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Wednesday - March 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 10-10:25) mike: if 44 break/ hold then 1142 is now key supp
(Mar 10-10:26) mike: the mkt ok as long as 42 not broken

(Mar 10-11:23) mike: The 1147-1148 zone was rejected, but as long as the 1146.00-1145.50 area is held, the market will avoid a reversal

(Mar 10-12:15) mike: The 1146.00-1145.50 area was broken, and it was then rejected on a bounce. That's a short if tested. If 11444.50 is is not exceeded then the 1136 area could be in the cards.

(Mar 10-13:37) mike: a wedge break possible, 1142 must hold now

(Mar 10-14:43) mike: need 46 to break

(Mar 10-15:30) mike: stay short bounces, you'll get em back

(Mar 10-15:40) mike: 44.50 resist. topped out, a swing here

Tuesday - March 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 09-10:06) mike: 36 need to hold, mkt ok over that

(Mar 09-10:29) mike: The gap down open was reversed and rallied to 1139.50-1140.00 so far. A break of 1138.00-1137.50 should change the trends. The 1136 area is key and must hold to avoid a test of the lows.

(Mar 09-10:55) mike: 39 now must hold, trend day unless broken

(Mar 09-11:05) mike: those are tops, sell em on a pop,

(Mar 09-11:30) mike: 123 top possible. 1138 key / pivotal supp

(Mar 09-11:42) mike: 1141.50-1142.00 a short if reversred for a scalp , maybe more

(Mar 09-13:06) mike: The 1141.50-1142.00 area was exceeded in trend up mode so far. A pullback should be no more than 3 ES points, otherwise the pace is broken. That 1142 area now should be pivotal.

(Mar 09-13:45) mike: a top up there sell 44.25, stop over high
(Mar 09-13:46) mike: 42 verry key sup

(Mar 09-14:44) mike: thats a 123 top, use strength to get swing trade short

(Mar 09-15:22) mike: The 1142 area was broken and then was resistance on a bounce and the market is a short on any strength now.

(Mar 09-15:22) mike: stay short

Monday - March 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 08-10:21) mike: The early strength reversed about 15 minutes in but so far the pullback held at 1137.00 and turned up. It should be a 2-sided day with the NQ leading the way. The 1137 area must hold or things change.

(Mar 08-10:36) mike: 123 top, sell bounces under 1140

(Mar 08-11:51) mike: The ES made a 123 type top off the 1140 level and the 1137 level was broken. The market is vulnerable and a short unless the 1140 area is exceeded and held on a pullback. The 1133.00-1132.50 area should not break, or this is more than a pullback.

(Mar 08-11:54) mike: 37.50 shouldn't be exceeded . held
(Mar 08-11:55) mike: IF they somehow get to 38.50 and stall, a good short

(Mar 08-13:05) mike: 38 now supp / must hold

(Mar 08-13:54) mike: 1141.50-1142.00 next if no reversal under 39.00-38.50 supp

(Mar 08-14:46) mike: The 1140 area has been tough to break through, but for now it would take a break/hold under 1138 to turn the market lower.

(Mar 08-15:34) mike: i'm avoiding longs for now, if 36.00-35.50 breaks, we will have a top in

(Mar 08-16:00) mike: carrying over shorts from 39.50 or yo there near 1894 over night
(Mar 08-16:00) mike: have a great rest of the day

Friday - March 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Mar 5, 2010 9:15 mike: 1125.50-1124.50 support
Mar 5, 2010 9:17 mike: 1132.00-1133.00 key resist

Mar 5, 2010 10:17 mike: don't short this zone unless 31.50 broken
Mar 5, 2010 10:18 mike: mkt ok over 1131.50 - but small short here
Mar 5, 2010 10:19 mike: stop over 1133
Mar 5, 2010 10:20 mike: 31.50 must break and 30.50 is good supp so its a scalp
Mar 5, 2010 10:22 mike: wait to see id 31 gets broken, a good bid to this.

Mar 5, 2010 10:32 mike: The gap up open was sold but the first dip was reversed from 1126 and a stair step higher is in gear. Gap days can be trend days and the market is in good shape unless the 1131.50-1130.75 zone is broken. If that happens, then a high could be in place.

Mar 5, 2010 10:34 mike: 33.00-32.50 should hold to avoid weakening up here
Mar 5, 2010 10:37 mike: if no bounce here, a high is in for awhile
Mar 5, 2010 10:41 mike: toppy now , a short up here
Mar 5, 2010 10:43 mike: 32.50 needs to break here soon to roll over a bit

Mar 5, 2010 10:48 mike: 31.50-30.75 zone is good support if 32.50 breaks. a wedge type pattern, a pop to a lower high that reverses is a better short since 32.50 holding

Mar 5, 2010 11:02 mike: dips are shallow on trend days, for now only a break of 32.50 changes trend

Mar 5, 2010 11:20 mike: must push thru 34.50 soon

Mar 5, 2010 11:31 mike: 123 top
Mar 5, 2010 11:31 mike: a short unnder 34.50 now

Mar 5, 2010 11:38 mike: 32.50 supp lock in at least partial proffit on any shorts, tighten stop

Mar 5, 2010 11:43 mike: The ES reached 1134.50 and then after a dip the 1134.50 level was tested and reversed. The 1132.50-1132.00 area now needs to hold to avoid rolling over.

Mar 5, 2010 12:17 mike: feels ready to break soon , must get over 33.50 n not reverse

Mar 5, 2010 12:28 mike: A very small range up here. with 32.50 holding, trend day still intact. a very extended move, a bbreak could be sharp lean

Mar 5, 2010 12:46 mike: The 1132.50-1132.00 area is good support on a trend day and only a break of that will turn the market down.

Mar 5, 2010 13:18 mike: Watch for a turn in the 2:20-2:40 timeframe. the 32.50 level very key now that a token higher high.

(Mar 05-13:31) mike: mkt getting tired, i'm shorting NQ if 1885 is broken and they bounce, or if they test 1888 and stall or are rejected

(Mar 05-13:43) mike: it looked like a top, but still must break 32.50 to roll over

(Mar 05-13:59) mike: a scalp mkt both ways. not short at this moment. need prrof i believe

(Mar 05-14:07) mike: a toss up -- still trend up so if a dip to 33 area reverses, buy for a bounce. the upside appears limited the way they struggle up here all day, but not fighting a trend day

(Mar 05-14:13) mike: that was not good, short bounces now
(Mar 05-14:15) mike: the token new high 2 times today sold, if they pop up there and reverse, lots of longs wants to take profit up there

(Mar 05-14:40) mike: The 1132.50 area has held all day, but a poke over the 1135.00 high will likely reverse. Still, it will take a break/hold under 1133.00-1132.50 now to damage the trend up move.

(Mar 05-14:52) mike: 1136 needs to hold

(Mar 05-15:11) mike: the low was made about 15 minutes into trading. if 37 can hold, the high should be made with 15 minutes left in stock tading
(Mar 05-15:15) mike: 2:42pm they accelerate the uptrend. this will reverse on monday, possibly from up in the 1140's but up here i feel the next big move is in the other direction towards 1125-ish

(Mar 05-15:20) mike: 37 a key area now. a pop here won't stick , must break/ hold over 38

(Mar 05-15:41) mike: support at 35.50-35.00 breakout area. 38 still must be taken out , nq already topped

(Mar 05-15:56) mike: there should be good volatility next week. mkt vulnerable under 38. enjoy the rest of your day, and weekend

Thursday - March 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 04-09:47) mike: top i think, sell under 22.50-23.00

(Mar 04-09:54) mike: careful short unless 1120 is broken , a sclp only
(Mar 04-10:00) mike: tht should be it
(Mar 04-10:05) mike: 22.50-23.00 must be cleared / held. a toppy area. or break/ hold under 20.00
(Mar 04-10:05) mike: short under 23 here,

(Mar 04-10:22) mike: 18.50-17.50 a support to scalp out
(Mar 04-10:24) mike: 21.00-21.50 good resist now
(Mar 04-10:29) mike: The early strength was reversed at 1123, the breakdown area from yesterday. That should be a top, and bounces are still shorting opportunities. The 111.80-1118.00 area will ned to hold to avoid testing/ breaking the 1115.50-1115.25 area

(Mar 04-10:37) mike: stay with shorts, 1120.50 again key resist

(Mar 04-10:43) mike: key supp nailed, 1112-1111 still likely if 18.50-19.00 not exceeded

(Mar 04-10:54) mike: The ES dropped down 7.50 points to the 1115.50-1115.25 area and turned up. The 1112-1111 area could be seen if 1118.50-1119.00 is not exceeded and held.

(Mar 04-11:00) mike: not impressive bounce from a key area. 3 days now w/ a low in that 1115.50-1115.25, and that was former resist. a transistion to the ownside occurs if/ when that is broken

(Mar 04-11:17) mike: 1120.00-1120.50 key resist again. 18.50 supp now need to hold or we drop again

(Mar 04-11:33) mike: they should cave in here

(Mar 04-11:51) mike: The ES reached 1120.00 on the bounce from the 1115.50 low. That area was tested 3 days in a row now, and was a former resistance area. That is a major area that must hold, or the market makes a bigger picture transition to the downside. On top here, the 1120.00-1120.50 zone is still a pivotal resistance zone. We are in a choppy trading range right now, but the market is still vulnerable unless that 1120.00-1120.50 zone is cut through with some momentum.

(Mar 04-12:08) mike: be short under 1120.00-1120.50, its a lid like 1122.75 was yesterday after breaking 1123. a 2 point range for awhile should break bfore 12:15

(Mar 04-12:40) mike: 3rd failure at/under 1120, that should be it, a bounce off 1117.75 area is a must - or to 1115 we go again

(Mar 04-13:00) mike: as long as the bottom of the range keeps being bid, buy em down there and sell em at the top of this range. keep it light and use a tight stop on other side of range both ways

(Mar 04-13:18) mike: 19.50-19.00 should/ must hold now

(Mar 04-13:27) mike: it broke, a bounce will fail to clear 1120.50 resist still
(Mar 04-13:31) mike: poor action, if there is a pop its a short w/ stop over 20.50

(Mar 04-13:49) mike: this range trade, small daily ranges, it winding the mkt into an energy explosion soon. its not good id 1115 isn't reversed.
(Mar 04-13:51) mike: all of these drop lately were bid right back up but then failing. this shouldn't exceeded 1119.50 or so now

(Mar 04-14:06) mike: 19.00 reached with Tick extreme, now mid range too - key spot if going lower here

(Mar 04-14:26) mike: it looks like we'll chop around in between 1120-ish and 1115-ish before employment data in the morning. the NQ is acting pretty well. but ES is sluggish. don't get chopped up in this, tomorrow a better day volatility-wise


(Mar 04-14:30) mike: the NQ held 1850-1849 three times this morning, thats the key to holding the mkt up, if they drop here, it must be defended a 4th time, not easy

(Mar 04-14:42) mike: The ES turned up from 1117.75 and the NQ held 1850-1849 three times this afternoon and we got a pop up to 1120.25 so far. The market is in decent shape as long as those lows are held on a pullback, but still the odds of a bounce holding doesn't look good.

(Mar 04-15:04) mike: another failure. internal gauges will have bearish divergence so 1115 area could break tomorrow

(Mar 04-15:26) mike: they made a little double top at 20.75 but shallow pullback. that 1119 should hold, or else they'll get hit in the last 30 minutes.

(Mar 4-15:54) mike: looks like 1120.50-1120.00 is now supp - update will be short and later than normal. have a good rest of the day

Wednesday - March 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 03-09:29) mike: 19.25-18.50 needs to hold now,

(Mar 03-09:33) mike: short under 20.50
(Mar 03-09:35) mike: 18.50 supp 1

(Mar 03-09:48) mike: ISM Services top of the hour. 1118 is key supp now

(Mar 03-10:05) mike: start getting swing trade short on bounce, highs should be in
(Mar 03-10:09) mike: 1120.50 is pivotal, a break of that takes them to 1118 , a major area today

(Mar 03-10:16) mike: 1120.25 low there... still, 1122 needs to be cleared/ held to avoid trouble

(Mar 03-10:21) mike: 123 pattern

(Mar 03-10:27) mike: The ES opened higher, pulled back to 1118.25, then turned back up and took out the 1122.75 high from yesterday. The 1120 level needs to hold to avoid a reversal now. A turn down near 1123 is a short, but the pressure is not on unless 1120 and then 1118 are broken.

(Mar 03-10:29) mike: that 123 pattern should mark a top / 1122.50 resist now must be cleared to nullify it

(Mar 03-10:50) mike: nq rejected 1859 area 4 times, needs taken out -- a break under 1855 there could bring the mkt down. and break a wedge pattern -- but still, 1120 is the line in the sand . nothing bad happens unless broken

(Mar 03-11:05) mike: The ES turned down from 1123.25 but only dipped to 1121.75 before turning back up and reaching 1124.50 so far. The 1122.50-1122.00 area now needs to hold to avoid breaking the trend and starting a decent pullback. The 1126.50-1128.00 area is next resistance on this move up, and a potential reversal area if the move stalls out.

(Mar 03-11:10) mike: 23.50 needs to hold now or trends change

(Mar 03-11:29) mike: mkt getting tired here, but as long as 1123 holds the trend up move continues. if broken, then things change. 26.50-28.00 should offer good resist if reached

(Mar 03-11:42) mike: tired mkt , a bounce from 1123 here is a short

(Mar 03-11:53) mike: 24.25 should not be exceed/ held now and 23 must break within next 5-10 minutes, maximum, to roll over

(Mar 03-12:00) mike: The ES has been in a choppy trend up mode to 1125, and now must stay over 1123 to avoid a reversal. The 1126.50-1128.00 area is still possible, but the 1123 level must not break. Also, trend moves into a 2pm Fed announcement are usually reversed so careful with any long positions into that timeframe.

(Mar 03-12:07) mike: a pullback to 1120.50-1119.75 is a key area for today, if that is not reversed the bigger picture changes to bearish.
(Mar 03-12:11) mike: if the mkt tests the highs [tho it shouldn't] or makes a lower high and stalls out, a swing trade short is in order, this is all set up for a flop very soon.

(Mar 03-12:49) mike: The NQ would need to get over 1858, mkt still in sell bounce mode

(Mar 03-12:57) mike: The market reversed afterthe 123 top/ double top at 1125 and the break of 1123 turned trends down. The bounces are shorts as per last night's update the downside could gather steam. The 1120.50-1119.75 area is key support and a break would be another sign of a break down.

(Mar 03-13:04) mike: well they proved that 1120.50-1119.75 is a key area. a scalp long from there if tested/ reversed but don't get married to a long up here

(Mar 03-13:36) mike: the target on swing trade is 1112-1111 area on 1/2 of it. need a break / hold here under 1120 for more pressure

(Mar 03-13:47) mike: The 1120.50 level gave a bounce to 1122.75, but it didn't stick as support has turned into resistance. The 1120.50-1119.75 area is being tested and after the Beige book a break/hold under that area would put pressure on the downside. The 1112-1111 area could be tested if that occurs.

(Mar 03-14:18) mike: 22.75 shouldn't be exceeded, still a short on bouces

(Mar 03-14:24) mike: 1115.25 should be tested, 1112-1111 still a tarrget. 22.50-23.00 good resist

(Mar 03-14:32) mike: 1120.50-1121.00 initial resist on a bounce , beware if Vix closes the day up. it will give 4 of 5 possible sell sigs
(Mar 03-14:37) mike: The 1122.75 resistance turned the market back down and the break of 1120.50 opened the door for more selling. Bounces will not hold so stay with shorts down to 1115 or the 1112-1111 zone. The 1120.50-1121.00 should offer good resistance, and 1122.75 now key resistance.

(Mar 03-14:41) mike: if NQ breaks 1849, that could add pressure now

(Mar 03-14:47) mike: if you have shorts from around 1123 or so, and a day trade, cover at least some dn here
(Mar 03-14:47) mike: swing trade, still have 1112-1111 in site, maybe not today
(Mar 03-14:51) mike: some support down here, but a top in and could see a larger drop before done on the downside

(Mar 03-15:03) mike: 1850 on NQ looks key to get over/ hld now. ES should stay under 1120

(Mar 03-15:13) mike: should fail in here under 19 if going lower
(Mar 03-15:16) mike: under 1120.00-1120.50 resist - 1853-54 NQ

(Mar 03-15:22) mike: a break of 17.50 needed to put pressure on

(Mar 03-15:30) mike: 17.50 held. still, bounce will have a hard time sticking. 1120.50 area still key above

(Mar 03-15:50) mike: key area to end the day near. as long as 17.50 holds, it can avoid breaking down tomorrow

(Mar 03-15:52) mike: fyi, there is still an opening for trading camp that starts on Sunday. we'll cover why this selling was ''high odds'' to start. contact tradestalker2@verizon.net if you are interested.
(Mar 03-15:54) mike: watch 1120.00-1120.50 for resist overnight, a key area now. enjoy the rest of your day.

Tuesday- March 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 02-09:21) mike: 1121.50-1122.50 rejected - very key resist now this morning

(Mar 02-09:51) mike: 1119.75 shouldn't be exceeded / held now - it must to avoid trouble

(Mar 02-10:07) mike: A 123 Top

(Mar 02-10:15) mike: short the bounces down to 1115-1114 or lower, ugly pattern

(Mar 02-10:21) mike: 18.50-19.25 area should besold if a valid reversal

(Mar 02-10:34) mike: stopped at 18.75 and dip to 17.50. it looks like 17.50 is pivotal this morn - a break/ hold turns trend down. over it, no damage done and 1121.50-1122.50 key resist above

(Mar 02-11:16) mike: this stair step higher is bullish, 1119.50 needs to hold . for a scalp the 1121.50-1122.50 area on the ES and 1856.75-1858.00 area on the NQ is a short with a tight top just over the zones

(Mar 02-11:27) mike: if 1120 ES and 1854 NQ break, then we get a drop to 17.50 or so. mkt ''okay'' unless we get that break

(Mar 02-11:45) mike: the ES needs to get thru 1121.75 soon, losing momentum churning at resist area

(Mar 02-11:50) mike: i'll be back in 30 min or so, still ill

(Mar 02-12:26) mike: 17.50 must hold, top in for awhile

(Mar 02-12:32) mike: The 1121.50-1122.50 area on the ES was a lid on top for about an hour, and that might be it for the rally if the 1117.50 area breaks. If that happens, then the 1112.00-1111.25 zone is huge and could be tested.

(Mar 02-13:03) mike: 1121.00 should be rejected if topping out up here today

(Mar 02-13:55) mike: a real snoozer so far, tomorrow we get Fed Beige book, and that will start an increase in volatility. narrow range, low volatility at a high for a move is normally bearish. the daily indicators getting close to overbought - and Vix looking similar to the 2/19 top. imo, not time to be long but for scalps up here . it will take a break of 1119 that isn't reversed right away to put any selling pressure on, so thats a key supp this afternoon.

(Mar 02-14:03) mike: 21.00 area needs to be strong supp now

(Mar 02-14:14) mike: The ES pulled back to 1118.75 and turned back up and just poked over the 1122.50 resistance by 1 tick and backed away. The market should be close to a top for this leg up, and the 1119 area needs to hold or a top will likely be in place.

(Mar 02-14:30) mike: a bounce to test the highs is a gift short, NQ especially. but top looks in place, 1121 now good resist

(Mar 02-15:11) mike: Since reversing from 1122.75 the ES pulled back to test the early lows reaching 1117.25 so far. It will take a break and hold back over 1121 in order to get out of trouble today.

(Mar 02-15:14) mike: holding over 19 should be hard to do if this is going lower

(Mar 02-15:20) mike: that 19 area needs to be exceeded / held or going quite a bit lower

(Mar 02-15:38) mike: a token lower low, day trade shorts should cover 16.75 or better

(Mar 02-15:45) mike: 15 min left, but this could see 1114.50 before close. 17 shouldnt be exceeded
(Mar 02-15:49) mike: not going to see 14.50 now. 18.50-19.25 very good resist
 

Monday- March 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Mar 01-09:43) mike: 1110.50 rejected, 1108.50-1108.00 needs to hold to avoid reversal. 1829 on NQ

(Mar 01-10:12) mike: The ES reached the 1110.50-1111.00 zone and the move reversed about 16 minutes in, and then spiked to a low at 1107.25 on the ISM release and turned right back up. As long as the 1107.25-1106.50 area is held, the market will be in decent shape. Just be aware of a reversal from the 1114.50-1115.00 zone.

(Mar 01-10:19) mike: 1111.00-1110.50 supp, must hold to keep uptrends going

(Mar 01-10:36) mike: a bounce from here a short if stalls near 1111.50
(Mar 01-10:40) mike: that sure acted like a top. if the 1107 breaks today, then a decent pullback is underway

(Mar 01-10:56) mike: sell em in here near 1112, tight stop
(Mar 01-10:58) mike: need a break of 1111 soon , else scratch out, 15 seonds
(Mar 01-10:59) mike: scalped out of that.
(Mar 01-11:00) mike: 1111.00-1110.50 must break soon here
(Mar 01-11:04) mike: back short, tight stop as looks like a pivotal area here
(Mar 01-11:06) mike: 1111 needs to break soon t have dbl top on Dow at 10400
(Mar 01-11:08) mike: back off shorts for now, unless 1111 breaks or 1115 area reversed

(Mar 01-11:27) mike: The ES pulled back to 1108.75 and rallied to 1114.50 resistance so far. It has been a coppy trend up move but if the 1111.50-1111.00 area is broken, then that 1114.50-1115.00 area should be a top. If that area is exceeded, then 1117.50-1118.00 should be reversed.

(Mar 01-11:31) mike: that if 1112.50 is broken, then trends change. a pop to 1114.50-1115.00 area is a short zone with a tight stop.

(Mar 01-11:49) mike: a little 123 top, or double top at resist. need to stay over 1111.75 now - 20ema on 5 min chart held 2 times so far and rolls over if broken

(Mar 01-12:12) mike: if short from up here scalp out then buy a dip that holds over 1112 - if 15.00 breaks we can possibly see 1118-ish.... as long as 1112 is held

(Mar 01-12:16) mike: The market has been in a choppy trend up mode but failed twice at the 1114.50-1115.00 area so far. A pullback should hold over 1112 now or the trend move will be reversing.

(Mar 01-12:30) mike: option prices cheap, i'm buying some qqqq puts for a swing trade / decent pullback. reward/ risk on these look good

(Mar 01-12:55) mike: toppy up here, 1110.25 is 60ema and earlier low area - now a key area on a drop. then 1108. IF 1115 exceeded, then upside to 1118 possible, but upside lost mo

(Mar 01-13:02) mike: The 1112 level was broken and unless the 1114.50-1115.00 area is exceeded and not quickly reversed the pullback could go towards the 1108 area, and if that's not reversed then towards the 1105.50-1104.50 zone today.

(Mar 01-13:10) mike: that 1111.25 was a support around 11am this morning, and 1111 was old dbl top also... that area must hold or a sizable move lower is possible

(Mar 01-13:19) mike: if heading lower, this pop should fail and reverse from no higher than 13.75 here nd drop again soon

(Mar 01-13:50) mike: as long as 1111.50-1111.00 holds, more important today the 1842 little double bottom on NQ, the mkt will avoid any damage done. just beware of selling near 1117.50-1118.00 area if 1115 exceeded / held

(Mar 01-14:08) mike: shorting against resist until broken or 1111 tested

(Mar 01-14:18) mike: back to buying dips over 1113
(Mar 01-14:19) mike: 14.00-13.50 should hold if heading towards 1117
(Mar 01-14:22) mike: a prairie dog. tricky action. short a pop , especially if 1113.50 break here

(Mar 01-14:53) mike: i'm a bit under the weather here. this drop needs to hold 1111 area, otherwise we start to get hit with more selling. a break/ hold over 14.50 to take pressure off. back in awhile

(Mar 01-15:46) mike: a narrow range day must stay over 1112 area now or its a tip-off for a selloff
(Mar 01-15:48) mike: QQQQ puts slightly profitable here, a carry over for deeper drop here

Friday- February 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 26-10:35) mike: somehow my updates didn't get thru here. fixed now i hope. this is sell on a pop here, resist still rejected
(Feb 26-10:36) mike: 1101.50 is a key supp now , thats the break level
(Feb 26-10:38) mike: 07.50-08.00 next resist .
(Feb 26-10:41) mike: a reversal from up here likely, but dips are buying opportunity as long as 1101.50 area holds
(Feb 26-10:49) mike: The ES had more trouble at the 1103.50-1104.25 resistance and dropped to 1096.25 before reversing and taking out that resistance. The 1107-1108 area is a short if reached and reversed. The 1101.50-1101.00 area needs to hold on a pullback or else a top could be in place.

(Feb 26-10:55) mike: if 1101.50 holds, a bounce to a lower high a short
(Feb 26-10:59) mike: NQ MUST STAY OVER 1814, or its a sign of weakness

(Feb 26-11:24) mike: bounce to lower high reversed. 1105 should not be exceeded
(Feb 26-11:28) mike: the mkt holding ok. would be careful shorting for now, hit n run. 1101.50 is still key supp, 1814 NQ
(Feb 26-11:31) mike: scalp out if short, need break of 1102

(Feb 26-11:46) mike: mkt getting a bit tired. a wedge type pattern too
(Feb 26-11:50) mike: 1103 also 20ema on 5 min chart, which held on last 2 dips - and 1105 held for 2 seconds

(Feb 26-12:00) mike: The ES bounced to a lower high and REVERSED has pulled back towards the 1102.00-1101.50 support. If the 1105 area is rejected again, and/or the 1102.00-1101.50 area is broken, then things change and the bears would then take control.

(Feb 26-12:15) mike: 03.00-03.50 good resist, shouldn't be exceeded

(Feb 26-12:50) mike: be short under 02.50
(Feb 26-12:53) mike: 1099 should be seen
(Feb 26-12:57) mike: i'm unable to see messages - sorry. if 1099.0-1098.50 is not held, we can drop towards / thru the lows

(Feb 26-13:08) mike: struggling here under resist...
(Feb 26-13:09) mike: 1818 is also good resist,
(Feb 26-13:11) mike: however if 02.00-02.50 cleared again, and not reversed, could get a run towards 1107-1108 and that would be a short.

(Feb 26-13:28) mike: this is getting a bit stretched out, but its a buy above 1101.50 - if tht breaks its a fakeout
(Feb 26-13:30) mike: 1103.25 cover if long
(Feb 26-13:32) mike: a fake out move, next pop a short
(Feb 26-13:33) mike: ok, careful of reversal but they ok over 02.00 still

(Feb 26-13:45) mike: toppy here, but if 02.50 holds then 1105 still possible, 1107-1108 a big area if 1 more push here, not reverse again

(Feb 26-13:56) mike: 03.25 needs to hold to keep this going. but exiting any longs up here near 1105 not a bad idea

(Feb 26-14:15) mike: 1105 rejected a 3rd time, if 1103 holds, another pop could go to 1107-1108 then drops. of 03.00 breaks, we can drop to 1101 or so

(Feb 26-14:25) mike: this is very lethargic action. at these levels, having failed again at 1105 but still holding over 1102.50 support, a run to the 1107-1108 area a good short. need to hold 1102.50 to have tht chance

(Feb 26-14:31) mike: The ES got over the 1102 updated resistance and held and tested the 1105 high. The pullback held 1102.50 so the trends are still up. A run towards the 1107-1108 area that reverses is a good short. The 1102.50-1102.00 area needs to hold or a top will then likely be in place.

(Feb 26-14:40) mike: options are cheap, i'm buying some puts up here , this acts toppy , small position to start

(Feb 26-14:53) mike: if they can get thru 1105, still can go on up to 1107-1108.50 area. but getting late. they are ok as long as 1102.50 holds . but still i doubt at pop will stick

(Feb 26-15:01) mike: the 3rd try.. 1104.50 must hold now , it should final break thru
(Feb 26-15:04) mike: 1104.25 held.. but bid evaporate at a high so another pop is a short,
(Feb 26-15:09) mike: puts, add to them on a pop to test highs

(Feb 26-15:18) mike: if no reversal soon, 1107-1108 get attacked - 1104 must hold

(Feb 26-15:30) mike: that was the reversal. 1105 must not break or the drop could gather momentum
(Feb 26-15:33) mike: if you bought some puts, keep them over the w/e, especially if they settle under 1104
(Feb 26-15:36) mike: 1102.50-1102.00 is next support if 1104 breaks

(Feb 26-15:37) julie: Hey, Mike's birthday is tomorrow...HAPPY BIRTHDAY MIKE!!

(Feb 26-15:59) mike: a real battle zone. a close under1104 is bearish and mkt acts toppy anyhow

(Feb 26-16:01) mike: 1102.50-1102.00 tested, you can cover part / all of shorts there due to risk tolerance, i keeping it on
(Feb 26-16:02) mike: enjoy your weekend

Thursday- February 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 25-09:08) mike: 1088 tested now pre open. this will be a short on any rally intraday. 1094 then 1098-1099 are the 2 resist to clear/ hold to turn the trends

(Feb 25-09:26) mike: a big down day possible if 1094 not cleared, 83-82 next, then 79 is major

(Feb 25-09:50) mike: 88.50-89.00 now initial resist, must clear it and hold to take some pressure off.

(Feb 25-10:01) mike: 88.50-89.00 is pivotal. pressure on still

(Feb 25-10:11) mike: 3 tests of 88.50-89.00 resist. it needs to be exceeded/ held to take some pressure off

(Feb 25-10:20) mike: 4 rejections, but 87-86 area has been holding, that 87 must break to roll over again
(Feb 25-10:27) mike: a top there on nq
(Feb 25-10:36) mike: possible dbl top there 1788 nq. it must be cleared
(Feb 25-10:40) mike: a little wedge breakig
(Feb 25-10:45) mike: NQ is weaker and a better short , if a good trade on long side sets up, the ES a better long.
(Feb 25-10:51) mike: 87.50 now a key supp. its turning into a quiet sneak higher at the moment, but the mkt breaks lower if that is not held.
(Feb 25-11:01) mike: top, wedge now broken, a pop here is a short - 89.50-90 area
(Feb 25-11:05) mike: The ES popped up to test 1090.25 and reversed. That also is where the 20ema on 5 minute chart is at this time. The short side on bounces is still better odds for now.

(Feb 25-11:13) mike: 87.50 continues to catch a bid. if that finally goes, then 85 can be tested
(Feb 25-11:20) mike: still bearish under 89.50-90.00 area, if short covering part 85.75
(Feb 25-11:24) mike: 87 or better to cover part,
(Feb 25-11:26) mike: 87.50 or better... its hanging in there
(Feb 25-11:29) mike: feeble bounce - 89.50-90.00 still strong / key resist
(Feb 25-11:31) mike: should see 85.50 if 88 not cleared

(Feb 25-11:46) mike: 85.75 was reversed . 88 needs to be exceeded / held tho now to reverse a bit

(Feb 25-12:05) mike: ok, 85.75 hs been a floor, a dip can be bught for scallp long.. its now major supp now.

(Feb 25-12:38) mike: they are in buy mode over 88.00-87.50 now, up to 91.25-92.00 zone -- NQ needs to stay strong over 1784.50 or all bullish bets off

(Feb 25-12:42) mike: The ES grinded down to 1085.75 and made a little double bottom there before turning back up. The lows should be in place as long as the 1088.00-1087.50 area on the ES is held. The 1091.25-1092.00 area is next resistance.

(Feb 25-13:02) mike: 89.00 must hold, or it rolls over
(Feb 25-13:09) mike: 1091 .00-1091.50 is a cluster of resist, 3 things there and mkt is a short under that zone. a pop to 89.50 area tht stalls is a good short
(Feb 25-13:13) mike: The 1088.00-1087.50 area on the ES is holding, but unless the
ES gets over the 1091.00-1091.50 area and then holds on a pullback the market is vulnerable for more selling.

(Feb 25-13:56) mike: 97.50-98.50 is possible ,
(Feb 25-13:57) mike: 92.50 will hold if this to keep rallying
(Feb 25-14:02) mike: The ES took out the 1091.00-1091.50 area and sprinted to the 1098.50-1099.00 resistance. A pullback to the 1093.50-1092.50 area will hold if this is going to continue.

(Feb 25-14:16) mike: need to pop from here. a lower high that reverses would set up a short

(Feb 25-14:30) mike: short under 98
(Feb 25-14:39) mike: a break of that 95 low needed for move to 92-91 area where there is good support

(Feb 25-14:51) mike: stalled at 98, if that 95 level breaks, 92-91 supp must be reversed
(Feb 25-14:59) mike: The 1098 level was tested 4 times but 1095.50-1095.00 area is holding strong and now and the market only gets into trouble if 1095 is broken.

(Feb 25-15:08) mike: need to stay over 96.50 now, a reversal up here possib le , but ok unless break 96
(Feb 25-15:10) mike: if long sell out into this emotion
(Feb 25-15:12) mike: 98.00-97.50 neededs to hold or tht is likely a top

(Feb 25-15:18) mike: if 98.50 isn't held, then might see 95 tested.

(Feb 25-15:27) mike: 96 is now trend support that must hold to end the day in a bullish mode. - a break means this is a fake-out like yesterday close
(Feb 25-15:31) mike: 99.50 was held for 1 minute before turning down last time. need to hold that to keep going
(Feb 25-15:39) mike: watching 1805 area on NQ - it was a transition area, needs to stay over on a drop. a low made 20 minutes in, a high could be made near 3:45 if going to run out of gas
(Feb 25-15:42) mike: anyway, 99.50 held. still strong over that level
(Feb 25-15:44) mike: 02.50-03.00 strong resist
(Feb 25-15:48) mike: 1100.50 now must hol d
(Feb 25-15:51) mike: 02.50-03.00 a short zone.
(Feb 25-15:55) mike: 98.50-98.00 needs to hold to keep this bullish looking into the close.
(Feb 25-15:58) mike: two different mkt's today, and a big ol trading range. as long as 98 holds the mkt is in a bullish mood. have a nice rest of the day

Wednesday- February 24, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 24-09:49) mike: 1099.00-1098.50 must hold now

(Feb 24-10:07) mike: The market opened strong and the ES reached 1102.00 and then dropped fast to 1097.25. The 1096.50 area needs to hold to avoid a top for the morning at least.

(Feb 24-10:24) mike: 97.50-98.00 pivotal resist

(Feb 24-10:42) mike: 98.00-97.50 area should hold

(Feb 24-10:53) mike: The market is moving fast as the reversal from 1094.00 saw buyers jumping in and running the ES straight up to the 1103.50-1104.00 resistance so far. We're getting 2-sided action, but the dips are buying opportunities as long as the 1092 level is held today.

(Feb 24-10:57) mike: 1102.50 must hold to keep this going. stall at resist, short / stop just over the high for a scalp
(Feb 24-11:03) mike: should take off higher from 1102.50 if still strong. if broken 1100.50-1100.00 supp

(Feb 24-11:12) mike: lost mo, must stay over 1102.50 or rolling over

(Feb 24-11:20) mike: 1101.25 needs to hold. a pop here should fail now

(Feb 24-11:33) mike: The ES reversed from 1105 but the pullback was well contained so far. A bounce to a lower high that reverses is a short. On the downside, the 1100.25 is small trend support and if broken then the 1097 area is pivotal and must be quickly reversed if reached.

Due to an appointment the next update will be later this
afternoon.
(Feb 24-11:34) mike: back in 90 minutes i hope

(Feb 24-13:33) mike: just back, my apologies. it looks very good unless 1101 breaks . 1108 next resist if it can stay over 03.50

(Feb 24-13:50) mike: if a top is in, 1103.75 resist will be sold

(Feb 24-14:00) mike: The ES made a double top at 1105 but as long as the 1101.50-1101.00 area is held the dips are buying opportunities. The action is good, but must hold above that area or else a reversal will occur.

(Feb 24-14:02) mike: i'k getting small short up here.
(Feb 24-14:03) mike: nq has a wedge type pattern
(Feb 24-14:05) mike: if 1101 breaks, a push to 97.50-96.50 would be possible

(Feb 24-14:12) mike: 10360 on Dow cash needs to hold to avoid a break of this cigar type pattern. stay with shorts, that is the tipping point
(Feb 24-14:15) mike: if short take part off near 1101.75 or thereabouts
(Feb 24-14:17) mike: if then 1101 is cut thru, a bounce back should fail near 1102.50 or lower

(Feb 24-14:22) mike: 1101.75-1101.25 area good support, possible transition area from up to down.

(Feb 24-14:34) mike: 1102.75 resist
(Feb 24-14:38) mike: nq broke triangle, 1812-1814 good short on nq
(Feb 24-14:39) mike: a big ''if they bounceback there n stall

(Feb 24-14:43) mike: The ES dropped back through 1101 and now 1098.50 must hold to avoid more downside, towards 1096.50-1096.00 or even 1093-1092 key support. There is resistance at 1102.00-1102.50 now.

(Feb 24-14:57) mike: the drop held 98.50 by half point, bounce missed 1102 resist by 1 tick. if you shorted near 1104 with me, cover and see which side wins here

(Feb 24-14:59) mike: nq is at a spot where it needs to turn up quick, else drop to test its 1800.50 low

(Feb 24-15:38) mike: the mkt has a good bid over 1098.50 it looks, so buy dips over that. a bit similar to yesterday last hour so far

(Feb 24-15:57) mike: 1102.25 now pivotal supp, should not be broken

 

Tuesday- February 23, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 23-10:05) mike: 98 held, but bounces will fail

(Feb 23-10:12) mike: 1100 resist now, 1093.75-1093.00 major supp short term.

(Feb 23-10:19) mike: The lower open was bought and the bounce failed just under 1108 resistance and dropped hard to test the 1093.75-1093.00 zone. The 1100 area must be cleared to take pressure off.

(Feb 23-10:25) mike: if 94 breaks, could drop towards 88.50-88.00 next key

(Feb 23-10:42) mike: need to get over 96-97 to change trend. not an impressive bounce from a key area just yet

(Feb 23-10:49) mike: 97 rejected. must break/ hold that to avoid more downside here

(Feb 23-11:09) mike: bounce high at 98 old supp, look for a pop to short if not short already. 1098.00-1100.50 is good/pivotal resist zone now

(Feb 23-11:26) mike: an attempt to double bottom at 10300 dow cash. that must hold or we head towards 1088

(Feb 23-11:33) mike: The ES bounced to 1098.00, which was former support, and turned back down. The low at 1093.50 support held, but the action is tepid at best. The 1088 area could be seen if the Dow cash breaks under 10300 and holds. Otherwise, the 1098.00-1100.50 zone is now key resistance that must be exceeded/ held to avoid another push lower.

(Feb 23-12:00) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart also at 1097.25 now. that area is a short until broken/ held
(Feb 23-12:07) mike: NQ again leading press lower. it has to get over 1795 to get out of trouble. 88.50 possible if Dow breaks 10300 here so manage shorts for now - nq the weaker avg

(Feb 23-12:23) mike: 94.00-94.50 resist now

(Feb 23-12:36) mike: as long as the ES doesn't bounce over 1095.50 and trend down continues, the low could be made around 3:45pm.

(Feb 23-12:43) mike: dow cash holding under 10300 after ttesting/ reversing on small bounce.
(Feb 23-12:45) mike: 88.50 target very close. if that area is not held, then we could see acceleration lower...

(Feb 23-12:54) mike: first positive all day so far. they shulda pushed under 1090, but reversed. a test that reverses could give a 2 pt bounce or so,

(Feb 23-13:05) mike: 93.50-94.00 now acting as good resist to sell in to

(Feb 23-13:14) mike: if 94 not exceeded, the supp below is at 1089.00-1088.50 which looks like major supp. then 1086.75-1086.25 . big picture, 1079,50 area. i'm back in 10 minutes

(Feb 23-13:32) mike: The 1093.50 level on the ES and 10300 on the Dow cash were broken but the market turned back up and is back above those levels. The 1097.50-1098.00 area should offer good resistance if there is to be another push lower.

(Feb 23-14:01) mike: trend down day still. 88.50 is still a target here.
(Feb 23-14:02) mike: 91 hit for 3rd time, should break

(Feb 23-14:45) mike: 93.50 now supp , need to hold that

(Feb 23-14:56) mike: only breaking 94 now turns trend

(Feb 23-15:08) mike: 94 need to holds, the 97.50-98.00 good resist

(Feb 23-15:15) mike: still ok over 94. 87.50 looks key now on top

(Feb 23-15:36) mike: 97.50 area rejected. 94 is must hold

(Feb 23-15:51) mike: 92 supp, 96 resist will be sold

Monday- February 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 22-09:18) mike: 1111.00-1112.00 good resist early

(Feb 22-09:44) mike: if u sold pop to resist cover a part at 1107 or better, trail stop on rest

(Feb 22-09:51) mike: 1103.50 if 1105 breaks. nq the leader down

(Feb 22-09:58) mike: nq still dropping while popped up. nq better short today. 1105 held so a trading range w/ short side bias

(Feb 22-10:09) mike: 1107.50 on es, 1819 nq must be cleared/ held on a dip to change trend . if 1103.50 not held, 98 are next

(Feb 22-10:15) mike: The ES popped up to 1111.00 resistance and that was sold and a dropped to the 1103.50 support area so far. The ES needs to break and hold 1107.75 while the NQ gets over 1819 and holds, or the trend down goes towards the 1098.75-1098.00 zone which must be held.

(Feb 22-10:22) mike: if 1107.75 exceeded, 1105.50 needs to hold to keep bounce alive
(Feb 22-10:23) mike: a short w/ tight stop here,
(Feb 22-10:24) mike: that should be a bounce high if going lower
(Feb 22-10:29) mike: 1106.00-1105.50 supp now - it must hold or the low gets tested
(Feb 22-10:33) mike: nq still under 1819, its vulnerable if not cleared soon

(Feb 22-10:45) mike: early action was very good and easy to read. the lows might be in if 1107 can hold, but i don't see this getting over 1111-1112. . if 1107 breaks the lows get a test

(Feb 22-10:51) mike: The ES reached 1108.50 while the NQ reached 1820 and the move stalled out. A test of the lows must quickly reverse or the 1098.75-1098.00 zone is in the cards. The 1105.50 level is minor support if no new low is made.

(Feb 22-11:00) mike: 1105.50 a price to scale out of part of any re- shorts
(Feb 22-11:02) mike: 07.50 now must be exceeded

(Feb 22-11:15) mike: 1101.00 target is 1103.50 goes. upside very limited today it looks like per the tech condition
(Feb 22-11:19) mike: 1106.50-1107.25 ''resist'' in here

(Feb 22-11:29) mike: 1101.00 next, if not held then 1098.75-1098.00 could give a reversal.

(Feb 22-11:34) mike: press shorts on nq on a pop that stalls/reverses near 1815
(Feb 22-11:35) mike: the Tick at +500 or so a good fade today

(Feb 22-11:40) mike: no flush to new low yet, 1106.50-1107.25 ''resist'' in here still
(Feb 22-11:46) mike: if they get back down to the 1104.00-1103.50 zone and reverse, scalp long. just dont overstay the welcome... 1106.50-1107.25 has been hard to hold

(Feb 22-11:53) mike: hey, reward/ risk on longs right now nt good
(Feb 22-11:53) mike: so just look for shorts today

(Feb 22-12:11) mike: will be back in 10 min. 1106.50-1107.00 pivotal resist

(Feb 22-12:35) mike: the dow needs to perk back up. in 2 pt range for over an hour. a breakout needs some oomph to get going either way.

(Feb 22-12:40) mike: The ES pulled back to 1104.25 and was tested 2 more times before turning back up and breaking that 2 point range. As long as the 1104.00-1103.50 area holds, no damage done. However, a break/ hold under that level turns all the trends down. A test of the 1111-1112 area should set up a very good short if we get there and the move stalls out and/or reverses.

(Feb 22-12:42) mike: 1106.50-1106.00 should hold , else a fake-out.

(Feb 22-13:03) mike: 06.50 held, now key

(Feb 22-13:17) mike: failed breakout. if another pop its a short under 1107.50

(Feb 22-13:46) mike: gaining strength, the move may not stick, but mkt ok as long as 1106 area not broken/ held now

(Feb 22-13:58) mike: sell a bounce from in here, no stick to bounces either.

(Feb 22-14:09) mike: The ES reached 1108.50 while the NQ reached 1819 and the move stalled out. Those must be exceeded and held to keep from a late day drop.

(Feb 22-14:14) mike: if 1106 breaks, look for a pop up - then a turn down from under 1108.50 kinda like this

(Feb 22-14:28) mike: now as long as the next pullback holds 1106.50-1106.00 area the mkt is in buy the dip mode. if that doesn't hold, then the move is reversed as the pattern breaks.

(Feb 22-14:46) mike: 1107.75 now supp that should hold
(Feb 22-14:49) mike: if they dont break doiwn and can pop up towards 1111-12 beware reversal
(Feb 22-15:02) mike: a drop thru 1107.75 means a break, a bounce thereafter a short

(Feb 22-15:21) mike: 1108.50 good supp , key support now , if 1111-1112 not reversed we can see 1115

(Feb 22-15:28) mike: wedge like pattern forming, the NQ is toppy, i'm small short that up here for a decent drop.
(Feb 22-15:30) mike: 1108.50-1108.00 the key supp last 30 minute now

(Feb 22-15:39) mike: 2 point dips were thhe biggest , so if 1108 isn't held thats a change of symmetry tooo

(Feb 22-15:43) mike: watch 1812 on NQ for important supp, 1106.50-1106
(Feb 22-15:43) mike: .on es
(Feb 22-15:47) mike: bearish action to end the day, if short up there, might keep a part for another drop tomorrow
(Feb 22-15:48) mike: 1108.50-1109.00 would need to be cleared to avoid more down.

(Feb 22-15:52) mike: a bearish close under 1106.00. enjoy the rest of your day

Friday- February 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 19-09:22) mike: the ES reached the 93.75-93.00 area to cover 1/2 of shorts. 1098 pivotal supp again , then 92.50 is

(Feb 19-09:37) mike: 1100.00-1099.50 needs to break

(Feb 19-09:52) mike: 1104 good resist, must be cleared. its a top it looks

(Feb 19-10:01) mike: The ES opened lower then turned up from the 1100.00-1099.50 support and bounced to 1104.25 new resistance. That was sold and the market is under pressure again. The 1098 level must hold or 1093.50-1093.00 would be next.

(Feb 19-10:07) mike: 93 should be seen today,
(Feb 19-10:07) mike: a bounce from just over 98 here should fail
(Feb 19-10:08) mike: 1102.50-1103.00 resist

(Feb 19-10:33) mike: The 1098.25-1097.75 zone is key / pivotal support and the pullback held at 1098.75. The bounce reached 1104.50 so far and turned, so it will take a break/ hold over 1104 or under 1098 to get a breakout of that range. Short the top side and buy the bottom side until broken.

(Feb 19-10:37) mike: need to hold 1102 to get 1 more push higher, if broken we head down

(Feb 19-10:51) mike: 1104 now must hld to keep upside
(Feb 19-10:56) mike: shorting area w/ stop just over the 1105.50 high
(Feb 19-11:04) mike: price patern bearish if 02.50 is broken. would make a bounce a better short.

(Feb 19-11:19) mike: 06.00-05.50 supp, then 1103.50 is major today now

(Feb 19-11:28) mike: 1106.50-1106.00 now must hold on a dip

(Feb 19-11:39) mike: if 1106 holds, the mkt is still ok on the upside. if broken, then a bounce should fail under the high.. or just continue going lower

(Feb 19-11:46) mike: The ES took out 1104 and then held at 1103.50 on a dip before running up again. The 1110.50-1112.00 could be tested, and it's a good resistance area so a reversal there is possible. A dip must hold 1106.25-1105.50 to avoid rolling over.


(Feb 19-12:15) mike: 1110.50-1112.00 reversed, but need push thru 1108.50 here, thats supp now, then 1107 now a key supp

(Feb 19-12:27) mike: 1114.84-1115.49 onSP500 cash might be a magnet. a transition area there

(Feb 19-12:35) mike: if 09.00-08.50 is not defended, first sign of decent pullback. grinding out higher highs / lows and must continue that pace or a sharp pullback
(Feb 19-12:36) mike: 1110.50-1112.00 also must be exceeded/ held
(Feb 19-12:38) mike: 1107 now a key supp , 09.00 should break

(Feb 19-12:45) mike: 1109.00 holds... 1110.50-1112.00 is a top it looks like since resist was rejected, if tested and reversed its a good short entry w/ stop over the resist zone. 1109.00 is key to the rally now here

(Feb 19-12:53) mike: if 1107 area tested and reverses again, scalp a long

(Feb 19-13:06) mike: The ES reached the 1110.50-1112.00 and backed off, but as long as a drop holds around the 1107-1106 area the upside should continue. If that area is not defended, then that 1111.00 level will be a short term top.

(Feb 19-13:13) mike: lots coming together at 1109.00-1108.50.. mkt okay unless broken. even then, a dip should hold yesterday high area . if not, then things could change

(Feb 19-13:24) mike: should see 07.00-06.50. then MUST reverse

(Feb 19-13:34) mike: i have doubt a bounce can stick. NQ the leader , 1110.50-1112.00 must be cleared to end well

(Feb 19-13:51) mike: something running this up just to sell em. 09.50 mustt be held, on bounce, supp 07-06 MUST hold
(Feb 19-13:56) mike: The ES dropped to 1107.00 so far, but must break/ hold over 1109.50 now to avoid futher downside.

(Feb 19-14:00) mike: if 1105.50 is not held, then a big reversal could occur and fall towards 1102 area, or back towards 1098
(Feb 19-14:04) mike: 1107 and dow 10400 and 1823 on NQ all are key/ pivotal supports

(Feb 19-14:11) mike: 1108 and 1825 need to be cleared, if this area breaks, it could be a big reversal day. must bounce over 1108 here

(Feb 19-14:22) mike: 1108 was taken out, so a pullback should hold that 1106.50 -- otherwise, this could get hit with selling down to 1103.50 area

(Feb 19-14:43) mike: putrid bounce off a supp, need to motor over 1109.50 to avoid a sinking into close
(Feb 19-14:46) mike: i will be cutting out around 3pm. its a toss up as to which way, feels heavy but options expiry too. need to get over 09.50 with gusto, or down she goes

(Feb 19-15:00) mike: ok, its a short under 1109. sell em under that

(Feb 19-15:15) mike: 1103.50 a target
(Feb 19-15:15) mike: 1107 good resist to end the day

(Feb 19-15:21) mike: NQ LEADING AND IT NEEDS TO GET OVER 1821 JUST TO TAKE SOME PRESSURE OFF
(Feb 19-15:21) mike: sorry re caps

(Feb 19-15:32) mike: 30 minute mark , option expiry. needs to get thru 1107/ hold it there.
(Feb 19-15:32) mike: have a good w/e

Thursday- February 18, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 18-09:12) mike: if you bought puts yesterday, cover part on the open. 1093.75-1093.00 must hold for the bulls

(Feb 18-09:59) mike: 98.50 needs to holds now -more data in 1 min

(Feb 18-10:09) mike: 98.50 was barely broken and turned right back up. if 98 breaks, then they roll over.

(Feb 18-10:19) mike: top just under a big resist, sell bounces now

(Feb 18-10:26) mike: 97 es , 10320 dow cash must hold to get a pop

(Feb 18-10:33) mike: the 1093.75-1093.00 zone held pre open and is good supp now. upside limited , 99.50 resist now

(Feb 18-10:42) mike: 99.00-99.50 looks like the make or break area
(Feb 18-10:45) mike: a short w / tight stop
(Feb 18-10:45) mike: need 98 to break soon
(Feb 18-10:48) mike: 99.50 shouldnt be exceeded
(Feb 18-10:49) mike: scratched
(Feb 18-10:49) mike: NQ is pretty strong, a second look now
(Feb 18-10:51) mike: if 98 breaks, then this heads south. in a struggle right now
(Feb 18-11:02) mike: 99 es and 1814 nq supp
(Feb 18-11:03) mike: if broken, trends change.

(Feb 18-11:18) mike: 99 is holding, but 1100.50 is a lid. short under tht 1100.50

(Feb 18-11:30) mike: The ES turned up from 1096.25 and has refused to crack and break down. The 1098.50 area needs to hold to avoid that break down. If that is taken out, the 1096 area would need to hold to avoid a drop to 1093.75-1093.00 key support. Now if 1102.50-1104.00 is reached instead, the market should reverse. If not, then a pop to the 1110.50-1112.00 area is possible.

(Feb 18-11:48) mike: this is holding well. a test of 98 a buy as soon as reversal starts. for now. 1100.50 needs to be rejected

(Feb 18-12:17) mike: if u bought 98, scalp out
(Feb 18-12:17) mike: poor action off 1100
(Feb 18-12:18) mike: they shoulda bounced like a rubber ball.... this isn't so strong

(Feb 18-12:31) mike: the key to holding or dropping is 1812.50 on NQ. that needs to hold, or the leaders will be breaking its range. 1816-17 key resist

(Feb 18-12:39) mike: 98 tested again but just short bounces under 1100-1102

(Feb 18-12:49) mike: The ES held 1098 twice after several attempts to get over 1100.50 and is in a tight range. The market is overbought and losing momentum after rejecting 1102.00 early. It will take a break/ hold over 1100 on the ES to avoid a sell-off.

(Feb 18-13:16) mike: it looks like they will be ok as long as 98.75 holds

(Feb 18-13:38) mike: 1100.50 rejection again. need to stay over 98.75-98.00 still to avoid break down

(Feb 18-13:52) mike: going for 1102.50-1104.00 - possibly on this run. if long, sell into that emotion. if they reverse there, or a bit under, then its a short with a stop just over the 1104 top of the range.

(Feb 18-14:00) mike: The ES held 1098 very well and broke/held 1100 so far. As long as 1100 holds the move will continue but a reversal from up 1102.50-1104.00 is likely.

(Feb 18-14:10) mike: a swing short from up here, 1 more push that reverses is ideal. or a break of 1100

(Feb 18-14:29) mike: The 1100 level was held and we got a pop to 1104.50 so far. This move has muscle, so only a break of 1102-1100 will turn the trends today.
(Feb 18-14:31) mike: if no bounce here, dn we go

(Feb 18-14:41) mike: that could be it if 1104.00-1103.50 area is not held

(Feb 18-14:52) mike: 1106.25 is the 62% fib retrace from 1147 high to 1040.25 swing low. then 1110.50-1112.00

(Feb 18-15:06) mike: a bounce off 04 should fail to make higher high
(Feb 18-15:08) mike: this is the start of a good sized drop, swing trade for me on part

(Feb 18-15:15) mike: need a break thru 1104 to get hit w/ selling 1101.50 would be minor supp

(Feb 18-15:31) mike: 30 minutes left, and 1104 still holding. if broken, a slide to 1100 needs to reverses

(Feb 18-15:54) mike: a stop on shorts will be just over 1110 for now . have a good rest of the day
(Feb 18-15:59) mike: a close under 1104 would be bearish pattern

Wednesday- February 17, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 17-09:25) mike: sell dn to 94

(Feb 17-10:09) mike: The gap up open was reversed from the 1097.75-1098.50 zone on the ES and dropped 3.50 points to 1095.25, and after 2 more tries to get through resistance failed, a drop held just over the 1094.00 high from yesterday. The 2-sided action should continue, but the market is vulnerable unless 1098.50 is broken and held.

(Feb 17-10:11) mike: if 98 is taken out, 1102.50-1104.00 is possible for a top

(Feb 17-10:17) mike: 96.50 needs to hold

(Feb 17-10:23) mike: 94.00 is the key support that needs to hold now, the drops are in an uptrend as long as 94 holds. 96.50 is minor supp, if it goes its a red flag
(Feb 17-10:25) mike: mkt very overbought, dur for 2 way trading. i like the short side on bounces w/ a tight stop
(Feb 17-10:28) mike: now 96.50 even more important now,
(Feb 17-10:30) mike: if 98.50 exceeded, 1102.50-1104.00 is reversal territory.
(Feb 17-10:33) mike: at resist a long time... should get going. 96.50 key supp now

(Feb 17-10:40) mike: a pop to test / break the high that reverses is a short, toppy acting

(Feb 17-10:51) mike: that could be a top, if 94.50-94.00 is not defended . a ''prairie dog'' pop over 98.50
(Feb 17-10:52) mike: so 98.50 still a key resist

(Feb 17-10:59) mike: The ES took out 1098.50 but then quickly reversed. Also, the Vix reversed a bit this morning. We are getting 2-sided action so far, but if the 1094.50-1094.00 area is not held then odds of a short term top go up.
(Feb 17-11:02) mike: if a bounce comes from 94 , resist then 97.00-97.50

(Feb 17-11:29) mike: could be a bounce, but character changed. the mkt is a short under 97 and 1805 NQ

(Feb 17-11:35) mike: 92.50-92.00 must reverses or else 1088.50 is a strong support that must be held.
(Feb 17-11:35) mike: 9450-95.50 resist 1
(Feb 17-11:41) mike: the big hurdles now are at 1097 ES, 1805 NQ, 10300 Dow cash. the trends are down unless those all are exceeded / held
(Feb 17-11:42) mike: 94.50 first resist tho still

(Feb 17-12:09) mike: The ES held just over the 1092 support and bounced back to 1097.00 resistance on the ES and 10300 on the Dow cash. Those
areas along with 1804-1805 on the NQ need to be cleared and not reversed to avoid another downdraft before the Fed Minutes at 2pm.

(Feb 17-12:32) mike: 95.50 now needs to hold or trends break. also, the low coincided w/ the 60ema on 5 min chart, so 73-72 needs to hold - otherwise things are changing more

(Feb 17-12:42) mike: thats 93-92 , not 73-72

(Feb 17-12:53) mike: mkt too overbought to hold gains it appears. will need to close over 98 to not look like a top. that, or rally back from a decent drop again. a reversal up from 92 area could happen, 88.50 a key support if a decent drop

(Feb 17-13:09) mike: if this can stay over 96.50, we can still get a test of 99.50, then 1102.50-1104.00 zone would be next resist. 95 is good supp that must hold now

(Feb 17-13:28) mike: a narrow range day while overbought normally sign of change of trend soon. puts in order now. if somehow they do pop to 1102.50-1104.00, and its rejected, the odds then are real good.

(Feb 17-13:34) mike: The ES has been unable to stay over 1098 for more than a minute or so, and this is acting toppy. Look to short a bounce up here, IF they somehow pop to the 1102.50-1104.00 area and it's rejected, then that would be the perfect setup but a high could already be in place.

(Feb 17-13:54) mike: Fed minutes in 7 minutes. 98 needs to be held on top, 95 held on bottom to break-out

(Feb 17-14:03) mike: top in, for now unless 68 held - bounces are shorts

(Feb 17-14:13) mike: something tried kicking in gear to upside near 95.50. that should hold if getting another pop
(Feb 17-14:17) mike: 95.50 held, but still acting like a top, 98 not exceeded/held

(Feb 17-14:35) mike: that 97.50 bounce high should be it, this move should reverse under 68. a test of 93-92 must quikly reverse

(Feb 17-14:47) mike: After the Fed Minutes the ES popped to 1097.50 and reversed.The market has been in a small range and unless the 1098 level is exceeded and not quickly reversed, the bounces should continue to fail. If there is a test of 1093-1092 it would need to be quickly reversed to avoid trouble this afternoon.

(Feb 17-15:11) mike: reward / risk fover short w/ logical stop - 96.50 need hold

(Feb 17-15:18) mike: could go for 1102.50-1104.00 if 98 exceeded/ not reversed fast. a break of 96.50 needed to turn down

(Feb 17-15:23) mike: not held again. 96.50 must

(Feb 17-15:47) mike: be short something near 98 or so, a decent drop likely w/i next 7 trading hours

(Feb 17-16:02) mike: have a great rest of the day. overnight, 1102.50-1104.00 zone a sell. 1096.50-1096.00 a buy

Tuesday- February 16, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 16-09:09) mike: key supp early at 1080-1079
(Feb 16-09:15) mike: 1085.50-1086.25 a short early/ tight stop

(Feb 16-09:37) mike: Just after 9am the ES reached and reversed from the 1085.50-1086.25 zone and the NQ reversed its 1792.25-1793.50 zone. Those must be cleared/ held to keep the upside from reversing.The 1080-1079 area on the ES is a key support now.

(Feb 16-09:50) mike: 82 resist
(Feb 16-09:53) mike: 79.50 filled gap on daily chart, must hold now

(Feb 16-10:09) mike: 123 top on Dow cash, highs should be in
(Feb 16-10:13) mike: no damage done as long as 79.50 holds now. choppy scalp mkt right now

(Feb 16-10:19) mike: The ES dropped to 1079.50 to fill the gap and then held that level to make a double bottom. As long as that level holds, no damage is done and the pullbacks are buying opportunities. Just beware that the 1086.00-1086.50 area should be a key resistance area to push through and not quickly reverse.

(Feb 16-10:40) mike: if long, tighten stops. 84.50 needs to hold to keep this going

(Feb 16-10:51) mike: pop over 86.50 not held . 83 needs t hold on dip
(Feb 16-10:57) mike: a bounce here should not take out the highs, sell into this

(Feb 16-11:03) mike: 85 shouldn't be exceeded if rolling over,

(Feb 16-11:18) mike: The ES popped to 1087.00, staying over 1086.50 for about 2 seconds, and reversed to pullback to 1083.25 so far which is now support. The 1083 level will need to hold to avoid a reversal of the uptrends.

(Feb 16-11:32) mike: mkt acting well since dbl bottom.. 83 now a good support that needs to be defended. 20ema on 5 min chart. 88 resist, then 1090.50-1091.25

(Feb 16-11:42) mike: stay with long side, if 88 is exceeded we can go for 90-91
(Feb 16-11:43) mike: 86 should hold to keep trend up in gear

(Feb 16-11:56) mike: need to hold 87.50 area here, else 85 area possible

(Feb 16-12:20) mike: the pattern is turning into rising wedge . if 87 is not held, it could start a break dn

(Feb 16-13:01) mike: that needs to be a low
(Feb 16-13:04) mike: 1086.75 also = 20ema on 5 min chart... NQ getting toppy just under 1800. both need to turn back up here soon, else dive lower

(Feb 16-13:17) mike: no roll over. not real eager to be buying up here, but the mkt is ok over 1086,50-1086.00 prior resist zone

(Feb 16-13:23) mike: The market is holding together very well so far, but the upside has stalled out a bit. As long as the 1086.50-1086.00 old resistance now support is held the market will be in good shape and the 1090.50-1091.25 area could be seen. If that support is broken, then 1083 area is key support.

(Feb 16-13:37) mike: another pop to 89 is a scalp short. 86 needs to hold or 83 area gets a test

(Feb 16-13:57) mike: ES is ok unless 86 breaks. 88.50 reached, but mkt still has a good bid at this momemt

(Feb 16-14:14) mike: watch 85 area on 1 more drop, that should hold if just a pullback. all the dips bought so far so 85 should hold or 83 key area can be tested

(Feb 16-14:31) mike: now 87 is key, and 10210 on Dow cash. bids dried up at 89, must be cleared to get to 91.50

(Feb 16-14:51) mike: definitely a choppy scalpers mkt since first test of 89 before noon. 87 is the comfort level for longs. needs to hold to leave the door open for a high with 20 minutes left in stock trading

(Feb 16-14:57) mike: should see 1090.50-1091.25 area tested
(Feb 16-14:58) mike: 87 still the floor tht should / must hold on a drop

(Feb 16-15:00) mike: 1090.50-1091.25 looks like a scalp short if reached soon
(Feb 16-15:03) mike: NQ topped at 1799.0 early, at 1798.75-1800.50 resist. it should still be important resist there today

(Feb 16-15:27) mike: 1090.50-1091.25 reached, 89 now must hold, a high at 3:35-3:40 timeframe possible

(Feb 16-15:32) mike: The 1090.50-1091.25 zone was exceeded as the trend up continues. The 1089 level now must hold. A high in the 3:35-3:40 timeframe is possible, or near 1093.50-1094.25.

(Feb 16-15:43) mike: 94 a short, mkt now very overbought. a drop to 90-88.50 tomorrow is likely
(Feb 16-15:47) mike: 92.50 supp, pivotal area now
(Feb 16-15:51) mike: parabolic move too,
(Feb 16-15:52) mike: 92.50 to cover part
(Feb 16-15:54) mike: 92.50 should be pivotal , in the morning too if not broken
(Feb 16-15:55) mike: have a good rest of the day

Friday- February 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 12-09:14) mike: back to 72-73 resist

(Feb 12-09:24) mike: 67.50 resist
(Feb 12-09:28) mike: 1068.50-1068.00 old supp is resist 1 now

(Feb 12-09:44) mike: 1061.50-1060.50 reversed, but 63.50-64.00 resist

(Feb 12-10:05) mike: 65.50-56.00 needs to be cleared/ hold to get out of trouble

(Feb 12-10:14) mike: 63.50 needs to hold to keep bounce from failing

(Feb 12-10:22) mike: 63.50 held but high i n
(Feb 12-10:23) mike: 68.00-68.50 good resist in case they dont break dn here

(Feb 12-10:27) mike: The big down open quickly reversed the 1060.50 support and must stay over 1063.50 now to avoid trouble. Resistance at 1068.00-1068.50 should be key this morning.

(Feb 12-10:34) mike: if long get out , cover at least part, 63.50 the key supp now but a failure under 68
(Feb 12-10:36) mike: weak if cant clear 66.50 here

(Feb 12-10:43) mike: broke a wedge pattern, sell 65-66 area if reached and stall/ reverse

(Feb 12-10:53) mike: must reverse lower now real fast - or nullified
(Feb 12-10:54) mike: 65.50 shouldn't be exceeded. a scalpers mkt this morn

(Feb 12-11:00) mike: The ES popped up to 1067.25 and reversed, and the drop to 1062.25 held and reversed a bit. Now the 1066 level needs to be cleared to avoid a test of the low.

(Feb 12-11:05) mike: 62.50 turning into good supp
(Feb 12-11:05) mike: 10,000 dow cash

(Feb 12-11:09) mike: bounces should still fail, but no further damage done as long as 62.50 holds. if the lows are broken, the charts will break a bottom on 13 min chart, a real bearish pattern then if not reversed fast

(Feb 12-11:15) mike: this could carry on towards 68
(Feb 12-11:18) mike: must stay over 65 and go soon if going to reach 68, else another failure
(Feb 12-11:21) mike: 68.00-68.50 is a good cluster of resist, key when reached

(Feb 12-11:29) mike: After turning up, the ES stayed over 1065.00 and has pushed higher to just under the 1068.00-1068.50 zone so far. Still, as long as a pullback holds 1065 on the ES the trends area up. If 1068 is taken out, the 1071.50-1072.50 area is key again. If 1065 breaks, then the 1062 area is key support now.

(Feb 12-11:34) mike: good rejection, 65 met but backing off long side
(Feb 12-11:36) mike: a bounce from here to 67-ish that then stalls/ reverses sets up good reward/ risk short

(Feb 12-11:42) mike: a better looking channel/ wedge pattern. the 1064.50 level would need to break

(Feb 12-11:58) mike: stuck between s and r but NQ going strong right now, dips are buys
(Feb 12-11:59) mike: 65 is the bottom of the channel, needs to hold like last 2 dips

(Feb 12-12:10) mike: one more pop towards 71.0-72.50 a possible reversal area
(Feb 12-12:10) mike: 68.50-68.00 needs to hold now

(Feb 12-12:21) mike: 75.50-76.00 resist

(Feb 12-12:29) mike: 72.50 needs to hold or top in

(Feb 12-12:47) mike: trend up since that pullback low at 65. ok over 71.50, but a pop that tests/ rejects 75.50-76.00 area is a short. the 69.50-68.50 area strong supp

(Feb 12-12:58) mike: 68.50 area must be defended.

(Feb 12-13:10) mike: The breakout over 1068 sent shorts scampering for cover and ran up to 1075.00 before reversing. This pullback needs to hold the 1068.50-1068.00 area, otherwise the choppy trend up move could reverse and end the week on a down note.

(Feb 12-13:12) mike: if going higher, we need a reversal here above 70

(Feb 12-13:20) mike: 71.50-72.00 shouldn't be seen, could sell off to lower lows if 65 not held

(Feb 12-13:28) mike: 68.50 must be cleared, or trend down towards the lows. an ''inside day'' so far w/ 2-side action ss

(Feb 12-13:33) mike: 65 trying to hold, still tho 68 on ES and 1772 NQ both need to be exceeded / held
(Feb 12-13:36) mike: When 1071.50 was broken the ES dropped fast to the 1065 support area. That held, but 1068 must be cleared/ held or its still vulnerable.

(Feb 12-14:10) mike: 67.75 held after taking out 68 and is good supp that should hold, a test of 72 is a short in this 2 sided stuff
(Feb 12-14:14) mike: 71 should hold on dip

(Feb 12-14:22) mike: 77-78 should be tested/ exceeded - else inside day. 72.00 must hold now, or no go

(Feb 12-14:38) mike: 72.50-72.00 supp, again.

(Feb 12-14:55) mike: covering the buy off 72
(Feb 12-14:56) mike: supp at 72 then 68
(Feb 12-15:02) mike: horrible price patterns, buyers beware
(Feb 12-15:04) mike: if 68 is broken / held then 65 is key to hold, else back towards 60 or lower

(Feb 12-15:14) mike: and now 72 is important resist

(Feb 12-15:30) mike: not good action,
(Feb 12-15:31) mike: a break of 68 could put press on

(Feb 12-15:47) mike: 68 is a rock. surely most see it now as key. its 1771.50 on NQ. breaking those and not quickly reversing is bad news. unless tht occurs, no real damage done. enjoy a great long weekend .

Thursday- February 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 11-09:41) mike: must clear 65 and stick to reverse

(Feb 11-09:50) mike: 6150-62.00 resist

(Feb 11-10:09) mike: still must must clear 65 and stick to reverse

(Feb 11-10:22) mike: 62.50 needs to hold or thats a top for awhile

(Feb 11-10:28) mike: The early weakness was reversed 15 minutes into trading and the ES stayed over yesterday's low so that should be a good low for the morning anyhow. A test of the 1068.00-1068.50 area will be reversed if the market remains range bound.

(Feb 11-10:32) mike: that was a little 123 top 66 resist shouldn't be exceeded now

(Feb 11-10:45) mike: sell a pop that stalls under 66 resist.
(Feb 11-10:48) mike: scalp out if short, 62 is god supp
(Feb 11-10:50) mike: 2 sided scalp mkt, NQ doing well so far and it must stay strong , hold 1744-43
(Feb 11-10:52) mike: Bounces under 66 are sill scalp short, i second guessed myself

(Feb 11-11:06) mike: a 2 sided day, buy the drops , sell the pops . 65-66 resist, 61-60 on bottom

(Feb 11-11:17) mike: The ES reversed down from 1067.00, but the choppy drop to 1060.50 was also quickly reversed. For now it is a 2-sided day so buy the pullbacks to the 1061-1060 area and then beware of a reversal around 1068.00-1068.50 or lower. The NQ is leading and should be in good shape over the 1743-1741 area.

(Feb 11-11:28) mike: should pull back to 67.00-66.50 area
(Feb 11-11:29) mike: 68 is trend supp tht must hold
(Feb 11-11:31) mike: can't stay over 70

(Feb 11-11:38) mike: stalling ut, 68 needs to hld
(Feb 11-11:40) mike: 1760 NQ NEEDS TO HOLD ALSO. sorry re caps.
(Feb 11-11:41) mike: cant hold 70 is bothersome long here, but ok over 68

(Feb 11-11:48) mike: The ES took out 1067 on the way to the 1072.75 so far. The 1077.00-1078.00 is the next good resistance, and then 1082 if this is really strong. Pullback should hold 1068 to stay in bullish mode, otherwise we have a reversal again.

(Feb 11-11:50) mike: 1 min chart w/ 9 and 18 ema, a good example of trend guide in a momentum move
(Feb 11-11:51) mike: 72.50 needs to hold here now

(Feb 11-12:00) mike: 73 needs to hold , or look for 70.50 area

(Feb 11-12:11) mike: 73 now like 68 was earlier. its a key spot

(Feb 11-12:54) mike: all week gains been reversed, but not today if 72.50-71.50 holds

(Feb 11-13:02) mike: if 72.50 breaks, sell the next bounce

(Feb 11-13:15) mike: The ES popped to 1075.50 and has flattened out. Lately the rallies have reversed, but not today unless the 1072.50-1071.50 area is broken. If it is, then the 1068.50-1068.00 area could be tested and that would be key support to hold.

(Feb 11-13:29) mike: 77-78 a good resist. , dip should hold 75 area. 72 now very key supp

(Feb 11-13:41) mike: nice rejection at 77-78, now need to avoid break of 75
(Feb 11-13:43) mike: a 123 type of top possible now

(Feb 11-13:50) mike: The ES reversed from the 1077-1078 resistance zone. That could be as far as this goes today. If the 1072 level is broken, then that will be a top and any bounce is then a shorting opportunity.

(Feb 11-14:23) mike: this is bullish now unless 77-78 rejected again, but right now this mkt will be ok unless 73.50 is touched and not quickly reversed.

(Feb 11-14:26) mike: stay over 74.5 now to keep trend up move intact, or reverse back up fast if broken . if not, reversal can occur

(Feb 11-14:34) mike: 78 rejected again, watch NQ, it needs to stay over 1775-74 or it would then start to roll over from small parabolic move.
(Feb 11-14:39) mike: short under the 78 level, stop just over
(Feb 11-14:42) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart on a trend day usually good supp / guide . it breaks at 75.25

(Feb 11-14:49) mike: The 1078 level was rejected a second time and the ES pulled back to the 20ema on the 5 minute chart at 1075.25 currently. That has been a trend guide, so grind higher should continue unless that is broken.

(Feb 11-14:51) mike: shorting under 78 , nq weakening
(Feb 11-14:53) mike: nq weak under 1777, has supp 74-72.50
(Feb 11-14:54) mike: 77 sholdn't be seen now

(Feb 11-15:02) mike: the washout had no follow thru yet. if a drop to 73.00-72.50, it *should* reverse, a scalp long if reached and reversed

(Feb 11-15:29) mike: the Dow chart is toppy too , if they reverse 77-78 again, bad news
(Feb 11-15:31) mike: NQ ugly pattern, all bounces short there under 1777

(Feb 11-15:40) mike: if u sold the bouncescalp out of 2/3 dn here
(Feb 11-15:44) mike: trading range here for 2+hours, the low end 73.75-74.25, top 77-78
(Feb 11-15:48) mike: 73.00-72.50 key, avoid longs
(Feb 11-15:51) mike: 75.50 should be it if closing poor

 Wednesday- February 10, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 10-10:00) mike: just sell bounces under 68

(Feb 10-10:10) mike: 62.50-63.00 resist, then 65 is key. 58 should break

(Feb 10-10:15) mike: take some profit on shorts at 57.75. resist 62-63
(Feb 10-10:17) mike: 64.50-65.00 strong resist now
(Feb 10-10:18) mike: 1053.00-1052.50 next key supp

(Feb 10-10:26) mike: NQ weak and leading ES
(Feb 10-10:29) mike: 1053.00-1052.50 must be reversed with gusto, or else trend down.

(Feb 10-10:35) mike: The lower open was bought and the ES popped up 5+ points and promptly rolled over. The ES would need to get over 1061 and hold in order to avoid a trend down day. The 1053.00-1052.50 needs to hold, otherwise it could be an ugly day.

(Feb 10-10:48) mike: 64.00-64.50 is a cluster of 4 resist methods and should be pivotal . the mkt is bearish unless that is cleared / held for now

(Feb 10-10:56) mike: must get over 61 and hold, not reject it. dow 10,000 kind of pivotal too

(Feb 10-11:18) mike: kind of a wedge pattern, 60.50 needs to hold
(Feb 10-11:22) mike: 61 should be bounce high here
(Feb 10-11:23) mike: if pattern playing out right
(Feb 10-11:25) mike: nullified the pattern. ES is in rally mode over 61
(Feb 10-11:29) mike: 64.50 area should be strong / pivotal resist
(Feb 10-11:34) mike: that could be it for the bounce, 65 now key
(Feb 10-11:36) mike: a pullback should hold 62-61 area .

(Feb 10-11:47) mike: The ES made it to 1065.00 which is pivotal resistance and backed off. A low may be in place, but the 1062.00-1061.50 area needs to hold to avoid another failed rally.

(Feb 10-12:25) mike: strong rebound, 61 supp key now but shouldn't be seen

(Feb 10-12:28) mike: The ES dropped to 1061.25 support and reversed back up and the 1065.00 key area and finally broke out. The 1065.00-1064.50 area needs to hold now, but still no harm done unless 1061 is not held.

(Feb 10-12:35) mike: 66.60-66.00 must hold now
(Feb 10-12:39) mike: 66 held but bounce here should fail
(Feb 10-12:41) mike: 64.50 looks to be next supp on a break down here

(Feb 10-12:50) mike: mkt not able to hold lately, here again it looks
(Feb 10-12:52) mike: need to stay over 66 still, to avoid the roll over

(Feb 10-13:04) mike: 66 has held, but no goo bounce yet. careful long up here for sure

(Feb 10-13:12) mike: kind of a bigger wedge type pattern, but it only breaks if 66 isn't held so buy dip over 66

(Feb 10-13:17) mike: tricky, a test of 67 tht reverses, scalp long but could unwind if 66 breaks

(Feb 10-13:28) mike: The ES held 1066.00 and is going for the 1071.50-1072.50 zone which should be reversed or else 1077 is a magnet.

(Feb 10-13:33) mike: 71.50 rejected, that area is a short with a stop just over the top of zone. 69.00-68.50 s1, 67.50 s2

(Feb 10-13:42) mike: a test is a good short
(Feb 10-13:43) mike: test of the high, a lower high that reverses is great short set up

(Feb 10-13:49) mike: The ES reached the 1071.50-1072.50 zone and it was rejected.That would need to be broken and held on a pullback to avoid a late day selloff. The 1066 area is support that must hold to avoid a break down.

(Feb 10-13:53) mike: 1068 is now a break down level. if this big wedge is valid, then 1066-65 is the pivotal area that has to hold to avoid a big reversal .
(Feb 10-13:57) mike: feb puts pretty cheap. they paid well from up near 72 yesterday
(Feb 10-14:00) mike: a bounce to 70.50 that stalls/ reverses is a short.

(Feb 10-14:09) mike: 70.50 shouldn't be exceeded now, or pattern nullified and 71.50 gets another try
(Feb 10-14:11) mike: scale out, part 1 68.00 or better
(Feb 10-14:13) mike: stop breakeven or 69.50 at worst, 66.50 tgt 2

(Feb 10-14:16) mike: they missed 70.50 by 1 tik, if not short wait or a bounce or possible long of 66.50-66.00 reverses
(Feb 10-14:20) mike: mkt so far did well, normally that starts a decent drop. 69.50 not exceeded yet, but its be flat now and scalp or wait for a decent setup

(Feb 10-14:28) mike: the drops met with buying, then sold just as fast, not going to nose dive - mkt ok unless 66.50-66.00 breaks
(Feb 10-14:32) mike: 69.50 now a key rest
(Feb 10-14:34) mike: 66.50 tested, but still sell a pop under 69.50

(Feb 10-14:43) mike: The 1066 area was tested, but the market is still vulnerable given the rejection of the 1071.50-1072.50 zone. A bounce that fails around the 1069 area and then reverses sets up a good short with a tight stop.

(Feb 10-14:49) mike: make or break here 65.50-65.00 -- 1749-47 NQ. ES needs to get over 67 n stick

(Feb 10-15:24) mike: yesterday open was 66.50, settled at 66.25, open this morning at 65.75...... looks like a key spot for today's close, a pivotal zone

(Feb 10-15:36) mike: 66.00-66.50 now key resist, and a short

(Feb 10-15:52) mike: resist / pretty key it looks, rejected . a close under 66 a bearish sign

(Feb 10-15:57) mike: this settlement will be interesting. have a great rest of the day.

Tuesday - February 9, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 09-09:50) mike: 1068.00-1068.50 reversed on open, 62.50 area is support

(Feb 09-09:59) mike: sell pops under 67
(Feb 09-10:04) mike: 63.00-62.50 supp, needs to hold .

(Feb 09-10:13) mike: The ES opened up 10+ points, reversed from the 1068.00-1068.50 zone and dropped to 1063.25 before bouncing. The market will be in uptrends unless the 1063.00-1062.00 area is broken and not quickly reversed. If the 1068.50 area is cleared and held then the 1073.50-1074.00 zone would be a key area for a possible reversal.

(Feb 09-10:46) mike: they topped
(Feb 09-10:50) mike: if 63.00-62.50 can not hold, its back to poor action and bounces are shorts
(Feb 09-10:52) mike: 66.00 resist now

(Feb 09-11:00) mike: NQ leading this, 65.50-66.00 good resist now
(Feb 09-11:07) mike: 56 should be tested
(Feb 09-11:08) mike: 62.50-63.00 now key resist

(Feb 09-11:22) mike: The ES popped up to 1069.75 and quickly reversed, then when 1066 was broken the downside picked up steam and fell to 1058.00 so far. That 1062.50-1063.00 area is pivotal and the pressure will be on the downside unless its cleared and held.

(Feb 09-11:35) mike: obviously good supp 58 . buy a pullback towardds 62 that reverses back up. a 2 sided day, thus quick trades necessary

(Feb 09-11:44) mike: 65 should hold, else reversal again.

(Feb 09-12:06) mike: A double bottom at 1058 was met with strong buying. The 1073.50-1074.00 area should be hard to break and hold, but for now pullbacks are buying opportunities as long as 1066.00-1065.50 holds.

(Feb 09-12:14) mike: 18 ema on 1 min chart is trend supp, at 72 now

(Feb 09-12:22) mike: 72.50 needs to hold on a pullback here
(Feb 09-12:27) mike: small supp at 74

(Feb 09-12:54) mike: 74 good resist now, also 65 must hold to avoid another quick drop

(Feb 09-13:06) mike: The ES sprinted up to 1077.00 then dropped to 1066.25 very fast. That 1074 level is resistance that must be cleared to avoid more trouble towards 1065.00, which is now a key support.

(Feb 09-13:52) mike: i will be away for 30 min or so, a dip that reverses from 1066-1065 a buying opportunity. a reversal at 74 a short

(Feb 09-14:37) mike: as long as 67.50-66.50 is held, the mkt will be ok. if broken, e can see 58 retested

(Feb 09-14:58) mike: quick reversal from 66.25, that needs to hold to stay strong, or a drop into close occurs

(Feb 09-15:07) mike: The ES pulled back to the 1066.25 level and turned up. That must hold to avoid a poor close. The 1071.25-1072.50 area must be cleared and not reversed to get out of trouble now.

(Feb 09-15:42) mike: resist was rejected, thats key early in morning / overnight trading. its a good spot to short

Monday - February 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 08-09:37) mike: 1737.00-1736.00 on NQ reversed, early key supp now

(Feb 08-09:45) mike: under 1063.75-1064.25 the mkt a short

(Feb 08-09:51) mike: 1056.25-1055.50 must hold here or 51 area next

(Feb 08-10:07) mike: The ES was sold on the open, after dropping from the 1063.75-1064.25 resistance pre-open for stocks and fell to the 1056.25-1055.50 support. That range needs a clean break for a chance for a directional move.

(Feb 08-10:19) mike: ES needs to stay over 62

(Feb 08-10:23) mike: from resist to support back up to resist, now its the 1060.50 area must hold or bac to lows

(Feb 08-10:32) mike: 123 top , key resist must be cleared soon here , or back down they go

(Feb 08-10:43) mike: that 60.50 area needs too break too turn this down still , scalp mkt right now
(Feb 08-10:44) mike: its a scalpers mkt right now.

(Feb 08-10:54) mike: 1066.50 next resist, 63.00-62.50 supp , the mkt is not damaged as long as 60.50 isn't brken.

(Feb 08-11:04) mike: if this can hold together, take out 66.50 and hold, a target for top at 1075 area on this leg up

(Feb 08-11:07) mike: however, 1069.50-1070.25 should be hard to get
thru - a reversal near there sets up a decent short.

(Feb 08-11:13) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18 ema for trend guide on these moves

(Feb 08-11:19) mike: The ES took out the 1063.75-1064.25 zone and ran to 1068.50 so far. The 1064.00-1063.50 area should hold or that could be a short term top. IF the 1069.50-1070.25 area is exceeded then a test of the 1074-1076 area would set up a good shorting opportunity.

(Feb 08-11:29) mike: 123 top pattern 67.50 must be cleared to avoid drop

(Feb 08-11:38) mike: this should be important here, and 10,000 dow cash
(Feb 08-11:39) mike: 1747 NQ also pivotal

(Feb 08-11:58) mike: 68.00-68.50 rejected twice, NQ came off its hgh pretty fast, should be tops

(Feb 08-12:19) mike: The ES made a 123 top from the 1068.00 level and then pulled back to the 1064.00-1063.50 support. A bounce from there that fails under that 1068.00-1068.50 zone is a shorting opportunity.

(Feb 08-12:41) mike: this is it
(Feb 08-12:44) mike: those highs at 67 on ES need to be exceeded / held to avoid pullback now

(Feb 08-12:52) mike: still have important supp at 64.00-63.50 if you sold short , scalp out of part, lower stop

(Feb 08-13:07) mike: lower stop on any shorts to 65.75, shouldnt be exceeded. if breaking down. the 62.50 next target under this support

(Feb 08-13:11) mike: 65.00-65.25 new resist. 62.50-62.00 must hold, or 58 in cards

(Feb 08-13:18) mike: 62.50-63.00 trend resist

(Feb 08-13:25) mike: 62.25 is a weak bounce.

(Feb 08-13:30) mike: 62.50-63.00 should be it for the bounce, otherwise 64.50 area possile

(Feb 08-13:41) mike: The ES popped up to 1067.00 and reversed and the break of 1064 brought in more selling back to 1060.25 so far. A bounce would need to clear 1062.50-1063.00 and hold on a pullback to reverse the downtrend.

(Feb 08-13:48) mike: 58.50-57.50 supp, then 56.00-55.50 huge
(Feb 08-13:49) mike: 62.50 should not be exeeded now or trend changes.

(Feb 08-14:00) mike: an up - dn - up pattern towards 64.50 area possible

(Feb 08-14:18) mike: up-dn-up to 63.75 . it is a high if this is going to drop into test lows
(Feb 08-14:21) mike: 61.50 needs to break for the pattern to roll over

(Feb 08-14:37) mike: back to test the lows, 58.50-58.00 needs to hold, or 56.00-55.50 or lower

(Feb 08-14:53) mike: dbl bottom, but still need a push over 62.50 to erease downside momntum

(Feb 08-14:59) mike: The ES made a double bottom at 1059.50 and unless 1062.50 is broken and held the trends are still down. Support at 1056.00-1055.50 needs to hold to avoid more trouble to the downside.

(Feb 08-15:05) mike: they reversed fast from the 58.50-58.00 area. mkt acts poor, 1056.25-1055.50 has to hold today, or 1051 area is next support.
(Feb 08-15:07) mike: 62.50-63.000 still key resist

(Feb 08-15:27) mike: if still short, cover dn 56.50-55.50, or stop no worse than 58.50 59.00 on a stop
(Feb 08-15:30) mike: 59.50-60.00 is new resist here

(Feb 08-15:41) mike: if short from 59.50-60.00 cover at 58.00
(Feb 08-15:44) mike: have a nice rest of the day. avoid longs , horrrible action

(Feb 8-15:57) mike: 51 must hold here at the close, or its not good for tomorrow

(Feb 8-16:01) mike: 52.50-52.00, then 1048.00-1047.50 major overnight support - the only good spots in front of testing 1040 again. can buy there for a bounce

(Feb 8-16:01) mike: good day.

Friday - February 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 05-09:06) mike: 1063.75-1064.25 rejected pre open, key resisy this morning
(Feb 05-09:10) mike: 57 looks pivotal

(Feb 05-09:53) mike: The ES popped to 1064.00 resistance and fell 8.50 points to 1055.50 before bouncing back. The market will be under pressure unless 1064 is broken and held.

(Feb 05-10:06) mike: the ES needs to get over 1057 and then hold, otherwise the trend dn continues. 1052 needs to hold or 1043 on sp500 cash is possible on this leg down
(Feb 05-10:09) mike: 1052.25-1051.50 must hold

(Feb 05-10:31) mike: The ES dropped down to the 1052.25-1051.50 support zone and bounced nicely so far. That could be a low as long as a pullback stays over 1056.50. The 10063.50-1064.00 zone is still a key resistance to break / hold.

(Feb 05-10:52) mike: the need to stay over 59 or a deeper drop towards 56 could happen.

(Feb 05-11:01) mike: 56.75-56.00 supp must hold, or to the lows

(Feb 05-11:12) mike: 56.75 held but not impressive bounce, 5975 resist needs exceeded n not revvcersed
(Feb 05-11:13) mike: not reversed

(Feb 05-11:35) mike: 1059.75 is good resist. the action is bearish. the oversold bounnce on hold for a day or so. sell bounces that fail under 1059.75 for now

(Feb 05-11:38) mike: The move up stalled after touching 1063.00 and the ES and Dow are near the lows now. It is still the 1063.50-1064.00 area that is major resistance, but 1057.50 shouldn't be exceeded to continue lower.

(Feb 05-11:59) mike: 56.75-57.50 resist.

(Feb 05-12:19) mike: the mkt trying to find a bottom down here, but trend down day unless 1056.75-1057.50 exceeded, then held on a pullback.

(Feb 05-12:22) mike: 56.75 rejected. its even more important to break/ hold now.
(Feb 05-12:24) mike: The 1056.75-1057.50 area was tested, but it must be cleared and then held on a pullback to put a dent in the downside momentum.

(Feb 05-12:34) mike: a wedge forming too. need stay over 54 to avoid a break
(Feb 05-12:39) mike: a bounce after wedge breaks will be sold under 56.00

(Feb 05-12:50) mike: must clear 1055 soon or roll over kind of hard
(Feb 05-12:51) mike: 50.75 test coming
(Feb 05-12:54) mike: 53.50-54.00 resist now

(Feb 05-13:03) mike: they rolled over fast from 54.25, but turned back up to 54.25. need to clear that and stick

(Feb 05-13:10) mike: like yesterday, high made in first 5 min of trading, a trend day, so low should occur w/ 5 min left in stock trading.

(Feb 05-13:28) mike: The 1056.75 level was a top and the the trend down move contines. The 1052.50-1053.00 area on the ES and 1729-1730 on the NQ need to be cleared and held to dent the downside momentum. A low could be made in the last 5 minutes of stock trading if those areas are not cleared.

(Feb 05-13:36) mike: 49.75-50.25 now a pivotal resist, 1042 on ES next
(Feb 05-13:39) mike: wow, now 47.75 trend resist
(Feb 05-13:43) mike: 1038 would be next if cant bounce here

(Feb 05-14:05) mike: 2pm low, 1044.50 low on SP500 cash, a major support. that area must be held.
(Feb 05-14:06) mike: 48 area is the first resist to clear / hold to get out of trouble

(Feb 05-14:21) mike: The SP500 Cash reached 1044.50 so far, and the 1044-1042 area is a major support area. That could be a low if the ES can break out over 1048 and then hold on a pullback. If not,a retest must hold to avoid a bad end to the week.


(Feb 05-14:31) mike: 48 rejected. watch 1044 for a possible higher low. 48 key resist now still
(Feb 05-14:36) mike: IF 48 is taken out, look for selling near 52-53. test of low still in cards iff not exceeded
(Feb 05-14:41) mike: another wedge pattern into 48 resist. if 45 breaks, then test of lows more liely here

(Feb 05-14:52) mike: ES is ok if 47 can hold
(Feb 05-14:54) mike: 47 needs to hold , or its a fake out

(Feb 05-15:00) mike: 52-53 target as long as 47 holds

(Feb 05-15:10) mike: blew right thru the target, now 58.00-58.50 is a good resist, 51-50 needs/ should hold on a pullback

(Feb 05-15:17) mike: the 1055 is now a trend support, if brken then 1051-1050 should/ must hold or we dont bottom until monday

(Feb 05-15:30) mike: watch 56-50, if broken then could roll over, it must hold

(Feb 05-15:41) mike: 63.50-64.00 still the big hurdle, if long mmight seek cover

(Feb 05-15:45) mike: if thats pushed thru, 68.50-69.00 possile but a long shot. quite a day/ week. enjoy the weekend

Thursday - February 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 04-09:09) mike: 1084.50-1084.00 support needs to hold. thats major. the bounces will be sold though
(Feb 04-09:11) mike: 92 area is strong resist

(Feb 04-09:45) mike: 77.25-76.50 supp, avoid longs for now

(Feb 04-10:07) mike: must clear 79.50-80.25 area , not reverse, to get out of trouble
(Feb 04-10:08) mike: 77 key first

(Feb 04-10:13) mike: 1 min chart, 18 ema is trend resist on these momentum moves. 1075 now resist

(Feb 04-10:18) mike: 74 trend resist
(Feb 04-10:21) mike: turned at 73.75 must break to ease downside momentum

(Feb 04-10:36) mike: feeble bounce to 74 resist. if there is a pop tho, its a short

(Feb 04-10:42) mike: downside mo lessening. if 74 is exceeded , watch 79-80 fore revversal

(Feb 04-10:46) mike: if 74 not cleared soon, another push down coming

(Feb 04-10:57) mike: 74 now very important , trend day unless broken

(Feb 04-11:09) mike: 1070.50 should hold, look for a reversal back up from there to see if can turnaround

(Feb 04-11:15) mike: they tried once , 73.50-74.00 still key resist to break / hold

(Feb 04-11:23) mike: The 1073.50-1074.00 zone had been a lid on the upside, but the downside is losing momentum so keep shorts on a tight leash, as a hold under 1070 is needed to put more pressure back on.

(Feb 04-11:37) mike: stay short under 74
(Feb 04-11:39) mike: if 66.50 breaks, 1062 area next and maybe 1058-1057

(Feb 04-11:43) mike: 69.50-70.25 resist
(Feb 04-11:45) mike: if that area is exceeded then a low could be in
(Feb 04-11:48) mike: 69.25 rejected, the 69.50-70.25 now key
(Feb 04-11:51) mike: if heading lower, this should reverse here soon - otherwise a low in place.

(Feb 04-12:14) mike: 68 should hold, otherwise the 62 area still is possible. getting over that 70.25 and holding needed to turn a bit

(Feb 04-12:41) mike: we could only get a decent bounce if NQ can reverse back over 1746-1747 and ES over 1069.50-1070.25 and not reverse.

(Feb 04-12:51) mike: keep pressing the short side towards 62, now 1067.5801068.00 good resist

(Feb 04-13:05) mike: The ES broke under 1070 and stayed under 1070.25 since on the way to a 1064.75 low. That might be a low, however the ES must get back over 1070 and hold now to take some pressure off.

(Feb 04-13:38) mike: This looks like make or break in here
(Feb 04-13:40) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart = 1068.50 there too
(Feb 04-13:44) mike: 62 in thhe cards still

(Feb 04-13:52) mike: if they stay under 68 and then break the double bottom 1064.50 then 1062 should get a test. if no reversal, 1058-1057 is next. that 68.50 looks key now before Jobs numvers in the morning

(Feb 04-14:02) mike: The ES bounced to 1068.75 and reversed and the lows were all tested, but 1062 and possibly 1058-1057 id possible as long as the 1068.50-1070.25 zone is exceeded and held.

(Feb 04-14:03) mike: as long as the 1068.50-1070.25 zone is NOT exceeded and held

(Feb 4 - 14:21) mike: fast reversal, if not for weak NQ it could be a low. look to scalp long from 1064-1062 zone

(Feb 4 - 14:36) mike: The ES reversed from 1063.75 and bounced to 1069.00, which stopped the bleeding for now. Another drop to the 1064-1062 zone that then reverses back up would set up a nice trade from the long side. Otherwise, it looks like a low should be in place if the 1070.25 level is broken but if not another test of the lows is likely.

(Feb 04-14:58) mike: 66.50 would need to be reversed if another dip
(Feb 04-14:59) mike: its a short still under the 69.50-70.25 resist -
(Feb 04-15:01) mike: if / when 64-62 reached, they must reverses before thinking long
(Feb 04-15:04) mike: 66.50 logical supp, need to press under and not quickly reverse up here


(Feb 04-15:14) mike: not the perfect setup to buy, stay with shorting on bounces under 1069

(Feb 04-15:21) mike: 65.00-65.75 resist, it shouln't be exceeded now
(Feb 04-15:24) mike: 62.25 low, close, but feels like 1058-1057 area next supp if 64.50 not exceeded

(Feb 04-15:34) mike: bounce failed at 64.25, so pressure on unless thats broken and held

(Feb 04-15:55) mike: bid 58.25 to cover any day trade shorts.
(Feb 04-15:56) mike: low should be in last 5 minutes - gap day / trend day timeframe

(Feb 04-15:59) mike: 58 should be tested
(Feb 04-15:59) mike: have a nice day

Wednesday - February 3, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 03-09:53) mike: ISM Services top of the hour , 97.50 trend supp

(Feb 03-10:03) mike: 1099.50-1100.50 rejected, need to see NQ break 1774 to reversed hard

(Feb 03-10:17) mike: morning top in place, 94.00-93.50 supp must hold

(Feb 03-10:25) mike: cover 1/3 shorts at 94 or better,
(Feb 03-10:26) mike: 96.50 now good resist

(Feb 03-10:32) mike: 89.00-88.50 next target. 95.00-95.50 trend down resist

(Feb 03-10:40) mike: The lower open was reversed and the ES rallied to the 1099.50 resistance before fizzing out. It has been trend down since, and the 1091.50-1091.00 was reached. The 1088.50-1088.00 area could be seen before decent bounce, and the 1095.00-1095.50 area should offer resistance on a bounce.

(Feb 03-10:46) mike: 18ema 1 min chart is trend resist until broken

(Feb 03-10:54) mike: stall at 95 resist, but 93.50 supp must hold if going to rally back towards 96.50-97.00

(Feb 03-11:02) mike: 93.50 held, so has 95.00 needs to get over 95 and stick soon, or down they go

(Feb 03-11:19) mike: 96.50 almost reached. a pullback should hold 95.00-94.50 to continue higher, the NQ is leading the moves and has been acting well above 1774 -- the 1774-1772 area there looks like the key / pivotal zone to hold for the whole mkt together. it's not just a pullback if that breaks/ holds

(Feb 03-11:37) mike: The ES bounced to 1096.25 and stalled out, while the NQ was on its high for the day. The 1774-1772 zone must hold there, or it could turn all trends down and maybe a fast move. The bounces are not holding, so sell strength - especially a test of 1096 that fails.

(Feb 03-11:41) mike: 88.50-88.00 now tgt 2

(Feb 03-11:50) mike: 88.50 should be seen soon, staying under 93.50

(Feb 03-12:17) mike: lots off tradable moves, both sides reverse after a decent 4-6 point move loses momentum then stalls --- trends are sideways/ down until a higher high on 5 min chart that sticks

(Feb 03-12:30) mike: 20ema on 5 min chart has reversed last 2 bounces, get ovet it n hold to change trends

(Feb 03-12:59) mike: 94.50 is a cluster of 3 intraday resist numbers, and key resist now

(Feb 03-13:07) mike: 93.25 should hold now, 96.50-97.00 resist

(Feb 03-13:11) mike: 95.00-94.50 good supp now,

(Feb 03-13:22) mike: After dropping to a lower low at 1090.50 the ES turned back up and has stair-stepped its way higher back to 1097.25 so far. As long as the 1094.50-1094.00 area holds, the trends will be up. If broken, then the 1091-1090 area must be defended.

(Feb 03-13:37) mike: 94.50 was held and trends still up, need to avoid a dbl top here,

(Feb 03-13:51) mike: 123 in a 123 top there, 96.50 should not be exceeded now

(Feb 03-14:00) mike: if they pop up a bit to a lower high, then reverse, thats a short. a bit tricky w/ a sttrong NQ and weak ES

(Feb 03-14:23) mike: The ES dropped to 1093.50 and quickly reversed back up. The upside lost momentum, and 1095.50 is key resistance. A break of 1094 *that holds* is needed to cause longs to bail. damages the intraday pattern.

(Feb 03-14:26) mike: need to stay under 94 to keep press on
(Feb 03-14:27) mike: 92.00 minor supp

(Feb 03-14:34) mike: stay short under 94.50, pressure on under
(Feb 03-14:36) mike: 92.25 next supp / target

(Feb 03-14:41) mike: 92 was reversed, but need to get over 94.00-94.50 to
(Feb 03-14:41) mike: get press off
(Feb 03-14:43) mike: 88.50-88.00 next supp if 92 breaks here

(Feb 03-15:10) mike: 94 pivotal.

(Feb 03-15:18) mike: range to break, 92.50-92.00 the bottom and 96.50-97.00 on top - short better odds

(Feb 03-15:23) mike: The ES broke 1094 and pushed to 1092.00 and then turned up and tested the highs. That was reversed, and if 1092 is tested and not reversed, then a poor close would occur.

(Feb 03-15:51) mike: 94 will be pivotal on a close

(Feb 03-16:04) mike: a very volatile day, we caught most of the s/r areas, the high about 25 min into day, and others intraday. 96.50-97.00 reversal areas will be key tomorrow. enjoy the rest of your day.

Tuesday - February 2, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 02-10:02) mike: The ES popped up to the 1088.50-1089.00 zone and reversed, dropping from 1089.00 to 1084.75 (1084.50-1084.00 pivotal support) in 5 minutes and then turned back up. The bounce stalled and reversed from 1088.50 and then dropped to the 1084.75 support again. The NQ needs to get turned around, otherwise that's a bounce high.

(Feb 02-10:06) mike: they're staying over 1084. no damage done unless/ until broken.

(Feb 02-10:19) mike: 1092.25-1093.25 area is the next big hurdle on the way towards 1097-1098 zone. a pullback should hold 1088 now

(Feb 02-10:38) mike: The break and hold over 1089.00 started a run that took the ES to 1095.25 so far. A reversal from the 1097-1098 area is likely. There should be good support at the 1091.00-1090.50 area now.

(Feb 02-10:39) mike: 92.75 needs to be reversed to keep trend up

(Feb 02-10:46) mike: we're going to 90.50 if no reversal off 92.75 here. a 123 type top possible if it holds in here

(Feb 02-10:53) mike: need to hold 92.75 on ES, 10250 Dow cash, 1760 NQ

(Feb 02-11:09) mike: if 93.00 is't exceeded, then 88.50-88.50 needs to hold, else 84.50-84.00 again

(Feb 02-11:29) mike: The ES pulled back from 1095.75 but it held at 1091.00 as the market is holding together pretty well. As long as a pullback does not break the 1089.00-1088.50 area, the market will still be in decent shape and the 1097-1098 area is still possible. If that area is broken, then a top could be in place for the day at least.

(Feb 02-11:33) mike: acting a bit toppy, back in 45 minutes or so

(Feb 02-12:16) mike: 94.75 acting like 84.50 did yesterday. as long as 92 area, 20ema on 5 min chart, holds it can be pushed thru
(Feb 02-12:16) mike: 97-98 then the key area

(Feb 02-12:22) mike: 94.00 now must hold, should hold

(Feb 02-12:38) mike: the move should reverse up here 97-98.. 1103.50-1104.00 would be next if broken and not reversed. 1092.50 now a key trend supp on pullback. a break of that changes the trends/ patterns

(Feb 02-13:02) mike: that 97-98 is a shorting area w/ tight stop. its counter trend, need break of 95 to change trend, so dont fall in love with that yet

(Feb 02-13:08) mike: that could be all she wrote for the upside if 95.00-94.50 cant hold
(Feb 02-13:10) mike: more breaking down if NQ breaks 1764

(Feb 02-13:16) mike: 95.00-94.50 reversed, but reversal from good resist and loss of upside momentum right now careful with any logs , its sell zone w/ approperate stop

(Feb 02-13:18) mike: 97-98 is the zone that should top this off, if just an oversold rally is what i mean. we dont roll over tho unless 94.50 breaks

(Feb 02-13:24) mike: The ES made it to the 1097-1098 zone twice and pulled back,
however the trend doesn't change unless 1095.00-1094.50 is broken, then held on bounce.

(Feb 02-13:38) mike: 1103.50-1104.00 next upside resist, strong mkt over 1097 now, 97.00-96.75 needs to hold

(Feb 02-13:45) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18 ema. that 98 is 18ema, trend support that needs to hold, or else 97.00-96.50 a key area

(Feb 02-14:01) mike: as long as 98 holds, the strong trend up continues. if broken, the 97.00-96.75 area would need to hold or trends are breaking

(Feb 02-14:10) mike: sell a bounce to a lower high that reverses, this is too extended

(Feb 02-14:13) mike: this 97.00-96.75 needs to hold to get bounce, its also 20ema on 5 min chart, held all day so far

(Feb 02-14:25) mike: The ES pulled back to 1094.50 and turned up and made a new high at 1099.50. The market has been very strong, but will soon be due for a pullback. If that occurs, then a test of the 1095.00-1094.50 will need to quickly reverse then to avoid a sharper pullback. IF the market doesn't reverse on a test of the highs, then the 1103.50-1104.00 area could be seen on this leg up.

(Feb 02-14:40) mike: a lower high reversed, now 95.00-94.50 could be seen it looks- if so, a =reversal there, it should start a decent bounce

(Feb 02-14:45) mike: 94.50 is a target 1 on shorts

(Feb 02-14:50) mike: its not going to collapse, but 95.00-94.50 a key area.. if held/ reversed on a push lower, we stay in uptrends

(Feb 02-15:12) mike: a volatile choppy mkt, the way the mkt is acting, buy a dip that holds/reverses at 1098.50-1098.00 and turns up for a scalp long

(Feb 02-15:15) mike: that area should / must hold to keep upside intact. if we see 1103.50-1104.00 and stall out,hat could set up scalp short

(Feb 02-15:22) mike: 1100 needs to hold to keep the upside momentum

(Feb 02-15:35) mike: they pulled back to 98.85 and turned back up but out of longs at this juncture

(Feb 02-15:42) mike: 123 top to end the day, 1098 supp.
(Feb 02-15:42) mike: have a nice rest of the day

(Feb 02-15:45) mike: 97.75 target

(Feb 02-15:49) mike: we should have a decent pullback from the hihghs, shorting up there pretty good odds.
(Feb 02-15:49) mike: have a good day

Monday - February 1, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Feb 01-09:37) mike: 1078.00-1078.50 key now
(Feb 01-09:37) mike: 75.25 supp, needs to be reversed

(Feb 01-09:47) mike: ISM Index at 10am. the 76.00-75.25 area is important support this morning now.

(Feb 01-10:06) mike: 76.00-75.25 area should break
(Feb 01-10:08) mike: if there is a bounce to 1080, and it stalls or is rejected, a short
(Feb 01-10:11) mike: scalp out. mkt ok over 76.50 it looks
(Feb 01-10:15) mike: the moves are too fast right now to give you much. right now, its a decent market as long as 76.50-76.00 area holds. a 2 sided day in the works

(Feb 01-10:27) mike: The action is very fast this morning. The 1078.00-1078.50 area was reversed a few minutes after the open, but the 1076.00-1075.25 area held on the pullback. The 1076.50 level should hold on a pullback to avoid a reversal. If the ES reaches the 1084.00-1084.50 zone and doesn't reverse, like we have been seeing, then the 1081.50-1081.00 area would need to hold.

(Feb 01-10:29) mike: that could be top, 80.50 a key supp

(Feb 01-10:34) mike: they're ok over 81.00-80.50...
(Feb 01-10:36) mike: 1084.00-1084.50 here very key this morning.

(Feb 01-10:44) mike: 80.50 holding, but this pattern is bearish and the turn from just under 1084

(Feb 01-10:54) mike: trend rolled over, NQ god resist on bounces
(Feb 01-10:54) mike: 1751-1755

(Feb 01-11:02) mike: 80.50-81.00 resist on ES, 1747 NQ

(Feb 01-11:22) mike: Per last night's update, the 1074.50-1075.25 area was broken and held, taking the pressure off of the downside. However, the rally towards the 1084.00-1084.50 resistance stopped just shy of that zone, fizzling out after touching 1083.50 then pulled back 5+ points to 1077.75. It has been a 2 sided day so look for buying opportunities when the pullbacks lose momentum and begin to turn up, and the opposite with the bounces.

(Feb 01-11:36) mike: 81.50 supp

(Feb 01-11:50) mike: if 84 a top, the 1081 level must break,

(Feb 01-12:04) mike: a bounce to a lower high that reverses sets up a good short, if we get a bounce... 2 rounded tops

(Feb 01-12:11) mike: must hold over 1081 to avoid trouble now

Feb 1 - 13:20 mike: 2 sided trend up day. 1081 needs to hold on pullback, else reversal

Feb 1 - 13:26 mike: After reversing from 1084.00 resistance, the pullback held and reversed from 1079.00 and turned back up. As long as a pullback holds at the 1081.00-1080.50 area the move should continue. Just beware of a break of hat area, as it would reverse the trend.

Feb 1 - 13:42 mike: resist zone only exceeded by 1 tick... if 82.50 isn't held, then a reversal could occur. 1 more push higher heere if held

Feb 1 - 13:58 mike: the 81.75-81.25 area must hold. still getting rejected at 84.00-84.50 resist

Feb 1 - 14:05 mike: 79.75 needs to hold now

(Feb 01-14:23) mike: The ES bounced to 1084.75, just a tick over the 1084.00-1084.50 area that has been good resistance all day, and now the drop just reversed back up from 1080.25. Although the market is holding together pretty well, the highs continue to be sold so any longs should be scalps as the market remains vulnerable.

(Feb 01-14:53) mike: its been a scalpers mkt today. a drop should hold over 82 area, a run up into last 5 minutes possible

(Feb 01-15:06) mike: 3 times 84.00-84.50 rejected. very important now
(Feb 01-15:08) mike: 79.00-78.50 supp / target if 83 not exceeded

(Feb 01-15:33) mike: 4th time to resist... if broken, a pop to 87.75-88.50 possible. if not broken soon, a drop should hold 82.50 to stay out of trouble end of day

(Feb 01-15:39) mike: 4 rejections at least... ES needs to stay over 82 to close well

(Feb 01-15:44) mike: an oversold bounce day, 2 sided action, pretty tricky action, happens a lot before big moves. have a good rest of the day.

Friday - January 29, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 29-09:26) mike: 88.50-89.00 rejected once already. thats key to breaking out higher

(Jan 29-09:59) mike: The big up open was sold and the ES dropped 5 points from 1087.50 to 1082.50 and then bounced back. The reversal at
1090.00 didn't gather steam, so the 1086 level needs to hold to avoid putting in a morning top. The 1092.50-1093.00 area should be very strong resistance.

(Jan 29-10:03) mike: 87 needs to hold , or down it goes
(Jan 29-10:06) mike: nq a short on a bounce, es trouble if 87 goes

(Jan 29-10:11) mike: 85.50-85.00 supp, should / must hold

(Jan 29-10:27) mike: 1092.50-1093.00 the resist here , then up towards 98. 88.25 supp,

(Jan 29-10:41) mike: 1092.50-1093.00 reversed, , need 90.50 to break now

(Jan 29-10:52) mike: The ES turned down from the 1092.50-1093.00 zone, and now a failure to clear that on a bounce will set up a 123 type top. The 1089.00-1088.50 area is support that must hold to avoid rolling over.

(Jan 29-11:06) mike: nq a good short on bounce to 1775-1777
(Jan 29-11:08) mike: the 1086 held 2 times so far its 60ema on 5 min. needs to hold. 1089 resist

(Jan 29-11:11) mike: A bounce from down here is still a very good short, 89.50-ish

(Jan 29-11:23) mike: 1086 now good resist, that 82 area again good supp, needs to hold or back down towards 78

(Jan 29-11:44) mike: this area was key all week, as bi support then pivotal. under 83 its still short term negative

(Jan 29-12:07) mike: just stay short under 84.50-85.00 area, ugly action. 1072 may be in the cards

(Jan 29-12:27) mike: dbl bottom possible just over supp, but need to get over 84.50 and not quickly reverse- right here

(Jan 29-12:35) mike: any new shorts down here would be scalps unless they put on pressure and give a momentum move. getting over 83 and holding 80 on a dip needed to avoid more trouble

(Jan 29-12:38) mike: i'll be away for a bit, if they happen to rally back towards 84.50-86.00 zone and fizzle/stall/reverse a tiny bit, then it will be a short

(Jan 29-13:20) mike: 84.50 rejected once. this must be exceeded / held, not reversed
(Jan 29-13:26) mike: another wedge pattern to, 82.00 must hold, or a new low tested
(Jan 29-13:32) mike: if you shorted up there, 81.75 to cover 1/3 and stop to 84.75
(Jan 29-13:33) mike: 80.25 target 2.
(Jan 29-13:42) mike: stop 83.50, if 78 touched, lower it to 82 or tighter
(Jan 29-13:43) mike: a new low is possible. stay with part shorts

(Jan 29-13:53) mike: 81.50-82.00 good resist, shouldnt be seen

(Jan 29-14:15) mike: 81.50-82.00 resist still, 78-77 was a solid supp 2 tims now, a break means 72 or lower THEN reverse

(Jan 29-14:28) mike: 72 coming now if 77 goes here

(Jan 29-14:33) mike: 79 now resist

(Jan 29-14:41) mike: 77-78 could turn into the old 82-81 area and be pivotal. must break / hold over 78 now

(Jan 29-14:48) mike: 72 now needs to stop the snow ball... or we go to 68-66 zone

(Jan 29-14:53) mike: supp at the 1073.50-1073.00 zone, but........ ugly - 68-66 area if not reversed here

(Jan 29-15:16) mike: cover daytrade shorts left 1068-1066 zone
(Jan 29-15:19) mike: 74.75-75.75 resist. time to be flat , have a great weekend
(Jan 29-15:23) mike: the early drop from 93.25 to 77.75 = 15.50 pts, from 84.50 minus 15.50 = 1069.00. close to the 68-66 arrea too. take care

(Jan 29-15:33) mike: that might be it, the 72-73 is resist now

(Jan 29-15:58) mike: enjoy your weekend. next week should be just as good for trading

Thursday - January 28, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 28-10:07) mike: The ES opened higher then reversed from 1 tick over the 1096.75-1097.50 resistance. The 1092.50 level needs to be exceeded and not reversed to avoid more trouble. Short the bounces until the market shows some strength.

(Jan 28-10:14) mike: 1085.25-1084.50 key supp. lock in some profits on shorts.
(Jan 28-10:14) mike: resist at 1089-1090

(Jan 28-10:19) mike: 1088 is trend down resist
(Jan 28-10:20) mike: 2 bounces of 3 points too, a 3rd = 1088.25

(Jan 28-10:26) mike: 88.25 nailed. thats now key, 1785 on NQ more important

(Jan 28-10:29) mike: 85.25 supp must hold, NQ dragging mkt down. need a move over 1089 to stick

(Jan 28-10:39) mike: The ES reached the 1085.25-1084.50 support zone, but this market still is weak so a move to the 1090.50-1091.00 area shouldn't be broken/ held. If it is, then the trends have changed and a low could be in place.

(Jan 28-10:49) mike: dont buy
(Jan 28-10:50) mike: 1082 area needs to hold,
(Jan 28-10:51) mike: the 20 and 60ema at 1088.75, thats the key resist now

(Jan 28-10:56) mike: The ES bounced to 1089.50, then rolled over again. This is a trend down day so far, and the 1090 level would need to be exceeded to change that.

(Jan 28-11:04) mike: stay with shorts
(Jan 28-11:05) mike: 78-77 next
(Jan 28-11:08) mike: 83.75-84.50 good resist now

(Jan 28-11:16) mike: a decent bid from down there, a low might be in, need to get thru 84.50 resist and hold now

(Jan 28-11:20) mike: if this is going to reverse, only a break/ hold over 84.50 needed. a reversal down here possible, but i avoid longs until proof of strength

(Jan 28-11:28) mike: The ES reached 1080.50 while the NQ reached 1767.00, breaking yesterday's low. It will now take a move over 1084.50 that then is held on a dip to turn the trends.


(Jan 28-11:30) mike: 1083 now resist

(Jan 28-11:35) mike: 1080 resist, 1072 supp, then 1068-1066 can be seen

(Jan 28-11:58) mike: key spots here. 1080-81, 1768-1770 nq

(Jan 28-12:14) mike: The 1081-1082 area on the ES and 1768-1770 area on the NQ must be exceeded and not quickly reversed to get anything going on the upside. Unless that happens, the trend down stays intact.

(Jan 28-12:55) mike: i think lows can be in , but must get over 80-81 and hold, not reject

(Jan 28-12:58) mike: sell em w/ tght stop
(Jan 28-12:59) mike: 78 supp
(Jan 28-13:01) mike: this is a quick out. 79 should hold on pullback.
(Jan 28-13:03) mike: 79.50-79.00 must hold now
(Jan 28-13:06) mike: i was early, 81-82 key resist here - 1768-1770 NQ

(Jan 28-13:12) mike: 1080.50-1080.00 needs to hold
(Jan 28-13:13) mike: 60ema = 82.00 also

(Jan 28-13:22) mike: mkt is ok as long as 8079.75 transition
(Jan 28-13:24) mike: mkt is ok as long as the 80.00-79.75 transition zone holds now - and 10100 onn dow cash

(Jan 28-13:30) mike: 1 min chart, 18 ema trend support

(Jan 28-13:43) mike: 1082 now key support, shouldnt be broken
(Jan 28-13:47) mike: 83.75 should hold, or it gets toppy looking
(Jan 28-13:50) mike: watch ES 2 min chart, 15 sma for trend support now, good guide so far
(Jan 28-13:55) mike: 85.25 old support, good resist it looks like, 83.75 must hold
(Jan 28-13:59) mike: short under 85.25 1773 NQ
(Jan 28-14:00) mike: 82 is cover part
(Jan 28-14:01) mike: a 123 type pattern possible

(Jan 28-14:13) mike: wedge broke, a bounce is a gift short
(Jan 28-14:15) mike: 81.75-83.00 area should be sold of reached

(Jan 28-14:32) mike: a pivotal area now, under 83 the bears in control, over 83 they rally a bit at least .

(Jan 28-14:39) mike: if 80 doesnt hold, then 76.50 possible

(Jan 28-14:46) mike: can be a buyer near 80 w/ tight stop. but still want to see better strength
(Jan 28-14:50) mike: 84.50 symmetry

(Jan 28-15:05) mike: 1083.00-1082.00 pivotal in last hour, the upside intact unless broken.

(Jan 28-15:12) mike: 1088.50-1089.50 resist. supp at 85.00-84.50 needs to hold

(Jan 28-15:16) mike: 82.50-82.00 needs to hold, or the move fizzled and bthe drop into late action

(Jan 28-15:27) mike: bernanke confirmation bounce, the 82.50 very important to hold in my work

(Jan 28-15:42) mike: 1088.50--1089.50 to sell in to
(Jan 28-15:43) mike: fast move, still applies
(Jan 28-15:46) mike: this channel pattern needs to stay over 85

(Jan 28-15:56) mike: 80.50-80.00 supp
(Jan 28-15:58) mike: bounce off 80.50 needs to get over 82.50, else not good pattern. another day with good volatility. have a great rest of the day.

Wednesday - January 27, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 27-09:14) mike: resist 86.00,
(Jan 27-09:16) mike: out at 84.75

(Jan 27-09:52) mike: 1091.00-1091.75 rejection

(Jan 27-09:59) mike: covering part at 86 or better
(Jan 27-10:01) mike: 86.50 or better
(Jan 27-10:01) mike: 1089 should not be exceeded
(Jan 27-10:02) mike: 82-81 target if keeps going, trail stop

(Jan 27-10:11) mike: 87.50 key resist now
(Jan 27-10:13) mike: 82-81 target, will keep lower stop on part
(Jan 27-10:16) mike: 85.50 now resist

(Jan 27-10:20) mike: 84.50-85.50 resist. target met, but might be more

(Jan 27-10:30) mike: The ES reversed from just under the 1091.00-1091.75 initial resistance and dropped to the 1081.00 support so far. The reversal from that area keeps the market from a bigger break down short term, however unless the initial resistance is broken and held, the market will be vulnerable.

(Jan 27-10:34) mike: poor action, needs to get over 87.50 to get out of trouble here

(Jan 27-10:49) mike: NQ needs to get over 1802 resist, or the mkt will stay under pressure
(Jan 27-10:51) mike: a big cluster of numbers there now. the 82-81 area held, but no gusto on the bounces so far

(Jan 27-11:00) mike: 86.50-86.00 needs to hold now

(Jan 27-11:15) mike: The ES made a little double bottom at the 1082-1081 key zone and bounced to 1088.50 before fizzling out. The 1082-1081 area needs to be reversed again, otherwise the downside can get momentum.

(Jan 27-11:21) mike: that 84 level was/ is key for getting out of this range. 1089.75-1090.50 now key resist to break/ hold

(Jan 27-11:48) mike: kind of a wedge, acting ok but the 84 level needs to hold or reverse right away. a pop to 1089 possible

(Jan 27-11:57) mike: The ES dropped to 1084.00 and reversed up but the 1087.50-1088.00 area has been a lid. A break/ hold of ether zone is needed to break the current range.

(Jan 27-12:13) mike: triangle broke, short a pop
(Jan 27-12:15) mike: should see 85.00-84.50
(Jan 27-12:16) mike: maye more, under 87 a short

(Jan 27-12:21) mike: The bounces still are not holding, and there are too many eager buyers at the 1082-1081 area. So, that could be taken out and push the ES towards 1077 area. The bounces are still shorts unless 1087.50-1088.00 is exceeded and held on a pullback.

(Jan 27-12:38) mike: should break on a 3rd test
(Jan 27-12:41) mike: when a wedge pattern breaks, there usually is a bounce back to the area of the breakdown. 1086 now key resist down here

(Jan 27-12:50) mike: taking out the low here i think
(Jan 27-12:50) mike: 84.50-85.25 resist

(Jan 27-13:05) mike: buyers beware. 84.00-84.50 resist must be cleared/ held

(Jan 27-13:12) mike: 84.50 rejected, 82.50 must break tho now soon - NQ more active, easier trade fyi

(Jan 27-13:17) mike: 1080 magnet i think
(Jan 27-13:18) mike: stop out the buyers from early, then reverse or just collapse

(Jan 27-13:40) mike: The last drop took the ES to 1081.75, and short covering pushed them back to the 1084.50 resistance area. The market has been plenty volatile, so after the Fed release expect the initial action to move in both directions, and then a choppy trend should appear if it turns into a non-event. Next update will be tonight.

(Jan 27-13:49) mike: fyi, if i can i will update here after fed release

(Jan 27-14:26) mike: 1077.50-1076.50 needs to hold on test of lows, else 1068-1066 . 1085 resist
(Jan 27-14:28) mike: 82-81 back to being kep support. THEN the 77 area if broken

(Jan 27-14:41) mike: 86-85 good support,

(Jan 27-14:46) mike: 89 needs to hold , else 1087.50 or lower tested

(Jan 27-14:54) mike: 87.50 should hold now to finish well ... tho a 123 top could set up

(Jan 27-15:06) mike: got the 123. 91.25 shouldnt be exceeded, 87.50 is ''must hold''
(Jan 27-15:09) mike: 1084.50 is next supp here

(Jan 27-15:30) mike: 1089 now pivotal. there is a good bid to the mkt, so buy dips over 84.50
(Jan 27-15:30) mike: over 1089. 84.50 key sup, wont see it

(Jan 27-15:39) mike: 92.50 now supp/ a pullback up here likely,

(Jan 27-15:46) mike: 93.50 trend supp into close
(Jan 27-15:46) mike: have a good rest of the day

Tuesday - January 26, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 26, 2010 10:13 mike: The lower open turned up from the 1087.00-1086.25 zone and closed the gap at 1091.75, and then sold off to 1086.50 to test the low. The reversal had some gusto, so that 1086.50 level must hold. A pullback should hold 1092.00-1091.50 to stay in uptrend.

Jan 26, 2010 10:22 mike: 93.50 trennd support, key area here

(Jan 26-10:30) mike: 95.50 reversed per last night update, supp at 92 must hold

(Jan 26-10:41) mike: to avoid turning bad they must rally from right here at 1092. even if they do, the move will be sold

(Jan 26-10:50) mike: that could be it, need to get over 95.50 and not reverse...

Jan 26-11:17) mike: The ES reversed after stalling near the 1095.50 level, and the pullback then reversed from 1 tick under the 1092.00-1091.50 area. A bit like yesterday, as the 1091.50 level needs to hold, or be quickly reversed, to avoid a break to the down side. A hold over 1095.50 is needed to get anything going on the upside.

(Jan 26-11:32) mike: 1094.50 needs to break, otherwise trends stay up - NQ holding this up

(Jan 26-11:42) mike: 95.50-95.00 support

(Jan 26-11:55) mike: 96.50 should / must hold now
(Jan 26-11:59) mike: sell a pop, a high in it looks


(Jan 26-12:10) mike: The ES took out 1095.50 and that held on a dip, but now the ES is close to the 1099.00-1099.50 zone. If that's exceeded we will have an outside day, and then the 1095.50 area is now a key support area that must be defended.

(Jan 26-12:18) mike: 123 top pattern
(Jan 26-12:19) mike: need to break 95.50 for confirmation

(Jan 26-12:26) mike: the NQ is really doing well this morning, but good resist 1821-ish. careful long up here, but nothing bad happens unless 1095.50 broken

(Jan 26-12:34) mike: NQ rejected 1821, thts a sell area tight stop

(Jan 26-12:38) mike: back off shorting,
(Jan 26-12:39) mike: 1101 is target on ES as long as 1098 is held

(Jan 26-12:53) mike: if 1098.50-1098.00 breaks, then things change but trend up until then

(Jan 26-13:14) mike: 98.50-98.00 held but the move running out of gas , 95.50 now must hold on a drop to avoid a top. watch for reversal around 1099.50-1100

(Jan 26-13:20) mike: 1098.25-1098.75 resist

(Jan 26-13:42) mike: 98.75 small rejection, but need to break 95.50 to roll over. a 123 type top posible if 98.75 exceeded

(Jan 26-14:00) mike: 1099 needs to hold now.
(Jan 26-14:05) mike: that should be a dbl / 123 top. a short w/ stop just over the highs, 1099.25 really shouldnt be exceeded

(Jan 26-14:13) mike: The ES rejected 1100 twice, so a double top could be in place. A reversal up from a test of 1095.50 is possible, but that must hold to avoid a trend change.

(Jan 26-14:27) mike: if short take some profit at 95.75-94.75 area , trail a stop

(Jan 26-14:32) mike: 95.50 pivotal here, 1097.50 shouldn't be exceeded if headed lower still

(Jan 26-14:39) mike: 96.75 is good resist now, 1815-16 NQ

(Jan 26-14:46) mike: The market rolled over and now the ES needs to break/ hold over 1096.75-1097.75 to avoid a poor close.

(Jan 26-15:04) mike: no move over 97.75 , must happen soon
(Jan 26-15:05) mike: or back to 95 or so

(Jan 26-15:12) mike: 92.50-92.00 possible

(Jan 26-15:25) mike: 92.00 reached, now 95.00-95.50 resist

(Jan 26-15:33) mike: 1089 , then 86 is very key

(Jan 26-15:40) mike: 92.50 shouldnt be exceeded

(Jan 26-15:47) mike: 89.75-90.50 now resist. if short from higher up, keeping part to 1082-1081 zone

(Jan 26-15:54) mike: 1092.00-1092.50 resist now, have a good rest of the day

Monday - January 25, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 25-09:15) mike: 1097 needs to hold the first pullback, or 1094-1093 better supp

(Jan 25-09:58) mike: 60ema = 1099.00 - pressure on under 99

(Jan 25-10:05) mike: stay short under 99, but look for reversal near 94-92 area
(Jan 25-10:07) mike: take partial profit on short at 93 or better
(Jan 25-10:08) mike: this area. 94 or better
(Jan 25-10:09) mike: NQ has been leading, 1802 there needs to hold

(Jan 25-10:18) mike: The early strength reversed from just over the 1097.50-1098.50 zone and dropped to 1091.75 so far. The 1096.50 is new resistance, and that 1099 area needs to be exceeded to avoid a retest of the Friday lows.

(Jan 25-10:37) mike: 94 need to hold, else lows tested / broken

(Jan 25-10:57) mike: triangle pattern in the making. 98.00-98.75 cleared and held to break out upside, 1092 on bottom

(Jan 25-11:06) mike: 1090.00-1089.00 on this, or further

(Jan 25-11:16) mike: 94.00-94.50 resist

(Jan 25-11:35) mike: The ES bounced back to 1097.25, but that didn't stick and new lows were made. It is trend down unless the 1095-1096 area is exceeded, then held on a pullback.

(Jan 25-11:49) mike: 92.50 has been pivotal today, it needs break / hold over to change

(Jan 25-12:07) mike: 1096 also = 60ema, a pullback likely

(Jan 25-12:15) mike: 96 tagged, rejected... 94.50-94.00 must break to roll over

(Jan 25-12:28) mike: over 1095.50 ES is ok, a grind higher to test high possible if that holds

(Jan 25-12:40) mike: dips can be bought, a hold of 1094.50 needed
(Jan 25-12:42) mike: The 1095-1096 zone was pushed through, and the trends are up as long as 1094.50 holds on a pullback.

(Jan 25-12:48) mike: 1099-1100 will be potential reversal area if grind higher / or pop up then reversed. otherwise 1104 area next / key

(Jan 25-12:50) mike: the 1096 needs to hold now it looks

(Jan 25-12:57) mike: if 96 breaks, then short a bounce that follows. that is key right now , 1802.5 on NQ
(Jan 25-13:00) mike: wedge pattern , dow rolling over
(Jan 25-13:03) mike: will see if 96 breaks before looking short.
(Jan 25-13:07) mike: any bounce a short, stop over 97.50
(Jan 25-13:10) mike: 34.25 supp
(Jan 25-13:16) mike: that 1096.50 area here should be it for a bounce if heading lower, 97.50 shouldn't break on this pop
(Jan 25-13:17) mike: scalp trade , so thin n slow here

(Jan 25-13:31) mike: the bounces aren't going to stick up here , but could still hold 1094

(Jan 25-13:40) mike: if 94.50 supp breaks, then small supp at 93.50, then the 1092 pivotal area.

(Jan 25-13:47) mike: The 1094.50 level held however the 1097.75 high was quickly reversed so beware of another reversal near the highs. A break of 1094.50 that is not quickly reversed would turn the trends back down.

(Jan 25-14:19) mike: NQ the stronger like the morning. it has support at 1805 now that needs to hold to keep the mkt up

(Jan 25-14:37) mike: lots of resist at 97.75, short under that

(Jan 25-14:49) mike: must break out soon, the drops are holding 94.50, mkt in up mode over that on a dip. if broken, and no quick reversal, pressure back on the downside.

(Jan 25-14:52) mike: 97.50 supp now

(Jan 25-14:59) mike: The 1095.50 level was held on the last pullback and the market is testing the early highs. A pullback now must hold 1096 on the ES to keep the upside from reversing.

(Jan 25-15:06) mike: 97.75-97.00 needs to hold, else a top would be in place, it should hold if this is more than an oversold bounce

(Jan 25-15:14) mike: if they topped up here , short it, nq getting skittish

(Jan 25-15:23) mike: 1095.75 needs to hold or pressure can be on
(Jan 25-15:27) mike: staying under 97.75 is negative - the 1095.50 need to hold or pattern is weak

(Jan 25-15:34) mike: 1095 ES, 1804 NQ, 10210 dow cash are all key support, on close

(Jan 25-15:45) mike: this close set up early short tomorrow, if short from higher up, might keep it overnight

(Jan 25-15:52) mike: 92.50 was pivotal, not good

(Jan 25-16:03) mike: 1092.50 again looks pivotal... have a nice rest of the day.

Friday - January 22, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 22-09:29) mike: 1111-1112 resist on ES , 1847-48 NQ

(Jan 22-09:43) mike: 1111-1112 sold, scalp out part, stop b/e (stop at break even)

(Jan 22-10:16) mike: The lower open reversed but the 1111-1112 updated resistance was sold and so far 1102 was reached. The 1107-1108 area should be good resistance, and 1099.00-1098.25 must be reversed if tested or else it could be another big down day.

(Jan 22-10:31) mike: a pullback here should hold 1104 to stay ''ok''

(Jan 22-10:51) mike: must rally from 1104 or highr, if so it will be sold 1111-1112

(Jan 22-11:15) mike: moves to fast to give quick note plus trade, but a rally from over 1104 to the 1111-1112 resist and rejected there again. they need to get over 1112 and stick

(Jan 22-11:26) mike: es 1111.50 ALSO the 60ema on 5 min chart, and dow 10400 a bit above

(Jan 22-11:40) mike: a wedge pattern to go w/ 1111-1112 resist, be short under resist we had great low risk entry

(Jan 22-11:57) mike: lots of things came together for a nice entry, lock in part at 1107 por better
(Jan 22-11:58) mike: 1109-1110 shouldn't be exceeded now

(Jan 22-12:18) mike: 1105.50-1105.00 good supp, buy a test of that on a reversal up for a scalp,

(Jan 22-12:20) mike: big jump by the Tick, a fade for scalps today

(Jan 22-12:27) mike: The ES stalled out at the 1111-1112 zone, which has a lot of resistance clustered together, and dropped 6 points to 1105.50 so far, just over key support. That 1105.50-1105.00 areas could set up a scalp long, but the 1111-1112 zone must be cleared to get out of potentially more trouble today.

(Jan 22-12:37) mike: the es dipped 1.50 pts after tick extreme, but meant good buying down there. 1110.50 = 60 ema on 5 min now

(Jan 22-12:46) mike: 1107.50 has been pivital. the break is more bearish stuff. if we see 1099 today and reverse, i'll be a buyer of some calls. otherwise, the bouncces are still shorts under 1111-1112

(Jan 22-13:03) mike: 1107.50-1108.00 god resist now on a bounce, looking ugly tho
(Jan 22-13:04) mike: 1107.50-1108.00 good resist on a bounce

(Jan 22-13:46) mike: The 1105 area was broken, and the 1099.00-1098.25 zone is being approached. A reversal from that zone could set up a scalp long, but the 1107.50 level must be cleared to get into neutral.

(Jan 22-13:54) mike: watch 1104.00-1004.50 for resistance if they can bounce a bit more

(Jan 22-14:06) mike: if u just sold 1104.00-1104.50 zone, 1102.50 or better scalp part, trail stp
(Jan 22-14:09) mike: 1099.25 bid to cover the rest, or most anyhow

(Jan 22-14:18) mike: ok, just missed break and reverse of 1100, that's the set up i want to get a quick long trade. if 1104.00-1104.50 breaks, then can hold on pullback, things can get out of trouble

(Jan 22-14:41) mike: just covering some short, not buying
(Jan 22-14:43) mike: The ES could only bounce to 1104.25 resistance and dropped hard through 1099.00-1098.25. No buying unless the 1104 level is broken and held.
(Jan 22-14:44) mike: 1101 resist now

(Jan 22-14:59) mike: 1099.50-1110.25 now good resist, thats a short if reached.

(Jan 22-15:03) mike: 1097.50-1098.50 area trend down resist / a break over that might spark some short covering.

(Jan 22-15:08) mike: rejected, 1092.50 next supp, then maybe 1088 - so long as 1098,50 not exceeded

(Jan 22-15:25) mike: 92.75-93.25 trend resist

(Jan 22-15:31) mike: 93.25 reversed.
(Jan 22-15:31) mike: key fo the close,

(Jan 22-15:41) mike: 1088 breaks/ holds then 1080 target - 1093.25 resist per earlier must be exceeded/ held

(Jan 22-15:49) mike: i hope you had a good week, enjoy the weekend. next week should be fun and full of opportunity. take care

Thursday - January 21, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

Jan 21, 2010 9:50 mike: 1138 is a key resist, it is a short there if move stalls - 1881 on NQ

Jan 21, 2010 10:04 mike: 1131.50-1131.00 IS piivotal. damage not done unless broken

Jan 21, 2010 10:15 mike: good resist up at 37-38 a short

Jan 21, 2010 10:22 mike: take partial profit 1131
Jan 21, 2010 10:22 mike: 1134.50 resist, 1879 on NQ

Jan 21, 2010 10:28 mike: cover some short here, bottom of range, but trading short today
Jan 21, 2010 10:31 mike: 1119.50-1118.50 is supp, a bounce to 27-28 a short

Jan 21, 2010 10:43 mike: The early strengh was sold as a 123 top set up and a drop to the 1119.50-1118.50 zone followed. The bounces will be shorts and the 1132 area must be cleared to get into nuetral ground.

Jan 21, 2010 10:54 mike: 22.50 now resist

Jan 21, 2010 11:08 mike: 1120 resist on this pop

Jan 21, 2010 11:15 mike: 1112.50 area next supp, then majjor at 1109.50-1108.50

(Jan 21-11:28) mike: 1120 a small hurdle, then 1122.50 a key area.... short uder them

(Jan 21-11:35) mike: The 1119.50-1118.50 area broke, it has been trend down and it will take a break over 1122.50-1123.00 that holds on a pullback to get out of downtrends. A bounce that stalls out near that zone is a good short.

(Jan 21-11:38) mike: 19.50-20.00 needs to be cleared/ held - its very weak if can not do that

(Jan 21-11:48) mike: 1115.25-1116.00 resist, 110950-1108.50 is ''must hold'' - else a move towards 1104 would be next

(Jan 21-11:52) mike: all mkt reversing now. technically, still 1119.50 resist to clear
(Jan 21-11:55) mike: might be a low if 1115.50 holds here
(Jan 21-11:59) mike: they could bounce, but bounces are not holding and the environment of every dip being bought is over for now so await a run up, then sell when it stalls out-

(Jan 21-12:13) mike: a 123 bottom pattern, but this shuld fail near 1119

(Jan 21-12:35) mike: a dbl bottom attempt like yesterday, but differnt mkt now.... 1119 still neeeds to be cleared.

(Jan 21-12:50) mike: sell all bounces. this is broken intermediate term if 1112 cant hold

(Jan 21-13:13) mike: 1115 is 20ema on 5 min chart and the bounce high around 12;30et. mkt got footing for bounce, thats first resist


(Jan 21-13:36) mike: The ES reached 1110.75 and finally turned and is bouncing.The bounce should fail below or at the 1119.50-1120.00 area.If that is exceeded, then the market is out of the woods for today.

(Jan 21-13:42) mike: if 1115 breaks, then the bounce high in place
(Jan 21-13:44) mike: 1115.75-1116.25 area a short , tight stop 17 then
(Jan 21-13:45) mike: 13.50 would be target/ support
(Jan 21-13:48) mike: take 1 pt on part
(Jan 21-13:49) mike: if 14.50 breaks lower stop - 1116 shouldnt be exxceeded

(Jan 21-13:54) mike: 1 point taken , need to break 14.50 soon...

(Jan 21-14:05) mike: NQ stuck under 1852, ES dbl tops, sell under those

(Jan 21-14:30) mike: the 1113-1112 area should be a decent low - if broken and not quickly reversed, then another leg down coming. that will need to wait until this bounce stalls and reverses. the move is ok if 1115 holds on pullback.

(Jan 21-14:51) mike: avoid longs,
(Jan 21-14:52) mike: 1119.50 is ley, this can colapse if not broken/ held

(Jan 21-15:04) mike: 1113 area needs to reverse fast, else bad close

(Jan 21-15:13) mike: 1109.50 likely
(Jan 21-15:14) mike: 1117 good resist

(Jan 21-15:35) mike: resesist at 16.50-17.00 shouldn't be exceeded if weak , a short if rejected

(Jan 21-15:42) mike: 4 times tested... softens that zone up, a break starts 1 more push / leg down

(Jan 21-15:54) mike: cover day trade short if u sold 1116.50-1117.00 here at 1113.50 or better
(Jan 21-15:55) mike: great volatility. have a great rest of the day ! buyer beware right now

(Jan 21-16:00) mike: 1109.50 still possible
(Jan 21-16:01) mike: overnight watch that area, 1109.50-1108.50 to be in play for key support
 

Wednesday - January 20, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 20-09:28) mike: 1143 is key resist again today, sell bounces under that

(Jan 20-09:39) mike: cover 1/2 the puts if u bought them yestersday
(Jan 20-10:08) mike: 1136 resist now,

(Jan 20-10:29) mike: The ES dropped hard off of the 1147 double top and the bottom of the current range is going to be tested. The ES needs to bounce more than 4.50 points, and not quickly reverse, to change the trend down action,

(Jan 20-10:34) mike: cover the remainder of the puts if in from yesterday afternoon

(Jan 20-10:48) mike: 1133.50 key resist now

(Jan 20-10:59) mike: poor action at key support, 1125, then 1123-1122.50 next supp

(Jan 20-11:04) mike: 1129.50 now resist. 1123-1122 target area

(Jan 20-11:13) mike: that might= be a low for a bit at 1125.25, 1129.50-1130.00 must be cleared first

(Jan 20-12:14) mike: if 1129.50 not reversedm 1134 next resist.

(Jan 20-12:34) mike: 29.50-30.00 rejected , it must be exceeded/ held on a pullback to avoid more downsid

(Jan 20-12:48) mike: The ES bounces to 1129.75 resistance and it was rejected. It will take a break over that level that holds on a pullback to avoid more downside.

(Jan 20-13:23) mike: a double bottom, but not great looking bounce yet. if you sold 1129.50 area and still in it or part of it, bid to cover part of short at 1123.00, enter it early in case of quick turn up. a key area if the low breaks

(Jan 20-13:47) mike: 1129 should hold if this is going to continue

(Jan 20-13:58) mike: 60ema resist on 5 min chart at 1131

(Jan 20-14:16) mike: The 1129.75 level was exceeded and held on a small dip but the move has no power so short the pops under 1131 resistance.

(Jan 20-14:29) mike: 1129 must hold, else 27.50 a target

(Jan 20-14:43) mike: trends are back up as long as 1129 holds.

(Jan 20-15:10) mike: 31 needs to hold here,
(Jan 20-15:14) mike: 31.50 supp must hold

(Jan 20-15:34) mike: toppy, sell near 1133.50 if tested, tight stop

(Jan 20-15:44) mike: out at 34 or better if sold 33.50.
(Jan 20-15:44) mike: stronger close than thought, especially NQs

(Jan 20-16:01) mike: the high areas near 1135.50-1136.00 may be a good short after hours. have a good rest of the day

Tuesday - January 19, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 19-09:58) mike: 1137 now supp, must hold or trend move over

(Jan 19-10:13) mike: The ES opened at the 1131.50-1131.00 support and headed higher straight up to 1129.25 so far. The 1137 level needs to hold to keep the trend up intact. However, if the 1143 area is tested and the market backs off, that could set up a reversal.
(Jan 19-10:16) mike: 9 and 18 ema on 1 min chart good giude in these momentum moves. 1139.25 now trend supp

(Jan 19-10:44) mike: that 1139.50-1139.25 needs too continue to hold, ES in trnd day over that. 1143-1144 if rejected, a short

(Jan 19-10:53) mike: short w/ top over43
(Jan 19-10:55) mike: 1141.00 a scalp tgt 1, needs to get going
(Jan 19-10:59) mike: 1141. 25 or better scalp out of part, trail stop on the rest. 1143 should not be exceeded if trends are reversig.

(Jan 19-11:05) mike: 1139.50-1139.00 must hold - that is key support now. 1143-1144 should be about as far as this goes, or else the 1147-1148 could be tested.

(Jan 19-11:13) mike: The ES tested 1143 and backed off. That will be a high if the 1139.25 level is broken, and not quickly reversed. I'm battling the flu, the next update will be this afternoon.

(Jan 19-12:17) mike: the mkt is strong so long as 1140 is held. pullback are buying opportunities today. a weak, or 2 way action, a reversal would occur near here, NQ at resist too, but its ok over 1885

(Jan 19-12:49) mike: 1143.25 is now small suport, ES ok as long as that holds

(Jan 19-12:55) mike: The pullback from 1143 held at 1140.25 and then pushed to a higher high. As long as the 1143.25-1143.00 area is not broken, the trend up move should continue to test the 1146-1148 zone. The key area, if the market breaks that, is at the 1140 level.

(Jan 19-13:00) mike: short next pop, that rejection a negative
(Jan 19-13:09) mike: top of the range, if you sold the bounce 1143 target 1

(Jan 19-13:17) mike: 1143 also the 2nd touch of upsloped 20ema on 5 min chart, must hold or trends begin to roll over

(Jan 19-14:08) mike: The ES popped to 1145.00 and pulled back to 1143.00. That has been holding in very slow and thin trading, so a break would mean that the 1140.25-1139.25 zone could be in the cards. Another push towards 1147-1148 should be hard to hold so a reversal from near that zone would set up a short.

(Jan 19-14:18) mike: 123 top formation
(Jan 19-14:19) mike: 1145 shouldnt be exceeded/ held now

(Jan 19-14:26) mike: back to using 1143 dictate strength or top, and 20ema on 5 min chart at 43.75

(Jan 19-14:35) mike: sneeked in a top it looks,

(Jan 19-14:45) mike: Dow comig off too, short the top of the range -- under 1147-1148

(Jan 19-15:15) mike: 1143 Held, that key end of the day here

(Jan 19-15:44) mike: buying some puts on the pop 46-48 area

Friday - January 15, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 15-09:48) mike: 1144 was the key level , sell the bounces

(Jan 15-10:05) mike: The ES opened under the 1144.00-1143.50 area, then popped to 1144.00 and turned down. That started a sharp drop to 1135.25 so far. We could get a bounce, but the break down is bearish and the bounces should not stick.

(Jan 15-10:10) mike: 1 min chart, 9 and 18 ema a trend guide/ resist. take partaiil profit near 1133 supp,
(Jan 15-10:14) mike: 1135.50 now resist
(Jan 15-10:18) mike: The 1133.00-1132.50 support was tested, and that must hold now. Otherwise a break of the 1127.75 level that isn't quickly reversed nails a short term top. The 1138.50-1139.00 area is good resistance on a bounce.

(Jan 15-10:25) mike: 1135.50 still the first hurdle

(Jan 15-10:35) mike: a trend day uless 1135 broken/ held

(Jan 15-10:59) mike: stay short under 1135 for now, that must be exceeded/ held... this could be a day w/o a reversal, that would set up bigger drop, 1126-1125 area.. 1135 the key for that right now.

(Jan 15-11:31) mike: 1134 now a key level
(Jan 15-11:35) mike: 1128.50-1127.75 next / key support

(Jan 15-11:49) mike: so far this shows no sign of strength at all, not wanting to rally much, different action. if they do get a rally going, its a short when upside fizzles.

(Jan 15-12:02) mike: The trend down action is still in gear and the 1128 area needs to be reversed to avoid more trouble. If that breaks, then 1126-1125 would be next, then 1119.50-1118.50. A bounce needs to break/ hold over 1134 now to erase the trend down action.

(Jan 15-12:12) mike: first decent bounce, a retest that reverses can be a scalp long. a 14 pt range / drop fom open. just a scalp long, a bounce will likely fail.
(Jan 15-12:15) mike: not buying,
(Jan 15-12:15) mike: its opposite of yesterday action, stay w/ trend

(Jan 15-12:38) mike: 1130.50 resist

(Jan 15-12:43) mike: if 1127.75 breaks, 1125 next, then 1122 . if this caves, 1119.50 target

(Jan 15-12:49) mike: The trend down move reached 1127.50 and turned back up. The 1130.00-1130.50 is minor resistance, 1134 is now key resistance on a bounce. The 1126-1125 area is next support, with the next key area down at 1123.00-1122.50 today.

(Jan 15-13:16) mike: this is where the bulls should come in buying em up, if things have not changed.... we need to see 1130.50 and not reverse to get anything going on the upside still

(Jan 15-13:25) mike: 29.50, the mkt is s weak as it can be if can not clear tht , stay w/ the trend
(Jan 15-13:26) mike: 1130.50 is must be cleared

(Jan 15-13:46) mike: 1129 needs to hold now to avoid test of low.

(Jan 15-13:59) mike: The ES bounced to 1130.50 resistance and is pulling back. If that is not broken/ held, and 1129 is broken, then a test / break of the lows is possible.

(Jan 15-14:05) mike: NQ leading the way. this is making a small wedge pattern. that 1129 needs to hold now to avoid more trouble. i am going to be cutting out early today, enjoy the extra day off. i'll update on monday night.

(Jan 15-14:17) mike: that should be it, watch dow cash pattern on 5 min chart.

(Jan 15-14:22) mike: the highs are in. just a questin of how much of a bounce. resist right in here, should roll. anyhow, calling it a day. have a good long weekend

Thursday - January 14, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 14-10:14) mike: rejected resist, 1142.50 is now support that must hold on a pullback.

(Jan 14-10:20) mike: 43.50 needs to break to turn this down. tht is still a sell zone for now, top just over high
(Jan 14-10:21) mike: stop just over the high

(Jan 14-10:26) mike: shorts are scalps until trend changes,
(Jan 14-10:27) mike: 1143.50 still must break / hold on a bounce to put pressure on

(Jan 14-10:31) mike: The lower open was bought as the ES ran up to test the 1145.25-1146.25 resistance, which was rejected. However, as long as 1143.50 is not broken / held the trends are up and shorts are scalps. If that is broken, then a top could be in place for the morning anyhow.

(Jan 14-10:45) mike: small sup42.50, but sell bounces

(Jan 14-10:53) mike: 43.50-44.00 resist now

(Jan 14-11:23) mike: The ES made a 123 top and dropped to 1140.00 to test the low and bounced a bit. A pop to the 1143.50-1144.00 area should be reversed if that is a top in place.

(Jan 14-11:39) mike: key resist at 43.50-44.00

(Jan 14-11:44) mike: if 42.50 breaks, theycan get going dn again

(Jan 14-11:52) mike: NQ leader, its still a short under 1885.50.... it lead the rally yesterday. it is a better short today
(Jan 14-11:54) mike: The ES bounced to 1143.25 and backed off. The 1144 level needs to be exceeded and not quickly reversed to avoid more downside.

(Jan 14-12:02) mike: this pattern gets ugly if NQ breaks 1876 and doesn't reverse right away - ES 1140 the same

(Jan 14-12:40) mike: 1144 is the top of that resist cluster.

(Jan 14-13:05) mike: 1142.50-1142.00 turning to key supp

(Jan 14-13:22) mike: they're holding right where it must, if the dow cash break down thru 10697, then its wedge pattern breaks. if held, the mkt is safe for a bounce

(Jan 14-13:39) mike: as long as 1142.50-1142.00 holds, things are ok. key resist at 1146. if 1146 breaks, 1148 should be a key area where it reverses fast, or guns higher towards 1154-ish.

(Jan 14-13:50) mike: 1144 needs to hold, or back dn to 4325 at least
(Jan 14-13:57) mike: 1144 not held. 1142.50-1142.00 still very key support, but this bounce should fail

(Jan 14-14:14) mike: if failed. sell tht area
(Jan 14-14:14) mike: The 1144 level was taken out and the ES tested the 1145 area twice and rejected. The 1142.50-1142.00 area is still key support, but the pops are failing too. Look for shorts near 1145, and a break of 1142 puts pressure on.

(Jan 14-14:28) mike: 43.50 was the highs before the breakout at 1;34pm, and now support that needs to hold

(Jan 14-14:54) mike: if short from 1145, scratch it. for now mkt in uptrend unless 1143.50 broken and not quickly reversed.
(Jan 14-14:59) mike: careful for quick reversal near 1148 if reached. 1144.25 should hold if going higher
(Jan 14-15:08) mike: The 1146.50-1148.00 resistance was met, but now the 1144.00-1143.50 area should hold if the market is going to stay in uptrends and not reverse this move higher.

(Jan 14-15:23) mike: 1145.50 -114500 now supp

(Jan 14-15:50) mike: this is going to ru out of gas up here of a bit higher, 1154 area is the major resist

(Jan 14-16:02) mike: looking a bit toppy late day, look to short after hours near 46-ish . have a nice rest of the day

Wednesday - January 13, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 13-10:15) mike: 31.50 support held, but poor action. a bounce shouldnt clear 1134
(Jan 13-10:18) mike: 1129.00-1128.50 must hold/ reverse, or 1125 is next, possibly 1119.50 on this leg down

(Jan 13-10:33) mike: a 3.50 - 4.00 pt bounce tht fizzles is a short

(Jan 13-10:43) mike: The strength on the open was sold and the ES dropped to the 1129.00-1128.50 support and bounced. It looks like the 1132.50-1133.25 area should be good resistance that must be cleared and held to avoid more downside.

(Jan 13-11:15) mike: 3.75 point bounce to resist.... stops just over the zone. need 32.00 to break to roll over
(Jan 13-11:17) mike: 31.50 target 1 for scalp. then tighten stop to 33.25 at worst
(Jan 13-11:21) mike: the symmetry is broken, longs ok over 1132,.00, tht must hold now

(Jan 13-11:31) mike: The ES bounced to 1133.00 and then went sideways for about 20 minutes before breaking out to the upside. As long as the 1133-1132 area holds the market is in an uptrend but beware that this bounce will likely fail.

(Jan 13-11:58) mike: dbl top, 1135 now must hold.

(Jan 13-12:01) mike: no reversal, 1136 need to hold

(Jan 13-12:11) mike: short the next pop if we get oe

(Jan 13-12:25) mike: if you shorted this pop, scalp out
(Jan 13-12:25) mike: the trend is strong, only reverses if break under 1136.50 now.

(Jan 13-12:33) mike: The market got another dose of steroids and the ES ran up to 1139.50 so far. The 1136.75-1136.25 area is now a key support. We stil have the Beige book at 2pm, and a test of 1142 that reverses is a possible short set up if that is reached.

(Jan 13-12:43) mike: trend up support at 9 ema on 1 min chart, NQ especially. if broken, things change

(Jan 13-12:58) mike: short next pop now, near 1142. that 1141 a ttop if 1138 broken

(Jan 13-13:05) mike: The ES just missed 1142, failing t 1141.00. It's a good odds short if there is a pop to a lower high that then reverses. The 1138 area needs to hold to keep that set up alive it looks.

(Jan 13-13:35) mike: i think 1142ish is as far as this should go, the low was solid at support, the squeeze when 1133 was exceeded is a good support before that. that 1138 held twice, so good support areas on a drop, but still one more pp that reverses near 1142 is a short -- back to 1138, and then 1133 very key . the NQ really strong, so that 1138 area is a ''must hold''

(Jan 13-13:56) mike: beige book top of the hour here, the outlook above. 1138 must hold, sell 1142-ish on a reversal

(Jan 13-14:16) mike: The ES popped up to 1140.50 lower high that reversed, but the 1138 level held and that must break to roll over.

(Jan 13-14:43) mike: 39.50 now needs to hold
(Jan 13-14:46) mike: a reversal from 1142 area at 3pm could start a drop in last hour. but 1139.50 , better 1138, would need to break

(Jan 13-15:35) mike: ES should hold 1143.50 now, else back towards 1141.00. 1146.25 resist

(Jan 13-15:57) mike: 1141.75 target
(Jan 13-16:00) mike: if you shorted up near 44 or so, i'm holding a part overnight
(Jan 13-16:00) mike: have a good rest of the day

(Jan 13-16:04) mike: if a settlement under 1141, a bearish setup.

Tuesday - January 12, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 12-09:25) mike: 1137.75-1138.50 is key resist on a bounce

(Jan 12-10:03) mike: gap filled, that is good resist

(Jan 12-10:12) mike: The ES gapped down and dropped to just over the 1132.00-1131.25 zone and bounced back to 1137.75 to fill the gap. Bounces should have trouble holding, but if there is a test of the lows beware of another reversal.

(Jan 12-10:15) mike: 1138 must be exceeded and not reversed to avoid trouble, so short up near 37 and itgives a tight stop

(Jan 12-10:30) mike: should pull back, but now 1134.50 is pivotal, mkt spent very little time under the opening range before reversal at 32.50

(Jan 12-11:01) mike: that 37.75 has been rejected 3 times now. remember 1134.50 key on a drop from up here

(Jan 12-11:14) mike: rolled over. 1137 must be exceeded to avoid more trouble

(Jan 12-11:28) mike: if there is to be 1 more drop, should come from a reversal at lower high in here, 1137 not exceeded yet

(Jan 12-11:34) mike: that should be it for the bounce

(Jan 12-11:42) mike: 1135.00 or better cover part if short. still, but bounces tht stall out under 1138 stil a short

(Jan 12-12:10) mike: The market rolled over and the Dow is the only index not testing its low. There could be a bounce from down here but the ES must break/hold over 1138 to avoid a bearish pattern.

(Jan 12-12:28) mike: trend day, 1126-1125 in site
(Jan 12-12:29) mike: the dow finally tested its low, shold try to bounce, or it gets kinda ugly

(Jan 12-12:45) mike: The Dow tested its low while the ES dropped to 1129.25 so far. There is resistance at the 1133-1134 area, but if the lows brak then 1126.00-1125.00 is in the cards.

(Jan 12-13:10) mike: 1131.50 now the key resist area, trend dn day unless broken/ held

(Jan 12-13:22) mike: 1126-1125 support then 1122, NQ has key supp near 1844.00-1842.50

(Jan 12-13:52) mike: 1130.50 must be cleared/ held to get out of trend dn action now.

(Jan 12-14:08) mike: previous bounce was about 3 points, same at 1131 area.

(Jan 12-14:16) mike: need to bounce fast from 29.50, no lower, to get a bouce chance
(Jan 12-14:17) mike: no gusto, still a short on a bounce tht stalls out..

(Jan 12-14:23) mike: The market is trying to bounce, but the move on the ES was about 3 points, and then it fizzled out at 1131. A pop up towards 1133 is possible, but if that happens and the move stalls it's another short. Aside from that possibiliy, the 1129.50 level must hold or more downside is likely.

(Jan 12-14:41) mike: just be short iunder 1131 this aftrnoon, nothing will stick

(Jan 12-14:51) mike: 1132.50-1133.00 a short w/ tight stop
(Jan 12-14:52) mike: 1130 will need to hold, a buy dn there if reversed

(Jan 12-15:04) mike: if you short up there on that pop, cover part at least at 1130.50
(Jan 12-15:06) mike: hit that resist right at 3pm, and at 60ema on 5 min chart, key resist now

(Jan 12-15:24) mike: poor looking price pattern. a wedge, look for a reversal near 1132 - if reached

(Jan 12-15:30) mike: 1131.50 should be it
(Jan 12-15:33) mike: 29.50 cover part

(Jan 12-15:39) mike: 1126-1125 could be seen if no reversal soon

(Jan 12-15:43) mike: 1130 resist

(Jan 12-15:47) mike: under 1131.50 mkt vulnerable, but a reversal from 1126-1125 is a buy for a scalp. enjoy the rest of your day

Monday - January 11, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 11-09:12) mike: we'll see soon, but NQ looks weaker and might be the better short today. trades on long side should be the stronger ES

(Jan 11-09:36) mike: supp 1142.50,
(Jan 11-09:42) mike: 1141.50-1140.50 must hold, else top might be in place

(Jan 11-09:52) mike: 1144 resist, must clear/ hold on pullback.... but a bounce will fail
(Jan 11-09:59) mike: trend day possible, Vix will give 4 sell sigs on a reversal
(Jan 11-10:08) mike: 1139.00-1138.50 is a key supp now on ES, NQ could see 1875-1873 equivilant are

(Jan 11-10:13) mike: The ES rejected the 1146.50-1148.00 area on the open and it has been a trend-down move since. The 1139.00-1138.00 area must hold, otherwise the pullback symmetry breaks and a top is then likely in place.

(Jan 11-10:15) mike: stay short bounces on NQ, ES under 1143

(Jan 11-10:22) mike: ES a feeble bounce off supp, NQ a bit better, but a better bounce that stalls out a re shrot / exit any longs

(Jan 11-10:37) mike: 1134.50 supp if 1139.00-1138.50 is broken

(Jan 11-10:49) mike: 1143.00-43.75 RESIST

(Jan 11-11:01) mike: VIX hap a gap down on open, a reversal gives 5 of 5 vix sell signals in my work. . careful long, a top looks in place for awhile, bounces wont stick

(Jan 11-11:10) mike: The 1139.00-1138.00 area gave a bounce to 1142.50 but it din't stick and 1139.00 is being tested. Short all bounces today, they will not stick given the gap reversal, and the 1134.50 or lower is possible.

(Jan 11-11:19) mike: 1040.50-1141.00 resist if there is a pop with NQ dbl bottom - for now

(Jan 11-11:41) mike: turn dn from resist, key area rgt now
(Jan 11-11:49) mike: The ES went to 1138.25 after the last update and quickly reversed from that level. However, the bounce was turned down at 1140.50-1141.00 updated resistance and that must be exceeded and held on a pullback to avoid more on the downside.

(Jan 11-12:03) mike: 1141.50 is symmetrical move, resist. good supp now at 1139.50 must hold on pullback.

(Jan 11-12:24) mike: bit of a rising wedge, still must break 1141.50 symmetry to avoid break

(Jan 11-12:36) mike: broken, good odds on selling a pop up here under 41,50

(Jan 11-12:42) mike: The ES couldn't hold 1140.50 so unless 1141.50 is cleared the market will remain ulnerable. The VIX gapped down this morning, and a reversal back towards 18 there would give 5 VIX sell signals so careful on the long side today.

(Jan 11-12:49) mike: 39.50-39.75 should be strong resist if a bounce

(Jan 11-13:02) mike: 1137.75-1137.25 support must hold, else 1134.50 still possible . 39.50-40.25 now the good resist

(Jan 11-13:19) mike: stops should be just over that resist zone, was rejected once. 1137.75-1137.25 still key

(Jan 11-13:35) mike: The ES dropped to the 1137.75-1137.25 support and bounced a bit, but now must break and hold over 1139.75 to avoid another push lower. If 1139.75 is taken out, the 1142.50-1143.00 should be pivotal on a bounce.

(Jan 11-14:08) mike: NQ weak, Dow strong, ES stuck in between. ... 2 sided day, still favor short the bounces... a tgest of 113775 supp must reverse quickly
(Jan 11-14:10) mike: 1139.75 old resist needs break to head to 37.75-37.25 zone

(Jan 11-14:18) mike: The ES broke and held 1139.75 on a dip and that is now a good support area. A move to 1142.50-1143.00 should fail however if that 1148 level is a top. It's 2-sided action,but better odds on the short side under 1143 for now.

(Jan 11-14:29) mike: bounces 3.75 pts today

(Jan 11-14:42) mike: the mkt is very mixed, so don't force any trades. better when the 3 are trading in sync with each. today thats not the case for sure, NQ -12.50, ES -.50 here

(Jan 11-14:50) mike: a break thru 1139.75 needed soon if going to roll over

(Jan 11-15:08) mike: 1141.25-1140.75 supp now, must hold.

(Jan 11-15:13) mike: 1143.25 stp on shorts, 1141.50 tgt 1
(Jan 11-15:17) mike: they must break 1141.50 to start to reverse,\

(Jan 11-15:39) mike: 1143.25 now should hold to avoid drop into close

(Jan 11-15:43) mike: 43.25 must hold to avoid rolling over

Friday - January 8, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 08-09:57) mike: 1135.50 is pivotal, a big cluster of resist at that area

(Jan 08-10:03) mike: The ES dropped to the 1131.75-1131.25 support and reversed. It should be another 2 sided day and the early lows need to hold now to avoid a poor end to the week. The 1138 area should be hard to break/hold. If no reversal there, then 1141-1143 area should be sold.

(Jan 08-10:27) mike: a short, stop just over the high
(Jan 08-10:28) mike: scratch that
(Jan 08-10:28) mike: 1136 needs to break
(Jan 08-10:31) mike: a wedge type pattern breaks if 1136 breaks short a bounce if wedge breaks

(Jan 08-10:56) mike: The bounce reversed from 1137.50 and pulled back to just over that 1134.50 support. A break/ hold under that level would turn the trends.

(Jan 08-11:07) mike: 1137 area rejected 4 times now. but longs safe over that 1134.50 area

(Jan 08-11:22) mike: 1136 needs to hold now on a pullback

(Jan 08-11:40) mike: if they get back to 1137-1138, short em - scaling into swing trade up there

(Jan 08-11:52) mike: can ''scalp'' a long if 1135.00 - 1134.50 area reversed but sell it out on bounce

(Jan 08-12:24) mike: a bounce from 36.00, but risk / reward not great on long side, selling bounces that fizzle better odds up there. the 1137-1138 was rejected, it must break/ hold to get out of bearish pattern. longs are just quick scalps

(Jan 08-12:49) mike: The pullback held at 1136.00 and that shouldn't be broken IF the market is going to continue to move higher. So far the pops into the 1137-1138 area have been rejected, and the ES needs to break out over 1138 in order to run towards 1141-1143. That looks to be a great short if the market has not topped already.

(Jan 08-12:59) mike: if you got short at 1137 or better, we need a drop thru 1136 to turn weak. target 1 if 1134.75

(Jan 08-13:13) mike: cut way back on shorts, if they push thru 1138.50 its probably going for 1141-1143. ES ok over 1136 now

(Jan 08-13:39) mike: The ES pulled back to 1136.00 again and then popped up to 1138.50-1139.00 resistance so far. The market is is holding together very well so far, so no damage is done unless the 1136 level is not defended and the door is still open to pop towards 1141-1143 on the ES to finish off this move higher.

(Jan 08-14:04) mike: a bounce now to 1137.50-1138.00 that stalls is a good short... the action off the highs ws not good.

(Jan 08-14:58) mike: should have 1 more push lower

(Jan 08-15:12) mike: The ES pulled back to 1135.75, and spent only a few seconds under 1136.00. That level should hold as the last hour low, otherwise the market is changing its character.

(Jan 08-15:38) mike: 1137 now support, else a dbl top and no chance for 1141-1143

Thursday - January 7, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 7-9:59) mike: 1130 good resist, 1126-1125 must hold, else1122, or 1119.50 possible
 

(Jan 7-10:18) mike: tht 1130 should be strong, also nq resist 1872 old low

(Jan 7-10:30) mike: we are getting the weakness that was expected. The bounces
are shorts under the 1133 area. The 1131 on ES and 1872
on the NQ need to be cleared/held to avoid another quick
drop.

(Jan 07-10:56) mike: The ES took out 1131, and then held just over that on a dip,
and another push higher tested the 1135.50 high from
yesterday. A pullback needs to hold over 1132.00-1131.50 to
keep the uptrend intact.

Jan 7, 2010 11:18 mike: at high too
Jan 7, 2010 11:21 mike: 123 type top, butnot now. only if 1133 broken.

Jan 7, 2010 11:47 mike: 1132 is now a pivotal level. if broken, the 2 sided action is back in the bears hands. The NQ is a better short today, and an easier vehicle in this action for quicker trades, especially short

Jan 7, 2010 12:10 mike: 1872 on the NQ is also pivotal on NQ. so, 1132 supp on ES, 1872 resist on NQ. need one to break/ hold

Jan 7, 2010 12:26 mike: the test / new high, those are great ''easy'' scalps, at least, lately

Jan 7, 2010 12:37 mike: The ES dropped to 1132.50 after testing 1135.00 and has
bounced to 1135.25 so far. The 1132.50-1132.00 area is
pivotal. As long as that's held the market is okay, but
if broken then a high could be in place for today. The
pops to new highs have been sold and make for good scalps
at least so far this week.
Jan 7, 2010 12:40 mike: another pop that fizzles, load up, especially NQ
Jan 7, 2010 12:41 mike: need to hold in here to get a pop higher

Jan 7, 2010 01:34 mike: a pullback to 1134 should hold , the 60ema on 5 min charrt is bigger trend supp

Jan 7, 2010 02:02 mike: kinda of a snoozer afternnoon, NQ still has issues around 1872ish, ES support at 1133.75 now

Jan 7, 2010 02:18 mike: if you sold NQ at 1872, 1869 target 1, then trail stop
Jan 7, 2010 02:21 mike: scalped out, 1867.50-1866.25 support on that . all scalps today
Jan 7, 2010 02:26 mike: no quick reversal on ES, 1135.00-1134.50 should / must hold

Jan 7, 2010 02:46 mike: The 1132.50-1132.00 area wasn't challenged and a run to
1138.50 just occured. As long as the 1134.50 level holds
there is still a chance of going towards the 1141-1143
area before topping short term.

Jan 7, 2010 02:58 mike: 1136.00 should be broken.
Jan 7, 2010 02:59 mike: if it is, then a bounce to a lower high that reverses sets up a 123 top
Jan 7, 2010 03:03 mike: my things have awoken, 1137 resist, a pop there a short
Jan 7, 2010 03:05 mike: if 34.50 breaks/ hold we have a big revversal
Jan 7, 2010 03:06 mike: if VIX is at 19.19 or higher at 4pm, consider a small short overnight - also a close under 1134.50

Jan 7, 2010 03:18 mike: 37 rejected. must be exceeded w/i next few minutes or another drop will come

(Jan 07-03:36) mike: 1141-1143 area should be reversed if they don't double top here

(Jan 07-04:03) mike: have a good rest of the day

Wednesday - January 6, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 06-10:10) mike: supp 1132 need to hold to get to 1135 area
(Jan 06-10:14) mike: The ES popped up to the 1132.50 resistance and then
dropped to the 1130.00-1129.50 support before the ISM
Services release. The 1130.00-1129.50 needs to hold to
avoid a reversal pattern.

(Jan 06-10:24) mike: follow NQ's lead, a chop lower - 113250 needs to hold

(Jan 06-10:36) mike: this is as far as thy go unless going to test 1130
(Jan 06-10:40) mike: looks like they can top out on a test of high, if not a top already. sell a bounce towards a 1133 area if not short

(Jan 06-11:05) mike: both pullbacks held / turned up from the 60ema on 5 min chart, its at 1130.86 and rising, it is a level that must not break/ hold - else bigger trend starts to roll over
(Jan 06-11:09) mike: The ES pulled back to 1130.75 and reversed. This can
be a choppy day with new highs sold and the pullbacks
are bought. That 1130 area is key support and must hold
to keep the bullish pattern alive.

(Jan 06-11:37) mike: a rejection at 1135 likely
(Jan 06-11:39) mike: that is a possible top area, 1135.. if exceeded, 1141-1143 max
(Jan 06-11:45) mike: bounces into the lunchtime are often times reversed, a small pullbck that holds, or doesn't hold, 1132.75 would e a good test of its strength
(Jan 06-11:53) mike: NQ a much esier vehicle today,
(Jan 06-11:56) mike: vix under 19, a reversal on it gives 3 sell sigs
(Jan 06-12:03) mike: lunchtime move......
(Jan 06-12:03) mike: The poke up to a new high at 1134.50 was sold and lead
by a very weak NQ the market is again pulling back. A
top is in on the NQ and the ES needs to hold 1131.50
to avoid breaking this back-and-forth action.

(Jan 06-12:59) mike: A feeble bounce from 3 ticks above support, must break/ hold over 1133 to avoid possible trouble

(Jan 06-13:20) mike: The ES dropped to 1130.75, its prior pullback low and
the market is in decent shape unless that's broken.

(Jan 06-13:32) mike: FOMC Minutes at 2pm, fyi

(Jan 06-13:54) mike: if the bounces are shorts, if NQ somehow gets back near 1881 stalls, its a short. 1133-1134 on ES
(Jan 06-14:06) mike: should be no higher than 1134.25 now, a reversal there likely
(Jan 06-14:10) mike: The ES reversed up from 1131.00 and now that and
1872 on the NQ are key supports. The bounces will
likely be sold near the highs if this action is
to continue.

(Jan 06-14:44) mike: The ES reached the 1135.75-1136.50 zone and now needs
to hold 1133 on a pullback to avoid another test of
1131-1130.

(Jan 06-15:09) mike: 1133 needs to hold or the charactor changes, its a ''sell the highs'' environment
(Jan 06-15:11) mike: i'm just trading short side, this is near a biig move and upside not impressive

(Jan 06-15:31) mike: 1133 key to end day it looks

(Jan 06-15:48) mike: if short from higher levels, a carry over on part is my plan. vix near giving several sell sig, and RBI Osc was i sell mode

Tuesday - January 5, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 5- 10:17)mike: 1127.50 support now, must hold

(Jan 05-10:30) mike: The 1129.75-1130.50 area was reversed in the first 5
minutes and then a drop to 1125 was instantly reversed
and put the market in up trends. A reversal is possible
from up here, but as long as the 1129.50-1128.50 area
is not broken the trends and momentum are still bullish.

(Jan 05-10:38) mike: a break of 1130.50 changes strong trend suppot
(Jan 05-10:47) mike: NQ STILL AT YESTERDAY HIGH, ITS VULNERABLE. ES SUPPORT 1130.50 NEEDS TO HOLD

(Jan 05-11:09) mike: the 10580 level on Dow cash has been pivotal. if that is touched and turneded back, it could start a pullback. 1130.50 need to hold underneath to avoid a shake-out

(Jan 05-11:14) mike: short under 10580 on dow, that looks like the key this afternoon

(Jan 05-11:25) mike: After reversing from the 1132.75 high, there was a pullback to 1131.25 and then the bounce made a lower
high at 1131.75. The same pattern on the NQ, and also
the Dow cash could not break the 10580 level. The ES
is at 1129 support, but now must break/hold over the
1141.75-1132.75 area to avoid a deeper pullback.

(Jan 05-11:54) mike: 1129.50-1130.00 resist
(Jan 05-11:56) mike: a drop to 1126.50 must hold, Dow cash in a small channel to beware of

(Jan 05-12:22) mike: if they pullback here, 1129 need to hold
(Jan 05-12:28) mike: was a good spot there anyway . staying over 1131 needed to avoid topping action

(Jan 05-12:37) mike: a fast rop target 1126.. NQ leader, easier trade... more ticks per move in sall ranges

(Jan 05-13:11) mike: The ES bounced to 1130.75, and the 1130.75 level was
a reversal level earlier. The 1130.75-1131.25 needs
to be exceeded and held to avoid more downside. The
1126.50-1126.00 area could be seen and give a bounce.

(Jan 05-13:24) mike: 1126..50 target on shorts, at least part
(Jan 05-13:25) mike: 1128.50-1129.00 good resist now

(Jan 05-14:09) mike: NQ BROKE, SHOULD LEAD LOWER
(Jan 05-14:13) mike: POOR ACTION, 1126.50 if broken then 1124.00 next supp

(Jan 05-14:39) mike: a test of the lows that reverses is a sccalp long

(Jan 05-14:47) mike: The ES reached 1126.00 and reversed. The 1129.50 area should be pivotal. If broken, a low is in place and a test of 1130.75-1131.25, could be tested. If not, and the low breaks then 1124.00 would be seen.

(Jan 05-15:08) mike: 1128.50 supp, must hold to keep from poor action day

(Jan 05-15:58) mike: sell em up around 1135 if reached overnight. have a good rest of the day

Monday - January 4, 2010

(time stamps are EST)

(Jan 04-09:22) mike: 1121.50-1122.00 key resist here early

(Jan 04-10:07) mike: 1123.00-1122.50 supp, then 1119 is key supp. this 1125.75-1126.25 shouldn't break/ hold unless a trend day

(Jan 04-10:18) mike: The ES rallied to the 1125.75-1126.25 zone but needs to break/hold under 1123.50-1123.00 to roll over. The
1128 area should be tough to clear if there is more
strength due to weak NQ.

(Jan 04-10:32) mike: 1125.00-1124.50 is now trend-up support on a pullback

(Jan 04-10:45) mike: might be a top
(Jan 04-10:46) mike: a drop to 1125.50 need to hold, 1128-1129 key reist here

(Jan 04-10:56) mike: that 1128.25 could be it , but shorts are scalps for now. trend up still intact , the dips are buys unless 1126.50-1126.00 breaks now. need a reversal of some sort for shorts, but that doesn't occur unless 1126 breaks

(Jan 04-11:01) mike: losing momentum at resist. NQ may be a better short for a deeper pullback
(Jan 04-11:04) mike: The ES rallied to 1 tick under the 1128.50-1129.00 zone
so far and looks like it's losing momentum. A break of
1126 needs to quickly reverse or the trend up action
is being undone.

(Jan 04-11:36) mike: 1127.5001127.00 now trend up supp.

(Jan 04-11:52) mike: The ES only dipped to 1126.75 before turninng right back up reached 1129.75 so far. The move will be in trend up mode unless 1127.50-1127.00 area is broken now.

(Jan 04-12:01) mike: selling UP here for a pullback
(Jan 04-12:07) mike: NQ tried 1889 area 5times, no push thru there yet.... 1128.25 cover part short on ES,, just a scalp

(Jan 04-12:51) mike: that 1128.25 cover level now key support, NQ faileed just under 1889 -- again
(Jan 04-12:52) mike: NQ, its a short under 1888-1889

(Jan 04-13:31) mike: The 1128.25 level was as far as the dip went before
popping back to the high. The NQ needs to get over
1888-1889 and not reverse otherwise the move is now
vulnerable.

(Jan 04-13:51) mike: rolled over,
(Jan 04-13:52) mike: a pop to 28,50-29.00 a short
(Jan 04-13:57) mike: The market finally rolled over, and a bounce back towards the 1128.50-1129.00 area is a good short if the pop stalls/reverses. The 11126.50 area is bigger trend support.
(Jan 04-14:02) mike: if the 1126 area is tested/ it could set up a bounce, the 1881-1880 area on NQ its first decent supp

(Jan 04-14:39) mike: this should be about as far as a bounce goes, if not to go take out the high. IF they go over 1130, then back down thru 1130, get short with a stop just over the high. but that should be it for the bounce

(Jan 04-15:00) mike: The ES held at 1127.50 and bounced back to test the
high. It looks like the market is tentative to move
much higher. A reversal of 1130 could set up a short
otherwise the 1127.50 area holds then the matket should
be ok.

(Jan 04-15:41) mike: 1126 still a support

(Jan 04-16:02) mike: have a great rest of the day
 

Tuesday - December 29, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 29-09:36) mike: 1124 support, 1128.50-1129.00 large resist
 

(Dec 29-09:55) mike: NQ looking weak,
(Dec 29-09:57) mike: no surprise if mkt gets hit on te number, NQ leader
(Dec 29-09:58) mike: 1128.50-1129.00 shouldn't be broken/ held
(Dec 29-10:02) mike: 1123.25 is a key supp

(Dec 29-10:19) mike: we'll get this choppy action that reverses at new high, but is still ok so long as 1124-1122.75 area holds on a pullback

(Dec 29-10:48) mike: The gap up open was sold and the ES came back to just under
1124 before turning back up. A double top was just made at
1126.25 and is pulling back. That could be a top for the
morning, but if exceeded then the 1128.50-1129.00 area will
be a key resistance zone today. It was rejected before stocks
opened, and should be tough to break and hold. A pullback to
the 1123-1122 area that reverses back up could set up a trade
on the long side as that appears to be important support now.

(Dec 29-11:03) mike: pressure on if 1124 not held/reversed. low end of today range, should bounce else the pressure

(Dec 29-11:15) mike: just trade from short side today, the reward/ risk looks much better there

(Dec 29-11:30) mike: 1123.75-1124.25 resist now
(Dec 29-11:37) mike: if you got long on the reversal from support [i didn't yet] scalp out on a pop up, good resist there at 23.75-24.25

(Dec 29-12:07) mike: The ES reversed up from 1122.25 but so far has only reached
1123.75 where there is small resistance. It looks like the
1124 level must be exceeded and held on a pullback to avoid
the same range-bound drift lower this afternoon.

(Dec 29-12:35) mike: a quiet, sneaky trend down day possible if 1122 broken and/or 1123.50 not taken out. that 1122 looks very key to hold... knd of like the break dn thru 1124 early yesterday took ES 4.50 pts lower

(Dec 29-12:58) mike: a dinky 2 point bounce from support to resist so far..... tonight's update will be the last until Jan 3rd it is looking like.....

(Dec 29-13:52) mike: if a pullback to 1122 or higher, that is kind of slow then reverses back up, it's a trade on long side. same action as we've had for 6 days or so now.

(Dec 29-14:01) mike: if NQ breaks 1873, that could roll this over, if not then another push higher. pivotal spot here

(Dec 29-14:29) mike: timeframe or a move.. 1124 not held

(Dec 29-14:52) mike: The ES reached 1124.25 but didn't stay over 1124 and unless
that is exceeded, and not quickly reversed, the market will
be vulnerable and could see lower lows by day end.

(Dec 29-14:55) mike: put options are very cheap insurance for a break lower, the action is ''nervous'' and sentiment super bullish, which as contrarian is not good

(Dec 29-15:10) mike: the last low i last 90 minutes is usually a key support....
(Dec 29-15:12) mike: enjoy the rest of your day

Monday - December 28, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 28, 2009 9:26) mike: 1123.00-1122.50 needs to hold on the first pullback. 1119.50 now key support

(Dec 28, 2009 10:00) mike: top for now,
(Dec 28, 2009 10:01) mike: 1123-1122 key support

(Dec 28, 2009 10:26) mike: The strength on the open was sold about 10 minutes into
the day and the market is slowly pulling back. If the
1122.50-1122.00 area breaks, then a top could be in and
a drop towards the 1120.25-1119.75 area would be next.
The major support area is at 1117.75-1117.00.

(Dec 28, 2009 10:37) mike: 1124 now good resist

(Dec 28, 2009 10:55)mike: the 1122 area on ES, 1875 on NQ must hold or the longer intraday trends start to roll over

(Dec 28, 2009 11:08) mike: could bounce to 1124, but not stick if high is in for the day

(Dec 28, 2009 12:05) mike: very thin and slow but the 1124 resist just missed, then rising wedge just broke 10+ minutes ago short under 11124

(Dec 28, 2009 12:26) mike: The ES hels the 1122.00 level and bounced to just under
1124 resistance. The bounces won't stick so that 1122 must
hold or we could see 1120.00-1119.50 - especially in NQ gets weaker.

(Dec 28, 2009 12:51) mike: the 60ema on 5 min chart now right at the 1122.25 low here too. looks like a ''must hold'' or 1119.75 test possible


(Dec 28, 2009 10:00) mike: 1123.00-1122.50 needs to hold on the first pullback. 1119.50 now key support

(Dec 28, 2009 10:01) mike: top for now,

(Dec 28, 2009 10:26) mike: 1123-1122 key support

(Dec 28, 2009 10:37) mike: The strength on the open was sold about 10 minutes into
the day and the market is slowly pulling back. If the
1122.50-1122.00 area breaks, then a top could be in and
a drop towards the 1120.25-1119.75 area would be next.
The major support area is at 1117.75-1117.00.

(Dec 28-13:38) mike: wound up tight -- if group think lets go and follows the Dow then 1120-1119 should be tested. all if 1123.75 not exceeded

(Dec 28-14:06) mike: 1119.75 bid to cover 2/3 short,
(Dec 28-14:06) mike: 1123 shouldnt be exceeded now
(Dec 28-14:08) mike: stops trigers ob break of 1122. it resist area now

(Dec 28-14:15) mike: a 2.50 pt bounce should fizzle now
(Dec 28-14:17) mike: 1119.75 needs to hold or quickly reverse on test here... on a close especially
(Dec 28-14:19) mike: the key / gap fill / area at 1117.75-1117.00 was tested overrnight, held. must reverse from there

(Dec 28-14:29) mike: The ES couldn't get over 1124.00 and the break of 1122.00
triggered stops and more selling to the 1119.50 level so
far. The 1117.75-1117.00 area is key, and must be quickly
reversed to avoid potential trouble.

(Dec 28-14:33) mike: initial support at 1120.25-1119.75 was reason to lock in profits if short, 1122 now good resist and 1117 area should we get 1 more push lower here

(Dec 28-15:31) mike: a soggy mkt, bounces not sticking... if not for seasonal strength, this would fall pretty hard. the 1122.00-1122.75 area good resist.

(Dec 28-15:50) mike: tight range, but 1122 resist rejected. a close up here over 1122 needed to keep choppy up mode alive. have a good rest of the day

Wednesday - December 23, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 23-09:40) mike: 1115 on ES and 1840 NQ are the breakout areas, and must hold to not be a fake-out .
(Dec 23-09:46) mike: don't like the rejection, i'm small short. we also have data out in 10 min

(Dec 23-09:51) mike: 1115 needs to break/ hoild to turn the trends. i just have few puts ''in case''

(Dec 23-10:04) mike: 1112 quickly reversed, but 1109.75-1109.50 next supp / trget. 1115 resist
(Dec 23-10:21) mike: 1115 was rejected, its key area now... 1843 on NQ
(Dec 23-10:44) mike: if still weak, should stall/ reverse in here

(Dec 23-11:15) mike: very slow but staying under 1115 so far. the first hour was good trading environment, and a good setup to make the morning a good one. from here i'd be very careful with longs, the ''breakout'' failed so far, and there is no big volume follow thru. Vix can give a number of sell signals if it closes up today. i might be back this afternoon. if not, have a great Holiday

(Dec 23-12:31) mike: 1848.50-1849.50 looked like a key resist. i think that and 1115.75 on ES will be the key hurldles this afternoon. its very extended, a break back under 1845 on NQ would be bearish
(Dec 23-12:51) mike: there is a bit of a wedge / channel on the 5 minute Dow chart. it is ok over 10460 . on ES, 1114.25 is the level. if broken, the grind higher is breaking down. if that happens, then the first bounce after the break is a short. unless that occurs, the mkt is still in grind higher mode and as long as a dip holds. the upside to test highs is possible if 1115.75 taken out here


(Dec 23-13:37) mike: last update , the move has been holding at the 20ema on 5 min chart, now at 1115.43, and that must continue to keep upside intact. ALSO, the Tick has been holding at zero on the dips, except the early 2 spikes at lows. it must stay over the -100 level, otherwise things are changing. have a great holiday, see you on MONDAY.
(Dec 23-14:28) mike: things just changed, a short uo here good reward/ risk

Tuesday - December 22, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 22-09:46) mike: 1115 rejected, housing number top of hour -1111 supp
(Dec 22-09:49) mike: 13.25 resist
(Dec 22-10:03) mike: if// when 1112 is broken, held the pressure will be on and 1109.75 would be first target
(Dec 22-10:18) mike: The ES rejected the 1115.00 area twice but the pullbacks
held the 1112.00 area. As long as that 1112 area holds,
the market is ok but a break and hold over the 1115 area could get the market in a trend up towards 1118.50-1119.00.

(Dec 22-10:34) mike: toppy acting under 1116 and 1841 NQ - short a bounce towards those tops
(Dec 22-10:52) mike: 1113.75-1114.00 good resist. Vix under 20, its a good time to sell strength
(Dec 22-10:59) mike: if 1112.75 not exceeded, trends still down - still resist at 1114 if broken
(Dec 22-11:04) mike: 1112.75 must now be cleared / held to turn trends up. 1109.75 area supp
(Dec 22-11:08) mike: The ES couldn't hold over 1115 and the pullback took out
the 1112 support. There is support at 1109.75-1109.25, then
the 1107.50 level if that breaks. The ES needs to get over
1113 and not reversed to avoid a deeper drop.

(Dec 22-11:22) mike: 1113 reversed, key action here, must not fail at 1113, or door is open to go to 1109.75-
(Dec 22-11:47) mike: a test of 1111 is a scalp on the long side, just dont hang on for a whole lot

(Dec 22-12:01) mike: forget buying 1111 for now. , mkt still tentative

(Dec 22-12:53) mike: The ES popped over 1113 and is holding together. It looks
like a two-sided trading day, thin and choopy, with
resistance, and possible top, at the 1115.00-1116.00 area
and important support at the 1110.50-1109.50 area.

(Dec 22-13:32) mike: 1115 resist rejected again. looks like 1113.00 must hold
(Dec 22-13:46) mike: 13.75 must hold on dip

(Dec 22-14:16) mike: The ES popped into the 1115.00-1116.00 area and reversed
and is backing off. The key support is now at the 1113.00-
1112.50 area which must hold or else all of the intraday
trends roll over.

(Dec 22-14:26) mike: pressure on under 1114.25, 1112.75 should be seen

(Dec 22-15:41) mike: if 1113.75 not exceeded soon, a drop to 1111 possible.
(Dec 22-15:42) mike: enjoy your day

Monday - December 21, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 21-10:09) mike: 1109.00-1108.50 supp, then 1107 must hold or top in for a bit. if 1 more pop to 1111.50-1112.00 is not reversed, then 1114-1115 would be next, top of the range.

(Dec 21-10:20) mike: The market gapped up on the open and paused at 1109 before
heading up to 1111.50-1112.00 zone. A pullback should hold
the 1109.00-1108.50 area to keep the uptrends intact. It
would take a move under 1107 to turn the charts bearish.

(Dec 21-10:22) mike: resist rejected , 1109.50 - 1109supp

(Dec 21-10:27) mike: NQ top

(Dec 21-10:31) mike: a bounce to a lower high here that reverses is a good short setup. the high shouldn't be exceeded
(Dec 21-10:33) mike: that should be it if its going to work out

(Dec 21-10:45) mike: 1109.50 must hold or that it another high
(Dec 21-10:50) mike: 1110.50-1111.00 resist if weak up here

(Dec 21-11:05) mike: 1109.00 holding. Could test highs but doubt it sticks

(Dec 21-11:11) mike: The pullback from 1112.00 resistance held at the 1109.00-
1108.50 support and a test of the highs will have a hard
time pushing thru to new highs. But if it does, 1114-1115
is the top of the range. The ES needed to stay over 1109
now to avoid a potential reversal.

(Dec 21-11:30) mike: stalling out up here, Dow rolling over

(Dec 21-11:35) mike: 20ea at 1109 now too, mkt in a choppy move higher as long as that holds

(Dec 21-12:09) mike: 1111.25-1110.75 support now. 20ema at 1110.50 too

(Dec 21-12:19) mike: on the trend up days, the Tick spikes up over top bband then a pullback it doesn't fall further than about -200. if there is finally a Tick that gets to -500 or lower, the trend up dynamics are changing.

(Dec 21-12:25) mike: The 1111.25-1110.75 area was a base before this last push
higher, and that now need to hold to keep the trend-up
action in gear. If that area is broken, then a bounce that
follows would set up a short as long as the bounce izzles/
reverses under the 1112.50-1113.00 zone.

(Dec 21-12:31) mike: things changed, a boounce is now a short. a hold at 1111.25 is a scalp long

(Dec 21-12:43) mike: 1111.25-1110.75 area must hold or else the mkt gets some pressure put on downside - possibly after a bounce

(Dec 21-13:08) mike: 1111.25 must be cleared/ held to avoid more downside now.

(Dec 21-13:50) mike: The 1111.25-1110.75 area on the ES was broken and held on
a small bounce and then went to 1109.00 support. The action
is thin and slow, and in order to get turned back up the
1111.25 level needs to be exceeded and held on a pullback.

Dec 21, 2009 14:19) mike: rejected... 1110.25 supp, the moves have some symmetry

Dec 21, 2009 14:40) mike: 1110.25 holding but a poor looking price pattern, a bounce here should fail

Dec 21, 2009 15:16) mike: VIX dropped 6 percent, near low for 16 months,

Dec 21, 2009 15:20) mike: The 1111.25 level was reversed and the 1103 level is key
support, then 1097.00. The 1109.50 is good resistance.

Dec 21, 2009 15:21) mike: 1108.75-1109.25 the trend resist now

Dec 21, 2009 15:46) mike: a good day for trades at the Tick extremes. enjoy the rest of your day
 

Friday - December 18, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 18-09:26) mike: 1096 will need to hold

(Dec 18-09:34) mike: 1098.50-1099.00 rejected 94.5 tgt 1

(Dec 18-09:38) mike: 1095 held 2 times, i covered 2/3

(Dec 18-09:50) mike: triple witching day, was =very= volatile years ago, not what it used to be today a bit similar with that fast sprint higher....... it looks like 1097.00-1096.00 area is pivotal again today, needs to hold here

(Dec 18-10:10) mike: NQ has important resist near 1802.00-1803.25 , lines up with 1099-1100 on ES

(Dec 18-10:19) mike: The quarterly expiration gave a pop up open just under the
1098.50-1099.00 resistance, but the pullback quickly turned
up from 1095.00 on the ES. That area was mostly rejected
yesterday, and now today the dips are turning up quickly
from that area. So, short the bounces under 1098.50-1099.00,
and if the 1095 level is broken, then things change and the
downside could gather momentum.

(Dec 18-11:47) mike: having a problem with the room, will look into fix ASAP
(Dec 18-11:47) mike: The ES reached the 1088.50 level and this area is key.
The ES needs to get over 1091.50-1092.00 and not quickly
reverse to avoid more downside.

(Dec 18-11:51) mike: a 123 bottom, this needs to hold 89.50 or its a fake-out.

(Dec 18-12:07) mike: 1091 has been tough, if long scalp out or tiighten stop

(Dec 18-12:34) mike: A little 123 bottom set up and the ES took out 1091 (per
instant message) and that brought in more buying up to
1093.75 so far. A pullback should hold at the 1091 level
to keep from breaking down.

(Dec 18-13:04) mike: 1092.75 now support, if broken it will be rolling over.

(Dec 18-13:17) mike: a bounce back to test 1095 a short

(Dec 18-13:30) mike: The ES only pulled back to 1093 before heading back up.
The ES is close to its early high, so beware of a reversal
up here. The 1093 is now key support.

(Dec 18-13:41) mike: NQ a short under 1803, ES under 1098. it looks like up here. but a pullback should hold 1093

(Dec 18-13:54) mike: wedge / channel break. a pop is a good re entry on short

(Dec 18-14:00) mike: shouldn't break 95.75 if going dn

(Dec 18-14:15) mike: mkt acts tired. -- expiration day, they sold them into early strenth. the bounce didn't stick. same old thing it looks, bounces are shorts under 1096.50 pivotal area

(Dec 18-14:45) mike: the last hour of a quarterly expiration is a coin flip. the 1093 level held by 3 ticks, so only a break of 1093 can turn this back down. i just don't see a hole lot of upside tho
(Dec 18-14:47) mike: just don't see a =Whole= lot of upside tho.

(Dec 18-15:07) mike: mkt will be ok unless 1093 breaks, 1096.50-1097.00 resist tho...

(Dec 18-15:11) mike: 123 top

(Dec 18-15:12) mike: very late, so urge caution, smaller position
(Dec 18-15:14) mike: 1096.25 should not be exceeded, target 1094.,25
(Dec 18-15:15) mike: 1094.50 tgt

(Dec 18-15:20) mike: pattern broken, scratch out
(Dec 18-15:25) mike: obviously good resist at 1096-1097

(Dec 18-15:32) mike: 1095 resist. 1093 is still good supp

(Dec 18-15:55) mike: 1093 will be kep supp early monday. 1103 area is a short , 1093 a buy. enjoy your weekend

Thursday - December 17, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 17-09:26) mike: 1096.00-1094.75 zone reached and held pre open, a test is key in first 30 minutes, data out then too

(Dec 17-10:03) mike: that 1096.50 now key resist / pivotal

(Dec 17-10:08) mike: The gap down open reversed from the 1096.00-1094.75 zone
but the feeble bounce failed at 1099.50 on the ES and then
dropped to lower lows. The 1096.50-1097.00 area must be
exceeded and not quickly reversed to avoid more downside.

(Dec 17-10:34) mike: bounced to resist, stalled. 1096.50 still key early

(Dec 17-10:52) mike: the Dow trying to base and get turned around, 10365 resist there, the key areas on this bounce -- if exceeded, then at 10400 on Dow, 1098.75-1099.50 area on ES.

(Dec 17-10:58) mike: resist right here, and a dip should hold 1096.50-1096.00 now

(Dec 17-11:03) mike: The ES backed off from 1096.50, but then finally took that
out and the market is getting a decent bounce. The 1096.50-
1096.00 area needs to hold to avoid a test or break of this
morning's lows.

(Dec 17-11:27) mike: just scalp longs unless breakout over 1099.50-1110.00
(Dec 17-11:28) mike: still favor short side , any long is a scalp,
(Dec 17-11:30) mike: a 123 top, lows tested it looks

(Dec 17-11:51) mike: The ES broke 1096.50 and held it on a pullback, but the ES
just double topped at 1098.50 and resumed the downtrends.
The action is horrible, so short all bounces under the
1098.50-1100.50 zone.

(Dec 17-11:59) mike: lows tested, the bounce has trouble at 1095.50-1096,50

(Dec 17-12:30) mike: 3 tests of this low, if broken then 1088

(Dec 17-12:36) mike: We got the test of the lows, and its the 3rd time down here
so if broken we could see 1088 on this move. They must get
over 1095.50-1096.50 to avoid trouble.

(Dec 17-12:51) mike: 1092.50-1093.50 resist now
(Dec 17-12:53) mike: NQ double bottom, only one not to brake it early low. a new low there must reverse fast, or it will drag ES towards 1088
(Dec 17-12:57) mike: 92.50 rejected, must get back over 92.50-93.50

(Dec 17-13:51) mike: The ES dropped to 1090.75 while the NQ made a double bottom
and the market bounced back. The upside isn't sticking and
not the 1094.50-1095.00 area must be cleared/ held to get
out of the downtrends. If the low is broken, beware of
a reversal from the 1088.00-1087.00 zone.

(Dec 17-14:03) mike: low is in it looks, a pullback should hold 1093.50 at the lowest

(Dec 17-14:26) mike: 1093.50 held, but rhe pattern doesn't look great, would scalp out on this pop
(Dec 17-14:26) mike: 1095.00 or better a good out

(Dec 17-14:39) mike: shoot, a pullback to 1095 a buy of move fizzles,

(Dec 17-14:42) mike: the key will be the NQ staying over 1781-1780, it was resist and now bottom of a channel

(Dec 17-14:46) mike: bad pattern, sell all bounces under thse highs
(Dec 17-14:47) mike: The ES reached 1096.50 which has been pivotal, and the
market is in trouble unless that is broken/ held.

(Dec 17-14:56) mike: key supp holding, a bounce to a lower high that reverses is a good short

(Dec 17-15:24) mike: bounnced to lower high, the 1093 must hol, else 1088 possible sttill
(Dec 17-15:26) mike: if 1094 not exceeded/ held then the low should be made near 3:50pm, else into the close

(Dec 17-16:00) mike: if stil short, carrying part over here from higher prices. have a nice rest of the day

Wednesday - December 16, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 16-09:42) mike: trail stop on shorts 1110 shouldnt be seen, it shouldn't be exceeded if that is a good top

(Dec 16-09:43) mike: 1108 needs to break,

(Dec 16-09:53) mike: pullback should hold 1109.50 now to keep trends up. 1108 is key support now

(Dec 16-10:01) mike: topped if 1109.50 isnt held

(Dec 16-10:08) mike: broke it by 1 tick. made dbl top. Sell 1111.00-1112.00, or a bounce after 1109 breaks.

(Dec 16-10:17) mike: The market followed through to the upside and the ES
took out the 1109.50-1110.25 zone before a double top
ar 1111.00. Those should be highs for the morning,
especially is 1108.00 is broken and not quickly reversed.

(Dec 16-10:21) mike: if this pullback gets to 1106.50 area should hold,otherwise 1104 area then next.

(Dec 16-10:42) mike: a trading range right now, but bulls in charge over 1108. if there is a pop up to 1112, beware of a reversal

(Dec 16-11:15) mike: holding over 1109.50, needs to hold. NQ needs to get a second wind and push higher soon or this bounce will reverse

(Dec 16-11:48) mike: must hold 1110 20ema on 5 min chart, NQ topped

(Dec 16-11:58) mike: After the last update the ES dropped to 1108.00 and quickly
reversed and went up to test the 1112 level. That was
rejected and the market is rolling over. Before the Fed
release, a scalp short sets up if the market pops up to
just under today's highs and reverses.

(Dec 16-12:21) mike: toppy, 1108 can be tested

(Dec 16-12:38) mike: NQ better to trade when slow, more tic ranges its stuck under 1810

(Dec 16-13:43) mike: MY NQ getting ht, 1802 next there

(Dec 16-14:03) mike: 1802 helds, so be flat in front of the Fed on day trades

(Dec 16-14:07) mike: if they run up after the Fed, 1114.00-1115.00 should be watched for a reversal. if thats blown thru, 1118.50-1119.00 area.... the 1110 is the key support, it must be quickly reversed if tested/ broken.

(Dec 16-14:20) mike: sell a bounce under 1112

(Dec 16-14:25) mike: a pop tp 1109.00-1100.50 tht talls is a short,

(Dec 16-14:32) mike: 1108 cover part, tighten stop

(Dec 16-14:36) mike: 1104.75 target if 1106.75 low breaks , target 2 is 1107.25, stop breakeven

(Dec 16-14:37) mike: out of 2/3

(Dec 16-14:45) mike: strong resist there at 1109.00-1109.50... a short unless cleared / held

(Dec 16-14:49) mike: 1104.75 area next

(Dec 16-14:55) mike: The ES popped up to 1111 after the release, and is a short
under the 1109.00-1109.50 resistance. The 1100 area should
be tested.

(Dec 16-15:10) mike: 1104.50 on ES and 1797.50 on NQ should be good support. if broken, then there is a change in the way the mkt is / has been acting

(Dec 16-15:22) mike: sell NQ on a pop to 1802, ES 1107 , not sticking on bounces

(Dec 16-15:28) mike: 1103.00 small support, 1100 major area. looks like a several day afair

(Dec 16-15:46) mike: low at 3:30pm like yesterday, that must hold or else the mkt in more trouble

(Dec 16-16:04) mike: 20ema a giud in this end of day trend. have a great rest of the day

Tuesday - December 15, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 15-09:49) mike: short under 1106

(Dec 15-09:58) mike: 1103.50 quicky reversed, but still a soggy mkt, its a short under 1106.50

(Dec 15-10:04) mike: 30 min into day, the mkt is ''okay'' over 1103.50. its trouble if broken and not reversed. a bounce will be sold if they run up
(Dec 15-10:05) mike: avoiding longs for now, trading short side, NQ mostly its weaker

(Dec 15-10:10) mike: 1107.50-1108.25 area good resist if 1106 exceeded

(Dec 15-10:18) mike: reversal area here, but 1105.50 should hold on pullback

(Dec 15-10:24) mike: The market opened lower and the ES dropped to a 1103.25
low before turning up. The 1107.50-1108.25 area is good
resistance, if not reverserd then 1110 is next. The
1105.50 is support that needs to hold to avoid a selloff today.

(Dec 15-10:39) mike: no reversal unless 1106 breaks /

(Dec 15-10:43) mike: good resist at 1108.25. but mkt has good momentum, trends stay up as long as 1106.50 holds, or quickly reverse if broken.

(Dec 15-10:55) mike: key spot, if 1107.50 doesn't hold, then the mkt likely topped. NQ is the leader both
.
(Dec 15-11:16) mike: 1107.50 caught a bid, if the bounce to a lower high and reverses its a topping pattern. if broken short next bounce

(Dec 15-11:26) mike: The ES reached 1109.50 so far while the NQ lead the way
up. Unless the ES breaks and holds over the 1109.50-1110.25
resistance zone, the market is vulnerable. NQ continues
to lead the way.

(Dec 15-12:11) mike: very slow, not much to do right now

(Dec 15-12:32) mike: be short a bounce under 1108

(Dec 15-12:41) mike: The market is slowly grinding lower off the 1109.50 high
and the 1108.00 level needs to be exceeded/ held now to avoid a test / break of the 1103.25 low.

(Dec 15-13:04) mike: looks like a 1105 is a minor low, thats the breakout area after the 1103.25 low, and the buying came in

(Dec 15-13:06) mike: 1106.50-1107.00 1st resist

(Dec 15-13:16) mike: that 1107 is good resist, noting good going to happen under that

(Dec 15-13:17) mike: NQ 1807-1809 good resist

(Dec 15-13:23) mike: tops in place, should test lows if 1106 not exceeded

(Dec 15-13:38) mike: 1105.75 small resist

(Dec 15-13:40) mike: NQ is leading the mkt by the nose today, good swings both ways. 1807-1808 a very good short

(Dec 15-13:56) mike: The 1108 area wasn't threatened as the ES went to 1104.00
support and bounced. It looks like the 1106.50-1107.00
area needs to be cleared/ held to avoid a break of that
double bottom.

(Dec 15-14:58) mike: The ES bounced to 1106.25 but backed off again. That
1106.50-1107.00 area on the ES and 1804-1805 on the NQ
must be exceeded / held to avoid a late drop.

(Dec 15-15:05) mike: NQ still a dog , must get over 1804.50-180-1806.00 resist on this move

(Dec 15-15:16) mike: the 1106.50-1107.00 should be strong resist now

(Dec 15-15:19) mike: 1102 possible

(Dec 15-15:21) mike: Follow NQ if you are in ES , 1794.00-1792.50 supp

(Dec 15-15:27) mike: if you have been short, lock in some profit at 1103 or better, 1104.75-1105.5 resist

(Dec 15-15:31) mike: 1100.50 next supp

(Dec 15-15:40) mike: 1793.50-1792.50 on NQ met, it needs to get over 1798, ES over 1104 or its still bearish

(Dec 15-15:49) mike: 1100.50-1099.75 quickly reversed, but 1102.00-1102.0 resist must be exceeded/ held needs to hold on a closse

(Dec 15-16:02) mike: enjoy the rest of your day

Monday - December 14, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 14-09:44) mike: cover part of shorts from resist at least at 1105.50 or better

(Dec 14-09:45) mike: 1106.00 or better, trail stp on rest, 1108 resist now

(Dec 14-09:52) mike: 1108.00-1108.50 resist,

(Dec 14-09:55) mike: 1108.00-1108.50 rejected, need to break out and hold that to avoid top pattern

(Dec 14-10:01) mike: bid 1103.75 to cover part short

(Dec 14-10:01) mike: 1794 if in NQ

(Dec 14-10:04) mike: 1104.00 a better support, symmetry there

(Dec 14-10:09) mike: The market gapped up on the open and the 1108.50-1109.00
zone on the ES was rejected and the move reversed. Bounces
probably won't stick, but it should be a two-sided day
again. The 1104.00-1103.00 area needs to hold to get
a decent bounce, but a hold over 1108 is needed to avoid
more downside.

(Dec 14-10:11) mike: 1104.00 missed by 1 tick, NQ tagged 1794.... looks like those are ''must hold'' to avoid a break down

(Dec 14-10:21) mike: 1104.00 finally... a pop up is a short under 1106.60 now

(Dec 14-10:29) mike: 1106.50 tested, tight stop on shorts. if 1100 is tested, it could set up a buying opportunity for a decent bounce.

(Dec 14-10:31) mike: 1107 shouldnt be exceeded if going lower from here

(Dec 14-10:38) mike: 1107 not exceeded, iif it isn't exceeded soon, a drop to test/ break the lows likely before a bounce

(Dec 14-11:00) mike: The ES held at 1104.00 and bounced to 1108 so far. A
pullback needs to stay over the 1105-1104 now to keep
the market in a choppy range and avoid a break down
towards 1100. If 1108 is exceeded and held then a move
towards 1114 is possible but not likely.

(Dec 14-11:11) mike: a drop should be coming

(Dec 14-11:14) mike: no go on that.

(Dec 14-11:17) mike: its 10500 on Dow cash, 1108 on ES that are the ares that need to be taken out to get upside going. range bound between 1104 and those resist

(Dec 14-11:47) mike: 1108 must hold

(Dec 14-12:25) mike: The ES took out 1108.00 on the way to 1109.50, just .50
over the 1108.50-1109.00 resistance. The ES is in a
channel and needs to hold over 1107 to avoid breaking it
to the downside.

(Dec 14-12:43) mike: 1108 especially key support now. its 20ema on 5 min chart which the ES is ''walking up'' today. 1114-1115 is top of the 25 day old range

(Dec 14-12:54) mike: beware, a high in here very posible, if 1108 breaks, sell a bounce that stall/reverses at lower highs

(Dec 14-13:10) mike: channel/ wedge broken, bounces are shorts now

(Dec 14-13:39) mike: very similar to friday wedge/ channel break

(Dec 14-13:43) mike: After reversing from 1100.25 the ES broke the channel and
then the rebound was sold at 1108.75. That level and the
1806 level on the NQ is now resistance that should be
sold on a test.

(Dec 14-14:25) mike: 12/14/2009

(Dec 14-14:55) mike: tough call, but that 1109.50-1110.25 tough to get thru all day... not impressive

(Dec 14-15:05) mike: 11007.50 = 60ema on 5 min chart now, it has held most of the afternoon. must continue

(Dec 14-15:28) mike: 1107.50 must hold else tops up there is solid resist

(Dec 14-15:38) mike: 2 point bounce looks big, these narrow ranges soon to end

(Dec 14-16:12) mike: have a nice afternoon

Friday - December 11, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 11-09:44) mike: 1102.50-1103.00 rejected, stop just over 1103

(Dec 11-09:52) mike: 1098.75 test target 1

(Dec 11-09:53) mike: Mich sentimet rport in 1 min

(Dec 11-10:03) mike: The ES popped up to the 1102.50-1103.00 zone on the open,
and then dropped 4 points from 1102.75 to 1098.50 in front
of the Michigan Sentiment release. The quick reversal back
over 1100 is a plus, but should the ES reach the 1106.00-
1106.50 area and reverse, then a pullback / drop is likely.
The 1098.50-1098.00 area is now key support.

(Dec 11-10:04) mike: NQ weak

(Dec 11-10:15) mike: NQ a good short, itv topped

(Dec 11-10:17) mike: this could be a big move, follow NQ's lead

(Dec 11-10:21) mike: a break of 1100 and no quick reversal, then the mkt is breaking down. 1097.75 should be reached then, at least

(Dec 11-10:46) mike: The Dow is making a stair step high pattern, turning into a rising wedge. a pop to 1103 that reverses is a short,

(Dec 11-10:50) mike: just missed 1103 so far... however, wait now, better setup is if the 1101 level breaks, then the wedge would break, and the first bounce after breaking rising wedge is normally sold, then downtrend resumes

(Dec 11-10:57) mike: 1104.75-1105.00 next

(Dec 11-11:04) mike: The ES and Dow are making rising wedge patterns and the
NQ is weak today. If 1101 breaks, the bounce that follows
should set up a good short. The 1098 area is still key
support.

(Dec 11-11:23) mike: 1098.50 target 1, taking 1/3 off 1099 or better, trail stop 104 is a top

(Dec 11-11:29) mike: The wedge pattern broke and a feeble bounce back to 1101.50
was sold and the pressure is on. The NQ is still the better
short. If the 1095 level breaks, and the market doesn't come
roaring back up, then we could revisit the bottom of this
long trading range near 1080 on the March contract.

(Dec 11-11:30) mike: 1100.50 good resist

(Dec 11-11:42) mike: could be a ''home run'' on this trade, follow NQ lead, but be sure to lock in partial profits , trail a stop , 1101.50-1102.00 now resist

(Dec 11-12:14) mike: 1100.00-1100.50 RESIST

(Dec 11-12:45) mike: The ES reached 1096.25 on the drop, and a decent bounce
brought the ES back to 1100 again. The 1100.00-1100.50
area needs to be exceeded and held to avoid another drop.
The 1104 is a major resistance now, so if there is another
push higher the market has that to deal with. The 1096-1095
area must hold to avoid a bad end of the week.

(Dec 11-12:54) mike: a pullback that holds 1099.75 good for a run to 1101.50-1102.50

(Dec 11-13:06) mike: tough call, looks like Dow dbl topped, NQ resist on 13 min chart at 1793, also old supp

(Dec 11-13:09) mike: iff 1100 can hold, the mkt is okay but if broken, then a bounce is a short

(Dec 11-13:27) mike: another rising wedge, a break from here likely, a bounce after a break down is a short

(Dec 11-13:40) mike: 1100 is good supp, if broken then mkt in trouble, otherwise looks ok on a dip

(Dec 11-13:46) mike: not buying, wedge still possible

(Dec 11-13:55) mike: Dow strong, NQ weak, ES in between...... tough call, buutbshort NQ still good short under 1793-1795

(Dec 11-14:07) mike: We have a strong Dow, a weak NQ, and the ES is stuck
in between. For now, nothing bad happens unless the 1100
level is broken and not quickly reversed. If that occurs the
downside could gather momentum.

(Dec 11-14:16) mike: must hold 1101.50 else top in at 02.75

(Dec 11-14:17) mike: NQ a short under 1793-1794 resist

(Dec 11-14:33) mike: last 90 minutes , that might be it for the bounce, or 1 more pop to 1103-1104 ...... 1100.00-1099.50 is a must hold / reverse zone on a drop

(Dec 11-14:56) mike: that 1100 still key last hour for break lower. for opposite, a move up, need NQ over 1793-1794 needed

(Dec 11-15:42) mike: nice reversal on NQ at resist, this carries over into next week. have a nice day

Thursday - December 10, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 10-09:45) mike: 15 minutes in, and stalling, 1097 must hold

(Dec 10-09:59) mike: 1097.50-1097.00 support, needs to stay over to avoid filling gap near 1092 on March futures, ES H0,

(Dec 10-10:05) mike: if you got short cover some here near 97 here, trail stop on rest. if broken 1092.50-1092.00 next

(Dec 10-10:08) mike: 1099.50-1100.00 good resist now

(Dec 10-10:16) mike: 1098.50 now resist, NQ holding this from caving in

(Dec 10-10:22) mike: they need to get over 1097.50 to break the trend down pace , 1095 is the first key supp before 1092 gap

(Dec 10-10:32) mike: The gap up open stalled and reversed in the first 20 minutes
and the March ES dropped from 1101.50 to 1095.25. If the ES
makes a lower high near 1100 and reverses, it would set up
a short. However, the market will be in decent shape as long
as the 1095 level is held.

(Dec 10-10:48) mike: ES reversed at 1100, if short per the update take part profit at 1097.75 or better, 1110 shouldn't be exceeded now if headed lower

(Dec 10-10:58) mike: no good follow thru on downside yet, the 20ema on 5 min chart held on dips yesterday afternoon and this morning, its at 1096.75 right now and needs to hold to avoid rolling over.

(Dec 10-11:16) mike: trends are up as long as the 1097.75 level holds. doesn't seem like theres a lot higher to go tho

(Dec 10-11:25) mike: that could be it for the bounce. the quick pops are not sticking, so a pop here will be a short

(Dec 10-11:43) mike: pop failed, longs get nervous, must stay over 1098

(Dec 10-12:05) mike: 1097.75 tested 3rd time. that must continue to hold.

(Dec 10-12:05) mike: both sides are tradable, in this range

(Dec 10-12:09) mike: well, tht is telling. must get over 1100 n stick

(Dec 10-12:16) mike: sell bounces down to 1095, NQ especially a short under 1806

(Dec 10-12:30) mike: it should get going here

(Dec 10-12:31) mike: 1095.25 is the 60ema and the early low at 95.25, that is a key supp

(Dec 10-12:37) mike: The ES made one last pop off of 1097.75 to 1100.00, but
1100.00 was quickly rejected and the market is pulling
back. If there is another bounce, it must not fail near
1100 again or the market is still vulnerable. The 1095.25
level needs to hold or we could go for the 1093-1092 area
next.

(Dec 10-12:58) mike: IF 1100 is taken out, resist at 1102.50-1103.25 and if a reversal occurs, its a good shorting opportunity

(Dec 10-13:06) mike: if 1099-1100 is tested fet short, if its exceeded the add at r1102.50-1103.25 esist, stop just over 1103.25 resist then

(Dec 10-13:11) mike: A pop to 1099.50 was rejected, and the bounces are shorting
opportunities down to 1095, and possibly 1093-1092. if that
isn't held, then the chart will look ugly.

(Dec 10-13:49) mike: The ES went down to 1096.00, at the 60ema on the 5
minute chart, and bounced. That 1096 should be key support
today. Still, the ES needs to clear the 1100 level and
not quickly reverse to get something going on the upside.
It looks like a long shot, but if there is a sprint higher
and then there is a reversal from the 1102.50-1103.25
zone, that could set up a good short.

(Dec 10-14:07) mike: 1098.25 needs to hold if going to have a change to temporarily breakout over 1100

(Dec 10-14:19) mike: held at 98.50. 1102-1103 is a key area.

(Dec 10-14:31) mike: stair step up over 1099.50 now

(Dec 10-14:44) mike: jno hold of 1100, 1099.50 broken... just be shorting up there, it will be reversed

(Dec 10-14:51) mike: The ES reached 1100.50, but didn't stick. It looks like
1098.50 needs to hold to avoid a drop in the last hour.

(Dec 10-15:12) mike: 98.75 shouldn't be exceeded / held

(Dec 10-15:19) mike: if the NQ goes under 1800 the pressure could be on
(Dec 10-15:20) mike: should be on.
(Dec 10-15:20) mike: sell any pops under 98.50
(Dec 10-15:21) mike: if not in already
(Dec 10-15:22) mike: 1092.50 target on break of 1096

(Dec 10-15:30) mike: NQ is in bad shape, 1093-1092 should get a test
(Dec 10-15:33) mike: 96.50-97.25 resist

(Dec 10-15:57) mike: a poor chart, a few puts not a bad idea, anyway Retail Sales in morning. have a nice day

Wednesday - December 9, 2009

(time stamps are EST)

(Dec 09-09:45) mike: opening pop to 1092.50-1093.00 resist a nice short, cover part at 1087or better, trail the rest to 1078 possibly

(Dec 09-09:53) mike: The ES popped to the 1092.50-1093.00 initial resistance
and reversed about 3 minutes in and fell to 1085.00 so
far. A bounce should fail below the 1093 level, where it
must break and hold to avoid more downside.

(Dec 09-09:58) mike: resist 1190-1191

(Dec 09-10:09) mike: resist rejected/ must clear 1091and hold

(Dec 09-10:22) mike: 1088 support, must hold to get 1 more move up

(Dec 09-10:25) mike: 1087.25 supp now, if its broken then a test of the lows.

(Dec 09-10:43) mike: if the ES can stay over 1089, then the move can push a bit higher. if 1093 exceeded, then 1096 is a reversal area

(Dec 09-10:53) mike: After the last update the ES bounced to the 1090-1091
resistance and then dropped 4.50 points to 1086.50 before
turning back up. This should be a two-sided trading day
so look for a reversal near 1096. A pullback should hold
the 1093.00 level, otherwise the 1089.75 area must hold.

(Dec 09-11:26) mike: short under 1094, could roll over , Dow cassh leader/ trigger and it stalled/ rolling over

(Dec 09-11:31) mike: if they dont roll over, and 94 is exceeded, ideal set up would be a test of 1110.-1110.50 that is rejected to short . they're folling the Dow right now, need to hold right around here, 1091, to stay out of trouble

(Dec 09-11:36) mike: Dow need to hold 10286, or its a good move ftowards low

(Dec 09-11:41) mike: Dow held by 3 pts so far, take some profit at 1091-1089 area / tighten stops. 1094 shouldn't be exceeded now

(Dec 09-11:46) mike: 1092 is where the break dn got momentum, its a good / key area now

(Dec 09-12:04) mike: a bad pattern,

(Dec 09-12:10) mike: 1087.25 target if 1092.25 not broken

(Dec 09-12:10) mike: and support here breaks w/i 5 minutes

(Dec 09-12:20) mike: ''ask and thou will receive'' 1770.50-1769 NQ.00 must hold supp

(Dec 09-12:29) mike: target was 1 tick lower, but couldnt type in to cover while managing my trade, that 1088 good support tho, a key area

(Dec 09-12:41) mike: The ES couldn't get through 1092.25 and rolled over again
to the 1088.00, 1 tick over the updated target given in
the instant message. The market is far from out of the
woods, as it would take a move over 1092 now that can
hold on a pullback.

(Dec 09-12:52) mike: stay short under 1090.50-1091.50

(Dec 09-13:00) mike: should turn back down,

(Dec 09-13:02) mike: if the 1088 goes, 1083-1082 area, then the 1078.00-1077.50 from 11-29

(Dec 09-13:40) mike: keep short, NQ breaking dn now too

(Dec 09-13:42) mike: 11090.50-1091.50 was a good reentry, its now key resist

(Dec 09-13:52) mike: downside is losing some momentum, if 1086-1085 is tested and reversed, it can set up a trade on long side, just make it a scalp tho

(Dec 09-13:59) mike: not going to be a hero and buy against the trend yet,
(Dec 09-14:00) mike: stay with shorts under 1089-1090.

(Dec 09-14:23) mike: if a breakout over 1091 resist, then 1089 should hold on a pullback

(Dec 09-14:25) mike: 1777 good resist on NQ here too, key resist for this afternoon

(Dec 09-14:40) mike: tough call from here, a bottom of some sort should be in place, especially if the SPX closes over 1091 again. the 1088 low there at 230pm looks like good support, it should hold unless the mkt wants to fall to lower low today/ tomorrow morning

(Dec 09-14:42) mike: trend up over 1090

(Dec 09-14:50) mike: its a short w/ tight stop just over 92 it look

(Dec 09-14:50) mike: under 1781 on NQ

(Dec 09-14:54) mike: Prarie dog, ES a short under 92.50 , or on break of 1091.25

(Dec 09-14:56) mike: 1090.75 target 1

(Dec 09-14:58) mike: if no reversal soon, they can go towards 1095-1096 again

(Dec 09-15:06) mike: if 1095.50-1096.00 reached, and not reversed, then a move to 1100 area is a short. rigght now the mkt is ok as long as 1092-1091 holds on pullback

(Dec 09-15:12) mike: The ES broke thru the 1090.50-1091.50 resistance and the
highs are being tested. If the mkt doesn't reverse from
1095.50-1096.00 then 1100.00-1100.50 should be rejected
and set up a short as the gap on the daily chart fills.
The 1091.25 level must hold on a pullback.

(Dec 09-15:40) mike: the ES needs to close over 1091, same with SP500 cash. toppy action still

(Dec 09-16:15) mike: have a good evening, and i'll see ya in the morning

Tuesday - December 8, 2009

(time stamps are EST)