48) mike: Two-sided action per last night update in a move down to 1234 still possible. It's a short on a bounce up to 1239 if it stalls out or it is quickly rejected

(Nov 02-11:50) mike: Fed day, so after the release look for a quick up down up, or vice versa, type of pattern and then a directional move to follow

(Nov 02-11:52) mike: 1234 still possible here. They will need to turn up fast on a test of that area or they could go back towards 1230 area.

(Nov 02-11:53) mike: I'll see you tomorrow right here. Have a good rest of the day

Tuesday - November 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Nov 01-09:39) mike: a similar day to yesterday not unexpected as stated last night that bounces should not hold. The first important resistance is up at the 1224 area on the ES and it has support at the 1208 area

(Nov 01-09:46) mike: that can be a high if 1215 is not held. That looks like important to hold

(Nov 01-09:55) mike: economic data out at the top of the hour. This could work towards 1224 if they don't drop down through 1217

(Nov 01-10:03) mike: good selling that 1221 area. 1224 is key above- And a good support still at 1215. Keep one eye on the NQ that looks like it can be the leader

(Nov 01-10:09) mike: just miss the 1224 resistance. This 1219-1218 area needs held or down to 1215 which is more important

(Nov 01-10:15) mike: should see the 1224 area get a reaction, and drop off some at least

(Nov 01-10:17) mike: it looks like 1221.25 needs to hold on this pullback

(Nov 01-10:20) mike: 1221.50 was so pullback low. that should be an important level especially if they say under 1224

(Nov 01-10:29) mike: there is some resistance at 1228. A pullback to the 1224 needs to hold on a pullback to keep the stair step higher in gear

(Nov 01-10:36) mike: the pullback held at 1224.50 so the trends are still up. They would have to turn back down and take out that 1224.50-1224.00 in order to have a reversal. 1232 area would be next resistance if 1228 gets pushed through/held

(Nov 01-10:42) mike: 1226 now needs to hold to keep the grind higher from aborting-there was good selling are on 1228

(Nov 01-10:44) mike: top should be in for a decent pullback-1224.50-1224.00 is still support that last hold

(Nov 01-10:53) mike: watch 1226.25 for resistance on this

(Nov 01-10:57) mike: if breakdown under 1223 then look for 1220.50-1220.00 for a bounce. If that is not held then a move towards 1215

(Nov 01-11:06) mike: we got the push down to 1220.50 area in this is still vulnerable unless 1224 has exceeded and held-along with getting back over 2310 area on the NQ

(Nov 01-11:10) mike: I'll be back in about 10-15 minutes

(Nov 01-11:27) mike: ES dropped down to the 1220.50 support area and made a decent bounce back. It still has to push through 1226 and hold to avoid another trip down to test that 1220 area

(Nov 01-11:46) mike: the 1220 area now important resistance. It stays in poor shape in us that is cleared and held. The 1215 is a support- however 1208 area has a big support if this drop can test the morning low

(Nov 01-11:55) mike: stay with her shorts under 1218 now-2298 area on the NQ

(Nov 01-12:06) mike: 1215 area was support then turned into resistance- that must be cleared and held along with 2292 now on tNQ or we will test the 1208 area before bottoming

(Nov 01-12:31) mike: bounces are failing per last night's update and now we could have a double bottom in place. The 1211.00-1209 .75 zone needs to hold to avoid further breakdown. He moved back over the 1218 area is needed to take some pressure off

(Nov 01-12:48) mike: unless the 1220 level is exceeded the market will stay under pressure. Stay with shorts under that level. If it exceeded along with 2301 on the NQ then things might change but not unless that occurs

(Nov 01-13:02) mike: third time down here and needs to bounce soon or go to 1208

(Nov 01-13:04) mike: 1215 is now the resistance that needs clearing and then held

(Nov 01-13:31) mike: the market finally show a good bid after testing at 1210 area for the third or or time and probably caught some shorts down there. A pullback should be a buying opportunity now.

(Nov 01-13:33) mike: if they pullback to around 1219-1218 that stalls out here-look for a pop back up

(Nov 01-13:36) mike: the probably made that move too fast to take advantage of-another drop needs to hold that area now to stay out of trouble

(Nov 01-13:38) mike: I will be back in about 10 minutes or so

(Nov 01-13:50) mike: 1228 has resistance. If cleared 1232 is possible. 1223.50-1222.50 area is small support on a pullback

(Nov 01-14:19) mike: the market made a good run off the low however unless the 1228. Is cleared this is still not out of trouble it today

(Nov 01-14:33) mike: they can drop a bit from up here, but as long as the 1223.50-1222.50 area is held the market should be okay

(Nov 01-14:53) mike: the pullback held at 1223.50, this area needs to reverse quickly or were back in trouble in

(Nov 01-15:15) mike: I need to call it a day. I will be here in the morning tomorrow, but not in the afternoon due to a doctor's appointment. Have a great rest of the day
 

Monday - October 31, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Oct 31, 2011 9:27
mike: today will be a breakdown day and the short side should offer the better opportunities. The better the bounce the better the short. the 1261-
1260 area is a strong support and 1272. It would be first resistance

Oct 31, 2011 9:28
mike: I probably won't have much else to say until we get through the first half hour-we will see

Oct 31, 2011 9:54
mike: 1261-1260 area was held by just under one point but unless 1265.50 is exceeded and then held the markets is vulnerable

Oct 31, 2011 10:14
mike: the ES held in the 1262 level on three tests and that's just above the important 1261-1260 support so that could be an early low. A pullback should stay over 1264.50 now and there is resistance at 1268 area to get through to avoid another reversal

Oct 31, 2011 10:29
mike: 1267 was a bounce high and the market is lower under that area. 1265 is minor in needs push through and held to take some pressure off

Oct 31, 2011 10:37
mike: the 1265 is now support that it needs to hold to have a chance to get over 1267 resistance

Oct 31, 2011 10:42
mike: should drop down to take a 1265 due to the failure to get over 1268 which is key

Oct 31, 2011 10:45
mike: 1265 was met. keep one eye on the NQ as it has been leading on the way up in the ES leading on the pullbacks

Oct 31, 2011 10:57
mike: the ES will say in a small trading range with resistance still at 1267-1268 to get through.

Oct 31, 2011 11:04
mike: I need to be away for about 10-15 minutes.-gap days are often times trend days but this is in a sideways trading range so it will take a break of the range that sticks to get anything moving in a directional move. Be right back

Oct 31, 2011 11:22
mike: right down to the major support area in small popup 1264.50-1265.00 now a small resistance. A failure there and set up a break of the low

Oct 31, 2011 11:36
mike: 64.50 was rejected and now 1263 needs to hold or a test of the key area at 1261.50-1261 75 could occur-would likely be bought in reach again

Oct 31, 2011 11:52
mike: 1263.0 was held on the pullback. The ES is still in a trading range if the 1263.50 level holds then we can move back up to the 1266.50-1267.50 area where the upside should fail if the market still weak

Oct 31, 2011 12:16
mike: 1263 area was held again, but on the other bounce that failed. that 1263 is important to hold or else a move back to the 1261-1260 area

Oct 31, 2011 12:23
mike: careful trying to buy a support-a bounce from there should fail and give us lower prices after the bounce

Oct 31, 2011 12:24
mike: I need to take a break for about 30 minutes or so. Back right after that

Oct 31, 2011 12:58
mike: 1262.50-1263.00 area should now be resistance. That would need push through and held in order to get a decent up move

Oct 31, 2011 13:12
mike: a pullback from up here needs to hold around the 1262 area

Oct 31, 2011 13:40
mike: a pullback held the 1262 support and now should try for the 1266.50-1267.00 Area for a top. 1203.50 area should be support now

Oct 31, 2011 13:41
mike: I will be back in about five or 10 minutes

Oct 31, 2011 14:03
mike: the ES tested the resistance from this morning and turned back however as long as 1264.50- 1264.00 it is not broken the market can keep its uptrend intact. If that's broken, then they bounce that follows should fail again under the 1268 resistance

Oct 31, 2011 14:28
mike: just look to sell a bounce that stalled out under 1267-1268 now

Oct 31, 2011 14:57
mike: the last bounce failed at 1265 and this should have resistance around 1266 at the highest-otherwise a test of 67.50-68.00 possible before a turn back down

Oct 31, 2011 15:05
mike: another reversal at 1265 -n 1261.50-& 1261 .00 is support

Oct 31, 2011 15:16
mike: a new low in the last hour should keep market under pressure as long as there is no break/hold over 1261.50. Stay with shorting bounces under that area.

Oct 31, 2011 15:17
mike: time for me to call it a day. I'll see you on here in the morning. Have a good rest of the day

Thursday - October 27, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Oct 27-09:29) mike: I don't have resistance numbers up here but should be a pullback after this emotional open

(Oct 27-09:38) mike: that pop up to 1272 likely early high-short under that-there should be support around 1266

(Oct 27-09:43) mike: 1270.50. Shouldn't be cleared and held

(Oct 27-09:45) mike: at least for a bit-and moved back to 1267.50 or lower

(Oct 27-09:50) mike: 1267.50 was met but not much of a bounce careful long for now

(Oct 27-09:57) mike: trend stays down unless 1269 is cleared/held

(Oct 27-10:06) mike: 1267.50 is now resistance instead of support-pressure on under that level

(Oct 27-10:20) mike: 1267 .50 is still some resistance but market will avoid trouble if 63 is held

(Oct 27-10:30) mike: the bounce failed at 1267 in that keeps market in a downtrend-resistance now at the 1264.50-1265.25 area on the ES

(Oct 27-10:46) mike: the market finally made a decent base to bounce from 1260.75. Don't expect the bounces to go to for you for failing-1268 area it is good resistance-1272 area would be next-must hold 1260.50

(Oct 27-10:54) mike: 1263.50-1263.00 is a small transition area and it needs to hold if the market is going to push higher instead of rolling back over

(Oct 27-11:04) mike: they are stalling under the 1267.50 resistance from earlier. need to say over 12 66. The NQ needs to stay over 2367 or it starts to roll over

(Oct 27-11:05) mike: back in about 10 or 15 minutes

(Oct 27-11:57) mike: this has gone trend up and it should be in decent shape as long as the 1268 transition area has held

(Oct 27-12:04) mike: there should be some resistance around 1275

(Oct 27-12:24) mike: the market has been very strong after it basedout just over 1260 area- the double top/123 top tops this off for now

(Oct 27-12:52) mike: the 1275 resistance was reached by the consolidation and refusal to break down could be bullish but right now it's getting tired in 1272.75 needs to hold

(Oct 27-13:21) mike: the range consolidation was broken 1276 needs to hold or can break down and test 1272-which is turned up support

(Oct 27-13:38) mike: 1278 is taken out a could move up to 1282 area but a failure just as likely

(Oct 27-13:57) mike: should it do 1282 area, in a very strong market it only reversed thisF. 1276 area is taken out

(Oct 27-14:11) mike: 1282.50 was rejected and is a key resistance-here-1278 is support that needs to hold now to keep power and higher or start a deeper retracement

(Oct 27-14:17) mike: I'm still trying to recover from my time away and will need to call it a day here. 1278 held so far, that is important below as 1282.50on the top side. Have a good day, I'll see you in the morning
 

Wednesday - October 26, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Oct 26, 2011 9:31:10 AM EST
mike: it looks like an open just under 1241 assistance area. If not exceeded then 1230 area is still the key support today or last night's update

Oct 26, 2011 9:40:07 AM EST
mike: opening strength sold into just under a good resistance-1230.75-1230.25 is key support to avoid rolling over and going for .227 area

Oct 26, 2011 9:48:35 AM EST
mike: 1237.50 will need to be cleared/ hold to get an up trend -- keep and I on the NASDAQ for a lead

Oct 26, 2011 9:55:49 AM EST
mike: we could have a low in place. If not watch 1232.50-1232.00 for a bounce-needs to go from there on the market gets a deeper pullback towards 1227

Oct 26, 2011 10:06:08 AM EST
mike: the market still having trouble even though it ES turned up from 1233. The NASDAQ is the leader in bounces should be sold to 1227. Area

Oct 26, 2011 10:14:54 AM EST
mike: the ES test that the first target at 1227-1233. It is now a key resistance on a bounce-

Oct 26, 2011 10:18:40 AM EST
mike: 1224 would be the next support-1233 is the resistance

Oct 26, 2011 10:32:07 AM EST
mike: the pressure will stay on unless the ES gets back over 1230 and can hold that on a pullback. Otherwise it's still an ugly market to start the day

Oct 26, 2011 10:45:16 AM EST
mike: three tries to get back over 1230 and all of them failed-stay with shorts under the1230 level-pressure stays on unless that is exceeded and held

Oct 26, 2011 10:55:24 AM EST
mike: next key support at 1216.50 area. There is resistance now at 1224.75-1225.75.-That must be cleared just to take some pressure off. A trend down day in gear as long as that resistance is not exceeded

Oct 26, 2011 11:01:21 AM EST
mike: I will be back with you in about 20 -- 30 minutes. That 1216 area is major today-if that is broken they could trade down to the 1211-1210 area-back in just a bit

Oct 26, 2011 11:42:42 AM EST
mike: as long as 1223 holds now this rally can continue towards 1230 which is still a key resistance

Oct 26, 2011 12:14:29 AM EST
mike: the ES took three stats at getting through 1227.75-1228 area and failed so look for a pullback towards 1228 area, that will need to be defended

Oct 26, 2011 12:21:19 AM EST
mike: I will need to be away for about 45 minutes, I'm still trying to recuperate so bear with me in the afternoons for the rest of this week

Oct 26, 2011 13:10:16 PM EST
mike: stillhi trend down the shoreside we to get to tell 12:16 after a small bounce

Oct 26, 2011 13:31:23 PM EST
mike: 1220.50 is still a good support from the broken then the 1216 area would be in the cards.-resistance to call 28-1230

Oct 26, 2011 13:51:08 PM EST
mike: now the 1229 area will need to hold to keep from a late day drop/pullback. This move could continue to 1236 area of 1229 has not broken

Oct 26, 2011 14:04:14 PM EST
mike: 1235 met. the 1249. still must hold to keep the upside gone

Oct 26, 2011 14:14:27 PM EST
mike: watch 1233 now for key support. 1237. Is resistance

Oct 26, 2011 14:43:05 PM EST
mike: there is good resistance around 11229.50-1230.25 area

Oct 26, 2011 14:54:09 PM EST
mike: we have had a two-sided day with the low right at support-that looks like a high chess under 1140-a test on a bounce should be sold into-1236-1237 area is resistance if they can't hit back to test 1140

Oct 26, 2011 15:37:16 PM EST
mike: 1239 area needs to hold to in the day on a strong note

Tuesday - October 25, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Oct 25-09:37) mike: good morning this should be a day where the bounces fail to hold, but could get a rally from lower levels.

(Oct 25-09:40) mike: 1244 to 1227.00 support in no time. 40.50 is an resistance1237 first

(Oct 25-09:43) mike: 36.50 is the

(Oct 25-09:47) mike: 1237.50 was bounce high,

(Oct 25-09:51) mike: 1240.50 is a resistance in these cleared/held if the reversal from 1227 support is going to be a decent low

(Oct 25-09:58) mike: consumer confidence in five minutes-1235.00-1234.50 needs to hold-and 1240.50needs clear/health to have a bullish run

(Oct 25-10:02) mike: bearish pattern short side still better odds-especially on a break under 1227

(Oct 25-10:09) mike: strange action, nothing like before I was gone.

(Oct 25-10:14) mike: looks like a move over 1236 that holds necessary to make a try for 1240.50 resistance, vulnerable otherwise

(Oct 25-10:25) mike: 1236 was taken out and 1238.75 was reached, that's just under what should be the resistance so be careful long, and has been a scalpers market this morning

(Oct 25-10:33) mike: a small pullback from just under 1240. If 1236 is not held than a move toward 1232.50 is possible. 1240 is exceeded and held than 1242 area would be next resistance

(Oct 25-10:48) mike: this slow motion move higher.just miss 1242 so far -if not cleared then 1237. Area new support

(Oct 25-10:57) mike: finally a move with a tiny bit of momentum. A bounce high should be in place with 1242 as key resistance

(Oct 25-11:09) mike: 1231.50-1230 150 supports area needs to be held--the NASDAQ now the leader on the downside

(Oct 25-11:14) mike: per last nights update-and again this morning-the bounces should not hold. 1242 and still the key resistance on a decent bounce. A break under 1231.50-1230.50 area should get the market down to test its low.

(Oct 25-11:14) mike: I will be back in an hour or so

(Oct 25-12:15) mike: the 1231.50-1230.50 area held on the pullback plan now that will be the key support for the rest of the day

(Oct 25-12:48) mike: 1233.75 is resistance down here, need a bounce off of that to avoid further breakdown

(Oct 25-13:09) mike: watch the 1239.50-1240 150 area for good resistance on this

(Oct 25-13:19) mike: 1239.50 stop the last mile of KU notes today in a

(Oct 25-13:23) mike: 1239.50-1240.50 still has resistance on the grounds, pressure should be on unless broken

(Oct 25-13:31) mike: they should cut through 1335 and headed for 1331.50-1330.50 which is key

(Oct 25-14:02) mike: folks, whether or not it's a dull market or just me, I cannot keep my eyes open this afternoon. I'm going to need to take the rest of the afternoon off. The market remains vulnerable to lay things to look, but after nine sideways for most of the day and anything goes late today. Good luck with this. I will see you in the morning.

(Oct 25-14:05) mike: keep an eye on the NASDAQ futures as they are leading the way this afternoon

 

Monday - October 24, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Oct 24, 2011 9:33:00 AM EST
mike: good morning to its nice to be back. moved up

Oct 24, 2011 9:35:31 AM EST
mike: A failure at an initial resistance here would need to take out 1235 get anything going on that downside

Oct 24, 2011 9:48:43 AM EST
mike: the 1239.50-1239.00 zone is now a key support, the market will reverse only if that breaks

Oct 24, 2011 9:55:42 AM EST
mike: the early high should be in place if not already that in next 15 minutes

Oct 24, 2011 10:00:09 AM EST
mike: need a solid break of the 1239.50-1239.00 zone to put some pressure on as it should be pivotal early

Oct 24, 2011 10:15:23 AM EST
mike: the pullback held right at 1239.00 that's the pivotal support-it will take a break of that and also 2348. on the NASDAQ which is the leader this morning. 1244.75-1245.50. It is that's resistance

Oct 24, 2011 10:19:22 AM EST
mike: FYI-remember I have been away from the markets for the most part of the last seven weeks and it might take some time for me to get back in sync.

Oct 24, 2011 10:26:21 AM EST
mike: reaction at the second resistance trend stays up as long as 1242.75 area is not broken on this pullback. NASDAQ is still in leadership mode

Oct 24, 2011 10:43:29 AM EST
mike: upside lost momentum--still have NASDAQ as a leader and it would mean to break through 2358 to turn that down. It stays out of trouble as long as 1243.50. Is defended it should be important here

Oct 24, 2011 10:54:40 AM EST
mike: 1243.00- pullback low- if broken then trends can turned down-- that shouldn't be pivotal now

Oct 24, 2011 10:03:13 AM EST
mike: support is holding the pullbacks but the NASDAQ is also looking tired so pullback is likely from up here but need the NASDAQ to roll over

Oct 24, 2011 10:19:06 AM EST
mike: the ES held the new support on two different pullbacks and is going to stay in a breakout mode unless 1242.75. Area is broken and then turns into resistance on a bounce.be sure to keep an eye on the NASDAQ still as it is leading the rally this morning--as long as 1242.75 on the ES is defended then no damage will be done. 1250 area the next resistance.

Oct 24, 2011 10:25:12 AM EST
mike: I need to take a break. Just getting back and need to start slowly so there aren't any set backs.I will try to come on later this afternoon but cannot promise that-the market has broken out so don't fight this rally unless there is a reversal of some sort. 1246.50 should offer some support to keep the upside in tact

    *** Mike was very ill and in the hospital for several weeks ***
 

Thursday - September 22, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Sep 22-9:13) mike: A good big volatility day. bounces shouldn't stick. the first resist 1132-1135 area, then 1142-1144.. we should get good bounce from lower, the 1120 level, 1112-1110 big area

(Sep 22-09:41) mike: high may be in. a pullback must stay over 1128 area on ES and 10800 dow cash

(Sep 22-09:48) mike: first update said "the first resist 1132-1135 area, " and mkt in trouble unless thats exceeded / held on a dip. , pivotal area this morning . 28.50-29.50 small resist now

(Sep 22-10:14) mike: the 200.50 matched globex low and is key. but still need clear 33-34 to try better turn up.

(Sep 22-10:15) mike: back in 10 min

(Sep 22-10:36) mike: watch for me turn down from 1134-1136.00 for a double top up here. if 1128.25-1127.50 area is broken, proof of a reversal

(Sep 22-10:51) mike: kind of fast to trade and update-alas bounce rejected 1133.50 which was just under resistance fell down to 1129which was just over 1128.25-1127.75 -an rebound stall at 1134.75, which is at resistance once again. it's still a short up there until broken/held

(Sep 22-10:59) mike: this is not a good price pattern, and unless1131 is exceeded and held them a drawback1122 possible on the select towards 22 area

(Sep 22-11:05) mike: the support is 1124.75 of the next support as long as 1130 is not exceeded

(Sep 22-11:16) mike: this will drift lower as long as 1127 now is exceeded and held

(Sep 22-11:26) mike: 1127.25 was rejected and that will keep the trend down unless broken and held on a pullback from down here

(Sep 22-11:36) mike: they are trying to get turned around here for a bounce, and need to stay over 1125 at the lowest to do so

(Sep 22-11:54) mike: 1128 was rejected and that was prior support

(Sep 22-11:57) mike: in the early going before the drop down to 1122.75 10 it looks like they could go down to 1120.50 low enough that 1122.75 is broken, and maybe more

(Sep 22-12:04) mike: NASDAQ still hasn't tested its low while the ES has, so unless the ES and turn up here and take that 1125 and cold come to market will stay in poor shape

(Sep 22-12:09) mike: 1122 area (old support) is now the trend down resistance now on a bounce. The NQ low today at 2175 low just missed so far

(Sep 22-12:19) mike: about still just under 1122 and the market is still in a trend move. That and the 2184 area on the NQ now need to be exceeded to take the pressure off for a bit if they hold these lows

(Sep 22-12:29) mike: since the NQ has tested its early low two times the market finally got a bit of a lift here. The bounces have been six points roughly, so this is about as far as the move should go

(Sep 22-13:09) mike: as long as they stay under 1126 then back down to 1121.00-1 120.50 or lower in the cards

(Sep 22-13:32) mike: 1121.00-1120.50 zone was easily met-and a test of the low was made-that needs to hold or be quickly reversed or the market is in trouble and could go for 1112-1110 area before it is over. A very back over 1122-1123 area needed to break the downtrend

(Sep 22-13:51) mike: a bounce to 112

(Sep 22-13:56) mike: a bounce to 1121.75 was rejected in the trend down is towards 1112-1110 area

(Sep 22-13:57) mike: in order to stay in a very weak position a bounce should be no more than five points on the ES

(Sep 22-14:08) mike: we reached the tall tan area. Watch this bounce, a stall near 1116-1117 would set up another selling opportunity, or maybe just below that. If they get over 1117 and things may change

(Sep 22-14:22) mike: 1116.25 was reached on that bounce, setting up another short, and now the ES should be on its way to test and possibly turned back up from a test of 1111-1110 area, which it just did as writing this. Now this 1116.25-1117.25 area -- should be a key area to stay under -good push higher for another pullback

(Sep 22-15:35) mike: then they get over 1117, they could rally into the close. Aside from that, turn down still in gear

(Sep 22-15:36) mike: I'm about to call it a day with just 30 minutes left in trading
(Sep 22-15:36) mike: have a nice rest of your day, I'll see you here tomorrow in the morning

Tuesday - September 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Sep 20-09:26) mike: if the ES run up to the1208, and it stalls should be a real good short-97.50 area to hold onto support side

(Sep 20-09:45) mike: 1202 on ES as soon as resistance, shouldn't be exceeded and held

(Sep 20-10:11) mike: the run up to just under 1202 was sold, but the area on NQ is that 2312. If those are exceeded instead of sold the 1204 area is resistance

(Sep 20-10:20) mike: if he ES stops here at 1202 and a sound through 1199.25, then pressure will be on. otherwise a move up to 1204.50 as possible for buyers back off

(Sep 20-10:50) mike: a pullback should stay over 1208 keep a strong

(Sep 20-11:04) mike: stair stepping higher once again, and now as long as the 1208 area is held this and continue. At least there is no reversal unless that area is broken. unless that happens

(Sep 20-11:11) mike: NASDAQ lost some momentum, ES has needs to break down through 1211.50 it is losing its some steam also

(Sep 20-11:22) mike: a top for the morning could it be in, especially NASDAQ with a double top just under 2330. A bounce that stalls just under that is a shorting opportunity for a pullback of some sort up here

(Sep 20-12:13) mike: they have broken down from a double the NASDAQ futures and a 123type top on the ES, if they bounced back to about 1212 on the ES and/or 2328 area on the NQ it should set up a good pullback, or better one that started. We won't get that bounce and let's say and push up through 1210.50 and also 2325 on the NQ first which is small resistance up here

(Sep 20-12:25) mike: we have key support at 1208.50 on ES and 2323 on the NQ. Both are transition areas to the downside if broken.

(Sep 20-12:29) mike: on the top side, a double top at the key 1213.75-1214.50 resistance on the ES and that the same as 2332- 2333 area on the NQ-- both important areas that should be a top and especially if the support areas are broken

(Sep 20-12:39) mike: that should be it for the bounce, shorts for a swing trade on any bounce, 1212 good/important resistance now

(Sep 20-12:41) mike: an attempt to hold at 1208.50 will not stick on a bounce. And if 2322 on the NQ is broken it can pick up some steam

(Sep 20-13:20) mike: they reached 1214 and turned down, need to stay under that you keep the top that are alive. A break and hold under 1211 area roles this over again. Keep and eye on the NQ as it is leading

(Sep 20-13:25) mike: Bulls need to defend this1211 or we had back towards 1208

(Sep 20-13:32) mike: this move is starting to wind up tight with a fourth test up 1214 possible on top, and the stair step up support at the 1211 area. A break of that range needs some gusto to have a clean break out your way, the NASDAQ will likely lead the way if a breakout

(Sep 20-13:40) mike: that should be it

(Sep 20-13:55) mike: dynamics have changed, bounces now are shorts under 1214 area, if they do rally to take out that high then can add up to 1218. I doubt they can take out 1214 but if they do then they need to hold or we get a decent pullback to 1208 or lower

(Sep 20-14:17) mike: they reached the 1208.50 support area after stair stepping lower from 1214 then 1213.25, then 1211.50 and now made higher highs. They should pullback again from that 1213.25-1214.00 area and hold those 1208 area on a drop -market okay as long as 1208 is held

(Sep 20-14:26) mike: got a pullback from the high, or a least another test of that 1213.50 level, and no move under 1211 that is not reversed right away will give a further push down to 1208 area.1212.50 is now going to be sold if there's not going to be another test of the high

(Sep 20-14:35) mike: 2:30 PM bounce to a high, and subsequent sharp drop to the 1208.50 support area... bounces from here on out are shorting opportunities if not short already

(Sep 20-14:37) mike: he bounced back to 1211 area on the ES that stalls out should give a good opportunity to enter if you're not short

(Sep 20-14:46) mike: we have our breakdown under 1208, now the 1208.50-1209.50 area is his resistance, 2318 area on the NASDAQ

(Sep 20-14:50) mike: they key areas for this to trade down to his the 1204.00-1202.50 zone on the ES and the 2304-2302 area on the NQ

(Sep 20-15:04) mike: they rejected the 1208.50 new resistance, keeping the market in a trend downward move torts 1202 as long as that 1208 is not exceeded now

(Sep 20-15:12) mike: the ES reached at 1202. area and has a little turnaround needs to get back to 1206 area to read short of a stall there. Still holding part for overnight for a swing trade.

(Sep 20-15:23) mike: the market is breaking through the first breakdown area and the second one is the 1197 area

(Sep 20-15:23) mike: beware of a bounce from there

(Sep 20-15:23) mike: resistance now at 1204.50-1206.25 area

(Sep 20-15:25) mike: we had a good afternoon yet a lot of folks are gone. Just over 30 minutes to go, so I'm going to call it a day. I will be away at a Dr. appointment in the morning and not sure when I will be home, and if in condition to do updates. If I don't what you know, then Julie will. Have a good rest of the night

Monday - September 19, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Sep 19-09:29) mike: watch for the 1193.00-1194.004 good resistance early, we should have good volatility bounces should fail

(Sep 19-09:46) mike: if you bought puts last Thursday it's time to get out of at least half of them, look for a reentry or addition of a decent bounce

(Sep 19-09:55) mike: no reversal to the upside unless there is a move over 1188 on the ES that can hold. Even then, the next resistance would would be at 1191.25-1192.00 area. If they get up there and stall it should be a good short

(Sep 19-09:59) mike: Econ data in about one minute

(Sep 19-10:09) mike: should turn here if we don't have a solid low and that 10 AM at the 1182 area

(Sep 19-10:16) mike: a decent pullback from that high at 1186.75. It will take a move over that area that holds to change things just for a short while today it looks like, the market should have one of those big days the way the market looks like

(Sep 19-11:06) mike: the pushover 1187 was quickly reversed

(Sep 19-11:10) mike: and also 1188 was a pre-open high area/resistance area on Globex. It's a short still unless the 1188 is pushed through

(Sep 19-11:29) mike: there are going to have to get turned up from 87.25-87.50 at the lowest here were the bounce will be rolling over

(Sep 19-11:50) mike: all of the pullbacks of 3.25-3.75 points on the ES have been bought-another pullbacks should hold around 1190 to avoid changing from a trend up

(Sep 19-12:11) mike: the ES made a 123 top, that is going to break 1190 and push lower if the market is going to be two-sided today, 10 1194 should be solid resistance for now

(Sep 19-12:23) mike: if 1188 is cut through then 1188.75 or lower is in the cards-other wise resistance at 1191 should be sold if they bounce stalls there

(Sep 19-12:35) mike: the bigger picture trend up was broken a bit viciously this morning, and just say 12 point bounce off of the low for the ES was all they can muster so far. If this cannot turn up in a rush up through the 1191-1192 area and hold above (not reject area like I suspect will happen if this was a soft bearish move files)and then turn back down, then next drop. Take out 1188 and keep going down to the 1181.50 low or lower on the next leg down.

(Sep 19-13:01) mike: under 1187.50-1188.50 the market is under pressure again and can go down in test or break the 1281.50 low alloy lower if it gains some momentum

(Sep 19-13:38) mike: we have a slow and choppy range with just two decent move so for-if they turn down from 1188 area here then I dropped down to 1184.54 lower

(Sep 19-14:15) mike: slow grind higher are being sold just a bit under 60 EMA on for five-minute charts. Then we hit with a small pullback. So they should have a pullback from here, but not go back under 1186.50 to stay out of trouble.

(Sep 19-14:29) mike: to make this into a top, the ES needs to drop down through 1190 and we need the NQ to break down under 2288 area and stay, otherwise they have a chance to push higher. The key resistance to get over and hold it is at 2292 on NASDAQ and 1192.50 on the ES

(Sep 19-14:34) mike: a support was broken and quickly reversed back up. If there is another great of those supports, then that should be a high in place now, so look for a shorting opportunity with a stop with just over 1192.50 on the ES and 2292 on the NASDAQ futures if there one more push lower through those support areas

(Sep 19-14:45) mike: the ES could continue on up to 1196. As long as they itt holds above 1190.00-1189.50 zone, no damage done yet but a reversal from around 1196 and around 2298 on the NQ will turn things over

(Sep 19-14:56) mike: both ES and the NQ miss the resistance by just the tiny bit and turn down. The ES doesn't hold 1191 and in the NQ cannot hold 2288, a high should be in

(Sep 19-15:24) mike: there should be some resistance up here around 1202. A pullback will need to hold around196 area in order to keep this upside intact end of the day. They can't bounce from that area, then it dropped back to 1188 area would be pivotal to end the day

(Sep 19-15:42) mike: less than 30 minutes left, and at 1202 level was reached but not reject yet, 1204. It would be the last important level in the day. This will stay in a good of trend as long as the ES can stay over 1200, or 1296.50 at the worst otherwise this is topping out

(Sep 19-15:43) mike: have a good rest of your day

Thursday - September 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Sep 15, 2011 9:29 mike: 1191 this first support and 1182.50. Is key for today. They need to hold lower 1197 50-1198.50 after the first hour to not have a reversal

Sep 15, 2011 9:36 mike: be sure it's something on a bounce is not short already

Sep 15, 2011 9:38 mike: a hold over 1296.50 needed to avoid a good size pullback-if that would be exceeded that of the 1200 area will be pivotal

Sep 15, 2011 9:47 mike: 94could be a turning point back down otherwise need to stay over 1190

Sep 15, 2011 9:56 mike: previous turning point was from 93.50, just under 94 turning point, and a 4.50 drop-down followed. Second bounce failed at 1192.75, and now 1189 is needed too hold and bounce off of in order to avoid trouble

Sep 15, 2011 10:08 mike: a third try at 1197.50-1198.50key area short-term, the ES doesn't get into trouble and less it breaks under 1194 at worst on a pullback

Sep 15, 2011 10:24 mike: the high made right at the big resistance and they drop to test the first low has been broken, so this space and tends down under 1195 with a target down around 1188 and then 1182.50 in some major area this morning if 1188 not held

Sep 15, 2011 10:48 mike: a high at a major resistance 36 minutes into trading, and now a low at 86.75 was made 68 minutes into trading so far. A move back over 1191.50-1198.00 needed to take some pressure off and move higher otherwise a failure would set up a test of the low

Sep 15, 2011 11:01 mike: the fact that the bounce could not get over 1190 on the ES is telling that the market is in a weak position and a trip down to 1181 will need to be quickly reversed or the downside can pick up some steam

Sep 15, 2011 11:25 mike: a short under 1192 down to 1188

Sep 15, 2011 11:35 mike: got hit with a power outage. I need to be away for a bit.I don't have much time on this phone card to finish today and over tomorrow without the power coming back on

Sep 15, 2011 12:17 mike: I might have connection now I hope for a while... the ES is pushing back towards top of its range and the same with the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ has been a bit weaker but as long as 1192.25-1191.50 has held then the move can continue to hire, but if that breaks and not turned up from 1191.50, then will see go for the downside instead

Sep 15, 2011 12:28 mike: if they fail to push through 1195.50-1196.00 with some gusto soon then it's trouble, a pretty good sized sell off could occur. That resistance is important up here on both the ES

Sep 15, 2011 12:35 mike: they can push through this on the NQ, and have to ES follow, but they need to stay over 1193-have the worse- still on the ES to stay in bullish mode

Sep 15, 2011 13:04 mike: back up for yet another test of the 97.50-98.50 area, needs to push through and hold on this go I think, -or a top will be forming. 1195 is now key support on pullback

Sep 15, 2011 13:19 mike: another failure so far at the 98.50 area, a move under 96.50 should start putting some pressure on the downside

Sep 15, 2011 13:32 mike: we have a drop-off of a test of the key resistance, there is a bounce back up to test 97.50 or just below and look for more selling from that area in this is top hat resistance

Sep 15, 2011 13:47 mike: watch 97.00-97.50 so and here for another turn down if the market is going to stay top-heavy

Sep 15, 2011 14:15 mike: he 1198.00-1197.50. I is now good support on a pullback, and needs to hold to keep the markets strong. Resistance at 1202 area just miss but that support is more important short-term for direction

Sep 15, 2011 14:23 mike: this is make or break area, 97.50 if broken should mean a highest in place, and any bounce back to test that high will be so beware of potential change of trend from up here

Sep 15, 2011 14:30 mike: I'd like to see a little bit more pullback, to set up a one last run to test the high, or just a bit lower. If that were to occur, we do get a decent rally up to trade and then possibly catch a high before a bigger drop occurs

Sep 15, 2011 14:46 mike: there is no fear so far like I felt there would be up at this area, so need some proof still a number of the prior support at 1197, that will need to be broken to change this trend and scare out some long from up here

Sep 15, 2011 15:02 mike: similar patterns the last three days. This might hold up in the last hour by the others this week have not. Wouldn't buy up here, but maybe a pullback that gets a foothold to bounce from around 1198-1197 old resistance-now it is some support

Sep 15, 2011 15:27 mike: should be pressure late as long as 1200.59 exceeded

Sep 15, 2011 15:36 mike: it looks like a 3:30 PM pullback low today, and that should be it for the selling. 1202 area still strong resistance and a day

Sep 15, 2011 15:36 mike: have a good rest of that day, I'll see you here in the morning

Wednesday - September 14, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Sep 14-09:24) mike: 69 area support up here, needs to hold that area or back towards 65. Before another bounce attempt

(Sep 14-09:37) mike: early highs are in place

(Sep 14-09:42) mike: they should come back down to 1165 area as long as 71 now exceeded/without being quickly rumors

(Sep 14-09:44) mike: without being quickly "reversed"that was a typo

(Sep 14-09:52) mike: that should be about it for a bounce back unless 72 area exceeded

(Sep 14-09:55) mike: looking for a test of 66 to be very key to hold and bounce strongly from. I'd kind of doubt that happens, my bias is still bearish

(Sep 14-09:59) mike: the ES needs to get over 1172-1173

(Sep 14-10:08) mike: target at65 reached but that should be taken out to the downside as long as no hold over 1169 now

(Sep 14-10:12) mike: stay with the short side on bounces that fail under 1169 at the low area and 1172 area on the top side, that will be key. I need to be away for about 15 minutes, my apologies

(Sep 14-10:26) mike: 62.50-64 .00 area is as a weak bounce should go

(Sep 14-10:41) mike: need to get my voice my voice software working better, market stays in some trouble in less 69 area is cleared. Hope to be back in 10 men or so

(Sep 14-11:04) mike: 65 held for about 30 minutes, just pushed through. 61.25 is a good support below, it needs to hold where the break of a wedge that occur and there isn't much more upside before turning back down

(Sep 14-11:19) mike: 65 was a transition on the upside, unless that breaks this trend will stay up. If it is broken, then back to a market that is rolling over with 1161.25 as a big support to hold on a breakdown

(Sep 14-11:31) mike: a much better bounce than expected, but should fail here under 72, 69 as a support now that needs to hold to avoid an potential change in trend

(Sep 14-12:04) mike: as long as 71 has held this will continue towards 1174.50-1175.50 or higher. Just beware of a pullback when the upsidestones fizzles

(Sep 14-12:30) mike: the market is trying to hold together up here, but if this next pop up reverse is down from 1173 then we could turn this back down. No rollover and less a break under 1169 that does not quickly reverse back up again.

(Sep 14-12:35) mike: 73.00 reached so far - will need a break under 1171 .25 to break this tiny uptrend off of 1169.25

(Sep 14-13:06) mike: 72.50 should be key support now on a pullback, a transition area that needs to be held. It would take a break back under that level that is then turned into resistance on a bounce to get this turned back down. Unless the curse of buyers are still in control on pullbacks over 72.50

(Sep 14-13:39) mike: this could be still headed to 1184 area, carefull on the short side until the trends change. A pullback now should stay over 76.75-76.25 at the lowest

(Sep 14-13:55) mike: if 1179 level breaks, a bounce that follows should be sold as a high would have better odds oft being in place

(Sep 14-14:22) mike: the last pullback held 80.50 and the ES pushed on through The 1184 area pretty easily, and that 1184-1183 has now support it needs to hold to keep this upside going

(Sep 14-14:47) mike: all of the pullbacks have been bought, but a double top from under 1186 could be in, it takes a break under 1182 to change the trends to down put a shot on the short side with a tight stop up here could be played for a drop down through 1182 or lower

(Sep 14-15:02) mike: there is resistance at 87.50-88.50 area, but unless 1186 has broken it still trend up and trading from alongside still better on its

(Sep 14-15:08) mike: 89.50 was my last of the listed resistance last night. If 87.25 holds it could get pushed through here

(Sep 14-15:11) mike: I won't be surprised to see a last hour pullback occur, maybe in the last 15 minutes or so, if this is able to hold 1188 at the farthest on a pullback. A grind up to 92-93 could be reversed, if not their then up at 1197-1198 at the maximum on the upside

(Sep 14-15:23) mike: a pullback base to hold around 1189.52 keep from rolling over late day, or at least as other pullback

(Sep 14-15:29) mike: this could go for 1197 1198 after all. I'm not sure what turned so good over the last couple of days to make this market look like a powerhouse, but it sure looks good and strong today. I would be tempted to nab a few put for a potential fast countertrend drop but this doesn't seem like the setup for that

(Sep 14-15:31) mike: 1190.50 area is thei support to hold in the day. Have a good rest of the day.

Friday - September 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Sep 02-09:36) mike: should be under pressure and less 1185 area is clear handheld. I will be back a little bit after 10 AM

(Sep 02-10:21) mike: the rally up to1185 was rejected, and that looks like it's still key to clear and then hold on a pullback

(Sep 02-10:35) mike: they have to bounce from this 1177  and  hold over  for it to avoid 75-74 or lower

(Sep 02-10:38) mike: pressures is on unless they get over 1180 area and hold. Even if that happens 1185 is still key

(Sep 02-10:45) mike: the ES turned out from the 79.50level, need you over our pressure still on

(Sep 02-11:03) mike: they got over 1179.50 and needs to hold that is to keep this going

(Sep 02-11:28) mike: after the last update the ES reversed up from just under 1179.50 and continued up so far to test 1185. As long as a fullback holds 1182 area this can't continue this can continue

(Sep 02-11:41) mike: 1182 area now is a pivotal area, it must hold for the trends change to down in the next bounce would be sold into. A push over 1185 will need to hold that not quickly reverse to stay over 1182

(Sep 02-12:02) mike: I need to be away for about an hour it looks, my apologies. If something changes and I can update, I will but otherwise I will be away for a bit

(Sep 02-12:32) mike: slow and choppy action and still unable to clear 1185 and hold. Favor selling against 1185 for a better pullback

(Sep 02-13:44) mike: trended down the day in the works, stay with shorts under the 79.50-80.00 area as that shouldn't be exceeded and held

(Sep 02-14:00) mike: we have a potential double bottom at 1176.00-1175.50 and if that's broken then we should go right to 1170.50 area, last listed support

(Sep 02-14:08) mike: 1179.75-1178.75 prior support is now key resistance on the upside, would need to be exceeded and held to put a dent in the downside

(Sep 02-14:22) mike: 1170.25-1169.50 area is a major support today, it's been trending down and in that is not held in the market will close on a poor note most likely. If they do go back and make a slightly lower low at that area and then turn up, it might give a bounce, but not hold

(Sep 02-14:24) mike: it has been a long week for me doing this from a hospital bed, but hopefully did a good job of keeping you on the right side of the market. I'm going to call it a day. Have a great long weekend, and I'll see you here next week.

Thursday - September 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

[Sep 1, 2011 9:47] mike ISM Index in 15 minutes, ES is underwater unless it gets over 1220 and holds

[Sep 1, 2011 9:49] mike I have a doctor visit somewhere around 10, but could be anywhere between now and 1030. I'll update after that's over

[Sep 1, 2011 10:19] mike a rally high just under a big resistance, 1218 area needs to hold or low move is likely over. Resistance at 1224.50-1225.00 area should be sold if market week

[Sep 1, 2011 10:35] mike failure just under 1224 area, that needs to be cleared and held him and him/market has topped for a while otherwise, a bounce here to run up and take out .1224 area needed, or back down to 1211 area, more likely 1208

[Sep 1, 2011 10:38] mike watch 1222.50 for a turn back to the downside.

[Sep 1, 2011 10:55] mike market will avoid trouble as long as 1216 holds. If that is broken, then bounces after should set up a short sale. 1224-1225 area is still resistance to push through, or a breakdown likely

[Sep 1, 2011 10:55] mike back in about 10 to 15 minutes

[Sep 1, 2011 11:33] mike if another two-sided day in the works, then this 1220 area should be hard to get over and hold, should pull back here a bit if so

[Sep 1, 2011 11:41] mike they turned it down from 19.75, need a breakthrough 17.50 on downside to get a push towards 1216 for lower

[Sep 1, 2011 11:44] mike we got the rollover from just under 1220, and dropped to 1215.75 low so far, they should go lower the way this is acting

[Sep 1, 2011 11:52] mike a bit like yesterday, the action is slowing down but has shown good resistance just a bit under the 1230 level on the max upside, and now the 1220 acting as good resistance. can see a drop down to1212 area,

[Sep 1, 2011 11:52] mike and if not held if that's not held then let 1208

[Sep 1, 2011 12:06] mike 1220 was sold again, but no breaking down yet, it's a scalp on both sides unless a break and hold under the 1213-1211 so on the bottom, or I'll move over 1220 and hold... Back in about 15 minutes

[Sep 1, 2011 12:28] mike my apologies for being away so much this morning. I need to be away for another 30 minutes or so,

[Sep 1, 2011 13:38] mike I'm back, sorry for the interaction him him him him him him him him him him. Him him him him him him him as long as they stay under 1215.50 then the ES still has more to do on the downside, even though the 1211 area met here

[Sep 1, 2011 13:44] mike but 1212. Now resistance on a bounce. They need to bounce here from the 1207.50 area or a down to 1204-1202.

[Sep 1, 2011 14:00] mike 1210 looks like it is turning into an important area to get over and then hold on a pullback. The trend is still down towards the 1204 area and maybe we can see a different just under 1200. However, if they push over a 1210 area and then hold, it could set up another short squeeze rally late in the day.

[Sep 1, 2011 14:10] mike the 1204 area is being tested, and if they don't get over 1207-1208 then the market still in a trimmed it down to move. 01210 area is still looking like he resistance to break the trend now

[Sep 1, 2011 14:30] mike an attempt to double bottom at 1204, that better hold or we will likely see a dip under 1200 for a reversal attempt. Otherwise, still need to get over 1208, better yet a 1210 area, and then hold to get out of trouble here, and maybe it yet another lake day rally

[Sep 1, 2011 14:45] mike a turned down from 12 10, 1208-1207 should not be broken if there is going to be a decent bounce,, otherwise they moved back down to 1204 or lower

[Sep 1, 2011 15:05] mike back down to 1204, and 1200 likely it appears. Hold off on any lungs unless/until there is house with her gusto, then a pullback. Avoid long as otherwise and look to sell if they bounce stalls out

[Sep 1, 2011 15:13] mike a double bottom at 1204.00-1203.75. That will be key in the day to hold, or a test of 1200 is possible. Resistance at 1207 now needs clear and held to avoid going down there

[Sep 1, 2011 15:15] mike I need to be calling it a day. Employment number tomorrow, we've had another good opportunity day, will avoid a late day move as it could be a fake. Have a good rest of your day
 

Wednesday August 31, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 31-09:25) mike: Mike will not be able to do any updates here until after his doctor comes this morning

(Aug 31-10:23) mike: to avoid changing trend the1124.00 level needs to hold or quickly reverse of tested. 1232. Next resistance. 1218 area major area this morning, that shouldn't be seen or else the market will have a reversal in place

(Aug 31-10:49) mike: the upside lost momentum, and must reverse back up from 1224.50-1224.00, otherwise 1222 is next

(Aug 31-11:01) mike: the 1222 area is still key here, otherwise we should see a test of the 1218 area, that is a key area today. This downtrend stays intact unless 1225 150. It succeeded/held on a pullback

(Aug 31-11:29) mike: but 1218 area tested, but now about 1222.00-1222.50 area needs push through and then held or the scandal over still, the 1214 area would be next

(Aug 31-11:54) mike: the bounce to 22.25 was sold, if 1218 is broken then the market will be under pressure, as the NASDAQ is currently

(Aug 31-11:56) mike: 1214-1212 zone is key now,

(Aug 31-12:37) mike: they made a low at noon, and didn't say under 1218 for very long at all. It looks like some resistance still at 1224 area. A pullback to around 1220 will do the market is going to stay in the same shape up here

(Aug 31-12:39) mike: I will be back in about 30 or 40 minutes. I don't think that the ES is going to be able to get over 1230 and hold today. But if I'm wrong on that, then we could see 1238 on this leg up before a good size

(Aug 31-12:40) mike: pullback/drop occurs. So careful buying up there in that area if they get their and the move stalls out for rolls over

(Aug 31-13:31) mike: 1220.50-1220.00 area is key trend support now. The 60. EMA on five-minute chart has been holding, he buried under that should start a decent pullback

(Aug 31-13:40) mike: a decent bounce off of 20.50, nothing bad happens as long as that is held. 1224.00-1224.50 area is next resistance on bounce

(Aug 31-13:44) mike: at this point, I think that bounces are going to fail and set up better opportunities on the short side-especially if a 20.00 broken here

(Aug 31-13:51) mike: if there is a bounce here, and it fails under 1223 on the ES, and 2249 on nq it sets up a good short, a top is in for while it appears

(Aug 31-14:05) mike: they need to get back over 1218.50 area and hold on a pullback in order to get a decent bounce attempt going, but the way the market is acting it would only set up a good shorting opportunity. I would keep my finger off of the buy button for now I just look for shorting opportunities given a decent bounce that fails.

(Aug 31-14:08) mike: keep an eye on the NASDAQ also, it started getting week before the ES has led the way pretty much since then. It should have some resistance at 2239-2241 area first. That shouldn't be exceeded and held for very long of going to continue this downtrend, but if cleared along with that 1218.50 area on the ES, then a better bounce possible before selling comes in but below that 1224.

(Aug 31-14:17) mike: if the ES drops down to 1213-1211 zone in the next 15 minutes or so, and then begins to turn up, then a scalp trade on the long side can set up. I pass otherwise

(Aug 31-14:32) mike: 18.50 on the ES was rejected and now should see the 12th 15 area break, also the NQ state under its resistance. Both are key resistance late day

(Aug 31-14:41) mike: 1213-1211 is a major area down here. If that breaks, then the market begins to prove it is ready for a bigger drop. To avoid that breaks down, needs to rally soon as we are almost out of the reversal timeframe

(Aug 31-14:43) mike: if that keys on breaks, then 1208 and the cards. 1218.50 is key resistance on a bounce if there is a late rebound, but the short side better odds on bounces

(Aug 31-14:57) mike: the ES dropped 16 points since the 1 PM bounce high and broke through some key support on the way. A good bounce back up to the 1214-1215 area, but that should be it if the market is going to continue the trend down action since 1 PM. If it goes any further than that, then 1218.00-1218.50 is key to get back over and then hold above that on a pullback

(Aug 31-15:09) mike: this is the best bounce since the one that began around 12-noon,stalling a bit, 1214 needs to hold him to keep out of trouble. A close under the 1212 level will be a bearish sign for the market going into the next few days, even though it's end of month and the going into a holiday

(Aug 31-15:14) mike: last interruption here I need to be away the last 45 minutes here. That run up stopped at the 60. EMA on the five-minute chart, that was good support on the way up and now turning into resistance on the way down since the trend has changed. Use that as dynamic resistance the rest of the day if there is another decent run up and it stalls out near their. Have a good rest of your day

Tuesday August 30, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 30-10:09) mike: watch 1199 for a resistance, should be important

(Aug 30-10:18) mike: 1199-1200 has been resistance on this bounce. From what ever is bounce high turns down from, I'm looking for an 8.50 point drop to the

(Aug 30-10:24) mike: swing low. That would be 1191.25. now unless the 1200 area is exceeded and held /that 1200 global looks to be the key level to get over and stayed over to stay out of trouble and tried to get something going on the upside. I'll be back in a little while

(Aug 30-10:49) mike: they should bounce from 97-96 to avoid trouble

(Aug 30-10:52) mike: even then, if they push up to around 1201.50-1202.50 area should be sold if the market is going to be weak

(Aug 30-11:12) mike: 1201.50 was sold at a drop to 1199.00 turn right back up. that second bounce cleared 1202.50so the market is not as weak as it may look.if that's the case, then 1207. It's possible on this move

(Aug 30-11:16) mike: the 1202.50-1201.50. Kind of a pivotal area that needs to hold on this pullback. If that's broken and not quickly reverse, then the dynamics could be changing a move back towards 1198 area would be next

(Aug 30-11:17) mike: I need to take a break for a bit, back in about 30 minutes or so if time permits

(Aug 30-11:46) mike: should be a dip from up here, key support for the next hour or so is that 1206.25-1205.50. If that is not bought up, then things change, and bounces will then likely be sold. But the market stays bullish until that support area is broken/and thenholes on a bounce attempt

(Aug 30-12:31) mike: add the pullback from 1213.25, and now must turn right from 1206 925-1205.50 area or things will be changing

(Aug 30-12:38) mike: F. 1206.50 isn't held, then expect a bounce to fail under the 1308.50-1309.50 area, as that will be the overhead to get through and hold to avoid more downside/topping out for this move

(Aug 30-12:44) mike: things are breaking down, cluster of resistance just above 1209 . A balance of to 1206.75-1207.50 that solves/reverses would set up a good short with a stop around 1209

(Aug 30-12:54) mike: this 1203 00-1202.50 area is important, was open area and then bounced high around 10:35 AM and then held on a pullback

(Aug 30-12:56) mike: pressure should be on under the 1205 area now, and then the 1208.00-1208.50 zone of that 1205 is not sold.

(Aug 30-12:58) mike: I will be back in 30 minutes or so hopefully, stay with selling bounces as it looks like we may have a higher place

(Aug 30-13:49) mike: the last ounce turned down from just under 1208.00-1208.50 area, and gave a decent drop. That is still a key area it appears. But for now, as long as 1201-1199 area it's held a market will avoid trouble today and say in a two sided mode.

(Aug 30-14:06) mike: a good reversal at the 1208.00-1208.50 area, right down to 1203 so far. They should bounce off of 1201-1199 area or far else they can see a push down towards 1196 or lower. 1193 low area this morning is now key support the rest of the day to avoid a bigger reversal

(Aug 30-14:19) mike: a pullback towards 1207.50-1206.75 should hold and give it another bounce if the market is going to stay strong. If that's broken, then 1203 area is the key support below

(Aug 30-14:31) mike: a pullback held just over the 1207.50, and testing.1213 hi area. As long as that 1208 area holds on the market will avoid a reversal and can continue higher. If that area is not offended, then back down towards the 1203 area. The market has held on the dips, so unless there is a sharp break lower the market will stay in bullish mode.

(Aug 30-14:33) mike: I need to be away for a half an hour or more. I will be back for one more update before the close

(Aug 30-15:10) mike: the resistance was rejected for a third time, as long as 1208 holds no damage done this afternoon. Only a close back under 1208 is negative. Have a good rest of the day

Thursday August 18, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Aug 18, 2011 9:20:27 AM EST
mike: 58 big tgt met already. should be a rough day for buyers, 52 area next. sell the bounces , 65 resist, then 72.50. Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed release, and Leading Indicators at 10am.

Aug 18, 2011 9:38:16 AM EST
mike: 53.50-51.50 a supp area. , still sellers o n bounce

Aug 18, 2011 9:51:51 AM EST
mike: 1150 a key supp, low pre econ data release

Aug 18, 2011 9:52:37 AM EST
mike: 58 area pivotal resist

Aug 18, 2011 10:02:10 AM EST
mike: 50 area good resist now, a short

Aug 18, 2011 10:02:51 AM EST
mike: bigger pic break dn, sell any good bounce

Aug 18, 2011 10:03:00 AM EST
mike: back in 15 min

Aug 18, 2011 10:35:03 AM EST
mike: they bounced up to1145 unless momentum then the push up to 1144, a bit of a wedge pattern, market still horrible under 1144-1145

Aug 18, 2011 10:40:48 AM EST
mike: 37.75-37 .25 area is support before a test of the low. It will take a move over 1144-1145 area to hold to take some pressure off and avoid potential test of low from that

Aug 18, 2011 10:53:53 AM EST
mike: this should be key here. So far the market has avoided a second breakdown so far, it could happen after a lunchtime rally and into the afternoon if a pushover 1144-1145 and don't turn right back down. A pullback should stay over 1136.50 last low to avoid another breakdown

Aug 18, 2011 11:15:32 AM EST
mike: the moved up to1144.50, but the move stalled, a good spot for a short period this pullback to 1138.50 needs to hold, or bounce right back after a break, as it looks like that might be key on the downside as it is the 45 level on the upside

Aug 18, 2011 11:32:48 AM EST
mike: third getting short squeeze, I pullback to 41.50 area should hold if it happens soon. 48 area next resistance

Aug 18, 2011 11:43:08 AM EST
mike: if 43.50 is not defended now, then this move up will begin to get top-heavy,

Aug 18, 2011 11:46:49 AM EST
mike: 48 should be seen, if no turn from there than up to the 1150-51 area that should be the key resistance above us

Aug 18, 2011 11:54:39 AM EST
mike: 1148 was reached and rejected, 1145 area meets to hold to keep pushing higher, if broken though then another downdraft coming, possibly after a bounce to a lower high fails

Aug 18, 2011 12:03:49 AM EST
mike: some support at 42.50.

Aug 18, 2011 12:06:02 AM EST
mike: 42.50 held so far. a drop-down under 1140 would be pretty bearish, if that happens without a quick bounce, follow-through selling to 1137 area is a key spot below

Aug 18, 2011 12:28:48 AM EST
mike: 48 to 42 a pretty good range. Were making another channel/wedge pattern on the upside, but not in danger unless 1142 has broken. They should hold around 1144 if they are going to bounce again

Aug 18, 2011 12:30:04 AM EST
mike: I will be kind of in and out for the next hour. My apologies. A slow trade after a big open, watch the channel for a break in for support/resistance until then

Aug 18, 2011 12:59:41 AM EST
mike: 1142 had a pretty good bid, that needs to hold now, a trade up to 44-45 should fail on a bounce here if weak

Aug 18, 2011 13:06:34 PM EST
mike: looks short next bounce under 44, or around that area if they pop up, market looking tired

Aug 18, 2011 13:07:27 PM EST
mike: it's outside of the channel also, so should try for lower levels and may be a test of 1133-1131 zone which is a key zone today especially on the close. Have to stay just over 1128

Aug 18, 2011 13:17:48 PM EST
mike: 40.50 is a little now, as long as we stay under that, a test of the low or at least 1133 area likely

Aug 18, 2011 13:21:24 PM EST
mike: the bounce to 40.50-41.50 should be sold at the market is still weak. That's just below where the buyers came in shortly before 1 PM, should be a minor resistance at the least

Aug 18, 2011 13:34:55 PM EST
mike: 40.50 was sold.......it hasn't been a very perky market,, this should test the lows the way it looks

Aug 18, 2011 13:39:44 PM EST
mike: 37.00-37.50 resistance on a bounce. 1133-1131 is major support today, if they push under that area and can't turn right back up, then the market has problems. We would see 1128 at the least before they try to turn around. That's just below here, so beware

Aug 18, 2011 13:48:29 PM EST
mike: the bounce off of 33.50 saved the day so far. It looks like 1138 needs to be exceeded/held on a pullback now to get out of trouble down here, and avoid another test of the 33-31 major area

Aug 18, 2011 13:52:33 PM EST
mike: 36.75 to support now on a pullback. If that holds we can have a double bottom in place and maybe start a decent bounce. Resistance is still at 40.50-41.50, that should be key

Aug 18, 2011 14:04:59 PM EST
mike: it looks like they bottom out. A little double bottom in a bigger double bottom. A pullback to 38 area should be run right back up the market is now in good shape from down here look for that pullback to be a buyer on a stall, or closer to the 33-31 area if possible

Aug 18, 2011 14:11:23 PM EST
mike: 38.25 held, that's key now, need to stay over that and push higher

Aug 18, 2011 14:13:53 PM EST
mike: those who are long are so eager to hold on when the upside run stalls out. It still looks like holding around the 38 area is necessary to avoid another test of the 33-31 area. 40.50 looks like good resistance

Aug 18, 2011 14:22:09 PM EST
mike: for now it's a trading range between 1143 and 1137, with 1140 as a support midpoint that should hold you going to move higher

Aug 18, 2011 14:32:21 PM EST
mike: a pop up to test that 1143.75 bounce high will be a shortage opportunity, if they can get back up there and then stall or show some rejection. 38.50 area needs to hold, and then a push over 40 needs to stay...

Aug 18, 2011 14:37:18 PM EST
mike: should get another poll back here, or shorts get squeezed for several more points before reversing

Aug 18, 2011 14:44:23 PM EST
mike: at least until the last hour, expect the bounce is to fail under 1143.75, he moved back up towards 4150 area should be the max bounce this gets a staying week

Aug 18, 2011 14:49:26 PM EST
mike: they need to bounce here soon, otherwise back down towards 1133-1131 major area

Aug 18, 2011 14:53:47 PM EST
mike: 38.50 is now key resistance, if unable to get over that and hold, market is vulnerable. A third test of the 1133 area would be "must hold" to avoid further damage in a move down towards 1128 or lower

Aug 18, 2011 15:00:45 PM EST
mike: they should go fo1131.00, it looks like market still in trouble in less than 38 area gets cleared/held on a dip, head to look like that's going to happen

Aug 18, 2011 15:14:33 PM EST
mike: it's still an ugly market. If they can't get back over 1135 and stick over that level, thanks just aren't right and more downside in the cards

Aug 18, 2011 15:24:45 PM EST
mike: the market stays under pressure as long as the ES stays under 1134-1135 area

Aug 18, 2011 15:25:23 PM EST
mike: I'm going to call it a day here, 1128 was just miss so far but could be seen yet on this leg down, maybe lower

Aug 18, 2011 15:25:37 PM EST
mike: have a great rest of the day

** I'm sorry, but I didn't get the log uploaded for the past 2 days due to computer problems **

Monday August 15, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 15-09:20) mike: per last night update 1186.00-1186.75 key early / 80-79 supp, pivotal below

(Aug 15-09:25) mike: housing mkt number at 10am.

(Aug 15-09:33) mike: 86.50 needs held, 1190.50-1192.00 resist

(Aug 15-09:36) mike: 90.75 sold. 88 area need held , but a top in for a pullback

(Aug 15-09:42) mike: 88.75-88.25 zone is supp tht should/ must hold on a dip.

(Aug 15-09:44) mike: 93 needs exceeded / held soon ,

(Aug 15-09:49) mike: 93 high was sold dn to 1190. that 1190 is the key, need held over to get test of or higher high

(Aug 15-09:55) mike: got test of high, it was sold. econ data in 4 minutes,

(Aug 15-10:03) mike: little dbl top possible. 89.50 needs bought on a dip . if dbl top exceeded, 1197.75-1198.50 next resist

(Aug 15-10:04) mike: feeble off 89.50, back in 15 min

(Aug 15-10:23) mike: the ES needs to hold over 94 area, or turn right up if broken, if we're going to see the 1200 area today

(Aug 15-10:26) mike: we have a trend up move going, a pullback from this resistance needs to hold at 1194 to avoid a failure

(Aug 15-10:38) mike: I think the trend up move may be just about over. They held at 1194.25, if that level is broken then a bounce that follows should be sold. Another rejection of 97 could set that in gear. Should be good, or at least pivotal support at 1190. If they have a decent pullback

(Aug 15-10:46) mike: staying under other 94. It is negative, it will take a move over 1194 that holds to get this turned backup

(Aug 15-11:01) mike: pull back to the 1190 till area when the popover 94 was quickly reversed. It still bearish staying under 94-95 area, down to the 87.00-86.50 zone

(Aug 15-11:03) mike: weaker NQ may be able to pull the market lower. 2200 resistance there and 1193.50 on the ES

(Aug 15-11:11) mike: 86.50-86.50 area could be in the cards here in the next 15-30 minutes as long the NQ stays weak, or we get a reversal back up if the 93.25 area is pushed through on a bounce and sticks

(Aug 15-11:23) mike: they dropped down to 86.75 so far, need a move over 90.50-91.00 area where this is in some trouble, don't expect a bounce pop-up to stick

(Aug 15-11:27) mike: if they hold under 1186, then odds are we are headed back towards 1180-1178 area. To avoid that, and didn't this downtrend, first 1189 needs exceeded, then on up through the 1190.50-1191.00 area which looks like it's key here now

(Aug 15-11:40) mike: 88 reached, 86 now needs to hold to try for 1190

(Aug 15-11:55) mike: lunchtime rally started, 88 was held at 1190 reached on this bounce. it's kind of stalling here. A reversal back down through 1188 would start a drop to test or break the low

(Aug 15-12:02) mike: it's a two-sided day with an upside bias, so far -1191 could give the pullback, if not up towards 94 or so. In any case,. If 1188 breaks,then 86 should be kind of key, a stall could give a higher low and set up a bullish pattern

(Aug 15-12:13) mike: 1188 reached and held so far. I'll bounce needs to push through 1192, which looks doubtful. A move up there should be sold if it has no strength to push right through 1192 and not stall out

(Aug 15-12:24) mike: computer problems have to reboot....be right back

(Aug 15-12:46) mike: okay, all straightened out and only missed a 3 point move, which was happening in a few seconds (minutes at most) last week. It looks like a pullback to 1191 needs to hold and to turn right back up if tested./The 94.50-95.56 resistance

(Aug 15-12:54) mike: turn dried-up from just above 91 level and it looks like 93 is a trend up support that needs to hold on to the next pullback.

(Aug 15-13:03) mike: that might be close to a test of high as going to get. 93.50-93.00 is a transition area on the upside, now is key support on a pullback.

(Aug 15-13:12) mike: it should be it for a bounce, 93. Now resistance on a pop-up, 88 level that held earlier is a key area to hold now to stay away from going back to test the lows

(Aug 15-13:31) mike: not much excitement or quality trade setups today. Couple good turns from a support or resistance, but the market is just meandering around acting top heavy. I dropped down to 89 area as possible if that 91.50 not defended

(Aug 15-13:42) mike: if the market is going to keep trying to chop higher,and not make a topping pattern, then the ES needs to get back over 95 and not rehearse, those bounces that stall are shorting opportunities but just for a scalp trade on the other side of the coin if they drop back to the 91.50-90.50 area, they will need to bounce right back. If that doesn't happen, then thanks change and we can go back towards 88 again

(Aug 15-13:52) mike: time to start looking for a potential swing trade, the bounces have been failing, the action is changing a bit, indicator should be close to overbought across the board. A chance to see 1200 still, but that should At off if we do happen to get that far. The only way this breaks this afternoon is if the 1190 area is broken, not quickly reversed, or there is a failure/reversal from slightly higher prices

(Aug 15-14:03) mike: staying over 94 can get this have a squeeze up towards the 1200 area, just needs a good push through 1197

(Aug 15-14:05) mike: a quick drop towards 95.00-94.50 should hold if the upside is going to continue here

(Aug 15-14:13) mike: they tried once to pop up from 94.75, need to do so here or a double top could be in place. If they can hold that then the ES has a chance still to try for 1200, but doubt that area would stick on the first attempt

(Aug 15-14:30) mike: should see 1200 tested it can hold over 97, that area looks key now

(Aug 15-14:38) mike: if they happen to test the high now, it should be with less momentum, and we did see rejection up there.. Were going to make a high around that area, or slightly above is still not impossible, but time tostart looking for their run ups to stall out to set up a short

(Aug 15-14:43) mike: so far buyers refusing to give it up, 97 area should be key year, same with the 94.50 area on the bottom side on a drop

(Aug 15-14:52) mike: if they're going to make 1200 or just above, then it will have to be on this move, or at worst hold up here above 1197 were so going into the close. From here the upside getting limited, a selloff should start from up there if reached and reversed, if not today than tomorrow morning

(Aug 15-14:58) mike: NQ has tried to take leadership on upside, and can, 2199-2198. Needs to hold their heads for support. ES needs to stay over 96 to attempt a push higher here

(Aug 15-15:02) mike: one hour to go, market at its highs, would expect either a late day pullback if they don't hurry up and push over the 98.50 level pretty soon

(Aug 15-15:07) mike: should get to 1200 here, the zone is 1200.50-1202.00 on the ES

(Aug 15-15:11) mike: need to stay over 96.25 or this could be over with

(Aug 15-15:18) mike: a selloff should come from that 1200 area, I would like to see it reach today or tomorrow in the early going would be better.. To change that trend there needs to be a pullback of 4 points on the ES, that would be better confirmation that a short-term hike could be either in place or forming.

(Aug 15-15:27) mike: 1200 was touched and rejected instantly. I'm scaling in to the short position, small to begin with 97-99 area on the first part

(Aug 15-15:29) mike: 96.00 is a four-point pullback, a late drop down towards1192-1190 area in 96 is broken and not quickly reversed

(Aug 15-15:40) mike: a drop from the 1200 resistance held the 1196, which was so far just another pullback in an uptrend, though the uptrend may not have far to go. That range is likely key in the late going, a breakout over 1200 that takes him up to 1202, or a break under 1196 takes him down to 1194.50-1194.00 area. Have a good rest of the day

Friday August 12, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Aug 12, 2011 10:06:36 AM EST
mike: bounce off yest close. , if broken 1 more drop to 65-64 area, but good resist to clear/ hold over 78.50 area.

Aug 12, 2011 10:06:48 AM EST
mike: back in 20 min

Aug 12, 2011 10:52:53 AM EST
mike: bounces are not sticking watch the 76 area for a transition/resistance on a bounce. A drop down to 1167 needs to be quickly reversed, it is bigger trend support, 60 EMA on five-minute chart

Aug 12, 2011 10:55:39 AM EST
mike: 75.50-76.25 area is the bounce resistance./

Aug 12, 2011 11:03:28 AM EST
mike: 76.25was sold, need a break of 73 area to go lower,

Aug 12, 2011 11:04:47 AM EST
mike: 72.50, and that must hold. Keep an eye on the NQ, it might be losing its luster

Aug 12, 2011 11:10:32 AM EST
mike: around 76. Is key, will need to push about that and hold it on a pullback, otherwise we need to see buying come in again on a test of the 71 area. That's just above the key trends support, help twice so far

Aug 12, 2011 11:24:34 AM EST
mike: they just can't hold gains, better opportunities on the short side when the upside momentum dies out. A bounce back towards 77 should be sold

Aug 12, 2011 11:25:34 AM EST
mike: building a wedge type pattern also, 73. Needs to hold court could break towards 68 area

Aug 12, 2011 11:32:55 AM EST
mike: ES held at 73.50, and reached 77 on a bounce. This is where the selling has come from over the last 30 minutes, 75. Holds it can get a push higher

Aug 12, 2011 11:35:04 AM EST
mike: need a hold at 76 or above, or will have a reversal. It should hold up we'll see

Aug 12, 2011 11:38:52 AM EST
mike: a pullback should stay over 1178., That 83. Is the next resistance on this move

Aug 12, 2011 11:45:31 AM EST
mike: reached the 83 target/resistance,81-80 looks like that support

Aug 12, 2011 11:54:20 AM EST
mike: the 83-82.50 should be good support, to keep this going. It would take a break of that area to upset the up trend. Not really expecting us to hold all day without a decent pullback

Aug 12, 2011 11:59:12 AM EST
mike: 82.50 help so far, but this sets up a topping pattern, next bounce is a short essay reach 1186 area and reverse

Aug 12, 2011 12:03:40 AM EST
mike: 85.75 was sold,so far, no reversal occurs unless that 82.50 area is broken though. If you slow up there keep it tight leash on shorts for now, nothing bad happens in less they go down and take out 82.50

Aug 12, 2011 12:06:21 AM EST
mike: I need to be away for just a bit. Be back in about 10 or 15 minutes at the most

Aug 12, 2011 12:17:20 AM EST
mike: we have a lunch time high in place, a bounce from here will be sold.. It's the 84.50-85.00 area that's key on the upside, a bounce that stalls around that area should be sold. If they hold under 82 area and pressure should be on

Aug 12, 2011 12:23:54 AM EST
mike: this pullback can last for a while, needs to get over that 83 area that was resistance earlier that hold above that. It's resistance right now

Aug 12, 2011 12:25:21 AM EST
mike: they moved down to the 77-76. It's possible that this gets a bit more momentum by breaking under 1180 and holding, needs to bounce from their war we have some trouble

Aug 12, 2011 12:32:40 AM EST
mike: back at 81 area is a sell,77 or lower is in the cards

Aug 12, 2011 12:37:31 AM EST
mike: the sell at 81 is just a scalp, we might see 82 but should failif this is going to pull back down more time

Aug 12, 2011 12:38:11 AM EST
mike: take two points if you can get them here on a scalpel off 81

Aug 12, 2011 12:39:49 AM EST
mike: shorts are working better now, it will take a push over the 81.50 level and hold on a dip to get out of this downtrend to the 77-76area or lower

Aug 12, 2011 12:59:41 AM EST
mike: the 77 target/support has held so far and that is key now. I think a high is in for the day, don't expect the bounces to stick, a run-up towards the highs, or lower, should set up another good shorting opportunity. Not crazy about the long side unless we see levels quite a bit lower than here, if not today then early next week

Aug 12, 2011 13:18:49 PM EST
mike: they could only get to 81.75 on the bounce, that area has been kind of pivotal.

Aug 12, 2011 13:23:54 PM EST
mike: they can't continue to hold up, bounces are easily sold into without much upside progress

Aug 12, 2011 13:39:40 PM EST
mike: lunchtime selloff was over, this bounce could get over 1182 and try for a test of the high. The 1177 level from early is still support, and also now the 60. EMA on the five-minute chart is right at 1176 (and a rising) and key support the rest of the day

Aug 12, 2011 13:42:31 PM EST
mike: a pullback should hold 1180, if they get back there and hold them look for an entry for a bounce. It really shouldn't get back there, around 82-81.25 is about as far as this should dip

Aug 12, 2011 13:54:59 PM EST
mike: if they can stay over 82 we could get another push towards 86, but that 82 need to hold in the NQ needs to pushover 2191

Aug 12, 2011 13:57:51 PM EST
mike: they rollover, not really good if 82 is not defended, instead broken and held under

Aug 12, 2011 14:02:47 PM EST
mike: while 86 could be in the cards, 82 was broken but quickly reversed. this will say in bullish mode as long as that area not broken/held

Aug 12, 2011 14:15:24 PM EST
mike: I happened fast. Resistance around 82.50 should be sold

Aug 12, 2011 14:18:58 PM EST
mike: 79 area resistance

Aug 12, 2011 14:20:29 PM EST
mike: the market wants to remind us how fast it can drop. Expect a bounce from down here to be sold into. They could go down to the 72-70. Which is a more key support level below

Aug 12, 2011 14:23:03 PM EST
mike: we have a double tops on the NQ and the Dow cash, missed that high area on the ES. Bounces should fail below those high levels. It would just be a retracement in a new downtrend it appears, since the 77 level was cleanly broken

Aug 12, 2011 14:28:22 PM EST
mike: 78.50-79.50 is as far as far as a bouncer should go to keep the downtrend intact

Aug 12, 2011 14:36:10 PM EST
mike: a short covering bounce off of the 73.area, thus 77.50area is turning into resistance now that needs cleared and held. 77 area looks kind of pivotal to get over and hold on a pullback. If that happens, we get a little run up not to break the double top. The market is under pressure under that 77.50 area

Aug 12, 2011 14:39:41 PM EST
mike: keep an eye on the NQ, it's been weaker in pulling the ES with it

Aug 12, 2011 14:40:27 PM EST
mike: if a breakthrough for 72-70 target here on down to the 64.50 area as possible

Aug 12, 2011 14:41:16 PM EST
mike: 67.50 would be the target, my mistake. 72 hit on the nose so far, might be it for a little run higher

Aug 12, 2011 14:47:27 PM EST
mike: the low at 72.25 was made right at 2:40 PM, the time of day for a reversal. I doubt it's going get too far however, since all of the bounces have been sold into. I think we need a drop back towards 1167 or lower so before this can make a rally effort that can stick.

Aug 12, 2011 14:51:11 PM EST
mike: it has been one crazy week, I'm just about tuckered out doing so many updates. I'm going to call it a week in about 10 minutes. Don't trust us on the long side, it might rally but I don't see us in a strong position without doing some good pullback first

Aug 12, 2011 15:04:15 PM EST
mike: must have a lot of shorts still in the market to be squeezed. The market will be safe if they pull that stays over 1175. If that is broken, then we can either had lower and break 72, or hold there and then turn up and give another bounce. The resistance now have 1180 each cleared or will get that pullback.

Aug 12, 2011 15:04:55 PM EST
mike: have a great weekend! I will "see" you here on Monday morning. Take care

 

Thursday August 11, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 11-09:21) mike: big moves overnight, mkt trying to find a bottom. if 1108 area tested, should be as far as a drop goes

(Aug 11-09:23) mike: 1134.00-1135.00 rejected and thats pivotal it looks per last nights update

(Aug 11-09:25) mike: only a few updates until after 10:15 or so...

(Aug 11-09:38) mike: high in

(Aug 11-09:39) mike: if not then 42.50-44.00 area, 1130 area supp need held

(Aug 11-09:41) mike: 36 need cleared/ held

(Aug 11-09:43) mike: 35.75 sold, a drop to 30 needs reversed up. back in 30 min or so

(Aug 11-10:15) mike: that 1136 area has been a lid, but decent bid on the pullbacks so far, so as long as 1130 area holds this can try to chop higher

(Aug 11-10:16) mike: 35.50area needs to be bought on a dip now

(Aug 11-10:27) mike: should pullback from 46 area here, if 41 area reached that needs to be turned right back up

(Aug 11-10:30) mike: later up from 45.75 down to 40.50, turned right back up. That 41.50-39.50 area is key support to avoid a reversal

(Aug 11-10:40) mike: if 1140 broken and held them back in trouble, up here the 48 level needs push through and then hold on a pullback well over 1140

(Aug 11-10:44) mike: there has been some selling into strength this morning, but then on a pullback there has been good buying come in. Right now the market will be out of trouble unless 1140 is broken.

(Aug 11-10:45) mike: need to watch 1149.50 area for resistance. The 46.00-45.50 area looks like it must hold for that looks like rejection that resistance

(Aug 11-10:48) mike: market stays in trend up mode unless 1146.50-1146.00 area is broken now. There is resistance at the 1152 area, but the big area today is still up at 1158 area

(Aug 11-10:55) mike: this is a good, unless 48. Or just below and hold. they need tostay here and run up to take out 57.25. If not then we have another inside day on the ES, and the market would still not be out of trouble short-term.

(Aug 11-10:57) mike: it looks like they failed for now, a bounce back to test the 54 area that turns back down sets up a shorting opportunity

(Aug 11-10:59) mike: 48 area, then down at 46.50-46.00 are the support before the key 1140 area,

(Aug 11-11:07) mike: if no double top, or a 1-2-3 top pattern, then this can attempt 1157.25-1158 area. If they get their and no sign of a turn that down, and a shot at the 1164 area. I need to be away for about 10 minutes or so, looks like 1150 key right now

(Aug 11-11:26) mike: 1140 area is in the cards, need to turn up from there. 48 is resistance now, will need cleared/held to avoid trouble

(Aug 11-11:42) mike: back to poor market action, all the bounces have failed since reaching the top at 1154.25, then buying comes in around the 43 .50-42.50 zone. They don't seem to like it up there around 1150.50-1152.00 area, so look for selling if they get back up there and stall outs. Could also scalp long off of the 43 area but this is acting a bit like yesterday, though the results may not end up being the same

(Aug 11-11:57) mike: they have been dropping back from up here, a move down to 48 needs to bounce right back, or back down towards 43 area

(Aug 11-12:05) mike: they dropped down to 45.75 and turned up, expect this bounce to fail also, especially a test of 50.75-51.50 that is rejected

(Aug 11-12:12) mike: a turn at resistance, again...even though we have a number of reversals up here, but hold on pullbacks of 6.50-7.25 points pullbacks. This one looks like the same deal, if you sold that resistance to onverstay, a drop of more than seven points or so off the high needed to change the dynamics.

(Aug 11-12:19) mike: this action is "easier" to trade than the Friday, Monday, and Tuesday generations... where not having the huge one or two minute fast moves that quickly reverse... Look for a pullback to the 4650-45.75. as key support up here...hold over 52 area needed to get this from being a top, and instead go for the 57-58.

(Aug 11-12:39) mike: if they can stay over 1149 area, they might have a chance to try to break out, which would give a move towards 1157.25-1158.00 area

(Aug 11-12:43) mike: 51.50-50.50 shouldn't be broken if this is going to continue higher towards the 57-58 area, possibly further

(Aug 11-12:46) mike: they should take out 57.25 being this close, a pullback to 52.75 needs to hold now

(Aug 11-12:49) mike: we should see them pull back from just under 59, 54-53 key support

(Aug 11-12:53) mike: a rejection of a key resistance, buyers will back off soon and it dropped down to that 53 area, not much further than that, would need to hold them on a pullback.

(Aug 11-12:54) mike: actually now it's the 55 level that should need to hold, it's also dynamic support on the one minute chart

(Aug 11-13:01) mike: don't fight this move, just yet or unless it's a scalp, as right now the market will stay in good shape-trend up type of action-unless/until first 59.50 is broken, but the key area is now at 55-54

(Aug 11-13:05) mike: they need to balance here, even if so I think that this move is about over and a decent pullback should occur

(Aug 11-13:09) mike: so far the pullback to 58.00-57.25 area has held as support, if they slide back under that area and don't turn right back up there we have a decent pullback, holding for a test of high unless broken, but that high should be sold

(Aug 11-13:28) mike: this pullback needs to bounce off of 55.50-55.00 area at the lowest, 56.50 first, need to hold to get another rally attempt going and not break the trend up action. Stay with buying dips unless there is a break. A high that stalls or reverses can set up a short trade, just a quick scale though

(Aug 11-13:40) mike: if there is another popup to 64 area if they sell

(Aug 11-13:45) mike: it's over now look for the 52-50.50 area for a bounce, it should be a sell on a decent bounce here that stalls

(Aug 11-13:59) mike: I need to be a way for 20 or 30 minutes, my apologies, I'm still looking at that 1152 .00-1150.50 area that was a resistance for 90 minutes before breaking out. This last pullback held just above that area. So that should be pivotal. If this rally stalls and reverses from around 1165, that could be a reversal area. But would expect the pullback/reaction to find buyers around that 52.00-50.50 zone at the lowest that this is going to avoid some trouble late in the day

(Aug 11-14:34) mike: a 1 to 3 top was made, 62 needs to hold or could drop another 10 points towards 52

(Aug 11-14:36) mike: it's still a trend up day unless 62 area breaks, however there was good selling just under 1170 so that should be hard to get through, can trade the short side from here it looks

(Aug 11-14:41) mike: they need to push over 65 and hold, or top end up here

(Aug 11-14:53) mike: strength is being sold, then dip bought. This will stay trend of unless that 62 area has broken and not quickly reversed. There should be selling near the highs however

(Aug 11-14:56) mike: if they don't have trouble on a test of the high,like they should, but instead can push through it with some gusto, they move up to 74.50-75.50 area could be in the cards on this leg up

(Aug 11-15:02) mike: 74.50-75.50 still possible if 68.50 area can hold

(Aug 11-15:11) mike: 75.25 was right in the zone and now the 1168 area is a key support late day here, must turn up their or a top is in at resistance

(Aug 11-15:16) mike: if they stay over 72 and keep pushing, 1178 next and then 1184.50-1185

(Aug 11-15:26) mike: 78 reached, could push higher but I doubt they can get to or through that 84.50-85.00. That rejection from just under 1180 could be meaningful

(Aug 11-15:33) mike: still trend up above 1175, the NQ taking leadership late. Have a good rest of the day

Wednesday August 10, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 10-09:26) mike: i need to be away most of first 60 min or so, a few updates only till after

(Aug 10-09:27) mike: 49.50-50.50 r1

(Aug 10-09:40) mike: 1133.50-1132.50 key, a break gives 25-23 area/43 area resist, 48.50-49.50 key resist

(Aug 10-09:46) mike: 43 holding, 48.50-49.50 reversal area

(Aug 10-09:48) mike: 48.50-49.50 key resist, needs cleared soon or 43 breaks, that 43 key support

(Aug 10-09:51) mike: high at resist, lower low

(Aug 10-09:53) mike: 11000 dow cash, 1149 ES both need cleared/held or still vulnerable

(Aug 10-09:54) mike: back in 30 min

(Aug 10-10:30) mike: they need to push it over 1134, and hold on a dip, just to try getting the outside going. If they test the high, that should be sold but may not get that far. 1128 needs to hold here to not go back towards the low

(Aug 10-10:32) mike: the 34 area needs to hold now

(Aug 10-10:36) mike: it needs to get another go here soon without taking out 1134, even if held, next bounce should fail

(Aug 10-10:39) mike: they dropped to 32.50 but turned up fast, also keep an eye on 2091 on the NQ. That is the key to holding this up

(Aug 10-10:41) mike: this bounce gets sold around the 1140. Here.
(Aug 10-10:41) mike: if not, 1144 and the cards

(Aug 10-10:43) mike: 40 level rejected twice, should go down to 34 area and see if it can avoid breaking down

(Aug 10-10:45) mike: a 9.75 point move in three minutes, that 1140 is not key resistance on a bounce

(Aug 10-10:46) mike: they should go for 1128,

(Aug 10-10:48) mike: 28.50 pullbacks low so far, even if they can bounce from here it should fail under 1140,

(Aug 10-10:58) mike: that 34 should be back as some kind of resistance

(Aug 10-10:59) mike: 33.75 was sold look for 28 or so again for some support

(Aug 10-11:02) mike: bounces have turned back from resistance at 1140 area, and again on the bounce to the 1134 level. Those failures are good, if 1122 breaks, we could go back to the 1110 area on this leg down

(Aug 10-11:07) mike: hardly a bounce off of a lower low, don't expect the upside to get too far before it sold again

(Aug 10-11:10) mike: stay with selling bounces unless they get over 1134, back in about 10 minutes

(Aug 10-11:23) mike: another tradable short off of 1134, stay with that side unless/until broken

(Aug 10-11:25) mike: pressure is on under 28.50 to break the llow

(Aug 10-11:33) mike: if this doesn't reverse from 31 area, could see 34 again. That's now a breakout area, potentially

(Aug 10-11:35) mike: 29.75 rejected this time. Just to take some pressure off, that 1131 will need to be exceeded

(Aug 10-11:38) mike: the first reaction on a breakdown should come from around 1118-1116 area, it can happen as long as they stay under 1126.50

(Aug 10-11:38) mike: 1128 at the maximum

(Aug 10-11:39) mike: 26.50it is, books key here to make or break

(Aug 10-11:42) mike: 1128 it's the resistance now that meets cleared to take off some pressure, in this choppy range down here

(Aug 10-11:45) mike: as long as 25.00-24.50 is held on a pullback, then this choppy action can continue. It still takes a move over 1134 that holds to get out of trouble for a while

(Aug 10-11:52) mike: small bounce off of 26.50, just over that 25 area that needs to hold. If they can't get a run out to stick soon, or that 25 global breaks, market and get sold off again, and 1122.50 would be key to avoid that breakdown

(Aug 10-11:56) mike: next pullback should be bought,but it has to hold around 31

(Aug 10-11:58) mike: this drop stay over 31 level, otherwise back towards 28 area

(Aug 10-12:06) mike: it held at 30.75, pretty close, and then shot right up to 38.50 so far. That 31 is now a key support on a pullback as we have a lunchtime rally attempt underway. 1140 should give a pullback, but if broken then 42-43 would be next before a pullback

(Aug 10-12:14) mike: 1140 was rejected again but if 33.75 isn't broken, stair step up can continue... otherwise, if broken, then back down towards 31 or lower. I need to be away for about 30 minutes, my apologies

(Aug 10-12:43) mike: 35 r

(Aug 10-12:57) mike: 32 supp now

(Aug 10-12:59) mike: 40 still major

(Aug 10-13:02) mike: 35 key s

(Aug 10-13:30) mike: lots of volatility inside this range. They still need a move over 1140, and hold that, to get a good run up going. Otherwise it is a sell the bounce and get out on a dip, scalper market

(Aug 10-13:37) mike: this is winding up tight, late day volatility is very likely. .a good bid on dips, and they could offer around 40. A test of the 28 area should hold, if not then the 22 area where the ES based out before pushing higher to 1140 again.

(Aug 10-13:49) mike: 48 to hold now has a good support

(Aug 10-13:56) mike: 41 .00 and then 41.50 help on dips, 1148 as a small resistance. A pullback from there Nice to say over 1144, or it starts to look like a reversal

(Aug 10-14:00) mike: they went down to 1143 then turned up right away. Still in reverse around 48, need a break up the trend now at 1143

(Aug 10-14:07) mike: still pretty good one minute moves, we have a good trend intact and now 47 .50 is support

(Aug 10-14:12) mike: 1158 the next on the upside.-Spend a trend to move since 1:20 PM, a 50 area kind of key support now

(Aug 10-14:19) mike: reverse off of 57.25, just under the 58 level, a drop down to 41-40 area could be in the cards if the 47 area is not held. A bounce from here should be sold at or under 1158

(Aug 10-14:27) mike: if the market is going to roll over it will do so here in the form of a 123 top

(Aug 10-14:28) mike: but 56 lower high shouldn't be exceeded now

(Aug 10-14:33) mike: this can keep going to break the 47.50 key support if they take out 50

(Aug 10-14:34) mike: pressure on under 54,

(Aug 10-14:35) mike: found towards the 41-40 area...if this cuts through the 47.50 and doesn't quickly turn

(Aug 10-14:42) mike: they topped just under the 58 resistance, pulled back to 47.50, bounced to a lower high at 1156, then reversed to make a 123 top. Pull that off that high reach 44.75 so far, but if it stays under 1150 the pressure is still on, but still see the 41-40 area given recent volatility

(Aug 10-14:51) mike: 41-40 is still in the cards here, must have a reversal there or trouble

(Aug 10-14:58) mike: they reached 41.25, that area needs to be bid up keep the market from having a bad end to the day. A move up to tests that 58 resistance should not happen, but if it does somehow, it should be sold

(Aug 10-15:07) mike: this could go down to test the 31 area if a breakthrough 1138 and can't turn back up. Need to see good strong buying, start around 1138 if touched

(Aug 10-15:08) mike: looks like 31 area in the cards as long as it stays under 41 now

(Aug 10-15:09) mike: 34 is the minimum target then if broken down to 31 or lower

(Aug 10-15:20) mike: there is support hat the 30 area, and around 2088 on the NQ, both of those need to hold. I'm not crazy about the long side but can scale long off of those

(Aug 10-15:25) mike: I'm calling it a day. If you have any feedback please let me hear it. I thought I was doing a pretty good job catching the turns recently, but it just curious how you are doing in this market

(Aug 10-15:26) mike: anyhow, have a good rest of your day

(Aug 10-15:34) mike: a move that breaks 25.25 would mean the market still in trouble

(Aug 10-15:35) mike: and could go back to 1122.50-11 21.50 area. And if that goes than 1110, take care

Tuesday August 09, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 9-9:19) mike: 1133.50-1134.50 resist , key early. 1122-1120 supp /

(Aug 9-9:29) mike: if they pull back to 28 area, look for bounce back. transition/ pivotal area

(Aug 9-9:31) mike: 38 key r early

(Aug 9-10:01) mike: 33.00-32.00 supp needs held now

(Aug 9-10:09) mike: still just a bounce if no break/ hold over 49.00-49.50 area , 35 needs held now

(Aug 9-10:10) mike: back in 20 min or so

(Aug 9-10:53) mike: 45.00-43.50 is support now, 49.00-49.50 is a major area still, a sell area, or reversal area, if the move is just an oversold bounce

(Aug 9-10:55) mike: 43.50 is the key level now, a bounce from there back to test the high so for, a failure starts a rollover

(Aug 9-11:00) mike: staying under 1146 should keep pressure on now that this is rolling over

(Aug 9-11:03) mike: look for 38 for some support, cover spot on a short taken

(Aug 9-11:07) mike: resistance at the 43.00-43.75 area on this bounce. If that fails there, we could break under 1135 which would be a negative

(Aug 9-11:100 mike: this is turning into a bad pattern that can break down, only a move back over the 43 area that holds can keep this out of trouble

(Aug 9-11:12) mike: for now the oversold bounce is over. A bounce that stalls is a short

(Aug 9-11:29) mike: we can get a test of the high if they stay over 1140. A reversal of there would give a 123 top pattern. the change today is that, so far the dips are being bought.. A pullback that holds 1140 should be bought

(Aug 9-11:33) mike: I need to be away about 10 minutes, it looks like a bounce has to come from 1141 or thereabouts, otherwise a test of 45 will be sold

(Aug 9-12:02) mike: just about to the key resistance, it looks like it could push through. In any case a pullback needs to hold around 1145 to keep trend up intact

(Aug 9-12:11) mike: it has been a trend up for the most part, the ES just rejected the key resistance but pullback to 1145 was held. I think 1145 needs broken to have a high end place. However if this stays trend up into around 2 PM, just before the Fed release at 2:15 PM, reversal tends to occur on a Fed day

(Aug 9-12:20) mike: they are holding 1145, but if they pop up and stall/reverse again (there is already a very small double top there at resistance) then it's a short period if 1145 breaks, then down to the 1140 area which is a stronger support area.

(Aug 9-12:44) mike: for attempts have failed under 1149 area, and the NQ it's dropping off now also. It's a short up there with a fairly tight stop

(Aug 9-12:50) mike: now we have pressure on under 45.50 area, the 41-40 area should be seen

(Aug 9-12:57) mike: from 11:30 AM until just before noon the 1141.00-1140 .00 area acted as support, just before the push up to the major resistance today, and now is a must hold to keep from rolling back over again going into Fed release

(Aug 9-13:04) mike: should be resistance at 41 area now

(Aug 9-13:08) mike: 1138 was a logical support area, needs to hold on a pullback, the 43 area is next decent resistance, and if pushed through that up to the 45 area where the break occurred

(Aug 9-13:17) mike: 43 area was turned back. It looks like up 41 level is like a pivot here, a break under that takes him back down to 38 or lower. A hold and there is potential for one more pop up

(Aug 9-13:28) mike: right down to 41 and trying to hold off of the 43 area. If 41 breaks, then a drop down to 38 or lower is likely. If they get back over 1143 area, a test of the 1149 area one more time is possible. We have the Fed release in 45 minutes. You don't have to trade this chop. Should be easier days ahead if this is not for you. Right now I favor shorts under the 43 area

(Aug 9-13:55) mike: shorts are back in control, the 1137 area now resistance

(Aug 9-13:58) mike: the 28 area needs to hold or be reversed, or we have bigger trouble again. They opened at 1138, and that looks like it's a pivotal area now if there is a decent bounce from down here

(Aug 9-2011 14:05) mike: the market has had plenty of fast, back-and-forth moves the last couple of weeks. So after the Fed release we should have a quick "up down up" type of pattern, or vice versa, and then possibly a trend to move after that. I still consider a 43 area has good resistance, and if cleared we still have the key resistance at 1149.00-1149.50. There should be support around 1128, and if that isn't held them down to1124-1122 area. It's acting like ounces are going to continue to fail for now

(Aug 09-14:14) mike: you could make a run up/head fake and that should be sold into, especially if they pop up to around 38-40 area and then turn. Just let things work out for a bit, then see if a trait sets up. I probably won't update for a bit after the release

(Aug 09-14:25) mike: a run up to around 1128--1130 area that stalls would be a short. Holding over 1110 is extremely important

(Aug 09-14:28) mike: they went just a bit higher then thought, a pullback needs to stay over 1124 area to get another push higher, else dropped towards 1110 again

(Aug 09-14:34) mike: the 24 level was broken, this can drift back down to test 11 10 area if they hold under 1124

(Aug 09-14:47) mike: this has turned ugly again, one support was reached, but 1114 is as far as they bounce should go

(Aug 09-14:55) mike: they went from 1113.50 down to 1108.00, and pushed through that 1114 level. Volatility still big, looks like a 14-13. Needs to hold

(Aug 09-15:03) mike: many traders are on the sidelines, and that's increasing the volatility... You can tell by the thin bids and offers on the dome DOM. This move has resistance at 23.50-24.50, a stall there should bring in selling

(Aug 09-15:16) mike: From 22.75 down to 17.00, a 5.75 point move off of "resistance" that's not even noticeable looking at the chart. as long as a pullback holds that 23 area now, otr down to 1117 at worst, the Bulls are in charge the rest of the day

(Aug 09-15:26) mike: 31.00-30 .50 is now support, and then let 23 area if broken. This could run up to 1144 if they can rally off of that 31 area, if not held them down to1123 area

(Aug 09-15:38) mike: a small double top at 41.50 area, if 30.50 is broken and not quickly reversed,, then this could roll over. Other wise a run up to 1144 still possible. I'd be careful while up there, we did have a reversal at resistance today, and a new low for the move. To look good the ES will need to say over 1138 on the close

(Aug 09-15:39) mike: have a good rest of the day.

Monday August 08, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Aug 8, 2011 9:26:03 AM EST
mike: ES about 30 pts under fair value, we could get a good bounce from lower , but bounces shouldn't stick, 75-76 r, 85 area big r today

Aug 8, 2011 9:39:33 AM EST
mike: good run up, dbl bottom to defend now at 1163-1162. 71-70 area key sup. 79 area r now, then 85 key

Aug 8, 2011 9:50:18 AM EST
mike: 79 area sold, 71 key broke , 66 area must give bounce , 74 area pivotal on top

Aug 8, 2011 9:58:29 AM EST
mike: 66 held so far, econ data 1in 1 minute

Aug 8, 2011 10:03:32 AM EST
mike: 1166 on ES, 11200 dow cash both need held or a break down again. bounces shouldn't stick over 1179

Aug 8, 2011 10:10:28 AM EST
mike: 66 still good/ key supp, not good on a break. a bounce that stalls out a short still, need a hold over 74 area

Aug 8, 2011 10:13:33 AM EST
mike: pressure on under 70

Aug 8, 2011 10:19:10 AM EST
mike: 66 area resist now on a bounce, 54-52 zone in the cards.

Aug 8, 2011 10:27:54 AM EST
mike: 62-63 resist on a bounce now. , 66.00-66.50 if its exceeded will be sold . back in 15-20 min

Aug 8, 2011 10:43:53 AM EST
mike: 1158 resistance here

Aug 8, 2011 10:45:02 AM EST
mike: 52 must hold to avoid a test of low

Aug 8, 2011 10:48:35 AM EST
mike: 52 area is key support now, the reversal there a small plus to keep this market from falling apart. 58-60 area is minor resistance here

Aug 8, 2011 10:51:40 AM EST
mike: 59.75 was sold, they need to hold 1154 on this rollback

Aug 8, 2011 10:58:01 AM EST
mike: the bounce high at 1159.75 will need to be cleared/held to avoid more damage. If they break 1154 and hold, then they pushed to test or break the low is likely in the cards

Aug 8, 2011 11:06:48 AM EST
mike: some of the pressure should be off as long as 1150 isn't broken. If this gets over 1158 and holds, then a move up towards 1163.50 as possible.

Aug 8, 2011 11:16:26 AM EST
mike: it went farther than I thought, but volatility is high so it's not really a surprise. This pullback needs to hold around 1162-1160 or we can have another bounce high in place and go for at least 1158 and maybe 1154

Aug 8, 2011 11:24:26 AM EST
mike: should bounce there at 58 to avoid more trouble on the downside

Aug 8, 2011 11:30:31 AM EST
mike: we need to see 1161 cleared/held, or test the lows, or 54 area at least

Aug 8, 2011 11:39:59 AM EST
mike: so far held just over 1154, 1154.50 low. This needs to push over 1158 and hold that on a pullback in order to get a push higher going, still vulnerable unless that happens pretty soon

Aug 8, 2011 11:52:04 AM EST
mike: we are getting some erratic trading action coming into the lunchtime trade. the 61 area has been resistance, and 54.50.

Aug 8, 2011 12:03:58 AM EST
mike: 60.75 was rejected, they drop through 58 which is turning into a pivotal area, and are on their way to testing and may be breaking 1154, if that happens, any bounce that follows should fail. Right now it's still a short on bounces that stall out under 1161

Aug 8, 2011 12:19:32 AM EST
mike: turning into a trend down day, the 57-58 area needs cleared/held, otherwise we stay in download to test 47.50 or low or lower

Aug 8, 2011 12:36:48 AM EST
mike: it looks like 1149.50-1149.00 is going to be key down here, along with 2110-2108 on the NASDAQ. I think we are getting short covering down there, and a decent bounce will be re-shorted

Aug 8, 2011 12:37:31 AM EST
mike: I would avoid longs, it's still eight and a down market until we get any proof of a turn

Aug 8, 2011 12:41:21 AM EST
mike: they have to make it run up over 1152 area, and then have 1152 hold on a pullback, in order to try to get anything going on the upside. Unless that happens, the pressure is on to breakthrough 1147.50

Aug 8, 2011 12:44:03 AM EST
mike: a pullback to 1152 area needs to hold now, 1158 area next resistance

Aug 8, 2011 12:47:29 AM EST
mike: they need to get going from 51 there, at worst. Still don't expect a run-up to stick but it could be a pretty good move for before reversing given this current volatility. The 57-58 sans is key on this amounts, needs to push through next

Aug 8, 2011 12:57:11 AM EST
mike: there ran up off of 51, but didn't stick, and couldn't even get to the 57-58.. They have to get over that area if we're going to try to get a bottom in place, at least for awhile. Markets still trending down unless that's exceeded

Aug 8, 2011 13:06:30 PM EST
mike: the 1155.00-1155.50 area has turned into "a lid" on the upside. It needs to be cleared otherwise still trend down

Aug 8, 2011 13:14:03 PM EST
mike: we're going to break down here

Aug 8, 2011 13:14:39 PM EST
mike: 1142 area is possible, also a number that 1136.

Aug 8, 2011 13:34:28 PM EST
mike: another failed bounce off a low, 1152. Looks kind of pivotal-still. If they go down to test the low, or make a slightly lower low, and reverse, we could get another 5-7point run-up. The 1155.00-1155.50 area is still the key resistance to clear short-term here

Aug 8, 2011 13:42:12 PM EST
mike: 1142 area met, a bounce could occur, but fail again under 47 area, and we could see 1138 or lower if the ES fails at tha 47-48 area

Aug 8, 2011 13:50:57 PM EST
mike: the 1138 area tested, no sign of a decent bounce just yet. it's still a trend down day, the low could be made in the last 15 minutes of stock trading if this continues. The ES will need to get over the 46-47 area now to put a dent in the downside momentum. the last level under 1138 would be down at 1128 level. Under that, not really sure without looking at the ways.

Aug 8, 2011 14:09:25 PM EST
mike: look for a short covering bounce off a new low, a decent bounce could occur, or just pass on on buying, sell the next bounce stalls

Aug 8, 2011 14:18:38 PM EST
mike: it still trim down as long as they stay under 35.50-36.50 zone, not much higher than that, should be reversed to keep this going. the 1128 last line of support just cut through

Aug 8, 2011 14:28:07 PM EST
mike: a 10 point bounce in just two minutes... 27.50-28.00. His resistance, minor

Aug 8, 2011 14:33:20 PM EST
mike: under normal market conditions, I would expect a decent bounce to come off of that low at 1115, but these aren't normal conditions. A decent rally could occur, something like 20 points or so on the ES, but would need to push over 28 and hold that on a pullback to get going, or try to.

Aug 8, 2011 14:35:33 PM EST
mike: 1135.75 is dynamic resistance area for this move to turn down from, otherwise the dynamics change

Aug 8, 2011 14:52:46 PM EST
mike: they reached 34.75 on the bounce, if 1125 not held, then a test of the lows. it looks kind of key to stay over now

Aug 8, 2011 15:09:00 PM EST
mike: that 1115 could be a decent low for a rally that last a day or two, let's see about one day first. A pullback should hold around that area if tested, right now we still have to get over 1135 area, and then stay over 1130 on a pullback

Aug 8, 2011 15:16:29 PM EST
mike: the 45.50-46.50 area is resistance, then the 50.50 area have cleared

Aug 8, 2011 15:18:10 PM EST
mike: 46.50 turned it back, date ranges even on a one minute chart, the 37.50 area looks like pivotal support if they pullback

Aug 8, 2011 15:34:42 PM EST
mike: not impossible for us to see a test of the low with about 15 minutes left in stock trading, or a little less than that. 1130 area is key to hold to avoid that. 1138 and resistance end of day

Aug 8, 2011 15:40:45 PM EST
mike: the 1135-1137 zone will need cleared/held end of day to avoid a late drop. It will take a break of that 1128 that's not quickly reversed to turn this down to test the low.

Aug 8, 2011 16:03:58 PM EST
mike: retesting last 10 minutes of futures trading should have been a call, anyway, Bears win. I hope I kept you on the right side today. Take care

Friday August 05, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Aug 5, 2011 9:29:55 AM EST
mike: 19.50 area resist, 1202.30 supp early.

Aug 5, 2011 9:36:29 AM EST
mike: 15.50 is 60ema on 5 min chart and key this morn

Aug 5, 2011 9:39:20 AM EST
mike: of 08 breaks, 02.25 test , thats key this morn to rally from

Aug 5, 2011 9:46:11 AM EST
mike: 1212 pivotal resist

Aug 5, 2011 9:49:22 AM EST
mike: 02.50 key, else 1200 must hold, 08 resist then 12 key 1

Aug 5, 2011 9:51:28 AM EST
mike: 05 good resist now

Aug 5, 2011 9:53:36 AM EST
mike: 1188.25-1187.50

Aug 5, 2011 9:55:17 AM EST
mike: 1182.00-1181.00 the major area, or a drop to 1168 area

Aug 5, 2011 9:59:01 AM EST
mike: 93.50 resist, then 98.75 .

Aug 5, 2011 10:00:22 AM EST
mike: 82-81 should be seen, must hold there

Aug 5, 2011 10:02:31 AM EST
mike: 1283.00 low, 11300 on dow cash. a break/ hold under that gets ugly. bounces should be sold

Aug 5, 2011 10:09:35 AM EST
mike: low in for a bit anyway just over major 1182 area. 98 area resist, needs cleared, should pullback

Aug 5, 2011 10:16:00 AM EST
mike: very good moves even on 1 min basis, 4.50 point gyration almost ''normal''. 96 good resist, 98 if exceeded. a test of lows need instant reversal up. back in 30 min.

Aug 5, 2011 10:56:12 AM EST
mike: a test of 1193 should be sold, this is a week still

Aug 5, 2011 10:59:25 AM EST
mike: 94.25 will be next, if no turn down from 93

Aug 5, 2011 11:01:22 AM EST
mike: 94.25 was sold, 90.50 is support now that needs to hold

Aug 5, 2011 11:06:19 AM EST
mike: and this environment, it's possible to get three or four points in just a few minutes. Wait for the bounces to stall, then get in and ride it for a few points or sign of a stall at a low. It looks like a test of the lows as possible on this push down

Aug 5, 2011 11:15:31 AM EST
mike: test of the low not bought up at all.--about needs to get over 1189-1190 would need cleared/held to get out of trouble here.

Aug 5, 2011 11:17:45 AM EST
mike: 1284.50-1285.00 is resistance now, if cleared then 1288 area

Aug 5, 2011 11:28:29 AM EST
mike: finally they move with some gusto., 12.75 points in six minutes. Need to stay over 1183 area now

Aug 5, 2011 11:36:07 AM EST
mike: dropped to 82.25 was quickly reversed, if 83 is broken and held them to market those four 1175 area or a bit lower

Aug 5, 2011 11:46:49 AM EST
mike: ballots failed at 1283, that area is pivotal now. Look four 1275 or lower if we stay under that

Aug 5, 2011 11:54:50 AM EST
mike: the market is acting like it did yesterday, watch 1179 for good resistance now. All buyers over the last two weeks are in a deep hole and will be anxious to sell on any decent bounce, not much interest in buying this, knowing it won't go far before getting hit again and

Aug 5, 2011 11:56:55 AM EST
mike: there is one number at 1168, then I need to do some work to find out what's below, but that could be a magnet

Aug 5, 2011 12:02:45 AM EST
mike: 73 area resistance on this bounce

Aug 5, 2011 12:11:07 AM EST
mike: pushed through 73, right here at 79 is resistance

Aug 5, 2011 12:15:14 AM EST
mike: we have a noon/lunch time low and after a trend down morning. a pullback should hold over 76.75 for now

Aug 5, 2011 12:31:12 AM EST
mike: getting over 92.50 is key to getting out of trouble today. If 1179 is not held on this pullback, we could go back into a good downtrend and possibly test the lows if that is not defended as good support

Aug 5, 2011 12:39:10 AM EST
mike: a pullback should hold around 1190 now to keep this upside going

Aug 5, 2011 12:44:23 AM EST
mike: they held at 1290.25. We have a trend up off the low, a push over 1202 area needed to avoid a reversal in this area

Aug 5, 2011 12:48:47 AM EST
mike: 1190.25, not 1290.25... big move has me making typos. They should reverse around 1208, if we're going to have another pullback. Big moves in both directions, a backlog off from that area likely

Aug 5, 2011 12:53:02 AM EST
mike: 1204 needs to hold, and the 1212. It is resistance that should turn the market back

Aug 5, 2011 13:04:47 PM EST
mike: the move fizzled out, good resistance around 1208, a pullback base to stay over 1200.50 or this is turning again

Aug 5, 2011 13:07:38 PM EST
mike: 13.75 points in just five minutes, and the selling was pretty well contained... be patient enough to catch just one of these and it makes your day.

Aug 5, 2011 13:21:01 PM EST
mike: I need a short break, that action is enough to make one a bit dizzy. We should have a low in short-term, but a decent pullback to retest that love should occur when this move burns out. maybe not today then early next week. In any case, there is still what should be key resistance at 1212 and good support around 1194.50-1193.50. on a tip.

Aug 5, 2011 13:53:45 PM EST
mike: 1200-1198 area is support in this range, resistance at 1210 then what should be a key area at 1212, if 1212 is blown through, the Hyatt 1215.50 will be a target to potentially give a big reversal day

Aug 5, 2011 13:59:13 PM EST
mike: 1212.25 was rejected, if 1205 area is broken/held that a high for the afternoon could be in place., The 1200-1298 area would be in play if they hold under 1205.

Aug 5, 2011 14:12:22 PM EST
mike: top-down at 1212 area, now 1198 must hold and get the market turned around, otherwise more trouble towards 93

Aug 5, 2011 14:33:21 PM EST
mike: the market had a really good bounce off of the noon low and that fizzled out just before 2 PM and at a 1212 resistance. The pullback held the 1198 support, and that is key to stay over or we'll see a rush for the exit again today

Aug 5, 2011 14:56:10 PM EST
mike: they took out 1198, 1193 in the cards before a bounce attempt

Aug 5, 2011 15:03:25 PM EST
mike: this stays bearish as long as 1200 is not cleared/held and 1193 is a downside target

Aug 5, 2011 15:11:41 PM EST
mike: in the last hour, watch 1197 if they bounce, as that should be strong resistance at at 1197 +/- about one point

Aug 5, 2011 15:12:32 PM EST
mike: I am going to call her week. Quite a week it was! I'll see you there ready to go on Monday morning. Have a great weekend
 

Thursday August 04, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Aug 4, 2011 9:25:56 AM EST
mike: 48 area key resist 1, then 1254, 1258 still big resist. / 1238.00-1237.50 area supp, a hold under bad , pressure on

Aug 4, 2011 9:37:02 AM EST
mike: 42 resist

Aug 4, 2011 9:39:32 AM EST
mike: 41.50-42.00 needs cleared/ held

Aug 4, 2011 9:42:28 AM EST
mike: good bid at 37 area, must hold,

Aug 4, 2011 9:43:35 AM EST
mike: still needs over 42 or vulnerable

Aug 4, 2011 9:51:06 AM EST
mike: 30 next if 33 not held, , maybe 28 area. 39 area needs cleared / held now, then 41.50-42.00 key

Aug 4, 2011 9:54:03 AM EST
mike: 11700 on dow cash tested, still, need over 37 now just to try a turn up

Aug 4, 2011 9:58:25 AM EST
mike: 37.50 rejected, needs pushed thru soon

Aug 4, 2011 10:03:22 AM EST
mike: a hold over 35.50 keep upside going, 42 key to clear on bounce

Aug 4, 2011 10:05:28 AM EST
mike: 38 needs exceeded/ held or trend dn going . back in 15 min

Aug 4, 2011 10:30:57 AM EST
mike: 1233 needs held, if it is a bouncer to 37.50 would be the maximum before turning back

Aug 4, 2011 10:35:25 AM EST
mike: 1233 held in a run up to just under 1237 and it stalled. 1233 is now the key support

Aug 4, 2011 10:44:38 AM EST
mike: must see a reversal from 1228 area, otherwise the trouble today

Aug 4, 2011 10:48:22 AM EST
mike: don't expect a bounce to stick

Aug 4, 2011 10:49:38 AM EST
mike: this should be a two-sided day with a downside bias, a decent bounce will be sold into

Aug 4, 2011 11:00:13 AM EST
mike: it's really in bad shape now, a four point bounce on the ES should fail, 1225 and then down to around 1222 I think.

Aug 4, 2011 11:03:37 AM EST
mike: a bounce off of 23, that's now he support. 27 area should turn this back if going to continue to move lower

Aug 4, 2011 11:16:46 AM EST
mike: 1224-1223 zone is he to hold on a test.

Aug 4, 2011 11:29:13 AM EST
mike: Strong resistance just under 1230 now, it stays trend down under that

Aug 4, 2011 11:46:33 AM EST
mike: they ES has broken most all of the key support, the only area below is 1218, then down at the 12th 14-1212 band, it's still under pressure under 1222 now

Aug 4, 2011 11:51:36 AM EST
mike: the drop to 1212 was fast, bounce back towards 1217.50-1219.00.should be sold

Aug 4, 2011 12:08:13 AM EST
mike: 1221 area has some resistance, 1212 could be a good low, will see. a poll but needs to stay over 1218 or they will start rolling over again.

Aug 4, 2011 12:18:43 AM EST
mike: the pullback hell that 1218.25 and turned right back up. But 1223 area is looking key, 20. EMA on five-minute chart, high area before the drop to 1212. If it's pushed through, then 1221 turns into key support that must hold or we get a pullback

Aug 4, 2011 12:25:37 AM EST
mike: the market stays the vulnerable under 1223, the next bounce should fail under that level

Aug 4, 2011 12:29:12 AM EST
mike: it should roll over here at 1222 if it's going to head lower. There is a pretty good bid below and at least for now

Aug 4, 2011 12:34:00 AM EST
mike: if they can hang in here and stay over 1223, a move back to around 1228 as possible, 1230 is he resistance this afternoon

Aug 4, 2011 12:53:00 AM EST
mike: reached 1228, a pullback needs to stay over1226 to grind higher, otherwise it rolls over

Aug 4, 2011 13:10:13 PM EST
mike: about sky at 1228 and is now key to get over and hold how. we had a trend down move to 1212and then a trend of move to the 1228 resistance. As poor as the market has acted, the market is a short under that 1228 area.

Aug 4, 2011 13:31:38 PM EST
mike: the pullback from 1228 stopped at 1221.25, and is back to 1225., A short on bonds is still under 1228

Aug 4, 2011 13:36:24 PM EST
mike: sorry, I meant short on a bounce under 1228

Aug 4, 2011 13:55:17 PM EST
mike: stay with selling bounces. I need to be away for just a bit

Aug 4, 2011 14:21:02 PM EST
mike: stay with shorting bounces, they can't stick

Aug 4, 2011 14:32:43 PM EST
mike: 1208 has a small support area, if that is broken then we can go towards 1202, but likely under 1200.1212 area is now small resistance

Aug 4, 2011 14:34:25 PM EST
mike: 1216-1217 is a pivotal battles resistance area

Aug 4, 2011 14:50:03 PM EST
mike: 1220 is a key resistance going into three o'clock, if cleared 1223 should be seen and sold

Aug 4, 2011 15:11:22 PM EST
mike: we have a little bubble top at 1219.50, if that's pushed through, and this is like yesterday, we could see 1223 reached before another pullback. First though they need to get over 1219.50 and not fail here

Aug 4, 2011 15:16:05 PM EST
mike: should drop down through 1212

Aug 4, 2011 15:22:18 PM EST
mike: if there's no quick reversal on a test of the low here, we're going down to 1202 area

Aug 4, 2011 15:29:14 PM EST
mike: end of day, staying under 1212 should keep pressure on, it takes a break/hold over that too avoid a poor close

Aug 4, 2011 15:29:48 PM EST
mike: 1202 is the next downside

Aug 4, 2011 15:33:45 PM EST
mike: resistance at around 1209 area now, I still think it goes to 1202 now, possibly under 1200 on this leg down

Aug 4, 2011 15:42:15 PM EST
mike: that 1202 area might be on wait for another day. This is a last 30 minute short cover bounce, not much gusto to it., If they stay under 1210-1212 that we still could see 1202. Anyhow, have a good rest of the day

Wednesday August 03, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 03-09:38) mike: 53.50 needs traded over for a few minutes to change minor trend. a test of 1244 if hold under

(Aug 03-09:41) mike: ISM at 10am.

(Aug 03-09:50) mike: stayed under 53.50, 48.75 resist

(Aug 03-09:53) mike: 1250 pivotal it looks.

(Aug 03-10:05) mike: it looks like we are going to have a 2 sided day. 58 key if 54 not rejected.. / if break lower, 44 in cards

(Aug 03-10:09) mike: 48 needs broken/ held, 54 same on top. 1250.50 center-point/ pivotal level. back in 15-20 min

(Aug 03-10:34) mike: it's another ugly day going so far, just sell bounces, they won't stick. If 1238 is held on a break, then we can see 1233 area

(Aug 03-10:41) mike: after 38 was broken, 1233 was reached in just one minute. That's pretty vicious on the downside... a five point move on the upside lately will take an hour or more. 1228 is the next area, and likely broken through also

(Aug 03-10:51) mike: need a pushover 1339 area to try to get out of trouble for a bit. You move over 36 states to hold, not its sole loss here

(Aug 03-10:57) mike: 36.00-35.50 needs held only pull back now. 1240.50 area is last trapped from prior low, should pull back from there, or else we can go back to 1244

(Aug 03-11:02) mike: 1244 area should get a reaction, a dip should hold around 1240.50

(Aug 03-11:15) mike: we got the reaction off of the 44 area, a 44.75 high, and the pullback held that 39. That was a pullback low before getting to the 44.75 bounce high end needs to hold to avoid a test of the 1230 area, and maybe see the major 1328 before another decent bounce occurs

(Aug 03-11:20) mike: the 42.50 area should hold on a pullback now if the rally is going to continue. It really shouldn't go any further than that to keep this bounce alive

(Aug 03-11:33) mike: 42.50 area was held, , looks key now, this move will need some gusto or will have a reversal from under 1258 again

(Aug 03-11:49) mike: the next bounce made a double top , the 60 period EMA on the five minute chart--that was dynamic resistance all day yesterday, I think that needs cleared and held to change the trend, that area is at total 49 area.

(Aug 03-12:00) mike: 42.50-42.00 area is now key support., If that is broken then pressure should be back on the downside. this bounce failed so far

(Aug 03-12:15) mike: 1242 has turned into a transition area, it's a short under that, it must be cleared/held or we get another drop under 1238 or more

(Aug 03-12:27) mike: they dropped to 36.75 so far, if short you might want to cover in here, or at least tighten your stop.

(Aug 03-12:29) mike: I will be and out over the next 30 minutes. Stay with shorts on bounces unless the 42 area is taken out, and can hold. It's still weak if it can't do that

(Aug 03-12:42) mike: 42 was rejected, 39.75 needs to be held and pushed higher from there if reached to not roll back over again

(Aug 03-12:52) mike: this is bullish over 42

(Aug 03-13:26) mike: 42.50 needs to hold now, one more push up towards 1248 that stalls/reverses should set up a decent pullback

(Aug 03-13:36) mike: they held at 42.75 and reached at 1248 area, but no stall/reversal there yet. A move under 47 needs quickly reversed up to avoid the pullback

(Aug 03-13:44) mike: they held at 1247.75, then continued the upside. the 1254 is good resistance , or should be, if not then this goes parabolic up to the 1258 area. The 1250. Needs to hold to keep this strong uptrend intact

(Aug 03-13:53) mike: key here at the 50 area, a bounce back to test the highs should be sold now

(Aug 03-14:11) mike: we should get a pullback from either a test of 1255 that turns down, or by breaking the 1250.50 support

(Aug 03-14:24) mike: the bounce reverse from just one tick under 1255 and the pullback started. At 1255 area is now key resistance, the market in bearish mode unless that area is cleared and held. It will take a hold under 1250 put pressure back on the downside

(Aug 03-14:36) mike: a move down towards the 43 area should be good support if it's reached.

(Aug 03-14:52) mike: can keep going as long as 1248 isn't broken, it doesn't look like it has far to go right now

(Aug 03-15:19) mike: there has been a good bid on the pullbacks, so unless at 1249 area is broken and not a reverse late in the day, things should be okay to try to make higher prices. Just be careful around 1258 and that is reached

Tuesday  August 02, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 02-09:28) mike: should be a 2 sided day. 1366.00-1265.25 is key area, if it gets ugly then 1258 area major.

(Aug 02-09:42) mike: 78 resist, 75.50 supp

(Aug 02-09:48) mike: 75.50 held on dip, 79.75-80.50 small resist

(Aug 02-09:50) mike: 77.50 area key now

(Aug 02-09:54) mike: thats it for upside

(Aug 02-09:55) mike: if not a move to 82.50-83.00 will be a reversal area / 75.50 still a key supp

(Aug 02-10:05) mike: i will be away until 11:50am or thereabouts. 80.50 needs pushed theru or a pullback. 75.50 key supp now

(Aug 02-11:03) mike: i'll be back on in about 10 minutes. , a bounce to 72.50-73.00 area resist, a sell on a test, NQ lead dog on dnside

(Aug 02-11:39) mike: they need to push over 1270.50, just to break this down side trend, It's a short under that. If it Exceeded, Then 72.50 is resistance about

(Aug 02-11:43) mike: 1266.00-1265.25 area needs reversed if tested, if no hold then we could go down to test 1258 major area

(Aug 02-11:51) mike: a double bottom at 1273 support failed after a 3.50 point bounce. This double bottom at 1267.25 could get us back towards that 1272-1273 area if 1270.50 is exceeded and held.

(Aug 02-12:08) mike: still no over 1270.50. That's needed to get anything going, or started, on the upside at this moment

(Aug 02-12:18) mike: who vote on the budget under way, the range to break out of its 1270.50 on top, for the1266.00-1265.25 support area. A test of that, if reversed, could be worth a trade on the long side.

(Aug 02-12:23) mike: this needs to stay over of the 69.75 area now on a dip

(Aug 02-12:35) mike: there is just no stick on these bounces,, yet, so look for those pop-ups to stall for a short, and if they go down to the 1266 area in reverse back up then a quick trade on the long side possible. Sell the bounces until proven that there is some strength that will hold

(Aug 02-12:38) mike: 68.50 a small resistance to get out of a long if you took it off of 1266. Still not a good-looking market

(Aug 02-12:42) mike: if long, this was an exit. If they do go higher, still good resistance not far above, 71.50-73.00 area should be strong if reached

(Aug 02-12:47) mike: the bounce to 68.50 actually turned into a better short, and I suspect that these bounces will continue to do the same (run up, stall, reverse). Unless the 1271.50-1273.00 area is exceeded, the market is bearish

(Aug 02-12:51) mike: the 1266.00-1266.50 area now is resistance on a bounce

(Aug 02-12:59) mike: the 64 level now resistance that needs cleared/held to get a little bounce going

(Aug 02-13:04) mike: 66.00-66.50 is still resistance earlier, and looks kind of important to get over/hold.

(Aug 02-13:24) mike: they stalled at 66.25, but the pullback was just too 1263.75, that 1263.75-1263.25 area is key support,. so far below is just a few points above the 1258 major support area, if there is one more drop then that should be reversed, other wise the market is in bigger trouble still on the short-term. Watch 1266 now, it needs to hold or be quickly reversed if broken

(Aug 02-13:39) mike: we just tested the low, however it has been a basic trend down day. sell pop ups

(Aug 02-13:53) mike: if this continues, then the low could be made with about 30 minutes to go in stock trading, it will take a move that over 1264, and probably more importantly the 1266., To get out of this... 1258 should be in the cards

(Aug 02-14:02) mike: 1258 reached, and right around 2 PM. If the market wasn't looking so ugly, it would set up a good trade on the long side, but no go. Good resistance now around the 1261.00-1262.00 area on a bounce, it needs clear/then held

(Aug 02-14:14) mike: , to change the symmetry, a move over 1264.50 would be needed. I hate to pick bottoms, I'll hold the pun, but it looks like that 1258 low might be in for a while,. if 1264.50 is exceeded

(Aug 02-14:24) mike: 1264.50 was rejected, it looks like 1261.50 is as far as this pullback should go

(Aug 02-14:26) mike: 1264.50 was rejected, small support at 1261.50, but the ES needs to get over 1264.50, and hold, otherwise it is still in bad shape

(Aug 02-14:49) mike: an attempt to double bottom at a key support area... it looks like now the 1262.50. Needs exceeded to take some pressure off. The way this his acting, don't expect a bounce to hold, and if all 58 is broken then we should go next pound two 1252, and that should be very important support on a better picture basis.

(Aug 02-15:04) mike: we should have a good double bottom in place but only if 1265.00 is taken out on this rally. Otherwise the market is still vulnerable and can pullback towards 1262 , and hold there if it is trying to make a bottom. if 1262 not held, we may see 1258 one more time

(Aug 02-15:11) mike: pullback held at 1262.75. The 1262.75-1262.25 area as looking like a key support end of day, if they don't break out over 1264.50, and then break that support, there's still a chance to go back to the 1258 area one more time. Will

(Aug 02-15:14) mike: this could go for a low right around 3:30 PM, unless the low is already in. That would be the time frame for a low for the day. It still can be unless 1264.50 is cleared/held.

(Aug 02-15:24) mike: if they don't bounce from a lower low meet around 3:30 PM, then we could go for 1252 area. But what expect some short covering if reached before the close. Have a good rest of the day! See you here tomorrow morning

(Aug 02-15:29) mike: one last comment, we got our low, the resistance is at the 1260.50 area now, I still wouldn't buy this just yet. Have a good rest of the day.

Monday  August 01, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Aug 01-09:24) mike: the 1302.25-1303.00 has to cleared and held early, not rejected. if it does clear/hold the next resist area at 1307.75-1308.75 . 1298-1287 now a resist turned supp early, needs reversed on a test. ISM Index and Construction Spending at 10am. instant message a bit after 10am. in and out this morning

(Aug 01-09:35) mike: big failure on open, bounces sold . 1298-87 a key supp, then
(Aug 01-09:36) mike: 98-97 reversed, 1302 pivotal resist now
(Aug 01-09:45) mike: 1300.50 pivotal. 92.50 area next supp

(Aug 01-09:48) mike: 98 area pivotal now. 92.50 magnet it looks, ISM top of hour. back near 10:10 or so

(Aug 01-10:02) mike: 92.50 area now pivotal, a sell on the bounces could be trend day , with retracements

(Aug 01-10:28) mike: the test of Friday's low held by one tick, otherwise we would have an outside day already. That area is really important now it looks a break of that would need reversed from just a bit below, like around 1275.50,otherwise we have some trouble in 1272 could be in the cards

(Aug 01-10:32) mike: 85.50-86.50 is he resistance that needs to be cleared to break this trend,/ grind lower....

(Aug 01-10:53) mike: 1282 may still hold dear. If there is a pop up to around 1286.50, that should be sold. If 1282 breaks, and a test of the low, likely a slightly lower level, could still be in the cards before a decent bounce it's going

(Aug 01-10:57) mike: right now it's a short under 1283
(Aug 01-10:58) mike: 80 key or to 78

(Aug 01-11:15) mike: 1279.50-1280.75 area is resistance on this bounce. A triple bottom is not common, a lower low still possible if that resistance not cleared/held

(Aug 01-11:29) mike: small pullback from 79.25 was sold down to just 77.50 before turning back up..the 1278 area needs to hold on a pullback now, otherwise the trend down day still in gear

(Aug 01-11:32) mike: 1278was held so far, but I may be wrong on that, they might bounce but the 1280.75 resistance turn this back, that's the key resistance now that he's cleared/held on a pullback in order to get out of trend down action

(Aug 01-11:43) mike: it has been a Gap day/trend day, and if this stays under 1281 or thereabouts, this selling could last until the closing bell. In any case, don't expect the bounces to stick, the 1281 area is key now. 1276.50 prior low area was sold after it was broken, and it's now a minor resistance

(Aug 01-12:04) mike: we're going to get the lunchtime bounce attempt it looks, the 1276.50 is still key to get above and then hold. A drop to a lower low will likely bened back up and make a bounce of a few points..... I'll be in and out for the next 30 minutes or so, may not be able to update for a little bit

(Aug 01-12:34) mike: 1374.50 is a pivotal resistance, a failure again sends us down towards the low. A break above that, that holds, it is a start of a bounce towards 1276.50, but resistance now around 1280-1281 area

(Aug 01-12:41) mike: not much gusto behind this, but should be in bounce mode now, a move up to 76.50 would be first, if that's not rejected then we could move back towards 1280-1281 area, potentially. That should be pretty strong resistance if they get there
(Aug 01-12:42) mike: skip that,

(Aug 01-12:44) mike: 74.75 bounce high, was sold, they got do better than that if if this is going to get going on the upside

(Aug 01-12:53) mike: 76.50 should be reached, if they pull back from their then wide 74.254 support

(Aug 01-13:07) mike: 76.50 was missed, and instead a small double top at 1276 was put in. this is still a basic trend down day, they need to get over that 76.50and better yet the 1280 level in order to get out of trouble for a law

(Aug 01-13:24) mike: back to 1276, and backing off a bit.. the 1273 level acted as good support, just as well at 1276 area has acted as resistance. A pullback needs to hold around 1274 to keep the market in position to get turned around. down here

(Aug 01-13:33) mike: 1274.50 held, so that might be the low for that pullback.,, it at least has to hold now or be quickly reversed if broken

(Aug 01-13:46) mike: a pullback held at 1275.00 in this slow and choppy grind higher off the low. But the 1276.50 was sold, that needs punched through, and then hold over 1275.50 area on a pullback to keep this level of trend intact

(Aug 01-14:00) mike: new spending on the budget, watch the 1275.50 area, it needs to hold on a dip to keep this little grind higher off the low from breaking

(Aug 01-14:05) mike: I meant "news pending", not "new spending".... the bounce high is in, 1277 and 2336 on NASDAQ

(Aug 01-14:15) mike: pullback place to stay over 72.50, otherwise it can test the low. A bounce off of that 73.00-72.50 area should be a decent one if the market is going to try to dig out of this hole. 1275 area now resistance, needs cleared and held to take some pressure off

(Aug 01-14:25) mike: 1275 was reached and sold, a bounce now needs to take that out and then hold at least over 1274 to keep from dropping back test or break the low

(Aug 01-14:38) mike: 73.00-72.50 area should hold on a pullback, -- but it takes a move over 1266-1277 that sticks to start to get a bottom in place.1274.50 should be broken the market is turning back up

(Aug 01-14:44) mike: 1277 was sold,a pullback to 1275 area needs to hold in any case to go higher, or just avoid trouble

(Aug 01-14:48) mike: they should try for the 1280 area, 1276.50-1276 100 area is support now.

(Aug 01-14:54) mike: pullback to 76.50 held in now still should try for the 1280-1281 zone, that should be good resistance

(Aug 01-15:05) mike: reached the 80-81 zone pretty easily, as long as 1279.50 can't hold, the market will avoid trouble the rest of the day. That looks pivotal, if no bounce there, then the 1276. Will be the key support at the end of the day

(Aug 01-15:15) mike: a big gap down open, going trend it down until around noon, when the lunchtime turnaround occurred. That was a grind higher to 1277, then the downtrend resumed to 1272.25. The market got its legs there, got over 1276.50-1277.00 and held 1276.50 on a dip and we got a bounce back today resistance area at 1282. That was rejected, 1279.50 tested, and 1276.50 would be in the cards of 1279 breaks can we get an end of day pulled that/drop. The market will be better shape if it can stay over that 1276.50 area. Must hold here, or will test that.

(Aug 01-15:25) mike: think long over 1279.50. As long as that holds, nothing bad happens the rest of the day. 1284 area would be next resistance

(Aug 01-15:27) mike: 1283.50 so far, that should be sold into the market is going to stay in what should be a new trading range under 1287-1288

(Aug 01-15:27) mike: have a good rest of the day

Friday  July 29, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 29-09:21) mike: another ugly day to start.... the 1286.50-1285.50 area looking pivotal early, if cleared then 1291.50-1292.50 resist, looks key, needs cleared / held. the 1278.50-1277.50 zone is the area that needs reversed, 1284 area on SPX , SP500 Cash.

(Jul 29-09:38) mike: 85.50-86,50 will need cleared/ held on dip

(Jul 29-09:42) mike: 12100 dow cash, 1280.50 ES, looks like big supp, but not outta trouble unless 1285.00-1286.50 cleared.

(Jul 29-09:45) mike: careful here, econ data this morn too.

(Jul 29-09:48) mike: 1278.50-1277.50 and 200d ma touched. not outta trouble unless 1285.50-1286.50 exceeded

(Jul 29-09:51) mike: 82 pivotal

(Jul 29-10:00) mike: a low right on key supp, now resist 88.50 then 92.00-92.50 then max 1295 area resist... 84.75-84,.00 as far as a dip should go if uptrend to stay intact

(Jul 29-10:04) mike: 84 key now, pivotal .

(Jul 29-10:15) mike: bearish patterns, even tho a rally off major supp with gusto. 1284 needs held or it breaks down. if 1 more pop that stalls/rejected around 1291.50-1292.50 a sell

(Jul 29-10:16) mike: back in 15 minutes or so

(Jul 29-10:41) mike: the ES needs to say over 1386.50 to avoid a reversal. The stall at 1290 could be a heads up for another drop

(Jul 29-10:45) mike: a bounce will be sold now, watch 1288.50 area -that will need clear and then push through 1290.50 area to avoid a pullback, from up here

(Jul 29-10:50) mike: they pullback to 1285.75, support before the drop down to 1278 major area. The pullbacks should be bought, and 1295 should be in the cards.

(Jul 29-10:59) mike: 1293.75-1293.00 needs to hold here

(Jul 29-11:02) mike: the 60. EMA on the five-minute chart is at 1297 and that's in yesterday's closing range. To keep this going, need to push right through that and hold it on a dip. I doubt that happens, this needs a breather first. if 93.75 breaks here in a high should be in for a bit

(Jul 29-11:05) mike: small support at 92.50-92.00. A 123 type top is possible on a test of the high

(Jul 29-11:08) mike: if no turn from 1298, then 1302 area could be in the cards

(Jul 29-11:15) mike: 1302 area is still possible but the ES piece to stay over 1296 now you have a chance to move higher

(Jul 29-11:19) mike: the micro support held, this can get to 1302 area but the way the market has been acting, I would expect some pullback over for lunch time trading, and then see if this upside and continue.

(Jul 29-11:22) mike: they need to stay over 1298 now, or this move begins to lose its luster, and a pullback is coming

(Jul 29-11:26) mike: 98.75 held, but the upside is out of steam, 1297. His key to stay over on this pullback

(Jul 29-11:39) mike: 1295 was kind of key earlier, a rate under that to get the ES down to 1292.50-1291.75 area, and that's as far as a pullback can go without doing some damage to this uptrend. If they bounce you here to test 1300, we're just a bit lower, it would set up a selling opportunity

(Jul 29-12:04) mike: the market has run out of steam, and as long as it stays under 1297 area is back in trouble, and could see 1289.50 area, if that 1291.75 level is not held

(Jul 29-12:14) mike: looking for a drop down to 1290.50-1289.50 as a key area to hold. That was early high, and when broken the move up to 1300 followed. If that doesn't hold them the 1285would be next

(Jul 29-12:18) mike: they reached 1291.75 area and bounced a bit. The 1290 is still key to hold. on the top side, a move over 1295 is needed to take some pressure off. If cleared, then 1297 is the key level above. I need to be away for about 20 minutes or so. I'll update then.

(Jul 29-12:43) mike: 1290.50 was reached and held, that was the high area about an hour into the day, shorts got squeezed when that was exceeded. That looks like a "line in the sand" for support on a pullback. The market made a nice come back, and it is doing its normal , of late, lunchtime rehearsal. That makes that area even more important now. As long as it's held, and then 1294 is pushed through and held, the market can make a move back up to 1297-1298 or so on this move before another turned down. getting over 1294 and holding is a must

(Jul 29-12:53) mike: 1294 was not cleared/held, but instead it was reversed/rejected. They drop back down to test the 1290.50 area, and a break will open the door to go to the 1288 level, and maybe lower before some kind of turn occurs. Again, only of 1290.50 is broken, as we are in a range at the moment

(Jul 29-13:14) mike: another pop up here towards 1292.50-1293 .00 that fails should be a sell

(Jul 29-13:26) mike: 93 reached, a pullback to 91.50 now it's needed to hold

(Jul 29-13:30) mike: if you took a short position at the 92.50-93.00 area, it's just a scalp, 91.50-91.25 area is the exit area, at least for part, with a stop at breakeven or 1293

(Jul 29-13:39) mike: they went down to 1291 before reversing back up. Look to buy the next pullback as long as the 1292 area is held now the market should be okay for a test 1294-1295 easily

(Jul 29-13:51) mike: this has to hold up over the 1294.00-1293.50 area now. A reversal or round 1296 or just above here is possible still, as this can still be a two-way trade with another downdraft in the cards

(Jul 29-14:03) mike: the 1293.50 is now going to be key this afternoon, a transition area is broken.

(Jul 29-14:10) mike: 1297.00 could be a bounce high, if 1296.50 is broken, then it probably will be. If it's not then we should push up to test 1300 again, the 1302 area is still key resistance

(Jul 29-14:20) mike: they should've been able to bounce right off of 1293.50, and it didn't happen, the market is back to bearish mode here. The next bounce should be sold, old 97 area should be a strong resistance area the rest of the afternoon

(Jul 29-14:52) mike: 97 area is key and the bounce up to 96.25 was sold, right back down to the 93.50 area. A break of that, and then 1292, could open the door for a move back towards the 1288 level. If 1292 holds, then one more push back towards 1297 as possible

(Jul 29-15:14) mike: it's been a long week, with a bunch of volatility of intraday and on some of the open's. The ES has been in a channel, it breaks on the downside if 1292 is broken and not quickly reversed, it takes out the upside only if they get over that 1297 resistance. I wouldn't expect this to go out with a good rally end of day, it would be a surprise

(Jul 29-15:14) mike: anyhow, hope you had a good week. Have a nice weekend, I'll see you here ready to roll on Monday morning

Thursday  July 28, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Jul 28, 2011 9:23:07 AM EST
mike: the 98-97 area bought pre open, the rally to 1305.00-1305.50 initial resist rejected, those both key early. i'll be in and out of office first 45 min, more updates near 10:20am or so

Jul 28, 2011 9:59:30 AM EST
mike: home sales data

Jul 28, 2011 10:01:06 AM EST
mike: 1305 needs cleared / held. 1301.50 key s

Jul 28, 2011 10:01:18 AM EST
mike: back in 20 min

Jul 28, 2011 10:30:56 AM EST
mike: it looks like 1304 needs to hold, or they will reverse. That should be pivotal now

Jul 28, 2011 10:48:28 AM EST
mike: the ES went just under 1304 and turned back up. A double top possible here, 1305.50 start a turn down

Jul 28, 2011 10:55:55 AM EST
mike: surprise that they didn't roll over, the stronger NQ lead the way up since taking out yesterday's low in the early going and turning back up the move is losing steam right under the high, but now. It needs to stay over 2378, 2374 at the worst. The ES needs to hold a 1305.00-1304.00 area.

Jul 28, 2011 10:57:50 AM EST
mike: look to sell a bounce here under 1307.50, stop just above that, it's a double top so far

Jul 28, 2011 11:00:41 AM EST
mike: hold off on this, ES is still okay as long as 1305.50 is held, if that breaks many bounce after should be sold

Jul 28, 2011 11:10:57 AM EST
mike: we have a good oversold bounce going, the good resistance is just above that the 1311-1312 area. The next pullback needs to hold that 1307.50 area to keep this trend of move in gear

Jul 28, 2011 11:16:36 AM EST
mike: and held at 1308.00, so still have a zone at 1308.00-1307.50 area for a key support on a pullback. Watch for a pullback from around 1310.50-1311.00, probably at the most, if this is going to have a decent pullback today

Jul 28, 2011 11:26:10 AM EST
mike: Key resistance reached, a pullback here needs to hold 1309.50. If the 1311.50 resistance is pushed through, then we could possibly get to 1315 area

Jul 28, 2011 11:36:17 AM EST
mike: scalp shorts against the high, down to 1310 area or lower

Jul 28, 2011 11:38:28 AM EST
mike: we have 60. EMA on the five-minute chart at 12.50, the move has stalled out a little bit, if they get over 1312.50 then we could still see 1315 area but doubt that would hold. Need a break under 1311 here soon

Jul 28, 2011 11:42:37 AM EST
mike: that didn't work.

Jul 28, 2011 11:43:23 AM EST
mike: we could have a double top here, but the slow grinding type moves are not easy to reverse

Jul 28, 2011 11:43:56 AM EST
mike: still need a break under 1311 to stick to change this trend

Jul 28, 2011 11:48:54 AM EST
mike: well, it looks like they did double top. Sell against 1312.50.if 1311 t area breaks. Pullbacks have been just 1.50 points on the way out, so 1311 needs broken. also, my error on that being the 60 EMA on the five-minute chart, I was looking at a different chart

Jul 28, 2011 12:04:30 AM EST
mike: 1313 is a good resistance, only if broken and not quickly reverse in the ES go to 1315. It will probably get more choppy here over a lunch time action and on the downside the 1310.50 is the key support that needs to be reversed on a test.

Jul 28, 2011 12:11:51 AM EST
mike: 123 top, 1250 was soundly rejected

Jul 28, 2011 12:12:18 AM EST
mike: houses are now shorting opportunities under 1312.50

Jul 28, 2011 12:20:41 AM EST
mike: watch 1308-1307.50, need a reversal there where the market is back in trouble and the trend down could continue to 1304-1303 area at least

Jul 28, 2011 12:21:39 AM EST
mike: even a decent bounce now will see a shorting opportunity, longs strapped above 1311

Jul 28, 2011 12:30:10 AM EST
mike: market is pretty weak if it can't get to 1311, even if it does I think that area will be sold. Basically the band between 1310.50 to 1311.50 is that good resistance. 1312.50 was sold fast

Jul 28, 2011 12:38:17 AM EST
mike: the 1309.50-1310 area is a short, with a tight stop. They won't go over 1311 50 pressure is going to be put on

Jul 28, 2011 12:43:09 AM EST
mike: 1307.50 was an early high, and turned into a pivotal area on the way up. Once it was broken/held it open that door for the run up to the high. It has to hold here, or I think the 1304 area is in the cards next

Jul 28, 2011 12:57:22 AM EST
mike: good buying around 1307. A pullback to 1308.50-1308.00 (at lowest) should hold if we're going to push higher. A move to 1311 area should then be sold into,but the 1308 level needs to hold

Jul 28, 2011 13:03:53 PM EST
mike: 1308 held so far, its key now

Jul 28, 2011 13:05:40 PM EST
mike: I'm not crazy about being along here, would rather sell a bounce, highs should be in for the afternoon, at least it looks like that right now

Jul 28, 2011 13:19:23 PM EST
mike: the top of this afternoon channel is 1310, that should be used as resistance to sell against and 1307 is now key support, needs to hold to avoid going to 1304 area

Jul 28, 2011 13:23:22 PM EST
mike: 1308.50 is now resistance, they shouldn't bounce further than that intended to 1304 area

Jul 28, 2011 13:33:12 PM EST
mike: the ES reached 1308.50 while the NQ barely budged. this is a down sloping channel and the ES needs to get back over 1309.50-1310.00 for this to get a breakout to the upside. A break and hold under the 1307 level will put pressure on, otherwise they stay inside this channel, or break to the downside towards the 1304 area

Jul 28, 2011 13:44:58 PM EST
mike: they worked their way back up to the 1310 area and turn right down. They drop to the 1307 now live need to turn right back up

Jul 28, 2011 13:51:20 PM EST
mike: a feeble bounce off of 1307.50...look for a short on a bounce to test the 1309.50-1310.25 area now as it looks like this will continue

Jul 28, 2011 13:52:40 PM EST
mike: hold off on that, more crap from Washington coming out

Jul 28, 2011 13:55:48 PM EST
mike: well drat. If they get back up there to 1309.50-1310.00 area, expect more selling

Jul 28, 2011 13:58:01 PM EST
mike: 2393-2395 area on the NQ is resistance there. To get a breakout on the upside, which looks doubtful today, need to see the NQ breakout along with ES

Jul 28, 2011 14:04:16 PM EST
mike: the sideways action has been winding the market tight since 12:20 PM, the NASDAQ could leave it lower here

Jul 28, 2011 14:07:09 PM EST
mike: just be selling the market on a bounce if not short, a move back up to 1308 should be sold

Jul 28, 2011 14:09:03 PM EST
mike: 1306.50 was a low of this range, have broken and not reversed right away then we will be headed towards 1304 or lower

Jul 28, 2011 14:12:19 PM EST
mike: 1304 reached, a bounce back to 1307 area should be sold now. If this keeps pushing through 1304, then it's down to 1298 area once again or maybe a bit lower

Jul 28, 2011 14:25:07 PM EST
mike: a bearish pattern under 1306.50, 1304 should be tested or broken

Jul 28, 2011 14:27:57 PM EST
mike: we could go back down to 1298, so don't be eager to buy this. Need to get over 1306.50-1307.50 area now just to change the trend

Jul 28, 2011 14:52:35 PM EST
mike: the ES needs to get back over 1307 to attempt to get out of trouble. I think the 1304 level needs to hold now on a pullback if we are going to get a bounce back that can take out that area, or at least test

Jul 28, 2011 15:00:16 PM EST
mike: a bounce off of 1304.00, but without any gusto. Don't trust this

Jul 28, 2011 15:11:03 PM EST
mike: I'm not sure what to expect in the last hour, the 1302 is a decent support, but no gusto on the bounce. 1298 with the next. Stay with the sell side unless 1306.50-1307 has cleared

Jul 28, 2011 15:15:18 PM EST
mike: pressure on under 1304 the way it looks, don't know why this market should be bid up the way it has acted after making the high.. If 1304 is cleared, there is resistance just above, so I doubt there is a big run up into the close, but a nosedive not impossible

Jul 28, 2011 15:20:48 PM EST
mike: they need to get back over 1303 to take some pressure off. Otherwise we could still see 1298

Jul 28, 2011 15:32:04 PM EST
mike: a 1298 was tested with 30 minutes left, they may as well go down to 1295 to reach the overnight low if no turn here, trend resistance at 1300.50-1301.50 some

Jul 28, 2011 15:35:40 PM EST
mike: 1295 area and then 1293.00-1292.00 area next. 1300 is resistance. Have a good rest of the day

Wednesday July 27, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 27-09:55) mike: i will be away until around noon or bit after, 1313-1312 key this morn, 23 on top

(Jul 27-12:35) mike: the market is still a sell on bounces under 1313, that needs clearing and held on a dip to take pressure off

(Jul 27-12:40) mike: 1310 was just reversed for the third time since noon, a push under that that doesn't reverse right away again should put more pressure on, 1308 would be next

(Jul 27-12:48) mike: 1312.50-1313.00 area is resistance, a pullback to 1311.25 needs to hold to get something going on the upside. I didn't see the early action in person, I just see the charts, it looks like a bounces going to have a hard time holding today.

(Jul 27-13:01) mike: shouldn't reverse so easy this time, need to get over 1311 and all

(Jul 27-13:05) mike: pressure is still on unless 1311 is cleared

(Jul 27-13:11) mike: expect the next pullback to be bought. A trade on the long side sets up if they go under 1309.50 and turn back up. It would be a scalp, as the 1312.50-1313.00 area is still key resistance to get over and hold

(Jul 27-13:16) mike: no reversal, let's not take that even if they do reverse, I want to see some strength before buying

(Jul 27-13:19) mike: buffet get back to 1311.50-1312.50, that will be the key area for another turn down today if they get there again. In order to get out of trouble, and show some strength, that 1311.50-1312.50 area will need cleared, and then see 1311.50 or so turn into support on a pullback. Otherwise this looks like it will stay in trend down mode a bit longer

(Jul 27-13:38) mike: ES needs to push over 1310, and then more especially 1311.25 and hold above that. Otherwise it stays in trouble. The NQ is leading the way now.

(Jul 27-13:42) mike: we should have a low in place now, 1309.50 is a support to hold our pullback

(Jul 27-13:52) mike: 1310.00-1309.50 area needs held here, and get a push over the 1312.50 area in order to get the market out of trouble. Should reverse from that area unless something is really wrong with the market

(Jul 27-14:02) mike: they are trying to hold the support, but cannot get anything going to get over the next area at 1312.50 which is key. We may undergo another washout later today or early tomorrow before this selloff finds a decent low, down around 1303-1302 is possible. So, let's stay away from Long's unless they get down to that area, or can prove themselves strong by breaking/holding resistance

(Jul 27-14:26) mike: 1311.00-1311.50 area is now resistance to get through, and hold, late day. Still don't think this is over with, if they break 1308.00-1307.50 area they will need to reverse fast, or a test of the 1303 area still likely be for a turnaround can occur, possibly lower

(Jul 27-14:35) mike: 1308.75-1309.50 so it is now resistance, bounce. If they pushed down to 1303.00-1302.00 and reverse up, then a scalp on the long side

(Jul 27-14:36) mike: 1303 met, I'm not going to be a hero and try to buy this thing. He bounce back to 1306 area should be good resistance

(Jul 27-14:53) mike: 1306 needs cleared to get some shorts covering or bring in some buying. Could rollover again, if that's not cleared and held

(Jul 27-15:14) mike: it has been a gap day/trend day. The high was made in the first five minutes of stock trading, the low could be made at the 4 PM close for stocks. Keep an eye on the NASDAQ, it has been leading. They reached the 1303-1302.50 area that was the target, the next area is 1298-1297 if this continues today or into tomorrow morning. A move over 1306 now needed to break the down side symmetry

(Jul 27-15:26) mike: they dipped just under 1300 and reversed up. If they aren't going to drop into 4 PM, that should be a low area, not much more if broken, 1298-1297 area should be good support

(Jul 27-15:39) mike: watch the 1302 area for support here late day, it needs to hold to avoid a test of the low. 1309 area is a cluster of resistance is above here end of day. Hope you had a good trading day, I'll see you here in the morning

(Jul 27-15:50) mike: looks like a 4 PM low after all. Take care

Tuesday July 26, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Jul 26, 2011 9:22 mike: no change early from last nights update. the 1327 supp overnight low, 1337.50 rejected too. the high 1339.75, doesn't like 1340 yet. econ data 10am

Jul 26, 2011 9:35 mike: 34.50 r

Jul 26, 2011 9:36 mike: 1328.00-1327.50 supp

Jul 26, 2011 9:37 mike: but 34.00-4.50 the key to get over / hold after 10am

Jul 26, 2011 9:46 mike: 1328.00-1327.50 break leads to 1323 area or so, 33.00-33.50 now resist

Jul 26, 2011 9:51 mike: 31 resist, then 33.00, then 34.50... its sell bounce morn

Jul 26, 2011 9:58 mike: 29 area small resist... 26.00 and 12500 on dow cash is supp that must hold now.

Jul 26, 2011 10:03 mike: 1330.50-1331.00 needs cleared, held on dip now , test of low must hold

Jul 26, 2011 10:07 mike: bounce failed just under 30. its key now. a drop to 23.00-22.50 area still possible before a decent bounce try

Jul 26, 2011 10:16 mike: the 12500 on dow cash trying to be defended, but still need a push over 1330.50-1331.00 area on this bounce and hold that. if not, another test of low occurs

Jul 26, 2011 10:45 mike: the ES made it to the 1330.50-1331.00 zone, a pullback from here needs to stay over 1328.50-1328.00 it appears in order to avoid another drop down.

Jul 26, 2011 10:47 mike: 1333 area is next resistance, but need to stay over 1329.50 now

Jul 26, 2011 10:55 mike: so far the 1331 level only exceeded by one tick. Market is vulnerable still, especially on a break of 1329.50

Jul 26, 2011 11:04 mike: the dip turned up from 1329.00, which is a small "last trapped" from 10:17 AM until 10:38 AM. That should hold now if the market is going to try for a hold over the 1331 level , which is needed to avoid more trouble this morning

Jul 26, 2011 11:08 mike: the 1331 area should now act as support on a pullback to the upside is going to continue. 1333 is the next resistance above

Jul 26, 2011 11:19 mike: the move is losing gas at 1333 resistance, now the 1331.50-1331.00 area is key to stay over to avoid a change in trend back to the downside

Jul 26, 2011 11:26 mike: 31.50 was bought, that needs to hold still to have a chance to push over 1333 and keep the uptrend intact. If that breaks, then we are in for another pullback, likely back towards 1330.50 or so

Jul 26, 2011 11:39 mike: 1330.50 reached, but the market still vulnerable unless 1333 is clear

Jul 26, 2011 11:57 mike: a bounce to 31 area that stalls should be sold. Tempting to buy a pullback, but feel that this is a bounce that is not going to stick, and instead the downside could get some momentum for 29 area breaks

Jul 26, 2011 12:11 mike: the bounce was sold right at 1331.00. That's key to get over, and hold that on a dip. Market has another leg down unless that happens pretty soon

Jul 26, 2011 12:17 mike: 31 was cut through pretty easily, that is support now on a dip. The 1333 area is still a key area of resistance on the upside

Jul 26, 2011 12:28 mike: shorting a stall here

Jul 26, 2011 12:29 mike: 31.50 the key below, if not defended then we can go to 1329 area if market gets some momentum

Jul 26, 2011 12:46 mike: the first pullback from just under 1333 gave a pullback to 1329.75. The bounce back to that 1332.75 level/test stall out at a small pullback to 1331.25 occurred a few minutes ago. This is the third time up here, should be key still. They need to get over this 1333 and hold, not reverse back down, to attempt 1337 or thereabouts, 1335.50 first, but 1332.75 is still key resistance to sell against in my book

Jul 26, 2011 13:06 mike: 1332 was rejected, and the NQ also looks like a double top. More reason to sell strength against the 1332.50-1333 zone

Jul 26, 2011 13:17 mike: that kind of slow down after the quick reversals on bounces. A move back down to 1325.50 is still possible

Jul 26, 2011 13:18 mike: as long as 1333 is not exceeded today, this is set up to go back and test this morning lows, if not this afternoon then tomorrow

Jul 26, 2011 13:38 mike: staying under 1331 should keep pressure on. If that exceeded then we could see one more try at 1332.75 level, doubts that will occur but if so it will be a key area end of day

(Jul 26-13:47) mike: a push under 1329 should give this a move towards 1326.25-1325.50zone, that area should be bought or something is wrong with this market as things are changing

(Jul 26-13:50) mike: they bounced right off of 1329 instead here, if they test that can hold, it could be a quick trade on the long side

(Jul 26-14:01) mike: this market is a real snoozer today. There were a couple setups off of the 1332.750 level (using 1333 resistance) but just say 3.75 point range off the high. We shouldn't have a low made at 1329 for a bit, but if that is broken then there's still one more move down towards 1326.00-1325.50. On this bounce in 1330 can hold, a chance to get back to test the highs as possible. If you don't see a good set up, then pass, tomorrow should be better. Just a possibility of a late day move the way this is acting

(Jul 26-14:06) mike: one of the best bounces since the morning. right up to 1332.50, just under the high, now a pullback needs to hold 1331 and turn right back up to keep this going and avoid another reversal

(Jul 26-14:13) mike: we can make a higher high
(Jul 26-14:13) mike: just did, the ES needs to stay over 1332 now

(Jul 26-14:14) mike: there is a chance they can go for 1337 but should fail if they reach that area --

(Jul 26-14:15) mike: 34.50 was resistance pretty open, could pull back from there

(Jul 26-14:26) mike: this pullback needs to stay above 1333.00-1332.50, or it will be a fake out top, and a bounce that follows set would set up a short

(Jul 26-14:30) mike: 33.25 pullbacks low so far. We'll see what happens here late, I'll really be surprised if they hold this together up here and close over the 1332.50 area, but if they did it will be short-term bullish. 1332.50 is not held, or quickly reverse back up and broken, then 30.50 area or lower will be back in the cards

(Jul 26-14:36) mike: 33.00 held, a 123 top possible here, 33 area is most told now, pivotal area

(Jul 26-14:39) mike: 123 top, sell against 1335, 1333.75 was the traitor

(Jul 26-14:45) mike: 32.000-31.50 is support on this pullback, a cluster of numbers there, needs held or market gets hit harder with selling end of the day, if it's reversed then a bounce back possible end of day

(Jul 26-14:48) mike: sure looks like a high in place, sure was enough eager sellers up there, and a 123 top is a sign of rejection. Even if this support holds and they bounce back to test the highs, that should be sold.

(Jul 26-14:50) mike: I need to leave early today. Good luck in the last hour. Have a great rest of the day, I'll see you here in the morning
 

Friday July 22, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Jul 22, 2011 9:21 mike: the 1348.00-1348.50 2nd resist zone was tested overnight, and rejected, its strong resist and shouldnt be cleared/ held, VIX on 2 sell sigs, and a drop by it that reversed up is bearish.. the 1339 gave a bounce. 39 needs held per last night's update. don't expect a rally to stick.

Jul 22, 2011 9:34 mike: 39.00-38.50 bounce, will fail. watch NQ for reversal to turn it down.

Jul 22, 2011 9:44 mike: going lower,

Jul 22, 2011 9:45 mike: 42 needs cleared/ held to try a breakout

Jul 22, 2011 9:51 mike: keep puts or proxies bought yesterday with ES at 1342. should see 1332-1331 area . only a break/ hold over 1342 gets pressure off

Jul 22, 2011 9:53 mike: NQ topped, a divergence with ES, pressure from that

Jul 22, 2011 10:00 mike: 35.00 a small supp, if cut thru we see 1332.50-1331.50 the key area. 38.50-39.00 r now

Jul 22, 2011 10:05 mike: a 6.75 point pullback off 1341.75 early high. 38.50-39.00 resist now

Jul 22, 2011 10:08 mike: 38.25 was sold on bounce, 36.50 small supp now, needs held

Jul 22, 2011 10:15 mike: 38.50-39.00 still key above -- 1342-1343 area a big resist. if 1335 is broken, then 1332.50-1331.50 gets tested.

Jul 22, 2011 10:19 mike: stay with shorts to 32-31 at least. , bounces will fail

Jul 22, 2011 10:28 mike: 1332.50-1331.50 tested, 35.50-36.50 resist it looks now.

Jul 22, 2011 10:30 mike: need to be away 20 minutes. so be right back

Jul 22, 2011 10:57 mike: the ES bounced back up to the 1338 resistance and turn back down. They will need to hold this 1335.50 area, and then push up through the 1338.50 level and hold To attempt to get out of trouble here

Jul 22, 2011 11:02 mike: need to stay over 37.50, no further

Jul 22, 2011 11:05 mike: 1338 held, but this is losing momentum, pullback likely, 1341-1342 area is still key resistance

Jul 22, 2011 11:11 mike: a break through 1337 would start a turn back down, 1338.50-1339.00 zone is still resistance. If exceeded, then could see 1341-1343., Should go back towards 1336 or lower if they fail up here again, and then break 1337.

Jul 22, 2011 11:19 mike: they run them up, then right back down. Still, this grind higher can continue as long as the 38.00-37.50 area holds , at the deepest here, otherwise it starts to roll over

Jul 22, 2011 11:27 mike: they all rolled over now, NQ especially (with resistance that 2410) and should lead the way. A break of 1337 should put the ES under pressure

Jul 22, 2011 11:42 mike: look for a pullback to 1338.25 area for a bounce back up, otherwise they can't test 1337 which is now key support

Jul 22, 2011 11:44 mike: if they hold that area, so far has, then the 41 area and the cards here

Jul 22, 2011 11:44 mike: a little late on that, 39 should hold a support now again

Jul 22, 2011 11:57 mike: 39.00 was bought, it needs pushed through 1341 needed soon here, and the NQ needs to push through the 2412 area to get going and try for 1342-1343

Jul 22, 2011 11:59 mike: we had a low made in the first hour, and then grind higher into the lunch time trading. A pullback from up here would not be unexpected. It looks like 1339 still holds the key

Jul 22, 2011 12:03 mike: should be a bounce high in place. If there is one more test of the 1340-1341 area that gets turned back, get short for a pullback towards the 1337 area

Jul 22, 2011 12:06 mike: I need to be away for a bit, about 10 minutes. I think I read this wrong, the market will avoid trouble unless the 1338.50 level breaks, and 2410.50 on the NASDAQ

Jul 22, 2011 12:23 mike: okay, it looks like the 1342.50-1343.00 area is going to be hard to push through. Risk on the long side going up. The 1340.50 level is the key support, a breakup that and around 2415 on the NQ. Must stay over those, or a trend change is starting, at least on a small basis

Jul 22, 2011 12:25 mike: NQ is acting toppy, rejected 2416 two times with good offers

Jul 22, 2011 12:29 mike: 1341.50 area on the ES is the same S. 2416 area on NQ. 1339 is a pivotis --it was resistance after broken, and then it turned into support again after it was taken out to the upside.there is also moving average support there also. That is a key area this afternoon below us. The 1342.50-1343.50 area is the key resistance that needs pushed through

Jul 22, 2011 12:57 mike: the ES has traded in a 2.75 point range, made on the 12: 10 PM-12:15 p.m. bars and has gone nowhere since. The NQ is on a tear on the upside. I guess nothing bad is going to happen as long as that stays strong, watching the 2417 level as trend support/break level there

Jul 22, 2011 13:08 mike: 2424.75-2426.00 area, actually 2424 is a key number, was turned away

Jul 22, 2011 13:10 mike: 1343.00-1343.75 on the ES was just messed. Those are the key resistance areas above. I think that those should be selling areas, to be bought again after a decent pullback occurs. We will see how the 1339 area holds, if the 1341 level gets pushed through to change this upside grind higher

Jul 22, 2011 13:29 mike: the market had a good grind higher off the low in the first hour, but it has been spinning its wheels up here for quite some time---just under the key resistance on both the ES and the NQ. It still takes a break under 2418 on NQ and 1340 now on the ES, to turn this down for a bit

Jul 22, 2011 13:42 mike: instead of taking profits this morning, I still have the puts bought when the ES was at 1342 yesterday. Right of love in this area. They haven't even given a good attempt to push through that high for an hour and a half. If they do push through, then a move up to the 1348 area is key on the upside. that should be a problem, but if not a surprise move up to the 1354 area could occur , but if that were to happen today or Monday I'm sure it would be a top of some sort.

Jul 22, 2011 13:49 mike: okay, be short stop over or at 1342.50, or just above. That shouldn't be exceeded if this is going to roll over this afternoon from resistance

Jul 22, 2011 13:53 mike: it's the NQ that is holding the ES up, but it is stuck at a resistance so this could still roll over here

Jul 22, 2011 14:02 mike: the ES is up to the top of the afternoon range, 1341.25 holds on a little pullback and turns up, then a pop up from there as possible. The ES has gone sideways, while the NQ continues to push higher so something has to give up here pretty soon

Jul 22, 2011 14:05 mike: okay, a high should be in now

Jul 22, 2011 14:07 mike: will be adding to the put position either end of day (if enough VIX sell signals or on Monday.

Jul 22, 2011 14:39 mike: a long and boring day, it looks like the NQ needs to break and hold under 2427 area, and the ES break 1340 in order to turn down. The ES has gone sideways all day, while the NQ has gone straight up. The divergence should get straightened out late today or Monday

Jul 22, 2011 15:00 mike: if the ES can get over 1342 and stick, then a late run up to 1348 could be in the cards. They will need to break 1340.50 in order to roll over, so not in danger at the moment

Jul 22, 2011 15:15 mike: that should be the end of a bounce

Jul 22, 2011 15:20 mike: I'm going to log out here. I still think that the market is set up for a pullback/selloff coming likely on Monday now. Have a good rest of the day, and a great weekend.

Thursday July 21, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Jul 21, 2011 9:21 mike: european crisis fix surpise ran mkt up, 1331.50-1332.50 a key area, should be a early high. if not 1335.50-1336.25 zone.. doubt that early. below, 1328.50 area small, 1326.75 gap fill is supp 1, 1323 area supp 2.

Jul 21, 2011 9:24 mike: 2395 on NQ good resist too, a high near there possible.

Jul 21, 2011 9:27 mike: also we get more econ data at 10am. a decent drop gets bought , but should pull back 31.50-32.50

Jul 21, 2011 9:35 mike: NQ good short on a bounce, buyers backing off in front of econ data. 26.75 s1

Jul 21, 2011 9:37 mike: s1 met, 28 now resist.

Jul 21, 2011 9:47 mike: 28.50-28.00 is pivot this morn, now supp ,

Jul 21, 2011 9:53 mike: mkt should be volatile, econ data soon, 32-31 area supp now , 28 area still pivotal on a drop. 38-39 area next resist if gunned higher from here

Jul 21, 2011 9:55 mike: 1335.50-1336.25 resist key now

Jul 21, 2011 9:58 mike: 32.50-31.50 key to stay over

Jul 21, 2011 10:04 mike: 32.50 held and shot to higher high. it has to stay over 32.50-32.00 on a dip to keep uptrend and not get toppy. 1338-1339 a strong resist to break / hold , or get that pullback

Jul 21, 2011 10:13 mike: 1 minute trend guide per ebook held on way up, at 1336.50, the 1338-1339 area can be exceeded if that holds

Jul 21, 2011 10:14 mike: 37.00-36.50 must hold or it gets toppy, 32 area a big supp now

Jul 21, 2011 10:21 mike: 37.00 held test 1, key area off 39.00 high at resist

Jul 21, 2011 10:31 mike: 39.50-38.50 needs held now

Jul 21, 2011 10:35 mike: only tiny pullback so far. 1339.50 is a dent in momentum, that 1337 level that was new supp is now the key area on a pullback. and around 12700 on Dow CASH

Jul 21, 2011 10:42 mike: 37.00-36.50 can get tested if 39.50 not defended here

Jul 21, 2011 10:50 mike: a hold so far, but losing steam. key to hold here, or 37.00-36.50 test, strong/ pivotal zone . i'll be back here in about 15-20 minutes

(Jul 21-11:06) mike: the market loss its gas, and now rollover. 37 is the key area to hold. 39.50 now resistance to get back over

(Jul 21-11:16) mike: a 3.50 point pullback is about as far as this should go to keep the trend up action going.. Otherwise done to the 37 area to see if the market still has a good bid on the deeper drop. 39.50 was rejected so a decent move lower could be in the cards here

(Jul 21-11:25) mike: they reach 37.25 to pullback off of the 39.50 rejection, this area here between 37.00-36.25 needs to be turned up quickly, or we could head back to 1332 area

(Jul 21-11:31) mike: the NQ is taking this downside a bit harder, keep an eye on that as it should lead. It has resistance now around 2405. The ES has resistance at 1338 area

(Jul 21-11:53) mike: there is a cluster of support at the 1332. Area so if there is another push down to that area, a balance should occur. They need to get back over the 1337 area to get back into an up trend,, or attempt to anyhow. The NQ still leading the way

(Jul 21-12:00) mike: F. 35.50 can hold here, we can get a pop-up works 38 area

(Jul 21-12:19) mike: still think we can see the 1332 area, especially if the 34 area goes here in the next few minutes

(Jul 21-12:33) mike: things have slowed down here over lunch time, 34.50 area has been tested twice and was bid up a bit, so that meets to hold here. If this gets up to 37.50-38.00 area and stalls, then another pullback to test that area to see how things are going to shape up this afternoon

(Jul 21-12:41) mike: the market caught another good bid, a pullback to the 38.00-37.50 area should hold

(Jul 21-12:46) mike: that debt deal is supposedly close to a resolution, thus the run-up. A pullback now needs to stay above the 39 area, at the very worst, to keep from making a little top up here

(Jul 21-12:51) mike: this is a very fluid situation in Washington, careful not to get run over. I stated earlier that this would be a volatile day, the 1335 area is major now I must hold

(Jul 21-12:51) mike: a bounce up to 1341 should be sold

(Jul 21-13:01) mike: I tested 41 but need to break 39.50 now to get a little shakeout to the downside.

(Jul 21-13:23) mike: there's still a good bid on the dips, so unless 1339.50 is broken there soon, upside stays intact. If they pop up to -1344, then reverse, that would set up a short, but so far the better trades are buying dips, we'll see how that is later

(Jul 21-13:30) mike: if this holds up into later in the day, should by some puts, a scale in. Indicators are giving very overbought, and close to some VIX signals (more then just one). Right now the ES needs to stay over 1341, or a break lower occurs.

(Jul 21-13:33) mike: rolling over, keep an eye on the NASA also. Could have a little double top

(Jul 21-13:34) mike: that's NASDAQ

(Jul 21-13:43) mike: scaling into some puts, also a play on the VIX could set up also. Those give some huge moves. With the VIX down more than 9% today, that's a nice move on a proxy

(Jul 21-13:46) mike: 1342 is good reason since now

(Jul 21-13:51) mike: this 3.50 point dip it's also at a moving average support,a bounce over 1341, that holds, needed to avoid trouble up here

(Jul 21-13:55) mike: 39.50 gave a bounce earlier, that's the cluster of support that needs to hold if there is going to be one more push higher

(Jul 21-13:56) mike: if that is broken, and not quickly reversed back up, then a move back towards 1337.75 area at the least could be in the works.

(Jul 21-14:08) mike: After the last update the ES shout up to 1343.50 on some news from Washington, and then the pullback held at the 1338 area. As long as 1339.50 holds, the market will avoid rolling over this afternoon. However, the market is getting very overbought and we are close to a number of sell signals on the VIX, so would urge caution on new longs up here. The market is more likely setting up for a decent pullback, rather than a breakout to higher highs.

(Jul 21-14:18) mike: could bounce here, must bounce here, but this move is long in the tooth, and looks like a potential top in the making as long as the 1342-1343 area is rejected once again on a bounce attempt

(Jul 21-14:34) mike: they have been bouncing, but not able to stick, since 1:30 PM Eastern. It's now 2:30 PM, we should get a move in this time frame, it looks like the market will avoid trouble if 1339 is not broken. The 1342-1343 area will need to be pushed through and held, not rejected again, to have this market look good enough to add another day to this rally.

(Jul 21-14:43) mike: it's starting to look like 1340.50 is pivotal in this area, needs to hold on this tax pullback to move higher. 1342-1343 should still be hard to get through and hold however.

(Jul 21-14:50) mike: 1342 area sold again. the next pullback should hold 1341 if there is going to be a push through the 1343.50 high of the day. If broken it can go right back out to 1339, that's key to avoid a break towards 1337 or lower

(Jul 21-14:58) mike: 1340.50 held,this is some strange action up here, but still acts like there are lots of offers above to help push the market down on bounces. The area around the highs, basically the 1343-1345 zone is a key area on the daily chart. Combine that with an overbought market, and a shift in this sentiment to the extremes, a market that's dangerous and could get hit hard on a break of some support.

(Jul 21-15:10) mike: 1342-1343 area has been sold on the pop-ups all afternoon, need a break of 1339 now to stick to turn this down. Pullbacks have held, but better now selling the 1342-1343 zone with a stop just above that

(Jul 21-15:24) mike: 1339 area still cluster of support, 1342-1343 still resistance. There could be a breakout/fake out so beware if there is a pop up over 1342.50, it could get sucked down. If 39 is broken, a quick turn up as possible also... but if not, then the ES should head to 1334.50 or so.

(Jul 21-15:32) mike: 30 minutes to go in the week, buyers still pulling bits at the 42 area, needs cleared to get a potential squeeze higher. Still favor a break, and 1339. Still key.

(Jul 21-15:36) mike: my error on 30 minutes left in the week. Tomorrow is Friday and the market is open. Stay with short side under 1342.50 now

(Jul 21-15:46) mike: back down to 1339... I'm calling it a day here, staying with some options(depending on any late stuff at the close), about one fourth of a position, and will see what tomorrow brings. Have a nice day

Wednesday July 20, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

Jul 20, 2011 9:24- mike: this gap up gets sold, 28.50 area resist, then 31 area ../ supp at 24, then 21-20 key.

Jul 20, 2011 9:24 - mike: Existing Home Sales at 10 am.

Jul 20, 2011 9:32 - mike: NQ should lead this today.

Jul 20, 2011 9:40 - mike: gap at 24.25 filled, 26 resist a sell under

Jul 20, 2011 9:41 - mike: NQ better sell, leader

Jul 20, 2011 9:42 - mike: 21-20 key to bounce from

Jul 20, 2011 9:49 - mike: 24.50 now key

Jul 20, 2011 9:53 - mike: 21-20 area met, housing data at 10am, 22.50 resist, then 24 area good resist ,

Jul 20, 2011 10:04 - mike: 22.50 was sold just before drop to 20.50 key supp area. had to be quick. that 20.50 sttill key this morn. the 24 area resist needs to hold. a 2 sided day

Jul 20, 2011 9:12 - mike: 24.25 resist sold, but 22.50 is pivotal supp on dip. if broken, 1320.50 low, dow cash 12550 area big areas to hold on drop. back in about 20 min

(Jul 20-10:51) mike: the ES poked just over the 1324 resistance, this pullback needs to hold around 21.50 at the lowest. me

(Jul 20-10:52) mike: look to sell the bounces, or look for a test of lower levels for trade on the long side.

(Jul 20-11:11) mike: that little pop up didn't stick, but need to stay over 1323.50 area, and the NASDAQ needs to keep moving higher.

(Jul 20-11:15) mike: a short with a tight stop. Kind of key here as today make or break area

(Jul 20-11:22) mike: The ES had a gap up open, and that strength was sold as the ES dropped from 1326.25 down to 1319.25 before bouncing. The bounce has stalled out just under 1325, and now needs to hold the 1322 area on a pullback here to avoid testing the low. If they get back there, the market should turn back up, or it will be topping out. If 1323.50 is held, then we could push on higher towards 1326 or so. It should be a two-sided day.

(Jul 20-11:29) mike: if you went short with a tight stop her earlier, look for 23.00-22.50 to cover at least part, that looks like good or key support. 1325 is still key on top

(Jul 20-11:42) mike: let 22.50 area was reversed, keeping this chop higher, then lower, going.

(Jul 20-11:49) mike: very toppy now, follow the NASDAQ sell bounces against 1325 on the ES

(Jul 20-12:02) mike: 1320.50 is a test of the low and also the second touch of the 60. EMA on the five-minute chart. That needs to hold, or some pressure could be on to press this back down towards 1318

(Jul 20-12:14) mike: buyers not going to give up it looks. As long as 1320.50 is held anyhow, a pushback over 22.50 needs to say up there, otherwise still in danger of a decent pullback

(Jul 20-12:16) mike: not much to say while this gyrates in a narrow range. Not unusual action after he trend day we had yesterday

(Jul 20-12:34) mike: Bears are now in control as long as 1322 not cleared

(Jul 20-12:45) mike: a drop-down towards 1316 area possible if this breaks here and get some momentum

(Jul 20-12:45) mike: need to stay under 1322 to keep pressure on, or take it out if there is to be a bounce back

(Jul 20-12:49) mike: it's a scalper market almost all day, pick your spots if you're going to trade this back and forth action. It's a hit and run type of day on trades

(Jul 20-13:12) mike: I need to push over 1323, and not break 1321.50, to keep this little grind higher going. Otherwise it could roll over again

(Jul 20-13:54) mike: this dryness continued, and as long as 1324.50 is held it can keep pushing higher

(Jul 20-13:56) mike: if they break 1324 area, then this balance might be over. Keep an eye on the NQ also, it looks like 2391-2390 area important there

(Jul 20-14:05) mike: watch for a potential double top, or reversal from 1327-1328 area is no double top, but instead a pop up that reverses from that area. Still, a break of 1324.50-1324.00 is needed to break this uptrend

(Jul 20-14:38) mike: double top, vulnerable here under 1326, more so if 1324.50 is broken

(Jul 20-14:49) mike: if he got short, take something off at 23, trail stop on the remainder

(Jul 20-14:51) mike: the 23 area was kind of pivotal on the way up, and is now on the way down. A bounce back to 1324.50 should be sold if the market is turning weak

(Jul 20-14:56) mike: a pop up to 1324 rejected, that is key here to get over and hold to avoid a trip back towards 1320

(Jul 20-15:09) mike: if you aren't going to roll over and close poorly today, then this bounce should not take out 1324.50 and hold, that should be rejected. However on the other side of the coin, if 23 can hold and they push over 24.50, then a decent close near the high could occur

(Jul 20-15:18) mike: we have had a narrow range day, with a with a double top around 1326 and a double bottom around 1320. and now 1323 is the middle of that, and should be pivotal here end of day. That looks to be the key to staying up here and trying to make another push higher tomorrow morning or into the close. only a late break of that 1323 level puts a damper on this day. Have a good rest of the day, I need to leave a bit early today. There will be an update tonight. And then I'll see you here in the morning .take care

Thursday July 14, 2011

(time stamps are EST)

(Jul 14-09:57) mike: 22 area key here , 21 supp must hold

(Jul 14-10:07) mike: the ES a sell on a test of 22 area in reverse, 20.50 must hold or the 19-18 area

(Jul 14-10:14) mike: if you got short at 22, take cover on at least part here or at the 19-18 area, should be support their...

(Jul 14-10:15) mike: 21.75 is resistance that needs to be cleared it looks

(Jul 14-10:24) mike: 22.00-22.50 key resistance, and it's the 19-18 area on the downside that needs to hold

(Jul 14-10:34) mike: stay with the short side unless 1320 is exceeded/held

(Jul 14-10:41) mike: NASDAQfutures rejected the 2369-2370 zone from yesterday, and pulling the market down here

(Jul 14-10:43) mike: the 2350-2348 area there is very key it appears. that and 1315.need to hold or will go for a test of 1312 and maybe save in 1308.50 area

(Jul 14-10:49) mike: 19.50 resistance now

(Jul 14-10:52) mike: 17.50-18.25 area is trend down resistance, NASDAQ action horrible and ES should follow

(Jul 14-10:57) mike: 12.50-12.00 area, need a good reversal there... which is doubtful, we should see the 1308 area if this continues

(Jul 14-11:02) mike: 1313 held but needs to get back over 1315.50, and stick, to get a decent bounce going, it will fail

(Jul 14-11:09) mike: 16.50 should offer some resistance, but 18.50-19.50 the strong resistance on a bounce

(Jul 14-11:16) mike: a slinky pattern, a test of the low could give a a bounce attempt, if broken instead then 1308.50 is in the cards.

(Jul 14-11:24) mike: the bounces have no gusto, just a three-point blip up, then they stall in rollover. Unless this action changes, markets still is in trouble this morning. A push over 1316.50 is needed to break this at the moment, NASDAQ still leading the way

(Jul 14-11:31) mike: still need to move over 16.50 in order to take some pressure off. Bears and control still unless that occurs
(Jul 14-11:34) mike: we should still see 1308.50if this 12.50-12.00 zone goes

(Jul 14-11:42) mike: 14.00-14.50. Now resistance

(Jul 14-11:47) mike: the high was made an hour into trading. We had a good short entry at 1322, and after breaking the 19-18 support it has been trending down. A bounce of more than 3.50 points, or a move back over 1316 even better, needed to change the pace. The market stays bearish unless that occurs

(Jul 14-11:52) mike: 14.25 rejected, and the NASDAQ rolled over again, so the beat goes on for now

(Jul 14-11:53) mike: it's slowing down I'll be back in a bit

(Jul 14-12:03) mike: just small bounces of 2.75-3.50 points, had the most, since the downdraft started. Stay with shorts until that rhythm is broken, 1308.50 area still can be seen

(Jul 14-12:09) mike: Need a push over 1314.50, and not turn right back down... otherwise no change in what's going on in 1308 50 still in the cards. Keep and edyeon the NASDAQ as it has led the way down all morning

(Jul 14-12:12) mike: should take out 1310.50while it's down here, to keep from having an inside day on the ES

(Jul 14-12:19) mike: 1308.50 was not here. It doesn't look like it's over yet., but make sure to lock in some profit on your trades 1311. Now resistance, bounce

(Jul 14-12:21) mike: a bounce of 2.50-3.00 points is still a short, this could last into the afternoon so don't fight the trend, use bounces to short, 1305.50. Next support

(Jul 14-12:30) mike: 10.50-11.25 should not be exceeded now, NASDAQ looks wickedly ugly

(Jul 14-12:45) mike: acted like a low down there, they could turn down herefrom the 11 area, a cluster of resistance, but still bounce back if 1309.50 can hold

(Jul 14-12:48) mike: 1311.25 still looks like the key area to get over and hold now. Even if they bounce here. That's the key area now

(Jul 14-12:53) mike: there could be a short cover bounce after a test or break of the low, but expect a 2.50-3.50 point bounce thereafter to fail. It's done that all day

(Jul 14-12:58) mike: 1305.50-1305.00 support, but I still think we have a shot at 1298 before this is over with. Until proven otherwise, with a bounce back over the 1310 area now, stay short or use those bounces to reenter if scalping

(Jul 14-12:58) mike: I have talked a lot today. Maybe too much. Next update on something different occurs

(Jul 14-13:09) mike: the 1305.50-1305.00 area in a small bounce so far. That looks to be the only area in the way of getting down to the 1298 area. The ES needs to get over 1308.50 now and hold in order to put a dent in the down side

(Jul 14-13:23) mike: 1305 area is now resistance on this bounce

(Jul 14-13:28) mike: this is the best bounce since the downdraft began. 1308 area appears to be pivotal.

(Jul 14-13:35) mike: nice run-up, stopped at the 12.50 area which is the old key support. A low should be in place now, at least for a law. The 1308 area should be good support on a pullback if this bounce is for real

(Jul 14-13:38) mike: meant to say "at least for a while" 1308.25 pullback low so far, if that is not defended, then the 1305.75 area should be next

(Jul 14-13:56) mike: they just missed 1305.75. They need to say just above that, and Bush over 1308.75 with some gusto, otherwise the market is still vulnerable

(Jul 14-14:01) mike: I met "push".... 1308.75 is support now that must hold...sorry about the "typos"--I'm using voice software and here it doesn't come out the way I say it yet.

(Jul 14-14:07) mike: consider the 1311.75-1312.50 area as a major pivotal resistance. That needs to be cleared, then held on a pullback, to begin to dig out of this hole. Otherwise we could still go back to the 1298 area, breaking that 1305.75 level is needed first.

(Jul 14-14:21) mike: 1312 was sold, but over a town yet unless 1309 breaks. A rising wedge breaks there

(Jul 14-14:28) mike: 12 was sold in the break of 1309.50 broke the wedge, though 6.50-05 .75 needs to hold, or they can slide right down to 1302 area.

(Jul 14-14:29) mike: a bounce back to the 1310.25 area should be rejected

(Jul 14-14:35) mike: keep an eye on the NASDAQ still leads this around today. It has good resistance around 2334

(Jul 14-14:42) mike: I need to be away for a bit back in about 10 minutes

(Jul 14-14:55) mike: go 5.75 met, but it's a short under 1309.25 , the wedge break level

(Jul 14-14:56) mike: The market continued lower after the last update, grinding down to the 1302 level before reversing. The bounce back stopped at the 1312.00-1312.50 area. That will need to be cleared, and then held on a pullback to begin to dig out of this hole. If that is rejected again, then it dropped back towards the lows, or the 1298 area, could still be in the cards.

Reminder: there will not be an update tonight due to my son's All-Star game. The next update will be from the instant message room on Friday morning.

(Jul 14-15:15) mike: got a test of the low, need to get over 1306.50, then 1308.50 even more so. Otherwise, 1298 is still in the cards.

(Jul 14-15:16) mike: have a nice rest of the day. I'll see you here in the morning